What do we think of Isam’s CON majority bet? – politicalbetting.com
What do we think of Isam’s CON majority bet? – politicalbetting.com
On the previous thread PBer Isam wrote that he had just bet on the CON majority for the next general election. He didn’t tell us what odds he got but at the time the party was about a 40% chance on Betfair.
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I do get the feeling that the next one will be a 1992 one though. The manifest problems of Tory rule stored up, ignored, or dismissed will burst out into the open. In a flood not a trickle.
A credible Labour leader will be the catalyst. One who looks forward not back.
Will Boris have retired? He was quoted at the weekend as wanting to break Mrs Thatcher's record but he almost has to say something along those lines even if he plans to quit next week.
Will it be 2024, which limits flexibility? Normally, you'd expect a dominant government to call an election after four years, at a time to suit itself.
Will it be 2024 which is the Queen's Platinum Jubilee year which might limit campaigning?
But good luck.
They do not say what the planned maintenance is but hardware replacement might be possible after recent outages; we can probably take the 10am end-time as flexible.
That said, the last 5 years has shown extraordinary political volatility and realignment, and that may well continue.
I think @isam has a good bet. The next election looks more like 1992 to me than 1997. Labour are not yet a credible alternative government, even though voters are looking increasingly disgruntled with the current lot.
Now, sadly, science has trundled along to back it up. According to Dr Ryan Dougherty, from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, the more television you watch in middle age, the lower your volume in grey matter. Examining the viewing habits of 599 American adults between 1990 and 2011, Dougherty found that those who watched an above average amount of television showed reduced volume in their frontal cortex and entorhinal cortex. Basically, your mum was right: TV really does rot your brain.
If we guess that he managed to get a four figure sum on at near best published prices then I think it is alright. Not spectacular, but not a total dud. Not headline material either way. But then serious punters are pretty much non-existent on PB these days, so I can understand eager guzzling of thin gruel.
I think NOM and Lab Maj are overpriced, so by definition Con Maj looks reasonable value. But try getting a grand on at most bookies! Good luck. If you consistently win (like me) then you are allowed 50p stakes, or worse: they simply close your account.
I’d personally prefer to risk my grand on equities, and I am of the strong opinion that the shit is about to hit the fan on global bourses. But even in a steep fall, you don’t lose *all* your money, which you do if you hand the spondoolicks over to Shadsy. And not tied up for two to three years either.
Summary: as a trading bet C. As a hold bet F. As a bit of fun for somebody for whom a grand is pocket money B.
Of course, most likely is far from certain.
Credible, problem is that we do live in volatile times and polling, as Ed Miliband found, isn't always indicative of how people will vote. I think it'll probably come off.
1) It is 1970 since a party with this size of majority lost office at an election.
2) Boundary changes make winning many former Labour seats back just that little bit harder.
3) The aftershock of Brexit may be important but the key question is where Brexit party voters go. They appear to have been mostly disillusioned Labour voters who didn’t want to vote Tory. They have three options (1) to go the whole hog and vote Tory, as in Hartlepool, in which case another 50-odd Labour seats suddenly look vulnerable (2) to return to Labour, which is what they did in Wales at the assembly elections, in which case NOM is value or (3) to abstain.
I think probably around half will go for three on the basis neither party represents them. The rest I think it will vary by MP, which is where I think Brexiteer MPs in the red wall may get an incumbency bonus this time.
I think a lot of negatives will hit the Tories before the next election.
Tax rises will be felt.
Brexit will be "done" and Red Wall voters will no longer need to be grateful.
More sleaze and corruption will emerge, much but not all over Covid contracts.
NHS waiting lists will still be large.
Migrants will still be crossing thr channel.
If Starmer can avoid doing a Kinnock enough voters will feel it's time for a change and he has a good chance of preventing Con Maj.
The Conservative vote share has been climbing, to varying degrees, for the last six general elections on the bounce. With Farage out of the picture and his vehicles piled up in the junkyard, a seventh increase seems plausible. At this stage I'd be inclined to back a three-figure Government majority next time around.
*The answer is ‘yes’, btw, because this lot only think in short terms.
I'm firmly of the view that to become PM from LotO, you have to be very good. Is Starmer up to it? I suspect not, but he has time to surprise us.
