Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Punters bet on the 2021 reintroduction of Enlgand COVID restrictions – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 20 in General
imagePunters bet on the 2021 reintroduction of Enlgand COVID restrictions – politicalbetting.com

“I don’t see any cause for changing the course at this minute”On #BBCBreakfast Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng says Covid is virus we are ‘learning to live with’. https://t.co/IAta5i4GyN pic.twitter.com/Z6potAzVSy

Read the full story here

«1345678

Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,834
    First, not like the next lockdown.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,676
    Isn't this the dodgy market that settles on yes if care home staff have to be vaccinated, or something?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,746
    edited October 20
    Third.

    Like Doggie Doos with an H.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 927
    Almost inevitable I would say. Either going to be a crisis in the NHS that prompts it, or the inevitable new variant. They haven't exactly been telling people to "be careful" or "take responsibility", which is going to make it harder to justify new restrictions.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,602
    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,889
    Interesting.

    I think people have their own red lines (masks on public transport, wfh, say) and will tolerate restrictions up until that red line is crossed.

    If we are demonstrably shown to be worse than the EU in outcomes for example and by this I mean a stick which can be used to beat the government, then I would expect the most vociferous opposition to come from intra-Tory party rather than the Opposition who, AFAICS, would like immediate and severe restrictions.

    Once more we look to Steve Baker, of all people, to protect our freedoms (and sanity).
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,261
    Next week could be difficult for the government.

    Wed: Rishi puts up taxes
    Thur: Boris announces Plan B applies from 1 Nov
  • darkage said:

    Almost inevitable I would say. Either going to be a crisis in the NHS that prompts it, or the inevitable new variant. They haven't exactly been telling people to "be careful" or "take responsibility", which is going to make it harder to justify new restrictions.

    A new vaccine evading variant would be the reason to enter lockdown

    Mandating mask wearing and covid passports will be resisted as the vaccine is the huge difference when comparing last year to this
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,173
    darkage said:

    Almost inevitable I would say. Either going to be a crisis in the NHS that prompts it, or the inevitable new variant. They haven't exactly been telling people to "be careful" or "take responsibility", which is going to make it harder to justify new restrictions.

    There have been a lot of infections since Delta came along and no new variant. Delta might be an evolutionary endpoint for the virus. As optimised as it can get.

    I think it's hard to see how the number of Covid patients will quadruple from here, to rival the peak of last winter, so I think they will resist new restrictions.

    But it will mean that the NHS falls several more months behind.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481
    "In spite of ministers" saying there won't be further restrictions.

    :lol:

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,752
    Lockdown would require reintroduction of furlough and that is not going to happen, ergo no lockdown. I think the most we'll see is mandatory masks in some indoor settings and vaccine passports for indoor socialising. More than that and it starts to cost money and Rishi has made it pretty clear that no more money is available for this.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,668
    edited October 20

    Next week could be difficult for the government.

    Wed: Rishi puts up taxes
    Thur: Boris announces Plan B applies from 1 Nov

    Plan B is a Not Happening Event unless killer variant Omega appears.

    The latest curve is already flattening. It has been made to look worse by the testing cock ups.

    No looks serious value, depending on the exact criteria. Do (minimal) Covid restrictions brought in to counteract Flu count?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,164

    darkage said:

    Almost inevitable I would say. Either going to be a crisis in the NHS that prompts it, or the inevitable new variant. They haven't exactly been telling people to "be careful" or "take responsibility", which is going to make it harder to justify new restrictions.

    There have been a lot of infections since Delta came along and no new variant. Delta might be an evolutionary endpoint for the virus. As optimised as it can get.

    (Snip)
    From yesterday:
    "Covid-19: New mutation of Delta variant under close watch in UK"
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58965650

    This doesn't mean this new AY.4.2 is a big threat. But Covid has smacked us in the face before, after we thought we were through the worst. The little bu&&er may do so again, through this or another variant.

    Politicians' toolkits are rather sparse in tackling this. There's vaccinations, masks, and various degrees of lockdown. They often have to react to the circumstances, not lead them.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,478

    darkage said:

    Almost inevitable I would say. Either going to be a crisis in the NHS that prompts it, or the inevitable new variant. They haven't exactly been telling people to "be careful" or "take responsibility", which is going to make it harder to justify new restrictions.

    There have been a lot of infections since Delta came along and no new variant. Delta might be an evolutionary endpoint for the virus. As optimised as it can get.

    I think it's hard to see how the number of Covid patients will quadruple from here, to rival the peak of last winter, so I think they will resist new restrictions.

    But it will mean that the NHS falls several more months behind.
    There are off course lots of different versions of delta too - there was information about a different lineage that is about 6% of delta cases in the UK. Delta being so infectious means its hard for other variants to get a hold, hence its complete dominance in the UK. Where diseases can go is to get even more infectious, but at the expense of being less severe, and this has probably happened to a lot of the viruses that are endemic now. Initially severe illness causing, with time and increased population exposure they become much milder.

    Interesting on the radio this morning to hear that most people in hospital and ICU with covid are unvaccinated. I would be announcing this every hour on the hour, every news bulletin. I would have images of people who were unvaccinated and died of covid. The vaccine is there, get it, don't die of covid.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,889
    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Mate it has been a feature of this government during this pandemic that it has been bolted on that when a govt minister goes out on the airwaves at 8am saying this will/won't happen, sure as eggs is eggs by later that day it is announced that it won't/will happen.

    At one point it was comical how predictable this process was. Why is KK so different?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,889
    edited October 20
    MaxPB said:

    Lockdown would require reintroduction of furlough and that is not going to happen, ergo no lockdown. I think the most we'll see is mandatory masks in some indoor settings and vaccine passports for indoor socialising. More than that and it starts to cost money and Rishi has made it pretty clear that no more money is available for this.

    Yep it's follow the money. While I had my views about mandatory closing of everything previously, what wouldn't have changed is the compensation element to it and if the State says that Shop A or Pub B must close then the State must pay accordingly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,389
    Kwasi Kwarteng is of course absolutely right. While cases may be rising death rates are still far below where they were in January after most people have been double vaccinated.

    There may be an argument for mandatory vaccine passports for clubs and large events and compulsory facemasks in crowded areas if cases continue to rise. There is no case at all for another lockdown
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,852

    darkage said:

    Almost inevitable I would say. Either going to be a crisis in the NHS that prompts it, or the inevitable new variant. They haven't exactly been telling people to "be careful" or "take responsibility", which is going to make it harder to justify new restrictions.

    There have been a lot of infections since Delta came along and no new variant. Delta might be an evolutionary endpoint for the virus. As optimised as it can get.

    I think it's hard to see how the number of Covid patients will quadruple from here, to rival the peak of last winter, so I think they will resist new restrictions.

    But it will mean that the NHS falls several more months behind.
    There are off course lots of different versions of delta too - there was information about a different lineage that is about 6% of delta cases in the UK. Delta being so infectious means its hard for other variants to get a hold, hence its complete dominance in the UK. Where diseases can go is to get even more infectious, but at the expense of being less severe, and this has probably happened to a lot of the viruses that are endemic now. Initially severe illness causing, with time and increased population exposure they become much milder.

    Interesting on the radio this morning to hear that most people in hospital and ICU with covid are unvaccinated. I would be announcing this every hour on the hour, every news bulletin. I would have images of people who were unvaccinated and died of covid. The vaccine is there, get it, don't die of covid.
    If that's so then we either run out of anti-vaxxers to go to hospital or we stop anti-vaxxers being treated in hospital.

    Because anti-vaxxers are going to get infected.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,602
    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Mate it has been a feature of this government during this pandemic that it has been bolted on that when a govt minister goes out on the airwaves at 8am saying this will/won't happen, sure as eggs is eggs by later that day it is announced that it won't/will happen.

    At one point it was comical how predictable this process was. Why is KK so different?
    Time is ticking, late oct already. Chance they will save Christmas and pile on, too late, in the New Year.

    8% is 23/2. it would be great if this could routinely be stated if we are going to implied odds for threader headlines, as seems to be happening.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,128
    MaxPB said:

    Lockdown would require reintroduction of furlough and that is not going to happen, ergo no lockdown. I think the most we'll see is mandatory masks in some indoor settings and vaccine passports for indoor socialising. More than that and it starts to cost money and Rishi has made it pretty clear that no more money is available for this.

    I tend to agree there won't be a lockdown, but bringing in very low-cost/no-cost restrictions that reduce spread of a deadly disease seems a complete no-brainer. Probably once again the govt will wait too long and do too little.

    As I understand it, European countries have managed to keep cases much lower through moderate restrictions + vaccination. So I'm hopeful lockdown won't be needed, but obviously not great to go into Winter close to our previous peak of cases. 43k cases reported yesterday vs. 19k this time last year.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,944
    edited October 20
    Absolutely nobody wants another lockdown if it can be avoided. But the Covid situation is worsening. If it were just a matter of people who refused vaccinations without reason getting ill and dying, I'd say tough. But it isn't: clearly some people who are fully vaxxed are getting very ill and dying, and the government is being rather coy on the numbers.

    So how to avoid lockdown of any sort? Government messaging has become really poor, and it would help if they got their act together. Maybe reinstate a weekly press conference until numbers/hospitalisations/decline, combined with mass information/advertising campaigns.

    What should government messaging consist of? I'd suggest:

    If you want to avoid further restrictive measures, get vaccinated, however old you are (young children excepted).
    If you haven't had your booster jab, why not? It may save your life.
    The virus is spreading particularly virulently in poorly-ventilated, confine spaces. Maybe avoid staying in such places for more than a short time.
    It's up to you whether you wear masks, but if service providers ask you to (public transport, shops etc.) it would be courteous to do so.

