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Punters becoming less convinced of another CON majority – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 18 in General
imagePunters becoming less convinced of another CON majority – politicalbetting.com

The above betting market is one we are going to see a lot more of in the next couple of years – what will be the outcome of the next UK general election.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,964
    Test
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 779
    "In assessing general election outcomes we need to remember that the Tories had a GB vote lead at GE2019 of 11.8% so anything less than that represents a swing to LAB."

    Blimey - I had to double check that on wiki. Lab really got their asses whipped last time round.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,636
    The Tories are in trouble next election and it really is irrelevant what the current polling is. Inflation will be a big factor and so will be the effects of Brexit
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504
    A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

    That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

    I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,446
    edited October 18
    Is this Smarkets 38.76%? Betfair are 2.48 which is 40%

    If anyone is interested, here are the latest Leader Ratings - GP and Net - from each pollster. Boris leads on GP with everyone, Sir Keir leads with Opinium in Net Satisfaction, Boris leads with the rest

    I have saved the September Average, and will update at the end of each month. Should be useful I reckon




  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,835
    FPT:
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eye off the ball:

    First UK vaccine rollout was fast, reaching most vulnerable with a one dose before every other country (bar Israel). But there are questions about speed of the booster dose rollout as we head quickly into winter. Wrote this (with thanks to
    @john_actuary


    https://twitter.com/jim_reed/status/1450132105648824324?s=20

    The JCVI wasted so much time. The government should have forced them to come to a decision on kids and boosters by a set date or simply ploughed ahead without them. As it is they had to do that for kids. Our booster roll out should have started in at the beginning of September. Instead we waited for an extra 4 weeks and now have to play catch up. It's just idiotic really.
    I do not understand it. There must have been some scientific resistance to vaxxing kids and doing boosters. But what was it, and why? Because there is no political rationale. Vaccines are popular. They make the government popular.

    No one has given a satisfactory explanation for the sluggishness.
    The cynic in me would suggest that Robert Dingwall may not have been fully objective. From the leaked chat logs of the HART antivaxxer group, they, at least, were convinced he was specifically friendly and a "man on the inside" for them:



    It was only when they got rid of him that JCVI came up with any recommendation. I'm still somewhat shocked that they decided the balance wasn't strongly enough in favour of an outright recommendation.

    Taking their report itself here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/jcvi-statement-september-2021-covid-19-vaccination-of-children-aged-12-to-15-years/jcvi-statement-on-covid-19-vaccination-of-children-aged-12-to-15-years-3-september-2021

    ... and putting the balance between benefit and risk per million first doses (Tables 1 and 4):



    (width of bars is median time in hospital per outcome. PIMS-TS is the very rare paediatric condition that can be triggered by covid. Translucency of the myocarditis bar is the range (ie 3-17 per million))

    At least they did emphasise that transmission impairment and Long Covid concerns weren't to do with them and the CMOs should consider these in their own recommendations. But looking at that, I really feel that "the difference is marginal" is placing an excessive burden on the English language.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,646
    edited October 18
    rcs1000 said:

    A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

    That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

    I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

    You unfortunately missed out a couple of decimal points.

    Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,701
    rcs1000 said:

    A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

    That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

    I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

    Almost as if the pundits who told us either that Labour's implosion was all Corbyn's fault, or that Con maj was all to Brexit's credit were wrong. Because to the extent they were right, neither of those factors will be there in 2024.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,197
    All lot of us assumed that it would need something spectacular, a Black Wednesday event, to blow Boris's support to smithereens. But what if that's not actually needed? What if Sir Keir can just keep chipping away?
  • Whilst the government faces many problems some of its own making the opposition, all of it has been so unstintingly dire since the general election that it looks difficult to see how the Conservatives can lose the next election
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,646

    All lot of us assumed that it would need something spectacular, a Black Wednesday event, to blow Boris's support to smithereens. But what if that's not actually needed? What if Sir Keir can just keep chipping away?

    Scotland has changed everything.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,446
    Southend given City status I see. Nice one whoever made the decision
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,586
    rcs1000 said:

    A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

    That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

    I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

    :lol:
    image
  • isamisam Posts: 38,446
    edited October 18
    isam said:

    Is this Smarkets 38.76%? Betfair are 2.48 which is 40%

    If anyone is interested, here are the latest Leader Ratings - GP and Net - from each pollster. Boris leads on GP with everyone, Sir Keir leads with Opinium in Net Satisfaction, Boris leads with the rest

    I have saved the September Average, and will update at the end of each month. Should be useful I reckon




    Can't get that table bigger, but the average Boris GP lead is 9.4 now, down from 9.8 in September, and his Net Satisfaction lead is 5.0, down from 5.3 in Sep.

    Taking out the best for Sir Keir (Opinium) and the best for Boris (IPSOS-MORI) and it becomes 9.8 and 6.2

    Opinium really is a massive outlier, but it is the only pollster we seem to here about. If you only read PB you would think Sir Keir really was leading on these Ratings, as he prob should be if he wants to be PM


  • Mucking around with Electoral Calculus, if you leave the SNP in place, you need the shares to be something like C32L46 for a small Labour majority.

    Sort of makes sense- the SNP bloc blocks any sort of Labour majority without a Blairesque landslide, by shifting ca.50 potential Labour seats to the opposition. 1997 was C31L43.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,389
    On current polling the likeliest results are either a narrow Conservative majority or a hung parliament with the DUP holding the balance of power again
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,932
    edited October 18

    All lot of us assumed that it would need something spectacular, a Black Wednesday event, to blow Boris's support to smithereens. But what if that's not actually needed? What if Sir Keir can just keep chipping away?

    Is (for example) a serious economic crisis in the next couple of years really only a 5% chance ?
    I’d put it a bit higher than that.

    (Though that might not, of course, mean a Labour majority.)
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 779
    edited October 18

    The Tories are in trouble next election and it really is irrelevant what the current polling is. Inflation will be a big factor and so will be the effects of Brexit

    Inflation is scaring the fuck out of me given my UC budget.

