Is anyone watching the new “28 Up”? It is not at all as good as the original, although it’s interesting to think why.
One reason, I think, is that Britain really is less class-bound than it was 30 years ago. Most of this crop of kids (who were 7 in 2000) have settled into a kind of generic lower middle class-ness, regardless of race or even disability. And the two rich kids have done fuck-all with some very expensive educations.
The kids appear to be duller, too. Maybe growing up in the 60s and 70s was more character-building.
No. Thanks for this. I'm a big fan of 7 Up but knew nothing about this new series. I'll go back to the first one from 2000.
The original is great, isn’t it?
My daughter turns 7 in a few months and it is both sobering and exciting to think of what kind of person she might be in 20 years time (sobering because of the parental responsibility…).
Trafford have reintroduced a requirement for parents to wear facemasks when dropping kids off and picking them up, and for kids in senior schools. How fucking depressing. I'm not scared of this virus. But I am scared of how our public sector reacts to it.
Something must be done This is something Therefore we must do this
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
I don't know why we bother getting dressed in the morning, Max. Because soon as you start gazing at us we may as well be naked.
I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?
Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.
Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.
Yes, exactly the same thing struck me. I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?
I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.
The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.
I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.
"As close to a certainty as there can be"
So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?
If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you
Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?
@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.
Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies. No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.
Ummm.
I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.
Is anyone watching the new “28 Up”? It is not at all as good as the original, although it’s interesting to think why.
One reason, I think, is that Britain really is less class-bound than it was 30 years ago. Most of this crop of kids (who were 7 in 2000) have settled into a kind of generic lower middle class-ness, regardless of race or even disability. And the two rich kids have done fuck-all with some very expensive educations.
The kids appear to be duller, too. Maybe growing up in the 60s and 70s was more character-building.
No. Thanks for this. I'm a big fan of 7 Up but knew nothing about this new series. I'll go back to the first one from 2000.
The original is great, isn’t it?
My daughter turns 7 in a few months and it is both sobering and exciting to think of what kind of person she might be in 20 years time (sobering because of the parental responsibility…).
The original is really one of the best TV programmes ever made. I only watched one of the new ones so far. While I think I agree with you, I wonder whether partly this is because we have a longer lifetime to look back on with the first one - so we see the full arc of a life, and the past is so old it really is another country, exotic and interesting in a way that 2000 or 2007 can't be. And 28 year olds these days they are barely adults! Maybe give in another 14 or 28 years or so, and then compare. On topic: 2022? No way.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
Mate I always thought that best Brexit would mean everything would get a bit more expensive and tricky to do but nothing too dramatic and most people wouldn't notice. A bit like 2p on beer and fags.
Now, we may be in the fast lane towards the sunlit uplands but as it stands with the pigs, the fuel shortages, gas prices, likely general inflation, Northern Ireland, UC withdrawal, the near collapse of public trust in the police, I would by no stretch of the imagination say that right this minute the UK is prospering.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
I don't know why we bother getting dressed in the morning, Max. Because soon as you start gazing at us we may as well be naked.
You at least realise the emperor has no clothes, you still defend the EU for reasons beyond my understanding. Maybe it's part of your culture war, you don't hate the idea of leaving the EU, you hate the people that vote leave.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
Mate I always thought that best Brexit would mean everything would get a bit more expensive and tricky to do but nothing too dramatic and most people wouldn't notice. A bit like 2p on beer and fags.
Now, we may be in the fast lane towards the sunlit uplands but as it stands with the pigs, the fuel shortages, gas prices, likely general inflation, Northern Ireland, UC withdrawal, the near collapse of public trust in the police, I would by no stretch of the imagination say that right this minute the UK is prospering.
The police are doing exactly what they have always done - just a bit more publicly. In fact, it could argued that they have got better -
I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?
Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.
Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.
Yes, exactly the same thing struck me. I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?
I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.
The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.
I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.
"As close to a certainty as there can be"
So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?
If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you
Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?
@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.
Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies. No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.
Ummm.
I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.
I don't know you from adam, and your identity isn't the point
Trafford have reintroduced a requirement for parents to wear facemasks when dropping kids off and picking them up, and for kids in senior schools. How fucking depressing. I'm not scared of this virus. But I am scared of how our public sector reacts to it.
Something must be done This is something Therefore we must do this
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
Mate I always thought that best Brexit would mean everything would get a bit more expensive and tricky to do but nothing too dramatic and most people wouldn't notice. A bit like 2p on beer and fags.
Now, we may be in the fast lane towards the sunlit uplands but as it stands with the pigs, the fuel shortages, gas prices, likely general inflation, Northern Ireland, UC withdrawal, the near collapse of public trust in the police, I would by no stretch of the imagination say that right this minute the UK is prospering.
The police are doing exactly what they have always done - just a bit more publicly. In fact, it could argued that they have got better -
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
Similar phenomenon when it comes to Trump quite frankly. Pure evil, determined to bring the world to war, The Omen reincarnated etc. etc.
The EU and Biden have quite a few things in common.
Nah, I think with Biden people voted for him knowing the flaws. I'd suggest the religious zeal and idealisation exists significantly within the GOP ranks about Trump. The guy is clearly a complete fool who happened upon a winning formula of identity politics for working class whites.
No, there ARE definite similarities between Strasbourg Syndrome and Trump Derangement Syndrome. Indeed there are links - one reason some American liberals fear and loathe Brexit (without understanding it) is because they think it is Trumpite, and they believe Boris is the British Trump.
Both syndromes drive the sufferer into irrational positions. Many people flatly refused to believe the ‘lab leak hypothesis’ - indeed dismissed it as racist and mad - simply because Trump was one of the first people to espouse it. It’s quite noticeable that, almost as soon as Trump left office, the hypothesis was suddenly revived, and deemed acceptable, and now it is publicly acknowledged as highly likely
That said, Trump genuinely WAS a threat to world stability and American democracy, whereas Brexit was the opposite: a democratic act. So there are massive fundamental differences, too
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
Mate I always thought that best Brexit would mean everything would get a bit more expensive and tricky to do but nothing too dramatic and most people wouldn't notice. A bit like 2p on beer and fags.
Now, we may be in the fast lane towards the sunlit uplands but as it stands with the pigs, the fuel shortages, gas prices, likely general inflation, Northern Ireland, UC withdrawal, the near collapse of public trust in the police, I would by no stretch of the imagination say that right this minute the UK is prospering.
The police are doing exactly what they have always done - just a bit more publicly. In fact, it could argued that they have got better -
The safety of people travelling on the Capital’s roads is our number one priority.
We have been granted an injunction this afternoon by the High Court which bans protestors from engaging in activities that obstruct traffic at 14 locations.
I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?
Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.
Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.
Yes, exactly the same thing struck me. I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?
I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.
The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.
I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.
"As close to a certainty as there can be"
So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?
If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you
Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?
@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.
Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies. No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.
Ummm.
I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.
Are you SeanT?
I thought we were all Spartacus SeanT?
I am SeanT!
There can be only one...
Being SeanT is a state of mind. 'You feeling a bit SeanT right now?', that kind of thing.
I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?
Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.
Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.
Yes, exactly the same thing struck me. I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?
I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.
The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.
I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.
"As close to a certainty as there can be"
So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?
If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you
Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?
@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.
Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies. No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.
Ummm.
I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.
I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?
Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.
Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.
Yes, exactly the same thing struck me. I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?
I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.
The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.
I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.
"As close to a certainty as there can be"
So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?
If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you
Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?
@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.
Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies. No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.
Ummm.
I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.
I don't know you from adam, and your identity isn't the point
The safety of people travelling on the Capital’s roads is our number one priority.
We have been granted an injunction this afternoon by the High Court which bans protestors from engaging in activities that obstruct traffic at 14 locations.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
Mate I always thought that best Brexit would mean everything would get a bit more expensive and tricky to do but nothing too dramatic and most people wouldn't notice. A bit like 2p on beer and fags.
Now, we may be in the fast lane towards the sunlit uplands but as it stands with the pigs, the fuel shortages, gas prices, likely general inflation, Northern Ireland, UC withdrawal, the near collapse of public trust in the police, I would by no stretch of the imagination say that right this minute the UK is prospering.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour.
