Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sunak and Truss still favourites in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageSunak and Truss still favourites in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com

Undoubtedly this has been a bad week also for the prime minister and the question is being asked all the time as to whether his period as PM could soon be over.

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Anyway. I'm out of all quarantine tomorrow.
    One of the unexpected joys has been the total absence of a TV.
    Do I want to watch anything on TV or Netflix? I haven't for 10 days. No films. Nothing. The peace and quiet has been blissful.

    Was that by choice? Tonight watched the latest Grand Tour - a reminder of what the BBC lost over a row about dinner.
    I found it a bit weird, in the sense of its was a decent old style Top Gear, but that isn't what they have been doing....it was in some ways disappointing as the "specials" are supposed to be kinda well special....no super exotic location, with some epic road trip.

    I think that is the problem with the Grand Tour, it doesn't really know what it is. Where as Clarkson's Farm was great, because it was a very clear what sort of show it was trying to be.
    I thought the Scottish Grand Tour was rather good - funny and clever. And sometimes hilarious. It helped that they finally accepted that the whole thing is contrived, and staged, and then they just got on with the jokes and the insights. That got rid of the awkward *scripted* quality - by paradoxically admitting it is all scripted

    Shame if they have gone backwards from that
    The French one had plenty of funny lines, but doing one all about the French and not even been in France, is a bit weird....also, no "challenge". It was basically an hour of them farting around in different French cars, which was mildly amusing, but no sense of any real core idea or grand road trip / amazing scenery etc.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    Second like Truss.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    Foxy said:

    Second like Truss.

    Faster than an English opener's return to the shed. Impressive.
  • Fourth-rate like the England squad.
  • dixiedean said:

    Anyway. I'm out of all quarantine tomorrow.
    One of the unexpected joys has been the total absence of a TV.
    Do I want to watch anything on TV or Netflix? I haven't for 10 days. No films. Nothing. The peace and quiet has been blissful.

    Was that by choice? Tonight watched the latest Grand Tour - a reminder of what the BBC lost over a row about dinner.
    It was more a row about Jeremy Clarkson punching a colleague in the face, to be fair.
    "Politicalbetting.com is like doing a jigsaw: a pointless way to pass the time until you die!"

    (only kidding! :lol: )
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    Fourth-rate like the England squad.

    As high as that? Never has the 2010-11 side looked so far away...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    I want to lay Sunak but this is a Tory party that went for May despite her grossly naked triangulation during the EuroRef. I thought MPs would see through that and reject her.

    So I am staying out.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,162
    "John Major 2022" sounds like an idea for a sci-fi series. Like Sherlock Holmes in the 22nd Century, or whatever that cartoon was.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    The Charity Boss photo isn't anywhere near as raunchy as I expected...its weird, who does that, but it seems a bit like the #10 parties, nowhere near as exciting as one might imagine.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10322797/New-head-charity-watchdog-forced-resign-starting-job.html
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866

    "John Major 2022" sounds like an idea for a sci-fi series. Like Sherlock Holmes in the 22nd Century, or whatever that cartoon was.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulysses_31
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Anyway. I'm out of all quarantine tomorrow.
    One of the unexpected joys has been the total absence of a TV.
    Do I want to watch anything on TV or Netflix? I haven't for 10 days. No films. Nothing. The peace and quiet has been blissful.

    Was that by choice? Tonight watched the latest Grand Tour - a reminder of what the BBC lost over a row about dinner.
    I found it a bit weird, in the sense of its was a decent old style Top Gear, but that isn't what they have been doing....it was in some ways disappointing as the "specials" are supposed to be kinda well special....no super exotic location, with some epic road trip.

    I think that is the problem with the Grand Tour, it doesn't really know what it is. Where as Clarkson's Farm was great, because it was a very clear what sort of show it was trying to be.
    I thought the Scottish Grand Tour was rather good - funny and clever. And sometimes hilarious. It helped that they finally accepted that the whole thing is contrived, and staged, and then they just got on with the jokes and the insights. That got rid of the awkward *scripted* quality - by paradoxically admitting it is all scripted

    Shame if they have gone backwards from that
    The French one had plenty of funny lines, but doing one all about the French and not even been in France, is a bit weird....also, no "challenge". It was basically an hour of them farting around in different French cars, which was mildly amusing, but no sense of any real core idea or grand road trip / amazing scenery etc.
    I imagine they were fucked by Covid
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Is there any evidence Sunak or Truss would poll better?
    Or is it not just the PM which is the issue?
  • Alistair said:

    "John Major 2022" sounds like an idea for a sci-fi series. Like Sherlock Holmes in the 22nd Century, or whatever that cartoon was.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulysses_31
    The best cartoon of the 1980s!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diH8TXZKfuQ
  • https://twitter.com/Ian_Fraser/status/1471965501584773120

    Congratulations.

    I remember when the vaccines were going to send cases to zero

    The US figure will be higher when all its data is in, not that it makes much difference.

    The vaccines were sending the number of Alpha cases to zero, and three doses would have been enough to send the number of Delta cases to zero, but it's clear now that the evolution of the virus is too quick for a vaccine to eradicate it in this way. Maybe a nasal spray vaccine would do so, not sure. But that's not a disaster, because the vaccines still protect us from severe illness.

    It's true that some people will die of Covid, just as some people have always died from colds, or flu, or pneumonia, but the numbers will not be so high that they put society at risk.
    Thanks at least not for shouting me down, I appreciate that.

    Thank you for not implying that I was lying about cases and vaccines.

    I hope you are right in your predictions
    It's hard to trust that things will mostly be okay this time, because we've been through this cycle so many times before that we've learnt that a leads to b, leads to c, leads to d. Johnson was late to protect people in spring 2020, late again in autumn 2020, and for a third time in winter 2020/21. It really does feel like it's the same thing again.

    I completely understand that, because the subconscious part of my mind is feeling that, it's recognising the patterns that have been learnt, and it's triggering my fight or flight reactions in response to the perceived danger.

