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The new boundaries make Cooper’s seat much safer – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
The new boundaries make Cooper’s seat much safer – politicalbetting.com

Worth noting: Yvette Cooper's Pontefract & Castleford seat proposed new boundaries https://t.co/Bir0EucPVX pic.twitter.com/FoiRY9npUB

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    If Starmer is replaced before the next general election then Cooper or Reeves are his likeliest replacements.

    If Starmer leads Labour into the next election and loses then Burnham would also be a candidate as he has suggested he would stand as an MP again at the next general election.

    Cooper it seems will be saved by the boundary changes as the Conservative + BP vote would no longer be over 50% in her seat as it is now. Albeit the boundary changes would still net the Conservatives extra seats overall
  • I did say there was zero chance of this seat going Tory in 2024.
  • I don't think she will lose unless the Tories win another 2019 type landslide. The seat has moved somewhat towards the Tories from a low base but Pontefract S is the only ward the Tories have won on a regular basis over the last decade.

    Of course Labour has to be careful about it's remaining working class core vote slipping away in the bulk of the constituency in places like Castleford but the danger for Labour is probably more those voters staying at home and opting for newer protest movements like the Yorkshire Party.

  • Entirely off-topic but what is it about my goddamn wifi that wants to screw with my day? Sky broadband collapses. Reboot the router. Sky broadband comes back up. BT Mesh decides it wants the rest of the day. Eventually after two factory resets the master node comes back to life. Now need to reinstall each repeated one at a time, including having to unplug where they are, connect them directly to the router, wait for faffage and then unplug to put them back with more faffage.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    edited December 2021
    FPT: A post from MaxPB that's spot on and deserves not to be lost in the dregs of the old thread:
    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    The problem with cocaine use is it is now endemic.
    Sure. You could lock all users up. But the country would be covered in jails and sectors of the economy would grind to a halt.

    "sectors of the economy"

    Financial services, law and the media?
    Do you really believe it is only the middle classes?
    You are believing the government spin. They are trying to tee this up as ordinary folk vs the Elite.
    And you are lapping it up.
    Why do I feel that this latest wheeze is going to go down extremely well with Sandy and the other PB authoritarians? Anyone who moralises about illegal drugs while consuming alcohol is, frankly, behaving like an idiot. Most of the supply chain issues with illegal drugs are a direct consequence of their prohibition.
    No druggies, no demand, no supply chain.

    I don't hear about too many mass shootings in the brewing industry.
    That's because it's legal. Prohibition era US has got plenty of examples of violence in the bootlegging industry to protect territory and violence against police etc...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235
    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    Lots of new houses, lots of new commuters living in Pontecarlo.

    The last deep mine went. The coal fired power stations have gone (with a bang!).

    Big demographic changes in recent years.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911

    Entirely off-topic but what is it about my goddamn wifi that wants to screw with my day? Sky broadband collapses. Reboot the router. Sky broadband comes back up. BT Mesh decides it wants the rest of the day. Eventually after two factory resets the master node comes back to life. Now need to reinstall each repeated one at a time, including having to unplug where they are, connect them directly to the router, wait for faffage and then unplug to put them back with more faffage.

    It's thinking of the rest of us :smiley: .
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    Lots of new houses, lots of new commuters living in Pontecarlo.

    The last deep mine went. The coal fired power stations have gone (with a bang!).

    Big demographic changes in recent years.

    Don't ignore Cas Vegas!!
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    Entirely off-topic but what is it about my goddamn wifi that wants to screw with my day? Sky broadband collapses. Reboot the router. Sky broadband comes back up. BT Mesh decides it wants the rest of the day. Eventually after two factory resets the master node comes back to life. Now need to reinstall each repeated one at a time, including having to unplug where they are, connect them directly to the router, wait for faffage and then unplug to put them back with more faffage.

    BT Mesh - why on earth don't you use a proper professional system from Netgear or similar.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    dixiedean said:

    Lots of new houses, lots of new commuters living in Pontecarlo.

    The last deep mine went. The coal fired power stations have gone (with a bang!).

    Big demographic changes in recent years.

    Don't ignore Cas Vegas!!
    The station is seeing quite a bit of money spent on it. New ticket office and passenger facilities (no longer just a bus shelter), and the second platform is being brought back into use.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited December 2021

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    That's because it exists as a political concept, albeit ill-defined, but not as a demographic.
    People in seats which went Tory have as differing views as anywhere else.
    And the differences between the constituencies themselves are manifold.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235
    I was just reading about the North Shrops by-election again, and that the Tory candidate (who seems decent) is disliked by some because he is “from Birmingham”.

    I find it very strange how disconnected many MPs are from their seats in this country. In New Zealand MPs are almost invariable from and/or live in their actual constituency.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235
    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    Says you, who hardly leave your madrassa/underground cave fortress in Epping.

    Anyway Brexit is not Brownite economics and vice versa.
  • HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    No, just no.

    The Red Wall has changed in no small part because . . . the Red Wall has changed.

    Lots of house building has meant the Red Wall has much higher owner-occupier rates than it did in 2010, so no that doesn't mean they still want Brownian economics.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    That's TSE told.

    Die Hard's writer as well!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    Nobody knows the red wall better than @HYUFD
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    No, just no.

    The Red Wall has changed in no small part because . . . the Red Wall has changed.

    Lots of house building has meant the Red Wall has much higher owner-occupier rates than it did in 2010, so no that doesn't mean they still want Brownian economics.
    Some of it has.
    Other bits continue to have falling populations and ageing demographics. The two are not the same.

