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Punters bet on the 2021 reintroduction of Enlgand COVID restrictions – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,794

    Mr. F, it'd be interesting to see polling on whether, if numbers stayed as they are currently, how many want lockdowns, to stay as now, or the Satanic tyranny of vaccine passports.

    Vaccine passports are preferable to lockdown, no? In fact, they are the best way of avoiding lockdown. The unvaxxed have stay home or get a test. That’s not great but it’s better than closing down all of human society, again

    The fact someone intelligent like you can’t see this is depressing. The purity is insane

    Morocco has just banned flights from the UK. We’re going to be plague island once more
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507
    Sean_F said:

    Some people just love to suck the joy out of life.
    ... and hate freedom.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. Leon, if you believe they'd be temporary, I'd agree.

    I think there's sod all chance of them being temporary.

    Although it's always nice to be considered intelligent.

    Also worth remembering we've seen a lot of ups and downs. Today's 'good' country suffers more tomorrow.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    Leon said:

    You’re all laughing at HYUFD. Again. But he’s right on one thing.

    The men of violence have a veto on any massive constitutional change in NI - whether towards the UK or Eire. This is exactly why the UK/EU are already contorting themselves to avoid borders anywhere

    As long as this remains true, no one will want a border poll. This is likely to remain the case for decades

    Eventually I suspect NI will become some unique greyzone with ‘joint sovereignty’ so both sides can claim ‘victory’. It is already halfway there

    My personal favourite solution is the removal of the entire NI population to Israeli/Palestine

    Combined with the removal of the entire Israeli/Palestinian population to NI.

    Not sure why I find it such an attractive idea.....
  • Leon said:

    Vaccine passports are preferable to lockdown, no? In fact, they are the best way of avoiding lockdown. The unvaxxed have stay home or get a test. That’s not great but it’s better than closing down all of human society, again

    The fact someone intelligent like you can’t see this is depressing. The purity is insane

    Morocco has just banned flights from the UK. We’re going to be plague island once more
    There's nothing wrong with being plague island.

    We have enough herd immunity already to prevent exponential growth and the NHS collapsing. Now we need to fill in the gaps so that anyone unvaccinated becomes vaccinated via a more "natural" route as they've chosen to take.

    The sooner they get it the better. No locking down to save antivaxxers.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    We cannot have restrictions introduced because some people were stupid enough to choose not to have the vaccine over the last 10 months.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    kinabalu said:

    The film does deliver a good debate as to which is the very worst scene. My submission would be where the bloke is stood on Keira Knightley's doorstep holding up a series of soppy, overwrought proclamations of love on placards. Is that a homage to Dylan? Possibly, but I don't care if it is. It's very bad.
    Certainly a contender. Plus all scenes involving the little boy, and Bill Nighy. But basically all of it, although I guess Hugh Grant is good in his scenes, because he is Hugh Grant and is always good.
  • My personal favourite solution is the removal of the entire NI population to Israeli/Palestine

    Combined with the removal of the entire Israeli/Palestinian population to NI.

    Not sure why I find it such an attractive idea.....
    My favoured solution is Northern Irish Independence.

    Leaves the UK and doesn't join the Republic.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,153
    On @MaxPB 's earlier comments re: benefits and entitlement: the focus should be on the high rate of working poverty in the UK, rather than for those out of work, particular when compared with Scandinavian countries.

    The solution, mooted often here, is going to be a big reform to the earnings taper rate on UC and the marginal rate of tax. It's tricky though - UC serves to subsidise employers at the mo, and reducing the taper will not help. There is also the underlying problem of low productivity.

    On the NHS: this is a classic moral hazard problem. The optics of punishing those overweight (over 60% of us!) doesn't work. How easy would it be to provide a £100 per annum tax refund to those with BMI <25?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210

    I was going to post 'it could only happen in the new metaverse', but then I looked up what the metaverse was supposed to be. I got bored of it pretty quickly!
    Am I the only one who on hearing the announcement -

    - Wondered if Facebook is try to buy an old American aircraft carrier
    - Wondered if the Mafia are moving into pizza delivery.
    - Wondered if starting to practise kendo with a piece of rebar is a good idea
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,794

    Mr. Leon, if you believe they'd be temporary, I'd agree.

    I think there's sod all chance of them being temporary.

    Although it's always nice to be considered intelligent.

    Also worth remembering we've seen a lot of ups and downs. Today's 'good' country suffers more tomorrow.

    But if offered the choice now, between hard lockdown or vaxports, what do you choose? Vaxports of course. Lockdown is a much greater imposition on our freedoms and happiness.

