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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM has it as a decisive win for Salmond – but will his per

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited August 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM has it as a decisive win for Salmond – but will his performance swing votes?

The debate ends with the Betfair betting market unmoved. YES 13.5% chance. Now we wait for the ICM debate poll
pic.twitter.com/xJiVsE52Cs

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    First
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    Wont change the votes
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Second - running out of malt...
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    It wasn't malt anyway...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014
    We won't know until a new indyref poll is out.
    I will be suprised if there is no change.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Won't make a jot of difference except to the Tories who I believe will have benefitted from Darlings support for their spending on the NHS and a reminder to all how much of a shower the last Labour admin were...
    Good strategy from Cameron....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I suspected all along that the press were getting carried away with all their talk about how the "Yes" campaign had been killed after the first debate, but hoped I was wrong. Darling picking holes in the SNP's currency plans might embarrass Alex Salmond personally, but it does absolutely NOTHING to address the substance of the issue.

    Why exactly would someone who was tempted by independence change their mind just because they might not be able to keep the pound? When you're doing something as drastic as wanting to break away and become a new country, why on earth would you be stopped by something as (relatively) trivial as that? Like some Scottish author said on that Newsnight special last week, it's the equivalent of a couple who hate eachother staying together just because they can't decide what to do with their joint CD collection.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Don't think much will change. IMO What this referendum comes down to now is whether the pollsters have got their methodology right. If they have then the vote was decided in favour of No a long time ago. If they haven't...

    It's not about movement or woo-ing of the claimed undecided, just about whether the polls are right.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @Danny565

    Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Missed the debate and might watch it if its on catchup tomorrow, would it be worth watching? Was it a good debate? The clash of Man City v LFC at the same time as the debate made it tough to choose but went for watching the match. Should have watched the debate with that scoreline.

    Hope Salmond did well, still want a Yes vote but can't see it happening still.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I suppose James Kelly will say we can't take any notice of this poll showing victory for Salmond because it's just one poll, and it shouldn't influence the mood of the campaign?
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    How much would it harm the Scottish whisky industry if on day 1 of independence the UK Govt doubled the tax for "health reasons"?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    That debate will change very little. Too much shouting. But Salmond won it.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Smarmeron said:

    @Socrates
    And there is the rub, at one time the "market" had a responsibility to one country. Now they have no such restrictions and to a large extent are "unfettered".
    Is this a good thing?

    Complete drivel. Which market out there is unfettered? We have huge amounts of regulation on products, on labour, on companies. Some of that regulation is good and some of that regulation is bad - we'd have to talk about each one on a case by case basis - but to pretend it isn't there is just ignorance.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    All blazered up on SBBC2!!

    Douple Dip Peak Blazer!!!
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    alex said:

    How much would it harm the Scottish whisky industry if on day 1 of independence the UK Govt doubled the tax for "health reasons"?

    Indy pork barrel

    And I was being sarcastic with my DDPB!!!

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Socrates said:

    @Danny565

    Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.

    I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Danny565 said:

    Socrates said:

    @Danny565

    Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.

    I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.
    I was thinking of something to say...

    I'll just go for-

    #indypanama

    You should have let me have the girl with glasses Sky news!!!

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,142
    Stephen Noon ‏@StephenNoon 3 mins
    ICM - women back Yes by 52% to 48% for No. Very significant shift of opinion. #BBCindyref
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    The high Yes bids on. Bet fair being taken out now...gone from 7.4 bid down to 6.4.. Corresponding uptick on the No side 1.18 trading.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Danny565 said:

    Why exactly would someone who was tempted by independence change their mind just because they might not be able to keep the pound? When you're doing something as drastic as wanting to break away and become a new country, why on earth would you be stopped by something as (relatively) trivial as that?

    That argument (even if you count the currency as 'trivial') was deliberately thrown away by the Yes campaign, whose initial arguments in favour of independence largely comprised some specious nonsense about subsidies for childcare and other minor spending issues (several of which were already within Holyrood's power anyway):

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25088251

    They can't have it both ways. If they wanted the argument to centre on the big picture, why on earth launch the campaign on (highly dubious) claims about minor policies?

