I think the early triumphalism over one opinion poll in August is fairly silly. The PB Lefties always complain about the PB Tories doing this but the boot is clearly on the other foot today.
Amen. ICM are also now quite out of step with the other pollsters. Lab on 38, for example. Clearly a rogue.
"Get a grip of yourself or bugger off to LabourList. Throwing a wobbly at the first sight of gunfire does not inspire confidence especially when the electoral enemy is Ed."
And I always thought your ARSE was an organ with integrity. Not just the wishlist of a Tory supporter......
And you too can take a dose of reality.
Simpering lefties who fail to accept the reality of the disaster that was left in 2010 and for more than four years have moaned and whined as the necessary medicine was administered.
My ARSE tells it like it is and has done so over elections since 2005 when you weren't complaining about Labour returning to power or when it correctly forecast to the level of a gnats marital tackle the Obama wins in 08 and 12.
But now it forecasts that Ed is a dud it must of course be a "Tory supporter"
Take off your partisan blinkers Roger and accept the reality of Labour's chocking defeat in May 2015.
Theresa May is to insist Britain must pull out of the European Convention on Human Rights, to deport dangerous foreign criminals.
The Home Secretary is advising David Cameron that complete withdrawal, freeing Britain from Strasbourg judges’ edicts, is the only credible option, say Government sources.
More empty rhetoric from the Tories on Strasbourg. The government will not denounce the ECHR under article 58 thereof for as long as the United Kingdom remains a member of the European Union. The 'halfway house' options are all utterly intellectually and legally incoherent, and there is not a cat in hells chance that they will be implemented.
Are people really saying that out of the whole of Europe the UK, which created the ECHR, is the only country going to leave it? How then do we spout morals to the rest of the world? UK citizens have always had a right to appeal to it, it is labour who incorporated it into UK law and UK judges making daft decisions. The ECHR has nothing to do with the EU. Even if we left the EU it will not go away and it would be silly to think that any subsequent deal with it would not only involve Schengen (where we currently have an opt out) but also the ECHR.
True, but this election is different because of the high UKIP vote. Even in 2005 the high LD vote preferred Blair to Howard, UKIP voters prefer Cameron to Miliband
UKIP voters prefer Farage to either and the vast majority will vote UKIP to get UKIP. Remember, the Election Campaign proper will start after the conference season closes at the end of september. During that campaign the percentage of people voting UKIP will grow far beyond the present 12/15% average in the polls. (average in local elections is now 34%, and ok I know it's different)
The longer ICM ignore UKIP and rely on their 2010 voting figures, the harder will be ICM's (and others) crash when the voters have spoken in May 2015.
Genuine question to you and/or Isam or anyone that knows. Clearly UKIP will be targeting a relatively small number of seats (ie less than 50 I imagine, with fewer than that being heavily targeted) - but do you know what you are planning to do in the remainder? Is there a genuine attempt to stand 650 candidates and how close do you think that you will be to that? Essentially, if UKIP stand in (say) Bootle it will make no difference to the number of seats that they get, but cumulatively it will make a big difference to the vote share achieved.
I cannot say with absolute authority, because it changes week to week, but I believe that UKIP have already selected 180+ candidates for GE2015. The selection process is well under way in many other areas.
I think that UKIP will try and put up as many candidates as is possible for a small, but rising party, although I personally think the full 650 is a big ask.
Won't it be brilliant when Ed is PM, Kippers have a solitary seat and every 3 months their Mp gets to ask a question at PMQs about the lack of In/Out referendum. Truly the country will be a better place.
I think the early triumphalism over one opinion poll in August is fairly silly. The PB Lefties always complain about the PB Tories doing this but the boot is clearly on the other foot today.
Who is triumphant, I said yesterday it was an outlier. It is quite entertaining watching a wobble of sorts amongst the PB Hodges.
True, but this election is different because of the high UKIP vote. Even in 2005 the high LD vote preferred Blair to Howard, UKIP voters prefer Cameron to Miliband
UKIP voters prefer Farage to either and the vast majority will vote UKIP to get UKIP. Remember, the Election Campaign proper will start after the conference season closes at the end of september. During that campaign the percentage of people voting UKIP will grow far beyond the present 12/15% average in the polls. (average in local elections is now 34%, and ok I know it's different)
The longer ICM ignore UKIP and rely on their 2010 voting figures, the harder will be ICM's (and others) crash when the voters have spoken in May 2015.
Genuine question to you and/or Isam or anyone that knows. Clearly UKIP will be targeting a relatively small number of seats (ie less than 50 I imagine, with fewer than that being heavily targeted) - but do you know what you are planning to do in the remainder? Is there a genuine attempt to stand 650 candidates and how close do you think that you will be to that? Essentially, if UKIP stand in (say) Bootle it will make no difference to the number of seats that they get, but cumulatively it will make a big difference to the vote share achieved.
I cannot say with absolute authority, because it changes week to week, but I believe that UKIP have already selected 180+ candidates for GE2015. The selection process is well under way in many other areas.
I think that UKIP will try and put up as many candidates as is possible for a small, but rising party, although I personally think the full 650 is a big ask.
Won't it be brilliant when Ed is PM, Kippers have a solitary seat and every 3 months their Mp gets to ask a question at PMQs about the lack of In/Out referendum. Truly the country will be a better place.
The real consequence of UKIP.
At least all the UKIP MEP's will still be on the gravy train though, while complaining about how they hate the whole thing of course, LOL!
The bad news - I predict a recurrence of the very tedious panda versus Conservative MP numbers joke [amusing originally but any mirth has long since been eroded by ceaseless repetition].
I think the early triumphalism over one opinion poll in August is fairly silly. The PB Lefties always complain about the PB Tories doing this but the boot is clearly on the other foot today.
What utter crap are you talking about ? There have been only 2/3 ***overs this year and you guys were having collective orgasms.
Every time Labour took another rebounding lead, your consolation was the Gold Standard. Now, at least, for one month you have well and truly been shafted.
I think the early triumphalism over one opinion poll in August is fairly silly. The PB Lefties always complain about the PB Tories doing this but the boot is clearly on the other foot today.
Who is triumphant, I said yesterday it was an outlier. It is quite entertaining watching a wobble of sorts amongst the PB Hodges.
Everyone else except you - who are just too boring to be triumphant.
The reason for the widening of the polling gap I would attribute to Cameron's apparent support for Israel's butchery in Gaza.
If people would extricate themselves from their computers for long enough to take a coffee at their local coffee house they would hear conversations about a subject that seems to be galvanizing opinion like no other I have heard for a while. SeanT's reaction is typical (maybe we drink at the same coffee shops?).
Whether the upturn in Labour's numbers has anything to do with Ed's condemnation I somehow doubt. It was barely whispered. Nonetheless outside the rarefied atmosphere of PB.Com Cameron's refusal to condemn has made many people very angry at what is being done in their name.
I do not know that anything is being done "in our name" as such, which suggests some kind of proactive support for Israel. It is true that Cameron has refused to engage in any kind of anti-Israeli grandstanding, and I expect he takes the view that this would be at best useless as a means of influencing the Jewish state.
I think the early triumphalism over one opinion poll in August is fairly silly. The PB Lefties always complain about the PB Tories doing this but the boot is clearly on the other foot today.
