The next G20 leader to leave – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Full figures actually here:squareroot2 said:
Thats probably because we consumed it at home.. endless negativity as usual from Scottn pasteScott_xP said:Exclusive: The food & drink industry is £2bn worse off after a "disastrous" fall in EU sales this year
The new @Foodanddrinkfed report, shared with
@politicshome, said meat & dairy exports were hit hardest in first 6 months of 2021
Full figures here... https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/post-brexit-trade-down-2-biliion-fall-eu-sales-food-drink-federation-report
https://www.fdf.org.uk/globalassets/resources/publications/reports/exports-reports/exports-snapshot-h1-2021.pdf
It's a combination of recovery from COVID/Brexit, import substitution with home grown, less trade with EU, and more trade with non-EU.
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If the Conservatives win most seats in Canada on September 20th ahead of Trudeau's Liberals then it would be Justin Trudeau first to leave, otherwise it would surely be Angela Merkel in the German election on 26th September?
Macron will likely be re elected assuming his opponent is Le Pen in the run off, though Bolsonaro may be in some trouble next year against Lula da Silva.
Interestingly if Trudeau is re elected and Scholz of the SPD as is likely becomes German Chancellor later this month then Boris Johnson would be the only centre right leader left in the G7 apart from Suga. If Suga lost the Japanese election likely in October to the centre left CDP then he would be the only centre right leader left, though polls still have Suga's LDP ahead
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Japanese_general_election0 -
Adding birth rate (which is not pregnancies but will have to do):Foxy said:
Isn't that just a parallel with fertility rates? Fewer pregnancies = fewer unwanted pregnancies?another_richard said:Looking at abortion rates per country the USA is higher than all but communist / ex communist countries:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/abortion-rates-by-country
Compared to western countries the abortion rate per 1,000 15-44 women is:
USA 20.8
Australia 19.7
NZ 19.7
UK 17.0
France 16.9
Canada 15.2
Japan 12.3
Italy 10.6
Spain 8.3
Germany 7.8
USA 20.8 // 1.8
Australia 19.7 // 1.74
NZ 19.7 // 1.6
UK 17.0 // 1.7
France 16.9 //1.8
Canada 15.2 // 1.5 (!)
Japan 12.3 // 1.3 (!!)
Italy 10.6 (1.2!!!)
Spain 8.3 (1.2!!!)
Germany 7.8 (1.5!)
So Germany a bit low and Australia/NZ a bit high, everyone else in the right order.
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Reposting this from the last thread - an actual randomised control trial (and a very large one) - on the efficacy of masks, just published.
The conclusions (masks do reduce transmission significantly) might not hold for Delta, but I think the trial is ongoing.
The Impact of Community Masking on COVID-19: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Bangladesh
https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Mask_RCT____Symptomatic_Seropositivity_083121.pdf1 -
Possible to draw various conclusions - availability of contraception, general respect for life, economic opportunities are some.Foxy said:
Isn't that just a parallel with fertility rates? Fewer pregnancies = fewer unwanted pregnancies?another_richard said:Looking at abortion rates per country the USA is higher than all but communist / ex communist countries:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/abortion-rates-by-country
Compared to western countries the abortion rate per 1,000 15-44 women is:
USA 20.8
Australia 19.7
NZ 19.7
UK 17.0
France 16.9
Canada 15.2
Japan 12.3
Italy 10.6
Spain 8.3
Germany 7.8
I'd guess that repealing RvW would have only a small effect on the number of abortions.0 -
I think that's right, though I gather you think it's a bad thing? A settlement under which people who hate vaxports don't have to have one but can't attend crowded environments seems a reasonable deal, if a bit rough on people who simply can't have the jab for medical reasons.YoungTurk said:
You gravely understimate the level of obedience in most of the population when the "You'll All Die Horribly if You Don't Obey" lever is pulled. Some here opined last spring that a ban on visits to other people's homes wouldn't last longer than 6 weeks, or 4 weeks, or whatever, and when making their pronouncements they sounded awfully knowledgeable as if they were super-skilled data jockeys. Sadly I doubt a single one of them had read Gustave Le Bon, let alone Stanley Milgram or Robert Cialdini. We're talking big-time ignorance of social psychology and the psychology of crowds and hierarchies - fields which can't be understood through data other than superficially. Vaxortestports have already been introduced for some international purposes and also in some countries (such as France) for internal purposes. It's nailed on that they will morph into straightforward vaxports and it will get harder to do the stuff you want to do unless you're carrying one. Many will stop wanting to do what they used to want to do, or at least except insofar as they might pine for the old days or criticise the authorities in a going-nowhere sense as if dreaming or as if going through the motions in between focusing their eyes on their smartphones. "Mission creep"? Mission avalanche is more like it. Wait and see.tlg86 said:If the government tries to impose another lockdown then I think @contrarian will have been proved right. But I don’t expect it to happen, because all the government can do is shutdown the economy. Trying to stop household mixing would be a waste of time.