Though I'm not sure any of it really has much to do with Brexit other than NI and even there it looks as though the EU has folded on the issue and will no longer blockade GB/NI trade.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
Mate I always thought that best Brexit would mean everything would get a bit more expensive and tricky to do but nothing too dramatic and most people wouldn't notice. A bit like 2p on beer and fags.
Now, we may be in the fast lane towards the sunlit uplands but as it stands with the pigs, the fuel shortages, gas prices, likely general inflation, Northern Ireland, UC withdrawal, the near collapse of public trust in the police, I would by no stretch of the imagination say that right this minute the UK is prospering.
The police are doing exactly what they have always done - just a bit more publicly. In fact, it could argued that they have got better -
I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?
Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.
Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.
Yes, exactly the same thing struck me. I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?
I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.
The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.
I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.
"As close to a certainty as there can be"
So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?
If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you
Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?
@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.
Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies. No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.
Ummm.
I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.
I don't know you from adam, and your identity isn't the point
True, but there's no need to be a dick about it.
Until I realised whose credit he was worried about, I was going to suggest that he could secure his position by putting stakes and payouts in escrow with @rcs1000.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
Mate I always thought that best Brexit would mean everything would get a bit more expensive and tricky to do but nothing too dramatic and most people wouldn't notice. A bit like 2p on beer and fags.
Now, we may be in the fast lane towards the sunlit uplands but as it stands with the pigs, the fuel shortages, gas prices, likely general inflation, Northern Ireland, UC withdrawal, the near collapse of public trust in the police, I would by no stretch of the imagination say that right this minute the UK is prospering.
The police are doing exactly what they have always done - just a bit more publicly. In fact, it could argued that they have got better -
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
Mate I always thought that best Brexit would mean everything would get a bit more expensive and tricky to do but nothing too dramatic and most people wouldn't notice. A bit like 2p on beer and fags.
Now, we may be in the fast lane towards the sunlit uplands but as it stands with the pigs, the fuel shortages, gas prices, likely general inflation, Northern Ireland, UC withdrawal, the near collapse of public trust in the police, I would by no stretch of the imagination say that right this minute the UK is prospering.
The police are doing exactly what they have always done - just a bit more publicly. In fact, it could argued that they have got better -
And yes as I pointed out the judge in the Everard case has had much experience with the West Midlands SCS.
"By God, this Crime Squad is well-named!" - as Sir Harry Esson might have said...
Taking the obscurity of your allusions to the Max, there.
The West Midlands Serious Crime Squad committing most of the serious crimes in the West Midlands was something that would have appealed to Max, I rather think.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
Their elite clearly does talk about “the Anglo-Saxons” all the time, so do you just disassociate yourself from that term and imagine that they only mean the Americans and not us?
The safety of people travelling on the Capital’s roads is our number one priority.
We have been granted an injunction this afternoon by the High Court which bans protestors from engaging in activities that obstruct traffic at 14 locations.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Or mechanise them. Not so very long ago (there are still people alive who remember this) the wheat harvest was a mass call up of low paid farm labourers (and any vaguely useful bod) to get the harvest in before it spoiled.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
But it’s the same on British TV. It looks much more to America (too much, for me) - but also increasingly to Asia, and China
Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.
Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?
The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below
‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
The only reason this has real traction is that Boris Johnson and the tories know that things are going to get worse.
That's not a political comment as such. Even if you are a Blue Brexiteer you must realise that the sunny uplit lands of your utopia isn't going to come to fruition this side of the next General Election. Even the most optimistic amongst you won't see results for c. 5 years and, realistically, we could be looking at 10 or more. (I'm ignoring those of us who thing this is a permanent one way downhill path).
Once the conference dust has settled and we look at the polls again in around 3 weeks from now the tories will most likely have single digit leads.
But in 2022 we may start to see some more red squares in those right hand margins and in 2023 there may be a lot more red ones than blue.
So this year, for all its ills, may have been the Boris Johnson high water mark. I think part of him suspects the same.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
Not to mention rural economies. Not everyone who works in agriculture is low paid. There is an entire infrastructure who facilitate and service it. There are, believe it or not, folk who live and work many miles from an alternative source of employment. The vast majority of these places elect Conservative MP's.
Trafford have reintroduced a requirement for parents to wear facemasks when dropping kids off and picking them up, and for kids in senior schools. How fucking depressing. I'm not scared of this virus. But I am scared of how our public sector reacts to it.
Something must be done This is something Therefore we must do this
“Don’t just do something, sit there!”
Was that Reagan? One of my faves anyway
He had some great one line gags didn't he? 'There you go again' was just so cuttingly simple, proving that sometimes less is more.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?
Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.
Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.
Yes, exactly the same thing struck me. I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?
I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.
The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.
I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.
"As close to a certainty as there can be"
So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?
If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you
Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?
@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.
Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies. No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.
Ummm.
I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.
Are you SeanT?
I thought we were all Spartacus SeanT?
I am SeanT!
There can be only one...
It's a kind of magic....
SeanT's motto in life: "It's better to burn out, than to fade away!"
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
Their elite clearly does talk about “the Anglo-Saxons” all the time, so do you just disassociate yourself from that term and imagine that they only mean the Americans and not us?
It’s time we came up with a term to describe the patronising guff that emanates from some posters.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
Their elite clearly does talk about “the Anglo-Saxons” all the time, so do you just disassociate yourself from that term and imagine that they only mean the Americans and not us?
It’s time we came up with a term to describe the patronising guff that emanates from some posters.
No and he would be an idiot to do so given every current poll shows the Tories losing seats compared to 2019.
Half the current polls even have the Tories losing their majority and a hung parliament. He will wait until 2023/4.
As May and Trudeau showed in 2017 and this September unnecessary elections called early rarely get the big majorities aimed for, both scraped back into power rather than romping home
But HY, the prospects going forward look bleak, horrendous infact.
A December 2021 election gives Johnson a circa 40/50 seat majority until May 2026 by which time he could happily jump ship to the US after dinner circuit.
The added bonus of a defeated Starmer would leave the Labour Party in turmoil.
It's a win, win, win for Johnson. Not so much for the rest of us.
He can happily jump ship to that circuit at any time, so I am not sure that makes the case for why he would go early.
Firstly, ignore the polls, and ignore historical precedent - both meaningless in this unique situation. It actually requires a proper statesman to feel for what is likely to happen. That is This is not a normal term with Covid eating up two years of it.
Here’s a better guide: what had actually changed so many minds so quickly from 2005 to 2007 when Brown bottled it, to underwrite polling showing Tories picking up 90 seats? Not enough is the answer, it needed longer. Brown effectively turned down a 20 seat majority till 2012 just as Boris will turn down at least a 20 seat majority till 2027 if he doesn’t take it before next summer. After that point we can all have an opinion on what happens, but none of us know will know with same confidence that Boris WILL get a five year majority if he takes it before next spring.
And the alternative? How many months left to deliver a lot of promises against background of piss pot finances and weekly economic turmoil, to present the right impression in lead up to an election. You are all missing, this is not a normal five year term, Covid has eaten 2 years, it leaves strategy unit just 3 years to cram in the usual business of five.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
Their elite clearly does talk about “the Anglo-Saxons” all the time, so do you just disassociate yourself from that term and imagine that they only mean the Americans and not us?
It’s time we came up with a term to describe the patronising guff that emanates from some posters.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's? To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up? You do see the issue here?
Not sure the electorate would particularly appreciate a GE in 2022 when there is no obvious need for it.
I think it will be 2023 probably Q2 which is when elections normally are, but even that represents only a 3.5 year gap.
I can't see how he can go in 2022. It would have to be a winter election now, given the number of weeks involved.
An unnecessary GE in what may be a winter surge in covid and will almost certainly be crisis in NHS over flu and a looming lockdown would go down very badly I think.
it's 2021
i think
You don’t remember the November 2021 COVID Protection Suspended Animation Act?
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
The “£2bn” loss line is effectively a lie. It covers the first six months but, by the end of those six months, exports were almost back to normal. So the implication that there is a loss of £4bn ongoing per year is silly. And the context shows the speaker knows they are being misleading.
(That’s not to say there is yet any evidence that brexit will decrease our food trade deficit, of course.)
