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Kamala Harris is over-priced in the WH2024 nomination betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    I haven't nor have I had any missing items in my weekly Asda delivery of approx. £70 a week of goods
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055
    edited October 6
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Bottled water, Tesco, 6-8 weeks ago. Ony "with a hint of" stuff left.

    Annoyingly, the first time for at least a decade I have wanted bottled water, as a fallback supply on a little boat I've just bought in case I get swept out to sea.
    I hoard bottled water even in the good times. I love the taste of Highland Spring. I always have a bottle by the bed. I generally keep about 20 bottles in stock and start to get a tingle of panic when the number goes below about 12

    Hydration, hydration, hydration
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,266
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, sp not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Yes. A few weeks ago, no lamb or beef*, fresh or frozen, anywhere in the fridges or freezers. Plenty of chicken available.
    Most recent trip to the supermarket, I don't remember seeing any gaps.

    There may have been canned beef and/or pies available.
    Fair enough, and interesting. Roughly where was this?
    Aberdeenshire, in a large Tesco.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    Yes, I see the FBPE mob are pleasuring themselves furiously over that this morning.

    We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
    Brexit is responsible for 50% of our variable driver shortage is a useful way to look at it.

    We have had an ongoing, longstanding (and sustainable, evidently) shortage of 50,000 and then Brexit (25,000) and Covid/testing (25,000) make up the difference.
    About 16,000-20,000 foreign drivers are estimated to have returned post-Brexit. So my figures were based on the upper-end of that.

    Nick Bailey, head of research at Transport Intelligence: "Brexit is one factor in the mix definitely. It’s not a huge factor, we’re talking about a few thousand (drivers who have left), it’s enough to exacerbate and add on extra challenge. You can’t say Brexit has not had an impact but neither can you say that Brexit is to blame for this."

    It's more of a problem for us because of the way our economy is rapidly reopening after the pandemic - there’s a lot more demand at the moment, and people are spending their disposable income on goods and home improvement rather than going out, and that surge in demand is hitting a brick wall: a shift of drivers into DPD/Amazon/UPS vans instead coupled with a lack of HGV driver testing capacity is causing a big backlog.
    Do drivers 'return'? Because a lot of HGV driving happens pan-Europe. If you are an EU/EEA truck driver with a British work permit, you are in a great position - able to take packages anywhere across the continent.
    Especially as France apparently pays HGV drivers the minimum wage and the unions are now taking on the employers demanding parity with the much higher UK wage rate
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484

    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    I certainly don't recall Brexiteers highlighting queues for petrol, pigs being culled because they can't be butchered, empty supermarket shelves etc as a Brexit benefit PRIOR to the vote.

    But they are now.
    There are supply problems and energy problems right across the world, including in Brussels, China and the USA.

    It's only in Britain it's blamed on Brexit rather than Covid.
    Genuine question, are there verifiable examples of other first world economies with queues at the pumps, culled excess livestock and empty supermarket shelves?
    Empty shelves in a Carrefour shop in Brussels:

    https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/187453/belgium-is-looking-for-5000-lorry-drivers-to-keep-shop-shelves-filled/

    Very large cargo backlogs in Southern California affecting San Franciso

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/The-stuff-we-want-to-buy-is-in-shorter-supply-16508271.php

    Electricity crisis in China due to coal supply problems:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/29/china-hit-by-power-cuts-and-factory-closures-as-energy-crisis-bites
    Och well, one out of three asked-for examples isn't great but better than nought I guess.

    The Carrefour situation one was due to industrial action wasn't it?
    Any made up fake port will do in a storm
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    I haven't nor have I had any missing items in my weekly Asda delivery of approx. £70 a week of goods
    West London - the Sainsbury Local doesn't seem to be any different than pre COVID. They always run lines down to just before delivery, since they have next to no storage space out back.

    The local Tesco has more storage space and they have full shelves as usual.

    Deliveries from Ocado and Sainsburys don't seem to have more substitutions than before.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    Yes, I see the FBPE mob are pleasuring themselves furiously over that this morning.

    We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
    Brexit is responsible for 50% of our variable driver shortage is a useful way to look at it.

    We have had an ongoing, longstanding (and sustainable, evidently) shortage of 50,000 and then Brexit (25,000) and Covid/testing (25,000) make up the difference.
    About 16,000-20,000 foreign drivers are estimated to have returned post-Brexit. So my figures were based on the upper-end of that.

    Nick Bailey, head of research at Transport Intelligence: "Brexit is one factor in the mix definitely. It’s not a huge factor, we’re talking about a few thousand (drivers who have left), it’s enough to exacerbate and add on extra challenge. You can’t say Brexit has not had an impact but neither can you say that Brexit is to blame for this."

    It's more of a problem for us because of the way our economy is rapidly reopening after the pandemic - there’s a lot more demand at the moment, and people are spending their disposable income on goods and home improvement rather than going out, and that surge in demand is hitting a brick wall: a shift of drivers into DPD/Amazon/UPS vans instead coupled with a lack of HGV driver testing capacity is causing a big backlog.
    Do drivers 'return'? Because a lot of HGV driving happens pan-Europe. If you are an EU/EEA truck driver with a British work permit, you are in a great position - able to take packages anywhere across the continent.
    Most of the drop is British drivers who have quit during the pandemic. Indeed in 2015 there were less than 10% EU drivers, so not them driving down pay.


  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    I was accused by @Richard_Tyndall of 'not knowing anything about the farming sector' by having a laissez-faire attitude that pigs should be culled if need be and its on the sector to raise its standards of pay and conditions to get vacancies filled.

    Apparently vacancies have nothing to do with it, and it was all due to red tape.

    So how come the Chief Executive of the National Pig Association isn't mentioning red tape at all on the BBC? The issues she says (like I thought) is vacancies in the sector. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58813959

    And the National Pig Association's solution? More immigration to fill vacancies, and cut standards to get a visa.

    How about raising standards and pay instead of cutting them? Just an idea. But if vacancies are the issue, then laissez-faire and let the sector fill them . . . and if pigs get culled, pigs get culled, until sufficient prices arise that the vacancies are filled.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Bottled water, Tesco, 6-8 weeks ago. Ony "with a hint of" stuff left.

    Annoyingly, the first time for at least a decade I have wanted bottled water, as a fallback supply on a little boat I've just bought in case I get swept out to sea.
    My son will have water on his lifeboat !!!!!!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484

    malcolmg said:

    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?

    Not really, would be surprisingly inaccurate because of the issue of the lip and pouring the water out loses alot to surface adhesion.

    Unless you are measuring the rainy season in the tropics, of course.
    surely you just make sure you have measuring scale on the outside of the jam jar then you only pour out after measuring when full etc
    Setting a measuring scale like that is a fair amount of work (different opening to internal size, curved at the bottom) - the OP wanted to just use a ruler.
    Bit Heath Robinson in that case, best just order a weather station with all the necessary kit. I may just do that myself.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,844
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Bottled water, Tesco, 6-8 weeks ago. Ony "with a hint of" stuff left.

    Annoyingly, the first time for at least a decade I have wanted bottled water, as a fallback supply on a little boat I've just bought in case I get swept out to sea.
    I hoard bottled water even in the good times. I love the taste of Highland Spring. I always have a bottle by the bed. I generally keep about 20 bottles in stock and start to get a tingle of panic when the number goes below about 12

    Hydration, hydration, hydration
    I've got it on tap.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,775
    edited October 6
    Leon said:

    I’ve yet to encounter a single ‘empty shelf’ anywhere in London. Nor have I encountered a lack of any particular product - apart from that horrific two day shortage of ‘flaked parmesan’ in Marks & Sparks a month back, and, about a week later, in the same shop, a day when they had no tiny bottles of white wine (the quarter size bottles for cooking wine, they had ample 75cl bottles)

    That’s it. That’s the extent of the dire supermarket shortages in London, in my experience. It’s not exactly the USSR in 1937. However, maybe The Party is making sure the nomenklatura are kept well fed in Moscow-London, even as the Holomodor rages across Yorkshire, where parents are eating their children?

    In deepest darkest west London Waitrose had a meagre choice of crisps for a few days, but that appears to have been fixed. Tesco had a couple of substitutions in the delivery but that hasn't varied much at all, and none of the substitutions have been unreasonable. Petrol supplies went a bit mad last week, but have settled down now, and whilst not back to normal yet the huge queues and closed forecourts seem to have passed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, sp not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Yes. A few weeks ago, no lamb or beef*, fresh or frozen, anywhere in the fridges or freezers. Plenty of chicken available.
    Most recent trip to the supermarket, I don't remember seeing any gaps.

    There may have been canned beef and/or pies available.
    Fair enough, and interesting. Roughly where was this?
    Aberdeenshire, in a large Tesco.
    Makes sense. A somewhat more remote and empty part of the UK, more susceptible to a temporary shortage of drivers

    From the anecdata here it looks like there were some genuine but not frightening shortages a few weeks back, probably not helped by a bit of panic, but the situation has now stabilised.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Majority for the Union in those figures
    Great. Let’s have a referendum. The British Nationalists will win easy-peasy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?

    Not really, would be surprisingly inaccurate because of the issue of the lip and pouring the water out loses alot to surface adhesion.

