Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

In the Johnson exit betting the money’s going on 2022 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageIn the Johnson exit betting the money’s going on 2022 – politicalbetting.com

Currently the most active and biggest UK political betting market is on when Boris Johnson is going to cease to be Prime Minister. It is now as the chart shows being rated as a greater than 50% chance.

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    edited December 2021
    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    On topic. If something smells in your kitchen bin, act quick.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    edited December 2021
    Third, like the bottle of wine opened at a work meeting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,680
    edited December 2021
    So what would be the tipping point?

    Another scandal?

    A few more by election losses?

    An absolute pounding in the locals?

    People thinking the oven ready Brexit deal gave them dysentery?

    The Mrs deciding Number 10 is too small (it is) and wanting to move into a palace?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    edited December 2021
    The alternative is that we get saddled with a lame duck PM who outside Westminster is largely a figure of fun, if not of contempt. Which wouldn’t be a good state of affairs.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    IanB2 said:

    The alternative is that we get saddled with a lame duck PM who outside Westminster is largely a figure of fun, if not of contempt. Which wouldn’t be a good state of affairs.

    Why do you say "outside Westminster"?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021

    So what would be the tipping point?

    Another scandal?

    A few more by election losses?

    An absolute pounding in the locals?

    People thinking the oven ready Brexit deal gave them dysentery?

    The Mrs deciding Number 10 is too small (it is) and wanting to move into a palace?

    Don't they live in Number 11 (as has been the case since the Blairs) with Rishi and co not bothering with the flat in Number 10 and remaining in Kensington.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    You suspect it’s like, went back to constituency at Christmas, felt the strength of feeling, sent the letter in.

    So what are the rules, only a week between last letter and vote of confidence? Johnson can’t stand? How many weeks for MPs whittling and Members to vote? Can Boris stay PM all this time? A new Prime-minister in March or later?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    On topic. If something smells in your kitchen bin, act quick.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6R9fY8lfGo
  • eek said:

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1473331860990267401

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (+3)
    CON: 30% (-6)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 10% (+2)
    REF: 7% (+4)

    via @FindoutnowUK, 14-15 Dec

    (Changes with 1 Dec)

    Terrible poll for the Tories.
    A getting rid of Boris poll for the Tories, however I think that it's some way off still.

    Quite how he could and has fucked up so monumentally escapes me.
    That has the Tories on 236 and Labour on 320.

    Yep it's not quite a Labour Majority but its definitely a Labour Government.

    It also shows how well the Tories do under the new boundaries there it's Tories 251, Labour 305.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=30&LAB=38&LIB=10&Reform=7&Green=10&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
    I suspect tactical voting alone would lead to Labour (and Lib Dems) outperforming UNS.
    We’ll see tactical unwind in Scotland.
    Pretty much at the SCONS expense. I don't think Ian Murray has too much to worry about.
    Indeed.

    SCons will still vote SLab and SLD, but a lot of SLabbers and SLDers will revert to default.

    Boris is, quite literally, repulsive.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    I suspect the bet is void for a death via ill health - it was suspended when Boris was in hospital with Covid.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    I suspect the bet is void for a death via ill health - it was suspended when Boris was in hospital with Covid.
    Suspending a market = not taking any new bets, not voiding existing ones.

    I think.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920

    So what would be the tipping point?

    Another scandal?

    A few more by election losses?

    An absolute pounding in the locals?

    People thinking the oven ready Brexit deal gave them dysentery?

    The Mrs deciding Number 10 is too small (it is) and wanting to move into a palace?

    Intuitively it feels as though it'll be 2022, but I don't trust intuition on this. Bets on people leaving prematurely tend to go wrong. I think we can rule out leaving voluntarily - if you're a politician at all, being PM is really hard to get tired of. As for the 50 letters, MPs usually find a reason to postpone the evil day, and I can well see him fighting, winning and carrying on, expelling the ringleaders.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
  • Given how lax Boris is with basic anti-COVID measures and how widespread it is in London, I wouldn't exactly be surprised if we find out he catches it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    Thank God there is no question of heavy cocaine use, that can really fck your heart.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    History repeats itself first as tragedy, then as farce.

  • eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    I suspect the bet is void for a death via ill health - it was suspended when Boris was in hospital with Covid.
    That's rather different. Since he was known to be ill, it was distasteful to take bets. That's not the same as someone keeling over.

    With Trump, there were bets on Pence succeeding and on early exit that were principally about impeachment but would have paid out had Trump, a fairly old and obese man, died or resigned due to ill health. That was inevitably one aspect of the price.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    I suspect the bet is void for a death via ill health - it was suspended when Boris was in hospital with Covid.
    Yes, but unfair. He almost certainly got that through political activity - shaking hands with a hospital-ful of covid patients and medical staff. .
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004

    So what would be the tipping point?

    Another scandal?

    A few more by election losses?

    An absolute pounding in the locals?

    People thinking the oven ready Brexit deal gave them dysentery?

    The Mrs deciding Number 10 is too small (it is) and wanting to move into a palace?

    There’s not that many letters to go in, can’t imagine they will get as far as May. Vote of confidence January would be my bet.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    So what would be the tipping point?

    Another scandal?

    A few more by election losses?

    An absolute pounding in the locals?

    People thinking the oven ready Brexit deal gave them dysentery?

    The Mrs deciding Number 10 is too small (it is) and wanting to move into a palace?

    Intuitively it feels as though it'll be 2022, but I don't trust intuition on this. Bets on people leaving prematurely tend to go wrong. I think we can rule out leaving voluntarily - if you're a politician at all, being PM is really hard to get tired of. As for the 50 letters, MPs usually find a reason to postpone the evil day, and I can well see him fighting, winning and carrying on, expelling the ringleaders.
    If he passes the VONC (which could be gamed by MPs wanting to keep out Truss and/or Sunak) he is safe to 2023.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    At 5 7, or is it 9?, he ain't no prop.
    Hooker would be more his style.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021

    So what would be the tipping point?

    Another scandal?

    A few more by election losses?

    An absolute pounding in the locals?

    People thinking the oven ready Brexit deal gave them dysentery?

    The Mrs deciding Number 10 is too small (it is) and wanting to move into a palace?