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If necessary they would be moved to Devenport and the necessary done to ensure it had a secure and isolated enough facility, plenty of jobs would then go to Plymouth too.StuartDickson said:
In my experience, knowledge of the UK’s “independent” (ho ho) nuclear deterrent is woeful. The biggest black hole is how dependent the whole system is on the US, but closely followed by Coulport.Dura_Ace said:
The T boats and the Swiftsures before them were based at Devonport so the harbour could be made to work. What the Armchair Admirals are missing is the relevance of RNAD Coulport which is adjacent to Faslane. This the where the weapons are stored and the boats armed. It's impossible to build such a secure and isolated facility at Devonport unless they demolish half of Plymouth. (Possible tick in the pro column.)StuartDickson said:
Devonport is too shallow.Casino_Royale said:FPT - on Trident the subs would go to Devonport or Milford Haven, after a very long transition from Faslane of 10+ years. Scotland would have to be reasonable over this as a condition of its ascension to NATO.
However, Scottish independence would hugely complicate patrols around the island of Great Britain by rUK forces regardless, including patrol routes to access the north Atlantic and across the GIUK gap. That's a huge space to lose free sovereign access to.
It's one of the key reasons why Scottish independence would be such a disaster and gravely compromise our defence.
The destination of the Vanguards/Dreadnoughts depends on who is government at the time. A Lab/SNP/LD coalition of the unthrilling would probably put them into Île Longue. This wouldn't be possible for a tory government who would not be able to weather the Daily Mail/Telegraph stink over English/Welsh submarines being based in France so they'd go for Kings Bay.
No Coulport = no Faslane = no nukes
Though of course given this Tory government will refuse indyref2 it would only be a problem for a Labour PM who granted an indyref2 and lost it0 -
Over the course of the last year, about 1,800 people out of every million have died with Covid. And when we look at the death rate among the vaccinated people from their side-effects, it’s about two per million. So it’s absolutely clear from an overall risk-benefit perspective that we should be vaccinating people.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/aug/28/oral-history-of-oxfordastrazeneca-making-a-vaccine-in-a-year-is-like-landing-a-human-on-the-moon?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
And if Texas has elected a pro life GOP governor and pro life GOP legislature to try and cut that rate and restrict abortions to the first 6 weeks of pregnancy as it has and the SC by 5-4 has respected states rights fair enoughanother_richard said:Looking at abortion rates per country the USA is higher than all but communist / ex communist countries:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/abortion-rates-by-country
Compared to western countries the abortion rate per 1,000 15-44 women is:
USA 20.8
Australia 19.7
NZ 19.7
UK 17.0
France 16.9
Canada 15.2
Japan 12.3
Italy 10.6
Spain 8.3
Germany 7.80 -
When considering election dates for when a leader may leave office it's worth noting the next official date for the United States of America is actually 20 January 2025, not November 2024.0
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The tax dodgers are doing well for themselves.FrancisUrquhart said:A sentence I never thought I would hear...
Greggs opens al fresco dining in Stoke
https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/greggs-open-new-bakery-al-58584030 -
The state of NFTs were best explained to me as like the early e-commerce bubble. There is something there, the ability to establish authencity and ownership of say some art, but nobody really has any idea what if any of these collections actually had any value and most of it is just Tulip-mania based on a couple of collections / artists that set the market ceiling insanely high and the fact anybody can log on and try and flip these nonsense avatars, so even easier than buying tulip bulbs.
The reality is that like virtually no early e-commerce site still exists today, same with these NFT collections.0 -
Given the attitude of some States, (e.g. Texas) is it fair to compare the US as a whole with anywhere else?another_richard said:
Possible to draw various conclusions - availability of contraception, general respect for life, economic opportunities are some.Foxy said:
Isn't that just a parallel with fertility rates? Fewer pregnancies = fewer unwanted pregnancies?another_richard said:Looking at abortion rates per country the USA is higher than all but communist / ex communist countries:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/abortion-rates-by-country
Compared to western countries the abortion rate per 1,000 15-44 women is:
USA 20.8
Australia 19.7
NZ 19.7
UK 17.0
France 16.9
Canada 15.2
Japan 12.3
Italy 10.6
Spain 8.3
Germany 7.8
I'd guess that repealing RvW would have only a small effect on the number of abortions.