    Unless you are measuring the rainy season in the tropics, of course.
    surely you just make sure you have measuring scale on the outside of the jam jar then you only pour out after measuring when full etc
    Setting a measuring scale like that is a fair amount of work (different opening to internal size, curved at the bottom) - the OP wanted to just use a ruler.
    Bit Heath Robinson in that case, best just order a weather station with all the necessary kit. I may just do that myself.
    It could be a fun project with the kids, if your mind works that way.

    The suggestion (somewhere below) to use a really large, cheap funnel as a collector and combine that with the thinnest jar you can find would be a good idea for this.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,771

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Bottled water, Tesco, 6-8 weeks ago. Ony "with a hint of" stuff left.

    Annoyingly, the first time for at least a decade I have wanted bottled water, as a fallback supply on a little boat I've just bought in case I get swept out to sea.
    My son will have water on his lifeboat !!!!!!
    Oh good, also have a handheld VHF with a special red Come and rescuse me button on it.

    I am what the RNLI calls a WAFI - wind-assisted idiot.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,493
    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    This year? No. And my Tesco order has been 95% fulfilled throughout.
    But there does seem to have been a few weird shortages. Microwave rice, for example. For seven or eight weeks this has been very hard to get hold of - either own brand or Uncle Ben's; either online or in person. Even the One-Stops - which managed to keep stocking toilet roll in March 2020 - have sold out of it. Particularly golden vegetable rice. This doesn't form a massive part of my diet, so hasn't been a massive inconvenience, but odd nonetheless.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    edited October 6

    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    I certainly don't recall Brexiteers highlighting queues for petrol, pigs being culled because they can't be butchered, empty supermarket shelves etc as a Brexit benefit PRIOR to the vote.

    But they are now.
    There are supply problems and energy problems right across the world, including in Brussels, China and the USA.

    It's only in Britain it's blamed on Brexit rather than Covid.
    Genuine question, are there verifiable examples of other first world economies with queues at the pumps, culled excess livestock and empty supermarket shelves?
    Empty shelves in a Carrefour shop in Brussels:

    https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/187453/belgium-is-looking-for-5000-lorry-drivers-to-keep-shop-shelves-filled/

    Very large cargo backlogs in Southern California affecting San Franciso

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/The-stuff-we-want-to-buy-is-in-shorter-supply-16508271.php

    Electricity crisis in China due to coal supply problems:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/29/china-hit-by-power-cuts-and-factory-closures-as-energy-crisis-bites
    This is the story the media and others do not want to publicise as it puts balance into the discussion
    The last article, on China, is from The Guardian! So it's obvious that the left-liberal media is covering it, at least.
    To be honest right across the media they need to stop desperately trying to get 'gotchas' and explain to the country just how the world is being hit by rising fuel prices and supply shortages and the reasons for it

    Just as I asked yesterday how serious the pig crisis is, and I hate the idea of slaughtering pigs unnecessarily, it appears the 112,000 figure comparers to 4.75 million pigs in the country and HMG needs to provide a limited number of visas to address the issue short term as pay rises
    Pigs are known to be intelligent and good learners, can they not simply be retrained to cover a sector short of staff?

    Like, we are a million Turkeys down, could they not be trained to be more bird?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    edited October 6
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    Yes, I see the FBPE mob are pleasuring themselves furiously over that this morning.

    We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
    Brexit is responsible for 50% of our variable driver shortage is a useful way to look at it.

    We have had an ongoing, longstanding (and sustainable, evidently) shortage of 50,000 and then Brexit (25,000) and Covid/testing (25,000) make up the difference.
    About 16,000-20,000 foreign drivers are estimated to have returned post-Brexit. So my figures were based on the upper-end of that.

    Nick Bailey, head of research at Transport Intelligence: "Brexit is one factor in the mix definitely. It’s not a huge factor, we’re talking about a few thousand (drivers who have left), it’s enough to exacerbate and add on extra challenge. You can’t say Brexit has not had an impact but neither can you say that Brexit is to blame for this."

    It's more of a problem for us because of the way our economy is rapidly reopening after the pandemic - there’s a lot more demand at the moment, and people are spending their disposable income on goods and home improvement rather than going out, and that surge in demand is hitting a brick wall: a shift of drivers into DPD/Amazon/UPS vans instead coupled with a lack of HGV driver testing capacity is causing a big backlog.
    Do drivers 'return'? Because a lot of HGV driving happens pan-Europe. If you are an EU/EEA truck driver with a British work permit, you are in a great position - able to take packages anywhere across the continent.
    Most of the drop is British drivers who have quit during the pandemic. Indeed in 2015 there were less than 10% EU drivers, so not them driving down pay.


    By 2015 the EU figure had risen considerably from 2010 and British figure had dropped, so that seems consistent with them driving down pay.

    By 2019 it had risen even higher.

    But yes if people have quit the solution is to offer better pay and conditions so people return to the sector.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Bottled water, Tesco, 6-8 weeks ago. Ony "with a hint of" stuff left.

    Annoyingly, the first time for at least a decade I have wanted bottled water, as a fallback supply on a little boat I've just bought in case I get swept out to sea.
    My son will have water on his lifeboat !!!!!!
    Oh good, also have a handheld VHF with a special red Come and rescuse me button on it.

    I am what the RNLI calls a WAFI - wind-assisted idiot.
    Actually, and I am not suggesting you are, two of the last three rescues have been from yachts losing their engines and one landing on a sand bank
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    So, you don’t criticise FUDHY for citing a sub-sample, but you do criticise me. I’m shocked. I’ve never seen double standards on PB before.

    You are bravely assuming that 100% of SLab voters will back the BritNats. 60% would be a safer assumption.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    Yes, I see the FBPE mob are pleasuring themselves furiously over that this morning.

    We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
    Brexit is responsible for 50% of our variable driver shortage is a useful way to look at it.

    We have had an ongoing, longstanding (and sustainable, evidently) shortage of 50,000 and then Brexit (25,000) and Covid/testing (25,000) make up the difference.
    About 16,000-20,000 foreign drivers are estimated to have returned post-Brexit. So my figures were based on the upper-end of that.

    Nick Bailey, head of research at Transport Intelligence: "Brexit is one factor in the mix definitely. It’s not a huge factor, we’re talking about a few thousand (drivers who have left), it’s enough to exacerbate and add on extra challenge. You can’t say Brexit has not had an impact but neither can you say that Brexit is to blame for this."

    It's more of a problem for us because of the way our economy is rapidly reopening after the pandemic - there’s a lot more demand at the moment, and people are spending their disposable income on goods and home improvement rather than going out, and that surge in demand is hitting a brick wall: a shift of drivers into DPD/Amazon/UPS vans instead coupled with a lack of HGV driver testing capacity is causing a big backlog.
    Do drivers 'return'? Because a lot of HGV driving happens pan-Europe. If you are an EU/EEA truck driver with a British work permit, you are in a great position - able to take packages anywhere across the continent.
    Most of the drop is British drivers who have quit during the pandemic. Indeed in 2015 there were less than 10% EU drivers, so not them driving down pay.


    Not sure why you might think that because the number of sub-group of workers was small, that they didn't drive down pay,

    The market balance is quite susceptible to small changes in supply at clearing, usually.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Majority for the Union in those figures
    Great. Let’s have a referendum. The British Nationalists will win easy-peasy.
    Right now they probably would
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,266

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Except VI is not based solely on whether you want a referendum or how you would vote if there was one.
    I voted Lib Dem, and might do again, and I think there should be a referendum.
    I do not disagree but indyref2 will only happen if the Scots show a substantial majority for it and at present that seems quite away off
    We absolutely should not make decisions like that based on opinion polls. There was a vote for actual MSPs and the pro-independence camp won. If Westminster refuses this mandate, I might switch my vote to SNP or Green.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    I haven't nor have I had any missing items in my weekly Asda delivery of approx. £70 a week of goods
    West London - the Sainsbury Local doesn't seem to be any different than pre COVID. They always run lines down to just before delivery, since they have next to no storage space out back.

    The local Tesco has more storage space and they have full shelves as usual.

    Deliveries from Ocado and Sainsburys don't seem to have more substitutions than before.
    That’s an interesting comment.

    Might it be that in London and other city centre locations, the supermarkets rely much more on the JIT process, with more deliveries and holding less stock ‘out the back’, than in rural locations where land is less scarce?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,448
    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    I was reporting here on Sainsbury's, Cobham, for a few weeks a month or so ago. They had for several weeks some sections empty, although the sections changed from week to week and what was missing one week was ok the next week so not really an issue. For the last month it has been fine (obviously the occasional item, but just normal stuff).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Bottled water, Tesco, 6-8 weeks ago. Ony "with a hint of" stuff left.

    Annoyingly, the first time for at least a decade I have wanted bottled water, as a fallback supply on a little boat I've just bought in case I get swept out to sea.
    I hoard bottled water even in the good times. I love the taste of Highland Spring. I always have a bottle by the bed. I generally keep about 20 bottles in stock and start to get a tingle of panic when the number goes below about 12

    Hydration, hydration, hydration
    I've got it on tap.

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Bottled water, Tesco, 6-8 weeks ago. Ony "with a hint of" stuff left.