Who is triumphant, I said yesterday it was an outlier. It is quite entertaining watching a wobble of sorts amongst the PB Hodges.
Everyone else except you - who are just too boring to be triumphant.
Further on the topic of daft UK judges - report in the Times...
'British judges should be more willing to ignore rulings from the European Court of Human Rights, the country’s most senior judge has said. Lord Neuberger of Abbotsbury, president of the Supreme Court, admitted that judges in this country had sometimes been too ready to follow decisions from the Strasbourg-based court. '
' “UK judges have, I suspect, sometimes been too ready to assume that a decision, even a single decision of a section of that court, represents the law according to Strasbourg, and accordingly to follow it,” Lord Neuberger said in a speech at the Supreme Court of Victoria in Melbourne. “[The Strasbourg court] is a civilian court under enormous pressure . . . and whose judgments are often initially prepared by staffers, and who have produced a number of inconsistent decisions.” He added: “I think that we are beginning to see that the traditional common law approach may not be appropriate, at least to the extent that we should be more ready not to follow Strasbourg chamber decisions.” '
Based on this UK judges need to start doing a proper job and its reform not exit we need.
I don't know if RN's about, but this backs up my argument that Osborne's decisions to let HRMC run riot with ordinary people are a complete catastrophe for the conservatives.
"‘White Dee’ to address event at Conservative Conference
“Last year saw Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith debate with former editor of ConservativeHome Tim Montgomerie. But this year, the Policy Exchange has decided to pair a representative with 47-year-old Ms Kelly in a debate chaired by Newsnight presenter Allegra Stratton. Ms Kelly insists she has been waiting for an opportunity to lend her own voice to the serious arena of policy-making. She hopes to take David Cameron out for a drink afterwards.” – Daily Telegraph
The bad news - I predict a recurrence of the very tedious panda versus Conservative MP numbers joke [amusing originally but any mirth has long since been eroded by ceaseless repetition].
Yes, that one's gone stale. What we're waiting for now is when there will be more Pandas than Lib Dem MPs in Scotland. What's the gestation period?
You are going to be super excitable on the day itself! Will be a sight to behold.
I am actually going to allocate a swing seat to all PB Hodges, some lucky ones are going to get two, so through the night even when the Tories are dropping like nine pins, each PB Hodge can have their own little celebration when their seat turns Labour. We will all be in it together!
Theresa May is to insist Britain must pull out of the European Convention on Human Rights, to deport dangerous foreign criminals.
The Home Secretary is advising David Cameron that complete withdrawal, freeing Britain from Strasbourg judges’ edicts, is the only credible option, say Government sources.
More empty rhetoric from the Tories on Strasbourg. The government will not denounce the ECHR under article 58 thereof for as long as the United Kingdom remains a member of the European Union. The 'halfway house' options are all utterly intellectually and legally incoherent, and there is not a cat in hells chance that they will be implemented.
Are people really saying that out of the whole of Europe the UK, which created the ECHR, is the only country going to leave it? How then do we spout morals to the rest of the world? UK citizens have always had a right to appeal to it, it is labour who incorporated it into UK law and UK judges making daft decisions. The ECHR has nothing to do with the EU. Even if we left the EU it will not go away and it would be silly to think that any subsequent deal with it would not only involve Schengen (where we currently have an opt out) but also the ECHR.
Is it really our business to "spout morals" to the rest of the world?
@ Pulpstar "After this General Election some pollsters are going to have to go back and revise methodologies. UKIP can't be simultaenously behind and ahead of the Lib Dems on May 7th 2015. Barring methodology (Or a genuine UKIP collapse/Lib Dem rise) changes this WILL be shown in the night of election polls though."
It would be interesting to get a credible explanation of the methodology used by ICM that somehow manages to understate UKIP by a ridiculous amount compared to other pollsters between elections in defiance of the real results of real council elections every week, and then mysteriously always come into line with the other pollsters, conveniently just before a national election.
I fancy it is a nailed on certainty that ICM will come into line as the election approaches, the interesting bet will be the date it happens and the reasoning, which begs the question why so much credibility it placed and any ICM mid term poll. It would be interesting to see the results of ICM polling on issues where there is an actual result to compare their performance against, and where there are no other companies polling, therefore no trend to follow.
I find it incredible that in another week when UKIP continued accruing anywhere from 20% to 40+% in local elections, ICM comes up with 10%, yet hardly anybody bats an eyelid at the inconsistency.
Has anybody actually challenged them about the reasons for their mysterious pre-election uprating at every election, or are we just to accept the term 'Gold Standard' in the same sense as we are expected to consider Boris as PM material.
10% is a plausible figure for UKIP in a general election. But, if UKIP poll 10%, the Conservatives will be polling c.35%, not 31%.
The reason for the widening of the polling gap I would attribute to Cameron's apparent support for Israel's butchery in Gaza.
If people would extricate themselves from their computers for long enough to take a coffee at their local coffee house they would hear conversations about a subject that seems to be galvanizing opinion like no other I have heard for a while. SeanT's reaction is typical (maybe we drink at the same coffee shops?).
Whether the upturn in Labour's numbers has anything to do with Ed's condemnation I somehow doubt. It was barely whispered. Nonetheless outside the rarefied atmosphere of PB.Com Cameron's refusal to condemn has made many people very angry at what is being done in their name.
There has been no widening of the polling gap, overall. There have been polls showing the gap narrowing and widening, but all of them based on a basic Labour lead of 3% or so.
Gaza was just as much in the news last Friday, when Populus put the Conservatives ahead.
You are going to be super excitable on the day itself! Will be a sight to behold.
I am actually going to allocate a swing seat to all PB Hodges, some lucky ones are going to get two, so through the night even when the Tories are dropping like nine pins, each PB Hodge can have their own little celebration when their seat turns Labour. We will all be in it together!
Will you be making a list... and checking it twice?
"Expats who rent out their homes in Britain will be stripped of the right to use the personal allowance, under a tax raid prepared by George Osborne. " Retirees drawing a Government pension are also likely to be hit by the proposals, which could cut a couple’s income by up to £4,000 a year"
You are going to be super excitable on the day itself! Will be a sight to behold.
I am actually going to allocate a swing seat to all PB Hodges, some lucky ones are going to get two, so through the night even when the Tories are dropping like nine pins, each PB Hodge can have their own little celebration when their seat turns Labour. We will all be in it together!
Will you be making a list... and checking it twice?
Don't worry RobD, I will make sure you get two seats high on the Labour target list. Cannot have you posting on PB on the night with a titty lip.
The reason for the widening of the polling gap I would attribute to Cameron's apparent support for Israel's butchery in Gaza.
If people would extricate themselves from their computers for long enough to take a coffee at their local coffee house they would hear conversations about a subject that seems to be galvanizing opinion like no other I have heard for a while. SeanT's reaction is typical (maybe we drink at the same coffee shops?).
Whether the upturn in Labour's numbers has anything to do with Ed's condemnation I somehow doubt. It was barely whispered. Nonetheless outside the rarefied atmosphere of PB.Com Cameron's refusal to condemn has made many people very angry at what is being done in their name.
There has been no widening of the polling gap, overall. There have been polls showing the gap narrowing and widening, but all of them based on a basic Labour lead of 3% or so.