However... Even if the Conservatives manage to maintain their vote share in 2024, I suspect they'll still lose seats (after boundary effects), simply because voters get better at tactical voting.
There’s an awful lot to happen before the next election though, and while the pandemic was good for govt popularity, it also means the difficult decisions are more difficult than usual, and being taken later in the Parliament than usual.
October 2023 is my guess for the GE date, so there’s only two years before Parliament gets dissolved. There needs to be quick progress towards levelling up in the North, transferring dozens of civil servants out of London won’t by itself do that job.
Is that better?
Speaking for myself, I would love to see the Tories evicted from office, but it’s tough to see a pathway for them to lose their overall majority. A Blair style swing would do it but not much else.
What I think is more plausible is that they will end up with a majority in single figures followed a couple of years later by another election.
The only obvious ways to me that the majority goes up, is if :
1. Scotland plays a big part in the UK-wide campaign, and Labour don’t rule out working with the SNP.
Or
2. Even more of the Red Wall turns blue, as a result of serious investment being seen to happen in those seats that voted blue in 2019.
When Blair was dominant we had a Labour government implementing some pretty Toryish ideas such as public sector reform as well as some more centrist ones. It left the Tories nowhere to go but to howl at the moon about minority interests. Now we have a Tory government implementing Labour ideas such as higher taxes and higher public spending. How does Labour defeat that? Some Tories are disillusioned as we see somewhat disproportionately on these threads but Boris is running a centrist administration with strands for different folks. He is going to be almost impossible to beat short of the wheels coming off in a massive way.
A plausible route is mass defections of educated Tories to the LibDems in the Home Counties, as the Tories continue to take their offering down market.
Looking at past results, most of the seats look a stretch, but then who would have expected Tory MPs for Wakefield, Mansfield, Stoke and Bolsover?
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/05/16/the-case-for-labour-making-an-electoral-pact/
The scope for the anti-Tory vote become much more efficient on its own is limited. They start with 317 seats in which they won 47.5% or more of the vote. Only once (Newcastle-under-Lyme, 2017) have the Tories hit that percentage and lost since 1979.
Here are the other 48 seats:
Constituency, Con Share, First/Second, Majority
YNYS MON, 35.5%, ConLab, 5.4 pp
KENSINGTON, 38.3%, ConLab, 0.3 pp
WIMBLEDON, 38.4%, ConLib, 1.2 pp
ASHFIELD, 39.3%, ConOth, 11.7 pp
CITIES OF LONDON AND WESTMINSTER, 39.9%, ConLib, 9.3 pp
BURNLEY, 40.3%, ConLab, 3.5 pp
NORTH WEST DURHAM, 41.9%, ConLab, 2.4 pp
CARSHALTON AND WALLINGTON, 42.4%, ConLib, 1.3 pp
WEST ABERDEENSHIRE AND KINCARDINE, 42.7%, ConSNP, 1.6 pp
BLYTH VALLEY, 42.7%, ConLab, 1.7 pp
HEYWOOD AND MIDDLETON, 43.1%, ConLab, 1.4 pp
BRIDGEND, 43.1%, ConLab, 2.7 pp
DON VALLEY, 43.2%, ConLab, 8.0 pp
DELYN, 43.7%, ConLab, 2.3 pp
BURY SOUTH, 43.8%, ConLab, 0.8 pp
FINCHLEY AND GOLDERS GREEN, 43.8%, ConLib, 11.9 pp
DUMFRIES AND GALLOWAY, 44.1%, ConSNP, 3.5 pp
CLWYD SOUTH, 44.7%, ConLab, 3.4 pp
CHIPPING BARNET, 44.7%, ConLab, 2.1 pp
GUILDFORD, 44.9%, ConLib, 5.7 pp
ROTHER VALLEY, 45.1%, ConLab, 13.0 pp
DERBY NORTH, 45.2%, ConLab, 5.4 pp
WYCOMBE, 45.2%, ConLab, 7.7 pp
LEIGH, 45.3%, ConLab, 4.2 pp
MORAY, 45.3%, ConSNP, 1.1 pp
WREXHAM, 45.3%, ConLab, 6.4 pp
BOLTON NORTH EAST, 45.4%, ConLab, 0.9 pp
STOKE-ON-TRENT CENTRAL, 45.4%, ConLab, 2.1 pp
GEDLING, 45.5%, ConLab, 1.4 pp
WATFORD, 45.5%, ConLab, 7.6 pp
WARRINGTON SOUTH, 45.5%, ConLab, 3.2 pp
HIGH PEAK, 45.9%, ConLab, 1.1 pp
CHEADLE, 46.0%, ConLib, 4.2 pp
