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In the Johnson exit betting the money’s going on 2022 – politicalbetting.com
In the Johnson exit betting the money’s going on 2022 – politicalbetting.com
Currently the most active and biggest UK political betting market is on when Boris Johnson is going to cease to be Prime Minister. It is now as the chart shows being rated as a greater than 50% chance.
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Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics
Another scandal?
A few more by election losses?
An absolute pounding in the locals?
People thinking the oven ready Brexit deal gave them dysentery?
The Mrs deciding Number 10 is too small (it is) and wanting to move into a palace?
Only 1 firm asked how I could do that trick and I had to point out I had written the first online version in 1995 so knew in intimate detail the tricks used (and there aren't that many, the main one is look for the question that is almost but not quite the mirror opposite of the one asked earlier).
So what are the rules, only a week between last letter and vote of confidence? Johnson can’t stand? How many weeks for MPs whittling and Members to vote? Can Boris stay PM all this time? A new Prime-minister in March or later?
SCons will still vote SLab and SLD, but a lot of SLabbers and SLDers will revert to default.
Boris is, quite literally, repulsive.
fatmuscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.I think.
With Trump, there were bets on Pence succeeding and on early exit that were principally about impeachment but would have paid out had Trump, a fairly old and obese man, died or resigned due to ill health. That was inevitably one aspect of the price.
Hooker would be more his style.
Which shifts the VONC to after the local elections and tends towards Truss / Hunt / AN Other rather than Rishi given the bad news in April
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circassian_beauty
Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.
For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.
Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
May was forced to resign in between the disastrous 2019 local election results and the even worse European election results
Reannouncing HS2E or NPR will return a lot of Red Wall voters to him - even if their delivery dates are pushed back a bit.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gareth_Chilcott
I can’t think of the last time a PM entered office mid Parliament who hadn’t held a great office of state. Yes conventions are made to be broken I suppose, but it’s a pretty decent guiding principle.
Who are the others? Hunt probably isn’t going to win over the membership. Priti has blotted her copy book. Gove is yesterdays man. Zahawi and Mordaunt are probably still too junior. Javid could go for it I suppose.
It's oft quoted, but this is the Party which banged desks for May when she tossed away a majority.
Seems to be based solely on the case of IDS.
I was so, so lucky to exit that with a profit
What we expected of a prop?
Opposition parties could love getting stuck into their records the next couple of years.
It comes after Baroness Jones lodged a complaint over the force's refusal to probe lockdown-breaking festive event last year
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/21/met-refers-police-watchdog-handling-downing-street-christmas/
Met-a
Plus something had to be done to give small firms a chance to survive and a loan administered by a third party is a lot lower risk and hassle than grants - which gave many welsh holiday lets better profits in 2020 than in 2021.
Anyone else loses more voters than they gain in short order. Even if they theoretically might do better in polling.
Unless, as @eek points out they promise to spend yet shed loads more money.
And the selectorate won't like that.
It will be the most low tax of the two presented.
1) The 54/55 letters
2) He has to lose the election
Neither of which are certainties in the foreseeable future. For reasons including further hurdles:
3) Boris may be flawed but may be the candidate with the best chance (in Tory eyes) of wining the next election
because
4) There is no candidate with an undoubtedly clear case for being able to win it - they all have significant problems (including mad, bad, tainted by current regime, Remainer, not very bright, unknown, too posh, too unposh, being called Steve Baker, will lose seat next time, etc)
Which means that
5) The Tories may have the sense not to call time until they have coalesced around a candidate who could actually win the next election. And in doing so they may discover that the party is so eviscerated and the public so febrile with populism that there isn't one, because the best candidate by a mile (Hunt) is a pariah to most of his own party, and many Tory voters, because he is an able, centrist, intelligent Tory.
As a result I place 2022 at 40% rather than 50% (and 2023 higher than 13%).
Edit: The next election may well be an excellent one to lose.
More wine? Sure
There are few 50-somethings who actively enjoy cocaine
The public seem to be getting rather fed up with it tbh.
In other words either Boris decides to stand down or they make certain they would win the vonc
Labour have not replaced a single leader midterm in the same timeframe who did not die (ie John Smith in 1994) apart from 3 times election winning Blair who they replaced with Brown in 2007 who went on to lose in 2010
It really is better to junk the treasury's economic investment models and increase the tax generated up north.
Finally the selectorate won't actually care about anything beyond the size of this year's pensioner's handout - as being blunt most of them will be retired.
The other thing that's been putting people off is the reports that party drugs are being laced with fentanyl to get people addicted. The guy we bought from has ended up in jail and now we don't have anyone who we trust to not fuck us over. We really need to legalise it.
The other interesting factor is Boris had reach where Conservatives usually struggle to go. Will Labour voters voting Tory first time Boris fans embrace his successor, or even feel defrauded?
Also he comes across as a weirdo on camera.
He has no chance at all. If he makes the final two he will handily lose to whoever he faces. He won’t make the final two.
“It’s irrelevant. No one trusts the scientists or the PM. It's a disaster …He has to resign, to get the public listening again. What a mess!”
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1473391671081582596
A question.
The "Magennis' Bar", in Belfast, has a mens toilet, 4 foot by 3 foot.
In the past, mixed groups of over 71 people have congregated in this toilet.
Will Sinn Fein undertake that full social distancing will be applied to all alibis in future?
Mandy? Yes. Wizz? Well, it can give you a bee in your bonnet about stuff.
Animal rescue policy made in the afterglow of an acid trip? Quite possibly. And look at that taste in decor. It screams comfy corner to K-hole in.
But I cannot imagine Downing Street to be wall to wall nose candy. Unless Gove shows up of course, then all bets are off
Remember the ERG thought they would win in December 2018 - and they lost be a significant number.
He’s going to go, best he goes before tarnished completely.
With BoJo, there may be a small number of MPs who are concerned he’d be replaced with an anti lockdowner. But these will be small in number. My expectation is that he won’t let it go to the vote and stands aside once the letters are in. Or probably even before then once it’s clear that it’s imminent.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9738735/Fraud-blunders-Covid-support-schemes-cost-taxpayers-30bn-MPs-warn.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/22/fifth-of-uk-covid-contracts-raised-red-flags-for-possible-corruption
Steven Sheil
@SSheil
Sorting through some books I found this - one of the maddest pulp paperbacks I’ve read, in which a young man discovers that Hitler’s brain was transplanted into the body of a beautiful young German countess. Unfortunately he only discovers this while they’re having sex.
https://twitter.com/SSheil/status/1362150041843085312
TSE pointed out in the past that he wants to beat May's tenure length and ideally Cameron's. The latter is impossible but it's easy to see Boris trying to continue even when everyone is saying time to go..