2 polls on the day the govt taxed workers more & gave pensioners an increase – politicalbetting.com
SNAP POLL: Britons are split 44% to 43% on raising National Insurance by 1.25pts to pay for NHS and social careAll Brits – 44% support / 43% opposeCon voters – 59% / 34%Lab voters – 33% / 55%18-24 yr olds – 26% / 47%65+ yr olds – 68% / 23%https://t.co/4ZxN7IzdmX pic.twitter.com/g7ybZdmPbH
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Test0
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EdgeTheScreamingEagles said:Test
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"It's so unfair."0
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BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold
Just another day on PB...5 -
You already know I rate your posts!Carnyx said:
I'm retired and I agree with Ishmael and Kinabalu.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I've not often said this but you are one of my favourite posters, a straight shooter.IshmaelZ said:
I'm retired and I hate it. So does @kinabalu, so that's 2 of us.CorrectHorseBattery said:So as we thought, those working hate this and those who don't, love it.
A class politics BoJo - now the young should come and vote this lot out
And so does Kinabalu0 -
I'm not old enough to remember how the poll tax situation developed. Was that a slow burn that then exploded? What was the trigger? As much as I think this policy is immoral and wrong (albeit in the long run one that probably benefits me financially), it's hard to see a quartet of Philip, Casino, Max and Moonshine, with an army of angry 18-24 year olds at our backs, causing the downfall of the government.2
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So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.
However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote0 -
So Labour voters want to cut funding to the NHS? The poll is a gift to the Tories.0
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So, apart from being announced mid term not mid election, how exactly does Boris plan differ from May’s?0
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A lot of those findings mirror the political preference of the voter age group (the younger you are, the more critical you are of government policy), but the scrapping of the triple lock gets a remarkable raspberry from the elderly.2
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I'll remind you of that adage.GIN1138 said:BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold
Just another day on PB...
There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.7 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll remind you of that adage.GIN1138 said:BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold
Just another day on PB...
There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
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I suspect there will be a grim NHS winter this year and that is in part driving this move. It was already collapsing at the seams before Covid, but was somewhat disguised by the pandemic. Now there is an overhang. The Tory government will want to get out ahead of the bad news1
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Weibo, China's heavily censored version of Twitter, announced it has suspended 21 fan accounts dedicated to various K-pop artists due to "irrational star-chasing behavior."
https://twitter.com/cnni/status/14349195858416640050 -
PB is very unusual. Look at the region figures:GIN1138 said:BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold
Just another day on PB...
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/07/fb53b/2
The general public really don't understand how the current system works and who the changes benefit. Jon Trickett brought up the big difference in house prices, but Starmer didn't go there. And unless he brings it up, the media won't be interested.
Instead, the Labour front bench and the media are busy talking about broken manifesto promises.3 -
I was asking on FPT what the provlems with devolved income tax were - this is one reply, at least for Scotland (presumably similar also for Wales).
https://fraserofallander.org/funding-a-rise-in-social-care-spending-england-implications-for-the-scottish-budget/
"We are used to hearing that the devolution settlement is constraining the policy choices of the Scottish Government. The notion that the devolution settlement might potentially constrain the UK Government’s policy choices comes as something of a surprise.
Whether or not these issues are significant enough to justify a potential UK Government decision to fund an increase in social care spending increase via NICs rather than IT is debateable. And to be fair, it is clear that other considerations, beyond the thorny mechanics of the devolved fiscal framework, have influenced the UK Government’s apparent preference for relying on NICs.
But it is also clear that there are material issues here which the UK Government might be concerned about. These are likely to feature heavily in the upcoming review of the fiscal framework."1 -
How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?HYUFD said:So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.
However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote
What is significantly different with this one?0 -
Someone who can sell a plan compared to someone who can't?gealbhan said:So, apart from being announced mid term not mid election, how exactly does Boris plan differ from May’s?
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Poll results:
The majority of people vote with their wallet.1 -
In that case, what is the difference between this plan and double glazing? Is it any better than a sealed unit in brown uPVC in resolving the social care crisis?rottenborough said:
Someone who can sell a plan compared to someone who can't?gealbhan said:So, apart from being announced mid term not mid election, how exactly does Boris plan differ from May’s?
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Awww.CorrectHorseBattery said:
You already know I rate your posts!Carnyx said:
I'm retired and I agree with Ishmael and Kinabalu.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I've not often said this but you are one of my favourite posters, a straight shooter.IshmaelZ said:
I'm retired and I hate it. So does @kinabalu, so that's 2 of us.CorrectHorseBattery said:So as we thought, those working hate this and those who don't, love it.
A class politics BoJo - now the young should come and vote this lot out
And so does Kinabalu1 -
"BUT WE PAID OUR TAXES!!!!"NickPalmer said:A lot of those findings mirror the political preference of the voter age group (the younger you are, the more critical you are of government policy), but the scrapping of the triple lock gets a remarkable raspberry from the elderly.
If this doesn't start to generate Labour poll leads then you have to wonder what will.0 -
Boris has played a blinder here. I'll wager that most of the fervid anti-Taxers are also those who voted Brexit. So while some will feel betrayed by Boris a larger amount will stay loyal because of the unsurpassable gift of Brexit that he has bestowed upon them. Amongst everyone else there will be a feeling of indifference or perhaps even grudging support. It's better to enrage some of your friends than upset all your acquaintances.0
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I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll remind you of that adage.GIN1138 said:BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold
Just another day on PB...
There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.1 -
Also: the majority of people want to spend the contents of other people's wallets on themselves.SandyRentool said:Poll results:
The majority of people vote with their wallet.0 -
Test
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So much for people caring about their kids/grandkids generation too.pigeon said:
Also: the majority of people want to spend the contents of other people's wallets on themselves.SandyRentool said:Poll results:
The majority of people vote with their wallet.0 -
It does not affect over 45s too much ie the Tory core vote, though as I said the triple lock must be kept and only suspended for a year.gealbhan said:
How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?HYUFD said:So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.
However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote
What is significantly different with this one?
May's proposal affected anyone with property over £100,000 who would have lost it all if they needed at home social care as would their children and grandchildren. Today's proposal also caps the assets you have to spend on social care at no more than £86,0000 -
I might be working for George soon.JohnO said:
I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll remind you of that adage.GIN1138 said:BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold
Just another day on PB...
There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
I think.
Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).
Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.
PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.2 -
If your house price is £180,000 then what's the difference?HYUFD said:
It does not affect over 45s too much ie the Tory core vote, though as I said the triple lock must be kept and only suspended for a year.gealbhan said:
How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?HYUFD said:So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.
However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote
What is significantly different with this one?
May's proposal affected anyone with property over £100,000 who would have lost it all if they needed at home social care as would their children and grandchildren. Today's proposal also caps the assets you have to spend on social care at no more than £80,000
Apart from higher taxes for workers now?1 -
FPT
Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?CarlottaVance said:The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion
"Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister
Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20
Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.
Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.
It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.6 -
Just had a text message from my GP. "Due to unforeseen road freight challenges" my flu jab is postponed.1
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Sainsbury's sitrep noon today
Masks around 80 per cent so last week's drop has not continued.
Gaps on shelves including bottled water and bin liners, as well as Covid tests!
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The median house price for England is £259,000 ie above that, so the average homeowner and their family would not lose most of the value of their home in care costs down to their last £100,000. Under May's plan they would.Philip_Thompson said:
If your house price is £180,000 then what's the difference?HYUFD said:
It does not affect over 45s too much ie the Tory core vote, though as I said the triple lock must be kept and only suspended for a year.gealbhan said:
How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?HYUFD said:So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.
However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote
What is significantly different with this one?
May's proposal affected anyone with property over £100,000 who would have lost it all if they needed at home social care as would their children and grandchildren. Today's proposal also caps the assets you have to spend on social care at no more than £80,000
Apart from higher taxes for workers now?
https://lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/lgastandard?mod-metric=5230&mod-area=E92000001&mod-group=AllRegions_England&mod-type=namedComparisonGroup
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Good luck TSETheScreamingEagles said:
I might be working for George soon.JohnO said:
I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll remind you of that adage.GIN1138 said:BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold
Just another day on PB...
There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
I think.
Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).
Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.
PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.1 -
That would be the famously discreet Robey Warshaw?TheScreamingEagles said:
I might be working for George soon.JohnO said:
I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll remind you of that adage.GIN1138 said:BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold
Just another day on PB...
There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
I think.
Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).
Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.
PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.2 -
In other polling news:
CDU dropping below 20% for the first time ever in a poll published in postwar Germany
https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1435189981656584194?s=200 -
It was a tax on jobs when Labour were proposing it, and it’s still a tax on jobs when Tories are proposing it.TheScreamingEagles said:
I might be working for George soon.JohnO said:
I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll remind you of that adage.GIN1138 said:BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold
Just another day on PB...
There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
I think.
Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).
Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.
PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.
Good luck with the headhunter.1 -
My claim to fame is that once I attended a lunch hosted by Robey Warshaw and ended up on the same table as Lady Robey.IshmaelZ said:
That would be the famously discreet Robey Warshaw?TheScreamingEagles said:
I might be working for George soon.JohnO said:
I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll remind you of that adage.GIN1138 said:BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold
Just another day on PB...
There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
I think.
Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).
Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.
PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.
Anyhoo I just know this job will in fact be Deutsche.0 -
Yet in Bavaria the CSU are still on nearly 30%, so Soder's party winning Bavaria could mean Bavaria is the only state in Germany the Union wins. This would be very much the CDU and Laschet's defeat as it deserves to beCarlottaVance said:In other polling news:
CDU dropping below 20% for the first time ever in a poll published in postwar Germany
https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1435189981656584194?s=200 -
Would like to see the figures for working age Tory voters.
The pensioners are, by and large, fully bought off.0 -
OT there's an ongoing online auction of sporting memorabilia. Some fascinating lots if you are buying presents for someone that way inclined. Trouble is, it's half over.
https://bidlive.grahambuddauctions.co.uk/auctions/7924/srgrah100301 -
Again with averages?HYUFD said:
The median house price for England is £259,000 ie above that, so the average homeowner and their family would not lose most of the value of their home in care costs down to their last £100,000. Under May's plan they wouldPhilip_Thompson said:
If your house price is £180,000 then what's the difference?HYUFD said:
It does not affect over 45s too much ie the Tory core vote, though as I said the triple lock must be kept and only suspended for a year.gealbhan said:
How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?HYUFD said:So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.
However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote
What is significantly different with this one?
May's proposal affected anyone with property over £100,000 who would have lost it all if they needed at home social care as would their children and grandchildren. Today's proposal also caps the assets you have to spend on social care at no more than £80,000
Apart from higher taxes for workers now?
https://lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/lgastandard?mod-metric=5230&mod-area=E92000001&mod-group=AllRegions_England&mod-type=namedComparisonGroup
So what you're saying is that wealthy Southerners will keep more of their unearned inheritance, while Red Wall voters will get tax rises to pay for that but no benefit?
Bishop Auckland median house price £120,000
Hartlepool median house price £128,500
Leigh median house price £158,500
Indeed its not just the Red Wall, the median house price in the North West and the North East are both less than £180k.
So "levelling up" is giving us tax rises and you an inheritance? 🤔1 -
Good luck but find a better reason for jumping ship.TheScreamingEagles said:
I might be working for George soon.JohnO said:
I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll remind you of that adage.GIN1138 said:BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold
Just another day on PB...
There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
I think.
Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).
Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.
PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.0 -
Yep.Philip_Thompson said:
Again with averages?HYUFD said:
The median house price for England is £259,000 ie above that, so the average homeowner and their family would not lose most of the value of their home in care costs down to their last £100,000. Under May's plan they wouldPhilip_Thompson said:
If your house price is £180,000 then what's the difference?HYUFD said:
It does not affect over 45s too much ie the Tory core vote, though as I said the triple lock must be kept and only suspended for a year.gealbhan said:
How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?HYUFD said:So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.
However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote
What is significantly different with this one?
May's proposal affected anyone with property over £100,000 who would have lost it all if they needed at home social care as would their children and grandchildren. Today's proposal also caps the assets you have to spend on social care at no more than £80,000
Apart from higher taxes for workers now?
https://lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/lgastandard?mod-metric=5230&mod-area=E92000001&mod-group=AllRegions_England&mod-type=namedComparisonGroup
So what you're saying is that wealthy Southerners will keep more of their unearned inheritance, while Red Wall voters will get tax rises to pay for that but no benefit?
Bishop Auckland median house price £120,000
Hartlepool median house price £128,500
Leigh median house price £158,500
Indeed its not just the Red Wall, the median house price in the North West and the North East are both less than £180k.
