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2 Samuel 22:50 applies to the British Polling Council – politicalbetting.com

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  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,827

    I see the Tory party has decided to mollycoddle pensioners again at the expense of working people.

    My patience is being sorely tested.

    A tax on the working alone to pay for the past excesses of the retired is just not on. At least put it on income tax rather than NI. Increasingly hard to see any reason for anyone under about 55 to vote Tory.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,573

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. 1000, *sighs and deletes lengthy and fascinating post regarding the parentage of the Heracles betrayed by Polyperchon to Cassander during the Diadochi era*

    You can’t libel the dead.
    Yeah, but we can damn will try...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,573

    Australia says it has secured an extra four million doses of the Pfizer vaccine from the UK in a swap deal.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-58431190.amp

    Are we getting Kylie?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,827
    rcs1000 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. 1000, *sighs and deletes lengthy and fascinating post regarding the parentage of the Heracles betrayed by Polyperchon to Cassander during the Diadochi era*

    You can’t libel the dead.
    Yeah, but we can damn will try...
    I didn’t know this rule. Is that why all was quiet in the press about Jim Sav with the floodgates open not long after he died?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821

    Australia says it has secured an extra four million doses of the Pfizer vaccine from the UK in a swap deal.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-58431190.amp

    Have we swapped them for Kylie?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821

    Australia says it has secured an extra four million doses of the Pfizer vaccine from the UK in a swap deal.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-58431190.amp

    Have we swapped them for Kylie?
    Damn too late. Copyright RCS.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 903
    eek said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    So how does Boris plan differ from May’s Dementia Tax? The 60K cap rather than 100K? What does that mean in practice when 60K needs to be found for care from your means tested assets before the tax rise, 2p says Javid, steps in and helps?

    The salient point probably isn’t the tax rise but how a cap works? The original report said 50k, Later May said 100K, the smaller figure helps those in care, the larger the government coffers?

    These details trailed to the press don’t seem to be supported/defended by anyone posting here.

    They did this weeks ago, to luke warm response, and delayed it. How many times can they keep doing that?
    I've already tonight seen a number of tweets that point out that because it's on NI not income tax this is another generational tax grab where younger people are being expected to pay for older people.

    That is going to hurt Boris as much as the dementia tax hurt May.

    The only solution to this problem was to kick it into the long ish grass via a Royal commission with the end result to be reported on and implemented at the beginning of the next Parliament after the next General Election.
    The most politically expedient solution for the Government would actually be to slash elderly care contributions to zero and tell the working age population to stump up the lot. If you're not going to make a concerted effort to get the elderly to pay for their own care then you might as well not bother, because you get screaming about unfairness from the entire electorate rather than just half of it.

    With a care cost cap, the stickbangers and their heirs will moan like fury at being made to part with anything, and the working age population gets little relief from being made to part with "only" the vast bulk of the ongoing cost of the elderly (the immense combined burden of pensions and healthcare, as well as social care,) rather than the whole lot.

    The old are the Tory core vote. The Government might as well abandon any pretence of being interested in anyone else and go all out to buy them off.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,016
    ECDC in favour of “Third doses” (for the immunosuppressed) but not yet in favour of “Booster doses” (for the general population who have completed a course)

    https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/covid-19-public-health-considerations-additional-vaccine-doses
  • I see the Tory party has decided to mollycoddle pensioners again at the expense of working people.

    My patience is being sorely tested.

    If pensioners don't get the rise it will be at the expense of working people anyway as low to middle income workers will get absolutely stuffed by design.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    moonshine said:

    I see the Tory party has decided to mollycoddle pensioners again at the expense of working people.

    My patience is being sorely tested.

    A tax on the working alone to pay for the past excesses of the retired is just not on. At least put it on income tax rather than NI. Increasingly hard to see any reason for anyone under about 55 to vote Tory.
    Isnt council tax one of the hardest for wealthy pensioners to avoid? And Councils are paying for the social care. So get that escalating. Shouldn't fall disproportionately on the young and could be slipped in under the radar without, I think, breaking any manifesto promises.

    And if the council have any cash spare, and enough drivers, they could empty our bins a bit more often.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Everyone's favourite piece of shit scum bag family the Sacklers are being given complete immunity as part of the OxyContin settlement.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/09/billionaire-sacklers-granted-lifetime-legal-immunity-in-opioid-settlement/

    I said prior to the election that i wondered if the deal was to generate feel good headlines for Trump dealing with the Opioid crisis and it does rather seem to be a hell of a weak settlement overall.

    A few years ago I was approached to become CFO of Mundipharma, their ex US business. Wasn’t comfortable with the risk and approach (Purdue had a shitty reputation in the industry). Glad I passed!
    I'm glad you did too!
    Yes… it would have been less fun over the last few years. Although I am rather looking forward to my latest acquisition:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Empire-Pain-History-Sackler-Dynasty/dp/1529062489
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    I wonder if the income tax is move is an attempt to undermine Sunak.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 940
    edited September 3
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Australia Traded Away Too Much Liberty
    How long can a democracy maintain emergency restrictions and still call itself a free country?
    By Conor Friedersdorf"

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/pandemic-australia-still-liberal-democracy/619940/


    Quote:

    "Intrastate travel within Australia is also severely restricted. And the government of South Australia, one of the country’s six states, developed and is now testing an app as Orwellian as any in the free world to enforce its quarantine rules. People in South Australia will be forced to download an app that combines facial recognition and geolocation. The state will text them at random times, and thereafter they will have 15 minutes to take a picture of their face in the location where they are supposed to be. Should they fail, the local police department will be sent to follow up in person. “We don’t tell them how often or when, on a random basis they have to reply within 15 minutes,” Premier Steven Marshall explained. “I think every South Australian should feel pretty proud that we are the national pilot for the home-based quarantine app.”"

    It's a fascinating question, to which I don't know the answer.

