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Seasonal factors and the timing of general elections – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,448
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    As WG posted earlier the UK still has a lower death rate from Covid per head not only than the USA but also now than the EU as a whole due to low vaccination rates in Eastern Europe
    The USA is not in Eastern Europe
    (day 60)
    Eh?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,063
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,063
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,063
    UK local R

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,063
    Case summary

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  • meanwhile back at the ranch . . . in this case the Lazy K . . .

    Seattle Times ($) - Rod Dembowski accused of verbal abuse, amid conflict with King County Council official

    The longtime chief of staff for the Metropolitan King County Council resigned earlier this year and received a financial settlement after alleging verbal abuse by Councilmember Rod Dembowski.

    The resignation was the end result of a yearslong conflict between Dembowski and the chief of staff, Carolyn Busch, that prompted the county at one point to hire a mediator. And it was one of several allegations that Dembowski treated staff, especially female staff, in a harsh or verbally abusive manner.

    The events spurred the County Council to begin writing a new code of conduct that will, if approved, apply to both staff and elected officials. Council leadership is also working on a comprehensive update to personnel policies and has created and filled a new human resources manager position for the legislative branch.

    Dembowski, who has been on the County Council for eight years and is up for reelection this year, said he’s worked to improve his communication style but totally denied that any of the issues were related to gender.

    “There absolutely have been, upon reflection, instances in my eight years here where I’ve been too passionate or too blunt in communications with folks and I’ve definitely learned and I regret it,” he said. “I am truly sorry for any interaction where I have not lived up to expectations, and will keep working to be better, with particular awareness of how different people receive communication based on their lived experience.”

    Council Chair Claudia Balducci documented the alleged pattern of behavior in a letter to Dembowski earlier this year.

    “I urge you to consider that this has been an ongoing series of complaints from a number of different people over a number of years,” Balducci wrote in the letter, obtained through a public records request. “I have observed two common features in these situations: First, that they often involve women on the receiving end of your harsh treatment. Second, the issues seem to arise when you feel that you are not getting something that you want.”

    In addition to the conflict with Busch, Balducci writes that Dembowski was “verbally abusive” toward the council’s former chief legal counsel (a man), causing “that seasoned and highly-respected professional to offer his resignation on the spot.”

    SSI - and more of the same, a real grade-B soap opera.

    Rod Dembowski is on the 2021 general election ballot for re-election to the King Co Council. Despite this story, zero reason to think he will lose, his opponent (a woman) is not gonna come close to beating him. Esp. as over 10% of the likely ballots for this election have already been returned by voters in his district. Plus he's done a pretty good job all in all, despite this episode.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,063
    UK hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,063
    UK deaths

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,943
    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    Which European country do you think is better placed to avoid any restrictions in November and December?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610

    Stocky said:

    On what basis do you guys place a "like"?

    I've spent five minutes too long thinking about this and have come up with the following four reasons:

    1) I agree with the post
    2) the post is very well written and/or interesting though I don't necessarily agree with it
    3) I am acknowledging a come-back response to a post of mine
    4) The post made me laugh

    I don't think I would place a "like" on the basis of (2) but certainly do on the basis of the other three criteria.
    I never know who has liked my posts - in my mind I have an idea of the kind of people who would (and wouldn't) but I might be completely wrong about it.
    May be a test of how party political you are? I mean, if you are a tub-thumping party activist (I'm not suggesting you are) perhaps you couldn't quite bring yourself to "like" on basis of 2) no matter how well written and interesting it is?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,063
    Age related data

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,383
    Charles said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    Not on a comparable basis.

    We decided the interests of society didn’t entitle us to force medical treatment with a net negative predicted outcome on our children. In many ways that is admirable.
    I don't think there's a net negative predicted outcome on children.

    Or rather, it's complicated.

    If virus prevalence is very low (just as with any disease), then the benefit to any individual child is negligible. Who would they catch Covid from?

    On the other hand, if the disease is rampant, and there's a high chance that they would catch Covid, then that risk-reward changes, as the vaccine risk stays the same, but the having a serious infection risk increases.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,163
    rkrkrk said:

    49k new cases today (and contrary to MaxPB's confident assertion yesterday, the specimen case rate continues to rise week on week), and over 1k daily admissions to hospital now across UK.

    Pretty bad news I would say, but looks largely driven by England and Wales (to a lesser extent). Scotland and NI don't seem to be seeing growth in cases quite as quickly.

    We're trending to a 5% WoW rise this week, down from a 20% WoW rise. I think I called it a few days too early for dropping cases.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,383

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    Which European country do you think is better placed to avoid any restrictions in November and December?
    Denmark.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,063
    Age related data scaled to 100K

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  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    Which European country do you think is better placed to avoid any restrictions in November and December?
    Whichever of them wants to make that political choice. That's a decision that comes down to not just epidemiology, but economics, politics, climate, geography, and culture. There will be sensible arguments advocating for and against in each country.
  • We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,383
    Who cares?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,447
    Re header: TSE very wisely corrected me as to what the rules on elections are. I had thought there was a 5 year rule, but its not so simple. I think there is little chance of a late-year GE, and I find it hard to imagine anything other than May-ish 2024.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    As WG posted earlier the UK still has a lower death rate from Covid per head not only than the USA but also now than the EU as a whole due to low vaccination rates in Eastern Europe
    The USA is not in Eastern Europe
    (day 60)
    Eh?
    It's my standard way of answering HYUFD's cherry-picking bollocks.
    He has a tendency to deliberately mislead through very selective facts and through hyper-literal interpretations. It's pointless to point out to him what he's doing, because he already knows.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,775
    @BlancheLivermore " ... Proto-Germanic aluth another word for beer.... "

    Aluth looks similar to the Finnish word for beer, olut. It's seldom one can find connections of that kind between Fenno-Ugric words and Germanic ones, but that looks like one.