So "levelling up" is giving us tax rises and you an inheritance? 🤔
It's the traditional Tory way.0 -
I’m pretty confident CHBs bet on a labour poll lead will pay out.pigeon said:
"BUT WE PAID OUR TAXES!!!!"NickPalmer said:A lot of those findings mirror the political preference of the voter age group (the younger you are, the more critical you are of government policy), but the scrapping of the triple lock gets a remarkable raspberry from the elderly.
If this doesn't start to generate Labour poll leads then you have to wonder what will.2 -
Looks like Labour and Lib Dem voters complaining about a policy they supported from a government they dislike.
11th January 2017, "Would you support or oppose increasing the basic rate of employees national insurance from 12% to 13% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS?"
CON: 55% support / 28% oppose (+27)
LAB: 60% support / 22% oppose (+38)
LD: 67% support / 23% oppose (+44)
TOTAL: 53% support / 26% oppose (+27)
20 July 2021, same question:
CON: 64% support / 23% oppose (+41)
LAB: 60% support / 25% oppose (+35)
LD: 68% support / 22% oppose (+46)
TOTAL: 57% support / 25% oppose (+35)
7 September 2021, "The government has announced a rise of 1.25% on National Insurance, which it says will go towards paying for the NHS and social care. Do you support or oppose this rise?"
CON: 59% support / 35% oppose (+24)
LAB: 33% support / 55% oppose (-22)
LD: 50% support / 46% oppose (+4)
TOTAL: 44% support / 43% oppose (+1)4 -
I'm happy where I am, they love me and allow me to be pretty autonomous. Plus they give me unlimited power.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Good luck but find a better reason for jumping ship.TheScreamingEagles said:
I might be working for George soon.JohnO said:
I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll remind you of that adage.GIN1138 said:BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold
Just another day on PB...
There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
I think.
Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).
Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.
PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.
This was an unsolicited phone call.1 -
Most RedWall voters can afford to buy their own property on an average income unlike those south of Watford.Philip_Thompson said:
Again with averages?HYUFD said:
The median house price for England is £259,000 ie above that, so the average homeowner and their family would not lose most of the value of their home in care costs down to their last £100,000. Under May's plan they wouldPhilip_Thompson said:
If your house price is £180,000 then what's the difference?HYUFD said:
It does not affect over 45s too much ie the Tory core vote, though as I said the triple lock must be kept and only suspended for a year.gealbhan said:
How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?HYUFD said:So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.
However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote
What is significantly different with this one?
May's proposal affected anyone with property over £100,000 who would have lost it all if they needed at home social care as would their children and grandchildren. Today's proposal also caps the assets you have to spend on social care at no more than £80,000
Apart from higher taxes for workers now?
https://lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/lgastandard?mod-metric=5230&mod-area=E92000001&mod-group=AllRegions_England&mod-type=namedComparisonGroup
So what you're saying is that wealthy Southerners will keep more of their unearned inheritance, while Red Wall voters will get tax rises to pay for that but no benefit?
Bishop Auckland median house price £120,000
Hartlepool median house price £128,500
Leigh median house price £158,500
Indeed its not just the Red Wall, the median house price in the North West and the North East are both less than £180k.
So "levelling up" is giving us tax rises and you an inheritance? 🤔
Though under this plan even in the Red Wall those needing social care with house values over £100,000 ie most of them would still get to keep some of the value given the £86,000 cap and there would then be state help for those with assets from £20,000-£100,000.
Red Wall voters earn less so in absolute terms pay less NI too0 -
Fair's fair. At least he's started with median today.Philip_Thompson said:
Again with averages?HYUFD said:
The median house price for England is £259,000 ie above that, so the average homeowner and their family would not lose most of the value of their home in care costs down to their last £100,000. Under May's plan they wouldPhilip_Thompson said:
If your house price is £180,000 then what's the difference?HYUFD said:
It does not affect over 45s too much ie the Tory core vote, though as I said the triple lock must be kept and only suspended for a year.gealbhan said:
How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?HYUFD said:So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.
However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote
What is significantly different with this one?
May's proposal affected anyone with property over £100,000 who would have lost it all if they needed at home social care as would their children and grandchildren. Today's proposal also caps the assets you have to spend on social care at no more than £80,000
Apart from higher taxes for workers now?
https://lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/lgastandard?mod-metric=5230&mod-area=E92000001&mod-group=AllRegions_England&mod-type=namedComparisonGroup
So what you're saying is that wealthy Southerners will keep more of their unearned inheritance, while Red Wall voters will get tax rises to pay for that but no benefit?
Bishop Auckland median house price £120,000
Hartlepool median house price £128,500
Leigh median house price £158,500
Indeed its not just the Red Wall, the median house price in the North West and the North East are both less than £180k.
So "levelling up" is giving us tax rises and you an inheritance? 🤔0 -
Of course, now that what's effectively a brand new tax - dedicated, crucially and for the very first time, to Our Beloved NHS - has been created, it probably won't stay at 1.25% for very long...ydoethur said:FPT
Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?CarlottaVance said:The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion
"Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister
Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20
Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.
Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.
It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.0 -
Possibly.Chelyabinsk said:Looks like Labour and Lib Dem voters complaining about a policy they supported from a government they dislike.
11th January 2017, "Would you support or oppose increasing the basic rate of employees national insurance from 12% to 13% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS?"
CON: 55% support /28% oppose (+27)
LAB: 60% support /22% oppose (+38)
LD: 67% support / 23% oppose (+44)
TOTAL: 53% support / 26% oppose (+27)
20 July 2021, same question:
CON: 64% support / 23% oppose (+41)
LAB: 60% support / 25% oppose (+35)
LD: 68% support / 22% oppose (+46)
TOTAL: 57% support / 25% oppose (+35)
7 September 2021, "The government has announced a rise of 1.25% on National Insurance, which it says will go towards paying for the NHS and social care. Do you support or oppose this rise?"
CON: 59% support / 35% oppose (+24)
LAB: 33% support / 55% oppose (-22)
LD: 50% support / 46% oppose (+4)
TOTAL: 44% support / 43% oppose (+1)
Or possibly people answering the question in January didn't realise that pensioners, landlords etc don't pay NI so it's just a tax on them and not a fair tax paid by everyone. And now that's being shared people realise they're getting screwed?
