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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the “ICM August polls before general elections” rule wor

SystemSystem Posts: 12,564
edited August 2014 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the “ICM August polls before general elections” rule works again then Ed Miliband is home and dry

Five years ago I made a comment on PB that August polls should not be trusted because of the holiday effect and got into an email exchange with Nick Sparrow – then head of polling for ICM.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Doubleplusridiculous use of the word "if", and a tripleplusridiculous theory. Labour was ahead in August 1986. The whole theory seems to be based on a self-selecting sample of 3. It's a bit like saying that if Gareth Bale had toes like a gecko then he'd be less likely to score goals. True, but irrelevant to any predicting or betting. Ed Miliband is more likely spontaneously to turn into a pumpkin than to become prime minister.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I fear this might be too good to be true - but nonetheless I always enjoy Mike Smithson mercilessly crushing the PBTories' hopes.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Danny565 said:

    I fear this might be too good to be true - but nonetheless I always enjoy Mike Smithson mercilessly crushing the PBTories' hopes.

    I had been planning this piece for months and was always going to write it after the August ICM poll came out. It just so happens that the latest data shows a reasonable LAB lead rather than CON doing better.



  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    In 1996, 2000, and 2004 Labour were led by Blair. Today they've got EdM. How do their leadership ratings compare?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Just to reassure PBTories whom we really love, the Labour lead now is about 3% in my opinion. But because of Red Liberals, I don't think it would shift much.

    The Tories are worried. Removing Gove was not because of his policies; Cameron & co. also can read the polls. Too late ! Teachers are only so much of the giant public sector. 4 years of relentless loss of living standards will have to be paid for.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    FINAL Scottish Referendum McARSE Projection Countdown

    3 hours 3 minutes 3 seconds
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    And still no Dave is crap thread.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OT -- a new set of stamps featuring Prime Ministers (though not Ed Miliband)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28738600

    William Gladstone, Winston Churchill, Harold Wilson and Margaret Thatcher, William Pitt the Younger, Charles (Earl) Grey, Robert Peel and Clement Attlee.

    Paul Lay, editor of History Today magazine, said: "Some -- Winston Churchill, William Gladstone -- need little introduction, yet figures such as Charles Grey, the second Earl Grey, though little known today, played crucial roles in some of British history's most important events, including the Great Reform Act of 1832, which set the country on the path to mass democracy, and the abolition of slavery."
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    In 1996, 2000, and 2004 Labour were led by Blair. Today they've got EdM. How do their leadership ratings compare?

    Surely the Ed factor is priced in. It also remains possible that his campaign and debate performance may be surprisingly good, rather like the No campaign in recent weeks.

    I do not think him very appealing as PM, but the same goes for the other candidates.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,203
    With the Indy Ref looming, this August the political focus is elsewhere; hence it is possible that the parties have been keeping their powder drier than in previous years. Campaigning can only seriously begin once that is out of the way, otherwise it could prove distracting or fall upon deaf ears.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    foxinsoxuk said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    In 1996, 2000, and 2004 Labour were led by Blair. Today they've got EdM. How do their leadership ratings compare?

    Surely the Ed factor is priced in. It also remains possible that his campaign and debate performance may be surprisingly good, rather like the No campaign in recent weeks.

    I do not think him very appealing as PM, but the same goes for the other candidates.
    It doesn't work like that. In EdM Labour have got another Iain Gray on their hands;

    "This polling reminds me of what we saw in Scotland ahead of the Holyrood elections in May 2011. Until a month before polling day Labour was enjoying a substantial lead across the range of pollsters and looked set to become once again the top party in the Scottish Parliament with some indications that it could achieve an overall majority.

    The pointers that perhaps all was not well for Scottish Labour were the leader ratings when their man was compared with Alex Salmond. Iain Grey was miles behind the SNP leader and in some surveys was even behind his Tory counterpart. In the end the SNP was returned but this time with an overall majority."


  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    JohnLoony said:

    Doubleplusridiculous use of the word "if", and a tripleplusridiculous theory. Labour was ahead in August 1986. The whole theory seems to be based on a self-selecting sample of 3. It's a bit like saying that if Gareth Bale had toes like a gecko then he'd be less likely to score goals. True, but irrelevant to any predicting or betting. Ed Miliband is more likely spontaneously to turn into a pumpkin than to become prime minister.


    This is right: three occurrences do not constitute a rule. One could equally cite 1983, 1987 and 1992 and say that there is a rule of dramatic swingback. Each GE has its own unique story and we won't know the full story of 2015 until 8th May .
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    OT -- a new set of stamps featuring Prime Ministers (though not Ed Miliband)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28738600

    William Gladstone, Winston Churchill, Harold Wilson and Margaret Thatcher, William Pitt the Younger, Charles (Earl) Grey, Robert Peel and Clement Attlee.

    Paul Lay, editor of History Today magazine, said: "Some -- Winston Churchill, William Gladstone -- need little introduction, yet figures such as Charles Grey, the second Earl Grey, though little known today, played crucial roles in some of British history's most important events, including the Great Reform Act of 1832, which set the country on the path to mass democracy, and the abolition of slavery."

    Amazing that the image of Harold Wilson, complete with pipe, made it past the nanny state police.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    edited August 2014
    I'm awaiting the next ICM to see if this, or the July one maketh the "trend"

    Personally I think this is a unique election, given the massive rise of UKIP and the collapse of the Lib Dems I am not certain that pollsters old weighting assumptions apply - be it the "Don't know" allocation of ICM, the Populus Question 8, the ICM assumption that hundreds of thousands of UKIP respondees will fail to make it to the polls because they didn't vote last time.

    Alot of weighting assumptions were revised and changed after the 1992 General Election, and they have been shown to work (Past VI weight the samples because Labour is oversampled typically; check certainty to vote - Labour has a disconcerting number of 5/10s compared to Con in Populus normally).

    After this General Election some pollsters are going to have to go back and revise methodologies. UKIP can't be simultaenously behind and ahead of the Lib Dems on May 7th 2015. Barring methodology (Or a genuine UKIP collapse/Lib Dem rise) changes this WILL be shown in the night of election polls though.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    We are in a different political world, with the electorate not trusting Labour or Tories to have a majority. Although some polling has revealed that people have not liked this coalition and would prefer a majority, I am not sure they will vote that way.

    With more people voting for The Greens, UKIP and tactical voting Lib Dems ><Labour, I expect another coalition to be formed in 2015. As I said in the previous thread, this many not necessarily be Lib/Lab, but could be Lab/Unionist/Nats. If Labour are only just short of a majority, they may look for other options than a deal with the Lib Dems.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    edited August 2014
    hucks67 said:

    We are in a different political world, with the electorate not trusting Labour or Tories to have a majority. Although some polling has revealed that people have not liked this coalition and would prefer a majority, I am not sure they will vote that way.

    With more people voting for The Greens, UKIP and tactical voting Lib Dems >

    I can't see it being with the DUP, too ideologically far apart or the SNP (Bad blood from Indy ref) or UKIP (again too ideologically far apart) though.

