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For those betting on a Labour poll lead in 2021 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited September 2021 in General
For those betting on a Labour poll lead in 2021 – politicalbetting.com

This might not age well, but I think ending the triple lock is far more likely to create a backlash than the rise in national insurance. https://t.co/DKvtA1Vy6z

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    First !
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Fun fact.

    Autocorrect changed the last word of this thread, September into stepmom.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited September 2021
    I put my bet on months ago and have increased it a couple of times, you all called me a fool! :D
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited September 2021
    rottenborough said:

    another_richard said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Here we go....England cases now increasing....

    So ?

    Notice that tests and now increasing.

    Notice also that Scotland's are now levelling off.
    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    The Scottish cases spike seems to have died away fairly quickly & harmlessly. My current guess is that we'll get even less than this in England cos in Scotland that's both the Step 4 (& some Step 3) spike & the schools return spike combined. But even if we got that, it'd be mild.

    Saying the scottish spike has died away is 'a bit' of a reach given the length of data we have.

    Todays figure is higher than last Saturday's.

    We might be levelling off and soon start a fall but we would still be at the peak right now.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I put my bet on months ago and have increased it a couple of times, you all called me a fool! :D

    Not all of us.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    People support more government spending shocker.

    Now poll them on which taxes they wish to raise to pay for it.

    The answer, of course, will be taxes on other people.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,505
    I wonder how many of those people supporting the triple lock would still say so if they had to pay £100 a year extra tax to pay for it. (No idea what the cost is but somebody is paying for it, if it happens).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,009
    New ball does the trick.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Said this on the other thread but isn't this just confirming that individual policies poll well but the package does not?

    Labour's 2019 policies polled well individually but overall they lost in a landslide.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT but completely on topic.
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Based on the level of anger on this site from working age Tory voters, if Boris and Sunak proceed with this insanity then a Labour poll lead should be absolutely nailed on soon.

    We're ahead of the curve and understand that only certain people are screwed by NI which others don't necessarily realise.

    Once this is actually announced expect all hell to be brought down upon it. Like the dementia tax.

    Lay the Tories. They're determined to lose my vote and the vote of anyone else who works for a living.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    I wonder what happens if you ask the question: "Do you think pensioners should get an 8% pay rise this autumn?"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT but completely on topic.

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Based on the level of anger on this site from working age Tory voters, if Boris and Sunak proceed with this insanity then a Labour poll lead should be absolutely nailed on soon.

    We're ahead of the curve and understand that only certain people are screwed by NI which others don't necessarily realise.

    Once this is actually announced expect all hell to be brought down upon it. Like the dementia tax.

    Lay the Tories. They're determined to lose my vote and the vote of anyone else who works for a living.

    Gordon Brown did it. Although he laid the ground by commissioning and publishing a major report on NHS funding. Although whether any one much noticed the report (was it Wanless?) outside of the beltway is another matter.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    rottenborough said:

    I wonder what happens if you ask the question: "Do you think pensioners should get an 8% pay rise this autumn?"

    "Are you willing to pay extra tax so that pensioners can get an 8% pay rise this autumn ?"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    paulyork64 said:

    I wonder how many of those people supporting the triple lock would still say so if they had to pay £100 a year extra tax to pay for it. (No idea what the cost is but somebody is paying for it, if it happens).

    IFS says the 8% rise will cost £7billion.

    That's ≈ one penny on income tax I think.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited September 2021
    Monster death numbers out of florida. Hard to rell with how various sites report the figures but it looks like they have sailed passed the UK equivalent of 1k a day.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-03/florida-s-newly-reported-covid-deaths-jump-to-pandemic-record?sref=fjrBr5qu
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alistair said:

    Monster death numbers out of florida. Hard to rell with how various sites report the figures but it looks like they have sailed passed the UK equivalent of 1k a day.

    I believe Florida have fudged the figures by switching to reporting by day of death then backdating them, so its going to be even higher once it gets backdated.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    Rolling Stone
    @RollingStone
    Gunshot victims left waiting as horse dewormer overdoses overwhelm Oklahoma hospitals, doctor says https://rol.st/38CChjl
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Heh.


  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Is this a case of the govt frontloading the medicine so as to be able to give a spoonful of sugar at GE campaign time?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Alistair said:

    Monster death numbers out of florida. Hard to rell with how various sites report the figures but it looks like they have sailed passed the UK equivalent of 1k a day.

    I believe Florida have fudged the figures by switching to reporting by day of death then backdating them, so its going to be even higher once it gets backdated.
    They also report infrequently - no daily updates for them. It is very hard to get a clear picture of how deep in the doodoo they are. Prior to this weekly update their current high point by date of death was 263 deaths on the 15th of August. But they are really slow in updating these day of death figures. There is still scope for that to be revised higher.

    The Bloomberg report I linked to is based on their weekly CDC filed report which is an average of 335 a day increase over the last week. Time 3.3 to get an equivalent UK population and that's the equivalent of 1105 a day.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited September 2021
    isam said:

    Is this a case of the govt frontloading the medicine so as to be able to give a spoonful of sugar at GE campaign time?

    I think you misunderstand how fked the public finances are.

    I think Tory mps do, too.

    If they’re genuinely interested in balancing the books, we’ll need stronger medicine.

    Boris doesn’t care about balancing the books though, so we get this token effort.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    edited September 2021
    rottenborough said:

    Rolling Stone
    @RollingStone
    Gunshot victims left waiting as horse dewormer overdoses overwhelm Oklahoma hospitals, doctor says https://rol.st/38CChjl

    In the Guardian too, so must be right.

    Just... well, not quite...... back from excellent lunch.

    Nobody anywhere masked
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ping said:

    isam said:

    Is this a case of the govt frontloading the medicine so as to be able to give a spoonful of sugar at GE campaign time?

    I think you misunderstand how fked the public finances are.

    I think Tory mps do, too.

    If they’re genuinely interested in balancing the books, we’ll need stronger medicine.

