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2 polls on the day the govt taxed workers more & gave pensioners an increase – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 7 in General
2 polls on the day the govt taxed workers more & gave pensioners an increase – politicalbetting.com

SNAP POLL: Britons are split 44% to 43% on raising National Insurance by 1.25pts to pay for NHS and social careAll Brits – 44% support / 43% opposeCon voters – 59% / 34%Lab voters – 33% / 55%18-24 yr olds – 26% / 47%65+ yr olds – 68% / 23%https://t.co/4ZxN7IzdmX pic.twitter.com/g7ybZdmPbH

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Comments

  • Test
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629

    Test

    Edge
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,334
    "It's so unfair."
  • Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    So as we thought, those working hate this and those who don't, love it.

    A class politics BoJo - now the young should come and vote this lot out

    I'm retired and I hate it. So does @kinabalu, so that's 2 of us.
    I've not often said this but you are one of my favourite posters, a straight shooter.
    I'm retired and I agree with Ishmael and Kinabalu.
    You already know I rate your posts!

    And so does Kinabalu
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,484
    I'm not old enough to remember how the poll tax situation developed. Was that a slow burn that then exploded? What was the trigger? As much as I think this policy is immoral and wrong (albeit in the long run one that probably benefits me financially), it's hard to see a quartet of Philip, Casino, Max and Moonshine, with an army of angry 18-24 year olds at our backs, causing the downfall of the government.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 3,816
    So Labour voters want to cut funding to the NHS? The poll is a gift to the Tories.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.

    However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,066
    So, apart from being announced mid term not mid election, how exactly does Boris plan differ from May’s?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 16,895
    A lot of those findings mirror the political preference of the voter age group (the younger you are, the more critical you are of government policy), but the scrapping of the triple lock gets a remarkable raspberry from the elderly.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,105

    GIN1138 said:

    BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold

    Just another day on PB...

    I'll remind you of that adage.

    There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
    :D
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,692
    I suspect there will be a grim NHS winter this year and that is in part driving this move. It was already collapsing at the seams before Covid, but was somewhat disguised by the pandemic. Now there is an overhang. The Tory government will want to get out ahead of the bad news
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,147
    Weibo, China's heavily censored version of Twitter, announced it has suspended 21 fan accounts dedicated to various K-pop artists due to "irrational star-chasing behavior."

    https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1434919585841664005
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    GIN1138 said:

    BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold

    Just another day on PB...

    PB is very unusual. Look at the region figures:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/07/fb53b/2

    The general public really don't understand how the current system works and who the changes benefit. Jon Trickett brought up the big difference in house prices, but Starmer didn't go there. And unless he brings it up, the media won't be interested.

    Instead, the Labour front bench and the media are busy talking about broken manifesto promises.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    I was asking on FPT what the provlems with devolved income tax were - this is one reply, at least for Scotland (presumably similar also for Wales).

    https://fraserofallander.org/funding-a-rise-in-social-care-spending-england-implications-for-the-scottish-budget/

    "We are used to hearing that the devolution settlement is constraining the policy choices of the Scottish Government. The notion that the devolution settlement might potentially constrain the UK Government’s policy choices comes as something of a surprise.

    Whether or not these issues are significant enough to justify a potential UK Government decision to fund an increase in social care spending increase via NICs rather than IT is debateable. And to be fair, it is clear that other considerations, beyond the thorny mechanics of the devolved fiscal framework, have influenced the UK Government’s apparent preference for relying on NICs.

    But it is also clear that there are material issues here which the UK Government might be concerned about. These are likely to feature heavily in the upcoming review of the fiscal framework."
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,066
    HYUFD said:

    So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.

    However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote

    How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?

    What is significantly different with this one?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963
    gealbhan said:

    So, apart from being announced mid term not mid election, how exactly does Boris plan differ from May’s?

    Someone who can sell a plan compared to someone who can't?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,634
    Poll results:

    The majority of people vote with their wallet.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    gealbhan said:

    So, apart from being announced mid term not mid election, how exactly does Boris plan differ from May’s?

    Someone who can sell a plan compared to someone who can't?
    In that case, what is the difference between this plan and double glazing? Is it any better than a sealed unit in brown uPVC in resolving the social care crisis?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    So as we thought, those working hate this and those who don't, love it.

    A class politics BoJo - now the young should come and vote this lot out

    I'm retired and I hate it. So does @kinabalu, so that's 2 of us.
    I've not often said this but you are one of my favourite posters, a straight shooter.
    I'm retired and I agree with Ishmael and Kinabalu.
    You already know I rate your posts!

    And so does Kinabalu
    Awww.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 556

    A lot of those findings mirror the political preference of the voter age group (the younger you are, the more critical you are of government policy), but the scrapping of the triple lock gets a remarkable raspberry from the elderly.

    "BUT WE PAID OUR TAXES!!!!"

    If this doesn't start to generate Labour poll leads then you have to wonder what will.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,838
    Boris has played a blinder here. I'll wager that most of the fervid anti-Taxers are also those who voted Brexit. So while some will feel betrayed by Boris a larger amount will stay loyal because of the unsurpassable gift of Brexit that he has bestowed upon them. Amongst everyone else there will be a feeling of indifference or perhaps even grudging support. It's better to enrage some of your friends than upset all your acquaintances.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,828

    GIN1138 said:

    BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold

    Just another day on PB...

    I'll remind you of that adage.

    There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
    I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 556

    Poll results:

    The majority of people vote with their wallet.

    Also: the majority of people want to spend the contents of other people's wallets on themselves.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,828
    Test
  • pigeon said:

    Poll results:

    The majority of people vote with their wallet.

    Also: the majority of people want to spend the contents of other people's wallets on themselves.
    So much for people caring about their kids/grandkids generation too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    edited September 7
    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.

