Could Bojo be tempted to cash in on current polling by going early? – politicalbetting.com

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

No thread on James Brokenshire, RIP?

I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?

Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.

Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.

Yes, exactly the same thing struck me.
I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?

I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.

The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.

I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.

"As close to a certainty as there can be"

So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?

If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you

Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?

@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.

Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies.
No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.

Ummm.

I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.

Are you SeanT?

I thought we were all Spartacus SeanT?

I am SeanT!

There can be only one...

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

kinabalu said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

I don't know why we bother getting dressed in the morning, Max. Because soon as you start gazing at us we may as well be naked.

isam said:

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

Trafford have reintroduced a requirement for parents to wear facemasks when dropping kids off and picking them up, and for kids in senior schools.
How fucking depressing.
I'm not scared of this virus. But I am scared of how our public sector reacts to it.

Something must be done
This is something
Therefore we must do this

“Don’t just do something, sit there!”

Was that Reagan? One of my faves anyway

Malmesbury said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

Mate I always thought that best Brexit would mean everything would get a bit more expensive and tricky to do but nothing too dramatic and most people wouldn't notice. A bit like 2p on beer and fags.

Now, we may be in the fast lane towards the sunlit uplands but as it stands with the pigs, the fuel shortages, gas prices, likely general inflation, Northern Ireland, UC withdrawal, the near collapse of public trust in the police, I would by no stretch of the imagination say that right this minute the UK is prospering.

The police are doing exactly what they have always done - just a bit more publicly. In fact, it could argued that they have got better -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Midlands_Serious_Crime_Squad

Not sure how that relates to BREXIT, though.

Malmesbury said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

Mate I always thought that best Brexit would mean everything would get a bit more expensive and tricky to do but nothing too dramatic and most people wouldn't notice. A bit like 2p on beer and fags.

Now, we may be in the fast lane towards the sunlit uplands but as it stands with the pigs, the fuel shortages, gas prices, likely general inflation, Northern Ireland, UC withdrawal, the near collapse of public trust in the police, I would by no stretch of the imagination say that right this minute the UK is prospering.

The police are doing exactly what they have always done - just a bit more publicly. In fact, it could argued that they have got better -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Midlands_Serious_Crime_Squad

Not sure how that relates to BREXIT, though.

kle4 said:

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

No thread on James Brokenshire, RIP?

I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?

Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.

Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.

Yes, exactly the same thing struck me.
I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?

I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.

The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.

I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.

"As close to a certainty as there can be"

So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?

If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you

Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?

@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.

Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies.
No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.

Ummm.

I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.

Are you SeanT?

I thought we were all Spartacus SeanT?

I am SeanT!

There can be only one...

Being SeanT is a state of mind. 'You feeling a bit SeanT right now?', that kind of thing.

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

No thread on James Brokenshire, RIP?

I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?

Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.

Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.

Yes, exactly the same thing struck me.
I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?

I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.

The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.

I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.

"As close to a certainty as there can be"

So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?

If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you

Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?

@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.

Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies.
No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.

Ummm.

I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.

I don't know you from adam, and your identity isn't the point

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

Mate I always thought that best Brexit would mean everything would get a bit more expensive and tricky to do but nothing too dramatic and most people wouldn't notice. A bit like 2p on beer and fags.

Now, we may be in the fast lane towards the sunlit uplands but as it stands with the pigs, the fuel shortages, gas prices, likely general inflation, Northern Ireland, UC withdrawal, the near collapse of public trust in the police, I would by no stretch of the imagination say that right this minute the UK is prospering.

kle4 said:

tlg86 said:

I see Croydon had a referendum yesterday:

https://www.croydon.gov.uk/council-and-elections/voting-and-elections/governance-referendum-7-october-2021#

Exciting. I'd have gone for status quo, I'm not very keen on mayors.

MaxPB said:

The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour.
...

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

Insulate Britain protests:

The safety of people travelling on the Capital’s roads is our number one priority.

We have been granted an injunction this afternoon by the High Court which bans protestors from engaging in activities that obstruct traffic at 14 locations.

https://twitter.com/TfL/status/1446539248782479380?s=20

There are only 14 locations in the London road network?