Gaza was just as much in the news last Friday, when Populus put the Conservatives ahead.
Yougov seems to have a solid 4% lead for Labour this month, I think there might be a genuine small uptick there. But yeah, it's definitely silly to put so much weight on a single ICM poll that looks so much like it's at least somewhat an outlier.
These things can matter though, especially going into conference season where internal party mood is so important. If yougov stays on 4% and there's one or two more good polls before the conferences, Ed will have a much better chance at setting party jitters to rest
'They also refused to order the British government to pay the inmates' legal costs.'
Surely the inmates legal costs were already paid by the government via legal aid?
Not completely. In Scotland at least there are 2 types of LA. There is advice and assistance which allows initial investigations, correspondence etc. Then there is full LA which is available for courts and other very limited tribunals within the UK. It does not cover either appearing before or preparing written submissions for the ECtHR. As I understand it from friends this work was done on a speculative basis and will now not be paid for.
Before I drown in the metaphorical crocodile tears shed for lawyers in such cases people should remember that a legal right which you cannot enforce is no right at all.That may be ok for the muppets in the ECtHR but it is something we have long recognised in this country as being contrary to the rule of law.
I don't know if RN's about, but this backs up my argument that Osborne's decisions to let HRMC run riot with ordinary people are a complete catastrophe for the conservatives.
They deserve everything they are getting.
I think the problem is they simply need more tax; we are still overspending and over-borrowing.
If anyone suggests cutting tax we get cries of "the 1%", "tax cuts for millionaires", etc and the Tories drop in the polls.
It might be better off for the country in the longer term to cut taxes and encourage prosperity, but trying to do it politically seems impossible. We may end up as another France (or worse) as envy drives the country into the ground.
You are going to be super excitable on the day itself! Will be a sight to behold.
I am actually going to allocate a swing seat to all PB Hodges, some lucky ones are going to get two, so through the night even when the Tories are dropping like nine pins, each PB Hodge can have their own little celebration when their seat turns Labour. We will all be in it together!
Will you be making a list... and checking it twice?
You better watch out, Basil Claus is coming to town.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 28m Balance of opinion within the Labour party is shifting towards military intervention in Iraq. I expect Ed Miliband to call for it soon.
You are going to be super excitable on the day itself! Will be a sight to behold.
I am actually going to allocate a swing seat to all PB Hodges, some lucky ones are going to get two, so through the night even when the Tories are dropping like nine pins, each PB Hodge can have their own little celebration when their seat turns Labour. We will all be in it together!
Will you be making a list... and checking it twice?
You better watch out, Basil Claus is coming to town.
JonnyJimmy. Maybe you misheard? Or maybe we have a tradition of supporting the underdog which the Irish dont? If you're right it's very much out of kilter with the rest of Europe.
One thing Ed could usefully do post-referendum is bring Darling back to the frontline. He sorely needs figures with his kind of standing, which will, of course, be considerably enhanced by his having saved the union.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 28m Balance of opinion within the Labour party is shifting towards military intervention in Iraq. I expect Ed Miliband to call for it soon.
What does he know of the Labour Party ? Or, did David give him a call from New York ?
@ Pulpstar "After this General Election some pollsters are going to have to go back and revise methodologies. UKIP can't be simultaenously behind and ahead of the Lib Dems on May 7th 2015. Barring methodology (Or a genuine UKIP collapse/Lib Dem rise) changes this WILL be shown in the night of election polls though."
It would be interesting to get a credible explanation of the methodology used by ICM that somehow manages to understate UKIP by a ridiculous amount compared to other pollsters between elections in defiance of the real results of real council elections every week, and then mysteriously always come into line with the other pollsters, conveniently just before a national election.
I fancy it is a nailed on certainty that ICM will come into line as the election approaches, the interesting bet will be the date it happens and the reasoning, which begs the question why so much credibility it placed and any ICM mid term poll. It would be interesting to see the results of ICM polling on issues where there is an actual result to compare their performance against, and where there are no other companies polling, therefore no trend to follow.
I find it incredible that in another week when UKIP continued accruing anywhere from 20% to 40+% in local elections, ICM comes up with 10%, yet hardly anybody bats an eyelid at the inconsistency.
Has anybody actually challenged them about the reasons for their mysterious pre-election uprating at every election, or are we just to accept the term 'Gold Standard' in the same sense as we are expected to consider Boris as PM material.
ICM in March had labour on 35 for euros and ukip at 20
Still cited as the Gold Standard even after that, because as you say, they caught up nearer the time
Ukip went from 16 to 9 last month, labour went from -1 to +7 this... Any other pollster and PB peeps would be ripping it out of them
One thing Ed could usefully do post-referendum is bring Darling back to the frontline. He sorely needs figures with his kind of standing, which will, of course, be considerably enhanced by his having saved the union.
''I think the problem is they simply need more tax; we are still overspending and over-borrowing.'
Here's a novel idea. Slash spending. We'll only ever get so much money from the tax take.
Osborne is in thrall to the statists at the treasury, promising him fool's gold through the power of increasingly unfettered government.
Its political weapons grade plutonium, especially for tories. The fact he doesn't realise it tells you all you need to know about the man's affiliations.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 28m Balance of opinion within the Labour party is shifting towards military intervention in Iraq. I expect Ed Miliband to call for it soon.
What does he know of the Labour Party ? Or, did David give him a call from New York ?
Would that be Mr "Source without name", ex of the party and allround Cameroon lickspittal. Oh, and King of the PB Hodges.
@ Pulpstar "After this General Election some pollsters are going to have to go back and revise methodologies. UKIP can't be simultaenously behind and ahead of the Lib Dems on May 7th 2015. Barring methodology (Or a genuine UKIP collapse/Lib Dem rise) changes this WILL be shown in the night of election polls though."
It would be interesting to get a credible explanation of the methodology used by ICM that somehow manages to understate UKIP by a ridiculous amount compared to other pollsters between elections in defiance of the real results of real council elections every week, and then mysteriously always come into line with the other pollsters, conveniently just before a national election.
I fancy it is a nailed on certainty that ICM will come into line as the election approaches, the interesting bet will be the date it happens and the reasoning, which begs the question why so much credibility it placed and any ICM mid term poll. It would be interesting to see the results of ICM polling on issues where there is an actual result to compare their performance against, and where there are no other companies polling, therefore no trend to follow.
I find it incredible that in another week when UKIP continued accruing anywhere from 20% to 40+% in local elections, ICM comes up with 10%, yet hardly anybody bats an eyelid at the inconsistency.
Has anybody actually challenged them about the reasons for their mysterious pre-election uprating at every election, or are we just to accept the term 'Gold Standard' in the same sense as we are expected to consider Boris as PM material.
ICM in March had labour on 35 for euros and ukip at 20
Still cited as the Gold Standard even after that, because as you say, they caught up nearer the time
Ukip went from 16 to 9 last month, labour went from -1 to +7 this... Any other pollster and PB peeps would be ripping it out of them
I guess like Alistair Cook with his batting they get more leeway rather than a relative newcomer like Lord Ashcroft's polls.
ICM do have a decent track record. But they have the occasional statistical duck like the 35 - 20 March ICM Euro poll.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 28m Balance of opinion within the Labour party is shifting towards military intervention in Iraq. I expect Ed Miliband to call for it soon.