Maybe some decent Boomers have thought that snatching even more money from their grandchildren without being asked to contribute themselves isn't a good idea? Maybe there's some grandparents who don't only think about themselves and actually care for their grandkids?
Unlikely I know but possible.0 -
UK cases by specimen date
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UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K
0 -
UK local R
0 -
I don 't think the triple lock has been scrapped has it (regrettably)? I thought it is to be changed to a double lock for this year only to avoid the ridiculous uplift?NickPalmer said:A lot of those findings mirror the political preference of the voter age group (the younger you are, the more critical you are of government policy), but the scrapping of the triple lock gets a remarkable raspberry from the elderly.
0 -
UK cases summary
0 -
UK hospitals
0 -
UK deaths
0 -
The poll question seems to conform to that temporal restriction - "scrapped this year".Stocky said:
I don 't think the triple lock has been scrapped has it (regrettably)? I thought it is to be changed to a double lock for this year only to avoid the ridiculous uplift?NickPalmer said:A lot of those findings mirror the political preference of the voter age group (the younger you are, the more critical you are of government policy), but the scrapping of the triple lock gets a remarkable raspberry from the elderly.
1 -
Age related data
0 -
OGH better hope that Twitter doesn't similarly crack down on teen icons.williamglenn said:Weibo, China's heavily censored version of Twitter, announced it has suspended 21 fan accounts dedicated to various K-pop artists due to "irrational star-chasing behavior."
https://twitter.com/cnni/status/14349195858416640052 -
OK, it's not unique to this government, but anyone with foresight wouldn't have touched this government with a bargepole.ydoethur said:FPT
Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?CarlottaVance said:The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion
"Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister
Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20
Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.
Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.
It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
Here's the funny thing, though. Until a few hours ago, there was lots of genuine Conservative criticism of this plan as it emerged. And that has melted away like snow on a day like this. I'd want to see tomorrow's Mail, Telegraph and Sun before saying the government are totally out of the woods, but it's amazing really.
And whilst the key principle of the government is that Comrade Johnson is always right, it's striking to see. I can't help thinking of David Low's "They salute with both hands now"...3 -
Age related data scaled to 100K
0 -
An acquaintance once got a cold-call recruitment call from an agency. It turned out it was for a job in the company she was working for. In her department...TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm happy where I am, they love me and allow me to be pretty autonomous. Plus they give me unlimited power.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Good luck but find a better reason for jumping ship.TheScreamingEagles said:
I might be working for George soon.JohnO said:
I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll remind you of that adage.GIN1138 said:BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold
Just another day on PB...
There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
I think.
Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).
Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.
PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.
This was an unsolicited phone call.
She had had no contact with the recruitment agency, ever.0 -
Although 30% in Bavaria would also be a post war low for the CSU - so better... but hardly a cause to crack open the bottles of champagne.HYUFD said:
Yet in Bavaria the CSU are still on nearly 30%, so Soder's party winning Bavaria could mean Bavaria is the only state in Germany the Union wins. This would be very much the CDU and Laschet's defeat as it deserves to beCarlottaVance said:In other polling news:
CDU dropping below 20% for the first time ever in a poll published in postwar Germany
https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1435189981656584194?s=200 -
In other polling news:
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 32% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
REFUK: 4% (-)
via @RedfieldWilton, 06 Sep Chgs. w/ 29 Aug
0 -
The government are going to get mauled in tomorrow’s papers.Stuartinromford said:
OK, it's not unique to this government, but anyone with foresight wouldn't have touched this government with a bargepole.ydoethur said:FPT
Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?CarlottaVance said:The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion
"Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister
Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20
Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.
Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.
It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
Here's the funny thing, though. Until a few hours ago, there was lots of genuine Conservative criticism of this plan as it emerged. And that has melted away like snow on a day like this. I'd want to see tomorrow's Mail, Telegraph and Sun before saying the government are totally out of the woods, but it's amazing really.
And whilst the key principle of the government is that Comrade Johnson is always right, it's striking to see. I can't help thinking of David Low's "They salute with both hands now"...
Guido already has a nice list of think-tank quotes about the changes, none of which are particularly complimentary and all of whom have probably penned opinion pieces this afternoon.
https://order-order.com/2021/09/07/wonks-outraged-by-boriss-tax-hike/0 -
I take back my criticisms of these proposals and Boris Johnson.
1 -
If only I had linked the crosstabs so you could check for yourself how age and partisan alignment measure up.Philip_Thompson said:
Maybe some decent Boomers have thought that snatching even more money from their grandchildren without being asked to contribute themselves isn't a good idea?Chelyabinsk said:Looks like Labour and Lib Dem voters complaining about a policy they supported from a government they dislike.
11th January 2017, "Would you support or oppose increasing the basic rate of employees national insurance from 12% to 13% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS?"
CON: 55% support / 28% oppose (+27)
LAB: 60% support / 22% oppose (+38)
LD: 67% support / 23% oppose (+44)
TOTAL: 53% support / 26% oppose (+27)
20 July 2021, same question:
CON: 64% support / 23% oppose (+41)
LAB: 60% support / 25% oppose (+35)
LD: 68% support / 22% oppose (+46)
TOTAL: 57% support / 25% oppose (+35)
7 September 2021, "The government has announced a rise of 1.25% on National Insurance, which it says will go towards paying for the NHS and social care. Do you support or oppose this rise?"
CON: 59% support / 35% oppose (+24)
LAB: 33% support / 55% oppose (-22)
LD: 50% support / 46% oppose (+4)
TOTAL: 44% support / 43% oppose (+1)
Net change in support, July to September:
65+, -24
LAB, -57
LD, -42
Perhaps the funniest finding might be the 18-24s realising they don't like socialism as much as they thought they did.
January 2017: 44% support / 23% oppose (+21)
July 2021: 42% support / 28% oppose (+14)
September 2021: 26% support / 47% oppose (-21)2 -
Interesting primer on Justin's tribulations.
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/north-america/2021/09/why-justin-trudeau-s-snap-election-backfiring
Although he seems to imply he is dead and buried. "Very slight chance they will fall to 34 seats".
There isn't any chance of that. Whatsoever.0 -
At least some in the Parliamentary Conservative Party have some principles.