    For some reason my TV gives me access to CNBC and they showed today Andrew Bailey over the weekend hinting that a rise in interest rates is on the cards - Can't come early enough if you ask me.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    HYUFD said:

    On current polling the likeliest results are either a narrow Conservative majority or a hung parliament with the DUP holding the balance of power again

    Unionists possibly. DUP, I am not so sure...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,793
    edited October 18
    HYUFD said:

    On current polling the likeliest results are either a narrow Conservative majority or a hung parliament with the DUP holding the balance of power again

    I think the boundary changes will make a material difference to the next election. All this stuff about "Remain and Leave seats" vis-a-vis the boundary changes doesn't make any sense to me. The boundary changes will add 10-15 seats to the Tory total regardless of Remain/Leave considerations.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504

    rcs1000 said:

    A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

    That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

    I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

    You unfortunately missed out a couple of decimal points.

    Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.
    There are lots of possibilities. Reform or the LibDems could win a majority in 2024. BJO could become Labour leader, and take them to their best result in a Century.

    My view is that the Conservatives should be clearly odds on to win a majority next time around. Why? Simples: (a) they have a decent sized majority to lose, (b) large parts of the UK are still grateful to Boris for delivering Brexit and vaccines, and (c) the Conservatives continue to poll very well in actual elections.

    Could all those things dissipate to the level where the Conservatives fail to secure a majority in 2024? Of course, and that's probably a 30-35% chance. But the chance of Labour winning an outright majority... at this point I'd want 25-1 to even think about it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    I see UKIP have a new leader.

    https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1450133924924084231?t=ZYu_SebG0Ealkry7G9yDoQ&s=19

    Remember when accepting cash for questions was considered scandalous? Now a bit of graft is almost compulsory.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,104
    Foxy said:

    I see UKIP have a new leader.

    https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1450133924924084231?t=ZYu_SebG0Ealkry7G9yDoQ&s=19

    Remember when accepting cash for questions was considered scandalous? Now a bit of graft is almost compulsory.

    Good grief, every time you think they’re hitting rock bottom…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,389
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,389
    edited October 18
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polling the likeliest results are either a narrow Conservative majority or a hung parliament with the DUP holding the balance of power again

    I think the boundary changes will make a material difference to the next election. All this stuff about "Remain and Leave seats" vis-a-vis the boundary changes doesn't make any sense to me. The boundary changes will add 10-15 seats to the Tory total regardless of Remain/Leave considerations.
    Even with the boundary changes today's Redfield and Wilton poll would still see the Conservatives 1 seat short of a majority. So Boris would still likely need Sir Jeffrey Donaldson's support to get any legislation through and if he wants DUP, UUP or TUV support that would require removing the Irish Sea border first
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,459
    JBriskin3 said:

    The Tories are in trouble next election and it really is irrelevant what the current polling is. Inflation will be a big factor and so will be the effects of Brexit

    Inflation is scaring the fuck out of me given my UC budget.

    For some reason my TV gives me access to CNBC and they showed today Andrew Bailey over the weekend hinting that a rise in interest rates is on the cards - Can't come early enough if you ask me.
    Inflation is a grave concern. THe central,banks are convinced it is transitory. We shall see.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polling the likeliest results are either a narrow Conservative majority or a hung parliament with the DUP holding the balance of power again

    I think the boundary changes will make a material difference to the next election. All this stuff about "Remain and Leave seats" vis-a-vis the boundary changes doesn't make any sense to me. The boundary changes will add 10-15 seats to the Tory total regardless of Remain/Leave considerations.
    Even with the boundary changes today's Redfield and Wilton poll would still see the Conservatives 1 seat short of a majority
    One think that SKS has in his favour is that he doesn't put off potential tactical voters in the way that Corbyn did.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,104
    Taz said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    The Tories are in trouble next election and it really is irrelevant what the current polling is. Inflation will be a big factor and so will be the effects of Brexit

    Inflation is scaring the fuck out of me given my UC budget.

    For some reason my TV gives me access to CNBC and they showed today Andrew Bailey over the weekend hinting that a rise in interest rates is on the cards - Can't come early enough if you ask me.
    Inflation is a grave concern. THe central,banks are convinced it is transitory. We shall see.
    That in itself is a good enough reason to be alarmed given their recent track record.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504
    HYUFD said:
    He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207
    Midterm polls have government leads and the PM has much, much better approval ratings than his opposite number.

    Tory majority certainly seems like good value.

    Labour majority a definite lay.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,104
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.
    Impossible. If Rolf Harris had got more than 2 votes it would have been a hung jury.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    edited October 18
    A Labour majority would require "An Event". But what are the chances of "An Event"?

    Trouble with trying to devine that is General Elections are rare. To go back 10 GEs takes you to 1982.

    Between then and now how mamy "An Event" have happened, and that event has influenced the subsequent election? The Falklands? Black Wednesday? Is that it?

    Betting on a Lab Maj seems like a real bad idea.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,964

    Midterm polls have government leads and the PM has much, much better approval ratings than his opposite number.

    Tory majority certainly seems like good value.

    Labour majority a definite lay.

    That is wrong. Johnson has worse or at best equal approval ratings with Starmer.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 779
    edited October 18
    Taz said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    The Tories are in trouble next election and it really is irrelevant what the current polling is. Inflation will be a big factor and so will be the effects of Brexit

    Inflation is scaring the fuck out of me given my UC budget.

    For some reason my TV gives me access to CNBC and they showed today Andrew Bailey over the weekend hinting that a rise in interest rates is on the cards - Can't come early enough if you ask me.
    THe central,banks are convinced it is transitory. We shall see.
    The CNBC show I watched contrasted Bailey and Lagarde - Lagarde certainly thinks it's transitory
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,104
    O/T but I have just checked my tariff, which is fixed until June unless I leave.

    At 16p kWh for electricity and 3p kWh for gas.

    Somebody must be cursing the deals they were offering…
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    Despatches on C4 is pretty brutal on NHS failures, and the reasons for them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,403
    ydoethur said:

    O/T but I have just checked my tariff, which is fixed until June unless I leave.

    At 16p kWh for electricity and 3p kWh for gas.

    Somebody must be cursing the deals they were offering…

    Enjoy the prices till June :D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,104
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    O/T but I have just checked my tariff, which is fixed until June unless I leave.

    At 16p kWh for electricity and 3p kWh for gas.