    Idiots that oppose them on principle are idiots
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Leon said:

    Vaccine passports are preferable to lockdown, no? In fact, they are the best way of avoiding lockdown. The unvaxxed have stay home or get a test. That’s not great but it’s better than closing down all of human society, again

    The fact someone intelligent like you can’t see this is depressing. The purity is insane

    Morocco has just banned flights from the UK. We’re going to be plague island once more
    I would personally choose masks and lockdowns over ID cards and the biosurveillance state.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    kinabalu said:

    Peace in NI isn't a chip in Brexit negotiations. I'd hope Johnson & Frost realize this even if you don't. I expect they do and I imagine the EU do too. The issue will imo be sorted on the basis of the recent proposal. Checks but no checks. The ECJ stays, I think, but maybe this can be finessed in some way. It's there but it's not there. Constructive ambiguity, like the GFA, like the Protocol, like everything to do with NI - Irish and British, border, no border, in the SM, in the UK so not in the SM, all true at the same time, so long as it is positioned to catch the light in a certain way. Main thing - peace. It relies on people being pragmatic and at the same time high-minded. It relies on people NOT being literal, reductive, combative, sectarian.
    Well said, we can agree with each other occasionally :wink:
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    jonny83 said:

    49,139 positive COVID cases and a further 179 deaths in the latest 24-hour period

    This is where the usual suspects will insist that most or all of these are deaths "with covid" that would otherwise have happened anyway. Because an average of 1 in 1890 of the UK population, hugely skewed towards children, would expect to have 150+ deaths per day, wouldn't they?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210

    My favoured solution is Northern Irish Independence.

    Leaves the UK and doesn't join the Republic.
    Too sensible.

    I like my sensible solution to the Palestine thing - build more land.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited October 2021
    Which of the following Prime Ministers would you choose to have handled the Covid-19 outbreak?

    Margaret Thatcher - 29%
    Tony Blair - 14%
    Gordon Brown - 10%
    Boris Johnson- 9%
    Theresa May 4%
    David Cameron 3%
    John Major 3%
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1450843236474494977?s=20
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. Leon, I'd refuse both.

    The point of vaccination is to resume normal life, not as a pretext to impose social ostracism on those with the temerity to decline them.

    And yes, yes, I have been double-vaccinated and encourage others to do likewise. But the insanity we're seeing in Italy/France where, it seems, those without their papers are cut adrift from work and society is wholly unacceptable.

    Letting fear make you ready and willing to throw away the freedom to simply go about your business without presenting papers is not something I think conducive to good policy.

    There are also other steps that could be taken, such as resuming social distancing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,794

    Mr. Leon, I'd refuse both.

    The point of vaccination is to resume normal life, not as a pretext to impose social ostracism on those with the temerity to decline them.

    And yes, yes, I have been double-vaccinated and encourage others to do likewise. But the insanity we're seeing in Italy/France where, it seems, those without their papers are cut adrift from work and society is wholly unacceptable.

    Letting fear make you ready and willing to throw away the freedom to simply go about your business without presenting papers is not something I think conducive to good policy.

    There are also other steps that could be taken, such as resuming social distancing.

    But if the choice is forced on you. As it might be. Which?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,268
    edited October 2021

    My favoured solution is Northern Irish Independence.

    Leaves the UK and doesn't join the Republic.
    How about an auction? Metaverse might fancy buying their first country on the march to global domination?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    This is where the usual suspects will insist that most or all of these are deaths "with covid" that would otherwise have happened anyway. Because an average of 1 in 1890 of the UK population, hugely skewed towards children, would expect to have 150+ deaths per day, wouldn't they?
    By the way - apologies to all. I'm really cranky today, triggered by the massively delayed rollout of teen and booster jabs and the outcome of all the pressure from the antivaxxer loons and the way they were amplified by the denialists like Toby Young.

    Should probably step away from the computer for a while.
  • How about an auction? Metaverse might fancy buying their first country on the march to global domination?
    Works for me.

    We could offer Wales as well.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,794
    darkage said:

    I would personally choose masks and lockdowns over ID cards and the biosurveillance state.
    You’d rather we’re all locked at home going mad, as last winter, crippling the economy - again - as against having to show a QR code for 3 seconds at a doorway?

    And you all say HYUFD is nuts. Jeez Denise
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    This is where the usual suspects will insist that most or all of these are deaths "with covid" that would otherwise have happened anyway. Because an average of 1 in 1890 of the UK population, hugely skewed towards children, would expect to have 150+ deaths per day, wouldn't they?
    I reckon some deaths are with COVID, but the more interesting question is, how much life is being lost? We're all going to die at some point, but clearly COVID was taking years off some unlucky people's lives. It'd be interesting to know the average age of COVID deaths where the deceased was double vaccinated.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232

    This is where the usual suspects will insist that most or all of these are deaths "with covid" that would otherwise have happened anyway. Because an average of 1 in 1890 of the UK population, hugely skewed towards children, would expect to have 150+ deaths per day, wouldn't they?
    Some very simple sums show it isn't the case.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    edited October 2021
    DavidL said:

    Personally I would go for any and every scene that had Martine McCutcheon in it.
    Good call. There is quality in the film and that is the Emma Thompson story and character. Woman realizes her husband of many many years is cheating, which makes her feel sad and foolish and as if her life has been a joke. It's realistic and poignant, and seems to belong in a different movie.
  • I think there is a sitcom in this independent Antrim idea. So much to mine.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    This is where the usual suspects will insist that most or all of these are deaths "with covid" that would otherwise have happened anyway. Because an average of 1 in 1890 of the UK population, hugely skewed towards children, would expect to have 150+ deaths per day, wouldn't they?
    What are the excess deaths figures looking like at the moment.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. Leon, it isn't.

    Anyone advocating either a hard lockdown or vaccine passports right now is overreacting.

