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Betting opportunities in the German election – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited September 2021
    RE
    Selebian said:

    We are under <£900 with someone in the house all day every day (well, until the deal ends/supplier goes under, anyway). That's in a 1925 semi with solid walls (i.e. no cavity, so no cavity insulation). We have insulated the loft to modern spec, have good windows, the boiler is just coming up to three years old and we've got solar panels (so that reduces electricty consumption and also gives us ~£400 year income to offset against the £900).

    The average I guess is due to a lot of people being on sub-optimal tariffs with old boilers and very little insulation (my in-laws fall into this category).</p>

    In my experience, the big factor is the temperature at which you keep your home.

    Insulation is a factor but if you consistently heat your home through the year, then your bill is much higher. This is the case for a lot of older people.
  • Commission spokesman says Brussels is 'analysing the impact of the AUKUS announcement' on the next round of EU-Australia trade talks, which is scheduled for next month. Comes after France's Europe Minister Clement Beaune said it would be 'unthinkable' for negotiations to go on....

    A reminder that last Thursday the EU's high representative Josep Borrell insisted 'we want to foster cooperation with countries such as Australia' and 'trade agreements with Australia will continue down their path'. Seems that French fury has shifted the dial over the weekend.

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1439898057546551299?s=20

    Wow. I think ordinarily the EU's instinct would be to wait for things to simmer down and then proceed as before. However Boris really has upped the ante - especially in the way his supporters have been clear they see AUUKUS as a tool to render Europe utterly powerless and insignificant in the modern world. This poses an existential threat to the EU itself. The EU nations might decide it's worth using a nuclear option when you've got an opponent like Boris on the loose.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,267
    edited September 2021

    Another uncomfortable truth is the myth of "the one" - it's one we tell ourselves, we all do, because we love our partners deeply but we haven't individually reviewed all 4 billion + suitable candidates to be sure, have we?

    As this is a betting site it's probably more likely to be 1:10,000 - which means there are statistically a large number of suitable partners, worldwide - and that's then filtered by cultural entropy, language, compatibility and proximity to feel like they are "the one" within your realistic field of vision for your own life.
    Ha - Tim Minchin beat you to it.

    Check out his song "If I didn't have you", which, addressing his wife, contains the line "I think you're special but you fall within a bell curve".

    Here is a chunk of the lyrics (check out the whole song though):

    "But realistically there's lots of fish in the sea,
    And if I had a different rod I would conceivably land some.
    Even though I am fiscally consistently pitiable
    And considerably less Brad Pitt than Brad Pitiful
    Am I really so poor and ugly that you
    Think only you could possibly love me?"
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,712
    edited September 2021

    Mr. Pioneers, aye, decades of political idiocy from major parties has led to this.

    I'm not banking on the imbecile of Number 10 improving it. But we'll see.

    Not much chance of that when we have loons newly appointed to the cabinet who were still denying the existence of global warming as recently as 2012! How are people who are already struggling to come to terms with reality supposed to come up with a coherent energy policy?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/annemarie-trevelyan-climate-change-denial-b1921589.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    Welsh Labour’s party conference in November has been cancelled due to high cases of covid and pressure on the NHS. expected at that time of year does that mean other large scale events could be in jeopardy come the winter months?

    https://twitter.com/Lily_Hewitson/status/1439903464549715975?s=20

    Seems weird to think that is in jeopardy, the situation doesn't seem to have changed massively over the last two months where cases have been high, there is pressure, but nowhere near the full blown crisis period.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771

    The average energy usage is £1,600 per year? Christ - I pay £600 and that was a bad year due to wfh. Shows how important insulation is (my home was built in 2018).

    I think that's a wholesale market price not an average bill.

    Average bill is roughly £1200 covering both gas and electricity.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    Nick mentioned the bad polls for Putin the other day - that problem was solved with intimidation and ballot-stuffing:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-election-2021-putins-party-wins-most-corrupt-vote-yet-wz78730xt

    Also, the CCP have allowed the election of a token opposition candidate in Hong Kong to give themselves a bit of cover:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-of-single-opposition-candidate-tik-chi-yuen-proves-hong-kong-democracy-says-beijing-7l8zltqvk

    Both disgusting, and shows what we're up against.

    I'm not sure why they bother with a charade, in HK in particular (not that Beijing doesn't have support there, but why that it is so overwhelming now). It doesn't fool anyone, they know it doesn't fool anyone and don't expect it to, so what's the point?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,171
    0.5% to 1.29% increase for PayPal fees between the UK and EEA. Sweet. This hits particularly had that vulnerable section of society who spend vast amounts of money buying European car parts on eBay.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/brexit-paypal-fees-uk-eu-b1917179.html

    Pretty sure Johnson promised they'd go down after Brexit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    Dura_Ace said:

    0.5% to 1.29% increase for PayPal fees between the UK and EEA. Sweet. This hits particularly had that vulnerable section of society who spend vast amounts of money buying European car parts on eBay.

    Truly always the part of society overlooked.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,681

    Interesting todays poll on the NI NHS and social care rise shows 48%/41% opposed

    The 41% approval is higher than I expected after all the controversy

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1439891311973306370?s=19

    Polls which only register opposition to tax rise X are of no value when at the end of it they haven't bothered to find out how those answering want to pay instead.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274
    Dura_Ace said:

    0.5% to 1.29% increase for PayPal fees between the UK and EEA. Sweet. This hits particularly had that vulnerable section of society who spend vast amounts of money buying European car parts on eBay.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/brexit-paypal-fees-uk-eu-b1917179.html

    Pretty sure Johnson promised they'd go down after Brexit.

    You believed his promises? Really?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    https://www.energylive.cloud/

    European spot prices for electricity seem pretty high to me.. Not quite up to the UK level but also most not much lower.
  • The *scale* is UK specific. I know that Spain has high costs comparatively for Spain. A "day ahead" price of €100/MWh. But in the UK it's €177...

    Like I said, there are price rises everywhere. Ours are higher than pretty much everyone else due to 30 years of policy shithousery and our reliance on a now unregulated market.