What does he know of the Labour Party ? Or, did David give him a call from New York ?
Would that be Mr "Source without name", ex of the party and allround Cameroon lickspittal. Oh, and King of the PB Hodges.
He'll have one of those private polls on the matter.
In his rush to play to labour's 'fairness' agenda, Osborne is destroying what is left of the tories' core support.
31% might be a high point!!
It has been suggested in the past that many ex-villains have invested their ill-gotten gains in the private landlord game. Capital gains and a steady income subsidised by housing benefits courtesy of that nice Mr Duncan Smith. Keeps them off street corners, I suppose, or wherever they sell drugs and snide fags these days.
''I think the problem is they simply need more tax; we are still overspending and over-borrowing.'
Here's a novel idea. Slash spending. We'll only ever get so much money from the tax take.
Osborne is in thrall to the statists at the treasury, promising him fool's gold through the power of increasingly unfettered government.
Its political weapons grade plutonium, especially for tories. The fact he doesn't realise it tells you all you need to know about the man's affiliations.
Dire isn't it - although I'm voting Conservative, if I wasn't betting on this election I wouldn't give a hoot as to whether Cameron or Miliband 'won'.
One thing Ed could usefully do post-referendum is bring Darling back to the frontline. He sorely needs figures with his kind of standing, which will, of course, be considerably enhanced by his having saved the union.
Darling has experience of running the likes of DWP and Business. In that sense he has a lot to offer. He is a figure from the last government though when Labour really need a new image. Should also be remembered that in his initial review into the financial sector in the immediate aftermath of the crisis there was no call for major reform.
The one thing polls like this (and indeed the events of last week) show is the potential of debates or media events as game-changers. Now, NIck Clegg will be the first to tell you winning one debate doesn't win you an election but the debates do move or dislodge blocs of opinion which had previously seemed to be set.
I suspect this ICM poll (if repeated) will mean there will be some form of televised debate during next year's GE campaign as some will see the potential for transforming a poor position into a better one (though the risk of making it an even worse one is there as well as again Nick Clegg will tell you).
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 5m #RIPRobinWilliams When I lived in Boulder in 2011, was a few blocks away from Mork and Mindy house. "Nanu, Nanu", Robin, you will be missed
@ Pulpstar "After this General Election some pollsters are going to have to go back and revise methodologies. UKIP can't be simultaenously behind and ahead of the Lib Dems on May 7th 2015. Barring methodology (Or a genuine UKIP collapse/Lib Dem rise) changes this WILL be shown in the night of election polls though."
It would be interesting to get a credible explanation of the methodology used by ICM that somehow manages to understate UKIP by a ridiculous amount compared to other pollsters between elections in defiance of the real results of real council elections every week, and then mysteriously always come into line with the other pollsters, conveniently just before a national election.
I fancy it is a nailed on certainty that ICM will come into line as the election approaches, the interesting bet will be the date it happens and the reasoning, which begs the question why so much credibility it placed and any ICM mid term poll. It would be interesting to see the results of ICM polling on issues where there is an actual result to compare their performance against, and where there are no other companies polling, therefore no trend to follow.
I find it incredible that in another week when UKIP continued accruing anywhere from 20% to 40+% in local elections, ICM comes up with 10%, yet hardly anybody bats an eyelid at the inconsistency.
Has anybody actually challenged them about the reasons for their mysterious pre-election uprating at every election, or are we just to accept the term 'Gold Standard' in the same sense as we are expected to consider Boris as PM material.
ICM in March had labour on 35 for euros and ukip at 20
Still cited as the Gold Standard even after that, because as you say, they caught up nearer the time
Ukip went from 16 to 9 last month, labour went from -1 to +7 this... Any other pollster and PB peeps would be ripping it out of them
I guess like Alistair Cook with his batting they get more leeway rather than a relative newcomer like Lord Ashcroft's polls.
ICM do have a decent track record. But they have the occasional statistical duck like the 35 - 20 March ICM Euro poll.
To be fair, I only really got into political betting this term, so maybe it's just that I haven't seen the results myself... Just seems strange that one pollster gets so much respect when they seem, to me, to have as many outrageous outliers as any other
If Scotland votes No, Ed's job will be far easier!
Easier to form a minority Government as SLAB will be staying for the full term. Scotland voting convincingly "No" probably means a South Ochil & Perthshire hold from the SNP. In terms of seats in the next HoC it won't make much odds.
One thing Ed could usefully do post-referendum is bring Darling back to the frontline. He sorely needs figures with his kind of standing, which will, of course, be considerably enhanced by his having saved the union.
Darling has experience of running the likes of DWP and Business. In that sense he has a lot to offer. He is a figure from the last government though when Labour really need a new image. Should also be remembered that in his initial review into the financial sector in the immediate aftermath of the crisis there was no call for major reform.
Darling has already been Chancellor, and unless he thinks he can replace Miliband, he might prefer to be next Labour First Minister of Scotland, where he can actually get more done, especially after devo max. But he will have a pretty wide choice.
He added: “I think that we are beginning to see that the traditional common law approach may not be appropriate, at least to the extent that we should be more ready not to follow Strasbourg chamber decisions.”
I think that is the nub of the problem. British courts, based on the Common Law tradition, regard ECHR decisions, no matter how bonkers or inconsistent, as precedents. That's not how continental law systems work, which is perhaps why this is an issue in the UK but not, in general, elsewhere.
''if I wasn't betting on this election I wouldn't give a hoot as to whether Cameron or Miliband 'won''.
Why not vote neither? if the tories get beat we might get a real tory leader out of it, instead of these statists.
Won't make much difference how I vote here in NE Derbyshire, its going to be as safe a Labour hold as you'll see.
I'd like to see May as next Conservative leader.
Edit: I can't believe White Dee is heading to the Conservative conference. Labour would be getting all sorts of pelters if she was lined up to go there.
One thing Ed could usefully do post-referendum is bring Darling back to the frontline. He sorely needs figures with his kind of standing, which will, of course, be considerably enhanced by his having saved the union.
Darling has experience of running the likes of DWP and Business. In that sense he has a lot to offer. He is a figure from the last government though when Labour really need a new image. Should also be remembered that in his initial review into the financial sector in the immediate aftermath of the crisis there was no call for major reform.
Darling has already been Chancellor, and unless he thinks he can replace Miliband, he might prefer to be next Labour First Minister of Scotland, where he can actually get more done, especially after devo max. But he will have a pretty wide choice.
I can imagine Ed asking himto head up some kind of commission on devolution/future of the UK blah de blah. I suspect he'll be one of those elder statesmen often sought for their wise counsel. I doubt he'd have an official role though.
ICM in March had labour on 35 for euros and ukip at 20
Still cited as the Gold Standard even after that, because as you say, they caught up nearer the time
Ukip went from 16 to 9 last month, labour went from -1 to +7 this... Any other pollster and PB peeps would be ripping it out of them
I guess like Alistair Cook with his batting they get more leeway rather than a relative newcomer like Lord Ashcroft's polls.
ICM do have a decent track record. But they have the occasional statistical duck like the 35 - 20 March ICM Euro poll.