And unless my memory is at fault, when we in UK started to provide widely available contraceptive services to younger girls, the abortion rate fell.0 -
There is a supposition that if Tether's "Commercial Paper" isn't wholly imaginary then a bunch of it is Evergrande debt purchased well below par but reported as face value for the purpose of it's 'reserves'FrancisUrquhart said:uh....ohhhhh...
#Evergrande - China’s and world’s largest RE developer, with $ 15-16bn in offshore debt and more than $300bn in total liability - is on the verge of default and it’s bonds trading at 27c on the dollar. This is not making enough headlines given the systemic risk involved here imho https://t.co/MdgIcshWRx
https://twitter.com/niko_baki/status/1433103289055391750?t=AUxZBty2TYAKzTou6wUZBQ&s=19
They should have invested in NFTs instead....0 -
Anybody who goes anywhere near Tether, they are an absolute moron.Alistair said:
There is a supposition that if Tether's "Commercial Paper" isn't wholly imaginary then a bunch of it is Evergrande debt purchased well below par but reported as face value for the purpose of it's 'reserves'FrancisUrquhart said:uh....ohhhhh...
#Evergrande - China’s and world’s largest RE developer, with $ 15-16bn in offshore debt and more than $300bn in total liability - is on the verge of default and it’s bonds trading at 27c on the dollar. This is not making enough headlines given the systemic risk involved here imho https://t.co/MdgIcshWRx
https://twitter.com/niko_baki/status/1433103289055391750?t=AUxZBty2TYAKzTou6wUZBQ&s=19
They should have invested in NFTs instead....1 -
But Eth is the de facto currency for NFTs. You might not like modern art for instance but Christie's takes their cut for the Hirsts, Banksy and Emins they sellFrancisUrquhart said:
Actually the NFT craze is showing up the massive problem with Ethereum, it can't handle significant traffic. Its so bad now that with these NFT flips, people are often paying $500 per transaction in gas fees (exsctly what crypto is supposed to improve upon compared to traditional banking). Juat like Bitcoin won't become the digital currency in your pocket, as it can't handle the volume of transactions.Pulpstar said:
Particularly Eth and BTC. Those are the big two tbh.Pulpstar said:
Crypto looks positively sane compared with NFTsFrancisUrquhart said:This is rather concerning...
More students turn to crypto investing to plug financial gap
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58409442.amp
Day trading crypto is the highway to ruin.
I switched my DOGE for 0.16 eth, feels more stable
There are all sorts of add-ons to Ethereum to enable expansion of low cost transactions, side chains, off chain, layer 2....but most is still barely working, theoretical or vaperware.
Bitcoin has become the "digital gold" of crytpo. Now Ethereum might get patched / these side projects might work, but if they don't there are a number of direct alternatives to Ethereum that by design can handle massive volume, so i think Ethereum is still very risky (in a space that is very risky).0 -
There is a clear divide in the US.OldKingCole said:
Given the attitude of some States, (e.g. Texas) is it fair to compare the US as a whole with anywhere else?another_richard said:
Possible to draw various conclusions - availability of contraception, general respect for life, economic opportunities are some.Foxy said:
Isn't that just a parallel with fertility rates? Fewer pregnancies = fewer unwanted pregnancies?another_richard said:Looking at abortion rates per country the USA is higher than all but communist / ex communist countries:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/abortion-rates-by-country
Compared to western countries the abortion rate per 1,000 15-44 women is:
USA 20.8
Australia 19.7
NZ 19.7
UK 17.0
France 16.9
Canada 15.2
Japan 12.3
Italy 10.6
Spain 8.3
Germany 7.8
I'd guess that repealing RvW would have only a small effect on the number of abortions.
And unless my memory is at fault, when we in UK started to provide widely available contraceptive services to younger girls, the abortion rate fell.
The nation as a whole backs legal abortion by 54% to 42%.
However there are big differences by region.
The Northeast for example overwhelmingly backs legal abortion by 65% to 34% as does the West by 65% to 31%.