    However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote

    How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?

    What is significantly different with this one?
    It does not affect over 45s too much ie the Tory core vote, though as I said the triple lock must be kept and only suspended for a year.

    May's proposal affected anyone with property over £100,000 who would have lost it all if they needed at home social care as would their children and grandchildren. Today's proposal also caps the assets you have to spend on social care at no more than £86,000
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999
    edited September 7
    JohnO said:

    GIN1138 said:

    BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold

    Just another day on PB...

    I'll remind you of that adage.

    There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
    I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.
    I might be working for George soon.

    I think.

    Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).

    Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.

    PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.
  • HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.

    However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote

    How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?

    What is significantly different with this one?
    It does not affect over 45s too much ie the Tory core vote, though as I said the triple lock must be kept and only suspended for a year.

    May's proposal affected anyone with property over £100,000 who would have lost it all if they needed at home social care as would their children and grandchildren. Today's proposal also caps the assets you have to spend on social care at no more than £80,000
    If your house price is £180,000 then what's the difference?

    Apart from higher taxes for workers now?
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,213
    Just had a text message from my GP. "Due to unforeseen road freight challenges" my flu jab is postponed.
  • Sainsbury's sitrep noon today
    Masks around 80 per cent so last week's drop has not continued.
    Gaps on shelves including bottled water and bin liners, as well as Covid tests!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    edited September 7

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.

    However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote

    How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?

    What is significantly different with this one?
    It does not affect over 45s too much ie the Tory core vote, though as I said the triple lock must be kept and only suspended for a year.

    May's proposal affected anyone with property over £100,000 who would have lost it all if they needed at home social care as would their children and grandchildren. Today's proposal also caps the assets you have to spend on social care at no more than £80,000
    If your house price is £180,000 then what's the difference?

    Apart from higher taxes for workers now?
    The median house price for England is £259,000 ie above that, so the average homeowner and their family would not lose most of the value of their home in care costs down to their last £100,000. Under May's plan they would.
    https://lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/lgastandard?mod-metric=5230&mod-area=E92000001&mod-group=AllRegions_England&mod-type=namedComparisonGroup
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629

    JohnO said:

    GIN1138 said:

    BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold

    Just another day on PB...

    I'll remind you of that adage.

    There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
    I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.
    I might be working for George soon.

    I think.

    Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).

    Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.

    PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.
    Good luck TSE
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852

    JohnO said:

    GIN1138 said:

    BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold

    Just another day on PB...

    I'll remind you of that adage.

    There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
    I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.
    I might be working for George soon.

    I think.

    Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).

    Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.

    PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.
    That would be the famously discreet Robey Warshaw?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    In other polling news:

    CDU dropping below 20% for the first time ever in a poll published in postwar Germany

    https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1435189981656584194?s=20
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469

    JohnO said:

    GIN1138 said:

    BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold

    Just another day on PB...

    I'll remind you of that adage.

    There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
    I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.
    I might be working for George soon.

    I think.

    Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).

    Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.

    PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.
    It was a tax on jobs when Labour were proposing it, and it’s still a tax on jobs when Tories are proposing it.

    Good luck with the headhunter.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    JohnO said:

    GIN1138 said:

    BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold

    Just another day on PB...

    I'll remind you of that adage.

    There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
    I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.
    I might be working for George soon.

    I think.

    Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).

    Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.

    PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.
    That would be the famously discreet Robey Warshaw?
    My claim to fame is that once I attended a lunch hosted by Robey Warshaw and ended up on the same table as Lady Robey.

    Anyhoo I just know this job will in fact be Deutsche.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889

    In other polling news:

    CDU dropping below 20% for the first time ever in a poll published in postwar Germany

    https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1435189981656584194?s=20

    Yet in Bavaria the CSU are still on nearly 30%, so Soder's party winning Bavaria could mean Bavaria is the only state in Germany the Union wins. This would be very much the CDU and Laschet's defeat as it deserves to be
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    Would like to see the figures for working age Tory voters.
    The pensioners are, by and large, fully bought off.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,105
    slade said:

    Just had a text message from my GP. "Due to unforeseen road freight challenges" my flu jab is postponed.

    I'd rather have it late October or November anyway.

    Always think that if you have it in September the effects are probably starting to wane by February/March...
  • OT there's an ongoing online auction of sporting memorabilia. Some fascinating lots if you are buying presents for someone that way inclined. Trouble is, it's half over.
    https://bidlive.grahambuddauctions.co.uk/auctions/7924/srgrah10030
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.

    However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote

    How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?

    What is significantly different with this one?
    It does not affect over 45s too much ie the Tory core vote, though as I said the triple lock must be kept and only suspended for a year.

    May's proposal affected anyone with property over £100,000 who would have lost it all if they needed at home social care as would their children and grandchildren. Today's proposal also caps the assets you have to spend on social care at no more than £80,000
    If your house price is £180,000 then what's the difference?

    Apart from higher taxes for workers now?
    The median house price for England is £259,000 ie above that, so the average homeowner and their family would not lose most of the value of their home in care costs down to their last £100,000. Under May's plan they would
    https://lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/lgastandard?mod-metric=5230&mod-area=E92000001&mod-group=AllRegions_England&mod-type=namedComparisonGroup
    Again with averages?

    So what you're saying is that wealthy Southerners will keep more of their unearned inheritance, while Red Wall voters will get tax rises to pay for that but no benefit?

    Bishop Auckland median house price £120,000
    Hartlepool median house price £128,500
    Leigh median house price £158,500

    Indeed its not just the Red Wall, the median house price in the North West and the North East are both less than £180k.

    So "levelling up" is giving us tax rises and you an inheritance? 🤔
  • JohnO said:

    GIN1138 said:

    BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold

    Just another day on PB...