    Boris doesn’t care about balancing the books though, so we get this token effort.
    I don't think I misunderstand them.. I havent even tried to! No idea
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779
    rottenborough said:

    paulyork64 said:

    I wonder how many of those people supporting the triple lock would still say so if they had to pay £100 a year extra tax to pay for it. (No idea what the cost is but somebody is paying for it, if it happens).

    IFS says the 8% rise will cost £7billion.
    That's ≈ one penny on income tax I think.
    I always reckoned a penny on income tax raised about £4.5 billion so more like 1.5p on income tax.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    So the non paediatric medics and scientists want to vax children, but paediatric don't?

    Hmmmm...



    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    1h
    This brings me to Myth 2:
    Myth 2: Scientists have advised against vaccination of 12-15 year olds
    Fact: Most scientists strongly support vaccination of 12-15 yr olds. There are outliers in JCVI & parts of the UK paeds community that don't. But this view is in no way the consensus
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    edited September 2021
    OldKingCole said:

    rottenborough said:

    Rolling Stone
    @RollingStone
    Gunshot victims left waiting as horse dewormer overdoses overwhelm Oklahoma hospitals, doctor says https://rol.st/38CChjl

    In the Guardian too, so must be right.

    Just... well, not quite...... back from excellent lunch.

    Nobody anywhere masked
    Just back from a memorial service for an old friend, nearly everyone masked. I ran some errands in nearby Clarendon Park, where about 50% masked, and near zero at #LeicesterPride, though a lot of other interesting outfits on show.

    Tell people it's over, and they will act as if it is so.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Can you believe the state of this , how desperate was Sturgeon and her pals to stitch up Salmond. WTF is up with the state police also.


  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779
    As an aside, looking at the French Presidential polling, the choice of the centre-right between Barnier, Pecresse and Bertrans doesn't seem to make a lot of difference. All poll mid to high teens but it's still a Macron-Le Pen run off in Round two.

    The best chance to break this might be for Eric Zemmour to run - he takes a big chunk out of Marine Le Pen's vote and might just do enough to enable one of the centre-right candidates to nick second in round one.

    We'll see.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    If you like watching scientists fight then,

    Deepti Gurdasani gives JCVI both barrels in this long thread. Reckless beyond imagination etc etc.


    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1434177039263748098
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    Once it reaches a tipping point it can really change fast.

    I thought it was interesting at the school gates last week. First morning back was Thursday morning when it was ~10% masked, 90% not.

    Friday it was ~1% masked, 99% not.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,009
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    Once it reaches a tipping point it can really change fast.

    I thought it was interesting at the school gates last week. First morning back was Thursday morning when it was ~10% masked, 90% not.

    Friday it was ~1% masked, 99% not.
    Most supermarkets I've been in recently were only about 20% wearing masks. But Waitrose was significantly higher at about 40%.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494
    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    stodge said:

    As an aside, looking at the French Presidential polling, the choice of the centre-right between Barnier, Pecresse and Bertrans doesn't seem to make a lot of difference. All poll mid to high teens but it's still a Macron-Le Pen run off in Round two.

    The best chance to break this might be for Eric Zemmour to run - he takes a big chunk out of Marine Le Pen's vote and might just do enough to enable one of the centre-right candidates to nick second in round one.

    We'll see.

    Historically, whoever gets into the final round vs Le Pen wins. I wonder if that will continue. If one of the centre-right candidates manages to edge out Le Pen, it would look like curtains for Macron.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2021
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    Once it reaches a tipping point it can really change fast.

    I thought it was interesting at the school gates last week. First morning back was Thursday morning when it was ~10% masked, 90% not.

    Friday it was ~1% masked, 99% not.
    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.

    *****Humongous Mask Arb*****
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I put my bet on months ago and have increased it a couple of times, you all called me a fool! :D

    It seems a pretty good bet, as there is nearly always a conference bounce, even for leaders who don't prove popular in the long run.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779
    Philip_Thompson said:


    I thought it was interesting at the school gates last week. First morning back was Thursday morning when it was ~10% masked, 90% not.

    Friday it was ~1% masked, 99% not.

    Similar story here in downtown East London. There are still mask wearers - mainly though by no means exclusively older people, often Asian. It also seems some family groups will all wear masks while other families don't.

    Some younger people do wear masks even outdoors which I find a little surprising.

    Based on the lower ONS population estimates, Newham is running at 71% of adults double vaccinated so that leaves around 70,000 adults in the Borough less than fully vaccinated but of course many of them will have achieved immunity through infection. The case numbers in my area remain just above the national average (305 per 100, 000 or 25 actual cases in my neck of the woods).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    Yes, peer pressure works both ways. Very few were masked on the Red Funnel to Southampton yesterday, despite the Island being a covid hotspot and the ferry ram packed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,009
    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    SW Surrey is one of the most middle-class seats in the country if I remember correctly.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    I was in Sainsbury’s at the Arnison in North Durham today, early morning mainly older people, and pretty much everyone was masked up there. I wonder if people still wear masks up here as in the last spike the north east went into it very quickly.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    Foxy said:

    OldKingCole said:

    rottenborough said:

    Rolling Stone
    @RollingStone
    Gunshot victims left waiting as horse dewormer overdoses overwhelm Oklahoma hospitals, doctor says https://rol.st/38CChjl

    In the Guardian too, so must be right.

    Just... well, not quite...... back from excellent lunch.

    Nobody anywhere masked
    Just back from a memorial service for an old friend, nearly everyone masked. I ran some errands in nearby Clarendon Park, where about 50% masked, and near zero at #LeicesterPride, though a lot of other interesting outfits on show.

    Tell people it's over, and they will act as if it is so.
    No-one very near each other; (charming) waitress stood well back from us, tables well separated. Half a dozen other tables occupied..... all looked like 'established' pairs or groups.
    Excellent sea bass with chilli prawns for me, salmon and lobster bisque for Mrs C..
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    malcolmg said:

    Can you believe the state of this , how desperate was Sturgeon and her pals to stitch up Salmond. WTF is up with the state police also.


    Sorry, what ?

    Please tell me this is satire.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    edited September 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    Once it reaches a tipping point it can really change fast.

    I thought it was interesting at the school gates last week. First morning back was Thursday morning when it was ~10% masked, 90% not.