    Government has done this sort of messaging campaign rather well at time over the last couple of months. I'm not sure why they've abandoned it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,480
    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Kwarteng is a dunderheid of the first order as well as a liar. Heard him on radio this morning , did not know anything on number of cars in UK, said iphones were significantly cheaper than when introduced so electric cars would be the same ( they are 3 x price of first iphones nowadays) and said it would be no problem as there would be chargers on the streets for people who lived in flats.
    Absolutely thick lying Tory drone.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,932
    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    "...at this minute..." leaves an enormous amount of wiggle room, so it would hardly be hanging him out to dry.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207
    @rcs1000 Last night I wrote that vf.politicalbetting.com is intermittently causing my CPU to surge to 100% usage on Chrome (and williamglenn said the same is happening to him on Firefox) and you said to do Shift+Escape to check it is actually the tab that's causing the issue. Its just happened again and it is the tabs. No idea why its doing it, it started just over a week ago. No idea if its affecting anyone else other than william and myself.

    image
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,889
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Mate it has been a feature of this government during this pandemic that it has been bolted on that when a govt minister goes out on the airwaves at 8am saying this will/won't happen, sure as eggs is eggs by later that day it is announced that it won't/will happen.

    At one point it was comical how predictable this process was. Why is KK so different?
    Time is ticking, late oct already. Chance they will save Christmas and pile on, too late, in the New Year.

    8% is 23/2. it would be great if this could routinely be stated if we are going to implied odds for threader headlines, as seems to be happening.
    Of course the interesting thing is how blase the UK has become to this level of deaths.

    Influenza and pneumonia killed 30,000/year in 2018/2019 with nary a headline. It probably ran at the same rate previously. Let's say that's over the six months around Christmas so it's 170 deaths a day. We have been in a pandemic that has been shocking and "unprecedented" and we have had the most extraordinary restrictions of our freedoms.

    Perhaps people are working out what an acceptable price to pay for freedom is and it turns out it's 10-20% (as it stands) more deaths than the status quo ante.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,180
    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    It’s not unknown for No 10’s loyalties (ho ho) to lurch in opposite directions within short periods of time. A couple of uncomfortable tabloid headlines and Bob is very much your uncle.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,889
    malcolmg said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Kwarteng is a dunderheid of the first order as well as a liar. Heard him on radio this morning , did not know anything on number of cars in UK, said iphones were significantly cheaper than when introduced so electric cars would be the same ( they are 3 x price of first iphones nowadays) and said it would be no problem as there would be chargers on the streets for people who lived in flats.
    Absolutely thick lying Tory drone.
    Morning Malc.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,852

    Absolutely nobody wants another lockdown if it can be avoided. But the Covid situation is worsening. If it were just a matter of people who refused vaccinations without reason getting ill and dying, I'd say tough. But it isn't: clearly some people who are fully vaxxed are getting very ill and dying, and the government is being rather coy on the numbers.

    So how to avoid lockdown of any sort? Government messaging has become really poor, and it would help if they got their act together. Maybe reinstate a weekly press conference until numbers/hospitalisations/decline, combined with mass information/advertising campaigns.

    What should government messaging consist of? I'd suggest:

    If you want to avoid further restrictive measures, get vaccinated, however old you are (young children excepted).
    If you haven't had your booster jab, why not? It may save your life.
    The virus is spreading particularly virulently in poorly-ventilated, confine spaces. Maybe avoid staying in such places for more than a short time.
    It's up to you whether you wear masks, but if service providers ask you to (public transport, shops etc.) it would be courteous to do so.

    Government has done this sort of messaging campaign rather well at time over the last couple of months. I'm not sure why they've abandoned it.

    How many of the fully vaccinated who get sick and die are sick oldies who would get sick and die in any case ?

    Likewise how many are obese slobs who have done nothing to improve their health and fitness ?

    Now I would say that the government should have done much more to encourage a general public health campaign but people have to take individual responsibility for themselves.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,889

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    It’s not unknown for No 10’s loyalties (ho ho) to lurch in opposite directions within short periods of time. A couple of uncomfortable tabloid headlines and Bob is very much your uncle.
    There is no excuse for such hate speech.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207
    Dodgy market.

    Smarkets changed ("clarified") the rules on 12 October so that mandatory vaccine passports for Care Staff is a Yes. Despite the fact that mandatory vaccine passports for Care Staff was already pre-announced before this market even opened (or at least before you mentioned it). Extremely dodgy and if I'd bet on No I'd be fuming that Smarkets have done this. Makes me want to steer clear of any more similar markets from them.

    Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,940
    Prob with NHS confederation calling for plan b, is it puts the focus on restricting peoples lives and away from things that’ll substantially make a difference. Ie booster program, wider use of lfts, and using sick pay to help infectious people stay at home.....

    I repeat, restrictions should not become normalised in a post vaccine world. That was not part of the bargain....

    Scotland have had admissions equivalent to c1000 a day or over for the past 6 weeks.

    Maybe we should mandate masks in public areas there…O they did that already.


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1450734841423613966?s=20
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,478
    MaxPB said:

    Lockdown would require reintroduction of furlough and that is not going to happen, ergo no lockdown. I think the most we'll see is mandatory masks in some indoor settings and vaccine passports for indoor socialising. More than that and it starts to cost money and Rishi has made it pretty clear that no more money is available for this.

    Yep - that is what plan b says. TBH, while I don't want it, I'm still wearing masks in shops, so if that became mandatory again so be it. I'm still required to wear masks at work in corridors too.

    As you say there will be no furlough, so as you say no 'lockdown'.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,602
    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Mate it has been a feature of this government during this pandemic that it has been bolted on that when a govt minister goes out on the airwaves at 8am saying this will/won't happen, sure as eggs is eggs by later that day it is announced that it won't/will happen.

    At one point it was comical how predictable this process was. Why is KK so different?
    Time is ticking, late oct already. Chance they will save Christmas and pile on, too late, in the New Year.

    8% is 23/2. it would be great if this could routinely be stated if we are going to implied odds for threader headlines, as seems to be happening.
    Of course the interesting thing is how blase the UK has become to this level of deaths.

    Influenza and pneumonia killed 30,000/year in 2018/2019 with nary a headline. It probably ran at the same rate previously. Let's say that's over the six months around Christmas so it's 170 deaths a day. We have been in a pandemic that has been shocking and "unprecedented" and we have had the most extraordinary restrictions of our freedoms.

    Perhaps people are working out what an acceptable price to pay for freedom is and it turns out it's 10-20% (as it stands) more deaths than the status quo ante.
    I hope @contrarian is ok. I still think he was wrong, but less wrong than I used to think.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,944

    Absolutely nobody wants another lockdown if it can be avoided. But the Covid situation is worsening. If it were just a matter of people who refused vaccinations without reason getting ill and dying, I'd say tough. But it isn't: clearly some people who are fully vaxxed are getting very ill and dying, and the government is being rather coy on the numbers.

    So how to avoid lockdown of any sort? Government messaging has become really poor, and it would help if they got their act together. Maybe reinstate a weekly press conference until numbers/hospitalisations/decline, combined with mass information/advertising campaigns.

    What should government messaging consist of? I'd suggest:

    If you want to avoid further restrictive measures, get vaccinated, however old you are (young children excepted).
    If you haven't had your booster jab, why not? It may save your life.
    The virus is spreading particularly virulently in poorly-ventilated, confine spaces. Maybe avoid staying in such places for more than a short time.
    It's up to you whether you wear masks, but if service providers ask you to (public transport, shops etc.) it would be courteous to do so.

    Government has done this sort of messaging campaign rather well at time over the last couple of months. I'm not sure why they've abandoned it.

    * sorry, penultimate sentence should have said 'years', not 'months'.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,480
    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Kwarteng is a dunderheid of the first order as well as a liar. Heard him on radio this morning , did not know anything on number of cars in UK, said iphones were significantly cheaper than when introduced so electric cars would be the same ( they are 3 x price of first iphones nowadays) and said it would be no problem as there would be chargers on the streets for people who lived in flats.
    Absolutely thick lying Tory drone.
    Morning Malc.
    Hi Topping
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319

    @rcs1000 Last night I wrote that vf.politicalbetting.com is intermittently causing my CPU to surge to 100% usage on Chrome (and williamglenn said the same is happening to him on Firefox) and you said to do Shift+Escape to check it is actually the tab that's causing the issue. Its just happened again and it is the tabs. No idea why its doing it, it started just over a week ago. No idea if its affecting anyone else other than william and myself.

    image

    I have this happen to me occasionally when I open multiple vanilla tabs simultaneously (for example when I'm looking for an old post in search and open a half dozen candidates).

    Something in the javascript goes wonky and hammers the processor.

    It never happens if I have just one https://vf.politicalbetting.com/ tab open.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,480
    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    It’s not unknown for No 10’s loyalties (ho ho) to lurch in opposite directions within short periods of time. A couple of uncomfortable tabloid headlines and Bob is very much your uncle.
    There is no excuse for such hate speech.
    Sounds Trans and gender phobic as well, shocking.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,478

    darkage said:

    Almost inevitable I would say. Either going to be a crisis in the NHS that prompts it, or the inevitable new variant. They haven't exactly been telling people to "be careful" or "take responsibility", which is going to make it harder to justify new restrictions.