  • Replying to
    @johnestevens

    Downing Street: “An evening film screening took place for staff who made voluntary donations, with all proceeds going to Sarcoma UK”
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640

    We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

    Looking forward to seeing the anti-lockdown protesters shivering in the late-November rain. That'll be a test of dedication.
  • We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

    As you support labour maybe you need a word with them as they do not support even going with plan B

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,943

    We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

    How about a temporary lockdown of schools until the beginning of November?
  • I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

    Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610

    We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

    As you support labour maybe you need a word with them as they do not support even going with plan B

    They do though don't they. Just scared to say it - yet. But they will.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,203
    rcs1000 said:
    A room that would otherwise have been empty was used to screen a film and raise money for a cancer charity.

    I mean this one is up there with bloke cries at funeral and bloke eats bacon sandwich as super scoops.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,203

    We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

    As you support labour maybe you need a word with them as they do not support even going with plan B

    Indeed. Plan A for Labour.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,203
    Farooq said:

    We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

    Looking forward to seeing the anti-lockdown protesters shivering in the late-November rain. That'll be a test of dedication.
    Why?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,220

    I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

    Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

    Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640
    @Theuniondivvie

    What a summoning spell! Are you some kind of sorcerer?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,447

    I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

    Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

    I think you're generally right. Not sure the 'time is running out' bit though. This isn't an extinction thing. Climate change... well that just might be. (I don't believe it is mind you.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,663
    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,034
    edited October 2021

    We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

    How about a temporary lockdown of schools until the beginning of November?
    The cohorts being affected are young children and the unvaccinated

    We need to lay the blame for the delay to school children vaccinations squarely where it lies at the door of JCVI who wanted our vaccines used abroad and delayed the decision

    I just do not blame Boris, Sturgeon, Drakeford or NI for this and it is time JCVI were red carded

    I am also content with HMG not folding to the onslaught of the media with iSage reappearing all over the media and expect that by Christmas this outbreak of lockdown fever will be shown as ill-judged
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,220
    Just to add I was in Portugal a couple of weeks ago. 100 percent mask wearing indoors. Life and economy in full swing and daily total for new infections in the hundreds. This is just so much easier than leaving things until a lockdown becomes necessary.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,291
    edited October 2021


    Replying to
    @johnestevens

    Downing Street: “An evening film screening took place for staff who made voluntary donations, with all proceeds going to Sarcoma UK”
    I suppose it’s making some use of the £2m repro Ibrox boardroom, though not sure if Fleming would approve of No10 paying a Russian company for the work. Could be a plot twist in the next etiolated iteration of the franchise, mind!
  • Stocky said:

    We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

    As you support labour maybe you need a word with them as they do not support even going with plan B

    They do though don't they. Just scared to say it - yet. But they will.
    I have no doubt you have just hit the nail in the head
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,203
    If cases start falling in a couple of weeks, some people on here are going to look very silly indeed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,943

    I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

    Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

    Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.
    Do people seriously think the situation is in any way comparable to last October?

    Back then we were at the beginning of an exponential infection wave with an unvaccinated population, and we already had restrictions in place and lots of venues were closed before we had a full lockdown.

    A year later we've been fully open for months and the virus has been circulating among a population with a high level of immunity. In what way could things develop that would justify another lockdown?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,479

    We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

    No, we haven’t. In England we have no restrictions in place at all. We can introduce some minor ones, and besides, the cases are dominated by the 10-14 year old children, almost all of whom will have had Covid soon. Cases will start falling soon.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,448
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    As WG posted earlier the UK still has a lower death rate from Covid per head not only than the USA but also now than the EU as a whole due to low vaccination rates in Eastern Europe
    The USA is not in Eastern Europe
    (day 60)
    Eh?
    It's my standard way of answering HYUFD's cherry-picking bollocks.
    He has a tendency to deliberately mislead through very selective facts and through hyper-literal interpretations. It's pointless to point out to him what he's doing, because he already knows.
    Ah ok. Thought you were implying he'd said the USA was in Eastern Europe
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640
    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Is it unlawful for police to demand proof of exemption?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,943

    We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

    How about a temporary lockdown of schools until the beginning of November?
    The cohorts being affected are young children and the unvaccinated

    We need to lay the blame for the delay to school children vaccinations squarely where it lies at the door of JCVI who wanted our vaccines used abroad and delayed the decision

    I just do not blame Boris, Sturgeon, Drakeford or NI for this and it is time JCVI were red carded

    I am also content with HMG not folding to the onslaught of the media with iSage reappearing all over the media and expect that by Christmas this outbreak of lockdown fever will be shown as ill-judged
    I was being facetious. Half-term is just starting so the schools will be closed.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,479

    I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

    Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

    It’s not though is it? SAGE say prepare the way if restrictions are needed. Not, do it NOW. It’s friday, relax, go to the pub, or cinema or night club, or stay home, but stop obsessing about cases in kids.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,203
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Is it unlawful for police to demand proof of exemption?
    Indeed so, as I understand it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,663
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Is it unlawful for police to demand proof of exemption?
    Yes. Disability discrimination because you would be treating them differently from somebody not exempt.

    A school in Tamworth got into a truly terrible tangle over this. I don’t think they’ll be trying to enforce mask wearing on the disabled daughter of a leading equalities lawyer again…
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,479

    If cases start falling in a couple of weeks, some people on here are going to look very silly indeed.

    When, not if.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,220

    I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

    Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

    Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.
    Do people seriously think the situation is in any way comparable to last October?

    Back then we were at the beginning of an exponential infection wave with an unvaccinated population, and we already had restrictions in place and lots of venues were closed before we had a full lockdown.