    So my logical mind is able to say that we can trust the vaccines, and intellectually I know that this is what the evidence to date shows us to be true (with also some evidence that the vaccines have nudged the virus to be intrinsically less harmful, by being more an infection of the upper respiratory tract), and yet at the same time I do not really believe this, because learning lessons really quickly from previous experience is the sort of thing that keeps us safe.
    Very logical to me - and I completely agree
  • Thanks for your references @turbotubbs, must appreciated

  • Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else
  • Interesting thought from the Sky Paper Review: Is Omicron hitting London harder because of lower vaccine rates in London?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    Leon are you going to host a pb ayahuasca party in the new year for all those apathetic at respecting a new lockdown?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    fpt for pigeon


    "Anecdote: brother-in-law works for UCLH (albeit in a non-clinical capacity.) Has described the hospital as being "overrun" with new Covid patients.

    As with many, many other examples quoted in the newspapers and elsewhere through the Autumn and into Winter, they are "mostly unvaccinated."

    Nothing will be done about this though. The general consensus from both the politicians and the medics seems to be that most refusers are not hardcore anti-vaxxer nuts but distrustful and/or scared people who need to be slowly, gently, patiently coaxed into compliance, or they'll simply dig their heels in more. The fact that we've already been trying to talk them down, unsuccessfully, for a year, and don't have another year, or two, or five, to turn the situation around is, of course, never mentioned. And there's no political will to get brutal with them. Apparently Draconian lockdowns for everyone = perfectly OK, let's have more please; universal vaccination mandates = unforgiveable violation of human rights.

    Frankly, I can understand why you want them punished. To be honest, so do I. I was driven halfway round the bend by the last lockdown; husband is clinically extremely vulnerable. We both want Covid crushed as soon as possible and, if we had the authority to do it, would have no compunctions at all about making the lives of refusers unbearable. But Parliament won't do that, so the suffering will go on."


    ++++


    Yes, I agree with all of that. I was being hyperbolic when I said "put them in camps" - but not because I object to camps (what is hard lockdown but a vast jail for all of us? A kind of camp?) more that it is simply impractical

    I agree with the PB-ers who suggest financial sanctions. Make antivaxxers pay for their hospital stays, make them pay a tax - a jizyah - for their status as unvaxxed. And if they have no money, take their possessions and sell them, slowly but surely

    Another hard long lockdown will do incalculable damage to us all. Let the miscreants squeal in pain
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,287
    Boris' Christmas party problems are going to look even worse after a bad NHS Winter.

    But wouldn't Tory MPs go for someone outside of his top team, if they want a change of course?

  • Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    rkrkrk said:

    Boris' Christmas party problems are going to look even worse after a bad NHS Winter.

    But wouldn't Tory MPs go for someone outside of his top team, if they want a change of course?

    Yes.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866

    Interesting thought from the Sky Paper Review: Is Omicron hitting London harder because of lower vaccine rates in London?

    Its because it is an international travel hub. Omninomnom got there first. The rest of the country is a few days toa week behind at most given the crazy reproduction rate.
  • Interesting thought from the Sky Paper Review: Is Omicron hitting London harder because of lower vaccine rates in London?

    London wasn't affected much by Delta so perhaps there isn't as much acquired immunity.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    Interesting thought from the Sky Paper Review: Is Omicron hitting London harder because of lower vaccine rates in London?

    London wasn't affected much by Delta so perhaps there isn't as much acquired immunity.
    Ironic if vaccine success against delta was a bad thing for omicron...
  • dixiedean said:

    Is there any evidence Sunak or Truss would poll better?
    Or is it not just the PM which is the issue?

    I'm surprised that this hasn't been polled yet.
  • It seems to me that OMICRON THE CUTE FLUFFY KITTEN might be a blessing that slaps the world out of its Covid paranoia. Its moving us on from the long-running and devastating Covid Lockdown INFINITY WAR and into the final Covid ENDGAME.

    The endgame for Covid could and should have only been that people get their vaccines and then the virus is let free to rip through everyone naturally. Any antivaxxers who refuse the vaccine would get natural Covid immunity then, if they survive. Anyone vaccinated would get natural immunity too, with a much greater chance of survival.

    The problem is that despite vaccines being rolled out, countries have been unwilling to let go of lockdown protections. A question for a long time is even after vaccinations how are nations like New Zealand, or ourselves to an extent, going to let go of restrictions.

    Omicron seems to be the answer. Lower mortality per person and so transmissive its going to rip through the population whether you wanted it to or not.

    We might lose one or two iron men who seemed invincible before now, but half the world that's been blipped away for a few years will come back to life.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    rkrkrk said:

    Boris' Christmas party problems are going to look even worse after a bad NHS Winter.

    But wouldn't Tory MPs go for someone outside of his top team, if they want a change of course?

    The only backbencher with that potential is Hunt, but there are some lesser ministers such as Mordaunt that I think are worth being green on.
  • It's obvious where the biases of some are when they're allowed to blurt out how everything is fine now and it's a fluffy kitten or some other such stuff and anyone dissenting gets a more frosty response.

    Let's hope for all our sakes the former is right, I am now going to read @turbotubbs' links and with that I wish you a good night
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    edited December 2021
    Alistair said:

    Interesting thought from the Sky Paper Review: Is Omicron hitting London harder because of lower vaccine rates in London?

    Its because it is an international travel hub. Omninomnom got there first. The rest of the country is a few days toa week behind at most given the crazy reproduction rate.
    I do wonder if the Scottish outbreak is from COP 26. People came from all over the world...
  • It seems to me that OMICRON THE CUTE FLUFFY KITTEN might be a blessing that slaps the world out of its Covid paranoia. Its moving us on from the long-running and devastating Covid Lockdown INFINITY WAR and into the final Covid ENDGAME.

    The endgame for Covid could and should have only been that people get their vaccines and then the virus is let free to rip through everyone naturally. Any antivaxxers who refuse the vaccine would get natural Covid immunity then, if they survive. Anyone vaccinated would get natural immunity too, with a much greater chance of survival.