    Imagine that there was no Covid vaccine. But normal life could return 85% of the time: no masks, no social distancing, etc.

    Here's the thing: when a case is discovered everything is locked down perhaps for weeks at a time. And it's a complete lockdown - no leaving the house for exercise, no going to the store, no traveling to a friend's or another city. You are - for one week every couple of months - a prisoner.

    But the rest of the time you're free.

    Which is better? Endless petty restrictions, or draconian but temporary ones?

    Fortunately, vaccines have offered us a way out. But if you were in Oz, and vaccine availability was ... modest ..., which would you choose?
    I have rather lost track of all this but isn't that something like what they are doing in China?

    As I understand it, the problem is that whilst this worked at earlier points in the COVID era; even with ultra lockdowns delta isn't controllable.

    To answer your question though, I would choose extreme lockdowns and retention of liberty; as the endless petty restrictions that we currently have are probably more harmful for liberty in the long run.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,016
    A violent extremist who stabbed and injured six people in an Auckland supermarket has been shot dead by police, authorities in New Zealand said.

    https://www.gbnews.uk/news/violent-extremist-shot-dead-by-police-after-new-zealand-supermarket-attack/123309
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Australia Traded Away Too Much Liberty
    How long can a democracy maintain emergency restrictions and still call itself a free country?
    By Conor Friedersdorf"

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/pandemic-australia-still-liberal-democracy/619940/


    Quote:

    "Intrastate travel within Australia is also severely restricted. And the government of South Australia, one of the country’s six states, developed and is now testing an app as Orwellian as any in the free world to enforce its quarantine rules. People in South Australia will be forced to download an app that combines facial recognition and geolocation. The state will text them at random times, and thereafter they will have 15 minutes to take a picture of their face in the location where they are supposed to be. Should they fail, the local police department will be sent to follow up in person. “We don’t tell them how often or when, on a random basis they have to reply within 15 minutes,” Premier Steven Marshall explained. “I think every South Australian should feel pretty proud that we are the national pilot for the home-based quarantine app.”"

    It's a fascinating question, to which I don't know the answer.

    Imagine that there was no Covid vaccine. But normal life could return 85% of the time: no masks, no social distancing, etc.

    Here's the thing: when a case is discovered everything is locked down perhaps for weeks at a time. And it's a complete lockdown - no leaving the house for exercise, no going to the store, no traveling to a friend's or another city. You are - for one week every couple of months - a prisoner.

    But the rest of the time you're free.

    Which is better? Endless petty restrictions, or draconian but temporary ones?

    Fortunately, vaccines have offered us a way out. But if you were in Oz, and vaccine availability was ... modest ..., which would you choose?
    There are plenty of vaccines available in Oz. Just no one wants to take CSL/AZ
    AstraZeneca has an horrific reputation out there in the world. Their board must seriously regret ever getting involved with Oxford University. It is not as though vaccines was one of their core competencies, and now the brand has taken a hit.
    And entirely driven by politics. It’s a seriously good vaccine
    That's as maybe, but the initial trial publication was a mess, and some of of the post approval surveillance too. Indeed, is AZ allowed in America yet?

    The problem comes from wrapping it in the flag rather than treating it with scientific objectivity, on both pro and anti sides.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607
    FWIW:

    Park (Calderdale) by-election result:

    LAB: 82.9% (+26.1)
    CON: 8.9% (+3.9)
    GRN: 5.7% (+2.8)
    LDEM: 2.5% (+2.5)

    Labour HOLD.

    No Ind (-35.3) as prev.

    Chgs. w/ 2018
    https://t.co/wLrErNY7eo
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,573
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Australia Traded Away Too Much Liberty
    How long can a democracy maintain emergency restrictions and still call itself a free country?
    By Conor Friedersdorf"

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/pandemic-australia-still-liberal-democracy/619940/


    Quote:

    "Intrastate travel within Australia is also severely restricted. And the government of South Australia, one of the country’s six states, developed and is now testing an app as Orwellian as any in the free world to enforce its quarantine rules. People in South Australia will be forced to download an app that combines facial recognition and geolocation. The state will text them at random times, and thereafter they will have 15 minutes to take a picture of their face in the location where they are supposed to be. Should they fail, the local police department will be sent to follow up in person. “We don’t tell them how often or when, on a random basis they have to reply within 15 minutes,” Premier Steven Marshall explained. “I think every South Australian should feel pretty proud that we are the national pilot for the home-based quarantine app.”"

    It's a fascinating question, to which I don't know the answer.

    Imagine that there was no Covid vaccine. But normal life could return 85% of the time: no masks, no social distancing, etc.

    Here's the thing: when a case is discovered everything is locked down perhaps for weeks at a time. And it's a complete lockdown - no leaving the house for exercise, no going to the store, no traveling to a friend's or another city. You are - for one week every couple of months - a prisoner.

    But the rest of the time you're free.

    Which is better? Endless petty restrictions, or draconian but temporary ones?

    Fortunately, vaccines have offered us a way out. But if you were in Oz, and vaccine availability was ... modest ..., which would you choose?
    There are plenty of vaccines available in Oz. Just no one wants to take CSL/AZ
    AstraZeneca has an horrific reputation out there in the world. Their board must seriously regret ever getting involved with Oxford University. It is not as though vaccines was one of their core competencies, and now the brand has taken a hit.
    And entirely driven by politics. It’s a seriously good vaccine
    They were also inexperienced at vaccine approval, and made a number of unforced errors: AZ is still unapproved in both the US and Switzerland.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    Foxy said:

    FWIW:

    Park (Calderdale) by-election result:

    LAB: 82.9% (+26.1)
    CON: 8.9% (+3.9)
    GRN: 5.7% (+2.8)
    LDEM: 2.5% (+2.5)

    Labour HOLD.

    No Ind (-35.3) as prev.