    Friday it was ~1% masked, 99% not.
    Most supermarkets I've been in recently were only about 20% wearing masks. But Waitrose was significantly higher at about 40%.
    Sainsbury's this week was about 80% masked still but this was the first time it had dropped below about 99%. As @Philip_Thompson says, there can be a tipping point.

    ETA not the same branch as @NickPalmer!
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    NickPalmer said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I put my bet on months ago and have increased it a couple of times, you all called me a fool! :D

    It seems a pretty good bet, as there is nearly always a conference bounce, even for leaders who don't prove popular in the long run.
    I thought it a good bet at the time and I hadn’t considered the conference bounce you rightly mention.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    Foxy said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    Yes, peer pressure works both ways. Very few were masked on the Red Funnel to Southampton yesterday, despite the Island being a covid hotspot and the ferry ram packed.
    Definitely even more motivation to stay at the windward rail than the usual technicolor yawns.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    OldKingCole said:

    Foxy said:

    OldKingCole said:

    rottenborough said:

    Rolling Stone
    @RollingStone
    Gunshot victims left waiting as horse dewormer overdoses overwhelm Oklahoma hospitals, doctor says https://rol.st/38CChjl

    In the Guardian too, so must be right.

    Just... well, not quite...... back from excellent lunch.

    Nobody anywhere masked
    Just back from a memorial service for an old friend, nearly everyone masked. I ran some errands in nearby Clarendon Park, where about 50% masked, and near zero at #LeicesterPride, though a lot of other interesting outfits on show.

    Tell people it's over, and they will act as if it is so.
    No-one very near each other; (charming) waitress stood well back from us, tables well separated. Half a dozen other tables occupied..... all looked like 'established' pairs or groups.
    Excellent sea bass with chilli prawns for me, salmon and lobster bisque for Mrs C..
    Sounds very nice OKC, glad you enjoyed it. I do like sea bass.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,009
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    Once it reaches a tipping point it can really change fast.

    I thought it was interesting at the school gates last week. First morning back was Thursday morning when it was ~10% masked, 90% not.

    Friday it was ~1% masked, 99% not.
    Most supermarkets I've been in recently were only about 20% wearing masks. But Waitrose was significantly higher at about 40%.
    Sainsbury's this week was about 80% masked still but this was the first time it had dropped below about 99%. As @Philip_Thompson says, there can be a tipping point.

    ETA not the same branch as @NickPalmer!
    There are obviously big regional differences as well.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Can you believe the state of this , how desperate was Sturgeon and her pals to stitch up Salmond. WTF is up with the state police also.


    Sorry, what ?

    Please tell me this is satire.
    Does not appear to be.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494
    Andy_JS said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    SW Surrey is one of the most middle-class seats in the country if I remember correctly.
    Yes, it is. Archetypal Blue Wall, voted strongly Remain, few houses costing under £300K, and I see my rental of £1000/month as an amazing bargain. I was surprised the LibDems didn't come closer in 2019, but Jeremy Hunt is a good MP who projects a moderate image.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320
    rottenborough said:

    Rolling Stone
    @RollingStone
    Gunshot victims left waiting as horse dewormer overdoses overwhelm Oklahoma hospitals, doctor says https://rol.st/38CChjl

    Mmm. Those two causes packing A+E says summat about America.
    Would have made an interesting if far fetched episode of ER.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    Once it reaches a tipping point it can really change fast.

    I thought it was interesting at the school gates last week. First morning back was Thursday morning when it was ~10% masked, 90% not.

    Friday it was ~1% masked, 99% not.
    Most supermarkets I've been in recently were only about 20% wearing masks. But Waitrose was significantly higher at about 40%.
    Sainsbury's this week was about 80% masked still but this was the first time it had dropped below about 99%. As @Philip_Thompson says, there can be a tipping point.

    ETA not the same branch as @NickPalmer!
    Where are you ? I wonder if it is regional. I’ve been in Sainsbury’s and Tesco in north durham this week. Sainsbury’s nearly 100% masked, Tesco about 85%. I went to Tesco late afternoon in the week and Sainsbury’s early in the morning today.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    NickPalmer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    SW Surrey is one of the most middle-class seats in the country if I remember correctly.
    Yes, it is. Archetypal Blue Wall, voted strongly Remain, few houses costing under £300K, and I see my rental of £1000/month as an amazing bargain. I was surprised the LibDems didn't come closer in 2019, but Jeremy Hunt is a good MP who projects a moderate image.
    Weren’t they close years ago and thigh tho they had a chance of getting Virginia Bottomley out as part of their decapitation plan for top Tories.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    On NI I expect it to be a package to include all workng pensioners to pay full NI and the triple lock suspended for 2022

    Taken by itself it would be very brave and extremely unwise

    And I have been saying for weeks that a Labour poll lead this year is very possible
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320
    Taz said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    I was in Sainsbury’s at the Arnison in North Durham today, early morning mainly older people, and pretty much everyone was masked up there. I wonder if people still wear masks up here as in the last spike the north east went into it very quickly.
    My impression is that it is locally very lumpy. So all anecdotes can be true at once.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    Taz said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    SW Surrey is one of the most middle-class seats in the country if I remember correctly.
    Yes, it is. Archetypal Blue Wall, voted strongly Remain, few houses costing under £300K, and I see my rental of £1000/month as an amazing bargain. I was surprised the LibDems didn't come closer in 2019, but Jeremy Hunt is a good MP who projects a moderate image.
    Weren’t they close years ago and thigh tho they had a chance of getting Virginia Bottomley out as part of their decapitation plan for top Tories.
    Yes; her majority over the LD in 2001 was 861, according to Wikipedia.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,497
    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Can you believe the state of this , how desperate was Sturgeon and her pals to stitch up Salmond. WTF is up with the state police also.


    Sorry, what ?

    Please tell me this is satire.
    Does not appear to be.
    Time will tell if that story holds water.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    edited September 2021
    rottenborough said:

    paulyork64 said:

    I wonder how many of those people supporting the triple lock would still say so if they had to pay £100 a year extra tax to pay for it. (No idea what the cost is but somebody is paying for it, if it happens).