    The problem is that despite vaccines being rolled out, countries have been unwilling to let go of lockdown protections. A question for a long time is even after vaccinations how are nations like New Zealand, or ourselves to an extent, going to let go of restrictions.

    Omicron seems to be the answer. Lower mortality per person and so transmissive its going to rip through the population whether you wanted it to or not.

    We might lose one or two iron men who seemed invincible before now, but half the world that's been blipped away for a few years will come back to life.

    I did wonder early in the summer whether it would be a necessary step for us to exceed last winter's peak in case numbers, and see that this did not lead to the same level of death, to prove that the vaccines really did work. Seeing is believing.

    I hope this is what is about to happen. absurdly stupendous numbers of infections, the ONS survey picking up double digit rates of infection, and a relatively modest impact on the NHS.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Boris' Christmas party problems are going to look even worse after a bad NHS Winter.

    But wouldn't Tory MPs go for someone outside of his top team, if they want a change of course?

    The only backbencher with that potential is Hunt, but there are some lesser ministers such as Mordaunt that I think are worth being green on.
    Mordaunt?! Good God I hope not...

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1471596508491526144?s=20
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    edited December 2021
    🐴 a horse asks, why the long face?

    image
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    I think we are being manipulated into getting our boosters like good little citizens. Probably with the best intentions and no doubt will help, but the evidence from SA is so starkly different from previous waves that it makes one suspect it really isn’t going to be a big issue.
    I’d venture to suggest that if we stopped routine testing we’d barely notice it’s passing through the population. Some more sick people in hospital and some more deaths, but the vast, vast majority going about their business.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Interesting thought from the Sky Paper Review: Is Omicron hitting London harder because of lower vaccine rates in London?

    Its because it is an international travel hub. Omninomnom got there first. The rest of the country is a few days toa week behind at most given the crazy reproduction rate.
    I do wonder if the Scottish outbreak is from COP 26. People came from all over the world...
    Apparently not according to researchers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Boris' Christmas party problems are going to look even worse after a bad NHS Winter.

    But wouldn't Tory MPs go for someone outside of his top team, if they want a change of course?

    The only backbencher with that potential is Hunt, but there are some lesser ministers such as Mordaunt that I think are worth being green on.
    Mordaunt?! Good God I hope not...

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1471596508491526144?s=20
    I am betting on her, not supporting her!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    What's weird is that the actual data from the UK is broadly positive, 93-95% vaccine efficacy against severe symptoms is beyond what everyone had hoped when we were worried about immunity escape.

    The all of the terrifying stuff seems to be the stupid models which are not real data, it's all made up and the idiot politicians fall for it every time.
  • Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    Its easy to reconcile.

    The initial data showed that it has high exponential growth, which it does, initially. HMG/SAGE/[email protected] then plugged exponential growth into their Buzz Lightyear models that go TO INFINITY AND BEYOND! and said "OMG exponential growth is bad, this is pretty terrifying".

    The latter data shows that oh yes, exponential growth doesn't actually go to infinity, so it stops just as suddenly as it starts. But this isn't in their models, so that doesn't ease the terror. And the idiots using broken Buzz Lightyear models keep saying "Danger! Danger!" because they're petrified of the inevitable inquiry and can't wrap their heads around the fact that exponential growth doesn't go on to infinity.

    Accept that the people involved are being stupid, and you can reconcile it all.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Boris' Christmas party problems are going to look even worse after a bad NHS Winter.

    But wouldn't Tory MPs go for someone outside of his top team, if they want a change of course?

    The only backbencher with that potential is Hunt, but there are some lesser ministers such as Mordaunt that I think are worth being green on.
    Mordaunt?! Good God I hope not...

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1471596508491526144?s=20
    I am betting on her, not supporting her!
    Yes I guessed that.

    It's why I don't bet on politics - I wouldn't sufficiently separate personal wishes from betting judgement.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    edited December 2021

    It seems to me that OMICRON THE CUTE FLUFFY KITTEN might be a blessing that slaps the world out of its Covid paranoia. Its moving us on from the long-running and devastating Covid Lockdown INFINITY WAR and into the final Covid ENDGAME.

    The endgame for Covid could and should have only been that people get their vaccines and then the virus is let free to rip through everyone naturally. Any antivaxxers who refuse the vaccine would get natural Covid immunity then, if they survive. Anyone vaccinated would get natural immunity too, with a much greater chance of survival.

    The problem is that despite vaccines being rolled out, countries have been unwilling to let go of lockdown protections. A question for a long time is even after vaccinations how are nations like New Zealand, or ourselves to an extent, going to let go of restrictions.

    Omicron seems to be the answer. Lower mortality per person and so transmissive its going to rip through the population whether you wanted it to or not.

    We might lose one or two iron men who seemed invincible before now, but half the world that's been blipped away for a few years will come back to life.

    I did wonder early in the summer whether it would be a necessary step for us to exceed last winter's peak in case numbers, and see that this did not lead to the same level of death, to prove that the vaccines really did work. Seeing is believing.

    I hope this is what is about to happen. absurdly stupendous numbers of infections, the ONS survey picking up double digit rates of infection, and a relatively modest impact on the NHS.
    Lots of places did go over their winter peaks this summer. Remember for large swathes of the country their winter peaks were lower than the proceeding autumn peak.

    It was London/the south east's pants wettingly gigantic winter spike that skews the UK numbers.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Boris' Christmas party problems are going to look even worse after a bad NHS Winter.

    But wouldn't Tory MPs go for someone outside of his top team, if they want a change of course?

    The only backbencher with that potential is Hunt, but there are some lesser ministers such as Mordaunt that I think are worth being green on.
    Hunt's previous failed tilt versus Johnson came before Covid and, therefore, before everyone became very interested in the state of pandemic preparedness arising from his tenure as Health Secretary. If a vacancy arises then going for him now would be brave, in the Sir Humphrey sense.

    I see no particular reason to suppose that a successor wouldn't emerge from the cabinet. After all, none of them are particularly associated with Johnsonism as a political project or philosophy, because no such thing exists.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Boris' Christmas party problems are going to look even worse after a bad NHS Winter.