    Chgs. w/ 2018
    https://t.co/wLrErNY7eo

    Disappointed nobody unbanned to see the great Conservative result in this.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    moonshine said:

    I see the Tory party has decided to mollycoddle pensioners again at the expense of working people.

    My patience is being sorely tested.

    A tax on the working alone to pay for the past excesses of the retired is just not on. At least put it on income tax rather than NI. Increasingly hard to see any reason for anyone under about 55 to vote Tory.
    The pensioners must pay too and, again, I think ones housing equity and overall wealth should be on the table to help pay for it, along with a private insurance market up to the £50k-£80k cap.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,554
    Adam Tooze: Has Covid ended the neoliberal era?

    Worth a read:

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/sep/02/covid-and-the-crisis-of-neoliberalism
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    There's a big opportunity for Labour here to make themselves the party of labour (i.e. working people) in response to this proposal, and thus resolidify their brand. In fact, I wish they would as it would force the Government to respond.

    But, I expect Starmer to fumble loading his arrow into his bow, and then fire-off a weak and wobbly one up into the sky, and miss..
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607

    moonshine said:

    I see the Tory party has decided to mollycoddle pensioners again at the expense of working people.

    My patience is being sorely tested.

    A tax on the working alone to pay for the past excesses of the retired is just not on. At least put it on income tax rather than NI. Increasingly hard to see any reason for anyone under about 55 to vote Tory.
    Isnt council tax one of the hardest for wealthy pensioners to avoid? And Councils are paying for the social care. So get that escalating. Shouldn't fall disproportionately on the young and could be slipped in under the radar without, I think, breaking any manifesto promises.

    And if the council have any cash spare, and enough drivers, they could empty our bins a bit more often.
    Council Tax is a better idea, though would bring the need for rebanding, rather than based on 30 year old valuations.

    The root problem though is trying to introduce a system to preserve large inheritances at the expense of working tax-payers. I write as someone who has seen his MiL fund 2 years of social care via the sale of her bungalow. To me that seems right and proper. That is what she and my late FiL saved for. It would be wrong to tax low income workers to preserve a windfall inheritance for Mrs Foxy and her sister.
  • Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Australia Traded Away Too Much Liberty
    How long can a democracy maintain emergency restrictions and still call itself a free country?
    By Conor Friedersdorf"

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/pandemic-australia-still-liberal-democracy/619940/


    Quote:

    "Intrastate travel within Australia is also severely restricted. And the government of South Australia, one of the country’s six states, developed and is now testing an app as Orwellian as any in the free world to enforce its quarantine rules. People in South Australia will be forced to download an app that combines facial recognition and geolocation. The state will text them at random times, and thereafter they will have 15 minutes to take a picture of their face in the location where they are supposed to be. Should they fail, the local police department will be sent to follow up in person. “We don’t tell them how often or when, on a random basis they have to reply within 15 minutes,” Premier Steven Marshall explained. “I think every South Australian should feel pretty proud that we are the national pilot for the home-based quarantine app.”"

    It's a fascinating question, to which I don't know the answer.

    Imagine that there was no Covid vaccine. But normal life could return 85% of the time: no masks, no social distancing, etc.

    Here's the thing: when a case is discovered everything is locked down perhaps for weeks at a time. And it's a complete lockdown - no leaving the house for exercise, no going to the store, no traveling to a friend's or another city. You are - for one week every couple of months - a prisoner.

    But the rest of the time you're free.

    Which is better? Endless petty restrictions, or draconian but temporary ones?

    Fortunately, vaccines have offered us a way out. But if you were in Oz, and vaccine availability was ... modest ..., which would you choose?
    There are plenty of vaccines available in Oz. Just no one wants to take CSL/AZ
    AstraZeneca has an horrific reputation out there in the world. Their board must seriously regret ever getting involved with Oxford University. It is not as though vaccines was one of their core competencies, and now the brand has taken a hit.
    And entirely driven by politics. It’s a seriously good vaccine
    That's as maybe, but the initial trial publication was a mess, and some of of the post approval surveillance too. Indeed, is AZ allowed in America yet?

    The problem comes from wrapping it in the flag rather than treating it with scientific objectivity, on both pro and anti sides.
    No. The FDA decided that since they had Moderna and Pfizer there was no need to grant AZ an emergency approval. It’s purely coincidental their decision benefited two US companies.

    (I have very little time for the corruption we see in American capitalism)
    How about for the corruption self-evident in American "democracy"?

    America is a great country with some wonderful people. But despite the shared language and shared pop culture we are very very different from them in so many ways.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 940

    I see the Tory party has decided to mollycoddle pensioners again at the expense of working people.

    My patience is being sorely tested.

    The conservative just do what they need to do to stay in power - that's why they are the pensioners party, they are more reliable supporters than the woke young voters.

    Demographically the hike is actually a war on more affluent working people in the south east on high wages, who pay proportionally more national insurance.

    If you are affected by the hike it is really a good argument to structure your affairs in such a way that you pay as little tax as possible, which can really be achieved by self employment.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,211
    edited September 3

    Australia says it has secured an extra four million doses of the Pfizer vaccine from the UK in a swap deal.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-58431190.amp

    Have we swapped them for Kylie?
    We don’t want Kylie, it’s Marnus Labushagne we should be asking for.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,016
    4 million doses of hope.

    I was pleased to sign a win-win deal last night with my friend @sajidjavid
    to support each other in the uptake of lifesaving COVID-19 vaccines.

    To all our British friends — especially @nadhimzahawi, @BorisJohnson and @DominicRaab — thank you.


    https://twitter.com/AusHCUK/status/1433668950873845783?s=20
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,231
    edited September 3

    Foxy said:

    FWIW:

    Park (Calderdale) by-election result:

    LAB: 82.9% (+26.1)
    CON: 8.9% (+3.9)
    GRN: 5.7% (+2.8)
    LDEM: 2.5% (+2.5)

    Labour HOLD.

    No Ind (-35.3) as prev.