    Intuitively it feels as though it'll be 2022, but I don't trust intuition on this. Bets on people leaving prematurely tend to go wrong. I think we can rule out leaving voluntarily - if you're a politician at all, being PM is really hard to get tired of. As for the 50 letters, MPs usually find a reason to postpone the evil day, and I can well see him fighting, winning and carrying on, expelling the ringleaders.
    Actually that is a clear risk if things go wrong. Were Boris to win the VONC he can easily bin 20 or so letter writing MPs and still have a working majority. And with that letter your political career is gone in 2023.

    Which shifts the VONC to after the local elections and tends towards Truss / Hunt / AN Other rather than Rishi given the bad news in April
  • Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    He's got some Circassian genes (his great great grandmother was probably a Circassian slave)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circassian_beauty
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    eek said:

    So what would be the tipping point?

    Another scandal?

    A few more by election losses?

    An absolute pounding in the locals?

    People thinking the oven ready Brexit deal gave them dysentery?

    The Mrs deciding Number 10 is too small (it is) and wanting to move into a palace?

    Intuitively it feels as though it'll be 2022, but I don't trust intuition on this. Bets on people leaving prematurely tend to go wrong. I think we can rule out leaving voluntarily - if you're a politician at all, being PM is really hard to get tired of. As for the 50 letters, MPs usually find a reason to postpone the evil day, and I can well see him fighting, winning and carrying on, expelling the ringleaders.
    Actually that is a clear risk if things go wrong. Were Boris to win the VONC he can easily bin 20 or so letter writing MPs and still have a working majority. And with that letter your political career is gone in 2023.
    The only person who knows who has written the letters is Brady. And if you think some up of us dislike Johnson...
  • Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004

    On topic. If something smells in your kitchen bin, act quick.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6R9fY8lfGo
    😂. I’ve never seen that before. It’s crazy!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    He's got some Circassian genes (his great great grandmother was probably a Circassian slave)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circassian_beauty
    Steatopygia. Heritable.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,083
    A lot of liberals find the ruthlessness that Tories display towards their leaders unseemly. Personally I think it's one of their redeeming qualities. They don't muck about. None of the sentimentality of Labour. The country (party?) always comes before any one individual.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    The problem with Rishi or Liz is their political instincts are out of tune with the prevailing public mood.
    Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
    But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    He's got some Circassian genes (his great great grandmother was probably a Circassian slave)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circassian_beauty
    Steatopygia. Heritable.
    Baby got back
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    My word, Northern Ireland ain't taking any chances on Omicron.



    :smiley:

    Wasn't there an identical joke last year?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    Crispin Blunt resigned from the Tory frontbench after the 2003 locals poll close and called for a VONC in IDS but the results were better than expected and boosted IDS for a period.

    May was forced to resign in between the disastrous 2019 local election results and the even worse European election results
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    He's got some Circassian genes (his great great grandmother was probably a Circassian slave)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circassian_beauty
    Steatopygia. Heritable.
    Baby got back
    Talk about mudflaps, the First Lord of the Treasury's got 'em.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 39,240
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    10 DAYS? Hey man, I don't wanna rain on your parade, but we're not gonna last ten HOURS! Those viruses are gonna come in here just like they did before. And they're gonna come in here and they're gonna come in here AND THEY'RE GONNA GET US!
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    The problem with Rishi or Liz is their political instincts are out of tune with the prevailing public mood.
    Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
    But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
    Rishi is a complete unknown on such things - I hope that as he knows how the treasury works (and the obvious flaws in the railway documents) that he is prepared to ignore the treasury when he takes power.

    Reannouncing HS2E or NPR will return a lot of Red Wall voters to him - even if their delivery dates are pushed back a bit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    Thank God there is no question of heavy cocaine use, that can really fck your heart.
    I have no personal knowledge of this, but I would lay odds that Boris does not do a lot of ‘ooter
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    10 DAYS? Hey man, I don't wanna rain on your parade, but we're not gonna last ten HOURS! Those viruses are gonna come in here just like they did before. And they're gonna come in here and they're gonna come in here AND THEY'RE GONNA GET US!
    Sunil, this little girl survived longer than that with no weapons and no training.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,153
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    At 5 7, or is it 9?, he ain't no prop.
    Hooker would be more his style.
    Back in the amateur era, that was what we expected of a prop
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gareth_Chilcott
  • dixiedean said:

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    The problem with Rishi or Liz is their political instincts are out of tune with the prevailing public mood.
    Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
    But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
    I’m not sure I see any alternative other than those two.

    I can’t think of the last time a PM entered office mid Parliament who hadn’t held a great office of state. Yes conventions are made to be broken I suppose, but it’s a pretty decent guiding principle.

    Who are the others? Hunt probably isn’t going to win over the membership. Priti has blotted her copy book. Gove is yesterdays man. Zahawi and Mordaunt are probably still too junior. Javid could go for it I suppose.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited December 2021

    A lot of liberals find the ruthlessness that Tories display towards their leaders unseemly. Personally I think it's one of their redeeming qualities. They don't muck about. None of the sentimentality of Labour. The country (party?) always comes before any one individual.

    But do they?
    It's oft quoted, but this is the Party which banged desks for May when she tossed away a majority.
    Seems to be based solely on the case of IDS.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    Flashing back to the May exit market debacle.

    I was so, so lucky to exit that with a profit
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    Thank God there is no question of heavy cocaine use, that can really fck your heart.
    I have no personal knowledge of this, but I would lay odds that Boris does not do a lot of ‘ooter
    Petronella in the speccie says Carrie and cohort party like fck in no 10 while Bojo is the grumpy old man in the corner. My guess is it gets pressed on him.
  • Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    At 5 7, or is it 9?, he ain't no prop.
    Hooker would be more his style.
    Back in the amateur era, that was what we expected of a prop
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gareth_Chilcott
    "He acted in the revived stage play Up 'n' Under which was set around a rugby league sevens tournament."

    What we expected of a prop?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,153

    So what would be the tipping point?

    Another scandal?

    A few more by election losses?

    An absolute pounding in the locals?

    People thinking the oven ready Brexit deal gave them dysentery?

    The Mrs deciding Number 10 is too small (it is) and wanting to move into a palace?

