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Conference season ends with Hung Parliament still betting favourite – politicalbetting.com

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  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2021
    Mrs T vs LotO's

    Red being her Net Satisfaction lead, Blue the Conservatives VI lead

    Pretty much how I remember 83-87 - Unpopular govt, 3m unemployed, family certain Labour are getting back in power all through mid term

    Tory landslide



  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    So true.

    The writer of Animal Farm, of 1984, of The Road to Wigan Pier, of Down & Out in London and Paris, of Homage to Catalonia, was clearly a borderline idiot.

    I doubt he could even tie his own shoelaces.
    Not a cracking point. It is universally conceded that Tennyson was as dim as a Toc H lamp, for instance, without that affecting his status as a great poet. Orwell could say things unbelievably lucidly, but they weren't necessarily very complicated or interesting things. It's not an accident that what you list are o level rather than a level texts. I challenge you to point to a really complex argument put forward by him.
  • Leon said:

    Four unexpected consequences of the End of Cash:

    1 It gets much harder to evade or cheat the taxman. My local Moldovan car wash is still clinging on to cash (I wonder why) but the others are reluctantly succumbing to the contactless machine

    2 Tipping. We've discussed this before. But what will happen to tipping in a tipping mad culture like, say, the USA? If no one carries dollar bills barkeepers will have to be given a proper wage. Finally

    3 Homeless people. They are already going crazy. Begging doesn't work any more

    4. Street performers. The end of busking
    #2 Tipping can now be done electronically. The issue with that is #1 though, tips were always supposed to be declared to the taxman previously but as if anyone did! If the company is paying you tips via a card machine then while you'll get every penny paid to you by the company, it will be with the taxes deducted I'm assuming.

    #4 This has rather moved online nowadays hasn't it? Plus you can get paid for views via YouTube etc - no idea how this compares to busking.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    rpjs said:

    Agreed, but I am arguing with the position that Scotland’s powers fall into the “everything is permitted that is not specifically forbidden” category, rather than the reverse which indeed was the case for all bodies in the UK below Parliament prior to the early part of this century.

    I found a Parliamentary briefing paper that describes the general power of competence broadly as allowing local authorities to do “anything an individual can do”. As an individual I can ask anyone whether Scotland should be an independent state, so why can’t the Scottish government?
    IshmaelZ said:

    Well, OK, if you think the Scotland Act confers specific and limited vires which the Parliament cannot act ultra where does it do that? Contrast the lga 1972 which exhaustively lists the functions of a la.
    Reading this discussion with considerable interest. Much better than going on about the supremacy of Westminster and generations.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Leon said:

    Four unexpected consequences of the End of Cash:

    1 It gets much harder to evade or cheat the taxman. My local Moldovan car wash is still clinging on to cash (I wonder why) but the others are reluctantly succumbing to the contactless machine

    2 Tipping. We've discussed this before. But what will happen to tipping in a tipping mad culture like, say, the USA? If no one carries dollar bills barkeepers will have to be given a proper wage. Finally

    3 Homeless people. They are already going crazy. Begging doesn't work any more

    4. Street performers. The end of busking
    On 2, in the US now it is common for each waiter and bar person to have their own card reader, and when you insert your card, it automatically gives you the option of 25%, 20%, 15% tip so you don't even have to calculate it, just press which button you want.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    rcs1000 said:

    I'd argue that's one of four factors:

    1. Globalisation
    2. Automation
    3. Ageing populations
    4. Low interest rates that pushed up asset prices, and raised the cost of living for the ordinary people.

    Between them, they have stuffed everyone who isn't in the top quartile.
    To all those you also have to add the defeat of trade unions, which tilted the balance of power between workers and bosses, and so reduced the share of profits that went to workers.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    kinabalu said:

    Imagine there's only one currency. It isn't hard to do. No need for hedging or conversion. No FX desks too. Imagine all the traders doing something more worthwhile, you oo oo oo oo, you may say I'm a ...

    Interesting question as to whether the single currency boosted trade and wealth creation in the EZ. If it didn't I see little point in it unless one believes it was a devious tool to advance a Federal Europe.
    Replace Federal Europe with German exports and I think you're closer to the mark.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    rpjs said:

    I rarely carry cash here in the US, but when I do it’s because I expect to be tipping. That said, almost all tipping contexts here can be added to the card charge, but I prefer to tip in cash to ensure the recipient gets it.

    As to busking, my wife teaches at a language school and she was told by her Chinese students that buskers in China show QR codes that you scan and tip them through.
    I have an acquaintance who is a professional busker in the EU. Very talented. Used to make great money, now makes OK money. Covid hasn't helped, of course, but he also blames the decline on the disappearance of cash

    I was quite happy to toss a pound coin in the cap of a skilled guitarist on a street corner. They add to the gaiety of nations. But now I never have pound coins. And am I ever going to tap their contactless machine or scan a QR code? I doubt it
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    TimT said:

    On 2, in the US now it is common for each waiter and bar person to have their own card reader, and when you insert your card, it automatically gives you the option of 25%, 20%, 15% tip so you don't even have to calculate it, just press which button you want.
    Not here in NY. I’ve yet to find a restaurant etc where they bring the reader to your table, European-style. They still whisk your card off who-knows-where and bring you back a paper slip sign and put the tip amount on.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    TimT said:

    My own disillusionment with the EU began when I realized that the principle of subsidiarity was not really respected at all and would never be as it is at odds with the human nature of (EC) bureaucrats. Subsidiarity was and is the way to square the circle on national vs EU sovereignty. Without it, I go for national sovereignty.
    Can subsidiarity co-exist with monetary union iyo?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    TimT said:

    The UK COVID dashboard has updated its vaccine uptake graphic, but in a way that makes it inherently understate the rate of uptake in those eligible, in that the denominator is now the 12+ population, whereas not all 12-16 year-olds are eligible.

