ICM in March had labour on 35 for euros and ukip at 20
Still cited as the Gold Standard even after that, because as you say, they caught up nearer the time
Ukip went from 16 to 9 last month, labour went from -1 to +7 this... Any other pollster and PB peeps would be ripping it out of them
I guess like Alistair Cook with his batting they get more leeway rather than a relative newcomer like Lord Ashcroft's polls.
ICM do have a decent track record. But they have the occasional statistical duck like the 35 - 20 March ICM Euro poll.
To be fair, I only really got into political betting this term, so maybe it's just that I haven't seen the results myself... Just seems strange that one pollster gets so much respect when they seem, to me, to have as many outrageous outliers as any other
Fair point re cook comparison
I pointed out to you, that in May/June 2009, ICM were proved wrong on the Euros, but a year later, they earned their gold standard stripes at the general election.
To use another cricketing analogy, you're using the form in t20 cricket, to judge whether someone should be in the test team or not.
Since 1997 onwards, they've been most accurate in 3 out of the 4 general elections, and got the AV referendum spot on.
That's the sort of track record that deserves praise.
Just like YouGov's track record in the London Mayoral and Euro elections deserves praise.
My own hunch is this, ICM become the gold standard in elections with the higher the turnout.
Something we should bear in mind with the Indyref with the high turnout level anticipated.
To be fair, I think that ICM, MORI, Yougov, and Populus are all pretty reliable. Which of them actually finishes closest is probably down to luck mostly.
''Edit: I can't believe White Dee is heading to the Conservative conference. Labour would be getting all sorts of pelters if she was lined up to go there.''
They are losing their minds.
I live in a very very safe tory seat, but am tempted to vote in a way that suggests to my MP that nowhere is safe if they keep coming up with this lefty clap trap
Back in 2005 I voted Lib Dem, the "It's not racist to impose limits on immigration" posters put me right off. It wasn't even the message, more the creepy child like hand writing felt like something out of a bad horror movie.
Yes. The "are you thinking what we're thinking?" campaign must be one of the most ill-conceived of all time. Amazingly, Linton Crosby has been invited back.
That bloke Simmonds is continuing to attract unfavourable publicity for the Conservative party. Resigning because he wants to spend more time with his family, fair enough. If he had shut up at that point, few would have batted an eyelid. But he didn't, did he?
"I can't afford to live in London on more than £120k" a year makes him look a right prick. "The taxpayers should give me more than the £27k a year that they do so I can rent a flat I think is suitable", makes him sound like a complete C word. Even the Telegraph is piling in this morning, pointing out the sort of properties that can be rented for that sort of money.
I don't know how good he was as a minister or as an MP, but with his attitude to the public purse, his obvious sense of entitlement and his plain lack of empathy for how most people live, he is no loss to public service.
The Conservative party have got enough troubles about being out of touch without people like Simmonds popping up and showing that the stereotypes are, at least sometimes, true.
''Edit: I can't believe White Dee is heading to the Conservative conference. Labour would be getting all sorts of pelters if she was lined up to go there.''
They are losing their minds.
I live in a very very safe tory seat, but am tempted to vote in a way that suggests to my MP that nowhere is safe if they keep coming up with this lefty clap trap
She's been invited to the "think tank" Policy Exchange's fringe meeting which will almost certainly be outside the conference centre per se. Nothing to do with the Conservative organisers. Just a publicity seeking stunt by a so-called right wing think tank. They do claim she will "debate" a minister. Seems like White Dee has got over her "depression" which was the basis of her claim to benefits. Of course her story gives millions of us taxpayers depression or worse.
@ Pulpstar "After this General Election some pollsters are going to have to go back and revise methodologies. UKIP can't be simultaenously behind and ahead of the Lib Dems on May 7th 2015. Barring methodology (Or a genuine UKIP collapse/Lib Dem rise) changes this WILL be shown in the night of election polls though."
