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In the Johnson exit betting the money’s going on 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    why are locking down probably from 28th?


    Alastair Grant
    @AlastairGrant4
    #Omicron makes up 72% of cases in England for 19th December
    The peak total number is still for specimens from 15th December, with both Omicron and Delta now declining
    Omicron down from about 55k on 15th to 42k on 18th
    Delta from 43k on 13th to 19.4k on 18th

    Hopefully we'll get data showing omicron isn't very dangerous before 28th December and they won't have to order a lockdown.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,841

    dixiedean said:

    What is your political opinion that you consider most at odds with your political tradition?

    Smoking ban indoors.

    Despite my political tradition being a case of saying let people decide what they want to do, and to let businesses decide what they want to do, I strongly supported the smoking ban indoors. Based not on policy or principle but purely on a selfish, personal dislike of smoking and especially its noxious smell. Smokers don't notice the smell of tobacco, but to me its utterly vile.

    One thing I don't miss from before the ban is going to pubs and clubs and the next day my clothes would all stink of tobacco. Not that I go to clubs anymore anyway, but still nice to go to pubs and I don't mind being outside talking to friends who are smoking but its a different thing indoors.

    Happy to admit I put my own selfish concerns ahead of principle or political tradition there.
    That doesn't count. Does anyone propose bringing back smoking indoors?
    Fair enough, but when it was introduced it went against my traditions and I supported it at the time despite that.

    Would have to have a rethink if you're not counting that.
    Yeah. Mebbes that was a little unfair on reflection.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,776

    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    3h
    A/The big unknown for Omicron is the magnitude of reduction in illness severity compared with Delta and prior variants. The South African preprint data today says 70%, adjusted. In a population with high Covid exposure,

    Yes, it had high Covid exposure. But that's also coupled with low vaccine uptake, HIV/AIDS etc.

    The SA government's official number is 250,000 Covid cases ever. Which is 0.4% of the population of 60 million. If we assume they they have undercounted by 99%, it still only equates to 40% of the population having had it.

    And I'd rather have 80+% of the population double vaxxed, and half treble, and decent prior exposure, than four-int-ten (at best) having previously had the virus.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Andy_JS said:

    why are locking down probably from 28th?


    Alastair Grant
    @AlastairGrant4
    #Omicron makes up 72% of cases in England for 19th December
    The peak total number is still for specimens from 15th December, with both Omicron and Delta now declining
    Omicron down from about 55k on 15th to 42k on 18th
    Delta from 43k on 13th to 19.4k on 18th

    Hopefully we'll get data showing omicron isn't very dangerous before 28th December and they won't have to order a lockdown.
    No chance it'll come in that soon. What will happen, is we'll see a massive drop off in cases starting immediately after lockdown is imposed, for which the Government will try to take credit.

    Assuming they manage to impose one. Which I think is touch and go.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Dan Hodges has managed to get hold of some new data:

    "@DPJHodges

    Todays full UKHSA Omicron data. New cases 15,363 compared to 8,044 yesterday. Total hospitalisations 133, compared to 129 yesterday. Total deaths 14, compared to 14 yesterday.

    6:50 PM · Dec 21, 2021·Twitter Web App"

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1473365200761929728
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,841

    why are locking down probably from 28th?


    Alastair Grant
    @AlastairGrant4
    #Omicron makes up 72% of cases in England for 19th December
    The peak total number is still for specimens from 15th December, with both Omicron and Delta now declining
    Omicron down from about 55k on 15th to 42k on 18th
    Delta from 43k on 13th to 19.4k on 18th

    Folk have voluntarily cut back on contacts from around those dates. In order to "save" their Christmas.. Plus, anecdotally, folk aren't testing or reporting results.
    They are determined to go ahead with a "normal' Christmas. Which means huge mixing across geographical and age ranges.
    And they'll be perfectly willing to be off sick come the New Year, when they anticipate a lockdown anyways.
    That's my cynical take on all of it.
  • Well anecdotally in London at least, people are essentially locking themselves down.

