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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real worry for the Tories is if Carswell is able to tak
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real worry for the Tories is if Carswell is able to take much of his organisation with him
Back in 2005 Douglas Carswell was one of a select group of Tories who won seats from LAB. He took Harwich. Then, five years later in the new seat of Clacton, he held on thanks to a swing from LAB of 9.7%, The national swing was 5% which is a good indication of how well he did.
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Ukip: "Roger Lord has never been the by-election candidate for Clacton." (He was only ever the general election candidate.)
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·5 mins
Ukip's handling of Roger Lord is a becoming a cross between something out of Carry On script and something from Orwell.
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·8 mins
Roger Lord, ex Ukip Clacton candidate: "I had a call from the party secretary threatening to throw me out of the party if I don't shut up."
They just don't get it.
BBC ticker - and BBC Radio Sheffield @BBCSheffield 5m
Yes Carswell has, he keeps a separate record of his voters and supporters from the local tories.
So he has full access to all the information that someone needs to get elected.
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·44 secs
Roger Lord tells me: "I don't want an apology..I want Carswell to stand down. (re local association) Key members have said they support me."
Anyone else feel like giving Richard Nabavi a reassuring hug? Bless his little cotton socks.
Nothing wrong with pointing out the blatantly obvious.
Its like talking to Louise Mensch.
They are failing to realise that the totality of the Conservative effort is a broad church but they previously (and Carswell today) have singled out one particular issue because they have a bee in their bonnet about it. They don't rebel on so many other things but Europe (on which of course the entire country is divided) when their own party has one of the most coherent policies on it.
Of course it is a leap of faith that any negotiations will be meaningful but if they aren't or if voters perceive they aren't then they can just vote "Out" in 2017.
It really beggars belief.
Which is why I am delighted my candidacy in the upcoming by-election has been stitched up in the back room by the party ruling elite...
@ToryMemo: Apparently UKIP rules allow them to replace a candidate chosen by local members in favour of another imposed by the party... Democratic.
@PickardJE: Roger Lord tells me: "I don't want an apology..I want Carswell to stand down. (re local association) Key members have said they support me."
Will everyone in South Yorkshire Police resign in protest too?
Education Sec Nicky Morgan orders Ofsted inspection of Rotherham child protection and looked-after children services. #c4news
The Lord situation seems rather peculiar. One would've thought the problem might have been anticipated.
It'd be ironic if the Conservatives (or Labour) won by UKIP managing to field two candidates - UKIP Official and UKIP Classic.
"Vote for me I have some questionable military experience from central america" doesn't go well.
http://www.southyorkshire-pcc.gov.uk/About/About-Your-Deputy.aspx
Remind me, what was all that stuff about UKIP not being like other parties? Also wasn't there something about shaking up cosy cliques?
http://www.leftfutures.org/2014/08/avoiding-charge-of-racism-is-a-cover-for-patriarchy-and-misogyny-in-rotherham/
No wonder she never made it beyond the backbenches.
"Carswell is the son of two medical doctors, and grew up in Bongo Bongo land, where his parents worked amongst local communities."
It has since been altered to say 'Africa'.
I don't like Wiki jokers, but I must say they're quick.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Douglas_Carswell&diff=623193577&oldid=623162326
Wonder if we're seeing a real long term re-alignment, the permanent rise of a Lib Dems* of the Right, or if UKIP will be a one-parliament ish wonder?
*not a precise analogy but you get the point.
I think UKIP dodged a bullet.
Obviously that's not true.
So the stats had to be fiddled.
PC is so morally corrupting because it forces people to passively lie all the time to keep their jobs and actively lie all the time to get promoted.
The main reason being ukip would go from 20/1 to 1/4 to win the seat
The fellow needs to do what's best for ukip if he is serious about wanting them to succeed
James Kirkup@jameskirkup·2 mins
I really hope Roger Lord sues UKIP for violating his rights under the ECHR.
You can't campaign for a new kind of politics, and then play the game in the same way as those you criticise.
Madness, of course, but there we go. Plan your affairs accordingly.
"regrettable"
Isabel Hardman (@IsabelHardman)
28/08/2014 12:12
The Tory whips have emailed MPs with their line to take on Carswell. I've seen it specc.ie/1lhlAhf
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·22 secs
I've solved the riddle of why Roger Lord was in Nicaragua being assaulted by teenage gunmen.
Roger Lord: "I used to be on the Conservative party candidate list....I'm sure they would welcome me back with open arms."
Oh please please please make him the tory candidate, one deserves a laugh explaining what was he doing in Nicaragua.
"Mr Lord, who was the ukip candidate when they made no effort against Douglas Carswell in Clacton in 2015..."
It would be bad enough for anyone in any party, but in a party that claims they are against back-room stitch-ups....
We might was well get as much amusement out of this as we can.
Which would mean the Tories probably have little chance of winning a majority for, well, a VERY long time. So without electoral reform that leaves periods of Labour majorities interspersed with coalitions of some stripe.
Ah well, c'est la vie...
You can see why the tories are annoyed at Carswell....
"Was there a particular problem specific to Rotherham? "
The only reason there was an investigation into Rotherham is the leaked minutes from child protection that showed them discussing the problem long before the Times broke the media's wall of silence.
If Con had instigated a wider investigation into how it was covered up - or if the BBC had done one themselves - they would have found the problem was the same all over the country and that the scale of gang-rape in Rotherham is not unique
e.g.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-25450512
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-23079649
etc
Mr Lord probably didn't have a chance at the GE anyway against Carswell, who is probably more eurosceptic than most Kippers. He should have welcomed him to the fold and negotiated hard for a better seat.