    Indeed, the two co-exist within some constituencies.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 39,240
    edited December 2021

    Nobody knows the red wall better than @HYUFD

    Central Line is red at least :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    Says you, who hardly leave your madrassa/underground cave fortress in Epping.

    Anyway Brexit is not Brownite economics and vice versa.
    Even Dixidean agrees with me, hence Boris has had to go left on economics and spend more to try and keep them just as he also delivered Brexit. The RedWall is the UK equivalent of the key rustbelt US swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which voted for even Gore and Kerry for example in 2000 and 2004 but for Trump in 2016 and which Biden had to win in 2020 to win back the White House for the Democrats.

    Epping is obviously not RedWall, we have had a Conservative MP in Epping since 1970 (Labour last won it in 1966 when Epping constituency included Harlow). Epping Forest is solid Blue
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    Cooper has got Balls.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    Says you, who hardly leave your madrassa/underground cave fortress in Epping.

    Anyway Brexit is not Brownite economics and vice versa.
    Even Dixidean agrees with me. Epping is o

    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    Says you, who hardly leave your madrassa/underground cave fortress in Epping.

    Anyway Brexit is not Brownite economics and vice versa.
    Even Dixidean agrees with me, hence Boris has had to go left on economics
    So Boris is not a real Tory either? :lol:
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,519
    edited December 2021
    "Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, said: “Too often the government makes grand promises, but then fails to deliver or does the opposite. Drug use is up, serious violence is up, antisocial behaviour is up. More and more offenders are getting away with their crimes as overall prosecutions have plummeted. Any action from the government must be substantial enough to undo the damage they have caused.”

    This is another reason why Cooper and some other members of the Blair tribute band worry me. Not a peep on liberties issues ; no, it's only wrong because it's not "tough" enough.

    This is a very important part of the background as to why more liberal-minded voters backed the Lib Dems, and even the Tories, in 2010, in the first place. A slightly forgotten but important piece of history about the end of the last Labour government.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    Says you, who hardly leave your madrassa/underground cave fortress in Epping.

    Anyway Brexit is not Brownite economics and vice versa.
    Even Dixidean agrees with me. Epping is o

    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    Says you, who hardly leave your madrassa/underground cave fortress in Epping.

    Anyway Brexit is not Brownite economics and vice versa.
    Even Dixidean agrees with me, hence Boris has had to go left on economics
    So Boris is not a real Tory either? :lol:
    Boris isn’t even left on economics.

    Higher taxes yes.
    Higher spending? No. Unless you are elderly, there’s less and less money for public services, barring the one-off Covid splurge.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited December 2021
    He also knows what I think too.
    For clarity. I think it is more complex and multi-layered than any sweeping generalisation.
    Which is why I dislike the term Red Wall. It obscures rather than simplifies any discussion. An anecdote or factoid about Stoke does not necessarily apply in Blyth. They aren't the same place!
    My first question is always "Which bit are you actually talking about?"
    And then "Which group within that constituency?"
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235

    "Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, said: “Too often the government makes grand promises, but then fails to deliver or does the opposite. Drug use is up, serious violence is up, antisocial behaviour is up. More and more offenders are getting away with their crimes as overall prosecutions have plummeted. Any action from the government must be substantial enough to undo the damage they have caused.”

    This is another reason why Cooper and some other members of the Blair tribute band members worry me. Not a peep on liberties issues ; no, it's only wrong because it's not "tough" enough.

    This is a very important part of the background as to why more liberal-minded voters backed the Lib Dems, and even the Tories, in 2010, in the first place. This is now a slightly forgotten but important piece of history.

    Yes, thanks for reminding us.
    Cameron actively courted civil libertarians, after the abuses of the Blair/Blunkett/Straw/Brown years.
  • dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    No, just no.

    The Red Wall has changed in no small part because . . . the Red Wall has changed.

    Lots of house building has meant the Red Wall has much higher owner-occupier rates than it did in 2010, so no that doesn't mean they still want Brownian economics.
    Some of it has.
    Other bits continue to have falling populations and ageing demographics. The two are not the same.

    Indeed, the two co-exist within some constituencies.
    The two are not contradictory.

    If the population declines then that means less competition for housing, so owner-ownership rates can go up.

    For owner-ownership rates to go up with growing population requires construction to outpace population growth, which has happened in some areas.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021

    "Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, said: “Too often the government makes grand promises, but then fails to deliver or does the opposite. Drug use is up, serious violence is up, antisocial behaviour is up. More and more offenders are getting away with their crimes as overall prosecutions have plummeted. Any action from the government must be substantial enough to undo the damage they have caused.”

    This is another reason why Cooper and some other members of the Blair tribute band worry me. Not a peep on liberties issues ; no, it's only wrong because it's not "tough" enough.

    This is a very important part of the background as to why more liberal-minded voters backed the Lib Dems, and even the Tories, in 2010, in the first place. This is now a slightly forgotten but important piece of history about the end of the last Labour government.

    Up on 2018. Significantly down on 2010 when Yvette was last in Government. Coalition seems to have done a good job as on so many things, and population is up over the period.



  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,298
    dixiedean said:

    He also knows what I think too.
    For clarity. I think it is more complex and multi-layered than any sweeping generalisation.
    Which is why I dislike the term Red Wall. It obscures rather than simplifies any discussion. An anecdote or factoid about Stoke does not necessarily apply in Blyth. They aren't the same place!
    My first question is always "Which bit are you actually talking about?"
    And then "Which group within that constituency?"

    Well, quite. The issues in Copeland are very different to those in Hartlepool.
  • dixiedean said:

    He also knows what I think too.
    For clarity. I think it is more complex and multi-layered than any sweeping generalisation.
    Which is why I dislike the term Red Wall. It obscures rather than simplifies any discussion. An anecdote or factoid about Stoke does not necessarily apply in Blyth. They aren't the same place!
    My first question is always "Which bit are you actually talking about?"
    And then "Which group within that constituency?"

