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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I think the Observer are suffering a case of post hoc ergo propter hocitis

    Ukip have taken a shock six-percentage-point leap in the polls following confirmation that Nigel Farage is intending to stand in a Tory seat in Kent. An Opinium/Observer poll has Farage's party on 21%. It appears that Ukip has taken support from both the Tories and Labour.

    Ed Miliband's party is down three points, leaving it on 32%, and the Conservatives are down four points to 28%. The Liberal Democrats have enjoyed a small rise of three points to 10%.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/16/ukip-surge-popularity-farage-thanet

    What does your first sentence mean in English?
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: "after this, therefore because of this") is a logical fallacy (of the questionable cause variety) that states "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc
    Cheers

    Have any polls had CON+Lab as low as 60 post 2010?
    7 polls this parliament have the Con + Lab Scores 60 or lower

    60 was achieved three times, twice with Ashcroft in May and June this year, and the ComRes phone poll of July this year

    59 has been achieved four times, once with Ashcroft in June this year, and 3 times with Survation, twice in July 2013, and once in May 2013
    So 8 times in about 1000 polls?

    I think that should be UKIPs target, to get the big two down to 61-62 combined
    There have been so far 1,611 Westminster opinion polls this parliament.
    Hm, I make it 1524. Perhaps the wiki list is incomplete?
    It is, I use Anthony Wells' list here

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
    Well bugger me.
    There's a couple missing for his list as well.

    I'll work out which ones they are on Monday, tonight is a bit hectic tonight.
    Yeah, I've already found one. I'll update the wiki page with all the missing polls once I've sorted through them, then fire off a quick note to Anthony with the list he is missing.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I think the Observer are suffering a case of post hoc ergo propter hocitis

    Ukip have taken a shock six-percentage-point leap in the polls following confirmation that Nigel Farage is intending to stand in a Tory seat in Kent. An Opinium/Observer poll has Farage's party on 21%. It appears that Ukip has taken support from both the Tories and Labour.

    Ed Miliband's party is down three points, leaving it on 32%, and the Conservatives are down four points to 28%. The Liberal Democrats have enjoyed a small rise of three points to 10%.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/16/ukip-surge-popularity-farage-thanet

    What does your first sentence mean in English?
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: "after this, therefore because of this") is a logical fallacy (of the questionable cause variety) that states "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc
    Cheers

    Have any polls had CON+Lab as low as 60 post 2010?
    7 polls this parliament have the Con + Lab Scores 60 or lower

    60 was achieved three times, twice with Ashcroft in May and June this year, and the ComRes phone poll of July this year

    59 has been achieved four times, once with Ashcroft in June this year, and 3 times with Survation, twice in July 2013, and once in May 2013
    So 8 times in about 1000 polls?

    I think that should be UKIPs target, to get the big two down to 61-62 combined
    There have been so far 1,611 Westminster opinion polls this parliament.
    Hm, I make it 1524. Perhaps the wiki list is incomplete?
    It is, I use Anthony Wells' list here

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
    Well bugger me.
    There's a couple missing for his list as well.

    I'll work out which ones they are on Monday, tonight is a bit hectic tonight.
    Yeah, I've already found one. I'll update the wiki page with all the missing polls once I've sorted through them, then fire off a quick note to Anthony with the list he is missing.
    When I checked a while back, the missing ones on Wiki are from earlier on this parliament.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Eagles, congrats on the Swansea tip, by the way.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I think the Observer are suffering a case of post hoc ergo propter hocitis

    Ukip have taken a shock six-percentage-point leap in the polls following confirmation that Nigel Farage is intending to stand in a Tory seat in Kent. An Opinium/Observer poll has Farage's party on 21%. It appears that Ukip has taken support from both the Tories and Labour.

