@Omnium The "unknown" part is what might me vote for "Yes", but unfortunately, they all tend to debate on what they pretend to know, instead of exploring the possibilities. Our economy in the UK is not in a good position, we are still far too exposed to the financial sector, and old ideas are just not working.
It all comes down on whether scotland can have a diversified balanced economy. In my opinion it doesn't (it's population is too small, my lower rate is 23.5 million people for a diversified economy to be possible), it will only just stay afloat until the oil runs out (and it wont be long, oil production is down 70% since its peak in 1998, it has halved in just 7 years) and then it will crash. Nauru is a perfect example of what happens when you put all your eggs in one basket.
It might go the irish way but that is just low corporate tax rates for companies to move their HQ's but not their production and it didn't save Ireland from economic collapse in the end either. Scotland would need to drastically alter its social and economic policies to achieve such a low rate, also it would have to compete with other low coprorate tax havens that already exist so it might not get a big enough share of HQ's to stay afloat.
Isn't the key point here that the ICM poll showed an almost even split before the debate? That's very different from prevkious polls. Either it's a dramatic narrowing of the gap, or it's a duff sample.
I think this one is a poll of debate-watchers whereas the previous ones were polls of all voters?
ICM did the same after the first debate, 53% No, 47% Yes (also no change before & after), so certainly well within moe for a 500 respondent poll.
@Speedy It depends on how you make the best use of your resources, I Have no great hope of Salmond leading us forward, because he is incapable of thinking past the "shortbread". The SNP are a busted flush after sepparation, and any future government will not be theirs
@TheScreamingEagles The current nuclear stockpile could wipe the planet out three times over. We hardly even add a small ornament onto the cake. It's function is to convince the population that we still have relavence in a world that is leaving us behind.
@Omnium The "unknown" part is what might me vote for "Yes", but unfortunately, they all tend to debate on what they pretend to know, instead of exploring the possibilities. Our economy in the UK is not in a good position, we are still far too exposed to the financial sector, and old ideas are just not working.
It all comes down on whether scotland can have a diversified balanced economy. In my opinion it doesn't (it's population is too small, my lower rate is 23.5 million people for a diversified economy to be possible), it will only just stay afloat until the oil runs out (and it wont be long, oil production is down 70% since its peak in 1998, it has halved in just 7 years) and then it will crash. Nauru is a perfect example of what happens when you put all your eggs in one basket.
It might go the irish way but that is just low corporate tax rates for companies to move their HQ's but not their production and it didn't save Ireland from economic collapse in the end either. Scotland would need to drastically alter its social and economic policies to achieve such a low rate, also it would have to compete with other low coprorate tax havens that already exist so it might not get a big enough share of HQ's to stay afloat.
So Yemen (pop 26 million) can have a diversified economy, but Netherlands (pop 17 million) can't?
Jean-Claude Juncker expresses frustration that 'despite my repeated requests', most governments, including Britain, have put forward men for the most important positions in Europe
Juncker must be the only person in Europe who looks at Cathy Ashton and thinks "I want more of that"...
@Speedy It depends on how you make the best use of your resources, I Have no great hope of Salmond leading us forward, because he is incapable of thinking past the "shortbread". The SNP are a busted flush after sepparation, and any future government will not be theirs
If the SNP wern't sure they won't hold total power after independence they would have gone simply for a devomax. That is their aim I think to make SNP and only the SNP govern scotland (not some London based non-SNP guy) forever and ever.
George Galloway @georgegalloway 30 mins Urgent: to the leaders of No Campaign: better put me, Gordon Brown Jim Murphy Helen Liddle and John Reid at the head of this campaign. Quick
Jean-Claude Juncker expresses frustration that 'despite my repeated requests', most governments, including Britain, have put forward men for the most important positions in Europe
Juncker must be the only person in Europe who looks at Cathy Ashton and thinks "I want more of that"...
The next postholder will be hard pressed to match her performance.
@Omnium The "unknown" part is what might me vote for "Yes", but unfortunately, they all tend to debate on what they pretend to know, instead of exploring the possibilities. Our economy in the UK is not in a good position, we are still far too exposed to the financial sector, and old ideas are just not working.