    Was ever a campaign more ill-conceived?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014
    Socrates said:

    @Danny565

    Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.

    And that is an example of why it can be ignored politically, if people cared about their currency there would have been a revolution in europe already, there are too many economic illiterates for sensitive economic issues to matter in a democracy.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,586
    Did Salmond break "purdah" by mentioning the Ferguson shipbuilding yard?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited August 2014
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Stephen Noon ‏@StephenNoon 3 mins
    ICM - women back Yes by 52% to 48% for No. Very significant shift of opinion. #BBCindyref

    Oh noess!!! The gold standard has defined the new ideology.

    I don't even like Irn Bru.....

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    ICM sample based on Mike's tweet would seem to lean strongly yes compared to most previous polls, but even then before and after debate made no difference to voting intention 51-49 NO before, 51-49 NO after https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    From Mike (above)

    "ICM/Guardian debate poll found that sample was 51-49 to NO before debate and 51-49 to NO afterwards."
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Did Salmond break "purdah" by mentioning the Ferguson shipbuilding yard?

    *get's his serious blazer on (as opposed to the comedy one) [tbf - they both look cool]*

    No.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Danny565 said:

    Socrates said:

    @Danny565

    Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.

    I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.
    I'm not sure it does. National identity is a very important emotional thing. But currency choices will literally determine how good people's living standards for their entire lives. It's certainly a much more important issue than oil, private providers in the NHS, the bedroom tax and and all the other stuff they talk about.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Danny565 said:

    Socrates said:

    @Danny565

    Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.

    I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.
    No it doesn't. A country which doesn't have its own currency is not independent in any meaningful sense.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    98% of yes supporters watching the debate said Salmond won, 59% of no supporters said Darling won. But overall no minds changed. Says something.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    ICM sample based on Mike's tweet would seem to lean strongly yes compared to most previous polls, but even then before and after debate made no difference to voting intention 51-49 NO before, 51-49 NO after https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB

    So no change.
    It seems both camps are fairly solid, after 3 years of electoral campaigning people might have switched off.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    FPT

    Proportionally, women were much more likely to say that Alex Salmond won the debate (77%) than men (63%). Overall, with don’t knows excluded, 71% of all respondents said Salmond won.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Why is Socrates allowed on this thread??

    We should have PB Scot border checks.

    Just like an Independent Scotland.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Socratese
    " but to pretend it isn't (regulation) there is just ignorance. "

    I said : "and to a large extent are "unfettered"."

    Who, is pretending what exactly?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014
    So the debates were a waste of time.
    The voters have decided what to vote ages ago and nothing will move them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited August 2014
    Speedy Indeed, We political geeks LOVE debates, but has there ever been a debate which won an election? Romney trounced Obama in his first debate, he lost the election, JFK beat Nixon handsomely, he won the election by less than 1% and arguably lost the popular vote excluding dodgy ballot stuffing, Cleggmania in 2010, the LDs actually lost seats!
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Speedy said:

    So the debates were a waste of time.
    The voters have decided what to vote ages ago and nothing will move them.

    Err, yeah.

    Unfortunately some of us have to live in north Britain...

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited August 2014
    Salmond won debate with Labour voters as well as SNP, while Darling preferred by Lib Dem and Tory voters. Suggests NHS & poverty effective @sundersays

    Maybe with women too. Though 'winning' the debate not necessarily the same as winning votes. Or even the argument.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    So if ICM is to be believed the shouting match made no difference at all. That's not a huge surprise. Anyone looking for enlightenment from that exchange would have been sorely disappointed.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Danny565 said:

    Socrates said:

    @Danny565

    Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.

    I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.
    The economy and the currency in your pocket is more fundamental to something as relatively trivial and flimsy as identity.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Debates can close the gap, as they did for Romney in 2012, but they rarely change the weather, this debate will have shored up Yes and ensured it gets 40-45%, but did it get Yes over the 50% needed to win, almost certainly not
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin
    Why worry, it will be the same day but with different sh*t either way?
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Danny565 said:

    Socrates said:

    @Danny565

    Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.