    We know that lockdowns reduce cases as we've seen here multiple times, so I am going to say that is the reason for the fall
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,841

    Well anecdotally in London at least, people are essentially locking themselves down.

    We know that lockdowns reduce cases as we've seen here multiple times, so I am going to say that is the reason for the fall

    You and me set the trends my friend.
  • dixiedean said:

    why are locking down probably from 28th?


    Alastair Grant
    @AlastairGrant4
    #Omicron makes up 72% of cases in England for 19th December
    The peak total number is still for specimens from 15th December, with both Omicron and Delta now declining
    Omicron down from about 55k on 15th to 42k on 18th
    Delta from 43k on 13th to 19.4k on 18th

    Folk have voluntarily cut back on contacts from around those dates. In order to "save" their Christmas.. Plus, anecdotally, folk aren't testing or reporting results.
    They are determined to go ahead with a "normal' Christmas. Which means huge mixing across geographical and age ranges.
    And they'll be perfectly willing to be off sick come the New Year, when they anticipate a lockdown anyways.
    That's my cynical take on all of it.
    We have a meal booked at a local family-friendly restaurant for New Years Eve. They're probably fully booked, have a DJ booked etc

    I believe that New Years Eve is the busiest day of the year for that sector. So simply "saving" Christmas and then writing off New Years Eve would be dismal.

    And if you're not locking down before NYE, there's even less point in doing so afterwards.
  • Surely the problem with the "lockdown from the 28th" theory is that it undermines the Cabinet decision not to lockdown now. The line was they needed more data but not so, if it turns out they have already decided to lockdown from the 28th.
  • Surely the problem with the "lockdown from the 28th" theory is that it undermines the Cabinet decision not to lockdown now. The line was they needed more data but not so, if it turns out they have already decided to lockdown from the 28th.

    I don't believe it for one second.

    It all seems to come from one self-publicising author with an axe to grind and no corroboration.

    Treat with more than a pinch of salt.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021

    Surely the problem with the "lockdown from the 28th" theory is that it undermines the Cabinet decision not to lockdown now. The line was they needed more data but not so, if it turns out they have already decided to lockdown from the 28th.

    I would guess it is "be prepared" messsage....if we are going for it, it will be then.
  • dixiedean said:

    Well anecdotally in London at least, people are essentially locking themselves down.

    We know that lockdowns reduce cases as we've seen here multiple times, so I am going to say that is the reason for the fall

    You and me set the trends my friend.
    That we do! :)

    It was quite plain to me it was going that way, when a week or two ago when the mask mandates came in, it was the highest I've seen it on the Tube and bus in months.

    I'm not sure if @dixiedean is in London or not - I am afraid I can't recall - but perhaps they can confirm from their area, what they had been seeing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719


    Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    1h
    I heard from a good source that supermarkets have been told by the Government that lockdown lite starts on 28 December.

    'lockdown lite', even then Boris would have a challenge getting that through Cabinet and without over half of Tory MPs rebelling and voting against
  • HYUFD said:


    Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    1h
    I heard from a good source that supermarkets have been told by the Government that lockdown lite starts on 28 December.

    'lockdown lite', even then Boris would have a challenge getting that through Cabinet and without over half of Tory MPs rebelling and voting against
    Forget about merely voting against, if there's any form of lockdown I fully expect letters would go in now.
  • https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1473332543462293508

    Seat Forecast (MRP):

    LAB: 320 (+49)
    CON: 236 (-52)
    SNP: 59 (=)
    LDM: 11 (+3)
    PLC: 5 (=)
    GRN: 1 (=)

    via @FindoutnowUK, 14-15 Dec

    (Changes with 1 Dec)

    Labour would barely even need the Lib Dems, they could probably pass stuff with the SDLP?

