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The rise and rise of Trump in the WH2024 nomination betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 11 in General
imageThe rise and rise of Trump in the WH2024 nomination betting – politicalbetting.com

Following on from the previous post by TSE the above chart shows the latest betting for the Republican nomination at the 2024 White House election.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    Personally I'd say Trump is still mild value at these odds. The party is still his, and the nomination his for the taking. And it looks like he wants it.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 702
    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707
    edited October 11
    Quincel said:

    Personally I'd say Trump is still mild value at these odds. The party is still his, and the nomination his for the taking. And it looks like he wants it.

    The only scenario in which I see him not being the nominee, absent the conditions Aslan mentions, is if his GOP slate does badly in the mid-terms. Alas, that is not looking likely.
  • whoisz_whoisz_ Posts: 3
    I hope nobody has forgotten about what occurred during January 6th 2021? MAGA storming the capital?
    You would think the Jan 6 the committee are going to proceed and allow Trump to pull another coupd'etat?
    The GOP are losing there base, midterm elections if and only if the GOP achieves impossible and win both Houses / Senate?
    Then there is a possibility, and Trump won't go anywhere near the White House if President Biden is still there. God forbid anything happens to him.

    My money is on GOP losing 2022 midterm, and losing the 2024 election, and Jan 6 the was pivotal moment in US history, and since of its creation and formation this evening is there crossing, Point of No Return.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,701
    whoisz_ said:

    I hope nobody has forgotten about what occurred during January 6th 2021? MAGA storming the capital?
    You would think the Jan 6 the committee are going to proceed and allow Trump to pull another coupd'etat?
    The GOP are losing there base, midterm elections if and only if the GOP achieves impossible and win both Houses / Senate?
    Then there is a possibility, and Trump won't go anywhere near the White House if President Biden is still there. God forbid anything happens to him.

    My money is on GOP losing 2022 midterm, and losing the 2024 election, and Jan 6 the was pivotal moment in US history, and since of its creation and formation this evening is there crossing, Point of No Return.

    Do you think January the 6th was pivotal, or merely that it should have been? There's a difference. Lots of things that ought to happen, don't.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,602
    whoisz_ said:

    I hope nobody has forgotten about what occurred during January 6th 2021? MAGA storming the capital?
    You would think the Jan 6 the committee are going to proceed and allow Trump to pull another coupd'etat?
    The GOP are losing there base, midterm elections if and only if the GOP achieves impossible and win both Houses / Senate?
    Then there is a possibility, and Trump won't go anywhere near the White House if President Biden is still there. God forbid anything happens to him.

    My money is on GOP losing 2022 midterm, and losing the 2024 election, and Jan 6 the was pivotal moment in US history, and since of its creation and formation this evening is there crossing, Point of No Return.

    GOP taking both House and Senate is definitely not impossible. It's pretty simple: They only barely won them in 2020, the president's party nearly always loses ground in the mid-terms, and Biden is fairly unpopular right now.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,602

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,602

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503

    whoisz_ said:

    I hope nobody has forgotten about what occurred during January 6th 2021? MAGA storming the capital?
    You would think the Jan 6 the committee are going to proceed and allow Trump to pull another coupd'etat?
    The GOP are losing there base, midterm elections if and only if the GOP achieves impossible and win both Houses / Senate?
    Then there is a possibility, and Trump won't go anywhere near the White House if President Biden is still there. God forbid anything happens to him.

    My money is on GOP losing 2022 midterm, and losing the 2024 election, and Jan 6 the was pivotal moment in US history, and since of its creation and formation this evening is there crossing, Point of No Return.

    GOP taking both House and Senate is definitely not impossible. It's pretty simple: They only barely won them in 2020, the president's party nearly always loses ground in the mid-terms, and Biden is fairly unpopular right now.
    The Dems have to make 2022 a battle of of Sensible vs Trump. If they do that, they stand a chance.

    But I suspect that 2022 will be a repeat of 2018. The Dems will lose the House, but retain the Senate.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    TimT said:

    Quincel said:

    Personally I'd say Trump is still mild value at these odds. The party is still his, and the nomination his for the taking. And it looks like he wants it.

    The only scenario in which I see him not being the nominee, absent the conditions Aslan mentions, is if his GOP slate does badly in the mid-terms. Alas, that is not looking likely.
    Right now, the Dems have a three point lead in the Generic Congressional ballot. That's not enough to hold the House, but it's not far off. And the Republicans have a pretty difficult set of Senate races. (As compared to 2024, when then have a great set.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931
    Trump’s Republican party.

    This guy is running for the Republican nomination for Texas governor, and currently hospitalised with Covid…

    https://twitter.com/AllenWest/status/1447195963542679552
    I can attest that, after this experience, I am even more dedicated to fighting against vaccine mandates. Instead of enriching the pockets of Big Pharma and corrupt bureaucrats and politicians, we should be advocating the monoclonal antibody infusion therapy.

    And apparently unaware that ‘the Regeneron’ is $1250 per shot.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,523
    2020 was a pretty dismal choice - 333 million people in the US and the voters get offered Trump or Biden.

    To be offered that choice again in 2024 would be a damning indictment of democracy in the US. The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was "not Trump". There was nothing else to commend the guy at all, other than he knew where the coffee machine was in the White House. When 2024 is "not Biden....but....hell, him again???" how low can turnout go?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Nigelb said:

    Trump’s Republican party.

    This guy is running for the Republican nomination for Texas governor, and currently hospitalised with Covid…

    https://twitter.com/AllenWest/status/1447195963542679552
    I can attest that, after this experience, I am even more dedicated to fighting against vaccine mandates. Instead of enriching the pockets of Big Pharma and corrupt bureaucrats and politicians, we should be advocating the monoclonal antibody infusion therapy.

    And apparently unaware that ‘the Regeneron’ is $1250 per shot.

    The regeneron results have also been... average.

    Mind you, probably better than the dewormer that @rural_voter was recommending.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503

    2020 was a pretty dismal choice - 333 million people in the US and the voters get offered Trump or Biden.

    To be offered that choice again in 2024 would be a damning indictment of democracy in the US. The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was "not Trump". There was nothing else to commend the guy at all, other than he knew where the coffee machine was in the White House. When 2024 is "not Biden....but....hell, him again???" how low can turnout go?

    2020 was a pretty dismal choice - 333 million people in the US and the voters get offered Trump or Biden.

    To be offered that choice again in 2024 would be a damning indictment of democracy in the US. The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was "not Trump". There was nothing else to commend the guy at all, other than he knew where the coffee machine was in the White House. When 2024 is "not Biden....but....hell, him again???" how low can turnout go?

    I think it unlikely that Biden will stand again.

    My hope is that Trump gets whipped in 2024. But it doesn't matter if it's 2:1, he will continue to claim he won in a landslide, poisoning US democracy.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 885

    2020 was a pretty dismal choice - 333 million people in the US and the voters get offered Trump or Biden.

    To be offered that choice again in 2024 would be a damning indictment of democracy in the US. The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was "not Trump". There was nothing else to commend the guy at all, other than he knew where the coffee machine was in the White House. When 2024 is "not Biden....but....hell, him again???" how low can turnout go?

    I think they are working on the problem, aren't they?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,742
    Morning all.

    Interesting on languages spoken by the Duke of Edinburgh on the previous thread; I would hope that his long experience would give him a strong understanding of what Brussels has become.

    On speaking languages, do we have any extended video of Boris speaking say French, Italian, German or Spanish?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927

    2020 was a pretty dismal choice - 333 million people in the US and the voters get offered Trump or Biden.

    To be offered that choice again in 2024 would be a damning indictment of democracy in the US. The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was "not Trump". There was nothing else to commend the guy at all, other than he knew where the coffee machine was in the White House. When 2024 is "not Biden....but....hell, him again???" how low can turnout go?

    The only worse choice than in 2020, was probably the choice they had in 2016.

    Can’t the two parties come up with one sensible candidate between them? For all we used to go on about Obama and GW Bush, they look like titans compared to today’s politicians on both sides of the aisle.

    The parties going with Trump v Biden again, but aged 78 and 82 this time, would be a terrible exercise in democracy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    edited October 11
    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    Interesting on languages spoken by the Duke of Edinburgh on the previous thread; I would hope that his long experience would give him a strong understanding of what Brussels has become.

    On speaking languages, do we have any extended video of Boris speaking say French, Italian, German or Spanish?

    Boris, as mayor of London, being interviewed for 10 minutes for French TV, in French.
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=cYsBDniEeWo

    He did switch to English when more serious subjects were raised, obviously didn’t want to mis-speak and cause a diplomatic incident.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Sandpit said:

    2020 was a pretty dismal choice - 333 million people in the US and the voters get offered Trump or Biden.

    To be offered that choice again in 2024 would be a damning indictment of democracy in the US. The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was "not Trump". There was nothing else to commend the guy at all, other than he knew where the coffee machine was in the White House. When 2024 is "not Biden....but....hell, him again???" how low can turnout go?

    The only worse choice than in 2020, was probably the choice they had in 2016.

    Can’t the two parties come up with one sensible candidate between them? For all we used to go on about Obama and GW Bush, they look like titans compared to today’s politicians on both sides of the aisle.

    The parties going with Trump v Biden again, but aged 78 and 82 this time, would be a terrible exercise in democracy.
    Well, if it hadn't been for Bloomberg and the Iowa Democratic Party, then it would probably be President Klobuchar or Buttigieg.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,005
    Nigelb said:

    Trump’s Republican party.

