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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the “ICM August polls before general elections” rule wor

Five years ago I made a comment on PB that August polls should not be trusted because of the holiday effect and got into an email exchange with Nick Sparrow – then head of polling for ICM.
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The Tories are worried. Removing Gove was not because of his policies; Cameron & co. also can read the polls. Too late ! Teachers are only so much of the giant public sector. 4 years of relentless loss of living standards will have to be paid for.
3 hours 3 minutes 3 seconds
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28738600
William Gladstone, Winston Churchill, Harold Wilson and Margaret Thatcher, William Pitt the Younger, Charles (Earl) Grey, Robert Peel and Clement Attlee.
Paul Lay, editor of History Today magazine, said: "Some -- Winston Churchill, William Gladstone -- need little introduction, yet figures such as Charles Grey, the second Earl Grey, though little known today, played crucial roles in some of British history's most important events, including the Great Reform Act of 1832, which set the country on the path to mass democracy, and the abolition of slavery."
I do not think him very appealing as PM, but the same goes for the other candidates.
"This polling reminds me of what we saw in Scotland ahead of the Holyrood elections in May 2011. Until a month before polling day Labour was enjoying a substantial lead across the range of pollsters and looked set to become once again the top party in the Scottish Parliament with some indications that it could achieve an overall majority.
The pointers that perhaps all was not well for Scottish Labour were the leader ratings when their man was compared with Alex Salmond. Iain Grey was miles behind the SNP leader and in some surveys was even behind his Tory counterpart. In the end the SNP was returned but this time with an overall majority."
This is right: three occurrences do not constitute a rule. One could equally cite 1983, 1987 and 1992 and say that there is a rule of dramatic swingback. Each GE has its own unique story and we won't know the full story of 2015 until 8th May .
Personally I think this is a unique election, given the massive rise of UKIP and the collapse of the Lib Dems I am not certain that pollsters old weighting assumptions apply - be it the "Don't know" allocation of ICM, the Populus Question 8, the ICM assumption that hundreds of thousands of UKIP respondees will fail to make it to the polls because they didn't vote last time.
Alot of weighting assumptions were revised and changed after the 1992 General Election, and they have been shown to work (Past VI weight the samples because Labour is oversampled typically; check certainty to vote - Labour has a disconcerting number of 5/10s compared to Con in Populus normally).
After this General Election some pollsters are going to have to go back and revise methodologies. UKIP can't be simultaenously behind and ahead of the Lib Dems on May 7th 2015. Barring methodology (Or a genuine UKIP collapse/Lib Dem rise) changes this WILL be shown in the night of election polls though.
With more people voting for The Greens, UKIP and tactical voting Lib Dems ><Labour, I expect another coalition to be formed in 2015. As I said in the previous thread, this many not necessarily be Lib/Lab, but could be Lab/Unionist/Nats. If Labour are only just short of a majority, they may look for other options than a deal with the Lib Dems.
Edit: Of those above the DUP may be most likely, if Labour are willing to pay the price which will be some sort of tax/spending bung to Northern Ireland. (Think it will be a C&S deal though, not a coalition - C&S would suit Labour and the DUP better...)
The dvd of Wilson's Prime Minister on Prime Ministers series remains in its shrink-wrap on the shelf, though I see it includes four of the stamps set: Pitt, Peel, Churchill and Atlee.
Quite why is a bit of a mystery to me. I can't think of any recent events that should have impacted on tory support quite so dramatically. Are people really disappointed about our inability to control and sort the problems of the Middle East? Seems unlikely to me.
However, given the known margin of error for a poll of the size that ICM uses, it is worth noting that the performance of August ICM polls in predicting the general elections of 1997, 2001 and 2005 is better than you would expect even from a "perfect" poll.
The other point I would make is that the exception of 2010 is less likely to be due to the rule not "working" for a Tory lead, but simply reflects a situation where a significant slice of the electorate changed their minds in the intervening nine months. Crudely, this suggests that there is a 1-in-4 chance of the electorate decisively changing their mind.
Campaigns and political debate matter. There is still time for the Tories to win votes and for Labour to lose them. Or vice versa...
You know what to use when writing to your Labour MP...
>> Royal Mail honours former British prime ministers in new stamps. http://t.co/3H3EBfnRto
55 minutes 55 seconds
Scotland = Poundland?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28740329
Almost seven out of 10 Scots want to keep the pound, but only 8% want it without a currency union. Probably explain Salmond's silliness. Confirming having it without a currency union is plan B would appeal to almost no-one, so he's pretending a currency union is likely to happen as it's the only popular option.