DUMFRIESSHIRE, CLYDESDALE AND TWEEDDALE, 46.0%, ConSNP, 7.7 pp
TRURO AND FALMOUTH, 46.0%, ConLab, 7.7 pp
REDCAR, 46.1%, ConLab, 8.6 pp
ABERCONWY, 46.1%, ConLab, 6.4 pp
BURY NORTH, 46.2%, ConLab, 0.2 pp
BIRMINGHAM, NORTHFIELD, 46.3%, ConLab, 3.8 pp
SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE, 46.3%, ConLib, 4.3 pp
VALE OF CLWYD, 46.4%, ConLab, 4.9 pp
DEWSBURY, 46.4%, ConLab, 2.8 pp
WEST BROMWICH EAST, 46.7%, ConLab, 4.4 pp
PETERBOROUGH, 46.7%, ConLab, 5.4 pp
HITCHIN AND HARPENDEN, 47.1%, ConLib, 11.7 pp
SEDGEFIELD, 47.2%, ConLab, 10.9 pp
WAKEFIELD, 47.3%, ConLab, 7.5 pp
BOLSOVER, 47.4%, ConLab, 11.5 pp
Okay, so boundary changes make this difficult to assess (the cities seat is being split up, etc.), but the Tory vote needs to be eroded in most of these for them to come into play.
If the’re offering 2/1 on an increased majority, they should be offering close to 1/2 (let’s be generous, 2/5) on a reduced majority or NOM. Which I’ll bite their hand off for, all day every day, even this far out.
The omens for this administration aren't good, and a lot may happen over the next 18-24 months - both economically and geopolitically.
The only real bank they have is that Starmer is about as effective as a deflated octopus, but it's not enough to tempt me at present.
Pass.
On paper they absolutely should win again. Big majority, broad base, ineffective opposition. And yet people now expect delivery of the promises they backed. Boris and the clown car have no idea how to do this, people get quickly bored of empty rhetoric even when they used to like the speaker, it can go south and quickly.
Unless of course the inevitable happens. The Tories are very good at removing the leader when they are the problem. The Tory government adopting many labour policies absolutely could be a route to another 10 years, but not if they are seen as incompetent and uncaring. The Coffey gaffe yesterday does them no favours. But switch the leader? Then I'd anticipate isam's bet winning.
Unfortunately, they are Liberal Democrats.
https://edition.cnn.com/style/article/aoc-met-gala-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-dress/index.html
Slippery slope...
Police in Australia and the USA developed a “Secure Messaging Phone”, which they supplied to underworld markets to see what would happen. All of the secure messages ended up with the AFP and FBI, and they were able to make 800 arrests, including big-time drug dealers, gang leaders and assassins.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/11/inside-story-most-daring-surveillance-sting-in-history?source=techstories.org
Out of how many times when govt had majority over 50, has it lost it.
They will want a referendum, and money of course.
Hypocrite politicians, who consider themselves celebrities rather than public servants, are clearly a global problem.
Incidentally I thought Musk’s recent comments on inheritance tax interesting. Fully in favour on the basis that it’s rare for progeny to be equally good at capital allocation. He frequently makes the point that being in control of large pools of capital is not necessarily the same thing as being “rich”, though the two often go hand in hand. In his case he seems to have been ahead of the curve of his Chinese counterparts in selling down personal assets and focusing on the former than the latter.
That doesn't mean that the Conservatives will lose their majority next time. A lot of it depends on whether it's better to think of politics as being near the end of Year 2 in a 5 year cycle, or in Year 1 of a 3 year cycle after a Covid hibernation.
But yes. A Conservative win next time is likely, but I'm not sure it's overwhelmingly so. And it depends a lot on when the current trend breaks.
You cannot tell people on UC that the cut is just 2 hours work. Because it isn't. Patronising hard-working red wallers, telling them that black is white is a sure way to abruptly lose their vote.