    I'll remind you of that adage.

    There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
    I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.
    I might be working for George soon.

    I think.

    Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).

    Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.

    PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.
    Good luck but find a better reason for jumping ship.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.

    However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote

    How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?

    What is significantly different with this one?
    It does not affect over 45s too much ie the Tory core vote, though as I said the triple lock must be kept and only suspended for a year.

    May's proposal affected anyone with property over £100,000 who would have lost it all if they needed at home social care as would their children and grandchildren. Today's proposal also caps the assets you have to spend on social care at no more than £80,000
    If your house price is £180,000 then what's the difference?

    Apart from higher taxes for workers now?
    The median house price for England is £259,000 ie above that, so the average homeowner and their family would not lose most of the value of their home in care costs down to their last £100,000. Under May's plan they would
    https://lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/lgastandard?mod-metric=5230&mod-area=E92000001&mod-group=AllRegions_England&mod-type=namedComparisonGroup
    Again with averages?

    So what you're saying is that wealthy Southerners will keep more of their unearned inheritance, while Red Wall voters will get tax rises to pay for that but no benefit?

    Bishop Auckland median house price £120,000
    Hartlepool median house price £128,500
    Leigh median house price £158,500

    Indeed its not just the Red Wall, the median house price in the North West and the North East are both less than £180k.

    So "levelling up" is giving us tax rises and you an inheritance? 🤔
    Yep.
    It's the traditional Tory way.
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629
    pigeon said:

    A lot of those findings mirror the political preference of the voter age group (the younger you are, the more critical you are of government policy), but the scrapping of the triple lock gets a remarkable raspberry from the elderly.

    "BUT WE PAID OUR TAXES!!!!"

    If this doesn't start to generate Labour poll leads then you have to wonder what will.
    I’m pretty confident CHBs bet on a labour poll lead will pay out.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 339
    edited September 7
    Looks like Labour and Lib Dem voters complaining about a policy they supported from a government they dislike.

    11th January 2017, "Would you support or oppose increasing the basic rate of employees national insurance from 12% to 13% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS?"

    CON: 55% support / 28% oppose (+27)
    LAB: 60% support / 22% oppose (+38)
    LD: 67% support / 23% oppose (+44)
    TOTAL: 53% support / 26% oppose (+27)

    20 July 2021, same question:

    CON: 64% support / 23% oppose (+41)
    LAB: 60% support / 25% oppose (+35)
    LD: 68% support / 22% oppose (+46)
    TOTAL: 57% support / 25% oppose (+35)

    7 September 2021, "The government has announced a rise of 1.25% on National Insurance, which it says will go towards paying for the NHS and social care. Do you support or oppose this rise?"

    CON: 59% support / 35% oppose (+24)
    LAB: 33% support / 55% oppose (-22)
    LD: 50% support / 46% oppose (+4)
    TOTAL: 44% support / 43% oppose (+1)
  • JohnO said:

    GIN1138 said:

    BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold

    Just another day on PB...

    I'll remind you of that adage.

    There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
    I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.
    I might be working for George soon.

    I think.

    Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).

    Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.

    PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.
    Good luck but find a better reason for jumping ship.
    I'm happy where I am, they love me and allow me to be pretty autonomous. Plus they give me unlimited power.

    This was an unsolicited phone call.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    edited September 7

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.

    However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote

    How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?

    What is significantly different with this one?
    It does not affect over 45s too much ie the Tory core vote, though as I said the triple lock must be kept and only suspended for a year.

    May's proposal affected anyone with property over £100,000 who would have lost it all if they needed at home social care as would their children and grandchildren. Today's proposal also caps the assets you have to spend on social care at no more than £80,000
    If your house price is £180,000 then what's the difference?

    Apart from higher taxes for workers now?
    The median house price for England is £259,000 ie above that, so the average homeowner and their family would not lose most of the value of their home in care costs down to their last £100,000. Under May's plan they would
    https://lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/lgastandard?mod-metric=5230&mod-area=E92000001&mod-group=AllRegions_England&mod-type=namedComparisonGroup
    Again with averages?

    So what you're saying is that wealthy Southerners will keep more of their unearned inheritance, while Red Wall voters will get tax rises to pay for that but no benefit?

    Bishop Auckland median house price £120,000
    Hartlepool median house price £128,500
    Leigh median house price £158,500

    Indeed its not just the Red Wall, the median house price in the North West and the North East are both less than £180k.

    So "levelling up" is giving us tax rises and you an inheritance? 🤔
    Most RedWall voters can afford to buy their own property on an average income unlike those south of Watford.

    Though under this plan even in the Red Wall those needing social care with house values over £100,000 ie most of them would still get to keep some of the value given the £86,000 cap and there would then be state help for those with assets from £20,000-£100,000.

    Red Wall voters earn less so in absolute terms pay less NI too
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 59% of Tory voters still support the 1.2% NI rise to pay for social care and the NHS post Covid as do voters by 44% to 43% overall.

    However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote

    How many times did you tell us you couldn’t sell May’s social care plan on the doorstep?

    What is significantly different with this one?
    It does not affect over 45s too much ie the Tory core vote, though as I said the triple lock must be kept and only suspended for a year.

    May's proposal affected anyone with property over £100,000 who would have lost it all if they needed at home social care as would their children and grandchildren. Today's proposal also caps the assets you have to spend on social care at no more than £80,000
    If your house price is £180,000 then what's the difference?

    Apart from higher taxes for workers now?
    The median house price for England is £259,000 ie above that, so the average homeowner and their family would not lose most of the value of their home in care costs down to their last £100,000. Under May's plan they would
    https://lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/lgastandard?mod-metric=5230&mod-area=E92000001&mod-group=AllRegions_England&mod-type=namedComparisonGroup
    Again with averages?