Retweeted by Louise Mensch
sean thomas knox@thomasknox·4 mins
Dear @Ed_Miliband your local council chief in Doncaster is now linked to the Rotherham scandal. http://www.southyorkshiretimes.co.uk/news/local/doncaster-council-boss-linked-to-rotherham-abuse-scandal-1-6810631#.U__G5tmu09w.twitter … any thoughts on this?
Just like Eastleigh.
He never had a chance of becoming MP for Clacton, and now he has made a public fool of himself, he hasn't a chance of becoming an MP anywhere.
Isam has it spot on. If a top candidate suddenly becomes available in your seat seat where your Party's chances are otherwise minimal, you step quietly aside. It's far more dignified than being swatted aside, and leaves your political career intact.
Ukip still have about 400 seats to fill, I'm sure he will be ok... Probably have more chance in his new seat to be honest
She used to post regularly here on PB, under a pseudonym. I wouldn't say she was one of the Site's best posters, but she wasn't thick.
I wonder if there was a different way to handle it, some kind of contest that Carswell was very likely to win anyway, but has a better look to it.
"UKIP tend to thrive in such communities --older, less well educated and insecure voters provide the ideal breeding ground for Farage's army.
"Clacton is also very 'white', with high numbers of voters born in the country and few minorities, which again favours UKIP, who poll strongest in ethnically homogeneous areas."
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/08/28/douglas-carswell-ukip-tories-clacton_n_5728682.html
When people realise that this has happened in a second place, the inevitable question "how many places did this happen in?" will be everywhere. And when it becomes clear it has happened again and again in unrelated places across the country, people will start looking for the common cultural thread.
A lot of resources went in to getting their supporters heard the loudest at the second TV debate.
BT will be mad if they don't push on the £85000 question. How could iScotland keep the current UK level of protection of bank accounts, which is also the level required for EU membership, if there is no Scottish central bank? If they have a Scottish Financial Services Guarantee Scheme, who will do the guaranteeing>
I suspect Mr Lord is playing the situation for what it's worth. Now that would make sense.
Throwing toys out of the pram doesn't.
Inquiry takes time - handy for kicking things into the long grass too.
The Home Office need to go mob handed into South Yorks police and find out why they haven't been following up on these serious crimes, and what on earth the CPS have been up to.
https://audioboo.fm/boos/2431018-is-this-the-moment-roger-lord-found-out-he-wasn-t-ukip-s-clacton-candidate?utm_campaign=detailpage&utm_content=retweet&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
'...he has "no intention" of stepping aside for the former Tory MP.
"It's an enormous discourtesy to anybody really just to announce that," he told BBC Essex.
He added: "Perhaps he's jumping ship to try and get in ahead of all the other Conservative MPs who are going to find themselves in the unemployment queue come next May."'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28967904
Carswell is still favourite, but the Tories could yet produce a shock and win back the seat. I suggest they pick a local candidate, preferably a telegenic female, perhaps a local teacher or nurse, mildly Eurosceptic, but centrist enough to win over Labour and LD voters, many of whom will want to keep UKIP out as they did in Newark. If Labour falls to 3rd in a seat they held in 1997 and 2001 that would also be a blow to Miliband
What does the mind do when the "boggle" response turns out to be wholly inadequate?
Cameron looked like he was moving house.
Nick Robinson said that when he asked Cameron about if he is going to support to leave the EU if he doesn't get his way he refused to answer ditto with Immigration.
And now second story Immigration numbers, third story Rotherham pakistani gangs.
It's all UKIP UKIP UKIP.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/08/28/why-has-labour-been-so-slow-to-react-to-rotherham/
Ed I am their leader, I must follow them Miliband.
What a shambles.
I've been banging on (*) for years that UKIP need to generate a well-developed plan for what leaving the EU would mean. Which organisations we would leave and continue to be in, what the costs and advantages would be etc. A bit like the Brexit prize but on steroids, including pre-talks with Brussels to smooth the process.
This is needed as soon as possible: if there is a 2016 referendum, then the eggs need to be in their basket well in advance. Failure to do so would just lead to the SNP's currency problem on steroids, and quite possibly a loss in the referendum.
Perhaps Carswell's the man to do this for UKIP. He can talk for both Conservative and UKIP supporters, and has thought deeply about other issues in the past and come up with decently-considered proposals.
Could Carswell be the architect of Brexit?
(*) Yes, really. I know it may surprise some of you, but I can really bang on about things at times. Engineering, trains, planes, the army, walking, even the dreaded HS2.
What I think we will all agree on is that the government needs to put some serious effort into finding out the extent of the scandal.
For those who haven't - he says he noticed a pattern of multiple Pakistani men being convicted across the area when he was stationed in Leeds by The Times. No one seemed interested in the court reports and after feeling great reluctance to draw an *ethnic* dimension conclusion - he put it out of his mind for several years. His conscience finally got the better of him and he started piecing the evidence together.
He was met with a wall of hostility and silence/called a racist blah blah - then he got his breakthrough when a girl victim gave him an intv. That formed the splash in the newpaper and stirred up a hornets nest.
His Editor told him it was now his full time job to investigate the whole sorry business. Three yrs on, and here we are. Barnado's instructed their staff not to talk to him or The Times even off the record. Rotherham Council tried to get the story blocked in the High Court... they suspended a whistleblower and launched a leak inquiry when 200 sets of case notes fell onto his desk. Their interest in actually protecting children seemed of no interest.
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