    Intuitively it feels as though it'll be 2022, but I don't trust intuition on this. Bets on people leaving prematurely tend to go wrong. I think we can rule out leaving voluntarily - if you're a politician at all, being PM is really hard to get tired of. As for the 50 letters, MPs usually find a reason to postpone the evil day, and I can well see him fighting, winning and carrying on, expelling the ringleaders.
    Good grief though it can't be much fun for him at the moment. I'm amazed he can find the will to carry on going. I suppose no one wants to bow out on a low.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    At 5 7, or is it 9?, he ain't no prop.
    Hooker would be more his style.
    Back in the amateur era, that was what we expected of a prop
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gareth_Chilcott
    I think you meant "amateur".
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    The problem with Rishi or Liz is their political instincts are out of tune with the prevailing public mood.
    Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
    But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
    Rishi is a complete unknown on such things - I hope that as he knows how the treasury works (and the obvious flaws in the railway documents) that he is prepared to ignore the treasury when he takes power.

    Reannouncing HS2E or NPR will return a lot of Red Wall voters to him - even if their delivery dates are pushed back a bit.
    It’s interesting, because there is only the one person who seems credible as a Prime Minister in the cabinet, in Rishi, clear favourite. But he’s handed thirty billion pounds of tax payers money to criminals! Second favourite Truss has signed all those trade deals the details and impacts of which are yet to come out in the wash.

    Opposition parties could love getting stuck into their records the next couple of years.
  • eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    The problem with Rishi or Liz is their political instincts are out of tune with the prevailing public mood.
    Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
    But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
    Rishi is a complete unknown on such things - I hope that as he knows how the treasury works (and the obvious flaws in the railway documents) that he is prepared to ignore the treasury when he takes power.

    Reannouncing HS2E or NPR will return a lot of Red Wall voters to him - even if their delivery dates are pushed back a bit.
    Rishi has also seemed to be the only one playing a bigger tactical game too - money for the red wall. This has been lost in the midst of all the Boris chaos but the treasury has been the one really drawing the battle lines.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    A lot of liberals find the ruthlessness that Tories display towards their leaders unseemly. Personally I think it's one of their redeeming qualities. They don't muck about. None of the sentimentality of Labour. The country (party?) always comes before any one individual.

    Is this not pretty mythical? It might not be but I'd want to see hard data to be persuaded different.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,296
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    Janus
  • Met refers itself to police watchdog over handling of Downing Street Christmas party allegations
    It comes after Baroness Jones lodged a complaint over the force's refusal to probe lockdown-breaking festive event last year
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/21/met-refers-police-watchdog-handling-downing-street-christmas/

    Met-a

  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    The problem with Rishi or Liz is their political instincts are out of tune with the prevailing public mood.
    Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
    But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
    Rishi is a complete unknown on such things - I hope that as he knows how the treasury works (and the obvious flaws in the railway documents) that he is prepared to ignore the treasury when he takes power.

    Reannouncing HS2E or NPR will return a lot of Red Wall voters to him - even if their delivery dates are pushed back a bit.
    It’s interesting, because there is only the one person who seems credible as a Prime Minister in the cabinet, in Rishi, clear favourite. But he’s handed thirty billion pounds of tax payers money to criminals! Second favourite Truss has signed all those trade deals the details and impacts of which are yet to come out in the wash.

    Opposition parties could love getting stuck into their records the next couple of years.
    If you are talking about Bounce Back Loans - yes some money has been lost but I suspect a lot more will be recovered than people expect.

    Plus something had to be done to give small firms a chance to survive and a loan administered by a third party is a lot lower risk and hassle than grants - which gave many welsh holiday lets better profits in 2020 than in 2021.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    dixiedean said:

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    The problem with Rishi or Liz is their political instincts are out of tune with the prevailing public mood.
    Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
    But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
    I’m not sure I see any alternative other than those two.

    I can’t think of the last time a PM entered office mid Parliament who hadn’t held a great office of state. Yes conventions are made to be broken I suppose, but it’s a pretty decent guiding principle.

    Who are the others? Hunt probably isn’t going to win over the membership. Priti has blotted her copy book. Gove is yesterdays man. Zahawi and Mordaunt are probably still too junior. Javid could go for it I suppose.
    There isn't anyone better than Boris in electoral terms.
    Anyone else loses more voters than they gain in short order. Even if they theoretically might do better in polling.
    Unless, as @eek points out they promise to spend yet shed loads more money.
    And the selectorate won't like that.
    It will be the most low tax of the two presented.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612
    edited December 2021
    The year of Boris's departure as PM is a tricky one to fix percentages. The decisive moment will come, but it hasn't come yet and there are hurdles to surmount, including obviously:

    1) The 54/55 letters
    2) He has to lose the election

    Neither of which are certainties in the foreseeable future. For reasons including further hurdles:

    3) Boris may be flawed but may be the candidate with the best chance (in Tory eyes) of wining the next election

    because

    4) There is no candidate with an undoubtedly clear case for being able to win it - they all have significant problems (including mad, bad, tainted by current regime, Remainer, not very bright, unknown, too posh, too unposh, being called Steve Baker, will lose seat next time, etc)

    Which means that

    5) The Tories may have the sense not to call time until they have coalesced around a candidate who could actually win the next election. And in doing so they may discover that the party is so eviscerated and the public so febrile with populism that there isn't one, because the best candidate by a mile (Hunt) is a pariah to most of his own party, and many Tory voters, because he is an able, centrist, intelligent Tory.

    As a result I place 2022 at 40% rather than 50% (and 2023 higher than 13%).

    Edit: The next election may well be an excellent one to lose.
  • eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    The problem with Rishi or Liz is their political instincts are out of tune with the prevailing public mood.
    Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
    But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
    Rishi is a complete unknown on such things - I hope that as he knows how the treasury works (and the obvious flaws in the railway documents) that he is prepared to ignore the treasury when he takes power.

    Reannouncing HS2E or NPR will return a lot of Red Wall voters to him - even if their delivery dates are pushed back a bit.
    It’s interesting, because there is only the one person who seems credible as a Prime Minister in the cabinet, in Rishi, clear favourite. But he’s handed thirty billion pounds of tax payers money to criminals! Second favourite Truss has signed all those trade deals the details and impacts of which are yet to come out in the wash.