It all comes down on whether scotland can have a diversified balanced economy. In my opinion it doesn't (it's population is too small, my lower rate is 23.5 million people for a diversified economy to be possible), it will only just stay afloat until the oil runs out (and it wont be long, oil production is down 70% since its peak in 1998, it has halved in just 7 years) and then it will crash. Nauru is a perfect example of what happens when you put all your eggs in one basket.
It might go the irish way but that is just low corporate tax rates for companies to move their HQ's but not their production and it didn't save Ireland from economic collapse in the end either. Scotland would need to drastically alter its social and economic policies to achieve such a low rate, also it would have to compete with other low coprorate tax havens that already exist so it might not get a big enough share of HQ's to stay afloat.
So Yemen (pop 26 million) can have a diversified economy, but Netherlands (pop 17 million) can't?
Yep, and the figures prove me so, despite the big difference in economic size.
The Netherlands depend on German trade, it's the biggest transit country for german exports and imports, their economy is based on trade since its creation. Yemen have no dependency on any particular economic sector.
I can give you other examples, Romania and Bulgaria. One country (Romania) is just under the limit (although in the recent past it was just over it) and it has even its own car industry, Bulgaria on the other hand is too small of a market to have a variety of production.
@Speedy It won't work for very long. The SNP are a disparate bunch welded by the idea of independence, which will come apart once it is achieved.
Their idea is not independence but total power, their thirst for power is what keeps them together. If its NO and scottish independence dies the SNP would lose hope of achieving total power and will wither away.
I don't understand - as I said at the time - why Darling agreed to a second debate. He was bound to do worse, compared to the first time around (when he ambushed Salmond on the currency).
Stupid stupid stupid. He could have trotted out any number of reasons why a 2nd debate wasn't necessary or workable, as Salmond would have done in the same circs (if he'd trounced Darling in round 1).
I still think NO will win but it's now going to be very very tight.
We face, ludicrously, the potential break up of the UK because the Labour Party are a bunch of useless, traitorous c*nts and anyone who supports them is the same. Labour and British lefties are little better than ISIS. They have spent their entire political careers trying to destroy all concepts of Englishness and Britishness, with mass immigration and multiculturalism et al, and now they are about to reap what they sowed when Britain is broken up into two pieces, Scotland and rUK, neither of which will vote in a Labour government for a generation.
How do you like that haggis, Mr Brown?
I always thought Darling was crap,tonight proved it ;-) do you remember a certain poster who thought he was the bee's knee's ;-)
@Speedy I tend not to think so. What drives them is a dream of what independence means, and the dream is different throughout their demography. After the euphoria of victory, the cracks will re-appear.
@Omnium The "unknown" part is what might me vote for "Yes", but unfortunately, they all tend to debate on what they pretend to know, instead of exploring the possibilities. Our economy in the UK is not in a good position, we are still far too exposed to the financial sector, and old ideas are just not working.
It all comes down on whether scotland can have a diversified balanced economy. In my opinion it doesn't (it's population is too small, my lower rate is 23.5 million people for a diversified economy to be possible), it will only just stay afloat until the oil runs out (and it wont be long, oil production is down 70% since its peak in 1998, it has halved in just 7 years) and then it will crash. Nauru is a perfect example of what happens when you put all your eggs in one basket.
It might go the irish way but that is just low corporate tax rates for companies to move their HQ's but not their production and it didn't save Ireland from economic collapse in the end either. Scotland would need to drastically alter its social and economic policies to achieve such a low rate, also it would have to compete with other low coprorate tax havens that already exist so it might not get a big enough share of HQ's to stay afloat.
So Yemen (pop 26 million) can have a diversified economy, but Netherlands (pop 17 million) can't?
Yep, and the figures prove me so, despite the big difference in economic size.
The Netherlands depend on German trade, it's the biggest transit country for german exports and imports, their economy is based on trade since its creation. Yemen have no dependency on any particular economic sector.