    One of the demographics guy I know (who used to work for an opinion pollster) reckons there are 5 types of Red Wall seats.

    The thing that differentiates them all is how close they are to a big city (and the ease of transport links to it.)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    No, just no.

    The Red Wall has changed in no small part because . . . the Red Wall has changed.

    Lots of house building has meant the Red Wall has much higher owner-occupier rates than it did in 2010, so no that doesn't mean they still want Brownian economics.
    Some of it has.
    Other bits continue to have falling populations and ageing demographics. The two are not the same.

    Indeed, the two co-exist within some constituencies.
    The two are not contradictory.

    If the population declines then that means less competition for housing, so owner-ownership rates can go up.

    For owner-ownership rates to go up with growing population requires construction to outpace population growth, which has happened in some areas.
    You are viewing this through the prism of free market economics. I was referring to how an area "feels" to its residents.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    3 nights in Essex/London has made me appreciate the North East even more. The place really is the best place to live in the UK don’t @ me.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    Ps is queuing for restaurants normal in London or is that a covid thing?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    No, just no.

    The Red Wall has changed in no small part because . . . the Red Wall has changed.

    Lots of house building has meant the Red Wall has much higher owner-occupier rates than it did in 2010, so no that doesn't mean they still want Brownian economics.
    They may not want high taxes and Corbyn socialism and they have some property assets, hence they voted Tory in 2019 but they still want Brown levels of spending on the NHS and public service, hence Boris also had to promise to spend a lot to win them.

    They just want to combine that big spending with cultural conservatism and tighter immigration controls, hence they voted for Brexit in 2016 and Boris in 2019
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    Says you, who hardly leave your madrassa/underground cave fortress in Epping.

    Anyway Brexit is not Brownite economics and vice versa.
    Even Dixidean agrees with me. Epping is o

    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    Says you, who hardly leave your madrassa/underground cave fortress in Epping.

    Anyway Brexit is not Brownite economics and vice versa.
    Even Dixidean agrees with me, hence Boris has had to go left on economics
    So Boris is not a real Tory either? :lol:
    Boris isn’t even left on economics.

    Higher taxes yes.
    Higher spending? No. Unless you are elderly, there’s less and less money for public services, barring the one-off Covid splurge.
    Boris is spending far more than Cameron did and he has not raised income tax or inheritance tax either
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858

    "Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, said: “Too often the government makes grand promises, but then fails to deliver or does the opposite. Drug use is up, serious violence is up, antisocial behaviour is up. More and more offenders are getting away with their crimes as overall prosecutions have plummeted. Any action from the government must be substantial enough to undo the damage they have caused.”

    This is another reason why Cooper and some other members of the Blair tribute band worry me. Not a peep on liberties issues ; no, it's only wrong because it's not "tough" enough.

    This is a very important part of the background as to why more liberal-minded voters backed the Lib Dems, and even the Tories, in 2010, in the first place. A slightly forgotten but important piece of history about the end of the last Labour government.

    People who live in communities blighted by crime and criminals want a tough response. If that doesn't sit well with some of the dinner party set, then so be it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    dixiedean said:

    He also knows what I think too.
    For clarity. I think it is more complex and multi-layered than any sweeping generalisation.
    Which is why I dislike the term Red Wall. It obscures rather than simplifies any discussion. An anecdote or factoid about Stoke does not necessarily apply in Blyth. They aren't the same place!
    My first question is always "Which bit are you actually talking about?"
    And then "Which group within that constituency?"

    One of the demographics guy I know (who used to work for an opinion pollster) reckons there are 5 types of Red Wall seats.

    The thing that differentiates them all is how close they are to a big city (and the ease of transport links to it.)
    I'd be interested in seeing his theory.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    No, just no.

    The Red Wall has changed in no small part because . . . the Red Wall has changed.

    Lots of house building has meant the Red Wall has much higher owner-occupier rates than it did in 2010, so no that doesn't mean they still want Brownian economics.
    They may not want high taxes and Corbyn socialism and they have some property assets, hence they voted Tory in 2019 but they still want Brown levels of spending on the NHS and public service, hence Boris also had to promise to spend a lot to win them.

    They just want to combine that big spending with cultural conservatism and tighter immigration controls, hence they voted for Brexit in 2016 and Boris in 2019
    The last time we spoke about this you announced that “they” didn’t vote for levelling up - just for Brexit. Which is it?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    In fact a vote for Brexit was a vote for levelling up in many parts of the North. They are one and the same.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021
    MattW said:

    "Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, said: “Too often the government makes grand promises, but then fails to deliver or does the opposite. Drug use is up, serious violence is up, antisocial behaviour is up. More and more offenders are getting away with their crimes as overall prosecutions have plummeted. Any action from the government must be substantial enough to undo the damage they have caused.”

    This is another reason why Cooper and some other members of the Blair tribute band worry me. Not a peep on liberties issues ; no, it's only wrong because it's not "tough" enough.

    This is a very important part of the background as to why more liberal-minded voters backed the Lib Dems, and even the Tories, in 2010, in the first place. This is now a slightly forgotten but important piece of history about the end of the last Labour government.

    Up on 2018. Significantly down on 2010 when Yvette was last in Government. Coalition seems to have done a good job as on so many things, and population is up over the period.



    But deaths are up over the period.



    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9039/



  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,847
    MattW said:

    "Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, said: “Too often the government makes grand promises, but then fails to deliver or does the opposite. Drug use is up, serious violence is up, antisocial behaviour is up. More and more offenders are getting away with their crimes as overall prosecutions have plummeted. Any action from the government must be substantial enough to undo the damage they have caused.”