It would be interesting to get a credible explanation of the methodology used by ICM that somehow manages to understate UKIP by a ridiculous amount compared to other pollsters between elections in defiance of the real results of real council elections every week, and then mysteriously always come into line with the other pollsters, conveniently just before a national election.
I fancy it is a nailed on certainty that ICM will come into line as the election approaches, the interesting bet will be the date it happens and the reasoning, which begs the question why so much credibility it placed and any ICM mid term poll. It would be interesting to see the results of ICM polling on issues where there is an actual result to compare their performance against, and where there are no other companies polling, therefore no trend to follow.
I find it incredible that in another week when UKIP continued accruing anywhere from 20% to 40+% in local elections, ICM comes up with 10%, yet hardly anybody bats an eyelid at the inconsistency.
Has anybody actually challenged them about the reasons for their mysterious pre-election uprating at every election, or are we just to accept the term 'Gold Standard' in the same sense as we are expected to consider Boris as PM material.
Well of course the big difference is that ICM is asking "How would you vote in a general election?"
UKIP may be getting 20-30% of the vote in local council by elections and contests that don't matter, but a general election is an entirely different proposal.
Anybody that thinks UKIP will get anything like the share of the vote in a general election context compared to local council by elections and the European election is in for a huge shock.
UKIP are not polling anything like 20-30% of the vote in council by elections . The actual vote shares for all council by elections fought in July/August are
Con 33% Lab 21% UKIP 16% LDem 13% Green 5% Others 12%
There has been a lack of by elections in Labour areas hence the relative figures for Conservative and Labour . The total number of votes is just over 40,000 .
Bad Vlad showing how its done. Assuming he's under a lot of pressure to intervene militarily in Donbass but doesn't want to do it yet so chooses to do a humanitarian thing instead to take the pressure off. 5-6 trucks is no good as it doesn't look substantial enough but 300 - that looks substantial. Same thing with the people being chased up a mountain by Hague's Hearteaters - one Hercules doesn't look substantial enough. I'd say it was at least a three Hercules situation if not more - assuming UK still has three Hercules that could fly at once. (I don't mean now I mean the immediate response a day or so ago.)
That bloke Simmonds is continuing to attract unfavourable publicity for the Conservative party. Resigning because he wants to spend more time with his family, fair enough. If he had shut up at that point, few would have batted an eyelid. But he didn't, did he?
"I can't afford to live in London on more than £120k" a year makes him look a right prick. "The taxpayers should give me more than the £27k a year that they do so I can rent a flat I think is suitable", makes him sound like a complete C word. Even the Telegraph is piling in this morning, pointing out the sort of properties that can be rented for that sort of money.
I don't know how good he was as a minister or as an MP, but with his attitude to the public purse, his obvious sense of entitlement and his plain lack of empathy for how most people live, he is no loss to public service.
The Conservative party have got enough troubles about being out of touch without people like Simmonds popping up and showing that the stereotypes are, at least sometimes, true.
I'm not surprised. His argument seemed to be I must be allowed to live in Pimlico, and not be expected to commute as millions of other Londoners do. Always going to go down like a bucket of sick.
That bloke Simmonds is continuing to attract unfavourable publicity for the Conservative party. Resigning because he wants to spend more time with his family, fair enough. If he had shut up at that point, few would have batted an eyelid. But he didn't, did he?
"I can't afford to live in London on more than £120k" a year makes him look a right prick. "The taxpayers should give me more than the £27k a year that they do so I can rent a flat I think is suitable", makes him sound like a complete C word. Even the Telegraph is piling in this morning, pointing out the sort of properties that can be rented for that sort of money.
I don't know how good he was as a minister or as an MP, but with his attitude to the public purse, his obvious sense of entitlement and his plain lack of empathy for how most people live, he is no loss to public service.
The Conservative party have got enough troubles about being out of touch without people like Simmonds popping up and showing that the stereotypes are, at least sometimes, true.
I'm not surprised. His argument seemed to be I must be allowed to live in Pimlico, and not be expected to commute as millions of other Londoners do. Always going to go down like a bucket of sick.