    IFS says the 8% rise will cost £7billion.

    That's ≈ one penny on income tax I think.

    Compared with what? Unless Rishi has lost all his marbles, there will be a rise in pensions, so a comparison of 8% with 0 is not especially useful. I cannot find the IFS estimate so (obviously) cannot see what baseline increase was used.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    edited September 2021
    Electioneering is in full swing in Wurzburg town square this lunchtime; most of the parties had tents and stands, and there were polite groups standing around chatting at all of them, and lots of free balloons on offer. Sadly despite being your man on the spot, a few Germans having polite conversation doesn’t give away many clues as to how things might be going.

    On the road into town someone with a green spraycan has been out adding what looks like a cucumber and two tomatoes to the CSU and FDP candidates’ posters.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    I was in Sainsbury’s at the Arnison in North Durham today, early morning mainly older people, and pretty much everyone was masked up there. I wonder if people still wear masks up here as in the last spike the north east went into it very quickly.
    My impression is that it is locally very lumpy. So all anecdotes can be true at once.
    Not disputing that at all. I did wonder if it was age or regional.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    OldKingCole said:

    Taz said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    SW Surrey is one of the most middle-class seats in the country if I remember correctly.
    Yes, it is. Archetypal Blue Wall, voted strongly Remain, few houses costing under £300K, and I see my rental of £1000/month as an amazing bargain. I was surprised the LibDems didn't come closer in 2019, but Jeremy Hunt is a good MP who projects a moderate image.
    Weren’t they close years ago and thigh tho they had a chance of getting Virginia Bottomley out as part of their decapitation plan for top Tories.
    Yes; her majority over the LD in 2001 was 861, according to Wikipedia.
    That’s pretty small. I didn’t realise they came that close.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    edited September 2021
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On NI I expect it to be a package to include all workng pensioners to pay full NI and the triple lock suspended for 2022

    Taken by itself it would be very brave and extremely unwise

    And I have been saying for weeks that a Labour poll lead this year is very possible

    Working pensioners are likely to be the poorer ones, with the wealthy sitting at home enjoying their pension and investment income.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    I was in Sainsbury’s at the Arnison in North Durham today, early morning mainly older people, and pretty much everyone was masked up there. I wonder if people still wear masks up here as in the last spike the north east went into it very quickly.
    My impression is that it is locally very lumpy. So all anecdotes can be true at once.
    Not disputing that at all. I did wonder if it was age or regional.
    still compulsory up here and most people wearing them in shops.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,652
    Taz said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    SW Surrey is one of the most middle-class seats in the country if I remember correctly.
    Yes, it is. Archetypal Blue Wall, voted strongly Remain, few houses costing under £300K, and I see my rental of £1000/month as an amazing bargain. I was surprised the LibDems didn't come closer in 2019, but Jeremy Hunt is a good MP who projects a moderate image.
    Weren’t they close years ago and thigh tho they had a chance of getting Virginia Bottomley out as part of their decapitation plan for top Tories.
    Though the 'Decapitation Strategy' flopped abysmally. The only one they got in the end was Tim Collins (remember him?).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On NI I expect it to be a package to include all workng pensioners to pay full NI and the triple lock suspended for 2022

    Taken by itself it would be very brave and extremely unwise

    And I have been saying for weeks that a Labour poll lead this year is very possible

    Working pensioners are likely to be the poorer ones, with the wealthy sitting at home enjoying their pension and investment income.
    Some unquestionably will but you seem to paint a very rosy picture of the retired and their income, especially those outside London and the south
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On NI I expect it to be a package to include all workng pensioners to pay full NI and the triple lock suspended for 2022

    Taken by itself it would be very brave and extremely unwise

    And I have been saying for weeks that a Labour poll lead this year is very possible

    Working pensioners are likely to be the poorer ones, with the wealthy sitting at home enjoying their pension and investment income.
    Yes; many of the working pensioners I know are topping up their State pensions. I gave up working when I realised that continuing professional insurance, plus necessary registration plus income tax meant I was working until around May for for no reward to me.
    Just about halved the money I got.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On NI I expect it to be a package to include all workng pensioners to pay full NI and the triple lock suspended for 2022

    Taken by itself it would be very brave and extremely unwise

    And I have been saying for weeks that a Labour poll lead this year is very possible

    Working pensioners are likely to be the poorer ones, with the wealthy sitting at home enjoying their pension and investment income.
    Some unquestionably will but you seem to paint a very rosy picture of the retired and their income, especially those outside London and the south
    Net of housing costs, on average it is higher than for the average working person, as I said this morning.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,860
    noneoftheabove said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Can you believe the state of this , how desperate was Sturgeon and her pals to stitch up Salmond. WTF is up with the state police also.


    Sorry, what ?

    Please tell me this is satire.
    Does not appear to be.
    Time will tell if that story holds water.
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19555109.iain-macwhirter-sturgeons-scotland-opening-bottle-crime/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On NI I expect it to be a package to include all workng pensioners to pay full NI and the triple lock suspended for 2022

    Taken by itself it would be very brave and extremely unwise

    And I have been saying for weeks that a Labour poll lead this year is very possible

    Working pensioners are likely to be the poorer ones, with the wealthy sitting at home enjoying their pension and investment income.
    Some unquestionably will but you seem to paint a very rosy picture of the retired and their income, especially those outside London and the south
    Net of housing costs, on average it is higher than for the average working person, as I said this morning.
    Is that really a surprising stat? Housing is one of the biggest expenses.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    I was in Sainsbury’s at the Arnison in North Durham today, early morning mainly older people, and pretty much everyone was masked up there. I wonder if people still wear masks up here as in the last spike the north east went into it very quickly.
    My impression is that it is locally very lumpy. So all anecdotes can be true at once.
    Not disputing that at all. I did wonder if it was age or regional.
    still compulsory up here and most people wearing them in shops.
    I was in a 2 metre queue at the fish and chip shop just now, and a woman charged up behind me without her mask and virtually swore and said we are not still doing this nonsense, at a time when cases are rising quite quickly in this part of Wales
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    edited September 2021
    Taz said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    Once it reaches a tipping point it can really change fast.