    Chgs. w/ 2018
    https://t.co/wLrErNY7eo

    Disappointed nobody unbanned to see the great Conservative result in this.
    Morning everyone. 11 deg today and grey again.

    Who has been banned? No-one from Essex, I hope.

    Incidentally, does HYUFD realise that Churchill was a Liberal at one time, and indeed a senior minister in a Liberal cabinet?
  • eekeek Posts: 15,852
    darkage said:

    I see the Tory party has decided to mollycoddle pensioners again at the expense of working people.

    My patience is being sorely tested.

    The conservative just do what they need to do to stay in power - that's why they are the pensioners party, they are more reliable supporters than the woke young voters.

    Demographically the hike is actually a war on more affluent working people in the south east on high wages, who pay proportionally more national insurance.

    If you are affected by the hike it is really a good argument to structure your affairs in such a way that you pay as little tax as possible, which can really be achieved by self employment.

    Not quite it's a war on those who earn high wages but are not still working at retirement age.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,211
    edited September 3

    Foxy said:

    FWIW:

    Park (Calderdale) by-election result:

    LAB: 82.9% (+26.1)
    CON: 8.9% (+3.9)
    GRN: 5.7% (+2.8)
    LDEM: 2.5% (+2.5)

    Labour HOLD.

    No Ind (-35.3) as prev.

    Chgs. w/ 2018
    https://t.co/wLrErNY7eo

    Disappointed nobody unbanned to see the great Conservative result in this.
    Morning everyone. 11 deg today and grey again.

    Who has been banned? No-one from Essex, I hope.

    Incidentally, does HYUFD realise that Churchill was a Liberal at one time, and indeed a senior minister in a Liberal cabinet.
    And indeed spent the whole of 1903-04 accusing his fellow Unionists of being all sorts of things.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,554

    Foxy said:

    FWIW:

    Park (Calderdale) by-election result:

    LAB: 82.9% (+26.1)
    CON: 8.9% (+3.9)
    GRN: 5.7% (+2.8)
    LDEM: 2.5% (+2.5)

    Labour HOLD.

    No Ind (-35.3) as prev.

    Chgs. w/ 2018
    https://t.co/wLrErNY7eo

    Disappointed nobody unbanned to see the great Conservative result in this.
    Morning everyone. 11 deg today and grey again.

    Who has been banned? No-one from Essex, I hope.

    Incidentally, does HYUFD realise that Churchill was a Liberal at one time, and indeed a senior minister in a Liberal cabinet?
    14C and sunny here, with a fine day in prospect.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319

    We need to get on with it now. Booster jabs asap. Or we are up to 1,000 deaths a day by Oct. Sort it out Sajid.
    Do you ever tire of making hyperbolic predictions? Your track record is beyond shit, worse even than Pagel’s.
    Hope I'm wrong. But it's rising everywhere. Time to take extra care 👿
    What is rising? Covid positives are actually falling slightly.

    But really that’s not the point. The point is that you keep making these attention-seeking predictions, despite the fact that thus far none of your hysterical forecasts have materialised.

    1000 deaths a day is > 5 x what we have now - with only twenty eight days to go.

    Seems highly unlikely.

    It's more like 9-10 times. Death reporting is very lumpy. If you look at the by death date we've just crept over 100 on the moving average, the by reporting day hit 200 because of the recent bank holiday.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654

    I see the Tory party has decided to mollycoddle pensioners again at the expense of working people.

    My patience is being sorely tested.

    How much will we get?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,231
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    FWIW:

    Park (Calderdale) by-election result:

    LAB: 82.9% (+26.1)
    CON: 8.9% (+3.9)
    GRN: 5.7% (+2.8)
    LDEM: 2.5% (+2.5)

    Labour HOLD.

    No Ind (-35.3) as prev.

    Chgs. w/ 2018
    https://t.co/wLrErNY7eo

    Disappointed nobody unbanned to see the great Conservative result in this.
    Morning everyone. 11 deg today and grey again.

    Who has been banned? No-one from Essex, I hope.

    Incidentally, does HYUFD realise that Churchill was a Liberal at one time, and indeed a senior minister in a Liberal cabinet?
    14C and sunny here, with a fine day in prospect.
    According to the BBC forecast we can expect some sunny intervals later.

    IIRC, you're not in UK at the moment?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,915



    However, does anyone share my fear that the might of the earth's climate changes are so great that mankind will not be able to mitigate it, no matter how it is approached

    Yes. It can't be a surprise though. The Greens have been saying this for decades but you all found it easier to contemplate the end of the world rather than the end of capitalism.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    FWIW:

    Park (Calderdale) by-election result:

    LAB: 82.9% (+26.1)
    CON: 8.9% (+3.9)
    GRN: 5.7% (+2.8)
    LDEM: 2.5% (+2.5)

    Labour HOLD.

    No Ind (-35.3) as prev.

    Chgs. w/ 2018
    https://t.co/wLrErNY7eo

    Disappointed nobody unbanned to see the great Conservative result in this.
    Morning everyone. 11 deg today and grey again.

    Who has been banned? No-one from Essex, I hope.

    Incidentally, does HYUFD realise that Churchill was a Liberal at one time, and indeed a senior minister in a Liberal cabinet?
    14C and sunny here, with a fine day in prospect.
    Back to the mainland for me today, but should be a nice trip on the Red Funnel.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,016
    Here's my attempt to explain the head-spinning array of coalition possibilities now confronting German voters. (Many thanks to @CW_PoWi, whose insights extended far beyond Game of Thrones similes.)



    https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1433678413802483748?s=20
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    New Infection Survey comes out today. Will have infection estimates for week ending 27th of August.

