politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM has it as a decisive win for Salmond – but will his per
The debate ends with the Betfair betting market unmoved. YES 13.5% chance. Now we wait for the ICM debate poll
pic.twitter.com/xJiVsE52Cs
Comments
-
First0
-
Wont change the votes0
-
Second - running out of malt...0
-
It wasn't malt anyway...0
-
We won't know until a new indyref poll is out.
I will be suprised if there is no change.0 -
Won't make a jot of difference except to the Tories who I believe will have benefitted from Darlings support for their spending on the NHS and a reminder to all how much of a shower the last Labour admin were...
Good strategy from Cameron....0 -
I suspected all along that the press were getting carried away with all their talk about how the "Yes" campaign had been killed after the first debate, but hoped I was wrong. Darling picking holes in the SNP's currency plans might embarrass Alex Salmond personally, but it does absolutely NOTHING to address the substance of the issue.
Why exactly would someone who was tempted by independence change their mind just because they might not be able to keep the pound? When you're doing something as drastic as wanting to break away and become a new country, why on earth would you be stopped by something as (relatively) trivial as that? Like some Scottish author said on that Newsnight special last week, it's the equivalent of a couple who hate eachother staying together just because they can't decide what to do with their joint CD collection.0 -
Don't think much will change. IMO What this referendum comes down to now is whether the pollsters have got their methodology right. If they have then the vote was decided in favour of No a long time ago. If they haven't...
It's not about movement or woo-ing of the claimed undecided, just about whether the polls are right.0 -
@Danny565
Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.0 -
Missed the debate and might watch it if its on catchup tomorrow, would it be worth watching? Was it a good debate? The clash of Man City v LFC at the same time as the debate made it tough to choose but went for watching the match. Should have watched the debate with that scoreline.
Hope Salmond did well, still want a Yes vote but can't see it happening still.0 -
I suppose James Kelly will say we can't take any notice of this poll showing victory for Salmond because it's just one poll, and it shouldn't influence the mood of the campaign?0
-
How much would it harm the Scottish whisky industry if on day 1 of independence the UK Govt doubled the tax for "health reasons"?0
-
That debate will change very little. Too much shouting. But Salmond won it.0
-
Complete drivel. Which market out there is unfettered? We have huge amounts of regulation on products, on labour, on companies. Some of that regulation is good and some of that regulation is bad - we'd have to talk about each one on a case by case basis - but to pretend it isn't there is just ignorance.Smarmeron said:@Socrates
And there is the rub, at one time the "market" had a responsibility to one country. Now they have no such restrictions and to a large extent are "unfettered".
Is this a good thing?0 -
All blazered up on SBBC2!!
Douple Dip Peak Blazer!!!0 -
I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.Socrates said:@Danny565
Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.0 -
I was thinking of something to say...Danny565 said:
I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.Socrates said:@Danny565
Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.
I'll just go for-
#indypanama
You should have let me have the girl with glasses Sky news!!!
0 -
Stephen Noon @StephenNoon 3 mins
ICM - women back Yes by 52% to 48% for No. Very significant shift of opinion. #BBCindyref0 -
The high Yes bids on. Bet fair being taken out now...gone from 7.4 bid down to 6.4.. Corresponding uptick on the No side 1.18 trading.0
-
That argument (even if you count the currency as 'trivial') was deliberately thrown away by the Yes campaign, whose initial arguments in favour of independence largely comprised some specious nonsense about subsidies for childcare and other minor spending issues (several of which were already within Holyrood's power anyway):Danny565 said:Why exactly would someone who was tempted by independence change their mind just because they might not be able to keep the pound? When you're doing something as drastic as wanting to break away and become a new country, why on earth would you be stopped by something as (relatively) trivial as that?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25088251
They can't have it both ways. If they wanted the argument to centre on the big picture, why on earth launch the campaign on (highly dubious) claims about minor policies?
Was ever a campaign more ill-conceived?
0 -
And that is an example of why it can be ignored politically, if people cared about their currency there would have been a revolution in europe already, there are too many economic illiterates for sensitive economic issues to matter in a democracy.Socrates said:@Danny565
Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.0 -
Did Salmond break "purdah" by mentioning the Ferguson shipbuilding yard?0
-
Oh noess!!! The gold standard has defined the new ideology.Theuniondivvie said:Stephen Noon @StephenNoon 3 mins
ICM - women back Yes by 52% to 48% for No. Very significant shift of opinion. #BBCindyref
I don't even like Irn Bru.....