Roger said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day

Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive

You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.

Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/oct/08/marcus-rashford-attacks-universal-credit-cut-at-degree-ceremony

isam said:

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

Trafford have reintroduced a requirement for parents to wear facemasks when dropping kids off and picking them up, and for kids in senior schools.
How fucking depressing.
I'm not scared of this virus. But I am scared of how our public sector reacts to it.

Something must be done
This is something
Therefore we must do this

“Don’t just do something, sit there!”

Was that Reagan? One of my faves anyway

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

No thread on James Brokenshire, RIP?

I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?

Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.

Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.

Yes, exactly the same thing struck me.
I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?

I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.

The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.

I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.

"As close to a certainty as there can be"

So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?

If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you

Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?

@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.

Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies.
No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.

Ummm.

I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.

Are you SeanT?

I thought we were all Spartacus SeanT?

I am SeanT!

There can be only one...

It's a kind of magic....

williamglenn said:

Roger said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day

Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive

You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.

Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/oct/08/marcus-rashford-attacks-universal-credit-cut-at-degree-ceremony

Their elite clearly does talk about “the Anglo-Saxons” all the time, so do you just disassociate yourself from that term and imagine that they only mean the Americans and not us?

Gardenwalker said:

williamglenn said:

Roger said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day

Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive

You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.

Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/oct/08/marcus-rashford-attacks-universal-credit-cut-at-degree-ceremony

Their elite clearly does talk about “the Anglo-Saxons” all the time, so do you just disassociate yourself from that term and imagine that they only mean the Americans and not us?

It’s time we came up with a term to describe the patronising guff that emanates from some posters.

Brexsplaining?

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour.
...

Hmm.

The promise:

When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.

The reality:

Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”

He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.

“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_food.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/02/brexit-uk-food-drink-exports-eu-disastrous-decline

As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.

Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.

I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.

It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour.
...

Hmm.

The promise:

When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.

The reality:

Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”

He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.

“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_food.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/02/brexit-uk-food-drink-exports-eu-disastrous-decline

As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.

Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.

dixiedean said:

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour.
...

Hmm.

The promise:

When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.

The reality:

Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”

He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.

“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_food.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/02/brexit-uk-food-drink-exports-eu-disastrous-decline

As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.

Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.

I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.

It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.

Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's?
To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up?
You do see the issue here?

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Omnium said:

Re header and @MikeSmithson. Endless header posts will not assuage your conscience. The Tories are currently the best placed to be in government. The other parties are simply hopeless, and that's especially the LDs.

Beyond the Tory party the next best placed person to be PM in my opinion is Farage. Fertile ground for the Greens, but WTF are the usual parties of opposition doing!?

I would just comment that there is agreement that we face an extraordinary cost of living crisis with worldwide energy prices rocketing, shortages across the planet with container ships held at anchor in many places, indeed 14 were held at anchor of Anglesey last week due to adverse weather conditions for docking in Liverpool

HMG is facing the bleakest outlook I can remember, not least as covid continues and the economic shocks are extreme.

Taxes are rising and it is fair enough to complain about the loss of the £20 UC uplift but that would add £6billion or 1% on income tax year year on year and Starmer has still not said how he would cover the deficit other than muttering 'tory donors'.

I would be very surprised to see the conservatives retain their poll lead but does anyone know how labour would fund their 170 billion of spending and address the present energy and shortages issues

HMG is having to make extraordinarily unpopular decisions, but in truth governments across Europe and elsewhere are facing the same tsunami of a crisis

We must also remember that on top of this, COP26 is going to involve very expensive commitments (Insulate Britain said they want a trillion to insulate UK homes) and sooner or later the costs are going to collide with policy makers and why has nobody had the courage to say we have to transition to carbon neutral in a manner that does not create massive poverty and societal disruption and if that includes in the UK case giving the go ahead to the Shetland oil fields then so be it

True, but just about all of the wounds you list are self-inflicted. Energy shortages, but shale gas just left in the ground. Public finances in crisis, but lots of hugely wasteful spending. House prices too high, but absurd planning laws. COP26 commitments because of green crap.