    A year later we've been fully open for months and the virus has been circulating among a population with a high level of immunity. In what way could things develop that would justify another lockdown?
    The conditions are ripe for developing another variant. The point is that the measures needed to get this under control are easy. If things spiral out of control then it’s much harder.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610
    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
  • We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

    How about a temporary lockdown of schools until the beginning of November?
    The cohorts being affected are young children and the unvaccinated

    We need to lay the blame for the delay to school children vaccinations squarely where it lies at the door of JCVI who wanted our vaccines used abroad and delayed the decision

    I just do not blame Boris, Sturgeon, Drakeford or NI for this and it is time JCVI were red carded

    I am also content with HMG not folding to the onslaught of the media with iSage reappearing all over the media and expect that by Christmas this outbreak of lockdown fever will be shown as ill-judged
    I was being facetious. Half-term is just starting so the schools will be closed.
    Actually I was not really responding to your post but more the highest infection rates are in children and the unvaccinated
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,943

    I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

    Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

    Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.
    Do people seriously think the situation is in any way comparable to last October?

    Back then we were at the beginning of an exponential infection wave with an unvaccinated population, and we already had restrictions in place and lots of venues were closed before we had a full lockdown.

    A year later we've been fully open for months and the virus has been circulating among a population with a high level of immunity. In what way could things develop that would justify another lockdown?
    The conditions are ripe for developing another variant. The point is that the measures needed to get this under control are easy. If things spiral out of control then it’s much harder.
    They're not easy at all. We know from past experience that to stop infection chains you need a very strict lockdown and you need to keep it in place for a long time. There is no reason to contemplate doing that at the moment.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,479

    I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

    Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

    Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.
    Do people seriously think the situation is in any way comparable to last October?

    Back then we were at the beginning of an exponential infection wave with an unvaccinated population, and we already had restrictions in place and lots of venues were closed before we had a full lockdown.

    A year later we've been fully open for months and the virus has been circulating among a population with a high level of immunity. In what way could things develop that would justify another lockdown?
    The conditions are ripe for developing another variant. The point is that the measures needed to get this under control are easy. If things spiral out of control then it’s much harder.
    Except the mutation space is crowded. A successful new variant needs to be more infectious than delta, and that’s hard. Eventually changes can occur that might allow that to happen, but at the expense of severity, and suddenly Covid becomes more like a cold.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,203
    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
    Of course you are, but bravo because this is pedantic betting dot com.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
    Of course you are, but bravo because this is pedantic betting dot com.
    Pendants of the world unite! We have nothing to lose but our sense of proportion.
  • I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

    Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

    It’s not though is it? SAGE say prepare the way if restrictions are needed. Not, do it NOW. It’s friday, relax, go to the pub, or cinema or night club, or stay home, but stop obsessing about cases in kids.
    I would just say some of the hyperbole on here tonight is not consistent with the Downing Street charts shown at their press conference and seems to me to be more political than analytical
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,203

    I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

    Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

    Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.
    Do people seriously think the situation is in any way comparable to last October?

    Back then we were at the beginning of an exponential infection wave with an unvaccinated population, and we already had restrictions in place and lots of venues were closed before we had a full lockdown.

    A year later we've been fully open for months and the virus has been circulating among a population with a high level of immunity. In what way could things develop that would justify another lockdown?
    The conditions are ripe for developing another variant. The point is that the measures needed to get this under control are easy. If things spiral out of control then it’s much harder.
    Nope.

    The idea that restrictions are “easy” is absolute nonsense.

    Why do people keep advancing this palpable garbage?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,663
    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
    You’re missing the point. I’m asking how people can be in favour of a clumsy, ineffectual and damaging restriction affecting everyone ahead of a step that would have a much greater impact on transmission and affect only 10% of people who are many of them - not all - just being selfish Tristram Hunts.

    It seems to me to be ridiculous and inconsistent.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
    I think you are wrong. Do x or go to prison (or even just pay a fine and get licence points) means x is compulsory. Not that you could fine or imprison for non vaccination, you just want soft compulsion by excluding people from anywhere they might want to go.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    meanwhile back at the ranch . . . in this case the Lazy K . . .

    Seattle Times ($) - Rod Dembowski accused of verbal abuse, amid conflict with King County Council official

    The longtime chief of staff for the Metropolitan King County Council resigned earlier this year and received a financial settlement after alleging verbal abuse by Councilmember Rod Dembowski.

    The resignation was the end result of a yearslong conflict between Dembowski and the chief of staff, Carolyn Busch, that prompted the county at one point to hire a mediator. And it was one of several allegations that Dembowski treated staff, especially female staff, in a harsh or verbally abusive manner.

    The events spurred the County Council to begin writing a new code of conduct that will, if approved, apply to both staff and elected officials. Council leadership is also working on a comprehensive update to personnel policies and has created and filled a new human resources manager position for the legislative branch.

    Dembowski, who has been on the County Council for eight years and is up for reelection this year, said he’s worked to improve his communication style but totally denied that any of the issues were related to gender.

    “There absolutely have been, upon reflection, instances in my eight years here where I’ve been too passionate or too blunt in communications with folks and I’ve definitely learned and I regret it,” he said. “I am truly sorry for any interaction where I have not lived up to expectations, and will keep working to be better, with particular awareness of how different people receive communication based on their lived experience.”

    Council Chair Claudia Balducci documented the alleged pattern of behavior in a letter to Dembowski earlier this year.

    “I urge you to consider that this has been an ongoing series of complaints from a number of different people over a number of years,” Balducci wrote in the letter, obtained through a public records request. “I have observed two common features in these situations: First, that they often involve women on the receiving end of your harsh treatment. Second, the issues seem to arise when you feel that you are not getting something that you want.”