    Somebody must be cursing the deals they were offering…

    Enjoy the prices till June :D
    July will be a nasty shock…although that’s peak time for solar power.
  • rcs1000 said:
    What's sure to outrage US public, is assertion that the culprit couple misused a peanut butter sandwich - a true American icon - as cover for their alleged treason.

    Not even Benedict Arnold stooped THAT low!
  • Midterm polls have government leads and the PM has much, much better approval ratings than his opposite number.

    Tory majority certainly seems like good value.

    Labour majority a definite lay.

    That is wrong. Johnson has worse or at best equal approval ratings with Starmer.
    On tonight's RedfieldWilton

    Boris -2 (+4)

    Starmer -10 (+1)
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 987
    My guess is a reduced Conservative majority, it will take Labour IMO at least two election cycles to overturn this majority and form a government. That's assuming pretty much everything goes right for Labour and the old adage Oppositions don't win elections, Governments lose them stays true.
  • Alistair said:

    A Labour majority would require "An Event". But what are the chances of "An Event"?

    Trouble with trying to devine that is General Elections are rare. To go back 10 GEs takes you to 1982.

    Between then and now how mamy "An Event" have happened, and that event has influenced the subsequent election? The Falklands? Black Wednesday? Is that it?

    Betting on a Lab Maj seems like a real bad idea.

    Indyref2 in the Autumn of 2023, Yes are smashed and the SLAB win circa 40 seats in Scotland in UK GE in May 2024 in the aftermath.

    (Well it is the outline of a thread of black swans I've been toying with.)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207

    Midterm polls have government leads and the PM has much, much better approval ratings than his opposite number.

    Tory majority certainly seems like good value.

    Labour majority a definite lay.

    That is wrong. Johnson has worse or at best equal approval ratings with Starmer.
    Oh really?

    R&W Boris 36, Keir 26
    Ipsos MORI Boris 39, Keir 25
    Survation Boris 39, Keir 30

    When was the last poll that had Starmer polling as well or better than Boris in approval ratings?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,389
    edited October 18

    Alistair said:

    A Labour majority would require "An Event". But what are the chances of "An Event"?

    Trouble with trying to devine that is General Elections are rare. To go back 10 GEs takes you to 1982.

    Between then and now how mamy "An Event" have happened, and that event has influenced the subsequent election? The Falklands? Black Wednesday? Is that it?

    Betting on a Lab Maj seems like a real bad idea.

    Indyref2 in the Autumn of 2023, Yes are smashed and the SLAB win circa 40 seats in Scotland in UK GE in May 2024 in the aftermath.

    (Well it is the outline of a thread of black swans I've been toying with.)
    Why would Boris grant an indyref2 that even if he won it could deny him the chance to use posters putting Starmer in Sturgeon's pocket in a hung parliament?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,355

    Midterm polls have government leads and the PM has much, much better approval ratings than his opposite number.

    Tory majority certainly seems like good value.

    Labour majority a definite lay.

    We're not really at "midterm" yet.

    The pandemic effectively froze politics for a year or more and in a sense extended Johnson's post-election "honeymoon". The next two years will be far more indicative of how or if a Conservative Government is going to be re-elected.

    I presume the next Conservative Manifesto will be similar to 2019 with the mea culpa that all the unachieved promises will be down to the coronavirus (which is actually reasonable enough in some instances).

    As for Labour, I'm no clearer than before the Conference as to what a Starmer-led Britain would look like. It's not I can't imagine him as prime minister - that's the easy bit - the problem is I don't know what he would do first or as a priority. Simply running Britain the way Johnson has but better isn't going to cut much ice but nor, I suspect, is a hugely radical agenda (not that I can see one).
  • NYT ($) - Colin Powell, whose immune system was weakened, died of Covid-19 after fighting cancer.

    Colin Powell, whose immune system was weakened by treatment for multiple myeloma, died of complications of Covid-19 despite being vaccinated, his family said in a statement.

    Peggy Cifrino, Mr. Powell’s longtime aide, said that he had been successfully treated for multiple myeloma, a cancer of white blood cells in the bone marrow. People with multiple myeloma have compromised immune systems and are thus at greater risk of developing severe Covid-19. Vaccines are also likely to be less effective in these patients.

    The family’s statement did not provide further details about the complications or underlying health conditions Mr. Powell, 84, had. It said he was treated at Walter Reed National Medical Center. Ms. Cifrino said Mr. Powell, had gotten his second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in February, and had been scheduled to get an extra shot last week when he got sick, “so he wasn’t able to get that.”

    “We encourage everyone to get vaccinated,” Ms. Cifrino said.

    In a study published in July, researchers found that just 45 percent of those with active multiple myeloma “developed an adequate response” after receiving either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines.

    Although the shots are critical in reducing severe disease and death from the coronavirus, such outcomes are not unexpected. No vaccine is 100 percent effective, experts say.

    Severe Covid is rare in people who have been fully vaccinated.

    In June, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that it had received reports of 10,262 breakthrough infections by April 30 — a tiny fraction of the 101 million Americans who had been vaccinated by that date. (The agency noted that the number most likely represented “a substantial undercount” of breakthrough infections.)

    Of those breakthrough cases, 2 percent died — and in some of those cases, patients were hospitalized or died from something unrelated to Covid-19. The median age of those who died was 82.

    Multiple myeloma wasn’t Mr. Powell’s first battle with cancer. In 2003, when he was secretary of state, he underwent surgery for prostate cancer.
  • Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    Why? I mean the odds don't look completely bonkers (unlike Lab majority), but they aren't attractive either.
  • HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    A Labour majority would require "An Event". But what are the chances of "An Event"?

    Trouble with trying to devine that is General Elections are rare. To go back 10 GEs takes you to 1982.

    Between then and now how mamy "An Event" have happened, and that event has influenced the subsequent election? The Falklands? Black Wednesday? Is that it?

    Betting on a Lab Maj seems like a real bad idea.

    Indyref2 in the Autumn of 2023, Yes are smashed and the SLAB win circa 40 seats in Scotland in UK GE in May 2024 in the aftermath.

    (Well it is the outline of a thread of black swans I've been toying with.)
    Why would Boris grant an indyref2 that even if he won it could deny him the chance to use posters putting Starmer in Sturgeon's pocket in a hung parliament?
    Because he's an egotist and he sees as winning Indyref2 as a way of cementing his legacy.