    There have been a lot of infections since Delta came along and no new variant. Delta might be an evolutionary endpoint for the virus. As optimised as it can get.

    I think it's hard to see how the number of Covid patients will quadruple from here, to rival the peak of last winter, so I think they will resist new restrictions.

    But it will mean that the NHS falls several more months behind.
    There are off course lots of different versions of delta too - there was information about a different lineage that is about 6% of delta cases in the UK. Delta being so infectious means its hard for other variants to get a hold, hence its complete dominance in the UK. Where diseases can go is to get even more infectious, but at the expense of being less severe, and this has probably happened to a lot of the viruses that are endemic now. Initially severe illness causing, with time and increased population exposure they become much milder.

    Interesting on the radio this morning to hear that most people in hospital and ICU with covid are unvaccinated. I would be announcing this every hour on the hour, every news bulletin. I would have images of people who were unvaccinated and died of covid. The vaccine is there, get it, don't die of covid.
    If that's so then we either run out of anti-vaxxers to go to hospital or we stop anti-vaxxers being treated in hospital.

    Because anti-vaxxers are going to get infected.
    Yes they are, and I have stated many times that I believe the government/SAGE is 'happy' with high cases because it is getting to the un-vaxxed. They are helping to reach HIT by recovering from infection.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,889
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Mate it has been a feature of this government during this pandemic that it has been bolted on that when a govt minister goes out on the airwaves at 8am saying this will/won't happen, sure as eggs is eggs by later that day it is announced that it won't/will happen.

    At one point it was comical how predictable this process was. Why is KK so different?
    Time is ticking, late oct already. Chance they will save Christmas and pile on, too late, in the New Year.

    8% is 23/2. it would be great if this could routinely be stated if we are going to implied odds for threader headlines, as seems to be happening.
    Of course the interesting thing is how blase the UK has become to this level of deaths.

    Influenza and pneumonia killed 30,000/year in 2018/2019 with nary a headline. It probably ran at the same rate previously. Let's say that's over the six months around Christmas so it's 170 deaths a day. We have been in a pandemic that has been shocking and "unprecedented" and we have had the most extraordinary restrictions of our freedoms.

    Perhaps people are working out what an acceptable price to pay for freedom is and it turns out it's 10-20% (as it stands) more deaths than the status quo ante.
    I hope @contrarian is ok. I still think he was wrong, but less wrong than I used to think.
    I hope so too (that he is ok) - such a discussion necessarily invokes him.

    And as you know I thought he was a lot less wrong than some others on here.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    It’s not unknown for No 10’s loyalties (ho ho) to lurch in opposite directions within short periods of time. A couple of uncomfortable tabloid headlines and Bob is very much your uncle.
    Or, perchance, Carrie's your aunt?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Mate it has been a feature of this government during this pandemic that it has been bolted on that when a govt minister goes out on the airwaves at 8am saying this will/won't happen, sure as eggs is eggs by later that day it is announced that it won't/will happen.

    At one point it was comical how predictable this process was. Why is KK so different?
    Time is ticking, late oct already. Chance they will save Christmas and pile on, too late, in the New Year.

    8% is 23/2. it would be great if this could routinely be stated if we are going to implied odds for threader headlines, as seems to be happening.
    Of course the interesting thing is how blase the UK has become to this level of deaths.

    Influenza and pneumonia killed 30,000/year in 2018/2019 with nary a headline. It probably ran at the same rate previously. Let's say that's over the six months around Christmas so it's 170 deaths a day. We have been in a pandemic that has been shocking and "unprecedented" and we have had the most extraordinary restrictions of our freedoms.

    Perhaps people are working out what an acceptable price to pay for freedom is and it turns out it's 10-20% (as it stands) more deaths than the status quo ante.
    In part this is because the 30k figure is calculated after the fact by statisticians. By the time it is produced it is old news.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,173
    One problem with contemplating reintroducing any form of restriction on daily life to delay the Covid infection of antivaxxers is that many of the anti-medical science crowd were those believing it was all a hoax and protesting against any action to control Covid.

    It would be absurd for vaccinated people to have their lives restricted for the sake of people who would refuse to be part of any common action.

    The problem is that the vaccine refuseniks are blocking the treatment of the vaccinated. That's the issue that needs addressing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,889
    Alistair said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Mate it has been a feature of this government during this pandemic that it has been bolted on that when a govt minister goes out on the airwaves at 8am saying this will/won't happen, sure as eggs is eggs by later that day it is announced that it won't/will happen.

    At one point it was comical how predictable this process was. Why is KK so different?
    Time is ticking, late oct already. Chance they will save Christmas and pile on, too late, in the New Year.

    8% is 23/2. it would be great if this could routinely be stated if we are going to implied odds for threader headlines, as seems to be happening.
    Of course the interesting thing is how blase the UK has become to this level of deaths.

    Influenza and pneumonia killed 30,000/year in 2018/2019 with nary a headline. It probably ran at the same rate previously. Let's say that's over the six months around Christmas so it's 170 deaths a day. We have been in a pandemic that has been shocking and "unprecedented" and we have had the most extraordinary restrictions of our freedoms.

    Perhaps people are working out what an acceptable price to pay for freedom is and it turns out it's 10-20% (as it stands) more deaths than the status quo ante.
    In part this is because the 30k figure is calculated after the fact by statisticians. By the time it is produced it is old news.
    Maybe but it's not as though the influenza/pneumonia season comes for the first time as a surprise every year.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,602
    malcolmg said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Kwarteng is a dunderheid of the first order as well as a liar. Heard him on radio this morning , did not know anything on number of cars in UK, said iphones were significantly cheaper than when introduced so electric cars would be the same ( they are 3 x price of first iphones nowadays) and said it would be no problem as there would be chargers on the streets for people who lived in flats.
    Absolutely thick lying Tory drone.
    First iphone $599 for 8 gb of storage and a 3.5 in screen, I've just paid less than that for a phone with 12 gb ram/ 256 storage so he has a point.
  • MaxPB said:

    Lockdown would require reintroduction of furlough and that is not going to happen, ergo no lockdown. I think the most we'll see is mandatory masks in some indoor settings and vaccine passports for indoor socialising. More than that and it starts to cost money and Rishi has made it pretty clear that no more money is available for this.

    I do not expect - or think we will need - lockdown. What I expect / hope is that they encourage people to WFH where possible, social distance and wear masks when in crowded places. Just to keep a lid on it through the winter.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,432

    Absolutely nobody wants another lockdown if it can be avoided. But the Covid situation is worsening. If it were just a matter of people who refused vaccinations without reason getting ill and dying, I'd say tough. But it isn't: clearly some people who are fully vaxxed are getting very ill and dying, and the government is being rather coy on the numbers.

    So how to avoid lockdown of any sort? Government messaging has become really poor, and it would help if they got their act together. Maybe reinstate a weekly press conference until numbers/hospitalisations/decline, combined with mass information/advertising campaigns.

    What should government messaging consist of? I'd suggest:

    If you want to avoid further restrictive measures, get vaccinated, however old you are (young children excepted).
    If you haven't had your booster jab, why not? It may save your life.
    The virus is spreading particularly virulently in poorly-ventilated, confine spaces. Maybe avoid staying in such places for more than a short time.
    It's up to you whether you wear masks, but if service providers ask you to (public transport, shops etc.) it would be courteous to do so.

    Government has done this sort of messaging campaign rather well at time over the last couple of months. I'm not sure why they've abandoned it.

    Well, I kind of agree with all of this apart from the first sentence. I work in the public sector, and it is crawling with people salivating over the prospect of imposing more measures up to and including another lockdown.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    I was previously dead against any kind of lockdowns being reintroduced.
    But reading Leon's and PT's heartless comments last night has made me much more sanguine about it.

    It turns out that complaining about policy affecting your mental health, then dismissing those who die as "fat, old, or stupid" isn't that persuasive.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,932
    Facebook is planning to rebrand the company with a new name
    https://www.theverge.com/2021/10/19/22735612/facebook-change-company-name-metaverse
    ...The metaverse is “going to be a big focus, and I think that this is just going to be a big part of the next chapter for the way that the internet evolves after the mobile internet,” Zuckerberg told The Verge’s Casey Newton this summer. “And I think it’s going to be the next big chapter for our company too, really doubling down in this area.”

    Complicating matters is that, while Facebook has been heavily promoting the idea of the metaverse in recent weeks, it’s still not a concept that’s widely understood. The term was coined originally by sci-fi novelist Neal Stephenson to describe a virtual world people escape to from a dystopian, real world....


    ... into Facebook's dystopian new world ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207
    edited October 20
    The extremely dodgy part of Smarkets changing the rules of the market on 12 October comes from the link they shared in the 12 October "clarification":

    The regulations were laid in Parliament on 22 June 2021 and were made on 22 July 2021. They will come into force on 11 November 2021 after a 16-week grace period.

    The "clarification" surely should have happened on or around the 22 June 2021 when the regulations were laid in Parliament.

    Yet it looks to me like the market opened on 13 July, so it opened after the regulations were laid in Parliament. This was a pre-existing regulation already laid in Parliament before the Smarkets market even opened and yet it took them until 12 October to "clarify" the rules. At which point the betting suddenly spiked to Yes once people realised the rules had been changed.
  • darkage said:

    Almost inevitable I would say. Either going to be a crisis in the NHS that prompts it, or the inevitable new variant. They haven't exactly been telling people to "be careful" or "take responsibility", which is going to make it harder to justify new restrictions.