I can give you other examples, Romania and Bulgaria. One country (Romania) is just under the limit (although in the recent past it was just over it) and it has even its own car industry, Bulgaria on the other hand is too small of a market to have a variety of production.
If you are a closed economy (i.e., plan to do everything 'yourself') then you need to be a certain size.
If you are an open economy with no pretensions to self sufficiency, then your size is the least of your issues.
A simple plot of population versus GDP-per-capita shows r-squared of -0.2, which is a statistically insiginficant negative correlation. In other words, size doesn't matter as far as population income and wealth goes.
@SeanT The SNP's version of what an independent Scotland would be like is the same as the better together side. If it happens we will all get on with it, and later on PB will have a thread on the counter-factuals. Chill bro, no one knows the future, or we would all be rich.
According to the tabs on that ICM post debate poll, 96% of Yes voters still voting Yes, 2% No, 95% of No voters voting No, 3% Yes and 63% who were DK's before still Don't Know, with 17% Yes, 20% now No
@SeanT You are undeniably a paranoid "wannabee". There will be changes for both countries, but in the grand scheme of things, it will be the death breath of the old British empire, just a footnote in history. The future will march on. Yes or no, it doesn't worry me that much either way.
Have just been watching on I-Player. Thought it was funny that Darling was hammered by Salmond on all Labour's turf, like the "Bedroom Tax" welfare spending and the Jewel In Labour's crown the NHS.
If the UK does break up let nobody be any doubt that Labour sowed the seeds. Salmond just reaped what the Labour Party sowed.
Have just been watching on I-Player. Thought it was funny that Darling was hammered by Salmond on all Labour's turf, like the "Bedroom Tax" welfare spending and the Jewel In Labour's crown the NHS.
If the UK does break up let nobody be any doubt that Labour sowed the seeds. Salmond just reaped what the Labour Party sowed.
I feel you're trying to hard to pin it on Labour here.
And one other point I found very enlightening. When the question was asked what would happen after the referendum, Salmond made quite clear that in the event of a YES vote it would be all hands to the pump for Team Scotland as they attempt to hammer the rest of the UK in the negotiations.
The rest of the UK would of course take a very similar, possibly even more strident view, which brings my thesis that a YES vote will lead to the Conservative landslide at Westminster in the next election.
The rest of the UK will want to a strong government with a strong mandate to be as tough as possible with Salmond (the Scottish issue isn't playing but in the rest of the UK now, but in the event of YES it will become THE defining issue of the coming election)
Would they seriously think Ed Milliband and Scottish dominated Labour would do right by the rest of Britain in a negotiation with Scotland? I think not.
SeanT Agree with most of that, though indy would hit both nations, plus of course Wales and NI (though neither of those 2 nations are complaining as much as the Scots), and of course Miliband still leads the English and Welsh polls even without the Scots.
However, having read the post debate ICM poll cross-tabs below, 95%+ of Yes and No voters are still voting Yes and No, and most of the few undecideds left are still undecideds, so the poll trend, a clear but not overwhelming No lead, should remain little changed
Have just been watching on I-Player. Thought it was funny that Darling was hammered by Salmond on all Labour's turf, like the "Bedroom Tax" welfare spending and the Jewel In Labour's crown the NHS.
If the UK does break up let nobody be any doubt that Labour sowed the seeds. Salmond just reaped what the Labour Party sowed.
I feel you're trying to hard to pin it on Labour here.
Not at all. Just thought it was notable that so many of the things Salmond is campaigning on is Labour's ground/turf/rhetoric, etc...
@GIN1138 Scotland is at heart, a naturally "socialist" country. Labour rhetoric has an appeal for a community that is based on struggle. The south of England, for a variety of reasons has managed to avoid a fair bit of it. You "ARE" different.
Have just been watching on I-Player. Thought it was funny that Darling was hammered by Salmond on all Labour's turf, like the "Bedroom Tax" welfare spending and the Jewel In Labour's crown the NHS.
If the UK does break up let nobody be any doubt that Labour sowed the seeds. Salmond just reaped what the Labour Party sowed.
I feel you're trying to hard to pin it on Labour here.