    So what you're saying is that wealthy Southerners will keep more of their unearned inheritance, while Red Wall voters will get tax rises to pay for that but no benefit?

    Bishop Auckland median house price £120,000
    Hartlepool median house price £128,500
    Leigh median house price £158,500

    Indeed its not just the Red Wall, the median house price in the North West and the North East are both less than £180k.

    So "levelling up" is giving us tax rises and you an inheritance? 🤔
    Fair's fair. At least he's started with median today.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 556
    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion

    "Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister

    Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"


    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20

    Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?

    Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.

    Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.

    It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
    Of course, now that what's effectively a brand new tax - dedicated, crucially and for the very first time, to Our Beloved NHS - has been created, it probably won't stay at 1.25% for very long...
  • Looks like Labour and Lib Dem voters complaining about a policy they supported from a government they dislike.

    11th January 2017, "Would you support or oppose increasing the basic rate of employees national insurance from 12% to 13% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS?"

    CON: 55% support /28% oppose (+27)
    LAB: 60% support /22% oppose (+38)
    LD: 67% support / 23% oppose (+44)
    TOTAL: 53% support / 26% oppose (+27)

    20 July 2021, same question:

    CON: 64% support / 23% oppose (+41)
    LAB: 60% support / 25% oppose (+35)
    LD: 68% support / 22% oppose (+46)
    TOTAL: 57% support / 25% oppose (+35)

    7 September 2021, "The government has announced a rise of 1.25% on National Insurance, which it says will go towards paying for the NHS and social care. Do you support or oppose this rise?"

    CON: 59% support / 35% oppose (+24)
    LAB: 33% support / 55% oppose (-22)
    LD: 50% support / 46% oppose (+4)
    TOTAL: 44% support / 43% oppose (+1)

    Possibly.

    Or possibly people answering the question in January didn't realise that pensioners, landlords etc don't pay NI so it's just a tax on them and not a fair tax paid by everyone. And now that's being shared people realise they're getting screwed?

    Maybe some decent Boomers have thought that snatching even more money from their grandchildren without being asked to contribute themselves isn't a good idea? Maybe there's some grandparents who don't only think about themselves and actually care for their grandkids?

    Unlikely I know but possible.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    UK local R

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  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,499
    edited September 7

    A lot of those findings mirror the political preference of the voter age group (the younger you are, the more critical you are of government policy), but the scrapping of the triple lock gets a remarkable raspberry from the elderly.

    I don 't think the triple lock has been scrapped has it (regrettably)? I thought it is to be changed to a double lock for this year only to avoid the ridiculous uplift?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    UK cases summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    UK hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    UK deaths

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    Stocky said:

    A lot of those findings mirror the political preference of the voter age group (the younger you are, the more critical you are of government policy), but the scrapping of the triple lock gets a remarkable raspberry from the elderly.

    I don 't think the triple lock has been scrapped has it (regrettably)? I thought it is to be changed to a double lock for this year only to avoid the ridiculous uplift?
    The poll question seems to conform to that temporal restriction - "scrapped this year".
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    Age related data

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,006

    Weibo, China's heavily censored version of Twitter, announced it has suspended 21 fan accounts dedicated to various K-pop artists due to "irrational star-chasing behavior."

    https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1434919585841664005

    OGH better hope that Twitter doesn't similarly crack down on teen icons.
  • ydoethur said:

    FPT

    The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion

    "Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister

    Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"


    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20

    Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?

    Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.

    Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.

    It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
    OK, it's not unique to this government, but anyone with foresight wouldn't have touched this government with a bargepole.

    Here's the funny thing, though. Until a few hours ago, there was lots of genuine Conservative criticism of this plan as it emerged. And that has melted away like snow on a day like this. I'd want to see tomorrow's Mail, Telegraph and Sun before saying the government are totally out of the woods, but it's amazing really.

    And whilst the key principle of the government is that Comrade Johnson is always right, it's striking to see. I can't help thinking of David Low's "They salute with both hands now"...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    Age related data scaled to 100K

    image
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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 25,429

    JohnO said:

    GIN1138 said:

    BJO comes out as a Boris fan while Philip, Max and CR leave the "Blue" fold

    Just another day on PB...

    I'll remind you of that adage.

    There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
    I see George Osborne has tweeted support for the measures. We'll have you back soon.
    I might be working for George soon.

    I think.

    Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).

    Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.

    PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.
    Good luck but find a better reason for jumping ship.
    I'm happy where I am, they love me and allow me to be pretty autonomous. Plus they give me unlimited power.

    This was an unsolicited phone call.
    An acquaintance once got a cold-call recruitment call from an agency. It turned out it was for a job in the company she was working for. In her department...

    She had had no contact with the recruitment agency, ever.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,006
    HYUFD said:

    In other polling news:

    CDU dropping below 20% for the first time ever in a poll published in postwar Germany

    https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1435189981656584194?s=20

    Yet in Bavaria the CSU are still on nearly 30%, so Soder's party winning Bavaria could mean Bavaria is the only state in Germany the Union wins. This would be very much the CDU and Laschet's defeat as it deserves to be
    Although 30% in Bavaria would also be a post war low for the CSU - so better... but hardly a cause to crack open the bottles of champagne.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    In other polling news:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 41% (-)
    LAB: 32% (-1)
    LDEM: 11% (+2)
    GRN: 6% (+1)
    REFUK: 4% (-)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 06 Sep Chgs. w/ 29 Aug


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion

    "Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister

    Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"


    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20

    Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?

    Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.

    Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.

    It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
    OK, it's not unique to this government, but anyone with foresight wouldn't have touched this government with a bargepole.