    But wouldn't Tory MPs go for someone outside of his top team, if they want a change of course?

    The only backbencher with that potential is Hunt, but there are some lesser ministers such as Mordaunt that I think are worth being green on.
    Mordaunt?! Good God I hope not...

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1471596508491526144?s=20
    I am betting on her, not supporting her!
    Good call. She could make a splash.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Boris' Christmas party problems are going to look even worse after a bad NHS Winter.

    But wouldn't Tory MPs go for someone outside of his top team, if they want a change of course?

    The only backbencher with that potential is Hunt, but there are some lesser ministers such as Mordaunt that I think are worth being green on.
    Mordaunt?! Good God I hope not...

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1471596508491526144?s=20
    I am betting on her, not supporting her!
    Yes I guessed that.

    It's why I don't bet on politics - I wouldn't sufficiently separate personal wishes from betting judgement.
    Mordaunt is like Priti Patel, but smarter and a much better speaker.
  • Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Boris' Christmas party problems are going to look even worse after a bad NHS Winter.

    But wouldn't Tory MPs go for someone outside of his top team, if they want a change of course?

    The only backbencher with that potential is Hunt, but there are some lesser ministers such as Mordaunt that I think are worth being green on.
    Mordaunt?! Good God I hope not...

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1471596508491526144?s=20
    Comedy Dave Klaxon!

    Been a while since we've had one of those.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    I rarely agree with you Leon about frankly very much.
    But you have been spot on correct about this. The simple answer is it is still too early to tell. There is too much conflicting data. So much so that each poster is able to cherry pick it to fit their own pre-conceived ideas.
    One thing is for sure. It could turn out to be anything. But it ain't a fluffy kitten. It is an unpleasant, debilitating, draining illness for me.
    Not anywhere near hospital. But not anything at all pleasant in the slightest. It's 10 days now. I doubt I'll be fit for Monday.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Boris' Christmas party problems are going to look even worse after a bad NHS Winter.

    But wouldn't Tory MPs go for someone outside of his top team, if they want a change of course?

    The only backbencher with that potential is Hunt, but there are some lesser ministers such as Mordaunt that I think are worth being green on.
    Mordaunt?! Good God I hope not...

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1471596508491526144?s=20
    I am betting on her, not supporting her!
    Good call. She could make a splash.
    Yes, or she could do a belly flop.
  • Anybody linking to Comedy Dave without pointing out they are taking the piss out of him should be sent to watch GB News for a week....
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    Makes perfect sense when you realise that the data that has terrified the government is the latest Baxter estimate
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    I rarely agree with you Leon about frankly very much.
    But you have been spot on correct about this. The simple answer is it is still too early to tell. There is too much conflicting data. So much so that each poster is able to cherry pick it to fit their own pre-conceived ideas.
    One thing is for sure. It could turn out to be anything. But it ain't a fluffy kitten. It is an unpleasant, debilitating, draining illness for me.
    Not anywhere near hospital. But not anything at all pleasant in the slightest. It's 10 days now. I doubt I'll be fit for Monday.
    Omicron or Delta though?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    I rarely agree with you Leon about frankly very much.
    But you have been spot on correct about this. The simple answer is it is still too early to tell. There is too much conflicting data. So much so that each poster is able to cherry pick it to fit their own pre-conceived ideas.
    One thing is for sure. It could turn out to be anything. But it ain't a fluffy kitten. It is an unpleasant, debilitating, draining illness for me.
    Not anywhere near hospital. But not anything at all pleasant in the slightest. It's 10 days now. I doubt I'll be fit for Monday.
    Sorry to hear that

    And yes it is a scary illness for millions of people. If I had a dose two weeks back I am still coughing now and still a tiny bit wobbly and at the time it floored me entirely. Who knows

    I have friends with Long Covid which is a genuine thing and can be quite hideous.

    Get better!
  • That little out of context clip by Mordaunt is entirely polite and reasonable.

    No wonder Comedy Dave is so upset.
  • dixiedean said:

    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    I rarely agree with you Leon about frankly very much.
    But you have been spot on correct about this. The simple answer is it is still too early to tell. There is too much conflicting data. So much so that each poster is able to cherry pick it to fit their own pre-conceived ideas.
    One thing is for sure. It could turn out to be anything. But it ain't a fluffy kitten. It is an unpleasant, debilitating, draining illness for me.
    Not anywhere near hospital. But not anything at all pleasant in the slightest. It's 10 days now. I doubt I'll be fit for Monday.
    This has been my concern over the "its mild" narrative.

    I am fairly relaxed personally, triple jabbed, young, healthy etc. But i don't think people quite understand what 29% milder means....it doesn't mean its now all sweetness and light.
  • dixiedean said:

    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    I rarely agree with you Leon about frankly very much.
    But you have been spot on correct about this. The simple answer is it is still too early to tell. There is too much conflicting data. So much so that each poster is able to cherry pick it to fit their own pre-conceived ideas.
    One thing is for sure. It could turn out to be anything. But it ain't a fluffy kitten. It is an unpleasant, debilitating, draining illness for me.
    Not anywhere near hospital. But not anything at all pleasant in the slightest. It's 10 days now. I doubt I'll be fit for Monday.
    I'm not trying to make light of your illness Dixie, so please don't take it that way, I thought I was clearly mocking Leon's OMICRON DEVOURER OF WORLDS hysteria with that.

    But if the Omicron is milder and more transmissible than Delta then it is a 'blessing', even if it feels bad, its replacing something worse. So potentially closer to the fluffy kitten than the devourer of worlds.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,380
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    I rarely agree with you Leon about frankly very much.
    But you have been spot on correct about this. The simple answer is it is still too early to tell. There is too much conflicting data. So much so that each poster is able to cherry pick it to fit their own pre-conceived ideas.
    One thing is for sure. It could turn out to be anything. But it ain't a fluffy kitten. It is an unpleasant, debilitating, draining illness for me.
    Not anywhere near hospital. But not anything at all pleasant in the slightest. It's 10 days now. I doubt I'll be fit for Monday.
    Omicron or Delta though?
    I met a friend five days ago who I've just been informed has Omicron. Awkward because I came to France the next day. How would he know which variant he's got? Surely it would only be known if you're hospitalised
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    There was a post on my Facebook of someone (67yrs old) saying that they were triple jabbed but had Covid likely Omicron, had no symptoms, felt fine, and was begging everyone to take a lateral flow test before they went out.