In the Midwest however it is near tied, 49% back legal abortion and 48% opposed.
In the South though 52% of voters still think abortion should be illegal and only 43% think it should be legal and Texas is of course in the South
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-news-poll-shows-nation-s-demographic-divides-abortion-n12782100 -
For the moment....its fast moving and new collections are starting to use alternatives like Cardano. I don't think Ethereum is going down the plughole anytime soon, but it's value has been ramping up precisely because of NFTs, but the technology can't cope with what is still niche small market (in terms of trade volume).Pulpstar said:
But Eth is the de facto currency for NFTs. You might not like modern art for instance but Christie's takes their cut for the Hirsts, Banksy and Emins they sellFrancisUrquhart said:
Actually the NFT craze is showing up the massive problem with Ethereum, it can't handle significant traffic. Its so bad now that with these NFT flips, people are often paying $500 per transaction in gas fees (exsctly what crypto is supposed to improve upon compared to traditional banking). Juat like Bitcoin won't become the digital currency in your pocket, as it can't handle the volume of transactions.Pulpstar said:
Particularly Eth and BTC. Those are the big two tbh.Pulpstar said:
Crypto looks positively sane compared with NFTsFrancisUrquhart said:This is rather concerning...
More students turn to crypto investing to plug financial gap
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58409442.amp
Day trading crypto is the highway to ruin.
I switched my DOGE for 0.16 eth, feels more stable
There are all sorts of add-ons to Ethereum to enable expansion of low cost transactions, side chains, off chain, layer 2....but most is still barely working, theoretical or vaperware.
Bitcoin has become the "digital gold" of crytpo. Now Ethereum might get patched / these side projects might work, but if they don't there are a number of direct alternatives to Ethereum that by design can handle massive volume, so i think Ethereum is still very risky (in a space that is very risky).
The "smart contract" idea again is perfectly good idea and I can see the idea being used more widely in the future, but it doesn't have to be Ethereum based. In fact, in its native cutrent form (even with move to ETH2) it can't cope, hence needing either Layer 2 / sidechain / bridging solutions....or another Layer 1 tech wins out e.g. Cardano.0 -
The Bank of England has appointed a new chief economist who is a staunch critic of limitless money printing
Telegraph0 -
Who really can't have the jab for medical reasons? Really. Sure people say that but is it true in the majority of cases?NickPalmer said:
I think that's right, though I gather you think it's a bad thing? A settlement under which people who hate vaxports don't have to have one but can't attend crowded environments seems a reasonable deal, if a bit rough on people who simply can't have the jab for medical reasons.YoungTurk said:
You gravely understimate the level of obedience in most of the population when the "You'll All Die Horribly if You Don't Obey" lever is pulled. Some here opined last spring that a ban on visits to other people's homes wouldn't last longer than 6 weeks, or 4 weeks, or whatever, and when making their pronouncements they sounded awfully knowledgeable as if they were super-skilled data jockeys. Sadly I doubt a single one of them had read Gustave Le Bon, let alone Stanley Milgram or Robert Cialdini. We're talking big-time ignorance of social psychology and the psychology of crowds and hierarchies - fields which can't be understood through data other than superficially. Vaxortestports have already been introduced for some international purposes and also in some countries (such as France) for internal purposes. It's nailed on that they will morph into straightforward vaxports and it will get harder to do the stuff you want to do unless you're carrying one. Many will stop wanting to do what they used to want to do, or at least except insofar as they might pine for the old days or criticise the authorities in a going-nowhere sense as if dreaming or as if going through the motions in between focusing their eyes on their smartphones. "Mission creep"? Mission avalanche is more like it. Wait and see.tlg86 said:If the government tries to impose another lockdown then I think @contrarian will have been proved right. But I don’t expect it to happen, because all the government can do is shutdown the economy. Trying to stop household mixing would be a waste of time.
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Thank you; my point exactly.HYUFD said:
There is a clear divide in the US.OldKingCole said:
Given the attitude of some States, (e.g. Texas) is it fair to compare the US as a whole with anywhere else?another_richard said:
Possible to draw various conclusions - availability of contraception, general respect for life, economic opportunities are some.Foxy said:
Isn't that just a parallel with fertility rates? Fewer pregnancies = fewer unwanted pregnancies?another_richard said:Looking at abortion rates per country the USA is higher than all but communist / ex communist countries:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/abortion-rates-by-country
Compared to western countries the abortion rate per 1,000 15-44 women is:
USA 20.8
Australia 19.7
NZ 19.7
UK 17.0
France 16.9
Canada 15.2
Japan 12.3
Italy 10.6
Spain 8.3
Germany 7.8
I'd guess that repealing RvW would have only a small effect on the number of abortions.
