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Sunak and Truss still favourites in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com
Sunak and Truss still favourites in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com
Undoubtedly this has been a bad week also for the prime minister and the question is being asked all the time as to whether his period as PM could soon be over.
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(only kidding!
So I am staying out.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10322797/New-head-charity-watchdog-forced-resign-starting-job.html
Or is it not just the PM which is the issue?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diH8TXZKfuQ
Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD
Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else
"Anecdote: brother-in-law works for UCLH (albeit in a non-clinical capacity.) Has described the hospital as being "overrun" with new Covid patients.
As with many, many other examples quoted in the newspapers and elsewhere through the Autumn and into Winter, they are "mostly unvaccinated."
Nothing will be done about this though. The general consensus from both the politicians and the medics seems to be that most refusers are not hardcore anti-vaxxer nuts but distrustful and/or scared people who need to be slowly, gently, patiently coaxed into compliance, or they'll simply dig their heels in more. The fact that we've already been trying to talk them down, unsuccessfully, for a year, and don't have another year, or two, or five, to turn the situation around is, of course, never mentioned. And there's no political will to get brutal with them. Apparently Draconian lockdowns for everyone = perfectly OK, let's have more please; universal vaccination mandates = unforgiveable violation of human rights.
Frankly, I can understand why you want them punished. To be honest, so do I. I was driven halfway round the bend by the last lockdown; husband is clinically extremely vulnerable. We both want Covid crushed as soon as possible and, if we had the authority to do it, would have no compunctions at all about making the lives of refusers unbearable. But Parliament won't do that, so the suffering will go on."
++++
Yes, I agree with all of that. I was being hyperbolic when I said "put them in camps" - but not because I object to camps (what is hard lockdown but a vast jail for all of us? A kind of camp?) more that it is simply impractical
I agree with the PB-ers who suggest financial sanctions. Make antivaxxers pay for their hospital stays, make them pay a tax - a jizyah - for their status as unvaxxed. And if they have no money, take their possessions and sell them, slowly but surely
Another hard long lockdown will do incalculable damage to us all. Let the miscreants squeal in pain
But wouldn't Tory MPs go for someone outside of his top team, if they want a change of course?
The endgame for Covid could and should have only been that people get their vaccines and then the virus is let free to rip through everyone naturally. Any antivaxxers who refuse the vaccine would get natural Covid immunity then, if they survive. Anyone vaccinated would get natural immunity too, with a much greater chance of survival.
The problem is that despite vaccines being rolled out, countries have been unwilling to let go of lockdown protections. A question for a long time is even after vaccinations how are nations like New Zealand, or ourselves to an extent, going to let go of restrictions.
Omicron seems to be the answer. Lower mortality per person and so transmissive its going to rip through the population whether you wanted it to or not.
We might lose one or two iron men who seemed invincible before now, but half the world that's been blipped away for a few years will come back to life.
It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes
WTF?
Let's hope for all our sakes the former is right, I am now going to read @turbotubbs' links and with that I wish you a good night
I hope this is what is about to happen. absurdly stupendous numbers of infections, the ONS survey picking up double digit rates of infection, and a relatively modest impact on the NHS.
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1471596508491526144?s=20
I’d venture to suggest that if we stopped routine testing we’d barely notice it’s passing through the population. Some more sick people in hospital and some more deaths, but the vast, vast majority going about their business.
The all of the terrifying stuff seems to be the stupid models which are not real data, it's all made up and the idiot politicians fall for it every time.
The initial data showed that it has high exponential growth, which it does, initially. HMG/SAGE/Tw@tter then plugged exponential growth into their Buzz Lightyear models that go TO INFINITY AND BEYOND! and said "OMG exponential growth is bad, this is pretty terrifying".
The latter data shows that oh yes, exponential growth doesn't actually go to infinity, so it stops just as suddenly as it starts. But this isn't in their models, so that doesn't ease the terror. And the idiots using broken Buzz Lightyear models keep saying "Danger! Danger!" because they're petrified of the inevitable inquiry and can't wrap their heads around the fact that exponential growth doesn't go on to infinity.
Accept that the people involved are being stupid, and you can reconcile it all.
It's why I don't bet on politics - I wouldn't sufficiently separate personal wishes from betting judgement.
It was London/the south east's pants wettingly gigantic winter spike that skews the UK numbers.
I see no particular reason to suppose that a successor wouldn't emerge from the cabinet. After all, none of them are particularly associated with Johnsonism as a political project or philosophy, because no such thing exists.
Been a while since we've had one of those.
But you have been spot on correct about this. The simple answer is it is still too early to tell. There is too much conflicting data. So much so that each poster is able to cherry pick it to fit their own pre-conceived ideas.
One thing is for sure. It could turn out to be anything. But it ain't a fluffy kitten. It is an unpleasant, debilitating, draining illness for me.
Not anywhere near hospital. But not anything at all pleasant in the slightest. It's 10 days now. I doubt I'll be fit for Monday.
And yes it is a scary illness for millions of people. If I had a dose two weeks back I am still coughing now and still a tiny bit wobbly and at the time it floored me entirely. Who knows
I have friends with Long Covid which is a genuine thing and can be quite hideous.
Get better!
No wonder Comedy Dave is so upset.
I am fairly relaxed personally, triple jabbed, young, healthy etc. But i don't think people quite understand what 29% milder means....it doesn't mean its now all sweetness and light.