    Ed Miliband's party is down three points, leaving it on 32%, and the Conservatives are down four points to 28%. The Liberal Democrats have enjoyed a small rise of three points to 10%.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/16/ukip-surge-popularity-farage-thanet

    What does your first sentence mean in English?
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: "after this, therefore because of this") is a logical fallacy (of the questionable cause variety) that states "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc
    Cheers

    Have any polls had CON+Lab as low as 60 post 2010?
    7 polls this parliament have the Con + Lab Scores 60 or lower

    60 was achieved three times, twice with Ashcroft in May and June this year, and the ComRes phone poll of July this year

    59 has been achieved four times, once with Ashcroft in June this year, and 3 times with Survation, twice in July 2013, and once in May 2013
    So 8 times in about 1000 polls?

    I think that should be UKIPs target, to get the big two down to 61-62 combined
    There have been so far 1,611 Westminster opinion polls this parliament.
    So we have a poll showing something that only happens in half of 1% of polls
    Yes
    Hmm I wonder where I could find a place to discuss the ramifications of such a poll becoming the 2015 result
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I think the Observer are suffering a case of post hoc ergo propter hocitis

    Ukip have taken a shock six-percentage-point leap in the polls following confirmation that Nigel Farage is intending to stand in a Tory seat in Kent. An Opinium/Observer poll has Farage's party on 21%. It appears that Ukip has taken support from both the Tories and Labour.

    Ed Miliband's party is down three points, leaving it on 32%, and the Conservatives are down four points to 28%. The Liberal Democrats have enjoyed a small rise of three points to 10%.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/16/ukip-surge-popularity-farage-thanet

    What does your first sentence mean in English?
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: "after this, therefore because of this") is a logical fallacy (of the questionable cause variety) that states "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc
    Cheers

    Have any polls had CON+Lab as low as 60 post 2010?
    7 polls this parliament have the Con + Lab Scores 60 or lower

    60 was achieved three times, twice with Ashcroft in May and June this year, and the ComRes phone poll of July this year

    59 has been achieved four times, once with Ashcroft in June this year, and 3 times with Survation, twice in July 2013, and once in May 2013
    So 8 times in about 1000 polls?

    I think that should be UKIPs target, to get the big two down to 61-62 combined
    There have been so far 1,611 Westminster opinion polls this parliament.
    So we have a poll showing something that only happens in half of 1% of polls
    Yes
    Hmm I wonder where I could find a place to discuss the ramifications of such a poll becoming the 2015 result
    I'm writing the thread as we speak, should be up in the next half an hour or so.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    Good evening, everyone.

    Definitely feels like autumnal weather is upon us. Better than the stifling humidity and damned wasps of summer.

    MD, It has been just a bit too autumnal here today, poured most of the day. Luckily I got the car done in a short break in the rain. Pretty dismal though.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I think the Observer are suffering a case of post hoc ergo propter hocitis

    Ukip have taken a shock six-percentage-point leap in the polls following confirmation that Nigel Farage is intending to stand in a Tory seat in Kent. An Opinium/Observer poll has Farage's party on 21%. It appears that Ukip has taken support from both the Tories and Labour.

    Ed Miliband's party is down three points, leaving it on 32%, and the Conservatives are down four points to 28%. The Liberal Democrats have enjoyed a small rise of three points to 10%.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/16/ukip-surge-popularity-farage-thanet

    What does your first sentence mean in English?
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: "after this, therefore because of this") is a logical fallacy (of the questionable cause variety) that states "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc
    Cheers

    Have any polls had CON+Lab as low as 60 post 2010?
    7 polls this parliament have the Con + Lab Scores 60 or lower

    60 was achieved three times, twice with Ashcroft in May and June this year, and the ComRes phone poll of July this year

    59 has been achieved four times, once with Ashcroft in June this year, and 3 times with Survation, twice in July 2013, and once in May 2013
    So 8 times in about 1000 polls?

    I think that should be UKIPs target, to get the big two down to 61-62 combined
    There have been so far 1,611 Westminster opinion polls this parliament.
    So we have a poll showing something that only happens in half of 1% of polls
    Yes
    Hmm I wonder where I could find a place to discuss the ramifications of such a poll becoming the 2015 result
    I'm writing the thread as we speak, should be up in the next half an hour or so.
    Sorry for interrupting!

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. G, bit wet but not too much of a deluge here, but definitely cooler than it has been.