The new Health & Social Care Levy provides no new funding for social care for at least 3 years. No money for living costs, only personal care costs. Selling your home is just deferred. It is a tax on jobs. I need much more detail to even consider supporting it.
https://twitter.com/SMcPartland/status/14352817100951552024 -
We also found that if you live in the south of England, where people tend to have higher incomes, you will see less of a hit to your disposable income from the tax rise:
https://twitter.com/Anoosh_C/status/1435286727682314247
Working class Northerners paying for posh rich southerners help give their families big inheritances.0 -
The NS have started with the shape of the graph they wanted, then gone well out of their way to find second-order data that they can make fit.TheScreamingEagles said:I take back my criticisms of these proposals and Boris Johnson.
1 -
There needs to be a concerted effort by BBC, schools & responsible media to provide personal and government finance 101 education to the electorate.2
-
Socialism?Chelyabinsk said:
If only I had linked the crosstabs so you could check for yourself how age and partisan alignment measure up.Philip_Thompson said:
Maybe some decent Boomers have thought that snatching even more money from their grandchildren without being asked to contribute themselves isn't a good idea?Chelyabinsk said:Looks like Labour and Lib Dem voters complaining about a policy they supported from a government they dislike.
11th January 2017, "Would you support or oppose increasing the basic rate of employees national insurance from 12% to 13% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS?"
CON: 55% support / 28% oppose (+27)
LAB: 60% support / 22% oppose (+38)
LD: 67% support / 23% oppose (+44)
TOTAL: 53% support / 26% oppose (+27)
20 July 2021, same question:
CON: 64% support / 23% oppose (+41)
LAB: 60% support / 25% oppose (+35)
LD: 68% support / 22% oppose (+46)
TOTAL: 57% support / 25% oppose (+35)
7 September 2021, "The government has announced a rise of 1.25% on National Insurance, which it says will go towards paying for the NHS and social care. Do you support or oppose this rise?"
CON: 59% support / 35% oppose (+24)
LAB: 33% support / 55% oppose (-22)
LD: 50% support / 46% oppose (+4)
TOTAL: 44% support / 43% oppose (+1)
Net change in support, July to September:
65+, -24
LAB, -57
LD, -42
Perhaps the funniest finding might be the 18-24s realising they don't like socialism as much as they thought they did.
January 2017: 44% support / 23% oppose (+21)
July 2021: 42% support / 28% oppose (+14)
September 2021: 26% support / 47% oppose (-21)
Taxing the hard working poor in society to give the money to the wealthiest in society is Sheriff of Nottingham not Robin Hood.4 -
In what way is raising taxes on workers to protect the inheritances of the wealthy Socialist?Chelyabinsk said:
If only I had linked the crosstabs so you could check for yourself how age and partisan alignment measure up.Philip_Thompson said:
Maybe some decent Boomers have thought that snatching even more money from their grandchildren without being asked to contribute themselves isn't a good idea?Chelyabinsk said:Looks like Labour and Lib Dem voters complaining about a policy they supported from a government they dislike.
11th January 2017, "Would you support or oppose increasing the basic rate of employees national insurance from 12% to 13% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS?"
CON: 55% support / 28% oppose (+27)
LAB: 60% support / 22% oppose (+38)
LD: 67% support / 23% oppose (+44)
TOTAL: 53% support / 26% oppose (+27)
20 July 2021, same question:
CON: 64% support / 23% oppose (+41)
LAB: 60% support / 25% oppose (+35)
LD: 68% support / 22% oppose (+46)
TOTAL: 57% support / 25% oppose (+35)
7 September 2021, "The government has announced a rise of 1.25% on National Insurance, which it says will go towards paying for the NHS and social care. Do you support or oppose this rise?"
CON: 59% support / 35% oppose (+24)
LAB: 33% support / 55% oppose (-22)
LD: 50% support / 46% oppose (+4)
TOTAL: 44% support / 43% oppose (+1)
Net change in support, July to September:
65+, -24
LAB, -57
LD, -42
Perhaps the funniest finding might be the 18-24s realising they don't like socialism as much as they thought they did.
January 2017: 44% support / 23% oppose (+21)
July 2021: 42% support / 28% oppose (+14)
September 2021: 26% support / 47% oppose (-21)
And a massive net transfer from deprived to wealthy regions too.
Just behind Phil I see.2 -
Yes, a percentage of a percentage.Sandpit said:
The NS have started with the shape of the graph they wanted, then gone well out of their way to find second-order data that they can make fit.TheScreamingEagles said:I take back my criticisms of these proposals and Boris Johnson.
2 -
I asked for a kind of bottled water/Pepsi challenge on this yesterday, and here it is - with predictable results. Amazing reallyChelyabinsk said:Looks like Labour and Lib Dem voters complaining about a policy they supported from a government they dislike.
11th January 2017, "Would you support or oppose increasing the basic rate of employees national insurance from 12% to 13% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS?"
CON: 55% support / 28% oppose (+27)
LAB: 60% support / 22% oppose (+38)
LD: 67% support / 23% oppose (+44)
TOTAL: 53% support / 26% oppose (+27)
20 July 2021, same question:
CON: 64% support / 23% oppose (+41)
LAB: 60% support / 25% oppose (+35)
LD: 68% support / 22% oppose (+46)
TOTAL: 57% support / 25% oppose (+35)
7 September 2021, "The government has announced a rise of 1.25% on National Insurance, which it says will go towards paying for the NHS and social care. Do you support or oppose this rise?"
CON: 59% support / 35% oppose (+24)
LAB: 33% support / 55% oppose (-22)
LD: 50% support / 46% oppose (+4)
TOTAL: 44% support / 43% oppose (+1)0 -
Here's a purely personal example of why it's a stupid policy.Sandpit said:
The government are going to get mauled in tomorrow’s papers.Stuartinromford said:
OK, it's not unique to this government, but anyone with foresight wouldn't have touched this government with a bargepole.ydoethur said:FPT
Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?CarlottaVance said:The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion
"Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister
Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20
Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.
Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.
It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
Here's the funny thing, though. Until a few hours ago, there was lots of genuine Conservative criticism of this plan as it emerged. And that has melted away like snow on a day like this. I'd want to see tomorrow's Mail, Telegraph and Sun before saying the government are totally out of the woods, but it's amazing really.
And whilst the key principle of the government is that Comrade Johnson is always right, it's striking to see. I can't help thinking of David Low's "They salute with both hands now"...
Guido already has a nice list of think-tank quotes about the changes, none of which are particularly complimentary and all of whom have probably penned opinion pieces this afternoon.
https://order-order.com/2021/09/07/wonks-outraged-by-boriss-tax-hike/
I have a job, a business and a rental property. The job accounts for about 60% of my income, the business around 25% (somewhat less this year!) and the rental property the remainder.