    The irony of them saying how fine they felt but everyone needs to take an LFT was exquisite.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    I rarely agree with you Leon about frankly very much.
    But you have been spot on correct about this. The simple answer is it is still too early to tell. There is too much conflicting data. So much so that each poster is able to cherry pick it to fit their own pre-conceived ideas.
    One thing is for sure. It could turn out to be anything. But it ain't a fluffy kitten. It is an unpleasant, debilitating, draining illness for me.
    Not anywhere near hospital. But not anything at all pleasant in the slightest. It's 10 days now. I doubt I'll be fit for Monday.
    Omicron or Delta though?
    I dunno cos I haven't been told. My symptoms and how I caught it lead me to believe it must be Omicron. You'd know better. But sore throat and a headache impervious to pain relief.
    And a total absence of shortness of breath or a cough. Been able to exercise not quite as normal, but it has been muscle soreness and a need to fall asleep rather than panting that has been the issue.
    Still asleep more than I am awake. Even though no symptoms for five days.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,153


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    If the former, it would be incredibly useful to know exactly what that subset is.
    My guess is that Omicron is already massively rife and in most cases somehow gives neither symptoms nor positive test results. But I don't know if that stands up to the evidence we have; it's only a guess.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    I rarely agree with you Leon about frankly very much.
    But you have been spot on correct about this. The simple answer is it is still too early to tell. There is too much conflicting data. So much so that each poster is able to cherry pick it to fit their own pre-conceived ideas.
    One thing is for sure. It could turn out to be anything. But it ain't a fluffy kitten. It is an unpleasant, debilitating, draining illness for me.
    Not anywhere near hospital. But not anything at all pleasant in the slightest. It's 10 days now. I doubt I'll be fit for Monday.
    Omicron or Delta though?
    I met a friend five days ago who I've just been informed has Omicron. Awkward because I came to France the next day. How would he know which variant he's got? Surely it would only be known if you're hospitalised
    Not at all......have you not wondered why ~18 confirmed hospitalisations with Omicron, where as 1000s of confirmed omicron cases...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    I rarely agree with you Leon about frankly very much.
    But you have been spot on correct about this. The simple answer is it is still too early to tell. There is too much conflicting data. So much so that each poster is able to cherry pick it to fit their own pre-conceived ideas.
    One thing is for sure. It could turn out to be anything. But it ain't a fluffy kitten. It is an unpleasant, debilitating, draining illness for me.
    Not anywhere near hospital. But not anything at all pleasant in the slightest. It's 10 days now. I doubt I'll be fit for Monday.
    Omicron or Delta though?
    I dunno cos I haven't been told. My symptoms and how I caught it lead me to believe it must be Omicron. You'd know better. But sore throat and a headache impervious to pain relief.
    And a total absence of shortness of breath or a cough. Been able to exercise not quite as normal, but it has been muscle soreness and a need to fall asleep rather than panting that has been the issue.
    Still asleep more than I am awake. Even though no symptoms for five days.
    It's dreadful and I wish you a speedy and full recovery. But it's not lock down the nation dreadful.

  • Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    1h
    Denmark today: 11,194 cases (yesterday 10,000), likely now Omicron dominant, highest per capita case load in world, over 1,400/million (very high % testing country). 2nd now is Switzerland 1054/M.
    Good news to date: Very low fatalities

  • Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    1h
    Denmark today: 11,194 cases (yesterday 10,000), likely now Omicron dominant, highest per capita case load in world, over 1,400/million (very high % testing country). 2nd now is Switzerland 1054/M.
    Good news to date: Very low fatalities

    Can't be long until Swedish cases go through the roof.
  • UK researchers have analysed the likely impact that a Covid booster shot will have on Omicron and say it could provide around 85% protection against severe illness.

    BBC news website
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756

    It seems to me that OMICRON THE CUTE FLUFFY KITTEN might be a blessing that slaps the world out of its Covid paranoia. Its moving us on from the long-running and devastating Covid Lockdown INFINITY WAR and into the final Covid ENDGAME.

    The endgame for Covid could and should have only been that people get their vaccines and then the virus is let free to rip through everyone naturally. Any antivaxxers who refuse the vaccine would get natural Covid immunity then, if they survive. Anyone vaccinated would get natural immunity too, with a much greater chance of survival.

    The problem is that despite vaccines being rolled out, countries have been unwilling to let go of lockdown protections. A question for a long time is even after vaccinations how are nations like New Zealand, or ourselves to an extent, going to let go of restrictions.

    Omicron seems to be the answer. Lower mortality per person and so transmissive its going to rip through the population whether you wanted it to or not.

    We might lose one or two iron men who seemed invincible before now, but half the world that's been blipped away for a few years will come back to life.

    +1
  • UK researchers have analysed the likely impact that a Covid booster shot will have on Omicron and say it could provide around 85% protection against severe illness.

    BBC news website

    Number of research out today, general take away is 2 doses aint great, 3 doses looks good at least in preventing severe disease.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756

    Interesting thought from the Sky Paper Review: Is Omicron hitting London harder because of lower vaccine rates in London?

    The answer must be yes if a third of Londoners haven't even had one jab.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 5,188
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    I rarely agree with you Leon about frankly very much.
    But you have been spot on correct about this. The simple answer is it is still too early to tell. There is too much conflicting data. So much so that each poster is able to cherry pick it to fit their own pre-conceived ideas.
    One thing is for sure. It could turn out to be anything. But it ain't a fluffy kitten. It is an unpleasant, debilitating, draining illness for me.
    Not anywhere near hospital. But not anything at all pleasant in the slightest. It's 10 days now. I doubt I'll be fit for Monday.
    DD, what were your symptoms?