    I know you don't like to hear it, but there's plenty at the top of the government who think indyref2 is honouring democracy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    The Tories are in trouble next election and it really is irrelevant what the current polling is. Inflation will be a big factor and so will be the effects of Brexit

    That's not the problem for the Tories.

    The problem for the Tories is that everything will be blamed on Brexit. And, because they're so closely associated with it, they get dragged down too.

    In truth, Brexit is a mild exacerbating factor to what are global problems emanating from Covid recovery and an incipient move to deglobalise the West from China but because that factor is unique to here and it's regularly reported on with bells and whistles on in the media it gets traction.

    If we were still in the EU exactly the same problems would occur but something else would cop the flak - probably the competence of the Government of the day.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,104
    edited October 18

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    A Labour majority would require "An Event". But what are the chances of "An Event"?

    Trouble with trying to devine that is General Elections are rare. To go back 10 GEs takes you to 1982.

    Between then and now how mamy "An Event" have happened, and that event has influenced the subsequent election? The Falklands? Black Wednesday? Is that it?

    Betting on a Lab Maj seems like a real bad idea.

    Indyref2 in the Autumn of 2023, Yes are smashed and the SLAB win circa 40 seats in Scotland in UK GE in May 2024 in the aftermath.

    (Well it is the outline of a thread of black swans I've been toying with.)
    Why would Boris grant an indyref2 that even if he won it could deny him the chance to use posters putting Starmer in Sturgeon's pocket in a hung parliament?
    Because he's an egotist and he sees as winning Indyref2 as a way of cementing his legacy.

    I know you don't like to hear it, but there's plenty at the top of the government who think indyref2 is honouring democracy.
    There are people at the top of this government who believe in democracy?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,646
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

    That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

    I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

    You unfortunately missed out a couple of decimal points.

    Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.
    There are lots of possibilities. Reform or the LibDems could win a majority in 2024. BJO could become Labour leader, and take them to their best result in a Century.

    My view is that the Conservatives should be clearly odds on to win a majority next time around. Why? Simples: (a) they have a decent sized majority to lose, (b) large parts of the UK are still grateful to Boris for delivering Brexit and vaccines, and (c) the Conservatives continue to poll very well in actual elections.

    Could all those things dissipate to the level where the Conservatives fail to secure a majority in 2024? Of course, and that's probably a 30-35% chance. But the chance of Labour winning an outright majority... at this point I'd want 25-1 to even think about it.
    My decimal.point comment was to imply that 0.4 or 0.5% would be highly optimistic.

    But I can see enough mileage in a hung parliament and I think a 45% chance is about right. This is dependent on rising inflation and rising interest rates, which @Philip_Thompson tells me is not going to happen, or if it does it will be good inflation and good interest rate rises, but I am not so sure.
  • The other black swan I think is possible is the NHS keeling over before the next GE, I suspect some will understand it is related to the NHS but given the way the public views the NHS the party that allows the NHS to collapse will take a huge hit in the polls and ballot box.

    I'm in a few Tory WhatsApp groups and there's real fury about the government not doing enough to force face to face GP appointments.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,389

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    A Labour majority would require "An Event". But what are the chances of "An Event"?

    Trouble with trying to devine that is General Elections are rare. To go back 10 GEs takes you to 1982.

    Between then and now how mamy "An Event" have happened, and that event has influenced the subsequent election? The Falklands? Black Wednesday? Is that it?

    Betting on a Lab Maj seems like a real bad idea.

    Indyref2 in the Autumn of 2023, Yes are smashed and the SLAB win circa 40 seats in Scotland in UK GE in May 2024 in the aftermath.

    (Well it is the outline of a thread of black swans I've been toying with.)
    Why would Boris grant an indyref2 that even if he won it could deny him the chance to use posters putting Starmer in Sturgeon's pocket in a hung parliament?
    Because he's an egotist and he sees as winning Indyref2 as a way of cementing his legacy.

    I know you don't like to hear it, but there's plenty at the top of the government who think indyref2 is honouring democracy.
    No he isn't, there are no upsides to Boris for granting an indyref2.

    Lose it and he has to resign the next day, win it and he is denied the opportunity to portray Starmer as Sturgeon's puppet if SLab revive, denying him key ammo for the next general election.

    So Boris will correctly continue to refuse an indyref2.

    A few wet blankets might want an indyref2 but no one senior in the great offices of state in the current government does
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207
    .
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    A Labour majority would require "An Event". But what are the chances of "An Event"?

    Trouble with trying to devine that is General Elections are rare. To go back 10 GEs takes you to 1982.

    Between then and now how mamy "An Event" have happened, and that event has influenced the subsequent election? The Falklands? Black Wednesday? Is that it?

    Betting on a Lab Maj seems like a real bad idea.

    Indyref2 in the Autumn of 2023, Yes are smashed and the SLAB win circa 40 seats in Scotland in UK GE in May 2024 in the aftermath.

    (Well it is the outline of a thread of black swans I've been toying with.)
    Why would Boris grant an indyref2 that even if he won it could deny him the chance to use posters putting Starmer in Sturgeon's pocket in a hung parliament?
    Starmer in Sturgeon's pocket won't mean anything without a Referendum. Not that many people in England care about Sturgeon/the SNP right now. For a lot of people in England now Sturgeon is wrongly perceived just as a boring political centrist not a firebrand, a bit like Clegg pre-2010.

    Win [or lose] a Referendum though and its going to bring Scotland to the forefront of the agenda and would make such a poster campaign have the chance to 'bite'. Just as it did in 2015, when the SNP were fresh in people's minds.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,446
    edited October 18

    Midterm polls have government leads and the PM has much, much better approval ratings than his opposite number.

    Tory majority certainly seems like good value.

    Labour majority a definite lay.

    That is wrong. Johnson has worse or at best equal approval ratings with Starmer.
    He is leading by an average of 5 Net Satisfaction and 9.4 Gross Positives! Or are we only allowed to use Opinium now? Only Opinium's Net Satisfaction out of Gross Positives and Net Sat from

    Opinium
    Panelbase
    Survation
    R&W
    IPSOS
    Delta
    ComRes
    YouGov

    have Sir Keir in the lead!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,173
    Alistair said:

    A Labour majority would require "An Event". But what are the chances of "An Event"?