The rental property, because it's in the hands of a very reliable tenant, isn't a lot of work. I make 3-4 inspection visits a year, arrange for maintenance and repairs (and pay for them, obvs) and do odd bits and pieces of work on it myself.
The business, because I am very proficient in music, I don't need to spend lots of time preparing for it. So, I had a professional engagement in Bristol last Sunday, I spent a grand total of an hour practicing then a couple of hours there - with the drive, six hours work in all. Tutoring, on the rare occasions I do it, does require some more prep and marking but there's lots of crossover with what I teach. For every hour's tutoring, maybe a total of 75 minutes' work.
Teaching - well, that's pretty full on. Maybe 50 hours a week in normal times, 60 when it's busy, perhaps 40 in the summer term when my exam classes are finished, plus holidays.
So here's the bizarre nature of the tax. I'm being taxed still more heavily for the thing I work hardest on. The others will miss all or most of it, even though that's what I put least effort into.
In order to theoretically inherit a few more quid from my dad when he snuffs it - which given how ill he's been recently is not likely to involve a long stay in a care home anyway.
If you punish work in this way, you discourage work. In fact, Johnson is now making a strong financial case for me to give up working or at least substantially reduce my hours to work on other things just as the DfE are making a strong practical one.
It is madness, and while I realise most people are not in my fortunate situation with plenty of other financial irons in the fire or everybody is in the rather less fortunate position of having a sick parent to monitor* is this really the message a sane government would be pushing?
*Most of us go through it at some point of course or tragically, the other way round. But not all of us at the same time.5 -
Agreed. I'm all up for attacking the policy on principles but that's just absurd.Sandpit said:
The NS have started with the shape of the graph they wanted, then gone well out of their way to find second-order data that they can make fit.TheScreamingEagles said:I take back my criticisms of these proposals and Boris Johnson.
0 -
That’s not good at all. Hundreds of ways to spend money I don’t have on things I don’t need..DecrepiterJohnL said:OT there's an ongoing online auction of sporting memorabilia. Some fascinating lots if you are buying presents for someone that way inclined. Trouble is, it's half over.
https://bidlive.grahambuddauctions.co.uk/auctions/7924/srgrah10030 0 -
Worth noting these polls are far more divided than those last week suggesting strong support for a NI increase amongst all age groups.
Conservative voters are very divided on it.0 -
I think it may be because of four things: 1) the 1.25% is to be applied to highest earners, who will end up paying more of the cost, 2) It is to be set up as a new hypothecated levy rather than a straight NI increase, 3) the triple lock has been paused thus avoiding the absurd increase to the oldies and 4) the erstwhile critics twigged that this was going to land reasonably well with the sheeples.Stuartinromford said:
OK, it's not unique to this government, but anyone with foresight wouldn't have touched this government with a bargepole.ydoethur said:FPT
Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?CarlottaVance said:The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion
"Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister
Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20
Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.
Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.
It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
Here's the funny thing, though. Until a few hours ago, there was lots of genuine Conservative criticism of this plan as it emerged. And that has melted away like snow on a day like this. I'd want to see tomorrow's Mail, Telegraph and Sun before saying the government are totally out of the woods, but it's amazing really.
And whilst the key principle of the government is that Comrade Johnson is always right, it's striking to see. I can't help thinking of David Low's "They salute with both hands now"...0 -
The nature of National Insurance is such that it was ever thus. It is essentially a tax on productive work.ydoethur said:
Here's a purely personal example of why it's a stupid policy.Sandpit said:
The government are going to get mauled in tomorrow’s papers.Stuartinromford said:
OK, it's not unique to this government, but anyone with foresight wouldn't have touched this government with a bargepole.ydoethur said:FPT
Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?CarlottaVance said:The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion
"Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister
Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20
Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.
Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.
It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
Here's the funny thing, though. Until a few hours ago, there was lots of genuine Conservative criticism of this plan as it emerged. And that has melted away like snow on a day like this. I'd want to see tomorrow's Mail, Telegraph and Sun before saying the government are totally out of the woods, but it's amazing really.
And whilst the key principle of the government is that Comrade Johnson is always right, it's striking to see. I can't help thinking of David Low's "They salute with both hands now"...
Guido already has a nice list of think-tank quotes about the changes, none of which are particularly complimentary and all of whom have probably penned opinion pieces this afternoon.
https://order-order.com/2021/09/07/wonks-outraged-by-boriss-tax-hike/
I have a job, a business and a rental property. The job accounts for about 60% of my income, the business around 25% (somewhat less this year!) and the rental property the remainder.
The rental property, because it's in the hands of a very reliable tenant, isn't a lot of work. I make 3-4 inspection visits a year, arrange for maintenance and repairs (and pay for them, obvs) and do odd bits and pieces of work on it myself.
The business, because I am very proficient in music, I don't need to spend lots of time preparing for it. So, I had a professional engagement in Bristol last Sunday, I spent a grand total of an hour practicing then a couple of hours there - with the drive, six hours work in all. Tutoring, on the rare occasions I do it, does require some more prep and marking but there's lots of crossover with what I teach. For every hour's tutoring, maybe a total of 75 minutes' work.
Teaching - well, that's pretty full on. Maybe 50 hours a week in normal times, 60 when it's busy, perhaps 40 in the summer term when my exam classes are finished, plus holidays.
So here's the bizarre nature of the tax. I'm being taxed still more heavily for the thing I work hardest on. The others will miss all or most of it, even though that's what I put least effort into.
In order to theoretically inherit a few more quid from my dad when he snuffs it - which given how ill he's been recently is not likely to involve a long stay in a care home anyway.
If you punish work in this way, you discourage work. In fact, Johnson is now making a strong financial case for me to give up working or at least substantially reduce my hours to work on other things just as the DfE are making a strong practical one.
It is madness, and while I realise most people are not in my fortunate situation with plenty of other financial irons in the fire or everybody is in the rather less fortunate position of having a sick parent to monitor* is this really the message a sane government would be pushing?
*Most of us go through it at some point of course or tragically, the other way round. But not all of us at the same time.1 -
While some voters will be aware of the differing consequences of increases in IT vs NICs, I suspect a fair chunk is driven by party preference and if the government had increased IT the responses would have favoured increasing NICs....Chelyabinsk said:Looks like Labour and Lib Dem voters complaining about a policy they supported from a government they dislike.