    ...
    in Denmark it's €180....
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    Dura_Ace said:

    0.5% to 1.29% increase for PayPal fees between the UK and EEA. Sweet. This hits particularly had that vulnerable section of society who spend vast amounts of money buying European car parts on eBay.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/brexit-paypal-fees-uk-eu-b1917179.html

    Pretty sure Johnson promised they'd go down after Brexit.

    ebay doesn't use paypal anymore - they've shifted to an internal system (that takes a day longer to pay out).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,800
    edited September 2021

    I had a smart meter fitted two weeks ago and the engineer checked my gas combi boiler and said that they were attending many homes where they simply had to condemn the boiler and also some gas fires

    It will come as quite a shock to some when they decide to install a smart meter that their boiler will need immediate replacement

    Fortunately mine was fine and is serviced annually

    And my 4 bed detached is cavity insulated, double glazed, heavy layers of loft insulation, and solar panels but my monthly dd has just risen to £104 from £75

    Goodness knows what it would be without the solar panels and feed in tariffs.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Wow. I think ordinarily the EU's instinct would be to wait for things to simmer down and then proceed as before. However Boris really has upped the ante - especially in the way his supporters have been clear they see AUUKUS as a tool to render Europe utterly powerless and insignificant in the modern world. This poses an existential threat to the EU itself. The EU nations might decide it's worth using a nuclear option when you've got an opponent like Boris on the loose.
    I see your obsession grows with the passing of time. Not sure the tweet justifies your hyperbole, but you can live in hope...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    US Speaker Nancy Pelosi met with Starmer and Nandy this morning
    https://twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi/status/1439911997160648707?s=20
  • Pulpstar said:

    Do we have any water systems that could be turned into a significant pumped storage battery in the UK ?
    Could we create one, or do we need to go Lithium ion for storage here ?

    There have been experiments with raising/lowering weights as a form of storage.
    Could be of use in areas with lots of disused deep mine shafts.
    My hazy scientific grasp is that a substance denser than water e.g. stone or metal would be more efficient than raising/lowering water.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    kingbongo said:

    in Denmark it's €180....
    If we are talking about MWh, a lot of our current price rise is due to a 2GW interconnect that is out of order, that shock by itself would have a significant impact on prices as it's 6% of our usual production...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    kingbongo said:

    in Denmark it's €180....
    Come one man, Rochdale needs a win today. His world view about the EU has been imploding, just give him this one victory. He needs it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    Sounds like Daisy Cooper is in favour of terms like chestfeeding...
  • Betting maybe

    Dan Jarvis will not seek re-election to Mayor to concentrate on his role as an MP
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    kinabalu said:
    Lol, it's a retelling of the whole thing from the EU/France perspective with multiple quotes from the French side and nothing from either the US, UK or Australians.

    France are being asked whether they're happy to be hamstrung by German foreign policy objectives. So far they haven't answered, it's something that will take time for them to answer. The UK out of the EU has said we won't be beholden to Germany wanting to sell BMWs to China. France will need to take that step, either by convincing Germany to come along or, as Barnier has been suggesting, working outside of EU shared sovereignty.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    Betting maybe

    Dan Jarvis will not seek re-election to Mayor to concentrate on his role as an MP

    Translation - he thinks Labour have a shot now so needs to put work in if he wants a good job later?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    As voting begins in today's Canadian general election, final polls below.

    Nanos Liberals 32.4% Conservatives 31.2% NDP 17.5%

    Forum Conservatives 33% Liberals 29.4% NDP 16.2%

    Research Conservatives 32% Liberals 32% NDP 19%

    Mainstreet Liberals 33.4% Conservatives 30.4% NDP 18.1%

    Abacus Conservatives 32% Liberals 31% NDP 19%

    EKOS Liberals 32.6% Conservatives 27.3% NDP 18%
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,290
    eek said:

    If we are talking about MWh, a lot of our current price rise is due to a 2GW interconnect that is out of order, that shock by itself would have a significant impact on prices as it's 6% of our usual production...
    Thing is, that interconnector was only really substituting for a nuclear power station we should have built. Importing power, whilst potentially a handy tool to balance things out, shouldn't have really ended up as virtual baseload all winter.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771

    Up in Staffordshire, you have Middle Schools:
    A Primary or First school at the beginning of the reception year
    A Junior school at the beginning of Year 3
    a Middle school at the beginning of Year 5
    a Secondary school at the beginning of Year 7
    an Upper school at the beginning of Year 9

    In Cambridgeshire, there are village colleges for years 7-11:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Village_college
    I had quite forgotten about all the Village Colleges round here!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838
    HYUFD said:

    No, just Drakeford is a wet blanket, hospitalisations still low due to the vaccinations
    Follow the link below, and look at the blue line in Figure 5. And then read this:
    ... in our more recent data (since mid-April 2021), infections and hospitalisations began to re-converge, potentially reflecting the increased prevalence and severity of Delta compared with Alpha [25], a changing age mix of severe cases, and possible waning of protection [19,26].
    https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/90800/2/react1_r13_final_preprint_final.pdf

    In short, the increased severity of the Delta variant has essentially cancelled out the benefit from vaccination, as far as the rate of hospitalisation per infection is concerned.

    That doesn't mean there is no longer any benefit from vaccination, because vaccination still has a big benefit in lowering the risk of being infected in the first place - and thereby the risk of being hospitalised.

    But people really need to stop parroting the old mantra about vaccination reducing the percentage of those infected who go to hospital. It doesn't.
  • tlg86 said:

    Sounds like Daisy Cooper is in favour of terms like chestfeeding...

    Why on earth are the lib dems getting involved in this
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    Nigelb said:

    Might a new government change their mind over buying nukes, though ?
    (A previous administration favoured an extended range version of the Japanese Soryu - which would have made a great deal of sense, in terms of price, delivery schedule and capability.)
    Yes, I wondered about that. My guess is that a new government will not seek to reopen the package, but I don't know if they've clearly opposed it anyway? I know Paul Keating has, not heard about other local reactions. Do others know?

    It feels like the sort of issue that the Greens could run on but which wouldn't survive coalition talks.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sorry but I have absolutely zero sympathy for centres that wish to break the law being given a "religious" exemption. The law is the law and if these centres wish to put their petty bigotry over "helping the kids" then good riddance to them. Let secular organisations that don't put bigotry over helping the kids in accordance with the law take their place.