    In addition to the conflict with Busch, Balducci writes that Dembowski was “verbally abusive” toward the council’s former chief legal counsel (a man), causing “that seasoned and highly-respected professional to offer his resignation on the spot.”

    SSI - and more of the same, a real grade-B soap opera.

    Rod Dembowski is on the 2021 general election ballot for re-election to the King Co Council. Despite this story, zero reason to think he will lose, his opponent (a woman) is not gonna come close to beating him. Esp. as over 10% of the likely ballots for this election have already been returned by voters in his district. Plus he's done a pretty good job all in all, despite this episode.

    Hello @SeaShantyIrish2 , is there a betting market on this :) ?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Is it unlawful for police to demand proof of exemption?
    Yes. Disability discrimination because you would be treating them differently from somebody not exempt.

    A school in Tamworth got into a truly terrible tangle over this. I don’t think they’ll be trying to enforce mask wearing on the disabled daughter of a leading equalities lawyer again…
    Schools are one thing, but police?
    Here's a metaphor. Some medical conditions can make a person appear to be drunk. I would be surprised to learn that it was unlawful for a police officer to intervene in the case of someone appearing to be drunk entering a car and driving off. Of course, it'll be deeply annoying for the poor person who gets mistaken for a drunk driver, but surely the police can act step in and ask the question?

    I'm not saying your wrong on a point of law, I'm just double checking because I, a layman, find it surprising what you and Anabobazina are saying.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,203
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
    Of course you are, but bravo because this is pedantic betting dot com.
    Pendants of the world unite! We have nothing to lose but our sense of proportion.
    Lanyards of old England in symphony.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,220

    I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

    Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

    Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.
    Do people seriously think the situation is in any way comparable to last October?

    Back then we were at the beginning of an exponential infection wave with an unvaccinated population, and we already had restrictions in place and lots of venues were closed before we had a full lockdown.

    A year later we've been fully open for months and the virus has been circulating among a population with a high level of immunity. In what way could things develop that would justify another lockdown?
    The conditions are ripe for developing another variant. The point is that the measures needed to get this under control are easy. If things spiral out of control then it’s much harder.
    Nope.

    The idea that restrictions are “easy” is absolute nonsense.

    Why do people keep advancing this palpable garbage?
    Mask wearing indoors is a bit inconvenient, but boy is it easier than lockdown.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,663
    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
    I think you are wrong. Do x or go to prison (or even just pay a fine and get licence points) means x is compulsory. Not that you could fine or imprison for non vaccination, you just want soft compulsion by excluding people from anywhere they might want to go.
    Carried to a logical extreme it would mean murder is permissible.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610
    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
    You’re missing the point. I’m asking how people can be in favour of a clumsy, ineffectual and damaging restriction affecting everyone ahead of a step that would have a much greater impact on transmission and affect only 10% of people who are many of them - not all - just being selfish Tristram Hunts.

    It seems to me to be ridiculous and inconsistent.
    For me then I think it would depend on how you are going to introduce compulsion.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,203
    Anyway me and and the boy are off to the pub.

    Bonsoir!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610
    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
    I think you are wrong. Do x or go to prison (or even just pay a fine and get licence points) means x is compulsory. Not that you could fine or imprison for non vaccination, you just want soft compulsion by excluding people from anywhere they might want to go.
    Isn't that just making an act (refusing to be vaccinated) illegal which to my mind differs from compulsion?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,663
    edited October 2021
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Is it unlawful for police to demand proof of exemption?
    Yes. Disability discrimination because you would be treating them differently from somebody not exempt.

    A school in Tamworth got into a truly terrible tangle over this. I don’t think they’ll be trying to enforce mask wearing on the disabled daughter of a leading equalities lawyer again…
    Schools are one thing, but police?
    Here's a metaphor. Some medical conditions can make a person appear to be drunk. I would be surprised to learn that it was unlawful for a police officer to intervene in the case of someone appearing to be drunk entering a car and driving off. Of course, it'll be deeply annoying for the poor person who gets mistaken for a drunk driver, but surely the police can act step in and ask the question?

    I'm not saying your wrong on a point of law, I'm just double checking because I, a layman, find it surprising what you and Anabobazina are saying.
    Police were involved in that case, because it was at the school gates and got very heated. They very hurriedly backed down when the law was explained to them.

    You can download exemption certificates from gov.uk as well, if you wish - and there is no need to demonstrate you have a disability to do so - but you cannot be compelled to show them to anyone. Disability discrimination is still disability discriminatIon, doesn’t matter who does it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,663
    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
    You’re missing the point. I’m asking how people can be in favour of a clumsy, ineffectual and damaging restriction affecting everyone ahead of a step that would have a much greater impact on transmission and affect only 10% of people who are many of them - not all - just being selfish Tristram Hunts.

    It seems to me to be ridiculous and inconsistent.
    For me then I think it would depend on how you are going to introduce compulsion.
    For which one?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,775

    I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

    Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

    Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.
    Do people seriously think the situation is in any way comparable to last October?

    Back then we were at the beginning of an exponential infection wave with an unvaccinated population, and we already had restrictions in place and lots of venues were closed before we had a full lockdown.

    A year later we've been fully open for months and the virus has been circulating among a population with a high level of immunity. In what way could things develop that would justify another lockdown?
    The conditions are ripe for developing another variant. The point is that the measures needed to get this under control are easy. If things spiral out of control then it’s much harder.
    Except the mutation space is crowded. A successful new variant needs to be more infectious than delta, and that’s hard. Eventually changes can occur that might allow that to happen, but at the expense of severity, and suddenly Covid becomes more like a cold.
    I wonder whether infectiousness and deadliness are correlated, positively or negatively.? At a guess, being a know-nothing in this area, I suppose not. But virus fitness is, I suppose, positively correlated with infectiousness and negatively with deadliness. So could we get a "benign" variant emerging as the cavalry over the hill as per you thesis? That would be welcome.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610
    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
    You’re missing the point. I’m asking how people can be in favour of a clumsy, ineffectual and damaging restriction affecting everyone ahead of a step that would have a much greater impact on transmission and affect only 10% of people who are many of them - not all - just being selfish Tristram Hunts.

