Options
The rise and rise of Trump in the WH2024 nomination betting – politicalbetting.com
The rise and rise of Trump in the WH2024 nomination betting – politicalbetting.com
Following on from the previous post by TSE the above chart shows the latest betting for the Republican nomination at the 2024 White House election.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
You would think the Jan 6 the committee are going to proceed and allow Trump to pull another coupd'etat?
The GOP are losing there base, midterm elections if and only if the GOP achieves impossible and win both Houses / Senate?
Then there is a possibility, and Trump won't go anywhere near the White House if President Biden is still there. God forbid anything happens to him.
My money is on GOP losing 2022 midterm, and losing the 2024 election, and Jan 6 the was pivotal moment in US history, and since of its creation and formation this evening is there crossing, Point of No Return.
Some people have done the right thing. But too many have chosen to repeat what they know to be lies, because either they see short term political advantage in it, or because they are scared of the consequences of confronting it.
America is broken.
But I suspect that 2022 will be a repeat of 2018. The Dems will lose the House, but retain the Senate.
This guy is running for the Republican nomination for Texas governor, and currently hospitalised with Covid…
https://twitter.com/AllenWest/status/1447195963542679552
I can attest that, after this experience, I am even more dedicated to fighting against vaccine mandates. Instead of enriching the pockets of Big Pharma and corrupt bureaucrats and politicians, we should be advocating the monoclonal antibody infusion therapy.
And apparently unaware that ‘the Regeneron’ is $1250 per shot.
To be offered that choice again in 2024 would be a damning indictment of democracy in the US. The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was "not Trump". There was nothing else to commend the guy at all, other than he knew where the coffee machine was in the White House. When 2024 is "not Biden....but....hell, him again???" how low can turnout go?
Mind you, probably better than the dewormer that @rural_voter was recommending.
My hope is that Trump gets whipped in 2024. But it doesn't matter if it's 2:1, he will continue to claim he won in a landslide, poisoning US democracy.
Interesting on languages spoken by the Duke of Edinburgh on the previous thread; I would hope that his long experience would give him a strong understanding of what Brussels has become.
On speaking languages, do we have any extended video of Boris speaking say French, Italian, German or Spanish?
Can’t the two parties come up with one sensible candidate between them? For all we used to go on about Obama and GW Bush, they look like titans compared to today’s politicians on both sides of the aisle.
The parties going with Trump v Biden again, but aged 78 and 82 this time, would be a terrible exercise in democracy.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=cYsBDniEeWo
He did switch to English when more serious subjects were raised, obviously didn’t want to mis-speak and cause a diplomatic incident.
It poses the question why the UK would enter long term defensive alliances with such an unstable country.
The state that invests a huge amount of time and money, to get the publicity of being the first primary, and then can’t organise the proverbial party in a brewery on the night.
Otherwise sensible people have come up with all sorts of crap over the past 18 months, to justify their own decisions to take particular medication, or not to get vaccinated. Looking at you, Joe Rogan.
Dozens of police officers in Scotland have been accused of sexual misconduct in the past four years but none has been dismissed, an investigation has found.
Since 2017 the national force has had 166 officers and special constables accused of more than 245 separate sexual offences.
Channel 4 Dispatches found that no one had been dismissed from Police Scotland over these allegations, claiming that some serving officers with proven cases of misconduct remained on active duty.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dozens-of-scottish-police-keep-jobs-despite-sex-claims-5x99g5pr8
America is insane.
But it was designed for a different era. And as Trump (and Blair before him to a lesser degree) showed the damage you can do if you don’t care about precedent and norms
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is very good. I've heard him do long form panel interviews on French radio with aplomb.
Unlike other GOP states Florida doesn't currently have a massively gerrymandered map because the Florida Supreme court struck down the last GOP attempt at doing so. Since then the Florida SC has swung very rightwards and there's loads of scope for the GOP to knock out a bunch of Dem seats.
I haven't worked out where I think the Dem par line should be but 3% is going to be way under at the moment I think,
The Covid Vaccines have only been given an Emergency Use Authorisation by the FDA thus they are deeply experimental and dangerous and shouldn't be used as you can't trust Big Pharm and the vaccines were developed from foetal tissues so are immoral. It is far better to use Regeneron, a treatment that has been given *Checks Notes* Emergency Use Authorisation only and was developed from foetal tissues etc.
An extreme example of irrational partisanship.
Simplifying somewhat, there is the President, whose role is purely executive. They enforce federal law and administer the government. Then you have Congress to pass the laws and a supreme court which guards the constitution. Of course, if the legislature disagrees with the Supreme Court on Constitutionality of a law, they can ammended the Constitution, but the bar for doing so is high. The President appoints the court, and being closer to the people, makes appointments in their interest, with the August and Distinguished men (and women) of the Senate charged with their confirmation. I do think this is quite elegant. The problem is, it only works when everyone has the interests of the nation and the people at heart rather than narrow partisan advantage... It's a bit like a beautiful, but unreliable car.
The UK system is much simpler. Parliament declared themselves Supreme and that's pretty much the long and short of it. Less elegant, but less scope for messing about.
MAGA,A!
It's happening and we all better used to it.
Some of the electoral rules, as with Charles' 'dispute resolution mechanism' (which isn't anything of the sort), are centuries old.