    I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.
    The economy and the currency in your pocket is more fundamental to something as relatively trivial and flimsy as identity.
    Especially as virtually nobody seriously denies the existence of the Scottish identity anyway. It isn't something that is remotely suppressed within the Union.

  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,000
    Two (deliberate?) errors by Darling not picked up:

    1) he stated countries like Panama that use someone else's currency can't run budget deficits - CIA World Factbook state Panama had an estimated deficit of 2.6% of GDP in 2013

    2) He claimed that 8,000 jobs depended on Faslane and Coulport because Trident is based there - the official MoD estimate is that 520 civilian jobs directly depend on that ( FOI answer quoted by the Herald newspaper).

    Expect to see more brought ouit tomorrow.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited August 2014
    My first instinct as an Englishman is to say:

    Moderated OFF SCOTLAND.

    However,

    I appreciate that that is to a large extent because I loathe ASalmond and all the people who are vocal on the "Yes" campaign (apart from you @malcolmg‌).

    Actually, I would very much like Scotland to remain a part of one of, arguably the most successful unions of our times.

    But the degree of disingenuousness from Yes about the nitty gritty, in particular the currency, which relies hugely upon the ignorance of the broad masses who will be voting, beggars belief.

    I await September 19th with great apprehension.

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    SouthamObserver said:

    So if ICM is to be believed the shouting match made no difference at all. That's not a huge surprise. Anyone looking for enlightenment from that exchange would have been sorely disappointed.

    Spot on. The debate was rancorous and unedifying. The audience was overly populated by clear activists and thoroughly unrepresentative.

  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @JBriskin
    Why worry, it will be the same day but with different sh*t either way?

    I can blame the Yessnp for this referendum year date.

    I'm nae happy.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited August 2014
    @TOPPING
    I await the 9th with a great deal of trepidation. I will be one year older.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin
    While I may not be in the "Yes" camp, at least a vote for separation will save all that arguing with the "shortbread" faction of the SNP.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Smarmeron said:

    @TOPPING
    I await the 9th with a great deal of trepidation. I will be one year older.

    Happy Birthday.

    Be careful; just because it will be legal doesn't mean you have to overdo it.

    A couple of beers should be fine and will introduce you perfectly to the world of alcohol.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @JBriskin
    While I may not be in the "Yes" camp, at least a vote for separation will save all that arguing with the "shortbread" faction of the SNP.

    You need more Malt Smary.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    The Scots dislike the Westminster status quo, as do the English, the Welsh and the Northern Irish. But the Scots have the chance to do something about it. That's what will win it for Yes. Not arguments about the economy or national identity. The SNP understands this and are fighting the campaign based on it. What happens after the Yes is entirely immaterial. They are telling voters what they want hear. When it turns out to be wrong why on earth would the SNP care? They'll have everything that they want.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014
    Some numbers need to be revised, this is just in from the Guardian live feed:


    "And here are the figures from the poll on voting intention in the referendum. This is what people said after the debate.

    Will you vote yes or no? (don’t knows included)

    (Figures from the last debate in brackets)

    Yes: 45% (42%)

    No: 47% (47%

    Don’t know: 8% (11%)

    Will you vote yes or now (don’t knows excluded)

    Yes: 49% (47%)

    No: 51% (53%)"

    The movement was probably before the debate though.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    david_herdson said:

    Danny565 said:

    Socrates said:

    @Danny565

    Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.

    I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.
    No it doesn't. A country which doesn't have its own currency is not independent in any meaningful sense.
    Might come as a surprise to Panama, Ecuador, France, Italy, Spain, Germany etc.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited August 2014
    Sky: Twitter gives it to Salmond by more than 4:1...
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TOPPING
    You have un-birthdays as well?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin
    Does a Scotsman ever need less while he is still awake?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    david_herdson said:

    Danny565 said:

    Socrates said:

    @Danny565

    Only an economic illiterate would think the running of a currency is a trivial issue. You only need to look at mainland Europe right now to see how poor currency choices absolutely wreck economies and ruin millions of people's livelihoods, permanently depressing their quality of life.

