Seasonal factors and the timing of general elections – politicalbetting.com

Re header: TSE very wisely corrected me as to what the rules on elections are. I had thought there was a 5 year rule, but its not so simple. I think there is little chance of a late-year GE, and I find it hard to imagine anything other than May-ish 2024.

Theuniondivvie said:

Bond wankers, meet your overlord.

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1451543449648369664?s=21

Replying to
@johnestevens

Downing Street: “An evening film screening took place for staff who made voluntary donations, with all proceeds going to Sarcoma UK”

CorrectHorseBattery said:

We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

How about a temporary lockdown of schools until the beginning of November?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

As you support labour maybe you need a word with them as they do not support even going with plan B

They do though don't they. Just scared to say it - yet. But they will.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

As you support labour maybe you need a word with them as they do not support even going with plan B

Indeed. Plan A for Labour.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.

Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

And if not, why not?

*Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

Just to add I was in Portugal a couple of weeks ago. 100 percent mask wearing indoors. Life and economy in full swing and daily total for new infections in the hundreds. This is just so much easier than leaving things until a lockdown becomes necessary.

Stocky said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

As you support labour maybe you need a word with them as they do not support even going with plan B

They do though don't they. Just scared to say it - yet. But they will.

I have no doubt you have just hit the nail in the head

ThomasNashe said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.

Do people seriously think the situation is in any way comparable to last October?

Back then we were at the beginning of an exponential infection wave with an unvaccinated population, and we already had restrictions in place and lots of venues were closed before we had a full lockdown.

A year later we've been fully open for months and the virus has been circulating among a population with a high level of immunity. In what way could things develop that would justify another lockdown?

Farooq said:

paulyork64 said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stocky said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

I don't think that's true.

In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.

Totally squandered is hyperbole

Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.

As WG posted earlier the UK still has a lower death rate from Covid per head not only than the USA but also now than the EU as a whole due to low vaccination rates in Eastern Europe

The USA is not in Eastern Europe
(day 60)

Eh?

It's my standard way of answering HYUFD's cherry-picking bollocks.
He has a tendency to deliberately mislead through very selective facts and through hyper-literal interpretations. It's pointless to point out to him what he's doing, because he already knows.

Ah ok. Thought you were implying he'd said the USA was in Eastern Europe

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

It’s not though is it? SAGE say prepare the way if restrictions are needed. Not, do it NOW. It’s friday, relax, go to the pub, or cinema or night club, or stay home, but stop obsessing about cases in kids.

Farooq said:

ydoethur said:

Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

And if not, why not?

*Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

Is it unlawful for police to demand proof of exemption?

Yes. Disability discrimination because you would be treating them differently from somebody not exempt.

A school in Tamworth got into a truly terrible tangle over this. I don’t think they’ll be trying to enforce mask wearing on the disabled daughter of a leading equalities lawyer again…

williamglenn said:

ThomasNashe said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.

Do people seriously think the situation is in any way comparable to last October?

Back then we were at the beginning of an exponential infection wave with an unvaccinated population, and we already had restrictions in place and lots of venues were closed before we had a full lockdown.

A year later we've been fully open for months and the virus has been circulating among a population with a high level of immunity. In what way could things develop that would justify another lockdown?

The conditions are ripe for developing another variant. The point is that the measures needed to get this under control are easy. If things spiral out of control then it’s much harder.

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

How about a temporary lockdown of schools until the beginning of November?

The cohorts being affected are young children and the unvaccinated

We need to lay the blame for the delay to school children vaccinations squarely where it lies at the door of JCVI who wanted our vaccines used abroad and delayed the decision

I just do not blame Boris, Sturgeon, Drakeford or NI for this and it is time JCVI were red carded

I am also content with HMG not folding to the onslaught of the media with iSage reappearing all over the media and expect that by Christmas this outbreak of lockdown fever will be shown as ill-judged

I was being facetious. Half-term is just starting so the schools will be closed.

Actually I was not really responding to your post but more the highest infection rates are in children and the unvaccinated

ThomasNashe said:

williamglenn said:

ThomasNashe said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.

Do people seriously think the situation is in any way comparable to last October?