But if the Omicron is milder and more transmissible than Delta then it is a 'blessing', even if it feels bad, its replacing something worse. So potentially closer to the fluffy kitten than the devourer of worlds.
The irony of them saying how fine they felt but everyone needs to take an LFT was exquisite.
And a total absence of shortness of breath or a cough. Been able to exercise not quite as normal, but it has been muscle soreness and a need to fall asleep rather than panting that has been the issue.
Still asleep more than I am awake. Even though no symptoms for five days.
My guess is that Omicron is already massively rife and in most cases somehow gives neither symptoms nor positive test results. But I don't know if that stands up to the evidence we have; it's only a guess.
Eric Topol
@EricTopol
·
1h
Denmark today: 11,194 cases (yesterday 10,000), likely now Omicron dominant, highest per capita case load in world, over 1,400/million (very high % testing country). 2nd now is Switzerland 1054/M.
Good news to date: Very low fatalities
BBC news website
I wonder if I had it, despite a total of 5 negative tests with no positive ones. I have had a 'head cold' for 2 weeks now and it refuses to go away. Seriously bunged up nose, mild headache, and a scratchy throat at the start that migrated down to the throat and an occasional cough (not dry). I am tired now, not so much as a flu-type fatigue but rather from shortage of sleep as I keep on waking up unable to breath through my bunged up nose.
Drawbacks of Saj: 1) he is completely bald, and 2) his name isn't much fun to say. Which syllable do you stress? I generally favour equal stress on all four syllables:SADGE-IDD-JAV-IDD. Not as much fun as saying Rishi Sunak with the pleasantly drawn out 'ooo'; or the pleasingly short, choppy Liz-Truss.
Liz Truss is rapidly becoming a figure of fun having montrously oversold her achievements. The Donald Trump of the Tory Party
Richi's 'Eat out to help out' is thought to be the only slogan more lethal than Gerald Ratner's 'II's total crap"
I tested positive on the day of my booster. 6 months to the day from second jab.
Which, remarkably, was barely known about only middle of last week.
I'm 55 and smoke and drink too much. But I am fit for my age and a BMI below 20.
Not a patch on pneumonia or pleurisy. But some people are going to be sick for weeks, "mild" or not.
I have unbeaten 100% record in my politics betting (what they call one match winning streak) my second political bet is/was as a few weeks back, Saj for Boris replacement £50 14-1.
Big G is right, clear front runner is Rishi Sunak. He is okay on TV and excellent at dispatch box.
Problem. He does carry quite a handicap into this race.
It’s the Job of himself and his department to carry out due diligence on spending on behalf of the taxpayer. And after the last two years there are some good questions needing good answers about his performance.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9738735/Fraud-blunders-Covid-support-schemes-cost-taxpayers-30bn-MPs-warn.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/22/fifth-of-uk-covid-contracts-raised-red-flags-for-possible-corruption
I’m not a expert, just a failed artist whose fallen off many horses, but the first question I understand is he gave awful lot of money to banks for quick distribution, now complains the banks didn’t do enough due diligence in handing out this taxpayer money. This obstacle can either bring him down in leadership race, or he gets the job and this dogs him and tarnishes his credibility.
The second question is any iffy covid contracts can lead back to asking his department what was the part you played in them? Again, can either bring him down in leadership race, or he gets the job and this dogs him and tarnishes his credibility.
These are clear differentials between him and other candidates.
Currently, Rishi is under attack from his own side, the Conservatives, the Party of Business demanding action on lockdown by stealth killing businesses. In his car crash interview today, Boris could not explain the difference between his line, and the C-MO line. Can Rishi?
And those are just the known knowns as they say.
Saj seems able. Likeable. Resigned on principle and proved right to (see the second link) and good natured to joke about it in his resignation speech. More recently the Tory benches masked up virtually overnight when he told them to. His backstory is growing up in flat above shop in rundown high street. He is archetypal Tory Leader candidate. At 14-1 could go deep into this race.
But it isn't "will not have any noticeable effect on the economy" mild either.
Major was able to beat Heseltine after Thatcher resigned as polls showed him beating Kinnock too
It has been a lot less bad than I feared. Particularly the no gasping for breath, which sounds horrible.
If everyone is like me, then folk will have a couple of weeks off work then be fine. I have some advantages, and some disadvantages in terms of being vulnerable. And everyone reacts differently anyways.
One thing you are spot on right about is this. If the way I reckon I caught it is true, and if it isn't, then I'm at a total loss, everyone is going to get it very quickly. There isn't anything, short of not leaving the house going to stop it.
Thatcher- charismatic
Major - dull
Blair - charismatic
Brown - dull
Cameron - charismatic
May - dull
Johnson - charismatic
I think if Johnson goes the Tories will be looking for dull and competent
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021
Of course there is one political figure about who does dull extraordinarily well.
The Tories better get in there first.
The plus point for her probably was no-one was likely paying attention.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution
🚨 | BREAKING: Plans are being drawn up for a two week circuit breaker after Christmas, which would ban indoor mixing and have the rule of six outdoors. Pubs and restaurants outdoors only
Via @thetimes
"Weddings would be limited to 15 people and funerals 30 during the potential circuit breaker"
“Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Even with lesser variants, the first week it just applying the wheel to the oil tanker, in which you have now just asked everybody to spend more time with each other.
The 2 weeks will just see skyrocketing transmission.
Boosters not lockdown
Just 'plans' though. There's plans for lots of things.
It will of course be extended. All of January at least. Possibly all of feb. We are right back in the nightmare