To be fair, I only really got into political betting this term, so maybe it's just that I haven't seen the results myself... Just seems strange that one pollster gets so much respect when they seem, to me, to have as many outrageous outliers as any other
Fair point re cook comparison
I pointed out to you, that in May/June 2009, ICM were proved wrong on the Euros, but a year later, they earned their gold standard stripes at the general election.
To use another cricketing analogy, you're using the form in t20 cricket, to judge whether someone should be in the test team or not.
Since 1997 onwards, they've been most accurate in 3 out of the 4 general elections, and got the AV referendum spot on.
That's the sort of track record that deserves praise.
Just like YouGov's track record in the London Mayoral and Euro elections deserves praise.
My own hunch is this, ICM become the gold standard in elections with the higher the turnout.
Something we should bear in mind with the Indyref with the high turnout level anticipated.
Two in five British people wish more politicians were like Boris Johnson, a ComRes poll for ITV News has found.
Some 28% of Britons believe Mr Johnson - who recently announced his intention to return to parliament - would make a better Prime Minister than David Cameron while 44% think he would be better-suited to the role than Ed Miliband.
More Britons think the Mayor of London is weirder than any of the four main party leaders, with a third saying Mr Johnson is not a serious politician.
But 35% said they would like to see Boris Johnson representing the UK on the global stage.
He was also found to be the second most trusted politician on the economy behind David Cameron, according to the poll of 2,031 British adults.
''Edit: I can't believe White Dee is heading to the Conservative conference. Labour would be getting all sorts of pelters if she was lined up to go there.''
They are losing their minds.
I live in a very very safe tory seat, but am tempted to vote in a way that suggests to my MP that nowhere is safe if they keep coming up with this lefty clap trap
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 28m Balance of opinion within the Labour party is shifting towards military intervention in Iraq. I expect Ed Miliband to call for it soon.
What does he know of the Labour Party ? Or, did David give him a call from New York ?
Would that be Mr "Source without name", ex of the party and allround Cameroon lickspittal. Oh, and King of the PB Hodges.
He'll have one of those private polls on the matter.
ARF! You mean like his Tory Party marginal poll that not even the Tories had seen......cuckoo!!!
Figures rounded to the nearest half point. MoE 1% within a confidence level of 95%
Wow! No-one can accuse you of being vague.
My ARSE has a reputation to uphold. "Vague" does not compute.
JackW doesn't know his ARSE from the Sunil on Sunday's ELBOW!
ELBOW - Electoral Leader-board of the Week
As the "Sunil on Sunday" has published recently as often as a YES poll lead we my safely assume your ELBOW is bust - much like Labour party economic policy.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 28m Balance of opinion within the Labour party is shifting towards military intervention in Iraq. I expect Ed Miliband to call for it soon.
What does he know of the Labour Party ? Or, did David give him a call from New York ?
Would that be Mr "Source without name", ex of the party and allround Cameroon lickspittal. Oh, and King of the PB Hodges.
He'll have one of those private polls on the matter.
ARF! You mean like his Tory Party marginal poll that not even the Tories had seen......cuckoo!!!
I wrote a letter to the PCC about that article - two secs I'll get the reply.
He added: “I think that we are beginning to see that the traditional common law approach may not be appropriate, at least to the extent that we should be more ready not to follow Strasbourg chamber decisions.”
I think that is the nub of the problem. British courts, based on the Common Law tradition, regard ECHR decisions, no matter how bonkers or inconsistent, as precedents. That's not how continental law systems work, which is perhaps why this is an issue in the UK but not, in general, elsewhere.
If one case can be ignored because the judgement it is bonkers or inconsistent, but might not be ignored by a different set of judges then who knows what the law is and how one should behave to stay within it? Such an approach reduces the law to a lottery.
Mind you, given that in English Law a precedent is only a precedent until the Supreme Court decides it isn't any more, there has long been a body opinion that the law is a lottery anyway. Many years ago A.P. Herbert wrote a piece that suggested that as nobody ever knew what the House of Lords (as the Supreme Court then was) would decide in any particular case, its judgements had the same effect as an Act of God and should be treated in law as such.
''if I wasn't betting on this election I wouldn't give a hoot as to whether Cameron or Miliband 'won''.
Why not vote neither? if the tories get beat we might get a real tory leader out of it, instead of these statists.
Won't make much difference how I vote here in NE Derbyshire, its going to be as safe a Labour hold as you'll see.
I'd like to see May as next Conservative leader.
Edit: I can't believe White Dee is heading to the Conservative conference. Labour would be getting all sorts of pelters if she was lined up to go there.
Cn you imagine the PB Hodge fury about benefits and scroungers if old White Dee was invited to the Labour Party Conference. Invite her to the Tory Party Conference and you can just about hear that pin drop.
Commission’s decision in the case of "Millie" v The Daily Telegraph
The complainant considered that the newspaper had breached Clause 1 (Accuracy) of the Editors’ Code of Practice, in a comment piece about the popularity of the Conservative Party. The article referenced a poll of key seats, which the Conservative Party had rerun, obtaining a different result. The complainant said the Conservative Party’s result must be inaccurate and that as the Conservative’s version of the poll was now partially in the public domain, the poll should be fully disclosed in accordance with the rules of the British Polling Council. Alternatively, the complainant suggested that the poll did not exist, and if this was the case, its inclusion in the article was misleading.
Clause 1 (Accuracy) states “the press must take care not to publish inaccurate, misleading or distorted information” and that “a significant inaccuracy, misleading statement or distortion once recognised must be corrected, promptly and with due prominence”.
The Commission acknowledged the complainant’s concerns for the importance of good practice in polling techniques and over the results that the Conservative Party had achieved. However, the Commission had regard for the fact that the newspaper had set out the context of the poll and clearly attributed the results to the rerun undertaken by the Conservative Party. As such, readers were aware that the results were not independent, with the poll known to be undertaken by a party with an interest in achieving a favourable result. Readers were therefore able to make their own assessment about how much reliance to place on an internal, undisclosed poll and the Commission did not find the poll’s inclusion, or its partially public status, to be misleading or inaccurate in breach of Clause 1.
Further, whilst the Commission noted the complainant’s suggestion that the internal poll might not exist. This appeared to be speculation and in the absence of any specific information in this regard, no breach was noted.
There was no breach of the Code of the Editors’ Code of Practice.
Figures rounded to the nearest half point. MoE 1% within a confidence level of 95%
Wow! No-one can accuse you of being vague.
My ARSE has a reputation to uphold. "Vague" does not compute.
JackW doesn't know his ARSE from the Sunil on Sunday's ELBOW!
ELBOW - Electoral Leader-board of the Week
As the "Sunil on Sunday" has published recently as often as a YES poll lead we my safely assume your ELBOW is bust - much like Labour party economic policy.
Patience! The Sunil's editorial team are merely perfecting it!
''if I wasn't betting on this election I wouldn't give a hoot as to whether Cameron or Miliband 'won''.
Why not vote neither? if the tories get beat we might get a real tory leader out of it, instead of these statists.
Won't make much difference how I vote here in NE Derbyshire, its going to be as safe a Labour hold as you'll see.
I'd like to see May as next Conservative leader.
Edit: I can't believe White Dee is heading to the Conservative conference. Labour would be getting all sorts of pelters if she was lined up to go there.