    Last week was
    England: 1-in-70
    Scotland: 1-in-140

    Bets for this week?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    @FrancisUrquhart

    Just read some notes of Prof Harnden’s comments yesterday re: JCVI delay which seem very reasonable

    - waiting for results of COV-Boost study so they know whether (and how) to mix and match vaccines
    - Timing: there is a window after you boost when you can’t boost again. So if you boost before it is necessary you don’t get much upside but you create a window where they might be vulnerable to a new variant
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,573

    Here's my attempt to explain the head-spinning array of coalition possibilities now confronting German voters. (Many thanks to @CW_PoWi, whose insights extended far beyond Game of Thrones similes.)



    https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1433678413802483748?s=20

    So they have CDU + Green as an option, but not SPD + Green. How odd.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,573
    Charles said:

    @FrancisUrquhart

    Just read some notes of Prof Harnden’s comments yesterday re: JCVI delay which seem very reasonable

    - waiting for results of COV-Boost study so they know whether (and how) to mix and match vaccines
    - Timing: there is a window after you boost when you can’t boost again. So if you boost before it is necessary you don’t get much upside but you create a window where they might be vulnerable to a new variant

    Re the second point: while I get that there are diminishing marginal efficiencies for boosting with the same vaccine, is that true for mixing and matching?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Australia Traded Away Too Much Liberty
    How long can a democracy maintain emergency restrictions and still call itself a free country?
    By Conor Friedersdorf"

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/pandemic-australia-still-liberal-democracy/619940/


    Quote:

    "Intrastate travel within Australia is also severely restricted. And the government of South Australia, one of the country’s six states, developed and is now testing an app as Orwellian as any in the free world to enforce its quarantine rules. People in South Australia will be forced to download an app that combines facial recognition and geolocation. The state will text them at random times, and thereafter they will have 15 minutes to take a picture of their face in the location where they are supposed to be. Should they fail, the local police department will be sent to follow up in person. “We don’t tell them how often or when, on a random basis they have to reply within 15 minutes,” Premier Steven Marshall explained. “I think every South Australian should feel pretty proud that we are the national pilot for the home-based quarantine app.”"

    It's a fascinating question, to which I don't know the answer.

    Imagine that there was no Covid vaccine. But normal life could return 85% of the time: no masks, no social distancing, etc.

    Here's the thing: when a case is discovered everything is locked down perhaps for weeks at a time. And it's a complete lockdown - no leaving the house for exercise, no going to the store, no traveling to a friend's or another city. You are - for one week every couple of months - a prisoner.

    But the rest of the time you're free.

    Which is better? Endless petty restrictions, or draconian but temporary ones?

    Fortunately, vaccines have offered us a way out. But if you were in Oz, and vaccine availability was ... modest ..., which would you choose?
    There are plenty of vaccines available in Oz. Just no one wants to take CSL/AZ
    AstraZeneca has an horrific reputation out there in the world. Their board must seriously regret ever getting involved with Oxford University. It is not as though vaccines was one of their core competencies, and now the brand has taken a hit.
    And entirely driven by politics. It’s a seriously good vaccine
    That's as maybe, but the initial trial publication was a mess, and some of of the post approval surveillance too. Indeed, is AZ allowed in America yet?

    The problem comes from wrapping it in the flag rather than treating it with scientific objectivity, on both pro and anti sides.
    No. The FDA decided that since they had Moderna and Pfizer there was no need to grant AZ an emergency approval. It’s purely coincidental their decision benefited two US companies.

    (I have very little time for the corruption we see in American capitalism)
    How about for the corruption self-evident in American "democracy"?

    America is a great country with some wonderful people. But despite the shared language and shared pop culture we are very very different from them in so many ways.
    Indeed. The openness to gerrymandering, to restricting the number of polling stations etc is concerning. Similarly this Texas law is just too clever by half

    The fundamental problem is that the US follows the letter of the law while the UK hangs on to a spirit of the law approach
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,554
    edited September 3

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    FWIW:

    Park (Calderdale) by-election result:

    LAB: 82.9% (+26.1)
    CON: 8.9% (+3.9)
    GRN: 5.7% (+2.8)
    LDEM: 2.5% (+2.5)

    Labour HOLD.

    No Ind (-35.3) as prev.

    Chgs. w/ 2018
    https://t.co/wLrErNY7eo

    Disappointed nobody unbanned to see the great Conservative result in this.
    Morning everyone. 11 deg today and grey again.

    Who has been banned? No-one from Essex, I hope.

    Incidentally, does HYUFD realise that Churchill was a Liberal at one time, and indeed a senior minister in a Liberal cabinet?
    14C and sunny here, with a fine day in prospect.
    According to the BBC forecast we can expect some sunny intervals later.

    IIRC, you're not in UK at the moment?
    Indeed not, having just enjoyed a hearty Bavarian breakfast. I am in a town that was film set for Chitty Chitty, and more recently one of the Harry Potter films. Planning a walk to restore my appetite by lunchtime.

    In other news, it looks like there’s a chance of getting a Belgian pet passport on the way home, which would save me having to pay £120 for the thirteen pages of legalese every time we go abroad.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,231
    Charles said:

    @FrancisUrquhart

    Just read some notes of Prof Harnden’s comments yesterday re: JCVI delay which seem very reasonable

    - waiting for results of COV-Boost study so they know whether (and how) to mix and match vaccines
    - Timing: there is a window after you boost when you can’t boost again. So if you boost before it is necessary you don’t get much upside but you create a window where they might be vulnerable to a new variant

    Does seem reasonable.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,015
    So we give vaccines to Oz rather than, say, sub-saharan Africa.
  • gealbhan said:

    eek said:

    gealbhan said:

    eek said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    So how does Boris plan differ from May’s Dementia Tax? The 60K cap rather than 100K? What does that mean in practice when 60K needs to be found for care from your means tested assets before the tax rise, 2p says Javid, steps in and helps?

    The salient point probably isn’t the tax rise but how a cap works? The original report said 50k, Later May said 100K, the smaller figure helps those in care, the larger the government coffers?

    These details trailed to the press don’t seem to be supported/defended by anyone posting here.