    Annoyingly, the first time for at least a decade I have wanted bottled water, as a fallback supply on a little boat I've just bought in case I get swept out to sea.
    I hoard bottled water even in the good times. I love the taste of Highland Spring. I always have a bottle by the bed. I generally keep about 20 bottles in stock and start to get a tingle of panic when the number goes below about 12

    Hydration, hydration, hydration
    I've got it on tap.
    We had this debate the other week. I’d love to get delicious water from my tap. But I can’t. I live in london and the tap water is vile. And I don’t have room for a big, proper filter

    The best tap water I have ever tasted is in the Zagoriou mountains in northern Greece. They have natural springs everywhere - it spurts from the rock every few yards - and it is some of the cleanest water in the world with incredible minerality. So they just pipe it into their homes. It’s like nectar. Ice cold, too
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    edited October 6
    gealbhan said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    I certainly don't recall Brexiteers highlighting queues for petrol, pigs being culled because they can't be butchered, empty supermarket shelves etc as a Brexit benefit PRIOR to the vote.

    But they are now.
    There are supply problems and energy problems right across the world, including in Brussels, China and the USA.

    It's only in Britain it's blamed on Brexit rather than Covid.
    Genuine question, are there verifiable examples of other first world economies with queues at the pumps, culled excess livestock and empty supermarket shelves?
    Empty shelves in a Carrefour shop in Brussels:

    https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/187453/belgium-is-looking-for-5000-lorry-drivers-to-keep-shop-shelves-filled/

    Very large cargo backlogs in Southern California affecting San Franciso

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/The-stuff-we-want-to-buy-is-in-shorter-supply-16508271.php

    Electricity crisis in China due to coal supply problems:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/29/china-hit-by-power-cuts-and-factory-closures-as-energy-crisis-bites
    This is the story the media and others do not want to publicise as it puts balance into the discussion
    The last article, on China, is from The Guardian! So it's obvious that the left-liberal media is covering it, at least.
    To be honest right across the media they need to stop desperately trying to get 'gotchas' and explain to the country just how the world is being hit by rising fuel prices and supply shortages and the reasons for it

    Just as I asked yesterday how serious the pig crisis is, and I hate the idea of slaughtering pigs unnecessarily, it appears the 112,000 figure comparers to 4.75 million pigs in the country and HMG needs to provide a limited number of visas to address the issue short term as pay rises
    Pigs are known to be intelligent and good learners, can they not simply be retrained to cover a sector short of staff?

    Like, we are a million Turkeys down, could they not be trained to be more bird?
    As I said last night if you go online you can order turkey for delivery Christmas week
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Bottled water, Tesco, 6-8 weeks ago. Ony "with a hint of" stuff left.

    Annoyingly, the first time for at least a decade I have wanted bottled water, as a fallback supply on a little boat I've just bought in case I get swept out to sea.
    My son will have water on his lifeboat !!!!!!
    Oh good, also have a handheld VHF with a special red Come and rescuse me button on it.

    I am what the RNLI calls a WAFI - wind-assisted idiot.
    A PLB on your lifejacket always struck me as a very sensible idea. And always, always wear the life jacket.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Ho ho. I have a parasite in my brain, reading my every thought.

    BritNats are clever. Scottish patriots are thickos. You keep believing that old boy.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    So, you don’t criticise FUDHY for citing a sub-sample, but you do criticise me. I’m shocked. I’ve never seen double standards on PB before.

    You are bravely assuming that 100% of SLab voters will back the BritNats. 60% would be a safer assumption.
    Who is FUDHY
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    Yes, I see the FBPE mob are pleasuring themselves furiously over that this morning.

    We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
    Brexit is responsible for 50% of our variable driver shortage is a useful way to look at it.

    We have had an ongoing, longstanding (and sustainable, evidently) shortage of 50,000 and then Brexit (25,000) and Covid/testing (25,000) make up the difference.
    About 16,000-20,000 foreign drivers are estimated to have returned post-Brexit. So my figures were based on the upper-end of that.

    Nick Bailey, head of research at Transport Intelligence: "Brexit is one factor in the mix definitely. It’s not a huge factor, we’re talking about a few thousand (drivers who have left), it’s enough to exacerbate and add on extra challenge. You can’t say Brexit has not had an impact but neither can you say that Brexit is to blame for this."

    It's more of a problem for us because of the way our economy is rapidly reopening after the pandemic - there’s a lot more demand at the moment, and people are spending their disposable income on goods and home improvement rather than going out, and that surge in demand is hitting a brick wall: a shift of drivers into DPD/Amazon/UPS vans instead coupled with a lack of HGV driver testing capacity is causing a big backlog.
    Do drivers 'return'? Because a lot of HGV driving happens pan-Europe. If you are an EU/EEA truck driver with a British work permit, you are in a great position - able to take packages anywhere across the continent.
    Most of the drop is British drivers who have quit during the pandemic. Indeed in 2015 there were less than 10% EU drivers, so not them driving down pay.


    "less than 10% EU drivers, so not them driving down pay"
    The proportion is not necessarily critical. It depends on the elasticity of supply (i.e. the responsiveness of labour to wages) of UK drivers compared to European drivers. Anecdata tells us that UK elasticity is very low, while it is quite high for European drivers.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,771

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Bottled water, Tesco, 6-8 weeks ago. Ony "with a hint of" stuff left.

    Annoyingly, the first time for at least a decade I have wanted bottled water, as a fallback supply on a little boat I've just bought in case I get swept out to sea.
    My son will have water on his lifeboat !!!!!!
    Oh good, also have a handheld VHF with a special red Come and rescuse me button on it.

    I am what the RNLI calls a WAFI - wind-assisted idiot.
    Actually, and I am not suggesting you are, two of the last three rescues have been from yachts losing their engines and one landing on a sand bank
    Not surprised. Makes you think how vulnerable big sailing vessels with no engines always were.

    Fun fact: google a random month in the nineteenth century plus "shipwreck" and wiki will usually tell you about multiple shipwrecks on every single day of that month. e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_shipwrecks_in_October_1874
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,460
    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    In SE London no shortages at all. Or at least, very fleeting with substitutes available.
    In Skye and Mull over the summer, real shortages. Whole shelves empty. Stuff like milk and bread. And from talking to people, not a temporary summer holiday problem either. Presumably supermarkets are prioritising high volume/low delivery cost areas like major cities in densely populated corners of the country.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Except VI is not based solely on whether you want a referendum or how you would vote if there was one.
    I voted Lib Dem, and might do again, and I think there should be a referendum.
    I do not disagree but indyref2 will only happen if the Scots show a substantial majority for it and at present that seems quite away off
    We absolutely should not make decisions like that based on opinion polls. There was a vote for actual MSPs and the pro-independence camp won. If Westminster refuses this mandate, I might switch my vote to SNP or Green.
    As far as I am aware Sturgeon is running away from seeking indyref2 at present
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Majority for the Union in those figures
    Great. Let’s have a referendum. The British Nationalists will win easy-peasy.
    Right now they probably would
    Tell the Clown.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,044

    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    I certainly don't recall Brexiteers highlighting queues for petrol, pigs being culled because they can't be butchered, empty supermarket shelves etc as a Brexit benefit PRIOR to the vote.

    But they are now.
    There are supply problems and energy problems right across the world, including in Brussels, China and the USA.

    It's only in Britain it's blamed on Brexit rather than Covid.
    I don't blame Brexit, rather the present Government's failure to prepare for Brexit. And also the failure of the previous government, which acted as though it could render Brexit all but meaningless if it happened at all.

    Basically the present approach seems to be, let's see what happens and do nothing on the laissez-faire assumption that the market will eventually sort things out. It probably will, five years or so down the line, but in a sub-optimal way

    Yes, I can certainly sympathise with that - to move away from free movement and restrict low-level immigration you need to work on a domestic labour strategy and work closely with businesses, schools and adult education institutes to aid that transition.

    We've basically gone cold turkey.
    I think that's about right.
    And there seems to be a determination to ignore anything (even some of their Brexit supporting business friends), if it contradicts the narrative.

    I'm sceptical that simply forcing wage increases via an tightened labour market is going to have the desired effect on improving productivity or increasing business investment.
    Some of the biggest investment is just private equity buying cash generative businesses (cf Morrisons). The net benefit to the UK economy form that is likely to be small indeed.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    edited October 6

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    So, you don’t criticise FUDHY for citing a sub-sample, but you do criticise me. I’m shocked. I’ve never seen double standards on PB before.

    You are bravely assuming that 100% of SLab voters will back the BritNats. 60% would be a safer assumption.
    Who is FUDHY
    FUDHY DUDHY your bestest buddy?

    Our First Lady is looking great on cover of all the papers.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Ho ho. I have a parasite in my brain, reading my every thought.

    BritNats are clever. Scottish patriots are thickos. You keep believing that old boy.
    You do not even live in Scotland

    And you need to persuade Scots living in Scotland as at present you are failing
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    I haven't nor have I had any missing items in my weekly Asda delivery of approx. £70 a week of goods
    West London - the Sainsbury Local doesn't seem to be any different than pre COVID. They always run lines down to just before delivery, since they have next to no storage space out back.

    The local Tesco has more storage space and they have full shelves as usual.

    Deliveries from Ocado and Sainsburys don't seem to have more substitutions than before.
    That’s an interesting comment.

    Might it be that in London and other city centre locations, the supermarkets rely much more on the JIT process, with more deliveries and holding less stock ‘out the back’, than in rural locations where land is less scarce?
    Many of the "Local" versions of the supermarkets are setup on sites with no/little storage - what they have is on the shelves, pretty much. So totally JIT. With the Sainsbury Local we have, everyone locally (ha) knows the delivery schedule, since they (the shop) plan to be really low on milk just before the delivery.