    Opposition parties could love getting stuck into their records the next couple of years.
    To be fair, the current incumbent had a rather chequered record which up until now hasn’t done him much harm.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    Thank God there is no question of heavy cocaine use, that can really fck your heart.
    I have no personal knowledge of this, but I would lay odds that Boris does not do a lot of ‘ooter
    Petronella in the speccie says Carrie and cohort party like fck in no 10 while Bojo is the grumpy old man in the corner. My guess is it gets pressed on him.
    Yes, I believe all that, and I believe he refuses the chang

    More wine? Sure

    There are few 50-somethings who actively enjoy cocaine
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    algarkirk said:

    The year of Boris's departure as PM is a tricky one to fix percentages. Te decisive moment will come, but it hasn't come yet and there are hurdles to surmount, including obviously:

    1) The 54/55 letters
    2) He has to lose the election

    Neither of which are certainties in the foreseeable future. For reasons including further hurdles:

    3) Boris may be flawed but may be the candidate with the best chance (in Tory eyes) of wining the next election

    because

    4) There is no candidate with an undoubtedly clear case for being able to win it - they all have significant problems (including mad, bad, tainted by current regime, Remainer, not very bright, unknown, too posh, too unposh, being called Steve Baker, will lose seat next time, etc)

    Which means that

    5) The Tories may have the sense not to call time until they have coalesced around a candidate who could actually win the next election. And in doing so they may discover that the party is so eviscerated and the public so febrile with populism that there isn't one, because the best candidate by a mile (Hunt) is a pariah to most of his own party, and many Tory voters, because he is an able, centrist, intelligent Tory.

    It is much simpler than that. Boris has reset the parameters for electoral toxicity, witness the If you're happy and think Boris is a cnt clap your hands videos at darts matches etc. There is no way back for him.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    algarkirk said:

    The year of Boris's departure as PM is a tricky one to fix percentages. The decisive moment will come, but it hasn't come yet and there are hurdles to surmount, including obviously:

    1) The 54/55 letters
    2) He has to lose the election

    Neither of which are certainties in the foreseeable future. For reasons including further hurdles:

    3) Boris may be flawed but may be the candidate with the best chance (in Tory eyes) of wining the next election

    because

    4) There is no candidate with an undoubtedly clear case for being able to win it - they all have significant problems (including mad, bad, tainted by current regime, Remainer, not very bright, unknown, too posh, too unposh, being called Steve Baker, will lose seat next time, etc)

    Which means that

    5) The Tories may have the sense not to call time until they have coalesced around a candidate who could actually win the next election. And in doing so they may discover that the party is so eviscerated and the public so febrile with populism that there isn't one, because the best candidate by a mile (Hunt) is a pariah to most of his own party, and many Tory voters, because he is an able, centrist, intelligent Tory.

    As a result I place 2022 at 40% rather than 50% (and 2023 higher than 13%)

    I think it is the Party which is febrile with populism.
    The public seem to be getting rather fed up with it tbh.
  • So what would be the tipping point?

    Another scandal?

    A few more by election losses?

    An absolute pounding in the locals?

    People thinking the oven ready Brexit deal gave them dysentery?

    The Mrs deciding Number 10 is too small (it is) and wanting to move into a palace?

    There’s not that many letters to go in, can’t imagine they will get as far as May. Vote of confidence January would be my bet.
    They have to be sure that they have half plus 1 of their colleagues otherwise Boris stays unchallenged for a year

    In other words either Boris decides to stand down or they make certain they would win the vonc
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    A lot of liberals find the ruthlessness that Tories display towards their leaders unseemly. Personally I think it's one of their redeeming qualities. They don't muck about. None of the sentimentality of Labour. The country (party?) always comes before any one individual.

    But do they?
    It's oft quoted, but this is the Party which banged desks for May when she tossed away a majority.
    Seems to be based solely on the case of IDS.
    The replacement of Thatcher by Major in 1990 and May by Boris in 2019 actually had more polling impact than the replacement of IDS by Howard in 2003. Nonetheless that is 3 Tory leaders replaced midterm in the last 31 years (even excluding Cameron's post EU referendum resignation in 2016).

    Labour have not replaced a single leader midterm in the same timeframe who did not die (ie John Smith in 1994) apart from 3 times election winning Blair who they replaced with Brown in 2007 who went on to lose in 2010
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    The problem with Rishi or Liz is their political instincts are out of tune with the prevailing public mood.
    Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
    But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
    I’m not sure I see any alternative other than those two.

    I can’t think of the last time a PM entered office mid Parliament who hadn’t held a great office of state. Yes conventions are made to be broken I suppose, but it’s a pretty decent guiding principle.

    Who are the others? Hunt probably isn’t going to win over the membership. Priti has blotted her copy book. Gove is yesterdays man. Zahawi and Mordaunt are probably still too junior. Javid could go for it I suppose.
    There isn't anyone better than Boris in electoral terms.
    Anyone else loses more voters than they gain in short order. Even if they theoretically might do better in polling.
    Unless, as @eek points out they promise to spend yet shed loads more money.
    And the selectorate won't like that.
    It will be the most low tax of the two presented.
    Where do the tax cuts come from in a high inflation economy with the need to pay for social care amongst other items?

    It really is better to junk the treasury's economic investment models and increase the tax generated up north.

    Finally the selectorate won't actually care about anything beyond the size of this year's pensioner's handout - as being blunt most of them will be retired.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,153

    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    At 5 7, or is it 9?, he ain't no prop.
    Hooker would be more his style.
    Back in the amateur era, that was what we expected of a prop
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gareth_Chilcott
    "He acted in the revived stage play Up 'n' Under which was set around a rugby league sevens tournament."

    What we expected of a prop?
    I'm thinking of Chilcott's size and shape more than anything else. And also his approach to drinking.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    The problem with Rishi or Liz is their political instincts are out of tune with the prevailing public mood.
    Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
    But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
    I’m not sure I see any alternative other than those two.

    I can’t think of the last time a PM entered office mid Parliament who hadn’t held a great office of state. Yes conventions are made to be broken I suppose, but it’s a pretty decent guiding principle.