    This guy is running for the Republican nomination for Texas governor, and currently hospitalised with Covid…

    https://twitter.com/AllenWest/status/1447195963542679552
    I can attest that, after this experience, I am even more dedicated to fighting against vaccine mandates. Instead of enriching the pockets of Big Pharma and corrupt bureaucrats and politicians, we should be advocating the monoclonal antibody infusion therapy.

    And apparently unaware that ‘the Regeneron’ is $1250 per shot.

    But "As Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis criss-crosses the state opening monoclonal antibody treatment centers using Regeneron as a post-exposure prevention for COVID-19, he is also being criticized because one of his top donors is a Regeneron investor."
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 927
    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    The problem is that politicians find themselves squeezed: on the one hand they want to do what is right (and to avoid civil war), and on the other hand, their own supporters have been whipped into a frenzy with stories about the election was stolen.

    Some people have done the right thing. But too many have chosen to repeat what they know to be lies, because either they see short term political advantage in it, or because they are scared of the consequences of confronting it.

    America is broken.
    Yes - hard to see how the situation can be resolved, because you have an extreme polarisation, coupled with paranoia on both sides.

    It poses the question why the UK would enter long term defensive alliances with such an unstable country.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    2020 was a pretty dismal choice - 333 million people in the US and the voters get offered Trump or Biden.

    To be offered that choice again in 2024 would be a damning indictment of democracy in the US. The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was "not Trump". There was nothing else to commend the guy at all, other than he knew where the coffee machine was in the White House. When 2024 is "not Biden....but....hell, him again???" how low can turnout go?

    The only worse choice than in 2020, was probably the choice they had in 2016.

    Can’t the two parties come up with one sensible candidate between them? For all we used to go on about Obama and GW Bush, they look like titans compared to today’s politicians on both sides of the aisle.

    The parties going with Trump v Biden again, but aged 78 and 82 this time, would be a terrible exercise in democracy.
    Well, if it hadn't been for Bloomberg and the Iowa Democratic Party, then it would probably be President Klobuchar or Buttigieg.
    The Iowa primary would have been laugh-out-loud funny, if it wasn’t so serious.

    The state that invests a huge amount of time and money, to get the publicity of being the first primary, and then can’t organise the proverbial party in a brewery on the night.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    Nigelb said:

    Trump’s Republican party.

    This guy is running for the Republican nomination for Texas governor, and currently hospitalised with Covid…

    https://twitter.com/AllenWest/status/1447195963542679552
    I can attest that, after this experience, I am even more dedicated to fighting against vaccine mandates. Instead of enriching the pockets of Big Pharma and corrupt bureaucrats and politicians, we should be advocating the monoclonal antibody infusion therapy.

    And apparently unaware that ‘the Regeneron’ is $1250 per shot.

    There’s some very weird people in the States, when it comes to healthcare.

    Otherwise sensible people have come up with all sorts of crap over the past 18 months, to justify their own decisions to take particular medication, or not to get vaccinated. Looking at you, Joe Rogan.
  • Like The Met, Police Scotland needs nuking as well.

    Dozens of police officers in Scotland have been accused of sexual misconduct in the past four years but none has been dismissed, an investigation has found.

    Since 2017 the national force has had 166 officers and special constables accused of more than 245 separate sexual offences.

    Channel 4 Dispatches found that no one had been dismissed from Police Scotland over these allegations, claiming that some serving officers with proven cases of misconduct remained on active duty.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dozens-of-scottish-police-keep-jobs-despite-sex-claims-5x99g5pr8
  • rcs1000 said:

    2020 was a pretty dismal choice - 333 million people in the US and the voters get offered Trump or Biden.

    To be offered that choice again in 2024 would be a damning indictment of democracy in the US. The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was "not Trump". There was nothing else to commend the guy at all, other than he knew where the coffee machine was in the White House. When 2024 is "not Biden....but....hell, him again???" how low can turnout go?

    2020 was a pretty dismal choice - 333 million people in the US and the voters get offered Trump or Biden.

    To be offered that choice again in 2024 would be a damning indictment of democracy in the US. The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was "not Trump". There was nothing else to commend the guy at all, other than he knew where the coffee machine was in the White House. When 2024 is "not Biden....but....hell, him again???" how low can turnout go?

    I think it unlikely that Biden will stand again.

    My hope is that Trump gets whipped in 2024. But it doesn't matter if it's 2:1, he will continue to claim he won in a landslide, poisoning US democracy.
    Lovely hopeful thought, but if (say) you are a Republican not-Trumper, what to do do to encourage a move from here to there?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    whoisz_ said:

    I hope nobody has forgotten about what occurred during January 6th 2021? MAGA storming the capital?
    You would think the Jan 6 the committee are going to proceed and allow Trump to pull another coupd'etat?
    The GOP are losing there base, midterm elections if and only if the GOP achieves impossible and win both Houses / Senate?
    Then there is a possibility, and Trump won't go anywhere near the White House if President Biden is still there. God forbid anything happens to him.

    My money is on GOP losing 2022 midterm, and losing the 2024 election, and Jan 6 the was pivotal moment in US history, and since of its creation and formation this evening is there crossing, Point of No Return.

    Welcome to PB.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,189

    Like The Met, Police Scotland needs nuking as well.

    Dozens of police officers in Scotland have been accused of sexual misconduct in the past four years but none has been dismissed, an investigation has found.

    Since 2017 the national force has had 166 officers and special constables accused of more than 245 separate sexual offences.

    Channel 4 Dispatches found that no one had been dismissed from Police Scotland over these allegations, claiming that some serving officers with proven cases of misconduct remained on active duty.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dozens-of-scottish-police-keep-jobs-despite-sex-claims-5x99g5pr8

    For god's sake that is just appalling.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519

    Nigelb said:

    Trump’s Republican party.

    This guy is running for the Republican nomination for Texas governor, and currently hospitalised with Covid…

    https://twitter.com/AllenWest/status/1447195963542679552
    I can attest that, after this experience, I am even more dedicated to fighting against vaccine mandates. Instead of enriching the pockets of Big Pharma and corrupt bureaucrats and politicians, we should be advocating the monoclonal antibody infusion therapy.

    And apparently unaware that ‘the Regeneron’ is $1250 per shot.

    But "As Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis criss-crosses the state opening monoclonal antibody treatment centers using Regeneron as a post-exposure prevention for COVID-19, he is also being criticized because one of his top donors is a Regeneron investor."
    Using Regeneron as post exposure prophylaxis rather than get vaccinated? Is that correct?

    America is insane.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,189
    DavidL said:

    Like The Met, Police Scotland needs nuking as well.

    Dozens of police officers in Scotland have been accused of sexual misconduct in the past four years but none has been dismissed, an investigation has found.

    Since 2017 the national force has had 166 officers and special constables accused of more than 245 separate sexual offences.

    Channel 4 Dispatches found that no one had been dismissed from Police Scotland over these allegations, claiming that some serving officers with proven cases of misconduct remained on active duty.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dozens-of-scottish-police-keep-jobs-despite-sex-claims-5x99g5pr8

    For god's sake that is just appalling.
    It makes stories like this seem completely unsurprising: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/oct/09/tribunal-finds-evidence-of-sexist-culture-in-scotlands-armed-police
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,835

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    I don’t think it’s outrageous - it’s fine as a pragmatic solution for a dispute resolution mechanism that should never be needed.

    But it was designed for a different era. And as Trump (and Blair before him to a lesser degree) showed the damage you can do if you don’t care about precedent and norms
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,893
    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    Interesting on languages spoken by the Duke of Edinburgh on the previous thread; I would hope that his long experience would give him a strong understanding of what Brussels has become.

    On speaking languages, do we have any extended video of Boris speaking say French, Italian, German or Spanish?

    I've seen Johnson speaking French on French TV. He's not very good, I'd rate him CERF B1 at best, but he was having a go.

    US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is very good. I've heard him do long form panel interviews on French radio with aplomb.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    Quincel said:

    Personally I'd say Trump is still mild value at these odds. The party is still his, and the nomination his for the taking. And it looks like he wants it.

    The only scenario in which I see him not being the nominee, absent the conditions Aslan mentions, is if his GOP slate does badly in the mid-terms. Alas, that is not looking likely.
    Right now, the Dems have a three point lead in the Generic Congressional ballot. That's not enough to hold the House, but it's not far off. And the Republicans have a pretty difficult set of Senate races. (As compared to 2024, when then have a great set.)
    Florida redisrticting is going ot be brutal.

    Unlike other GOP states Florida doesn't currently have a massively gerrymandered map because the Florida Supreme court struck down the last GOP attempt at doing so. Since then the Florida SC has swung very rightwards and there's loads of scope for the GOP to knock out a bunch of Dem seats.

    I haven't worked out where I think the Dem par line should be but 3% is going to be way under at the moment I think,
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump’s Republican party.

    This guy is running for the Republican nomination for Texas governor, and currently hospitalised with Covid…

    https://twitter.com/AllenWest/status/1447195963542679552
    I can attest that, after this experience, I am even more dedicated to fighting against vaccine mandates. Instead of enriching the pockets of Big Pharma and corrupt bureaucrats and politicians, we should be advocating the monoclonal antibody infusion therapy.

    And apparently unaware that ‘the Regeneron’ is $1250 per shot.

    But "As Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis criss-crosses the state opening monoclonal antibody treatment centers using Regeneron as a post-exposure prevention for COVID-19, he is also being criticized because one of his top donors is a Regeneron investor."
    Using Regeneron as post exposure prophylaxis rather than get vaccinated? Is that correct?