    Besides, while I may be an atheist I do have a decent understanding of the Bible and while I can't remember Christ attacking gay couples, I can recall a concept of how we are all sinners and then when it comes to the law Matthew 12:17 surely applies?

    The law is the law and that should apply to all equally and not have carved out religious exemptions whether it be for Anglicans, Catholics or Sharia.
    Positioning it as breaking the law is unreasonable and inflammatory.

    They were in compliance with the law. The law changed. So they closed. At no point did they break the law.

    Christ cared for children. These were good men and women who wanted to help children. They had a genuine belief - which I disagree with - that children were not helped by putting them in same sex family units.

    So now very troubled and scared children don’t get the same quality of assistance (these agencies were among the best in the field).

    I hope you feel good about that. But there is a little less joy in the lives of people who are less privileged than you.
  • On energy:

    At a base level, what do we need from our energy system?

    Security of supply (being able to get the coal/gas/fuel/wind/sun we need) to generate the power we need at all times.
    Security of price (producing and distributing the power for an affordable price)
    Not kill the environment (not producing nasties such as CO2, NO etc)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I'm curious how many of those who regret there is no Catholic exemption to equalities legislation so that Catholics can't discriminate against homosexuals ... Would also call for an Islamic exemption to equalities legislation so that Muslims could discriminate against women in accordance to Shariah law?

    The law is the law and we should have equality before the law.

    That is why the solution was requiring a referral system to a local partner agency.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    HYUFD said:

    As voting begins in today's Canadian general election, final polls below.

    Nanos Liberals 32.4% Conservatives 31.2% NDP 17.5%

    Forum Conservatives 33% Liberals 29.4% NDP 16.2%

    Research Conservatives 32% Liberals 32% NDP 19%

    Mainstreet Liberals 33.4% Conservatives 30.4% NDP 18.1%

    Abacus Conservatives 32% Liberals 31% NDP 19%

    EKOS Liberals 32.6% Conservatives 27.3% NDP 18%
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

    So Trudeau win most likely, but probably not worth the hassle of an early election?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,171
    eek said:

    ebay doesn't use paypal anymore - they've shifted to an internal system (that takes a day longer to pay out).
    Yes, but lots of car related eBay stuff is done en noir with payment outside eBay.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,505
    Charles said:

    That is why the solution was requiring a referral system to a local partner agency.
    This issue a similar issue has caused quite a bit of staring at the floor - gay marriage for example. Every so often it got proposed that any venue (religious or otherwise) that discriminates should not be allowed to hold weddings at all. Then someone points out the obvious....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    If there are readily made alternatives available then why should people end up in care?

    Why don't they end up at the alternatives that were good enough for gays? Why can't they be good enough for everyone? If Catholic agencies aren't crowding out unbigoted ones then the unbigoted ones should be able to expand to meet the demand.
    There were capacity issues - an under supply of people willing to do a difficult and emotionally challenging job often on a volunteer basis. The Catholic charities (I don’t think it was actually the church) weren’t willing to fund others they disagreed with to do the work and neither was the government.

    The actual number of gay couples in this situation was tiny.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    The new Taiwanese submarine* will contain a lot of US systems - sonar, combat systems, torpedoes etc (which were approved by Trump) - and is being built with Japanese help.
    The first boat is now expected to be launched in just two years' time, unusually ahead of schedule. Assuming that's correct, it's hard to see what alternative they could get from the US, who don't even build diesel/electric boats.

    *inauspiciously labelled the 'IDS'...
    To be fair, IDS sank without trace

    That might be good for a submarine…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited September 2021
    Chris said:

    Follow the link below, and look at the blue line in Figure 5. And then read this:
    ... in our more recent data (since mid-April 2021), infections and hospitalisations began to re-converge, potentially reflecting the increased prevalence and severity of Delta compared with Alpha [25], a changing age mix of severe cases, and possible waning of protection [19,26].
    https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/90800/2/react1_r13_final_preprint_final.pdf

    In short, the increased severity of the Delta variant has essentially cancelled out the benefit from vaccination, as far as the rate of hospitalisation per infection is concerned.

    That doesn't mean there is no longer any benefit from vaccination, because vaccination still has a big benefit in lowering the risk of being infected in the first place - and thereby the risk of being hospitalised.

    But people really need to stop parroting the old mantra about vaccination reducing the percentage of those infected who go to hospital. It doesn't.
    Those figures are from April 2021, not until this month will all adults have been offered both jabs and only being double vaccinated seriously reduces hospitalisation risk, just 1 jab alone is not as effective against Delta.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,290

    There have been experiments with raising/lowering weights as a form of storage.
    Could be of use in areas with lots of disused deep mine shafts.
    My hazy scientific grasp is that a substance denser than water e.g. stone or metal would be more efficient than raising/lowering water.
    It's a great idea until you start to consider the scale required to be useful.
    Dinorwic gives you 1.8GW for about 5 hours run flat out from full.
    To do so it takes around 390 tones of water falling 100m per second. That's 3,900 tons falling 10m a second, or 39,000 tons at 1m/second.
    If we dig a hole for our 40k ton weight to go down 1km deep, it will equal Dinorwic for 17 minutes.
    That's before you start looking at the engineering problem posed by dangling 40k tons down a 1km mineshaft on a rope.

    Nice idea, but it just doesn't scale big enough sensibly.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    edited September 2021


    I had a smart meter fitted two weeks ago and the engineer checked my gas combi boiler and said that they were attending many homes where they simply had to condemn the boiler and also some gas fires

    It will come as quite a shock to some when they decide to install a smart meter that their boiler will need immediate replacement

    Fortunately mine was fine and is serviced annually

    And my 4 bed detached is cavity insulated, double glazed, heavy layers of loft insulation, and solar panels but my monthly dd has just risen to £104 from £75

    Goodness knows what it would be without the solar panels and feed in tariffs.

    My fix (started 13/9) has just shifted from the previous £74 to £91 (signed up in late Aug on a 12 month fix. 24 monthers were about £102). The deals started getting rather more expensive more rapidly from about July.