    Mr. Cooke, it's very easy to get het up because of the situation (significant health/economic consequences and the like).
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    adj - (of a creative work) referring to itself or to the conventions of its genre; self-referential.

    It's definitely the EU referring to itself and the conventions of its genre.
    Not come across that definition of meta before. Use it in relation to meta models, and meta level learning, or even meta language. But not seen it before in relation to art and creative works.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,794

    Mr. Leon, it isn't.

    Anyone advocating either a hard lockdown or vaccine passports right now is overreacting.

    Mr. Cooke, it's very easy to get het up because of the situation (significant health/economic consequences and the like).

    But which would you choose?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,502

    Mr. F, it'd be interesting to see polling on whether, if numbers stayed as they are currently, how many want lockdowns, to stay as now, or the Satanic tyranny of vaccine passports.

    I doubt if there would be much public support for a renewed lockdown, on current numbers. To get to the position we were in at the start of the year, in terms of deaths and hospitalisations, case numbers would have to be hitting 220,000 a day. Covid passports would be a lot more popular, I think.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    The UK is sticking to the NI Protocol.

    Article 16 is a valid part of the NI Protocol and as we've already established its conditions as written are quite clearly met.
    Lol. Your contortions sometimes. Simone Biles eat your heart out.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. F, I fear you might be right. They're still absolutely horrendous, though.

    It'd just grow, sinking its roots until we had our very own social credit system.

    Mr. Leon, I'd kill her, then have pizza and Margarita Shooters.
  • kinabalu said:

    Lol. Your contortions sometimes. Simone Biles eat your heart out.
    UK good, EU bad innit. oo oo oo
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,794
    Stereodog said:

    I'm not so sure. Lockdowns are such a huge measure that no one wants them to be permanent. My concern about vaccine passports is that they will drag on and become ever more comprehensive.
    Right. ‘Let’s go for a measure so draconian it sends people mad and cripples the economy, because it is so destructive it is unlikely to be prolonged, rather than doing something much less imposing, which will actually encourage to people to get vaccinated, and allow us to exit Covid quicker.’

    You’re all fucking batshit crazy
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210

    Mr. F, I fear you might be right. They're still absolutely horrendous, though.

    It'd just grow, sinking its roots until we had our very own social credit system.

    Mr. Leon, I'd kill her, then have pizza and Margarita Shooters.

    Already had the vaxport discussion with a progressive type. They were all in favour until I pointed out that illegal immigrants, with no papers....
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    edited October 2021
    Eabhal said:

    On @MaxPB 's earlier comments re: benefits and entitlement: the focus should be on the high rate of working poverty in the UK, rather than for those out of work, particular when compared with Scandinavian countries.

    The solution, mooted often here, is going to be a big reform to the earnings taper rate on UC and the marginal rate of tax. It's tricky though - UC serves to subsidise employers at the mo, and reducing the taper will not help. There is also the underlying problem of low productivity.

    On the NHS: this is a classic moral hazard problem. The optics of punishing those overweight (over 60% of us!) doesn't work. How easy would it be to provide a £100 per annum tax refund to those with BMI 25?

    That is indeed the problem with the UK system. It encourages bad behaviour - not by the low paid or unemployed but by business. Pay workers less than a living wage and expect the Government to make up the difference.

    In Norway the minimum wage is around £17 an hour for cleaning staff.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,794

    Mr. F, I fear you might be right. They're still absolutely horrendous, though.

    It'd just grow, sinking its roots until we had our very own social credit system.

    Mr. Leon, I'd kill her, then have pizza and Margarita Shooters.

    But which would you choose?
  • Basingstoke, however, did briefly have a DUP MP. (A Tory defector).
    Had to Google that. A fascinating case. Also led onto reading about the Monday Club. I wonder if HYUFD is a member...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Andy_JS said:

    What are the excess deaths figures looking like at the moment.
    From earlier...

    Week ending: COVID deaths, non-COVID deaths in excess of the five-year average

    09/07/2021: 183, 386
    16/07/2021: 218, 229
    23/07/2021: 327, 324
    30/07/2021: 404, 679
    06/08/2021: 527, 624
    13/08/2021: 571, 699
    20/08/2021: 570, 358
    27/08/2021: 668, 443
    03/09/2021: 659, -103 (bank holiday)
    10/09/2021: 857, 996 (after bank holiday)
    17/09/2021: 851, 852
    24/09/2021: 888, 532
    01/10/2021: 783, 350
    08/10/2021: 666, 586

    So overall we're running at around 1,200 extra deaths a week. Non-COVID excess deaths is around 500 a week.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Which of the following Prime Minister’s would you choose to have handled the Covid-19 outbreak?

    Margaret Thatcher - 29%
    Tony Blair - 14%
    Gordon Brown - 10%
    Boris Johnson- 9%


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1450843236474494977?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    Happy wife, happy life. That's my reason for watching Love Actually.

    Like David, I'll get around to The Wire one day.
    Sounds like you and me are in the same boat here, Philip. LA, yes, Wire, no. Interesting. Perhaps there really is "more that unites".
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Mr. Leon, I'd refuse both.

    The point of vaccination is to resume normal life, not as a pretext to impose social ostracism on those with the temerity to decline them.