    I thought it was interesting at the school gates last week. First morning back was Thursday morning when it was ~10% masked, 90% not.

    Friday it was ~1% masked, 99% not.
    Most supermarkets I've been in recently were only about 20% wearing masks. But Waitrose was significantly higher at about 40%.
    Sainsbury's this week was about 80% masked still but this was the first time it had dropped below about 99%. As @Philip_Thompson says, there can be a tipping point.

    ETA not the same branch as @NickPalmer!
    Where are you ? I wonder if it is regional. I’ve been in Sainsbury’s and Tesco in north durham this week. Sainsbury’s nearly 100% masked, Tesco about 85%. I went to Tesco late afternoon in the week and Sainsbury’s early in the morning today.
    I'm in an outer London suburb. My guess is (as others have suggested) that it is more likely to be what social psychologists call a bystander effect. (Kitty Genovese and all that.) We take social cues from those around us. If most of others are masked, we wear them, and if there are lots of unmasked people we take ours off. This would explain the uneven spread, and also tipping point effects. There might also be a slight element of people running out of disposable masks and not buying replacements.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    dixiedean said:

    rottenborough said:

    Rolling Stone
    @RollingStone
    Gunshot victims left waiting as horse dewormer overdoses overwhelm Oklahoma hospitals, doctor says https://rol.st/38CChjl

    Mmm. Those two causes packing A+E says summat about America.
    Would have made an interesting if far fetched episode of ER.
    It's a shame that 'House' is no longer being made. Hugh Laurie could have had great fun with this as a storyline.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    I was in Sainsbury’s at the Arnison in North Durham today, early morning mainly older people, and pretty much everyone was masked up there. I wonder if people still wear masks up here as in the last spike the north east went into it very quickly.
    My impression is that it is locally very lumpy. So all anecdotes can be true at once.
    Not disputing that at all. I did wonder if it was age or regional.
    still compulsory up here and most people wearing them in shops.
    Yeah, we were at a wedding in Scotland last week and observance was total.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    Since the government is changing strategy, accepting that herd immunity is unachievable and accepting that everyone is now going to get the virus sooner or later (see Dr Campbell’s latest few videos), mass testing is going to be abandoned soon, and measures such as masks no longer make any sense unless the NHS starts to approach ICU bed capacity again, which looks most unlikely.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Taz said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    SW Surrey is one of the most middle-class seats in the country if I remember correctly.
    Yes, it is. Archetypal Blue Wall, voted strongly Remain, few houses costing under £300K, and I see my rental of £1000/month as an amazing bargain. I was surprised the LibDems didn't come closer in 2019, but Jeremy Hunt is a good MP who projects a moderate image.
    Weren’t they close years ago and thigh tho they had a chance of getting Virginia Bottomley out as part of their decapitation plan for top Tories.
    Though the 'Decapitation Strategy' flopped abysmally. The only one they got in the end was Tim Collins (remember him?).
    He appeared in an extra on a Dr Who dvd. He was a fan of the show.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On NI I expect it to be a package to include all workng pensioners to pay full NI and the triple lock suspended for 2022

    Taken by itself it would be very brave and extremely unwise

    And I have been saying for weeks that a Labour poll lead this year is very possible

    Working pensioners are likely to be the poorer ones, with the wealthy sitting at home enjoying their pension and investment income.
    I am not sure that is so. My experience of working pensioners is more mixed, even perhaps the opposite. A lot of professional people, including a number of my colleagues, take their pension then return on reduced hours. My solicitor and accountant have done the same. Working pensioners are a mix of those that have to work, and those that enjoy their work.

    It was Ed Davey who abolished compulsory retirement, in one of his many astute policy decisions of what with time (and the notable exception over tuition fees) was in retrospect a golden period of good government under the Coalition.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On NI I expect it to be a package to include all workng pensioners to pay full NI and the triple lock suspended for 2022

    Taken by itself it would be very brave and extremely unwise

    And I have been saying for weeks that a Labour poll lead this year is very possible

    Working pensioners are likely to be the poorer ones, with the wealthy sitting at home enjoying their pension and investment income.
    Yes; many of the working pensioners I know are topping up their State pensions. I gave up working when I realised that continuing professional insurance, plus necessary registration plus income tax meant I was working until around May for for no reward to me.
    Just about halved the money I got.
    That’s true in my experience or my family. My dad and my stepdad both worked Part time as their pensions were not that great and they needed the extra income to top them up.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    edited September 2021
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    I was in Sainsbury’s at the Arnison in North Durham today, early morning mainly older people, and pretty much everyone was masked up there. I wonder if people still wear masks up here as in the last spike the north east went into it very quickly.
    My impression is that it is locally very lumpy. So all anecdotes can be true at once.
    Not disputing that at all. I did wonder if it was age or regional.
    still compulsory up here and most people wearing them in shops.
    Yeah, we were at a wedding in Scotland last week and observance was total.
    My daughter and son in law are at a wedding in Edinburgh today and there are no masks visible in her what's app posts including videos

    Mind you lots of kilts, pipes and just so traditional Scots wedding and it takes me back to ours in 1964
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,001
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On NI I expect it to be a package to include all workng pensioners to pay full NI and the triple lock suspended for 2022

    Taken by itself it would be very brave and extremely unwise

    And I have been saying for weeks that a Labour poll lead this year is very possible

    Working pensioners are likely to be the poorer ones, with the wealthy sitting at home enjoying their pension and investment income.
    Some unquestionably will but you seem to paint a very rosy picture of the retired and their income, especially those outside London and the south
    Net of housing costs, on average it is higher than for the average working person, as I said this morning.
    Is that really a surprising stat? Housing is one of the biggest expenses.
    It's one of those things that I'm sure people know, but perhaps without realising how enormous the effect is.