    Trouble with trying to devine that is General Elections are rare. To go back 10 GEs takes you to 1982.

    Between then and now how mamy "An Event" have happened, and that event has influenced the subsequent election? The Falklands? Black Wednesday? Is that it?

    Betting on a Lab Maj seems like a real bad idea.

    It's also worth remembering that we were suffering from an awful recession in 1991, there were lots of repossessions and negative equity. Although Major had dispatched the poll tax you might have expected the Tories to suffer - and Labour didn't win in 1992.

    So we could have a house price crash, terrible inflation, real hardship - and if Labour can't convince that they would do better they will still lose.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 779
    edited October 18

    Alistair said:

    A Labour majority would require "An Event". But what are the chances of "An Event"?

    Trouble with trying to devine that is General Elections are rare. To go back 10 GEs takes you to 1982.

    Between then and now how mamy "An Event" have happened, and that event has influenced the subsequent election? The Falklands? Black Wednesday? Is that it?

    Betting on a Lab Maj seems like a real bad idea.

    Indyref2 in the Autumn of 2023, Yes are smashed and the SLAB win circa 40 seats in Scotland in UK GE in May 2024 in the aftermath.

    (Well it is the outline of a thread of black swans I've been toying with.)
    All it takes from Boris is a letter to stop Indyref2.

    Here's a draft that @10DowningStreet could use-

    Dear Nippy,

    Thank you for your Section 30 request.

    Unfortunately for you you stated time and time again during the referendum campaign of 2014 that this was a Once in a generation opportunaty for Scots and 9 years is clearly not a generation.

    Therefore your Section 30 request has been rejected.

    Best wishes

    Boris
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,389

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    rcs1000 said:

    A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

    That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

    I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

    I'd say about 10-15% actually.

    If this Government entirely goes south (there are some nasty straws in the wind) and Starmer stands up tall at the same time as people tire of Sturgeon and separatism in general then it's possible 20 or so seats in Scotland could go SLab to eject the Westminster government.

    Sure, he'd need to get 100 or so seats in E&W too but Cameron basically did that in the aftermath of the Credit Crunch himself.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,446

    Midterm polls have government leads and the PM has much, much better approval ratings than his opposite number.

    Tory majority certainly seems like good value.

    Labour majority a definite lay.

    That is wrong. Johnson has worse or at best equal approval ratings with Starmer.
    Oh really?

    R&W Boris 36, Keir 26
    Ipsos MORI Boris 39, Keir 25
    Survation Boris 39, Keir 30

    When was the last poll that had Starmer polling as well or better than Boris in approval ratings?
    Opinium's Net Satisfaction is the only one of the sixteen current leader ratings to have Sir Keir in the lead
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

    That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

    I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

    You unfortunately missed out a couple of decimal points.

    Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.
    There are lots of possibilities. Reform or the LibDems could win a majority in 2024. BJO could become Labour leader, and take them to their best result in a Century.

    My view is that the Conservatives should be clearly odds on to win a majority next time around. Why? Simples: (a) they have a decent sized majority to lose, (b) large parts of the UK are still grateful to Boris for delivering Brexit and vaccines, and (c) the Conservatives continue to poll very well in actual elections.

    Could all those things dissipate to the level where the Conservatives fail to secure a majority in 2024? Of course, and that's probably a 30-35% chance. But the chance of Labour winning an outright majority... at this point I'd want 25-1 to even think about it.
    My decimal.point comment was to imply that 0.4 or 0.5% would be highly optimistic.

    But I can see enough mileage in a hung parliament and I think a 45% chance is about right. This is dependent on rising inflation and rising interest rates, which @Philip_Thompson tells me is not going to happen, or if it does it will be good inflation and good interest rate rises, but I am not so sure.
    I never said inflation is not going to happen. I hope it does.

    I said an expansion of monetary supply alone doesn't automatically guarantee inflation [which it doesn't] because our high debt levels have added serious deflationary pressures to the economy.

    Ironically lockdown has helped people pay off debts, which means the deflationary pressures on the economy have been eased a bit so making inflation more likely. That's a good thing though, unless you want everyone spending their income on debt instead of purchases.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519

    The other black swan I think is possible is the NHS keeling over before the next GE, I suspect some will understand it is related to the NHS but given the way the public views the NHS the party that allows the NHS to collapse will take a huge hit in the polls and ballot box.

    I'm in a few Tory WhatsApp groups and there's real fury about the government not doing enough to force face to face GP appointments.

    The cupboard is bare. The number of WTE GP's doesn't meet that need. No amount of bluster fits a quart into a pint pot. Same goes in my gaff.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207
    HYUFD said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM
    Hey now you're getting it!

    National Insurance is a tax.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,389

    .

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    A Labour majority would require "An Event". But what are the chances of "An Event"?

    Trouble with trying to devine that is General Elections are rare. To go back 10 GEs takes you to 1982.

    Between then and now how mamy "An Event" have happened, and that event has influenced the subsequent election? The Falklands? Black Wednesday? Is that it?

    Betting on a Lab Maj seems like a real bad idea.

    Indyref2 in the Autumn of 2023, Yes are smashed and the SLAB win circa 40 seats in Scotland in UK GE in May 2024 in the aftermath.

    (Well it is the outline of a thread of black swans I've been toying with.)
    Why would Boris grant an indyref2 that even if he won it could deny him the chance to use posters putting Starmer in Sturgeon's pocket in a hung parliament?
    Starmer in Sturgeon's pocket won't mean anything without a Referendum. Not that many people in England care about Sturgeon/the SNP right now. For a lot of people in England now Sturgeon is wrongly perceived just as a boring political centrist not a firebrand, a bit like Clegg pre-2010.

    Win [or lose] a Referendum though and its going to bring Scotland to the forefront of the agenda and would make such a poster campaign have the chance to 'bite'. Just as it did in 2015, when the SNP were fresh in people's minds.
    Yes it will to English voters who do not want a government dependent on the SNP, especially given there will likely still be a Tory majority in England.

    If the SNP are beaten twice in a referendum then as TSE says SLab will have a chance to revive against a battered and bruised SNP and regain the seats lost in 2015 when nationalism was a fresh force
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    rcs1000 said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    Why? I mean the odds don't look completely bonkers (unlike Lab majority), but they aren't attractive either.
    I actually diverge from your thinking here.