    The local Tesco is on a slightly bigger site and has room at the back for about half a lorry load.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055
    edited October 6
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    This year? No. And my Tesco order has been 95% fulfilled throughout.
    But there does seem to have been a few weird shortages. Microwave rice, for example. For seven or eight weeks this has been very hard to get hold of - either own brand or Uncle Ben's; either online or in person. Even the One-Stops - which managed to keep stocking toilet roll in March 2020 - have sold out of it. Particularly golden vegetable rice. This doesn't form a massive part of my diet, so hasn't been a massive inconvenience, but odd nonetheless.
    Amazon Fresh has plenty of microwave rice available for delivery today - just type


    https://www.amazon.co.uk
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    gealbhan said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    So, you don’t criticise FUDHY for citing a sub-sample, but you do criticise me. I’m shocked. I’ve never seen double standards on PB before.

    You are bravely assuming that 100% of SLab voters will back the BritNats. 60% would be a safer assumption.
    Who is FUDHY
    FUDHY DUDHY your bestest buddy?

    Our First Lady is looking great on cover of all the papers.
    With respect I have no idea what you are talking about
  • glwglw Posts: 7,775
    Sandpit said:

    That’s an interesting comment.

    Might it be that in London and other city centre locations, the supermarkets rely much more on the JIT process, with more deliveries and holding less stock ‘out the back’, than in rural locations where land is less scarce?

    It is a good point by Malmesbury, the increasingly common in-town stores are really small, often converted from things like pubs, and they hold very little stock. You often see delivery vehicles in the street supplying such stores.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    edited October 6
    glw said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s an interesting comment.

    Might it be that in London and other city centre locations, the supermarkets rely much more on the JIT process, with more deliveries and holding less stock ‘out the back’, than in rural locations where land is less scarce?

    It is a good point by Malmesbury, the increasingly common in-town stores are really small, often converted from things like pubs, and they hold very little stock. You often see delivery vehicles in the street supplying such stores.
    In both the case of the Tesco and Sainsbury's Local near me (multiple branches), the HGVs park in the street, and the cages of produce are walked in through the front door.

    EDIT - The Tesco was previously a generic convenience store, which is why it has a stock room etc. The multiple Sainsburys Locals in the area are all converted shops - generally done by rising out the back rooms to make space.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,524
    I was wrong about the Green bounce


  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    I naively assumed that your first sentence was true. I’ve just checked. Not only is it not true, it is a complete fabrication. Today’s ComRes did not even ask for views on Brexit.

    https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/VI_3-5Sept21.xlsx
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    Yes, I see the FBPE mob are pleasuring themselves furiously over that this morning.

    We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
    Brexit is responsible for 50% of our variable driver shortage is a useful way to look at it.

    We have had an ongoing, longstanding (and sustainable, evidently) shortage of 50,000 and then Brexit (25,000) and Covid/testing (25,000) make up the difference.
    About 16,000-20,000 foreign drivers are estimated to have returned post-Brexit. So my figures were based on the upper-end of that.

    Nick Bailey, head of research at Transport Intelligence: "Brexit is one factor in the mix definitely. It’s not a huge factor, we’re talking about a few thousand (drivers who have left), it’s enough to exacerbate and add on extra challenge. You can’t say Brexit has not had an impact but neither can you say that Brexit is to blame for this."

    It's more of a problem for us because of the way our economy is rapidly reopening after the pandemic - there’s a lot more demand at the moment, and people are spending their disposable income on goods and home improvement rather than going out, and that surge in demand is hitting a brick wall: a shift of drivers into DPD/Amazon/UPS vans instead coupled with a lack of HGV driver testing capacity is causing a big backlog.
    Do drivers 'return'? Because a lot of HGV driving happens pan-Europe. If you are an EU/EEA truck driver with a British work permit, you are in a great position - able to take packages anywhere across the continent.
    Most of the drop is British drivers who have quit during the pandemic. Indeed in 2015 there were less than 10% EU drivers, so not them driving down pay.


    By 2015 the EU figure had risen considerably from 2010 and British figure had dropped, so that seems consistent with them driving down pay.

    By 2019 it had risen even higher.

    But yes if people have quit the solution is to offer better pay and conditions so people return to the sector.
    Overwhelmingly it is the Britons that have quit, and some EU ones have returned (presumably with residence rights).

    The rate of Britons quitting seems pandemic related rather than anything else as we hear endlessly of bonuses etc.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,524
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, sp not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Yes. A few weeks ago, no lamb or beef*, fresh or frozen, anywhere in the fridges or freezers. Plenty of chicken available.
    Most recent trip to the supermarket, I don't remember seeing any gaps.

    There may have been canned beef and/or pies available.
    Fair enough, and interesting. Roughly where was this?
    Aberdeenshire, in a large Tesco.
    Makes sense. A somewhat more remote and empty part of the UK, more susceptible to a temporary shortage of drivers

    From the anecdata here it looks like there were some genuine but not frightening shortages a few weeks back, probably not helped by a bit of panic, but the situation has now stabilised.
    No sparkling or still water in Upminster Waitrose a while back
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    isam said:

    I was wrong about the Green bounce


    Remarkable, absolutely no bounce for Starmer
  • glwglw Posts: 7,775

    glw said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s an interesting comment.

    Might it be that in London and other city centre locations, the supermarkets rely much more on the JIT process, with more deliveries and holding less stock ‘out the back’, than in rural locations where land is less scarce?

    It is a good point by Malmesbury, the increasingly common in-town stores are really small, often converted from things like pubs, and they hold very little stock. You often see delivery vehicles in the street supplying such stores.
    In both the case of the Tesco and Sainsbury's Local near me (multiple branches), the HGVs park in the street, and the cages of produce are walked in through the front door.
    You see it all the time in Twickenham where my sister lives, a place now served by three Tesco Express, two Sainsbury's Local, two M&S Food, and the Waitrose which is the biggest but still small for a supermarket. These in-town mini supermarkets seem to be the new "mobile phone stores".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Ho ho. I have a parasite in my brain, reading my every thought.

    BritNats are clever. Scottish patriots are thickos. You keep believing that old boy.
    You do not even live in Scotland

    And you need to persuade Scots living in Scotland as at present you are failing
    There won’t be another indyref before 2030
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Ho ho. I have a parasite in my brain, reading my every thought.

    BritNats are clever. Scottish patriots are thickos. You keep believing that old boy.
    You do not even live in Scotland

    And you need to persuade Scots living in Scotland as at present you are failing
    There won’t be another indyref before 2030
    Even if then
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    Yes, I see the FBPE mob are pleasuring themselves furiously over that this morning.

    We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
    Brexit is responsible for 50% of our variable driver shortage is a useful way to look at it.

    We have had an ongoing, longstanding (and sustainable, evidently) shortage of 50,000 and then Brexit (25,000) and Covid/testing (25,000) make up the difference.
    About 16,000-20,000 foreign drivers are estimated to have returned post-Brexit. So my figures were based on the upper-end of that.

    Nick Bailey, head of research at Transport Intelligence: "Brexit is one factor in the mix definitely. It’s not a huge factor, we’re talking about a few thousand (drivers who have left), it’s enough to exacerbate and add on extra challenge. You can’t say Brexit has not had an impact but neither can you say that Brexit is to blame for this."

    It's more of a problem for us because of the way our economy is rapidly reopening after the pandemic - there’s a lot more demand at the moment, and people are spending their disposable income on goods and home improvement rather than going out, and that surge in demand is hitting a brick wall: a shift of drivers into DPD/Amazon/UPS vans instead coupled with a lack of HGV driver testing capacity is causing a big backlog.
    Do drivers 'return'? Because a lot of HGV driving happens pan-Europe. If you are an EU/EEA truck driver with a British work permit, you are in a great position - able to take packages anywhere across the continent.
    Most of the drop is British drivers who have quit during the pandemic. Indeed in 2015 there were less than 10% EU drivers, so not them driving down pay.


    By 2015 the EU figure had risen considerably from 2010 and British figure had dropped, so that seems consistent with them driving down pay.

    By 2019 it had risen even higher.

    But yes if people have quit the solution is to offer better pay and conditions so people return to the sector.
    Overwhelmingly it is the Britons that have quit, and some EU ones have returned (presumably with residence rights).

    The rate of Britons quitting seems pandemic related rather than anything else as we hear endlessly of bonuses etc.
    Well indeed. People can get better conditions working for Amazon than they can as a HGV driver.

    So the market demands that HGV employers pull up their socks and offer better pay and conditions.

    They need to quit whining and do it already.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, sp not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Yes. A few weeks ago, no lamb or beef*, fresh or frozen, anywhere in the fridges or freezers. Plenty of chicken available.
    Most recent trip to the supermarket, I don't remember seeing any gaps.

    There may have been canned beef and/or pies available.
    Fair enough, and interesting. Roughly where was this?
    Aberdeenshire, in a large Tesco.
    Makes sense. A somewhat more remote and empty part of the UK, more susceptible to a temporary shortage of drivers

    From the anecdata here it looks like there were some genuine but not frightening shortages a few weeks back, probably not helped by a bit of panic, but the situation has now stabilised.
    No sparkling or still water in Upminster Waitrose a while back
    No stoneground wholemeal rye flour in Waitrose for weeks now.

