Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open
Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Now, now, TSE. You're not supposed to include your own material in Nighthawks.
Applying the Lambert & Butler model (Pony Juice derivitives)-
(Super electric genrator with added sleigh bells forecast)
Con vote lead 27% (increase from 19% last time)
Con seat lead 276 seats
(17981 Clacton on Sea simulations)
Chance of Tory vote lead: 4,596.0% (Up from 2,578% last time)
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 3,786% (Up from 2,163% last time)
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 0.0004%
Chance of a Tory majority: 3,098%
Chance of a Labour majority: -4,765%
Chance of Labour most votes 0.00000000000000001%
DC for PM nailed on!
* I reserve the right to change the figures very close to the election and make some fantastic excuse along the lines that I have tinkered with the formulation so it looks identical to what the result ends up and declare my calculator a complete success.
I expect it'll be on radio too. If not then I'll hie myself to a friend's house to watch. It was unique fun getting the 1st debate second hand through the eyes of (some of) you lot.
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4589/integration-muslims
FOR ALL THAT IS HOLY CAN WE PLEASE HAVE SOME DECENT LEFTIES HERE ON PB.
Perhaps we could put an ad in Guardian Media or something?
Please.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxFqv1QDI3Q
But an interesting tale nonetheless.
•Rand Paul (R) 50% (46%) {47%} [49%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 36% (40%) {41%} [43%]
•Chris Christie (R) 45% (44%) {43%} [46%] (43%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 34% (41%) {39%} [38%] (42%)
•Jeb Bush (R) 47% (47%) {47%} [49%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 38% (41%) {39%} [42%]
•Mike Huckabee (R) 47% (43%) {45%}
•Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (42%) {41%}
•Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (44%) {44%} [49%] (53%)
•Sarah Palin (R) 40% (41%) {43%} [40%] (37%)
http://www.argojournal.com/2014/08/poll-watch-ppp-d-alaska-2016.html
Do you count yourself as a decent Rightie?
These dialogues that you're part of?
You need to work out which out which ones are really happening, and which ones are only happening in your head.
2. I really thought we were going to get rid of Scotland this time. *tut*
3. Good. Just as long as it doesn't involve English taxpayers forming a currency union I'm OK with this.
4. I'd like to know when politicians will give US money?
5. Taxi time for the yellow peril.
6. We've accepted jobs at the expense of wages - Which will benefit everyone in the long run. Before Mrs Thatcher we'd almost certainly have had a wage spike, stagflation and mass unemployment after the recession. The Blessed Margaret's reforms endure.
7. Are these "sanctions" like the one's against Putin's oligarchs?
8. I think everyone know's the difference between opting out of the increasingly mad ECOHR and terrorist's chopping people's heads off and burying them alive in Iraq.
9. We should nominate SeanT for the Nobel Peace Prize.
10. I think there is an argument for executing murderers who have had their crime's proved with DNA. Though I would still be queasy about it's reintroduction.
11. Ditto
12. To many "Likes" make a lemon...
13. What goes around comes around...
14. Filth!
15. America would be so much more cultured if they'd stayed in the Empire until the 20th Century. They would even know how to play football and cricket.
http://gallery.photo.net/photo/7467040-md.jpg
prosperity
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1253749/Camerons-prep-school-report-reveals-class.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2723916/David-Cameron-forced-resign-Prime-Minister-Scotland-votes-Yes-independence-warns-Tory.html
Mr. HYUFD, Davis avoided nailing his colours to the mast in Andrew Neil's documentary the other night. Either the Mail's being a little loose, or he's changed tack recently.
Not keen on capital punishment (DNA isn't 100% certain, you can still get laboratory cock ups and anyway I'd like to think we'd moved on).
Can I add as a Welsh taxpayer I have no desire to pay for Salmond's idiocies. If you want to go it alone, fine, great, let's be friends. but independence means just that, not a cherry picked Devo max with a gunboat or two on Loch Lomond).
