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Punters becoming less convinced of another CON majority – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    edited October 18

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    edited October 18
    isam said:

    Midterm polls have government leads and the PM has much, much better approval ratings than his opposite number.

    Tory majority certainly seems like good value.

    Labour majority a definite lay.

    That is wrong. Johnson has worse or at best equal approval ratings with Starmer.
    What are you basing that comment on Mike? I am keeping a record of all the leader ratings, and unless I have gone stark raving mad, Starmer only leads with Opinium on Net Satisfaction, and Boris leads in all the others




    Cherrypicking polls
    . Oh dear...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,770

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    It's quite a subtle problem.

    He can't go now without looking shifty. Can he?

    The next couple of years are going to be the Shawshank redemption bit, but with more tunneling through you-know-what and no certainty about redemption. That starts with the NI increase in Spring 2022. If Labour can't build up a meaningful lead then, they really are in trouble.

    And then, all of a sudden, it's 2024. And yes, the longer he leaves it, the more that "Brexit is in peril" could be met by "whatevs" or even "good". Or even "What do you mean, you've tied us into arrangements that stop us even thinking about EFTA. You mad psychos, what did you do that for?"
    As one pollster put it, the country was overwhelmingly in favour of invading Iraq and the ERM, when the shit hit the fan, it was like, nah, I was always opposed to those.
    Iraq war support was only 54%, say yougov https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2015/06/03/remembering-iraq
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    No way. Please. We just couldn’t go through that again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,484

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM
    People like Max and myself tell you that Sunak is a pound shop Gordon Brown and that Boris Johnson is a tax and spender.

    Raising taxes is already happening.
    Not as much as they would under Labour at the moment, however if they increase taxes further some Tories will start to wonder whether it is worth continuing in government under Boris and Sunak to continue an agenda identical to what Starmer would do. Or better to go into opposition under a red meat Tory like Patel or Rees-Mogg or a libertarian like Truss
    You could form your own party if you like but what is far more likely is that when Boris and Rishi raise taxes you will adjust your comments and agree
    I won't. If they do raise taxes significantly further then you will start to see real leakage to Reform UK from the Tory core vote which would let Starmer in by the backdoor anyway
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    It's quite a subtle problem.

    He can't go now without looking shifty. Can he?

    The next couple of years are going to be the Shawshank redemption bit, but with more tunneling through you-know-what and no certainty about redemption. That starts with the NI increase in Spring 2022. If Labour can't build up a meaningful lead then, they really are in trouble.

    And then, all of a sudden, it's 2024. And yes, the longer he leaves it, the more that "Brexit is in peril" could be met by "whatevs" or even "good". Or even "What do you mean, you've tied us into arrangements that stop us even thinking about EFTA. You mad psychos, what did you do that for?"
    As one pollster put it, the country was overwhelmingly in favour of invading Iraq and the ERM, when the shit hit the fan, it was like, nah, I was always opposed to those.
    Iraq war support was only 54%, say yougov https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2015/06/03/remembering-iraq
    We were using the figures excluding DKs, so it was something close to 60% supporting invading Iraq at the time.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549

    HYUFD said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM
    People like Max and myself tell you that Sunak is a pound shop Gordon Brown and that Boris Johnson is a tax and spender.

    Raising taxes is already happening.
    That's why I will vote Tory for the first time if Boris promises more of the same, and the useless nonentity is still Labour leader.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    Yes, Labour is holding onto Remainers well, and gaining Leavers with buyers remorse. Not enough yet, but if the dam breaks...

    SKS needs to be careful or he may get it wrong on Brexit a second time by overcompensating.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205

    IshmaelZ said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    It's quite a subtle problem.

    He can't go now without looking shifty. Can he?

    The next couple of years are going to be the Shawshank redemption bit, but with more tunneling through you-know-what and no certainty about redemption. That starts with the NI increase in Spring 2022. If Labour can't build up a meaningful lead then, they really are in trouble.

    And then, all of a sudden, it's 2024. And yes, the longer he leaves it, the more that "Brexit is in peril" could be met by "whatevs" or even "good". Or even "What do you mean, you've tied us into arrangements that stop us even thinking about EFTA. You mad psychos, what did you do that for?"
    As one pollster put it, the country was overwhelmingly in favour of invading Iraq and the ERM, when the shit hit the fan, it was like, nah, I was always opposed to those.
    Iraq war support was only 54%, say yougov https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2015/06/03/remembering-iraq
    We were using the figures excluding DKs, so it was something close to 60% supporting invading Iraq at the time.
    You had the same phenomenon after Suez. Around 55% in favour at the time of the war, around 95% false recall among supporters as it became obvious Eden had lied.
  • ydoethur said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    No way. Please. We just couldn’t go through that again.
    Brexit is the reenactment of the Battles of Ypres.

    The first battle has just ended.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,484
    Fishing said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.
    I've fantasised at times about joining just so I can get "political party leader" on my CV.
    But then you may become a politically exposed person and that's a real pain in the arse.

    https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/en/topics/anti-money-laundering/peps
    I decided long ago that a political career wasn't for me - I don't have a thick enough skin and, quite frankly, although I find it interesting I suspect it'd make me miserable.
    No idea why anybody would want it frankly:

    - constant exposure
    - often punishing hours
    - pretty awful money
    - being blamed for things you've nothing to do with, especially when it was what the journalist was advocating yesterday
    - low job security - one trivial slip and you're out.
    - and, apparently, the threat of assassination.

    I've seen better job adverts.
    Public service, plus power, plus while MPs pay will not make them rich it is still better than 95% of their constituents
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,266

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    All those people putting opinion polls above actual election outcomes to say no indyref2... you are all presumably in favour of a rejoin referendum now?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,395
    Foxy said:

    I see UKIP have a new leader.

    https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1450133924924084231?t=ZYu_SebG0Ealkry7G9yDoQ&s=19

    Remember when accepting cash for questions was considered scandalous? Now a bit of graft is almost compulsory.

    Why the hell do they still exist? Do they think we haven't Brexited enough or something?!!!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    It's quite a subtle problem.

    He can't go now without looking shifty. Can he?

    The next couple of years are going to be the Shawshank redemption bit, but with more tunneling through you-know-what and no certainty about redemption. That starts with the NI increase in Spring 2022. If Labour can't build up a meaningful lead then, they really are in trouble.

    And then, all of a sudden, it's 2024. And yes, the longer he leaves it, the more that "Brexit is in peril" could be met by "whatevs" or even "good". Or even "What do you mean, you've tied us into arrangements that stop us even thinking about EFTA. You mad psychos, what did you do that for?"
    As one pollster put it, the country was overwhelmingly in favour of invading Iraq and the ERM, when the shit hit the fan, it was like, nah, I was always opposed to those.
    Iraq war support was only 54%, say yougov https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2015/06/03/remembering-iraq
    We were using the figures excluding DKs, so it was something close to 60% supporting invading Iraq at the time.
    You had the same phenomenon after Suez. Around 55% in favour at the time of the war, around 95% false recall among supporters as it became obvious Eden had lied.
    Suez is over-rated as a "crisis".

    Post-Suez the Tory Government was 'punished' by gaining 20 extra MPs and a 100 seat majority.
  • Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    ydoethur said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    No way. Please. We just couldn’t go through that again.
    I've said before that the long-term "stable" situation is creeping back to some form of common market plus qualified movement of workers - with limits, no political union/federalism whatsoever, and bilateral/multilateral cooperation on areas of mutual interest.

    But, surprisingly moderate people have marched off to the extremes on both sides and show no signs of learning anything or coming in.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    It's quite a subtle problem.

    He can't go now without looking shifty. Can he?

    The next couple of years are going to be the Shawshank redemption bit, but with more tunneling through you-know-what and no certainty about redemption. That starts with the NI increase in Spring 2022. If Labour can't build up a meaningful lead then, they really are in trouble.

    And then, all of a sudden, it's 2024. And yes, the longer he leaves it, the more that "Brexit is in peril" could be met by "whatevs" or even "good". Or even "What do you mean, you've tied us into arrangements that stop us even thinking about EFTA. You mad psychos, what did you do that for?"
    As one pollster put it, the country was overwhelmingly in favour of invading Iraq and the ERM, when the shit hit the fan, it was like, nah, I was always opposed to those.
    Iraq war support was only 54%, say yougov https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2015/06/03/remembering-iraq
    We were using the figures excluding DKs, so it was something close to 60% supporting invading Iraq at the time.
    You had the same phenomenon after Suez. Around 55% in favour at the time of the war, around 95% false recall among supporters as it became obvious Eden had lied.
    Suez is over-rated as a "crisis".

    Post-Suez the Tory Government was 'punished' by gaining 20 extra MPs and a 100 seat majority.
    A point also made by Robert Blake. But there were suggestions from inter alia Iain Macleod that it did the Tories considerable longer-term damage, particularly alienating them from the more educated upper middle class voters who had previously been the bedrock of the party leadership.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475
    Foxy said:

    Despatches on C4 is pretty brutal on NHS failures, and the reasons for them.

    Is the reason, possibly, the Tories ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
    Who says France will be in the EU to stop us?
  • Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
    Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres

    What better sign for the rest of the EU that those who leave will come back.