    Here's the funny thing, though. Until a few hours ago, there was lots of genuine Conservative criticism of this plan as it emerged. And that has melted away like snow on a day like this. I'd want to see tomorrow's Mail, Telegraph and Sun before saying the government are totally out of the woods, but it's amazing really.

    And whilst the key principle of the government is that Comrade Johnson is always right, it's striking to see. I can't help thinking of David Low's "They salute with both hands now"...
    The government are going to get mauled in tomorrow’s papers.

    Guido already has a nice list of think-tank quotes about the changes, none of which are particularly complimentary and all of whom have probably penned opinion pieces this afternoon.
    https://order-order.com/2021/09/07/wonks-outraged-by-boriss-tax-hike/
  • I take back my criticisms of these proposals and Boris Johnson.


  • Looks like Labour and Lib Dem voters complaining about a policy they supported from a government they dislike.

    11th January 2017, "Would you support or oppose increasing the basic rate of employees national insurance from 12% to 13% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS?"

    CON: 55% support / 28% oppose (+27)
    LAB: 60% support / 22% oppose (+38)
    LD: 67% support / 23% oppose (+44)
    TOTAL: 53% support / 26% oppose (+27)

    20 July 2021, same question:

    CON: 64% support / 23% oppose (+41)
    LAB: 60% support / 25% oppose (+35)
    LD: 68% support / 22% oppose (+46)
    TOTAL: 57% support / 25% oppose (+35)

    7 September 2021, "The government has announced a rise of 1.25% on National Insurance, which it says will go towards paying for the NHS and social care. Do you support or oppose this rise?"

    CON: 59% support / 35% oppose (+24)
    LAB: 33% support / 55% oppose (-22)
    LD: 50% support / 46% oppose (+4)
    TOTAL: 44% support / 43% oppose (+1)

    Maybe some decent Boomers have thought that snatching even more money from their grandchildren without being asked to contribute themselves isn't a good idea?
    If only I had linked the crosstabs so you could check for yourself how age and partisan alignment measure up.

    Net change in support, July to September:
    65+, -24
    LAB, -57
    LD, -42

    Perhaps the funniest finding might be the 18-24s realising they don't like socialism as much as they thought they did.

    January 2017: 44% support / 23% oppose (+21)
    July 2021: 42% support / 28% oppose (+14)
    September 2021: 26% support / 47% oppose (-21)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    edited September 7
    Interesting primer on Justin's tribulations.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/world/north-america/2021/09/why-justin-trudeau-s-snap-election-backfiring

    Although he seems to imply he is dead and buried. "Very slight chance they will fall to 34 seats".
    There isn't any chance of that. Whatsoever.
  • At least some in the Parliamentary Conservative Party have some principles.

    The new Health & Social Care Levy provides no new funding for social care for at least 3 years. No money for living costs, only personal care costs. Selling your home is just deferred. It is a tax on jobs. I need much more detail to even consider supporting it.

    https://twitter.com/SMcPartland/status/1435281710095155202
  • We also found that if you live in the south of England, where people tend to have higher incomes, you will see less of a hit to your disposable income from the tax rise:

    https://twitter.com/Anoosh_C/status/1435286727682314247

    Working class Northerners paying for posh rich southerners help give their families big inheritances.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469

    I take back my criticisms of these proposals and Boris Johnson.


    The NS have started with the shape of the graph they wanted, then gone well out of their way to find second-order data that they can make fit.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,022
    There needs to be a concerted effort by BBC, schools & responsible media to provide personal and government finance 101 education to the electorate.
  • Looks like Labour and Lib Dem voters complaining about a policy they supported from a government they dislike.

    11th January 2017, "Would you support or oppose increasing the basic rate of employees national insurance from 12% to 13% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS?"

    CON: 55% support / 28% oppose (+27)
    LAB: 60% support / 22% oppose (+38)
    LD: 67% support / 23% oppose (+44)
    TOTAL: 53% support / 26% oppose (+27)

    20 July 2021, same question:

    CON: 64% support / 23% oppose (+41)
    LAB: 60% support / 25% oppose (+35)
    LD: 68% support / 22% oppose (+46)
    TOTAL: 57% support / 25% oppose (+35)

    7 September 2021, "The government has announced a rise of 1.25% on National Insurance, which it says will go towards paying for the NHS and social care. Do you support or oppose this rise?"

    CON: 59% support / 35% oppose (+24)
    LAB: 33% support / 55% oppose (-22)
    LD: 50% support / 46% oppose (+4)
    TOTAL: 44% support / 43% oppose (+1)

    Maybe some decent Boomers have thought that snatching even more money from their grandchildren without being asked to contribute themselves isn't a good idea?
    If only I had linked the crosstabs so you could check for yourself how age and partisan alignment measure up.

    Net change in support, July to September:
    65+, -24
    LAB, -57
    LD, -42

    Perhaps the funniest finding might be the 18-24s realising they don't like socialism as much as they thought they did.

    January 2017: 44% support / 23% oppose (+21)
    July 2021: 42% support / 28% oppose (+14)
    September 2021: 26% support / 47% oppose (-21)
    Socialism?

    Taxing the hard working poor in society to give the money to the wealthiest in society is Sheriff of Nottingham not Robin Hood.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    edited September 7

    Looks like Labour and Lib Dem voters complaining about a policy they supported from a government they dislike.

    11th January 2017, "Would you support or oppose increasing the basic rate of employees national insurance from 12% to 13% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS?"