    It is almost as though someone is intent on keeping uptake figures low - i.e. 90% for 1 dose and 80% for double-dosed.

    Which 12-16 are not eligible, exactly?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    I have enormous respect for the UK Supreme Court which when you see what’s happened to the US Supreme Court , we should be hugely relieved that judges aren’t politically appointed in the UK . It was very disturbing to see some within the Tory party threatening the court just because they made judgements the government didn’t like .
  • To all those you also have to add the defeat of trade unions, which tilted the balance of power between workers and bosses, and so reduced the share of profits that went to workers.
    That was a self inflicted wound by the unions.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    "And not only the characters but the whole atmosphere of both Gem and Magnet has been preserved unchanged, partly by means of very elaborate stylization. The stories in the Magnet are signed ‘Frank Richards’ and those in the Gem, ‘Martin Clifford’, but a series lasting thirty years could hardly be the work of the same person every week.(1) Consequently they have to be written in a style that is easily imitated — an extraordinary, artificial, repetitive style, quite different from anything else now existing in English literature..."

    Orwell on Boys weeklies. The joke being that Frank Richards and Martin Clifford weren't in fact just individuals, they were the same individual.

    Not very bright.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010

    Which 12-16 are not eligible, exactly?
    About 95% of them for the second dose.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202
    Polish court rules that EU law is not compatible with the country's constitution and asserts primacy of Polish law, and says EU cannot intervene in Polish judicial system.

    This is a major escalation of the rule of law crisis between Warsaw and Brussels


    https://twitter.com/henryjfoy/status/1446134779070586880
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,257
    IshmaelZ said:

    Not a cracking point. It is universally conceded that Tennyson was as dim as a Toc H lamp, for instance, without that affecting his status as a great poet. Orwell could say things unbelievably lucidly, but they weren't necessarily very complicated or interesting things. It's not an accident that what you list are o level rather than a level texts. I challenge you to point to a really complex argument put forward by him.
    Profound truths may actually be quite simple.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Carnyx said:

    Reading this discussion with considerable interest. Much better than going on about the supremacy of Westminster and generations.
    As far as I can see it is merely a discussion as to whether Holyrood can hold a referendum which Westminster would ignore the result of anyway or not.

    Either way it would have no affect on the Union which would remain reserved to Westminster to decide
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited October 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Can subsidiarity co-exist with monetary union iyo?
    Yes. It's called the USA.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    kinabalu said:

    Imagine there's only one currency. It isn't hard to do. No need for hedging or conversion. No FX desks too. Imagine all the traders doing something more worthwhile, you oo oo oo oo, you may say I'm a ...

    Interesting question as to whether the single currency boosted trade and wealth creation in the EZ. If it didn't I see little point in it unless one believes it was a devious tool to advance a Federal Europe.
    The euro was both those things

    It was hoped that it would increase trade and growth. Did it? Maybe a bit, but not much, and definitely not as much as hoped


    "There is little evidence that the creation of the euro has had an effect on trade between the original members"

    https://personal.lse.ac.uk/TENREYRO/euro.pdf


    At the same time the euro was a geopolitical push to Ever Closer Union in the EU. The French demanded it (is is said) in return for allowing Germany to reunify. The price Germany had to pay was giving up the Mark - or sharing its strength with the other member states. Ironically, Germany probably benefited more than any other EU state from the euro, as they shared the DM at a low rate, locking in a permanent trade advantage
  • Polish court rules that EU law is not compatible with the country's constitution and asserts primacy of Polish law, and says EU cannot intervene in Polish judicial system.

    This is a major escalation of the rule of law crisis between Warsaw and Brussels


    https://twitter.com/henryjfoy/status/1446134779070586880

    The EU appear to be fighting quite a few wild fires at present with NI protocol, France and now Poland

    Who next ?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sean_F said:

    Profound truths may actually be quite simple.
    Agreed absolutely. But the rare and excellent ability to pronounce them is not the same thing as intelligence. There's no particular reason that Shakespeare would be better than you or me at writing a Times leader or advancing a complex case in court.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,411

    The EU appear to be fighting quite a few wild fires at present with NI protocol, France and now Poland

    Who next ?
    True but I think you're ignoring Hungary, Switzerland, the Balkans, Russia and quite a few others.