0 -
ICM sample based on Mike's tweet would seem to lean strongly yes compared to most previous polls, but even then before and after debate made no difference to voting intention 51-49 NO before, 51-49 NO after https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB0
-
From Mike (above)
"ICM/Guardian debate poll found that sample was 51-49 to NO before debate and 51-49 to NO afterwards."0 -
*get's his serious blazer on (as opposed to the comedy one) [tbf - they both look cool]*No_Offence_Alan said:Did Salmond break "purdah" by mentioning the Ferguson shipbuilding yard?
No.
0 -
I'm not sure it does. National identity is a very important emotional thing. But currency choices will literally determine how good people's living standards for their entire lives. It's certainly a much more important issue than oil, private providers in the NHS, the bedroom tax and and all the other stuff they talk about.Danny565 said:
I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.Socrates said:@Danny565
Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.0 -
No it doesn't. A country which doesn't have its own currency is not independent in any meaningful sense.Danny565 said:
I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.Socrates said:@Danny565
Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.0 -
98% of yes supporters watching the debate said Salmond won, 59% of no supporters said Darling won. But overall no minds changed. Says something.0
-
So no change.HYUFD said:ICM sample based on Mike's tweet would seem to lean strongly yes compared to most previous polls, but even then before and after debate made no difference to voting intention 51-49 NO before, 51-49 NO after https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB
It seems both camps are fairly solid, after 3 years of electoral campaigning people might have switched off.0 -
FPT
Proportionally, women were much more likely to say that Alex Salmond won the debate (77%) than men (63%). Overall, with don’t knows excluded, 71% of all respondents said Salmond won.0 -
Why is Socrates allowed on this thread??
We should have PB Scot border checks.
Just like an Independent Scotland.0 -
@Socratese
" but to pretend it isn't (regulation) there is just ignorance. "
I said : "and to a large extent are "unfettered"."
Who, is pretending what exactly?
0 -
So the debates were a waste of time.
The voters have decided what to vote ages ago and nothing will move them.0 -
Speedy Indeed, We political geeks LOVE debates, but has there ever been a debate which won an election? Romney trounced Obama in his first debate, he lost the election, JFK beat Nixon handsomely, he won the election by less than 1% and arguably lost the popular vote excluding dodgy ballot stuffing, Cleggmania in 2010, the LDs actually lost seats!0
-
Salmond won debate with Labour voters as well as SNP, while Darling preferred by Lib Dem and Tory voters. Suggests NHS & poverty effective @sundersays
Maybe with women too. Though 'winning' the debate not necessarily the same as winning votes. Or even the argument.
0 -
So if ICM is to be believed the shouting match made no difference at all. That's not a huge surprise. Anyone looking for enlightenment from that exchange would have been sorely disappointed.0
-
The economy and the currency in your pocket is more fundamental to something as relatively trivial and flimsy as identity.Danny565 said:
I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.Socrates said:@Danny565
Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.0 -
Debates can close the gap, as they did for Romney in 2012, but they rarely change the weather, this debate will have shored up Yes and ensured it gets 40-45%, but did it get Yes over the 50% needed to win, almost certainly not
0 -
Especially as virtually nobody seriously denies the existence of the Scottish identity anyway. It isn't something that is remotely suppressed within the Union.Philip_Thompson said:
The economy and the currency in your pocket is more fundamental to something as relatively trivial and flimsy as identity.Danny565 said:
I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.Socrates said:@Danny565
Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.
0 -
Two (deliberate?) errors by Darling not picked up:
1) he stated countries like Panama that use someone else's currency can't run budget deficits - CIA World Factbook state Panama had an estimated deficit of 2.6% of GDP in 2013
2) He claimed that 8,000 jobs depended on Faslane and Coulport because Trident is based there - the official MoD estimate is that 520 civilian jobs directly depend on that ( FOI answer quoted by the Herald newspaper).
Expect to see more brought ouit tomorrow.0 -
My first instinct as an Englishman is to say:
Moderated OFF SCOTLAND.
However,
I appreciate that that is to a large extent because I loathe ASalmond and all the people who are vocal on the "Yes" campaign (apart from you @malcolmg).
Actually, I would very much like Scotland to remain a part of one of, arguably the most successful unions of our times.
But the degree of disingenuousness from Yes about the nitty gritty, in particular the currency, which relies hugely upon the ignorance of the broad masses who will be voting, beggars belief.