    AFAICS part of it is the change to the Price Cap regime in 2019 feeding through, which somewhat tipped the benefit balance from constant switchers to people on card meters and variable tariffs.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355
    Chris said:

    Follow the link below, and look at the blue line in Figure 5. And then read this:
    ... in our more recent data (since mid-April 2021), infections and hospitalisations began to re-converge, potentially reflecting the increased prevalence and severity of Delta compared with Alpha [25], a changing age mix of severe cases, and possible waning of protection [19,26].
    https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/90800/2/react1_r13_final_preprint_final.pdf

    In short, the increased severity of the Delta variant has essentially cancelled out the benefit from vaccination, as far as the rate of hospitalisation per infection is concerned.

    That doesn't mean there is no longer any benefit from vaccination, because vaccination still has a big benefit in lowering the risk of being infected in the first place - and thereby the risk of being hospitalised.

    But people really need to stop parroting the old mantra about vaccination reducing the percentage of those infected who go to hospital. It doesn't.
    Chris, I'm really interested in this and slightly disagree. I think we are now seeing a lot of younger, unvaccinated people in hospital that we didn't before because we used NPI to a much greater extent. I believe that vaccination does affect your chance of progressing to severe disease, while you clearly don't.

    I know you do not like the idea of positive tests being called 'cases'. Is this the heart of the difference in our opinion? Do you regard a case as only someone testing positive AND with symptoms?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,505
    theProle said:

    It's a great idea until you start to consider the scale required to be useful.
    Dinorwic gives you 1.8GW for about 5 hours run flat out from full.
    To do so it takes around 390 tones of water falling 100m per second. That's 3,900 tons falling 10m a second, or 39,000 tons at 1m/second.
    If we dig a hole for our 40k ton weight to go down 1km deep, it will equal Dinorwic for 17 minutes.
    That's before you start looking at the engineering problem posed by dangling 40k tons down a 1km mineshaft on a rope.

    Nice idea, but it just doesn't scale big enough sensibly.

    And which is why pumped storage isn't any easy answer - you still need alot of Dinorwic's to deal with intermittency from renewables such as solar and wind.

    One interesting idea I came across was using compressed air storage - beating the problem of energy loss on expansion to cooling, by using the cooling to manufacture liquid gases for free..... Making that add up would be an interesting one, though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,458

    Yes, I wondered about that. My guess is that a new government will not seek to reopen the package, but I don't know if they've clearly opposed it anyway? I know Paul Keating has, not heard about other local reactions. Do others know?

    It feels like the sort of issue that the Greens could run on but which wouldn't survive coalition talks.
    I think unlikely in the short term as the ALP has mostly made positive noises, while criticising the Liberals management of the project so far, and the loss of jobs from cancelling.

    In the longer term as costs escalate, with the new subs being rather more expensive, and even fewer parts made in Australia, then cancellation of the whole project is possible.

    Australian manufacturing capacity has run down a lot over the last decades, and there is a pork barrel element to it all.

    The advantage of SSN over conventional submarines is range and endurance. For coastal protection of Australia regular submarines are fine. Nuclear subs are only needed for out of region activity.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    theProle said:

    It's a great idea until you start to consider the scale required to be useful.
    Dinorwic gives you 1.8GW for about 5 hours run flat out from full.
    To do so it takes around 390 tones of water falling 100m per second. That's 3,900 tons falling 10m a second, or 39,000 tons at 1m/second.
    If we dig a hole for our 40k ton weight to go down 1km deep, it will equal Dinorwic for 17 minutes.
    That's before you start looking at the engineering problem posed by dangling 40k tons down a 1km mineshaft on a rope.

    Nice idea, but it just doesn't scale big enough sensibly.

    Can we use the hole to Australia that Mons. Macron is digging for himself to give a fall of 6,000 km?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    MaxPB said:

    Lol, it's a retelling of the whole thing from the EU/France perspective with multiple quotes from the French side and nothing from either the US, UK or Australians.

    France are being asked whether they're happy to be hamstrung by German foreign policy objectives. So far they haven't answered, it's something that will take time for them to answer. The UK out of the EU has said we won't be beholden to Germany wanting to sell BMWs to China. France will need to take that step, either by convincing Germany to come along or, as Barnier has been suggesting, working outside of EU shared sovereignty.
    Hardly 'lol' to get a view from their angle. It's an integral part of the 360. But, ok, tbf, when I saw the version "leaked from Downing St" explaining how Boris Johnson's role in things was akin to Captain Marvel and we were now at the very heart of a great new Anglo alliance that would rock the world to its core, I did succumb to a little chuckle. So touche, I suppose.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    edited September 2021

    Yes, I wondered about that. My guess is that a new government will not seek to reopen the package, but I don't know if they've clearly opposed it anyway? I know Paul Keating has, not heard about other local reactions. Do others know?

    It feels like the sort of issue that the Greens could run on but which wouldn't survive coalition talks.
    They have opposition support.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/submarines-a-costly-debacle-but-here-s-why-morrison-has-little-argument-from-labor-20210916-p58s8c.html
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,505
    Foxy said:

    I think unlikely in the short term as the ALP has mostly made positive noises, while criticising the Liberals management of the project so far, and the loss of jobs from cancelling.

    In the longer term as costs escalate, with the new subs being rather more expensive, and even fewer parts made in Australia, then cancellation of the whole project is possible.

    Australian manufacturing capacity has run down a lot over the last decades, and there is a pork barrel element to it all.

    The advantage of SSN over conventional submarines is range and endurance. For coastal protection of Australia regular submarines are fine. Nuclear subs are only needed for out of region activity.
    The Australian Navy has been raising issues about Chinese sub hunters harassing their existing boats while snorkelling.

    The size of Australia makes the existing Collins class range a problem. Hence the interest in nukes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,290
    .
    Charles said:

    To be fair, IDS sank without trace

    That might be good for a submarine…
    A quiet man, too, I seem to recall.
    Another desirable quality.

    And a pate loosely resembling a sonar dome.

    They might be on to something.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563
    theProle said:

    I don't think he means that the adopting couple is less fortunate, but that those being placed for adoption is less fortunate than growing up with both your biological parents in a stable relationship.

    In an ideal world there would be no adoption, for gays or anyone else, because all kids would be with both their biological parents - by pretty much any metric you like, this gives way better life outcomes than anything else.