    America is insane.
    Here is the line of thinking.

    The Covid Vaccines have only been given an Emergency Use Authorisation by the FDA thus they are deeply experimental and dangerous and shouldn't be used as you can't trust Big Pharm and the vaccines were developed from foetal tissues so are immoral. It is far better to use Regeneron, a treatment that has been given *Checks Notes* Emergency Use Authorisation only and was developed from foetal tissues etc.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931
    edited October 11
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump’s Republican party.

    This guy is running for the Republican nomination for Texas governor, and currently hospitalised with Covid…

    https://twitter.com/AllenWest/status/1447195963542679552
    I can attest that, after this experience, I am even more dedicated to fighting against vaccine mandates. Instead of enriching the pockets of Big Pharma and corrupt bureaucrats and politicians, we should be advocating the monoclonal antibody infusion therapy.

    And apparently unaware that ‘the Regeneron’ is $1250 per shot.

    But "As Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis criss-crosses the state opening monoclonal antibody treatment centers using Regeneron as a post-exposure prevention for COVID-19, he is also being criticized because one of his top donors is a Regeneron investor."
    Using Regeneron as post exposure prophylaxis rather than get vaccinated? Is that correct?

    America is insane.
    It's the new (Trump) Republican healthcare orthodoxy, since being pro vaccine might lose some of the Trump base.

    An extreme example of irrational partisanship.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 66

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    I kind of agree. I think there is a great elegance to the US's system of checks and balances.
    Simplifying somewhat, there is the President, whose role is purely executive. They enforce federal law and administer the government. Then you have Congress to pass the laws and a supreme court which guards the constitution. Of course, if the legislature disagrees with the Supreme Court on Constitutionality of a law, they can ammended the Constitution, but the bar for doing so is high. The President appoints the court, and being closer to the people, makes appointments in their interest, with the August and Distinguished men (and women) of the Senate charged with their confirmation. I do think this is quite elegant. The problem is, it only works when everyone has the interests of the nation and the people at heart rather than narrow partisan advantage... It's a bit like a beautiful, but unreliable car.

    The UK system is much simpler. Parliament declared themselves Supreme and that's pretty much the long and short of it. Less elegant, but less scope for messing about.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    I don't think the last option is now possible - the attempt after Jan 6th failed and any financial issues seem to be removed enough that Trump won't be directly involved.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    2020 was a pretty dismal choice - 333 million people in the US and the voters get offered Trump or Biden.

    To be offered that choice again in 2024 would be a damning indictment of democracy in the US. The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was "not Trump". There was nothing else to commend the guy at all, other than he knew where the coffee machine was in the White House. When 2024 is "not Biden....but....hell, him again???" how low can turnout go?

    The only worse choice than in 2020, was probably the choice they had in 2016.

    Can’t the two parties come up with one sensible candidate between them? For all we used to go on about Obama and GW Bush, they look like titans compared to today’s politicians on both sides of the aisle.

    The parties going with Trump v Biden again, but aged 78 and 82 this time, would be a terrible exercise in democracy.
    Well, if it hadn't been for Bloomberg and the Iowa Democratic Party, then it would probably be President Klobuchar or Buttigieg.
    Amy or Pete would be a vast improvement.
    Only one of the two is a likely nominee in 2024.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,893
    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    I don't think the last option is now possible - the attempt after Jan 6th failed and any financial issues seem to be removed enough that Trump won't be directly involved.
    I think one of the spreadsheet wankers on here worked out that his actuarial odds of karking it before 2024 are only something like 15%.

    MAGA,A!

    It's happening and we all better used to it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887
    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    Interesting on languages spoken by the Duke of Edinburgh on the previous thread; I would hope that his long experience would give him a strong understanding of what Brussels has become.

    On speaking languages, do we have any extended video of Boris speaking say French, Italian, German or Spanish?

    I have respect for the late Duke of Edinburgh as the archetypal Citizen of Nowhere, whose family were actual Nazis, and who as a teenager, and I think on his own initiative, followed his Jewish teacher from Germany to Scotland.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931
    Unpopular said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    I kind of agree. I think there is a great elegance to the US's system of checks and balances.
    Simplifying somewhat, there is the President, whose role is purely executive. They enforce federal law and administer the government. Then you have Congress to pass the laws and a supreme court which guards the constitution. Of course, if the legislature disagrees with the Supreme Court on Constitutionality of a law, they can ammended the Constitution, but the bar for doing so is high. The President appoints the court, and being closer to the people, makes appointments in their interest, with the August and Distinguished men (and women) of the Senate charged with their confirmation. I do think this is quite elegant. The problem is, it only works when everyone has the interests of the nation and the people at heart rather than narrow partisan advantage... It's a bit like a beautiful, but unreliable car.

    The UK system is much simpler. Parliament declared themselves Supreme and that's pretty much the long and short of it. Less elegant, but less scope for messing about.
    The real problem with the US constitution is the extreme difficulty of amending it.
    Some of the electoral rules, as with Charles' 'dispute resolution mechanism' (which isn't anything of the sort), are centuries old.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 66
    Nigelb said:

    Unpopular said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    I kind of agree. I think there is a great elegance to the US's system of checks and balances.
    Simplifying somewhat, there is the President, whose role is purely executive. They enforce federal law and administer the government. Then you have Congress to pass the laws and a supreme court which guards the constitution. Of course, if the legislature disagrees with the Supreme Court on Constitutionality of a law, they can ammended the Constitution, but the bar for doing so is high. The President appoints the court, and being closer to the people, makes appointments in their interest, with the August and Distinguished men (and women) of the Senate charged with their confirmation. I do think this is quite elegant. The problem is, it only works when everyone has the interests of the nation and the people at heart rather than narrow partisan advantage... It's a bit like a beautiful, but unreliable car.

    The UK system is much simpler. Parliament declared themselves Supreme and that's pretty much the long and short of it. Less elegant, but less scope for messing about.
    The real problem with the US constitution is the extreme difficulty of amending it.
    Some of the electoral rules, as with Charles' 'dispute resolution mechanism' (which isn't anything of the sort), are centuries old.
    Oh, of course. I mean there are many, many problems. The rigidity of the Constitution is one, becoming harder to amend with each new admission to the Union. Sometimes the constitution must be amended as a legal and even moral necessity but this is a practical impossibility so you get weirdness where other branches take it on. The liberal use of the Commerce clause to enforce federal laws on the states, or the use of the Supreme Court to introduce constitutional rights that aren't really written into the document. In the UK we would (and have) simply pass a law.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    I don't think the last option is now possible - the attempt after Jan 6th failed and any financial issues seem to be removed enough that Trump won't be directly involved.
    I think one of the spreadsheet wankers on here worked out that his actuarial odds of karking it before 2024 are only something like 15%.

    MAGA,A!

    It's happening and we all better used to it.
    It's probably 15% death, plus another 15% for an ailment sufficiently serious as to prevent running again.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    FF43 said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    Interesting on languages spoken by the Duke of Edinburgh on the previous thread; I would hope that his long experience would give him a strong understanding of what Brussels has become.

    On speaking languages, do we have any extended video of Boris speaking say French, Italian, German or Spanish?

    I have respect for the late Duke of Edinburgh as the archetypal Citizen of Nowhere, whose family were actual Nazis, and who as a teenager, and I think on his own initiative, followed his Jewish teacher from Germany to Scotland.
    Did the Jewish teacher get away, or was he successfully hunted by the Duke?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,393
    Unpopular said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    I kind of agree. I think there is a great elegance to the US's system of checks and balances.
    Simplifying somewhat, there is the President, whose role is purely executive. They enforce federal law and administer the government. Then you have Congress to pass the laws and a supreme court which guards the constitution. Of course, if the legislature disagrees with the Supreme Court on Constitutionality of a law, they can ammended the Constitution, but the bar for doing so is high. The President appoints the court, and being closer to the people, makes appointments in their interest, with the August and Distinguished men (and women) of the Senate charged with their confirmation. I do think this is quite elegant. The problem is, it only works when everyone has the interests of the nation and the people at heart rather than narrow partisan advantage... It's a bit like a beautiful, but unreliable car.

    The UK system is much simpler. Parliament declared themselves Supreme and that's pretty much the long and short of it. Less elegant, but less scope for messing about.
    Nice nuanced post. I've not seen your posts before, so belated welcome to the forum - I hope you'll contribute frequently.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477
    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    I don't think the last option is now possible - the attempt after Jan 6th failed and any financial issues seem to be removed enough that Trump won't be directly involved.
    If one of the sons fancies it for themselves, next time is surely the best chance, before the Trump bandwagon moves on, or the father manages to ruin everything.

    Maybe one of the sons will find a way to put Donald out of the race? ;)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,193
    Nigelb said:

    Unpopular said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    I kind of agree. I think there is a great elegance to the US's system of checks and balances.
    Simplifying somewhat, there is the President, whose role is purely executive. They enforce federal law and administer the government. Then you have Congress to pass the laws and a supreme court which guards the constitution. Of course, if the legislature disagrees with the Supreme Court on Constitutionality of a law, they can ammended the Constitution, but the bar for doing so is high. The President appoints the court, and being closer to the people, makes appointments in their interest, with the August and Distinguished men (and women) of the Senate charged with their confirmation. I do think this is quite elegant. The problem is, it only works when everyone has the interests of the nation and the people at heart rather than narrow partisan advantage... It's a bit like a beautiful, but unreliable car.