The logic of accepting ICM as the gold standard (which I do) is not compatible with a move like this being "noise", at least in my opinion.
The Tories are running out of time. There may be some tightening, but to have a majority it needs to be a lead of 6+%, which looks very improbable.
Looking forward to seeing Jacks McARSE in its final outing...
Education -- previously Conservative-voting teachers were alienated by Gove and his replacement has yet to make known her views on Catcher in the Rye.
Education -- this year's graduates have opened champagne, leapt into the nearest river, and compared their debt statements with their employment prospects or lack of same.
Education -- parents across the land have just learned their pride and joy has been denied a place at their first, second and third choice schools, so will now have to schlep across town each morning.
I hope JackW's MacArse proves more accurate than his most famous and consistent prediction because I seriously doubt the veracity of that.
Milliband is an astute tactitian. 35% is enough to get power (though probably not enough for an effective government).
The employment market in this country, especially for graduates, is the best it has been for many years. Many agreed about the long term worry of graduate debt yesterday but it is hardly new.
Are the English only now sorting out where their children will go to school in the new term? Weird. Schools up here sort all that out before they go on holiday.
But yes, government inaction over the Middle East might be a factor. You could compare polls with previous Israel/Gaza flare-ups in, say, 2005 and 2006 to see if they depressed the Labour government's scores.
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 267 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
15 minutes 15 seconds
At least Hague has gone. He has a voice for moral arguments so when they're fake it's worse.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28749814
Could seriously piss off people (and Parliament, for that matter).
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the FINAL McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection.
Should Scotland Be An Independent Country ?
YES 39.5% .. No 60.5%
Turnout Projection 80.5%
Figures rounded to the nearest half point. MoE 1% within a confidence level of 95%
Scotland Remains Within The United Kingdom
......................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
McARSE - My Caledonian Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
'Prisoner vote ruling due today:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28749814
Hopefully the ECHR will continue to be ignored.
Remember, the Election Campaign proper will start after the conference season closes at the end of september. During that campaign the percentage of people voting UKIP will grow far beyond the present 12/15% average in the polls. (average in local elections is now 34%, and ok I know it's different)
The longer ICM ignore UKIP and rely on their 2010 voting figures, the harder will be ICM's (and others) crash when the voters have spoken in May 2015.
Gove’s reforms are aimed at ‘toughening up’ the system, and include scrapping AS-levels and moving from coursework-based assessments to a more exam-intensive courses.
http://labourlist.org/2014/08/labour-would-immediately-halt-goves-a-level-reforms/
Looks like Labour want a further drop down the PISA tables rather than the pursuit of excellence.
I think that UKIP will try and put up as many candidates as is possible for a small, but rising party, although I personally think the full 650 is a big ask.
You'll surely need them.
Lord Neuberger, who is the president of the Supreme Court, said the Act effectively gave the views of the judiciary precedence over Parliament. He said this extra power for judges was a good thing – because it kept governments in check.
British judges have increasingly defied ministers since the Act was passed by Labour in 1998. The Appeal Court shot down rules to prevent sham marriages by ruling they discriminated against immigrants. And judges have used the Act to dismantle attempts to control terror suspects.
In his landmark speech, Lord Neuberger cited a key judgment from June in which the Supreme Court declared it had the power – so far unused – to tell the Government to legalise assisted suicide.
The 1961 Suicide Act makes clear that helping someone to die is a serious crime punishable by up to 14 years in prison. But judges and prosecutors have opened up a defence for those who act out of compassion – defying Parliament’s wishes and effectively wiping out much of the meaning of the law it had laid down.
Lord Neuberger’s intervention comes at a time when the future of the Human Rights Act and the supremacy over British courts of the Strasbourg-based European Court of Human Rights are being questioned.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2722337/
The Home Secretary is advising David Cameron that complete withdrawal, freeing Britain from Strasbourg judges’ edicts, is the only credible option, say Government sources.
The move came as it emerged the number of foreign criminals avoiding deportation rose by 50 per cent last year despite government efforts to clamp down on the problem.
The Conservatives are finalising plans to curtail the role of the European Court of Human Rights in the UK, due to be unveiled at the autumn party conference and included in its manifesto for next year’s general election.
Two of the Government’s biggest defenders of the court and convention – former Attorney General Dominic Grieve and veteran Cabinet minister Kenneth Clarke – were sacked in the Prime Minister’s reshuffle earlier this summer, removing the main internal obstacles to reform.