  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,493
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    This year? No. And my Tesco order has been 95% fulfilled throughout.
    But there does seem to have been a few weird shortages. Microwave rice, for example. For seven or eight weeks this has been very hard to get hold of - either own brand or Uncle Ben's; either online or in person. Even the One-Stops - which managed to keep stocking toilet roll in March 2020 - have sold out of it. Particularly golden vegetable rice. This doesn't form a massive part of my diet, so hasn't been a massive inconvenience, but odd nonetheless.
    Amazon Fresh has plenty of microwave rice available for delivery today - just type


    https://www.amazon.co.uk
    Ooh, thanks.
    To be honest I'm inexplicably grumpy with the concept of Amazon selling groceries, and not yet desperate enough for packet rice (just start earlier and boil it, man!) to go searching - but will bear it in mind for future emergencies.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,044
    .
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, sp not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Yes. A few weeks ago, no lamb or beef*, fresh or frozen, anywhere in the fridges or freezers. Plenty of chicken available.
    Most recent trip to the supermarket, I don't remember seeing any gaps.

    There may have been canned beef and/or pies available.
    Local Tescos almost completely out of veg yesterday.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Ho ho. I have a parasite in my brain, reading my every thought.

    BritNats are clever. Scottish patriots are thickos. You keep believing that old boy.
    You do not even live in Scotland

    And you need to persuade Scots living in Scotland as at present you are failing
    Result of Scottish GE in May:

    Pro-independence legislators = 71
    BritNat legislators = 57
    Speaker = 1

    Who’s failing?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    This year? No. And my Tesco order has been 95% fulfilled throughout.
    But there does seem to have been a few weird shortages. Microwave rice, for example. For seven or eight weeks this has been very hard to get hold of - either own brand or Uncle Ben's; either online or in person. Even the One-Stops - which managed to keep stocking toilet roll in March 2020 - have sold out of it. Particularly golden vegetable rice. This doesn't form a massive part of my diet, so hasn't been a massive inconvenience, but odd nonetheless.
    Amazon Fresh has plenty of microwave rice available for delivery today - just type


    https://www.amazon.co.uk
    Ooh, thanks.
    To be honest I'm inexplicably grumpy with the concept of Amazon selling groceries, and not yet desperate enough for packet rice (just start earlier and boil it, man!) to go searching - but will bear it in mind for future emergencies.
    As it stands now for much of the country Amazon groceries are simply Morrisons groceries, picked by a Morrisons team member and delivered by an Amazon driver.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    glw said:

    glw said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s an interesting comment.

    Might it be that in London and other city centre locations, the supermarkets rely much more on the JIT process, with more deliveries and holding less stock ‘out the back’, than in rural locations where land is less scarce?

    It is a good point by Malmesbury, the increasingly common in-town stores are really small, often converted from things like pubs, and they hold very little stock. You often see delivery vehicles in the street supplying such stores.
    In both the case of the Tesco and Sainsbury's Local near me (multiple branches), the HGVs park in the street, and the cages of produce are walked in through the front door.
    You see it all the time in Twickenham where my sister lives, a place now served by three Tesco Express, two Sainsbury's Local, two M&S Food, and the Waitrose which is the biggest but still small for a supermarket. These in-town mini supermarkets seem to be the new "mobile phone stores".
    More that the various unbranded and low end mini-market stores are being replaced by the "Locals" of the big supermarkets.

    In many parts of London, this means big pressure on the local, "ethnic" corner shops. One chap locally (Iranian) has pushed back, by turning his place into a high end, organic offering - trying to keep his customers in the Iranian community while getting the big spenders from the middle class in as well. Seems to be working.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,615

    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    I certainly don't recall Brexiteers highlighting queues for petrol, pigs being culled because they can't be butchered, empty supermarket shelves etc as a Brexit benefit PRIOR to the vote.

    But they are now.
    There are supply problems and energy problems right across the world, including in Brussels, China and the USA.

    It's only in Britain it's blamed on Brexit rather than Covid.
    Genuine question, are there verifiable examples of other first world economies with queues at the pumps, culled excess livestock and empty supermarket shelves?
    Empty shelves in a Carrefour shop in Brussels:

    https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/187453/belgium-is-looking-for-5000-lorry-drivers-to-keep-shop-shelves-filled/

    Very large cargo backlogs in Southern California affecting San Franciso

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/The-stuff-we-want-to-buy-is-in-shorter-supply-16508271.php

    Electricity crisis in China due to coal supply problems:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/29/china-hit-by-power-cuts-and-factory-closures-as-energy-crisis-bites
    Yes. The livestock issue is however AFAIK unique to Britain. Not sure why though - possibly really is Brexit.
    In the US, the slaughter houses use a lot of illegal immigrant labour. So they never have a shortage - even with the hideous rates for injuries, due to poor training and tools.
    Covid must be hitting illegal immigration pretty hard, which isn't really a great fit for anybody's narrative.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,493
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Bottled water, Tesco, 6-8 weeks ago. Ony "with a hint of" stuff left.

    Annoyingly, the first time for at least a decade I have wanted bottled water, as a fallback supply on a little boat I've just bought in case I get swept out to sea.
    I hoard bottled water even in the good times. I love the taste of Highland Spring. I always have a bottle by the bed. I generally keep about 20 bottles in stock and start to get a tingle of panic when the number goes below about 12

    Hydration, hydration, hydration
    I've got it on tap.

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Bottled water, Tesco, 6-8 weeks ago. Ony "with a hint of" stuff left.

    Annoyingly, the first time for at least a decade I have wanted bottled water, as a fallback supply on a little boat I've just bought in case I get swept out to sea.
    I hoard bottled water even in the good times. I love the taste of Highland Spring. I always have a bottle by the bed. I generally keep about 20 bottles in stock and start to get a tingle of panic when the number goes below about 12

    Hydration, hydration, hydration
    I've got it on tap.
    We had this debate the other week. I’d love to get delicious water from my tap. But I can’t. I live in london and the tap water is vile. And I don’t have room for a big, proper filter

    The best tap water I have ever tasted is in the Zagoriou mountains in northern Greece. They have natural springs everywhere - it spurts from the rock every few yards - and it is some of the cleanest water in the world with incredible minerality. So they just pipe it into their homes. It’s like nectar. Ice cold, too
    I used to work for Boots.
    One of the many random products we sold - and one which head office was strangely keen for store managers to be promoting - was water filtration kits. Someone had noticed that we were selling a lot more of these in London and the south east than we were in the North West, with almost none being sold in the far north of Scotland. It was decided that this was because stores in the North and Scotland weren't promoting it enough.
    So the edict went out: all store managers everywhere must put water filtration kits on prominent shelf end locations. No effort to be spared in convincing all customers to buy water filtration kits.
    Made not a blind bit of difference, of course. No-one bought a water filtration kit in Inverness because the water there is as lovely as British water gets.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Except VI is not based solely on whether you want a referendum or how you would vote if there was one.
    I voted Lib Dem, and might do again, and I think there should be a referendum.
    I do not disagree but indyref2 will only happen if the Scots show a substantial majority for it and at present that seems quite away off
    We absolutely should not make decisions like that based on opinion polls. There was a vote for actual MSPs and the pro-independence camp won. If Westminster refuses this mandate, I might switch my vote to SNP or Green.
    As far as I am aware Sturgeon is running away from seeking indyref2 at present
    First rule of politics: never start believing your own propaganda.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    Yes, I see the FBPE mob are pleasuring themselves furiously over that this morning.

    We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
    Does anyone else find the exactitude of the 100,000 claim a little too precise? I mean if they said 97,000 or 103,000 I'd probably be happy, but it just looks plucked out of the air (as does 500,000 across Europe).
    There probably is a precise figure but it's just reported as "over" 100,000 drivers.

    You can see in this graph here that vacancies across Europe have tracked a similar trend over Covid:


    I'm slightly suspicious of any chart that anchors at 100 from an arbitrary date (given how obviously the conclusions would change if you moved the date by a month or so). It might be useful to look at some metric like vacancies per 100,000 population.
    I wouldn't say that's arbitrary - they're taking it from the month before the pandemic kicked off in February 2020, which makes sense as a baseline.

    That said, I agree there are better metrics to track like the one you suggest.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197

    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    I certainly don't recall Brexiteers highlighting queues for petrol, pigs being culled because they can't be butchered, empty supermarket shelves etc as a Brexit benefit PRIOR to the vote.

    But they are now.
    There are supply problems and energy problems right across the world, including in Brussels, China and the USA.

    It's only in Britain it's blamed on Brexit rather than Covid.
    Genuine question, are there verifiable examples of other first world economies with queues at the pumps, culled excess livestock and empty supermarket shelves?
    Empty shelves in a Carrefour shop in Brussels:

    https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/187453/belgium-is-looking-for-5000-lorry-drivers-to-keep-shop-shelves-filled/

    Very large cargo backlogs in Southern California affecting San Franciso

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/The-stuff-we-want-to-buy-is-in-shorter-supply-16508271.php

    Electricity crisis in China due to coal supply problems:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/29/china-hit-by-power-cuts-and-factory-closures-as-energy-crisis-bites
    Yes. The livestock issue is however AFAIK unique to Britain. Not sure why though - possibly really is Brexit.
    In the US, the slaughter houses use a lot of illegal immigrant labour. So they never have a shortage - even with the hideous rates for injuries, due to poor training and tools.
    Covid must be hitting illegal immigration pretty hard, which isn't really a great fit for anybody's narrative.
    In the US, they are crossing the border as before. With the joy joy that is Northern Mexico, it would take a bit more than a pandemic that is mainly lethal to old people to stop the young who are crossing.