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
I don't know why we bother getting dressed in the morning, Max. Because soon as you start gazing at us we may as well be naked.
You at least realise the emperor has no clothes, you still defend the EU for reasons beyond my understanding. Maybe it's part of your culture war, you don't hate the idea of leaving the EU, you hate the people that vote leave.
No, not quite that. Not sure Brexit has any clothes tbh. I see it how I've put it before. It's not about hating Leavers as discreet and whole individuals. We're all a mix of Remainy and Leavey impulses to varying extents. Eg I'm about an 80/20. I fight the 20 but it's there alright. And all told and in the round and put together the less elevated side of this country of ours triumphed in the Referendum vote. So that's the 20% of me + 75% of you + 95% of Nigel Farage + 5% of Keir Starmer + 99.9999% of Bill Cash + 50% of Boris Johnson etc etc ... this was enough and prevailed. Prevailed quite easily really. It was a mirage that it was close. We are Leave Nation.
I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?
Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.
Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.
Yes, exactly the same thing struck me. I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?
I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.
The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.
I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.
"As close to a certainty as there can be"
So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?
If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you
Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?
@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.
Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies. No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.
Ummm.
I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.
Are you SeanT?
I thought we were all Spartacus SeanT?
I am SeanT!
There can be only one...
It's a kind of magic....
SeanT's motto in life: "It's better to burn out, than to fade away!"
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's? To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up? You do see the issue here?
The similarities between Brexit and Communism become more and more remarkable.
Re header and @MikeSmithson. Endless header posts will not assuage your conscience. The Tories are currently the best placed to be in government. The other parties are simply hopeless, and that's especially the LDs.
Beyond the Tory party the next best placed person to be PM in my opinion is Farage. Fertile ground for the Greens, but WTF are the usual parties of opposition doing!?
I would just comment that there is agreement that we face an extraordinary cost of living crisis with worldwide energy prices rocketing, shortages across the planet with container ships held at anchor in many places, indeed 14 were held at anchor of Anglesey last week due to adverse weather conditions for docking in Liverpool
HMG is facing the bleakest outlook I can remember, not least as covid continues and the economic shocks are extreme.
Taxes are rising and it is fair enough to complain about the loss of the £20 UC uplift but that would add £6billion or 1% on income tax year year on year and Starmer has still not said how he would cover the deficit other than muttering 'tory donors'.
I would be very surprised to see the conservatives retain their poll lead but does anyone know how labour would fund their 170 billion of spending and address the present energy and shortages issues
HMG is having to make extraordinarily unpopular decisions, but in truth governments across Europe and elsewhere are facing the same tsunami of a crisis
We must also remember that on top of this, COP26 is going to involve very expensive commitments (Insulate Britain said they want a trillion to insulate UK homes) and sooner or later the costs are going to collide with policy makers and why has nobody had the courage to say we have to transition to carbon neutral in a manner that does not create massive poverty and societal disruption and if that includes in the UK case giving the go ahead to the Shetland oil fields then so be it
True, but just about all of the wounds you list are self-inflicted. Energy shortages, but shale gas just left in the ground. Public finances in crisis, but lots of hugely wasteful spending. House prices too high, but absurd planning laws. COP26 commitments because of green crap.
It's the consequence of the soft socialism and politically correct pandering we've subjected the economy to over the last 20 years.
(I could have added lockdown, which was designed to inflict maximum economic damage).
Shale gas has been left in the ground (globally), because we had a pandemic and prices crashed.
Remember that the production profile of a shale gas well is very different to that of a traditional oil or gas project. With shale, if you stop drilling, production drops very rapidly.
What we've seen is that demand fell during the pandemic, drilling stopped, and shale gas production dropped sharply. Rig counts are now rising (although they still need to increase further), and production will rapidly follow.
There are still essentially no spot exports of LNG from the US, but that will change in the next few months. By April/May next year, US natural gas production should have increased more than 10 billion cubic feet a day, and be hitting new highs. (For reference, UK natural gas demand is only 7 billion feet/day)
Shale gas was left in the ground in the UK because the government messed around for years about issuing then suspending licences, and had absurdly and unrealistically tight seismic requirements. That's one important reason why our wholesale gas prices are several times America's, and we're desperately dependent on Russia.
Yet another example of the government shooting the country in the foot.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's? To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up? You do see the issue here?
Shut down entire industries that have no voters. The whole labour force is imported from end to end, the whining is only ever going to be from agribusiness.
It's also not state mandated shutting down, it's just inevitably going to become unviable vs imports of battery chickens without cheap immigrant labour or absolutely huge investment in automation. The latter strikes me as unlikely, instead the business owners will whine about lack of cheap labour and continue to do so until the companies fail and then whine about the companies failing but completely ignore that they just sat there and took profits in the good times and didn't put any investment in.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
I don't know why we bother getting dressed in the morning, Max. Because soon as you start gazing at us we may as well be naked.
You at least realise the emperor has no clothes, you still defend the EU for reasons beyond my understanding. Maybe it's part of your culture war, you don't hate the idea of leaving the EU, you hate the people that vote leave.
No, not quite that. Not sure Brexit has any clothes tbh. I see it how I've put it before. It's not about hating Leavers as discreet and whole individuals. We're all a mix of Remainy and Leavey impulses to varying extents. Eg I'm about an 80/20. I fight the 20 but it's there alright. And all told and in the round and put together the less elevated side of this country of ours triumphed in the Referendum vote. So that's the 20% of me + 75% of you + 95% of Nigel Farage + 5% of Keir Starmer + 99.9999% of Bill Cash + 50% of Boris Johnson etc etc ... this was enough and prevailed. Prevailed quite easily really. It was a mirage that it was close. We are Leave Nation.
Stop fighting it mate. Surrender to your maximum Leaviness. It eats you inside and is utterly futile anyways. Accept that it MAY be OK. If it is great, great. If not, wry shrug. Not your fault or mine.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's? To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up? You do see the issue here?
Shut down entire industries that have no voters. The whole labour force is imported from end to end, the whining is only ever going to be from agribusiness.
I don't know where you are speaking from. But agribusiness votes Tory. Meanwhile, the vast majority of jobs round here are in, or dependent on, agriculture. Nary an imported worker, nor much of a subsidy to be seen. Nor much of a profit. Take away UC and the whole place would go tits up. You're talking early 80's industrial North. Votes Tory too.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
Remind me what Finlandization means again…? I guess she doesn’t understand the value of freedom
Re header and @MikeSmithson. Endless header posts will not assuage your conscience. The Tories are currently the best placed to be in government. The other parties are simply hopeless, and that's especially the LDs.
Beyond the Tory party the next best placed person to be PM in my opinion is Farage. Fertile ground for the Greens, but WTF are the usual parties of opposition doing!?
I would just comment that there is agreement that we face an extraordinary cost of living crisis with worldwide energy prices rocketing, shortages across the planet with container ships held at anchor in many places, indeed 14 were held at anchor of Anglesey last week due to adverse weather conditions for docking in Liverpool
HMG is facing the bleakest outlook I can remember, not least as covid continues and the economic shocks are extreme.
Taxes are rising and it is fair enough to complain about the loss of the £20 UC uplift but that would add £6billion or 1% on income tax year year on year and Starmer has still not said how he would cover the deficit other than muttering 'tory donors'.
I would be very surprised to see the conservatives retain their poll lead but does anyone know how labour would fund their 170 billion of spending and address the present energy and shortages issues
HMG is having to make extraordinarily unpopular decisions, but in truth governments across Europe and elsewhere are facing the same tsunami of a crisis
We must also remember that on top of this, COP26 is going to involve very expensive commitments (Insulate Britain said they want a trillion to insulate UK homes) and sooner or later the costs are going to collide with policy makers and why has nobody had the courage to say we have to transition to carbon neutral in a manner that does not create massive poverty and societal disruption and if that includes in the UK case giving the go ahead to the Shetland oil fields then so be it
True, but just about all of the wounds you list are self-inflicted. Energy shortages, but shale gas just left in the ground. Public finances in crisis, but lots of hugely wasteful spending. House prices too high, but absurd planning laws. COP26 commitments because of green crap.