Not to mention the countless more non-Londoners who also have to commute into the capital.
One thing Ed could usefully do post-referendum is bring Darling back to the frontline. He sorely needs figures with his kind of standing, which will, of course, be considerably enhanced by his having saved the union.
Darling has experience of running the likes of DWP and Business. In that sense he has a lot to offer. He is a figure from the last government though when Labour really need a new image. Should also be remembered that in his initial review into the financial sector in the immediate aftermath of the crisis there was no call for major reform.
Darling has already been Chancellor, and unless he thinks he can replace Miliband, he might prefer to be next Labour First Minister of Scotland, where he can actually get more done, especially after devo max. But he will have a pretty wide choice.
I can imagine Ed asking himto head up some kind of commission on devolution/future of the UK blah de blah. I suspect he'll be one of those elder statesmen often sought for their wise counsel. I doubt he'd have an official role though.
And would he fancy being FM?
Why not? Don't people enter politics for power? Boris wants to be Mayor of London or Prime Minister, not Minister of Paperclips. The First Minister can change things, especially after devo max: can the royal commission?
It might even benefit the country if, in future, the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, and our great cities, can become viable routes to the top in politics, rather than three years as a SpAd and five as a never-knowingly off-message backbencher.
@Pulpstar Not that much more, there are more and more English vineyards every year.(quite a boom in fact)
And very, very good stuff some of them turn out. Ridgeview sparkling whites from Ditchling are splendid value for money, and served at state occasions - Obama has drunk them with HM. Bolney is another fine vineyard. Both family firms run by very nice people. There are others of course (e.g. Nyetimber), but I recommend those two because I know them well.
@ Pulpstar "After this General Election some pollsters are going to have to go back and revise methodologies. UKIP can't be simultaenously behind and ahead of the Lib Dems on May 7th 2015. Barring methodology (Or a genuine UKIP collapse/Lib Dem rise) changes this WILL be shown in the night of election polls though."
It would be interesting to get a credible explanation of the methodology used by ICM that somehow manages to understate UKIP by a ridiculous amount compared to other pollsters between elections in defiance of the real results of real council elections every week, and then mysteriously always come into line with the other pollsters, conveniently just before a national election.
I fancy it is a nailed on certainty that ICM will come into line as the election approaches, the interesting bet will be the date it happens and the reasoning, which begs the question why so much credibility it placed and any ICM mid term poll. It would be interesting to see the results of ICM polling on issues where there is an actual result to compare their performance against, and where there are no other companies polling, therefore no trend to follow.
I find it incredible that in another week when UKIP continued accruing anywhere from 20% to 40+% in local elections, ICM comes up with 10%, yet hardly anybody bats an eyelid at the inconsistency.
Has anybody actually challenged them about the reasons for their mysterious pre-election uprating at every election, or are we just to accept the term 'Gold Standard' in the same sense as we are expected to consider Boris as PM material.
Well of course the big difference is that ICM is asking "How would you vote in a general election?"
UKIP may be getting 20-30% of the vote in local council by elections and contests that don't matter, but a general election is an entirely different proposal.
Anybody that thinks UKIP will get anything like the share of the vote in a general election context compared to local council by elections and the European election is in for a huge shock.
UKIP are not polling anything like 20-30% of the vote in council by elections . The actual vote shares for all council by elections fought in July/August are
Con 33% Lab 21% UKIP 16% LDem 13% Green 5% Others 12%
There has been a lack of by elections in Labour areas hence the relative figures for Conservative and Labour . The total number of votes is just over 40,000 .
I thought the OP's claim was OTT, but gave him the benefit of the doubt.
Thanks for clarifying.
So 16% for UKIP in current council by elections, down to 10% in a general election (as ICM is predicting) doesn't look too unbelievable does it?