It's the consequence of the soft socialism and politically correct pandering we've subjected the economy to over the last 20 years.

(I could have added lockdown, which was designed to inflict maximum economic damage).

Shale gas has been left in the ground (globally), because we had a pandemic and prices crashed.

Remember that the production profile of a shale gas well is very different to that of a traditional oil or gas project. With shale, if you stop drilling, production drops very rapidly.

What we've seen is that demand fell during the pandemic, drilling stopped, and shale gas production dropped sharply. Rig counts are now rising (although they still need to increase further), and production will rapidly follow.

There are still essentially no spot exports of LNG from the US, but that will change in the next few months. By April/May next year, US natural gas production should have increased more than 10 billion cubic feet a day, and be hitting new highs. (For reference, UK natural gas demand is only 7 billion feet/day)

MaxPB said:

dixiedean said:

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour.
...

Hmm.

The promise:

When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.

The reality:

Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”

He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.

“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_food.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/02/brexit-uk-food-drink-exports-eu-disastrous-decline

As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.

Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.

I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.

It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.

Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's?
To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up?
You do see the issue here?

Shut down entire industries that have no voters. The whole labour force is imported from end to end, the whining is only ever going to be from agribusiness.

Fishing said:

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Omnium said:

Re header and @MikeSmithson. Endless header posts will not assuage your conscience. The Tories are currently the best placed to be in government. The other parties are simply hopeless, and that's especially the LDs.

Beyond the Tory party the next best placed person to be PM in my opinion is Farage. Fertile ground for the Greens, but WTF are the usual parties of opposition doing!?

I would just comment that there is agreement that we face an extraordinary cost of living crisis with worldwide energy prices rocketing, shortages across the planet with container ships held at anchor in many places, indeed 14 were held at anchor of Anglesey last week due to adverse weather conditions for docking in Liverpool

HMG is facing the bleakest outlook I can remember, not least as covid continues and the economic shocks are extreme.

Taxes are rising and it is fair enough to complain about the loss of the £20 UC uplift but that would add £6billion or 1% on income tax year year on year and Starmer has still not said how he would cover the deficit other than muttering 'tory donors'.

I would be very surprised to see the conservatives retain their poll lead but does anyone know how labour would fund their 170 billion of spending and address the present energy and shortages issues

HMG is having to make extraordinarily unpopular decisions, but in truth governments across Europe and elsewhere are facing the same tsunami of a crisis

We must also remember that on top of this, COP26 is going to involve very expensive commitments (Insulate Britain said they want a trillion to insulate UK homes) and sooner or later the costs are going to collide with policy makers and why has nobody had the courage to say we have to transition to carbon neutral in a manner that does not create massive poverty and societal disruption and if that includes in the UK case giving the go ahead to the Shetland oil fields then so be it

True, but just about all of the wounds you list are self-inflicted. Energy shortages, but shale gas just left in the ground. Public finances in crisis, but lots of hugely wasteful spending. House prices too high, but absurd planning laws. COP26 commitments because of green crap.

It's the consequence of the soft socialism and politically correct pandering we've subjected the economy to over the last 20 years.

(I could have added lockdown, which was designed to inflict maximum economic damage).

Shale gas has been left in the ground (globally), because we had a pandemic and prices crashed.

Remember that the production profile of a shale gas well is very different to that of a traditional oil or gas project. With shale, if you stop drilling, production drops very rapidly.

What we've seen is that demand fell during the pandemic, drilling stopped, and shale gas production dropped sharply. Rig counts are now rising (although they still need to increase further), and production will rapidly follow.

There are still essentially no spot exports of LNG from the US, but that will change in the next few months. By April/May next year, US natural gas production should have increased more than 10 billion cubic feet a day, and be hitting new highs. (For reference, UK natural gas demand is only 7 billion feet/day)

Shale gas was left in the ground in the UK because the government messed around for years about issuing then suspending licences, and had absurdly and unrealistically tight seismic requirements. That's one important reason why our wholesale gas prices are several times America's, and we're desperately dependent on Russia.

Yet another example of the government shooting the country in the foot.