    There have been a lot of infections since Delta came along and no new variant. Delta might be an evolutionary endpoint for the virus. As optimised as it can get.

    I think it's hard to see how the number of Covid patients will quadruple from here, to rival the peak of last winter, so I think they will resist new restrictions.

    But it will mean that the NHS falls several more months behind.
    There are off course lots of different versions of delta too - there was information about a different lineage that is about 6% of delta cases in the UK. Delta being so infectious means its hard for other variants to get a hold, hence its complete dominance in the UK. Where diseases can go is to get even more infectious, but at the expense of being less severe, and this has probably happened to a lot of the viruses that are endemic now. Initially severe illness causing, with time and increased population exposure they become much milder.

    Interesting on the radio this morning to hear that most people in hospital and ICU with covid are unvaccinated. I would be announcing this every hour on the hour, every news bulletin. I would have images of people who were unvaccinated and died of covid. The vaccine is there, get it, don't die of covid.
    Yes. They really should have been doing this all along. But "Covid might kill you" clashes with the desired "its over, back to the office" narrative, so they haven't. Which is why our vax rates are stubbornly stable. There really needs to be more effort to call out anti-vaxxer twats.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,944
    Cookie said:

    Absolutely nobody wants another lockdown if it can be avoided. But the Covid situation is worsening. If it were just a matter of people who refused vaccinations without reason getting ill and dying, I'd say tough. But it isn't: clearly some people who are fully vaxxed are getting very ill and dying, and the government is being rather coy on the numbers.

    So how to avoid lockdown of any sort? Government messaging has become really poor, and it would help if they got their act together. Maybe reinstate a weekly press conference until numbers/hospitalisations/decline, combined with mass information/advertising campaigns.

    What should government messaging consist of? I'd suggest:

    If you want to avoid further restrictive measures, get vaccinated, however old you are (young children excepted).
    If you haven't had your booster jab, why not? It may save your life.
    The virus is spreading particularly virulently in poorly-ventilated, confine spaces. Maybe avoid staying in such places for more than a short time.
    It's up to you whether you wear masks, but if service providers ask you to (public transport, shops etc.) it would be courteous to do so.

    Government has done this sort of messaging campaign rather well at time over the last couple of months. I'm not sure why they've abandoned it.

    Well, I kind of agree with all of this apart from the first sentence. I work in the public sector, and it is crawling with people salivating over the prospect of imposing more measures up to and including another lockdown.
    I meant to insert the word 'sensible' in the first sentence after 'absolutely nobody', but forgot.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,528

    Absolutely nobody wants another lockdown if it can be avoided. But the Covid situation is worsening. If it were just a matter of people who refused vaccinations without reason getting ill and dying, I'd say tough. But it isn't: clearly some people who are fully vaxxed are getting very ill and dying, and the government is being rather coy on the numbers.

    So how to avoid lockdown of any sort? Government messaging has become really poor, and it would help if they got their act together. Maybe reinstate a weekly press conference until numbers/hospitalisations/decline, combined with mass information/advertising campaigns.

    What should government messaging consist of? I'd suggest:

    If you want to avoid further restrictive measures, get vaccinated, however old you are (young children excepted).
    If you haven't had your booster jab, why not? It may save your life.
    The virus is spreading particularly virulently in poorly-ventilated, confine spaces. Maybe avoid staying in such places for more than a short time.
    It's up to you whether you wear masks, but if service providers ask you to (public transport, shops etc.) it would be courteous to do so.

    Government has done this sort of messaging campaign rather well at time over the last couple of months. I'm not sure why they've abandoned it.

    I don't know but I wonder if it is tied with Nadhim Zahawi moving on from being Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Vaccines and Public Health (Vaccines Minister to you and me). His replacement is apparently Maggie Throup who I have never even heard of.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,932
    Apparently aerosols persist for the flu, too.
    Who would have guessed ?

    New study shows patients visiting their doctor after a flu patient are more likely to get the flu
    https://www.sph.umn.edu/news/new-study-shows-patients-visiting-their-doctor-after-a-flu-patient-are-more-likely-to-get-the-flu/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144
    IshmaelZ said:

    malcolmg said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Kwarteng is a dunderheid of the first order as well as a liar. Heard him on radio this morning , did not know anything on number of cars in UK, said iphones were significantly cheaper than when introduced so electric cars would be the same ( they are 3 x price of first iphones nowadays) and said it would be no problem as there would be chargers on the streets for people who lived in flats.
    Absolutely thick lying Tory drone.
    First iphone $599 for 8 gb of storage and a 3.5 in screen, I've just paid less than that for a phone with 12 gb ram/ 256 storage so he has a point.
    Surely that is what one would expect in a capitalist society? If something is good, someone will find a way of making it better and or cheaper, although as Ruskin sort of said, if it's just cheaper, and doesn't work as well, then more fool the buyer!
  • HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng is of course absolutely right. While cases may be rising death rates are still far below where they were in January after most people have been double vaccinated.

    There may be an argument for mandatory vaccine passports for clubs and large events and compulsory facemasks in crowded areas if cases continue to rise. There is no case at all for another lockdown

    Kwarteng has been sent out like Ben Swain to parrot today's line. The problem is that its always absolutism - ruling it out until the point where they do it. They he - and you - tell us that was always the plan and how marvellous that we have a government who makes considered decisions.

    There is a painful track record of ministers been sent out to make absolutist statements on the media only for the position to shift under them. You'd think the Number 10 media team would learn. Perhaps the new people being hired are more to sort out a shonky media operation and less because there will a General Election next year.

    Still, could be worse. Could have Seamus Milne doing their media...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,676
    edited October 20
    One thing to consider is the bigger picture in terms of deaths. Here are the weekly COVID deaths in England and Wales and the non-COVID deaths in excess of the five-year average (2015-2019):

    Week ending: COVID deaths, non-COVID deaths in excess of the five-year average

    09/07/2021: 183, 386
    16/07/2021: 218, 229
    23/07/2021: 327, 324
    30/07/2021: 404, 679
    06/08/2021: 527, 624
    13/08/2021: 571, 699
    20/08/2021: 570, 358
    27/08/2021: 668, 443
    03/09/2021: 659, -103 (bank holiday)
    10/09/2021: 857, 996 (after bank holiday)
    17/09/2021: 851, 852
    24/09/2021: 888, 532
    01/10/2021: 783, 350
    08/10/2021: 666, 586

    Personally I think this puts the COVID deaths in context of more deaths happening anyway. I think there's a lot of low-hanging fruit that dodged the reaper during last winter when flu was limited by the restrictions. How many of those dying from COVID may have been picked off anyway is unknown, but I don't think the COVID deaths warrant any extra action.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207
    Alistair said:

    @rcs1000 Last night I wrote that vf.politicalbetting.com is intermittently causing my CPU to surge to 100% usage on Chrome (and williamglenn said the same is happening to him on Firefox) and you said to do Shift+Escape to check it is actually the tab that's causing the issue. Its just happened again and it is the tabs. No idea why its doing it, it started just over a week ago. No idea if its affecting anyone else other than william and myself.

    image

    I have this happen to me occasionally when I open multiple vanilla tabs simultaneously (for example when I'm looking for an old post in search and open a half dozen candidates).

    Something in the javascript goes wonky and hammers the processor.

    It never happens if I have just one https://vf.politicalbetting.com/ tab open.
    That makes sense thank you, I have a tendency to leave multiple tabs open but it got really bad yesterday when I was searching for an old post.

    Multiple tabs must somehow be feeding back into each other, like when a speaker and microphone are too close to each other.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,752
    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Mate it has been a feature of this government during this pandemic that it has been bolted on that when a govt minister goes out on the airwaves at 8am saying this will/won't happen, sure as eggs is eggs by later that day it is announced that it won't/will happen.

    At one point it was comical how predictable this process was. Why is KK so different?
    Time is ticking, late oct already. Chance they will save Christmas and pile on, too late, in the New Year.

    8% is 23/2. it would be great if this could routinely be stated if we are going to implied odds for threader headlines, as seems to be happening.
    Of course the interesting thing is how blase the UK has become to this level of deaths.

    Influenza and pneumonia killed 30,000/year in 2018/2019 with nary a headline. It probably ran at the same rate previously. Let's say that's over the six months around Christmas so it's 170 deaths a day. We have been in a pandemic that has been shocking and "unprecedented" and we have had the most extraordinary restrictions of our freedoms.

    Perhaps people are working out what an acceptable price to pay for freedom is and it turns out it's 10-20% (as it stands) more deaths than the status quo ante.
    I think that's about right, and the main difference is the vaccine. People now have the means to protect themselves from COVID by getting vaccinated and 90% of adults have already chosen to do so and around 10% of adults are onto their third dose already. If there's people dying of COVID (not with it) then it's highly likely that they were either already in death's waiting room or they chose not to get vaccinated.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,932
    malcolmg said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Kwarteng is a dunderheid of the first order as well as a liar. Heard him on radio this morning , did not know anything on number of cars in UK, said iphones were significantly cheaper than when introduced so electric cars would be the same ( they are 3 x price of first iphones nowadays) and said it would be no problem as there would be chargers on the streets for people who lived in flats.
    Absolutely thick lying Tory drone.
    Just as well all our cars won't be made by Apple, then.
    Morning, malcolm.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144

    Absolutely nobody wants another lockdown if it can be avoided. But the Covid situation is worsening. If it were just a matter of people who refused vaccinations without reason getting ill and dying, I'd say tough. But it isn't: clearly some people who are fully vaxxed are getting very ill and dying, and the government is being rather coy on the numbers.