    They did this weeks ago, to luke warm response, and delayed it. How many times can they keep doing that?
    I've already tonight seen a number of tweets that point out that because it's on NI not income tax this is another generational tax grab where younger people are being expected to pay for older people.

    That is going to hurt Boris as much as the dementia tax hurt May.

    The only solution to this problem was to kick it into the long ish grass via a Royal commission with the end result to be reported on and implemented at the beginning of the next Parliament after the next General Election.
    Maybe they still will kick it into the long grass. But doesn’t the do nothing towards what was long time promised option still come with political damage?
    Less damaging than 1% on National insurance paid by young people to fund a cap on the amount of money wealthy pensioners need to pay for their own care.
    You are banging on that point of view, I don’t want to push a point of view I may not even subscribe to myself or actually disagree with you, but 1, those paying as they earn on progressive tax does has it merits as well as argument the retired done the same throughout their working lives, and 2, with a cap there are losers that end of the equation too, you concede, especially the higher it’s set at?
    No the retired didn't do the same in their working lives. If they did, we wouldn't be increasing the tax rate.

    This is a new tax, to fund a new benefit, that was never paid for in anyone's working lives. So it should apply to all.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    @FrancisUrquhart

    Just read some notes of Prof Harnden’s comments yesterday re: JCVI delay which seem very reasonable

    - waiting for results of COV-Boost study so they know whether (and how) to mix and match vaccines
    - Timing: there is a window after you boost when you can’t boost again. So if you boost before it is necessary you don’t get much upside but you create a window where they might be vulnerable to a new variant

    Re the second point: while I get that there are diminishing marginal efficiencies for boosting with the same vaccine, is that true for mixing and matching?
    They don’t know yet

    But the second point is different - let’s say that you booster with a delta optimised booster (eg vaccine A)

    Then omega comes knocking - it can escape vaccine A - but you can’t boost with B because you are still in the blackout period. Not good outcome.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,016
    edited September 3
    TOPPING said:

    So we give vaccines to Oz rather than, say, sub-saharan Africa.

    Pfizer. And its a swap, not a gift.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    TOPPING said:

    So we give vaccines to Oz rather than, say, sub-saharan Africa.

    What’s the temperature controlled logistic network like in sub-Saharan Africa?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    Morning all! Something woke me up so may as well get on with it. Sky Broadband is down (seems to have been rolling nationwide issues) but unlimited mobile data says so what.

    Would never have guessed that the Essicks Massiv would get the ban hammer - albeit time limited - for posting paranoid delusions about Covid vaccines.

    Perhaps when he comes back he can advise which manufacturer had the Bill Gates nanobots in it so I can see if I got the right one. I have found my previously staunch dislike of Windows softening these last weeks so I am guessing his nanobots were in my Pfizer jabs.

    Nah, I had Pfizer and still think Edge is an utter abomination so it can't have been Pfizer.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,573
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    @FrancisUrquhart

    Just read some notes of Prof Harnden’s comments yesterday re: JCVI delay which seem very reasonable

    - waiting for results of COV-Boost study so they know whether (and how) to mix and match vaccines
    - Timing: there is a window after you boost when you can’t boost again. So if you boost before it is necessary you don’t get much upside but you create a window where they might be vulnerable to a new variant

    Re the second point: while I get that there are diminishing marginal efficiencies for boosting with the same vaccine, is that true for mixing and matching?
    They don’t know yet

    But the second point is different - let’s say that you booster with a delta optimised booster (eg vaccine A)

    Then omega comes knocking - it can escape vaccine A - but you can’t boost with B because you are still in the blackout period. Not good outcome.
    But the blackout period - for different vaccine types - is presumably fairly small. I get that Pfizer followed by Pfizer two weeks later is going to not maximise efficiency. But Pfizer followed by AZ or Novavax or even J&J at a two week interval should be showing the immune system a slightly different target, so I can't see it would be that bad.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,149
    edited September 3
    Is their incompetence a genetic predisposition or just their family motto?

    https://twitter.com/mrjonnewton/status/1433474987378233352?s=21
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,573

    TOPPING said:

    So we give vaccines to Oz rather than, say, sub-saharan Africa.

    Pfizer.
    Exactly: they chances of Pfizer being wasted in Africa (as a consequence of the storage requirements) are at least 10x that of AZ.

    Better to give the more robust vaccines to Africa, rather than the more delicate ones.
  • pingping Posts: 1,418
    edited September 3
    Mornin’ all

    Not happy about raising NI to fund social care.

    Should be funded wholly though inheritance tax, IMO. And make IT less avoidable while we’re at it.

    Bloody pensioners party.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,827
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    I see the Tory party has decided to mollycoddle pensioners again at the expense of working people.

    My patience is being sorely tested.

    A tax on the working alone to pay for the past excesses of the retired is just not on. At least put it on income tax rather than NI. Increasingly hard to see any reason for anyone under about 55 to vote Tory.
    Isnt council tax one of the hardest for wealthy pensioners to avoid? And Councils are paying for the social care. So get that escalating. Shouldn't fall disproportionately on the young and could be slipped in under the radar without, I think, breaking any manifesto promises.

    And if the council have any cash spare, and enough drivers, they could empty our bins a bit more often.
    Council Tax is a better idea, though would bring the need for rebanding, rather than based on 30 year old valuations.

    The root problem though is trying to introduce a system to preserve large inheritances at the expense of working tax-payers. I write as someone who has seen his MiL fund 2 years of social care via the sale of her bungalow. To me that seems right and proper. That is what she and my late FiL saved for. It would be wrong to tax low income workers to preserve a windfall inheritance for Mrs Foxy and her sister.
    Tricky one inheritance tax. There’s something intrinsically human about wanting to pass down the line. Houses of course have particular emotional value. But it’s the dictionary opposition of meritocratic and the whole thing is a nonsense in this country when the house is normally the only asset of note.