11th January 2017, "Would you support or oppose increasing the basic rate of employees national insurance from 12% to 13% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS?"
CON: 55% support / 28% oppose (+27)
LAB: 60% support / 22% oppose (+38)
LD: 67% support / 23% oppose (+44)
TOTAL: 53% support / 26% oppose (+27)
20 July 2021, same question:
CON: 64% support / 23% oppose (+41)
LAB: 60% support / 25% oppose (+35)
LD: 68% support / 22% oppose (+46)
TOTAL: 57% support / 25% oppose (+35)
7 September 2021, "The government has announced a rise of 1.25% on National Insurance, which it says will go towards paying for the NHS and social care. Do you support or oppose this rise?"
CON: 59% support / 35% oppose (+24)
LAB: 33% support / 55% oppose (-22)
LD: 50% support / 46% oppose (+4)
TOTAL: 44% support / 43% oppose (+1)1 -
If Conservative voters are divided on it, as evidenced here and elsewhere, then how must Conservative MPs - many of whom campaigned against taxes on jobs - be feeling tonight?Casino_Royale said:Worth noting these polls are far more divided than those last week suggesting strong support for a NI increase amongst all age groups.
Conservative voters are very divided on it.
I’m still expecting resignations, even if only from the junior ministerial ranks.0 -
Indeed. Given the net Party figures, and the age breakdowns, and the age profile of Tory voting, it is difficult to see much of a plurality for it amongst working age Conservatives.Casino_Royale said:Worth noting these polls are far more divided than those last week suggesting strong support for a NI increase amongst all age groups.
Conservative voters are very divided on it.0 -
While looking into the data behind the plot I noticed that there was a lower NI rate for earnings above £967 of 2%. Surely raising that threshold or rate would have been another good way to raise revenue.Philip_Thompson said:
Agreed. I'm all up for attacking the policy on principles but that's just absurd.Sandpit said:
The NS have started with the shape of the graph they wanted, then gone well out of their way to find second-order data that they can make fit.TheScreamingEagles said:I take back my criticisms of these proposals and Boris Johnson.
1 -
I've only dipped in and out today having suffered in the sweat box that is Aberdeen city centre.
My personal highlight was BJO fucking off to join the Tories.6 -
No, but this is a tax rise and as such I think the government will be very pleased with how this has landed.dixiedean said:
Indeed. Given the net Party figures, and the age breakdowns, and the age profile of Tory voting, it is difficult to see much of a plurality for it amongst working age Conservatives.Casino_Royale said:Worth noting these polls are far more divided than those last week suggesting strong support for a NI increase amongst all age groups.
Conservative voters are very divided on it.2 -
Not to mention dark hints of a re-shuffle.Stocky said:
I think it may be because of four things: 1) the 1.25% is to be applied to highest earners, who will end up paying more of the cost, 2) It is to be set up as a new hypothecated levy rather than a straight NI increase, 3) the triple lock has been paused thus avoiding the absurd increase to the oldies and 4) the erstwhile critics twigged that this was going to land reasonably well with the sheeples.Stuartinromford said:
OK, it's not unique to this government, but anyone with foresight wouldn't have touched this government with a bargepole.ydoethur said:FPT
Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?CarlottaVance said:The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion
"Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister
Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20
Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.
Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.
It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
Here's the funny thing, though. Until a few hours ago, there was lots of genuine Conservative criticism of this plan as it emerged. And that has melted away like snow on a day like this. I'd want to see tomorrow's Mail, Telegraph and Sun before saying the government are totally out of the woods, but it's amazing really.
And whilst the key principle of the government is that Comrade Johnson is always right, it's striking to see. I can't help thinking of David Low's "They salute with both hands now"...
Even the thickest, most unsuitable can see themselves in the back of a chauffeur driven car.0 -
I think they'll grumble but mainly go along with it.Sandpit said:
If Conservative voters are divided on it, as evidenced here and elsewhere, then how must Conservative MPs - many of whom campaigned against taxes on jobs - be feeling tonight?Casino_Royale said:Worth noting these polls are far more divided than those last week suggesting strong support for a NI increase amongst all age groups.
Conservative voters are very divided on it.
I’m still expecting resignations, even if only from the junior ministerial ranks.0 -
You appear to be missing that in Bavaria they got 39% last timeHYUFD said:
Yet in Bavaria the CSU are still on nearly 30%, so Soder's party winning Bavaria could mean Bavaria is the only state in Germany the Union wins. This would be very much the CDU and Laschet's defeat as it deserves to beCarlottaVance said:In other polling news:
CDU dropping below 20% for the first time ever in a poll published in postwar Germany
https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1435189981656584194?s=200 -
Which is why it's a stupid tax.darkage said:
The nature of National Insurance is such that it was ever thus. It is essentially a tax on productive work.ydoethur said:
Here's a purely personal example of why it's a stupid policy.Sandpit said:
The government are going to get mauled in tomorrow’s papers.Stuartinromford said:
OK, it's not unique to this government, but anyone with foresight wouldn't have touched this government with a bargepole.ydoethur said:FPT
Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?CarlottaVance said:The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion
"Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister
Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20
Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.
Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.
It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
Here's the funny thing, though. Until a few hours ago, there was lots of genuine Conservative criticism of this plan as it emerged. And that has melted away like snow on a day like this. I'd want to see tomorrow's Mail, Telegraph and Sun before saying the government are totally out of the woods, but it's amazing really.
And whilst the key principle of the government is that Comrade Johnson is always right, it's striking to see. I can't help thinking of David Low's "They salute with both hands now"...
Guido already has a nice list of think-tank quotes about the changes, none of which are particularly complimentary and all of whom have probably penned opinion pieces this afternoon.
https://order-order.com/2021/09/07/wonks-outraged-by-boriss-tax-hike/
I have a job, a business and a rental property. The job accounts for about 60% of my income, the business around 25% (somewhat less this year!) and the rental property the remainder.
The rental property, because it's in the hands of a very reliable tenant, isn't a lot of work. I make 3-4 inspection visits a year, arrange for maintenance and repairs (and pay for them, obvs) and do odd bits and pieces of work on it myself.
The business, because I am very proficient in music, I don't need to spend lots of time preparing for it. So, I had a professional engagement in Bristol last Sunday, I spent a grand total of an hour practicing then a couple of hours there - with the drive, six hours work in all. Tutoring, on the rare occasions I do it, does require some more prep and marking but there's lots of crossover with what I teach. For every hour's tutoring, maybe a total of 75 minutes' work.
