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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unless independence campaigners can convince the oldies in the next 3 weeks then YES, surely, is doomed
A lot has been talked about the gender effect in the September 18th Scottish referendum and today a new Survation poll of pensioners for the Sunday Post highlights the generation battle.
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Poor Alex. Can things get any worse?
http://www.reelscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/dr_finlays_casebook.jpg
Salmond is the least trusted on pensions of the politicians mentioned, with the obvious exception of discredited Swinney.Darling is easily the most trusted. Would you buy a used car from Eck ?
On a different matter, it appears that todays Sunday Times YouGov poll is based on a sample of 460, according to the data on the last page of the poll. Or there has been an error.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8wj4hu4alm/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140822-2.pdf
But the pensioner effect is much diminished as turnout increases. If the overall turnout is 80%+ as is being forecast then the differential turnout is going to be, at best, just over 10% making the views of this group important but not as excessively so as they would be in a GE.
There is an important lesson here for younger people. If you don't want your politicians to waste limited available resources on fripperies such as winter heating allowances, free TV licences, bus passes and additional pension while loading up the younger generation with debt as far as the eye can see, both personal for students and national in government debt they really need to vote.
It appears to me that without their raison d'etre, the SNP could lose some voter support at next year's GE. When coupled with an assumed fall off in support for the LibDems, I question whether this could create a significant swing towards Labour, thereby resulting in seats such as Dundee East, East Dumbartonshire, Edinburgh West, and Na h-Eileanan an Iar potentially changing hands.
Interesting. If the old and the senile in the rest of the UK weren't allowed to vote the Tories would never be in government again.
That’s quite a significant margin in favour of remaining within the UK. - surprised it's so high.
Take yourself out before you become one of them !
The signs are as follows:
- assertion that the cause (in this case independence) will of itself bring about miraculous results
- messianic belief that the cause is a force of destiny, i.e., that “history is on our side”
- hatred and belittling of those who do not share the cause (see above)
- irrational dismissal of impartial information such as opinion polls and the media as being in the hands of the enemies of the people
- conspiracy theories (like advising voters to not use pencil provided as it can be rubbed out and falsified)
These are then followed by denunciation of aims and leaders of the cause when miraculous results do not appear. So watch out after 18th September, whatever the outcome.
http://planetpedro.wordpress.com/2014/08/23/dear-yes-voters-and-other-nationalists/
Possibly terminal.
More than half the money collected through council tax in Scotland goes towards public sector pensions and our growing elderly population is pushing up the state pension bill every year, so it’s an issue which can’t be ignored. But the independence White Paper not only kicks the problem down the road but actually makes it more of a challenge with the promise of even higher payouts.
http://www.sundaypost.com/news-views/scotland/independence-referendum/independence-on-trial/oaps-panic-over-yes-vote-1.539040
But one day Roger will be marching through London shouting for Gaza and practicing his quenelles.
Then as he passes the Edinburgh Woollen Mill Shop suddenly he will find an almost irresistible urge to pop in and browse. At that point he will have crossed over, the old Roger will have gone.
A new Roger will emerge in tartan slippers and a cardigan asking why the people who plan demos never put enough toilets on the route and praising George Osborne for the latest rise in pensions.
Forget Lab\Con crossover, Basil should be tailing Roger.
Independent Scotland: 96%
Scotland in UK: 32%
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-Pensioners-Poll-Tables.pdf
Darling: 39
Osborne: 23
Cameron: 18
Brown: 16
Sturgeon: 2
Swinney: 1
Salmond: 1
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10133636/Its-easy-for-Salmond-to-be-so-blithe-about-pensions.html
The majority of them will be paid in sterling, so he's got no worries.
Which coming from a bloke who has no economic plan for the UK is a bit rich.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/23/ed-balls-scotland-euro-least-bad-option-independence
http://www.thepaperboy.com/uk/front-pages.cfm
...the only really negative one for her is "Border Controls In Chaos" in the Sunday Telegraph.
This isn't good, but Home Secretaries always have Border Controls In Chaos headlines, because the voters have impossible and contradictory expectations of what border controls can do.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/502667/FBI-agents-guard-UK-airports-against-jihadi-fanatics
we are so cr8p, the Americans are having to step in. OK its the Express, but its actually quite a good story from what is normally an utterly dismal paper.
http://www.samizdata.net/2014/08/an-independent-scotland-will-have-to-choose-between-the-pound-and-socialism/
David Davis also monstered May's terror asbo plan in the Mail....
Another dumpling that adds nothing , an empty headed F***wit who would struggle to spell his name.
PS: A boring little sh**head as well to boot
How are you enjoying Berlin, EiT? it's the only major capital in Western Europe that I've never been to - I'd like to, sometime...
State pension payments are made from general taxation year in year out. There is no funding reserve build up over time to pay future pensions.
http://www.sundaypost.com/news-views/scotland/pensions-in-an-independent-scotland-we-ask-the-expert-1.539034
Why are 96% of No-voting Scottish pensioner worried about their pension in an independent Scotland?