    If we do rejoin it'll be because Brexit has turned out badly and thus we'd be supplicants in any deal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893
    CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    I see UKIP have a new leader.

    https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1450133924924084231?t=ZYu_SebG0Ealkry7G9yDoQ&s=19

    Remember when accepting cash for questions was considered scandalous? Now a bit of graft is almost compulsory.

    Why the hell do they still exist? Do they think we haven't Brexited enough or something?!!!
    They're preparing for Brexit2 after we rejoin. It's a long game.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    ydoethur said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    No way. Please. We just couldn’t go through that again.
    I've said before that the long-term "stable" situation is creeping back to some form of common market plus qualified movement of workers - with limits, no political union/federalism whatsoever, and bilateral/multilateral cooperation on areas of mutual interest.

    But, surprisingly moderate people have marched off to the extremes on both sides and show no signs of learning anything or coming in.
    I think we're pretty close to the "stable" situation actually, much as there's more heat than light in discussions at the moment.

    No free movement, no political union, but we do have co-operation on areas of mutual interest and we have a zero-tariff, zero-quota free trade agreement. Once the NI issue is resolved in the next few weeks, then we'll be far closer to a stable solution. What's going to be re-opened and why?

    We're not realistically going to go for financial services passporting if that means following Brussels rules we don't get a say in, the City is too important to delegate our rules to a third country. And the City has shown it can cope without passporting.

    We're not realistically going to join a customs union - there's a reason not one of the EFTA nations have done that and as we gain new deals with the likes of Australia and the CPTPP we'll have more to give up without anything to gain.

    So what's going to be worth the hassle of reopening divisions over?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    No, it would need to stop there. You can't ever fully put the genie back in the box and nor can you answer it by going even further in the other direction.

    The most (only) credible route to rejoin is that the EU itself changes: it amends its structures and treaties so you have a choice of being an inner core member (with euro and fiscal and social union) or outer core member (just the trade and economics) with both having votes in the common market as a whole and foreign/security policy being ad-hoc or opt in across it.

    I'd say a generation of European politicians would need to pass first. It's not like the EU in its present form isn't going anywhere and is currently politically deadlocked.

    Brexit has changed it too.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,035
    edited October 18
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.
    I've fantasised at times about joining just so I can get "political party leader" on my CV.
    But then you may become a politically exposed person and that's a real pain in the arse.

    https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/en/topics/anti-money-laundering/peps
    I decided long ago that a political career wasn't for me - I don't have a thick enough skin and, quite frankly, although I find it interesting I suspect it'd make me miserable.
    No idea why anybody would want it frankly:

    - constant exposure
    - often punishing hours
    - pretty awful money
    - being blamed for things you've nothing to do with, especially when it was what the journalist was advocating yesterday
    - low job security - one trivial slip and you're out.
    - and, apparently, the threat of assassination.

    I've seen better job adverts.
    Public service, plus power, plus while MPs pay will not make them rich it is still better than 95% of their constituents
    True, also self-importance, megalomania, narcissism and publicity seeking.

    I seriously doubt the pay is much of a factor, though. In fact, particularly amongst the Conservatives, it must be a serious deterrent. Most will see their peers at Russell Group universities earning far more. Of course there is always extra-Parliamentary work, but that has its own drawbacks.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    I see UKIP have a new leader.

    https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1450133924924084231?t=ZYu_SebG0Ealkry7G9yDoQ&s=19

    Remember when accepting cash for questions was considered scandalous? Now a bit of graft is almost compulsory.

    Why the hell do they still exist? Do they think we haven't Brexited enough or something?!!!
    Apparently they are opposed to FGM.

    Unlike other parties, who are, er opposed to it...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    ydoethur said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    No way. Please. We just couldn’t go through that again.
    I've said before that the long-term "stable" situation is creeping back to some form of common market plus qualified movement of workers - with limits, no political union/federalism whatsoever, and bilateral/multilateral cooperation on areas of mutual interest.

    But, surprisingly moderate people have marched off to the extremes on both sides and show no signs of learning anything or coming in.
    I think we're pretty close to the "stable" situation actually, much as there's more heat than light in discussions at the moment.

    No free movement, no political union, but we do have co-operation on areas of mutual interest and we have a zero-tariff, zero-quota free trade agreement. Once the NI issue is resolved in the next few weeks, then we'll be far closer to a stable solution. What's going to be re-opened and why?

    We're not realistically going to go for financial services passporting if that means following Brussels rules we don't get a say in, the City is too important to delegate our rules to a third country. And the City has shown it can cope without passporting.

    We're not realistically going to join a customs union - there's a reason not one of the EFTA nations have done that and as we gain new deals with the likes of Australia and the CPTPP we'll have more to give up without anything to gain.

    So what's going to be worth the hassle of reopening divisions over?
    Personally, I think Brexit is going fine - aside from the Statist take Boris is offering - but that doesn't mean the politics of it won't change over time.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
    Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres

    What better sign for the rest of the EU that those who leave will come back.

    If we do rejoin it'll be because Brexit has turned out badly and thus we'd be supplicants in any deal.
    Exactly which is why if we're supplicants then they'd have no reason to want it dealing with incrementally. They'd want their pound of flesh.

    And the only way to avoid a hokey-cokey membership would be to say that we can rejoin provided we join the Euro and Schengen on the day we accede, no backsliding then.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
    Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres

    What better sign for the rest of the EU that those who leave will come back.

    If we do rejoin it'll be because Brexit has turned out badly and thus we'd be supplicants in any deal.
    No, that's the wrong analysis.

    This is where Remainers get it badly wrong, and succumb to their own propaganda.

    Sigh.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    It's quite a subtle problem.

    He can't go now without looking shifty. Can he?

    The next couple of years are going to be the Shawshank redemption bit, but with more tunneling through you-know-what and no certainty about redemption. That starts with the NI increase in Spring 2022. If Labour can't build up a meaningful lead then, they really are in trouble.

    And then, all of a sudden, it's 2024. And yes, the longer he leaves it, the more that "Brexit is in peril" could be met by "whatevs" or even "good". Or even "What do you mean, you've tied us into arrangements that stop us even thinking about EFTA. You mad psychos, what did you do that for?"
    As one pollster put it, the country was overwhelmingly in favour of invading Iraq and the ERM, when the shit hit the fan, it was like, nah, I was always opposed to those.
    Iraq war support was only 54%, say yougov https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2015/06/03/remembering-iraq
    We were using the figures excluding DKs, so it was something close to 60% supporting invading Iraq at the time.
    You had the same phenomenon after Suez. Around 55% in favour at the time of the war, around 95% false recall among supporters as it became obvious Eden had lied.
    Suez is over-rated as a "crisis".

    Post-Suez the Tory Government was 'punished' by gaining 20 extra MPs and a 100 seat majority.
    A point also made by Robert Blake. But there were suggestions from inter alia Iain Macleod that it did the Tories considerable longer-term damage, particularly alienating them from the more educated upper middle class voters who had previously been the bedrock of the party leadership.
    Yes it took a while in the nineties too, but Suez paved the way for Wilson.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    Foxy said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    Yes, Labour is holding onto Remainers well, and gaining Leavers with buyers remorse. Not enough yet, but if the dam breaks...

    SKS needs to be careful or he may get it wrong on Brexit a second time by overcompensating.

    If that does happen the risk is it goes to their heads and their hand is massively overplayed.

    A very good politician would recognise Britain is divided and come up with a long-term compromise that 70%+ could be satisfied with.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    It depends how the question was asked. Believe no.polls until the evidence is overwhelming and then mistrust them still.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    ydoethur said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    No way. Please. We just couldn’t go through that again.
    I've said before that the long-term "stable" situation is creeping back to some form of common market plus qualified movement of workers - with limits, no political union/federalism whatsoever, and bilateral/multilateral cooperation on areas of mutual interest.

    But, surprisingly moderate people have marched off to the extremes on both sides and show no signs of learning anything or coming in.
    I think we're pretty close to the "stable" situation actually, much as there's more heat than light in discussions at the moment.

    No free movement, no political union, but we do have co-operation on areas of mutual interest and we have a zero-tariff, zero-quota free trade agreement. Once the NI issue is resolved in the next few weeks, then we'll be far closer to a stable solution. What's going to be re-opened and why?

    We're not realistically going to go for financial services passporting if that means following Brussels rules we don't get a say in, the City is too important to delegate our rules to a third country. And the City has shown it can cope without passporting.

    We're not realistically going to join a customs union - there's a reason not one of the EFTA nations have done that and as we gain new deals with the likes of Australia and the CPTPP we'll have more to give up without anything to gain.

    So what's going to be worth the hassle of reopening divisions over?
    Personally, I think Brexit is going fine - aside from the Statist take Boris is offering - but that doesn't mean the politics of it won't change over time.
    Oh absolutely, but the Statist take Boris is offering isn't Brexit-related, its that Sunak has gone native and Boris is too keen on spending. That's domestic not Brexit and will only be reversed via domestic elections.

    The politics of our relations with Europe will evolve over time, like the Swiss, but I think the general framework that Frost has negotiated by and large will last. It will evolve, but I can't see us either tearing up the TCA and going to WTO, or rejoining the EFTA/EU.

    Quite simply we've cherrypicked free trade without the politics and without free movement. Whatever else we 'gain' from joining the EFTA from here is pretty miniscule and won't win a referendum or votes I suspect.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Despatches on C4 is pretty brutal on NHS failures, and the reasons for them.