    This is another reason why Cooper and some other members of the Blair tribute band worry me. Not a peep on liberties issues ; no, it's only wrong because it's not "tough" enough.

    This is a very important part of the background as to why more liberal-minded voters backed the Lib Dems, and even the Tories, in 2010, in the first place. This is now a slightly forgotten but important piece of history about the end of the last Labour government.

    Up on 2018. Significantly down on 2010 when Yvette was last in Government.



    If the government decides to crack down on a particular crime then presumably recorded instances will go up?

    Like the virus. Test more, find more...get the blame.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    Says you, who hardly leave your madrassa/underground cave fortress in Epping.

    Anyway Brexit is not Brownite economics and vice versa.
    Even Dixidean agrees with me. Epping is o

    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    Says you, who hardly leave your madrassa/underground cave fortress in Epping.

    Anyway Brexit is not Brownite economics and vice versa.
    Even Dixidean agrees with me, hence Boris has had to go left on economics
    So Boris is not a real Tory either? :lol:
    Boris isn’t even left on economics.

    Higher taxes yes.
    Higher spending? No. Unless you are elderly, there’s less and less money for public services, barring the one-off Covid splurge.
    Boris is spending far more than Cameron did and he has not raised income tax or inheritance tax either
    He is spending more because of Covid.
    Otherwise, he (or Rishi) is essentially pursuing fiscal retrenchment.

    Taxes are at their highest level for a generation, as you well know. So please stop bullshitting.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    "Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, said: “Too often the government makes grand promises, but then fails to deliver or does the opposite. Drug use is up, serious violence is up, antisocial behaviour is up. More and more offenders are getting away with their crimes as overall prosecutions have plummeted. Any action from the government must be substantial enough to undo the damage they have caused.”

    This is another reason why Cooper and some other members of the Blair tribute band worry me. Not a peep on liberties issues ; no, it's only wrong because it's not "tough" enough.

    This is a very important part of the background as to why more liberal-minded voters backed the Lib Dems, and even the Tories, in 2010, in the first place. A slightly forgotten but important piece of history about the end of the last Labour government.

    People who live in communities blighted by crime and criminals want a tough response. If that doesn't sit well with some of the dinner party set, then so be it.
    It's not a tough response - it's a f***ing stupid one.

    A tough response would have the court case within 6 months and the people suitably sentenced. Instead it takes 3-4 years and they are released upon sentence due to time served. Meanwhile they've learnt enough new methods to be way more awkward to catch upon release.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235

    Ps is queuing for restaurants normal in London or is that a covid thing?

    No. It’s not even a thing. Unless you are retarded.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    "Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, said: “Too often the government makes grand promises, but then fails to deliver or does the opposite. Drug use is up, serious violence is up, antisocial behaviour is up. More and more offenders are getting away with their crimes as overall prosecutions have plummeted. Any action from the government must be substantial enough to undo the damage they have caused.”

    This is another reason why Cooper and some other members of the Blair tribute band members worry me. Not a peep on liberties issues ; no, it's only wrong because it's not "tough" enough.

    This is a very important part of the background as to why more liberal-minded voters backed the Lib Dems, and even the Tories, in 2010, in the first place. This is now a slightly forgotten but important piece of history.

    Yes, thanks for reminding us.
    Cameron actively courted civil libertarians, after the abuses of the Blair/Blunkett/Straw/Brown years.
    Being a libertarian rarely wins majorities in the UK.

    Hence Cameron failed to win a majority in 2010 on a liberal platform of social liberalism and low spending and austerity. It needed his promise of an EU referendum in 2015 to get him a majority and Boris won a bigger majority in 2019 on a pro Brexit and more culturally conservative but bigger spending platform
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,519
    edited December 2021

    "Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, said: “Too often the government makes grand promises, but then fails to deliver or does the opposite. Drug use is up, serious violence is up, antisocial behaviour is up. More and more offenders are getting away with their crimes as overall prosecutions have plummeted. Any action from the government must be substantial enough to undo the damage they have caused.”

    This is another reason why Cooper and some other members of the Blair tribute band worry me. Not a peep on liberties issues ; no, it's only wrong because it's not "tough" enough.

    This is a very important part of the background as to why more liberal-minded voters backed the Lib Dems, and even the Tories, in 2010, in the first place. A slightly forgotten but important piece of history about the end of the last Labour government.

    People who live in communities blighted by crime and criminals want a tough response. If that doesn't sit well with some of the dinner party set, then so be it.
    This is rhetorical nonsense. The current policies are failing people on estates much more than they're failing the dinner party set, and some of the measures announced today will fail them even more.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    Ps is queuing for restaurants normal in London or is that a covid thing?

    Depends on the restaurant and where it is. If it is good and it's a Thursday/Friday/Saturday, perfectly possible.

    I always book if it is a vaguely popular place.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    In fact a vote for Brexit was a vote for levelling up in many parts of the North. They are one and the same.

    Or in the case of the Geordies who voted so Nissan would close "levelling down".
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    The Red Wall want Brownite economics with Boris' Brexit and cultural policies. After all most seats in the RedWall voted for Brown over Cameron in 2010 but for Boris over Corbyn in 2019
    No, just no.

    The Red Wall has changed in no small part because . . . the Red Wall has changed.

    Lots of house building has meant the Red Wall has much higher owner-occupier rates than it did in 2010, so no that doesn't mean they still want Brownian economics.
    Some of it has.
    Other bits continue to have falling populations and ageing demographics. The two are not the same.

    Indeed, the two co-exist within some constituencies.
    The two are not contradictory.