    One day it'll dawn on the EU that maybe its arrogance and inflexibility is the main reason it has bad relations with all its neighbours, benign or malign. But I won't hold my breath.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Leon said:

    "Subsidiarity" is indeed derived from Catholic theology


    "The development of the concept of subsidiarity has roots in the natural law philosophy of Thomas Aquinas, and was mediated by the social scientific theories of Luigi Taparelli, SJ, in his 1840–43 natural law treatise on the human person in society.[2] In that work, Taparelli established the criteria of just social order, which he referred to as "hypotactical right" and which came to be termed subsidiarity following German influences.[3]

    "The term subsidiarity as employed in Catholic social thought was inspired by the teaching of Wilhelm Emmanuel von Ketteler, who served as Bishop of Mainz in the mid- to late 19th century.[4] It is most well-known, however, from its subsequent incorporation into Pope Pius XI’s encyclical Quadragesimo anno. "

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subsidiarity_(Catholicism)


    Just another way the EU was essentially alien to us
    Talking of the Catholic Church today is the feast of Our Lady of the Rosary, established by Pope Pius Vth to commemorate his naval forces victory at the Battle of Lepanto, 450 years ago today in 1571
    https://twitter.com/cnalive/status/1446037855944515586?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    Leon said:

    Four unexpected consequences of the End of Cash:

    1 It gets much harder to evade or cheat the taxman. My local Moldovan car wash is still clinging on to cash (I wonder why) but the others are reluctantly succumbing to the contactless machine

    2 Tipping. We've discussed this before. But what will happen to tipping in a tipping mad culture like, say, the USA? If no one carries dollar bills barkeepers will have to be given a proper wage. Finally

    3 Homeless people. They are already going crazy. Begging doesn't work any more

    4. Street performers. The end of busking
    5. Much harder for the feckless to spend money on feckless things without their partner finding out.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Polish court rules that EU law is not compatible with the country's constitution and asserts primacy of Polish law, and says EU cannot intervene in Polish judicial system.

    This is a major escalation of the rule of law crisis between Warsaw and Brussels


    https://twitter.com/henryjfoy/status/1446134779070586880

    Fascinating. At the same time we have Barnier in France demanding basically the same thing

    Is the EU fracturing in some fundamental way? You can certainly hear crackles in the ice
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202
    IshmaelZ said:

    Agreed absolutely. But the rare and excellent ability to pronounce them is not the same thing as intelligence. There's no particular reason that Shakespeare would be better than you or me at writing a Times leader or advancing a complex case in court.
    So writing a Times leader is more proof of intelligence than writing Hamlet?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Fishing said:

    True but I think you're ignoring Hungary, Switzerland, the Balkans, Russia and quite a few others.

    One day it'll dawn on the EU that maybe its arrogance and inflexibility is the main reason it has bad relations with all its neighbours, benign or malign. But I won't hold my breath.
    Not to mention the US and Aus
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited October 2021

    So writing a Times leader is more proof of intelligence than writing Hamlet?
    A chimpanzee is statistically far more likely to write a Times leader than [edit] to write Hamlet.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    So writing a Times leader is more proof of intelligence than writing Hamlet?
    Analytical vs creative is not a useful distinction for you?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,411
    edited October 2021
    Leon said:

    The euro was both those things

    It was hoped that it would increase trade and growth. Did it? Maybe a bit, but not much, and definitely not as much as hoped

    No, it devastated growth, especially in southern Europe, as the microeconomic advantages of trade facilitation were swamped by the macroeconomic disadvantages of different countries having the same monetary and exchange rate policies.

    As predicted by virtually every reputable economist.

    And thoroughly ignored by the EU establishment, Ken Clarke, Tony Blair, Nick Clegg and many others.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,196
    edited October 2021
    kle4 said:

    It was a dispiriting time. I was still on the leave train at the time, and it seemed completely appropriate that parliament was sovereign on that matter. And while parliament did then spend years tying itself in knots with some seeking to reverse the whole business one way or another, as the vote on Article 50 showed there was no danger to that approach as it passed overwhelmingly.

    There was some similar fudged thinking with performative outrage about the Queen acceding to Boris's prorogation request. I was to believe people outraged about her doing it as he asked for it actually wanted her to have the real (not just theoretical) ability to reject the wishes of the PM and/or Parliament?
    I don't like Miller and she was a lying &$£~# claiming that her actions were not about stopping Brexit. As all her subsequent actions and comments showed, that was clearly her aim.

    But.

    I am glad she took the action she did and glad that the SC ruled in favour of Parliament and also against Prorogation. It was for Parliament to decide how we left the EU, not the Government. Giving power back to our elected Parliament was supposed to be one of the key points of Brexit. In the same way the Henry VIII powers were and are an affront to democracy. Boris has tried very hard to make Brexit a hollow victory. Thankfully for me at least he has not succeeded. Though I will only truly feel good about it when he is gone.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    IshmaelZ said:

    Agreed absolutely. But the rare and excellent ability to pronounce them is not the same thing as intelligence. There's no particular reason that Shakespeare would be better than you or me at writing a Times leader or advancing a complex case in court.
    lol


    Personally, I think the ability to write, say, "Hamlet", "Othello", the Sonnets, "King Lear", "Macbeth", "A Midsummer Might's Dream" and "Romeo and Juliet" is probably a sign of greater intelligence than the ability to "write a Times leader" or "advance a complex case in court"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Leon said:

    Fascinating. At the same time we have Barnier in France demanding basically the same thing

    Is the EU fracturing in some fundamental way? You can certainly hear crackles in the ice
    Poland is outside the inner core of the EU not being in the Eurozone.