    Of course, they will probably catch COVID in the slaughter houses, due to the shit conditions there. But hey, they are replaceable.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055

    isam said:

    I was wrong about the Green bounce


    Remarkable, absolutely no bounce for Starmer
    It’s that solid concrete 40% Tory floor, again. As I postulated a few days ago. 30% tribal Leavers, 10% always Tories. As long as Boris holds onto those, he wins

    The 30% Leavers are the fascinating ones. For them Brexit is no longer a choice, it is an identity. They’ve chosen their team. They will stick with it, even if all the pigs in the country are culled, and we entirely run out of pomegranates. And potatoes

    Like sticking with Leeds United even when they went down to Division 9

    We saw the same process after indyref. A lot of Scots went from politically neutral, indifferent, whatever, to becoming Yes voters. Nats. Fiercely tribal. This means the SNP also has a solid floor ~35%? Maybe more

    It’s not immovable but like Boris’ bank of voters it will take a while to budge. Perhaps a long while

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    Yes, I see the FBPE mob are pleasuring themselves furiously over that this morning.

    We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
    Brexit is responsible for 50% of our variable driver shortage is a useful way to look at it.

    We have had an ongoing, longstanding (and sustainable, evidently) shortage of 50,000 and then Brexit (25,000) and Covid/testing (25,000) make up the difference.
    About 16,000-20,000 foreign drivers are estimated to have returned post-Brexit. So my figures were based on the upper-end of that.

    Nick Bailey, head of research at Transport Intelligence: "Brexit is one factor in the mix definitely. It’s not a huge factor, we’re talking about a few thousand (drivers who have left), it’s enough to exacerbate and add on extra challenge. You can’t say Brexit has not had an impact but neither can you say that Brexit is to blame for this."

    It's more of a problem for us because of the way our economy is rapidly reopening after the pandemic - there’s a lot more demand at the moment, and people are spending their disposable income on goods and home improvement rather than going out, and that surge in demand is hitting a brick wall: a shift of drivers into DPD/Amazon/UPS vans instead coupled with a lack of HGV driver testing capacity is causing a big backlog.
    Do drivers 'return'? Because a lot of HGV driving happens pan-Europe. If you are an EU/EEA truck driver with a British work permit, you are in a great position - able to take packages anywhere across the continent.
    If they were nationals of another EU/EEA country and primarily based there I imagine they shifted back to spend lockdown with their families.

    It may be they have British permanent residence as well but right now it's too difficult with Covid to get there and back and there are better options locally.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,266

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Except VI is not based solely on whether you want a referendum or how you would vote if there was one.
    I voted Lib Dem, and might do again, and I think there should be a referendum.
    I do not disagree but indyref2 will only happen if the Scots show a substantial majority for it and at present that seems quite away off
    We absolutely should not make decisions like that based on opinion polls. There was a vote for actual MSPs and the pro-independence camp won. If Westminster refuses this mandate, I might switch my vote to SNP or Green.
    As far as I am aware Sturgeon is running away from seeking indyref2 at present
    First rule of politics: never start believing your own propaganda.
    Can you remember back ten years? I have this idea that people were saying exactly the same things in the months after the SNP won in 2011, but I'm not 100% sure.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Ho ho. I have a parasite in my brain, reading my every thought.

    BritNats are clever. Scottish patriots are thickos. You keep believing that old boy.
    You do not even live in Scotland

    And you need to persuade Scots living in Scotland as at present you are failing
    Result of Scottish GE in May:

    Pro-independence legislators = 71
    BritNat legislators = 57
    Speaker = 1

    Who’s failing?
    You are as the appetite for indyref2 is just not there not is support for leaving the union
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,554
    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    So you don't mean having to buy two small tins of kidney beans as there were no big ones (apart from the spicy ones, and the wife hates them...)?

    Definitely out of razor blade replacements this weekend in my waitrose. I had to buy a new razor, which came with 4 sets of blades.

    There were plenty of those, and disposables, but not replacement blades to be had.

    Genuinely - that's it. If I hadn't seen pb and the media wailing, I would have never known.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Except VI is not based solely on whether you want a referendum or how you would vote if there was one.
    I voted Lib Dem, and might do again, and I think there should be a referendum.
    I do not disagree but indyref2 will only happen if the Scots show a substantial majority for it and at present that seems quite away off
    Q: When did BritNats become fans of government by opinion poll?

    A: When they started losing real elections.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,266

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Ho ho. I have a parasite in my brain, reading my every thought.

    BritNats are clever. Scottish patriots are thickos. You keep believing that old boy.
    You do not even live in Scotland

    And you need to persuade Scots living in Scotland as at present you are failing
    Result of Scottish GE in May:

    Pro-independence legislators = 71
    BritNat legislators = 57
    Speaker = 1

    Who’s failing?
    You are as the appetite for indyref2 is just not there not is support for leaving the union
    Apart from when you actually look at election results, but who cares about those?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    This year? No. And my Tesco order has been 95% fulfilled throughout.
    But there does seem to have been a few weird shortages. Microwave rice, for example. For seven or eight weeks this has been very hard to get hold of - either own brand or Uncle Ben's; either online or in person. Even the One-Stops - which managed to keep stocking toilet roll in March 2020 - have sold out of it. Particularly golden vegetable rice. This doesn't form a massive part of my diet, so hasn't been a massive inconvenience, but odd nonetheless.
    Amazon Fresh has plenty of microwave rice available for delivery today - just type


    https://www.amazon.co.uk
    Ooh, thanks.
    To be honest I'm inexplicably grumpy with the concept of Amazon selling groceries, and not yet desperate enough for packet rice (just start earlier and boil it, man!) to go searching - but will bear it in mind for future emergencies.
    Amazon Fresh is amazingly efficient. They never seem to run out of anything and they often deliver the same day (at least in London). They source from Morrison’s but also elsewhere

    Also, microwave rice is BETTER than the rice you boil. It just is. It’s not just more convenient and way quicker it’s fluffier and tastier - a small but notable improvement in life. Like frozen peas. I am particularly fond of Tilda’s ‘Wholegrain and Wild Rice’. Delicious
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Except VI is not based solely on whether you want a referendum or how you would vote if there was one.
    I voted Lib Dem, and might do again, and I think there should be a referendum.
    I do not disagree but indyref2 will only happen if the Scots show a substantial majority for it and at present that seems quite away off
    Q: When did BritNats become fans of government by opinion poll?

    A: When they started losing real elections.
    You are sounding desperate
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,771
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    This year? No. And my Tesco order has been 95% fulfilled throughout.
    But there does seem to have been a few weird shortages. Microwave rice, for example. For seven or eight weeks this has been very hard to get hold of - either own brand or Uncle Ben's; either online or in person. Even the One-Stops - which managed to keep stocking toilet roll in March 2020 - have sold out of it. Particularly golden vegetable rice. This doesn't form a massive part of my diet, so hasn't been a massive inconvenience, but odd nonetheless.
    Microwave rice is in huge demand as a substrate by hobbyists for growing the spores of, ahem, gourmet mushrooms. It's sterile as fuck because it has to be because it's already cooked, and as we all know leftover cooked rice can grow some serious nasties.

    So perhaps there's been a spike in psilocybin demand in your area.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Ho ho. I have a parasite in my brain, reading my every thought.

    BritNats are clever. Scottish patriots are thickos. You keep believing that old boy.
    You do not even live in Scotland

    And you need to persuade Scots living in Scotland as at present you are failing
    Result of Scottish GE in May:

    Pro-independence legislators = 71
    BritNat legislators = 57
    Speaker = 1

    Who’s failing?
    You are as the appetite for indyref2 is just not there not is support for leaving the union
    But both the SNP and the SGP were crystal clear in their manifestos, and Scots backed them at the ballot boxes.

    BritNats are playing a very dangerous game.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,044

    On topic, a couple of observations.

    Firstly, we probably slightly underestimate the prospect of Biden dying or being incapacitated within the next three years due to the fact his age is quite exceptional for a President. The US actuarial death tables show the probability of a 79 year old man (which Biden will be in just over a month) dying within three years as 18%. That'll be lower, of course, for a relatively fit man with great access to healthcare, but it also doesn't include the risk of incapacity rather than death. That's non-trivial and, if it happens, it's hard to see past Harris as nominee.

    Secondly, Buttigieg is a tough opponent in many ways - but not that tough, and certainly not as tough as Clinton would have been for Biden in 2016. She turned out to be a poor candidate against Trump, but had universal name recognition, was a HUGE draw for donations, and had a solid gold CV. Buttigieg, meanwhile, is a highly capable politician, but just isn't on the same level (yet) as a candidate to suck the oxygen from the room, and really struggled to cut through with black voters, which are a big part of the Democratic base. Unfortunately, his sexuality is an issue in terms of electability in the US - that's changing, but not necessarily fast enough for 2024. Indeed, he may well not even run against Harris if Biden goes. He's only 39 years old - had he been elected President last year, he'd have been the youngest ever... but he'd still be 11th youngest even if he ran in 2032 following Biden and two terms of Harris! And evolving social attitudes are one reason he may feel 2030s isn't a bad time to run. Suppose Harris offered him the VP slot early on (with assurances he'd be a powerful VP) - that's a very, very tempting offer.