    Is the reason, possibly, the Tories ?
    Strangely, no.

    It was actually Tory scum that was the real problem.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    It depends how the question was asked. Believe no.polls until the evidence is overwhelming and then mistrust them still.
    Yes, it's worth noting Stay Out and "right (decision to leave)" had strong leads as recently as May at the height of our vaccine success. That's only 5 months ago.

    They are sensitive to how much we talk about Brexit (people really don't like hearing or reading about it, and want the subject to go away) and if we're doing obviously better than our European neighbours or not, or if they're being dicks to us or not.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753
    Russia to suspend direct diplomatic ties with NATO from November with the bloc’s Moscow mission ordered to close – Sergei Lavrov

    https://www.rt.com/russia/537765-russia-to-suspend-diplomatic-ties-nato/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Despatches on C4 is pretty brutal on NHS failures, and the reasons for them.

    Is the reason, possibly, the Tories ?
    No, that was barely mentioned. A much wider selection of woes than financial, and no mention of the virus.
  • Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    Before even that, there's a step of "stop being dicks about food regulations"; at the moment, BoJo doesn't seem willing to take that step. But once you have done that, each step makes sense on a cost-benefit analysis. Ending with "we're subject to the rules, we might as well have formal input into them..."

    Incrementalism is undignified, and will annoy those who want to go faster. However, that Eurostar departed in 2016 and picked up speed in 2019. Whatever his other faults, Starmer's pitching on Europe (we can't bin Brexit (now) but it's not currently embraceable and needs some housetraining) is probably about right.

    Looking at it another way, if the public end up settling on a view where the majority think that Brexit is going badly and was a mistake, what should the government do?
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Despatches on C4 is pretty brutal on NHS failures, and the reasons for them.

    Is the reason, possibly, the Tories ?
    Strangely, no.

    It was actually Tory scum that was the real problem.
    I thought as much.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,629

    HYUFD said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM
    People like Max and myself tell you that Sunak is a pound shop Gordon Brown and that Boris Johnson is a tax and spender.

    Raising taxes is already happening.
    That's why I will vote Tory for the first time if Boris promises more of the same, and the useless nonentity is still Labour leader.
    So you've already fucked off and joined the Tories? :lol:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    ydoethur said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    No way. Please. We just couldn’t go through that again.
    I've said before that the long-term "stable" situation is creeping back to some form of common market plus qualified movement of workers - with limits, no political union/federalism whatsoever, and bilateral/multilateral cooperation on areas of mutual interest.

    But, surprisingly moderate people have marched off to the extremes on both sides and show no signs of learning anything or coming in.
    I think we're pretty close to the "stable" situation actually, much as there's more heat than light in discussions at the moment.

    No free movement, no political union, but we do have co-operation on areas of mutual interest and we have a zero-tariff, zero-quota free trade agreement. Once the NI issue is resolved in the next few weeks, then we'll be far closer to a stable solution. What's going to be re-opened and why?

    We're not realistically going to go for financial services passporting if that means following Brussels rules we don't get a say in, the City is too important to delegate our rules to a third country. And the City has shown it can cope without passporting.

    We're not realistically going to join a customs union - there's a reason not one of the EFTA nations have done that and as we gain new deals with the likes of Australia and the CPTPP we'll have more to give up without anything to gain.

    So what's going to be worth the hassle of reopening divisions over?
    Personally, I think Brexit is going fine - aside from the Statist take Boris is offering - but that doesn't mean the politics of it won't change over time.
    Oh absolutely, but the Statist take Boris is offering isn't Brexit-related, its that Sunak has gone native and Boris is too keen on spending. That's domestic not Brexit and will only be reversed via domestic elections.

    The politics of our relations with Europe will evolve over time, like the Swiss, but I think the general framework that Frost has negotiated by and large will last. It will evolve, but I can't see us either tearing up the TCA and going to WTO, or rejoining the EFTA/EU.

    Quite simply we've cherrypicked free trade without the politics and without free movement. Whatever else we 'gain' from joining the EFTA from here is pretty miniscule and won't win a referendum or votes I suspect.
    If I were Boris I'd review the whole regulatory book, and our tax and migration policy, for radical reforms that'd allow us to take advantage of future technology and growth over the next 5-10 years.

    We can move and respond faster than any of our EU counterparts - let's use it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475

    Foxy said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    Yes, Labour is holding onto Remainers well, and gaining Leavers with buyers remorse. Not enough yet, but if the dam breaks...

    SKS needs to be careful or he may get it wrong on Brexit a second time by overcompensating.

    If that does happen the risk is it goes to their heads and their hand is massively overplayed.

    A very good politician would recognise Britain is divided and come up with a long-term compromise that 70%+ could be satisfied with.
    I know it is Guido so caveat emptor,however it looks like many of the newly approved future candidates are All open border supporting remainers. Hardly a mix of opinions to bring a long term compromise.

    https://order-order.com/2021/10/18/far-left-outraged-as-labour-announces-swathe-of-centrist-remainer-candidates/
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,263
    It'd make my day week year if Labour had a "Harry Truman" election.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    Yes, Labour is holding onto Remainers well, and gaining Leavers with buyers remorse. Not enough yet, but if the dam breaks...

    SKS needs to be careful or he may get it wrong on Brexit a second time by overcompensating.

    If that does happen the risk is it goes to their heads and their hand is massively overplayed.

    A very good politician would recognise Britain is divided and come up with a long-term compromise that 70%+ could be satisfied with.
    I know it is Guido so caveat emptor,however it looks like many of the newly approved future candidates are All open border supporting remainers. Hardly a mix of opinions to bring a long term compromise.

    https://order-order.com/2021/10/18/far-left-outraged-as-labour-announces-swathe-of-centrist-remainer-candidates/
    I think Labour has been wholly captured by hard Remainers and the radical wing of the Wokerati.

    It massively restricts Starmer's scope for manoeuvre.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    It depends how the question was asked. Believe no.polls until the evidence is overwhelming and then mistrust them still.
    Yes, it's worth noting Stay Out and "right (decision to leave)" had strong leads as recently as May at the height of our vaccine success. That's only 5 months ago.

    They are sensitive to how much we talk about Brexit (people really don't like hearing or reading about it, and want the subject to go away) and if we're doing obviously better than our European neighbours or not, or if they're being dicks to us or not.
    Ironically Northern Ireland being on the news has probably helped the pro-EU sides numbers.

    Which is ironic as the only reason Northern Ireland has been on the news is because Frost is dealing with it, getting the Protocol rewritten on a more stable longterm footing and even sensible Remainers and Europeans now accept that Frost 'holds all the cards' in this negotiation. Even the EU have accepted the Protocol needs to be reformed.

    So its ironic because the UK is getting what it wants, but the people who don't want Brexit on the news are just seeing it on the news and being negative about that.

    Once the Protocol is put on a more stable, long-term footing then the issue goes away again, this time probably for good.

    So this is the last dying gasp of Remainerism.
  • Toms said:

    It'd make my day week year if Labour had a "Harry Truman" election.

    You mean Starmer will quit before he loses a general election?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,263

    Toms said:

    It'd make my day week year if Labour had a "Harry Truman" election.

    You mean Starmer will quit before he loses a general election?
    Whatever.
  • Toms said:

    Toms said:

    It'd make my day week year if Labour had a "Harry Truman" election.

    You mean Starmer will quit before he loses a general election?
    Whatever.
    I'm a huge Truman fan.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    Yes, Labour is holding onto Remainers well, and gaining Leavers with buyers remorse. Not enough yet, but if the dam breaks...

    SKS needs to be careful or he may get it wrong on Brexit a second time by overcompensating.

    If that does happen the risk is it goes to their heads and their hand is massively overplayed.

    A very good politician would recognise Britain is divided and come up with a long-term compromise that 70%+ could be satisfied with.
    I know it is Guido so caveat emptor,however it looks like many of the newly approved future candidates are All open border supporting remainers. Hardly a mix of opinions to bring a long term compromise.

    https://order-order.com/2021/10/18/far-left-outraged-as-labour-announces-swathe-of-centrist-remainer-candidates/
    Yes, so representative of the party. The Leavers in the Labour party are a few hard left relics and a few opportunists, as well as a number of "it's happened and we have to live with it" pragmatists.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,263

    Toms said:

    Toms said:

    It'd make my day week year if Labour had a "Harry Truman" election.

    You mean Starmer will quit before he loses a general election?
    Whatever.
    I'm a huge Truman fan.
    And me. His culture?
    "I'm from Missouri: show me"
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,585

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
    Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres

    What better sign for the rest of the EU that those who leave will come back.

    If we do rejoin it'll be because Brexit has turned out badly and thus we'd be supplicants in any deal.
    Exactly which is why if we're supplicants then they'd have no reason to want it dealing with incrementally. They'd want their pound of flesh.

    And the only way to avoid a hokey-cokey membership would be to say that we can rejoin provided we join the Euro and Schengen on the day we accede, no backsliding then.
    Even if the UK wanted to, that couldn't happen. IIRC a country has to be in the ERM for something like three years before it can adopt the Euro, and there are a lot of requirements to accede to Schengen, not least actual exit controls with border guards stamping passports which the UK does not do.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475
    edited October 18
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    Yes, Labour is holding onto Remainers well, and gaining Leavers with buyers remorse. Not enough yet, but if the dam breaks...