    I wonder if I had it, despite a total of 5 negative tests with no positive ones. I have had a 'head cold' for 2 weeks now and it refuses to go away. Seriously bunged up nose, mild headache, and a scratchy throat at the start that migrated down to the throat and an occasional cough (not dry). I am tired now, not so much as a flu-type fatigue but rather from shortage of sleep as I keep on waking up unable to breath through my bunged up nose.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,153
    On thread: I'd agree that Rishi and Liz Truss would be the favourites. I think Saj is probably next in the queue - he has some credit with Tories for not being Matt Hancock. Conceivable he could muscle himself into the last two.
    Drawbacks of Saj: 1) he is completely bald, and 2) his name isn't much fun to say. Which syllable do you stress? I generally favour equal stress on all four syllables:SADGE-IDD-JAV-IDD. Not as much fun as saying Rishi Sunak with the pleasantly drawn out 'ooo'; or the pleasingly short, choppy Liz-Truss.
  • Surely Matt Hancock is nailed on next leader...at least that's what he thinks.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993


    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    1h
    Denmark today: 11,194 cases (yesterday 10,000), likely now Omicron dominant, highest per capita case load in world, over 1,400/million (very high % testing country). 2nd now is Switzerland 1054/M.
    Good news to date: Very low fatalities

    It’s going to be okay, I think.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 5,188
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting thought from the Sky Paper Review: Is Omicron hitting London harder because of lower vaccine rates in London?

    The answer must be yes if a third of Londoners haven't even had one jab.
    Or that it is just a timing issue - London is more connected than any other location in the UK, so it will spread there first. It may just be that London is a few days ahead of the rest of the UK ...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,380
    edited December 2021
    Two no-hopers and that's just from their photos.

    Liz Truss is rapidly becoming a figure of fun having montrously oversold her achievements. The Donald Trump of the Tory Party

    Richi's 'Eat out to help out' is thought to be the only slogan more lethal than Gerald Ratner's 'II's total crap"
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    I rarely agree with you Leon about frankly very much.
    But you have been spot on correct about this. The simple answer is it is still too early to tell. There is too much conflicting data. So much so that each poster is able to cherry pick it to fit their own pre-conceived ideas.
    One thing is for sure. It could turn out to be anything. But it ain't a fluffy kitten. It is an unpleasant, debilitating, draining illness for me.
    Not anywhere near hospital. But not anything at all pleasant in the slightest. It's 10 days now. I doubt I'll be fit for Monday.
    This has been my concern over the "its mild" narrative.

    I am fairly relaxed personally, triple jabbed, young, healthy etc. But i don't think people quite understand what 29% milder means....it doesn't mean its now all sweetness and light.
    No. I really suffered from the waning vaccine.
    I tested positive on the day of my booster. 6 months to the day from second jab.
    Which, remarkably, was barely known about only middle of last week.
    I'm 55 and smoke and drink too much. But I am fit for my age and a BMI below 20.
    Not a patch on pneumonia or pleurisy. But some people are going to be sick for weeks, "mild" or not.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    *On Topic.

    I have unbeaten 100% record in my politics betting (what they call one match winning streak) my second political bet is/was as a few weeks back, Saj for Boris replacement £50 14-1.

    Big G is right, clear front runner is Rishi Sunak. He is okay on TV and excellent at dispatch box.

    Problem. He does carry quite a handicap into this race.

    It’s the Job of himself and his department to carry out due diligence on spending on behalf of the taxpayer. And after the last two years there are some good questions needing good answers about his performance.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9738735/Fraud-blunders-Covid-support-schemes-cost-taxpayers-30bn-MPs-warn.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/22/fifth-of-uk-covid-contracts-raised-red-flags-for-possible-corruption

    I’m not a expert, just a failed artist whose fallen off many horses, but the first question I understand is he gave awful lot of money to banks for quick distribution, now complains the banks didn’t do enough due diligence in handing out this taxpayer money. This obstacle can either bring him down in leadership race, or he gets the job and this dogs him and tarnishes his credibility.

    The second question is any iffy covid contracts can lead back to asking his department what was the part you played in them? Again, can either bring him down in leadership race, or he gets the job and this dogs him and tarnishes his credibility.

    These are clear differentials between him and other candidates.

    Currently, Rishi is under attack from his own side, the Conservatives, the Party of Business demanding action on lockdown by stealth killing businesses. In his car crash interview today, Boris could not explain the difference between his line, and the C-MO line. Can Rishi?

    And those are just the known knowns as they say.

    Saj seems able. Likeable. Resigned on principle and proved right to (see the second link) and good natured to joke about it in his resignation speech. More recently the Tory benches masked up virtually overnight when he told them to. His backstory is growing up in flat above shop in rundown high street. He is archetypal Tory Leader candidate. At 14-1 could go deep into this race.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    TOPPING said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    I rarely agree with you Leon about frankly very much.
    But you have been spot on correct about this. The simple answer is it is still too early to tell. There is too much conflicting data. So much so that each poster is able to cherry pick it to fit their own pre-conceived ideas.
    One thing is for sure. It could turn out to be anything. But it ain't a fluffy kitten. It is an unpleasant, debilitating, draining illness for me.
    Not anywhere near hospital. But not anything at all pleasant in the slightest. It's 10 days now. I doubt I'll be fit for Monday.
    Omicron or Delta though?
    I dunno cos I haven't been told. My symptoms and how I caught it lead me to believe it must be Omicron. You'd know better. But sore throat and a headache impervious to pain relief.
    And a total absence of shortness of breath or a cough. Been able to exercise not quite as normal, but it has been muscle soreness and a need to fall asleep rather than panting that has been the issue.
    Still asleep more than I am awake. Even though no symptoms for five days.
    It's dreadful and I wish you a speedy and full recovery. But it's not lock down the nation dreadful.
    Agreed.
    But it isn't "will not have any noticeable effect on the economy" mild either.
  • Anyone think Nadhim Zahawi could be in with a shout? Very safe pair of hands on the vaccines
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,385
    I'm still not over the Governnment's fightback 'crime week'. If you'd pitched this to the Thick of It you'd have been fired on the spot over how implausible it was. Especially the whole party investigation being led by someone who hosted a party two days before.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    TimT said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    I rarely agree with you Leon about frankly very much.
    But you have been spot on correct about this. The simple answer is it is still too early to tell. There is too much conflicting data. So much so that each poster is able to cherry pick it to fit their own pre-conceived ideas.
    One thing is for sure. It could turn out to be anything. But it ain't a fluffy kitten. It is an unpleasant, debilitating, draining illness for me.
    Not anywhere near hospital. But not anything at all pleasant in the slightest. It's 10 days now. I doubt I'll be fit for Monday.
    DD, what were your symptoms?