    The UK system is much simpler. Parliament declared themselves Supreme and that's pretty much the long and short of it. Less elegant, but less scope for messing about.
    The real problem with the US constitution is the extreme difficulty of amending it.
    Some of the electoral rules, as with Charles' 'dispute resolution mechanism' (which isn't anything of the sort), are centuries old.
    Indeed. The stability of the written constitution is something that is great when it works, but becomes a burden when it doesn't.

    The other issue with tackling things from an overly legalistic viewpoint is you lose sight of "should we do this" and it simply becomes "can we do this".

    If the rules say you can overturn democratic results then why not act like Tom Cotton, the Secretary of State candidates mentioned, Dominic Grieve in the UK etc trying to upend and overturn democratic results?

    Once you lose sight of why we had the vote in the first place and put victory at all costs and the rules at the centre of your viewpoint then you descend into very dangerous territory.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    Quincel said:

    Personally I'd say Trump is still mild value at these odds. The party is still his, and the nomination his for the taking. And it looks like he wants it.

    The only scenario in which I see him not being the nominee, absent the conditions Aslan mentions, is if his GOP slate does badly in the mid-terms. Alas, that is not looking likely.
    Right now, the Dems have a three point lead in the Generic Congressional ballot. That's not enough to hold the House, but it's not far off. And the Republicans have a pretty difficult set of Senate races. (As compared to 2024, when then have a great set.)
    Florida redisrticting is going ot be brutal.

    Unlike other GOP states Florida doesn't currently have a massively gerrymandered map because the Florida Supreme court struck down the last GOP attempt at doing so. Since then the Florida SC has swung very rightwards and there's loads of scope for the GOP to knock out a bunch of Dem seats.

    I haven't worked out where I think the Dem par line should be but 3% is going to be way under at the moment I think,
    As I pointed out yesterday, Texas' changing voter demographics are unlikely to benefit the Democrats this cycle, for very much the same reason.
    https://www.texastribune.org/2021/10/08/texas-congressional-map-redistricting/
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,835
    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    I don't think the last option is now possible - the attempt after Jan 6th failed and any financial issues seem to be removed enough that Trump won't be directly involved.
    If one of the sons fancies it for themselves, next time is surely the best chance, before the Trump bandwagon moves on, or the father manages to ruin everything.

    Maybe one of the sons will find a way to put Donald out of the race? ;)
    I don’t think Succession starts until next week…
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,742

    Unpopular said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    I kind of agree. I think there is a great elegance to the US's system of checks and balances.
    Simplifying somewhat, there is the President, whose role is purely executive. They enforce federal law and administer the government. Then you have Congress to pass the laws and a supreme court which guards the constitution. Of course, if the legislature disagrees with the Supreme Court on Constitutionality of a law, they can ammended the Constitution, but the bar for doing so is high. The President appoints the court, and being closer to the people, makes appointments in their interest, with the August and Distinguished men (and women) of the Senate charged with their confirmation. I do think this is quite elegant. The problem is, it only works when everyone has the interests of the nation and the people at heart rather than narrow partisan advantage... It's a bit like a beautiful, but unreliable car.

    The UK system is much simpler. Parliament declared themselves Supreme and that's pretty much the long and short of it. Less elegant, but less scope for messing about.
    Nice nuanced post. I've not seen your posts before, so belated welcome to the forum - I hope you'll contribute frequently.
    I like the "beautiful but unreliable car".

    That's rather the reverse of 99% of cars from the USA :smile: .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,461
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump’s Republican party.

    This guy is running for the Republican nomination for Texas governor, and currently hospitalised with Covid…

    https://twitter.com/AllenWest/status/1447195963542679552
    I can attest that, after this experience, I am even more dedicated to fighting against vaccine mandates. Instead of enriching the pockets of Big Pharma and corrupt bureaucrats and politicians, we should be advocating the monoclonal antibody infusion therapy.

    And apparently unaware that ‘the Regeneron’ is $1250 per shot.

    But "As Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis criss-crosses the state opening monoclonal antibody treatment centers using Regeneron as a post-exposure prevention for COVID-19, he is also being criticized because one of his top donors is a Regeneron investor."
    Using Regeneron as post exposure prophylaxis rather than get vaccinated? Is that correct?

    America is insane.
    It's the new (Trump) Republican healthcare orthodoxy, since being pro vaccine might lose some of the Trump base.

    An extreme example of irrational partisanship.
    Having taken science to its pinnacle with the moon landings, America now seems determined to return to the Dark Ages.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,393
    edited October 11

    whoisz_ said:

    I hope nobody has forgotten about what occurred during January 6th 2021? MAGA storming the capital?
    You would think the Jan 6 the committee are going to proceed and allow Trump to pull another coupd'etat?
    The GOP are losing there base, midterm elections if and only if the GOP achieves impossible and win both Houses / Senate?
    Then there is a possibility, and Trump won't go anywhere near the White House if President Biden is still there. God forbid anything happens to him.

    My money is on GOP losing 2022 midterm, and losing the 2024 election, and Jan 6 the was pivotal moment in US history, and since of its creation and formation this evening is there crossing, Point of No Return.

    Welcome to PB.
    Yes, welcome! The polls are interesting, in that they do show that the Biden honeymoon is wearing off (ignoring Rasmussen and Trsfalgar, he hovers around net 0 approvql), but the generic Democrat poll lead remains significant. Floating voters are being quite rational - "Biden seems to be kinda stuck, but I'm not voting for those GOP loons." There's a case for laying Biden, on the basis that he might either lose to Trump or lose to a "I can beat Trump better" candidate in the primaries. I'm not sure that's either Klobouchar or Buttigieg, though - they seem like nice people without a killer instinct.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,637
    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    I don't think the last option is now possible - the attempt after Jan 6th failed and any financial issues seem to be removed enough that Trump won't be directly involved.
    If one of the sons fancies it for themselves, next time is surely the best chance, before the Trump bandwagon moves on, or the father manages to ruin everything.

    Maybe one of the sons will find a way to put Donald out of the race? ;)
    Eric and Don Jnr. are as frightening as the father. I have higher hopes for Ivanka.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,193
    MattW said:

    Unpopular said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    I kind of agree. I think there is a great elegance to the US's system of checks and balances.
    Simplifying somewhat, there is the President, whose role is purely executive. They enforce federal law and administer the government. Then you have Congress to pass the laws and a supreme court which guards the constitution. Of course, if the legislature disagrees with the Supreme Court on Constitutionality of a law, they can ammended the Constitution, but the bar for doing so is high. The President appoints the court, and being closer to the people, makes appointments in their interest, with the August and Distinguished men (and women) of the Senate charged with their confirmation. I do think this is quite elegant. The problem is, it only works when everyone has the interests of the nation and the people at heart rather than narrow partisan advantage... It's a bit like a beautiful, but unreliable car.

    The UK system is much simpler. Parliament declared themselves Supreme and that's pretty much the long and short of it. Less elegant, but less scope for messing about.
    Nice nuanced post. I've not seen your posts before, so belated welcome to the forum - I hope you'll contribute frequently.
    I like the "beautiful but unreliable car".

    That's rather the reverse of 99% of cars from the USA :smile: .
    You think American cars are reliable?

    I was under the impression Ford stood for Fix Or Repair Daily.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,393
    Sandpit said:

    2020 was a pretty dismal choice - 333 million people in the US and the voters get offered Trump or Biden.

    To be offered that choice again in 2024 would be a damning indictment of democracy in the US. The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was "not Trump". There was nothing else to commend the guy at all, other than he knew where the coffee machine was in the White House. When 2024 is "not Biden....but....hell, him again???" how low can turnout go?

    The only worse choice than in 2020, was probably the choice they had in 2016.

    Can’t the two parties come up with one sensible candidate between them? For all we used to go on about Obama and GW Bush, they look like titans compared to today’s politicians on both sides of the aisle.

    The parties going with Trump v Biden again, but aged 78 and 82 this time, would be a terrible exercise in democracy.
    Trump vs AOC would be fun! But would probably end up with Trump winning.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931
    Unpopular said:

    Nigelb said:

    Unpopular said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    I kind of agree. I think there is a great elegance to the US's system of checks and balances.
    Simplifying somewhat, there is the President, whose role is purely executive. They enforce federal law and administer the government. Then you have Congress to pass the laws and a supreme court which guards the constitution. Of course, if the legislature disagrees with the Supreme Court on Constitutionality of a law, they can ammended the Constitution, but the bar for doing so is high. The President appoints the court, and being closer to the people, makes appointments in their interest, with the August and Distinguished men (and women) of the Senate charged with their confirmation. I do think this is quite elegant. The problem is, it only works when everyone has the interests of the nation and the people at heart rather than narrow partisan advantage... It's a bit like a beautiful, but unreliable car.

    The UK system is much simpler. Parliament declared themselves Supreme and that's pretty much the long and short of it. Less elegant, but less scope for messing about.
    The real problem with the US constitution is the extreme difficulty of amending it.
    Some of the electoral rules, as with Charles' 'dispute resolution mechanism' (which isn't anything of the sort), are centuries old.
    Oh, of course. I mean there are many, many problems. The rigidity of the Constitution is one, becoming harder to amend with each new admission to the Union. Sometimes the constitution must be amended as a legal and even moral necessity but this is a practical impossibility so you get weirdness where other branches take it on. The liberal use of the Commerce clause to enforce federal laws on the states, or the use of the Supreme Court to introduce constitutional rights that aren't really written into the document...
    On the last point, that is to accept the framing of the 1873 Supreme Court, which effectively eviscerated constitutional rights introduced by the 14th Amendment - which was clearly intended to impose such laws.