    Edit: Of those above the DUP may be most likely, if Labour are willing to pay the price which will be some sort of tax/spending bung to Northern Ireland. (Think it will be a C&S deal though, not a coalition - C&S would suit Labour and the DUP better...)
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    peter_from_putney said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    OT -- a new set of stamps featuring Prime Ministers (though not Ed Miliband)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28738600

    William Gladstone, Winston Churchill, Harold Wilson and Margaret Thatcher, William Pitt the Younger, Charles (Earl) Grey, Robert Peel and Clement Attlee.

    Paul Lay, editor of History Today magazine, said: "Some -- Winston Churchill, William Gladstone -- need little introduction, yet figures such as Charles Grey, the second Earl Grey, though little known today, played crucial roles in some of British history's most important events, including the Great Reform Act of 1832, which set the country on the path to mass democracy, and the abolition of slavery."

    Amazing that the image of Harold Wilson, complete with pipe, made it past the nanny state police.
    Wilson actually preferred cigarettes but used a pipe more for image purposes - a pipe smoker then was seen as calm, reflective, mature and a bit more middle class.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    peter_from_putney said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    OT -- a new set of stamps featuring Prime Ministers (though not Ed Miliband)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28738600

    William Gladstone, Winston Churchill, Harold Wilson and Margaret Thatcher, William Pitt the Younger, Charles (Earl) Grey, Robert Peel and Clement Attlee.

    Paul Lay, editor of History Today magazine, said: "Some -- Winston Churchill, William Gladstone -- need little introduction, yet figures such as Charles Grey, the second Earl Grey, though little known today, played crucial roles in some of British history's most important events, including the Great Reform Act of 1832, which set the country on the path to mass democracy, and the abolition of slavery."

    Amazing that the image of Harold Wilson, complete with pipe, made it past the nanny state police.
    I dare say some rent-a-quote backbencher will be preparing a question. Even more depressingly, there are probably 40-going-on-12-year-old activists planning to bulk buy one of Thatcher, Atlee or Churchill to send their Christmas cards.

    The dvd of Wilson's Prime Minister on Prime Ministers series remains in its shrink-wrap on the shelf, though I see it includes four of the stamps set: Pitt, Peel, Churchill and Atlee.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    surbiton said:

    Just to reassure PBTories whom we really love, the Labour lead now is about 3% in my opinion. But because of Red Liberals, I don't think it would shift much.

    The Tories are worried. Removing Gove was not because of his policies; Cameron & co. also can read the polls. Too late ! Teachers are only so much of the giant public sector. 4 years of relentless loss of living standards will have to be paid for.

    So why should teachers deserve pay rises over the rest, and where should the money have come from?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,800
    It will be interesting to see what Fisher has to say. My guess is that this poll and some of the others like populus yesterday will bring his central projection back to Labour being the largest party and the tories back under 300. Once again we see the Tories falling off the path that allows them to win.

    Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    ICM seems as swingy as Ashcroft - I don't see many calls for them to go and "recheck their weightings" though.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    PeterC said:

    JohnLoony said:

    Doubleplusridiculous use of the word "if", and a tripleplusridiculous theory. Labour was ahead in August 1986. The whole theory seems to be based on a self-selecting sample of 3. It's a bit like saying that if Gareth Bale had toes like a gecko then he'd be less likely to score goals. True, but irrelevant to any predicting or betting. Ed Miliband is more likely spontaneously to turn into a pumpkin than to become prime minister.

    This is right: three occurrences do not constitute a rule. One could equally cite 1983, 1987 and 1992 and say that there is a rule of dramatic swingback. Each GE has its own unique story and we won't know the full story of 2015 until 8th May .
    One could not equally cite the previous three elections, because there is a known methodological difference in how opinion polling is now conducted which is generally thought to explain an improved performance in opinion polling.

    However, given the known margin of error for a poll of the size that ICM uses, it is worth noting that the performance of August ICM polls in predicting the general elections of 1997, 2001 and 2005 is better than you would expect even from a "perfect" poll.

    The other point I would make is that the exception of 2010 is less likely to be due to the rule not "working" for a Tory lead, but simply reflects a situation where a significant slice of the electorate changed their minds in the intervening nine months. Crudely, this suggests that there is a 1-in-4 chance of the electorate decisively changing their mind.

    Campaigns and political debate matter. There is still time for the Tories to win votes and for Labour to lose them. Or vice versa...
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Financier said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    OT -- a new set of stamps featuring Prime Ministers (though not Ed Miliband)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28738600

    William Gladstone, Winston Churchill, Harold Wilson and Margaret Thatcher, William Pitt the Younger, Charles (Earl) Grey, Robert Peel and Clement Attlee.

    Paul Lay, editor of History Today magazine, said: "Some -- Winston Churchill, William Gladstone -- need little introduction, yet figures such as Charles Grey, the second Earl Grey, though little known today, played crucial roles in some of British history's most important events, including the Great Reform Act of 1832, which set the country on the path to mass democracy, and the abolition of slavery."

    Amazing that the image of Harold Wilson, complete with pipe, made it past the nanny state police.
    Wilson actually preferred cigarettes but used a pipe more for image purposes - a pipe smoker then was seen as calm, reflective, mature and a bit more middle class.
    Wilson was a Montecristo and brandy man, the pipe and beer image was strictly for the useful idiots.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see what Fisher has to say. My guess is that this poll and some of the others like populus yesterday will bring his central projection back to Labour being the largest party and the tories back under 300. Once again we see the Tories falling off the path that allows them to win.

    Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.

    Ed Miliband's personal ratings will show if it is a genuine boost or just noise I reckon. Labour has had 2 good events recently, Darling's battering of Salmond and Ed's LBC show. But I doubt they have enough salience to affect an upward tick of Lab +7.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    First class Mrs T stamp ! And Mr Churchill.

    You know what to use when writing to your Labour MP...


    >> Royal Mail honours former British prime ministers in new stamps. http://t.co/3H3EBfnRto
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited August 2014
    FINAL Scottish Referendum McARSE Projection Countdown

    55 minutes 55 seconds
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Sad news about Robin Williams – hope this trend with Oscar winners doesn’t catch on.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,725
    Good morning, everyone.

    Scotland = Poundland?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28740329

    Almost seven out of 10 Scots want to keep the pound, but only 8% want it without a currency union. Probably explain Salmond's silliness. Confirming having it without a currency union is plan B would appeal to almost no-one, so he's pretending a currency union is likely to happen as it's the only popular option.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,800
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see what Fisher has to say. My guess is that this poll and some of the others like populus yesterday will bring his central projection back to Labour being the largest party and the tories back under 300. Once again we see the Tories falling off the path that allows them to win.

    Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.

    Ed Miliband's personal ratings will show if it is a genuine boost or just noise I reckon. Labour has had 2 good events recently, Darling's battering of Salmond and Ed's LBC show. But I doubt they have enough salience to affect an upward tick of Lab +7.
    Did Darling's success really play big in England? I thought England was not even allowed to see it.

    The logic of accepting ICM as the gold standard (which I do) is not compatible with a move like this being "noise", at least in my opinion.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see what Fisher has to say. My guess is that this poll and some of the others like populus yesterday will bring his central projection back to Labour being the largest party and the tories back under 300. Once again we see the Tories falling off the path that allows them to win.

    Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.

    I think the boring but correct answer is that Tories and Labour are in a stalemate, with no real movement, just attrition. UKIP and LDs are a sideshow, and there has been very little movement.