    If they ever make renewable energy powered by rainfall Britain's sorted.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I think the Observer are suffering a case of post hoc ergo propter hocitis

    Ukip have taken a shock six-percentage-point leap in the polls following confirmation that Nigel Farage is intending to stand in a Tory seat in Kent. An Opinium/Observer poll has Farage's party on 21%. It appears that Ukip has taken support from both the Tories and Labour.

    Ed Miliband's party is down three points, leaving it on 32%, and the Conservatives are down four points to 28%. The Liberal Democrats have enjoyed a small rise of three points to 10%.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/16/ukip-surge-popularity-farage-thanet

    What does your first sentence mean in English?
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: "after this, therefore because of this") is a logical fallacy (of the questionable cause variety) that states "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc
    Cheers

    Have any polls had CON+Lab as low as 60 post 2010?
    7 polls this parliament have the Con + Lab Scores 60 or lower

    60 was achieved three times, twice with Ashcroft in May and June this year, and the ComRes phone poll of July this year

    59 has been achieved four times, once with Ashcroft in June this year, and 3 times with Survation, twice in July 2013, and once in May 2013
    So 8 times in about 1000 polls?

    I think that should be UKIPs target, to get the big two down to 61-62 combined
    There have been so far 1,611 Westminster opinion polls this parliament.
    Hm, I make it 1524. Perhaps the wiki list is incomplete?
    It is, I use Anthony Wells' list here

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
    Well bugger me.
    In my youth the follow up used to be

    "Not while there's dogs on the street"!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Morris_Dancer
    Hydro Electric?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Smarmeron, believe that's water pressure from rivers. Related but not the same. We do have good hydroelectric potential, though.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,120

    GIN1138 said:

    Anybody know if we're getting the ComRes/IOS poll tonight? It should be due this weekend, I think, but nothing at John Rentouls blog?

    I think it has been bumped to next week.
    Thanks TSE. :)

    So it's just Opinium (which we've had) and YouGov tonight?

    Plus IndyRef?

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    MikeK said:

    isam said:

    I think the Observer are suffering a case of post hoc ergo propter hocitis

    Ukip have taken a shock six-percentage-point leap in the polls following confirmation that Nigel Farage is intending to stand in a Tory seat in Kent. An Opinium/Observer poll has Farage's party on 21%. It appears that Ukip has taken support from both the Tories and Labour.

    Ed Miliband's party is down three points, leaving it on 32%, and the Conservatives are down four points to 28%. The Liberal Democrats have enjoyed a small rise of three points to 10%.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/16/ukip-surge-popularity-farage-thanet

    What does your first sentence mean in English?
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: "after this, therefore because of this") is a logical fallacy (of the questionable cause variety) that states "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc
    Oooh, aren't we clever! The only fact to see is that UKIP are on the rise and gaining members and supporters; all else is fluff.
    No, Mr K. The word you are looking for is "educated"!
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anybody know if we're getting the ComRes/IOS poll tonight? It should be due this weekend, I think, but nothing at John Rentouls blog?

    I think it has been bumped to next week.
    Thanks TSE. :)

    So it's just Opinium (which we've had) and YouGov tonight?

    Plus IndyRef?

    Yup, and two indyref polls.

    ICM and Panelbase
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Morris_Dancer
    Apart from the Cruachan dam, the water pressure in the river systems is a direct result of the rain?
    Therefore rain = hydro
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Smarmeron, no. Rainfall in places away from major rivers with hydroelectric systems in place doesn't result in any electricity. Lots of rainwater just seeps away into the soil.
  • SeanT said:

    According to reports from Channel 4, Obama's blithe decision to say "the siege of Sinjar is over" gave ISIS the green light to attack the Yazidi again.

    Yesterday they slaughtered 100 Yazidi men in one hour, in one village, and enslaved 300 women and children.

    In total, according to Yazidi leaders, 350 Yazidi men were murdered yesterday, and 1000 women and kids hauled off to be raped and enslaved.

    The genocide, in other words, continues. And Obama's stupid, catastrophic incompetence has facilitated the killing. And Britain sits back and does nothing at all.

    We will remember these days with shame.

    Now watch this drive....