    I said it was relatively trivial. Obviously it matters, but it rather pales in comparison to something as fundamental as self-identity/national identity.
    No it doesn't. A country which doesn't have its own currency is not independent in any meaningful sense.
    So when everyone was on the gold standard, was no country independent?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,894
    @Smarmeron:FPT
    The free market may not be truly free, and it certainly isn't the mechanism whereby everything is or should be decided, but it is important. An independent Scotland can't stop a maker of widgits relocating his business to England - of course it may work the other way around too. It is though a big unknown, and much more important to the people of Scotland than empty aspirations.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:

    Some numbers need to be revised, this is just in from the Guardian live feed:


    "And here are the figures from the poll on voting intention in the referendum. This is what people said after the debate.

    Will you vote yes or no? (don’t knows included)

    (Figures from the last debate in brackets)

    Yes: 45% (42%)

    No: 47% (47%

    Don’t know: 8% (11%)

    Will you vote yes or now (don’t knows excluded)

    Yes: 49% (47%)

    No: 51% (53%)"

    The movement was probably before the debate though.

    Turnout should edge it for YES on those figures...
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @TOPPING
    You have un-birthdays as well?

    You're not going to win this one Smarmy - as you may have noted I have the ST Horoscopes (note correct abbreviations) as backing.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Smarmeron said:

    @TOPPING
    You have un-birthdays as well?

    I am ageless.

    Sadly, my mirror disagrees with me.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014
    RodCrosby said:

    Speedy said:

    Some numbers need to be revised, this is just in from the Guardian live feed:


    "And here are the figures from the poll on voting intention in the referendum. This is what people said after the debate.

    Will you vote yes or no? (don’t knows included)

    (Figures from the last debate in brackets)

    Yes: 45% (42%)

    No: 47% (47%

    Don’t know: 8% (11%)

    Will you vote yes or now (don’t knows excluded)

    Yes: 49% (47%)

    No: 51% (53%)"

    The movement was probably before the debate though.

    Turnout should edge it for YES on those figures...
    True, momentum might also add to it.
    If we won't see YES taking the lead in the polls in the next week with all the positives from the debate, then I can't imagine when its going to.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    sarissa said:

    Two (deliberate?) errors by Darling not picked up:

    1) he stated countries like Panama that use someone else's currency can't run budget deficits - CIA World Factbook state Panama had an estimated deficit of 2.6% of GDP in 2013

    2) He claimed that 8,000 jobs depended on Faslane and Coulport because Trident is based there - the official MoD estimate is that 520 civilian jobs directly depend on that ( FOI answer quoted by the Herald newspaper).

    Expect to see more brought ouit tomorrow.

    Of course countries that do not have their own currencies can run budget deficits. However, their inability to default through inflation is removed.

    In other words, they are forced to behave more responsibly.

    Countries that borrow in foreign currencies (as with the Asian crisis of the late 1990s, or Argentina or Brazil or many others) must either behave very responsibly or run acropper.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @JBriskin
    Does a Scotsman ever need less while he is still awake?

    Are Picts Scots?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    RodCrosby said:

    Speedy said:

    Some numbers need to be revised, this is just in from the Guardian live feed:


    "And here are the figures from the poll on voting intention in the referendum. This is what people said after the debate.

    Will you vote yes or no? (don’t knows included)

    (Figures from the last debate in brackets)

    Yes: 45% (42%)

    No: 47% (47%

    Don’t know: 8% (11%)

    Will you vote yes or now (don’t knows excluded)

    Yes: 49% (47%)

    No: 51% (53%)"

    The movement was probably before the debate though.

    Turnout should edge it for YES on those figures...
    Except that will be a poll of debate viewers.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited August 2014
    @Omnium
    The "unknown" part is what might me vote for "Yes", but unfortunately, they all tend to debate on what they pretend to know, instead of exploring the possibilities.
    Our economy in the UK is not in a good position, we are still far too exposed to the financial sector, and old ideas are just not working.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited August 2014
    Is the debate worth watching?