Cn you imagine the PB Hodge fury about benefits and scroungers if old White Dee was invited to the Labour Party Conference. Invite her to the Tory Party Conference and you can just about hear that pin drop.
Edit: I can't believe White Dee is heading to the Conservative conference. Labour would be getting all sorts of pelters if she was lined up to go there.
IDS will lay his hands on her and cure her of being a scrounger.Failing that he'll just sanction her benefits and refer her to the Foodbank.I hope she doesn't remind him how he claimed on expenses for underpants and £100 for Wet Wipes.
Commission’s decision in the case of "Millie" v The Daily Telegraph
The complainant considered that the newspaper had breached Clause 1 (Accuracy) of the Editors’ Code of Practice, in a comment piece about the popularity of the Conservative Party. The article referenced a poll of key seats, which the Conservative Party had rerun, obtaining a different result. The complainant said the Conservative Party’s result must be inaccurate and that as the Conservative’s version of the poll was now partially in the public domain, the poll should be fully disclosed in accordance with the rules of the British Polling Council. Alternatively, the complainant suggested that the poll did not exist, and if this was the case, its inclusion in the article was misleading.
Clause 1 (Accuracy) states “the press must take care not to publish inaccurate, misleading or distorted information” and that “a significant inaccuracy, misleading statement or distortion once recognised must be corrected, promptly and with due prominence”.
The Commission acknowledged the complainant’s concerns for the importance of good practice in polling techniques and over the results that the Conservative Party had achieved. However, the Commission had regard for the fact that the newspaper had set out the context of the poll and clearly attributed the results to the rerun undertaken by the Conservative Party. As such, readers were aware that the results were not independent, with the poll known to be undertaken by a party with an interest in achieving a favourable result. Readers were therefore able to make their own assessment about how much reliance to place on an internal, undisclosed poll and the Commission did not find the poll’s inclusion, or its partially public status, to be misleading or inaccurate in breach of Clause 1.
Further, whilst the Commission noted the complainant’s suggestion that the internal poll might not exist. This appeared to be speculation and in the absence of any specific information in this regard, no breach was noted.
There was no breach of the Code of the Editors’ Code of Practice.
Reference no. xxxxxx
Did the said ghost poll ever get made public? Going on that letter, any loon can quote a poll that doesn't exist and unless someone can prove it doesn't, well that is that, there is no breach.
Figures rounded to the nearest half point. MoE 1% within a confidence level of 95%
Wow! No-one can accuse you of being vague.
My ARSE has a reputation to uphold. "Vague" does not compute.
JackW doesn't know his ARSE from the Sunil on Sunday's ELBOW!
ELBOW - Electoral Leader-board of the Week
As the "Sunil on Sunday" has published recently as often as a YES poll lead we my safely assume your ELBOW is bust - much like Labour party economic policy.
Patience! The Sunil's editorial team are merely perfecting it!
I'm not too sure PB can wait until SeanT becomes a virgin again .... Yes that long !!
Figures rounded to the nearest half point. MoE 1% within a confidence level of 95%
Wow! No-one can accuse you of being vague.
My ARSE has a reputation to uphold. "Vague" does not compute.
JackW doesn't know his ARSE from the Sunil on Sunday's ELBOW!
ELBOW - Electoral Leader-board of the Week
As the "Sunil on Sunday" has published recently as often as a YES poll lead we my safely assume your ELBOW is bust - much like Labour party economic policy.
Patience! The Sunil's editorial team are merely perfecting it!
I'm not too sure PB can wait until SeanT becomes a virgin again .... Yes that long !!
Commission’s decision in the case of "Millie" v The Daily Telegraph
The complainant considered that the newspaper had breached Clause 1 (Accuracy) of the Editors’ Code of Practice, in a comment piece about the popularity of the Conservative Party. The article referenced a poll of key seats, which the Conservative Party had rerun, obtaining a different result. The complainant said the Conservative Party’s result must be inaccurate and that as the Conservative’s version of the poll was now partially in the public domain, the poll should be fully disclosed in accordance with the rules of the British Polling Council. Alternatively, the complainant suggested that the poll did not exist, and if this was the case, its inclusion in the article was misleading.
Clause 1 (Accuracy) states “the press must take care not to publish inaccurate, misleading or distorted information” and that “a significant inaccuracy, misleading statement or distortion once recognised must be corrected, promptly and with due prominence”.
The Commission acknowledged the complainant’s concerns for the importance of good practice in polling techniques and over the results that the Conservative Party had achieved. However, the Commission had regard for the fact that the newspaper had set out the context of the poll and clearly attributed the results to the rerun undertaken by the Conservative Party. As such, readers were aware that the results were not independent, with the poll known to be undertaken by a party with an interest in achieving a favourable result. Readers were therefore able to make their own assessment about how much reliance to place on an internal, undisclosed poll and the Commission did not find the poll’s inclusion, or its partially public status, to be misleading or inaccurate in breach of Clause 1.
Further, whilst the Commission noted the complainant’s suggestion that the internal poll might not exist. This appeared to be speculation and in the absence of any specific information in this regard, no breach was noted.
There was no breach of the Code of the Editors’ Code of Practice.
Reference no. xxxxxx
Did the said ghost poll ever get made public? Going on that letter, any loon can quote a poll that doesn't exist and unless someone can prove it doesn't, well that is that, there is no breach.
Having dealt with numbers all my life I have a taste for good practice and accuracy. Clearly something not shared by journalists.
Commission’s decision in the case of "Millie" v The Daily Telegraph
The complainant considered that the newspaper had breached Clause 1 (Accuracy) of the Editors’ Code of Practice, in a comment piece about the popularity of the Conservative Party. The article referenced a poll of key seats, which the Conservative Party had rerun, obtaining a different result. The complainant said the Conservative Party’s result must be inaccurate and that as the Conservative’s version of the poll was now partially in the public domain, the poll should be fully disclosed in accordance with the rules of the British Polling Council. Alternatively, the complainant suggested that the poll did not exist, and if this was the case, its inclusion in the article was misleading.
Clause 1 (Accuracy) states “the press must take care not to publish inaccurate, misleading or distorted information” and that “a significant inaccuracy, misleading statement or distortion once recognised must be corrected, promptly and with due prominence”.
The Commission acknowledged the complainant’s concerns for the importance of good practice in polling techniques and over the results that the Conservative Party had achieved. However, the Commission had regard for the fact that the newspaper had set out the context of the poll and clearly attributed the results to the rerun undertaken by the Conservative Party. As such, readers were aware that the results were not independent, with the poll known to be undertaken by a party with an interest in achieving a favourable result. Readers were therefore able to make their own assessment about how much reliance to place on an internal, undisclosed poll and the Commission did not find the poll’s inclusion, or its partially public status, to be misleading or inaccurate in breach of Clause 1.
Further, whilst the Commission noted the complainant’s suggestion that the internal poll might not exist. This appeared to be speculation and in the absence of any specific information in this regard, no breach was noted.
There was no breach of the Code of the Editors’ Code of Practice.
Reference no. xxxxxx
Did the said ghost poll ever get made public? Going on that letter, any loon can quote a poll that doesn't exist and unless someone can prove it doesn't, well that is that, there is no breach.