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

No thread on James Brokenshire, RIP?

I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?

Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.

Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.

Yes, exactly the same thing struck me.
I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?

I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.

The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.

I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.

"As close to a certainty as there can be"

So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?

If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you

Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?

@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.

Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies.
No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.

Ummm.

I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.

MaxPB said:

dixiedean said:

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour.
...

Hmm.

The promise:

When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.

The reality:

Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”

He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.

“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_food.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/02/brexit-uk-food-drink-exports-eu-disastrous-decline

As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.

Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.

I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.

It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.

Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's?
To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up?
You do see the issue here?

Shut down entire industries that have no voters. The whole labour force is imported from end to end, the whining is only ever going to be from agribusiness.

It's also not state mandated shutting down, it's just inevitably going to become unviable vs imports of battery chickens without cheap immigrant labour or absolutely huge investment in automation. The latter strikes me as unlikely, instead the business owners will whine about lack of cheap labour and continue to do so until the companies fail and then whine about the companies failing but completely ignore that they just sat there and took profits in the good times and didn't put any investment in.

Theuniondivvie said:

JosiasJessop said:

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

No thread on James Brokenshire, RIP?

I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?

Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.

Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.

Yes, exactly the same thing struck me.
I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?

I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.

The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.

I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.

"As close to a certainty as there can be"

So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?

If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you

Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?

@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.

Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies.
No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.

Ummm.

I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.

Are you SeanT?

I thought we were all Spartacus SeanT?

I am SeanT!

There can be only one...

It's a kind of magic....

SeanT's motto in life: "It's better to burn out, than to fade away!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJ_bl4dr1po

Burn out like a phoenix I presume you mean..

Philip_Thompson said:

Stark_Dawning said:

In their zeal, Tory Leavers are now advocating the destruction of British agriculture just to prove Boris right. Unbelievable.

Hey that's not fair!

I've always been OK with the destruction of British agriculture.

[Actually I don't think it will be destroyed, I think we should follow the NZ model and have every confidence British agriculture can thrive - but I'm entirely OK with it being destroyed if I happen to be wrong on that opinion]

Leon said:

Roger said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day

Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive

You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.

Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/oct/08/marcus-rashford-attacks-universal-credit-cut-at-degree-ceremony

But it’s the same on British TV. It looks much more to America (too much, for me) - but also increasingly to Asia, and China

Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.

Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?

The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below

‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1441816802837901312?s=21

That’s his pinned tweet. That’s the opinion he has which he thinks is most important right now. Wtf. He’s Finnish. Lol

Hopefully in a few years when Brexit is accepted we can all go back to courteously ignoring each other, like normal neighbours

another_richard said:

Fishing said:

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Omnium said:

Re header and @MikeSmithson. Endless header posts will not assuage your conscience. The Tories are currently the best placed to be in government. The other parties are simply hopeless, and that's especially the LDs.

Beyond the Tory party the next best placed person to be PM in my opinion is Farage. Fertile ground for the Greens, but WTF are the usual parties of opposition doing!?

I would just comment that there is agreement that we face an extraordinary cost of living crisis with worldwide energy prices rocketing, shortages across the planet with container ships held at anchor in many places, indeed 14 were held at anchor of Anglesey last week due to adverse weather conditions for docking in Liverpool

HMG is facing the bleakest outlook I can remember, not least as covid continues and the economic shocks are extreme.

Taxes are rising and it is fair enough to complain about the loss of the £20 UC uplift but that would add £6billion or 1% on income tax year year on year and Starmer has still not said how he would cover the deficit other than muttering 'tory donors'.

I would be very surprised to see the conservatives retain their poll lead but does anyone know how labour would fund their 170 billion of spending and address the present energy and shortages issues

HMG is having to make extraordinarily unpopular decisions, but in truth governments across Europe and elsewhere are facing the same tsunami of a crisis

We must also remember that on top of this, COP26 is going to involve very expensive commitments (Insulate Britain said they want a trillion to insulate UK homes) and sooner or later the costs are going to collide with policy makers and why has nobody had the courage to say we have to transition to carbon neutral in a manner that does not create massive poverty and societal disruption and if that includes in the UK case giving the go ahead to the Shetland oil fields then so be it

True, but just about all of the wounds you list are self-inflicted. Energy shortages, but shale gas just left in the ground. Public finances in crisis, but lots of hugely wasteful spending. House prices too high, but absurd planning laws. COP26 commitments because of green crap.