    The Slaughter House cases decision was one of the handful of most perverse decisions the Supreme Court has ever handed down.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,461

    whoisz_ said:

    I hope nobody has forgotten about what occurred during January 6th 2021? MAGA storming the capital?
    You would think the Jan 6 the committee are going to proceed and allow Trump to pull another coupd'etat?
    The GOP are losing there base, midterm elections if and only if the GOP achieves impossible and win both Houses / Senate?
    Then there is a possibility, and Trump won't go anywhere near the White House if President Biden is still there. God forbid anything happens to him.

    My money is on GOP losing 2022 midterm, and losing the 2024 election, and Jan 6 the was pivotal moment in US history, and since of its creation and formation this evening is there crossing, Point of No Return.

    Welcome to PB.
    Yes, welcome! The polls are interesting, in that they do show that the Biden honeymoon is wearing off (ignoring Rasmussen and Trsfalgar, he hovers around net 0 approvql), but the generic Democrat poll lead remains significant. Floating voters are being quite rational - "Biden seems to be kinda stuck, but I'm not voting for those GOP loons." There's a case for laying Biden, on the basis that he might either lose to Trump or lose to a "I can beat Trump better" candidate in the primaries. I'm not sure that's either Klobouchar or Buttigieg, though - they seem like nice people without a killer instinct.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
    If Biden says he's running and is still on this earth, who in Dems is going to run a primary against him?

    LBJ had a serious issue with the mess in vietnam that meant there would be a competition because many Dems were very unhappy. I can't see there being an issue of that scale in 2024.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    Interesting on languages spoken by the Duke of Edinburgh on the previous thread; I would hope that his long experience would give him a strong understanding of what Brussels has become.

    On speaking languages, do we have any extended video of Boris speaking say French, Italian, German or Spanish?

    I've seen Johnson speaking French on French TV. He's not very good, I'd rate him CERF B1 at best, but he was having a go.

    US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is very good. I've heard him do long form panel interviews on French radio with aplomb.
    I am B 1 according to.my prof.. and thats assez bien d'être compris and not much more.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927

    MattW said:

    Unpopular said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    I kind of agree. I think there is a great elegance to the US's system of checks and balances.
    Simplifying somewhat, there is the President, whose role is purely executive. They enforce federal law and administer the government. Then you have Congress to pass the laws and a supreme court which guards the constitution. Of course, if the legislature disagrees with the Supreme Court on Constitutionality of a law, they can ammended the Constitution, but the bar for doing so is high. The President appoints the court, and being closer to the people, makes appointments in their interest, with the August and Distinguished men (and women) of the Senate charged with their confirmation. I do think this is quite elegant. The problem is, it only works when everyone has the interests of the nation and the people at heart rather than narrow partisan advantage... It's a bit like a beautiful, but unreliable car.

    The UK system is much simpler. Parliament declared themselves Supreme and that's pretty much the long and short of it. Less elegant, but less scope for messing about.
    Nice nuanced post. I've not seen your posts before, so belated welcome to the forum - I hope you'll contribute frequently.
    I like the "beautiful but unreliable car".

    That's rather the reverse of 99% of cars from the USA :smile: .
    You think American cars are reliable?

    I was under the impression Ford stood for Fix Or Repair Daily.
    American cars were, until about a decade ago, uniformly rubbish. Badly put together and unreliable.

    They’re getting quite a lot better now, as the bankruptcies of 2009 have allowed them to invest in better factories, although the chip shortage has hit them quite hard and there’s long delays on many models at the moment.

    New Chevrolet Corvette is a very lovely car. It’s not quite a McLaren, but it’s 80% of one for half the price.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,476
    FF43 said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    Interesting on languages spoken by the Duke of Edinburgh on the previous thread; I would hope that his long experience would give him a strong understanding of what Brussels has become.

    On speaking languages, do we have any extended video of Boris speaking say French, Italian, German or Spanish?

    I have respect for the late Duke of Edinburgh as the archetypal Citizen of Nowhere, whose family were actual Nazis, and who as a teenager, and I think on his own initiative, followed his Jewish teacher from Germany to Scotland.
    What a romanticised view of him to say the least.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,017

    Sandpit said:

    2020 was a pretty dismal choice - 333 million people in the US and the voters get offered Trump or Biden.

    To be offered that choice again in 2024 would be a damning indictment of democracy in the US. The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was "not Trump". There was nothing else to commend the guy at all, other than he knew where the coffee machine was in the White House. When 2024 is "not Biden....but....hell, him again???" how low can turnout go?

    The only worse choice than in 2020, was probably the choice they had in 2016.

    Can’t the two parties come up with one sensible candidate between them? For all we used to go on about Obama and GW Bush, they look like titans compared to today’s politicians on both sides of the aisle.

    The parties going with Trump v Biden again, but aged 78 and 82 this time, would be a terrible exercise in democracy.
    Trump vs AOC would be fun! But would probably end up with Trump winning.
    Yes - the problem was that to oppose Trump, the Republican Establishment put up Yet Another Bush. Who was one of the more lacklustre Bushes at that....

    Biden was the safe choice - a very long history of bi-partisan coalition building. The guy who pulled things together in the Democratic party. These are very useful political skills. His biggest problem is a razor thing margin in the Senate and a Republican party in the Senate determined to frustrate every attempt to do things.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,893

    MattW said:

    Unpopular said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    I kind of agree. I think there is a great elegance to the US's system of checks and balances.
    Simplifying somewhat, there is the President, whose role is purely executive. They enforce federal law and administer the government. Then you have Congress to pass the laws and a supreme court which guards the constitution. Of course, if the legislature disagrees with the Supreme Court on Constitutionality of a law, they can ammended the Constitution, but the bar for doing so is high. The President appoints the court, and being closer to the people, makes appointments in their interest, with the August and Distinguished men (and women) of the Senate charged with their confirmation. I do think this is quite elegant. The problem is, it only works when everyone has the interests of the nation and the people at heart rather than narrow partisan advantage... It's a bit like a beautiful, but unreliable car.

    The UK system is much simpler. Parliament declared themselves Supreme and that's pretty much the long and short of it. Less elegant, but less scope for messing about.
    Nice nuanced post. I've not seen your posts before, so belated welcome to the forum - I hope you'll contribute frequently.
    I like the "beautiful but unreliable car".

    That's rather the reverse of 99% of cars from the USA :smile: .
    You think American cars are reliable?

    I was under the impression Ford stood for Fix Or Repair Daily.
    Four out of the top ten on the 2021 VRS were US brands - Buick, Cadillac, Lincoln and Chevrolet.

    Lexus and Porsche continue in the top two spots.

    Jaguar, Land Rover, Alfa Romeo and Tesla are the worst by some distance.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,017
    DavidL said:

    Like The Met, Police Scotland needs nuking as well.

    Dozens of police officers in Scotland have been accused of sexual misconduct in the past four years but none has been dismissed, an investigation has found.

    Since 2017 the national force has had 166 officers and special constables accused of more than 245 separate sexual offences.

    Channel 4 Dispatches found that no one had been dismissed from Police Scotland over these allegations, claiming that some serving officers with proven cases of misconduct remained on active duty.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dozens-of-scottish-police-keep-jobs-despite-sex-claims-5x99g5pr8

    For god's sake that is just appalling.
    In general, in nearly every country I have been to, police culture is a bit... problematic.

    The French police, for example, have a racism problem that is startling. As do the Greek police. Golden Dawn says hi.

    The American police - {insert pages on racism, corruption, abuse of power)

    The Peruvian police are a street gang - and not especially good at it.

    etc etc...

    I think the only sensible system would be an independent Police Investigation organisation. This can't be recruited from the police, or even from the same recruitment intake. 100% independent. And even then you will get corruption in the Police Investigation organisation. So you have to plan for that.....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    Interesting on languages spoken by the Duke of Edinburgh on the previous thread; I would hope that his long experience would give him a strong understanding of what Brussels has become.

    On speaking languages, do we have any extended video of Boris speaking say French, Italian, German or Spanish?

    I've seen Johnson speaking French on French TV. He's not very good, I'd rate him CERF B1 at best, but he was having a go.

    US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is very good. I've heard him do long form panel interviews on French radio with aplomb.
    I am B 1 according to.my prof.. and thats assez bien d'être compris and not much more.
    I guess intermediate means you can keep a discussion going with vaguely relevant interventions. Been there, and seems about right for Johnson's level of French.

    Impressed by Blinken. Completely fluent.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,017
    edited October 11
    Nigelb said:

    Trump’s Republican party.

    This guy is running for the Republican nomination for Texas governor, and currently hospitalised with Covid…

    https://twitter.com/AllenWest/status/1447195963542679552
    I can attest that, after this experience, I am even more dedicated to fighting against vaccine mandates. Instead of enriching the pockets of Big Pharma and corrupt bureaucrats and politicians, we should be advocating the monoclonal antibody infusion therapy.

    And apparently unaware that ‘the Regeneron’ is $1250 per shot.

    I am quite, quite sure that his donors are aware. $1250 multiplied by a few 10s of millions would be nice for the share price......
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,017
    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    I don't think the last option is now possible - the attempt after Jan 6th failed and any financial issues seem to be removed enough that Trump won't be directly involved.
    I think one of the spreadsheet wankers on here worked out that his actuarial odds of karking it before 2024 are only something like 15%.

    MAGA,A!

    It's happening and we all better used to it.
    It would be a range of probabilities - depending on his prior health conditions.

    Given he has lied about his health (as with everything else).... There have been reports that he has had all kinds of conditions......