    And yes, yes, I have been double-vaccinated and encourage others to do likewise. But the insanity we're seeing in Italy/France where, it seems, those without their papers are cut adrift from work and society is wholly unacceptable.

    Letting fear make you ready and willing to throw away the freedom to simply go about your business without presenting papers is not something I think conducive to good policy.

    There are also other steps that could be taken, such as resuming social distancing.

    I would personally go for WFH, some mask wearing and social distancing to try and reduce the spread. These things can all be easily adopted with negligible economic and social cost. Some people will carry on going to restaurants, bars etc and that is their choice; but the above measures would reduce the spread of the virus in the general population.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Pulpstar said:

    Some very simple sums show it isn't the case.
    Exactly. Yet some intelligent and mathematically adept people come out with the line, still.

    I did assume for a long while that the denialism was down to straightforward fear and inability to accept a painful reality.

    But a friend pointed out something else recently: a virus cannot be argued with, cannot be pressured, cannot be fired, cannot have public sentiment whipped up against it, cannot be voted out, and cannot be blamed.

    If you can decide that a person was responsible, then they can be argued with, pressured, fired, have public opinion whipped up against them, voted out, and certainly be blamed.

    There is therefore a big psychological draw to finding some way of blaming a person. If you accept that the virus is the key issue and that things like restrictions do the job - who can you blame? Who can you put pressure on? If it's the virus, it doesn't care. If, though, you can find a way to rationalise that it's NOT the virus but the Government/modellers/SAGE/other scientists and it was lockdown and restrictions that were the problem and not covid, then it's psychologically easier.

    I don't know how much truth there may be to that, but it did make me stop and think.
  • I think there is a sitcom in this independent Antrim idea. So much to mine.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rutland_Weekend_Television
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    Exactly. Yet some intelligent and mathematically adept people come out with the line, still.

    I did assume for a long while that the denialism was down to straightforward fear and inability to accept a painful reality.

    But a friend pointed out something else recently: a virus cannot be argued with, cannot be pressured, cannot be fired, cannot have public sentiment whipped up against it, cannot be voted out, and cannot be blamed.

    If you can decide that a person was responsible, then they can be argued with, pressured, fired, have public opinion whipped up against them, voted out, and certainly be blamed.

    There is therefore a big psychological draw to finding some way of blaming a person. If you accept that the virus is the key issue and that things like restrictions do the job - who can you blame? Who can you put pressure on? If it's the virus, it doesn't care. If, though, you can find a way to rationalise that it's NOT the virus but the Government/modellers/SAGE/other scientists and it was lockdown and restrictions that were the problem and not covid, then it's psychologically easier.

    I don't know how much truth there may be to that, but it did make me stop and think.
    Whilst I agree with you, I'd appreciate it if you'd acknowledge that vaccines have changed the game. Sure, deaths due to COVID among the vaccinated will be knocking off life, but it will be nowhere near the same as when we weren't vaccinated.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,794
    I’m at Luton Airport, en route to Alentejo for Dildo Knappers’ Gazette.

    It is noticeable how much warier EU-types are. They all wear masks. They presume they have to queue at bars to get a seat. They wait, patiently

    The ague-ridden Brits swan about. Hmm
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Exactly. Yet some intelligent and mathematically adept people come out with the line, still.

    I did assume for a long while that the denialism was down to straightforward fear and inability to accept a painful reality.

    But a friend pointed out something else recently: a virus cannot be argued with, cannot be pressured, cannot be fired, cannot have public sentiment whipped up against it, cannot be voted out, and cannot be blamed.

    If you can decide that a person was responsible, then they can be argued with, pressured, fired, have public opinion whipped up against them, voted out, and certainly be blamed.

    There is therefore a big psychological draw to finding some way of blaming a person. If you accept that the virus is the key issue and that things like restrictions do the job - who can you blame? Who can you put pressure on? If it's the virus, it doesn't care. If, though, you can find a way to rationalise that it's NOT the virus but the Government/modellers/SAGE/other scientists and it was lockdown and restrictions that were the problem and not covid, then it's psychologically easier.

    I don't know how much truth there may be to that, but it did make me stop and think.
    Would that not also apply to perception of antivaxxers?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247
    kinabalu said:

    Good call. There is quality in the film and that is the Emma Thompson story and character. Woman realizes her husband of many many years is cheating, which makes her feel sad and foolish and as if her life has been a joke. It's realistic and poignant, and seems to belong in a different movie.
    The film is just a series of male fantasies strung together.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247
    edited October 2021
    Leicester were 2 nil down then in 10 minutes Daka gets a hat trick. Crazy game!
  • Had to Google that. A fascinating case. Also led onto reading about the Monday Club. I wonder if HYUFD is a member...
    John Bercow was, of course, once a Monday Club member. And back in the day Wetherspoons had meal offer (get two for the price of one or whatever) which they called 'the Monday Club'. (I thought that a little problematic at the time.)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Regardless of how you view them otherwise, if you had to choose one British Prime Minister from the last forty years to have handled the Covid-19 outbreak, who would it have been?

    Blair leads among Labour voters (29%) but by nothing like Thatcher among Conservative voters (54%). Thatcher leads across all regions - including London & Scotland and among all ages 25+ - though in a statistical tie with Blair in 18-24 who mainly "don't know" (47).