    If France started to reclaim powers then that might be more of a challenge but that would require a Macron defeat next year which looks unlikely
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2021
    Carnyx said:

    A chimpanzee is statistically far more likely to write a Times leader than Hamlet.
    That's not a fair fight - Hamlet died centuries before The Times was first published!
  • IshmaelZ said:

    "And not only the characters but the whole atmosphere of both Gem and Magnet has been preserved unchanged, partly by means of very elaborate stylization. The stories in the Magnet are signed ‘Frank Richards’ and those in the Gem, ‘Martin Clifford’, but a series lasting thirty years could hardly be the work of the same person every week.(1) Consequently they have to be written in a style that is easily imitated — an extraordinary, artificial, repetitive style, quite different from anything else now existing in English literature..."

    Orwell on Boys weeklies. The joke being that Frank Richards and Martin Clifford weren't in fact just individuals, they were the same individual.

    Not very bright.

    Run that one past me again.
  • Fishing said:

    True but I think you're ignoring Hungary, Switzerland, the Balkans, Russia and quite a few others.

    One day it'll dawn on the EU that maybe its arrogance and inflexibility is the main reason it has bad relations with all its neighbours, benign or malign. But I won't hold my breath.
    Actually, those were my next but I did not want to cause a meltdown with some of our more excitable pro EU posters
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    Fishing said:

    No, it devastated growth, especially in southern Europe, as the microeconomic advantages of trade facilitation were swamped by the macroeconomic disadvantages of different countries having the same monetary and exchange rate policies.

    As predicted by virtually every reputable economist.
    Those countries that survived by allowing their currency to depreciate slightly against the Deutsche Mark, (so Greece, Italy, even France) have suffered because they've never been in a position to catch up with German Productivity.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    isam said:

    That's not a fair fight - Hamlet died centuries before The Times was first published!
    Ah. Edited.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    kinabalu said:

    5. Much harder for the feckless to spend money on feckless things without their partner finding out.
    Indeed. I've just realised, in addition, that the end of cash is probably going to be great for Treasuries. So much tax evasion becomes impossible, black economies will shrink, tax revenues will surge
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,708
    Dan Bloom
    @danbloom1
    ·
    3h
    Tory minister Nadine Dorries claims Universal Credit cut won't push a single person into poverty
  • TimT said:

    Not to mention the US and Aus
    And the energy price crisis and dependency on Russian gas
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,507
    Pulpstar said:

    About 95% of them for the second dose.
    Yes, if 2nd doses are based against 12+ rather than 18+ that's wrong on current vaccination policy.

    To get it a bit better on the one block chart, should be a 2nd dose, single dose, 1st dose split. Then if they do decide to second dose the youngest cohorts, they can absorb those back in to 1st dose stats.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Dan Bloom
    @danbloom1
    ·
    3h
    Tory minister Nadine Dorries claims Universal Credit cut won't push a single person into poverty

    Rather reminiscent of Slab leader Jim Murphy and his promise that he wouldn't lose a single constituency to the SNP.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    Fishing said:

    No, it devastated growth, especially in southern Europe, as the microeconomic advantages of trade facilitation were swamped by the macroeconomic disadvantages of different countries having the same monetary and exchange rate policies.

    As predicted by virtually every reputable economist.

    And thoroughly ignored by the EU establishment, Ken Clarke, Tony Blair, Nick Clegg and many others.
    Fair. I was possibly overkind to the euro-creators.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    TimT said:

    Yes. It's called the USA.
    But surely France has more autonomy than Texas. Or does it? Interesting question to ponder. I'd have thought it does.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Leon said:

    Fascinating. At the same time we have Barnier in France demanding basically the same thing

    Is the EU fracturing in some fundamental way? You can certainly hear crackles in the ice
    Sign of global warning if you're hearing crackling in the ice
    Leon said:

    lol


    Personally, I think the ability to write, say, "Hamlet", "Othello", the Sonnets, "King Lear", "Macbeth", "A Midsummer Might's Dream" and "Romeo and Juliet" is probably a sign of greater intelligence than the ability to "write a Times leader" or "advance a complex case in court"
    Indeed, the few court lawyers I know all stress how presenting a good case is really just storytelling. And simplifying down to just one or two points, not the entire kitchen sink. But what would Shakespeare know about storytelling?
  • Dan Bloom
    @danbloom1
    ·
    3h
    Tory minister Nadine Dorries claims Universal Credit cut won't push a single person into poverty

    I am interested to know just how the 500 million awarded to councils is to work, as that is not a small sum of money even if it is 1 months UC uplift
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,507

    Dan Bloom
    @danbloom1
    ·
    3h
    Tory minister Nadine Dorries claims Universal Credit cut won't push a single person into poverty

    Where the single person she had in mind was Michael Gove.
  • https://www.britainelects.com/2021/10/07/previewing-the-six-council-by-elections-of-07-oct-2021/

    Andrew Teale has published his write up of today's by-elections, including the infamous Cranleigh East ward.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    lol


    Personally, I think the ability to write, say, "Hamlet", "Othello", the Sonnets, "King Lear", "Macbeth", "A Midsummer Might's Dream" and "Romeo and Juliet" is probably a sign of greater intelligence than the ability to "write a Times leader" or "advance a complex case in court"
    And I wouldn't call it intelligence.

