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2 polls on the day the govt taxed workers more & gave pensioners an increase – politicalbetting.com
2 polls on the day the govt taxed workers more & gave pensioners an increase – politicalbetting.com
SNAP POLL: Britons are split 44% to 43% on raising National Insurance by 1.25pts to pay for NHS and social careAll Brits – 44% support / 43% opposeCon voters – 59% / 34%Lab voters – 33% / 55%18-24 yr olds – 26% / 47%65+ yr olds – 68% / 23%https://t.co/4ZxN7IzdmX pic.twitter.com/g7ybZdmPbH
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Just another day on PB...
And so does Kinabalu
However only 35% of Tory voters back scrapping the triple lock with 40% opposed, so the government must ensure it is only suspended not scrapped altogether to preserve the Tory core vote
There are two types of people in the world, 1) The people Boris Johnson has lied to and betrayed and 2) Those people who have yet to been lied to and betrayed by Boris Johnson.
https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1434919585841664005
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/07/fb53b/2
The general public really don't understand how the current system works and who the changes benefit. Jon Trickett brought up the big difference in house prices, but Starmer didn't go there. And unless he brings it up, the media won't be interested.
Instead, the Labour front bench and the media are busy talking about broken manifesto promises.
https://fraserofallander.org/funding-a-rise-in-social-care-spending-england-implications-for-the-scottish-budget/
"We are used to hearing that the devolution settlement is constraining the policy choices of the Scottish Government. The notion that the devolution settlement might potentially constrain the UK Government’s policy choices comes as something of a surprise.
Whether or not these issues are significant enough to justify a potential UK Government decision to fund an increase in social care spending increase via NICs rather than IT is debateable. And to be fair, it is clear that other considerations, beyond the thorny mechanics of the devolved fiscal framework, have influenced the UK Government’s apparent preference for relying on NICs.
But it is also clear that there are material issues here which the UK Government might be concerned about. These are likely to feature heavily in the upcoming review of the fiscal framework."
What is significantly different with this one?
The majority of people vote with their wallet.
If this doesn't start to generate Labour poll leads then you have to wonder what will.
May's proposal affected anyone with property over £100,000 who would have lost it all if they needed at home social care as would their children and grandchildren. Today's proposal also caps the assets you have to spend on social care at no more than £86,000
I think.
Got a phone call about an hour ago from a headhunter offering me an interview at a boutique investment bank in London (but with the potential for 95% WFH).
Sounded a lot like Robey Warshaw, if it is, I'm in.
PS - I'm sure I've got some comments from George circa 2007-2016 saying an increase on NI is a tax on jobs.
Apart from higher taxes for workers now?
Very stupid policy. To take one obvious example, how many schools operating on savagely tightened budgets are now going to be tipped into deficit? This is roughly the equivalent of giving all staff a 3% pay rise without even buying goodwill in return.
Similarly, local authorities are under horrendous pressure and unless council tax is raised dramatically this could send several more the way of Northants.
It would be nice - just for once - to have a government where somebody with two brain cells to rub together was in charge of planning ahead.
Masks around 80 per cent so last week's drop has not continued.
Gaps on shelves including bottled water and bin liners, as well as Covid tests!
https://lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/lgastandard?mod-metric=5230&mod-area=E92000001&mod-group=AllRegions_England&mod-type=namedComparisonGroup
CDU dropping below 20% for the first time ever in a poll published in postwar Germany
https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1435189981656584194?s=20
Good luck with the headhunter.
Anyhoo I just know this job will in fact be Deutsche.
The pensioners are, by and large, fully bought off.
Always think that if you have it in September the effects are probably starting to wane by February/March...
https://bidlive.grahambuddauctions.co.uk/auctions/7924/srgrah10030
So what you're saying is that wealthy Southerners will keep more of their unearned inheritance, while Red Wall voters will get tax rises to pay for that but no benefit?
Bishop Auckland median house price £120,000
Hartlepool median house price £128,500
Leigh median house price £158,500
Indeed its not just the Red Wall, the median house price in the North West and the North East are both less than £180k.
So "levelling up" is giving us tax rises and you an inheritance? 🤔
It's the traditional Tory way.
11th January 2017, "Would you support or oppose increasing the basic rate of employees national insurance from 12% to 13% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS?"
CON: 55% support / 28% oppose (+27)
LAB: 60% support / 22% oppose (+38)
LD: 67% support / 23% oppose (+44)
TOTAL: 53% support / 26% oppose (+27)
20 July 2021, same question:
CON: 64% support / 23% oppose (+41)
LAB: 60% support / 25% oppose (+35)
LD: 68% support / 22% oppose (+46)
TOTAL: 57% support / 25% oppose (+35)
7 September 2021, "The government has announced a rise of 1.25% on National Insurance, which it says will go towards paying for the NHS and social care. Do you support or oppose this rise?"
CON: 59% support / 35% oppose (+24)
LAB: 33% support / 55% oppose (-22)
LD: 50% support / 46% oppose (+4)
TOTAL: 44% support / 43% oppose (+1)
This was an unsolicited phone call.
Though under this plan even in the Red Wall those needing social care with house values over £100,000 ie most of them would still get to keep some of the value given the £86,000 cap and there would then be state help for those with assets from £20,000-£100,000.