    It seems to me to be ridiculous and inconsistent.
    For me then I think it would depend on how you are going to introduce compulsion.
    For which one?
    Being vaccinated. For example, if you introduced "compulsion" via a £100 tax penalty if you didn't get vaccinated then I would favour that ahead of totalitarian mass mask wearing with no end in sight.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Stocky said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
    I think you are wrong. Do x or go to prison (or even just pay a fine and get licence points) means x is compulsory. Not that you could fine or imprison for non vaccination, you just want soft compulsion by excluding people from anywhere they might want to go.
    Isn't that just making an act (refusing to be vaccinated) illegal which to my mind differs from compulsion?
    By that definition nothing is compulsory. Except for sectioning, arresting and imprisoning, we don't physically coerce people. It's compulsory to wear a seat belt, but no one is entitled to come along and strap you in to one.
  • It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I wish I could agree that it is amazing but I think that somewhere deep down I quietly expected it. The excellent vaccine performance was due to the appointment of a set of serious dedicated individuals who were given the ability to do whatever was necessary and did. Now I would credit Johnson with that one specific set of appointments and instructions. But nothing else. As soon as those people moved on - either voluntarily or otherwise - we have reverted to the normal governmental cluster that we have all come to know and love.

    I think if we were being honest most people would say they kind of expected this to happen at some point. It had a morbid inevitability.
    As you-know-who put it, you open the door of No 10 and look for ninjas, but there are no ninjas.

    Which is unfortunate, because you-know-who's Theory of Britain seems to boil down to getting out of the EU so that the ninjas can run things better.
  • We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

    How about a temporary lockdown of schools until the beginning of November?
    The cohorts being affected are young children and the unvaccinated

    We need to lay the blame for the delay to school children vaccinations squarely where it lies at the door of JCVI who wanted our vaccines used abroad and delayed the decision

    I just do not blame Boris, Sturgeon, Drakeford or NI for this and it is time JCVI were red carded

    I am also content with HMG not folding to the onslaught of the media with iSage reappearing all over the media and expect that by Christmas this outbreak of lockdown fever will be shown as ill-judged
    I was being facetious. Half-term is just starting so the schools will be closed.
    If the pattern from Nottinghamshire and Doncaster is repeated nationally then there will be a fall in new cases.

    Now they might rise again when schools return but by then millions more booster vaccination will be given and even more of the anti-vaxxers will be burned through.

    Hence the shrill desperation of those who always want ever more restrictions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,663
    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
    You’re missing the point. I’m asking how people can be in favour of a clumsy, ineffectual and damaging restriction affecting everyone ahead of a step that would have a much greater impact on transmission and affect only 10% of people who are many of them - not all - just being selfish Tristram Hunts.

    It seems to me to be ridiculous and inconsistent.
    For me then I think it would depend on how you are going to introduce compulsion.
    For which one?
    Being vaccinated. For example, if you introduced "compulsion" via a £100 tax penalty if you didn't get vaccinated then I would favour that ahead of totalitarian mass mask wearing with no end in sight.
    Well, my preferred solution was to charge them the cost of any Covid treatment, but I’m aware that didn’t find general favour :smile:

    A fine would seem to meet the case, although for the damage they’re doing I’d put it at £1000 - TV licence level. Or it could be made grounds for refusal of employment.

    I think that would suddenly see a lot of these antivax twats hurry down the jab centre.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,490
    On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

    Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Selebian said:

    Charles said:

    Great to see that the usual suspects on PB have smeared Rachel Reeves because they don't like her voice and that she is in possession of a pair of breasts. Important things like that which don't cast the posters in a bad light in any way, oh no no siree.

    Rachel Reeves is great. She’s smart, interesting, went to New College. All major pluses.

    But she lacks charisma, has a dreary voice and - important in the strange world of Labour politics - she’s a woman.

    She will never be PM
    As I say above, I don't agree about her voice. But you are probably right that she won't be PM as the Labour Party has an aversion to electing female leaders – probably a legacy of the macho trade union movement, if anything. It's saddening.
    Interesting thought - who are the missed out good female leaders of Labour in recent times? I'm struggling a bit, to be honest. Mind you, I'm also struggling on the missed out good male leaders of Labour!

    At one point, I might have said Cooper, but not after her leadership campaign. Maybe Nandy, jury still out on that for me. Flint, perhaps (it wasn't the right time for her, when she stood).
    I'm a big fan of Rosena, who is a medical doctor with an absolutely superb backstory but is probably far too feminine and pretty to be acceptable to the chauvinistic male-dominated unions. Also Reeves, as I say above. Flint could have been good. Cooper's leadership campaign was, admittedly, rubbish, but she would have been a very competent leader: she is highly intelligent and has a great cv*



    (*the PB Tories rapid-rebuttal engine will now release a stock "but HIPS" post, relating to a single policy measure from a generation ago that every normal person has long since forgotten about).
    I’d say the problem more with possible Labour female candidates as potential PMs - and will focus on the female ones given the thread - is that they tend to come from a certain background / path to politics that makes them unattractive to many voters: middle class backgrounds, into the public sector / political-leaning occupations post-university and then MPs.