    I concur.
    Harris has a good 30% chance of the nomination, I think.
    Buttigieg's chances I'm still a bit unclear on, but they are surely significantly above 4% (which would make his current odds value) ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594

    On topic, a couple of observations.

    Firstly, we probably slightly underestimate the prospect of Biden dying or being incapacitated within the next three years due to the fact his age is quite exceptional for a President. The US actuarial death tables show the probability of a 79 year old man (which Biden will be in just over a month) dying within three years as 18%. That'll be lower, of course, for a relatively fit man with great access to healthcare, but it also doesn't include the risk of incapacity rather than death. That's non-trivial and, if it happens, it's hard to see past Harris as nominee.

    Secondly, Buttigieg is a tough opponent in many ways - but not that tough, and certainly not as tough as Clinton would have been for Biden in 2016. She turned out to be a poor candidate against Trump, but had universal name recognition, was a HUGE draw for donations, and had a solid gold CV. Buttigieg, meanwhile, is a highly capable politician, but just isn't on the same level (yet) as a candidate to suck the oxygen from the room, and really struggled to cut through with black voters, which are a big part of the Democratic base. Unfortunately, his sexuality is an issue in terms of electability in the US - that's changing, but not necessarily fast enough for 2024. Indeed, he may well not even run against Harris if Biden goes. He's only 39 years old - had he been elected President last year, he'd have been the youngest ever... but he'd still be 11th youngest even if he ran in 2032 following Biden and two terms of Harris! And evolving social attitudes are one reason he may feel 2030s isn't a bad time to run. Suppose Harris offered him the VP slot early on (with assurances he'd be a powerful VP) - that's a very, very tempting offer.

    I think you have a good point there about the Veep slot.

    I am very worried that Harris cannot beat Trump however. I wonder whether enough Dem primary voters will have the same view if there is some kind of contest.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Bottled water, Tesco, 6-8 weeks ago. Ony "with a hint of" stuff left.

    Annoyingly, the first time for at least a decade I have wanted bottled water, as a fallback supply on a little boat I've just bought in case I get swept out to sea.
    I hoard bottled water even in the good times. I love the taste of Highland Spring. I always have a bottle by the bed. I generally keep about 20 bottles in stock and start to get a tingle of panic when the number goes below about 12

    Hydration, hydration, hydration
    I've got it on tap.

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    Bottled water, Tesco, 6-8 weeks ago. Ony "with a hint of" stuff left.

    Annoyingly, the first time for at least a decade I have wanted bottled water, as a fallback supply on a little boat I've just bought in case I get swept out to sea.
    I hoard bottled water even in the good times. I love the taste of Highland Spring. I always have a bottle by the bed. I generally keep about 20 bottles in stock and start to get a tingle of panic when the number goes below about 12

    Hydration, hydration, hydration
    I've got it on tap.
    We had this debate the other week. I’d love to get delicious water from my tap. But I can’t. I live in london and the tap water is vile. And I don’t have room for a big, proper filter

    The best tap water I have ever tasted is in the Zagoriou mountains in northern Greece. They have natural springs everywhere - it spurts from the rock every few yards - and it is some of the cleanest water in the world with incredible minerality. So they just pipe it into their homes. It’s like nectar. Ice cold, too
    I used to work for Boots.
    One of the many random products we sold - and one which head office was strangely keen for store managers to be promoting - was water filtration kits. Someone had noticed that we were selling a lot more of these in London and the south east than we were in the North West, with almost none being sold in the far north of Scotland. It was decided that this was because stores in the North and Scotland weren't promoting it enough.
    So the edict went out: all store managers everywhere must put water filtration kits on prominent shelf end locations. No effort to be spared in convincing all customers to buy water filtration kits.
    Made not a blind bit of difference, of course. No-one bought a water filtration kit in Inverness because the water there is as lovely as British water gets.
    That’s a brilliant example of stupid management. They should teach it at Business Schools
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,266
    edited October 6
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    This year? No. And my Tesco order has been 95% fulfilled throughout.
    But there does seem to have been a few weird shortages. Microwave rice, for example. For seven or eight weeks this has been very hard to get hold of - either own brand or Uncle Ben's; either online or in person. Even the One-Stops - which managed to keep stocking toilet roll in March 2020 - have sold out of it. Particularly golden vegetable rice. This doesn't form a massive part of my diet, so hasn't been a massive inconvenience, but odd nonetheless.
    Amazon Fresh has plenty of microwave rice available for delivery today - just type


    https://www.amazon.co.uk
    Ooh, thanks.
    To be honest I'm inexplicably grumpy with the concept of Amazon selling groceries, and not yet desperate enough for packet rice (just start earlier and boil it, man!) to go searching - but will bear it in mind for future emergencies.
    Amazon Fresh is amazingly efficient. They never seem to run out of anything and they often deliver the same day (at least in London). They source from Morrison’s but also elsewhere

    Also, microwave rice is BETTER than the rice you boil. It just is. It’s not just more convenient and way quicker it’s fluffier and tastier - a small but notable improvement in life. Like frozen peas. I am particularly fond of Tilda’s ‘Wholegrain and Wild Rice’. Delicious
    That depends on the brand. Microwave rice from the pricier brands is excellent in taste and texture. Cheap own-brand stuff if often a claggy mess.
    Expensive brand micro > boil yersel > cheap brand micro
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Ho ho. I have a parasite in my brain, reading my every thought.

    BritNats are clever. Scottish patriots are thickos. You keep believing that old boy.
    You do not even live in Scotland

    And you need to persuade Scots living in Scotland as at present you are failing
    Result of Scottish GE in May:

    Pro-independence legislators = 71
    BritNat legislators = 57
    Speaker = 1

    Who’s failing?
    You are as the appetite for indyref2 is just not there not is support for leaving the union
    But both the SNP and the SGP were crystal clear in their manifestos, and Scots backed them at the ballot boxes.

    BritNats are playing a very dangerous game.
    I am very relaxed about the situation
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Except VI is not based solely on whether you want a referendum or how you would vote if there was one.
    I voted Lib Dem, and might do again, and I think there should be a referendum.
    I do not disagree but indyref2 will only happen if the Scots show a substantial majority for it and at present that seems quite away off
    Q: When did BritNats become fans of government by opinion poll?

    A: When they started losing real elections.
    You are sounding desperate
    The person who wants to respect the result of a democratic election is “desperate”, whereas the person who wants to ignore the result of a democratic election is wise.

    What a topsy-turvy world Unionists dwell in.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    Petrol seems back to normal at my local Sainsbury's today with only very short queues.

    Seems to be burning out.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,044
    Interesting article on the current CO2 removal market (it needs a lot of improvement).

    Microsoft’s million-tonne CO2-removal purchase — lessons for net zero
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02606-3
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,460
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    This year? No. And my Tesco order has been 95% fulfilled throughout.
    But there does seem to have been a few weird shortages. Microwave rice, for example. For seven or eight weeks this has been very hard to get hold of - either own brand or Uncle Ben's; either online or in person. Even the One-Stops - which managed to keep stocking toilet roll in March 2020 - have sold out of it. Particularly golden vegetable rice. This doesn't form a massive part of my diet, so hasn't been a massive inconvenience, but odd nonetheless.
    Amazon Fresh has plenty of microwave rice available for delivery today - just type


    https://www.amazon.co.uk
    Ooh, thanks.
    To be honest I'm inexplicably grumpy with the concept of Amazon selling groceries, and not yet desperate enough for packet rice (just start earlier and boil it, man!) to go searching - but will bear it in mind for future emergencies.
    Amazon Fresh is amazingly efficient. They never seem to run out of anything and they often deliver the same day (at least in London). They source from Morrison’s but also elsewhere

    Also, microwave rice is BETTER than the rice you boil. It just is. It’s not just more convenient and way quicker it’s fluffier and tastier - a small but notable improvement in life. Like frozen peas. I am particularly fond of Tilda’s ‘Wholegrain and Wild Rice’. Delicious
    That depends on the brand. Microwave rice from the pricier brands is excellent in taste and texture. Cheap own-brand stuff if often a claggy mess.
    Expensive brand micro > boil yersel > cheap brand micro
    Rice cookers are the way forward.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Except VI is not based solely on whether you want a referendum or how you would vote if there was one.
    I voted Lib Dem, and might do again, and I think there should be a referendum.
    I do not disagree but indyref2 will only happen if the Scots show a substantial majority for it and at present that seems quite away off
    Q: When did BritNats become fans of government by opinion poll?

    A: When they started losing real elections.
    If they'd really lost a real election they wouldn't have a say. The winners would get on with it.

    The problem is that Scotland's not a real country right now so the Holyrood Parish Council election result is getting ignored.

    If I were a Scot I'd learn from that and vote to become a real country next time there's an opportunity.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,460

    Petrol seems back to normal at my local Sainsbury's today with only very short queues.

    Seems to be burning out.

    Not literally, hopefully.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Ho ho. I have a parasite in my brain, reading my every thought.