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/10/20/5228e/1?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=daily_questions&utm_campaign=question_1
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    HYUFD said:

    In 2014 before Brexit Scotland voted 55% No to independence, 45% Yes. At the 2019 general election after the Brexit vote 55% of Scots did not vote SNP.

    In 2019 in NI after the Brexit vote and Boris' deal 43% of voters voted for Unionist parties and only 38% for Nationalist.

    So wrong, it made near zero difference
    You could have saved yourself some typing and simply conceded my last sentence, which most readers will see is what you have done….
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320

    I think there is a sitcom in this independent Antrim idea. So much to mine.

    Orange All Hours
    Only Fools and Unionists
    One Foot in the Parade
    etc.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited October 2021
    Foxy said:

    Leicester were 2 nil down then in 10 minutes Daka gets a hat trick. Crazy game!

    He gets a green bean?

    Ah!! Now it's corrected from haricot to hat trick. Thought it was yet another British expression that I had not come across. "To get a haricot"
  • What a happy place
    It isn't a place. It is a supranational body comprising 27 sovereign nations. Even if it were a place, I am not sure "it" is less happy than a country that chose to leave it by a few percentage points and where the population now thinks by majority that the decision was a mistake; a country where we crowed about how Brexit made us better at delivering vaccines and now we are behind; a country that will continue to have shortages and problems with supply chains that the continentals will laugh at us about. Yep, that happy "place".
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Regardless of how you view them otherwise, if you had to choose one British Prime Minister from the last forty years to have handled the Covid-19 outbreak, who would it have been?

    Blair leads among Labour voters (29%) but by nothing like Thatcher among Conservative voters (54%). Thatcher leads across all regions - including London & Scotland and among all ages 25+ - though in a statistical tie with Blair in 18-24 who mainly "don't know" (47).

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/10/20/5228e/1?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=daily_questions&utm_campaign=question_1

    Blair or Thatcher would be my choices. Wouldn't mind which.
  • Foxy said:

    The film is just a series of male fantasies strung together.
    Male fantasies?

    I always thought it was a bit of a chick flick.

    Certainly MrsT likes it more than I do.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    Which of the following Prime Minister’s would you choose to have handled the Covid-19 outbreak?

    Margaret Thatcher - 29%
    Tony Blair - 14%
    Gordon Brown - 10%
    Boris Johnson- 9%


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1450843236474494977?s=20

    A minor apostrophe alert, but mainly to point out that the actual choice, had we but known what this was going to be about, was between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Prime Minister Piers Corbyn's brother. Cometh the hour......

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    Sandpit said:

    Well said, we can agree with each other occasionally :wink:
    Cheers thanks. Yes, it's not forbidden.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Dura_Ace said:

    Orange All Hours
    Only Fools and Unionists
    One Foot in the Parade
    etc.
    Flandrian Park. (One does need to be a geologist or zoologist to get that one, I'm afraid.)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,502

    John Bercow was, of course, once a Monday Club member. And back in the day Wetherspoons had meal offer (get two for the price of one or whatever) which they called 'the Monday Club'. (I thought that a little problematic at the time.)
    He was even secretary of the Immigration and Repatriation Committee.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    tlg86 said:

    Whilst I agree with you, I'd appreciate it if you'd acknowledge that vaccines have changed the game. Sure, deaths due to COVID among the vaccinated will be knocking off life, but it will be nowhere near the same as when we weren't vaccinated.
    Oh, absolutely. We'd be in a very different place without them.

    We're looking at covid being maybe 2-3 times as deadly as influenza for all ages for those vaccinated (versus 20-30x for the unvaccinated). It still causes a significant problem because when it's rampant, it would also end up infecting the majority of the population and doing so in a few months (vice about a quarter to a third for an influenza outbreak).

    So, with the vaxxed, we're looking at a situation about 5-10x as bad as a bad seasonal influenza outbreak. Which can cause considerable damage and unacceptable pressure on hospitals - but in comparison to last year, it's not even in the same league, let alone division.

    Add to that the data from the booster shots looking like they reduce danger/deadliness by over a further factor of ten, and when the booster rollout is done, we're done.

    As it stands, thanks to the vaccines, we actually only need to reduce R by about 20% to hit stability until the booster rollout is done. Could have been done by vaxxing all the teens (and should have been done by now).

    Or maybe masking and encouraging WFH until the booster programme is out might be enough. Certainly no need for a hard lockdown, in my considered opinion.

    Absolute worst-case I can see would be a 4-5 week return to Step 3 of the roadmap, but I suspect the masks/WFH would probably do the trick. It'll take us 4-5 weeks to see the benefit of a much accelerated teen jabs/booster jabs programme, so that should see us emerge from it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    edited October 2021
    tlg86 said:

    From earlier...