    I have it recorded.

    Or do I go to bed?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @Omnium
    The "unknown" part is what might me vote for "Yes", but unfortunately, they all tend to debate on what they pretend to know, instead of exploring the possibilities.
    Our economy in the UK is not in a good position, we are still far too exposed to the financial sector, and old ideas are just not working.

    GDP is up.

    You probably vote labour.

    You should stop trolling this respected site Smarmy.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles
    Go to bed, I haven't seen it either, but I can guarantee it will be the same cr*p you have heard before.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is the debate worth watching?

    I have it recorded.

    Or do I go to bed?

    Salmond: disingenuous.
    Darling: boring, slow, reassuring.

    Interesting to note how unsophisticated the electorate is.

    Although we knew that, didn't we.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is the debate worth watching?

    I have it recorded.

    Or do I go to bed?

    A lot of shouting. Salmond much better. Darling pretty nervous, not that effective. Salmond wins. Very few minds changed.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Rod ICM seems to lean Yes in these debate polls, as your figures show they actually had a slight swing to Yes after the first debate, yet Survation showed a clear swing to No
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is the debate worth watching?

    I have it recorded.

    Or do I go to bed?

    A lot of shouting. Salmond much better. Darling pretty nervous, not that effective. Salmond wins. Very few minds changed.

    Good to fire up Salmond's supporters though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    On turnout, of course the oldest voters lean the most to No and they will be most likely to turn out
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is the debate worth watching?

    I have it recorded.

    Or do I go to bed?

    If you like Michael Bay movies, or Jerry Springer, you will like the debate, it was like this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w27meg0YfEU
  • FF42FF42 Posts: 114
    Rod, this poll is of people who watched the debate and were prepared to fill in a survey about it, not a sample of the electorate. This poll attracts unusually large numbers of Yes voting women and No voting men. It's also probably biased to Yes, if we assume ICM vote shares haven't changed since their poll earlier this month
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Those Darling quotes about the NHS are like gold dust to the Tories and they will use the clips of them.

    Yes or no, it is a sad end for Darling's political career.

    Kicked upstairs to the Lords next year, I suppose.
    timmo said:

    Won't make a jot of difference except to the Tories who I believe will have benefitted from Darlings support for their spending on the NHS and a reminder to all how much of a shower the last Labour admin were...
    Good strategy from Cameron....

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is the debate worth watching?

    I have it recorded.

    Or do I go to bed?

    A lot of shouting. Salmond much better. Darling pretty nervous, not that effective. Salmond wins. Very few minds changed.

    Good to fire up Salmond's supporters though.

    They were pretty fired up already. They are less than four weeks from victory.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin
    GDP is a measure of what, wealth?
    GDP tells you nothing about the underlying health of an economy, and for a lot of economic guesswork it is pretty much ignored.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Topping/Southam/Smameron

    Thanks, I'll watch it in the morning.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is the debate worth watching?

    I have it recorded.

    Or do I go to bed?

    If you like Michael Bay movies, or Jerry Springer, you will like the debate, it was like this:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=w27meg0YfEU
    I love Michael Bay movies.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Is there going to be a third debate, or is that all we're getting?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,894
    Smarmeron said:

    @Omnium
    The "unknown" part is what might me vote for "Yes", but unfortunately, they all tend to debate on what they pretend to know, instead of exploring the possibilities.
    Our economy in the UK is not in a good position, we are still far too exposed to the financial sector, and old ideas are just not working.

    Well, I'm not sure that old ideas aren't working. People generally lead better lives than they did in the past in the western world, and much if not most of the developing world. Apart from the huge debts, the UK economy isn't too badly off either - there is a narrower distribution of economic activity than you'd ideally want though I agree.

    Certainly voting yes with a view that the unknown will yield positives is sensible enough. My hunch is that the unknown will actually turn out quite badly for an independent Scotland, so if I had a vote it'd certainly be no - and primarily for that reason.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is there going to be a third debate, or is that all we're getting?