Tories need to be very careful. Punters have been promised levelling up money AND Brexit benefits to jobs, communities and the NHS. Unless that shows up there will be trouble. But significantly worse will be what Coffey shows they are likely to do - deny there are any problems. "We haven't delivered but x is the excuse" is better than "oh look, a new hospital!" as they open a new ward.
At the next election my vote is currently up for grabs, and I'm currently leaning towards voting Lib Dem - but if Davey reaches a pact with Starmer that would be one way for him to lose my vote.
My thoughts so far. Rhys Stevenson has had professional dance training and I think will be very good. Ticks the box for reaching the final 3 (or is it a final 4 now I cant remember). But i think he will be too good too soon to meet the improving likeable amateur profile needed to win.
So I think a back for the final but a lay for the win. Currently 7/1 3rd fav. But not much e/w on offer yet or reach the final betting. Think he will shorten after his opening dance.
Still annoyed the BBC gerrymandered their own contest with Lisa Snowdon and Rachel Stevens to guarantee Tom Chambers a place in a three-way final (which was utterly contrary to both natural justice and my own betting situation).
Some wonderful microscopy photos:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/09/nikon-small-world-microscopy-contest-2021-a-few-of-our-favorites/
Labour need 280 seats. That's it.
None of that necessarily means much in the long run - but the odds against a Tory win will be as good as they will be for a while after.
This is the lesson that was rapidly learned in Scotland by the rise and now dominance of the SNP. Political parties do not have to be aligned only to "are you Labour" or "are you Tory"."
Backing this outcome at 40% would be rational, but so is backing NOM. Neither attracts me.
Analysis of seats individually has only limited and reflection on current majorities has little resonance. Quite a lot of Tory seats are new ground and could be quickly lost to a populist message.
Someone who now thinks the Tories actually will win next time come what may (unlike me) would do better IMHO to wait until some (more) wheels come off the government and jump in at better odds.
But it is not correct in my view to be reasonably sure that the combined efforts of Labour, LD, SNP and some right leaning populist could not together take 40 seats off the Tories.
Nippy seems to be rowing back on her dates as we speak ( less confident of the result?) and perhaps a non-Conservative government will be less loathed from North of Hadrian's wall and voters less likely want to leave the UK. Maybe not
But 1997 was the exception not the rule, but its been treated as the rule ever since.
Plus actually That's utterly misleading though. The Lib Dems lost a 1.0% share, but the Tories lost an 11.2% share. So there was a 5.1% Tory -> LD swing.
You should expect LD gains on a 5% UNS even without any tactical voting so to claim the LDs had a reduced vote but to omit that the Tories lost considerably more is not the full picture.
If the LDs had gained 1% while the Tories had lost 9.2% it would have been the same swing.
TMay got a higher vote share in 2017 than Dave did in 2015. The majority vanished because the anti-Conservative vote was distributed more inconveniently.
The Conservative vote barely moved between 1979 and 1992. What changed was the willingness of non-Conservatives to vote for the best placed alternative, whoever they are. And that fed through to Conservative majorities of 144 and 21.
And in all those cases, it was a pretty accurate reflection of the overall will of the people.
Boris would triumph of course if he allowed a Ref2 and won; but the tiny chance (5-10%?) he would lose will be enough to stop him.
Nicola of course is finished if there is Ref2 and she loses; but her real nightmare is what happens if the outsider romps home and she wins?
Only Salmond has nothing to lose from Ref2, and that is because he has nothing to lose.
Betway are quite out of line at 3/1 for 2023. Others are 9/4 or shorter. Havent checked the exchange.
2024 or later is best priced 8/13.
I'm sure one of these is a winner as cant see a 2022 election.
Labour - 36.1% of the GB vote
Lab share of the vote, Wins, Win Rate
Under 37.5%, 15, 6%
37.5% to 42.5%, 54, 74%
42.5% to 47.5%, 104, 100%
Over 47.5%, 182, 100%
Total, 355, 57%
Compare with the Conservatives in 2019...
Conservatives - 44.7% of the GB vote
Con share of the vote, Wins, Win Rate
Under 37.5%, 1, 0%
37.5% to 42.5%, 7, 16%
42.5% to 47.5%, 40, 85%
Over 47.5%, 317, 100%
Total, 365, 58%