    It also doesn’t even make that much sense at the micro level. Higher tax for your kids when they’re struggling to climb their way up in their 20s and 30s, for a possible windfall in their 50s or even 60s when they should by all accounts have made their lives and careers? No. It’s silly.

    Far better to try and bring Baby Sipps into the mainstream, perhaps with familial contributions matched 1-1 up to annual allowance, rather than the 1-4 subsidy at present (and perhaps at a higher level). But on the proviso that when the time comes, any asset (including a house) left by a dearly departed gets put back into the pot.

    I do make modest contributions into Baby Sipps. It tickles me to look at my baby and imagine him an old man raising a glass to my lesson on compound interest.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,015
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    So we give vaccines to Oz rather than, say, sub-saharan Africa.

    What’s the temperature controlled logistic network like in sub-Saharan Africa?
    Pretty shitty I imagine. Much better to keep vaccines to similarly developed nations such as ourselves.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,015
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    So we give vaccines to Oz rather than, say, sub-saharan Africa.

    Pfizer.
    Exactly: they chances of Pfizer being wasted in Africa (as a consequence of the storage requirements) are at least 10x that of AZ.

    Better to give the more robust vaccines to Africa, rather than the more delicate ones.
    40% of our initial vaccine donations go to Australia.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,769
    edited September 3
    Glad social care is being looked at. Something needs to change. It has been locked in a terrible place for years. It remains to be seen if this is the right or final answer, but glad it’s no longer neglected.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,016
    edited September 3
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    So we give vaccines to Oz rather than, say, sub-saharan Africa.

    Pfizer.
    Exactly: they chances of Pfizer being wasted in Africa (as a consequence of the storage requirements) are at least 10x that of AZ.

    Better to give the more robust vaccines to Africa, rather than the more delicate ones.
    40% of our initial vaccine donations go to Australia.
    It's not a "donation" - its a swap - they get ours now, we get theirs later.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the UK deal doubles the number of Pfizer doses available in September. Throughout the month, Australia will receive more than 9 million doses of Pfizer alongside 1 million Moderna doses and continued AstraZeneca supply.

    “From Downing Street to Down Under we are doubling down on the Pfizer doses available to us,” he said. “The plane’s on the tarmac now, it will be leaving tomorrow and those [Pfizer] doses will be coming over the course of the next few weeks.”

    Britain’s high commissioner to Australia, Vicki Treadell, says it’s a privilege to be able to support Australians by helping to accelerate the vaccine rollout down under.


    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/international-border-will-reopen-for-states-that-reach-80-percent-target-as-country-scores-more-pfizer-20210903-p58oi9.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,016
    “I think that the cult of personality over the years, particularly in Nicola Sturgeon’s period, has emptied the intellectual capability of the SNP. It’s hollowed out intellectually and lives on a diet of PR, virtue and gestures. Look at when NS said the troops should stay in Afghanistan – it’s just for a headline.

    “Five minutes thinking seriously about it, it’s absurd. All that mattered was the headline. Nicola had something to say. Does anybody in the party have the ability to say: what the hell you saying that for? I don’t think anybody can say it.”


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19555555.jim-sillars-independence-no-way-uk-government-will-allow-another-yes-no-referendum/?ref=twtrec
  • NEW THREAD

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,015

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    So we give vaccines to Oz rather than, say, sub-saharan Africa.

    Pfizer.
    Exactly: they chances of Pfizer being wasted in Africa (as a consequence of the storage requirements) are at least 10x that of AZ.

    Better to give the more robust vaccines to Africa, rather than the more delicate ones.
    40% of our initial vaccine donations go to Australia.
    It's not a "donation" - its a swap - they get ours now, we get theirs later.
    Even worse let's play swapsies with those nice other developed nations.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,015
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    So we give vaccines to Oz rather than, say, sub-saharan Africa.

    Pfizer.
    Exactly: they chances of Pfizer being wasted in Africa (as a consequence of the storage requirements) are at least 10x that of AZ.

    Better to give the more robust vaccines to Africa, rather than the more delicate ones.
    So give them the robust ones if we are in the business of not needing them this minute. Or swap them even. To be returned in a few years.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    @FrancisUrquhart

    Just read some notes of Prof Harnden’s comments yesterday re: JCVI delay which seem very reasonable

    - waiting for results of COV-Boost study so they know whether (and how) to mix and match vaccines
    - Timing: there is a window after you boost when you can’t boost again. So if you boost before it is necessary you don’t get much upside but you create a window where they might be vulnerable to a new variant

    Re the second point: while I get that there are diminishing marginal efficiencies for boosting with the same vaccine, is that true for mixing and matching?
    They don’t know yet

    But the second point is different - let’s say that you booster with a delta optimised booster (eg vaccine A)

    Then omega comes knocking - it can escape vaccine A - but you can’t boost with B because you are still in the blackout period. Not good outcome.
    But the blackout period - for different vaccine types - is presumably fairly small. I get that Pfizer followed by Pfizer two weeks later is going to not maximise efficiency. But Pfizer followed by AZ or Novavax or even J&J at a two week interval should be showing the immune system a slightly different target, so I can't see it would be that bad.
    They always have a wash out period for vaccines - it will be because they won’t have tested vaccines for concomitant administration so they won’t know about the impact of drug-drug interactions.

    This is particularly challenging with immunistimmulants (it was why Tim, formerly of this parish, and I used to get into fights over MMR because I had seen the impact that AlphaJect multivalents had on Chilean salmon and was nervous on combo vaccines as a result)
  • isamisam Posts: 38,534
    ...

    4 million doses of hope.

    I was pleased to sign a win-win deal last night with my friend @sajidjavid
    to support each other in the uptake of lifesaving COVID-19 vaccines.

    To all our British friends — especially @nadhimzahawi, @BorisJohnson and @DominicRaab — thank you.


    https://twitter.com/AusHCUK/status/1433668950873845783?s=20

    He should have a word with Beefy!