    Week ending: COVID deaths, non-COVID deaths in excess of the five-year average

    09/07/2021: 183, 386
    16/07/2021: 218, 229
    23/07/2021: 327, 324
    30/07/2021: 404, 679
    06/08/2021: 527, 624
    13/08/2021: 571, 699
    20/08/2021: 570, 358
    27/08/2021: 668, 443
    03/09/2021: 659, -103 (bank holiday)
    10/09/2021: 857, 996 (after bank holiday)
    17/09/2021: 851, 852
    24/09/2021: 888, 532
    01/10/2021: 783, 350
    08/10/2021: 666, 586

    So overall we're running at around 1,200 extra deaths a week. Non-COVID excess deaths is around 500 a week.
    Excess death stats are good, but they're a bit hazy anyway as the random variation in a single week must be significant when compared to a 5 year average of that particular week.

    One thing with no restrictions (hopefully) this winter, deaths from other viruses which were crushed by lockdown (Mainly flu) should return to their normal levels. Though again flu can be very random.
    Excess deaths is a good metric, but not for cherry picking any particular week I think.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Blair or Thatcher would be my choices. Wouldn't mind which.
    Much as I am a fan, I don't think she would have approved furlough, which would have been very bad indeed.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,596
    Leon said:

    I’m at Luton Airport, en route to Alentejo for Dildo Knappers’ Gazette.

    It is noticeable how much warier EU-types are. They all wear masks. They presume they have to queue at bars to get a seat. They wait, patiently

    The ague-ridden Brits swan about. Hmm

    Yes I've been in Andalusia for the last week. You have to wear masks in shops and on public transport (well-respected) and in bars and restaurants except when seated (slightly less well respected). However 50% of Spaniards seem to be wearing them all the time, even outdoors, and often restaurants and bars are empty with everyone on the patio (although that might be the time of year, it is actually cool enough to sit outside at the moment).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247
    tlg86 said:

    From earlier...

    Week ending: COVID deaths, non-COVID deaths in excess of the five-year average

    09/07/2021: 183, 386
    16/07/2021: 218, 229
    23/07/2021: 327, 324
    30/07/2021: 404, 679
    06/08/2021: 527, 624
    13/08/2021: 571, 699
    20/08/2021: 570, 358
    27/08/2021: 668, 443
    03/09/2021: 659, -103 (bank holiday)
    10/09/2021: 857, 996 (after bank holiday)
    17/09/2021: 851, 852
    24/09/2021: 888, 532
    01/10/2021: 783, 350
    08/10/2021: 666, 586

    So overall we're running at around 1,200 extra deaths a week. Non-COVID excess deaths is around 500 a week.
    Non covid deaths how defined? Are those dying more than 28 days post test included?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Dura_Ace said:

    Orange All Hours
    Only Fools and Unionists
    One Foot in the Parade
    etc.
    Orange is the new Orange.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Andy_JS said:

    Blair or Thatcher would be my choices. Wouldn't mind which.
    I think Thatcher for this - (and only this, the rest is 40 years out of date) - HIV/AIDS showed she wasn't afraid of making unpopular choices and wasn't much fussed who she upset - Blair is a superlative communicator but I fear wants to be liked a little too much (though nothing like as much as the current incumbent).
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Carnyx said:

    Would that not also apply to perception of antivaxxers?
    Yes, thus the overlap between them (albeit there are quite a few who don't ascribe to the antivaxxer lunacy but point correctly to the vaccines being the way out). I don't know if I mentioned it here, but I've got my own hypothesis about antivaxxing: a big component is that it's an injection.

    Not only is there the "Ow, I don't like needles" impulse (and we've all got that deep down; it's very easy to rationalise something around it), but the perception that something injected is a far larger and more significant medical thing than something inhaled, which is more significant than a pill to be taken. Despite the fact that pills can really be just as bad, if not worse.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    Which of the following Prime Minister’s would you choose to have handled the Covid-19 outbreak?

    Margaret Thatcher - 29%
    Tony Blair - 14%
    Gordon Brown - 10%
    Boris Johnson- 9%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1450843236474494977?s=20

    Brown is too low there. He should be top on this one. Look how he coordinated the global response to the bank crash. The GLOBAL response, note.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    First 'traitor' of the day.
    Will it be the last?!
    Ooh. Can I be added to the list.
    Nothing to celebrate about the creation of a nasty little statelet which proceeded to oppress its Catholic citizens.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    My favoured solution is Northern Irish Independence.

    Leaves the UK and doesn't join the Republic.
    This is a perfectly decent solution, which would give space for consideration of sensible questions about the future, and allow for NI politicians to learn grown up politics. A united Ireland would remain a future option. The status quo is an unstable farrago of nonsense.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Foxy said:

    Non covid deaths how defined? Are those dying more than 28 days post test included?
    These are from the ONS weekly deaths:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/8october2021

    I think it's where COVID is mentioned on the death certificate.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    tlg86 said:

    I reckon some deaths are with COVID, but the more interesting question is, how much life is being lost? We're all going to die at some point, but clearly COVID was taking years off some unlucky people's lives. It'd be interesting to know the average age of COVID deaths where the deceased was double vaccinated.
    Yes they really ought to let us know what the average age is that people are dying from/with Covid 19, and also what the average number of years lost is.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,676
    darkage said:

    I would personally go for WFH, some mask wearing and social distancing to try and reduce the spread. These things can all be easily adopted with negligible economic and social cost. Some people will carry on going to restaurants, bars etc and that is their choice; but the above measures would reduce the spread of the virus in the general population.
    Yes, that's the sort of thing I'd support - I know that compared with some here I seem like a mad lockdowner, but what I'm really after is ways to limit the spread without either behaving as though the pandemic didn't exist or going into hermitry (because the effect of the former is to bring about the latter).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Pulpstar said:

    Excess death stats are good, but they're a bit hazy anyway as the random variation in a single week must be significant when compared to a 5 year average of that particular week.