    If this was the kind of poll going into any GE, the idea of "vote Labour get Sturgeon" would be an utterly irrelevant attack
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Surely the problem with the "lockdown from the 28th" theory is that it undermines the Cabinet decision not to lockdown now. The line was they needed more data but not so, if it turns out they have already decided to lockdown from the 28th.

    I don't believe it for one second.

    It all seems to come from one self-publicising author with an axe to grind and no corroboration.

    Treat with more than a pinch of salt.
    Yeah, it doesn't pass the smell test.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021
    Clickbait it seems.

    Interesting it says "according reports", not even "according to sources". Reports by who? Reports of what credibility? It seems to be just a regurgitation of reports that some where speculating upon before Monday's Cabinet meeting.

    I think the most noteworthy thing tonight is the reduction of self-isolation from 10 days to 7 days. A really good first step, obviously ultimately as @RochdalePioneers and I have discussed this needs to be reduced to 0 days eventually, but dropping down to 7 days is a good first step.

    If the government were seriously about to impose a lockdown, I don't think they'd be cutting the self-isolation period.

    Fingers crossed it seems they've realised that if they weren't going to do it on Monday, there's not going to be a point where it should be done.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    We had all this before the cabinet meeting and none of it happened, so nah.

    Knowing who is briefing this would be much more interesting than any of the actual content.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,841
    edited December 2021

    dixiedean said:

    Well anecdotally in London at least, people are essentially locking themselves down.

    We know that lockdowns reduce cases as we've seen here multiple times, so I am going to say that is the reason for the fall

    You and me set the trends my friend.
    That we do! :)

    It was quite plain to me it was going that way, when a week or two ago when the mask mandates came in, it was the highest I've seen it on the Tube and bus in months.

    I'm not sure if @dixiedean is in London or not - I am afraid I can't recall - but perhaps they can confirm from their area, what they had been seeing.
    Folk want a Christmas. They didn't have one last year cos the Establishment said they couldn't. While the Establishment merrily had one.
    This is quiet fury.
    I expect a huge spike in cases in New Year. Whether real or not. Never seen such low level anger.
    Have had several people say they will report a positive LFT after New Year in any event.
    Just to spite the powers that be.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,776
    HYUFD said:


    Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    1h
    I heard from a good source that supermarkets have been told by the Government that lockdown lite starts on 28 December.

    'lockdown lite', even then Boris would have a challenge getting that through Cabinet and without over half of Tory MPs rebelling and voting against
    I think it's a bullshit story from Ms Pearson.

    What is possible is that the Cabinet is meeting post-Xmas to see if further restrictions are needed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,776
    edited December 2021


    Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    1h
    I heard from a good source that supermarkets have been told by the Government that lockdown lite starts on 28 December.

    Why would supermarkets be told, given "lockdown lite" would barely impact them?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    rcs1000 said:


    Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    1h
    I heard from a good source that supermarkets have been told by the Government that lockdown lite starts on 28 December.

    Why would supermarkets be told, given "lockdown lite" would barely impact them?
    Good question...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    rcs1000 said:


    Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    1h
    I heard from a good source that supermarkets have been told by the Government that lockdown lite starts on 28 December.

    Why would supermarkets be told, given "lockdown lite" would barely impact them?
    What if other shops shut. No January sales?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,841
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Well anecdotally in London at least, people are essentially locking themselves down.

    We know that lockdowns reduce cases as we've seen here multiple times, so I am going to say that is the reason for the fall

    You and me set the trends my friend.
    That we do! :)

    It was quite plain to me it was going that way, when a week or two ago when the mask mandates came in, it was the highest I've seen it on the Tube and bus in months.

    I'm not sure if @dixiedean is in London or not - I am afraid I can't recall - but perhaps they can confirm from their area, what they had been seeing.
    Folk want a Christmas. They didn't have one last year cos the Establishment said they couldn't. While the Establishment merrily had one.
    This is quiet fury.
    I expect a huge spike in cases in New Year. Whether real or not. Never seen such low level anger.
    Have had several people say they will report a positive LFT after New Year in any event.
    Just to spite the powers that be.
    And they intend to have 2 weeks in bed, ill or not.
    Why the hell shouldn't they?
  • I was told this morning that staff at Soho Farmhouse were told to expect a lockdown of some kind after Christmas.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    1h
    I heard from a good source that supermarkets have been told by the Government that lockdown lite starts on 28 December.