    The Tories are running out of time. There may be some tightening, but to have a majority it needs to be a lead of 6+%, which looks very improbable.

    Looking forward to seeing Jacks McARSE in its final outing...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see what Fisher has to say. My guess is that this poll and some of the others like populus yesterday will bring his central projection back to Labour being the largest party and the tories back under 300. Once again we see the Tories falling off the path that allows them to win.

    Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.

    Three words: education, education, education, as a wise Prime Minister once said.

    Education -- previously Conservative-voting teachers were alienated by Gove and his replacement has yet to make known her views on Catcher in the Rye.

    Education -- this year's graduates have opened champagne, leapt into the nearest river, and compared their debt statements with their employment prospects or lack of same.

    Education -- parents across the land have just learned their pride and joy has been denied a place at their first, second and third choice schools, so will now have to schlep across town each morning.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,800
    foxinsoxuk said:

    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see what Fisher has to say. My guess is that this poll and some of the others like populus yesterday will bring his central projection back to Labour being the largest party and the tories back under 300. Once again we see the Tories falling off the path that allows them to win.

    Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.

    I think the boring but correct answer is that Tories and Labour are in a stalemate, with no real movement, just attrition. UKIP and LDs are a sideshow, and there has been very little movement.

    The Tories are running out of time. There may be some tightening, but to have a majority it needs to be a lead of 6+%, which looks very improbable.

    Looking forward to seeing Jacks McARSE in its final outing...
    Not sure about that. The monthly averages showed a trend by which the tories were consistently closing the gap but as they get to the point of crossover they seem to have fallen back. In short I think there has been movement but any momentum that the tories had seems to have been lost and there has to be a risk that the tide will now swing the other way.

    I hope JackW's MacArse proves more accurate than his most famous and consistent prediction because I seriously doubt the veracity of that.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    This Labour mini-bounce may be because Ed Miliband made the right call on a foreign policy issue again,this time simply by using the word "disproportionate" in relation to Gaza.This was followed by Baroness Warsi's resignation and all that goes with it,including Crosby reported to have said the Tories do not need BaME votes.The number of groups the Tories continue to exclude rises again in a way very reminiscent of New Labour's exclusion of the working class.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see what Fisher has to say. My guess is that this poll and some of the others like populus yesterday will bring his central projection back to Labour being the largest party and the tories back under 300. Once again we see the Tories falling off the path that allows them to win.

    Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.

    I think the boring but correct answer is that Tories and Labour are in a stalemate, with no real movement, just attrition. UKIP and LDs are a sideshow, and there has been very little movement.

    The Tories are running out of time. There may be some tightening, but to have a majority it needs to be a lead of 6+%, which looks very improbable.

    Looking forward to seeing Jacks McARSE in its final outing...
    Not sure about that. The monthly averages showed a trend by which the tories were consistently closing the gap but as they get to the point of crossover they seem to have fallen back. In short I think there has been movement but any momentum that the tories had seems to have been lost and there has to be a risk that the tide will now swing the other way.

    I hope JackW's MacArse proves more accurate than his most famous and consistent prediction because I seriously doubt the veracity of that.
    Even if crossover occurs, the Tories need to lead by 6% just to maintain the status quo.

    Milliband is an astute tactitian. 35% is enough to get power (though probably not enough for an effective government).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,800
    edited August 2014
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see what Fisher has to say. My guess is that this poll and some of the others like populus yesterday will bring his central projection back to Labour being the largest party and the tories back under 300. Once again we see the Tories falling off the path that allows them to win.

    Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.

    Three words: education, education, education, as a wise Prime Minister once said.

    Education -- previously Conservative-voting teachers were alienated by Gove and his replacement has yet to make known her views on Catcher in the Rye.

    Education -- this year's graduates have opened champagne, leapt into the nearest river, and compared their debt statements with their employment prospects or lack of same.

    Education -- parents across the land have just learned their pride and joy has been denied a place at their first, second and third choice schools, so will now have to schlep across town each morning.
    Does that make sense? If Gove was hated by teachers (and I accept he was by a significant number) he is gone.

    The employment market in this country, especially for graduates, is the best it has been for many years. Many agreed about the long term worry of graduate debt yesterday but it is hardly new.

    Are the English only now sorting out where their children will go to school in the new term? Weird. Schools up here sort all that out before they go on holiday.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    DavidL said:

    I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.

    An awful lot of people are on holiday: Sainsbury's car park was half-empty on Saturday.

    But yes, government inaction over the Middle East might be a factor. You could compare polls with previous Israel/Gaza flare-ups in, say, 2005 and 2006 to see if they depressed the Labour government's scores.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see what Fisher has to say. My guess is that this poll and some of the others like populus yesterday will bring his central projection back to Labour being the largest party and the tories back under 300. Once again we see the Tories falling off the path that allows them to win.

    Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.

    I think the boring but correct answer is that Tories and Labour are in a stalemate, with no real movement, just attrition. UKIP and LDs are a sideshow, and there has been very little movement.

    The Tories are running out of time. There may be some tightening, but to have a majority it needs to be a lead of 6+%, which looks very improbable.

    Looking forward to seeing Jacks McARSE in its final outing...
    I hope JackW's MacArse proves more accurate than his most famous and consistent prediction because I seriously doubt the veracity of that.
    Let me assure you over the years my ARSE has never been blown off course by the temporary nature of the latest poll or other event. According let me advise you without equivocation that

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,800
    foxinsoxuk said:

    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see what Fisher has to say. My guess is that this poll and some of the others like populus yesterday will bring his central projection back to Labour being the largest party and the tories back under 300. Once again we see the Tories falling off the path that allows them to win.

    Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.

    I think the boring but correct answer is that Tories and Labour are in a stalemate, with no real movement, just attrition. UKIP and LDs are a sideshow, and there has been very little movement.

    The Tories are running out of time. There may be some tightening, but to have a majority it needs to be a lead of 6+%, which looks very improbable.

    Looking forward to seeing Jacks McARSE in its final outing...
    Not sure about that. The monthly averages showed a trend by which the tories were consistently closing the gap but as they get to the point of crossover they seem to have fallen back. In short I think there has been movement but any momentum that the tories had seems to have been lost and there has to be a risk that the tide will now swing the other way.

    I hope JackW's MacArse proves more accurate than his most famous and consistent prediction because I seriously doubt the veracity of that.
    Even if crossover occurs, the Tories need to lead by 6% just to maintain the status quo.

    Milliband is an astute tactitian. 35% is enough to get power (though probably not enough for an effective government).
    Oh I agree. Despite current polling I still expect the tories to win most votes. It is most seats that is slipping away. And I seem to recall Blair winning a pretty comfortable majority on about 35%. If UKIP play the part formerly played by the Lib Dems it could happen again.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited August 2014
    DavidL said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see what Fisher has to say. My guess is that this poll and some of the others like populus yesterday will bring his central projection back to Labour being the largest party and the tories back under 300. Once again we see the Tories falling off the path that allows them to win.

    Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.

    Three words: education, education, education, as a wise Prime Minister once said.

    Education -- previously Conservative-voting teachers were alienated by Gove and his replacement has yet to make known her views on Catcher in the Rye.