But senior Tories are understood to be split into those who favour a straightforward withdrawal from the convention and others who are arguing for a ‘halfway house’.
Options include a temporary suspension of Britain’s membership, or attempts to establish pre-eminence for the UK Parliament and Supreme Court, allowing them to override Strasbourg rulings.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2722361/
Truly the country will be a better place.
If people would extricate themselves from their computers for long enough to take a coffee at their local coffee house they would hear conversations about a subject that seems to be galvanizing opinion like no other I have heard for a while. SeanT's reaction is typical (maybe we drink at the same coffee shops?).
Whether the upturn in Labour's numbers has anything to do with Ed's condemnation I somehow doubt. It was barely whispered. Nonetheless outside the rarefied atmosphere of PB.Com Cameron's refusal to condemn has made many people very angry at what is being done in their name.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-28753874
What a contrast to the excellent morning attendances in Glasgow.
There is no noticeable trend
17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (Ed is crap is PM)
8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (Ed is Crap is PM)
12.8.14 LAB 332(330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
TickTock.
Get a grip of yourself or bugger off to LabourList. Throwing a wobbly at the first sight of gunfire does not inspire confidence especially when the electoral enemy is Ed.
Tsk ....
Have we got the tables yet. I'd be interested to see whether the Greens have fallen back.
Almost everyone uses almost all their brain all the time.
The European Court of Human Rights has ruled that the UK has again breached prisoners' rights by failing to give them the vote.
BUT:
Although the court said the inmates, who include sex offenders, had suffered a breach of their rights, they were not entitled to any compensation.
They also refused to order the British government to pay the inmates' legal costs.
Telegraph News @TelegraphNews 11m
British jihadist boasts of fighters preparing for 'martyrdom' http://fw.to/QOXp6rC
The Nervous Nelly and Mrs Miliband Curtain Makers Alliance have one matter in common - they are as but irritant flies around my ARSE - the electoral accuracy of which is unrivalled in the history of mankind.
Not to put too fine a point of it .....
Are PISA rankings reliable anyway? American and German industries appear to be doing all right. Employers seem to prefer soft skills to hard skills, and any skills to knowledge (although whether you can teach skills without knowledge (or vice versa) is a question that rarely exercises the Department or the Blob).
I am Conservative inclined at the moment, but that doesn't mean I'll give them a free-ride.
7% behind with the UK's best pollster less than a year before the election isn't a great position for the Blues to be in.
I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt until Christmas, but I want to see signs of improvement soon...
So what is going on? To me it looks like a retreat by the Court. Without changing their position they are effectively inviting the UK to ignore their decisions. IMO this is pretty much the worst of all worlds and quite damaging to the rule of law in this country.
I know that some of the lawyers who took these cases did so on a speculative basis so the refusal to even award costs in favour of a party whose rights have been breached is also significant. It will be much more difficult for parties to bring this sort of litigation again. There can be no doubt this is deliberate too. And it is again ignoring the effect of such rulings is to close the doors of the Court to those seeking a remedy. Once again this is really not the way that people committed to the rule of law do things.
It all demonstrates to me where the real problem lies. It lies with a court that is not worthy of respect and to which we have given exceptional and unaccountable power. Theresa May, IMO, is wrong to say we should withdraw from it. I am not sure we even can without withdrawing from the EU as well. The priority should be to reform the Court so it is indeed worthy of respect and operates within the context that the Convention provides rather than constantly seeking to expand its role.
"Get a grip of yourself or bugger off to LabourList. Throwing a wobbly at the first sight of gunfire does not inspire confidence especially when the electoral enemy is Ed."
And I always thought your ARSE was an organ with integrity. Not just the wishlist of a Tory supporter......
But the Coalition can do without fair weather friends ....
Away with you and your wretched quivering doubting Thomas allies and go find something on offer that's better !!
Next ....
That looks like a good summary of the state of affairs. Worth noting that the UK had a go at reforming the ECHR back in 2012 - not sure how successful it was
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17762341
Voters are never wrong and if they choose Lab over Cons having undergone life with their eyes open over the past 10 years then that would be a calculated choice.
It might be a choice calculated to bring further ruin (or more likely to see more u-turns than at a plumbers' convention once in power) but it is a choice.
If people won't see sense then that is entirely their own and their own net worth affair.
'They also refused to order the British government to pay the inmates' legal costs.'
Surely the inmates legal costs were already paid by the government via legal aid?