HurstLlama I have heard that one of the "champagne" styled wines beat the real thing in a taste test
Yes, I think that was one of the Nyetimber wines. From memory AlanBrooke, gent of this parish, rather likes them. For my money I think Ridgeview are better, but each to their own.
I will say this get a bottle or two of the French stuff priced at say £25 a bottle and get a Ridgeview of equivalent style for the same money. On a blind taste I bet most of your friends will prefer the Ridgeview. In fact I'd go further, the Ridgeview will knock more expensive Frog stuff into a cocked hat. It is very nice wine and super value for money, and the Roberts family are such super people.
What a fine welcome! As I wrote my first post this morning I wondered whether the tragedy of Gaza might have made the good folk of Ludlow angry or whether it would take something monumental like a shortage of spare parts at the Nissan Touareg factory to really get them going?
That bloke Simmonds is continuing to attract unfavourable publicity for the Conservative party. Resigning because he wants to spend more time with his family, fair enough. If he had shut up at that point, few would have batted an eyelid. But he didn't, did he?
"I can't afford to live in London on more than £120k" a year makes him look a right prick. "The taxpayers should give me more than the £27k a year that they do so I can rent a flat I think is suitable", makes him sound like a complete C word. Even the Telegraph is piling in this morning, pointing out the sort of properties that can be rented for that sort of money.
I don't know how good he was as a minister or as an MP, but with his attitude to the public purse, his obvious sense of entitlement and his plain lack of empathy for how most people live, he is no loss to public service.
The Conservative party have got enough troubles about being out of touch without people like Simmonds popping up and showing that the stereotypes are, at least sometimes, true.
I'm not surprised. His argument seemed to be I must be allowed to live in Pimlico, and not be expected to commute as millions of other Londoners do. Always going to go down like a bucket of sick.
When I used to commute from Beaconsfield to the City, I left the house at 6am and frequently did not get back til 8.pm and later if there was an event in the City.
Family life - only at weekends if I was lucky and not getting on a plane at Heathrow on a Sunday.
It is all part of the territory if you enjoy what you do, as well as the accompanying benefits.
What a fine welcome! As I wrote my first post this morning I wondered whether the tragedy of Gaza might have made the good folk of Ludlow angry or whether it would take something monumental like a shortage of spare parts at the Nissan Touareg factory to really get them going?
You can imagine our disappointment when we found out Gaza wasn't a footballer.
HurstLlama I have heard that one of the "champagne" styled wines beat the real thing in a taste test
Yes, I think that was one of the Nyetimber wines. From memory AlanBrooke, gent of this parish, rather likes them. For my money I think Ridgeview are better, but each to their own.
I will say this get a bottle or two of the French stuff priced at say £25 a bottle and get a Ridgeview of equivalent style for the same money. On a blind taste I bet most of your friends will prefer the Ridgeview. In fact I'd go further, the Ridgeview will knock more expensive Frog stuff into a cocked hat. It is very nice wine and super value for money, and the Roberts family are such super people.
@HurstLlama £25 is a bottle of single malt. My wine exploration is more toward the vin de parrafin end
Fair enough, but can you share a bottle of single malt with the Missus? You might be lucky, but mine won't touch the stuff (perhaps I am the lucky one), so an occasional sacrifice isn't really that much of a sacrifice.
On the Vin de Parrafin stakes, we have a pukka vinters in the village, terribly nice, terribly good wines, and terribly expensive. We also have a Hartleys chain off-licence. Hartley's do have some super deals. OK, we are not talking about premier cru stuff, or even sipping wine. But for stuff suitable for a family meal or sloshing down with friends over the bridge table they do deals that far outshine the big supermarkets. I picked up a case of New Zealand white stuff that Tescos had in on special offer, mind you, for £5.99 a bottle for the equivalent of of £3.50 a bottle. I am convinced that the Supermarkets, with the possible exception of Waitrose (whose Vinho Verde I am very fond), are the wrong places to buy wine.
Would you argue on the idea that English sparking is generally better value than the Frog stuff, though?