    Look again at this belly flop

    "And not only the characters but the whole atmosphere of both Gem and Magnet has been preserved unchanged, partly by means of very elaborate stylization. The stories in the Magnet are signed ‘Frank Richards’ and those in the Gem, ‘Martin Clifford’, but a series lasting thirty years could hardly be the work of the same person every week.(1) Consequently they have to be written in a style that is easily imitated — an extraordinary, artificial, repetitive style, quite different from anything else now existing in English literature..."

    Orwell on Boys weeklies. The joke being that Frank Richards and Martin Clifford weren't in fact just individuals, they were the same individual.

    The more distinctive the style is, the stronger evidence that is for multiple authorship? Really?

    Plus, he could have asked someone. Not a state secret.
  • HYUFD said:

    Poland is outside the inner core of the EU not being in the Eurozone.

    If France started to reclaim powers then that might be more of a challenge but that would require a Macron defeat next year which looks unlikely
    You don't think Poland challenging the EU legitimacy is not an important moment, really
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TimT said:

    Sign of global warning if you're hearing crackling in the ice Indeed, the few court lawyers I know all stress how presenting a good case is really just storytelling. And simplifying down to just one or two points, not the entire kitchen sink. But what would Shakespeare know about storytelling?
    I am a former court lawyer, and it isn't.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited October 2021

    My dad employed lots of labourers. He preferred paying them by cheque, as it meant not dealing with cash. About a third to a half wanted cash, paid weekly. Not because they did not trust my dad (some had worked with him for decades); but because if they got paid by cheque, their spouses/gfs might know what they're earning.

    Even more oddly. the reason some wanted paying weekly is that they knew they'd spend their money in five or six days, knowing they'd have a lean day before payday. If they got paid monthly, they'd have a lean week or two. This wasn't due to poor pay (my dad paid above the average because of the type of work); it was because they could not budget. Some would leave site after payday, go to the nearest pub (a large site had one just outside), and spend much of their earnings.

    I wonder how such people are going to manage now.
    Also, out in the countryside the banks have been steadily closing their branches. My local burgh had around 4 banks and/or building societies plus the GPO for most of my life. Now there is only one bank and the PO.

    And Tesco Bank is shutting down current accounts.

    Edit: cvashpoints going steadily down, too.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    If Poland doesn’t like EU law then it should leave together with Hungary . They seem happy to take EU funds but not the responsibilities that go with that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,708
    James Melville
    @JamesMelville
    ·
    2h
    Sweden 🇸🇪 has dropped to 50th in the ranking of total Covid deaths per capita since the pandemic began. Almost every other country ranked above Sweden had lockdowns, mask mandates and draconian restrictions. Sweden meanwhile, largely kept its society open and freedoms intact.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    IshmaelZ said:

    I am a former court lawyer, and it isn't.
    What is it, in your view? How do you sway a jury? And, no, I won't accept facts and points of law as the answer. They may be a sine qua non, but perhaps not even that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Run that one past me again.
    Orwell was wrong about a thing.

    As opposed to the interesting fact that in every country to have emerged from authoritarian/totalitarian rule, it turned out that "Animal Farm" and "1984" were read by dissidents, often as a banned book. Said dissidents uniformly reported the works as having spoken to the truth of their situation.

    I wonder what Orwell would have thought - that he had written Goldstein's book, made it real.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,708
    nico679 said:

    If Poland doesn’t like EU law then it should leave together with Hungary . They seem happy to take EU funds but not the responsibilities that go with that.

    I'm not sure I understand why they haven't been thrown out.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    IshmaelZ said:

    And I wouldn't call it intelligence.

    Look again at this belly flop

    "And not only the characters but the whole atmosphere of both Gem and Magnet has been preserved unchanged, partly by means of very elaborate stylization. The stories in the Magnet are signed ‘Frank Richards’ and those in the Gem, ‘Martin Clifford’, but a series lasting thirty years could hardly be the work of the same person every week.(1) Consequently they have to be written in a style that is easily imitated — an extraordinary, artificial, repetitive style, quite different from anything else now existing in English literature..."

    Orwell on Boys weeklies. The joke being that Frank Richards and Martin Clifford weren't in fact just individuals, they were the same individual.

    The more distinctive the style is, the stronger evidence that is for multiple authorship? Really?

    Plus, he could have asked someone. Not a state secret.
    Are you OK? Sincere question


    You're generally a wise and astute commenter but you're advancing some odd arguments

    I've heard the "Beatles are crap" argument before. The broadcaster Robert Elms use to assert it (he's an acquaintance) he now blushes and thinks it was an embarrassing pose. But fair enough, it's an argument

    Saying that "Orwell is not very bright" on the basis of a couple of odd paragraphs about comics, when you have the overwhelming evidence of "1984", "Animal Farm" and "Homage to Catalonia" etc etc to set against them, is simply peculiar. To be frank

    Orwell wrote two of the most important novels in history. His name now summarises entire political systems, because he had insights which become more prescient over time. The word "Orwellian" is chillingly apt when you look at modern China and the new surveillance state.