It's the consequence of the soft socialism and politically correct pandering we've subjected the economy to over the last 20 years.

(I could have added lockdown, which was designed to inflict maximum economic damage).

Shale gas has been left in the ground (globally), because we had a pandemic and prices crashed.

Remember that the production profile of a shale gas well is very different to that of a traditional oil or gas project. With shale, if you stop drilling, production drops very rapidly.

What we've seen is that demand fell during the pandemic, drilling stopped, and shale gas production dropped sharply. Rig counts are now rising (although they still need to increase further), and production will rapidly follow.

There are still essentially no spot exports of LNG from the US, but that will change in the next few months. By April/May next year, US natural gas production should have increased more than 10 billion cubic feet a day, and be hitting new highs. (For reference, UK natural gas demand is only 7 billion feet/day)

Shale gas was left in the ground in the UK because the government messed around for years about issuing then suspending licences, and had absurdly and unrealistically tight seismic requirements. That's one important reason why our wholesale gas prices are several times America's, and we're desperately dependent on Russia.

Yet another example of the government shooting the country in the foot.

For shale gas to be developed in this country people in the areas affected had to directly benefit.

Otherwise they had every reason to oppose it followed by their elected representatives.

dixiedean said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

MaxPB said:

dixiedean said:

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour.
...

Hmm.

The promise:

When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.

The reality:

Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”

He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.

“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_food.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/02/brexit-uk-food-drink-exports-eu-disastrous-decline

As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.

Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.

I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.

It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.

Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's?
To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up?
You do see the issue here?

Shut down entire industries that have no voters. The whole labour force is imported from end to end, the whining is only ever going to be from agribusiness.

I don't know where you are speaking from. But agribusiness votes Tory.
Meanwhile, the vast majority of jobs round here are in, or dependent on, agriculture. Nary an imported worker, nor much of a subsidy to be seen.
Nor much of a profit. Take away UC and the whole place would go tits up.
You're talking early 80's industrial North.
Votes Tory too.

You are HYUFD and I claim my £5

The right thing to do is still the right thing to do, even if it affects Tory voters.

Been accused of many things in my time....
Meanwhile.
Quite apart from owt else. You think this PM will do what's right above Tory voters? Bless.

IshmaelZ said:

Roger said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day

Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive

You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.

Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/oct/08/marcus-rashford-attacks-universal-credit-cut-at-degree-ceremony

Any bookies out there interested in long term investors? I'd like some M Rashford to be an MP in the next 20 years at 100/1 please.

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

MaxPB said:

dixiedean said:

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour.
...

Hmm.

The promise:

When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.

The reality:

Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”

He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.

“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_food.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/02/brexit-uk-food-drink-exports-eu-disastrous-decline

As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.

Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.

I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.

It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.

Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's?
To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up?
You do see the issue here?

Shut down entire industries that have no voters. The whole labour force is imported from end to end, the whining is only ever going to be from agribusiness.

I don't know where you are speaking from. But agribusiness votes Tory.
Meanwhile, the vast majority of jobs round here are in, or dependent on, agriculture. Nary an imported worker, nor much of a subsidy to be seen.
Nor much of a profit. Take away UC and the whole place would go tits up.
You're talking early 80's industrial North.
Votes Tory too.

You are HYUFD and I claim my £5

The right thing to do is still the right thing to do, even if it affects Tory voters.

Been accused of many things in my time....
Meanwhile.
Quite apart from owt else. You think this PM will do what's right above Tory voters? Bless.

Yes I do actually.

It depends which Tory voters you're talking about afterall. "Business" tends to be pro-Tory traditionally but when it came push to shove this PM had the cojones to say "fuck business" when some chose to stand in the way of what needed to be done.

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MrEd said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

Similar phenomenon when it comes to Trump quite frankly. Pure evil, determined to bring the world to war, The Omen reincarnated etc. etc.

