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Punters becoming less convinced of another CON majority – politicalbetting.com
Punters becoming less convinced of another CON majority – politicalbetting.com
The above betting market is one we are going to see a lot more of in the next couple of years – what will be the outcome of the next UK general election.
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Blimey - I had to double check that on wiki. Lab really got their asses whipped last time round.
That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.
I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.
If anyone is interested, here are the latest Leader Ratings - GP and Net - from each pollster. Boris leads on GP with everyone, Sir Keir leads with Opinium in Net Satisfaction, Boris leads with the rest
I have saved the September Average, and will update at the end of each month. Should be useful I reckon
It was only when they got rid of him that JCVI came up with any recommendation. I'm still somewhat shocked that they decided the balance wasn't strongly enough in favour of an outright recommendation.
Taking their report itself here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/jcvi-statement-september-2021-covid-19-vaccination-of-children-aged-12-to-15-years/jcvi-statement-on-covid-19-vaccination-of-children-aged-12-to-15-years-3-september-2021
... and putting the balance between benefit and risk per million first doses (Tables 1 and 4):
(width of bars is median time in hospital per outcome. PIMS-TS is the very rare paediatric condition that can be triggered by covid. Translucency of the myocarditis bar is the range (ie 3-17 per million))
At least they did emphasise that transmission impairment and Long Covid concerns weren't to do with them and the CMOs should consider these in their own recommendations. But looking at that, I really feel that "the difference is marginal" is placing an excessive burden on the English language.
Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.
Taking out the best for Sir Keir (Opinium) and the best for Boris (IPSOS-MORI) and it becomes 9.8 and 6.2
Opinium really is a massive outlier, but it is the only pollster we seem to here about. If you only read PB you would think Sir Keir really was leading on these Ratings, as he prob should be if he wants to be PM
Sort of makes sense- the SNP bloc blocks any sort of Labour majority without a Blairesque landslide, by shifting ca.50 potential Labour seats to the opposition. 1997 was C31L43.
I’d put it a bit higher than that.
(Though that might not, of course, mean a Labour majority.)
For some reason my TV gives me access to CNBC and they showed today Andrew Bailey over the weekend hinting that a rise in interest rates is on the cards - Can't come early enough if you ask me.
My view is that the Conservatives should be clearly odds on to win a majority next time around. Why? Simples: (a) they have a decent sized majority to lose, (b) large parts of the UK are still grateful to Boris for delivering Brexit and vaccines, and (c) the Conservatives continue to poll very well in actual elections.
Could all those things dissipate to the level where the Conservatives fail to secure a majority in 2024? Of course, and that's probably a 30-35% chance. But the chance of Labour winning an outright majority... at this point I'd want 25-1 to even think about it.
https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1450133924924084231?t=ZYu_SebG0Ealkry7G9yDoQ&s=19
Remember when accepting cash for questions was considered scandalous? Now a bit of graft is almost compulsory.
https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1450133924924084231?s=20
Tory majority certainly seems like good value.
Labour majority a definite lay.
Trouble with trying to devine that is General Elections are rare. To go back 10 GEs takes you to 1982.
Between then and now how mamy "An Event" have happened, and that event has influenced the subsequent election? The Falklands? Black Wednesday? Is that it?
Betting on a Lab Maj seems like a real bad idea.
At 16p kWh for electricity and 3p kWh for gas.
Somebody must be cursing the deals they were offering…
Not even Benedict Arnold stooped THAT low!
Boris -2 (+4)
Starmer -10 (+1)
(Well it is the outline of a thread of black swans I've been toying with.)
I've dumped a Big One on NOM.
R&W Boris 36, Keir 26
Ipsos MORI Boris 39, Keir 25
Survation Boris 39, Keir 30
When was the last poll that had Starmer polling as well or better than Boris in approval ratings?
The pandemic effectively froze politics for a year or more and in a sense extended Johnson's post-election "honeymoon". The next two years will be far more indicative of how or if a Conservative Government is going to be re-elected.
I presume the next Conservative Manifesto will be similar to 2019 with the mea culpa that all the unachieved promises will be down to the coronavirus (which is actually reasonable enough in some instances).
As for Labour, I'm no clearer than before the Conference as to what a Starmer-led Britain would look like. It's not I can't imagine him as prime minister - that's the easy bit - the problem is I don't know what he would do first or as a priority. Simply running Britain the way Johnson has but better isn't going to cut much ice but nor, I suspect, is a hugely radical agenda (not that I can see one).
Colin Powell, whose immune system was weakened by treatment for multiple myeloma, died of complications of Covid-19 despite being vaccinated, his family said in a statement.
Peggy Cifrino, Mr. Powell’s longtime aide, said that he had been successfully treated for multiple myeloma, a cancer of white blood cells in the bone marrow. People with multiple myeloma have compromised immune systems and are thus at greater risk of developing severe Covid-19. Vaccines are also likely to be less effective in these patients.
The family’s statement did not provide further details about the complications or underlying health conditions Mr. Powell, 84, had. It said he was treated at Walter Reed National Medical Center. Ms. Cifrino said Mr. Powell, had gotten his second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in February, and had been scheduled to get an extra shot last week when he got sick, “so he wasn’t able to get that.”
“We encourage everyone to get vaccinated,” Ms. Cifrino said.
In a study published in July, researchers found that just 45 percent of those with active multiple myeloma “developed an adequate response” after receiving either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines.
Although the shots are critical in reducing severe disease and death from the coronavirus, such outcomes are not unexpected. No vaccine is 100 percent effective, experts say.
Severe Covid is rare in people who have been fully vaccinated.
In June, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that it had received reports of 10,262 breakthrough infections by April 30 — a tiny fraction of the 101 million Americans who had been vaccinated by that date. (The agency noted that the number most likely represented “a substantial undercount” of breakthrough infections.)