    Leaving aside the paying zero is very different to paying anything, once you take out a mortgage it kind of freezes your housing costs at whatever the prevailing prices were at that time. And then it gets inflated away.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On NI I expect it to be a package to include all workng pensioners to pay full NI and the triple lock suspended for 2022

    Taken by itself it would be very brave and extremely unwise

    And I have been saying for weeks that a Labour poll lead this year is very possible

    Working pensioners are likely to be the poorer ones, with the wealthy sitting at home enjoying their pension and investment income.
    I am not sure that is so. My experience of working pensioners is more mixed, even perhaps the opposite. A lot of professional people, including a number of my colleagues, take their pension then return on reduced hours. My solicitor and accountant have done the same. Working pensioners are a mix of those that have to work, and those that enjoy their work.

    It was Ed Davey who abolished compulsory retirement, in one of his many astute policy decisions of what with time (and the notable exception over tuition fees) was in retrospect a golden period of good government under the Coalition.
    Ed Davey? Surely I think you mean Steve Webb?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    IanB2 said:

    Since the government is changing strategy, accepting that herd immunity is unachievable and accepting that everyone is now going to get the virus sooner or later (see Dr Campbell’s latest few videos), mass testing is going to be abandoned soon, and measures such as masks no longer make any sense unless the NHS starts to approach ICU bed capacity again, which looks most unlikely.

    I don't think ICU capacity will be breached again, though having 50% tied up with covid (as at my Trust) will greatly reduce the amount of major heart, thoracic, upper GI cancer, vascular surgery being done. The surge capacity is also being maintained by starving other areas of personnel.

    I expect this to continue right through the autumn and into winter, with major effects on waiting times for major surgery. It is likely the waiting numbers will be fiddled by doing lots of smaller cases.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    IanB2 said:

    Since the government is changing strategy, accepting that herd immunity is unachievable and accepting that everyone is now going to get the virus sooner or later (see Dr Campbell’s latest few videos), mass testing is going to be abandoned soon, and measures such as masks no longer make any sense unless the NHS starts to approach ICU bed capacity again, which looks most unlikely.

    Depends what you mean by herd immunity.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Taz said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    SW Surrey is one of the most middle-class seats in the country if I remember correctly.
    Yes, it is. Archetypal Blue Wall, voted strongly Remain, few houses costing under £300K, and I see my rental of £1000/month as an amazing bargain. I was surprised the LibDems didn't come closer in 2019, but Jeremy Hunt is a good MP who projects a moderate image.
    Weren’t they close years ago and thigh tho they had a chance of getting Virginia Bottomley out as part of their decapitation plan for top Tories.
    Though the 'Decapitation Strategy' flopped abysmally. The only one they got in the end was Tim Collins (remember him?).
    Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    Interestingly, now the second-longest held Liberal Democrat seat and one of only two held continuously through the Coalition years until now - which tells you something about how bad the last three elections have been for them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On NI I expect it to be a package to include all workng pensioners to pay full NI and the triple lock suspended for 2022

    Taken by itself it would be very brave and extremely unwise

    And I have been saying for weeks that a Labour poll lead this year is very possible

    Working pensioners are likely to be the poorer ones, with the wealthy sitting at home enjoying their pension and investment income.
    I am not sure that is so. My experience of working pensioners is more mixed, even perhaps the opposite. A lot of professional people, including a number of my colleagues, take their pension then return on reduced hours. My solicitor and accountant have done the same. Working pensioners are a mix of those that have to work, and those that enjoy their work.

    It was Ed Davey who abolished compulsory retirement, in one of his many astute policy decisions of what with time (and the notable exception over tuition fees) was in retrospect a golden period of good government under the Coalition.
    Ed Davey? Surely I think you mean Steve Webb?
    Ed Davey was in charge of Business at the time, but Webb and Lamb were excellent ministers in the Coalition too.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On NI I expect it to be a package to include all workng pensioners to pay full NI and the triple lock suspended for 2022

    Taken by itself it would be very brave and extremely unwise

    And I have been saying for weeks that a Labour poll lead this year is very possible

    Working pensioners are likely to be the poorer ones, with the wealthy sitting at home enjoying their pension and investment income.
    I am not sure that is so. My experience of working pensioners is more mixed, even perhaps the opposite. A lot of professional people, including a number of my colleagues, take their pension then return on reduced hours. My solicitor and accountant have done the same. Working pensioners are a mix of those that have to work, and those that enjoy their work.

    It was Ed Davey who abolished compulsory retirement, in one of his many astute policy decisions of what with time (and the notable exception over tuition fees) was in retrospect a golden period of good government under the Coalition.
    The problem with abolishing compulsory retirement is that employers can no longer get rid of dead wood on high earnings.

    I know that not all in their 60s are like that but some are.

    This is also annoying for those of a younger generation who are doing the actual work but for less money.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    Fairliered said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Can you believe the state of this , how desperate was Sturgeon and her pals to stitch up Salmond. WTF is up with the state police also.


    Sorry, what ?

    Please tell me this is satire.
    Does not appear to be.
    Time will tell if that story holds water.
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19555109.iain-macwhirter-sturgeons-scotland-opening-bottle-crime/
    I'm unsure how seriously to take this story, given the following story on the newspaper's front page:
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19553879.snp-msp-raises-concerns-nhs-records-wrongly-state-one-jag/

    "How dare the NHS say I've only had one Jag? My garage is full of them..."

    What is a 'Coronavirus Jag', I wonder?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    rottenborough said:

    IanB2 said:

    Since the government is changing strategy, accepting that herd immunity is unachievable and accepting that everyone is now going to get the virus sooner or later (see Dr Campbell’s latest few videos), mass testing is going to be abandoned soon, and measures such as masks no longer make any sense unless the NHS starts to approach ICU bed capacity again, which looks most unlikely.

    Depends what you mean by herd immunity.
    The idea that some people wouldn’t get it, sheltered by the immunity of the herd once it reaches a critical level. The increasing transmissibility of each successive variant has shot this theory through. We’re all going to get it, now it’s just a question of timing. Testing the symptomless is now a waste of time, as are many of the precautions.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    JosiasJessop said:

    Fairliered said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Can you believe the state of this , how desperate was Sturgeon and her pals to stitch up Salmond. WTF is up with the state police also.


    Sorry, what ?