    Education -- this year's graduates have opened champagne, leapt into the nearest river, and compared their debt statements with their employment prospects or lack of same.

    Education -- parents across the land have just learned their pride and joy has been denied a place at their first, second and third choice schools, so will now have to schlep across town each morning.
    Does that make sense? If Gove was hated by teachers (and I accept he was by a significant number) he is gone.

    The employment market in this country, especially for graduates, is the best it has been for for years. Many agreed about the long term worry of graduate debt yesterday but it is hardly new.

    Are the English only now sorting out where their children will go to school in the new term? Weird. Schools up here sort all that out before they go on holiday.

    On graduates, what is new is that a shiny new cohort is right now comparing debt figures with employment prospects.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,946
    BJESUS 12/8/14

    LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 267 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    FINAL Scottish Referendum McARSE Projection Countdown

    15 minutes 15 seconds
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,828
    True, but this election is different because of the high UKIP vote. Even in 2005 the high LD vote preferred Blair to Howard, UKIP voters prefer Cameron to Miliband
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see what Fisher has to say. My guess is that this poll and some of the others like populus yesterday will bring his central projection back to Labour being the largest party and the tories back under 300. Once again we see the Tories falling off the path that allows them to win.

    Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.

    Three words: education, education, education, as a wise Prime Minister once said.

    Education -- previously Conservative-voting teachers were alienated by Gove and his replacement has yet to make known her views on Catcher in the Rye.

    Education -- this year's graduates have opened champagne, leapt into the nearest river, and compared their debt statements with their employment prospects or lack of same.

    Education -- parents across the land have just learned their pride and joy has been denied a place at their first, second and third choice schools, so will now have to schlep across town each morning.
    Does that make sense? If Gove was hated by teachers (and I accept he was by a significant number) he is gone.

    The employment market in this country, especially for graduates, is the best it has been for for years. Many agreed about the long term worry of graduate debt yesterday but it is hardly new.

    Are the English only now sorting out where their children will go to school in the new term? Weird. Schools up here sort all that out before they go on holiday.

    On graduates, what is new is that a shiny new cohort is right now comparing debt figures with employment prospects.
    Simply not true - the graduate job market is looking up.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see what Fisher has to say. My guess is that this poll and some of the others like populus yesterday will bring his central projection back to Labour being the largest party and the tories back under 300. Once again we see the Tories falling off the path that allows them to win.

    Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.

    If it's anything to do with the middle east (and Ukraine) it'll be the double standards. Realpolitik is one thing and genuine moral arguments are another but fake moral arguments make people sick if they get too much of it at once.

    At least Hague has gone. He has a voice for moral arguments so when they're fake it's worse.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,725
    Prisoner vote ruling due today:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28749814

    Could seriously piss off people (and Parliament, for that matter).
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    felix said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see what Fisher has to say. My guess is that this poll and some of the others like populus yesterday will bring his central projection back to Labour being the largest party and the tories back under 300. Once again we see the Tories falling off the path that allows them to win.

    Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.

    Three words: education, education, education, as a wise Prime Minister once said.

    Education -- previously Conservative-voting teachers were alienated by Gove and his replacement has yet to make known her views on Catcher in the Rye.

    Education -- this year's graduates have opened champagne, leapt into the nearest river, and compared their debt statements with their employment prospects or lack of same.

    Education -- parents across the land have just learned their pride and joy has been denied a place at their first, second and third choice schools, so will now have to schlep across town each morning.
    Does that make sense? If Gove was hated by teachers (and I accept he was by a significant number) he is gone.

    The employment market in this country, especially for graduates, is the best it has been for for years. Many agreed about the long term worry of graduate debt yesterday but it is hardly new.

    Are the English only now sorting out where their children will go to school in the new term? Weird. Schools up here sort all that out before they go on holiday.

    On graduates, what is new is that a shiny new cohort is right now comparing debt figures with employment prospects.
    Simply not true - the graduate job market is looking up.
    And they have more favourable repayment terms than previous graduates, with a write off of unpaid debt at a future date.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    felix said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see what Fisher has to say. My guess is that this poll and some of the others like populus yesterday will bring his central projection back to Labour being the largest party and the tories back under 300. Once again we see the Tories falling off the path that allows them to win.

    Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.

    Three words: education, education, education, as a wise Prime Minister once said.

    Education -- previously Conservative-voting teachers were alienated by Gove and his replacement has yet to make known her views on Catcher in the Rye.

    Education -- this year's graduates have opened champagne, leapt into the nearest river, and compared their debt statements with their employment prospects or lack of same.

    Education -- parents across the land have just learned their pride and joy has been denied a place at their first, second and third choice schools, so will now have to schlep across town each morning.
    Does that make sense? If Gove was hated by teachers (and I accept he was by a significant number) he is gone.

    The employment market in this country, especially for graduates, is the best it has been for for years. Many agreed about the long term worry of graduate debt yesterday but it is hardly new.

    Are the English only now sorting out where their children will go to school in the new term? Weird. Schools up here sort all that out before they go on holiday.

    On graduates, what is new is that a shiny new cohort is right now comparing debt figures with employment prospects.
    Simply not true - the graduate job market is looking up.
    It is precisely true for those who have jobs, those who have not yet got jobs, and those who have not got the jobs they'd hoped for: in short, for all of them. What conclusions they draw might differ from one to another, but if you are looking for a new polling factor, then this is it.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the FINAL McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection.

    Should Scotland Be An Independent Country ?

    YES 39.5% .. No 60.5%

    Turnout Projection 80.5%

    Figures rounded to the nearest half point. MoE 1% within a confidence level of 95%

    Scotland Remains Within The United Kingdom

    ......................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    McARSE - My Caledonian Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Morris_Dancer

    'Prisoner vote ruling due today:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28749814

    Hopefully the ECHR will continue to be ignored.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the FINAL McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection.

    Should Scotland Be An Independent Country ?

    YES 39.5% .. No 60.5%

    Turnout Projection 80.5%

    Figures rounded to the nearest half point. MoE 1% within a confidence level of 95%

    Scotland Remains Within The United Kingdom

    ......................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    McARSE - My Caledonian Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

    In much the same way as Miss Jean Brodie observed of her Head Mistress, Miss Mackay "She thinks to intimidate me by the use if quarter hours?" You think to intimidate the separatists with fractions of a percentage?

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    foxinsoxuk said:

    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    DavidL said:



    Looking forward to seeing Jacks McARSE in its final outing...

    Not sure about that. The monthly averages showed a trend by which the tories were consistently closing the gap but as they get to the point of crossover they seem to have fallen back. In short I think there has been movement but any momentum that the tories had seems to have been lost and there has to be a risk that the tide will now swing the other way.

    I hope JackW's MacArse proves more accurate than his most famous and consistent prediction because I seriously doubt the veracity of that.
    Even if crossover occurs, the Tories need to lead by 6% just to maintain the status quo.

    Milliband is an astute tactitian. 35% is enough to get power (though probably not enough for an effective government).
    No matter how many seats Red gets he will not lead an effective government.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    CarlottaVance said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the FINAL McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection.

    Should Scotland Be An Independent Country ?