    Back in the nasty world of reality, we tend to end up discussing the ideal situation, when the reality is almost any living arrangements result in better outcomes than council "care".

    Of course there is unfortunately (but unsurprisingly) also a bit of a "pecking order" that goes on within adoption - as I understand, placing a healthy newborn is usually pretty easy, finding someone who can cope with a traumatised 8 year old with learning difficulties is extremely difficult.

    I've friends who adopted a 4 year old girl with special needs about 20 years ago - they already had a natural daughter who was going (and has now gone) blind.
    Having gone through them growing up (quite traumatic at times), about 5 years ago, they adopted 3 siblings (aged about 2-6) with various special needs, from a horrific background. To say I respect them for what they've done doesn't say half how I feel about it.
    Good post and yes I was being a bit "Monday morning" with Casino (still nothing wrong with red cords, that said). And yes - we work down from "the ideal" to what we have which is far from ideal.

    It was just in that context of things being far from ideal that I don't think it serves a great purpose to relate the current situation to some unattainable goal.
  • MattW said:

    My fix (started 13/9) has just shifted from the previous £74 to £91 (signed up in late Aug on a 12 month fix. 24 monthers were about £102). The deals started getting rather more expensive more rapidly from about July.

    AFAICS part of it is the change to the Price Cap regime in 2019 feeding through, which somewhat tipped the benefit balance from constant switchers to people on card meters and variable tariffs.

    I should have said my fix is for 24 months from 1st September but was at £75 pm so fairly similar
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Charles said:

    Positioning it as breaking the law is unreasonable and inflammatory.

    They were in compliance with the law. The law changed. So they closed. At no point did they break the law.

    Christ cared for children. These were good men and women who wanted to help children. They had a genuine belief - which I disagree with - that children were not helped by putting them in same sex family units.

    So now very troubled and scared children don’t get the same quality of assistance (these agencies were among the best in the field).

    I hope you feel good about that. But there is a little less joy in the lives of people who are less privileged than you.
    I would have more time for this position if Catholic adoption agencies didn't regularly put children with single adults. Having two loving, committed parents has to be better than one. It ends up just feeling like the Catholics enforcing their own bigotry against gay people.

    And the supreme worry for children runs a bit hollow given how almost all of the Catholic hierarchy ignored child abuse in its own ranks for decades.
  • And which is why pumped storage isn't any easy answer - you still need alot of Dinorwic's to deal with intermittency from renewables such as solar and wind.

    One interesting idea I came across was using compressed air storage - beating the problem of energy loss on expansion to cooling, by using the cooling to manufacture liquid gases for free..... Making that add up would be an interesting one, though.
    Dinorwic is enormous and well worth a visit
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    algarkirk said:

    Yes. The real hurdle is elsewhere: other churches have no obligation to perform any particular marriage, they can pick and choose. Non RCs have no right to an RC marriage. Everyone has a basic right to a CoE marriage unless there is a statutory exemption.

    But the bigger hurdle is in the nature of the CoE. It includes liberals who don't feel bound by the limits of bible/tradition, and large numbers of (voluble and active) members who think they can't go beyond the bible on gay, or any, issues. They are deluded of course as they routinely ignore the bible/Jesus on war, wealth, remarriage, women speaking in church and all sorts of things. At heart they are not over fond of gays.

    I think you are erroneously conflating the CofE and the Anglican Community

    If ++Cantab wasn’t head of the Anglican Community I suspect we would be much closer to the Episcopalians in outlook
  • Charles said:

    Positioning it as breaking the law is unreasonable and inflammatory.

    They were in compliance with the law. The law changed. So they closed. At no point did they break the law.

    Christ cared for children. These were good men and women who wanted to help children. They had a genuine belief - which I disagree with - that children were not helped by putting them in same sex family units.

    So now very troubled and scared children don’t get the same quality of assistance (these agencies were among the best in the field).

    I hope you feel good about that. But there is a little less joy in the lives of people who are less privileged than you.
    Yes I feel very good about that. Good riddance to bigotry and hatred in this sector and in society in general.

    You claim that a "referral" should be a suitable solution instead of just not being bigoted in the first place but if a referral is good enough for some it should be good enough for all.

    If you don't think a referral for all is good enough, then why should it be for the minority whom this "charity" wished to exclude despite equal rights legislation.

    I think being hateful and bigoted to others is a terrible strain on society that causes real harm. I think having equal rights legislation and equality before the law is a very good thing entirely and let any institution that can't keep up with the law fade into history where it belongs.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Lessons will be learnt.

    Apart from the lessons of Northern Rock's "borrow short, lend long" collapse for domestic gas suppliers.

    And all other lessons.

    What I don’t get is why is the government talk about bailing out the small companies with crappy business models. They took a risk and their equity should be wiped out

    Transfer the customers and agree a subsidy between the current rate and the average spot rate over the next 6-9 months. You can’t ask a company to buy into a loss making contract without support
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited September 2021
    Charles said:

    I think you are erroneously conflating the CofE and the Anglican Community

    If ++Cantab wasn’t head of the Anglican Community I suspect we would be much closer to the Episcopalians in outlook
    Cantuar, Charles. Cambridge doesn't even have a cathedral on the books.
  • Charles said:

    There were capacity issues - an under supply of people willing to do a difficult and emotionally challenging job often on a volunteer basis. The Catholic charities (I don’t think it was actually the church) weren’t willing to fund others they disagreed with to do the work and neither was the government.

    The actual number of gay couples in this situation was tiny.
    So the people willing to do the difficult and challenging job can go to charities that aren't institutionally discriminatory instead.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,505

    Dinorwic is enormous and well worth a visit
    Yes, it is enormous. But the national Grid is something like 90GW. so you need 2TWh to run the country for 24h.

    So you'd need a couple of hundred Dinorwig facilities to run the country for a single 24h period.

    Even if you say 6 hours, you need 50.

    Big problem to solve.......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited September 2021
    Charles said:

    I think you are erroneously conflating the CofE and the Anglican Community

    If ++Cantab wasn’t head of the Anglican Community I suspect we would be much closer to the Episcopalians in outlook
    Yes but he is and he wants to keep the Anglican Communion together rather than see the more socially conservative African branch of the Anglican communion split off. That is especially so as the fastest growth for the Anglican communion is in Africa eg there are now more Anglicans in Nigeria than in England.