    So the range of possibilities is quite wide.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887
    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    Interesting on languages spoken by the Duke of Edinburgh on the previous thread; I would hope that his long experience would give him a strong understanding of what Brussels has become.

    On speaking languages, do we have any extended video of Boris speaking say French, Italian, German or Spanish?

    I have respect for the late Duke of Edinburgh as the archetypal Citizen of Nowhere, whose family were actual Nazis, and who as a teenager, and I think on his own initiative, followed his Jewish teacher from Germany to Scotland.
    What a romanticised view of him to say the least.
    A complex, and therefore interesting, character.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,742

    MattW said:

    Unpopular said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    I kind of agree. I think there is a great elegance to the US's system of checks and balances.
    Simplifying somewhat, there is the President, whose role is purely executive. They enforce federal law and administer the government. Then you have Congress to pass the laws and a supreme court which guards the constitution. Of course, if the legislature disagrees with the Supreme Court on Constitutionality of a law, they can ammended the Constitution, but the bar for doing so is high. The President appoints the court, and being closer to the people, makes appointments in their interest, with the August and Distinguished men (and women) of the Senate charged with their confirmation. I do think this is quite elegant. The problem is, it only works when everyone has the interests of the nation and the people at heart rather than narrow partisan advantage... It's a bit like a beautiful, but unreliable car.

    The UK system is much simpler. Parliament declared themselves Supreme and that's pretty much the long and short of it. Less elegant, but less scope for messing about.
    Nice nuanced post. I've not seen your posts before, so belated welcome to the forum - I hope you'll contribute frequently.
    I like the "beautiful but unreliable car".

    That's rather the reverse of 99% of cars from the USA :smile: .
    You think American cars are reliable?

    I was under the impression Ford stood for Fix Or Repair Daily.
    Depends on the date you choose.

    Perhaps "tough" is better than "reliable".

    Up until 1965?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,017
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump’s Republican party.

    This guy is running for the Republican nomination for Texas governor, and currently hospitalised with Covid…

    https://twitter.com/AllenWest/status/1447195963542679552
    I can attest that, after this experience, I am even more dedicated to fighting against vaccine mandates. Instead of enriching the pockets of Big Pharma and corrupt bureaucrats and politicians, we should be advocating the monoclonal antibody infusion therapy.

    And apparently unaware that ‘the Regeneron’ is $1250 per shot.

    But "As Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis criss-crosses the state opening monoclonal antibody treatment centers using Regeneron as a post-exposure prevention for COVID-19, he is also being criticized because one of his top donors is a Regeneron investor."
    Using Regeneron as post exposure prophylaxis rather than get vaccinated? Is that correct?

    America is insane.
    To be fair - about 45% of America is insane.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,406

    2020 was a pretty dismal choice - 333 million people in the US and the voters get offered Trump or Biden.

    To be offered that choice again in 2024 would be a damning indictment of democracy in the US. The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was "not Trump". There was nothing else to commend the guy at all, other than he knew where the coffee machine was in the White House. When 2024 is "not Biden....but....hell, him again???" how low can turnout go?

    I'm not sure about turnout. Trump vs Biden might still motivate a lot of people to turn out to vote against the guy they don't want to win.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,602
    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    The problem is that politicians find themselves squeezed: on the one hand they want to do what is right (and to avoid civil war), and on the other hand, their own supporters have been whipped into a frenzy with stories about the election was stolen.

    Some people have done the right thing. But too many have chosen to repeat what they know to be lies, because either they see short term political advantage in it, or because they are scared of the consequences of confronting it.

    America is broken.
    America isn't broken, America is a perfectly functional country full of smart and mostly friendly people. The problem is its constitution. If your constitution can't cope with normal human political things like power-hungry psychopaths and demented partisanship then it's the constitution that's broken.

  • eekeek Posts: 15,743

    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    The problem is that politicians find themselves squeezed: on the one hand they want to do what is right (and to avoid civil war), and on the other hand, their own supporters have been whipped into a frenzy with stories about the election was stolen.

    Some people have done the right thing. But too many have chosen to repeat what they know to be lies, because either they see short term political advantage in it, or because they are scared of the consequences of confronting it.

    America is broken.
    America isn't broken, America is a perfectly functional country full of smart and mostly friendly people. The problem is its constitution. If your constitution can't cope with normal human political things like power-hungry psychopaths and demented partisanship then it's the constitution that's broken.

    Back in the 18th and 19th centuries - power-hungry psychopaths weren't really something most people had to deal with.

    Demented Partisanship equally didn't exist as there was little means of building up a critical mass without a very broad viewpoint.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    DavidL said:

    Like The Met, Police Scotland needs nuking as well.

    Dozens of police officers in Scotland have been accused of sexual misconduct in the past four years but none has been dismissed, an investigation has found.

    Since 2017 the national force has had 166 officers and special constables accused of more than 245 separate sexual offences.

    Channel 4 Dispatches found that no one had been dismissed from Police Scotland over these allegations, claiming that some serving officers with proven cases of misconduct remained on active duty.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dozens-of-scottish-police-keep-jobs-despite-sex-claims-5x99g5pr8

    For god's sake that is just appalling.
    In general, in nearly every country I have been to, police culture is a bit... problematic.

    The French police, for example, have a racism problem that is startling. As do the Greek police. Golden Dawn says hi.

    The American police - {insert pages on racism, corruption, abuse of power)

    The Peruvian police are a street gang - and not especially good at it.

    etc etc...

    I think the only sensible system would be an independent Police Investigation organisation. This can't be recruited from the police, or even from the same recruitment intake. 100% independent. And even then you will get corruption in the Police Investigation organisation. So you have to plan for that.....
    The solution is to pay them more, because that's the answer to everything. 🤦‍♂️
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    Farooq said:

    DavidL said:

    Like The Met, Police Scotland needs nuking as well.

    Dozens of police officers in Scotland have been accused of sexual misconduct in the past four years but none has been dismissed, an investigation has found.

    Since 2017 the national force has had 166 officers and special constables accused of more than 245 separate sexual offences.

    Channel 4 Dispatches found that no one had been dismissed from Police Scotland over these allegations, claiming that some serving officers with proven cases of misconduct remained on active duty.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dozens-of-scottish-police-keep-jobs-despite-sex-claims-5x99g5pr8

    For god's sake that is just appalling.
    In general, in nearly every country I have been to, police culture is a bit... problematic.

    The French police, for example, have a racism problem that is startling. As do the Greek police. Golden Dawn says hi.

    The American police - {insert pages on racism, corruption, abuse of power)

    The Peruvian police are a street gang - and not especially good at it.

    etc etc...

    I think the only sensible system would be an independent Police Investigation organisation. This can't be recruited from the police, or even from the same recruitment intake. 100% independent. And even then you will get corruption in the Police Investigation organisation. So you have to plan for that.....
    The solution is to pay them more, because that's the answer to everything. 🤦‍♂️
    Nope, but the solution will require more cash.

    There needs to be more police officers so that the current incentive to ignore XYZ as otherwise we won't have enough officers to do the work we need done can be removed.

    Currently, I suspect, one reason why police officers are retained rather than removed is because it takes months to replace them and impacts the budget. If you want rid of troublesome officers you really do need remove the incentives / reasons that result in management prefering to retain rather than remove.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675

    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    The problem is that politicians find themselves squeezed: on the one hand they want to do what is right (and to avoid civil war), and on the other hand, their own supporters have been whipped into a frenzy with stories about the election was stolen.

    Some people have done the right thing. But too many have chosen to repeat what they know to be lies, because either they see short term political advantage in it, or because they are scared of the consequences of confronting it.

    America is broken.
    America isn't broken, America is a perfectly functional country full of smart and mostly friendly people. The problem is its constitution. If your constitution can't cope with normal human political things like power-hungry psychopaths and demented partisanship then it's the constitution that's broken.

    If we said that murder was now legal in the UK, there wouldn't be a (huge) spike in murders because it's not a law we obey because there's a law. And that probably applies for a number of things down the scale. But we know that quite a lot of people will cheat "the system" when it comes to things like train tickets.

    So, does the UK democracy work fairly well because we have independent people conducting elections? Or would we be fine with the American system? I'm inclined to think that you need a strong framework, otherwise someone will try to gain an advantage.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,602
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    The problem is that politicians find themselves squeezed: on the one hand they want to do what is right (and to avoid civil war), and on the other hand, their own supporters have been whipped into a frenzy with stories about the election was stolen.

    Some people have done the right thing. But too many have chosen to repeat what they know to be lies, because either they see short term political advantage in it, or because they are scared of the consequences of confronting it.

    America is broken.
    America isn't broken, America is a perfectly functional country full of smart and mostly friendly people. The problem is its constitution. If your constitution can't cope with normal human political things like power-hungry psychopaths and demented partisanship then it's the constitution that's broken.

    Back in the 18th and 19th centuries - power-hungry psychopaths weren't really something most people had to deal with.

    Demented Partisanship equally didn't exist as there was little means of building up a critical mass without a very broad viewpoint.
    Historically I don't think this checks out? Ie the founders designed the system with the intention that it wouldn't have partisanship, but this part of their design broke immediately.

    The subsequent problem is that Americans got kind of religious about their constitution so they won't fix what's obviously broken. They're like the British with the NHS.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,017
    Farooq said:

    DavidL said:

    Like The Met, Police Scotland needs nuking as well.

    Dozens of police officers in Scotland have been accused of sexual misconduct in the past four years but none has been dismissed, an investigation has found.

    Since 2017 the national force has had 166 officers and special constables accused of more than 245 separate sexual offences.