    Why would supermarkets be told, given "lockdown lite" would barely impact them?
    What if other shops shut. No January sales?
    That would hardly be lockdown lite.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Well anecdotally in London at least, people are essentially locking themselves down.

    We know that lockdowns reduce cases as we've seen here multiple times, so I am going to say that is the reason for the fall

    You and me set the trends my friend.
    That we do! :)

    It was quite plain to me it was going that way, when a week or two ago when the mask mandates came in, it was the highest I've seen it on the Tube and bus in months.

    I'm not sure if @dixiedean is in London or not - I am afraid I can't recall - but perhaps they can confirm from their area, what they had been seeing.
    Folk want a Christmas. They didn't have one last year cos the Establishment said they couldn't. While the Establishment merrily had one.
    This is quiet fury.
    I expect a huge spike in cases in New Year. Whether real or not. Never seen such low level anger.
    Have had several people say they will report a positive LFT after New Year in any event.
    Just to spite the powers that be.
    You can that easily fake a positive (and therefore negative) test result?
  • rcs1000 said:


    Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    1h
    I heard from a good source that supermarkets have been told by the Government that lockdown lite starts on 28 December.

    Why would supermarkets be told, given "lockdown lite" would barely impact them?
    I don't believe they have or would be but ...

    A hospitality closure could result in increased supermarket demand, especially if that resulted in panic buying.

    Telling hospitality they can only trade outdoors in January, in England, is a hospitality closure.

    Its entirely possible someone has advised them to be prepared, but that's not the same as saying the decision is made.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,841
    edited December 2021
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Well anecdotally in London at least, people are essentially locking themselves down.

    We know that lockdowns reduce cases as we've seen here multiple times, so I am going to say that is the reason for the fall

    You and me set the trends my friend.
    That we do! :)

    It was quite plain to me it was going that way, when a week or two ago when the mask mandates came in, it was the highest I've seen it on the Tube and bus in months.

    I'm not sure if @dixiedean is in London or not - I am afraid I can't recall - but perhaps they can confirm from their area, what they had been seeing.
    Folk want a Christmas. They didn't have one last year cos the Establishment said they couldn't. While the Establishment merrily had one.
    This is quiet fury.
    I expect a huge spike in cases in New Year. Whether real or not. Never seen such low level anger.
    Have had several people say they will report a positive LFT after New Year in any event.
    Just to spite the powers that be.
    You can that easily fake a positive (and therefore negative) test result?
    All you have to do is report one. And order a PCR test. Which you don't return. Or cock up. Who the Hell checks?
    People know this. They aren't daft FFS.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    dixiedean said:

    Well anecdotally in London at least, people are essentially locking themselves down.

    We know that lockdowns reduce cases as we've seen here multiple times, so I am going to say that is the reason for the fall

    You and me set the trends my friend.
    That we do! :)

    It was quite plain to me it was going that way, when a week or two ago when the mask mandates came in, it was the highest I've seen it on the Tube and bus in months.

    I'm not sure if @dixiedean is in London or not - I am afraid I can't recall - but perhaps they can confirm from their area, what they had been seeing.
    A third of Londoners have been stupid enough not to have had even one vaccination. That's somewhere between 2 and 3 million people. Locking themselves down would be the right decision.
  • Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Well anecdotally in London at least, people are essentially locking themselves down.

    We know that lockdowns reduce cases as we've seen here multiple times, so I am going to say that is the reason for the fall

    You and me set the trends my friend.
    That we do! :)

    It was quite plain to me it was going that way, when a week or two ago when the mask mandates came in, it was the highest I've seen it on the Tube and bus in months.