I await September 19th with great apprehension.
0 -
Spot on. The debate was rancorous and unedifying. The audience was overly populated by clear activists and thoroughly unrepresentative.SouthamObserver said:So if ICM is to be believed the shouting match made no difference at all. That's not a huge surprise. Anyone looking for enlightenment from that exchange would have been sorely disappointed.
0 -
-
The Scots dislike the Westminster status quo, as do the English, the Welsh and the Northern Irish. But the Scots have the chance to do something about it. That's what will win it for Yes. Not arguments about the economy or national identity. The SNP understands this and are fighting the campaign based on it. What happens after the Yes is entirely immaterial. They are telling voters what they want hear. When it turns out to be wrong why on earth would the SNP care? They'll have everything that they want.0
-
Some numbers need to be revised, this is just in from the Guardian live feed:
"And here are the figures from the poll on voting intention in the referendum. This is what people said after the debate.
Will you vote yes or no? (don’t knows included)
(Figures from the last debate in brackets)
Yes: 45% (42%)
No: 47% (47%
Don’t know: 8% (11%)
Will you vote yes or now (don’t knows excluded)
Yes: 49% (47%)
No: 51% (53%)"
The movement was probably before the debate though.0 -
Might come as a surprise to Panama, Ecuador, France, Italy, Spain, Germany etc.david_herdson said:
No it doesn't. A country which doesn't have its own currency is not independent in any meaningful sense.Danny565 said:
I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.Socrates said:@Danny565
Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.0 -
Sky: Twitter gives it to Salmond by more than 4:1...0
-
So when everyone was on the gold standard, was no country independent?david_herdson said:
No it doesn't. A country which doesn't have its own currency is not independent in any meaningful sense.Danny565 said:
I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.Socrates said:@Danny565
Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.0 -
@Smarmeron:FPT
The free market may not be truly free, and it certainly isn't the mechanism whereby everything is or should be decided, but it is important. An independent Scotland can't stop a maker of widgits relocating his business to England - of course it may work the other way around too. It is though a big unknown, and much more important to the people of Scotland than empty aspirations.0 -
Turnout should edge it for YES on those figures...Speedy said:Some numbers need to be revised, this is just in from the Guardian live feed:
"And here are the figures from the poll on voting intention in the referendum. This is what people said after the debate.
Will you vote yes or no? (don’t knows included)
(Figures from the last debate in brackets)
Yes: 45% (42%)
No: 47% (47%
Don’t know: 8% (11%)
Will you vote yes or now (don’t knows excluded)
Yes: 49% (47%)
No: 51% (53%)"
The movement was probably before the debate though.0 -
True, momentum might also add to it.RodCrosby said:
Turnout should edge it for YES on those figures...Speedy said:Some numbers need to be revised, this is just in from the Guardian live feed:
"And here are the figures from the poll on voting intention in the referendum. This is what people said after the debate.
Will you vote yes or no? (don’t knows included)
(Figures from the last debate in brackets)
Yes: 45% (42%)
No: 47% (47%
Don’t know: 8% (11%)
Will you vote yes or now (don’t knows excluded)
Yes: 49% (47%)
No: 51% (53%)"
The movement was probably before the debate though.
If we won't see YES taking the lead in the polls in the next week with all the positives from the debate, then I can't imagine when its going to.0 -
Of course countries that do not have their own currencies can run budget deficits. However, their inability to default through inflation is removed.sarissa said:Two (deliberate?) errors by Darling not picked up:
1) he stated countries like Panama that use someone else's currency can't run budget deficits - CIA World Factbook state Panama had an estimated deficit of 2.6% of GDP in 2013
2) He claimed that 8,000 jobs depended on Faslane and Coulport because Trident is based there - the official MoD estimate is that 520 civilian jobs directly depend on that ( FOI answer quoted by the Herald newspaper).
Expect to see more brought ouit tomorrow.
In other words, they are forced to behave more responsibly.
Countries that borrow in foreign currencies (as with the Asian crisis of the late 1990s, or Argentina or Brazil or many others) must either behave very responsibly or run acropper.0 -
Except that will be a poll of debate viewers.RodCrosby said:
Turnout should edge it for YES on those figures...Speedy said:Some numbers need to be revised, this is just in from the Guardian live feed:
"And here are the figures from the poll on voting intention in the referendum. This is what people said after the debate.