    SKS needs to be careful or he may get it wrong on Brexit a second time by overcompensating.

    If that does happen the risk is it goes to their heads and their hand is massively overplayed.

    A very good politician would recognise Britain is divided and come up with a long-term compromise that 70%+ could be satisfied with.
    I know it is Guido so caveat emptor,however it looks like many of the newly approved future candidates are All open border supporting remainers. Hardly a mix of opinions to bring a long term compromise.

    https://order-order.com/2021/10/18/far-left-outraged-as-labour-announces-swathe-of-centrist-remainer-candidates/
    Yes, so representative of the party. The Leavers in the Labour party are a few hard left relics and a few opportunists, as well as a number of "it's happened and we have to live with it" pragmatists.
    Representative of an element of the current activist base for sure but not the party as a whole. However if you are looking for a mix of opinions to bring,out a Long term compromise you’re unlikely to get it with FBPE type,fanatics.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    Yes, Labour is holding onto Remainers well, and gaining Leavers with buyers remorse. Not enough yet, but if the dam breaks...

    SKS needs to be careful or he may get it wrong on Brexit a second time by overcompensating.

    If that does happen the risk is it goes to their heads and their hand is massively overplayed.

    A very good politician would recognise Britain is divided and come up with a long-term compromise that 70%+ could be satisfied with.
    I know it is Guido so caveat emptor,however it looks like many of the newly approved future candidates are All open border supporting remainers. Hardly a mix of opinions to bring a long term compromise.

    https://order-order.com/2021/10/18/far-left-outraged-as-labour-announces-swathe-of-centrist-remainer-candidates/
    Yes, so representative of the party. The Leavers in the Labour party are a few hard left relics and a few opportunists, as well as a number of "it's happened and we have to live with it" pragmatists.
    Which is part of why the Labour Party in unelectable.

    "It was voted for democratically, so we have to make the most of it" really ought to have been a higher proportion than it was.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,819

    The other black swan I think is possible is the NHS keeling over before the next GE, I suspect some will understand it is related to the NHS but given the way the public views the NHS the party that allows the NHS to collapse will take a huge hit in the polls and ballot box.

    I'm in a few Tory WhatsApp groups and there's real fury about the government not doing enough to force face to face GP appointments.

    Which is ironic as 1 face to face interview probably takes the same time as 2 or even 3 phone a electronic or phone appointments
  • eekeek Posts: 15,819

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    Doesn’t it have to be after October 2023 to get the new constituencies which gives Boris 10 or so seats
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    Yes, Labour is holding onto Remainers well, and gaining Leavers with buyers remorse. Not enough yet, but if the dam breaks...

    SKS needs to be careful or he may get it wrong on Brexit a second time by overcompensating.

    If that does happen the risk is it goes to their heads and their hand is massively overplayed.

    A very good politician would recognise Britain is divided and come up with a long-term compromise that 70%+ could be satisfied with.
    I know it is Guido so caveat emptor,however it looks like many of the newly approved future candidates are All open border supporting remainers. Hardly a mix of opinions to bring a long term compromise.

    https://order-order.com/2021/10/18/far-left-outraged-as-labour-announces-swathe-of-centrist-remainer-candidates/
    I think Labour has been wholly captured by hard Remainers and the radical wing of the Wokerati.

    It massively restricts Starmer's scope for manoeuvre.
    Labour is merely now a vehicle of special interest groups. It’s effectively subcontracted it’s policy making out to groups,like BLM, Exctinction Rebellion, stonewall, FBPE,via its vocal activist base. Quite how this will,coalesce to a viable manifesto remans to be seen. It says little on the economy.

    I shall vote labour again if my MP stands again. If he doesn’t I won’t vote for anyone.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    rpjs said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
    Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres

    What better sign for the rest of the EU that those who leave will come back.

    If we do rejoin it'll be because Brexit has turned out badly and thus we'd be supplicants in any deal.
    Exactly which is why if we're supplicants then they'd have no reason to want it dealing with incrementally. They'd want their pound of flesh.

    And the only way to avoid a hokey-cokey membership would be to say that we can rejoin provided we join the Euro and Schengen on the day we accede, no backsliding then.
    Even if the UK wanted to, that couldn't happen. IIRC a country has to be in the ERM for something like three years before it can adopt the Euro, and there are a lot of requirements to accede to Schengen, not least actual exit controls with border guards stamping passports which the UK does not do.
    Accession requires unanimity anyway and unanimity allows the Treaties to be changed.

    I see no reason why as part of the negotiations over the Acquis Communitaire if we were to crawl back to the EU to ask to be let back in, that the EU couldn't demand that we join (or shadow join) the ERM II. Then have the 3 years of ERM as part of our joining procedure and then accession to the EU and Euro simultaneously.

    Any barriers on the UK acceding to Schengen could similarly be dealt with as part of the Acquis Communitaire process.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 940

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.
    I've fantasised at times about joining just so I can get "political party leader" on my CV.
    But then you may become a politically exposed person and that's a real pain in the arse.

    https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/en/topics/anti-money-laundering/peps
    I decided long ago that a political career wasn't for me - I don't have a thick enough skin and, quite frankly, although I find it interesting I suspect it'd make me miserable.
    I think when most people see what it is really like, they give up on the idea. Of course, there are no end of willing volunteers, most of whom are completely and utterly unsuitable for public office of any kind. Fortunately enough good people get through and make a decent go of it; but the situation seems to have gone badly downhill in the Labour party looking at recent disasters (Jared O'Mara, Fiona Onasanya, Claudia Webbe, just to name a few).

    Having worked with politicians, I think the hardest part must be living with the contradictions, and having to sincerely advocate for things that they know are obviously wrong. Every job involves a degree of this, but it is extreme when working in politics, and you are in the public eye nonstop.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    eek said:

    The other black swan I think is possible is the NHS keeling over before the next GE, I suspect some will understand it is related to the NHS but given the way the public views the NHS the party that allows the NHS to collapse will take a huge hit in the polls and ballot box.

    I'm in a few Tory WhatsApp groups and there's real fury about the government not doing enough to force face to face GP appointments.

    Which is ironic as 1 face to face interview probably takes the same time as 2 or even 3 phone a electronic or phone appointments
    Indeed, the shift to telephone triage is why 46% of appointments face to face were same day.

    I am not a fan of remote consultations, and don't do them myself, but forcing f2f consultations without the capacity won't work.
  • eek said:

    The other black swan I think is possible is the NHS keeling over before the next GE, I suspect some will understand it is related to the NHS but given the way the public views the NHS the party that allows the NHS to collapse will take a huge hit in the polls and ballot box.

    I'm in a few Tory WhatsApp groups and there's real fury about the government not doing enough to force face to face GP appointments.

    Which is ironic as 1 face to face interview probably takes the same time as 2 or even 3 phone a electronic or phone appointments
    I think it is a generational thing.

    Older people (who are likely to have medical issues) want to have face to face appointments, younger patients aren't fussed.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    It depends how the question was asked. Believe no.polls until the evidence is overwhelming and then mistrust them still.
    Yes, it's worth noting Stay Out and "right (decision to leave)" had strong leads as recently as May at the height of our vaccine success. That's only 5 months ago.

    They are sensitive to how much we talk about Brexit (people really don't like hearing or reading about it, and want the subject to go away) and if we're doing obviously better than our European neighbours or not, or if they're being dicks to us or not.
    Ironically Northern Ireland being on the news has probably helped the pro-EU sides numbers.

    Which is ironic as the only reason Northern Ireland has been on the news is because Frost is dealing with it, getting the Protocol rewritten on a more stable longterm footing and even sensible Remainers and Europeans now accept that Frost 'holds all the cards' in this negotiation. Even the EU have accepted the Protocol needs to be reformed.

    So its ironic because the UK is getting what it wants, but the people who don't want Brexit on the news are just seeing it on the news and being negative about that.

    Once the Protocol is put on a more stable, long-term footing then the issue goes away again, this time probably for good.

    So this is the last dying gasp of Remainerism.
    I think it's much more likely related the petrol shortages and doom mongering over Christmas from the usual suspects. As we've seen, petrol is now back to normal and Christmas will be the same as every other one.

    Ultimately the government has failed to get the HGV industry to accept the new normal and giving in over visas hasn't helped. UK trucking companies have to deal with higher wages, better conditions and working hours to get people into their funnel additionally the government needs to deliver testing capacity. In reality both sides have failed to do this for 5 years and now have 6-12 months to fix it.
  • eek said:

    The other black swan I think is possible is the NHS keeling over before the next GE, I suspect some will understand it is related to the NHS but given the way the public views the NHS the party that allows the NHS to collapse will take a huge hit in the polls and ballot box.

    I'm in a few Tory WhatsApp groups and there's real fury about the government not doing enough to force face to face GP appointments.

    Which is ironic as 1 face to face interview probably takes the same time as 2 or even 3 phone a electronic or phone appointments
    Which is why, until quite recently, the government was pushing remote appointments and more tirage. It's significantly more efficient.

    But it's not what the punters want.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,554

    eek said:

    The other black swan I think is possible is the NHS keeling over before the next GE, I suspect some will understand it is related to the NHS but given the way the public views the NHS the party that allows the NHS to collapse will take a huge hit in the polls and ballot box.

    I'm in a few Tory WhatsApp groups and there's real fury about the government not doing enough to force face to face GP appointments.