    I don't think the Conservative coalition is half as solid as you think it is. It's a mile wide and an inch deep.

    The main thing holding it up is the lack of a better alternative.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,389
    edited October 18

    HYUFD said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM
    Hey now you're getting it!

    National Insurance is a tax.
    Less so than income tax but if the Tories increase income tax or inheritance tax or impose a wealth tax or continue to increase NI then I agree, what is the point of voting to re elect a Tory government? We may as well just have Labour in government and revive the Tory Party in opposition on a traditional Conservative agenda
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.
    I've fantasised at times about joining just so I can get "political party leader" on my CV.
  • Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207

    rcs1000 said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    Why? I mean the odds don't look completely bonkers (unlike Lab majority), but they aren't attractive either.
    I actually diverge from your thinking here.

    I don't think the Conservative coalition is half as solid as you think it is. It's a mile wide and an inch deep.

    The main thing holding it up is the lack of a better alternative.
    Which I don't think is going to be changed any time soon, regrettably. The country would be better ran if it had a credible Opposition, but it doesn't.

    I think the odds should be approximately

    75% Tory majority
    20% NOM
    5% Labour majority
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    Taz said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    The Tories are in trouble next election and it really is irrelevant what the current polling is. Inflation will be a big factor and so will be the effects of Brexit

    Inflation is scaring the fuck out of me given my UC budget.

    For some reason my TV gives me access to CNBC and they showed today Andrew Bailey over the weekend hinting that a rise in interest rates is on the cards - Can't come early enough if you ask me.
    Inflation is a grave concern. THe central,banks are convinced it is transitory. We shall see.
    We don't know.

    I suspect the Covid inflation is largely cyclical, and will dissipate after 2-3 years, but I think the decoupling from China (geopolitically necessary) and green agenda is structural.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,646

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

    That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

    I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

    You unfortunately missed out a couple of decimal points.

    Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.
    There are lots of possibilities. Reform or the LibDems could win a majority in 2024. BJO could become Labour leader, and take them to their best result in a Century.

    My view is that the Conservatives should be clearly odds on to win a majority next time around. Why? Simples: (a) they have a decent sized majority to lose, (b) large parts of the UK are still grateful to Boris for delivering Brexit and vaccines, and (c) the Conservatives continue to poll very well in actual elections.

    Could all those things dissipate to the level where the Conservatives fail to secure a majority in 2024? Of course, and that's probably a 30-35% chance. But the chance of Labour winning an outright majority... at this point I'd want 25-1 to even think about it.
    My decimal.point comment was to imply that 0.4 or 0.5% would be highly optimistic.

    But I can see enough mileage in a hung parliament and I think a 45% chance is about right. This is dependent on rising inflation and rising interest rates, which @Philip_Thompson tells me is not going to happen, or if it does it will be good inflation and good interest rate rises, but I am not so sure.
    I never said inflation is not going to happen. I hope it does.

    I said an expansion of monetary supply alone doesn't automatically guarantee inflation [which it doesn't] because our high debt levels have added serious deflationary pressures to the economy.

    Ironically lockdown has helped people pay off debts, which means the deflationary pressures on the economy have been eased a bit so making inflation more likely. That's a good thing though, unless you want everyone spending their income on debt instead of purchases.
    Paragraph 1 and 2. Yes you did.

    Paragraph 3 I don't believe that to be true.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,104

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

    That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

    I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

    You unfortunately missed out a couple of decimal points.

    Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.
    There are lots of possibilities. Reform or the LibDems could win a majority in 2024. BJO could become Labour leader, and take them to their best result in a Century.

    My view is that the Conservatives should be clearly odds on to win a majority next time around. Why? Simples: (a) they have a decent sized majority to lose, (b) large parts of the UK are still grateful to Boris for delivering Brexit and vaccines, and (c) the Conservatives continue to poll very well in actual elections.

    Could all those things dissipate to the level where the Conservatives fail to secure a majority in 2024? Of course, and that's probably a 30-35% chance. But the chance of Labour winning an outright majority... at this point I'd want 25-1 to even think about it.
    My decimal.point comment was to imply that 0.4 or 0.5% would be highly optimistic.

    But I can see enough mileage in a hung parliament and I think a 45% chance is about right. This is dependent on rising inflation and rising interest rates, which @Philip_Thompson tells me is not going to happen, or if it does it will be good inflation and good interest rate rises, but I am not so sure.
    I never said inflation is not going to happen. I hope it does.

    I said an expansion of monetary supply alone doesn't automatically guarantee inflation [which it doesn't] because our high debt levels have added serious deflationary pressures to the economy.

    Ironically lockdown has helped people pay off debts, which means the deflationary pressures on the economy have been eased a bit so making inflation more likely. That's a good thing though, unless you want everyone spending their income on debt instead of purchases.
    Hi Philip, do you have figures for that? My distinct impression is that where some have paid off debts due to no holidays, commutes, meals out etc those on low pay who had a cut in income have gone further into debt. But I would be really happy if I was wrong.
  • HYUFD said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM
    People like Max and myself tell you that Sunak is a pound shop Gordon Brown and that Boris Johnson is a tax and spender.

    Raising taxes is already happening.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,446

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.
    I've fantasised at times about joining just so I can get "political party leader" on my CV.
    As Andy Warhol never said In the future, everyone will be UKIP Leader for 15 minutes
    I was once 200/1 on Oddschecker to be next UKIP Leader, I think that was my 15 mins
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,389
    edited October 18

    HYUFD said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM
    People like Max and myself tell you that Sunak is a pound shop Gordon Brown and that Boris Johnson is a tax and spender.

    Raising taxes is already happening.
    Not as much as they would under Labour at the moment, however if they increase taxes further some Tories will start to wonder whether it is worth continuing in government under Boris and Sunak to continue an agenda identical to what Starmer would do. Or better to go into opposition under a red meat Tory like Patel or Rees-Mogg or a libertarian like Truss
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    HYUFD said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM
    People like Max and myself tell you that Sunak is a pound shop Gordon Brown and that Boris Johnson is a tax and spender.

    Raising taxes is already happening.
    I think Sunak's heart is in the right place but he risks choking off recovery by squeezing tax to balance the budget too early - I'd ease us off the fiscal heroin of the last eighteen months with another 2-3 years of methadone myself.