    I wonder if I had it, despite a total of 5 negative tests with no positive ones. I have had a 'head cold' for 2 weeks now and it refuses to go away. Seriously bunged up nose, mild headache, and a scratchy throat at the start that migrated down to the throat and an occasional cough (not dry). I am tired now, not so much as a flu-type fatigue but rather from shortage of sleep as I keep on waking up unable to breath through my bunged up nose.
    Have put my symptoms in another reply. Sounds similar. Brain fog has been an issue. As has being unable to tell if I have been asleep or awake.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,385

    Anyone think Nadhim Zahawi could be in with a shout? Very safe pair of hands on the vaccines

    Definitely, doesn't seem to have much of a personality though, but at 80/1 is a value bet given that he's the facew of the one good thing over the past 20 months. Mark Harper is also a good value bet (66/1). Completely inoffensive and centre-right. Hunt, Javid, and Gove are all obvious lays - the only question is whether the 12.5%ish return will outpace the stockmarket.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    In 1990 Major was still chancellor like Sunak is now. Hard, like Truss the Foreign Secretary at that time, was third.

    Major was able to beat Heseltine after Thatcher resigned as polls showed him beating Kinnock too
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993
    Chameleon said:

    Anyone think Nadhim Zahawi could be in with a shout? Very safe pair of hands on the vaccines

    Definitely, doesn't seem to have much of a personality though, but at 80/1 is a value bet given that he's the facew of the one good thing over the past 20 months. Mark Harper is also a good value bet (66/1). Completely inoffensive and centre-right. Hunt, Javid, and Gove are all obvious lays - the only question is whether the 12.5%ish return will outpace the stockmarket.
    Mark Harper has solid mid-right wing credentials, is fashionably anti-lockdown which seems to appeal to a large number of Tory MPs though not the general public, is fairly fiscally dry and probably at the Thatcherite tax cutting end of the spectrum, he has reasonable xenophobe creds that should appeal to the base having been involved in those delightful go-home vans while minister for immigration while not being as toxic to foreign leaders as someone like Patel or Frost, and critically has kept his powder dry and himself out of trouble. I don’t think he has any enemies. He would be my top tip to sneak through the middle.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    Epidemic curve in Johannesburg/Pretoria that was straight up and continues straight down suggests we’re missing something fundamental about variant. Either attack rate is narrowed to sub segment of population, we’re undercounting mild or asymptomatic infections, or something else

    OMICRON THE GREAT FLUFFY KITTEN.
    It is so hard to reconcile the two strands of evidence. On the one hand some of the data out of SA - like this - is seriously encouraging. A collapse in infections. On the other hand you have news that the data seen by HMG is "frankly pretty terrifying"

    It's not that both cannot be true, it's more like they come from parallel universes

    WTF?
    I rarely agree with you Leon about frankly very much.
    But you have been spot on correct about this. The simple answer is it is still too early to tell. There is too much conflicting data. So much so that each poster is able to cherry pick it to fit their own pre-conceived ideas.
    One thing is for sure. It could turn out to be anything. But it ain't a fluffy kitten. It is an unpleasant, debilitating, draining illness for me.
    Not anywhere near hospital. But not anything at all pleasant in the slightest. It's 10 days now. I doubt I'll be fit for Monday.
    I'm not trying to make light of your illness Dixie, so please don't take it that way, I thought I was clearly mocking Leon's OMICRON DEVOURER OF WORLDS hysteria with that.

    But if the Omicron is milder and more transmissible than Delta then it is a 'blessing', even if it feels bad, its replacing something worse. So potentially closer to the fluffy kitten than the devourer of worlds.
    No. I get that you aren't PT, of course. I have some sympathy with your view too.
    It has been a lot less bad than I feared. Particularly the no gasping for breath, which sounds horrible.
    If everyone is like me, then folk will have a couple of weeks off work then be fine. I have some advantages, and some disadvantages in terms of being vulnerable. And everyone reacts differently anyways.
    One thing you are spot on right about is this. If the way I reckon I caught it is true, and if it isn't, then I'm at a total loss, everyone is going to get it very quickly. There isn't anything, short of not leaving the house going to stop it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    HYUFD said:

    In 1990 Major was still chancellor like Sunak is now. Hard, like Truss the Foreign Secretary at that time, was third.

    Major was able to beat Heseltine after Thatcher resigned as polls showed him beating Kinnock too

    Sorry, Hurd not Hard
  • Chameleon said:

    Anyone think Nadhim Zahawi could be in with a shout? Very safe pair of hands on the vaccines

    Definitely, doesn't seem to have much of a personality though, but at 80/1 is a value bet given that he's the facew of the one good thing over the past 20 months. Mark Harper is also a good value bet (66/1). Completely inoffensive and centre-right. Hunt, Javid, and Gove are all obvious lays - the only question is whether the 12.5%ish return will outpace the stockmarket.
    In recent times there has been a pattern to alternate between charismatic and dull leaders

    Thatcher- charismatic
    Major - dull
    Blair - charismatic
    Brown - dull
    Cameron - charismatic
    May - dull
    Johnson - charismatic

    I think if Johnson goes the Tories will be looking for dull and competent
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited December 2021
    Labour have posted 14 opinion leads in a row. I wonder how far back you would have to go to find a longer run of Labour leads?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited December 2021

    Chameleon said:

    Anyone think Nadhim Zahawi could be in with a shout? Very safe pair of hands on the vaccines