    So while Episcopalians may be happy to do gay marriages, especially as most of them are in the more liberal bits of the US in and around New England, New York and DC and on the West coast, the Church of England will likely allow gay blessings at most and not full gay marriage in its churches given the head of the Church of England is also head of the Anglican communion
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The energy crisis started in the late 80s when the sector was deregulated. We've mentioned the dash for gas - not only did it help burn off our North Sea reserves it also bust the market for coal.

    What did that mean? We went from digging coal from profitable pits a short distance from the power station to shutting the pits and importing coal from Venezuela and Brazil. Once you start importing its easy to keep doing it - suddenly imported coal is expensive so both imports and CCS are off the table and coal generation goes.

    But its alright as we have all these gas power stations. Except that the gas is increasingly imported. But its alright as we have nuclear. Yeah right, we can't build new ones. But its alright as we have these interconnectors and the energy market is regulated. Until an interconnector burns out and we quit the regulated market.

    Whilst there have been errors piled on errors this lot have been in government for 11 years. How will they blame someone else or what they have done - and haven't done - in that time?

    It was all Ed Milliband’s fault😀
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    MattW said:

    Can we use the hole to Australia that Mons. Macron is digging for himself to give a fall of 6,000 km?
    A straight hole to Austrailia would of course allow you to get there in 42 mins just by jumping in*.

    (*Assuming you can find a way to keep it evacuated of air and, er, molten magma for the duration.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773

    Headlines that have aged well, part 471

    "Sturgeon told ‘find new customer’ for independent Scotland's energy as UK would cut ties"

    https://tinyurl.com/4k4byk8h
    I thought you were going to link to Nicola opposing the development of North Sea oil fields so as to reduce our imports.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Yes. It's better to have one parent who provides a good role model, than two parents of whom one provides a dreadful role model.
    Surprisingly the data suggests otherwise
  • Yes, it is enormous. But the national Grid is something like 90GW. so you need 2TWh to run the country for 24h.

    So you'd need a couple of hundred Dinorwig facilities to run the country for a single 24h period.

    Even if you say 6 hours, you need 50.

    Big problem to solve.......
    Very stark
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,505
    Charles said:

    It was all Ed Milliband’s fault😀
    There were next to no profitable pits for coal in the UK. Unless you artificially held the price up. Way up above the world average.

    Some years ago, a BBC (I think) documentary took a former miner round the world to see energy production in various places. They came to coal mine - I think it might have been Canada - opencast etc. The look on his face when one of though stupendous trucks went past...

    It was carrying more coal than a shift at his old pit could dig. One truck.
  • Dinorwic is enormous and well worth a visit
    Not as worth it as it once was.. From wiki

    "The power station was also promoted as a tourist attraction, with visitors able to take a minibus trip from "Electric Mountain" - the name of its nearby visitor centre - to see the workings inside the power station; 132,000 people visited the attraction in 2015. However, the centre is now closed with no prospect of reopening."

    Also from wiki..

    " The project – begun in 1974 and taking ten years to complete at a cost of £425 million – was the largest civil engineering contract ever awarded by the UK government at the time. .... The scheme paid for itself within two years.[citation needed]"

    Is this true?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Taz said:

    FBPE twitter unlikely to comment on that.
    I can also report an extreme shortage of granola at the Newark Marriott
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773

    Chicken shortages at McDs

    https://twitter.com/TripperheadToo/status/1438381686157283334

    In Hong Kong.

    The great McDonald's "Crispy Chicken Wings Drought of 2021" continues.

    Currently 43 of the 245 McDonald's outlets in Hong Kong have run out.

    Obviously Brexit is responsible. The details will follow.
  • Not as worth it as it once was.. From wiki

    "The power station was also promoted as a tourist attraction, with visitors able to take a minibus trip from "Electric Mountain" - the name of its nearby visitor centre - to see the workings inside the power station; 132,000 people visited the attraction in 2015. However, the centre is now closed with no prospect of reopening."

    Also from wiki..

    " The project – begun in 1974 and taking ten years to complete at a cost of £425 million – was the largest civil engineering contract ever awarded by the UK government at the time. .... The scheme paid for itself within two years.[citation needed]"

    Is this true?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station
    I went through it years ago and I must admit I did not know tours had ended
  • U-turn incoming?

    NEW: @resfoundation say four in ten households on Universal Credit face a 13 per cent rise in their energy bills in same month as their benefit is cut by £20 a week. Serious concerns about many being pulled into poverty.
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1439927715625308162?s=20
  • U-turn incoming?

    NEW: @resfoundation say four in ten households on Universal Credit face a 13 per cent rise in their energy bills in same month as their benefit is cut by £20 a week. Serious concerns about many being pulled into poverty.
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1439927715625308162?s=20

    Let us hope so
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Yes I feel very good about that. Good riddance to bigotry and hatred in this sector and in society in general.

    You claim that a "referral" should be a suitable solution instead of just not being bigoted in the first place but if a referral is good enough for some it should be good enough for all.

    If you don't think a referral for all is good enough, then why should it be for the minority whom this "charity" wished to exclude despite equal rights legislation.

    I think being hateful and bigoted to others is a terrible strain on society that causes real harm. I think having equal rights legislation and equality before the law is a very good thing entirely and let any institution that can't keep up with the law fade into history where it belongs.
    The hate filled person would seem to be you, actually. A bigot is somebody who has mindless allegiance to a country. The Church has a reasoned theological case about gay couples - dead wrong, of course, but you treat that as a golden opportunity to see the worst in someone. Like the nimby thing - you are incapable of believing that anyone cares for the English countryside as something uniquely beautiful and irreplaceable: it's an axiom to you that anyone expressing that sentiment is automatically lying. You sound like that genuinely lamented former poster here who held it as an article of faith that every single leave voter was motivated purely by racism and xenophobia. Every last one of them. How do you feel about they particular assumption of bad faith?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563
    Charles said:

    What I don’t get is why is the government talk about bailing out the small companies with crappy business models. They took a risk and their equity should be wiped out

    Transfer the customers and agree a subsidy between the current rate and the average spot rate over the next 6-9 months. You can’t ask a company to buy into a loss making contract without support
    I don't think "the people" will grasp the nuances of the moral hazard that PT has been pointing out which means that "on your watch" will be dozens of energy companies going bust and energy companies are good, right, some of them even have super green-sounding names.