Teaching - well, that's pretty full on. Maybe 50 hours a week in normal times, 60 when it's busy, perhaps 40 in the summer term when my exam classes are finished, plus holidays.
So here's the bizarre nature of the tax. I'm being taxed still more heavily for the thing I work hardest on. The others will miss all or most of it, even though that's what I put least effort into.
In order to theoretically inherit a few more quid from my dad when he snuffs it - which given how ill he's been recently is not likely to involve a long stay in a care home anyway.
If you punish work in this way, you discourage work. In fact, Johnson is now making a strong financial case for me to give up working or at least substantially reduce my hours to work on other things just as the DfE are making a strong practical one.
It is madness, and while I realise most people are not in my fortunate situation with plenty of other financial irons in the fire or everybody is in the rather less fortunate position of having a sick parent to monitor* is this really the message a sane government would be pushing?
*Most of us go through it at some point of course or tragically, the other way round. But not all of us at the same time.
It had some reason in the first 40 years of its existence, when it was genuinely used to fund sick pay and health care in a government backed scheme. But when PAYE and then the NHS was brought in in the 1940s it shoudl have been scrapped then.6 -
Yep. They should have used the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to abolish NI and roll it into income tax, at least on the employee side. Instead, they’ve made payroll taxes more complicated - great for accountants and tax lawyers, not so for small businesses.ydoethur said:
Which is why it's a stupid tax.darkage said:
The nature of National Insurance is such that it was ever thus. It is essentially a tax on productive work.ydoethur said:
Here's a purely personal example of why it's a stupid policy.Sandpit said:
The government are going to get mauled in tomorrow’s papers.Stuartinromford said:
OK, it's not unique to this government, but anyone with foresight wouldn't have touched this government with a bargepole.ydoethur said:FPT
Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?CarlottaVance said:The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion
"Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister
Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20
Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.
Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.
It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
Here's the funny thing, though. Until a few hours ago, there was lots of genuine Conservative criticism of this plan as it emerged. And that has melted away like snow on a day like this. I'd want to see tomorrow's Mail, Telegraph and Sun before saying the government are totally out of the woods, but it's amazing really.
And whilst the key principle of the government is that Comrade Johnson is always right, it's striking to see. I can't help thinking of David Low's "They salute with both hands now"...
Guido already has a nice list of think-tank quotes about the changes, none of which are particularly complimentary and all of whom have probably penned opinion pieces this afternoon.
https://order-order.com/2021/09/07/wonks-outraged-by-boriss-tax-hike/
I have a job, a business and a rental property. The job accounts for about 60% of my income, the business around 25% (somewhat less this year!) and the rental property the remainder.
The rental property, because it's in the hands of a very reliable tenant, isn't a lot of work. I make 3-4 inspection visits a year, arrange for maintenance and repairs (and pay for them, obvs) and do odd bits and pieces of work on it myself.
The business, because I am very proficient in music, I don't need to spend lots of time preparing for it. So, I had a professional engagement in Bristol last Sunday, I spent a grand total of an hour practicing then a couple of hours there - with the drive, six hours work in all. Tutoring, on the rare occasions I do it, does require some more prep and marking but there's lots of crossover with what I teach. For every hour's tutoring, maybe a total of 75 minutes' work.
Teaching - well, that's pretty full on. Maybe 50 hours a week in normal times, 60 when it's busy, perhaps 40 in the summer term when my exam classes are finished, plus holidays.
So here's the bizarre nature of the tax. I'm being taxed still more heavily for the thing I work hardest on. The others will miss all or most of it, even though that's what I put least effort into.
In order to theoretically inherit a few more quid from my dad when he snuffs it - which given how ill he's been recently is not likely to involve a long stay in a care home anyway.
If you punish work in this way, you discourage work. In fact, Johnson is now making a strong financial case for me to give up working or at least substantially reduce my hours to work on other things just as the DfE are making a strong practical one.
It is madness, and while I realise most people are not in my fortunate situation with plenty of other financial irons in the fire or everybody is in the rather less fortunate position of having a sick parent to monitor* is this really the message a sane government would be pushing?
*Most of us go through it at some point of course or tragically, the other way round. But not all of us at the same time.
It had some reason in the first 40 years of its existence, when it was genuinely used to fund sick pay and health care in a government backed scheme. But when PAYE and then the NHS was brought in in the 1940s it shoudl have been scrapped then.4 -
What I don't understand about this whole fandango is how perilously thin the government's excuse is. "Covid wasn't on the manifesto either" backed with "we have to put taxes up its the only responsible way".
What is missing?
That the money isn't going to social care either
That the money is to close the funding crisis which was already there before Covid despite the £350m a week won back from UVDL
That the money announced doesn't fund social care
That they had no way to pay for social care without this even without Covid
That its a tax on jobs to protect Tory-voting pensioners
That waiting times are going to go up anyway
But as @bigjohnowls has fucked off to join the Tories like his trot mate Bastani I suppose the PM can claim some kind of victory. The trots always want the Tories to win, its how they find things to complain about in that smug self-righteousway they have about them.4 -
There was also a poll last week with CDU/CSU on 19.5. Also, if we are really talking about the CDU, there were a couple of polls in early November 2019 that had CDU on 19.5% as well as a couple of polls in late 2018 which had them on 19%.rcs1000 said:
Although 30% in Bavaria would also be a post war low for the CSU - so better... but hardly a cause to crack open the bottles of champagne.HYUFD said:
Yet in Bavaria the CSU are still on nearly 30%, so Soder's party winning Bavaria could mean Bavaria is the only state in Germany the Union wins. This would be very much the CDU and Laschet's defeat as it deserves to beCarlottaVance said:In other polling news:
CDU dropping below 20% for the first time ever in a poll published in postwar Germany
https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1435189981656584194?s=20
In fact the latest Bavarian poll has the CSU doing 10% worse than in 2017, so not much better than the fall in CDU vote share in the rest of Germany.0 -
Looking at the reactions quoted above, I'm seeing a lot of carefully targeted barrel-scraping in what the different groups are attacking, and some very carefully tuned uses of % vs financial amounts.
What we need now is the start of some form of wealth tax in November, which I would expect to include a rapid change to CGT, and perhaps some reform to Council Tax. It is a good time to begin some major changes.
They won't address the huge CGT exemption on main dwellings loophole; not bold enough.0