And unless my memory is at fault, when we in UK started to provide widely available contraceptive services to younger girls, the abortion rate fell.
The nation as a whole backs legal abortion by 54% to 42%.
However there are big differences by region.
The Northeast for example overwhelmingly backs legal abortion by 65% to 34% as does the West by 65% to 31%.
In the Midwest however it is near tied, 49% back legal abortion and 48% opposed.
In the South though 52% of voters still think abortion should be illegal and only 43% think it should be legal and Texas is of course in the South
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-news-poll-shows-nation-s-demographic-divides-abortion-n12782101 -
Not to mention the death rate from illegal abortions, I presume.OldKingCole said:
Given the attitude of some States, (e.g. Texas) is it fair to compare the US as a whole with anywhere else?another_richard said:
Possible to draw various conclusions - availability of contraception, general respect for life, economic opportunities are some.Foxy said:
Isn't that just a parallel with fertility rates? Fewer pregnancies = fewer unwanted pregnancies?another_richard said:Looking at abortion rates per country the USA is higher than all but communist / ex communist countries:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/abortion-rates-by-country
Compared to western countries the abortion rate per 1,000 15-44 women is:
USA 20.8
Australia 19.7
NZ 19.7
UK 17.0
France 16.9
Canada 15.2
Japan 12.3
Italy 10.6
Spain 8.3
Germany 7.8
I'd guess that repealing RvW would have only a small effect on the number of abortions.
And unless my memory is at fault, when we in UK started to provide widely available contraceptive services to younger girls, the abortion rate fell.
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I hear you. It is of grave concern that lockdowns of various degrees are now in the government toolkit.YoungTurk said:
You gravely understimate the level of obedience in most of the population when the "You'll All Die Horribly if You Don't Obey" lever is pulled. Some here opined last spring that a ban on visits to other people's homes wouldn't last longer than 6 weeks, or 4 weeks, or whatever, and when making their pronouncements they sounded awfully knowledgeable as if they were super-skilled data jockeys. Sadly I doubt a single one of them had read Gustave Le Bon, let alone Stanley Milgram or Robert Cialdini. We're talking big-time ignorance of social psychology and the psychology of crowds and hierarchies - fields which can't be understood through data other than superficially. Vaxortestports have already been introduced for some international purposes and also in some countries (such as France) for internal purposes. It's nailed on that they will morph into straightforward vaxports and it will get harder to do the stuff you want to do unless you're carrying one. Many will stop wanting to do what they used to want to do, or at least except insofar as they might pine for the old days or criticise the authorities in a going-nowhere sense as if dreaming or as if going through the motions in between focusing their eyes on their smartphones. "Mission creep"? Mission avalanche is more like it. Wait and see.tlg86 said:If the government tries to impose another lockdown then I think @contrarian will have been proved right. But I don’t expect it to happen, because all the government can do is shutdown the economy. Trying to stop household mixing would be a waste of time.
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Who isn't a staunch critic of limitless money printing?rottenborough said:The Bank of England has appointed a new chief economist who is a staunch critic of limitless money printing
Telegraph
The inevitable question is where the limit is, not can it be limitless.0 -
Fascinating long read:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/09/labour-s-lost-future-inside-story-20-year-collapse1 -
I note that Italy now requires them for domestic flights, ferries and long distance trains.NickPalmer said:
I think that's right, though I gather you think it's a bad thing? A settlement under which people who hate vaxports don't have to have one but can't attend crowded environments seems a reasonable deal, if a bit rough on people who simply can't have the jab for medical reasons.YoungTurk said:
You gravely understimate the level of obedience in most of the population when the "You'll All Die Horribly if You Don't Obey" lever is pulled. Some here opined last spring that a ban on visits to other people's homes wouldn't last longer than 6 weeks, or 4 weeks, or whatever, and when making their pronouncements they sounded awfully knowledgeable as if they were super-skilled data jockeys. Sadly I doubt a single one of them had read Gustave Le Bon, let alone Stanley Milgram or Robert Cialdini. We're talking big-time ignorance of social psychology and the psychology of crowds and hierarchies - fields which can't be understood through data other than superficially. Vaxortestports have already been introduced for some international purposes and also in some countries (such as France) for internal purposes. It's nailed on that they will morph into straightforward vaxports and it will get harder to do the stuff you want to do unless you're carrying one. Many will stop wanting to do what they used to want to do, or at least except insofar as they might pine for the old days or criticise the authorities in a going-nowhere sense as if dreaming or as if going through the motions in between focusing their eyes on their smartphones. "Mission creep"? Mission avalanche is more like it. Wait and see.tlg86 said:If the government tries to impose another lockdown then I think @contrarian will have been proved right. But I don’t expect it to happen, because all the government can do is shutdown the economy. Trying to stop household mixing would be a waste of time.