    Is your problem.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,505

    I went through it years ago and I must admit I did not know tours had ended
    The reason it paid for itself, was as a reliable backstop to the grid, IIRC

    Not as energy storage as such - but having power rapidly available independently of the other generation methods.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    TOPPING said:

    It was that which is used to smooth supply plus...a huge flood in demand for energy globally; Russia is being unhelpful and restricting demand as per the AEP article; maintenance on gas platforms in the North Sea; we have had some nuclear outage; and the wind hasn't been blowing in the past few weeks.

    According to R4 this morning (08.13).
    I drove past several large wind farms on my way to Stirling this morning. They were all still. In late September this is positively weird. When I looked this morning we were generating twice as much electricity from solar than wind. On 20th September.

    My suspicion is that this cannot last and the wind will return taking the sting out of this. The fact AEP states that disaster is now inevitable boosts my confidence considerably.
  • At least Boris is not the most unpopular politician in Scotland look who is

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1439854668797157379?s=19
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    kinabalu said:

    Hardly 'lol' to get a view from their angle. It's an integral part of the 360. But, ok, tbf, when I saw the version "leaked from Downing St" explaining how Boris Johnson's role in things was akin to Captain Marvel and we were now at the very heart of a great new Anglo alliance that would rock the world to its core, I did succumb to a little chuckle. So touche, I suppose.
    The point is that the Americans have also said it was the UK side that wanted to turn this into the "Anglo alliance" rather than just a submarine deal. The NYT, usually scathing about Boris, Brexit and the UK, admitted he played a blinder and they aren't exactly going to parrot lines from Downing Street.

    If it was just Downing Street saying Boris did it then I'd agree, it would just be Boris bigging up some minor involvement, I have no love for the guy and would like to see him replaced ASAP. The fact that two liberal American newspapers of note (NYT and WaPo) both say the same as what Downing Street are saying and the Australians have confirmed that they initially approached the UK about a submarine deal which the UK helped to convince the US to turn into an anti-China Anglo alliance means that it probably was Boris. What is more convincing is that it speaks to everything Boris likes to do, a big shiny thing he can put his name on. It's the military alliance version of Boris Bikes.

    That it has turned into Suez mk.II for France is probably not what was intended. I actually think that none of the three nations set out to burn France as badly as this and eventually France will be invited into an associate membership where they have decision making input over fleet deployments etc... but aren't party to the tech sharing aspects.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited September 2021
    DavidL said:

    I drove past several large wind farms on my way to Stirling this morning. They were all still. In late September this is positively weird. When I looked this morning we were generating twice as much electricity from solar than wind. On 20th September.

    My suspicion is that this cannot last and the wind will return taking the sting out of this. The fact AEP states that disaster is now inevitable boosts my confidence considerably.
    I bought a sail boat about 6 weeks ago. I am convinces that the wind drought we have suffered ever since is a direct result of that purchase.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    It's not whataboutery since we do have equalities legislation and since this conversation began with Charles bemoaning the fact an exemption wasn't given to the equalities legislation to the Catholic agencies.

    Why should Catholic agencies be exempt from the law that applies to secular agencies?

    If you wish to argue equalities legislation is a bad thing then that's a position to argue. However if equalities legislation is a good thing then why shouldn't the law apply to all equally?

    As it happens my view of liberalism is essentially "do whatever you want, so long as it doesn't harm others". Equalities legislation is about preventing harm to others so I'm ok with that.
    My positioned was more nuanced.

    I always focus on outcomes - the lack of capacity in the sector meant worse outcomes for the primary beneficiaries of the service.

    But same sex couples should have the right to adopt as well. So there was a workaround developed that didn’t worsen outcomes for children. All it needed was a little flexibility on all sides…
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563
    DavidL said:

    I drove past several large wind farms on my way to Stirling this morning. They were all still. In late September this is positively weird. When I looked this morning we were generating twice as much electricity from solar than wind. On 20th September.

    My suspicion is that this cannot last and the wind will return taking the sting out of this. The fact AEP states that disaster is now inevitable boosts my confidence considerably.
    Boris thinks the market will sort it out. You are looking to a higher authority :smile:

    Also, talking of the latter, I think can we please add to the commonly used on PB namely bible references eg Deuteronomy 28:12 the equally authoritative as per my post above eg: R4 08:13.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    The hate filled person would seem to be you, actually. A bigot is somebody who has mindless allegiance to a country. The Church has a reasoned theological case about gay couples - dead wrong, of course, but you treat that as a golden opportunity to see the worst in someone. Like the nimby thing - you are incapable of believing that anyone cares for the English countryside as something uniquely beautiful and irreplaceable: it's an axiom to you that anyone expressing that sentiment is automatically lying. You sound like that genuinely lamented former poster here who held it as an article of faith that every single leave voter was motivated purely by racism and xenophobia. Every last one of them. How do you feel about they particular assumption of bad faith?
    You're absolutely ridiculous and grasping at straws.

    A bigot is not what you said. A bigot is "a person who is obstinately or unreasonably attached to a belief, opinion, or faction, especially one who is prejudiced against or antagonistic towards a person or people on the basis of their membership of a particular group."

    Being antagonistic against gay people due to your "theological case against them" absolutely 100% falls under that definition.

    That doesn't make all religious people hate filled bigots. Only those that are hate filled bigots are hate filled bigots.

    Being so hateful against gay people that you'd sooner shut down than potentially help a gay person. Yes that's 100% hate filled bigotry and good riddance to any "charity" with such a belief system.

    No point getting into the NIMBY debate with you again. You have already demonstrated your inconsistencies many times over and I get how upset you are at being called out on your hypocrisy so why re-enter that debate again?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    TOPPING said:

    Boris thinks the market will sort it out. You are looking to a higher authority :smile:

    Also, talking of the latter, I think can we please add to the commonly used on PB namely bible references eg Deuteronomy 28:12 the equally authoritative as per my post above eg: R4 08:13.
    How can the market sort it out? There's a price cap. The whole market is broken.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563
    edited September 2021
    MaxPB said:

    How can the market sort it out? There's a price cap. The whole market is broken.
    Oh Max. Oh Max, Max, Max, Max.