Not at all. Just thought it was notable that so many of the things Salmond is campaigning on is Labour's ground/turf/rhetoric, etc...
The SNP are a broadly left wing party facing off against a Conservative-led government.
It's hardly surprising their rhetoric is similar to Labour's (and if wasn't the 'Bedroom tax' it'd be something else), but that's not to say Labour sowed the seeds of independence.
Have just been watching on I-Player. Thought it was funny that Darling was hammered by Salmond on all Labour's turf, like the "Bedroom Tax" welfare spending and the Jewel In Labour's crown the NHS.
If the UK does break up let nobody be any doubt that Labour sowed the seeds. Salmond just reaped what the Labour Party sowed.
I feel you're trying to hard to pin it on Labour here.
Not at all. Just thought it was notable that so many of the things Salmond is campaigning on is Labour's ground/turf/rhetoric, etc...
The SNP are a broadly left wing party facing off against a Conservative-led government.
It's hardly surprising their rhetoric is similar to Labour's (and if wasn't the 'Bedroom tax' it'd be something else), but that's not to say Labour sowed the seeds of independence.
Wasn't devolution going to "kill the independence debate stone dead"? LOL!
Labour will carry a lot of the can with the rest of the UK if Scotland leaves (probably with Cameron to be fair, but in the grand scheme of things who gives a stuff about Lord Ponceyboots, whatever... LOL)
A Tory landslide (with someone other than Cameron) and Labour out of power in Westminster for a generation is my view if what will happen in Westminster should Scotland leave the UK.
@GIN1138 Scotland is at heart, a naturally "socialist" country..
If you mean, "geographically" and the central belt, and certainly the western part of it, then that is a fair analysis - it's also where (iirc) around 80% of the population live. However, much of the rest of Scotland is small c conservative.....
Have just been watching on I-Player. Thought it was funny that Darling was hammered by Salmond on all Labour's turf, like the "Bedroom Tax" welfare spending and the Jewel In Labour's crown the NHS.
If the UK does break up let nobody be any doubt that Labour sowed the seeds. Salmond just reaped what the Labour Party sowed.
I feel you're trying to hard to pin it on Labour here.
Not at all. Just thought it was notable that so many of the things Salmond is campaigning on is Labour's ground/turf/rhetoric, etc...
The SNP are a broadly left wing party facing off against a Conservative-led government.
It's hardly surprising their rhetoric is similar to Labour's (and if wasn't the 'Bedroom tax' it'd be something else), but that's not to say Labour sowed the seeds of independence.
Wasn't devolution going to "kill the independence debate stone dead"? LOL!
Labour will carry a lot of the can with the rest of the UK if Scotland leaves (probably with Cameron to be fair, but in the grand scheme of things who gives a stuff about Lord Ponceyboots, whatever... LOL)
A Tory landslide (with someone other than Cameron) and Labour out of power in Westminster for a generation is my view if what will happen in Westminster should Scotland leave the UK.
Do it Scotland. Do it!!!!!
Night all.
It was the Thatcher government which turned the Scots against the UK. Look at the precipitate drop in Conservative representation from two dozen to zero.
And Labour would have won in 1997, 2001 and 2005 without Scotland so Ed's missus can still measure up the curtains for 2015.
@GIN1138 Scotland is at heart, a naturally "socialist" country..
If you mean, "geographically" and the central belt, and certainly the western part of it, then that is a fair analysis - it's also where (iirc) around 80% of the population live. However, much of the rest of Scotland is small c conservative.....
judging by many communicants of this site, though, where parts of Scotland are small c conservative, much of England appears to large R rightwing, or large L libertarian.
Comments
It depends on how you make the best use of your resources, I Have no great hope of Salmond leading us forward, because he is incapable of thinking past the "shortbread".
The SNP are a busted flush after sepparation, and any future government will not be theirs
Colin Fox @colinfoxssp 2h
#bbcindyref Darling says TRIDENT must stay because of the jobs. Would he have retained slavery because of jobs in manacle making industries?
The current nuclear stockpile could wipe the planet out three times over. We hardly even add a small ornament onto the cake.