    YES 39.5% .. No 60.5%

    Turnout Projection 80.5%

    Figures rounded to the nearest half point. MoE 1% within a confidence level of 95%

    Scotland Remains Within The United Kingdom

    ......................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    McARSE - My Caledonian Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

    In much the same way as Miss Jean Brodie observed of her Head Mistress, Miss Mackay "She thinks to intimidate me by the use if quarter hours?" You think to intimidate the separatists with fractions of a percentage?

    The separatists day is done, howsoever they're quartered .... hung and drawn electorally.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited August 2014
    HYUFD said:

    True, but this election is different because of the high UKIP vote. Even in 2005 the high LD vote preferred Blair to Howard, UKIP voters prefer Cameron to Miliband

    UKIP voters prefer Farage to either and the vast majority will vote UKIP to get UKIP.
    Remember, the Election Campaign proper will start after the conference season closes at the end of september. During that campaign the percentage of people voting UKIP will grow far beyond the present 12/15% average in the polls. (average in local elections is now 34%, and ok I know it's different)

    The longer ICM ignore UKIP and rely on their 2010 voting figures, the harder will be ICM's (and others) crash when the voters have spoken in May 2015.

  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    edited August 2014
    perdix said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    DavidL said:



    Looking forward to seeing Jacks McARSE in its final outing...


    I hope JackW's MacArse proves more accurate than his most famous and consistent prediction because I seriously doubt the veracity of that.
    Even if crossover occurs, the Tories need to lead by 6% just to maintain the status quo.

    Milliband is an astute tactitian. 35% is enough to get power (though probably not enough for an effective government).
    No matter how many seats Red gets he will not lead an effective government.

    Not least because in order for a Government to be effective, it must first (I seem to hear you whisper) be Conservative.

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,815
    MikeK said:

    HYUFD said:

    True, but this election is different because of the high UKIP vote. Even in 2005 the high LD vote preferred Blair to Howard, UKIP voters prefer Cameron to Miliband

    UKIP voters prefer Farage to either and the vast majority will vote UKIP to get UKIP.
    Remember, the Election Campaign proper will start after the conference season closes at the end of september. During that campaign the percentage of people voting UKIP will grow far beyond the present 12/15% average in the polls. (average in local elections is now 34%, and ok I know it's different)

    The longer ICM ignore UKIP and rely on their 2010 voting figures, the harder will be ICM's (and others) crash when the voters have spoken in May 2015.

    Genuine question to you and/or Isam or anyone that knows. Clearly UKIP will be targeting a relatively small number of seats (ie less than 50 I imagine, with fewer than that being heavily targeted) - but do you know what you are planning to do in the remainder? Is there a genuine attempt to stand 650 candidates and how close do you think that you will be to that? Essentially, if UKIP stand in (say) Bootle it will make no difference to the number of seats that they get, but cumulatively it will make a big difference to the vote share achieved.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,800
    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the FINAL McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection.

    Should Scotland Be An Independent Country ?

    YES 39.5% .. No 60.5%

    Turnout Projection 80.5%

    Figures rounded to the nearest half point. MoE 1% within a confidence level of 95%

    Scotland Remains Within The United Kingdom

    ......................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    McARSE - My Caledonian Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

    I would be delighted if this proved to be true but I think it is optimistic. Given the recent travails of the Yes campaign I have edged out in my assessment to 57:43 for No. I will be amazed and well into the champagne if it gets better than that.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    edited August 2014
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Prisoner vote ruling due today:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28749814

    Could seriously piss off people (and Parliament, for that matter).

    UKIP could not hope for better recruiting sergeants.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    60-40 looks right to me for the referendum given events.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    I have a feeling that whereas once a upon a time large numbers of people held their noses and voted Conservative, they are now going to hold their noses and vote Labour. You might have said that in 2005 perhaps and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a similar result in terms of vote share. The Libs down about 10 and Ukip up 10, with a fair amount of churn of course.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    Lennon said:

    MikeK said:

    HYUFD said:

    True, but this election is different because of the high UKIP vote. Even in 2005 the high LD vote preferred Blair to Howard, UKIP voters prefer Cameron to Miliband

    UKIP voters prefer Farage to either and the vast majority will vote UKIP to get UKIP.
    Remember, the Election Campaign proper will start after the conference season closes at the end of september. During that campaign the percentage of people voting UKIP will grow far beyond the present 12/15% average in the polls. (average in local elections is now 34%, and ok I know it's different)

    The longer ICM ignore UKIP and rely on their 2010 voting figures, the harder will be ICM's (and others) crash when the voters have spoken in May 2015.

    Genuine question to you and/or Isam or anyone that knows. Clearly UKIP will be targeting a relatively small number of seats (ie less than 50 I imagine, with fewer than that being heavily targeted) - but do you know what you are planning to do in the remainder? Is there a genuine attempt to stand 650 candidates and how close do you think that you will be to that? Essentially, if UKIP stand in (say) Bootle it will make no difference to the number of seats that they get, but cumulatively it will make a big difference to the vote share achieved.
    Paul Nuttall stood in Bootle last time, but I'd imagine he will go for a more winnable constituency this time round. UKIP fielded 572 candidates last time round so that'll be the minimum. I sincerely hope they do field 650 tbh ! Every vote counts for share bets even if its a no hoper 300 vote constituency.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Labour would move immediately to stop planned A-level reforms after winning next year’s election, Shadow Education Secretary Tristram Hunt will announce. Hunt will say that the overhaul of the A-level system, which are due to come into effect from next year after being devised by former Education Secretary Michael Gove, would be “turning the clock back on social mobility”.

    Gove’s reforms are aimed at ‘toughening up’ the system, and include scrapping AS-levels and moving from coursework-based assessments to a more exam-intensive courses.

    http://labourlist.org/2014/08/labour-would-immediately-halt-goves-a-level-reforms/

    Looks like Labour want a further drop down the PISA tables rather than the pursuit of excellence.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited August 2014
    Lennon said:

    MikeK said:

    HYUFD said:

    True, but this election is different because of the high UKIP vote. Even in 2005 the high LD vote preferred Blair to Howard, UKIP voters prefer Cameron to Miliband

    UKIP voters prefer Farage to either and the vast majority will vote UKIP to get UKIP.
    Remember, the Election Campaign proper will start after the conference season closes at the end of september. During that campaign the percentage of people voting UKIP will grow far beyond the present 12/15% average in the polls. (average in local elections is now 34%, and ok I know it's different)

    The longer ICM ignore UKIP and rely on their 2010 voting figures, the harder will be ICM's (and others) crash when the voters have spoken in May 2015.

    Genuine question to you and/or Isam or anyone that knows. Clearly UKIP will be targeting a relatively small number of seats (ie less than 50 I imagine, with fewer than that being heavily targeted) - but do you know what you are planning to do in the remainder? Is there a genuine attempt to stand 650 candidates and how close do you think that you will be to that? Essentially, if UKIP stand in (say) Bootle it will make no difference to the number of seats that they get, but cumulatively it will make a big difference to the vote share achieved.
    I cannot say with absolute authority, because it changes week to week, but I believe that UKIP have already selected 180+ candidates for GE2015. The selection process is well under way in many other areas.

    I think that UKIP will try and put up as many candidates as is possible for a small, but rising party, although I personally think the full 650 is a big ask.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    DavidL said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the FINAL McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection.