    So how to avoid lockdown of any sort? Government messaging has become really poor, and it would help if they got their act together. Maybe reinstate a weekly press conference until numbers/hospitalisations/decline, combined with mass information/advertising campaigns.

    What should government messaging consist of? I'd suggest:

    If you want to avoid further restrictive measures, get vaccinated, however old you are (young children excepted).
    If you haven't had your booster jab, why not? It may save your life.
    The virus is spreading particularly virulently in poorly-ventilated, confine spaces. Maybe avoid staying in such places for more than a short time.
    It's up to you whether you wear masks, but if service providers ask you to (public transport, shops etc.) it would be courteous to do so.

    Government has done this sort of messaging campaign rather well at time over the last couple of months. I'm not sure why they've abandoned it.

    I don't know but I wonder if it is tied with Nadhim Zahawi moving on from being Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Vaccines and Public Health (Vaccines Minister to you and me). His replacement is apparently Maggie Throup who I have never even heard of.
    MP for Erewash, apparently. Biomedical scientist by training, so possibly appropriate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,932
    Possible evidence the pandemic is nearing its end.
    https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1450517323174092804
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,173
    I'm confused as to why being anti-lockdown is seen as right-wing and pro-lockdown left-wing.

    Lockdown is right-wing. It's separating everyone into their private homes, keeping the virus at bay beyond the fence. Left-wing politics is about the action of a collective - how can a collective act if it is atomized at home?

    Similarly it is an individual's duty to society to have the vaccine. If an individual rejects the help of society and medical science by rejecting the vaccine, then society has the right to reject that individual and bar them from blocking other people's use of medical science.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806
    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Not if you read the updated market rules (as mentioned by others, vaccine mandate for care home staff - as already announced - settles this for yes).

    For what the market initially seemed to be about, I'd agree there was loads of value in no (and I bet accordingly - I was lucky that I decided to trade out after the market moved towards no, initially to break even on yes and then - after the update including vaccine passports - to green both ways)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,940
    Nothing to see here....

    NEW Westminster Voting Intention - Con & Lab unchanged for the THIRD successive poll.

    Con 40 (=)
    Lab 35 (=)
    LDM 8 (=)
    Grn 5 (=)
    SNP 4 (-1)
    Other 8 (+1)

    15-17 Oct, 2,092 UK adults

    (Changes from 8-10 Oct)


    https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1450738469270077443?s=20

    Scottish subsample might be fun!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207
    Farooq said:

    I was previously dead against any kind of lockdowns being reintroduced.
    But reading Leon's and PT's heartless comments last night has made me much more sanguine about it.

    It turns out that complaining about policy affecting your mental health, then dismissing those who die as "fat, old, or stupid" isn't that persuasive.

    Excuse me but that was Leon's turn of phrase not mine.

    My comments weren't heartless, they were simply that we need to learn to live with the virus. As I said specifically, my daughter is currently in Year 3 and her last uninterrupted year of schooling was in Reception. When you stop to think about it, its absolutely ridiculous what we've been through.

    Everyone dies eventually. What we do when we are alive is what is most important. We can't keep indefinitely sacrificing life, sacrificing education, sacrificing everything that makes life meaningful in order to try to futilely prevent death.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,746
    Nigelb said:

    Apparently aerosols persist for the flu, too.
    Who would have guessed ?

    New study shows patients visiting their doctor after a flu patient are more likely to get the flu
    https://www.sph.umn.edu/news/new-study-shows-patients-visiting-their-doctor-after-a-flu-patient-are-more-likely-to-get-the-flu/

    Believe it or not, not WHO or anyone else until July last year as up to that point scientific consensus was that heavier than air particles drop to the surface quickly.

    Yes it isn't accurate but https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/239-experts-with-one-big-claim-the-coronavirus-is-airborne.html
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,889

    I'm confused as to why being anti-lockdown is seen as right-wing and pro-lockdown left-wing.

    Lockdown is right-wing. It's separating everyone into their private homes, keeping the virus at bay beyond the fence. Left-wing politics is about the action of a collective - how can a collective act if it is atomized at home?

    Similarly it is an individual's duty to society to have the vaccine. If an individual rejects the help of society and medical science by rejecting the vaccine, then society has the right to reject that individual and bar them from blocking other people's use of medical science.

    I still find it extraordinary that in the HoC it is Lab = masks (fresh from their no mask conference) and Cons = no masks.

    It is:

    left = more state measures to combat Covid
    right = fewer state measures to combat Covid
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,889

    Farooq said:

    I was previously dead against any kind of lockdowns being reintroduced.
    But reading Leon's and PT's heartless comments last night has made me much more sanguine about it.

    It turns out that complaining about policy affecting your mental health, then dismissing those who die as "fat, old, or stupid" isn't that persuasive.

    Excuse me but that was Leon's turn of phrase not mine.

    My comments weren't heartless, they were simply that we need to learn to live with the virus. As I said specifically, my daughter is currently in Year 3 and her last uninterrupted year of schooling was in Reception. When you stop to think about it, its absolutely ridiculous what we've been through.

    Everyone dies eventually. What we do when we are alive is what is most important. We can't keep indefinitely sacrificing life, sacrificing education, sacrificing everything that makes life meaningful in order to try to futilely prevent death.
    That comment about 50% of children have the virus and 50% are about to get it seems to be holding true (prob: 60:40 by now).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,932
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Apparently aerosols persist for the flu, too.
    Who would have guessed ?

    New study shows patients visiting their doctor after a flu patient are more likely to get the flu
    https://www.sph.umn.edu/news/new-study-shows-patients-visiting-their-doctor-after-a-flu-patient-are-more-likely-to-get-the-flu/

    Believe it or not, not WHO or anyone else until July last year as up to that point scientific consensus was that heavier than air particles drop to the surface quickly.

    Yes it isn't accurate but https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/239-experts-with-one-big-claim-the-coronavirus-is-airborne.html
    Yes, I was one of those getting very angry about this back then, as the evidence was pretty clear going all the way back to the flu pandemic of 1919.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,852

    Absolutely nobody wants another lockdown if it can be avoided. But the Covid situation is worsening. If it were just a matter of people who refused vaccinations without reason getting ill and dying, I'd say tough. But it isn't: clearly some people who are fully vaxxed are getting very ill and dying, and the government is being rather coy on the numbers.

    So how to avoid lockdown of any sort? Government messaging has become really poor, and it would help if they got their act together. Maybe reinstate a weekly press conference until numbers/hospitalisations/decline, combined with mass information/advertising campaigns.

    What should government messaging consist of? I'd suggest:

    If you want to avoid further restrictive measures, get vaccinated, however old you are (young children excepted).
    If you haven't had your booster jab, why not? It may save your life.
    The virus is spreading particularly virulently in poorly-ventilated, confine spaces. Maybe avoid staying in such places for more than a short time.
    It's up to you whether you wear masks, but if service providers ask you to (public transport, shops etc.) it would be courteous to do so.

    Government has done this sort of messaging campaign rather well at time over the last couple of months. I'm not sure why they've abandoned it.

    I don't know but I wonder if it is tied with Nadhim Zahawi moving on from being Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Vaccines and Public Health (Vaccines Minister to you and me). His replacement is apparently Maggie Throup who I have never even heard of.
    Which prompts the question of whether the DoH needs a dynamic minister for anything to get done.

    And if so why does it need a dynamic minister for anything to get done.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,602
    Also, this

    Plan B of mask wearing and ban on indoor gatherings must be enforced immediately, warns NHS leader
    NHS Confederation chief said Covid restrictions including a return to working from home need to return or UK at risk of 'winter crisis'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/20/plan-b-mask-wearing-work-home-ban-indoor-gatherings/

    please insert "not" before "value" in my post above.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,273
    Anecdote time: Increased maskage on the trains this morning compared to 2 weeks ago.

    I doubt whether that will be the case in the pub this evening.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,726
    IshmaelZ said:

    malcolmg said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Kwarteng is a dunderheid of the first order as well as a liar. Heard him on radio this morning , did not know anything on number of cars in UK, said iphones were significantly cheaper than when introduced so electric cars would be the same ( they are 3 x price of first iphones nowadays) and said it would be no problem as there would be chargers on the streets for people who lived in flats.
    Absolutely thick lying Tory drone.
    First iphone $599 for 8 gb of storage and a 3.5 in screen, I've just paid less than that for a phone with 12 gb ram/ 256 storage so he has a point.
    Indeed. iPhones are not really a good example as they command brand loyalty and of course Apple will always charge as much as I can get away with. I bought a cheap rugged phone for about £100 which does most things I ask of it (the camera's a bit crap) and is certainly far in advance of my first HTC smartphone. And I can drop it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,602

    Absolutely nobody wants another lockdown if it can be avoided. But the Covid situation is worsening. If it were just a matter of people who refused vaccinations without reason getting ill and dying, I'd say tough. But it isn't: clearly some people who are fully vaxxed are getting very ill and dying, and the government is being rather coy on the numbers.

    So how to avoid lockdown of any sort? Government messaging has become really poor, and it would help if they got their act together. Maybe reinstate a weekly press conference until numbers/hospitalisations/decline, combined with mass information/advertising campaigns.

    What should government messaging consist of? I'd suggest:

    If you want to avoid further restrictive measures, get vaccinated, however old you are (young children excepted).
    If you haven't had your booster jab, why not? It may save your life.
    The virus is spreading particularly virulently in poorly-ventilated, confine spaces. Maybe avoid staying in such places for more than a short time.
    It's up to you whether you wear masks, but if service providers ask you to (public transport, shops etc.) it would be courteous to do so.