    Then go into 2024 saying it's almost sorted and say Labour would ruin it.
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.
    I've fantasised at times about joining just so I can get "political party leader" on my CV.
    But then you may become a politically exposed person and that's a real pain in the arse.

    https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/en/topics/anti-money-laundering/peps
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207
    edited October 18
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

    That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

    I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

    You unfortunately missed out a couple of decimal points.

    Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.
    There are lots of possibilities. Reform or the LibDems could win a majority in 2024. BJO could become Labour leader, and take them to their best result in a Century.

    My view is that the Conservatives should be clearly odds on to win a majority next time around. Why? Simples: (a) they have a decent sized majority to lose, (b) large parts of the UK are still grateful to Boris for delivering Brexit and vaccines, and (c) the Conservatives continue to poll very well in actual elections.

    Could all those things dissipate to the level where the Conservatives fail to secure a majority in 2024? Of course, and that's probably a 30-35% chance. But the chance of Labour winning an outright majority... at this point I'd want 25-1 to even think about it.
    My decimal.point comment was to imply that 0.4 or 0.5% would be highly optimistic.

    But I can see enough mileage in a hung parliament and I think a 45% chance is about right. This is dependent on rising inflation and rising interest rates, which @Philip_Thompson tells me is not going to happen, or if it does it will be good inflation and good interest rate rises, but I am not so sure.
    I never said inflation is not going to happen. I hope it does.

    I said an expansion of monetary supply alone doesn't automatically guarantee inflation [which it doesn't] because our high debt levels have added serious deflationary pressures to the economy.

    Ironically lockdown has helped people pay off debts, which means the deflationary pressures on the economy have been eased a bit so making inflation more likely. That's a good thing though, unless you want everyone spending their income on debt instead of purchases.
    Hi Philip, do you have figures for that? My distinct impression is that where some have paid off debts due to no holidays, commutes, meals out etc those on low pay who had a cut in income have gone further into debt. But I would be really happy if I was wrong.
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/mar/29/britons-pay-back-most-on-debt-in-27-years-as-credit-card-spending-slumps-covid

    Total consumer credit fell by 10% in the year March 2020 - February 2021

    Credit card debts fell by over 20% in the same period

    Stunning drop in 12 months on consumer debts.
  • HYUFD said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM
    People like Max and myself tell you that Sunak is a pound shop Gordon Brown and that Boris Johnson is a tax and spender.

    Raising taxes is already happening.
    I think Sunak's heart is in the right place but he risks choking off recovery by squeezing tax to balance the budget too early - I'd ease us off the fiscal heroin of the last eighteen months with another 2-3 years of methadone myself.

    Then go into 2024 saying it's almost sorted and say Labour would ruin it.
    I remember Ken Clarke saying when he was appointed Chancellor he knew he would have to do something that was against his philosophy of forty years, which was to put up taxes. The reality was if he didn't it would get worse further down the line, he thinks the IMF intervention as well as the Winter of Discontent is what kept Labour out for eighteen years.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM
    Hey now you're getting it!

    National Insurance is a tax.
    Less so than income tax but if the Tories increase income tax or inheritance tax or impose a wealth tax or continue to increase NI then I agree, what is the point of voting to re elect a Tory government? We may as well just have Labour in government and revive the Tory Party in opposition on a traditional Conservative agenda
    You are locked in a time warp pre brexit and covid

    The world has changed, Boris is well left of you and his policies on the NHS, social care, climate change, and education require increasing taxes

    However, he cannot tax the workers any further so he only has IHT and CGT or some form of wealth tax left

    There is no justification for a one million IHT exemption which apparently you need personally to afford to buy a house in the south, though I do not expect that exemption to change but more likely frozen indefinitely
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,104

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

    That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

    I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

    You unfortunately missed out a couple of decimal points.

    Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.
    There are lots of possibilities. Reform or the LibDems could win a majority in 2024. BJO could become Labour leader, and take them to their best result in a Century.

    My view is that the Conservatives should be clearly odds on to win a majority next time around. Why? Simples: (a) they have a decent sized majority to lose, (b) large parts of the UK are still grateful to Boris for delivering Brexit and vaccines, and (c) the Conservatives continue to poll very well in actual elections.

    Could all those things dissipate to the level where the Conservatives fail to secure a majority in 2024? Of course, and that's probably a 30-35% chance. But the chance of Labour winning an outright majority... at this point I'd want 25-1 to even think about it.
    My decimal.point comment was to imply that 0.4 or 0.5% would be highly optimistic.

    But I can see enough mileage in a hung parliament and I think a 45% chance is about right. This is dependent on rising inflation and rising interest rates, which @Philip_Thompson tells me is not going to happen, or if it does it will be good inflation and good interest rate rises, but I am not so sure.
    I never said inflation is not going to happen. I hope it does.

    I said an expansion of monetary supply alone doesn't automatically guarantee inflation [which it doesn't] because our high debt levels have added serious deflationary pressures to the economy.

    Ironically lockdown has helped people pay off debts, which means the deflationary pressures on the economy have been eased a bit so making inflation more likely. That's a good thing though, unless you want everyone spending their income on debt instead of purchases.
    Hi Philip, do you have figures for that? My distinct impression is that where some have paid off debts due to no holidays, commutes, meals out etc those on low pay who had a cut in income have gone further into debt. But I would be really happy if I was wrong.
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/mar/29/britons-pay-back-most-on-debt-in-27-years-as-credit-card-spending-slumps-covid

    Total consumer credit fell by 10% in the year March 2020 - February 2021

    Credit card debts fell by over 20% in the same period

    Stunning drop in 12 months on consumer debts.
    Thanks.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,446
    edited October 18

    Midterm polls have government leads and the PM has much, much better approval ratings than his opposite number.

    Tory majority certainly seems like good value.

    Labour majority a definite lay.