It's the consequence of the soft socialism and politically correct pandering we've subjected the economy to over the last 20 years.
(I could have added lockdown, which was designed to inflict maximum economic damage).
Shale gas has been left in the ground (globally), because we had a pandemic and prices crashed.
Remember that the production profile of a shale gas well is very different to that of a traditional oil or gas project. With shale, if you stop drilling, production drops very rapidly.
What we've seen is that demand fell during the pandemic, drilling stopped, and shale gas production dropped sharply. Rig counts are now rising (although they still need to increase further), and production will rapidly follow.
There are still essentially no spot exports of LNG from the US, but that will change in the next few months. By April/May next year, US natural gas production should have increased more than 10 billion cubic feet a day, and be hitting new highs. (For reference, UK natural gas demand is only 7 billion feet/day)
Shale gas was left in the ground in the UK because the government messed around for years about issuing then suspending licences, and had absurdly and unrealistically tight seismic requirements. That's one important reason why our wholesale gas prices are several times America's, and we're desperately dependent on Russia.
Yet another example of the government shooting the country in the foot.
For shale gas to be developed in this country people in the areas affected had to directly benefit.
Otherwise they had every reason to oppose it followed by their elected representatives.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
Alternatively . . .
In April 2021: The FDF complain about £2bn in 'lost sales to the EU' in Q1. In July 2021: The FDF complain about £2bn in 'lost sales to the EU' in H1 In October 2021: The FDF complain about £2bn in 'lost sales to the EU' since Brexit.
There's a pattern there, to quote a famous Australian sex pest "can you tell what it is yet?"
I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?
Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.
Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.
Yes, exactly the same thing struck me. I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?
I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.
The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.
I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.
"As close to a certainty as there can be"
So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?
If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you
Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?
@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.
Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies. No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.
Ummm.
I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.
If you want I can act as an independent agent to lodge the bet with. Most people know where to find me
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's? To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up? You do see the issue here?
Shut down entire industries that have no voters. The whole labour force is imported from end to end, the whining is only ever going to be from agribusiness.
I don't know where you are speaking from. But agribusiness votes Tory. Meanwhile, the vast majority of jobs round here are in, or dependent on, agriculture. Nary an imported worker, nor much of a subsidy to be seen. Nor much of a profit. Take away UC and the whole place would go tits up. You're talking early 80's industrial North. Votes Tory too.
You are HYUFD and I claim my £5
The right thing to do is still the right thing to do, even if it affects Tory voters.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's? To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up? You do see the issue here?
Shut down entire industries that have no voters. The whole labour force is imported from end to end, the whining is only ever going to be from agribusiness.
It's also not state mandated shutting down, it's just inevitably going to become unviable vs imports of battery chickens without cheap immigrant labour or absolutely huge investment in automation. The latter strikes me as unlikely, instead the business owners will whine about lack of cheap labour and continue to do so until the companies fail and then whine about the companies failing but completely ignore that they just sat there and took profits in the good times and didn't put any investment in.
Farming-wise we could do whatever New Zealand does. They have lots of fertile land, yet hardly any workers, they can’t import cheap labour because they are a billion miles from anywhere, yet they manage to be an agricultural superpower - eg one of the top 2 or 3 dairy exporters in the whole world.
Re header and @MikeSmithson. Endless header posts will not assuage your conscience. The Tories are currently the best placed to be in government. The other parties are simply hopeless, and that's especially the LDs.
Beyond the Tory party the next best placed person to be PM in my opinion is Farage. Fertile ground for the Greens, but WTF are the usual parties of opposition doing!?
I would just comment that there is agreement that we face an extraordinary cost of living crisis with worldwide energy prices rocketing, shortages across the planet with container ships held at anchor in many places, indeed 14 were held at anchor of Anglesey last week due to adverse weather conditions for docking in Liverpool
HMG is facing the bleakest outlook I can remember, not least as covid continues and the economic shocks are extreme.
Taxes are rising and it is fair enough to complain about the loss of the £20 UC uplift but that would add £6billion or 1% on income tax year year on year and Starmer has still not said how he would cover the deficit other than muttering 'tory donors'.
I would be very surprised to see the conservatives retain their poll lead but does anyone know how labour would fund their 170 billion of spending and address the present energy and shortages issues
HMG is having to make extraordinarily unpopular decisions, but in truth governments across Europe and elsewhere are facing the same tsunami of a crisis
We must also remember that on top of this, COP26 is going to involve very expensive commitments (Insulate Britain said they want a trillion to insulate UK homes) and sooner or later the costs are going to collide with policy makers and why has nobody had the courage to say we have to transition to carbon neutral in a manner that does not create massive poverty and societal disruption and if that includes in the UK case giving the go ahead to the Shetland oil fields then so be it
True, but just about all of the wounds you list are self-inflicted. Energy shortages, but shale gas just left in the ground. Public finances in crisis, but lots of hugely wasteful spending. House prices too high, but absurd planning laws. COP26 commitments because of green crap.
It's the consequence of the soft socialism and politically correct pandering we've subjected the economy to over the last 20 years.
(I could have added lockdown, which was designed to inflict maximum economic damage).
Shale gas has been left in the ground (globally), because we had a pandemic and prices crashed.
Remember that the production profile of a shale gas well is very different to that of a traditional oil or gas project. With shale, if you stop drilling, production drops very rapidly.
What we've seen is that demand fell during the pandemic, drilling stopped, and shale gas production dropped sharply. Rig counts are now rising (although they still need to increase further), and production will rapidly follow.
There are still essentially no spot exports of LNG from the US, but that will change in the next few months. By April/May next year, US natural gas production should have increased more than 10 billion cubic feet a day, and be hitting new highs. (For reference, UK natural gas demand is only 7 billion feet/day)
Shale gas was left in the ground in the UK because the government messed around for years about issuing then suspending licences, and had absurdly and unrealistically tight seismic requirements. That's one important reason why our wholesale gas prices are several times America's, and we're desperately dependent on Russia.
Yet another example of the government shooting the country in the foot.
It’s in the ground in the UK because the crown owns the mineral rights beneath your home and therefore every Brit is up in arms at the thought of the dangerous drilling in their local area. In the US, you own your own mineral rights and every home owner is desperate to cash in from someone coming and extracting the shale gas from beneath their land.
I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?
Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.
Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.
Yes, exactly the same thing struck me. I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?
I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.
The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.
I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.
"As close to a certainty as there can be"
So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?
If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you
Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?
@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.
Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies. No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.
Ummm.
I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.
Are you SeanT?
I thought we were all Spartacus SeanT?
I am SeanT!
There can be only one...
It's a kind of magic....
SeanT's motto in life: "It's better to burn out, than to fade away!"
In their zeal, Tory Leavers are now advocating the destruction of British agriculture just to prove Boris right. Unbelievable.
Hey that's not fair!
I've always been OK with the destruction of British agriculture.
[Actually I don't think it will be destroyed, I think we should follow the NZ model and have every confidence British agriculture can thrive - but I'm entirely OK with it being destroyed if I happen to be wrong on that opinion]
In their zeal, Tory Leavers are now advocating the destruction of British agriculture just to prove Boris right. Unbelievable.
Hey that's not fair!
I've always been OK with the destruction of British agriculture.
[Actually I don't think it will be destroyed, I think we should follow the NZ model and have every confidence British agriculture can thrive - but I'm entirely OK with it being destroyed if I happen to be wrong on that opinion]
And that's the issue here, the whole industry needs modernise. It needs mega investment in automation. Instead they're agitating to hold on to cheap labour and avoid actually spending money.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's? To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up? You do see the issue here?
Shut down entire industries that have no voters. The whole labour force is imported from end to end, the whining is only ever going to be from agribusiness.
I don't know where you are speaking from. But agribusiness votes Tory. Meanwhile, the vast majority of jobs round here are in, or dependent on, agriculture. Nary an imported worker, nor much of a subsidy to be seen. Nor much of a profit. Take away UC and the whole place would go tits up. You're talking early 80's industrial North. Votes Tory too.
You are HYUFD and I claim my £5
The right thing to do is still the right thing to do, even if it affects Tory voters.