    Government has done this sort of messaging campaign rather well at time over the last couple of months. I'm not sure why they've abandoned it.

    I don't know but I wonder if it is tied with Nadhim Zahawi moving on from being Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Vaccines and Public Health (Vaccines Minister to you and me). His replacement is apparently Maggie Throup who I have never even heard of.
    MP for Erewash, apparently. Biomedical scientist by training, so possibly appropriate.
    Sounds like a childhood ailment of the offspring of tory-voting parents.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,164

    I'm confused as to why being anti-lockdown is seen as right-wing and pro-lockdown left-wing.

    Lockdown is right-wing. It's separating everyone into their private homes, keeping the virus at bay beyond the fence. Left-wing politics is about the action of a collective - how can a collective act if it is atomized at home?

    Similarly it is an individual's duty to society to have the vaccine. If an individual rejects the help of society and medical science by rejecting the vaccine, then society has the right to reject that individual and bar them from blocking other people's use of medical science.

    All silly generalisations, but:
    Left wing are in favour of large government telling people what to do. This is *exactly* what lockdown has been.
    Right wing are in favour of smaller government, with people free to do what they want within certain bounds.

    Left wing are in favour of higher government spending - lockdowns have involved much higher spending.
    Right wing want lesser government spending.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806
    edited October 20
    FPT:

    Selebian said:


    I'd instead favour not locking down - the consequence of not being vaccinated is that the rest of the country will no longer put life on hold to help you.

    But the hospitals are filling up with Covid patients, so routine surgeries are being cancelled. Vaccinated people are suffering because of the unvaccinated.
    DavidL said:

    Whilst that is undoubtedly a part of the response the problem is that the unvaccinated are clogging up our hospitals and preventing us from getting treatment for other things. What do we do about that consequence of their selfishness and stupidity?


    If an alcoholic gets cirrhosis of the liver then they'll only get on the transplant list if they give up alcohol.
    The obese are made to jump through all sorts of hoops if they wish to get bariatric surgery or similar.
    And so on.
    Liberty means having the right to make your own choices, it doesn't mean those choices being consequence-free.
    If the unvaccinated have to face consequences for their choices then that's their own choice.

    And others...

    All good points. However, what do we want to achieve? Punish the unvaccinated or encourage take-up? The unvaccinated are either hardcore anti-vax or believe themselves to be a low risk. I don't think threatening to withdraw care would have much effect on those who consider themselves invincible - if they're not scared of Covid then it's not going to help. It's a bit like saying to teenagers they won't receive treatment if they take an illegal drug - it's not going to change behaviour because the personal risk is perceived to be (and is) small.

    I think carrot and/or stick more useful - either use vaccine passports to make life a right pain for the unvaccinated (but this also inconveniences everyone else) or bribe people to get vaccinated (also apply retrospectively to those vaccinated). Costs would be manageable compared to NHS chaos or another vaccination.
    Nigelb said:

    Selebian said:

    I was never in the "it's no worse than flu" brigade, but I do think it might be instructive to have daily flu updates too, if we keep daily covid updates. Even the current figures are in line with a bad flu season, I would think? Of course, the current figures may get much worse before they get better, but comparison would help give some context.

    How many does flu put in intensive care for weeks at a time, though ?
    That's why the NHS is a bit panicked for this winter.
    Yep, good point. I think we'd be crazy to bring back restrictions to avert Covid deaths this winter, but there does come a point where restrictions could make sense to limit NHS load in the short term. However, we do need to have a long term view on that. This winter and that's it, well maybe that's doable- but how do we ensure that? More and better vaccinations? More infections providing natural protection? If what we're looking at is instead this problem every winter then instead we need to build the capacity to deal with it. Dust off the Nightingale facilities and have Covid cases outside of mainstream hospitals. Expensive and hard, but preferable to restrictions every winter.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207

    I'm confused as to why being anti-lockdown is seen as right-wing and pro-lockdown left-wing.

    Lockdown is right-wing. It's separating everyone into their private homes, keeping the virus at bay beyond the fence. Left-wing politics is about the action of a collective - how can a collective act if it is atomized at home?

    Similarly it is an individual's duty to society to have the vaccine. If an individual rejects the help of society and medical science by rejecting the vaccine, then society has the right to reject that individual and bar them from blocking other people's use of medical science.

    All silly generalisations, but:
    Left wing are in favour of large government telling people what to do. This is *exactly* what lockdown has been.
    Right wing are in favour of smaller government, with people free to do what they want within certain bounds.

    Left wing are in favour of higher government spending - lockdowns have involved much higher spending.
    Right wing want lesser government spending.
    Indeed FPT in response to @RochdalePioneers claiming that those saying we need to learn to live with it are all former/current Tory members/voters (my reply went in after this thread was opened).

    Plenty of current or former Lib Dem members/voters are saying the same thing too.

    The divide seems to me to be more between those who believe in collectivism/statism who want to see more state control of our lives (who tend to be Labour voters or SDP-style Lib Dems) and those who believe in individual responsibility/liberty (who tend to be Tory voters or truly liberal Lib Dems). With some who just want to bash the Government joining the former.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,389
    edited October 20
    IshmaelZ said:

    Also, this

    Plan B of mask wearing and ban on indoor gatherings must be enforced immediately, warns NHS leader
    NHS Confederation chief said Covid restrictions including a return to working from home need to return or UK at risk of 'winter crisis'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/20/plan-b-mask-wearing-work-home-ban-indoor-gatherings/

    please insert "not" before "value" in my post above.

    There may be a case for compulsory facemasks in crowded areas again and mandatory vaccine passports for nightclubs and cinemas and big indoor venues if cases continue to rise, there is no case at all for a complete ban on indoor gatherings
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,668
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Apparently aerosols persist for the flu, too.
    Who would have guessed ?

    New study shows patients visiting their doctor after a flu patient are more likely to get the flu
    https://www.sph.umn.edu/news/new-study-shows-patients-visiting-their-doctor-after-a-flu-patient-are-more-likely-to-get-the-flu/

    Believe it or not, not WHO or anyone else until July last year as up to that point scientific consensus was that heavier than air particles drop to the surface quickly.

    Yes it isn't accurate but https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/239-experts-with-one-big-claim-the-coronavirus-is-airborne.html
    Yes, I was one of those getting very angry about this back then, as the evidence was pretty clear going all the way back to the flu pandemic of 1919.
    There is going to be a lot more disease circulating when we aren't allowed to open the windows in our passive houses...
  • I'm confused as to why being anti-lockdown is seen as right-wing and pro-lockdown left-wing.

    Lockdown is right-wing. It's separating everyone into their private homes, keeping the virus at bay beyond the fence. Left-wing politics is about the action of a collective - how can a collective act if it is atomized at home?

    Similarly it is an individual's duty to society to have the vaccine. If an individual rejects the help of society and medical science by rejecting the vaccine, then society has the right to reject that individual and bar them from blocking other people's use of medical science.

    All silly generalisations, but:
    Left wing are in favour of large government telling people what to do. This is *exactly* what lockdown has been.
    Right wing are in favour of smaller government, with people free to do what they want within certain bounds.

    Left wing are in favour of higher government spending - lockdowns have involved much higher spending.
    Right wing want lesser government spending.
    Indeed FPT in response to @RochdalePioneers claiming that those saying we need to learn to live with it are all former/current Tory members/voters (my reply went in after this thread was opened).

    Plenty of current or former Lib Dem members/voters are saying the same thing too.
    I said current / former Tory members on here. Out there is the world there is a broader spread of opinions (happily for society) than we get on PB.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,754
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Also, this

    Plan B of mask wearing and ban on indoor gatherings must be enforced immediately, warns NHS leader
    NHS Confederation chief said Covid restrictions including a return to working from home need to return or UK at risk of 'winter crisis'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/20/plan-b-mask-wearing-work-home-ban-indoor-gatherings/

    please insert "not" before "value" in my post above.

    There may be a case for compulsory facemasks in crowded areas again and mandatory vaccine passports for nightclubs and cinemas and big indoor venues if cases continue to rise, there is no case at all for a complete ban on indoor gatherings
    Good to see mask wearing significantly higher on the tube this morning. Over 90% I would guess from about 60% a few weeks ago.

    Seems like the public might be ahead of the government. Not for the first time.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 603
    In my area lots of people have had or have currently Covid. I was at the pub last night (not a mask in sight) after my weekly football game and it was a bit of a joke. About half of us there had already had Covid fairly recently. The rest were worried they would get it now in case it ruins their half term plans. Everyone who had it has had it mildly. Loads of their kids have had it too. There was a general view that everyone has or will be exposed to it and so long as you've been jabbed we just need to get on with it.

    The stats on Covid cases must be under-reported quite substantially also. Many people only detect it through LFTs and what about the millions who never bother taking them?

    I keep thinking that Covid must run out of people to infect soon but it has yet to happen. Surely the schools at the very least must be nearing that given the stories I know of half of classes going off with it (presumably the other half must have had it already and be immune).

    If the idea was to control Covid cases then the mistake was not jabbing the teenagers over the Summer.

    Also of interest and un-reported so far I believe is that cases are spiking in some parts of Europe. Belgium and Netherlands particularly but early signs of this in Germany too: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2021-08-09..latest&facet=none&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~ITA~CAN~DEU~GBR~FRA~BEL~NLD~ESP~AUS
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207

    I'm confused as to why being anti-lockdown is seen as right-wing and pro-lockdown left-wing.