    Their priority causes when it comes to advancing women also tend to be niches loved by a certain type of feminist but which are not really the priority of most eg “more women need to be on Boards / MPs”. It’s all weighted to the concerns of a certain type of well educated female minority.

    Also, they tend to come across - and note I say, come across, not that they are - as rather hectoring. Much as Mrs T did.

    Finally, because of Labour’s selection process and women-only candidate lists, it does mean that a fair few have not been properly vetted to see whether they are actually any good (same for the Tories increasingly TBH).


  • Am I right that the Greens now want to subsidise the carbon emissions of the rich and they want private renters (who tend to be young and poor) to pay for it ?

    Well it works for me but I don't see how this benefits the environment or reduces socioeconomic inequality.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Is it unlawful for police to demand proof of exemption?
    Yes. Disability discrimination because you would be treating them differently from somebody not exempt.

    A school in Tamworth got into a truly terrible tangle over this. I don’t think they’ll be trying to enforce mask wearing on the disabled daughter of a leading equalities lawyer again…
    Schools are one thing, but police?
    Here's a metaphor. Some medical conditions can make a person appear to be drunk. I would be surprised to learn that it was unlawful for a police officer to intervene in the case of someone appearing to be drunk entering a car and driving off. Of course, it'll be deeply annoying for the poor person who gets mistaken for a drunk driver, but surely the police can act step in and ask the question?

    I'm not saying your wrong on a point of law, I'm just double checking because I, a layman, find it surprising what you and Anabobazina are saying.
    Police were involved in that case, because it was at the school gates and got very heated. They very hurriedly backed down when the law was explained to them.

    You can download exemption certificates from gov.uk as well, if you wish - and there is no need to demonstrate you have a disability to do so - but you cannot be compelled to show them to anyone. Disability discrimination is still disability discriminatIon, doesn’t matter who does it.
    I'd like to see the High Court, as a minimum, have a look at that one. Traffic wardens can ask to see blue badges, the dhss or whatever it is now can ask disability benefits claimants to prove their case, etc.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610
    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
    You’re missing the point. I’m asking how people can be in favour of a clumsy, ineffectual and damaging restriction affecting everyone ahead of a step that would have a much greater impact on transmission and affect only 10% of people who are many of them - not all - just being selfish Tristram Hunts.

    It seems to me to be ridiculous and inconsistent.
    For me then I think it would depend on how you are going to introduce compulsion.
    For which one?
    Being vaccinated. For example, if you introduced "compulsion" via a £100 tax penalty if you didn't get vaccinated then I would favour that ahead of totalitarian mass mask wearing with no end in sight.
    Well, my preferred solution was to charge them the cost of any Covid treatment, but I’m aware that didn’t find general favour :smile:

    A fine would seem to meet the case, although for the damage they’re doing I’d put it at £1000 - TV licence level. Or it could be made grounds for refusal of employment.

    I think that would suddenly see a lot of these antivax twats hurry down the jab centre.
    I think they would become martyrs to their cause and refuse to pay the fine.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,028

    We've lost control of COVID and we're headed back for another lockdown.

    How about a temporary lockdown of schools until the beginning of November?
    The cohorts being affected are young children and the unvaccinated

    We need to lay the blame for the delay to school children vaccinations squarely where it lies at the door of JCVI who wanted our vaccines used abroad and delayed the decision

    I just do not blame Boris, Sturgeon, Drakeford or NI for this and it is time JCVI were red carded

    I am also content with HMG not folding to the onslaught of the media with iSage reappearing all over the media and expect that by Christmas this outbreak of lockdown fever will be shown as ill-judged
    I was being facetious. Half-term is just starting so the schools will be closed.
    If the pattern from Nottinghamshire and Doncaster is repeated nationally then there will be a fall in new cases.

    Now they might rise again when schools return but by then millions more booster vaccination will be given and even more of the anti-vaxxers will be burned through.

    Hence the shrill desperation of those who always want ever more restrictions.
    If its Doncaster then it is all Ed Milliband's fault :smile:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,663
    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
    You’re missing the point. I’m asking how people can be in favour of a clumsy, ineffectual and damaging restriction affecting everyone ahead of a step that would have a much greater impact on transmission and affect only 10% of people who are many of them - not all - just being selfish Tristram Hunts.

    It seems to me to be ridiculous and inconsistent.
    For me then I think it would depend on how you are going to introduce compulsion.
    For which one?
    Being vaccinated. For example, if you introduced "compulsion" via a £100 tax penalty if you didn't get vaccinated then I would favour that ahead of totalitarian mass mask wearing with no end in sight.
    Well, my preferred solution was to charge them the cost of any Covid treatment, but I’m aware that didn’t find general favour :smile:

    A fine would seem to meet the case, although for the damage they’re doing I’d put it at £1000 - TV licence level. Or it could be made grounds for refusal of employment.

    I think that would suddenly see a lot of these antivax twats hurry down the jab centre.
    I think they would become martyrs to their cause and refuse to pay the fine.
    Then give them twelve months.

    After all, they want to be perpetually locked up. And we want them out of the way. Win win.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,846

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I wish I could agree that it is amazing but I think that somewhere deep down I quietly expected it. The excellent vaccine performance was due to the appointment of a set of serious dedicated individuals who were given the ability to do whatever was necessary and did. Now I would credit Johnson with that one specific set of appointments and instructions. But nothing else. As soon as those people moved on - either voluntarily or otherwise - we have reverted to the normal governmental cluster that we have all come to know and love.

    I think if we were being honest most people would say they kind of expected this to happen at some point. It had a morbid inevitability.
    Hello Richard, hope you are doing well.

    You are one of the few Tories prepared to give an honest assessment of this Government's performance, with which I completely agree.
    Well,you would wouldn't you....
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,249

    I warned yet again months ago we were in trouble.