    Orwell was very definitely a clever man. I don't believe that can be honestly disputed
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TimT said:

    What is it, in your view? How do you sway a jury? And, no, I won't accept facts and points of law as the answer. They may be a sine qua non, but perhaps not even that.
    Never done juries.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    edited October 2021
    nico679 said:

    I have enormous respect for the UK Supreme Court which when you see what’s happened to the US Supreme Court , we should be hugely relieved that judges aren’t politically appointed in the UK . It was very disturbing to see some within the Tory party threatening the court just because they made judgements the government didn’t like .

    We definitely saw some of that after the prorogation case (as a non-expert I was surprised it was unanimous as while the government's argument may not have been liked, the argument seemed reasonably argued), made even sillier (were it not serious) by all the judges being labelled as bitter remainers, even the ones who had sided with the government in the Article 50 case.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    I'm not sure I understand why they haven't been thrown out.
    It takes all other 26 to do so, and Hungary and Poland have each other's back.
  • eek said:

    1) taxi drivers saw their pay increase by more than any other sector of the economy since 2010 (guess why)
    4) A lot of buskers have card machines set at a small amount, it's not perfect but better than nothing.
    went to the RAF museum up at Cosford recently, near the entrance they had a small set of card machines set up for £5 and £10 contactless donations. Can see buskers following suit but perhaps not beggars, vagrants and other down and outs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,708
    Pro_Rata said:

    Where the single person she had in mind was Michael Gove.
    Dunno, nightclubs are pretty expensive places to go drinking in.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    edited October 2021
    TimT said:

    Replace Federal Europe with German exports and I think you're closer to the mark.
    Yes, I've heard that theory a few times. A tool by which the mighty D could prosper via a permanently underpriced (for them) currency. Although apparently (Leon says) they didn't want it, the French did. So this boon to German exports would be a consequence of the Euro rather than its purpose. I'd say if the Euro wasn't done for streamlining trade & finance reasons, ie to make the Single Market really swing, it most likely was done for idealistic "no more war" binding nations together reasons. Or a mixture of the two.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    My dad employed lots of labourers. He preferred paying them by cheque, as it meant not dealing with cash. About a third to a half wanted cash, paid weekly. Not because they did not trust my dad (some had worked with him for decades); but because if they got paid by cheque, their spouses/gfs might know what they're earning.

    Even more oddly. the reason some wanted paying weekly is that they knew they'd spend their money in five or six days, knowing they'd have a lean day before payday. If they got paid monthly, they'd have a lean week or two. This wasn't due to poor pay (my dad paid above the average because of the type of work); it was because they could not budget. Some would leave site after payday, go to the nearest pub (a large site had one just outside), and spend much of their earnings.

    I wonder how such people are going to manage now.
    The alt-banks are queuing up. They make money by reducing their overheads to a near zero as is practical. The marginal cost of a customer is tiny. So even someone with £20 on deposit is profitable for them.
  • nico679 said:

    If Poland doesn’t like EU law then it should leave together with Hungary . They seem happy to take EU funds but not the responsibilities that go with that.

    You have gone all @HYUFD
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,471

    You don't think Poland challenging the EU legitimacy is not an important moment, really
    There is a banana skin for the UK in the goings on in Eastern Europe at the moment. There are a handful of somewhat unsavoury political regimes currently in an uneasy relationship with the EU of which they are part (but highly unlikely to leave given the economic benefits they get from membership). They may well come looking for allies in their neighbourhood to support them against the big bosses in Brussels. Russia is one obvious place to turn for some, though clearly not for Poland, and the other is the UK.

    I could see our government getting sucked in as a bit of a convenient pawn in this game. There is no benefit to be had from this for Britain, none at all, except some short term frisson to be had from "sticking it to the man".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Leon said:

    lol


    Personally, I think the ability to write, say, "Hamlet", "Othello", the Sonnets, "King Lear", "Macbeth", "A Midsummer Might's Dream" and "Romeo and Juliet" is probably a sign of greater intelligence than the ability to "write a Times leader" or "advance a complex case in court"
    Surely the problem is how we judge intelligence at all - people can write great plays, or advance complex cases in court, in supremely intelligent ways, whilst being complete and utter duffers in some other things that far less able people are able to grasp. Intelligence can be pretty narrowly focused, and so particularly for historical people how to judge general intellect?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    nico679 said:

    I have enormous respect for the UK Supreme Court which when you see what’s happened to the US Supreme Court , we should be hugely relieved that judges aren’t politically appointed in the UK . It was very disturbing to see some within the Tory party threatening the court just because they made judgements the government didn’t like .

    Still an English court deciding Scottish Law matters, all wrong and very colonial.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Run that one past me again.
    We have two long running stories in the Gem and the Magnet, by Martin Clifford and Frank Richards respectively. Orwell thinks each name hides a team of dozens of writers. In fact every word of both stories was written by the same bloke, Charles Hamilton.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422

    I'm not sure I understand why they haven't been thrown out.
    Because they hold all the cards.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    IshmaelZ said:

    I am a former court lawyer, and it isn't.
    Screenwriters have lied to us for decades! I wonder why storytellers might suggest a court case it just about storytelling?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,708

    I am interested to know just how the 500 million awarded to councils is to work, as that is not a small sum of money even if it is 1 months UC uplift
    "through small grants to meet daily needs such as food, clothing, and utilities." (Government press release).

    So, means tested.

