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The new boundaries make Cooper’s seat much safer – politicalbetting.com
The new boundaries make Cooper’s seat much safer – politicalbetting.com
Worth noting: Yvette Cooper's Pontefract & Castleford seat proposed new boundaries https://t.co/Bir0EucPVX pic.twitter.com/FoiRY9npUB
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If Starmer leads Labour into the next election and loses then Burnham would also be a candidate as he has suggested he would stand as an MP again at the next general election.
Cooper it seems will be saved by the boundary changes as the Conservative + BP vote would no longer be over 50% in her seat as it is now. Albeit the boundary changes would still net the Conservatives extra seats overall
Of course Labour has to be careful about it's remaining working class core vote slipping away in the bulk of the constituency in places like Castleford but the danger for Labour is probably more those voters staying at home and opting for newer protest movements like the Yorkshire Party.
We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.
I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.
The last deep mine went. The coal fired power stations have gone (with a bang!).
Big demographic changes in recent years.
People in seats which went Tory have as differing views as anywhere else.
And the differences between the constituencies themselves are manifold.
I find it very strange how disconnected many MPs are from their seats in this country. In New Zealand MPs are almost invariable from and/or live in their actual constituency.
@HYUFD knows exactly what the Red Wall wants.
Anyway Brexit is not Brownite economics and vice versa.
The Red Wall has changed in no small part because . . . the Red Wall has changed.
Lots of house building has meant the Red Wall has much higher owner-occupier rates than it did in 2010, so no that doesn't mean they still want Brownian economics.
Other bits continue to have falling populations and ageing demographics. The two are not the same.
Indeed, the two co-exist within some constituencies.
Epping is obviously not RedWall, we have had a Conservative MP in Epping since 1970 (Labour last won it in 1966 when Epping constituency included Harlow). Epping Forest is solid Blue
This is another reason why Cooper and some other members of the Blair tribute band worry me. Not a peep on liberties issues ; no, it's only wrong because it's not "tough" enough.
This is a very important part of the background as to why more liberal-minded voters backed the Lib Dems, and even the Tories, in 2010, in the first place. A slightly forgotten but important piece of history about the end of the last Labour government.
Higher taxes yes.
Higher spending? No. Unless you are elderly, there’s less and less money for public services, barring the one-off Covid splurge.
For clarity. I think it is more complex and multi-layered than any sweeping generalisation.
Which is why I dislike the term Red Wall. It obscures rather than simplifies any discussion. An anecdote or factoid about Stoke does not necessarily apply in Blyth. They aren't the same place!
My first question is always "Which bit are you actually talking about?"
And then "Which group within that constituency?"
Cameron actively courted civil libertarians, after the abuses of the Blair/Blunkett/Straw/Brown years.
If the population declines then that means less competition for housing, so owner-ownership rates can go up.
For owner-ownership rates to go up with growing population requires construction to outpace population growth, which has happened in some areas.
The thing that differentiates them all is how close they are to a big city (and the ease of transport links to it.)
They just want to combine that big spending with cultural conservatism and tighter immigration controls, hence they voted for Brexit in 2016 and Boris in 2019
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9039/
Like the virus. Test more, find more...get the blame.
Otherwise, he (or Rishi) is essentially pursuing fiscal retrenchment.
Taxes are at their highest level for a generation, as you well know. So please stop bullshitting.
A tough response would have the court case within 6 months and the people suitably sentenced. Instead it takes 3-4 years and they are released upon sentence due to time served. Meanwhile they've learnt enough new methods to be way more awkward to catch upon release.
Hence Cameron failed to win a majority in 2010 on a liberal platform of social liberalism and low spending and austerity. It needed his promise of an EU referendum in 2015 to get him a majority and Boris won a bigger majority in 2019 on a pro Brexit and more culturally conservative but bigger spending platform
I always book if it is a vaguely popular place.
If voters are struggling to pay rent to their landlord, are struggling to make ends meet etc then they're likely to vote Labour.
If voters own their own home and have security they're more likely to vote Conservative.
London has rampantly growing population but house building hasn't kept up, so as a result its gone backwards despite the growth.
Growth isn't enough if it isn't growth per person.
Ethernet hardline to each and every room in the house.
Result - happiness.
EDIT - Yes, most mesh solutions are garbage.
Boris Johnson is “absolutely not” bored of the idea, his official spokesman says.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1467841482363215885
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/no-christmas-party-downing-street-insists_uk_61adf747e4b0451e551833ca?ncid_tag=tweetlnkukhpmg00000001&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=uk_main
I seldom queue. I either book or just go to a place that doesn’t have queues.
Often the places with the queues are the worst for - you know - actual eating.
As soon as you buggered off the Toon won a football game.
Maybe the Saudis could put you up a bit longer down there? In the opulence you deserve, naturally.
I think that this is what Raab meant although his incoherence and ineptitude means getting meaning from what he said is not easy. The party at Number 10 having happened and been concluded the police are not interested.
Of course, there are good points to be made about the arrogance that such a party demonstrates and the supposed importance of good examples (is there really anyone on the planet that still thinks a politician is a useful role model?). In this particular case, however, they really do seem to have been treated exactly like the rest of us.
However, it implies that Gove’s failed to get any budget attached, and that his proposed devolution (and planning?) changes are controversial.
Yes, it will be mobbed. Also, if you want pre-theatre dinner, it's best to book for the especially.
Try the thecorkandbottle.co.uk at Leicester Square - basement restaurant, great wine list. One the hidden gems.
If Starmer is ditched for being too dull, worthy and uninspiring, I don’t see that bodes too well for our Yvette? Whose mildly exotic French first name is pretty much the only interesting thing about her (other than her Balls).
Queuing for a restaurant would be my idea of hell but I am 100% not the demographic a new, a la mode restaurant is targeting.
The numbers in table form are generally not available...
I won't be doing it this weekend as I dread the current answer..
In the West End, you pretty much have to book for weekends, or “go early”. Don’t expect to find anything free at 8pm.
However, that is far from how it is used. It is, in common parlance, anywhere north of Birmingham the Tories gained in 2019. Saw a BBC report on Rishi in Bury describing it as "classic Red Wall territory."
Both Bury seats have been bellwether marginals for as long as I can remember.
(Running your cables through pipework you can pull fresh cable through is perhaps overkill for a domestic property, but does future proof the installation!)
In the NW, Tyneside and W Yorkshire not much more than you might expect from a riding high Tory Party and becalmed Labour.
But again, this is a gross generalisation and over-simplification.