    If the population declines then that means less competition for housing, so owner-ownership rates can go up.

    For owner-ownership rates to go up with growing population requires construction to outpace population growth, which has happened in some areas.
    You are viewing this through the prism of free market economics. I was referring to how an area "feels" to its residents.
    The most important thing is how it "feels" to each voter.

    If voters are struggling to pay rent to their landlord, are struggling to make ends meet etc then they're likely to vote Labour.

    If voters own their own home and have security they're more likely to vote Conservative.

    London has rampantly growing population but house building hasn't kept up, so as a result its gone backwards despite the growth.

    Growth isn't enough if it isn't growth per person.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673

    Ps is queuing for restaurants normal in London or is that a covid thing?

    No. It’s not even a thing. Unless you are retarded.
    In the west end there was no restaurants without queues on Sat Sun all day pretty much. Even Mcdonalds.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    Ps is queuing for restaurants normal in London or is that a covid thing?

    No. It’s not even a thing. Unless you are retarded.
    Not usually - as people book. Although I've not booked anywhere for next weekend as we are out both evenings (Magic Circle Friday, RSC Saturday) so just need to grab a meal before the shows.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    edited December 2021
    eek said:

    Entirely off-topic but what is it about my goddamn wifi that wants to screw with my day? Sky broadband collapses. Reboot the router. Sky broadband comes back up. BT Mesh decides it wants the rest of the day. Eventually after two factory resets the master node comes back to life. Now need to reinstall each repeated one at a time, including having to unplug where they are, connect them directly to the router, wait for faffage and then unplug to put them back with more faffage.

    BT Mesh - why on earth don't you use a proper professional system from Netgear or similar.
    Patch panel on the wall where the broadband comes in.

    Ethernet hardline to each and every room in the house.

    Result - happiness.

    EDIT - Yes, most mesh solutions are garbage.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607

    In fact a vote for Brexit was a vote for levelling up in many parts of the North. They are one and the same.

    NEW: No 10 confirms the Government’s flagship ‘levelling up’ white paper has been delayed again to January 2022.

    Boris Johnson is “absolutely not” bored of the idea, his official spokesman says.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1467841482363215885
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349

    dixiedean said:

    He also knows what I think too.
    For clarity. I think it is more complex and multi-layered than any sweeping generalisation.
    Which is why I dislike the term Red Wall. It obscures rather than simplifies any discussion. An anecdote or factoid about Stoke does not necessarily apply in Blyth. They aren't the same place!
    My first question is always "Which bit are you actually talking about?"
    And then "Which group within that constituency?"

    One of the demographics guy I know (who used to work for an opinion pollster) reckons there are 5 types of Red Wall seats.

    The thing that differentiates them all is how close they are to a big city (and the ease of transport links to it.)
    I think there's probably some truth in that categorisation. Car ownership is (I think) one of the biggest correlating factors to Tory vote these days.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    In fact a vote for Brexit was a vote for levelling up in many parts of the North. They are one and the same.

    Yep the requirement for Boris to continue winning is to deliver what has been promised. Without that the Red Wall seats will be a Redcar and return to their default vote setting...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235
    edited December 2021

    Ps is queuing for restaurants normal in London or is that a covid thing?

    No. It’s not even a thing. Unless you are retarded.
    In the west end there was no restaurants without queues on Sat Sun all day pretty much. Even Mcdonalds.
    Really?

    I seldom queue. I either book or just go to a place that doesn’t have queues.

    Often the places with the queues are the worst for - you know - actual eating.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    3 nights in Essex/London has made me appreciate the North East even more. The place really is the best place to live in the UK don’t @ me.

    However.
    As soon as you buggered off the Toon won a football game.
    Maybe the Saudis could put you up a bit longer down there? In the opulence you deserve, naturally.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    He also knows what I think too.
    For clarity. I think it is more complex and multi-layered than any sweeping generalisation.
    Which is why I dislike the term Red Wall. It obscures rather than simplifies any discussion. An anecdote or factoid about Stoke does not necessarily apply in Blyth. They aren't the same place!
    My first question is always "Which bit are you actually talking about?"
    And then "Which group within that constituency?"

    One of the demographics guy I know (who used to work for an opinion pollster) reckons there are 5 types of Red Wall seats.

    The thing that differentiates them all is how close they are to a big city (and the ease of transport links to it.)
    I'd be interested in seeing his theory.
    I'll try and dig out a précis from him.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    dixiedean said:

    He also knows what I think too.
    For clarity. I think it is more complex and multi-layered than any sweeping generalisation.
    Which is why I dislike the term Red Wall. It obscures rather than simplifies any discussion. An anecdote or factoid about Stoke does not necessarily apply in Blyth. They aren't the same place!
    My first question is always "Which bit are you actually talking about?"
    And then "Which group within that constituency?"

    One of the demographics guy I know (who used to work for an opinion pollster) reckons there are 5 types of Red Wall seats.

    The thing that differentiates them all is how close they are to a big city (and the ease of transport links to it.)
    Any chance of more details?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    I did not have a chance to respond to the last thread or the blundering confusion that is Dominic Raab. From what I understand several parties, BBQs, mini raves etc were broken up by the police during lockdown. Fixed penalties were issued (goodness knows if anyone paid them) and there were some prosecutions. But I have not come across any case where the police have thought it necessary to investigate whether any such event took place after the event. We saw a similar approach by the police in respect of Dominic Cummings' bizarre eye test. Had he been stopped during it he may well have been charged. As he wasn't the police were just not interested.

    I think that this is what Raab meant although his incoherence and ineptitude means getting meaning from what he said is not easy. The party at Number 10 having happened and been concluded the police are not interested.