    Which is ironic as 1 face to face interview probably takes the same time as 2 or even 3 phone a electronic or phone appointments
    Which is why, until quite recently, the government was pushing remote appointments and more tirage. It's significantly more efficient.

    But it's not what the punters want.
    It’s tricky, isn’t it. My wife and I are really happy to use e-consult, which for me has been far better than other ways to access the mostly simple requests I have. But for elderly patients, as has been said who are often the ones who need most help, they feel the need to physically attend.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,629

    Toms said:

    Toms said:

    It'd make my day week year if Labour had a "Harry Truman" election.

    You mean Starmer will quit before he loses a general election?
    Whatever.
    I'm a huge Truman fan.
    "In case I don't see ya, good afternoon, good evening and goodnight." :lol:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    edited October 18

    eek said:

    The other black swan I think is possible is the NHS keeling over before the next GE, I suspect some will understand it is related to the NHS but given the way the public views the NHS the party that allows the NHS to collapse will take a huge hit in the polls and ballot box.

    I'm in a few Tory WhatsApp groups and there's real fury about the government not doing enough to force face to face GP appointments.

    Which is ironic as 1 face to face interview probably takes the same time as 2 or even 3 phone a electronic or phone appointments
    Which is why, until quite recently, the government was pushing remote appointments and more tirage. It's significantly more efficient.

    But it's not what the punters want.
    It’s tricky, isn’t it. My wife and I are really happy to use e-consult, which for me has been far better than other ways to access the mostly simple requests I have. But for elderly patients, as has been said who are often the ones who need most help, they feel the need to physically attend.
    58% of GP consultations are f2f, and I think the average GP does 26 a day. The point is though that while also organising Flu and covid vaccinations, as well as dealing with a lot of stuff that we in the hospital services have abandoned to them, there are limits to their capacity.

    Primary care is the key to a successful NHS, and is in desperate need of investment to do so. It is 90% of patient contacts and 10% of the budget. I really admire my colleagues who are GPs. It is a job that I couldn't do.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,873

    eek said:

    The other black swan I think is possible is the NHS keeling over before the next GE, I suspect some will understand it is related to the NHS but given the way the public views the NHS the party that allows the NHS to collapse will take a huge hit in the polls and ballot box.

    I'm in a few Tory WhatsApp groups and there's real fury about the government not doing enough to force face to face GP appointments.

    Which is ironic as 1 face to face interview probably takes the same time as 2 or even 3 phone a electronic or phone appointments
    Which is why, until quite recently, the government was pushing remote appointments and more tirage. It's significantly more efficient.

    But it's not what the punters want.
    And there would be a regular supply of 'person died because GP did not see him' stories.

    Here's one today:

    The family of a law student believe he would not have died had he been seen face-to-face by a GP.

    David Nash, 26, had four remote consultations with staff at Burley Park Medical Centre in Leeds over 19 days before he died on 4 November 2020.

    No-one picked up that he had developed an infection in his ear which caused a brain abscess, leading to meningitis.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-58953397
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    Yes, Labour is holding onto Remainers well, and gaining Leavers with buyers remorse. Not enough yet, but if the dam breaks...

    SKS needs to be careful or he may get it wrong on Brexit a second time by overcompensating.

    If that does happen the risk is it goes to their heads and their hand is massively overplayed.

    A very good politician would recognise Britain is divided and come up with a long-term compromise that 70%+ could be satisfied with.
    I know it is Guido so caveat emptor,however it looks like many of the newly approved future candidates are All open border supporting remainers. Hardly a mix of opinions to bring a long term compromise.

    https://order-order.com/2021/10/18/far-left-outraged-as-labour-announces-swathe-of-centrist-remainer-candidates/
    I think Labour has been wholly captured by hard Remainers and the radical wing of the Wokerati.

    It massively restricts Starmer's scope for manoeuvre.
    Labour is merely now a vehicle of special interest groups. It’s effectively subcontracted it’s policy making out to groups,like BLM, Exctinction Rebellion, stonewall, FBPE,via its vocal activist base. Quite how this will,coalesce to a viable manifesto remans to be seen. It says little on the economy.

    I shall vote labour again if my MP stands again. If he doesn’t I won’t vote for anyone.
    I worry though.

    Not only are those views increasingly common - even taken for granted - amongst my professional circle, particularly amongst professional women, but it's seen as so risky now to challenge them that no-one says anything.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,827
    What’s the reason why they’re making such a horlicks of the booster programme? Do we have the doses or not? All this “people are difficult to reach” makes no sense to me. The over 70s I know are beating the door down for their third dose to be told, “don’t call us we’ll call you”.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,629
    moonshine said:

    What’s the reason why they’re making such a horlicks of the booster programme? Do we have the doses or not? All this “people are difficult to reach” makes no sense to me. The over 70s I know are beating the door down for their third dose to be told, “don’t call us we’ll call you”.

    As I mentioned earlier, my mum got a text from the NHS today saying she was eligible (second dose was in Mid-April).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,873

    eek said:

    The other black swan I think is possible is the NHS keeling over before the next GE, I suspect some will understand it is related to the NHS but given the way the public views the NHS the party that allows the NHS to collapse will take a huge hit in the polls and ballot box.

    I'm in a few Tory WhatsApp groups and there's real fury about the government not doing enough to force face to face GP appointments.

    Which is ironic as 1 face to face interview probably takes the same time as 2 or even 3 phone a electronic or phone appointments
    Which is why, until quite recently, the government was pushing remote appointments and more tirage. It's significantly more efficient.

    But it's not what the punters want.
    It’s tricky, isn’t it. My wife and I are really happy to use e-consult, which for me has been far better than other ways to access the mostly simple requests I have. But for elderly patients, as has been said who are often the ones who need most help, they feel the need to physically attend.
    Different procedures work for different people and different occasions.

    How about both are available and people can chose what they think is best.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562

    ydoethur said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    No way. Please. We just couldn’t go through that again.
    I've said before that the long-term "stable" situation is creeping back to some form of common market plus qualified movement of workers - with limits, no political union/federalism whatsoever, and bilateral/multilateral cooperation on areas of mutual interest.

    But, surprisingly moderate people have marched off to the extremes on both sides and show no signs of learning anything or coming in.
    I think we're pretty close to the "stable" situation actually, much as there's more heat than light in discussions at the moment.

    No free movement, no political union, but we do have co-operation on areas of mutual interest and we have a zero-tariff, zero-quota free trade agreement. Once the NI issue is resolved in the next few weeks, then we'll be far closer to a stable solution. What's going to be re-opened and why?

    We're not realistically going to go for financial services passporting if that means following Brussels rules we don't get a say in, the City is too important to delegate our rules to a third country. And the City has shown it can cope without passporting.

    We're not realistically going to join a customs union - there's a reason not one of the EFTA nations have done that and as we gain new deals with the likes of Australia and the CPTPP we'll have more to give up without anything to gain.

    So what's going to be worth the hassle of reopening divisions over?
    Personally, I think Brexit is going fine - aside from the Statist take Boris is offering - but that doesn't mean the politics of it won't change over time.
    Oh absolutely, but the Statist take Boris is offering isn't Brexit-related, its that Sunak has gone native and Boris is too keen on spending. That's domestic not Brexit and will only be reversed via domestic elections.

    The politics of our relations with Europe will evolve over time, like the Swiss, but I think the general framework that Frost has negotiated by and large will last. It will evolve, but I can't see us either tearing up the TCA and going to WTO, or rejoining the EFTA/EU.

    Quite simply we've cherrypicked free trade without the politics and without free movement. Whatever else we 'gain' from joining the EFTA from here is pretty miniscule and won't win a referendum or votes I suspect.
    If I were Boris I'd review the whole regulatory book, and our tax and migration policy, for radical reforms that'd allow us to take advantage of future technology and growth over the next 5-10 years.

    We can move and respond faster than any of our EU counterparts - let's use it.
    I have good news, and bad news...
  • eek said:

    The other black swan I think is possible is the NHS keeling over before the next GE, I suspect some will understand it is related to the NHS but given the way the public views the NHS the party that allows the NHS to collapse will take a huge hit in the polls and ballot box.

    I'm in a few Tory WhatsApp groups and there's real fury about the government not doing enough to force face to face GP appointments.

    Which is ironic as 1 face to face interview probably takes the same time as 2 or even 3 phone a electronic or phone appointments
    Which is why, until quite recently, the government was pushing remote appointments and more tirage. It's significantly more efficient.

    But it's not what the punters want.
    And there would be a regular supply of 'person died because GP did not see him' stories.

    Here's one today:

    The family of a law student believe he would not have died had he been seen face-to-face by a GP.

    David Nash, 26, had four remote consultations with staff at Burley Park Medical Centre in Leeds over 19 days before he died on 4 November 2020.

    No-one picked up that he had developed an infection in his ear which caused a brain abscess, leading to meningitis.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-58953397
    It's why I didn't even think about going into medicine. I know that I would have really struggled with the whole "sometimes, you will have to make a decision that can't end well" thing.