    Sounds like it will create a heck of a lot of hoop jumping and local form filling and assessment, compared to the payment of a basic benefit.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    kinabalu said:

    Yes, I've heard that theory a few times. A tool by which the mighty D could prosper via a permanently underpriced (for them) currency. Although apparently (Leon says) they didn't want it, the French did. So this boon to German exports would be a consequence of the Euro rather than its purpose. I'd say if the Euro wasn't done for streamlining trade & finance reasons, ie to make the Single Market really swing, it most likely was done for idealistic "no more war" binding nations together reasons. Or a mixture of the two.
    That is mostly true. The question is whether Germany just got lucky with the low rate at which they shared the DM, or whether they saw the opportunity, and the others didn't realise, in their eagerness to have the Bundesbank on board

    The motives for the euro were definitely idealistic - another step to a united Europe - but as with so many of these steps, it was botched, quite badly. Greece, for one, is permanently damaged as a result
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    edited October 2021
    HYUFD said:

    As far as I can see it is merely a discussion as to whether Holyrood can hold a referendum which Westminster would ignore the result of anyway or not.

    Either way it would have no affect on the Union which would remain reserved to Westminster to decide
    At least we're all clear now that it is not a union of consent.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274

    went to the RAF museum up at Cosford recently, near the entrance they had a small set of card machines set up for £5 and £10 contactless donations. Can see buskers following suit but perhaps not beggars, vagrants and other down and outs.
    For reasons which are too tedious to explain my wife and I took taxis to and from the local hospital this morning. To the hospital was a local chap, quite well known to us, with a card machine. Charge £20. On the way home someone from a company based near the hospital, with no card machine. Charge £18. Which of course, ended up as £20!
    Although, to be fair, he did offer me the coins.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    My dad employed lots of labourers. He preferred paying them by cheque, as it meant not dealing with cash. About a third to a half wanted cash, paid weekly. Not because they did not trust my dad (some had worked with him for decades); but because if they got paid by cheque, their spouses/gfs might know what they're earning.

    Even more oddly. the reason some wanted paying weekly is that they knew they'd spend their money in five or six days, knowing they'd have a lean day before payday. If they got paid monthly, they'd have a lean week or two. This wasn't due to poor pay (my dad paid above the average because of the type of work); it was because they could not budget. Some would leave site after payday, go to the nearest pub (a large site had one just outside), and spend much of their earnings.

    I wonder how such people are going to manage now.
    I was chatting to someone on Sunday who used to work at Ladbrokes during the summer holidays (quiet branch in Durham). She was asked once to work in Sunderland and on their quiet counter in 1 Saturday she took £3,000 (this is the early 80s).

    She also had multiple stories of people betting (and losing) the entire wage packet...

    Reason it came up was we were talking to someone who works at Tombola who have a rule of £250 a week max (preferably less) and now have a 24/7 welfare team to refer cases to.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    We have two long running stories in the Gem and the Magnet, by Martin Clifford and Frank Richards respectively. Orwell thinks each name hides a team of dozens of writers. In fact every word of both stories was written by the same bloke, Charles Hamilton.
    Got it. Thanks. But from Googling I see that Charles Hamilton is in the Guinness Book of Records as the most prolific writer in history, so perhaps Orwell could be forgiven for assuming that this vast output was the work of many hands writing under the same in-house pseudonyms.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Are you OK? Sincere question


    You're generally a wise and astute commenter but you're advancing some odd arguments

    I've heard the "Beatles are crap" argument before. The broadcaster Robert Elms use to assert it (he's an acquaintance) he now blushes and thinks it was an embarrassing pose. But fair enough, it's an argument

    Saying that "Orwell is not very bright" on the basis of a couple of odd paragraphs about comics, when you have the overwhelming evidence of "1984", "Animal Farm" and "Homage to Catalonia" etc etc to set against them, is simply peculiar. To be frank

    Orwell wrote two of the most important novels in history. His name now summarises entire political systems, because he had insights which become more prescient over time. The word "Orwellian" is chillingly apt when you look at modern China and the new surveillance state.

    Orwell was very definitely a clever man. I don't believe that can be honestly disputed
    I'm fine, not even drunk yet. We do seem to be going round the houses about what intelligence means though. I think world class literary genius is compatible with being not overly bright, and pointing to specific examples of lack of brightness. Not just the Magnet thing, also the unconscious English nationalism in the anti nationalism piece. You can add in the wholly misjudged attempt to rehabilitate Kipling if you like.

    And I genuinely don't like the Beatles.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    kinabalu said:

    But surely France has more autonomy than Texas. Or does it? Interesting question to ponder. I'd have thought it does.
    Legally the US states remain sovereign, but they are constrained by the federal Constitution in ways that the EU member states aren’t, although practically things like the ECHR (which of course is not an EU institution) have a similar effect in regard to fundamental rights.

    But also practically, a lot of the power of the states is constrained by the federal government’s economic and financial power. For instance the drinking age in the US is 21 in every state, but that is strictly a state power and the states could set it to whatever they want. But if they set it to under 21, the feds would pull all highway funding from that state, and no state could afford to fund highways themselves.

    The EU does indeed redistribute development funds from rich to poor states, but it has no revenue of its own to hand out and the development funds are orders of magnitude less significant than federal subsidies are to the states in the US.