Are they all thick turnips too?
http://money.aol.co.uk/2013/11/28/uk-state-pension-is-lowest-in-europe/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2514232/Britains-pension-shame-State-packages-worst-world-study-shows.html
Is that sufficient for you
PS: That will be in or out of a CU.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2514232/Britains-pension-shame-State-packages-worst-world-study-shows.html
What should Scotsmen wear under their kilts when sitting adjacent to a head of state?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_SRTBaafRZfw/TOq_839e-hI/AAAAAAAAFLw/Cg18gonIXkY/s1600/queen_and_soldiers.jpg
Exclusive - the 2nd ever Sunil on Sunday ELBOW!
Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week (7 polls with Field-work 17th to 22nd August 2014):
Lab 37.2% (+1.0)
Con 33.4% (+0.3)
UKIP 12.8% (-0.3)
LibDem 8.6% (-0.2)
(brackets - changes from our inaugural ELBOW last Sunday 17th August)
Now JackW will definitely be able to know his ARSE from our ELBOW
From my point of view there's also a lot of developer activity as people get pulled in from all over Europe - ran into some people building a prediction market on my API that I hadn't known about...
Earlier this year one of the high head yins at Dundee City Council decided to retire. Because this was contrived to occur in yet another reorganisation she walked away with over £300K of Council Tax money and, of course, an extremely generous unfunded pension.
I have a neighbour who retired on such a pension at 59. My Council Tax, when I am still working at 70 (health permitting) will be funding that.
There is currently a golden generation of well paid, enormously subsidised public sector management who are gaining wealth in a way that would make a banker blush. They never retire, they always get a "package", they get index linked pensions based on final salaries and they retire young. All of this will change and, in fairness, is starting to change already but the cost of this clovered generation will be a problem for the next 30 years.
Malcolm is deluding himself if he thinks rUK are going to be paying this extortion for those who have lived and worked in Scotland. That horrendous cost will fall on an independent Scotland and we will have as big a problem with it as the rest of the UK, possibly more so as our public sector is somewhat bigger.
Neil will be on shortly and point out once again it is anticipated that the share of our GDP subsidising such pensions is projected to fall. This is because of the sort of reforms that the Coalition has brought in including later retirement, higher contributions from the staff themselves and moves towards average pensions. But very little of this will hurt the golden generation now in their late 50s and desperately looking for the exit before the gates are shut.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-28892903
I did posit this question a few weeks ago but I will repeat due to your forgetfulness. If Scotland reneges on UK debt who is responsible for Scottish pensions (considering they are not invested but tend to come from Current Expenditure)?
I am sure that you replied that these benefits will come from the national entity. Your recent comment appear to contradict this; please clarify.
:better-apart:
EtA: You and Patrick have re clarified the point.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/10737425/UK-pensions-make-top-10-in-global-index.html
Come closer. I see old people!
'malcolm g is correct on that one:'
But the best private pensions until Gordon Brown trashed them.
'The man who stole your old age: How Gordon Brown ...
www.dailymail.co.uk/.../The-man-stole-old-age-How-Gordon-Brown-sec...
'Gordon Brown decided pension funds were a ripe target and knowingly destroyed what was once one of the great pension systems in the world. Eleven million people with company pensions and a further seven million with personal pensions were affected by the sleight of hand dreamt up in that posh Park Lane penthouse.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1266662/The-man-stole-old-age-How-Gordon-Brown-secretly-imposed-ruinous-tax-wrecked-retirements-millions.html#ixzz3BIZ7b7x4
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"Some 80% of MPs lack basic understanding of where the UK’s money comes from, according to a new poll."
http://blueandgreentomorrow.com/2014/08/19/poll-three-quarters-of-mps-dont-understand-how-money-is-made/
Despite this vivid demonstration of Scottish irrationality he was also interned during WW2 and died shortly after.
Maybe, maybe not. How different countries operate "state" pensions is fiendishly complex. France for instance, I believe, has minimum non contribution pensions, mandatory " state occupational " pensions and so on. How do you compare apples with apples? What age are these valid from? Are they all inflation proofed? And how sustainable are they over the next decades? France appears to be adopting an ostrich policy to increasing life expectancy which will cause huge headaches to other parts of their budget if they wish to continue down that path ( they may, if they're prepared for the sacrifice). How does the private sector dovetail into a this by country? We used to do pretty well on that measure (along with the Dutch) till Gordon Brown screwed it all up big time.
It's an easy headline to say "we're crap ", the reality is more subtle. Though we are far crapper than in 1997 no doubt.
volcanopete It can be solved by English votes for English laws
Millions of people who contributed and now live in foreign countries receive their pensions, just as people in Scotland would. This is not hard to understand and it may have been many many years since they contributed to UK tax system so what would change. Do you suggest they will stop paying pensions to ex pat Scots who currently receive it outside the UK.
Mr. G, UK pensions are pretty awful now, due in large part to Gordon Brown.
I could add to the woe, the utter disaster which is the 2004 Pension Act which has copper bottomed and gold plated guarantees for anyone lucky enough to be in a defined benefit scheme at that point and never changes jobs ( unless joining the public sector ) till they retire, but at the price of the nigh on total collapse of the defined benefit pension in the private sector.
A text book classic of making something so risky and difficult via regulation that people simply stop doing it, and a great example of the power of Government to ( how ever well intentioned ) screw up big time at vast cost to millions of its citizens,