America v Canada was the world's first international cricket match in about 1860 I believe. The Civil War ended that as well as much else. However, without 1776 and all that the Brits would've clashed with the South circa 1834 with unknown results.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2m
Nice poll - interesting other questions. I'll publish it after 6am
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-28781276
One in 10 Ukip supporters would 'strongly approve' of convicted murderers being beheaded http://i100.io/qVOkFSJ
1183/Felix Poor timing as usual by DD, just as polls swing to No. Though he did agree with Redwood's recent comment there should be English votes for English laws
Scottish Westminster MPs (59) should be merged with Scottish List MSPs (56) because neither have that much to do. They could spend 2 weeks a month at Westminster dealing with UK issues and 2 weeks a month dealing with Scottish ones.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead down one to two points: CON 34%, LAB 36%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-28778604
Frankly any poll at this stage doesn't matter, its the direction of travel over the next few months. If Dave doesn't get a feel-good factor from the economic stats and unemployment figs... The Tories will be stuffed.
64/100 Strongly disapprove (green)
14/100 Tend to disapprove (yellow)
6/100 Strongly approve (blue)
5/100 tend to approve (orange)
11/100 Don't know (red)
Unless something is very wrong on my screen... I pressed the UKIP tag and that's what I get
Its Lib Dems that are 11/100 Strongly approve of beheading
We can also look at the source data, and it is 11/100
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/0cxrbmqn06/InternalResults_140812_death_penalty_W.pdf
Here are some of the definitions of "humane"
compassionate, kind, kindly, kind-hearted, considerate, understanding, sympathetic, tolerant, civilized, good, good-natured, gentle;.
Oh well, lets not murder anyone and it wont be a worry
A blunt spoon would be my preferred method, cheap and maximum deterrent.
Of course, we'd then have to kill the peadophile for murder, but we can probably find a murderer to do that.
In 2010 it took 10.7m Conservative voters to elect 306 MPs, an average of 34,980 votes per MP. It took 8.6m Labour voters to elect 258 MPs, an average of 33,358 votes per MP. So far, so well known: Labour has an advantage in that >1,500 fewer votes are needed to elect each of its MPs.
Then I looked at the figures for England only. In England, 9.91m Conservative voters elected 297 MPs, an average of 33,360 votes per MP. The 7.04m Labour voters elected 191 MP, an average of 36,871 votes per MP. In England, therefore, the first-past-the-post electoral system works very much in favour of the Conservatives, and to an even greater extent than it does GB-wide against them.
Of course, none of this is remotely relevant until either a) Scotland and Wales become independent or b) we get an English Parliament with FPTP or EV4EL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lx5gFwBMH80
If execution should be necessary, then it should be done in a manner that minimises suffering.
The Conservatives' plans for ECHR reform will come unstuck in the details. It is worrying that a man as intelligent as Grieve is descending to disingenuous sophistry to defend the status quo.
That said, some of the scum who have committed unspeakable crimes should be doing hard labour... breaking rocks every day till their last breath.
2. Here's hoping it continues. Obviously my view is coloured by hoping it is true, but the Yes argument on currency has seemed weak, mostly due to being contingent on things that they cannot disguise are not in their control, and dependent upon those they say are currently irrational suddenly becoming rational after suffering a humiliation.
3. I should bloody well hope so. Not just them as well I hope, even if the government does not wish to appear to be contemplating the matter.
4.I thought Labour's financial position was better off now? Oh well, even if they suffer yet more demands from the Unions, it's not as though the Unions will stop cashing up the money.
5. A year ago I thought the LDs would hold onto 3/4 of their seats and surprise people by perhaps breaking into the late teen percentages. The amount of donations and being overtaken by UKIP is not the reason why my view has changed, but it sure doesn't look good regardless.
8.He's probably right, but some of the rulings make a veto such an attractive option.
10. and 11. I'm not surprised people would tend to support reintroduction in theory, but there does seem to be little enthusiasm for actually trying it.
League cup 2nd round draw Bradford v Leeds - yes ;-)