    Definitely, doesn't seem to have much of a personality though, but at 80/1 is a value bet given that he's the facew of the one good thing over the past 20 months. Mark Harper is also a good value bet (66/1). Completely inoffensive and centre-right. Hunt, Javid, and Gove are all obvious lays - the only question is whether the 12.5%ish return will outpace the stockmarket.
    In recent times there has been a pattern to alternate between charismatic and dull leaders

    Thatcher- charismatic
    Major - dull
    Blair - charismatic
    Brown - dull
    Cameron - charismatic
    May - dull
    Johnson - charismatic

    I think if Johnson goes the Tories will be looking for dull and competent
    You can take that back. Callaghan dull, Wilson charismatic.
    Of course there is one political figure about who does dull extraordinarily well.
    The Tories better get in there first.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756

    Chameleon said:

    Anyone think Nadhim Zahawi could be in with a shout? Very safe pair of hands on the vaccines

    Definitely, doesn't seem to have much of a personality though, but at 80/1 is a value bet given that he's the facew of the one good thing over the past 20 months. Mark Harper is also a good value bet (66/1). Completely inoffensive and centre-right. Hunt, Javid, and Gove are all obvious lays - the only question is whether the 12.5%ish return will outpace the stockmarket.
    In recent times there has been a pattern to alternate between charismatic and dull leaders

    Thatcher- charismatic
    Major - dull
    Blair - charismatic
    Brown - dull
    Cameron - charismatic
    May - dull
    Johnson - charismatic

    I think if Johnson goes the Tories will be looking for dull and competent
    Very interesting observation. If the Tories don't go for a charismatic leader next time, who would that rule out?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,124

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Boris' Christmas party problems are going to look even worse after a bad NHS Winter.

    But wouldn't Tory MPs go for someone outside of his top team, if they want a change of course?

    The only backbencher with that potential is Hunt, but there are some lesser ministers such as Mordaunt that I think are worth being green on.
    Mordaunt?! Good God I hope not...

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1471596508491526144?s=20
    It is a very odd speech. Morduant claims the UK did Brexit to get close to America and it is about time America repaid the favour.

    The plus point for her probably was no-one was likely paying attention.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Lockdown

    🚨 | BREAKING: Plans are being drawn up for a two week circuit breaker after Christmas, which would ban indoor mixing and have the rule of six outdoors. Pubs and restaurants outdoors only

    Via @thetimes
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Outdoors only. In the Uk. In January. Then two weeks becomes four becomes ten. The whole winter
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    Lockdown

    🚨 | BREAKING: Plans are being drawn up for a two week circuit breaker after Christmas, which would ban indoor mixing and have the rule of six outdoors. Pubs and restaurants outdoors only

    Via @thetimes

    Oh goodie we are going for the half lockdown, which is neither here nor there.

    "Weddings would be limited to 15 people and funerals 30 during the potential circuit breaker"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    Leon said:

    Lockdown

    🚨 | BREAKING: Plans are being drawn up for a two week circuit breaker after Christmas, which would ban indoor mixing and have the rule of six outdoors. Pubs and restaurants outdoors only

    Via @thetimes

    They're still listening to Imperial College I assume.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Recall my prediction from ten days ago



    “Lockdown: YES

    Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1

    Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks

    UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000

    UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    Outdoors only. In the Uk. In January. Then two weeks becomes four becomes ten. The whole winter

    Two weeks won't do jack shit against the mighty big O, especially given how transmissible it is within homes.

    Even with lesser variants, the first week it just applying the wheel to the oil tanker, in which you have now just asked everybody to spend more time with each other.

    The 2 weeks will just see skyrocketing transmission.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Leon said:

    Recall my prediction from ten days ago



    “Lockdown: YES

    Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1

    Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks

    UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000

    UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”

    Any lockdown would see Boris face a no confidence vote the day after no question which he may well lose.

    Boosters not lockdown
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,847
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    Lockdown

    🚨 | BREAKING: Plans are being drawn up for a two week circuit breaker after Christmas, which would ban indoor mixing and have the rule of six outdoors. Pubs and restaurants outdoors only

    Via @thetimes

    Oh goodie we are going for the half lockdown, which is neither here nor there.
    Surely by then there will be no point? Of course, the risk is that the circuit breaker comes in just at or beyond the peak.

    Just 'plans' though. There's plans for lots of things.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    Outdoors only. In the Uk. In January. Then two weeks becomes four becomes ten. The whole winter

    Two weeks won't do jack shit against the might big O, especially given how transmissible it is within homes. Even with lesser variants, the first week it just applying the wheel to the oil tanker, in which you have now just asked everybody to spend more time with each other.
    Yes, recall the Dutch said ‘just 2 weeks’ for their curfew

    It will of course be extended. All of January at least. Possibly all of feb. We are right back in the nightmare
  • Leon said:

    Lockdown

    🚨 | BREAKING: Plans are being drawn up for a two week circuit breaker after Christmas, which would ban indoor mixing and have the rule of six outdoors. Pubs and restaurants outdoors only

    Via @thetimes

    And everyone will ignore it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    Lockdown

    🚨 | BREAKING: Plans are being drawn up for a two week circuit breaker after Christmas, which would ban indoor mixing and have the rule of six outdoors. Pubs and restaurants outdoors only

    Via @thetimes

    Oh goodie we are going for the half lockdown, which is neither here nor there.
    Surely by then there will be no point? Of course, the risk is that the circuit breaker comes in just at or beyond the peak.

    Just 'plans' though. There's plans for lots of things.
    It will be "do something, do anything" hospitalisations are too high.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    Leon said:

    Lockdown

    🚨 | BREAKING: Plans are being drawn up for a two week circuit breaker after Christmas, which would ban indoor mixing and have the rule of six outdoors. Pubs and restaurants outdoors only

    Via @thetimes

    Oh goodie we are going for the half lockdown, which is neither here nor there.

    "Weddings would be limited to 15 people and funerals 30 during the potential circuit breaker"
    Unacceptable, a VONC inevitable if Boris agreed that
This discussion has been closed.