    Who are the others? Hunt probably isn’t going to win over the membership. Priti has blotted her copy book. Gove is yesterdays man. Zahawi and Mordaunt are probably still too junior. Javid could go for it I suppose.
    There isn't anyone better than Boris in electoral terms.
    Anyone else loses more voters than they gain in short order. Even if they theoretically might do better in polling.
    Unless, as @eek points out they promise to spend yet shed loads more money.
    And the selectorate won't like that.
    It will be the most low tax of the two presented.
    I’m not sure I buy the argument that Boris is the only one who can keep the electoral coalition together. I understand where the argument comes from. But I think it presupposes that people just won’t vote for a Tory if they’re not Boris Johnson. I think a new leader would get a fair hearing. Beyond that, who knows.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    Thank God there is no question of heavy cocaine use, that can really fck your heart.
    I have no personal knowledge of this, but I would lay odds that Boris does not do a lot of ‘ooter
    Petronella in the speccie says Carrie and cohort party like fck in no 10 while Bojo is the grumpy old man in the corner. My guess is it gets pressed on him.
    Yes, I believe all that, and I believe he refuses the chang

    More wine? Sure

    There are few 50-somethings who actively enjoy cocaine
    Tbh, there's not a lot of 30 somethings that do either. At least judging by my own friends who are all mid or late 30s, I think we're more likely to go down the party drug route like mandy or 2cp rather than something that just makes everyone cunty like coke.

    The other thing that's been putting people off is the reports that party drugs are being laced with fentanyl to get people addicted. The guy we bought from has ended up in jail and now we don't have anyone who we trust to not fuck us over. We really need to legalise it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    The problem with Rishi or Liz is their political instincts are out of tune with the prevailing public mood.
    Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
    But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
    I’m not sure I see any alternative other than those two.

    I can’t think of the last time a PM entered office mid Parliament who hadn’t held a great office of state. Yes conventions are made to be broken I suppose, but it’s a pretty decent guiding principle.

    Who are the others? Hunt probably isn’t going to win over the membership. Priti has blotted her copy book. Gove is yesterdays man. Zahawi and Mordaunt are probably still too junior. Javid could go for it I suppose.
    There isn't anyone better than Boris in electoral terms.
    Anyone else loses more voters than they gain in short order. Even if they theoretically might do better in polling.
    Unless, as @eek points out they promise to spend yet shed loads more money.
    And the selectorate won't like that.
    It will be the most low tax of the two presented.
    Where do the tax cuts come from in a high inflation economy with the need to pay for social care amongst other items?

    It really is better to junk the treasury's economic investment models and increase the tax generated up north.
    Where they come from is a question which won't be asked or answered in a leadership campaign. Boris has seen to that.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,153
    Another day's encouraging figures from South Africa - the decline in cases continues.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612
    IshmaelZ said:

    algarkirk said:

    The year of Boris's departure as PM is a tricky one to fix percentages. Te decisive moment will come, but it hasn't come yet and there are hurdles to surmount, including obviously:

    1) The 54/55 letters
    2) He has to lose the election

    Neither of which are certainties in the foreseeable future. For reasons including further hurdles:

    3) Boris may be flawed but may be the candidate with the best chance (in Tory eyes) of wining the next election

    because

    4) There is no candidate with an undoubtedly clear case for being able to win it - they all have significant problems (including mad, bad, tainted by current regime, Remainer, not very bright, unknown, too posh, too unposh, being called Steve Baker, will lose seat next time, etc)

    Which means that

    5) The Tories may have the sense not to call time until they have coalesced around a candidate who could actually win the next election. And in doing so they may discover that the party is so eviscerated and the public so febrile with populism that there isn't one, because the best candidate by a mile (Hunt) is a pariah to most of his own party, and many Tory voters, because he is an able, centrist, intelligent Tory.

    It is much simpler than that. Boris has reset the parameters for electoral toxicity, witness the If you're happy and think Boris is a cnt clap your hands videos at darts matches etc. There is no way back for him.
    I'm inclined to agree though I don't thinkm it is certain, but that isn't the issue addressed in the question of the odds on the year of his departure. This may depend more on the party having an idea as to who can win instead. I don't think it currently has. The year of departure is neither fixed by darts watchers nor the voters of Hartlepool (often the same people).

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    The problem with Rishi or Liz is their political instincts are out of tune with the prevailing public mood.
    Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
    But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
    Rishi is a complete unknown on such things - I hope that as he knows how the treasury works (and the obvious flaws in the railway documents) that he is prepared to ignore the treasury when he takes power.

    Reannouncing HS2E or NPR will return a lot of Red Wall voters to him - even if their delivery dates are pushed back a bit.
    It’s interesting, because there is only the one person who seems credible as a Prime Minister in the cabinet, in Rishi, clear favourite. But he’s handed thirty billion pounds of tax payers money to criminals! Second favourite Truss has signed all those trade deals the details and impacts of which are yet to come out in the wash.

    Opposition parties could love getting stuck into their records the next couple of years.
    To be fair, the current incumbent had a rather chequered record which up until now hasn’t done him much harm.
    True. But the point being a new PM from this cabinet is hardly fresh start, they come with baggage.

    The other interesting factor is Boris had reach where Conservatives usually struggle to go. Will Labour voters voting Tory first time Boris fans embrace his successor, or even feel defrauded?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    eek said:

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    The problem with Rishi or Liz is their political instincts are out of tune with the prevailing public mood.
    Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
    But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
    Rishi is a complete unknown on such things - I hope that as he knows how the treasury works (and the obvious flaws in the railway documents) that he is prepared to ignore the treasury when he takes power.

    Reannouncing HS2E or NPR will return a lot of Red Wall voters to him - even if their delivery dates are pushed back a bit.
    It’s interesting, because there is only the one person who seems credible as a Prime Minister in the cabinet, in Rishi, clear favourite. But he’s handed thirty billion pounds of tax payers money to criminals! Second favourite Truss has signed all those trade deals the details and impacts of which are yet to come out in the wash.

    Opposition parties could love getting stuck into their records the next couple of years.
    If you are talking about Bounce Back Loans - yes some money has been lost but I suspect a lot more will be recovered than people expect.

    Plus something had to be done to give small firms a chance to survive and a loan administered by a third party is a lot lower risk and hassle than grants - which gave many welsh holiday lets better profits in 2020 than in 2021.
    The numbers for the Bounce Back Loans etc being fraudulent were arrived at by multiplying the amount given out by a simple factor of how much fraud to expect. Whether that is applicable or not is yet to be seen.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    The problem with Rishi or Liz is their political instincts are out of tune with the prevailing public mood.
    Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
    But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
    I’m not sure I see any alternative other than those two.

    I can’t think of the last time a PM entered office mid Parliament who hadn’t held a great office of state. Yes conventions are made to be broken I suppose, but it’s a pretty decent guiding principle.