Will you vote yes or no? (don’t knows included)
(Figures from the last debate in brackets)
Yes: 45% (42%)
No: 47% (47%
Don’t know: 8% (11%)
Will you vote yes or now (don’t knows excluded)
Yes: 49% (47%)
No: 51% (53%)"
The movement was probably before the debate though.
0 -
@Omnium
The "unknown" part is what might me vote for "Yes", but unfortunately, they all tend to debate on what they pretend to know, instead of exploring the possibilities.
Our economy in the UK is not in a good position, we are still far too exposed to the financial sector, and old ideas are just not working.0 -
Is the debate worth watching?
I have it recorded.
Or do I go to bed?0 -
GDP is up.Smarmeron said:@Omnium
The "unknown" part is what might me vote for "Yes", but unfortunately, they all tend to debate on what they pretend to know, instead of exploring the possibilities.
Our economy in the UK is not in a good position, we are still far too exposed to the financial sector, and old ideas are just not working.
You probably vote labour.
You should stop trolling this respected site Smarmy.
0 -
@TheScreamingEagles
Go to bed, I haven't seen it either, but I can guarantee it will be the same cr*p you have heard before.
0 -
Salmond: disingenuous.TheScreamingEagles said:Is the debate worth watching?
I have it recorded.
Or do I go to bed?
Darling: boring, slow, reassuring.
Interesting to note how unsophisticated the electorate is.
Although we knew that, didn't we.0 -
A lot of shouting. Salmond much better. Darling pretty nervous, not that effective. Salmond wins. Very few minds changed.TheScreamingEagles said:Is the debate worth watching?
I have it recorded.
Or do I go to bed?
0 -
Rod ICM seems to lean Yes in these debate polls, as your figures show they actually had a slight swing to Yes after the first debate, yet Survation showed a clear swing to No0
-
Good to fire up Salmond's supporters though.SouthamObserver said:
A lot of shouting. Salmond much better. Darling pretty nervous, not that effective. Salmond wins. Very few minds changed.TheScreamingEagles said:Is the debate worth watching?
I have it recorded.
Or do I go to bed?0 -
On turnout, of course the oldest voters lean the most to No and they will be most likely to turn out0
-
If you like Michael Bay movies, or Jerry Springer, you will like the debate, it was like this:TheScreamingEagles said:Is the debate worth watching?
I have it recorded.
Or do I go to bed?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w27meg0YfEU0 -
Rod, this poll is of people who watched the debate and were prepared to fill in a survey about it, not a sample of the electorate. This poll attracts unusually large numbers of Yes voting women and No voting men. It's also probably biased to Yes, if we assume ICM vote shares haven't changed since their poll earlier this month
0 -
Those Darling quotes about the NHS are like gold dust to the Tories and they will use the clips of them.
Yes or no, it is a sad end for Darling's political career.
Kicked upstairs to the Lords next year, I suppose.timmo said:Won't make a jot of difference except to the Tories who I believe will have benefitted from Darlings support for their spending on the NHS and a reminder to all how much of a shower the last Labour admin were...
Good strategy from Cameron....0 -
They were pretty fired up already. They are less than four weeks from victory.RobD said:
Good to fire up Salmond's supporters though.SouthamObserver said:
A lot of shouting. Salmond much better. Darling pretty nervous, not that effective. Salmond wins. Very few minds changed.TheScreamingEagles said:Is the debate worth watching?
I have it recorded.
Or do I go to bed?
0 -
Topping/Southam/Smameron
Thanks, I'll watch it in the morning.0 -
I love Michael Bay movies.Speedy said:
If you like Michael Bay movies, or Jerry Springer, you will like the debate, it was like this:TheScreamingEagles said:Is the debate worth watching?
I have it recorded.
Or do I go to bed?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=w27meg0YfEU0 -
Is there going to be a third debate, or is that all we're getting?0
-
Well, I'm not sure that old ideas aren't working. People generally lead better lives than they did in the past in the western world, and much if not most of the developing world. Apart from the huge debts, the UK economy isn't too badly off either - there is a narrower distribution of economic activity than you'd ideally want though I agree.Smarmeron said:@Omnium
The "unknown" part is what might me vote for "Yes", but unfortunately, they all tend to debate on what they pretend to know, instead of exploring the possibilities.
Our economy in the UK is not in a good position, we are still far too exposed to the financial sector, and old ideas are just not working.