Of those breakthrough cases, 2 percent died — and in some of those cases, patients were hospitalized or died from something unrelated to Covid-19. The median age of those who died was 82.
Multiple myeloma wasn’t Mr. Powell’s first battle with cancer. In 2003, when he was secretary of state, he underwent surgery for prostate cancer.
One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.
I know you don't like to hear it, but there's plenty at the top of the government who think indyref2 is honouring democracy.
The problem for the Tories is that everything will be blamed on Brexit. And, because they're so closely associated with it, they get dragged down too.
In truth, Brexit is a mild exacerbating factor to what are global problems emanating from Covid recovery and an incipient move to deglobalise the West from China but because that factor is unique to here and it's regularly reported on with bells and whistles on in the media it gets traction.
If we were still in the EU exactly the same problems would occur but something else would cop the flak - probably the competence of the Government of the day.
But I can see enough mileage in a hung parliament and I think a 45% chance is about right. This is dependent on rising inflation and rising interest rates, which @Philip_Thompson tells me is not going to happen, or if it does it will be good inflation and good interest rate rises, but I am not so sure.
I'm in a few Tory WhatsApp groups and there's real fury about the government not doing enough to force face to face GP appointments.
Lose it and he has to resign the next day, win it and he is denied the opportunity to portray Starmer as Sturgeon's puppet if SLab revive, denying him key ammo for the next general election.
So Boris will correctly continue to refuse an indyref2.
A few wet blankets might want an indyref2 but no one senior in the great offices of state in the current government does
Win [or lose] a Referendum though and its going to bring Scotland to the forefront of the agenda and would make such a poster campaign have the chance to 'bite'. Just as it did in 2015, when the SNP were fresh in people's minds.
Opinium
Panelbase
Survation
R&W
IPSOS
Delta
ComRes
YouGov
have Sir Keir in the lead!
So we could have a house price crash, terrible inflation, real hardship - and if Labour can't convince that they would do better they will still lose.
Here's a draft that @10DowningStreet could use-
Dear Nippy,
Thank you for your Section 30 request.
Unfortunately for you you stated time and time again during the referendum campaign of 2014 that this was a Once in a generation opportunaty for Scots and 9 years is clearly not a generation.
Therefore your Section 30 request has been rejected.
Best wishes
Boris
If this Government entirely goes south (there are some nasty straws in the wind) and Starmer stands up tall at the same time as people tire of Sturgeon and separatism in general then it's possible 20 or so seats in Scotland could go SLab to eject the Westminster government.
Sure, he'd need to get 100 or so seats in E&W too but Cameron basically did that in the aftermath of the Credit Crunch himself.
I said an expansion of monetary supply alone doesn't automatically guarantee inflation [which it doesn't] because our high debt levels have added serious deflationary pressures to the economy.
Ironically lockdown has helped people pay off debts, which means the deflationary pressures on the economy have been eased a bit so making inflation more likely. That's a good thing though, unless you want everyone spending their income on debt instead of purchases.
National Insurance is a tax.
If the SNP are beaten twice in a referendum then as TSE says SLab will have a chance to revive against a battered and bruised SNP and regain the seats lost in 2015 when nationalism was a fresh force
I don't think the Conservative coalition is half as solid as you think it is. It's a mile wide and an inch deep.
The main thing holding it up is the lack of a better alternative.
I think the odds should be approximately
75% Tory majority
20% NOM
5% Labour majority
I suspect the Covid inflation is largely cyclical, and will dissipate after 2-3 years, but I think the decoupling from China (geopolitically necessary) and green agenda is structural.
Paragraph 3 I don't believe that to be true.
Raising taxes is already happening.
Then go into 2024 saying it's almost sorted and say Labour would ruin it.
https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/en/topics/anti-money-laundering/peps
Total consumer credit fell by 10% in the year March 2020 - February 2021
Credit card debts fell by over 20% in the same period
Stunning drop in 12 months on consumer debts.
The world has changed, Boris is well left of you and his policies on the NHS, social care, climate change, and education require increasing taxes
However, he cannot tax the workers any further so he only has IHT and CGT or some form of wealth tax left
There is no justification for a one million IHT exemption which apparently you need personally to afford to buy a house in the south, though I do not expect that exemption to change but more likely frozen indefinitely
It's not a black and white answer in its aftermath and it requires a similar flexibility in thinking.
My sense of humour would perpetually get me into trouble, I don't think my parents could cope with seeing me constantly criticised, and I'll be honest, the pay differentials were pretty stark.
I do think Johnson will fight the next election against Starmer but he could throw in the towel afterwards if he loses his majority and not battle on for 2 years like May did.
It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.
He can't go now without looking shifty. Can he?
The next couple of years are going to be the Shawshank redemption bit, but with more tunneling through you-know-what and no certainty about redemption. That starts with the NI increase in Spring 2022. If Labour can't build up a meaningful lead then, they really are in trouble.
And then, all of a sudden, it's 2024. And yes, the longer he leaves it, the more that "Brexit is in peril" could be met by "whatevs" or even "good". Or even "What do you mean, you've tied us into arrangements that stop us even thinking about EFTA. You mad psychos, what did you do that for?"
Stunning chart from the Bank of England. Look at those savings rates.
This recession is like one we've never ever had before. We never normally come out of a recession with lower household debts than we went into it with.
Given high debts are part of the reason we've been struggling with deflation, a paying off of debts during lockdown could be another reason for inflation on top of all the others already named.
- constant exposure
- often punishing hours
- pretty awful money
- being blamed for things you've nothing to do with, especially when it was what the journalist was advocating yesterday
- low job security - one trivial slip and you're out.
- and, apparently, the threat of assassination.
I've seen better job adverts.