Maybe one of the sons will find a way to put Donald out of the race?
The other issue with tackling things from an overly legalistic viewpoint is you lose sight of "should we do this" and it simply becomes "can we do this".
If the rules say you can overturn democratic results then why not act like Tom Cotton, the Secretary of State candidates mentioned, Dominic Grieve in the UK etc trying to upend and overturn democratic results?
Once you lose sight of why we had the vote in the first place and put victory at all costs and the rules at the centre of your viewpoint then you descend into very dangerous territory.
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/10/08/texas-congressional-map-redistricting/
That's rather the reverse of 99% of cars from the USA
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
I was under the impression Ford stood for Fix Or Repair Daily.
The Slaughter House cases decision was one of the handful of most perverse decisions the Supreme Court has ever handed down.
LBJ had a serious issue with the mess in vietnam that meant there would be a competition because many Dems were very unhappy. I can't see there being an issue of that scale in 2024.
They’re getting quite a lot better now, as the bankruptcies of 2009 have allowed them to invest in better factories, although the chip shortage has hit them quite hard and there’s long delays on many models at the moment.
New Chevrolet Corvette is a very lovely car. It’s not quite a McLaren, but it’s 80% of one for half the price.
Biden was the safe choice - a very long history of bi-partisan coalition building. The guy who pulled things together in the Democratic party. These are very useful political skills. His biggest problem is a razor thing margin in the Senate and a Republican party in the Senate determined to frustrate every attempt to do things.
Lexus and Porsche continue in the top two spots.
Jaguar, Land Rover, Alfa Romeo and Tesla are the worst by some distance.
The French police, for example, have a racism problem that is startling. As do the Greek police. Golden Dawn says hi.
The American police - {insert pages on racism, corruption, abuse of power)
The Peruvian police are a street gang - and not especially good at it.
etc etc...
I think the only sensible system would be an independent Police Investigation organisation. This can't be recruited from the police, or even from the same recruitment intake. 100% independent. And even then you will get corruption in the Police Investigation organisation. So you have to plan for that.....
Impressed by Blinken. Completely fluent.
Given he has lied about his health (as with everything else).... There have been reports that he has had all kinds of conditions......
So the range of possibilities is quite wide.
Perhaps "tough" is better than "reliable".
Up until 1965?
Demented Partisanship equally didn't exist as there was little means of building up a critical mass without a very broad viewpoint.
There needs to be more police officers so that the current incentive to ignore XYZ as otherwise we won't have enough officers to do the work we need done can be removed.
Currently, I suspect, one reason why police officers are retained rather than removed is because it takes months to replace them and impacts the budget. If you want rid of troublesome officers you really do need remove the incentives / reasons that result in management prefering to retain rather than remove.
So, does the UK democracy work fairly well because we have independent people conducting elections? Or would we be fine with the American system? I'm inclined to think that you need a strong framework, otherwise someone will try to gain an advantage.
The subsequent problem is that Americans got kind of religious about their constitution so they won't fix what's obviously broken. They're like the British with the NHS.
The local police were fucking up more than usual. So they sent a General of police out from Lima.
There was a problem with police framing people they'd shot, to justify the shooting.
So he sent a couple of them to Peruvian prison. Which is pretty much a death sentence for a police officer.
Mind you, the strong rumour was that he fitted them up for that... but hey....
However whether he does or not I think the likeliest alternative will actually be Pence not DeSantis.
De Santis trails Charlie Crist in early polls for next year's Florida governor election and so may not be re elected.
Pence meanwhile will be able to count on a lot of the evangelical vote, is more conservative than Haley and Pompeo so still able to appeal to much of the base but also distant enough from Trump to win independents in open primaries
{Aaron Burr has entered the chat}
{The entire pre 1860 planter class in the US has entered the chat}
{......}
https://twitter.com/davidspeedie10/status/1447263474485235714?s=21
The Republican seats up in the Senate though are more vulnerable than the Democrat ones
https://twitter.com/GeorginaEWright/status/1447473662735659013?s=20
The biggest problem would be the temptation to simply transfer existing police investigatory units wholesale to such an organisation, to get it done quickly
The UK government cares passionately about what is going on and speak with a single voice. The EU's 27 governments do not.
In new data released on Monday morning from its Tackle trial, AstraZeneca showed AZD7442 was effective in preventing severe disease in non-hospitalised patients with mild to moderate coronavirus, when compared with a placebo.
Most of the 903 people in the trial were at high risk of progression to severe Covid-19, including those with multiple health conditions. The study found that a single dose of 600mg of AZD7442 given by injection into muscle managed to reduce the risk of developing severe Covid-19 or death from any cause by 50%, when compared with a placebo, in people who had been symptomatic for seven days or less.
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-10-11/new-antibody-treatment-both-prevents-and-treats-covid-19
I agree with the general point though, that the U.K. “holds most of the cards” on NI.
The contrast between the average one-to-one or social chat with individuals in Russia or China or one of the US Southern red states and the rhetoric that comes out of their leaders is huge. Even here in Europe there's a huge gap between the day to day relationships we have in business with our colleagues and clients on the continent and the playground stuff going on between the likes of Frost and VdL, or Macron and Johnson.
But yes, the UK is in control more than the EU is of what happens next.
Those two phrases do not mean the same thing.