    Time to reinstate masks in all public places, encourage booster jabs and reintroduce orders to work from home. Time is running out.

    Yes. It’s obvious. Do it now, or it’s going to be too late. This useless government can’t even learn from its own mistakes.
    Do people seriously think the situation is in any way comparable to last October?

    Back then we were at the beginning of an exponential infection wave with an unvaccinated population, and we already had restrictions in place and lots of venues were closed before we had a full lockdown.

    A year later we've been fully open for months and the virus has been circulating among a population with a high level of immunity. In what way could things develop that would justify another lockdown?
    The conditions are ripe for developing another variant. The point is that the measures needed to get this under control are easy. If things spiral out of control then it’s much harder.
    Except the mutation space is crowded. A successful new variant needs to be more infectious than delta, and that’s hard. Eventually changes can occur that might allow that to happen, but at the expense of severity, and suddenly Covid becomes more like a cold.
    Delta Plus cases are increasing (a mutation of Delta) far too early yet to say if it is more transmissible yet or not but they are watching it closely.

    On masks I believe they should at the very least be reintroduced on all public transport outside of London.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question for all those in favour of compulsory mask wearing.

    Would you be in favour of compulsory vaccination? Given it would affect only around 10% of the population (as opposed to everyone not exempt*) and be about a thousand times more effective at reducing transmission.

    And if not, why not?

    *Again your reminder that it is unlawful to demand proof of exemption from mask wearing so in practice nobody has to wear one.

    Even if you wanted to, how could you compulsorily vaccinate in practice?

    Best that could be done is to give massive incentives for getting done (or penalties for not) but if you do this then it is still not compulsory is it. Even if you said "no jab by x date = prison" then it still wouldn't be compulsory because one would have to option to go to prison.

    Am I being pedantic?
    You’re missing the point. I’m asking how people can be in favour of a clumsy, ineffectual and damaging restriction affecting everyone ahead of a step that would have a much greater impact on transmission and affect only 10% of people who are many of them - not all - just being selfish Tristram Hunts.

    It seems to me to be ridiculous and inconsistent.
    For me then I think it would depend on how you are going to introduce compulsion.
    For which one?
    Being vaccinated. For example, if you introduced "compulsion" via a £100 tax penalty if you didn't get vaccinated then I would favour that ahead of totalitarian mass mask wearing with no end in sight.
    Well, my preferred solution was to charge them the cost of any Covid treatment, but I’m aware that didn’t find general favour :smile:

    A fine would seem to meet the case, although for the damage they’re doing I’d put it at £1000 - TV licence level. Or it could be made grounds for refusal of employment.

    I think that would suddenly see a lot of these antivax twats hurry down the jab centre.
    I think they would become martyrs to their cause and refuse to pay the fine.
    Then give them twelve months.

    After all, they want to be perpetually locked up. And we want them out of the way. Win win.
    Strung up, surely? Enough of your bleeding heart liberalism!
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

    Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

    All this Covid talk is boring. At the end of the day, we all die but we get there by different routes. But having our whole life / thoughts dominated by questions over variants, masks etc is boring as shit.

    How about this. Why don’t we open up some betting markets based on Covid outcomes, like with other markets?

    There would be so many potential betting opportunities. You could bet on cases per day, under / over a certain amount. Ditto hospitalisations, people on respirators and why not deaths. And you could do it for each country. Or have betting scenarios based on multiple countries (eg “will Italy or the U.K. have the highest number of cases per 100K of population).

    I mean, it’s the biggest event for the past two years and this is a betting website so why nor?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,663
    edited October 2021

    On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

    Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

    Five in every six people who are dying are unvaccinated. Plus they account for two thirds of hospitalisations despite being just one tenth of the adult population.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/4-charts-show-how-covid-vaccines-are-working-in-the-uk-.html

    ETA - a further reminder that we do need to learn to live with it because the only infectious disease we’ve ever eliminated entirely is smallpox. Covid after two jabs is not likely to be a serious illness.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,663
    MrEd said:

    On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

    Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

    All this Covid talk is boring. At the end of the day, we all die but we get there by different routes. But having our whole life / thoughts dominated by questions over variants, masks etc is boring as shit.

    How about this. Why don’t we open up some betting markets based on Covid outcomes, like with other markets?

    There would be so many potential betting opportunities. You could bet on cases per day, under / over a certain amount. Ditto hospitalisations, people on respirators and why not deaths. And you could do it for each country. Or have betting scenarios based on multiple countries (eg “will Italy or the U.K. have the highest number of cases per 100K of population).

    I mean, it’s the biggest event for the past two years and this is a betting website so why nor?
    We’ve already done that, it’s just nobody’s won the dead pool yet.

    Unless @Dura_Ace has confirmed a winner recently that I don’t know of.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,490
    ydoethur said:

    On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

    Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

    Five in every six people who are dying are unvaccinated. Plus they account for two thirds of hospitalisations despite being just one tenth of the adult population.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/4-charts-show-how-covid-vaccines-are-working-in-the-uk-.html

    ETA - a further reminder that we do need to learn to live with it because the only infectious disease we’ve ever eliminated entirely is smallpox. Covid after two jabs is not likely to be a serious illness.
    So one in every six people dying is vaccinated? I think you're agreeing with me, unless I'm missing something. It isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying.
  • On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

    Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

    Sick oldies are dying from covid plus some younger anti-vaxxers.

    It may sound callous but we have to be realistic - sick oldies die all the time. They did before covid , they have during covid and they will after covid.

    And the people in hospital ?

    Well this is from the Guardian today:

    Belgium’s coronavirus commissioner Pedro Falcon told a news conference that vaccines were able to prevent 70% of infections and 90% of hospital admissions, and the vast majority of people in hospital were unvaccinated.