    BritNats are clever. Scottish patriots are thickos. You keep believing that old boy.
    You do not even live in Scotland

    And you need to persuade Scots living in Scotland as at present you are failing
    Result of Scottish GE in May:

    Pro-independence legislators = 71
    BritNat legislators = 57
    Speaker = 1

    Who’s failing?
    You are as the appetite for indyref2 is just not there not is support for leaving the union
    But both the SNP and the SGP were crystal clear in their manifestos, and Scots backed them at the ballot boxes.

    BritNats are playing a very dangerous game.
    I am very relaxed about the situation
    Unionist complacency has always been one of the Scots’ trump cards.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,980
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Genuine question: how many PB-ers have actually encountered a proper empty shelf in a supermarket?

    There must surely be some examples underlying the multitude of stories.

    And by ‘empty shelf’ I mean exactly that, an entire shelf wiped clean, so not just a lack of ‘Tilda Microwavable Basmati and Wild Rice’ but a shelf with all rice gone, or no bread, or zero citrus fruit, etc

    This year? No. And my Tesco order has been 95% fulfilled throughout.
    But there does seem to have been a few weird shortages. Microwave rice, for example. For seven or eight weeks this has been very hard to get hold of - either own brand or Uncle Ben's; either online or in person. Even the One-Stops - which managed to keep stocking toilet roll in March 2020 - have sold out of it. Particularly golden vegetable rice. This doesn't form a massive part of my diet, so hasn't been a massive inconvenience, but odd nonetheless.
    Amazon Fresh has plenty of microwave rice available for delivery today - just type


    https://www.amazon.co.uk
    Ooh, thanks.
    To be honest I'm inexplicably grumpy with the concept of Amazon selling groceries, and not yet desperate enough for packet rice (just start earlier and boil it, man!) to go searching - but will bear it in mind for future emergencies.
    Amazon Fresh is amazingly efficient. They never seem to run out of anything and they often deliver the same day (at least in London). They source from Morrison’s but also elsewhere

    Also, microwave rice is BETTER than the rice you boil. It just is. It’s not just more convenient and way quicker it’s fluffier and tastier - a small but notable improvement in life. Like frozen peas. I am particularly fond of Tilda’s ‘Wholegrain and Wild Rice’. Delicious
    Birdseye Mediterranean Steamfresh Vegetable Rice for me.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Except VI is not based solely on whether you want a referendum or how you would vote if there was one.
    I voted Lib Dem, and might do again, and I think there should be a referendum.
    I do not disagree but indyref2 will only happen if the Scots show a substantial majority for it and at present that seems quite away off
    Q: When did BritNats become fans of government by opinion poll?

    A: When they started losing real elections.
    You are sounding desperate
    The person who wants to respect the result of a democratic election is “desperate”, whereas the person who wants to ignore the result of a democratic election is wise.

    What a topsy-turvy world Unionists dwell in.
    You had indyref in 2014 in a democratic vote
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    Talking of management fuckwittery

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/10/revealed-the-secret-notes-of-blue-origin-leaders-trying-to-catch-spacex/

    The short version - New head of company discovers the place is a mess and not doing stuff like the "cool" company. His plan to address this is

    1) Hire management consultants to read stuff off the internet and make a report
    2) Filter it through 3 levels of C suite idiots - who "translate" the findings.
    3) i.e. "They have a workforce motivated to work long hours" = "We must flog the serfs harder".
    4) Make some notes from that

    WTAF?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,526
    edited October 6

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Except VI is not based solely on whether you want a referendum or how you would vote if there was one.
    I voted Lib Dem, and might do again, and I think there should be a referendum.
    I do not disagree but indyref2 will only happen if the Scots show a substantial majority for it and at present that seems quite away off
    Q: When did BritNats become fans of government by opinion poll?

    A: When they started losing real elections.
    You are sounding desperate
    The person who wants to respect the result of a democratic election is “desperate”, whereas the person who wants to ignore the result of a democratic election is wise.

    What a topsy-turvy world Unionists dwell in.
    You had indyref in 2014 in a democratic vote
    And we've had a democratic vote to have another one.

    PS: but I am off to do something else rather than bang my head against Unionist reluctance to accept election results.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    John Kemp
    @JKempEnergy
    EU28 GAS PRICES will continue climbing until the market sees signs of actual demand-destruction - most likely announcements of temporary factory closures, longer holiday shutdowns over Christmas, and reductions in street lighting and commercial building thermostat targets

  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Except VI is not based solely on whether you want a referendum or how you would vote if there was one.
    I voted Lib Dem, and might do again, and I think there should be a referendum.
    I do not disagree but indyref2 will only happen if the Scots show a substantial majority for it and at present that seems quite away off
    Q: When did BritNats become fans of government by opinion poll?

    A: When they started losing real elections.
    You are sounding desperate
    The person who wants to respect the result of a democratic election is “desperate”, whereas the person who wants to ignore the result of a democratic election is wise.

    What a topsy-turvy world Unionists dwell in.
    You had indyref in 2014 in a democratic vote
    And we've had a democratic vote to have another one.
    Westminster decides. That’s the law. Westminster is not minded to grant another indyref. Tough shit

    If you don’t like the law, take it to the SCOTUK or declare UDI. Good luck

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,740

    IshmaelZ said:

    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?

    Yes. Needs to be straight sided.
    The curve at the bottom would make measuring most British rain fall impossible by ruler. Let alone the size of the lip vs the size of the rest of the jar.
    Sure but i only want a rough idea... how rough is my rough idea?
    See my post above - I reckon it will be +/- 20%, but you can help yourself by using a straight sided vessel, with as large a circumference as possible. Jam jars may not be best. Think about a saucepan, and then use a ruler without a dead section at the end (i.e. the measuring starts at the tip).

    Edit - If you want to know than buy a rain gauge and compare to your jar method. But then as you have a rain gauge, you won't need the jar...
    I would calculate the cross sectional area of the pan, and then weigh the pan empty and after the rain to determine how much water it has collected. A quick calc and you get the depth. The density of water being 1g/cm3 makes this easy. Should be more accurate using a kitchen balance than a ruler when the depth is minimal.
    Oh FFS. A cheap rain gauge costs less than £5; an expensive one less than £50.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Except VI is not based solely on whether you want a referendum or how you would vote if there was one.
    I voted Lib Dem, and might do again, and I think there should be a referendum.
    I do not disagree but indyref2 will only happen if the Scots show a substantial majority for it and at present that seems quite away off
    Q: When did BritNats become fans of government by opinion poll?

    A: When they started losing real elections.
    You are sounding desperate
    The person who wants to respect the result of a democratic election is “desperate”, whereas the person who wants to ignore the result of a democratic election is wise.

    What a topsy-turvy world Unionists dwell in.
    You had indyref in 2014 in a democratic vote
    And we've had a democratic vote to have another one.
    Westminster decides. That’s the law. Westminster is not minded to grant another indyref. Tough shit

    If you don’t like the law, take it to the SCOTUK or declare UDI. Good luck

    'You aren't a real country Scotland so suck it up, buttercup'
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594

    Petrol seems back to normal at my local Sainsbury's today with only very short queues.

    Seems to be burning out.

    Not literally, hopefully.
    I watched a tanker pull into our local petrol station from the pub window last night. Didn't seem to be being tailed by desperate motorists so maybe it is calming down.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    On today's Comres there was little difference between English and Scottish views of Brexit.

    Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
    There was however a huge difference between English and Scottish voting intention:

    English VI / Scottish VI (today’s ComRes)

    Con 44% / 27%
    Lab 39% / 19%
    LD 10% / 8%
    RUK 3% / 2%
    Grn 4% / 1%
    SNP - / 41%
    oth 1% / 2%
    Is that - *shudder* - a sub-sample?

    Unreliable if so, but interesting that it - unreliably - implies for Indy a NO vote of 56%, and a YES vote of just 42%. Not great for your cause, I suggest
    I am not sure @StuartDickson realised how poor those figures are for indyref2
    Except VI is not based solely on whether you want a referendum or how you would vote if there was one.
    I voted Lib Dem, and might do again, and I think there should be a referendum.
    I do not disagree but indyref2 will only happen if the Scots show a substantial majority for it and at present that seems quite away off
    We absolutely should not make decisions like that based on opinion polls. There was a vote for actual MSPs and the pro-independence camp won. If Westminster refuses this mandate, I might switch my vote to SNP or Green.
    As far as I am aware Sturgeon is running away from seeking indyref2 at present
    First rule of politics: never start believing your own propaganda.
    Can you remember back ten years? I have this idea that people were saying exactly the same things in the months after the SNP won in 2011, but I'm not 100% sure.
    You remember correctly. The various Unionist HQs were pumping out guff that the SNP would chicken out.

    Unionists live in a parallel universe, where black means white.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    Déjà vue all over again.

    Scientists from Wuhan and the US were planning to create new coronaviruses that did not exist in nature by combining the genetic codes of other viruses, proposals show.
    Documents of a grant application submitted to the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa), leaked last month, reveal that the international team of scientists planned to mix genetic data of closely related strains and grow completely new viruses.
    A genetics expert working with the World Health Organisation (WHO), who uncovered the plan after studying the proposals in detail, said that if Sars-CoV-2 had been produced in this way, it would explain why a close match has never been found in nature.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/10/05/wuhan-us-scientists-planned-create-new-coronaviruses-funding/
This discussion has been closed.