    One thing with no restrictions (hopefully) this winter, deaths from other viruses which were crushed by lockdown (Mainly flu) should return to their normal levels. Though again flu can be very random.
    Excess deaths is a good metric, but not for cherry picking any particular week I think.
    Err, you'll notice I've posted 14 weeks worth of data.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    Carnyx said:

    Flandrian Park. (One does need to be a geologist or zoologist to get that one, I'm afraid.)
    Passport To Portadown
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357
    Andy_JS said:

    Yes they really ought to let us know what the average age is that people are dying from/with Covid 19, and also what the average number of years lost is.
    The data about deaths vs. age are on the NHS website: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    I think having skipped last winter, we're going to have a bad winter at some point. Perhaps we should try to avoid it this winter, but at some point we're going to have to pay the price for what we did in 2019-20.
  • Yes, that's the sort of thing I'd support - I know that compared with some here I seem like a mad lockdowner, but what I'm really after is ways to limit the spread without either behaving as though the pandemic didn't exist or going into hermitry (because the effect of the former is to bring about the latter).
    We already have some wfh, some mask wearing and some social distancing. So what is it you are changing? What is the governments role? Would you actually enforce some new rules?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,794
    Ooh. I’m going to Odessa
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    edited October 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Err, you'll notice I've posted 14 weeks worth of data.
    Yes, but I looked a bit further back - we had negative excess deaths over the summer !
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Yes, thus the overlap between them (albeit there are quite a few who don't ascribe to the antivaxxer lunacy but point correctly to the vaccines being the way out). I don't know if I mentioned it here, but I've got my own hypothesis about antivaxxing: a big component is that it's an injection.

    Not only is there the "Ow, I don't like needles" impulse (and we've all got that deep down; it's very easy to rationalise something around it), but the perception that something injected is a far larger and more significant medical thing than something inhaled, which is more significant than a pill to be taken. Despite the fact that pills can really be just as bad, if not worse.
    Interesting thought. I wonder if there is any correlation with being a counterculture type, the druggie demographic so to speak (other than alcohol and tobacco etc), who instinctively fear injection for obvious reasons (overdoses, HIV, hepatitis, scarring ...). Or indeed a grown up version of that. By contrast, my experience of injections is solely medical and therefore benign.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247
    tlg86 said:

    These are from the ONS weekly deaths:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/8october2021

    I think it's where COVID is mentioned on the death certificate.
    If it is ONS then that would be death certificates.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Ooh. Can I be added to the list.
    Nothing to celebrate about the creation of a nasty little statelet which proceeded to oppress its Catholic citizens.
    Yep I would happily join that roll of honour as well. Being a 'traitor' to HYUFD's nightmare future seems the only sane position to take.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Orange All Hours
    Only Fools and Unionists
    One Foot in the Parade
    etc.
    The Loneliness of the long distance wummer
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,794
    kinabalu said:

    Brown is too low there. He should be top on this one. Look how he coordinated the global response to the bank crash. The GLOBAL response, note.
    Hahahaha

    HAHAHA
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    FWIW,

    COVID numbers look bad at the moment, Its depressing and I understand the calls for Lockdown/passports or other restrictions, But:

    Ironic as this sounds numbers are so high that they cant stay this high for long. in particular I am taking about 10-14 Year olds. in the Office for nautical statistics weekly COVID servery, where they go out and test a random group of people across age range and geography to get an pitcher of what is actually happening, in the last week, which is the week ending 9 October, 8.1% of 10-14 Year olds had COVID, 8.1% that's not a typo, link here:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/15october2021

    scroll down to fig 4.

    At that rate 12 weeks and 3 days and the whole cohort while have had it, and if you are interested 12 weeks and 3 days means 28th December. but its not going to be like that for 4 reasons:

    1) That rate will not hold steady for 12 weeks, its already gone up, which brings that date forward,

    2) Many many kids have already had it which again brings it forward.

    3) The dammed delayed Vaccine roll out for dins is at last happening if terribly showily, it will again bring it forward.

    4) We will never get to 100% 99% maybe, but not quite 100%

    The last 2 of those are pretty small, but the first 2 will have a big effect. so when will be get to the HIT, I don't know, but maybe soon, if 8.1% had it week ending 9 October, and last week was more than that, and this week seems to be even larger then a quarter of all that age group have had it in 3 weeks, maybe more than a quarter. we could have gone form 50& to 80%.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    BREAKING
    UK govt has bought 730k doses of covid antiviral drugs molnupiravir and PF-07321332/ritonavir to administer to vulnerable people and keep them out of hospital.

    Neither drug approved yet but NHS hoping to deploy them this winter.
    Story @theipaper


    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1450854988377382917?s=20
  • kinabalu said:

    Brown is too low there. He should be top on this one. Look how he coordinated the global response to the bank crash. The GLOBAL response, note.
    He'd have struggled with selling it to a sceptical nation though.
    What you really want is a League if National Heroes-

    Thatch for the science and being decisive.
    Major for humanity and concern for the struggling.
    Blair for the motivational speeches.
    Brown for the money.
    Cameron for tucking the nation up and making them feel safe.
    May for the rules.