P.S. On the Nyetimber V Ridgeview taste-off, are you sure you were comparing similar styles? Ridgeview do a range of very similarly priced but quite different styles.
@HurstLlama It can surprise you some of the wines you can find, sometimes shock you, but once you learn a few simple rules, you win far more than you lose.
Comments
"I can't afford to live in London on more than £120k" a year makes him look a right prick. "The taxpayers should give me more than the £27k a year that they do so I can rent a flat I think is suitable", makes him sound like a complete C word. Even the Telegraph is piling in this morning, pointing out the sort of properties that can be rented for that sort of money.
I don't know how good he was as a minister or as an MP, but with his attitude to the public purse, his obvious sense of entitlement and his plain lack of empathy for how most people live, he is no loss to public service.
The Conservative party have got enough troubles about being out of touch without people like Simmonds popping up and showing that the stereotypes are, at least sometimes, true.
The actual vote shares for all council by elections fought in July/August are
Con 33%
Lab 21%
UKIP 16%
LDem 13%
Green 5%
Others 12%
There has been a lack of by elections in Labour areas hence the relative figures for Conservative and Labour . The total number of votes is just over 40,000 .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWsg-T7Ao5U
"We may end up as another France (or worse) as envy drives the country into the ground."
Quelle catastrophe!
http://www.activeazur.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/villefranche-sur-mer-harbour.jpg
Not that much more, there are more and more English vineyards every year.(quite a boom in fact)
Thanks for clarifying.
So 16% for UKIP in current council by elections, down to 10% in a general election (as ICM is predicting) doesn't look too unbelievable does it?
I have heard that one of the "champagne" styled wines beat the real thing in a taste test
If it means income taxes come down further then I'm all for taxing ex-pats on their second homes.
I will say this get a bottle or two of the French stuff priced at say £25 a bottle and get a Ridgeview of equivalent style for the same money. On a blind taste I bet most of your friends will prefer the Ridgeview. In fact I'd go further, the Ridgeview will knock more expensive Frog stuff into a cocked hat. It is very nice wine and super value for money, and the Roberts family are such super people.
http://www.ridgeview.co.uk/
"Rogerissimo !!!
Great to see you back, you've been missed
The Ludlow Massive says a big Yo."
What a fine welcome! As I wrote my first post this morning I wondered whether the tragedy of Gaza might have made the good folk of Ludlow angry or whether it would take something monumental like a shortage of spare parts at the Nissan Touareg factory to really get them going?
Family life - only at weekends if I was lucky and not getting on a plane at Heathrow on a Sunday.
It is all part of the territory if you enjoy what you do, as well as the accompanying benefits.
£25 is a bottle of single malt. My wine exploration is more toward the vin de parrafin end
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enUJB5RS6NE
country.
Nyetimber is more your biscuity\yeasty champagne style, Ridgeview was more like a cleaner prosecco style.
I prefer the taste to the bubbles.
On the Vin de Parrafin stakes, we have a pukka vinters in the village, terribly nice, terribly good wines, and terribly expensive. We also have a Hartleys chain off-licence. Hartley's do have some super deals. OK, we are not talking about premier cru stuff, or even sipping wine. But for stuff suitable for a family meal or sloshing down with friends over the bridge table they do deals that far outshine the big supermarkets. I picked up a case of New Zealand white stuff that Tescos had in on special offer, mind you, for £5.99 a bottle for the equivalent of of £3.50 a bottle. I am convinced that the Supermarkets, with the possible exception of Waitrose (whose Vinho Verde I am very fond), are the wrong places to buy wine.
"I prefer the taste to the bubbles."
Oh, you can try to be so cruel, you brute, you.
Would you argue on the idea that English sparking is generally better value than the Frog stuff, though?
P.S. On the Nyetimber V Ridgeview taste-off, are you sure you were comparing similar styles? Ridgeview do a range of very similarly priced but quite different styles.
It can surprise you some of the wines you can find, sometimes shock you, but once you learn a few simple rules, you win far more than you lose.