    Belgium is a country with over 90% of its adults fully vaccinated yet the 'vast majority' of those currently hospitalised with covid are unvaccinated.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640

    This thread has won the dead pool

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,663

    ydoethur said:

    On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

    Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

    Five in every six people who are dying are unvaccinated. Plus they account for two thirds of hospitalisations despite being just one tenth of the adult population.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/4-charts-show-how-covid-vaccines-are-working-in-the-uk-.html

    ETA - a further reminder that we do need to learn to live with it because the only infectious disease we’ve ever eliminated entirely is smallpox. Covid after two jabs is not likely to be a serious illness.
    So one in every six people dying is vaccinated? I think you're agreeing with me, unless I'm missing something. It isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying.
    The point is that the overwhelming majority are from the tiny minority who are unvaccinated. And that is where the problem is occurring.

    Would we be having this conversation if hospitalisations were 60% lower and deaths 80% lower?

    Everyone who is vaccinated will die, because we all die. Some may die of complications from Covid if they get it. Or complications from the vaccine. Or indeed having a car crash on the way back from the vaccine centre.

    But it reduces the risk of death to a very low, pretty well negligible level.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,304
    ydoethur said:

    On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

    Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

    Five in every six people who are dying are unvaccinated. Plus they account for two thirds of hospitalisations despite being just one tenth of the adult population.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/4-charts-show-how-covid-vaccines-are-working-in-the-uk-.html

    ETA - a further reminder that we do need to learn to live with it because the only infectious disease we’ve ever eliminated entirely is smallpox. Covid after two jabs is not likely to be a serious illness.
    Blimey.
    Thought experiment. How would we be operating as a society if there had been no vaccines?
    Right now, with winter coming and those figures?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,663
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

    Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

    Five in every six people who are dying are unvaccinated. Plus they account for two thirds of hospitalisations despite being just one tenth of the adult population.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/4-charts-show-how-covid-vaccines-are-working-in-the-uk-.html

    ETA - a further reminder that we do need to learn to live with it because the only infectious disease we’ve ever eliminated entirely is smallpox. Covid after two jabs is not likely to be a serious illness.
    Blimey.
    Thought experiment. How would we be operating as a society if there had been no vaccines?
    Right now, with winter coming and those figures?
    We wouldn’t. But then, we would never have unlocked to start, so the premise is wrong.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,840
    ydoethur said:

    On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

    Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

    Five in every six people who are dying are unvaccinated. Plus they account for two thirds of hospitalisations despite being just one tenth of the adult population.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/4-charts-show-how-covid-vaccines-are-working-in-the-uk-.html
    I don't think your interpretation is correct. The "five in every six" figure - and also the "two thirds of hospitalisations" figure - is based on a rate per 100,000.

    That means you have to factor in the fact that only a small proportion is unvaccinated. If you do that, the vaccinated will be well ahead in both categories.
  • ydoethur said:

    On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

    Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

    Five in every six people who are dying are unvaccinated. Plus they account for two thirds of hospitalisations despite being just one tenth of the adult population.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/4-charts-show-how-covid-vaccines-are-working-in-the-uk-.html

    ETA - a further reminder that we do need to learn to live with it because the only infectious disease we’ve ever eliminated entirely is smallpox. Covid after two jabs is not likely to be a serious illness.
    Its very depressing that vaccines have given us a way of living with covid yet many would prefer to cower in their homes and think a worthless piece of cloth will protect them.

    Meanwhile the authoritarians and those who believe the UK should be a health service with a country attached are exploiting the frightened.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,992

    ydoethur said:

    On Covid, I'm not sure some people are looking at the same data as me. The dashboard shows a clear acceleration in both deaths and hospitalisations, which is clearly worrying. Given the lag between cases being identified and serious illness, the deaths and hospitalisation metrics are bound to get worse for at least the next month, even if cases do go down shortly. These are real people dying - 180 reported today, and the weekly average is moving up quite rapidly.

    Now hopefully people predicting a rapid fall in cases are right, and the other key metrics will then, after a lag, decline as well. But I do detect some complacency - a strong sense of deja vu from a year ago (and before anybody says it, yes I know vaccines are a game-changer; but it really isn't just the unvaccinated who are dying). Covid can't just be wished away, sadly. The 'herd immunity' that people on here have been saying for months is 'just around the corner' hasn't arrived. There may not be much we can do about it (I'm against further lockdowns), but those who say it's not a problem any more strike me as rather callous. Maybe we do have to live with it - but quite a lot of folk are still dying from it.

    Five in every six people who are dying are unvaccinated. Plus they account for two thirds of hospitalisations despite being just one tenth of the adult population.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/4-charts-show-how-covid-vaccines-are-working-in-the-uk-.html

    ETA - a further reminder that we do need to learn to live with it because the only infectious disease we’ve ever eliminated entirely is smallpox. Covid after two jabs is not likely to be a serious illness.
    Its very depressing that vaccines have given us a way of living with covid yet many would prefer to cower in their homes and think a worthless piece of cloth will protect them.

    Meanwhile the authoritarians and those who believe the UK should be a health service with a country attached are exploiting the frightened.
    Perhaps, just perhaps, they're not selfish sh*ts, and think that the piece of cloth might help protect others as well?

    I'm not cowering in my home. I've done a run every day so far this year, and feel perfectly happy to go into shops etc. But I still wear a mask where I feel it's appropriate.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,448
    New thread
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,080
    Professor Peston:

    I pointed out three months ago that daily dashboard infection figures don’t include anyone infected for a second time, and that I thought this unfortunate, because by definition it means those daily figures are not the whole Covid19 story. These daily figures…

    https://twitter.com/peston/status/1451605778947837968?s=21
This discussion has been closed.