    Chris 🏳️‍🌈🔸
    @chrisbrighton10
    ·
    14m
    Replying to
    @AusHCUK

    @tomhfh
    and 4 others
    Any chance you could send us some food in exchange for vaccines ? As you might have heard we are suffering widespread #BrexitFoodShortages here in the UK .

    Many thanks.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    So we give vaccines to Oz rather than, say, sub-saharan Africa.

    What’s the temperature controlled logistic network like in sub-Saharan Africa?
    Pretty shitty I imagine. Much better to keep vaccines to similarly developed nations such as ourselves.
    Just those that need to use cold chain delivery
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,062
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Australia Traded Away Too Much Liberty
    How long can a democracy maintain emergency restrictions and still call itself a free country?
    By Conor Friedersdorf"

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/pandemic-australia-still-liberal-democracy/619940/


    Quote:

    "Intrastate travel within Australia is also severely restricted. And the government of South Australia, one of the country’s six states, developed and is now testing an app as Orwellian as any in the free world to enforce its quarantine rules. People in South Australia will be forced to download an app that combines facial recognition and geolocation. The state will text them at random times, and thereafter they will have 15 minutes to take a picture of their face in the location where they are supposed to be. Should they fail, the local police department will be sent to follow up in person. “We don’t tell them how often or when, on a random basis they have to reply within 15 minutes,” Premier Steven Marshall explained. “I think every South Australian should feel pretty proud that we are the national pilot for the home-based quarantine app.”"

    It's a fascinating question, to which I don't know the answer.

    Imagine that there was no Covid vaccine. But normal life could return 85% of the time: no masks, no social distancing, etc.

    Here's the thing: when a case is discovered everything is locked down perhaps for weeks at a time. And it's a complete lockdown - no leaving the house for exercise, no going to the store, no traveling to a friend's or another city. You are - for one week every couple of months - a prisoner.

    But the rest of the time you're free.

    Which is better? Endless petty restrictions, or draconian but temporary ones?

    Fortunately, vaccines have offered us a way out. But if you were in Oz, and vaccine availability was ... modest ..., which would you choose?
    There are plenty of vaccines available in Oz. Just no one wants to take CSL/AZ
    AstraZeneca has an horrific reputation out there in the world. Their board must seriously regret ever getting involved with Oxford University. It is not as though vaccines was one of their core competencies, and now the brand has taken a hit.
    And entirely driven by politics. It’s a seriously good vaccine
    They were also inexperienced at vaccine approval, and made a number of unforced errors: AZ is still unapproved in both the US and Switzerland.
    It's only approved on an emergency basis here, and there's no emergency need for it in the US.

    Looking at it objectively, though, it appears as effective over time as any of the other vaccines, and it's unclear whether (very low) the risks associated with it for serious side effects are significantly greater overall (though they appear to be in some age cohorts).
    And it's vastly superior to the considerably more expensive Chinese vaccines.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,450
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    I see the Tory party has decided to mollycoddle pensioners again at the expense of working people.

    My patience is being sorely tested.

    A tax on the working alone to pay for the past excesses of the retired is just not on. At least put it on income tax rather than NI. Increasingly hard to see any reason for anyone under about 55 to vote Tory.
    Isnt council tax one of the hardest for wealthy pensioners to avoid? And Councils are paying for the social care. So get that escalating. Shouldn't fall disproportionately on the young and could be slipped in under the radar without, I think, breaking any manifesto promises.

    And if the council have any cash spare, and enough drivers, they could empty our bins a bit more often.
    Council Tax is a better idea, though would bring the need for rebanding, rather than based on 30 year old valuations.

    The root problem though is trying to introduce a system to preserve large inheritances at the expense of working tax-payers. I write as someone who has seen his MiL fund 2 years of social care via the sale of her bungalow. To me that seems right and proper. That is what she and my late FiL saved for. It would be wrong to tax low income workers to preserve a windfall inheritance for Mrs Foxy and her sister.
    Agree completely. Interested in @paulyork64 Idea of council tax. I don't get this right to inherit a house that is not being used. I certainly don't expect the young to pay for my old age while I sit on my funds invested in my house. My house is my retirement.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Dura_Ace said:



    However, does anyone share my fear that the might of the earth's climate changes are so great that mankind will not be able to mitigate it, no matter how it is approached

    Yes. It can't be a surprise though. The Greens have been saying this for decades but you all found it easier to contemplate the end of the world rather than the end of capitalism.
    If they've been saying the change cannot be mitigated then of course people wont attempt mitigation, what would be the point?

    I don't think your post makes the point about unreasonability you think it does. To borrow from another saying its like suggesting our house is on fire and we will definitely burn to death no matter what and getting mad we are reluctant to go and fix that wobbly shelf in the kitchen.

    Theres a big difference between not being able to stop something and being unable to mitigate it.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,162
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's my attempt to explain the head-spinning array of coalition possibilities now confronting German voters. (Many thanks to @CW_PoWi, whose insights extended far beyond Game of Thrones similes.)



    https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1433678413802483748?s=20

    So they have CDU + Green as an option, but not SPD + Green. How odd.
    Presumably on the basis that CDU/CSU + Greens have had a majority in the opinion polls for much of the last couple of years, whereas the last time SPD + Greens had an opinion poll majority was a few years ago.

    If SPD + Greens get a majority in parliament (unlikely) then it would be a dead cert to form government.

    If recent polls are correct then:

    1. No 2 parties get a majority.
    2. SPD largest party.
    3. All 5 possible 3 party coalitions would have a majority

    In that situation I would expect the first try to be SPD-Greens-FDP. But negotiations could easily fail (last time the FDP pulled the plug on Union-Greens-FDP because they couldn't agree with the Greens on phasing out coal, amongst other things). In which case there would be several options. SPD-Greens-Linke would allow the SPD (and Greens) to get more of their program done than a coalition involving the FDP or Union, so I wouldn't rule it out.
This discussion has been closed.