Red Wall voters earn less so in absolute terms pay less NI too
Or possibly people answering the question in January didn't realise that pensioners, landlords etc don't pay NI so it's just a tax on them and not a fair tax paid by everyone. And now that's being shared people realise they're getting screwed?
Maybe some decent Boomers have thought that snatching even more money from their grandchildren without being asked to contribute themselves isn't a good idea? Maybe there's some grandparents who don't only think about themselves and actually care for their grandkids?
Unlikely I know but possible.
Here's the funny thing, though. Until a few hours ago, there was lots of genuine Conservative criticism of this plan as it emerged. And that has melted away like snow on a day like this. I'd want to see tomorrow's Mail, Telegraph and Sun before saying the government are totally out of the woods, but it's amazing really.
And whilst the key principle of the government is that Comrade Johnson is always right, it's striking to see. I can't help thinking of David Low's "They salute with both hands now"...
She had had no contact with the recruitment agency, ever.
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 32% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
REFUK: 4% (-)
via @RedfieldWilton, 06 Sep Chgs. w/ 29 Aug
Guido already has a nice list of think-tank quotes about the changes, none of which are particularly complimentary and all of whom have probably penned opinion pieces this afternoon.
https://order-order.com/2021/09/07/wonks-outraged-by-boriss-tax-hike/
Net change in support, July to September:
65+, -24
LAB, -57
LD, -42
Perhaps the funniest finding might be the 18-24s realising they don't like socialism as much as they thought they did.
January 2017: 44% support / 23% oppose (+21)
July 2021: 42% support / 28% oppose (+14)
September 2021: 26% support / 47% oppose (-21)
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/north-america/2021/09/why-justin-trudeau-s-snap-election-backfiring
Although he seems to imply he is dead and buried. "Very slight chance they will fall to 34 seats".
There isn't any chance of that. Whatsoever.
The new Health & Social Care Levy provides no new funding for social care for at least 3 years. No money for living costs, only personal care costs. Selling your home is just deferred. It is a tax on jobs. I need much more detail to even consider supporting it.
https://twitter.com/SMcPartland/status/1435281710095155202
https://twitter.com/Anoosh_C/status/1435286727682314247
Working class Northerners paying for posh rich southerners help give their families big inheritances.
Taxing the hard working poor in society to give the money to the wealthiest in society is Sheriff of Nottingham not Robin Hood.
And a massive net transfer from deprived to wealthy regions too.
Just behind Phil I see.
I have a job, a business and a rental property. The job accounts for about 60% of my income, the business around 25% (somewhat less this year!) and the rental property the remainder.
The rental property, because it's in the hands of a very reliable tenant, isn't a lot of work. I make 3-4 inspection visits a year, arrange for maintenance and repairs (and pay for them, obvs) and do odd bits and pieces of work on it myself.
The business, because I am very proficient in music, I don't need to spend lots of time preparing for it. So, I had a professional engagement in Bristol last Sunday, I spent a grand total of an hour practicing then a couple of hours there - with the drive, six hours work in all. Tutoring, on the rare occasions I do it, does require some more prep and marking but there's lots of crossover with what I teach. For every hour's tutoring, maybe a total of 75 minutes' work.
Teaching - well, that's pretty full on. Maybe 50 hours a week in normal times, 60 when it's busy, perhaps 40 in the summer term when my exam classes are finished, plus holidays.
So here's the bizarre nature of the tax. I'm being taxed still more heavily for the thing I work hardest on. The others will miss all or most of it, even though that's what I put least effort into.
In order to theoretically inherit a few more quid from my dad when he snuffs it - which given how ill he's been recently is not likely to involve a long stay in a care home anyway.
If you punish work in this way, you discourage work. In fact, Johnson is now making a strong financial case for me to give up working or at least substantially reduce my hours to work on other things just as the DfE are making a strong practical one.
It is madness, and while I realise most people are not in my fortunate situation with plenty of other financial irons in the fire or everybody is in the rather less fortunate position of having a sick parent to monitor* is this really the message a sane government would be pushing?
*Most of us go through it at some point of course or tragically, the other way round. But not all of us at the same time.
Conservative voters are very divided on it.
I’m still expecting resignations, even if only from the junior ministerial ranks.
My personal highlight was BJO fucking off to join the Tories.
Even the thickest, most unsuitable can see themselves in the back of a chauffeur driven car.
It had some reason in the first 40 years of its existence, when it was genuinely used to fund sick pay and health care in a government backed scheme. But when PAYE and then the NHS was brought in in the 1940s it shoudl have been scrapped then.
What is missing?
That the money isn't going to social care either
That the money is to close the funding crisis which was already there before Covid despite the £350m a week won back from UVDL
That the money announced doesn't fund social care
That they had no way to pay for social care without this even without Covid
That its a tax on jobs to protect Tory-voting pensioners
That waiting times are going to go up anyway
But as @bigjohnowls has fucked off to join the Tories like his trot mate Bastani I suppose the PM can claim some kind of victory. The trots always want the Tories to win, its how they find things to complain about in that smug self-righteousway they have about them.
In fact the latest Bavarian poll has the CSU doing 10% worse than in 2017, so not much better than the fall in CDU vote share in the rest of Germany.
What we need now is the start of some form of wealth tax in November, which I would expect to include a rapid change to CGT, and perhaps some reform to Council Tax. It is a good time to begin some major changes.
They won't address the huge CGT exemption on main dwellings loophole; not bold enough.