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Quite.Carnyx said:
Not to mention the death rate from illegal abortions, I presume.OldKingCole said:
Given the attitude of some States, (e.g. Texas) is it fair to compare the US as a whole with anywhere else?another_richard said:
Possible to draw various conclusions - availability of contraception, general respect for life, economic opportunities are some.Foxy said:
Isn't that just a parallel with fertility rates? Fewer pregnancies = fewer unwanted pregnancies?another_richard said:Looking at abortion rates per country the USA is higher than all but communist / ex communist countries:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/abortion-rates-by-country
Compared to western countries the abortion rate per 1,000 15-44 women is:
USA 20.8
Australia 19.7
NZ 19.7
UK 17.0
France 16.9
Canada 15.2
Japan 12.3
Italy 10.6
Spain 8.3
Germany 7.8
I'd guess that repealing RvW would have only a small effect on the number of abortions.
And unless my memory is at fault, when we in UK started to provide widely available contraceptive services to younger girls, the abortion rate fell.0 -
Deleted as irrelevantYoungTurk said:
You gravely understimate the level of obedience in most of the population when the "You'll All Die Horribly if You Don't Obey" lever is pulled. Some here opined last spring that a ban on visits to other people's homes wouldn't last longer than 6 weeks, or 4 weeks, or whatever, and when making their pronouncements they sounded awfully knowledgeable as if they were super-skilled data jockeys. Sadly I doubt a single one of them had read Gustave Le Bon, let alone Stanley Milgram or Robert Cialdini. We're talking big-time ignorance of social psychology and the psychology of crowds and hierarchies - fields which can't be understood through data other than superficially. Vaxortestports have already been introduced for some international purposes and also in some countries (such as France) for internal purposes. It's nailed on that they will morph into straightforward vaxports and it will get harder to do the stuff you want to do unless you're carrying one. Many will stop wanting to do what they used to want to do, or at least except insofar as they might pine for the old days or criticise the authorities in a going-nowhere sense as if dreaming or as if going through the motions in between focusing their eyes on their smartphones. "Mission creep"? Mission avalanche is more like it. Wait and see.tlg86 said:If the government tries to impose another lockdown then I think @contrarian will have been proved right. But I don’t expect it to happen, because all the government can do is shutdown the economy. Trying to stop household mixing would be a waste of time.
That Milgram experiment is a pain in the arse, trotted out with undue frequency in support of "Wake up, sheeple" arguments. It doesn't say what people think it says, because actually the dupes were dead right. They reasoned that nothing harmful or criminal could be going on in an experiment run by a respectable professor under the auspices of Yale, and they were spot on.0 -
The big story is the shift in market share from EU to Rest of the World, and probably home consumption. Food sector trade balance about the same.MattW said:
Full figures actually here:squareroot2 said:
Thats probably because we consumed it at home.. endless negativity as usual from Scottn pasteScott_xP said:Exclusive: The food & drink industry is £2bn worse off after a "disastrous" fall in EU sales this year
The new @Foodanddrinkfed report, shared with
@politicshome, said meat & dairy exports were hit hardest in first 6 months of 2021
Full figures here... https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/post-brexit-trade-down-2-biliion-fall-eu-sales-food-drink-federation-report
https://www.fdf.org.uk/globalassets/resources/publications/reports/exports-reports/exports-snapshot-h1-2021.pdf
It's a combination of recovery from COVID/Brexit, import substitution with home grown, less trade with EU, and more trade with non-EU.