Been accused of many things in my time.... Meanwhile. Quite apart from owt else. You think this PM will do what's right above Tory voters? Bless.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
But it’s the same on British TV. It looks much more to America (too much, for me) - but also increasingly to Asia, and China
Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.
Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?
The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below
‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’
That’s his pinned tweet. That’s the opinion he has which he thinks is most important right now. Wtf. He’s Finnish. Lol
Hopefully in a few years when Brexit is accepted we can all go back to courteously ignoring each other, like normal neighbours
Finland's ex PM is on the money. There is a change in mood and it's not for the better. The Cote d'Azur doesn't feel part English anymore which is rather sad.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's? To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up? You do see the issue here?
The similarities between Brexit and Communism become more and more remarkable.
Battalions of government agents raiding kulaks' houses to check for deviationist stockpiling..
'But comrades, we voted for you! We love dear father Boris..'
Re header and @MikeSmithson. Endless header posts will not assuage your conscience. The Tories are currently the best placed to be in government. The other parties are simply hopeless, and that's especially the LDs.
Beyond the Tory party the next best placed person to be PM in my opinion is Farage. Fertile ground for the Greens, but WTF are the usual parties of opposition doing!?
I would just comment that there is agreement that we face an extraordinary cost of living crisis with worldwide energy prices rocketing, shortages across the planet with container ships held at anchor in many places, indeed 14 were held at anchor of Anglesey last week due to adverse weather conditions for docking in Liverpool
HMG is facing the bleakest outlook I can remember, not least as covid continues and the economic shocks are extreme.
Taxes are rising and it is fair enough to complain about the loss of the £20 UC uplift but that would add £6billion or 1% on income tax year year on year and Starmer has still not said how he would cover the deficit other than muttering 'tory donors'.
I would be very surprised to see the conservatives retain their poll lead but does anyone know how labour would fund their 170 billion of spending and address the present energy and shortages issues
HMG is having to make extraordinarily unpopular decisions, but in truth governments across Europe and elsewhere are facing the same tsunami of a crisis
We must also remember that on top of this, COP26 is going to involve very expensive commitments (Insulate Britain said they want a trillion to insulate UK homes) and sooner or later the costs are going to collide with policy makers and why has nobody had the courage to say we have to transition to carbon neutral in a manner that does not create massive poverty and societal disruption and if that includes in the UK case giving the go ahead to the Shetland oil fields then so be it
True, but just about all of the wounds you list are self-inflicted. Energy shortages, but shale gas just left in the ground. Public finances in crisis, but lots of hugely wasteful spending. House prices too high, but absurd planning laws. COP26 commitments because of green crap.
It's the consequence of the soft socialism and politically correct pandering we've subjected the economy to over the last 20 years.
(I could have added lockdown, which was designed to inflict maximum economic damage).
Shale gas has been left in the ground (globally), because we had a pandemic and prices crashed.
Remember that the production profile of a shale gas well is very different to that of a traditional oil or gas project. With shale, if you stop drilling, production drops very rapidly.
What we've seen is that demand fell during the pandemic, drilling stopped, and shale gas production dropped sharply. Rig counts are now rising (although they still need to increase further), and production will rapidly follow.
There are still essentially no spot exports of LNG from the US, but that will change in the next few months. By April/May next year, US natural gas production should have increased more than 10 billion cubic feet a day, and be hitting new highs. (For reference, UK natural gas demand is only 7 billion feet/day)
Shale gas was left in the ground in the UK because the government messed around for years about issuing then suspending licences, and had absurdly and unrealistically tight seismic requirements. That's one important reason why our wholesale gas prices are several times America's, and we're desperately dependent on Russia.
Yet another example of the government shooting the country in the foot.
For shale gas to be developed in this country people in the areas affected had to directly benefit.
Otherwise they had every reason to oppose it followed by their elected representatives.
There should be a system of direct monetary payment to citizens significantly affected by any development. It is one way of speeding up the process. Not proceeding with Shale Gas and North Sea Gas purely because of the optics is criminally irresponsible. The government's plans for transitioning away from fossil fuels require gas and so we should use the most secure sources with best economic impact. The current energy plans are reckless and I hope that the current problems result in changes before really big shortages and price hikes destroy the fabric of society in the near future.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's? To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up? You do see the issue here?
Shut down entire industries that have no voters. The whole labour force is imported from end to end, the whining is only ever going to be from agribusiness.
I don't know where you are speaking from. But agribusiness votes Tory. Meanwhile, the vast majority of jobs round here are in, or dependent on, agriculture. Nary an imported worker, nor much of a subsidy to be seen. Nor much of a profit. Take away UC and the whole place would go tits up. You're talking early 80's industrial North. Votes Tory too.
You are HYUFD and I claim my £5
The right thing to do is still the right thing to do, even if it affects Tory voters.
Been accused of many things in my time.... Meanwhile. Quite apart from owt else. You think this PM will do what's right above Tory voters? Bless.
Yes I do actually.
It depends which Tory voters you're talking about afterall. "Business" tends to be pro-Tory traditionally but when it came push to shove this PM had the cojones to say "fuck business" when some chose to stand in the way of what needed to be done.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's? To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up? You do see the issue here?
Shut down entire industries that have no voters. The whole labour force is imported from end to end, the whining is only ever going to be from agribusiness.
I don't know where you are speaking from. But agribusiness votes Tory. Meanwhile, the vast majority of jobs round here are in, or dependent on, agriculture. Nary an imported worker, nor much of a subsidy to be seen. Nor much of a profit. Take away UC and the whole place would go tits up. You're talking early 80's industrial North. Votes Tory too.
You are HYUFD and I claim my £5
The right thing to do is still the right thing to do, even if it affects Tory voters.
HYUFD's approach - cynical as it may be - at least offers some bulwark against complete madness. There seems no end to where the Boris zealots would go, simply to prove (as they would see it) their idol's omniscience and righteousness.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
Remind me what Finlandization means again…? I guess she doesn’t understand the value of freedom
Not the current she. Stubb is a keen Anglophile with a British wife and speaks better English than most natives. But he is also a fully fledged eurofanatic. Finlandization is a regrettable consequence of geography and history. No need to use it as an insult.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's? To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up? You do see the issue here?
Shut down entire industries that have no voters. The whole labour force is imported from end to end, the whining is only ever going to be from agribusiness.
I don't know where you are speaking from. But agribusiness votes Tory. Meanwhile, the vast majority of jobs round here are in, or dependent on, agriculture. Nary an imported worker, nor much of a subsidy to be seen. Nor much of a profit. Take away UC and the whole place would go tits up. You're talking early 80's industrial North. Votes Tory too.
You are HYUFD and I claim my £5
The right thing to do is still the right thing to do, even if it affects Tory voters.
Been accused of many things in my time.... Meanwhile. Quite apart from owt else. You think this PM will do what's right above Tory voters? Bless.
Yes I do actually.
It depends which Tory voters you're talking about afterall. "Business" tends to be pro-Tory traditionally but when it came push to shove this PM had the cojones to say "fuck business" when some chose to stand in the way of what needed to be done.
So that's business. And agriculture. And with it the rural communities. Any other Tory voters who actually do a day's work to be sacrificed for the pensioners?
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
Similar phenomenon when it comes to Trump quite frankly. Pure evil, determined to bring the world to war, The Omen reincarnated etc. etc.
The EU and Biden have quite a few things in common.
Nah, I think with Biden people voted for him knowing the flaws. I'd suggest the religious zeal and idealisation exists significantly within the GOP ranks about Trump. The guy is clearly a complete fool who happened upon a winning formula of identity politics for working class whites.
Agree. The vote for Biden was 90% a negative one. It was "we don't want Trump and this is the alternative".
No-one was actually enthused by Biden. They were enthused by getting Trump out.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
But it’s the same on British TV. It looks much more to America (too much, for me) - but also increasingly to Asia, and China
Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.
Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?
The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below
‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’
That’s his pinned tweet. That’s the opinion he has which he thinks is most important right now. Wtf. He’s Finnish. Lol
Hopefully in a few years when Brexit is accepted we can all go back to courteously ignoring each other, like normal neighbours
Finland's ex PM is on the money. There is a change in mood and it's not for the better. The Cote d'Azur doesn't feel part English anymore which is rather sad.