    Of course, there are good points to be made about the arrogance that such a party demonstrates and the supposed importance of good examples (is there really anyone on the planet that still thinks a politician is a useful role model?). In this particular case, however, they really do seem to have been treated exactly like the rest of us.
  • eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    He also knows what I think too.
    For clarity. I think it is more complex and multi-layered than any sweeping generalisation.
    Which is why I dislike the term Red Wall. It obscures rather than simplifies any discussion. An anecdote or factoid about Stoke does not necessarily apply in Blyth. They aren't the same place!
    My first question is always "Which bit are you actually talking about?"
    And then "Which group within that constituency?"

    One of the demographics guy I know (who used to work for an opinion pollster) reckons there are 5 types of Red Wall seats.

    The thing that differentiates them all is how close they are to a big city (and the ease of transport links to it.)
    Any chance of more details?
    I'm emailing him now.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114
    dixiedean said:

    In fact a vote for Brexit was a vote for levelling up in many parts of the North. They are one and the same.

    Or in the case of the Geordies who voted so Nissan would close "levelling down".
    Ironic given many people with NE postcodes work for Nissan or in its supply base.
  • Scott_xP said:
    There was NOT a party, and Bill Clinton did NOT have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235
    Scott_xP said:

    In fact a vote for Brexit was a vote for levelling up in many parts of the North. They are one and the same.

    NEW: No 10 confirms the Government’s flagship ‘levelling up’ white paper has been delayed again to January 2022.

    Boris Johnson is “absolutely not” bored of the idea, his official spokesman says.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1467841482363215885
    Not the first paper to be delayed.

    However, it implies that Gove’s failed to get any budget attached, and that his proposed devolution (and planning?) changes are controversial.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    He also knows what I think too.
    For clarity. I think it is more complex and multi-layered than any sweeping generalisation.
    Which is why I dislike the term Red Wall. It obscures rather than simplifies any discussion. An anecdote or factoid about Stoke does not necessarily apply in Blyth. They aren't the same place!
    My first question is always "Which bit are you actually talking about?"
    And then "Which group within that constituency?"

    One of the demographics guy I know (who used to work for an opinion pollster) reckons there are 5 types of Red Wall seats.

    The thing that differentiates them all is how close they are to a big city (and the ease of transport links to it.)
    I'd be interested in seeing his theory.
    I'll try and dig out a précis from him.
    Cheers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    eek said:

    Ps is queuing for restaurants normal in London or is that a covid thing?

    No. It’s not even a thing. Unless you are retarded.
    Not usually - as people book. Although I've not booked anywhere for next weekend as we are out both evenings (Magic Circle Friday, RSC Saturday) so just need to grab a meal before the shows.
    Ah - West End.

    Yes, it will be mobbed. Also, if you want pre-theatre dinner, it's best to book for the especially.

    Try the thecorkandbottle.co.uk at Leicester Square - basement restaurant, great wine list. One the hidden gems.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    edited December 2021

    On topic-ish.

    We now fetishise the “red wall” and assume we know what they want.

    I doubt neither Tory nor Labour have a clue.

    <.pedant mode.> surely you meant “either”?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993
    Wondering about the definition of the RedWall. Perhaps a useful way of looking at is politically is a series of constituencies where there used to be a disconnect between the underlying demographics and the voting record, due to historical loyalties and traditions. But which now votes much more in line with similar areas in the rest of the country.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    In fact a vote for Brexit was a vote for levelling up in many parts of the North. They are one and the same.

    Or in the case of the Geordies who voted so Nissan would close "levelling down".
    Ironic given many people with NE postcodes work for Nissan or in its supply base.
    Not sure if it was any more than anecdotal. Or a small handful.
  • Having seen these, can @Malmesbury do map versions of his daily tables? Very much easier to find home!


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    edited December 2021

    Ps is queuing for restaurants normal in London or is that a covid thing?

    No. It’s not even a thing. Unless you are retarded.
    In the west end there was no restaurants without queues on Sat Sun all day pretty much. Even Mcdonalds.
    Really?

    I seldom queue. I either book or just go to a place that doesn’t have queues.

    Often the places with the queues are the worst for - you know - actual eating.
    generally the places without queues in the West End are those for which, if you turn up on weekend, they're sorry but have no tables all night. Hence no queue....
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993

    eek said:

    Ps is queuing for restaurants normal in London or is that a covid thing?

    No. It’s not even a thing. Unless you are retarded.
    Not usually - as people book. Although I've not booked anywhere for next weekend as we are out both evenings (Magic Circle Friday, RSC Saturday) so just need to grab a meal before the shows.
    Ah - West End.

    Yes, it will be mobbed. Also, if you want pre-theatre dinner, it's best to book for the especially.

    Try the thecorkandbottle.co.uk at Leicester Square - basement restaurant, great wine list. One the hidden gems.
    As a London resident I kind of forget the West End exists, except as a work destination. "Town" for me for a meal out is Borough or Shoreditch, because that's where the trains go.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114
    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    In fact a vote for Brexit was a vote for levelling up in many parts of the North. They are one and the same.

    Or in the case of the Geordies who voted so Nissan would close "levelling down".
    Ironic given many people with NE postcodes work for Nissan or in its supply base.
    Not sure if it was any more than anecdotal. Or a small handful.
    It really wouldn’t surprise me at all.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    TimS said:

    Wondering about the definition of the RedWall. Perhaps a useful way of looking at is politically is a series of constituencies where there used to be a disconnect between the underlying demographics and the voting record, due to historical loyalties and traditions. But which now votes much more in line with similar areas in the rest of the country.