    Should Scotland Be An Independent Country ?

    YES 39.5% .. No 60.5%

    Turnout Projection 80.5%

    Figures rounded to the nearest half point. MoE 1% within a confidence level of 95%

    Scotland Remains Within The United Kingdom

    ......................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    McARSE - My Caledonian Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

    I would be delighted if this proved to be true but I think it is optimistic. Given the recent travails of the Yes campaign I have edged out in my assessment to 57:43 for No. I will be amazed and well into the champagne if it gets better than that.

    Might I suggest you contact your vintner and buy in some further supplies.

    You'll surely need them.

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    The Human Rights Act has given courts a blank cheque to make up the law, a senior judge said yesterday.

    Lord Neuberger, who is the president of the Supreme Court, said the Act effectively gave the views of the judiciary precedence over Parliament. He said this extra power for judges was a good thing – because it kept governments in check.

    British judges have increasingly defied ministers since the Act was passed by Labour in 1998. The Appeal Court shot down rules to prevent sham marriages by ruling they discriminated against immigrants. And judges have used the Act to dismantle attempts to control terror suspects.

    In his landmark speech, Lord Neuberger cited a key judgment from June in which the Supreme Court declared it had the power – so far unused – to tell the Government to legalise assisted suicide.

    The 1961 Suicide Act makes clear that helping someone to die is a serious crime punishable by up to 14 years in prison. But judges and prosecutors have opened up a defence for those who act out of compassion – defying Parliament’s wishes and effectively wiping out much of the meaning of the law it had laid down.

    Lord Neuberger’s intervention comes at a time when the future of the Human Rights Act and the supremacy over British courts of the Strasbourg-based European Court of Human Rights are being questioned.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2722337/
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,815
    Pulpstar said:

    Lennon said:

    MikeK said:

    HYUFD said:

    True, but this election is different because of the high UKIP vote. Even in 2005 the high LD vote preferred Blair to Howard, UKIP voters prefer Cameron to Miliband

    UKIP voters prefer Farage to either and the vast majority will vote UKIP to get UKIP.
    Remember, the Election Campaign proper will start after the conference season closes at the end of september. During that campaign the percentage of people voting UKIP will grow far beyond the present 12/15% average in the polls. (average in local elections is now 34%, and ok I know it's different)

    The longer ICM ignore UKIP and rely on their 2010 voting figures, the harder will be ICM's (and others) crash when the voters have spoken in May 2015.

    Genuine question to you and/or Isam or anyone that knows. Clearly UKIP will be targeting a relatively small number of seats (ie less than 50 I imagine, with fewer than that being heavily targeted) - but do you know what you are planning to do in the remainder? Is there a genuine attempt to stand 650 candidates and how close do you think that you will be to that? Essentially, if UKIP stand in (say) Bootle it will make no difference to the number of seats that they get, but cumulatively it will make a big difference to the vote share achieved.
    Paul Nuttall stood in Bootle last time, but I'd imagine he will go for a more winnable constituency this time round. UKIP fielded 572 candidates last time round so that'll be the minimum. I sincerely hope they do field 650 tbh ! Every vote counts for share bets even if its a no hoper 300 vote constituency.
    Clearly Bootle was an off the top of my head typical Northern Labour seat - but hadn't realised that UKIP stood as many as 572 candidates last time - I had a 300 sort of number in my mind.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Theresa May is to insist Britain must pull out of the European Convention on Human Rights, to deport dangerous foreign criminals.

    The Home Secretary is advising David Cameron that complete withdrawal, freeing Britain from Strasbourg judges’ edicts, is the only credible option, say Government sources.

    The move came as it emerged the number of foreign criminals avoiding deportation rose by 50 per cent last year despite government efforts to clamp down on the problem.

    The Conservatives are finalising plans to curtail the role of the European Court of Human Rights in the UK, due to be unveiled at the autumn party conference and included in its manifesto for next year’s general election.

    Two of the Government’s biggest defenders of the court and convention – former Attorney General Dominic Grieve and veteran Cabinet minister Kenneth Clarke – were sacked in the Prime Minister’s reshuffle earlier this summer, removing the main internal obstacles to reform.

    But senior Tories are understood to be split into those who favour a straightforward withdrawal from the convention and others who are arguing for a ‘halfway house’.

    Options include a temporary suspension of Britain’s membership, or attempts to establish pre-eminence for the UK Parliament and Supreme Court, allowing them to override Strasbourg rulings.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2722361/
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeK said:

    Lennon said:

    MikeK said:

    HYUFD said:

    True, but this election is different because of the high UKIP vote. Even in 2005 the high LD vote preferred Blair to Howard, UKIP voters prefer Cameron to Miliband

    UKIP voters prefer Farage to either and the vast majority will vote UKIP to get UKIP.
    Remember, the Election Campaign proper will start after the conference season closes at the end of september. During that campaign the percentage of people voting UKIP will grow far beyond the present 12/15% average in the polls. (average in local elections is now 34%, and ok I know it's different)

    The longer ICM ignore UKIP and rely on their 2010 voting figures, the harder will be ICM's (and others) crash when the voters have spoken in May 2015.

    Genuine question to you and/or Isam or anyone that knows. Clearly UKIP will be targeting a relatively small number of seats (ie less than 50 I imagine, with fewer than that being heavily targeted) - but do you know what you are planning to do in the remainder? Is there a genuine attempt to stand 650 candidates and how close do you think that you will be to that? Essentially, if UKIP stand in (say) Bootle it will make no difference to the number of seats that they get, but cumulatively it will make a big difference to the vote share achieved.
    I cannot say with absolute authority, because it changes week to week, but I believe that UKIP have already selected 180+ candidates for GE2015. The selection process is well under way in many other areas.

    I think that UKIP will try and put up as many candidates as is possible for a small, but rising party, although I personally think the full 650 is a big ask.
    Won't it be brilliant when Ed is PM, Kippers have a solitary seat and every 3 months their Mp gets to ask a question at PMQs about the lack of In/Out referendum.

    Truly the country will be a better place.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Financier said:

    The Human Rights Act has given courts a blank cheque to make up the law, a senior judge said yesterday.

    Lord Neuberger, who is the president of the Supreme Court, said the Act effectively gave the views of the judiciary precedence over Parliament. He said this extra power for judges was a good thing – because it kept governments in check.

    British judges have increasingly defied ministers since the Act was passed by Labour in 1998. The Appeal Court shot down rules to prevent sham marriages by ruling they discriminated against immigrants. And judges have used the Act to dismantle attempts to control terror suspects.

    In his landmark speech, Lord Neuberger cited a key judgment from June in which the Supreme Court declared it had the power – so far unused – to tell the Government to legalise assisted suicide.

    The 1961 Suicide Act makes clear that helping someone to die is a serious crime punishable by up to 14 years in prison. But judges and prosecutors have opened up a defence for those who act out of compassion – defying Parliament’s wishes and effectively wiping out much of the meaning of the law it had laid down.

    Lord Neuberger’s intervention comes at a time when the future of the Human Rights Act and the supremacy over British courts of the Strasbourg-based European Court of Human Rights are being questioned.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2722337/

    And another, big, reason that people are turning to UKIP. Lab/Lib/Con will not act against the Human Rights Act because they are all huddling up to the EU. Reform? My Arse.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,744
    edited August 2014
    The reason for the widening of the polling gap I would attribute to Cameron's apparent support for Israel's butchery in Gaza.