    CON: 55% support / 28% oppose (+27)
    LAB: 60% support / 22% oppose (+38)
    LD: 67% support / 23% oppose (+44)
    TOTAL: 53% support / 26% oppose (+27)

    20 July 2021, same question:

    CON: 64% support / 23% oppose (+41)
    LAB: 60% support / 25% oppose (+35)
    LD: 68% support / 22% oppose (+46)
    TOTAL: 57% support / 25% oppose (+35)

    7 September 2021, "The government has announced a rise of 1.25% on National Insurance, which it says will go towards paying for the NHS and social care. Do you support or oppose this rise?"

    CON: 59% support / 35% oppose (+24)
    LAB: 33% support / 55% oppose (-22)
    LD: 50% support / 46% oppose (+4)
    TOTAL: 44% support / 43% oppose (+1)

    Maybe some decent Boomers have thought that snatching even more money from their grandchildren without being asked to contribute themselves isn't a good idea?
    If only I had linked the crosstabs so you could check for yourself how age and partisan alignment measure up.

    Net change in support, July to September:
    65+, -24
    LAB, -57
    LD, -42

    Perhaps the funniest finding might be the 18-24s realising they don't like socialism as much as they thought they did.

    January 2017: 44% support / 23% oppose (+21)
    July 2021: 42% support / 28% oppose (+14)
    September 2021: 26% support / 47% oppose (-21)
    In what way is raising taxes on workers to protect the inheritances of the wealthy Socialist?
    And a massive net transfer from deprived to wealthy regions too.
    Just behind Phil I see.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,406
    Sandpit said:

    I take back my criticisms of these proposals and Boris Johnson.


    The NS have started with the shape of the graph they wanted, then gone well out of their way to find second-order data that they can make fit.
    Yes, a percentage of a percentage.
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436

    Looks like Labour and Lib Dem voters complaining about a policy they supported from a government they dislike.

    11th January 2017, "Would you support or oppose increasing the basic rate of employees national insurance from 12% to 13% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS?"

    CON: 55% support / 28% oppose (+27)
    LAB: 60% support / 22% oppose (+38)
    LD: 67% support / 23% oppose (+44)
    TOTAL: 53% support / 26% oppose (+27)

    20 July 2021, same question:

    CON: 64% support / 23% oppose (+41)
    LAB: 60% support / 25% oppose (+35)
    LD: 68% support / 22% oppose (+46)
    TOTAL: 57% support / 25% oppose (+35)

    7 September 2021, "The government has announced a rise of 1.25% on National Insurance, which it says will go towards paying for the NHS and social care. Do you support or oppose this rise?"

    CON: 59% support / 35% oppose (+24)
    LAB: 33% support / 55% oppose (-22)
    LD: 50% support / 46% oppose (+4)
    TOTAL: 44% support / 43% oppose (+1)

    I asked for a kind of bottled water/Pepsi challenge on this yesterday, and here it is - with predictable results. Amazing really
  • Sandpit said:

    I take back my criticisms of these proposals and Boris Johnson.


    The NS have started with the shape of the graph they wanted, then gone well out of their way to find second-order data that they can make fit.
    Agreed. I'm all up for attacking the policy on principles but that's just absurd.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469

    OT there's an ongoing online auction of sporting memorabilia. Some fascinating lots if you are buying presents for someone that way inclined. Trouble is, it's half over.
    https://bidlive.grahambuddauctions.co.uk/auctions/7924/srgrah10030

    That’s not good at all. Hundreds of ways to spend money I don’t have on things I don’t need.. :D
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,398
    Worth noting these polls are far more divided than those last week suggesting strong support for a NI increase amongst all age groups.

    Conservative voters are very divided on it.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,499

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion

    "Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister

    Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"


    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20

    Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?

    Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.

    Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.

    It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
    OK, it's not unique to this government, but anyone with foresight wouldn't have touched this government with a bargepole.

    Here's the funny thing, though. Until a few hours ago, there was lots of genuine Conservative criticism of this plan as it emerged. And that has melted away like snow on a day like this. I'd want to see tomorrow's Mail, Telegraph and Sun before saying the government are totally out of the woods, but it's amazing really.

    And whilst the key principle of the government is that Comrade Johnson is always right, it's striking to see. I can't help thinking of David Low's "They salute with both hands now"...
    I think it may be because of four things: 1) the 1.25% is to be applied to highest earners, who will end up paying more of the cost, 2) It is to be set up as a new hypothecated levy rather than a straight NI increase, 3) the triple lock has been paused thus avoiding the absurd increase to the oldies and 4) the erstwhile critics twigged that this was going to land reasonably well with the sheeples.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 523
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion

    "Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister

    Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"


    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20

    Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?

    Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.

    Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.

    It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
    OK, it's not unique to this government, but anyone with foresight wouldn't have touched this government with a bargepole.

    Here's the funny thing, though. Until a few hours ago, there was lots of genuine Conservative criticism of this plan as it emerged. And that has melted away like snow on a day like this. I'd want to see tomorrow's Mail, Telegraph and Sun before saying the government are totally out of the woods, but it's amazing really.

    And whilst the key principle of the government is that Comrade Johnson is always right, it's striking to see. I can't help thinking of David Low's "They salute with both hands now"...
    The government are going to get mauled in tomorrow’s papers.

    Guido already has a nice list of think-tank quotes about the changes, none of which are particularly complimentary and all of whom have probably penned opinion pieces this afternoon.
    https://order-order.com/2021/09/07/wonks-outraged-by-boriss-tax-hike/
    Here's a purely personal example of why it's a stupid policy.

    I have a job, a business and a rental property. The job accounts for about 60% of my income, the business around 25% (somewhat less this year!) and the rental property the remainder.

    The rental property, because it's in the hands of a very reliable tenant, isn't a lot of work. I make 3-4 inspection visits a year, arrange for maintenance and repairs (and pay for them, obvs) and do odd bits and pieces of work on it myself.