The EU and Biden have quite a few things in common.

Nah, I think with Biden people voted for him knowing the flaws. I'd suggest the religious zeal and idealisation exists significantly within the GOP ranks about Trump. The guy is clearly a complete fool who happened upon a winning formula of identity politics for working class whites.

No, there ARE definite similarities between Strasbourg Syndrome and Trump Derangement Syndrome. Indeed there are links - one reason some American liberals fear and loathe Brexit (without understanding it) is because they think it is Trumpite, and they believe Boris is the British Trump.

Both syndromes drive the sufferer into irrational positions. Many people flatly refused to believe the ‘lab leak hypothesis’ - indeed dismissed it as racist and mad - simply because Trump was one of the first people to espouse it. It’s quite noticeable that, almost as soon as Trump left office, the hypothesis was suddenly revived, and deemed acceptable, and now it is publicly acknowledged as highly likely

That said, Trump genuinely WAS a threat to world stability and American democracy, whereas Brexit was the opposite: a democratic act. So there are massive fundamental differences, too

Farooq said:

kle4 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

No thread on James Brokenshire, RIP?

I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?

Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.

Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.

Yes, exactly the same thing struck me.
I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?

I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.

The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.

I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.

"As close to a certainty as there can be"

So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?

If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you

Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?

@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.

Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies.
No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.

Ummm.

I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.

I don't know you from adam, and your identity isn't the point

True, but there's no need to be a dick about it.

Nobody's being a dick, I just don't bet against individuals, especially not strangers on the internet. I have been burned once by having a bet with a someone in my social circle who refused to pay out because "I was drunk so it doesn't count".

I resurrected this from the previous thread precisely not to appear to have deliberately ignored it. Because that would have been rude, and try to only be rude on purpose.

IanB2 said:

Has SeanLeon noticed today’s German case numbers yet, and spotted that yesterday’s published number of deaths has been reduced dramatically downwards?

Roger said:

Leon said:

Roger said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day

Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive

You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.

Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/oct/08/marcus-rashford-attacks-universal-credit-cut-at-degree-ceremony

But it’s the same on British TV. It looks much more to America (too much, for me) - but also increasingly to Asia, and China

Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.

Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?

The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below

‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1441816802837901312?s=21

That’s his pinned tweet. That’s the opinion he has which he thinks is most important right now. Wtf. He’s Finnish. Lol

Hopefully in a few years when Brexit is accepted we can all go back to courteously ignoring each other, like normal neighbours

Finland's ex PM is on the money. There is a change in mood and it's not for the better. The Cote d'Azur doesn't feel part English anymore which is rather sad.

Malmesbury said:

geoffw said:

Malmesbury said:

geoffw said:

Roger said:

Leon said:

Roger said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day

Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive

You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.

Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/oct/08/marcus-rashford-attacks-universal-credit-cut-at-degree-ceremony

But it’s the same on British TV. It looks much more to America (too much, for me) - but also increasingly to Asia, and China

Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.

Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?

The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below

‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1441816802837901312?s=21

That’s his pinned tweet. That’s the opinion he has which he thinks is most important right now. Wtf. He’s Finnish. Lol

Hopefully in a few years when Brexit is accepted we can all go back to courteously ignoring each other, like normal neighbours

Finland's ex PM is on the money. There is a change in mood and it's not for the better. The Cote d'Azur doesn't feel part English anymore which is rather sad.

You can no longer saunter down the Promenade des Anglais and pretend you belong. Quelle dommage!

No Boris Becker?

eh?

A certain poster once quoted (with approval) a statement by Boris Becker, which wasn't very pro-French.

SandyRentool said:

Some nutter has been going around our neck of the woods putting up anti-vax propaganda stickers.

Roger said:

Leon said:

Roger said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day

Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive

You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.

Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/oct/08/marcus-rashford-attacks-universal-credit-cut-at-degree-ceremony

But it’s the same on British TV. It looks much more to America (too much, for me) - but also increasingly to Asia, and China

Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.

Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?