    Who are the others? Hunt probably isn’t going to win over the membership. Priti has blotted her copy book. Gove is yesterdays man. Zahawi and Mordaunt are probably still too junior. Javid could go for it I suppose.
    There isn't anyone better than Boris in electoral terms.
    Anyone else loses more voters than they gain in short order. Even if they theoretically might do better in polling.
    Unless, as @eek points out they promise to spend yet shed loads more money.
    And the selectorate won't like that.
    It will be the most low tax of the two presented.
    That is nonsense. There's nobody better than Boris [2019] electorally, but things have moved on. I have never known such universal, cross-party, cross-social class, loathing for a politician.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    Totally puzzled by the respect for Jeremy Junior-Doctors / Pandemic-Preparedness-Plan Hunt.

    Also he comes across as a weirdo on camera.

    He has no chance at all. If he makes the final two he will handily lose to whoever he faces. He won’t make the final two.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    I was struck by this from a Tory MP who didn’t rebel on covid measures the other day and isn’t *publicly* critical of Boris Johnson:

    “It’s irrelevant. No one trusts the scientists or the PM. It's a disaster …He has to resign, to get the public listening again. What a mess!”


    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1473391671081582596
  • Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    At 5 7, or is it 9?, he ain't no prop.
    Hooker would be more his style.
    Back in the amateur era, that was what we expected of a prop
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gareth_Chilcott
    "He acted in the revived stage play Up 'n' Under which was set around a rugby league sevens tournament."

    What we expected of a prop?
    I'm thinking of Chilcott's size and shape more than anything else. And also his approach to drinking.
    Oh sure, but from the wiki page I was most surprised by his acting career. I mean, a union prop playing in a league sevens tournament? Ludicrous!!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    edited December 2021

    So what would be the tipping point?

    Another scandal?

    A few more by election losses?

    An absolute pounding in the locals?

    People thinking the oven ready Brexit deal gave them dysentery?

    The Mrs deciding Number 10 is too small (it is) and wanting to move into a palace?

    There’s not that many letters to go in, can’t imagine they will get as far as May. Vote of confidence January would be my bet.
    They have to be sure that they have half plus 1 of their colleagues otherwise Boris stays unchallenged for a year

    In other words either Boris decides to stand down or they make certain they would win the vonc
    You think there is doubt Boris loses the vote of no confidence in new year? Seriously?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    My word, Northern Ireland ain't taking any chances on Omicron.



    :smiley:


    A question.

    The "Magennis' Bar", in Belfast, has a mens toilet, 4 foot by 3 foot.

    In the past, mixed groups of over 71 people have congregated in this toilet.

    Will Sinn Fein undertake that full social distancing will be applied to all alibis in future?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    Thank God there is no question of heavy cocaine use, that can really fck your heart.
    I have no personal knowledge of this, but I would lay odds that Boris does not do a lot of ‘ooter
    Petronella in the speccie says Carrie and cohort party like fck in no 10 while Bojo is the grumpy old man in the corner. My guess is it gets pressed on him.
    Yes, I believe all that, and I believe he refuses the chang

    More wine? Sure

    There are few 50-somethings who actively enjoy cocaine
    Tbh, there's not a lot of 30 somethings that do either. At least judging by my own friends who are all mid or late 30s, I think we're more likely to go down the party drug route like mandy or 2cp rather than something that just makes everyone cunty like coke.

    The other thing that's been putting people off is the reports that party drugs are being laced with fentanyl to get people addicted. The guy we bought from has ended up in jail and now we don't have anyone who we trust to not fuck us over. We really need to legalise it.
    Or you could just try not taking drugs?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    10 DAYS? Hey man, I don't wanna rain on your parade, but we're not gonna last ten HOURS! Those viruses are gonna come in here just like they did before. And they're gonna come in here and they're gonna come in here AND THEY'RE GONNA GET US!
    Can it, Private Hicks.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,485
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    Thank God there is no question of heavy cocaine use, that can really fck your heart.
    I have no personal knowledge of this, but I would lay odds that Boris does not do a lot of ‘ooter
    Petronella in the speccie says Carrie and cohort party like fck in no 10 while Bojo is the grumpy old man in the corner. My guess is it gets pressed on him.
    Speaking purely hypothetically, I cannot see Carrie absolutely battering the chang and then coming up with policies like "let's save a load of dogs and cats from Kabul."

    Mandy? Yes. Wizz? Well, it can give you a bee in your bonnet about stuff.

    Animal rescue policy made in the afterglow of an acid trip? Quite possibly. And look at that taste in decor. It screams comfy corner to K-hole in.

    But I cannot imagine Downing Street to be wall to wall nose candy. Unless Gove shows up of course, then all bets are off ;)
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    So what would be the tipping point?

    Another scandal?

    A few more by election losses?

    An absolute pounding in the locals?

    People thinking the oven ready Brexit deal gave them dysentery?

    The Mrs deciding Number 10 is too small (it is) and wanting to move into a palace?

    There’s not that many letters to go in, can’t imagine they will get as far as May. Vote of confidence January would be my bet.
    They have to be sure that they have half plus 1 of their colleagues otherwise Boris stays unchallenged for a year

    In other words either Boris decides to stand down or they make certain they would win the vonc
    You think there is doubt Boris loses the vote of no confidence in new year? Seriously?
    It's possible - 50%+1 is a high barrier to hit.

    Remember the ERG thought they would win in December 2018 - and they lost be a significant number.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    Thank God there is no question of heavy cocaine use, that can really fck your heart.
    I have no personal knowledge of this, but I would lay odds that Boris does not do a lot of ‘ooter
    Petronella in the speccie says Carrie and cohort party like fck in no 10 while Bojo is the grumpy old man in the corner. My guess is it gets pressed on him.
    Yes, I believe all that, and I believe he refuses the chang

    More wine? Sure

    There are few 50-somethings who actively enjoy cocaine
    Tbh, there's not a lot of 30 somethings that do either. At least judging by my own friends who are all mid or late 30s, I think we're more likely to go down the party drug route like mandy or 2cp rather than something that just makes everyone cunty like coke.

    The other thing that's been putting people off is the reports that party drugs are being laced with fentanyl to get people addicted. The guy we bought from has ended up in jail and now we don't have anyone who we trust to not fuck us over. We really need to legalise it.
    Or you could just try not taking drugs?
    Why?
  • moonshine said:

    Totally puzzled by the respect for Jeremy Junior-Doctors / Pandemic-Preparedness-Plan Hunt.