Having dealt with numbers all my life I have a taste for good practice and accuracy. Clearly something not shared by journalists.
Rather than making Cameron and the Tory Party look in a healthier position, which was the entire aim of the article and the ghost poll, all it did was increase the number of people who thought that Hodges was at best foolish or at worse a bit tapped.
@ Pulpstar "After this General Election some pollsters are going to have to go back and revise methodologies. UKIP can't be simultaenously behind and ahead of the Lib Dems on May 7th 2015. Barring methodology (Or a genuine UKIP collapse/Lib Dem rise) changes this WILL be shown in the night of election polls though."
It would be interesting to get a credible explanation of the methodology used by ICM that somehow manages to understate UKIP by a ridiculous amount compared to other pollsters between elections in defiance of the real results of real council elections every week, and then mysteriously always come into line with the other pollsters, conveniently just before a national election.
I fancy it is a nailed on certainty that ICM will come into line as the election approaches, the interesting bet will be the date it happens and the reasoning, which begs the question why so much credibility it placed and any ICM mid term poll. It would be interesting to see the results of ICM polling on issues where there is an actual result to compare their performance against, and where there are no other companies polling, therefore no trend to follow.
I find it incredible that in another week when UKIP continued accruing anywhere from 20% to 40+% in local elections, ICM comes up with 10%, yet hardly anybody bats an eyelid at the inconsistency.
Has anybody actually challenged them about the reasons for their mysterious pre-election uprating at every election, or are we just to accept the term 'Gold Standard' in the same sense as we are expected to consider Boris as PM material.
Well of course the big difference is that ICM is asking "How would you vote in a general election?"
UKIP may be getting 20-30% of the vote in local council by elections and contests that don't matter, but a general election is an entirely different proposal.
Anybody that thinks UKIP will get anything like the share of the vote in a general election context compared to local council by elections and the European election is in for a huge shock.
''Edit: I can't believe White Dee is heading to the Conservative conference. Labour would be getting all sorts of pelters if she was lined up to go there.''
They are losing their minds.
I live in a very very safe tory seat, but am tempted to vote in a way that suggests to my MP that nowhere is safe if they keep coming up with this lefty clap trap
Back in 2005 I voted Lib Dem, the "It's not racist to impose limits on immigration" posters put me right off. It wasn't even the message, more the creepy child like hand writing felt like something out of a bad horror movie.
''Edit: I can't believe White Dee is heading to the Conservative conference. Labour would be getting all sorts of pelters if she was lined up to go there.''
They are losing their minds.
I live in a very very safe tory seat, but am tempted to vote in a way that suggests to my MP that nowhere is safe if they keep coming up with this lefty clap trap
Back in 2005 I voted Lib Dem, the "It's not racist to impose limits on immigration" posters put me right off. It wasn't even the message, more the creepy child like hand writing felt like something out of a bad horror movie.
Its a Policy Exchange Fringe event, nothing to do with the main Tory party.
One thing Ed could usefully do post-referendum is bring Darling back to the frontline. He sorely needs figures with his kind of standing, which will, of course, be considerably enhanced by his having saved the union.
Darling has experience of running the likes of DWP and Business. In that sense he has a lot to offer. He is a figure from the last government though when Labour really need a new image. Should also be remembered that in his initial review into the financial sector in the immediate aftermath of the crisis there was no call for major reform.
Darling has already been Chancellor, and unless he thinks he can replace Miliband, he might prefer to be next Labour First Minister of Scotland, where he can actually get more done, especially after devo max. But he will have a pretty wide choice.
I can imagine Ed asking himto head up some kind of commission on devolution/future of the UK blah de blah. I suspect he'll be one of those elder statesmen often sought for their wise counsel. I doubt he'd have an official role though.
And would he fancy being FM?
Why not? Don't people enter politics for power? Boris wants to be Mayor of London or Prime Minister, not Minister of Paperclips. The First Minister can change things, especially after devo max: can the royal commission?
Comments
Simpering lefties who fail to accept the reality of the disaster that was left in 2010 and for more than four years have moaned and whined as the necessary medicine was administered.
My ARSE tells it like it is and has done so over elections since 2005 when you weren't complaining about Labour returning to power or when it correctly forecast to the level of a gnats marital tackle the Obama wins in 08 and 12.
But now it forecasts that Ed is a dud it must of course be a "Tory supporter"
Take off your partisan blinkers Roger and accept the reality of Labour's chocking defeat in May 2015.
With all best wishes,
JackW.
The ECHR has nothing to do with the EU. Even if we left the EU it will not go away and it would be silly to think that any subsequent deal with it would not only involve Schengen (where we currently have an opt out) but also the ECHR.
But seriously, if that is what is necessary to secure the Union, then so be it.... :')
I am increasingly of the view that by 2030-40 they will be a political force. Much changed from now but a political force.
Panda is probably pregnant at Edinburgh zoo: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-28755460
The bad news - I predict a recurrence of the very tedious panda versus Conservative MP numbers joke [amusing originally but any mirth has long since been eroded by ceaseless repetition].
Every time Labour took another rebounding lead, your consolation was the Gold Standard. Now, at least, for one month you have well and truly been shafted.
Everyone else except you - who are just too boring to be triumphant.
Labour is 3.5% ahead - that is the reality right now, all the polls are noise around this midpoint.
'British judges should be more willing to ignore rulings from the European Court of Human Rights, the country’s most senior judge has said.
Lord Neuberger of Abbotsbury, president of the Supreme Court, admitted that judges in this country had sometimes been too ready to follow decisions from the Strasbourg-based court. '
' “UK judges have, I suspect, sometimes been too ready to assume that a decision, even a single decision of a section of that court, represents the law according to Strasbourg, and accordingly to follow it,” Lord Neuberger said in a speech at the Supreme Court of Victoria in Melbourne. “[The Strasbourg court] is a civilian court under enormous pressure . . . and whose judgments are often initially prepared by staffers, and who have produced a number of inconsistent decisions.”
He added: “I think that we are beginning to see that the traditional common law approach may not be appropriate, at least to the extent that we should be more ready not to follow Strasbourg chamber decisions.” '
Based on this UK judges need to start doing a proper job and its reform not exit we need.
I don't know if RN's about, but this backs up my argument that Osborne's decisions to let HRMC run riot with ordinary people are a complete catastrophe for the conservatives.
They deserve everything they are getting.
"‘White Dee’ to address event at Conservative Conference
“Last year saw Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith debate with former editor of ConservativeHome Tim Montgomerie. But this year, the Policy Exchange has decided to pair a representative with 47-year-old Ms Kelly in a debate chaired by Newsnight presenter Allegra Stratton. Ms Kelly insists she has been waiting for an opportunity to lend her own voice to the serious arena of policy-making. She hopes to take David Cameron out for a drink afterwards.” – Daily Telegraph
I've added to my positions and laid Conservative Majority @ 3.85 (£20/-£57) and backed Labour Majority @ 3.3 (-£10/+£23)...
DYOR.
I think the prices represent good value.
Gaza was just as much in the news last Friday, when Populus put the Conservatives ahead.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/expat-money/11027075/Expats-face-400-million-tax-raid.html
"Expats who rent out their homes in Britain will be stripped of the right to use the personal allowance, under a tax raid prepared by George Osborne.