    Channel 4 Dispatches found that no one had been dismissed from Police Scotland over these allegations, claiming that some serving officers with proven cases of misconduct remained on active duty.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dozens-of-scottish-police-keep-jobs-despite-sex-claims-5x99g5pr8

    For god's sake that is just appalling.
    In general, in nearly every country I have been to, police culture is a bit... problematic.

    The French police, for example, have a racism problem that is startling. As do the Greek police. Golden Dawn says hi.

    The American police - {insert pages on racism, corruption, abuse of power)

    The Peruvian police are a street gang - and not especially good at it.

    etc etc...

    I think the only sensible system would be an independent Police Investigation organisation. This can't be recruited from the police, or even from the same recruitment intake. 100% independent. And even then you will get corruption in the Police Investigation organisation. So you have to plan for that.....
    The solution is to pay them more, because that's the answer to everything. 🤦‍♂️
    I witnessed an interesting approach in Peru.

    The local police were fucking up more than usual. So they sent a General of police out from Lima.

    There was a problem with police framing people they'd shot, to justify the shooting.

    So he sent a couple of them to Peruvian prison. Which is pretty much a death sentence for a police officer.

    Mind you, the strong rumour was that he fitted them up for that... but hey....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    Trump if he runs again will certainly be favourite for the GOP nomination.

    However whether he does or not I think the likeliest alternative will actually be Pence not DeSantis.
    De Santis trails Charlie Crist in early polls for next year's Florida governor election and so may not be re elected.
    Pence meanwhile will be able to count on a lot of the evangelical vote, is more conservative than Haley and Pompeo so still able to appeal to much of the base but also distant enough from Trump to win independents in open primaries
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,017
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    The problem is that politicians find themselves squeezed: on the one hand they want to do what is right (and to avoid civil war), and on the other hand, their own supporters have been whipped into a frenzy with stories about the election was stolen.

    Some people have done the right thing. But too many have chosen to repeat what they know to be lies, because either they see short term political advantage in it, or because they are scared of the consequences of confronting it.

    America is broken.
    America isn't broken, America is a perfectly functional country full of smart and mostly friendly people. The problem is its constitution. If your constitution can't cope with normal human political things like power-hungry psychopaths and demented partisanship then it's the constitution that's broken.

    Back in the 18th and 19th centuries - power-hungry psychopaths weren't really something most people had to deal with.

    Demented Partisanship equally didn't exist as there was little means of building up a critical mass without a very broad viewpoint.
    {Napoleon 1 & III have entered the chat}
    {Aaron Burr has entered the chat}
    {The entire pre 1860 planter class in the US has entered the chat}
    {......}
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,455
    This from David Speedie made me smile on a day when there is little to smile about.

    https://twitter.com/davidspeedie10/status/1447263474485235714?s=21
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    rcs1000 said:

    whoisz_ said:

    I hope nobody has forgotten about what occurred during January 6th 2021? MAGA storming the capital?
    You would think the Jan 6 the committee are going to proceed and allow Trump to pull another coupd'etat?
    The GOP are losing there base, midterm elections if and only if the GOP achieves impossible and win both Houses / Senate?
    Then there is a possibility, and Trump won't go anywhere near the White House if President Biden is still there. God forbid anything happens to him.

    My money is on GOP losing 2022 midterm, and losing the 2024 election, and Jan 6 the was pivotal moment in US history, and since of its creation and formation this evening is there crossing, Point of No Return.

    GOP taking both House and Senate is definitely not impossible. It's pretty simple: They only barely won them in 2020, the president's party nearly always loses ground in the mid-terms, and Biden is fairly unpopular right now.
    The Dems have to make 2022 a battle of of Sensible vs Trump. If they do that, they stand a chance.

    But I suspect that 2022 will be a repeat of 2018. The Dems will lose the House, but retain the Senate.
    I agree, the GOP only need to gain 5 seats to gain the House and GOP turnout will be higher than Democrat to protest against Biden-Harris. Biden's approval is also below 50% and President's with below 50% approval always lose House seats in midterms.

    The Republican seats up in the Senate though are more vulnerable than the Democrat ones
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    Gentle reminder that #Brexit is important, but still not no.1 priority for the EU. Those whose job it is to focus on Brexit will be following this week's developments closely - the rest will be focused on Poland, new leadership in Central Europe, coalition talks in Germany, etc.

    https://twitter.com/GeorginaEWright/status/1447473662735659013?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,017
    eek said:

    Farooq said:

    DavidL said:

    Like The Met, Police Scotland needs nuking as well.

    Dozens of police officers in Scotland have been accused of sexual misconduct in the past four years but none has been dismissed, an investigation has found.

    Since 2017 the national force has had 166 officers and special constables accused of more than 245 separate sexual offences.

    Channel 4 Dispatches found that no one had been dismissed from Police Scotland over these allegations, claiming that some serving officers with proven cases of misconduct remained on active duty.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dozens-of-scottish-police-keep-jobs-despite-sex-claims-5x99g5pr8

    For god's sake that is just appalling.
    In general, in nearly every country I have been to, police culture is a bit... problematic.

    The French police, for example, have a racism problem that is startling. As do the Greek police. Golden Dawn says hi.

    The American police - {insert pages on racism, corruption, abuse of power)

    The Peruvian police are a street gang - and not especially good at it.

    etc etc...

    I think the only sensible system would be an independent Police Investigation organisation. This can't be recruited from the police, or even from the same recruitment intake. 100% independent. And even then you will get corruption in the Police Investigation organisation. So you have to plan for that.....
    The solution is to pay them more, because that's the answer to everything. 🤦‍♂️
    Nope, but the solution will require more cash.

    There needs to be more police officers so that the current incentive to ignore XYZ as otherwise we won't have enough officers to do the work we need done can be removed.

    Currently, I suspect, one reason why police officers are retained rather than removed is because it takes months to replace them and impacts the budget. If you want rid of troublesome officers you really do need remove the incentives / reasons that result in management prefering to retain rather than remove.
    Setting up an independent police investigation organisation will take money - and time.

    The biggest problem would be the temptation to simply transfer existing police investigatory units wholesale to such an organisation, to get it done quickly
  • Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    Unpopular said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    I kind of agree. I think there is a great elegance to the US's system of checks and balances.
    Simplifying somewhat, there is the President, whose role is purely executive. They enforce federal law and administer the government. Then you have Congress to pass the laws and a supreme court which guards the constitution. Of course, if the legislature disagrees with the Supreme Court on Constitutionality of a law, they can ammended the Constitution, but the bar for doing so is high. The President appoints the court, and being closer to the people, makes appointments in their interest, with the August and Distinguished men (and women) of the Senate charged with their confirmation. I do think this is quite elegant. The problem is, it only works when everyone has the interests of the nation and the people at heart rather than narrow partisan advantage... It's a bit like a beautiful, but unreliable car.

    The UK system is much simpler. Parliament declared themselves Supreme and that's pretty much the long and short of it. Less elegant, but less scope for messing about.
    Nice nuanced post. I've not seen your posts before, so belated welcome to the forum - I hope you'll contribute frequently.
    I like the "beautiful but unreliable car".

    That's rather the reverse of 99% of cars from the USA :smile: .
    You think American cars are reliable?

    I was under the impression Ford stood for Fix Or Repair Daily.
    Four out of the top ten on the 2021 VRS were US brands - Buick, Cadillac, Lincoln and Chevrolet.

    Lexus and Porsche continue in the top two spots.

    Jaguar, Land Rover, Alfa Romeo and Tesla are the worst by some distance.
    There was a nearly new, broken-down Range Rover causing traffic holdups on our road on Saturday afternoon. It must have been pretty serious since it was in the process of being hauled onto a breakdown truck.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,578
    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    Interesting on languages spoken by the Duke of Edinburgh on the previous thread; I would hope that his long experience would give him a strong understanding of what Brussels has become.

    On speaking languages, do we have any extended video of Boris speaking say French, Italian, German or Spanish?

    I have respect for the late Duke of Edinburgh as the archetypal Citizen of Nowhere, whose family were actual Nazis, and who as a teenager, and I think on his own initiative, followed his Jewish teacher from Germany to Scotland.
    Did the Jewish teacher get away, or was he successfully hunted by the Duke?
    Cracking story in The Week a month or so ago - a twat in the US wanted to propose to his gf with one of those banner towed from a plane things. Her name was Judith but usually abbreviated. So he had a plane flying round saying JEW, I HAVE A QUESTION FOR YOU, and was surprised when this caused unrest.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,193

    Gentle reminder that #Brexit is important, but still not no.1 priority for the EU. Those whose job it is to focus on Brexit will be following this week's developments closely - the rest will be focused on Poland, new leadership in Central Europe, coalition talks in Germany, etc.

    https://twitter.com/GeorginaEWright/status/1447473662735659013?s=20

    Which is yet another reason to add to the list shared here by @mij_europe the other day (which was basically parotting what I've written here for the past four years) as to why the UK 'holds all the cards' in these forthcoming negotiations.

    The UK government cares passionately about what is going on and speak with a single voice. The EU's 27 governments do not.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    An antibody treatment developed by pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca has shown its ability to both prevent and treat Covid-19, according to new data. AstraZeneca submitted a request to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) last week for emergency use authorisation for AZD7442, which is made up of two antibodies, as a preventative treatment.

    In new data released on Monday morning from its Tackle trial, AstraZeneca showed AZD7442 was effective in preventing severe disease in non-hospitalised patients with mild to moderate coronavirus, when compared with a placebo.