Back then we were at the beginning of an exponential infection wave with an unvaccinated population, and we already had restrictions in place and lots of venues were closed before we had a full lockdown.

A year later we've been fully open for months and the virus has been circulating among a population with a high level of immunity. In what way could things develop that would justify another lockdown?

The conditions are ripe for developing another variant. The point is that the measures needed to get this under control are easy. If things spiral out of control then it’s much harder.

Except the mutation space is crowded. A successful new variant needs to be more infectious than delta, and that’s hard. Eventually changes can occur that might allow that to happen, but at the expense of severity, and suddenly Covid becomes more like a cold.

Anabobazina said:

Stocky said:

ydoethur said:

Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

And if not, why not?

*Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

Am I being pedantic?

Of course you are, but bravo because this is pedantic betting dot com.

Pendants of the world unite! We have nothing to lose but our sense of proportion.

ThomasNashe said:

williamglenn said:

ThomasNashe said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.

Do people seriously think the situation is in any way comparable to last October?

Back then we were at the beginning of an exponential infection wave with an unvaccinated population, and we already had restrictions in place and lots of venues were closed before we had a full lockdown.

A year later we've been fully open for months and the virus has been circulating among a population with a high level of immunity. In what way could things develop that would justify another lockdown?

The conditions are ripe for developing another variant. The point is that the measures needed to get this under control are easy. If things spiral out of control then it’s much harder.

Nope.

The idea that restrictions are “easy” is absolute nonsense.

Why do people keep advancing this palpable garbage?

Stocky said:

Anabobazina said:

Stocky said:

ydoethur said:

Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

And if not, why not?

*Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

Am I being pedantic?

Of course you are, but bravo because this is pedantic betting dot com.

Pendants of the world unite! We have nothing to lose but our sense of proportion.

Lanyards of old England in symphony.

IshmaelZ said:

Stocky said:

ydoethur said:

Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

And if not, why not?

*Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

Am I being pedantic?

I think you are wrong. Do x or go to prison (or even just pay a fine and get licence points) means x is compulsory. Not that you could fine or imprison for non vaccination, you just want soft compulsion by excluding people from anywhere they might want to go.

Carried to a logical extreme it would mean murder is permissible.

Anyway me and and the boy are off to the pub.

Bonsoir!

Farooq said:

ydoethur said:

Farooq said:

ydoethur said:

Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

And if not, why not?

*Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

Is it unlawful for police to demand proof of exemption?

Yes. Disability discrimination because you would be treating them differently from somebody not exempt.

A school in Tamworth got into a truly terrible tangle over this. I don’t think they’ll be trying to enforce mask wearing on the disabled daughter of a leading equalities lawyer again…

Schools are one thing, but police?
Here's a metaphor. Some medical conditions can make a person appear to be drunk. I would be surprised to learn that it was unlawful for a police officer to intervene in the case of someone appearing to be drunk entering a car and driving off. Of course, it'll be deeply annoying for the poor person who gets mistaken for a drunk driver, but surely the police can act step in and ask the question?

I'm not saying your wrong on a point of law, I'm just double checking because I, a layman, find it surprising what you and Anabobazina are saying.

Police were involved in that case, because it was at the school gates and got very heated. They very hurriedly backed down when the law was explained to them.

You can download exemption certificates from gov.uk as well, if you wish - and there is no need to demonstrate you have a disability to do so - but you cannot be compelled to show them to anyone. Disability discrimination is still disability discriminatIon, doesn’t matter who does it.

turbotubbs said:

ThomasNashe said:

williamglenn said:

ThomasNashe said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.

Do people seriously think the situation is in any way comparable to last October?

Back then we were at the beginning of an exponential infection wave with an unvaccinated population, and we already had restrictions in place and lots of venues were closed before we had a full lockdown.

A year later we've been fully open for months and the virus has been circulating among a population with a high level of immunity. In what way could things develop that would justify another lockdown?

The conditions are ripe for developing another variant. The point is that the measures needed to get this under control are easy. If things spiral out of control then it’s much harder.

Except the mutation space is crowded. A successful new variant needs to be more infectious than delta, and that’s hard. Eventually changes can occur that might allow that to happen, but at the expense of severity, and suddenly Covid becomes more like a cold.