    I know that. You know that. But Boris fervently believes that the listeners of R4, to say nothing of the wider British public, do not.

    Such a tactic has not failed him to date and he evidently believes it will work this time round also.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited September 2021
    Prince Andrew has another grandchild as Princes Beatrice has given birth to a daughter, though she will be only 11th in the line of succession now behind Charles, William, George, Charlotte, Louis, Harry, Archie, Lilibet and Andrew himself and her mother

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58627115
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    IshmaelZ said:

    I bought a sail boat about 6 weeks ago. I am convinces that the wind drought we have suffered ever since is a direct result of that purchase.
    Can you please sell it again? We need about 20gw of wind nowish
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138
    BREAKING: There will NOT be a showdown vote on Universal Credit tonight - because Iain Duncan Smith's amendment has not been selected by the Speaker
    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1439932970681442311
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    You're absolutely ridiculous and grasping at straws.

    A bigot is not what you said. A bigot is "a person who is obstinately or unreasonably attached to a belief, opinion, or faction, especially one who is prejudiced against or antagonistic towards a person or people on the basis of their membership of a particular group."

    Being antagonistic against gay people due to your "theological case against them" absolutely 100% falls under that definition.

    That doesn't make all religious people hate filled bigots. Only those that are hate filled bigots are hate filled bigots.

    Being so hateful against gay people that you'd sooner shut down than potentially help a gay person. Yes that's 100% hate filled bigotry and good riddance to any "charity" with such a belief system.

    No point getting into the NIMBY debate with you again. You have already demonstrated your inconsistencies many times over and I get how upset you are at being called out on your hypocrisy so why re-enter that debate again?
    No. It only looks like hypocrisy to you because of your stone cold certainty that all that motivates me is the value of my house. It looks to me as if the value of my house is entirely irrelevant to me, because I intend to die in it, and the less it is worth, the less people can tax me on it. But I must be lying about that, mustn't I? Because I just must be. Like I said, axiomatic.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    MaxPB said:

    How can the market sort it out? There's a price cap. The whole market is broken.
    The retail market was always rewarding the savvy at the expense of the vulnerable. Is that the kind of society we want?
  • The reason it paid for itself, was as a reliable backstop to the grid, IIRC

    Not as energy storage as such - but having power rapidly available independently of the other generation methods.
    Yes, ISTR that Dinorwig can go from 0 to full output in a matter of seconds, but obviously can't keep it up for long. Ideal for those kettle moments during ad breaks in popular programmes, i.e. peak flattening.

    As regards renewable intermittency, there is surely still plenty of scope for demand management. We need to get used to paying large consumers to cut their electricity consumption when demand outstrips supply as well as making use of all those car batteries that'll be sitting outside people's homes soon.
  • Charles said:

    My positioned was more nuanced.

    I always focus on outcomes - the lack of capacity in the sector meant worse outcomes for the primary beneficiaries of the service.

    But same sex couples should have the right to adopt as well. So there was a workaround developed that didn’t worsen outcomes for children. All it needed was a little flexibility on all sides…
    Being "focused on outcomes" especially when it comes to organised religion is part of the problem.

    "Oh this charity does a lot of good, so why does it matter if it's going to break equalities legislation? Give it an exception."

    "Oh this Church does a lot of good, so why does it matter if a priest is abusing children. Let's keep the big picture in mind."

    "Our religion does a lot of good and saves people's eternal souls, so why does it matter if heathens die to convert them?"

    And it's not just organised religion you see it in Oxfam "our charity does a lot of good, so why does it matter if our staff are sexually abusing people in nations we are working in" and many other institutions.

    And not just charities but that attitude infects politics too. "the Labour Party does a lot of good, so why does it matter if a few Jews are abused?"

    I'm not prepared to give an exception to the law no matter how much "good" a charity supposedly is. If the law has a good reason to be applied it should be applied equally to all, no blind eyes.
  • MaxPB said:

    How can the market sort it out? There's a price cap. The whole market is broken.
    The market would be broken even without the cap right now because certain businesses were selling fixed price contracts below the cap and buying energy at spot prices without fixing their costs or having a hedge in place.

    Selling fixed and buying variable without a hedge is a broken business model whenever the variable gets too far varied.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    DavidL said:

    I drove past several large wind farms on my way to Stirling this morning. They were all still. In late September this is positively weird. When I looked this morning we were generating twice as much electricity from solar than wind. On 20th September.

    My suspicion is that this cannot last and the wind will return taking the sting out of this. The fact AEP states that disaster is now inevitable boosts my confidence considerably.
    The fact AEP is writing about it is the sole reason why I don't actually think this is going to be a long term problem.
  • eek said:

    The fact AEP is writing about it is the sole reason why I don't actually think this is going to be a long term problem.
    Can someone get Peston to write about it just to guarantee it won't be ...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,505

    Yes, ISTR that Dinorwig can go from 0 to full output in a matter of seconds, but obviously can't keep it up for long. Ideal for those kettle moments during ad breaks in popular programmes, i.e. peak flattening.

    As regards renewable intermittency, there is surely still plenty of scope for demand management. We need to get used to paying large consumers to cut their electricity consumption when demand outstrips supply as well as making use of all those car batteries that'll be sitting outside people's homes soon.
    IIRC loads for restarting other power stations was also a factor - it was expensive and not as reliable to keep extra capacity on standby.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690

    The market would be broken even without the cap right now because certain businesses were selling fixed price contracts below the cap and buying energy at spot prices without fixing their costs or having a hedge in place.

    Selling fixed and buying variable without a hedge is a broken business model whenever the variable gets too far varied.
    Well part of that was the price cap. Why offer a variable rate contract when you can just fix to the regulated price cap?

    It's also completely destroyed any investment incentive within the private sector and the state energy strategy is a complete mess.

    The price cap is the ultimate reason we're in the shit here, predictably, it has resulted in years of underinvestment by private corporations in energy generation capacity to protect margins.
This discussion has been closed.