    That is wrong. Johnson has worse or at best equal approval ratings with Starmer.
    What are you basing that comment on Mike? I am keeping a record of all the leader ratings, and unless I have gone stark raving mad, Starmer only leads with Opinium on Net Satisfaction, and Boris leads in all the others




  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.
    I've fantasised at times about joining just so I can get "political party leader" on my CV.
    But then you may become a politically exposed person and that's a real pain in the arse.

    https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/en/topics/anti-money-laundering/peps
    I decided long ago that a political career wasn't for me - I don't have a thick enough skin and, quite frankly, although I find it interesting I suspect it'd make me miserable.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,239
    edited October 18
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM
    People like Max and myself tell you that Sunak is a pound shop Gordon Brown and that Boris Johnson is a tax and spender.

    Raising taxes is already happening.
    Not as much as they would under Labour at the moment, however if they increase taxes further some Tories will start to wonder whether it is worth continuing in government under Boris and Sunak to continue an agenda identical to what Starmer would do. Or better to go into opposition under a red meat Tory like Patel or Rees-Mogg or a libertarian like Truss
    You could form your own party if you like but what is far more likely is that when Boris and Rishi raise taxes you will adjust your comments and agree
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    HYUFD said:

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM
    People like Max and myself tell you that Sunak is a pound shop Gordon Brown and that Boris Johnson is a tax and spender.

    Raising taxes is already happening.
    I think Sunak's heart is in the right place but he risks choking off recovery by squeezing tax to balance the budget too early - I'd ease us off the fiscal heroin of the last eighteen months with another 2-3 years of methadone myself.

    Then go into 2024 saying it's almost sorted and say Labour would ruin it.
    I remember Ken Clarke saying when he was appointed Chancellor he knew he would have to do something that was against his philosophy of forty years, which was to put up taxes. The reality was if he didn't it would get worse further down the line, he thinks the IMF intervention as well as the Winter of Discontent is what kept Labour out for eighteen years.
    I understand that but I think Covid was a unique situation.

    It's not a black and white answer in its aftermath and it requires a similar flexibility in thinking.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    ydoethur said:

    O/T but I have just checked my tariff, which is fixed until June unless I leave.

    At 16p kWh for electricity and 3p kWh for gas.

    Somebody must be cursing the deals they were offering…

    But your supplier might have bought fixed to cover your tariff?
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.
    I've fantasised at times about joining just so I can get "political party leader" on my CV.
    But then you may become a politically exposed person and that's a real pain in the arse.

    https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/en/topics/anti-money-laundering/peps
    I decided long ago that a political career wasn't for me - I don't have a thick enough skin and, quite frankly, although I find it interesting I suspect it'd make me miserable.
    Yeah, I realised pretty quick politics wasn't for me.

    My sense of humour would perpetually get me into trouble, I don't think my parents could cope with seeing me constantly criticised, and I'll be honest, the pay differentials were pretty stark.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 155
    Yes, I am massively struggling to see any form of Labour led gvt at the next election but the Tories ending up with 315-20 seats like 2017 is perfectly plausible or even the most likely scenario even if boundary changes do go ahead at the moment.

    I do think Johnson will fight the next election against Starmer but he could throw in the towel afterwards if he loses his majority and not battle on for 2 years like May did.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

    It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
  • Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    It's quite a subtle problem.

    He can't go now without looking shifty. Can he?

    The next couple of years are going to be the Shawshank redemption bit, but with more tunneling through you-know-what and no certainty about redemption. That starts with the NI increase in Spring 2022. If Labour can't build up a meaningful lead then, they really are in trouble.

    And then, all of a sudden, it's 2024. And yes, the longer he leaves it, the more that "Brexit is in peril" could be met by "whatevs" or even "good". Or even "What do you mean, you've tied us into arrangements that stop us even thinking about EFTA. You mad psychos, what did you do that for?"
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207
    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2021/2021-q2/household-debt-and-covid
    image

    Stunning chart from the Bank of England. Look at those savings rates.

    This recession is like one we've never ever had before. We never normally come out of a recession with lower household debts than we went into it with.

    Given high debts are part of the reason we've been struggling with deflation, a paying off of debts during lockdown could be another reason for inflation on top of all the others already named.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,478

    Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    It's quite a subtle problem.

    He can't go now without looking shifty. Can he?

    The next couple of years are going to be the Shawshank redemption bit, but with more tunneling through you-know-what and no certainty about redemption. That starts with the NI increase in Spring 2022. If Labour can't build up a meaningful lead then, they really are in trouble.

    And then, all of a sudden, it's 2024. And yes, the longer he leaves it, the more that "Brexit is in peril" could be met by "whatevs" or even "good". Or even "What do you mean, you've tied us into arrangements that stop us even thinking about EFTA. You mad psychos, what did you do that for?"
    We are in the tricky period for the opposition. It’s not enough to want the conservatives out of power. I want to know what labour would do with power. And yet they will be reluctant to bring their ideas forward too soon. I have no sense of what a labour government would be doing right now, except quite possibly being tighter on Covid restrictions. Before I could vote for starmer, I need to see a different future, and one that I believe is possible.
  • Some of this is me.

    I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

    There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

    One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
    That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.
    Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .
    It's quite a subtle problem.

    He can't go now without looking shifty. Can he?

    The next couple of years are going to be the Shawshank redemption bit, but with more tunneling through you-know-what and no certainty about redemption. That starts with the NI increase in Spring 2022. If Labour can't build up a meaningful lead then, they really are in trouble.

    And then, all of a sudden, it's 2024. And yes, the longer he leaves it, the more that "Brexit is in peril" could be met by "whatevs" or even "good". Or even "What do you mean, you've tied us into arrangements that stop us even thinking about EFTA. You mad psychos, what did you do that for?"
    As one pollster put it, the country was overwhelmingly in favour of invading Iraq and the ERM, when the shit hit the fan, it was like, nah, I was always opposed to those.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,023
    edited October 18

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.
    I've fantasised at times about joining just so I can get "political party leader" on my CV.
    But then you may become a politically exposed person and that's a real pain in the arse.

    https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/en/topics/anti-money-laundering/peps
    I decided long ago that a political career wasn't for me - I don't have a thick enough skin and, quite frankly, although I find it interesting I suspect it'd make me miserable.
    No idea why anybody would want it frankly:

    - constant exposure
    - often punishing hours
    - pretty awful money
    - being blamed for things you've nothing to do with, especially when it was what the journalist was advocating yesterday
    - low job security - one trivial slip and you're out.
    - and, apparently, the threat of assassination.

    I've seen better job adverts.
This discussion has been closed.