I wonder whether infectiousness and deadliness are correlated, positively or negatively.? At a guess, being a know-nothing in this area, I suppose not. But virus fitness is, I suppose, positively correlated with infectiousness and negatively with deadliness. So could we get a "benign" variant emerging as the cavalry over the hill as per you thesis? That would be welcome.

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

How about a temporary lockdown of schools until the beginning of November?

The cohorts being affected are young children and the unvaccinated

We need to lay the blame for the delay to school children vaccinations squarely where it lies at the door of JCVI who wanted our vaccines used abroad and delayed the decision

I just do not blame Boris, Sturgeon, Drakeford or NI for this and it is time JCVI were red carded

I am also content with HMG not folding to the onslaught of the media with iSage reappearing all over the media and expect that by Christmas this outbreak of lockdown fever will be shown as ill-judged

I was being facetious. Half-term is just starting so the schools will be closed.

If the pattern from Nottinghamshire and Doncaster is repeated nationally then there will be a fall in new cases.

Now they might rise again when schools return but by then millions more booster vaccination will be given and even more of the anti-vaxxers will be burned through.

Hence the shrill desperation of those who always want ever more restrictions.

On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

Am I right that the Greens now want to subsidise the carbon emissions of the rich and they want private renters (who tend to be young and poor) to pay for it ?

Well it works for me but I don't see how this benefits the environment or reduces socioeconomic inequality.

ydoethur said:

Stocky said:

ydoethur said:

Stocky said:

ydoethur said:

Stocky said:

ydoethur said:

Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

And if not, why not?

*Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

Am I being pedantic?

You’re missing the point. I’m asking how people can be in favour of a clumsy, ineffectual and damaging restriction affecting everyone ahead of a step that would have a much greater impact on transmission and affect only 10% of people who are many of them - not all - just being selfish Tristram Hunts.

It seems to me to be ridiculous and inconsistent.

For me then I think it would depend on how you are going to introduce compulsion.

For which one?

Being vaccinated. For example, if you introduced "compulsion" via a £100 tax penalty if you didn't get vaccinated then I would favour that ahead of totalitarian mass mask wearing with no end in sight.

Well, my preferred solution was to charge them the cost of any Covid treatment, but I’m aware that didn’t find general favour

A fine would seem to meet the case, although for the damage they’re doing I’d put it at £1000 - TV licence level. Or it could be made grounds for refusal of employment.

I think that would suddenly see a lot of these antivax twats hurry down the jab centre.

I think they would become martyrs to their cause and refuse to pay the fine.

Stocky said:

ydoethur said:

Stocky said:

ydoethur said:

Stocky said:

ydoethur said:

Stocky said:

ydoethur said:

Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

And if not, why not?

*Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

Am I being pedantic?

You’re missing the point. I’m asking how people can be in favour of a clumsy, ineffectual and damaging restriction affecting everyone ahead of a step that would have a much greater impact on transmission and affect only 10% of people who are many of them - not all - just being selfish Tristram Hunts.

It seems to me to be ridiculous and inconsistent.

For me then I think it would depend on how you are going to introduce compulsion.

For which one?

Being vaccinated. For example, if you introduced "compulsion" via a £100 tax penalty if you didn't get vaccinated then I would favour that ahead of totalitarian mass mask wearing with no end in sight.

Well, my preferred solution was to charge them the cost of any Covid treatment, but I’m aware that didn’t find general favour

A fine would seem to meet the case, although for the damage they’re doing I’d put it at £1000 - TV licence level. Or it could be made grounds for refusal of employment.

I think that would suddenly see a lot of these antivax twats hurry down the jab centre.

I think they would become martyrs to their cause and refuse to pay the fine.

Then give them twelve months.

After all, they want to be perpetually locked up. And we want them out of the way. Win win.

turbotubbs said:

ThomasNashe said:

williamglenn said:

ThomasNashe said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.

Do people seriously think the situation is in any way comparable to last October?

Back then we were at the beginning of an exponential infection wave with an unvaccinated population, and we already had restrictions in place and lots of venues were closed before we had a full lockdown.

A year later we've been fully open for months and the virus has been circulating among a population with a high level of immunity. In what way could things develop that would justify another lockdown?