    The business, because I am very proficient in music, I don't need to spend lots of time preparing for it. So, I had a professional engagement in Bristol last Sunday, I spent a grand total of an hour practicing then a couple of hours there - with the drive, six hours work in all. Tutoring, on the rare occasions I do it, does require some more prep and marking but there's lots of crossover with what I teach. For every hour's tutoring, maybe a total of 75 minutes' work.

    Teaching - well, that's pretty full on. Maybe 50 hours a week in normal times, 60 when it's busy, perhaps 40 in the summer term when my exam classes are finished, plus holidays.

    So here's the bizarre nature of the tax. I'm being taxed still more heavily for the thing I work hardest on. The others will miss all or most of it, even though that's what I put least effort into.

    In order to theoretically inherit a few more quid from my dad when he snuffs it - which given how ill he's been recently is not likely to involve a long stay in a care home anyway.

    If you punish work in this way, you discourage work. In fact, Johnson is now making a strong financial case for me to give up working or at least substantially reduce my hours to work on other things just as the DfE are making a strong practical one.

    It is madness, and while I realise most people are not in my fortunate situation with plenty of other financial irons in the fire or everybody is in the rather less fortunate position of having a sick parent to monitor* is this really the message a sane government would be pushing?

    *Most of us go through it at some point of course or tragically, the other way round. But not all of us at the same time.
    The nature of National Insurance is such that it was ever thus. It is essentially a tax on productive work.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983

    Looks like Labour and Lib Dem voters complaining about a policy they supported from a government they dislike.

    11th January 2017, "Would you support or oppose increasing the basic rate of employees national insurance from 12% to 13% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS?"

    CON: 55% support / 28% oppose (+27)
    LAB: 60% support / 22% oppose (+38)
    LD: 67% support / 23% oppose (+44)
    TOTAL: 53% support / 26% oppose (+27)

    20 July 2021, same question:

    CON: 64% support / 23% oppose (+41)
    LAB: 60% support / 25% oppose (+35)
    LD: 68% support / 22% oppose (+46)
    TOTAL: 57% support / 25% oppose (+35)

    7 September 2021, "The government has announced a rise of 1.25% on National Insurance, which it says will go towards paying for the NHS and social care. Do you support or oppose this rise?"

    CON: 59% support / 35% oppose (+24)
    LAB: 33% support / 55% oppose (-22)
    LD: 50% support / 46% oppose (+4)
    TOTAL: 44% support / 43% oppose (+1)

    While some voters will be aware of the differing consequences of increases in IT vs NICs, I suspect a fair chunk is driven by party preference and if the government had increased IT the responses would have favoured increasing NICs....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469

    Worth noting these polls are far more divided than those last week suggesting strong support for a NI increase amongst all age groups.

    Conservative voters are very divided on it.

    If Conservative voters are divided on it, as evidenced here and elsewhere, then how must Conservative MPs - many of whom campaigned against taxes on jobs - be feeling tonight?

    I’m still expecting resignations, even if only from the junior ministerial ranks.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804

    Worth noting these polls are far more divided than those last week suggesting strong support for a NI increase amongst all age groups.

    Conservative voters are very divided on it.

    Indeed. Given the net Party figures, and the age breakdowns, and the age profile of Tory voting, it is difficult to see much of a plurality for it amongst working age Conservatives.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,871
    edited September 7

    Sandpit said:

    I take back my criticisms of these proposals and Boris Johnson.


    The NS have started with the shape of the graph they wanted, then gone well out of their way to find second-order data that they can make fit.
    Agreed. I'm all up for attacking the policy on principles but that's just absurd.
    While looking into the data behind the plot I noticed that there was a lower NI rate for earnings above £967 of 2%. Surely raising that threshold or rate would have been another good way to raise revenue.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,499
    dixiedean said:

    Worth noting these polls are far more divided than those last week suggesting strong support for a NI increase amongst all age groups.

    Conservative voters are very divided on it.

    Indeed. Given the net Party figures, and the age breakdowns, and the age profile of Tory voting, it is difficult to see much of a plurality for it amongst working age Conservatives.
    No, but this is a tax rise and as such I think the government will be very pleased with how this has landed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion

    "Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister

    Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"


    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20

    Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?

    Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.

    Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.

    It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
    OK, it's not unique to this government, but anyone with foresight wouldn't have touched this government with a bargepole.

    Here's the funny thing, though. Until a few hours ago, there was lots of genuine Conservative criticism of this plan as it emerged. And that has melted away like snow on a day like this. I'd want to see tomorrow's Mail, Telegraph and Sun before saying the government are totally out of the woods, but it's amazing really.

    And whilst the key principle of the government is that Comrade Johnson is always right, it's striking to see. I can't help thinking of David Low's "They salute with both hands now"...
    I think it may be because of four things: 1) the 1.25% is to be applied to highest earners, who will end up paying more of the cost, 2) It is to be set up as a new hypothecated levy rather than a straight NI increase, 3) the triple lock has been paused thus avoiding the absurd increase to the oldies and 4) the erstwhile critics twigged that this was going to land reasonably well with the sheeples.
    Not to mention dark hints of a re-shuffle.
    Even the thickest, most unsuitable can see themselves in the back of a chauffeur driven car.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,398
    Sandpit said:

    Worth noting these polls are far more divided than those last week suggesting strong support for a NI increase amongst all age groups.

    Conservative voters are very divided on it.

    If Conservative voters are divided on it, as evidenced here and elsewhere, then how must Conservative MPs - many of whom campaigned against taxes on jobs - be feeling tonight?