    Please tell me this is satire.
    Does not appear to be.
    Time will tell if that story holds water.
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19555109.iain-macwhirter-sturgeons-scotland-opening-bottle-crime/
    I'm unsure how seriously to take this story, given the following story on the newspaper's front page:
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19553879.snp-msp-raises-concerns-nhs-records-wrongly-state-one-jag/

    "How dare the NHS say I've only had one Jag? My garage is full of them..."

    What is a 'Coronavirus Jag', I wonder?
    Jag = jab. ;)
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    I was in Sainsbury’s at the Arnison in North Durham today, early morning mainly older people, and pretty much everyone was masked up there. I wonder if people still wear masks up here as in the last spike the north east went into it very quickly.
    My impression is that it is locally very lumpy. So all anecdotes can be true at once.
    Not disputing that at all. I did wonder if it was age or regional.
    still compulsory up here and most people wearing them in shops.
    I was in a 2 metre queue at the fish and chip shop just now, and a woman charged up behind me without her mask and virtually swore and said we are not still doing this nonsense, at a time when cases are rising quite quickly in this part of Wales
    That kind of thing is inevitable once the regulations forcing people to comply with Covid measures are removed. When it comes to masks and distancing, some of us think they're useless or even counter-productive, others are simply relieved to be shot of them, some are still feeling cautious and yet more are scared witless. FWIW, I'd say in the local supermarkets around here social distancing is over and mask use is down to about 50:50 amongst both customers and staff (and probably less than that when you take account of the twits who wear them as earrings and necklaces.)

    It'll be interesting to see how many of the remaining users are still going around in their masks in ten years' time. I suspect that Covid has caused lasting psychological injury to some people, and they'll always be frightened of disease in a way they weren't before.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    edited September 2021
    OT USAF software chief quits and lambasts American (and British) practice of appointing unqualified officers to run projects.

    Please stop putting a Major or Lt Col. (despite their devotion, exceptional attitude, and culture) in charge of ICAM, Zero Trust or Cloud for 1 to 4 million users when they have no previous experience in that field – we are setting up critical infrastructure to fail. We would not put a pilot in the cockpit without extensive flight training; why would we expect someone with no IT experience to be close to successful? They do not know what to execute on or what to prioritize which leads to endless risk reduction efforts and diluted focus.
    Original linkedin post:
    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/time-say-goodbye-nicolas-m-chaillan/

    The Register coverage, including the British angle:
    ... In the British armed forces mid-ranking officers are posted, regardless of qualifications or professional experience, to manage equipment-purchasing projects for the Ministry of Defence. These postings are of fixed length and last for two years, meaning any project that takes more than two years has the potential to end up turning into a hugely expensive and unproductive mess. The origin of this policy was a 1980s corruption scandal where a civil servant overseeing a long-term MoD contract was caught accepting bribes; to prevent it happening again, senior personnel decided to implement the two-year-posting policy.
    https://www.theregister.com/2021/09/03/usaf_chief_software_officer_quits_angry_post/

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    IanB2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    IanB2 said:

    Since the government is changing strategy, accepting that herd immunity is unachievable and accepting that everyone is now going to get the virus sooner or later (see Dr Campbell’s latest few videos), mass testing is going to be abandoned soon, and measures such as masks no longer make any sense unless the NHS starts to approach ICU bed capacity again, which looks most unlikely.

    Depends what you mean by herd immunity.
    The idea that some people wouldn’t get it, sheltered by the immunity of the herd once it reaches a critical level. The increasing transmissibility of each successive variant has shot this theory through. We’re all going to get it, now it’s just a question of timing. Testing the symptomless is now a waste of time, as are many of the precautions.
    I wouldn't quite go so far, but yes, immunisations clearly do not prevent spread of Delta, so that hope of Herd Immunity is gone.

    It doesn't necessarily justify abandoning all precautions though. At times of high prevalence (1 in 70 in England, likely higher in the socially active groups), it is still worth being cautious. Procrastination in these things is a good thing.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    RobD said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Fairliered said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Can you believe the state of this , how desperate was Sturgeon and her pals to stitch up Salmond. WTF is up with the state police also.


    Sorry, what ?

    Please tell me this is satire.
    Does not appear to be.
    Time will tell if that story holds water.
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19555109.iain-macwhirter-sturgeons-scotland-opening-bottle-crime/
    I'm unsure how seriously to take this story, given the following story on the newspaper's front page:
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19553879.snp-msp-raises-concerns-nhs-records-wrongly-state-one-jag/

    "How dare the NHS say I've only had one Jag? My garage is full of them..."

    What is a 'Coronavirus Jag', I wonder?
    Jag = jab. ;)
    Wow. Really? I never guessed. I posted that thinking that this MSP has complained that the NHS had not acknowledged his fleet of Jags. It never occurred to me that the Herald's 'journalism' was so poor that a stupid error repeated multiple times in the same story would get through to publication.

    Thanks for clarifying. ;)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320
    ydoethur said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Taz said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    SW Surrey is one of the most middle-class seats in the country if I remember correctly.
    Yes, it is. Archetypal Blue Wall, voted strongly Remain, few houses costing under £300K, and I see my rental of £1000/month as an amazing bargain. I was surprised the LibDems didn't come closer in 2019, but Jeremy Hunt is a good MP who projects a moderate image.
    Weren’t they close years ago and thigh tho they had a chance of getting Virginia Bottomley out as part of their decapitation plan for top Tories.
    Though the 'Decapitation Strategy' flopped abysmally. The only one they got in the end was Tim Collins (remember him?).
    Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    Interestingly, now the second-longest held Liberal Democrat seat and one of only two held continuously through the Coalition years until now - which tells you something about how bad the last three elections have been for them.
    And abolished too. Which doesn’t get the next off to a flier.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    JosiasJessop said:

    Fairliered said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Can you believe the state of this , how desperate was Sturgeon and her pals to stitch up Salmond. WTF is up with the state police also.


    Sorry, what ?

    Please tell me this is satire.
    Does not appear to be.
    Time will tell if that story holds water.
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19555109.iain-macwhirter-sturgeons-scotland-opening-bottle-crime/
    I'm unsure how seriously to take this story, given the following story on the newspaper's front page:
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19553879.snp-msp-raises-concerns-nhs-records-wrongly-state-one-jag/

    "How dare the NHS say I've only had one Jag? My garage is full of them..."