    If people would extricate themselves from their computers for long enough to take a coffee at their local coffee house they would hear conversations about a subject that seems to be galvanizing opinion like no other I have heard for a while. SeanT's reaction is typical (maybe we drink at the same coffee shops?).

    Whether the upturn in Labour's numbers has anything to do with Ed's condemnation I somehow doubt. It was barely whispered. Nonetheless outside the rarefied atmosphere of PB.Com Cameron's refusal to condemn has made many people very angry at what is being done in their name.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    Finally some good news from the Court:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-28753874
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,725
    Mr. Roger, welcome back.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Very disappointing crowd attendance at the European Athletics Championships in Zurich.

    What a contrast to the excellent morning attendances in Glasgow.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,946
    HISTORICAL BJESUS numbers.

    There is no noticeable trend

    17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (Ed is crap is PM)
    8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (Ed is Crap is PM)
    12.8.14 LAB 332(330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    I think Mike's sample is coincidence - Nevertheless Cameron and Osborne are running out of time to start to shift things in their direction and this ICM poll is dire for the Blue's.

    TickTock.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Roger said:

    The reason for the widening of the polling gap I would attribute to Cameron's apparent support for Israel's butchery in Gaza.

    If people would extricate themselves from their computers for long enough to take a coffee at their local coffee house they would hear conversations about a subject that seems to be galvanizing opinion like no other I have heard for a while. SeanT's reaction is typical (maybe we drink at the same coffee shops?).

    Whether the upturn in Labour's numbers has anything to do with Ed's condemnation I somehow doubt. It was barely whispered. Nonetheless outside the rarefied atmosphere of PB.Com Cameron's refusal to condemn has made many people very angry at what is being done in their name.

    Driving across RoI yesterday and listening to the radio, there was a report of an Irish opinion poll showing large majority support for Israel re Gaza right now. I may have misheard or it may have been a voodoo poll of sorts but, if this is true, what explains the difference between Eire & UK? Are they generally pro "butchery"? Or is it maybe a no-BBC thing?
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Financier said:

    Theresa May is to insist Britain must pull out of the European Convention on Human Rights, to deport dangerous foreign criminals.

    The Home Secretary is advising David Cameron that complete withdrawal, freeing Britain from Strasbourg judges’ edicts, is the only credible option, say Government sources.

    More empty rhetoric from the Tories on Strasbourg. The government will not denounce the ECHR under article 58 thereof for as long as the United Kingdom remains a member of the European Union. The 'halfway house' options are all utterly intellectually and legally incoherent, and there is not a cat in hells chance that they will be implemented.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    I think Mike's sample is coincidence - Nevertheless Cameron and Osborne are running out of time to start to shift things in their direction and this ICM poll is dire for the Blue's.

    TickTock.

    Another Nervous Nelly quivering at the sight of a single poll.

    Get a grip of yourself or bugger off to LabourList. Throwing a wobbly at the first sight of gunfire does not inspire confidence especially when the electoral enemy is Ed.

    Tsk ....

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    roger - it could be Gaza, but if it is, I'm not sure Labour are on very secure ground. My guess is they will fall back next month.

    Have we got the tables yet. I'd be interested to see whether the Greens have fallen back.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,725
    Just saw an advert for the film 'Lucy'. The premise includes one of my pet hates: the oft-repeated and entirely wrong claim that we only use 10% of our brains [Lucy uses more, which apparently gives her magic powers].

    Almost everyone uses almost all their brain all the time.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,946
    Wonder if DH and ARSE will be the last EICIPM deniers right up to polling day.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,158
    No doubt if Tories win most votes ICM will be gold standard as they had crossover, and if labour win easily ICM will be gold standard because they had a big labour lead in august
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    RobD said:

    Finally some good news from the Court:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-28753874

    I dunno, I thought damages might have squared the circle quite well. The government doesn't need to give anyone the vote, just make a negligible payment to each prisoner who's time inside straddles an election. They could probably roll it in to a work scheme or something to save even more face.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28753874

    The European Court of Human Rights has ruled that the UK has again breached prisoners' rights by failing to give them the vote.

    BUT:

    Although the court said the inmates, who include sex offenders, had suffered a breach of their rights, they were not entitled to any compensation.

    They also refused to order the British government to pay the inmates' legal costs.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Back to the future:

    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews 11m
    British jihadist boasts of fighters preparing for 'martyrdom' http://fw.to/QOXp6rC
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    isam said:

    No doubt if Tories win most votes ICM will be gold standard as they had crossover, and if labour win easily ICM will be gold standard because they had a big labour lead in august

    I reckon the final ICM will be more accurate on Lab vs Con, where I think their assumptions are more valid than UKIP vs Lib Dem where I think the modelling is broken.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    bigjohnowls said:

    Wonder if DH and ARSE will be the last EICIPM deniers right up to polling day.

    It wouldn't matter a jot as those most important to ensuring the veracity of my ARSE had yet to cast their ballot.

    The Nervous Nelly and Mrs Miliband Curtain Makers Alliance have one matter in common - they are as but irritant flies around my ARSE - the electoral accuracy of which is unrivalled in the history of mankind.

    Not to put too fine a point of it .....

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited August 2014
    Financier said:

    Labour would move immediately to stop planned A-level reforms after winning next year’s election, Shadow Education Secretary Tristram Hunt will announce. Hunt will say that the overhaul of the A-level system, which are due to come into effect from next year after being devised by former Education Secretary Michael Gove, would be “turning the clock back on social mobility”.

    Gove’s reforms are aimed at ‘toughening up’ the system, and include scrapping AS-levels and moving from coursework-based assessments to a more exam-intensive courses.

    http://labourlist.org/2014/08/labour-would-immediately-halt-goves-a-level-reforms/

    Looks like Labour want a further drop down the PISA tables rather than the pursuit of excellence.

    Yes, I expect that will be the reason, and not that Labour has any doubts about the wisdom of Gove's reforms. It's all a wash anyway, since neither side seems particularly interested in grounding education policy in research findings.

    Are PISA rankings reliable anyway? American and German industries appear to be doing all right. Employers seem to prefer soft skills to hard skills, and any skills to knowledge (although whether you can teach skills without knowledge (or vice versa) is a question that rarely exercises the Department or the Blob).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited August 2014
    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Mike's sample is coincidence - Nevertheless Cameron and Osborne are running out of time to start to shift things in their direction and this ICM poll is dire for the Blue's.

    TickTock.

    Another Nervous Nelly quivering at the sight of a single poll.

    Get a grip of yourself or bugger off to LabourList. Throwing a wobbly at the first sight of gunfire does not inspire confidence especially when the electoral enemy is Ed.

    Tsk ....

    :O

    I am Conservative inclined at the moment, but that doesn't mean I'll give them a free-ride.

    7% behind with the UK's best pollster less than a year before the election isn't a great position for the Blues to be in.

    I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt until Christmas, but I want to see signs of improvement soon...

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Mike's sample is coincidence - Nevertheless Cameron and Osborne are running out of time to start to shift things in their direction and this ICM poll is dire for the Blue's.