    In some senses but not others. There’s little in common between Surrey commuter villages and the vast swathes of Cramlington or Blyth Persimmon housing estates.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    I also has the unfortunate experience of walking up the Covent Garden tube station stairs. My god.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    A commonly cited theory of leadership is that each time a new leader is selected, members seek someone to compensate (or over-compensate) for the weaknesses of the previous one.

    If Starmer is ditched for being too dull, worthy and uninspiring, I don’t see that bodes too well for our Yvette? Whose mildly exotic French first name is pretty much the only interesting thing about her (other than her Balls).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021
    Queuing was a thing to show how hot the restaurant was. Or was supposed to be. Ask Giles Coren. No idea now after Covid.

    Queuing for a restaurant would be my idea of hell but I am 100% not the demographic a new, a la mode restaurant is targeting.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    Having seen these, can @Malmesbury do map versions of his daily tables? Very much easier to find home!


    There are plenty of maps - the dashboard has them.

    The numbers in table form are generally not available...
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    I also has the unfortunate experience of walking up the Covent Garden tube station stairs. My god.

    That's my test for how fit I am.

    I won't be doing it this weekend as I dread the current answer..
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235

    Ps is queuing for restaurants normal in London or is that a covid thing?

    No. It’s not even a thing. Unless you are retarded.
    In the west end there was no restaurants without queues on Sat Sun all day pretty much. Even Mcdonalds.
    Really?

    I seldom queue. I either book or just go to a place that doesn’t have queues.

    Often the places with the queues are the worst for - you know - actual eating.
    generally the places without queues in the West End are those for which, if you turn up on weekend, they're sorry but have no tables all night. Hence no queue....
    Well I admit I misunderstood the original question.

    In the West End, you pretty much have to book for weekends, or “go early”. Don’t expect to find anything free at 8pm.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    TOPPING said:

    Queuing was a thing to show how hot the restaurant was. Or was supposed to be. Ask Giles Coren. No idea now after Covid.

    Queuing for a restaurant would be my idea of hell but I am 100% not the demographic a new, a la mode restaurant is targeting.

    I always book ahead.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    Ps is queuing for restaurants normal in London or is that a covid thing?

    No. It’s not even a thing. Unless you are retarded.
    In the west end there was no restaurants without queues on Sat Sun all day pretty much. Even Mcdonalds.
    Really?

    I seldom queue. I either book or just go to a place that doesn’t have queues.

    Often the places with the queues are the worst for - you know - actual eating.
    generally the places without queues in the West End are those for which, if you turn up on weekend, they're sorry but have no tables all night. Hence no queue....
    Well I admit I misunderstood the original question.

    In the West End, you pretty much have to book for weekends, or “go early”. Don’t expect to find anything free at 8pm.
    I've got into the habit of booking everything in advance. Even if someone says lets try X 20 minutes away. There's always a phone number.....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    TimS said:

    Wondering about the definition of the RedWall. Perhaps a useful way of looking at is politically is a series of constituencies where there used to be a disconnect between the underlying demographics and the voting record, due to historical loyalties and traditions. But which now votes much more in line with similar areas in the rest of the country.

    That would be.

    However, that is far from how it is used. It is, in common parlance, anywhere north of Birmingham the Tories gained in 2019. Saw a BBC report on Rishi in Bury describing it as "classic Red Wall territory."
    Both Bury seats have been bellwether marginals for as long as I can remember.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    TimS said:

    Wondering about the definition of the RedWall. Perhaps a useful way of looking at is politically is a series of constituencies where there used to be a disconnect between the underlying demographics and the voting record, due to historical loyalties and traditions. But which now votes much more in line with similar areas in the rest of the country.

    I agree. The most important thing about the red wall is that they were constituencies that Labour could and did take for granted for a long time. Now they can't. The result is that what they actually want is now a relevant question. Which is a good thing.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Scott_xP said:

    In fact a vote for Brexit was a vote for levelling up in many parts of the North. They are one and the same.

    NEW: No 10 confirms the Government’s flagship ‘levelling up’ white paper has been delayed again to January 2022.

    Boris Johnson is “absolutely not” bored of the idea, his official spokesman says.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1467841482363215885
    January 2022??? That seems so far away!
  • TimS said:

    Wondering about the definition of the RedWall. Perhaps a useful way of looking at is politically is a series of constituencies where there used to be a disconnect between the underlying demographics and the voting record, due to historical loyalties and traditions. But which now votes much more in line with similar areas in the rest of the country.

    In some senses but not others. There’s little in common between Surrey commuter villages and the vast swathes of Cramlington or Blyth Persimmon housing estates.
    I could be proven wrong, but I think that by the time the next election comes the so-called Red Wall seats will revert to type. Why were they previously Labour? Because their demographic meant that the average voter more identified with voting Labour. Did many actually swap from Labour to Tory, and if they did do they now identify as "Tories", the latter which I find very hard to believe? I imagine that in a lot of these seats it was because trad Labour types just didn't vote. A few switched to Tory and a few to other parties. Mike's data seemed to infer what I have always believed, which is that many of these traditionalists were put off by Corbyn, rather than (as many Tories want to believe) voting to "Get Brexit Done". Either way, both these issues will no longer be there at the next election. It will be interesting to see what happens. Tories who rely on their own wishful group think might get a shock.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021

    TOPPING said:

    Queuing was a thing to show how hot the restaurant was. Or was supposed to be. Ask Giles Coren. No idea now after Covid.

    Queuing for a restaurant would be my idea of hell but I am 100% not the demographic a new, a la mode restaurant is targeting.