Certainly voting yes with a view that the unknown will yield positives is sensible enough. My hunch is that the unknown will actually turn out quite badly for an independent Scotland, so if I had a vote it'd certainly be no - and primarily for that reason.
0 -
Don't know if I can take the anxiety!TheScreamingEagles said:Is there going to be a third debate, or is that all we're getting?
0 -
@TheScreamingEagles
Can we handle any more?
Drowning in bullshit is not my choice of ways to shuffle off this mortal coil0 -
Haven't you got it the wrong way round? It's the Unionists who keep talking about a modern version of Hadrian's Wall at the north end of EWNI.JBriskin said:Why is Socrates allowed on this thread??
We should have PB Scot border checks.
Just like an Independent Scotland.
Now a serious point for anyone interested/able to explain:
On the 'no change during the debate' for the audience - not sure how you get that, I recall seeing about 15 members of the audience changed no to yes and 4 yes to no: unless they are weighting the new noes 3x the new yeses???
0 -
Wait until September 18/19, that's when we're all going to be anxious.RobD said:
Don't know if I can take the anxiety!TheScreamingEagles said:Is there going to be a third debate, or is that all we're getting?
0 -
TSE No, that is it, I suggest BT takes the 1-1 draw with a month to polling day and focuses on getting No voters out, very few now left to change their minds0
-
I wouldn't be totally surprised if Bettertogether start making some third debate noises.TheScreamingEagles said:Is there going to be a third debate, or is that all we're getting?
0 -
team PB Scotland confusing me now.
Night all.0 -
Isn't the key point here that the ICM poll showed an almost even split before the debate? That's very different from prevkious polls. Either it's a dramatic narrowing of the gap, or it's a duff sample.
0 -
Indeed, I guess there's not much time to schedule one.Theuniondivvie said:
I wouldn't be totally surprised if Bettertogether start making some third debate noises.TheScreamingEagles said:Is there going to be a third debate, or is that all we're getting?
0 -
With Mr Cameron for a change? Ooh, that'd be interesting to see (said in all seriousness).Theuniondivvie said:
I wouldn't be totally surprised if Bettertogether start making some third debate noises.TheScreamingEagles said:Is there going to be a third debate, or is that all we're getting?
0 -
@Omnium
The "old ideas" cannot possibly work, this is an entirely new age that the original ideas were never expected to cope with.
At some point, the world has to wake up to the fact that "wealth" is purely based on confidence, and dissapears to the nearest tax haven when confidence deserts the scene.
(and with our reliance on confidence in the UK, we get the dockside hooker treatment)0 -
I think this one is a poll of debate-watchers whereas the previous ones were polls of all voters?NickPalmer said:Isn't the key point here that the ICM poll showed an almost even split before the debate? That's very different from prevkious polls. Either it's a dramatic narrowing of the gap, or it's a duff sample.
0 -
It all comes down on whether scotland can have a diversified balanced economy.Smarmeron said:@Omnium
The "unknown" part is what might me vote for "Yes", but unfortunately, they all tend to debate on what they pretend to know, instead of exploring the possibilities.
Our economy in the UK is not in a good position, we are still far too exposed to the financial sector, and old ideas are just not working.
In my opinion it doesn't (it's population is too small, my lower rate is 23.5 million people for a diversified economy to be possible), it will only just stay afloat until the oil runs out (and it wont be long, oil production is down 70% since its peak in 1998, it has halved in just 7 years) and then it will crash.
Nauru is a perfect example of what happens when you put all your eggs in one basket.
It might go the irish way but that is just low corporate tax rates for companies to move their HQ's but not their production and it didn't save Ireland from economic collapse in the end either. Scotland would need to drastically alter its social and economic policies to achieve such a low rate, also it would have to compete with other low coprorate tax havens that already exist so it might not get a big enough share of HQ's to stay afloat.0 -
NP I prefer the first point, has been little I can see to change things from the last sample, but ICM does seem to jump about more than most0
-
Should have sent Katie Hopkins
Britain denied key EU role for not picking a woman
Jean-Claude Juncker expresses frustration that 'despite my repeated requests', most governments, including Britain, have put forward men for the most important positions in Europe
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11055397/Britain-denied-key-EU-role-for-not-picking-a-woman.html0 -
ICM have put up their data tables
http://www.icmresearch.com/media-centre/polls/salmond-vs-darling-independence-referendum-debate-20