    TickTock.

    Another Nervous Nelly quivering at the sight of a single poll.

    Get a grip of yourself or bugger off to LabourList. Throwing a wobbly at the first sight of gunfire does not inspire confidence especially when the electoral enemy is Ed.

    Tsk ....

    Are you genuinely anti-Ed? I can never remember what your party identification is. I seem to remember when you retired from pb all those years ago you claimed your identity was a parody. Are you secretly a Milibandite?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,800
    RobD said:

    Finally some good news from the Court:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-28753874

    In some ways a rather surprising judgment. The ECtHR has repeatedly ruled that the UK is in breach of the Convention by its uniform exclusion of serving prisoners from voting. But in this case they have declined to provide a remedy other than repeating themselves. This itself is arguably a breach of the Convention which requires an effective remedy for the breach.

    So what is going on? To me it looks like a retreat by the Court. Without changing their position they are effectively inviting the UK to ignore their decisions. IMO this is pretty much the worst of all worlds and quite damaging to the rule of law in this country.

    I know that some of the lawyers who took these cases did so on a speculative basis so the refusal to even award costs in favour of a party whose rights have been breached is also significant. It will be much more difficult for parties to bring this sort of litigation again. There can be no doubt this is deliberate too. And it is again ignoring the effect of such rulings is to close the doors of the Court to those seeking a remedy. Once again this is really not the way that people committed to the rule of law do things.

    It all demonstrates to me where the real problem lies. It lies with a court that is not worthy of respect and to which we have given exceptional and unaccountable power. Theresa May, IMO, is wrong to say we should withdraw from it. I am not sure we even can without withdrawing from the EU as well. The priority should be to reform the Court so it is indeed worthy of respect and operates within the context that the Convention provides rather than constantly seeking to expand its role.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,744
    Jack


    "Get a grip of yourself or bugger off to LabourList. Throwing a wobbly at the first sight of gunfire does not inspire confidence especially when the electoral enemy is Ed."

    And I always thought your ARSE was an organ with integrity. Not just the wishlist of a Tory supporter......
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Mike's sample is coincidence - Nevertheless Cameron and Osborne are running out of time to start to shift things in their direction and this ICM poll is dire for the Blue's.

    TickTock.

    Another Nervous Nelly quivering at the sight of a single poll.

    Get a grip of yourself or bugger off to LabourList. Throwing a wobbly at the first sight of gunfire does not inspire confidence especially when the electoral enemy is Ed.

    Tsk ....

    :O

    I am Conservative inclined at the moment, but that doesn't mean I'll give them a free-ride.

    7% behind with the UK's best pollster less than a year before the election isn't a great position for the Blues to be in.

    I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt until Christmas, but I want to see signs of improvement soon...

    Very decent of you I'm sure ....

    But the Coalition can do without fair weather friends ....

    Away with you and your wretched quivering doubting Thomas allies and go find something on offer that's better !!

    Next ....

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,744
    JonnyJimmy. Maybe you misheard? Or maybe we have a tradition of supporting the underdog which the Irish dont? If you're right it's very much out of kilter with the rest of Europe.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,043
    JonnyJimmy said:

    Roger said:

    The reason for the widening of the polling gap I would attribute to Cameron's apparent support for Israel's butchery in Gaza.

    If people would extricate themselves from their computers for long enough to take a coffee at their local coffee house they would hear conversations about a subject that seems to be galvanizing opinion like no other I have heard for a while. SeanT's reaction is typical (maybe we drink at the same coffee shops?).

    Whether the upturn in Labour's numbers has anything to do with Ed's condemnation I somehow doubt. It was barely whispered. Nonetheless outside the rarefied atmosphere of PB.Com Cameron's refusal to condemn has made many people very angry at what is being done in their name.

    Driving across RoI yesterday and listening to the radio, there was a report of an Irish opinion poll showing large majority support for Israel re Gaza right now. I may have misheard or it may have been a voodoo poll of sorts but, if this is true, what explains the difference between Eire & UK? Are they generally pro "butchery"? Or is it maybe a no-BBC thing?
    I think it's all about the "coffee shops" where you might hear opinions that @Roger‌ and @SeanT espouse vs caffs or MickyDs or Prets of the real world. In my local Costa I can assure you no one is talking about Gaza.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    FrankBooth said:

    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Mike's sample is coincidence - Nevertheless Cameron and Osborne are running out of time to start to shift things in their direction and this ICM poll is dire for the Blue's.

    TickTock.

    Another Nervous Nelly quivering at the sight of a single poll.

    Get a grip of yourself or bugger off to LabourList. Throwing a wobbly at the first sight of gunfire does not inspire confidence especially when the electoral enemy is Ed.

    Tsk ....

    Are you genuinely anti-Ed? I can never remember what your party identification is. I seem to remember when you retired from pb all those years ago you claimed your identity was a parody. Are you secretly a Milibandite?

    He's pro-Jacobite.. that's for sure.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    I think the early triumphalism over one opinion poll in August is fairly silly. The PB Lefties always complain about the PB Tories doing this but the boot is clearly on the other foot today.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    Finally some good news from the Court:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-28753874

    In some ways a rather surprising judgment. The ECtHR has repeatedly ruled that the UK is in breach of the Convention by its uniform exclusion of serving prisoners from voting. But in this case they have declined to provide a remedy other than repeating themselves. This itself is arguably a breach of the Convention which requires an effective remedy for the breach.

    So what is going on? To me it looks like a retreat by the Court. Without changing their position they are effectively inviting the UK to ignore their decisions. IMO this is pretty much the worst of all worlds and quite damaging to the rule of law in this country.

    I know that some of the lawyers who took these cases did so on a speculative basis so the refusal to even award costs in favour of a party whose rights have been breached is also significant. It will be much more difficult for parties to bring this sort of litigation again. There can be no doubt this is deliberate too. And it is again ignoring the effect of such rulings is to close the doors of the Court to those seeking a remedy. Once again this is really not the way that people committed to the rule of law do things.

    It all demonstrates to me where the real problem lies. It lies with a court that is not worthy of respect and to which we have given exceptional and unaccountable power. Theresa May, IMO, is wrong to say we should withdraw from it. I am not sure we even can without withdrawing from the EU as well. The priority should be to reform the Court so it is indeed worthy of respect and operates within the context that the Convention provides rather than constantly seeking to expand its role.

    That looks like a good summary of the state of affairs. Worth noting that the UK had a go at reforming the ECHR back in 2012 - not sure how successful it was

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17762341
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Are we seeing the fist PB Hodges jitters for the next election now ICM has gone Golden Rogue?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,043
    edited August 2014
    As to the polls..fine. Good luck to the voters if they are going to bring in a new Lab govt.

    Voters are never wrong and if they choose Lab over Cons having undergone life with their eyes open over the past 10 years then that would be a calculated choice.

    It might be a choice calculated to bring further ruin (or more likely to see more u-turns than at a plumbers' convention once in power) but it is a choice.

    If people won't see sense then that is entirely their own and their own net worth affair.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Pulpstar

    'They also refused to order the British government to pay the inmates' legal costs.'

    Surely the inmates legal costs were already paid by the government via legal aid?
This discussion has been closed.