    I'm not sure if @dixiedean is in London or not - I am afraid I can't recall - but perhaps they can confirm from their area, what they had been seeing.
    A third of Londoners have been stupid enough not to have had even one vaccination. That's somewhere between 2 and 3 million people. Locking themselves down would be the right decision.
    Philip said we should all go out and infect each other
  • Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Well anecdotally in London at least, people are essentially locking themselves down.

    We know that lockdowns reduce cases as we've seen here multiple times, so I am going to say that is the reason for the fall

    You and me set the trends my friend.
    That we do! :)

    It was quite plain to me it was going that way, when a week or two ago when the mask mandates came in, it was the highest I've seen it on the Tube and bus in months.

    I'm not sure if @dixiedean is in London or not - I am afraid I can't recall - but perhaps they can confirm from their area, what they had been seeing.
    A third of Londoners have been stupid enough not to have had even one vaccination. That's somewhere between 2 and 3 million people. Locking themselves down would be the right decision.
    Philip said we should all go out and infect each other
    If London has issues, its due to too many unvaccinated idiots, not due to too many people going out.
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 235
    So with all the briefing about potential lockdowns post-Christmas, I have a flight to Austria booked for 1 January. I could really do with a proper break (illustrated by the fact I'm still working at this time). Should I book a flight on the 28th as insurance and, if necessary, work from Austria for a few days before my holiday or is that getting ridiculous? I have an EU passport, so no concern about right to work.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021
    I do wonder if there is any hope for the US sometimes...the #1 bestseller on Amazon.com non-fiction is hit piece book about Dr Fauci by a well known anti-vaxxer...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    I do wonder if there is any hope for the US sometimes...the #1 bestseller on Amazon.com non-fiction is hit piece book about Dr Fauci by a well known anti-vaxxer...

    Fauci does say some unnecessary things sometimes, like apparently pronouncing the other day that facemasks would be mandatory on planes forever. No-one can possibly know what the future holds as far as this is concerned.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    This thread is moved to the back page


  • Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    1h
    I heard from a good source that supermarkets have been told by the Government that lockdown lite starts on 28 December.

    I do recall saying they would impose restrictions between Christmas and New Year. This is one where I'm the opposite of smug - this is hateful. Lets see what they have in mind and how close to doubling every 2 days Omicron is by then before I pass judgement on whether its necessary or not.
  • RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    1h
    I heard from a good source that supermarkets have been told by the Government that lockdown lite starts on 28 December.

    Why would supermarkets be told, given "lockdown lite" would barely impact them?
    What if other shops shut. No January sales?
    That would hardly be lockdown lite.
    As lockdown is can't leave your house at all - see other countries for actual lockdown in action - then what we laughingly call "lockdown" is definitely lite.

    I looked back through my 2020 timeline last night. I did an awful lot of outdoor exercise and went into an awful lot of supermarkets for someone who supposedly was locked down.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    dixiedean said:

    why are locking down probably from 28th?


    Alastair Grant
    @AlastairGrant4
    #Omicron makes up 72% of cases in England for 19th December
    The peak total number is still for specimens from 15th December, with both Omicron and Delta now declining
    Omicron down from about 55k on 15th to 42k on 18th
    Delta from 43k on 13th to 19.4k on 18th

    Folk have voluntarily cut back on contacts from around those dates. In order to "save" their Christmas.. Plus, anecdotally, folk aren't testing or reporting results.
    They are determined to go ahead with a "normal' Christmas. Which means huge mixing across geographical and age ranges.
    And they'll be perfectly willing to be off sick come the New Year, when they anticipate a lockdown anyways.
    That's my cynical take on all of it.
    We can test your theory out by looking at Christmas last year.

    Oh look on the 20thish of December there was a weird dip and flattening out in the in the positive case stats that ended immediately after Christmas.

    THEORY ACCEPTED.
This discussion has been closed.