You can no longer saunter down the Promenade des Anglais and pretend you belong. Quelle dommage!
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
Similar phenomenon when it comes to Trump quite frankly. Pure evil, determined to bring the world to war, The Omen reincarnated etc. etc.
The EU and Biden have quite a few things in common.
Nah, I think with Biden people voted for him knowing the flaws. I'd suggest the religious zeal and idealisation exists significantly within the GOP ranks about Trump. The guy is clearly a complete fool who happened upon a winning formula of identity politics for working class whites.
No, there ARE definite similarities between Strasbourg Syndrome and Trump Derangement Syndrome. Indeed there are links - one reason some American liberals fear and loathe Brexit (without understanding it) is because they think it is Trumpite, and they believe Boris is the British Trump.
Both syndromes drive the sufferer into irrational positions. Many people flatly refused to believe the ‘lab leak hypothesis’ - indeed dismissed it as racist and mad - simply because Trump was one of the first people to espouse it. It’s quite noticeable that, almost as soon as Trump left office, the hypothesis was suddenly revived, and deemed acceptable, and now it is publicly acknowledged as highly likely
That said, Trump genuinely WAS a threat to world stability and American democracy, whereas Brexit was the opposite: a democratic act. So there are massive fundamental differences, too
Oh, there's no shortage of complete obsessives, for whom either the EU is perfection, or for whom it is the EUSSR.
Ultimately though - "the Biden is the EU" is deeply flawed, because choosing Brexit was choosing democracy. And so was choosing Biden.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
But it’s the same on British TV. It looks much more to America (too much, for me) - but also increasingly to Asia, and China
Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.
Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?
The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below
‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’
That’s his pinned tweet. That’s the opinion he has which he thinks is most important right now. Wtf. He’s Finnish. Lol
Hopefully in a few years when Brexit is accepted we can all go back to courteously ignoring each other, like normal neighbours
Finland's ex PM is on the money. There is a change in mood and it's not for the better. The Cote d'Azur doesn't feel part English anymore which is rather sad.
You can no longer saunter down the Promenade des Anglais and pretend you belong. Quelle dommage!
I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?
Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.
Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.
Yes, exactly the same thing struck me. I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?
I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.
The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.
I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.
"As close to a certainty as there can be"
So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?
If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you
Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?
@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.
Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies. No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.
Ummm.
I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.
I don't know you from adam, and your identity isn't the point
True, but there's no need to be a dick about it.
Nobody's being a dick, I just don't bet against individuals, especially not strangers on the internet. I have been burned once by having a bet with a someone in my social circle who refused to pay out because "I was drunk so it doesn't count".
I resurrected this from the previous thread precisely not to appear to have deliberately ignored it. Because that would have been rude, and try to only be rude on purpose.
I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?
Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.
Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.
Yes, exactly the same thing struck me. I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?
I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.
The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.
I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.
"As close to a certainty as there can be"
So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?
If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you
Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?
@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.
Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies. No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.
Ummm.
I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.
I don't know you from adam, and your identity isn't the point
True, but there's no need to be a dick about it.
Nobody's being a dick, I just don't bet against individuals, especially not strangers on the internet. I have been burned once by having a bet with a someone in my social circle who refused to pay out because "I was drunk so it doesn't count".
I resurrected this from the previous thread precisely not to appear to have deliberately ignored it. Because that would have been rude, and try to only be rude on purpose.
The 'I don't know you from adam' was the bit I meant. Just no would have made the point.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
But it’s the same on British TV. It looks much more to America (too much, for me) - but also increasingly to Asia, and China
Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.
Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?
The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below
‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’
That’s his pinned tweet. That’s the opinion he has which he thinks is most important right now. Wtf. He’s Finnish. Lol
Hopefully in a few years when Brexit is accepted we can all go back to courteously ignoring each other, like normal neighbours
Finland's ex PM is on the money. There is a change in mood and it's not for the better. The Cote d'Azur doesn't feel part English anymore which is rather sad.
You can no longer saunter down the Promenade des Anglais and pretend you belong. Quelle dommage!
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
But it’s the same on British TV. It looks much more to America (too much, for me) - but also increasingly to Asia, and China
Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.
Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?
The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below
‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’
That’s his pinned tweet. That’s the opinion he has which he thinks is most important right now. Wtf. He’s Finnish. Lol
Hopefully in a few years when Brexit is accepted we can all go back to courteously ignoring each other, like normal neighbours
Finland's ex PM is on the money. There is a change in mood and it's not for the better. The Cote d'Azur doesn't feel part English anymore which is rather sad.
You can no longer saunter down the Promenade des Anglais and pretend you belong. Quelle dommage!
No Boris Becker?
eh?
A certain poster once quoted (with approval) a statement by Boris Becker, which wasn't very pro-French.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
But it’s the same on British TV. It looks much more to America (too much, for me) - but also increasingly to Asia, and China
Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.
Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?
The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below
‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’
That’s his pinned tweet. That’s the opinion he has which he thinks is most important right now. Wtf. He’s Finnish. Lol
Hopefully in a few years when Brexit is accepted we can all go back to courteously ignoring each other, like normal neighbours
Finland's ex PM is on the money. There is a change in mood and it's not for the better. The Cote d'Azur doesn't feel part English anymore which is rather sad.
The Cote D’Azur. Seriously.
As for the supply chain issues and especially the fuel problems what exactly do these issues have to do with brexit ?
Brexit is a self inflicted wound for sure but the tendency to blame everything bad on it is tedious and untrue.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's? To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up? You do see the issue here?
Shut down entire industries that have no voters. The whole labour force is imported from end to end, the whining is only ever going to be from agribusiness.
I don't know where you are speaking from. But agribusiness votes Tory. Meanwhile, the vast majority of jobs round here are in, or dependent on, agriculture. Nary an imported worker, nor much of a subsidy to be seen. Nor much of a profit. Take away UC and the whole place would go tits up. You're talking early 80's industrial North. Votes Tory too.
You are HYUFD and I claim my £5
The right thing to do is still the right thing to do, even if it affects Tory voters.
Been accused of many things in my time.... Meanwhile. Quite apart from owt else. You think this PM will do what's right above Tory voters? Bless.
Yes I do actually.
It depends which Tory voters you're talking about afterall. "Business" tends to be pro-Tory traditionally but when it came push to shove this PM had the cojones to say "fuck business" when some chose to stand in the way of what needed to be done.
So that's business. And agriculture. And with it the rural communities. Any other Tory voters who actually do a day's work to be sacrificed for the pensioners?
I doubt many rural communities would be overly bothered to see the back of intensively reared pig farming and the imported workforce which goes with it.
As long as the grain fields and meadows with sheep baaing / cattle mooing remain people will be happy with what the British countryside looks like.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
But it’s the same on British TV. It looks much more to America (too much, for me) - but also increasingly to Asia, and China
Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.
Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?
The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below
‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’
That’s his pinned tweet. That’s the opinion he has which he thinks is most important right now. Wtf. He’s Finnish. Lol
Hopefully in a few years when Brexit is accepted we can all go back to courteously ignoring each other, like normal neighbours
Finland's ex PM is on the money. There is a change in mood and it's not for the better. The Cote d'Azur doesn't feel part English anymore which is rather sad.
You can no longer saunter down the Promenade des Anglais and pretend you belong. Quelle dommage!
No Boris Becker?
eh?
A certain poster once quoted (with approval) a statement by Boris Becker, which wasn't very pro-French.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
Remind me what Finlandization means again…? I guess she doesn’t understand the value of freedom
I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?
Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.
Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.
Yes, exactly the same thing struck me. I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?
I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.
The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.
I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.
"As close to a certainty as there can be"
So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?
If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you
Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?
@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.
Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies. No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.
Ummm.
I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.
I don't know you from adam, and your identity isn't the point
True, but there's no need to be a dick about it.
Nobody's being a dick, I just don't bet against individuals, especially not strangers on the internet. I have been burned once by having a bet with a someone in my social circle who refused to pay out because "I was drunk so it doesn't count".
I resurrected this from the previous thread precisely not to appear to have deliberately ignored it. Because that would have been rude, and try to only be rude on purpose.
The 'I don't know you from adam' was the bit I meant. Just no would have made the point.