The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below

‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1441816802837901312?s=21

That’s his pinned tweet. That’s the opinion he has which he thinks is most important right now. Wtf. He’s Finnish. Lol

Hopefully in a few years when Brexit is accepted we can all go back to courteously ignoring each other, like normal neighbours

Finland's ex PM is on the money. There is a change in mood and it's not for the better. The Cote d'Azur doesn't feel part English anymore which is rather sad.

Foxy said:

geoffw said:

Gardenwalker said:

Charles said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

Remind me what Finlandization means again…? I guess she doesn’t understand the value of freedom

Classic Brexsplaining.

Of course the Finns are too daft to do democracy!

They vie with NZ for the first democratic franchise.

Really? They were part of czarist Russia until 1918.

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MrEd said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

Similar phenomenon when it comes to Trump quite frankly. Pure evil, determined to bring the world to war, The Omen reincarnated etc. etc.

The EU and Biden have quite a few things in common.

Nah, I think with Biden people voted for him knowing the flaws. I'd suggest the religious zeal and idealisation exists significantly within the GOP ranks about Trump. The guy is clearly a complete fool who happened upon a winning formula of identity politics for working class whites.

No, there ARE definite similarities between Strasbourg Syndrome and Trump Derangement Syndrome. Indeed there are links - one reason some American liberals fear and loathe Brexit (without understanding it) is because they think it is Trumpite, and they believe Boris is the British Trump.

Both syndromes drive the sufferer into irrational positions. Many people flatly refused to believe the ‘lab leak hypothesis’ - indeed dismissed it as racist and mad - simply because Trump was one of the first people to espouse it. It’s quite noticeable that, almost as soon as Trump left office, the hypothesis was suddenly revived, and deemed acceptable, and now it is publicly acknowledged as highly likely

That said, Trump genuinely WAS a threat to world stability and American democracy, whereas Brexit was the opposite: a democratic act. So there are massive fundamental differences, too

Oh, there's no shortage of complete obsessives, for whom either the EU is perfection, or for whom it is the EUSSR.

Ultimately though - "the Biden is the EU" is deeply flawed, because choosing Brexit was choosing democracy. And so was choosing Biden.

geoffw said:

Roger said:

Leon said:

Roger said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day

Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive

You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.

Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/oct/08/marcus-rashford-attacks-universal-credit-cut-at-degree-ceremony

But it’s the same on British TV. It looks much more to America (too much, for me) - but also increasingly to Asia, and China

Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.

Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?

The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below

‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1441816802837901312?s=21

That’s his pinned tweet. That’s the opinion he has which he thinks is most important right now. Wtf. He’s Finnish. Lol

Hopefully in a few years when Brexit is accepted we can all go back to courteously ignoring each other, like normal neighbours

Finland's ex PM is on the money. There is a change in mood and it's not for the better. The Cote d'Azur doesn't feel part English anymore which is rather sad.

You can no longer saunter down the Promenade des Anglais and pretend you belong. Quelle dommage!

Farooq said:

kle4 said:

Farooq said:

kle4 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

No thread on James Brokenshire, RIP?

I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?

Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.

Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.

Yes, exactly the same thing struck me.
I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?

I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.

The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.

I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.

"As close to a certainty as there can be"

So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?

If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you

Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?

@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.

Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies.
No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.

Ummm.

I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.

I don't know you from adam, and your identity isn't the point

True, but there's no need to be a dick about it.

Nobody's being a dick, I just don't bet against individuals, especially not strangers on the internet. I have been burned once by having a bet with a someone in my social circle who refused to pay out because "I was drunk so it doesn't count".

I resurrected this from the previous thread precisely not to appear to have deliberately ignored it. Because that would have been rude, and try to only be rude on purpose.

The 'I don't know you from adam' was the bit I meant. Just no would have made the point.

Do you think that's an impolite expression? I have always taken it to simply a way of emphasising that I have no idea who that person is. Same as saying you wouldn't know them if you fell over them. I'll be more careful using that expression in future if you think it demeans the object of the expression, but that's not how I thought it was used.
Anyway, to be clear on the point, I have no idea who rcs is (and still don't, should I?) but even if I did it doesn't matter.