    Johnson can go and do some colouring in or something.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    edited October 2021
    darkage said:

    I would personally go for WFH, some mask wearing and social distancing to try and reduce the spread. These things can all be easily adopted with negligible economic and social cost. Some people will carry on going to restaurants, bars etc and that is their choice; but the above measures would reduce the spread of the virus in the general population.
    That is 'Plan B'. This "vaccine passports" thing is getting undue focus from both ends imo. It's neither the solution to living with covid nor some slippery slope to a gestapo society. I'm against fwiw, it fails the cost/benefit test unless done properly and we wouldn't do it properly.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357

    He'd have struggled with selling it to a sceptical nation though.
    What you really want is a League if National Heroes-

    Thatch for the science and being decisive.
    Major for humanity and concern for the struggling.
    Blair for the motivational speeches.
    Brown for the money.
    Cameron for tucking the nation up and making them feel safe.
    May for the rules.

    Johnson can go and do some colouring in or something.
    Wasn't there famously no money left at the end of Brown's premiership?
  • kinabalu said:

    Brown is too low there. He should be top on this one. Look how he coordinated the global response to the bank crash. The GLOBAL response, note.
    LMAO you misunderstood the question.

    The question was who would be best placed to handle the outbreak. Not who would be best placed to CAUSE the outbreak.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Andy_JS said:

    Yes they really ought to let us know what the average age is that people are dying from/with Covid 19, and also what the average number of years lost is.
    And the distribution of them.

    After all, if we just look at averages, the average age of those affected by lockdown in the UK was 39.
    This doesn't mean that children and teens were unaffected by lockdown, even though the average age of everyone alive in the UK was 39.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Had a wisdom tooth out earlier today.

    Mouth still hurts like hell.

    Feeling very sorry for myself.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,676
    edited October 2021

    That is indeed the problem with the UK system. It encourages bad behaviour - not by the low paid or unemployed but by business. Pay workers less than a living wage and expect the Government to make up the difference.

    In Norway the minimum wage is around £17 an hour for cleaning staff.
    I was involved when Brown introduced working tax credits, the predecessor to that part of UC. The argument for them is this. Say you're unemployed and your skill levels are low, so you're getting £X a week in JSA and no employer really wants you at minimum wage level £Y. Why not give the employer something like £X towards employing you for a while? The cost to the taxpayer is zero as they'd otherwise pay you £X to do nothing. The business is delighted to get you for a mere £Y-£X. And you're getting £Y-£X more per week, and you're back in the workforce, used to the habit of working regularly again and with luck learning new skills.

    In the long term, we'd like employers to create jobs for lower-skilled staff with higher wages, as in Norway, and the market will tend to nudge that along, as we're seeing with some unpopular jobs now, from care workers to parking wardens to lorry drivers. But in the short term, to get people off UC, there's a good case for it - and it does require a generous taper to be attractive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Cyclefree said:

    Ooh. Can I be added to the list.
    Nothing to celebrate about the creation of a nasty little statelet which proceeded to oppress its Catholic citizens.
    Well no surprise there then, you would probably have given the Falklands away free to Argentina in 1982 too
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    BigRich said:

    FWIW,

    COVID numbers look bad at the moment, Its depressing and I understand the calls for Lockdown/passports or other restrictions, But:

    Ironic as this sounds numbers are so high that they cant stay this high for long. in particular I am taking about 10-14 Year olds. in the Office for nautical statistics weekly COVID servery, where they go out and test a random group of people across age range and geography to get an pitcher of what is actually happening, in the last week, which is the week ending 9 October, 8.1% of 10-14 Year olds had COVID, 8.1% that's not a typo, link here:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/15october2021

    scroll down to fig 4.

    At that rate 12 weeks and 3 days and the whole cohort while have had it, and if you are interested 12 weeks and 3 days means 28th December. but its not going to be like that for 4 reasons:

    1) That rate will not hold steady for 12 weeks, its already gone up, which brings that date forward,

    2) Many many kids have already had it which again brings it forward.

    3) The dammed delayed Vaccine roll out for dins is at last happening if terribly showily, it will again bring it forward.

    4) We will never get to 100% 99% maybe, but not quite 100%

    The last 2 of those are pretty small, but the first 2 will have a big effect. so when will be get to the HIT, I don't know, but maybe soon, if 8.1% had it week ending 9 October, and last week was more than that, and this week seems to be even larger then a quarter of all that age group have had it in 3 weeks, maybe more than a quarter. we could have gone form 50& to 80%.

    I figure, from the unsophisticated method of taking the ONS surveys and adding up the estimated fraction that were catching it every day (and scaling for the pre-ONS survey days by using hospitalisations as a metric for infections on the assumption that the infection hospitality rate would have been quite similar throughout the first six months or so) that 50%-70% of 11-17s have to have had the virus already.

    If they have it for an average of about 11 days, and the rate has continued to increase, we're probably pretty close to that number ticking up by 1% per day at the moment.
This discussion has been closed.