    I’m still expecting resignations, even if only from the junior ministerial ranks.
    I think they'll grumble but mainly go along with it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,354
    HYUFD said:

    In other polling news:

    CDU dropping below 20% for the first time ever in a poll published in postwar Germany

    https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1435189981656584194?s=20

    Yet in Bavaria the CSU are still on nearly 30%, so Soder's party winning Bavaria could mean Bavaria is the only state in Germany the Union wins. This would be very much the CDU and Laschet's defeat as it deserves to be
    You appear to be missing that in Bavaria they got 39% last time
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469
    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    The National Insurance hike is expected pass with no major rebellion

    "Most rebels will swallow it and recognise the PM has the momentum," says an ex-minister

    Senior Tory MP: "If you vote against it, where does that leave social care?"


    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435275633484091401?s=20

    Given that this will have fuck all effect on social care, may I suggest it will leave it in exactly the same place as if they vote for it?

    Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.

    Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.

    It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
    OK, it's not unique to this government, but anyone with foresight wouldn't have touched this government with a bargepole.

    Here's the funny thing, though. Until a few hours ago, there was lots of genuine Conservative criticism of this plan as it emerged. And that has melted away like snow on a day like this. I'd want to see tomorrow's Mail, Telegraph and Sun before saying the government are totally out of the woods, but it's amazing really.

    And whilst the key principle of the government is that Comrade Johnson is always right, it's striking to see. I can't help thinking of David Low's "They salute with both hands now"...
    The government are going to get mauled in tomorrow’s papers.

    Guido already has a nice list of think-tank quotes about the changes, none of which are particularly complimentary and all of whom have probably penned opinion pieces this afternoon.
    https://order-order.com/2021/09/07/wonks-outraged-by-boriss-tax-hike/
    Here's a purely personal example of why it's a stupid policy.

    I have a job, a business and a rental property. The job accounts for about 60% of my income, the business around 25% (somewhat less this year!) and the rental property the remainder.

    The rental property, because it's in the hands of a very reliable tenant, isn't a lot of work. I make 3-4 inspection visits a year, arrange for maintenance and repairs (and pay for them, obvs) and do odd bits and pieces of work on it myself.

    The business, because I am very proficient in music, I don't need to spend lots of time preparing for it. So, I had a professional engagement in Bristol last Sunday, I spent a grand total of an hour practicing then a couple of hours there - with the drive, six hours work in all. Tutoring, on the rare occasions I do it, does require some more prep and marking but there's lots of crossover with what I teach. For every hour's tutoring, maybe a total of 75 minutes' work.

    Teaching - well, that's pretty full on. Maybe 50 hours a week in normal times, 60 when it's busy, perhaps 40 in the summer term when my exam classes are finished, plus holidays.

    So here's the bizarre nature of the tax. I'm being taxed still more heavily for the thing I work hardest on. The others will miss all or most of it, even though that's what I put least effort into.

    In order to theoretically inherit a few more quid from my dad when he snuffs it - which given how ill he's been recently is not likely to involve a long stay in a care home anyway.

    If you punish work in this way, you discourage work. In fact, Johnson is now making a strong financial case for me to give up working or at least substantially reduce my hours to work on other things just as the DfE are making a strong practical one.

    It is madness, and while I realise most people are not in my fortunate situation with plenty of other financial irons in the fire or everybody is in the rather less fortunate position of having a sick parent to monitor* is this really the message a sane government would be pushing?

    *Most of us go through it at some point of course or tragically, the other way round. But not all of us at the same time.
    The nature of National Insurance is such that it was ever thus. It is essentially a tax on productive work.
    Which is why it's a stupid tax.

    It had some reason in the first 40 years of its existence, when it was genuinely used to fund sick pay and health care in a government backed scheme. But when PAYE and then the NHS was brought in in the 1940s it shoudl have been scrapped then.
    Yep. They should have used the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to abolish NI and roll it into income tax, at least on the employee side. Instead, they’ve made payroll taxes more complicated - great for accountants and tax lawyers, not so for small businesses.
  • What I don't understand about this whole fandango is how perilously thin the government's excuse is. "Covid wasn't on the manifesto either" backed with "we have to put taxes up its the only responsible way".

    What is missing?
    That the money isn't going to social care either
    That the money is to close the funding crisis which was already there before Covid despite the £350m a week won back from UVDL
    That the money announced doesn't fund social care
    That they had no way to pay for social care without this even without Covid
    That its a tax on jobs to protect Tory-voting pensioners
    That waiting times are going to go up anyway

    But as @bigjohnowls has fucked off to join the Tories like his trot mate Bastani I suppose the PM can claim some kind of victory. The trots always want the Tories to win, its how they find things to complain about in that smug self-righteousway they have about them.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,077
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    In other polling news:

    CDU dropping below 20% for the first time ever in a poll published in postwar Germany

    https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1435189981656584194?s=20

    Yet in Bavaria the CSU are still on nearly 30%, so Soder's party winning Bavaria could mean Bavaria is the only state in Germany the Union wins. This would be very much the CDU and Laschet's defeat as it deserves to be
    Although 30% in Bavaria would also be a post war low for the CSU - so better... but hardly a cause to crack open the bottles of champagne.
    There was also a poll last week with CDU/CSU on 19.5. Also, if we are really talking about the CDU, there were a couple of polls in early November 2019 that had CDU on 19.5% as well as a couple of polls in late 2018 which had them on 19%.

    In fact the latest Bavarian poll has the CSU doing 10% worse than in 2017, so not much better than the fall in CDU vote share in the rest of Germany.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,371
    Looking at the reactions quoted above, I'm seeing a lot of carefully targeted barrel-scraping in what the different groups are attacking, and some very carefully tuned uses of % vs financial amounts.

    What we need now is the start of some form of wealth tax in November, which I would expect to include a rapid change to CGT, and perhaps some reform to Council Tax. It is a good time to begin some major changes.

    They won't address the huge CGT exemption on main dwellings loophole; not bold enough.
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