    I find it quite amazing how much flack Bush got (and quite rightly so), but Part-Time Obama is still treated like he is god.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Morris_Dancer
    There is no solar or wind power either if you use that argument.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Urquhart, I'd guess because there was an unholy zeal behind Obama (perhaps similar to Blair, but I wasn't into politics when the vacuous smirk first became PM). When people really get behind someone and become emotionally invested they don't want to criticise him as much, because it means confessing that they were completely wrong and made an error of judgement.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Smarmeron, you can get solar panels or a wind turbine for your house. Unless you live right next to a river, you cannot get a hydroelectric plant. If rainwater could itself be used to generate power then practically every garden in Britain could theoretically be used to generate power, a situation which does not exist for hydroelectric.

    Sun, wind and rain fall everywhere. Rivers are common the UK but they aren't everywhere.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited August 2014
    Remarkably little comment on the upsurge in UKIP support on here.

    Hardly surprising when the headlines every day seem to shout 'vote UKIP'

    People are looking on at ISIS appalled.

    Farage has been very clever to say nothing whatsoever about the middle east.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    FPT for our separatist sceptics::

    Scottish Women:

    Alex Salmond's presence as leader of Yes makes me more/less likely to vote for independence:
    More : 24
    Less: 51
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited August 2014
    @Morris_Dancer
    You never specified that all the rain had to be used, I was pointing out that we already have a method for turning rain into electricity?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    taffys said:

    Remarkably little comment on the upsurge in UKIP support on here.

    Hardly surprising when the headlines every day seem to shout 'vote UKIP'

    People are looking on at ISIS appalled.

    Farage has been very clever to say nothing whatsoever about the middle east.

    Its panelbase day, what did you expect?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,145
    surbiton said:

    Boris can also "galvanise" voters in Liverpool.

    And that might give exactly how many Labour gains?
  • FPT for our separatist sceptics::

    Scottish Women:

    Alex Salmond's presence as leader of Yes makes me more/less likely to vote for independence:
    More : 24
    Less: 51

    Ho ho. Who is that pale blue wiggly line way, way down at the bottom of this chart?

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/contactus/offices/scotland/indyref2014/polling/leaderimage.aspx

    PODWAS
  • So, now the Panelbase findings are getting deleted. I wonder why? :):):)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Dickson, bit sleepy, but couldn't see Miliband's name there, which surprised me.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    So, now the Panelbase findings are getting deleted. I wonder why? :):):)

    I think a thread is already being prepared for it.
  • So, now the Panelbase findings are getting deleted. I wonder why? :):):)

    As stated earlier on this thread, that poll is currently embargoed until midnight, and PB is observing that embargo.
  • Speedy said:

    So, now the Panelbase findings are getting deleted. I wonder why? :):):)

    I think a thread is already being prepared for it.
    Indeed, it goes up at midnight.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    So, now the Panelbase findings are getting deleted. I wonder why? :):):)

    As stated earlier on this thread, that poll is currently embargoed until midnight, and PB is observing that embargo.
    Well me and HUYFD can laugh with the travails of Rick Perry until then.
    I think he is going to plead politics about the indictment for abuse of power by a grand jury and get away with it:
    http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Buzz/2014/0816/Texas-Gov.-Rick-Perry-indicted-Real-trouble-or-partisan-snit
  • New Thread
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    FPT for our separatist sceptics::

    Scottish Women:

    Alex Salmond's presence as leader of Yes makes me more/less likely to vote for independence:
    More : 24
    Less: 51

    Ho ho. Who is that pale blue wiggly line way, way down at the bottom of this chart?

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/contactus/offices/scotland/indyref2014/polling/leaderimage.aspx

    PODWAS
    Why has Sturgeon taken such a fall lately ? I thought she was the darling [ note: small letters ] of Scotland
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    taffys said:

    Remarkably little comment on the upsurge in UKIP support on here.

    Hardly surprising when the headlines every day seem to shout 'vote UKIP'

    People are looking on at ISIS appalled.

    Farage has been very clever to say nothing whatsoever about the middle east.

    Are UKIP planning to stand against ISIS? In which constituencies?
This discussion has been closed.