    If there are any would-be medics out there, have a good answer to the question "Tell me about a time you failed and how you coped."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    This is interesting. 50% of online misogynistic tweets directed at women come from other women:

    http://demos.co.uk/press-release/staggering-scale-of-social-media-misogyny-mapped-in-new-demos-study/
  • moonshine said:

    What’s the reason why they’re making such a horlicks of the booster programme? Do we have the doses or not? All this “people are difficult to reach” makes no sense to me. The over 70s I know are beating the door down for their third dose to be told, “don’t call us we’ll call you”.

    My wife had hers last Monday and I am due mine on Friday 7 months after our second Pfizer
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562

    rpjs said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
    Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres

    What better sign for the rest of the EU that those who leave will come back.

    If we do rejoin it'll be because Brexit has turned out badly and thus we'd be supplicants in any deal.
    Exactly which is why if we're supplicants then they'd have no reason to want it dealing with incrementally. They'd want their pound of flesh.

    And the only way to avoid a hokey-cokey membership would be to say that we can rejoin provided we join the Euro and Schengen on the day we accede, no backsliding then.
    Even if the UK wanted to, that couldn't happen. IIRC a country has to be in the ERM for something like three years before it can adopt the Euro, and there are a lot of requirements to accede to Schengen, not least actual exit controls with border guards stamping passports which the UK does not do.
    Accession requires unanimity anyway and unanimity allows the Treaties to be changed.

    I see no reason why as part of the negotiations over the Acquis Communitaire if we were to crawl back to the EU to ask to be let back in, that the EU couldn't demand that we join (or shadow join) the ERM II. Then have the 3 years of ERM as part of our joining procedure and then accession to the EU and Euro simultaneously.

    Any barriers on the UK acceding to Schengen could similarly be dealt with as part of the Acquis Communitaire process.
    Personally, I'd be all in favour of joining Schengen. But I realise that is a minority view.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    No way. Please. We just couldn’t go through that again.
    I've said before that the long-term "stable" situation is creeping back to some form of common market plus qualified movement of workers - with limits, no political union/federalism whatsoever, and bilateral/multilateral cooperation on areas of mutual interest.

    But, surprisingly moderate people have marched off to the extremes on both sides and show no signs of learning anything or coming in.
    I think we're pretty close to the "stable" situation actually, much as there's more heat than light in discussions at the moment.

    No free movement, no political union, but we do have co-operation on areas of mutual interest and we have a zero-tariff, zero-quota free trade agreement. Once the NI issue is resolved in the next few weeks, then we'll be far closer to a stable solution. What's going to be re-opened and why?

    We're not realistically going to go for financial services passporting if that means following Brussels rules we don't get a say in, the City is too important to delegate our rules to a third country. And the City has shown it can cope without passporting.

    We're not realistically going to join a customs union - there's a reason not one of the EFTA nations have done that and as we gain new deals with the likes of Australia and the CPTPP we'll have more to give up without anything to gain.

    So what's going to be worth the hassle of reopening divisions over?
    Personally, I think Brexit is going fine - aside from the Statist take Boris is offering - but that doesn't mean the politics of it won't change over time.
    Oh absolutely, but the Statist take Boris is offering isn't Brexit-related, its that Sunak has gone native and Boris is too keen on spending. That's domestic not Brexit and will only be reversed via domestic elections.

    The politics of our relations with Europe will evolve over time, like the Swiss, but I think the general framework that Frost has negotiated by and large will last. It will evolve, but I can't see us either tearing up the TCA and going to WTO, or rejoining the EFTA/EU.

    Quite simply we've cherrypicked free trade without the politics and without free movement. Whatever else we 'gain' from joining the EFTA from here is pretty miniscule and won't win a referendum or votes I suspect.
    If I were Boris I'd review the whole regulatory book, and our tax and migration policy, for radical reforms that'd allow us to take advantage of future technology and growth over the next 5-10 years.

    We can move and respond faster than any of our EU counterparts - let's use it.
    I have good news, and bad news...
    There's some good news?
  • Wow, shit just got real.

    The hostility among Premier League clubs to the Newcastle United takeover was underlined on Monday when they voted through legislation designed to prevent the Saudi owners from striking lucrative sponsorship deals.

    Newcastle made it clear at the emergency meeting of all 20 clubs that they considered the rule change, which will temporarily ban commercial arrangements that involve pre-existing business relationships, to be anti-competitive. They were represented by Lee Charnley, the incumbent managing director, rather than Amanda Staveley, the director and minority stakeholder, who is now responsible for running the club on a day-to-day basis. Charnley is understood to have made it clear that his club had legal advice to say that the amendment was unlawful.

    But the clubs pressed on with the vote and it was passed 18-2. Standing in opposition with Newcastle were Manchester City, whose Abu Dhabi-based owners have benefitted in the past from what are known as related party transactions. An example was the deal that saw Etihad Airways, the Abu Dhabi-government owned carrier, sponsor them.


    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/oct/18/premier-league-clubs-vote-to-block-newcastle-sponsorship-deals-at-emergency-meeting?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,827

    moonshine said:

    What’s the reason why they’re making such a horlicks of the booster programme? Do we have the doses or not? All this “people are difficult to reach” makes no sense to me. The over 70s I know are beating the door down for their third dose to be told, “don’t call us we’ll call you”.

    My wife had hers last Monday and I am due mine on Friday 7 months after our second Pfizer
    Good news for you and Sunil’s mum. But these anecdotes are not representative of the national picture. There’s a substantial backlog of people past 180 days since second dose that is growing each and every day.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592

    eek said:

    The other black swan I think is possible is the NHS keeling over before the next GE, I suspect some will understand it is related to the NHS but given the way the public views the NHS the party that allows the NHS to collapse will take a huge hit in the polls and ballot box.

    I'm in a few Tory WhatsApp groups and there's real fury about the government not doing enough to force face to face GP appointments.

    Which is ironic as 1 face to face interview probably takes the same time as 2 or even 3 phone a electronic or phone appointments
    Which is why, until quite recently, the government was pushing remote appointments and more tirage. It's significantly more efficient.

    But it's not what the punters want.
    And there would be a regular supply of 'person died because GP did not see him' stories.

    Here's one today:

    The family of a law student believe he would not have died had he been seen face-to-face by a GP.

    David Nash, 26, had four remote consultations with staff at Burley Park Medical Centre in Leeds over 19 days before he died on 4 November 2020.

    No-one picked up that he had developed an infection in his ear which caused a brain abscess, leading to meningitis.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-58953397
    It's why I didn't even think about going into medicine. I know that I would have really struggled with the whole "sometimes, you will have to make a decision that can't end well" thing.

    If there are any would-be medics out there, have a good answer to the question "Tell me about a time you failed and how you coped."
    All doctors make mistakes and errors, and by the nature of what we do those consequences are life changing or even ending. That is the nature of the fog of battle. It all looks very clear in the endless time and analysis of a courtroom. Learning how to cope with that is a key part of the training.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,395
    rcs1000 said:

    rpjs said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
    Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres

    What better sign for the rest of the EU that those who leave will come back.

    If we do rejoin it'll be because Brexit has turned out badly and thus we'd be supplicants in any deal.
    Exactly which is why if we're supplicants then they'd have no reason to want it dealing with incrementally. They'd want their pound of flesh.

    And the only way to avoid a hokey-cokey membership would be to say that we can rejoin provided we join the Euro and Schengen on the day we accede, no backsliding then.
    Even if the UK wanted to, that couldn't happen. IIRC a country has to be in the ERM for something like three years before it can adopt the Euro, and there are a lot of requirements to accede to Schengen, not least actual exit controls with border guards stamping passports which the UK does not do.
    Accession requires unanimity anyway and unanimity allows the Treaties to be changed.

    I see no reason why as part of the negotiations over the Acquis Communitaire if we were to crawl back to the EU to ask to be let back in, that the EU couldn't demand that we join (or shadow join) the ERM II. Then have the 3 years of ERM as part of our joining procedure and then accession to the EU and Euro simultaneously.

    Any barriers on the UK acceding to Schengen could similarly be dealt with as part of the Acquis Communitaire process.
    Personally, I'd be all in favour of joining Schengen. But I realise that is a minority view.
    The USA joing Schengen would be...interesting...
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,683
    rcs1000 said:

    rpjs said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
    Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres

    What better sign for the rest of the EU that those who leave will come back.

    If we do rejoin it'll be because Brexit has turned out badly and thus we'd be supplicants in any deal.
    Exactly which is why if we're supplicants then they'd have no reason to want it dealing with incrementally. They'd want their pound of flesh.

    And the only way to avoid a hokey-cokey membership would be to say that we can rejoin provided we join the Euro and Schengen on the day we accede, no backsliding then.
    Even if the UK wanted to, that couldn't happen. IIRC a country has to be in the ERM for something like three years before it can adopt the Euro, and there are a lot of requirements to accede to Schengen, not least actual exit controls with border guards stamping passports which the UK does not do.
    Accession requires unanimity anyway and unanimity allows the Treaties to be changed.

    I see no reason why as part of the negotiations over the Acquis Communitaire if we were to crawl back to the EU to ask to be let back in, that the EU couldn't demand that we join (or shadow join) the ERM II. Then have the 3 years of ERM as part of our joining procedure and then accession to the EU and Euro simultaneously.