    Don't know if I can take the anxiety!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles
    Can we handle any more?
    Drowning in bullshit is not my choice of ways to shuffle off this mortal coil
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,334
    JBriskin said:

    Why is Socrates allowed on this thread??

    We should have PB Scot border checks.

    Just like an Independent Scotland.

    Haven't you got it the wrong way round? It's the Unionists who keep talking about a modern version of Hadrian's Wall at the north end of EWNI.

    Now a serious point for anyone interested/able to explain:

    On the 'no change during the debate' for the audience - not sure how you get that, I recall seeing about 15 members of the audience changed no to yes and 4 yes to no: unless they are weighting the new noes 3x the new yeses???

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is there going to be a third debate, or is that all we're getting?

    Don't know if I can take the anxiety!
    Wait until September 18/19, that's when we're all going to be anxious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    TSE No, that is it, I suggest BT takes the 1-1 draw with a month to polling day and focuses on getting No voters out, very few now left to change their minds
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,142
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is there going to be a third debate, or is that all we're getting?

    I wouldn't be totally surprised if Bettertogether start making some third debate noises.

  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    team PB Scotland confusing me now.

    Night all.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    Isn't the key point here that the ICM poll showed an almost even split before the debate? That's very different from prevkious polls. Either it's a dramatic narrowing of the gap, or it's a duff sample.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is there going to be a third debate, or is that all we're getting?

    I wouldn't be totally surprised if Bettertogether start making some third debate noises.

    Indeed, I guess there's not much time to schedule one.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,334
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is there going to be a third debate, or is that all we're getting?

    I wouldn't be totally surprised if Bettertogether start making some third debate noises.

    With Mr Cameron for a change? Ooh, that'd be interesting to see (said in all seriousness).

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Omnium
    The "old ideas" cannot possibly work, this is an entirely new age that the original ideas were never expected to cope with.
    At some point, the world has to wake up to the fact that "wealth" is purely based on confidence, and dissapears to the nearest tax haven when confidence deserts the scene.
    (and with our reliance on confidence in the UK, we get the dockside hooker treatment)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    NickPalmer said:

    Isn't the key point here that the ICM poll showed an almost even split before the debate? That's very different from prevkious polls. Either it's a dramatic narrowing of the gap, or it's a duff sample.

    I think this one is a poll of debate-watchers whereas the previous ones were polls of all voters?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    @Omnium
    The "unknown" part is what might me vote for "Yes", but unfortunately, they all tend to debate on what they pretend to know, instead of exploring the possibilities.
    Our economy in the UK is not in a good position, we are still far too exposed to the financial sector, and old ideas are just not working.

    It all comes down on whether scotland can have a diversified balanced economy.
    In my opinion it doesn't (it's population is too small, my lower rate is 23.5 million people for a diversified economy to be possible), it will only just stay afloat until the oil runs out (and it wont be long, oil production is down 70% since its peak in 1998, it has halved in just 7 years) and then it will crash.
    Nauru is a perfect example of what happens when you put all your eggs in one basket.

    It might go the irish way but that is just low corporate tax rates for companies to move their HQ's but not their production and it didn't save Ireland from economic collapse in the end either. Scotland would need to drastically alter its social and economic policies to achieve such a low rate, also it would have to compete with other low coprorate tax havens that already exist so it might not get a big enough share of HQ's to stay afloat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    NP I prefer the first point, has been little I can see to change things from the last sample, but ICM does seem to jump about more than most
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Should have sent Katie Hopkins

    Britain denied key EU role for not picking a woman

    Jean-Claude Juncker expresses frustration that 'despite my repeated requests', most governments, including Britain, have put forward men for the most important positions in Europe

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11055397/Britain-denied-key-EU-role-for-not-picking-a-woman.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    ICM have put up their data tables

    http://www.icmresearch.com/media-centre/polls/salmond-vs-darling-independence-referendum-debate-2
This discussion has been closed.