"
Retirees drawing a Government pension are also likely to be hit by the proposals, which could cut a couple’s income by up to £4,000 a year"
Not quite as deranged as the pay inheritance tax before you die idiocy, though.
These things can matter though, especially going into conference season where internal party mood is so important. If yougov stays on 4% and there's one or two more good polls before the conferences, Ed will have a much better chance at setting party jitters to rest
Polls show people think labour will grab less of your money than the tories.
No wonder the blues are getting rogered in the polls.
Before I drown in the metaphorical crocodile tears shed for lawyers in such cases people should remember that a legal right which you cannot enforce is no right at all.That may be ok for the muppets in the ECtHR but it is something we have long recognised in this country as being contrary to the rule of law.
If anyone suggests cutting tax we get cries of "the 1%", "tax cuts for millionaires", etc and the Tories drop in the polls.
It might be better off for the country in the longer term to cut taxes and encourage prosperity, but trying to do it politically seems impossible. We may end up as another France (or worse) as envy drives the country into the ground.
http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/skegness-bracing-neil-hamilton/4272
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 28m
Balance of opinion within the Labour party is shifting towards military intervention in Iraq. I expect Ed Miliband to call for it soon.
Rogerissimo !!!
Great to see you back, you've been missed
The Ludlow Massive says a big Yo.
If you want to talk about tax, fine. I suggest you look at this.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2722416/Outrage-charge-death-taxes-dead-Critics-attack-say-HRMC-focus-cutting-burden-ordinary-people.html
In his rush to play to labour's 'fairness' agenda, Osborne is destroying what is left of the tories' core support.
31% might be a high point!!
Still cited as the Gold Standard even after that, because as you say, they caught up nearer the time
Ukip went from 16 to 9 last month, labour went from -1 to +7 this... Any other pollster and PB peeps would be ripping it out of them
Here's a novel idea. Slash spending. We'll only ever get so much money from the tax take.
Osborne is in thrall to the statists at the treasury, promising him fool's gold through the power of increasingly unfettered government.
Its political weapons grade plutonium, especially for tories. The fact he doesn't realise it tells you all you need to know about the man's affiliations.
ICM do have a decent track record. But they have the occasional statistical duck like the 35 - 20 March ICM Euro poll.
Indeed, Mr Morris.
The one thing polls like this (and indeed the events of last week) show is the potential of debates or media events as game-changers. Now, NIck Clegg will be the first to tell you winning one debate doesn't win you an election but the debates do move or dislodge blocs of opinion which had previously seemed to be set.
I suspect this ICM poll (if repeated) will mean there will be some form of televised debate during next year's GE campaign as some will see the potential for transforming a poor position into a better one (though the risk of making it an even worse one is there as well as again Nick Clegg will tell you).
#RIPRobinWilliams When I lived in Boulder in 2011, was a few blocks away from Mork and Mindy house. "Nanu, Nanu", Robin, you will be missed
Fair point re cook comparison
Why not vote neither? if the tories get beat we might get a real tory leader out of it, instead of these statists.
I'd like to see May as next Conservative leader.
Edit: I can't believe White Dee is heading to the Conservative conference. Labour would be getting all sorts of pelters if she was lined up to go there.
And would he fancy being FM?
To use another cricketing analogy, you're using the form in t20 cricket, to judge whether someone should be in the test team or not.
Since 1997 onwards, they've been most accurate in 3 out of the 4 general elections, and got the AV referendum spot on.
That's the sort of track record that deserves praise.
Just like YouGov's track record in the London Mayoral and Euro elections deserves praise.
My own hunch is this, ICM become the gold standard in elections with the higher the turnout.
Something we should bear in mind with the Indyref with the high turnout level anticipated.
ELBOW - Electoral Leader-board of the Week
Some 28% of Britons believe Mr Johnson - who recently announced his intention to return to parliament - would make a better Prime Minister than David Cameron while 44% think he would be better-suited to the role than Ed Miliband.
More Britons think the Mayor of London is weirder than any of the four main party leaders, with a third saying Mr Johnson is not a serious politician.
But 35% said they would like to see Boris Johnson representing the UK on the global stage.
He was also found to be the second most trusted politician on the economy behind David Cameron, according to the poll of 2,031 British adults.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-08-12/two-in-five-brits-want-politicians-like-boris-johnson/
They are losing their minds.
I live in a very very safe tory seat, but am tempted to vote in a way that suggests to my MP that nowhere is safe if they keep coming up with this lefty clap trap
Mind you, given that in English Law a precedent is only a precedent until the Supreme Court decides it isn't any more, there has long been a body opinion that the law is a lottery anyway. Many years ago A.P. Herbert wrote a piece that suggested that as nobody ever knew what the House of Lords (as the Supreme Court then was) would decide in any particular case, its judgements had the same effect as an Act of God and should be treated in law as such.
"Millie" v The Daily Telegraph
The complainant considered that the newspaper had breached Clause 1 (Accuracy) of the Editors’ Code of Practice, in a comment piece about the popularity of the Conservative Party. The article referenced a poll of key seats, which the Conservative Party had rerun, obtaining a different result. The complainant said the Conservative Party’s result must be inaccurate and that as the Conservative’s version of the poll was now partially in the public domain, the poll should be fully disclosed in accordance with the rules of the British Polling Council. Alternatively, the complainant suggested that the poll did not exist, and if this was the case, its inclusion in the article was misleading.
Clause 1 (Accuracy) states “the press must take care not to publish inaccurate, misleading or distorted information” and that “a significant inaccuracy, misleading statement or distortion once recognised must be corrected, promptly and with due prominence”.
The Commission acknowledged the complainant’s concerns for the importance of good practice in polling techniques and over the results that the Conservative Party had achieved. However, the Commission had regard for the fact that the newspaper had set out the context of the poll and clearly attributed the results to the rerun undertaken by the Conservative Party. As such, readers were aware that the results were not independent, with the poll known to be undertaken by a party with an interest in achieving a favourable result. Readers were therefore able to make their own assessment about how much reliance to place on an internal, undisclosed poll and the Commission did not find the poll’s inclusion, or its partially public status, to be misleading or inaccurate in breach of Clause 1.
Further, whilst the Commission noted the complainant’s suggestion that the internal poll might not exist. This appeared to be speculation and in the absence of any specific information in this regard, no breach was noted.
There was no breach of the Code of the Editors’ Code of Practice.
Reference no. xxxxxx
Edit: I can't believe White Dee is heading to the Conservative conference. Labour would be getting all sorts of pelters if she was lined up to go there.
IDS will lay his hands on her and cure her of being a scrounger.Failing that he'll just sanction her benefits and refer her to the Foodbank.I hope she doesn't remind him how he claimed on expenses for underpants and £100 for Wet Wipes.
UKIP may be getting 20-30% of the vote in local council by elections and contests that don't matter, but a general election is an entirely different proposal.
Anybody that thinks UKIP will get anything like the share of the vote in a general election context compared to local council by elections and the European election is in for a huge shock.
Its a Policy Exchange Fringe event, nothing to do with the main Tory party.
UK Statistics Authority says statistics used by Chuka Umunna, Labour's shadow business secretary, used 'factually incorrect' statistics
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11027574/Labour-rebuked-over-benefit-increase-claims.html