    Any barriers on the UK acceding to Schengen could similarly be dealt with as part of the Acquis Communitaire process.
    Personally, I'd be all in favour of joining Schengen. But I realise that is a minority view.
    yes god forbid we join anything that allows human beings to travel across more of the earth without a wall (physical or official)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,225
    edited October 18

    moonshine said:

    What’s the reason why they’re making such a horlicks of the booster programme? Do we have the doses or not? All this “people are difficult to reach” makes no sense to me. The over 70s I know are beating the door down for their third dose to be told, “don’t call us we’ll call you”.

    My wife had hers last Monday and I am due mine on Friday 7 months after our second Pfizer
    My wife & I were due to have ours a week ago, but sadly while waiting for it we contracted COVID. We’ve got to wait another three weeks now.
    We seem to be shaking off what we had, fortunately.
  • moonshine said:

    What’s the reason why they’re making such a horlicks of the booster programme? Do we have the doses or not? All this “people are difficult to reach” makes no sense to me. The over 70s I know are beating the door down for their third dose to be told, “don’t call us we’ll call you”.

    My wife had hers last Monday and I am due mine on Friday 7 months after our second Pfizer
    My wife & I were due to have ours a week ago, but sadly while waiting for it we contracted COVID. We’ve got to wait another three weeks now.
    We seem to be shaking off what we had, fortunately.
    Sorry to hear that but good you are shaking it off

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Twitter is weird. I made a modestly funny tweet just after lunch and it is currently gaining about 300 likes every hour.

    I've clearly managed to hit The Algorithm exactly where it likes.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    Yes, Labour is holding onto Remainers well, and gaining Leavers with buyers remorse. Not enough yet, but if the dam breaks...

    SKS needs to be careful or he may get it wrong on Brexit a second time by overcompensating.

    If that does happen the risk is it goes to their heads and their hand is massively overplayed.

    A very good politician would recognise Britain is divided and come up with a long-term compromise that 70%+ could be satisfied with.
    I know it is Guido so caveat emptor,however it looks like many of the newly approved future candidates are All open border supporting remainers. Hardly a mix of opinions to bring a long term compromise.

    https://order-order.com/2021/10/18/far-left-outraged-as-labour-announces-swathe-of-centrist-remainer-candidates/
    I think Labour has been wholly captured by hard Remainers and the radical wing of the Wokerati.

    It massively restricts Starmer's scope for manoeuvre.
    Labour is merely now a vehicle of special interest groups. It’s effectively subcontracted it’s policy making out to groups,like BLM, Exctinction Rebellion, stonewall, FBPE,via its vocal activist base. Quite how this will,coalesce to a viable manifesto remans to be seen. It says little on the economy.

    I shall vote labour again if my MP stands again. If he doesn’t I won’t vote for anyone.
    I worry though.

    Not only are those views increasingly common - even taken for granted - amongst my professional circle, particularly amongst professional women, but it's seen as so risky now to challenge them that no-one says anything.
    It’s not that the views are wrong, as such, it’s just that for those who hold them, or a significant minority who do, there’s no middle ground.

    You either adhere to what their prevailing worldview is or you’re marked down as an enemy.

    I don’t think it’s woke as such just intolerance.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,566
    rcs1000 said:

    rpjs said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
    Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres

    What better sign for the rest of the EU that those who leave will come back.

    If we do rejoin it'll be because Brexit has turned out badly and thus we'd be supplicants in any deal.
    Exactly which is why if we're supplicants then they'd have no reason to want it dealing with incrementally. They'd want their pound of flesh.

    And the only way to avoid a hokey-cokey membership would be to say that we can rejoin provided we join the Euro and Schengen on the day we accede, no backsliding then.
    Even if the UK wanted to, that couldn't happen. IIRC a country has to be in the ERM for something like three years before it can adopt the Euro, and there are a lot of requirements to accede to Schengen, not least actual exit controls with border guards stamping passports which the UK does not do.
    Accession requires unanimity anyway and unanimity allows the Treaties to be changed.

    I see no reason why as part of the negotiations over the Acquis Communitaire if we were to crawl back to the EU to ask to be let back in, that the EU couldn't demand that we join (or shadow join) the ERM II. Then have the 3 years of ERM as part of our joining procedure and then accession to the EU and Euro simultaneously.

    Any barriers on the UK acceding to Schengen could similarly be dealt with as part of the Acquis Communitaire process.
    Personally, I'd be all in favour of joining Schengen. But I realise that is a minority view.
    I think Schengen has it the wrong way round. I am in favour of people having he right to freedom of movement - something that exists within the EEA without the need for Schengen but which I would like to see extended to much, if not all, of the rest of the world. But Schengen creates security and crime risks by removing the border controls. The state - by which I include the EU as well as the UK and other countries - should not be allowed to stop people travelling where they like so long as they do not pose a security or crime risk. But they do need to be able to monitor and control the borders to ensure that those people who do pose such risks are stopped. Schengen seems to me to remove the necessary controls without adding anything to the ability of most people to move freely throughout the EEA and beyond.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,992

    This is interesting. 50% of online misogynistic tweets directed at women come from other women:

    http://demos.co.uk/press-release/staggering-scale-of-social-media-misogyny-mapped-in-new-demos-study/

    Although despite the link title it's not a new study - it's from 2016. There's been a lot of tweets under the bridge since then.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562

    eek said:

    The other black swan I think is possible is the NHS keeling over before the next GE, I suspect some will understand it is related to the NHS but given the way the public views the NHS the party that allows the NHS to collapse will take a huge hit in the polls and ballot box.

    I'm in a few Tory WhatsApp groups and there's real fury about the government not doing enough to force face to face GP appointments.

    Which is ironic as 1 face to face interview probably takes the same time as 2 or even 3 phone a electronic or phone appointments
    Which is why, until quite recently, the government was pushing remote appointments and more tirage. It's significantly more efficient.

    But it's not what the punters want.
    And there would be a regular supply of 'person died because GP did not see him' stories.

    Here's one today:

    The family of a law student believe he would not have died had he been seen face-to-face by a GP.

    David Nash, 26, had four remote consultations with staff at Burley Park Medical Centre in Leeds over 19 days before he died on 4 November 2020.

    No-one picked up that he had developed an infection in his ear which caused a brain abscess, leading to meningitis.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-58953397
    It's why I didn't even think about going into medicine. I know that I would have really struggled with the whole "sometimes, you will have to make a decision that can't end well" thing.

    If there are any would-be medics out there, have a good answer to the question "Tell me about a time you failed and how you coped."
    When I was at University, a (very drunk) medical student said to me "you're not a real doctor until you've killed your first patient".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562

    rpjs said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
    Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres

    What better sign for the rest of the EU that those who leave will come back.

    If we do rejoin it'll be because Brexit has turned out badly and thus we'd be supplicants in any deal.
    Exactly which is why if we're supplicants then they'd have no reason to want it dealing with incrementally. They'd want their pound of flesh.

    And the only way to avoid a hokey-cokey membership would be to say that we can rejoin provided we join the Euro and Schengen on the day we accede, no backsliding then.
    Even if the UK wanted to, that couldn't happen. IIRC a country has to be in the ERM for something like three years before it can adopt the Euro, and there are a lot of requirements to accede to Schengen, not least actual exit controls with border guards stamping passports which the UK does not do.
    Accession requires unanimity anyway and unanimity allows the Treaties to be changed.

    I see no reason why as part of the negotiations over the Acquis Communitaire if we were to crawl back to the EU to ask to be let back in, that the EU couldn't demand that we join (or shadow join) the ERM II. Then have the 3 years of ERM as part of our joining procedure and then accession to the EU and Euro simultaneously.

    Any barriers on the UK acceding to Schengen could similarly be dealt with as part of the Acquis Communitaire process.
    On the subject of the Euro, I suspect the French, Italians and Greeks would actually prefer us out. The last thing they want is another Northern European free market country having some influence on how the Euro works.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,873
    moonshine said:

    What’s the reason why they’re making such a horlicks of the booster programme? Do we have the doses or not? All this “people are difficult to reach” makes no sense to me. The over 70s I know are beating the door down for their third dose to be told, “don’t call us we’ll call you”.

    Looking at the England numbers by age group:

    80+ 1,262k
    75-79 617k
    70-74 415k
    65-69 193k
    60-64 215k
    55-59 245k
    50-54 223k
    45-49 142k
    40-44 107k
    35-39 89k
    30-34 77k
    25-29 60k
    18-24 40k
    -18 1k

    Now compare that with the number who had received two does by 7th April:

    80+ 1,901k
    75-79 732k
    70-74 410k
    65-69 192k
    60-64 259k
    55-59 324k
    50-54 310k
    -50 1,215k

    So there making good progress on the oldies and those with major underlying health problems.

    But what seems to be different is that NHS and care home workers, who were among the first to be vaccinated, are lagging behind.

    Why that is I don't know.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562

    rcs1000 said:

    rpjs said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
    Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres

    What better sign for the rest of the EU that those who leave will come back.

    If we do rejoin it'll be because Brexit has turned out badly and thus we'd be supplicants in any deal.
    Exactly which is why if we're supplicants then they'd have no reason to want it dealing with incrementally. They'd want their pound of flesh.

    And the only way to avoid a hokey-cokey membership would be to say that we can rejoin provided we join the Euro and Schengen on the day we accede, no backsliding then.
    Even if the UK wanted to, that couldn't happen. IIRC a country has to be in the ERM for something like three years before it can adopt the Euro, and there are a lot of requirements to accede to Schengen, not least actual exit controls with border guards stamping passports which the UK does not do.
    Accession requires unanimity anyway and unanimity allows the Treaties to be changed.