    I always book ahead.
    For these places queuing is a feature not a bug and hence they don't take bookings.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 661
    edited December 2021

    Entirely off-topic but what is it about my goddamn wifi that wants to screw with my day? Sky broadband collapses. Reboot the router. Sky broadband comes back up. BT Mesh decides it wants the rest of the day. Eventually after two factory resets the master node comes back to life. Now need to reinstall each repeated one at a time, including having to unplug where they are, connect them directly to the router, wait for faffage and then unplug to put them back with more faffage.

    I heartily recommend laying ethernet cable if you get the opportunity. You get none of these wifi issues with a proper bit of twisted pair copper between you & your router.

    (Running your cables through pipework you can pull fresh cable through is perhaps overkill for a domestic property, but does future proof the installation!)
  • dixiedean said:

    TimS said:

    Wondering about the definition of the RedWall. Perhaps a useful way of looking at is politically is a series of constituencies where there used to be a disconnect between the underlying demographics and the voting record, due to historical loyalties and traditions. But which now votes much more in line with similar areas in the rest of the country.

    That would be.

    However, that is far from how it is used. It is, in common parlance, anywhere north of Birmingham the Tories gained in 2019. Saw a BBC report on Rishi in Bury describing it as "classic Red Wall territory."
    Both Bury seats have been bellwether marginals for as long as I can remember.
    We saw it in May when people started talking about the Blue Wall, some people just couldn't get their heads around the fact that some places with Tory MPs/Councils actually voted Remain.
  • DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    Wondering about the definition of the RedWall. Perhaps a useful way of looking at is politically is a series of constituencies where there used to be a disconnect between the underlying demographics and the voting record, due to historical loyalties and traditions. But which now votes much more in line with similar areas in the rest of the country.

    I agree. The most important thing about the red wall is that they were constituencies that Labour could and did take for granted for a long time. Now they can't. The result is that what they actually want is now a relevant question. Which is a good thing.
    It is a good thing, and perhaps people who were traditionally Tory in Tory safe seats like myself might want to ponder on the new reality that is that if a government thinks it can't rely on an area, it might well invest that much more in that area
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,519
    edited December 2021
    IanB2 said:

    A commonly cited theory of leadership is that each time a new leader is selected, members seek someone to compensate (or over-compensate) for the weaknesses of the previous one.

    If Starmer is ditched for being too dull, worthy and uninspiring, I don’t see that bodes too well for our Yvette? Whose mildly exotic French first name is pretty much the only interesting thing about her (other than her Balls).

    Judging by Cooper's predictable comments today, I think either Nandy or Rayner would be better, personally. They're both able to combine toughness with emotional intelligence.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    TimS said:

    Wondering about the definition of the RedWall. Perhaps a useful way of looking at is politically is a series of constituencies where there used to be a disconnect between the underlying demographics and the voting record, due to historical loyalties and traditions. But which now votes much more in line with similar areas in the rest of the country.

    In some senses but not others. There’s little in common between Surrey commuter villages and the vast swathes of Cramlington or Blyth Persimmon housing estates.
    I could be proven wrong, but I think that by the time the next election comes the so-called Red Wall seats will revert to type. Why were they previously Labour? Because their demographic meant that the average voter more identified with voting Labour. Did many actually swap from Labour to Tory, and if they did do they now identify as "Tories", the latter which I find very hard to believe? I imagine that in a lot of these seats it was because trad Labour types just didn't vote. A few switched to Tory and a few to other parties. Mike's data seemed to infer what I have always believed, which is that many of these traditionalists were put off by Corbyn, rather than (as many Tories want to believe) voting to "Get Brexit Done". Either way, both these issues will no longer be there at the next election. It will be interesting to see what happens. Tories who rely on their own wishful group think might get a shock.
    Again. It varies. The evidence from Council and other elections in the North and West Midlands S Yorkshire and Teesside is that there has been a decisive shift away from Labour.
    In the NW, Tyneside and W Yorkshire not much more than you might expect from a riding high Tory Party and becalmed Labour.
    But again, this is a gross generalisation and over-simplification.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    Wondering about the definition of the RedWall. Perhaps a useful way of looking at is politically is a series of constituencies where there used to be a disconnect between the underlying demographics and the voting record, due to historical loyalties and traditions. But which now votes much more in line with similar areas in the rest of the country.

    I agree. The most important thing about the red wall is that they were constituencies that Labour could and did take for granted for a long time. Now they can't. The result is that what they actually want is now a relevant question. Which is a good thing.
    It is a good thing, and perhaps people who were traditionally Tory in Tory safe seats like myself might want to ponder on the new reality that is that if a government thinks it can't rely on an area, it might well invest that much more in that area
    Absolutely. Works both ways. Running a country solely in the interests of the Home Counties or North London were never great alternatives. If Labour had more to gain or lose in the south outside London they might be a bit more interested in their economy and force the Tories to be likewise.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911

    MattW said:

    "Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, said: “Too often the government makes grand promises, but then fails to deliver or does the opposite. Drug use is up, serious violence is up, antisocial behaviour is up. More and more offenders are getting away with their crimes as overall prosecutions have plummeted. Any action from the government must be substantial enough to undo the damage they have caused.”

    This is another reason why Cooper and some other members of the Blair tribute band worry me. Not a peep on liberties issues ; no, it's only wrong because it's not "tough" enough.

    This is a very important part of the background as to why more liberal-minded voters backed the Lib Dems, and even the Tories, in 2010, in the first place. This is now a slightly forgotten but important piece of history about the end of the last Labour government.

    Up on 2018. Significantly down on 2010 when Yvette was last in Government.



    If the government decides to crack down on a particular crime then presumably recorded instances will go up?

    Like the virus. Test more, find more...get the blame.
    It's a Commons Library report, so I think reliable.
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