It's function is to convince the population that we still have relavence in a world that is leaving us behind.
That is their aim I think to make SNP and only the SNP govern scotland (not some London based non-SNP guy) forever and ever.
George Galloway @georgegalloway 30 mins
Urgent: to the leaders of No Campaign: better put me, Gordon Brown Jim Murphy Helen Liddle and John Reid at the head of this campaign. Quick
‘Sex superbug’ fears over powerful new drug resistant strain of gonorrhoea"
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/aug/25/sex-superbug-fears-over-new-strain-gonorrhoea
You have more important things to worry about than independence.
The Netherlands depend on German trade, it's the biggest transit country for german exports and imports, their economy is based on trade since its creation.
Yemen have no dependency on any particular economic sector.
I can give you other examples, Romania and Bulgaria.
One country (Romania) is just under the limit (although in the recent past it was just over it) and it has even its own car industry, Bulgaria on the other hand is too small of a market to have a variety of production.
It won't work for very long. The SNP are a disparate bunch welded by the idea of independence, which will come apart once it is achieved.
I tend not to think so.
What drives them is a dream of what independence means, and the dream is different throughout their demography.
After the euphoria of victory, the cracks will re-appear.
If you are a closed economy (i.e., plan to do everything 'yourself') then you need to be a certain size.
If you are an open economy with no pretensions to self sufficiency, then your size is the least of your issues.
A simple plot of population versus GDP-per-capita shows r-squared of -0.2, which is a statistically insiginficant negative correlation. In other words, size doesn't matter as far as population income and wealth goes.
The SNP's version of what an independent Scotland would be like is the same as the better together side.
If it happens we will all get on with it, and later on PB will have a thread on the counter-factuals.
Chill bro, no one knows the future, or we would all be rich.
See p 6 http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/ScotDebate2_Aug2014.pdf
You are undeniably a paranoid "wannabee".
There will be changes for both countries, but in the grand scheme of things, it will be the death breath of the old British empire, just a footnote in history.
The future will march on.
Yes or no, it doesn't worry me that much either way.
If the UK does break up let nobody be any doubt that Labour sowed the seeds. Salmond just reaped what the Labour Party sowed.
You haven't traveled that much in Scotland, have you Gin?
The rest of the UK would of course take a very similar, possibly even more strident view, which brings my thesis that a YES vote will lead to the Conservative landslide at Westminster in the next election.
The rest of the UK will want to a strong government with a strong mandate to be as tough as possible with Salmond (the Scottish issue isn't playing but in the rest of the UK now, but in the event of YES it will become THE defining issue of the coming election)
Would they seriously think Ed Milliband and Scottish dominated Labour would do right by the rest of Britain in a negotiation with Scotland? I think not.
However, having read the post debate ICM poll cross-tabs below, 95%+ of Yes and No voters are still voting Yes and No, and most of the few undecideds left are still undecideds, so the poll trend, a clear but not overwhelming No lead, should remain little changed
Look you mad tart, I am trying to hold true to my principles, .......you are not making it easy!
*sticks tongue out*
Scotland is at heart, a naturally "socialist" country.
Labour rhetoric has an appeal for a community that is based on struggle.
The south of England, for a variety of reasons has managed to avoid a fair bit of it.
You "ARE" different.
It's hardly surprising their rhetoric is similar to Labour's (and if wasn't the 'Bedroom tax' it'd be something else), but that's not to say Labour sowed the seeds of independence.
Policy wise, usually left, but at the top there is a lot of rightwing thought, which is a major problem if independence comes.
Labour will carry a lot of the can with the rest of the UK if Scotland leaves (probably with Cameron to be fair, but in the grand scheme of things who gives a stuff about Lord Ponceyboots, whatever... LOL)
A Tory landslide (with someone other than Cameron) and Labour out of power in Westminster for a generation is my view if what will happen in Westminster should Scotland leave the UK.
Do it Scotland. Do it!!!!!
Night all.
And Labour would have won in 1997, 2001 and 2005 without Scotland so Ed's missus can still measure up the curtains for 2015.