    Lockdown is right-wing. It's separating everyone into their private homes, keeping the virus at bay beyond the fence. Left-wing politics is about the action of a collective - how can a collective act if it is atomized at home?

    Similarly it is an individual's duty to society to have the vaccine. If an individual rejects the help of society and medical science by rejecting the vaccine, then society has the right to reject that individual and bar them from blocking other people's use of medical science.

    All silly generalisations, but:
    Left wing are in favour of large government telling people what to do. This is *exactly* what lockdown has been.
    Right wing are in favour of smaller government, with people free to do what they want within certain bounds.

    Left wing are in favour of higher government spending - lockdowns have involved much higher spending.
    Right wing want lesser government spending.
    Indeed FPT in response to @RochdalePioneers claiming that those saying we need to learn to live with it are all former/current Tory members/voters (my reply went in after this thread was opened).

    Plenty of current or former Lib Dem members/voters are saying the same thing too.
    I said current / former Tory members on here. Out there is the world there is a broader spread of opinions (happily for society) than we get on PB.

    Yes and I'm saying you're wrong on here.

    It seems to me that most current or former Lib Dem members/voters are saying the same thing on here.

    You may have jumped from the Labour Party to the Lib Dems because of your disagreements with Labour, but you're still a collectivist at heart. Without wanting to do a No True Scotsman fallacy, I don't think you're a real liberal, which is why you don't see the illiberalism you're proposing.

    Apologies if I am getting anyone wrong but as far as I know Stocky, Selebian, KJH and others are all liberal Lib Dems who are in favour of "learning to live with" Covid not mandatory restrictions. Even though he's vulnerable, even OGH was doing thread headers calling on the Government to go faster in lifting restrictions when it came to travel etc, not slower.

    I'm not seeing a majority of Lib Dems on here opposing "learn to live with it" as the strategy.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,478
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Also, this

    Plan B of mask wearing and ban on indoor gatherings must be enforced immediately, warns NHS leader
    NHS Confederation chief said Covid restrictions including a return to working from home need to return or UK at risk of 'winter crisis'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/20/plan-b-mask-wearing-work-home-ban-indoor-gatherings/

    please insert "not" before "value" in my post above.

    There may be a case for compulsory facemasks in crowded areas again and mandatory vaccine passports for nightclubs and cinemas and big indoor venues if cases continue to rise, there is no case at all for a complete ban on indoor gatherings
    Good to see mask wearing significantly higher on the tube this morning. Over 90% I would guess from about 60% a few weeks ago.

    Seems like the public might be ahead of the government. Not for the first time.
    Yes its a feature that as the news worsens, people will change behaviours.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481
    AlistairM said:

    In my area lots of people have had or have currently Covid. I was at the pub last night (not a mask in sight) after my weekly football game and it was a bit of a joke. About half of us there had already had Covid fairly recently. The rest were worried they would get it now in case it ruins their half term plans. Everyone who had it has had it mildly. Loads of their kids have had it too. There was a general view that everyone has or will be exposed to it and so long as you've been jabbed we just need to get on with it.

    The stats on Covid cases must be under-reported quite substantially also. Many people only detect it through LFTs and what about the millions who never bother taking them?

    I keep thinking that Covid must run out of people to infect soon but it has yet to happen. Surely the schools at the very least must be nearing that given the stories I know of half of classes going off with it (presumably the other half must have had it already and be immune).

    If the idea was to control Covid cases then the mistake was not jabbing the teenagers over the Summer.

    Also of interest and un-reported so far I believe is that cases are spiking in some parts of Europe. Belgium and Netherlands particularly but early signs of this in Germany too: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2021-08-09..latest&facet=none&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~ITA~CAN~DEU~GBR~FRA~BEL~NLD~ESP~AUS

    Lilico reckons schools will hit the point where cases drop a lot in about two or three weeks iirc.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,726
    Selebian said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:


    I'd instead favour not locking down - the consequence of not being vaccinated is that the rest of the country will no longer put life on hold to help you.

    But the hospitals are filling up with Covid patients, so routine surgeries are being cancelled. Vaccinated people are suffering because of the unvaccinated.
    DavidL said:

    Whilst that is undoubtedly a part of the response the problem is that the unvaccinated are clogging up our hospitals and preventing us from getting treatment for other things. What do we do about that consequence of their selfishness and stupidity?


    If an alcoholic gets cirrhosis of the liver then they'll only get on the transplant list if they give up alcohol.
    The obese are made to jump through all sorts of hoops if they wish to get bariatric surgery or similar.
    And so on.
    Liberty means having the right to make your own choices, it doesn't mean those choices being consequence-free.
    If the unvaccinated have to face consequences for their choices then that's their own choice.

    And others...

    All good points. However, what do we want to achieve? Punish the unvaccinated or encourage take-up? The unvaccinated are either hardcore anti-vax or believe themselves to be a low risk. I don't think threatening to withdraw care would have much effect on those who consider themselves invincible - if they're not scared of Covid then it's not going to help. It's a bit like saying to teenagers they won't receive treatment if they take an illegal drug - it's not going to change behaviour because the personal risk is perceived to be (and is) small.

    I think carrot and/or stick more useful - either use vaccine passports to make life a right pain for the unvaccinated (but this also inconveniences everyone else) or bribe people to get vaccinated (also apply retrospectively to those vaccinated). Costs would be manageable compared to NHS chaos or another vaccination.
    Nigelb said:

    Selebian said:

    I was never in the "it's no worse than flu" brigade, but I do think it might be instructive to have daily flu updates too, if we keep daily covid updates. Even the current figures are in line with a bad flu season, I would think? Of course, the current figures may get much worse before they get better, but comparison would help give some context.

    How many does flu put in intensive care for weeks at a time, though ?
    That's why the NHS is a bit panicked for this winter.
    Yep, good point. I think we'd be crazy to bring back restrictions to avert Covid deaths this winter, but there does come a point where restrictions could make sense to limit NHS load in the short term. However, we do need to have a long term view on that. This winter and that's it, well maybe that's doable- but how do we ensure that? More and better vaccinations? More infections providing natural protection? If what we're looking at is instead this problem every winter then instead we need to build the capacity to deal with it. Dust off the Nightingale facilities and have Covid cases outside of mainstream hospitals. Expensive and hard, but preferable to restrictions every winter.

    We are just going to have to gear up hospitals to cope with transmissible diseases again. We haven't had to do that in probably 70 years, other than in the young, the elderly and those who visit developing countries. Yes we may need fever hospitals again.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481

    I'm confused as to why being anti-lockdown is seen as right-wing and pro-lockdown left-wing.

    Lockdown is right-wing. It's separating everyone into their private homes, keeping the virus at bay beyond the fence. Left-wing politics is about the action of a collective - how can a collective act if it is atomized at home?

    Similarly it is an individual's duty to society to have the vaccine. If an individual rejects the help of society and medical science by rejecting the vaccine, then society has the right to reject that individual and bar them from blocking other people's use of medical science.

    All silly generalisations, but:
    Left wing are in favour of large government telling people what to do. This is *exactly* what lockdown has been.
    Right wing are in favour of smaller government, with people free to do what they want within certain bounds.

    Left wing are in favour of higher government spending - lockdowns have involved much higher spending.
    Right wing want lesser government spending.
    Indeed FPT in response to @RochdalePioneers claiming that those saying we need to learn to live with it are all former/current Tory members/voters (my reply went in after this thread was opened).

    Plenty of current or former Lib Dem members/voters are saying the same thing too.
    I said current / former Tory members on here. Out there is the world there is a broader spread of opinions (happily for society) than we get on PB.

    Depends what learning to live with means. I'm not a PB Tory member and I think we need to learn to live, certainly in the sense of no more lockdowns, schools being closed, cafes shuttered and so on. If a bit more mask wearing in shops is going to help then I can live with that (to be honest most people seem to still wear them in my neighbourhood).
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,173
    Selebian said:


    All good points. However, what do we want to achieve?
    ...
    Dust off the Nightingale facilities and have Covid cases outside of mainstream hospitals. Expensive and hard, but preferable to restrictions every winter.

    What I want to achieve is to protect the vaccinated from the anti-social choices of the unvaccinated.

    At the moment we are punishing the vaccinated by delaying their medical treatment to accommodate the unvaccinated in hospital. The proposed solution to this is to punish the vaccinated by restricting their lives to delay the infection of the unvaccinated.

    We need a better way. Nightingale hospitals for the unvaccinated is one approach. You could think of them as the secondary modern of the healthcare system.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 493
    OT I think the nudges the last couple of days will prove to be enough. Some of the data implies cases may well have peaked already, they were being a bit skewed firstly by the surge in kids and more recently by the SW anomalies, and as soon as they start falling everyone will relax again.

    I think there are two instincts on where we are in the pandemic and people fall into one or other camp as a result, regardless of politics. Either

    1. We have all been vaccinated, Covid is on the way to being endemic, so we will all either be already immune or catch it at some point. NPIs now essentially just shift the timing of when we catch it. In some ways the more infections now, the quicker we'll be out the other side. It might also be better to catch it now before vaccine immunity wanes further. Or

    2. Even if it's becoming endemic there remain ways we can suppress spread and these may make sense long term, like other public health measures such as sanitation have curbed other infections. Letting it rip seriously threatens the health system and is madness when we are in the process of administering boosters and can slow things down with a few minor adjustments like mask wearing.