The conditions are ripe for developing another variant. The point is that the measures needed to get this under control are easy. If things spiral out of control then it’s much harder.

Except the mutation space is crowded. A successful new variant needs to be more infectious than delta, and that’s hard. Eventually changes can occur that might allow that to happen, but at the expense of severity, and suddenly Covid becomes more like a cold.

Delta Plus cases are increasing (a mutation of Delta) far too early yet to say if it is more transmissible yet or not but they are watching it closely.

On masks I believe they should at the very least be reintroduced on all public transport outside of London.

MrEd said:

Northern_Al said:

On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

All this Covid talk is boring. At the end of the day, we all die but we get there by different routes. But having our whole life / thoughts dominated by questions over variants, masks etc is boring as shit.

How about this. Why don’t we open up some betting markets based on Covid outcomes, like with other markets?

There would be so many potential betting opportunities. You could bet on cases per day, under / over a certain amount. Ditto hospitalisations, people on respirators and why not deaths. And you could do it for each country. Or have betting scenarios based on multiple countries (eg “will Italy or the U.K. have the highest number of cases per 100K of population).

I mean, it’s the biggest event for the past two years and this is a betting website so why nor?

We’ve already done that, it’s just nobody’s won the dead pool yet.

Unless @Dura_Ace has confirmed a winner recently that I don’t know of.

Northern_Al said:

On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

Sick oldies are dying from covid plus some younger anti-vaxxers.

It may sound callous but we have to be realistic - sick oldies die all the time. They did before covid , they have during covid and they will after covid.

And the people in hospital ?

Well this is from the Guardian today:

Belgium’s coronavirus commissioner Pedro Falcon told a news conference that vaccines were able to prevent 70% of infections and 90% of hospital admissions, and the vast majority of people in hospital were unvaccinated.

Belgium is a country with over 90% of its adults fully vaccinated yet the 'vast majority' of those currently hospitalised with covid are unvaccinated.

ydoethur said:

Northern_Al said:

On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

Five in every six people who are dying are unvaccinated. Plus they account for two thirds of hospitalisations despite being just one tenth of the adult population.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/4-charts-show-how-covid-vaccines-are-working-in-the-uk-.html

ETA - a further reminder that we do need to learn to live with it because the only infectious disease we’ve ever eliminated entirely is smallpox. Covid after two jabs is not likely to be a serious illness.

Blimey.
Thought experiment. How would we be operating as a society if there had been no vaccines?
Right now, with winter coming and those figures?

ydoethur said:

Northern_Al said:

On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

Five in every six people who are dying are unvaccinated. Plus they account for two thirds of hospitalisations despite being just one tenth of the adult population.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/4-charts-show-how-covid-vaccines-are-working-in-the-uk-.html

I don't think your interpretation is correct. The "five in every six" figure - and also the "two thirds of hospitalisations" figure - is based on a rate per 100,000.

That means you have to factor in the fact that only a small proportion is unvaccinated. If you do that, the vaccinated will be well ahead in both categories.

another_richard said:

ydoethur said:

Northern_Al said:

On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

Five in every six people who are dying are unvaccinated. Plus they account for two thirds of hospitalisations despite being just one tenth of the adult population.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/4-charts-show-how-covid-vaccines-are-working-in-the-uk-.html

ETA - a further reminder that we do need to learn to live with it because the only infectious disease we’ve ever eliminated entirely is smallpox. Covid after two jabs is not likely to be a serious illness.

Its very depressing that vaccines have given us a way of living with covid yet many would prefer to cower in their homes and think a worthless piece of cloth will protect them.

Meanwhile the authoritarians and those who believe the UK should be a health service with a country attached are exploiting the frightened.

Perhaps, just perhaps, they're not selfish sh*ts, and think that the piece of cloth might help protect others as well?

I'm not cowering in my home. I've done a run every day so far this year, and feel perfectly happy to go into shops etc. But I still wear a mask where I feel it's appropriate.

Professor Peston:

I pointed out three months ago that daily dashboard infection figures don’t include anyone infected for a second time, and that I thought this unfortunate, because by definition it means those daily figures are not the whole Covid19 story. These daily figures…

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1451605778947837968?s=21