    If the EU really does want to become a superstate, then becoming the major source of revenue for its member states is what it should be doing.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited October 2021
    Leon said:

    That is mostly true. The question is whether Germany just got lucky with the low rate at which they shared the DM, or whether they saw the opportunity, and the others didn't realise, in their eagerness to have the Bundesbank on board

    The motives for the euro were definitely idealistic - another step to a united Europe - but as with so many of these steps, it was botched, quite badly. Greece, for one, is permanently damaged as a result
    I pretty much accept that as how things went down. But don't forget that national interests can be pursued under cover of high-minded ideal. These are the same folks who, with no fisheries to speak of, created the Common Fisheries Policy during accession talks with the UK, Ireland, Denmark and Norway - i.e. almost the entire Eastern (north) Atlantic fishing grounds.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    TimT said:

    On 2, in the US now it is common for each waiter and bar person to have their own card reader, and when you insert your card, it automatically gives you the option of 25%, 20%, 15% tip so you don't even have to calculate it, just press which button you want.
    When I was in Vegas, the options were (and I'm not kidding): 20%, 30% and 40%!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    IshmaelZ said:

    I'm fine, not even drunk yet. We do seem to be going round the houses about what intelligence means though. I think world class literary genius is compatible with being not overly bright, and pointing to specific examples of lack of brightness. Not just the Magnet thing, also the unconscious English nationalism in the anti nationalism piece. You can add in the wholly misjudged attempt to rehabilitate Kipling if you like.

    And I genuinely don't like the Beatles.
    It seems you believe that there is one kind of intelligence. I thought the world had moved on from that idea.
  • Great, now being softened up for 3 years of council tax rises. This high wage economy better be fukkin good.
  • I don't usually go for strong language, but this cut really is the single most revolting political act since the Tories won power in 2010. Dressed up as "reversing an uplift", whereas in fact inflation and living costs are spiralling very significantly higher than it was introduced ; economically idiotic, in extracting demand from the economy just at the moment it heads into the most uncertain period of last few years ; and crowning it all, morally dishonest, dressed up as "in favour of the workers of the workshy", when in fact very significant numbers affected will already be in work.

    Discussing with two people I know serving on the management of Trussel, they expect foodbank use to explode again ; homelessness will also rise again, as was documented during the 2014-2015 cut ; and rates of mental illness will rise again.

    I didn't think Johnson and others would be so backward, especially after Johnson's noises on keeping welfare "security " during his first budget, and that they take account of polled shifts of public opinion during the pandemic ; but no, back to the very moral and economic worst and dregs of the Osborne era.

    I hope Johnson, Dorries, and others will have some of the wide-ranging results of this on their conscience some point, because they will deserve to.

    Truly repulsive.
    Maybe wait for the budget where I expect the issue and minimum wage to be addressed
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    Great, now being softened up for 3 years of council tax rises. This high wage economy better be fukkin good.

    Only 3? Lucky devil.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Got it. Thanks. But from Googling I see that Charles Hamilton is in the Guinness Book of Records as the most prolific writer in history, so perhaps Orwell could be forgiven for assuming that this vast output was the work of many hands writing under the same in-house pseudonyms.
    Golly. 100m words, equivalent to 1200 average length novels.
  • malcolmg said:

    Still an English court deciding Scottish Law matters, all wrong and very colonial.
    It is a UK court with a Scottish judge announcing their decision

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824

    https://www.britainelects.com/2021/10/07/previewing-the-six-council-by-elections-of-07-oct-2021/

    Andrew Teale has published his write up of today's by-elections, including the infamous Cranleigh East ward.

    They talked of little else this past week in Taipei.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    rcs1000 said:

    When I was in Vegas, the options were (and I'm not kidding): 20%, 30% and 40%!
    20% - no cheapstakes here
    40% - you've been (or at least hope to be) lucky on the slots.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Great, now being softened up for 3 years of council tax rises. This high wage economy better be fukkin good.

    Unlikely to be that good for people on fixed incomes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    TimT said:

    It seems you believe that there is one kind of intelligence.
    I actually read his comment as saying the opposite, hence a genius of one thing could be not bright elsewhere.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    IshmaelZ said:

    Golly. 100m words, equivalent to 1200 average length novels.
    Any of it still read today?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited October 2021
    kle4 said:

    I actually read his comment as saying the opposite, hence a genius of one thing could be not bright elsewhere.
    Ah! My bad. But if that were the case, surely it can't be argued that Orwell was lacking in intelligence?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,680
    edited October 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Reading this discussion with considerable interest. Much better than going on about the supremacy of Westminster and generations.
    Under the Scotland Act a provision is not law if it is outside their competence, and this is the case if it 'relates to' reserved matters. It is not contested that the Union of the Kingdoms is a reserved matter.

    The question is whether a Scottish Act for an advisory referendum on the Union of the Kingdoms is something which 'relates to' the Union of the Kingdoms.

    Depending on who is paying you a series of eminent silks will be found to say 'Yes it does' and a long robed queue will form to say 'No it doesn't.'

    It won't detain the SC long. The answer is 'Yes it does'. The obvious answer is also the correct one.

    I have no dog in the fight; except that I support the Union of the Kingdoms and believe that if the Scottish parliament were so daft as to start on this it would do the union no harm.

This discussion has been closed.