    I am instinctively in group 1, although I can see the merits of some of the group 2 arguments. That puts me in a somewhat isolated position among the left of centre who seem to have shifted tribally into favouring restrictions largely because it's the opposite of what the Tories are doing.

    It's an interesting study in psychology which you see also in recessions - between 1. get it over with, short sharp shock and come out clean the other side, and 2. limit the short term damage even if it extends the pain a bit. Perhaps the political dimension on Covid reflects the same philosophies - Thatcherite create destruction vs Keynesian smoothing of the cycle.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207

    Selebian said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:


    I'd instead favour not locking down - the consequence of not being vaccinated is that the rest of the country will no longer put life on hold to help you.

    But the hospitals are filling up with Covid patients, so routine surgeries are being cancelled. Vaccinated people are suffering because of the unvaccinated.
    DavidL said:

    Whilst that is undoubtedly a part of the response the problem is that the unvaccinated are clogging up our hospitals and preventing us from getting treatment for other things. What do we do about that consequence of their selfishness and stupidity?


    If an alcoholic gets cirrhosis of the liver then they'll only get on the transplant list if they give up alcohol.
    The obese are made to jump through all sorts of hoops if they wish to get bariatric surgery or similar.
    And so on.
    Liberty means having the right to make your own choices, it doesn't mean those choices being consequence-free.
    If the unvaccinated have to face consequences for their choices then that's their own choice.

    And others...

    All good points. However, what do we want to achieve? Punish the unvaccinated or encourage take-up? The unvaccinated are either hardcore anti-vax or believe themselves to be a low risk. I don't think threatening to withdraw care would have much effect on those who consider themselves invincible - if they're not scared of Covid then it's not going to help. It's a bit like saying to teenagers they won't receive treatment if they take an illegal drug - it's not going to change behaviour because the personal risk is perceived to be (and is) small.

    I think carrot and/or stick more useful - either use vaccine passports to make life a right pain for the unvaccinated (but this also inconveniences everyone else) or bribe people to get vaccinated (also apply retrospectively to those vaccinated). Costs would be manageable compared to NHS chaos or another vaccination.
    Nigelb said:

    Selebian said:

    I was never in the "it's no worse than flu" brigade, but I do think it might be instructive to have daily flu updates too, if we keep daily covid updates. Even the current figures are in line with a bad flu season, I would think? Of course, the current figures may get much worse before they get better, but comparison would help give some context.

    How many does flu put in intensive care for weeks at a time, though ?
    That's why the NHS is a bit panicked for this winter.
    Yep, good point. I think we'd be crazy to bring back restrictions to avert Covid deaths this winter, but there does come a point where restrictions could make sense to limit NHS load in the short term. However, we do need to have a long term view on that. This winter and that's it, well maybe that's doable- but how do we ensure that? More and better vaccinations? More infections providing natural protection? If what we're looking at is instead this problem every winter then instead we need to build the capacity to deal with it. Dust off the Nightingale facilities and have Covid cases outside of mainstream hospitals. Expensive and hard, but preferable to restrictions every winter.

    We are just going to have to gear up hospitals to cope with transmissible diseases again. We haven't had to do that in probably 70 years, other than in the young, the elderly and those who visit developing countries. Yes we may need fever hospitals again.
    If we are to have any restrictions introduced it should be vaccine passports for hospitals.

    Send the unvaccinated to Nightingales.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,480

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    It’s not unknown for No 10’s loyalties (ho ho) to lurch in opposite directions within short periods of time. A couple of uncomfortable tabloid headlines and Bob is very much your uncle.
    Or, perchance, Carrie's your aunt?
    Why not your uncle
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Also, this

    Plan B of mask wearing and ban on indoor gatherings must be enforced immediately, warns NHS leader
    NHS Confederation chief said Covid restrictions including a return to working from home need to return or UK at risk of 'winter crisis'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/20/plan-b-mask-wearing-work-home-ban-indoor-gatherings/

    please insert "not" before "value" in my post above.

    There may be a case for compulsory facemasks in crowded areas again and mandatory vaccine passports for nightclubs and cinemas and big indoor venues if cases continue to rise, there is no case at all for a complete ban on indoor gatherings
    No. No. No.

    No vax ports. Madness. And totally disproportionate. We don't have a flu vax port even in the bad flu years.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207
    malcolmg said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    It’s not unknown for No 10’s loyalties (ho ho) to lurch in opposite directions within short periods of time. A couple of uncomfortable tabloid headlines and Bob is very much your uncle.
    Or, perchance, Carrie's your aunt?
    Why not your uncle
    Apparently the PC term is "pibling". Short for parent's sibling.

    I am not making that up.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,164
    AlistairM said:

    @rcs1000 Last night I wrote that vf.politicalbetting.com is intermittently causing my CPU to surge to 100% usage on Chrome (and williamglenn said the same is happening to him on Firefox) and you said to do Shift+Escape to check it is actually the tab that's causing the issue. Its just happened again and it is the tabs. No idea why its doing it, it started just over a week ago. No idea if its affecting anyone else other than william and myself.

    image

    For those of us who started on computers with 32KB of memory in the 1980s it does seem quite mad that a page of mainly text can consume over 381,000KB. It would have required 11,921 BBC B computers to store the Chrome memory requirements for this page.
    Some (not all) of it is because programmers have got lazy. It's easier to do things if you've got loads of memory. You can use non-specialist libraries rather than specialist ones; you can store more in caches. Most of all, user prize speed over memory, so memory usage matters less.

    when I was working in the embedded world, it as interesting to see new engineers coming in and having to rapidly readjust their mindset to the fact that memory matters. You can do an amazing amount in just a few KB, yet alone MB.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,940
    London reigns supreme as the world’s greenest finance hub, racing ahead of its European rivals to claim the sustainability crown.

    The City leapfrogged Amsterdam to nab top spot in a closely watched index ranking the world’s biggest finance hubs by their green credentials.


    https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-london-holds-the-crown-as-the-worlds-greenest-finance-hub/
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,852

    Selebian said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:


    I'd instead favour not locking down - the consequence of not being vaccinated is that the rest of the country will no longer put life on hold to help you.

    But the hospitals are filling up with Covid patients, so routine surgeries are being cancelled. Vaccinated people are suffering because of the unvaccinated.
    DavidL said:

    Whilst that is undoubtedly a part of the response the problem is that the unvaccinated are clogging up our hospitals and preventing us from getting treatment for other things. What do we do about that consequence of their selfishness and stupidity?


    If an alcoholic gets cirrhosis of the liver then they'll only get on the transplant list if they give up alcohol.
    The obese are made to jump through all sorts of hoops if they wish to get bariatric surgery or similar.
    And so on.
    Liberty means having the right to make your own choices, it doesn't mean those choices being consequence-free.
    If the unvaccinated have to face consequences for their choices then that's their own choice.

    And others...

    All good points. However, what do we want to achieve? Punish the unvaccinated or encourage take-up? The unvaccinated are either hardcore anti-vax or believe themselves to be a low risk. I don't think threatening to withdraw care would have much effect on those who consider themselves invincible - if they're not scared of Covid then it's not going to help. It's a bit like saying to teenagers they won't receive treatment if they take an illegal drug - it's not going to change behaviour because the personal risk is perceived to be (and is) small.

    I think carrot and/or stick more useful - either use vaccine passports to make life a right pain for the unvaccinated (but this also inconveniences everyone else) or bribe people to get vaccinated (also apply retrospectively to those vaccinated). Costs would be manageable compared to NHS chaos or another vaccination.
    Nigelb said:

    Selebian said:

    I was never in the "it's no worse than flu" brigade, but I do think it might be instructive to have daily flu updates too, if we keep daily covid updates. Even the current figures are in line with a bad flu season, I would think? Of course, the current figures may get much worse before they get better, but comparison would help give some context.

    How many does flu put in intensive care for weeks at a time, though ?
    That's why the NHS is a bit panicked for this winter.
    Yep, good point. I think we'd be crazy to bring back restrictions to avert Covid deaths this winter, but there does come a point where restrictions could make sense to limit NHS load in the short term. However, we do need to have a long term view on that. This winter and that's it, well maybe that's doable- but how do we ensure that? More and better vaccinations? More infections providing natural protection? If what we're looking at is instead this problem every winter then instead we need to build the capacity to deal with it. Dust off the Nightingale facilities and have Covid cases outside of mainstream hospitals. Expensive and hard, but preferable to restrictions every winter.

    We are just going to have to gear up hospitals to cope with transmissible diseases again. We haven't had to do that in probably 70 years, other than in the young, the elderly and those who visit developing countries. Yes we may need fever hospitals again.
    If we are to have any restrictions introduced it should be vaccine passports for hospitals.

    Send the unvaccinated to Nightingales.
    Exactly.

    If anti-vaxxers want their 'natural immunity' then they have to accept that there's nothing natural about a modern hospital.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,480
    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Value in no imv. If no 10 backed kwarteng over the treasury spat they are not going to hang him out to dry by putting him out to say things which ain't so a week later.

    Subject to the unpredictability of the virus, natch.

    Kwarteng is a dunderheid of the first order as well as a liar. Heard him on radio this morning , did not know anything on number of cars in UK, said iphones were significantly cheaper than when introduced so electric cars would be the same ( they are 3 x price of first iphones nowadays) and said it would be no problem as there would be chargers on the streets for people who lived in flats.
    Absolutely thick lying Tory drone.
    Just as well all our cars won't be made by Apple, then.
    Morning, malcolm.
    Morning Nigel
This discussion has been closed.