Do you think that's an impolite expression? I have always taken it to simply a way of emphasising that I have no idea who that person is. Same as saying you wouldn't know them if you fell over them. I'll be more careful using that expression in future if you think it demeans the object of the expression, but that's not how I thought it was used. Anyway, to be clear on the point, I have no idea who rcs is (and still don't, should I?) but even if I did it doesn't matter.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
But it’s the same on British TV. It looks much more to America (too much, for me) - but also increasingly to Asia, and China
Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.
Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?
The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below
‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’
That’s his pinned tweet. That’s the opinion he has which he thinks is most important right now. Wtf. He’s Finnish. Lol
Hopefully in a few years when Brexit is accepted we can all go back to courteously ignoring each other, like normal neighbours
Finland's ex PM is on the money. There is a change in mood and it's not for the better. The Cote d'Azur doesn't feel part English anymore which is rather sad.
You can no longer saunter down the Promenade des Anglais and pretend you belong. Quelle dommage!
Roger has always laboured under the delusion that his French neighbours refer to him as a vainqueur.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
Remind me what Finlandization means again…? I guess she doesn’t understand the value of freedom
Classic Brexsplaining.
Of course the Finns are too daft to do democracy!
They vie with NZ for the first full democratic franchise.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
Remind me what Finlandization means again…? I guess she doesn’t understand the value of freedom
Classic Brexsplaining.
Of course the Finns are too daft to do democracy!
They vie with NZ for the first democratic franchise.
Really? They were part of czarist Russia until 1918.
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's? To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up? You do see the issue here?
Shut down entire industries that have no voters. The whole labour force is imported from end to end, the whining is only ever going to be from agribusiness.
I don't know where you are speaking from. But agribusiness votes Tory. Meanwhile, the vast majority of jobs round here are in, or dependent on, agriculture. Nary an imported worker, nor much of a subsidy to be seen. Nor much of a profit. Take away UC and the whole place would go tits up. You're talking early 80's industrial North. Votes Tory too.
You are HYUFD and I claim my £5
The right thing to do is still the right thing to do, even if it affects Tory voters.
Been accused of many things in my time.... Meanwhile. Quite apart from owt else. You think this PM will do what's right above Tory voters? Bless.
True. Boris's followers are simply taking his utterances to their logical, absurd extreme. The great man himself didn't get to where he is today by being quite so impetuous. Besides, Boris has his post-PM after-dinner circuit and directorships to think about - he won't want to be a pariah amongst all those wealthy captains of industry and shire Tories.
If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.
Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.
That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.
Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!
It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work
Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.
Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.
A French minister has accused the British, today, of being ‘obsessed with France’, even as several other French ministers publicly announce plans to blockade Britain, ‘cut off all ties with Britain’, deprive Britain of electricity, ‘punish the British for Brexit’, ‘stop British exports’ - and this is just one day
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
You can watch French TV for days and the UK never features. Too much Telegraph can be misleading.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
But it’s the same on British TV. It looks much more to America (too much, for me) - but also increasingly to Asia, and China
Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.
Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?
The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below
‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’
That’s his pinned tweet. That’s the opinion he has which he thinks is most important right now. Wtf. He’s Finnish. Lol
Hopefully in a few years when Brexit is accepted we can all go back to courteously ignoring each other, like normal neighbours
Finland's ex PM is on the money. There is a change in mood and it's not for the better. The Cote d'Azur doesn't feel part English anymore which is rather sad.
There IS a sadness to Brexit, which I share. The EU has noble origins - the quest for peaceful harmony in Europe. Freedom of Movement was the best thing about it, and I regret the loss. I hope one day a compromise can be found that satisfies all sides and restores it, at least in part
The great tragedy is that Brexit didn’t have to happen. If only a UK government had offered a referendum much earlier, maybe after Maastricht or Lisbon, we’d have said No to further integration, and that compromise would have been found. And we’d probably be a happy but semi-detached country, still associated with the EU and enjoying some of those benefits. And Nice would still feel a little bit English
But no, the British europhiles, in their arrogance, kept forcing more and more integration on us, without seeking our explicit democratic consent, stoking greater and greater anger over decades. Until eventually the final total rupture became inevitable
It is a melancholy story. And the authors are Major, Blair, Heseltine, Brown, Clarke, Cameron, et al. It is the europhiles who created Brexit. Indeed, with their push for a ‘2nd referendum’, they made sure we got the hardest Brexit of all, right at the end. The cherry on their ridiculous cake. It is magnificent irony, fit for the ages
The question you should be asking is whether the UK should even be doing low margin, low grade agriculture work that requires scores of minimum wage imported labour. ...
Hmm.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
I've got the research coming on Monday and I'm open to the idea that the UK should continue to subsidise low margin agriculture on the basis of needing a strategic reserve of agricultural capacity for situations such as a pandemic or another black swan event that causes global shipping to seize. However, other nations have shown a path that walks the line of having that reserve capacity and also not needing heavily subsidised agriculture either with direct cash grants like the CAP or indirect grants like tax credits to make up for low wages. The state's job is to find where that line is, clearly we shouldn't be a nation that farms battery chickens, other countries do it better and imports are all of similar enough quality. The whole industry relies on imported low wage labour and the end product has got razor thin margins and is constantly undercut by imports from Eastern Europe.
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
Shut an entire industry down in areas which elect government MP's? To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up? You do see the issue here?
Shut down entire industries that have no voters. The whole labour force is imported from end to end, the whining is only ever going to be from agribusiness.
It's also not state mandated shutting down, it's just inevitably going to become unviable vs imports of battery chickens without cheap immigrant labour or absolutely huge investment in automation. The latter strikes me as unlikely, instead the business owners will whine about lack of cheap labour and continue to do so until the companies fail and then whine about the companies failing but completely ignore that they just sat there and took profits in the good times and didn't put any investment in.
Farming-wise we could do whatever New Zealand does. They have lots of fertile land, yet hardly any workers, they can’t import cheap labour because they are a billion miles from anywhere, yet they manage to be an agricultural superpower - eg one of the top 2 or 3 dairy exporters in the whole world.
Comments
My daughter turns 7 in a few months and it is both sobering and exciting to think of what kind of person she might be in 20 years time (sobering because of the parental responsibility…).
Was that Reagan? One of my faves anyway
Imagine if several British Cabinet ministers were making daily threats against France. That *would* be obsessive
On topic: 2022? No way.
Now, we may be in the fast lane towards the sunlit uplands but as it stands with the pigs, the fuel shortages, gas prices, likely general inflation, Northern Ireland, UC withdrawal, the near collapse of public trust in the police, I would by no stretch of the imagination say that right this minute the UK is prospering.
Every extra day is a day more of legacy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Midlands_Serious_Crime_Squad
Not sure how that relates to BREXIT, though.
Mwanwhile I give you a rare Englishman who is actually admired.....Dr Rashford
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/oct/08/marcus-rashford-attacks-universal-credit-cut-at-degree-ceremony
Both syndromes drive the sufferer into irrational positions. Many people flatly refused to believe the ‘lab leak hypothesis’ - indeed dismissed it as racist and mad - simply because Trump was one of the first people to espouse it. It’s quite noticeable that, almost as soon as Trump left office, the hypothesis was suddenly revived, and deemed acceptable, and now it is publicly acknowledged as highly likely
That said, Trump genuinely WAS a threat to world stability and American democracy, whereas Brexit was the opposite: a democratic act. So there are massive fundamental differences, too
The safety of people travelling on the Capital’s roads is our number one priority.
We have been granted an injunction this afternoon by the High Court which bans protestors from engaging in activities that obstruct traffic at 14 locations.
https://twitter.com/TfL/status/1446539248782479380?s=20
Though I'm not sure any of it really has much to do with Brexit other than NI and even there it looks as though the EU has folded on the issue and will no longer blockade GB/NI trade.
The promise:
When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. Last year, we exported £7.5 billion worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18 billion. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10 billion.
The reality:
Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the FDF, said: “The return to growth in exports to non-EU markets is welcome news, but it doesn’t make up for the disastrous loss of £2bn in sales to the EU. It clearly demonstrates the serious difficulties manufacturers in our industry continue to face and the urgent need for additional specialist support.”