    Also he comes across as a weirdo on camera.

    He has no chance at all. If he makes the final two he will handily lose to whoever he faces. He won’t make the final two.

    I suspect some of his backing comes from his more pro EU stance but I just do not see him being in the two put to the members
  • boulayboulay Posts: 368
    If Boris goes sooner I think it will be a back room deal - men in grey suits approach, tell him his number is up and he can step down blaming babies, covid etc and leave “head held high”….. hmmm. But he will be more marketable than the alternative which I think is that if he goes later then he will go against his will and amid major rancour which will reduce his marketability potentially so goes back to first option which is better for him long term.

    He’s going to go, best he goes before tarnished completely.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    Thank God there is no question of heavy cocaine use, that can really fck your heart.
    I have no personal knowledge of this, but I would lay odds that Boris does not do a lot of ‘ooter
    Petronella in the speccie says Carrie and cohort party like fck in no 10 while Bojo is the grumpy old man in the corner. My guess is it gets pressed on him.
    Yes, I believe all that, and I believe he refuses the chang

    More wine? Sure

    There are few 50-somethings who actively enjoy cocaine
    Tbh, there's not a lot of 30 somethings that do either. At least judging by my own friends who are all mid or late 30s, I think we're more likely to go down the party drug route like mandy or 2cp rather than something that just makes everyone cunty like coke.

    The other thing that's been putting people off is the reports that party drugs are being laced with fentanyl to get people addicted. The guy we bought from has ended up in jail and now we don't have anyone who we trust to not fuck us over. We really need to legalise it.
    Or you could just try not taking drugs?
    Don’t be ridiculous
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    eek said:

    So what would be the tipping point?

    Another scandal?

    A few more by election losses?

    An absolute pounding in the locals?

    People thinking the oven ready Brexit deal gave them dysentery?

    The Mrs deciding Number 10 is too small (it is) and wanting to move into a palace?

    There’s not that many letters to go in, can’t imagine they will get as far as May. Vote of confidence January would be my bet.
    They have to be sure that they have half plus 1 of their colleagues otherwise Boris stays unchallenged for a year

    In other words either Boris decides to stand down or they make certain they would win the vonc
    You think there is doubt Boris loses the vote of no confidence in new year? Seriously?
    It's possible - 50%+1 is a high barrier to hit.

    Remember the ERG thought they would win in December 2018 - and they lost be a significant number.
    That was an unusual time and an unusual VONC. Because while hardly any in the parliamentary party wanted her to fight another election, more than half the party was prepared to save her to prevent No Deal (how quaint thinking back to how preoccupied people got over that).

    With BoJo, there may be a small number of MPs who are concerned he’d be replaced with an anti lockdowner. But these will be small in number. My expectation is that he won’t let it go to the vote and stands aside once the letters are in. Or probably even before then once it’s clear that it’s imminent.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    My word, Northern Ireland ain't taking any chances on Omicron.



    :smiley:

    https://youtu.be/tuxKY8Mnpvc
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    eek said:

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Word of caution regarding the idea of a VONC after the local elections: I can’t think of a time when local elections have ever triggered a VONC. The problem with local election results is that the media starts going into overdrive and if they’re a disaster, MPs tend to be hit with a kind of collective, desperate inertia. They want to do something but it looks reactive and panicky so they hold fire.

    Personally I think if they want to go for it they should do it early spring. Let Boris absorb the latest covid gloom, get some green shoots going, then bring in a new fresh broom. For Rishi I feel there is no better chance for a shot at the top while his political capital remains high - although having the NI increase hit halfway through a leadership election campaign wouldn’t be ideal, I suppose.

    For Liz it would be an opportunity to get moving before the Brexit crap hits the fan.

    The problem with Rishi or Liz is their political instincts are out of tune with the prevailing public mood.
    Sure, they can probably manage to go to the CBI and not waffle about children's TV characters.
    But radical small state supply side stuff won't wash either.
    Rishi is a complete unknown on such things - I hope that as he knows how the treasury works (and the obvious flaws in the railway documents) that he is prepared to ignore the treasury when he takes power.

    Reannouncing HS2E or NPR will return a lot of Red Wall voters to him - even if their delivery dates are pushed back a bit.
    It’s interesting, because there is only the one person who seems credible as a Prime Minister in the cabinet, in Rishi, clear favourite. But he’s handed thirty billion pounds of tax payers money to criminals! Second favourite Truss has signed all those trade deals the details and impacts of which are yet to come out in the wash.

    Opposition parties could love getting stuck into their records the next couple of years.
    If you are talking about Bounce Back Loans - yes some money has been lost but I suspect a lot more will be recovered than people expect.

    Plus something had to be done to give small firms a chance to survive and a loan administered by a third party is a lot lower risk and hassle than grants - which gave many welsh holiday lets better profits in 2020 than in 2021.
    It’s an interesting one, because what made Rishi Chancellor is Javid refusing to let Cummings number 10 run the show, the Cummings and goings as it were. Truss is only foreign Secretary because Rabb was so rubbish. There could be plenty about their records in Boris Johnson World that may come back and shred them.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9738735/Fraud-blunders-Covid-support-schemes-cost-taxpayers-30bn-MPs-warn.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/22/fifth-of-uk-covid-contracts-raised-red-flags-for-possible-corruption
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    Thank God there is no question of heavy cocaine use, that can really fck your heart.
    I have no personal knowledge of this, but I would lay odds that Boris does not do a lot of ‘ooter
    Petronella in the speccie says Carrie and cohort party like fck in no 10 while Bojo is the grumpy old man in the corner. My guess is it gets pressed on him.
    Yes, I believe all that, and I believe he refuses the chang

    More wine? Sure

    There are few 50-somethings who actively enjoy cocaine
    Tbh, there's not a lot of 30 somethings that do either. At least judging by my own friends who are all mid or late 30s, I think we're more likely to go down the party drug route like mandy or 2cp rather than something that just makes everyone cunty like coke.

    The other thing that's been putting people off is the reports that party drugs are being laced with fentanyl to get people addicted. The guy we bought from has ended up in jail and now we don't have anyone who we trust to not fuck us over. We really need to legalise it.
    Or you could just try not taking drugs?
    Why?
    You said that you are concerned about the stuff being spiked with something nasty. The way to eliminate the risk is abstinence.

  • IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    10 DAYS? Hey man, I don't wanna rain on your parade, but we're not gonna last ten HOURS! Those viruses are gonna come in here just like they did before. And they're gonna come in here and they're gonna come in here AND THEY'RE GONNA GET US!
    Can it, Private Hicks.
    Hudson, sir! He's Hicks!
  • Kind of mad that this guy's twitter name is SS heil.. (I'd guess he's Jewish; he must have realised?)

    Steven Sheil
    @SSheil
    Sorting through some books I found this - one of the maddest pulp paperbacks I’ve read, in which a young man discovers that Hitler’s brain was transplanted into the body of a beautiful young German countess. Unfortunately he only discovers this while they’re having sex.
    https://twitter.com/SSheil/status/1362150041843085312

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    Thank God there is no question of heavy cocaine use, that can really fck your heart.
    I have no personal knowledge of this, but I would lay odds that Boris does not do a lot of ‘ooter
    Petronella in the speccie says Carrie and cohort party like fck in no 10 while Bojo is the grumpy old man in the corner. My guess is it gets pressed on him.
    Yes, I believe all that, and I believe he refuses the chang

    More wine? Sure

    There are few 50-somethings who actively enjoy cocaine
    Tbh, there's not a lot of 30 somethings that do either. At least judging by my own friends who are all mid or late 30s, I think we're more likely to go down the party drug route like mandy or 2cp rather than something that just makes everyone cunty like coke.

    The other thing that's been putting people off is the reports that party drugs are being laced with fentanyl to get people addicted. The guy we bought from has ended up in jail and now we don't have anyone who we trust to not fuck us over. We really need to legalise it.
    Or you could just try not taking drugs?
    Why?
    You said that you are concerned about the stuff being spiked with something nasty. The way to eliminate the risk is abstinence.

    Just like the way to avoid pregnancy is abstinence?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    Thank God there is no question of heavy cocaine use, that can really fck your heart.
    I have no personal knowledge of this, but I would lay odds that Boris does not do a lot of ‘ooter
    Petronella in the speccie says Carrie and cohort party like fck in no 10 while Bojo is the grumpy old man in the corner. My guess is it gets pressed on him.
    Speaking purely hypothetically, I cannot see Carrie absolutely battering the chang and then coming up with policies like "let's save a load of dogs and cats from Kabul."

    Mandy? Yes. Wizz? Well, it can give you a bee in your bonnet about stuff.

    Animal rescue policy made in the afterglow of an acid trip? Quite possibly. And look at that taste in decor. It screams comfy corner to K-hole in.

    But I cannot imagine Downing Street to be wall to wall nose candy. Unless Gove shows up of course, then all bets are off ;)
    The dog and cat thing was because she is a brainless racist cnt. Hitler did meth, but that isn't what made him Hitler.
  • MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    Thank God there is no question of heavy cocaine use, that can really fck your heart.
    I have no personal knowledge of this, but I would lay odds that Boris does not do a lot of ‘ooter
    Petronella in the speccie says Carrie and cohort party like fck in no 10 while Bojo is the grumpy old man in the corner. My guess is it gets pressed on him.
    Yes, I believe all that, and I believe he refuses the chang

    More wine? Sure

    There are few 50-somethings who actively enjoy cocaine
    Tbh, there's not a lot of 30 somethings that do either. At least judging by my own friends who are all mid or late 30s, I think we're more likely to go down the party drug route like mandy or 2cp rather than something that just makes everyone cunty like coke.

    The other thing that's been putting people off is the reports that party drugs are being laced with fentanyl to get people addicted. The guy we bought from has ended up in jail and now we don't have anyone who we trust to not fuck us over. We really need to legalise it.
    Or you could just try not taking drugs?
    I don't drink. I don't smoke. I don't do anything that's bad for me.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    2022 nailed on

    Mind you 2021 can be backed at 90 on betfair, might have a tenner. 10 days is a long time in politics

    Check the rules. Are you betting on when Boris announces he will step down, or is it when he is formally replaced? Then add a fudge factor because Betfair could settle it based on what colour tie he is wearing; Betfair has form!
    At odds of 90 or even 200 on betfair laying 2021 makes sense. The only way Boris leaves office in 2021 is via a fatal heart attack.
    He's a fat muscular old fck, with Xmas dinner to come. I wouldn't be laying the heart attack.
    Genes tho. His dad, who he increasingly resembles, is still hale and hearty and tippling wine and slapping female arses in his early 80s. They both have that stocky, enduring, prop forward physique. It can take a lot of punishment
    Thank God there is no question of heavy cocaine use, that can really fck your heart.
    I have no personal knowledge of this, but I would lay odds that Boris does not do a lot of ‘ooter
    Petronella in the speccie says Carrie and cohort party like fck in no 10 while Bojo is the grumpy old man in the corner. My guess is it gets pressed on him.
    Yes, I believe all that, and I believe he refuses the chang

    More wine? Sure

    There are few 50-somethings who actively enjoy cocaine
    Tbh, there's not a lot of 30 somethings that do either. At least judging by my own friends who are all mid or late 30s, I think we're more likely to go down the party drug route like mandy or 2cp rather than something that just makes everyone cunty like coke.

    The other thing that's been putting people off is the reports that party drugs are being laced with fentanyl to get people addicted. The guy we bought from has ended up in jail and now we don't have anyone who we trust to not fuck us over. We really need to legalise it.
    Or you could just try not taking drugs?
    I don't drink. I don't smoke. I don't do anything that's bad for me.
    Do you not age?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    boulay said:

    If Boris goes sooner I think it will be a back room deal - men in grey suits approach, tell him his number is up and he can step down blaming babies, covid etc and leave “head held high”….. hmmm. But he will be more marketable than the alternative which I think is that if he goes later then he will go against his will and amid major rancour which will reduce his marketability potentially so goes back to first option which is better for him long term.

    He’s going to go, best he goes before tarnished completely.

    Yep - but he's already fairly tarnished and it won't take much to destroy him completely.

    TSE pointed out in the past that he wants to beat May's tenure length and ideally Cameron's. The latter is impossible but it's easy to see Boris trying to continue even when everyone is saying time to go..
This discussion has been closed.