    Most of the 903 people in the trial were at high risk of progression to severe Covid-19, including those with multiple health conditions. The study found that a single dose of 600mg of AZD7442 given by injection into muscle managed to reduce the risk of developing severe Covid-19 or death from any cause by 50%, when compared with a placebo, in people who had been symptomatic for seven days or less.


    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-10-11/new-antibody-treatment-both-prevents-and-treats-covid-19
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,510

    Gentle reminder that #Brexit is important, but still not no.1 priority for the EU. Those whose job it is to focus on Brexit will be following this week's developments closely - the rest will be focused on Poland, new leadership in Central Europe, coalition talks in Germany, etc.

    https://twitter.com/GeorginaEWright/status/1447473662735659013?s=20

    Which is yet another reason to add to the list shared here by @mij_europe the other day (which was basically parotting what I've written here for the past four years) as to why the UK 'holds all the cards' in these forthcoming negotiations.

    The UK government cares passionately about what is going on and speak with a single voice. The EU's 27 governments do not.
    That thread suggested that the EU had gone so far and no further, and that any rejection from Frost will lead to a trade war.

    I agree with the general point though, that the U.K. “holds most of the cards” on NI.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    Unpopular said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    I kind of agree. I think there is a great elegance to the US's system of checks and balances.
    Simplifying somewhat, there is the President, whose role is purely executive. They enforce federal law and administer the government. Then you have Congress to pass the laws and a supreme court which guards the constitution. Of course, if the legislature disagrees with the Supreme Court on Constitutionality of a law, they can ammended the Constitution, but the bar for doing so is high. The President appoints the court, and being closer to the people, makes appointments in their interest, with the August and Distinguished men (and women) of the Senate charged with their confirmation. I do think this is quite elegant. The problem is, it only works when everyone has the interests of the nation and the people at heart rather than narrow partisan advantage... It's a bit like a beautiful, but unreliable car.

    The UK system is much simpler. Parliament declared themselves Supreme and that's pretty much the long and short of it. Less elegant, but less scope for messing about.
    Nice nuanced post. I've not seen your posts before, so belated welcome to the forum - I hope you'll contribute frequently.
    I like the "beautiful but unreliable car".

    That's rather the reverse of 99% of cars from the USA :smile: .
    You think American cars are reliable?

    I was under the impression Ford stood for Fix Or Repair Daily.
    Four out of the top ten on the 2021 VRS were US brands - Buick, Cadillac, Lincoln and Chevrolet.

    Lexus and Porsche continue in the top two spots.

    Jaguar, Land Rover, Alfa Romeo and Tesla are the worst by some distance.
    There was a nearly new, broken-down Range Rover causing traffic holdups on our road on Saturday afternoon. It must have been pretty serious since it was in the process of being hauled onto a breakdown truck.
    And a top of the range is aporoaching 100k .....insane for such a car
  • TimSTimS Posts: 492

    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    Unless he dies, is incapacitated or constitutionally banned from running, Trump will be the nominee.

    The difficulty is that Biden looks rather senile when I have watched him.The left need a competent candidate to replace Biden. Is America stupid enough to elect Trump again?
    See the last thread, the point is that they don't have to. The US constitution doesn't specify that the voters elect the president. The states choose electors, and if there's a dispute the House chooses between competing slates. So if your party controls the House and key positions in swing states, and you control your party, it doesn't matter what the voters do in 2024.
    Thats outrageous
    This is true, but also, the constitution of the United States of America is hot garbage.
    The problem is that politicians find themselves squeezed: on the one hand they want to do what is right (and to avoid civil war), and on the other hand, their own supporters have been whipped into a frenzy with stories about the election was stolen.

    Some people have done the right thing. But too many have chosen to repeat what they know to be lies, because either they see short term political advantage in it, or because they are scared of the consequences of confronting it.

    America is broken.
    America isn't broken, America is a perfectly functional country full of smart and mostly friendly people. The problem is its constitution. If your constitution can't cope with normal human political things like power-hungry psychopaths and demented partisanship then it's the constitution that's broken.

    This is a recurring feature of a lot of countries with dysfunctional or downright dodgy government. The people you meet, from the person in the street up to senior officials and industrialists, are more often than not very reasonable, friendly people who have no illusions about the problems of their politics or the limitations of their politicians.

    The contrast between the average one-to-one or social chat with individuals in Russia or China or one of the US Southern red states and the rhetoric that comes out of their leaders is huge. Even here in Europe there's a huge gap between the day to day relationships we have in business with our colleagues and clients on the continent and the playground stuff going on between the likes of Frost and VdL, or Macron and Johnson.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,193

    Gentle reminder that #Brexit is important, but still not no.1 priority for the EU. Those whose job it is to focus on Brexit will be following this week's developments closely - the rest will be focused on Poland, new leadership in Central Europe, coalition talks in Germany, etc.

    https://twitter.com/GeorginaEWright/status/1447473662735659013?s=20

    Which is yet another reason to add to the list shared here by @mij_europe the other day (which was basically parotting what I've written here for the past four years) as to why the UK 'holds all the cards' in these forthcoming negotiations.

    The UK government cares passionately about what is going on and speak with a single voice. The EU's 27 governments do not.
    That thread suggested that the EU had gone so far and no further, and that any rejection from Frost will lead to a trade war.

    I agree with the general point though, that the U.K. “holds most of the cards” on NI.
    Well indeed, as Max and I (and I think a couple of others said) the final couple of Tweets in the thread were rather hopecasting since Mij doesn't want to accept that the EU will go further. We'll see.

    But yes, the UK is in control more than the EU is of what happens next.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 492

    An antibody treatment developed by pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca has shown its ability to both prevent and treat Covid-19, according to new data. AstraZeneca submitted a request to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) last week for emergency use authorisation for AZD7442, which is made up of two antibodies, as a preventative treatment.

    In new data released on Monday morning from its Tackle trial, AstraZeneca showed AZD7442 was effective in preventing severe disease in non-hospitalised patients with mild to moderate coronavirus, when compared with a placebo.

    Most of the 903 people in the trial were at high risk of progression to severe Covid-19, including those with multiple health conditions. The study found that a single dose of 600mg of AZD7442 given by injection into muscle managed to reduce the risk of developing severe Covid-19 or death from any cause by 50%, when compared with a placebo, in people who had been symptomatic for seven days or less.


    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-10-11/new-antibody-treatment-both-prevents-and-treats-covid-19

    Isn't antibody treatment in immunocompromised patients a classic trigger for mutations and new variants? Or is this different from the effect you get from convalescent plasma?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437

    Gentle reminder that #Brexit is important, but still not no.1 priority for the EU. Those whose job it is to focus on Brexit will be following this week's developments closely - the rest will be focused on Poland, new leadership in Central Europe, coalition talks in Germany, etc.

    https://twitter.com/GeorginaEWright/status/1447473662735659013?s=20

    Which is yet another reason to add to the list shared here by @mij_europe the other day (which was basically parotting what I've written here for the past four years) as to why the UK 'holds all the cards' in these forthcoming negotiations.

    The UK government cares passionately about what is going on and speak with a single voice. The EU's 27 governments do not.
    Not being your no 1 priority does not mean you do not speak with a single voice. They are different things. I hope to god that our Govt is not spending 100% of its time on Brexit just like the EU won't be. That is not to say it is also not important to both the UK and the EU.

    Those two phrases do not mean the same thing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,017
    TimS said:

    An antibody treatment developed by pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca has shown its ability to both prevent and treat Covid-19, according to new data. AstraZeneca submitted a request to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) last week for emergency use authorisation for AZD7442, which is made up of two antibodies, as a preventative treatment.

    In new data released on Monday morning from its Tackle trial, AstraZeneca showed AZD7442 was effective in preventing severe disease in non-hospitalised patients with mild to moderate coronavirus, when compared with a placebo.

    Most of the 903 people in the trial were at high risk of progression to severe Covid-19, including those with multiple health conditions. The study found that a single dose of 600mg of AZD7442 given by injection into muscle managed to reduce the risk of developing severe Covid-19 or death from any cause by 50%, when compared with a placebo, in people who had been symptomatic for seven days or less.


    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-10-11/new-antibody-treatment-both-prevents-and-treats-covid-19

    Isn't antibody treatment in immunocompromised patients a classic trigger for mutations and new variants? Or is this different from the effect you get from convalescent plasma?
    Wasn't there a trial of using antibodies that got stopped because it was making things worse??
  • TimSTimS Posts: 492

    Gentle reminder that #Brexit is important, but still not no.1 priority for the EU. Those whose job it is to focus on Brexit will be following this week's developments closely - the rest will be focused on Poland, new leadership in Central Europe, coalition talks in Germany, etc.

    https://twitter.com/GeorginaEWright/status/1447473662735659013?s=20

    Which is yet another reason to add to the list shared here by @mij_europe the other day (which was basically parotting what I've written here for the past four years) as to why the UK 'holds all the cards' in these forthcoming negotiations.

    The UK government cares passionately about what is going on and speak with a single voice. The EU's 27 governments do not.
    That thread suggested that the EU had gone so far and no further, and that any rejection from Frost will lead to a trade war.

    I agree with the general point though, that the U.K. “holds most of the cards” on NI.
    The trouble is the government is falling into the same tactical fallacy that Putin repeatedly blunders into. The pursuit of short term tactical victory with no thought to long term strategic weakening. It's what happens when negotiations are viewed as zero-sum games. See Nordstream 2 for a current example. Every weakening of goodwill over Brexit incurs a debt to the future.
This discussion has been closed.