He said the difficulties now facing British food and drinks manufacturers and farmers were compounded by the lorry driver and warehouse workers shortages, which were choking the supply chain.
“At the same time, we are seeing labour shortages across the UK’s farm-to-fork food and drink supply chain, resulting in empty spaces on UK shop shelves, disruptions to deliveries and decreased production,” Goudie said. “Unless steps are taken to address these issues, the ability of businesses to fulfil vital export orders will be impacted.”
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_food.html
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/02/brexit-uk-food-drink-exports-eu-disastrous-decline
As for the specific point about whether we should be using imported labour for agriculture, yes of course we should. Those jobs are never going to be high skilled, and high paying. That's partly why the Brits won't do them (not the only reason, of course). There's lots of reasons why we want agriculture to continue, and without imported labour we'll simply be exporting those jobs (even more of them) to continental Europe, and importing food which will be of lower quality because of the food miles, at higher prices.
Even in the new Brexit orthodoxy that has suddenly decided to fuck both business and agriculture, it makes no sense to try to push Brits into what will always be low-paying jobs.
Meanwhile a comparison between the home pages, right now, of Le Monde and the Guardian is quite instructive.
Both have about 50 stories. Just two of the stories in Le Monde are definitely about Britain: one is about Covid in the UK, the other about the Saudi-Newcastle takeover. Meanwhile in the Guardian there’s just one story ‘about France’ - but it is expressly about deteriorating Franco-Brit relations. So, about the same?
The UK-French-EU ‘obsession’ is mutual, but it is only happening in social media and only amongst politicians, Eurocrats, and geeks like us. It is a real thing, however. This is the pinned tweet of Finland’s ex prime minister, also mentioned below
‘Reading news about petrol shortages and other supply problems in the UK. Really sad to see what #Brexit is doing to a country that used to be great. Brexit is the biggest mistake a modern nation state has inflicted on itself in recent history. Hope to see an end to this mess.’
https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1441816802837901312?s=21
That’s his pinned tweet. That’s the opinion he has which he thinks is most important right now. Wtf. He’s Finnish. Lol
Hopefully in a few years when Brexit is accepted we can all go back to courteously ignoring each other, like normal neighbours
That's not a political comment as such. Even if you are a Blue Brexiteer you must realise that the sunny uplit lands of your utopia isn't going to come to fruition this side of the next General Election. Even the most optimistic amongst you won't see results for c. 5 years and, realistically, we could be looking at 10 or more. (I'm ignoring those of us who thing this is a permanent one way downhill path).
Once the conference dust has settled and we look at the polls again in around 3 weeks from now the tories will most likely have single digit leads.
But in 2022 we may start to see some more red squares in those right hand margins and in 2023 there may be a lot more red ones than blue.
So this year, for all its ills, may have been the Boris Johnson high water mark. I think part of him suspects the same.
There are, believe it or not, folk who live and work many miles from an alternative source of employment.
The vast majority of these places elect Conservative MP's.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_you_go_again
It's possible that by shutting down that industry the UK will see a net gain in GDP per capita and a net gain in the government's fiscal position, at least that's what the initial research showed which is why I asked the team to look at the whole sector.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJ_bl4dr1po
Brexsplaining?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohHJ8pyKofw
Carter was droning on and on and on and on and on, demonstrating that sometimes you can hold the high ground and completely lose the people.
Kinnock was a windbag too. Starmer needs to be careful.
Here’s a better guide: what had actually changed so many minds so quickly from 2005 to 2007 when Brown bottled it, to underwrite polling showing Tories picking up 90 seats? Not enough is the answer, it needed longer. Brown effectively turned down a 20 seat majority till 2012 just as Boris will turn down at least a 20 seat majority till 2027 if he doesn’t take it before next summer. After that point we can all have an opinion on what happens, but none of us know will know with same confidence that Boris WILL get a five year majority if he takes it before next spring.
And the alternative? How many months left to deliver a lot of promises against background of piss pot finances and weekly economic turmoil, to present the right impression in lead up to an election. You are all missing, this is not a normal five year term, Covid has eaten 2 years, it leaves strategy unit just 3 years to cram in the usual business of five.
For once OGH is wrong, go get the money.
To transfer employment from rural to urban? Levelling up?
You do see the issue here?
(That’s not to say there is yet any evidence that brexit will decrease our food trade deficit, of course.)
Yet another example of the government shooting the country in the foot.
It's also not state mandated shutting down, it's just inevitably going to become unviable vs imports of battery chickens without cheap immigrant labour or absolutely huge investment in automation. The latter strikes me as unlikely, instead the business owners will whine about lack of cheap labour and continue to do so until the companies fail and then whine about the companies failing but completely ignore that they just sat there and took profits in the good times and didn't put any investment in.
Accept that it MAY be OK. If it is great, great. If not, wry shrug. Not your fault or mine.
Meanwhile, the vast majority of jobs round here are in, or dependent on, agriculture. Nary an imported worker, nor much of a subsidy to be seen.
Nor much of a profit. Take away UC and the whole place would go tits up.
You're talking early 80's industrial North.
Votes Tory too.
Otherwise they had every reason to oppose it followed by their elected representatives.
In April 2021: The FDF complain about £2bn in 'lost sales to the EU' in Q1.
In July 2021: The FDF complain about £2bn in 'lost sales to the EU' in H1
In October 2021: The FDF complain about £2bn in 'lost sales to the EU' since Brexit.
There's a pattern there, to quote a famous Australian sex pest "can you tell what it is yet?"
The right thing to do is still the right thing to do, even if it affects Tory voters.
https://www.gtreview.com/magazine/volume-15issue-5/milk-new-zealands-dairy-exports-conquered-world
I've always been OK with the destruction of British agriculture.
[Actually I don't think it will be destroyed, I think we should follow the NZ model and have every confidence British agriculture can thrive - but I'm entirely OK with it being destroyed if I happen to be wrong on that opinion]
Meanwhile.
Quite apart from owt else. You think this PM will do what's right above Tory voters? Bless.
'But comrades, we voted for you! We love dear father Boris..'
It depends which Tory voters you're talking about afterall. "Business" tends to be pro-Tory traditionally but when it came push to shove this PM had the cojones to say "fuck business" when some chose to stand in the way of what needed to be done.
Finlandization is a regrettable consequence of geography and history. No need to use it as an insult.
Any other Tory voters who actually do a day's work to be sacrificed for the pensioners?
No-one was actually enthused by Biden. They were enthused by getting Trump out.
Ultimately though - "the Biden is the EU" is deeply flawed, because choosing Brexit was choosing democracy. And so was choosing Biden.
I resurrected this from the previous thread precisely not to appear to have deliberately ignored it. Because that would have been rude, and try to only be rude on purpose.
1) reporting delays
2) weekly cyclic effects created by the.
3) Reported on vs day of
Even Pesto is catching up with this, I believe.
As for the supply chain issues and especially the fuel problems what exactly do these issues have to do with brexit ?
Brexit is a self inflicted wound for sure but the tendency to blame everything bad on it is tedious and untrue.
As long as the grain fields and meadows with sheep baaing / cattle mooing remain people will be happy with what the British countryside looks like.
Of course the Finns are too daft to do democracy!
Anyway, to be clear on the point, I have no idea who rcs is (and still don't, should I?) but even if I did it doesn't matter.
The great tragedy is that Brexit didn’t have to happen. If only a UK government had offered a referendum much earlier, maybe after Maastricht or Lisbon, we’d have said No to further integration, and that compromise would have been found. And we’d probably be a happy but semi-detached country, still associated with the EU and enjoying some of those benefits. And Nice would still feel a little bit English
But no, the British europhiles, in their arrogance, kept forcing more and more integration on us, without seeking our explicit democratic consent, stoking greater and greater anger over decades. Until eventually the final total rupture became inevitable
It is a melancholy story. And the authors are Major, Blair, Heseltine, Brown, Clarke, Cameron, et al. It is the europhiles who created Brexit. Indeed, with their push for a ‘2nd referendum’, they made sure we got the hardest Brexit of all, right at the end. The cherry on their ridiculous cake. It is magnificent irony, fit for the ages
But it worked because we have a comparative advantage in dairy, and we made the most of it.
Britain doesn’t really have that option.