    What is a 'Coronavirus Jag', I wonder?
    Jag is the Scots word for jab. Some of our Scots PBers have used it here.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    JosiasJessop said:

    RobD said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Fairliered said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Can you believe the state of this , how desperate was Sturgeon and her pals to stitch up Salmond. WTF is up with the state police also.


    Sorry, what ?

    Please tell me this is satire.
    Does not appear to be.
    Time will tell if that story holds water.
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19555109.iain-macwhirter-sturgeons-scotland-opening-bottle-crime/
    I'm unsure how seriously to take this story, given the following story on the newspaper's front page:
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19553879.snp-msp-raises-concerns-nhs-records-wrongly-state-one-jag/

    "How dare the NHS say I've only had one Jag? My garage is full of them..."

    What is a 'Coronavirus Jag', I wonder?
    Jag = jab. ;)
    Wow. Really? I never guessed. I posted that thinking that this MSP has complained that the NHS had not acknowledged his fleet of Jags. It never occurred to me that the Herald's 'journalism' was so poor that a stupid error repeated multiple times in the same story would get through to publication.

    Thanks for clarifying. ;)
    My sarcasm meter is twitching a bit here. :smiley:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    pigeon said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Floater said:

    I have really noticed over the last week how mask wearing in supermarkets is falling away big time.

    Last visit was 20% masked 80% not

    I was in Sainsbury today here in Godalming - literally only one person not wearing a mask, out of maybe 100 that I saw. But I'm sure the comments are right that it will fall away quickly if it starts to fall.
    I was in Sainsbury’s at the Arnison in North Durham today, early morning mainly older people, and pretty much everyone was masked up there. I wonder if people still wear masks up here as in the last spike the north east went into it very quickly.
    My impression is that it is locally very lumpy. So all anecdotes can be true at once.
    Not disputing that at all. I did wonder if it was age or regional.
    still compulsory up here and most people wearing them in shops.
    I was in a 2 metre queue at the fish and chip shop just now, and a woman charged up behind me without her mask and virtually swore and said we are not still doing this nonsense, at a time when cases are rising quite quickly in this part of Wales
    That kind of thing is inevitable once the regulations forcing people to comply with Covid measures are removed. When it comes to masks and distancing, some of us think they're useless or even counter-productive, others are simply relieved to be shot of them, some are still feeling cautious and yet more are scared witless. FWIW, I'd say in the local supermarkets around here social distancing is over and mask use is down to about 50:50 amongst both customers and staff (and probably less than that when you take account of the twits who wear them as earrings and necklaces.)

    It'll be interesting to see how many of the remaining users are still going around in their masks in ten years' time. I suspect that Covid has caused lasting psychological injury to some people, and they'll always be frightened of disease in a way they weren't before.
    Do you think that the fish and chip queue moves faster if the customers line up a foot rather than 6 feet apart?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Fairliered said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Can you believe the state of this , how desperate was Sturgeon and her pals to stitch up Salmond. WTF is up with the state police also.


    Sorry, what ?

    Please tell me this is satire.
    Does not appear to be.
    Time will tell if that story holds water.
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19555109.iain-macwhirter-sturgeons-scotland-opening-bottle-crime/
    I'm unsure how seriously to take this story, given the following story on the newspaper's front page:
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19553879.snp-msp-raises-concerns-nhs-records-wrongly-state-one-jag/

    "How dare the NHS say I've only had one Jag? My garage is full of them..."

    What is a 'Coronavirus Jag', I wonder?
    Jag is the Scots word for jab. Some of our Scots PBers have used it here.
    Partick THISTLE!!
    I get it now. And I diid know what a jag was...slow.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    Fairliered said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Can you believe the state of this , how desperate was Sturgeon and her pals to stitch up Salmond. WTF is up with the state police also.


    Sorry, what ?

    Please tell me this is satire.
    Does not appear to be.
    Time will tell if that story holds water.
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19555109.iain-macwhirter-sturgeons-scotland-opening-bottle-crime/
    It is a bizarre story, but in what way is Sturgeon to blame for the polices decision to bring charges?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Fairliered said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Can you believe the state of this , how desperate was Sturgeon and her pals to stitch up Salmond. WTF is up with the state police also.


    Sorry, what ?

    Please tell me this is satire.
    Does not appear to be.
    Time will tell if that story holds water.
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19555109.iain-macwhirter-sturgeons-scotland-opening-bottle-crime/
    I'm unsure how seriously to take this story, given the following story on the newspaper's front page:
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19553879.snp-msp-raises-concerns-nhs-records-wrongly-state-one-jag/

    "How dare the NHS say I've only had one Jag? My garage is full of them..."

    What is a 'Coronavirus Jag', I wonder?
    Jag is the Scots word for jab. Some of our Scots PBers have used it here.
    Okay, I didn't know that. Thanks.

    Feel a little silly now ...

    (Now I think about it; I think I've seen 'jag' used in a Rebus book wrt an injection. I'd assumed it was a typo.)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    JosiasJessop said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Fairliered said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Can you believe the state of this , how desperate was Sturgeon and her pals to stitch up Salmond. WTF is up with the state police also.


    Sorry, what ?

    Please tell me this is satire.
    Does not appear to be.
    Time will tell if that story holds water.
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19555109.iain-macwhirter-sturgeons-scotland-opening-bottle-crime/
    I'm unsure how seriously to take this story, given the following story on the newspaper's front page:
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19553879.snp-msp-raises-concerns-nhs-records-wrongly-state-one-jag/

    "How dare the NHS say I've only had one Jag? My garage is full of them..."

    What is a 'Coronavirus Jag', I wonder?
    Jag is the Scots word for jab. Some of our Scots PBers have used it here.
    Okay, I didn't know that. Thanks.

    Feel a little silly now ...

    (Now I think about it; I think I've seen 'jag' used in a Rebus book wrt an injection. I'd assumed it was a typo.)
    Yeah, that is what I meant, not that it was a typo by the newspaper.
This discussion has been closed.