    I see no reason why as part of the negotiations over the Acquis Communitaire if we were to crawl back to the EU to ask to be let back in, that the EU couldn't demand that we join (or shadow join) the ERM II. Then have the 3 years of ERM as part of our joining procedure and then accession to the EU and Euro simultaneously.

    Any barriers on the UK acceding to Schengen could similarly be dealt with as part of the Acquis Communitaire process.
    Personally, I'd be all in favour of joining Schengen. But I realise that is a minority view.
    I think Schengen has it the wrong way round. I am in favour of people having he right to freedom of movement - something that exists within the EEA without the need for Schengen but which I would like to see extended to much, if not all, of the rest of the world. But Schengen creates security and crime risks by removing the border controls. The state - by which I include the EU as well as the UK and other countries - should not be allowed to stop people travelling where they like so long as they do not pose a security or crime risk. But they do need to be able to monitor and control the borders to ensure that those people who do pose such risks are stopped. Schengen seems to me to remove the necessary controls without adding anything to the ability of most people to move freely throughout the EEA and beyond.
    Shall we compromise? I think that a drivers license should constitute acceptable identification to travel on a plane or across a European border.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    rcs1000 said:

    rpjs said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
    Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres

    What better sign for the rest of the EU that those who leave will come back.

    If we do rejoin it'll be because Brexit has turned out badly and thus we'd be supplicants in any deal.
    Exactly which is why if we're supplicants then they'd have no reason to want it dealing with incrementally. They'd want their pound of flesh.

    And the only way to avoid a hokey-cokey membership would be to say that we can rejoin provided we join the Euro and Schengen on the day we accede, no backsliding then.
    Even if the UK wanted to, that couldn't happen. IIRC a country has to be in the ERM for something like three years before it can adopt the Euro, and there are a lot of requirements to accede to Schengen, not least actual exit controls with border guards stamping passports which the UK does not do.
    Accession requires unanimity anyway and unanimity allows the Treaties to be changed.

    I see no reason why as part of the negotiations over the Acquis Communitaire if we were to crawl back to the EU to ask to be let back in, that the EU couldn't demand that we join (or shadow join) the ERM II. Then have the 3 years of ERM as part of our joining procedure and then accession to the EU and Euro simultaneously.

    Any barriers on the UK acceding to Schengen could similarly be dealt with as part of the Acquis Communitaire process.
    On the subject of the Euro, I suspect the French, Italians and Greeks would actually prefer us out. The last thing they want is another Northern European free market country having some influence on how the Euro works.
    Quite possibly.

    But I rather suspect the French hold that opinion on the UK in the EU at all.

    Which is why I never expect to see Britain back in the EU in my lifetime. About as much chance as Canada and the USA merging. Quite simply we won't do it - and they won't let us.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 224
    rcs1000 said:

    rpjs said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
    Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres

    What better sign for the rest of the EU that those who leave will come back.

    If we do rejoin it'll be because Brexit has turned out badly and thus we'd be supplicants in any deal.
    Exactly which is why if we're supplicants then they'd have no reason to want it dealing with incrementally. They'd want their pound of flesh.

    And the only way to avoid a hokey-cokey membership would be to say that we can rejoin provided we join the Euro and Schengen on the day we accede, no backsliding then.
    Even if the UK wanted to, that couldn't happen. IIRC a country has to be in the ERM for something like three years before it can adopt the Euro, and there are a lot of requirements to accede to Schengen, not least actual exit controls with border guards stamping passports which the UK does not do.
    Accession requires unanimity anyway and unanimity allows the Treaties to be changed.

    I see no reason why as part of the negotiations over the Acquis Communitaire if we were to crawl back to the EU to ask to be let back in, that the EU couldn't demand that we join (or shadow join) the ERM II. Then have the 3 years of ERM as part of our joining procedure and then accession to the EU and Euro simultaneously.

    Any barriers on the UK acceding to Schengen could similarly be dealt with as part of the Acquis Communitaire process.
    Personally, I'd be all in favour of joining Schengen. But I realise that is a minority view.
    Don’t have to be in the EU to join schengen — Iceland is in…
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    edited October 18
    Wasn't it excellent hearing Mark Francois criticising Mark Zuckerberg in the Commons today.
  • Foxy said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    Yes, Labour is holding onto Remainers well, and gaining Leavers with buyers remorse. Not enough yet, but if the dam breaks...

    SKS needs to be careful or he may get it wrong on Brexit a second time by overcompensating.

    If that does happen the risk is it goes to their heads and their hand is massively overplayed.

    A very good politician would recognise Britain is divided and come up with a long-term compromise that 70%+ could be satisfied with.
    The sensible option for rejoiners is to press Labour to commit the UK to join EFTA. Which they could sell as part of their 'Make Brexit Work' stance.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 940
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    Yes, Labour is holding onto Remainers well, and gaining Leavers with buyers remorse. Not enough yet, but if the dam breaks...

    SKS needs to be careful or he may get it wrong on Brexit a second time by overcompensating.

    If that does happen the risk is it goes to their heads and their hand is massively overplayed.

    A very good politician would recognise Britain is divided and come up with a long-term compromise that 70%+ could be satisfied with.
    I know it is Guido so caveat emptor,however it looks like many of the newly approved future candidates are All open border supporting remainers. Hardly a mix of opinions to bring a long term compromise.

    https://order-order.com/2021/10/18/far-left-outraged-as-labour-announces-swathe-of-centrist-remainer-candidates/
    I think Labour has been wholly captured by hard Remainers and the radical wing of the Wokerati.

    It massively restricts Starmer's scope for manoeuvre.
    Labour is merely now a vehicle of special interest groups. It’s effectively subcontracted it’s policy making out to groups,like BLM, Exctinction Rebellion, stonewall, FBPE,via its vocal activist base. Quite how this will,coalesce to a viable manifesto remans to be seen. It says little on the economy.

    I shall vote labour again if my MP stands again. If he doesn’t I won’t vote for anyone.
    I worry though.

    Not only are those views increasingly common - even taken for granted - amongst my professional circle, particularly amongst professional women, but it's seen as so risky now to challenge them that no-one says anything.
    It’s not that the views are wrong, as such, it’s just that for those who hold them, or a significant minority who do, there’s no middle ground.

    You either adhere to what their prevailing worldview is or you’re marked down as an enemy.

    I don’t think it’s woke as such just intolerance.
    I agree. But the same thing could be said about the Brexiteers in the aftermath of the referendum. Whether you agree or not with this, it is how the 'intolerant woke' look at the situation; and they are now taking their revenge.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,232
    edited October 18

    I see the poor ex army bloke on trial for attempted murder during the Troubles has died. Remind me why ,after letting out scores of murderers in the Good Friday Agreement it was deemed ok to prosecute an ill 80 year old who was doing his job on behalf of his countyr ?

    A. Those scores of murderers had faced trial and were in jail, hence their release.

    B. The agents of our state should be held to at least the same standards of behaviour as those murderers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rpjs said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
    This poll has me intrigued, like David, it made me sit up.

    'Rejoin' has always polled some way below 'Remain', never mind 'wrong to leave', so it's a notable moment that Rejoin has for the first time taken a (very slender) lead in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1450053507915165696

    Tucked away in latest Opinium poll, 61% to 31% think Brexit is going badly, and for the first time, a majority* of people - on being asked how they would vote in a future referendum, rather than reviewing their choice in the last one - come out for 'rejoin' above 'stay out'.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1450052070132830208

    *It's actually a plurality.
    Yes, it's got a lot of Remainers excited - including David, I'm afraid to say - who see it as a straw in the wind to push for full EU membership in future, including joining the Euro and federalism.

    There's a cadre out there who - having had a full fat Brexit inflicted on them - are desperate to one day push for a full fat Rejoin in response.
    If we rejoin it'll be via incrementalism.

    First rejoin the single market and customs union, then before you know it....
    You're assuming the French would allow us back incrementally?

    Why?
    Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres

    What better sign for the rest of the EU that those who leave will come back.

    If we do rejoin it'll be because Brexit has turned out badly and thus we'd be supplicants in any deal.
    Exactly which is why if we're supplicants then they'd have no reason to want it dealing with incrementally. They'd want their pound of flesh.

    And the only way to avoid a hokey-cokey membership would be to say that we can rejoin provided we join the Euro and Schengen on the day we accede, no backsliding then.
    Even if the UK wanted to, that couldn't happen. IIRC a country has to be in the ERM for something like three years before it can adopt the Euro, and there are a lot of requirements to accede to Schengen, not least actual exit controls with border guards stamping passports which the UK does not do.
    Accession requires unanimity anyway and unanimity allows the Treaties to be changed.

    I see no reason why as part of the negotiations over the Acquis Communitaire if we were to crawl back to the EU to ask to be let back in, that the EU couldn't demand that we join (or shadow join) the ERM II. Then have the 3 years of ERM as part of our joining procedure and then accession to the EU and Euro simultaneously.

    Any barriers on the UK acceding to Schengen could similarly be dealt with as part of the Acquis Communitaire process.
    Personally, I'd be all in favour of joining Schengen. But I realise that is a minority view.
    Don’t have to be in the EU to join schengen — Iceland is in…
    As is Monaco. And they're not even in the EEA or EFTA.
This discussion has been closed.