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On-topic: in the 11 presidential elections under the 5R so far, the incumbent has won only three times: De Gaulle in 1965 (the guy who had "saved France from civil war" by setting up the 5R and by then had also pivoted on Algeria with perceived similar effect - a very special case), Mitterand in 1988, and Chirac in 2002. Admittedly the only incumbent to have stood since 2002 was Hollande in 2012. The atmosphere in France right now is very much as if everything is collapsing around everyone's ears. I doubt this bodes well for Macron even if there's no opposition candidate with much momentum at the moment. If it's Macron versus a "radical" of left or right in the second round, the "radical" is likely to pick up a lot more votes from across the aisle than was ever possible for Jean-Marie Le Pen.TSE said:Macron seems to follow the tradition of the fifth republic where it feels like every new President is much worse than their immediate predecessor. I just have this hunch/feeling that his favourite status is ephemeral. (I have a thread in the next few days looking at that.)
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Though in that case a Labour coalition could just decommission Trident and problem solved.HYUFD said:
If necessary they would be moved to Devenport and the necessary done to ensure it had a secure and isolated enough facility, plenty of jobs would then go to Plymouth too.StuartDickson said:
In my experience, knowledge of the UK’s “independent” (ho ho) nuclear deterrent is woeful. The biggest black hole is how dependent the whole system is on the US, but closely followed by Coulport.Dura_Ace said:
The T boats and the Swiftsures before them were based at Devonport so the harbour could be made to work. What the Armchair Admirals are missing is the relevance of RNAD Coulport which is adjacent to Faslane. This the where the weapons are stored and the boats armed. It's impossible to build such a secure and isolated facility at Devonport unless they demolish half of Plymouth. (Possible tick in the pro column.)StuartDickson said:
Devonport is too shallow.Casino_Royale said:FPT - on Trident the subs would go to Devonport or Milford Haven, after a very long transition from Faslane of 10+ years. Scotland would have to be reasonable over this as a condition of its ascension to NATO.
However, Scottish independence would hugely complicate patrols around the island of Great Britain by rUK forces regardless, including patrol routes to access the north Atlantic and across the GIUK gap. That's a huge space to lose free sovereign access to.
It's one of the key reasons why Scottish independence would be such a disaster and gravely compromise our defence.
The destination of the Vanguards/Dreadnoughts depends on who is government at the time. A Lab/SNP/LD coalition of the unthrilling would probably put them into Île Longue. This wouldn't be possible for a tory government who would not be able to weather the Daily Mail/Telegraph stink over English/Welsh submarines being based in France so they'd go for Kings Bay.
No Coulport = no Faslane = no nukes
Though of course given this Tory government will refuse indyref2 it would only be a problem for a Labour PM who granted an indyref2 and lost it1 -
Its easier to think it shouldn't if you're OK with it being permanently rigged in favour of the GOP. Just like you're quite happy to see DC voters denied Statehood.Charles said:@Alasdair
I don’t know how the number of SCOTUS Justices is set. I think (from here) there was legislation at some point.
So I am sure it CAN be changed. I don’t think it SHOULD be changed.
In the last thread you said that if the legislation was changed (which is entirely within Congress and the President's remit and authority) then it would "permanently politicise" SCOTUS. But how has SCOTUS not already been permanently politicised by the actions of the GOP in denying a vote on Obama's nomination then rushing through Trump's?
Had the shoe been on the other foot, had the Democrats acted like the GOP to ensure they had a majority in the Court, then the GOP got control of Congress and the White House then I have no doubt whatsoever that the GOP would be willing to expand the Court in response.
The Court has already been politicised.3 -
But at what point does the right of that 52% (it's that percentage again!) become the tyranny of the majority? After all, that 52% across the south is probably pretty heterogeneous; I'd guess at cities being more pro-legalisation and small town and rural areas being more pro-bans.HYUFD said:
There is a clear divide in the US.OldKingCole said:
Given the attitude of some States, (e.g. Texas) is it fair to compare the US as a whole with anywhere else?another_richard said:
Possible to draw various conclusions - availability of contraception, general respect for life, economic opportunities are some.Foxy said:
Isn't that just a parallel with fertility rates? Fewer pregnancies = fewer unwanted pregnancies?another_richard said:Looking at abortion rates per country the USA is higher than all but communist / ex communist countries:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/abortion-rates-by-country
Compared to western countries the abortion rate per 1,000 15-44 women is:
USA 20.8
Australia 19.7
NZ 19.7
UK 17.0
France 16.9
Canada 15.2
Japan 12.3
Italy 10.6
Spain 8.3
Germany 7.8
I'd guess that repealing RvW would have only a small effect on the number of abortions.
And unless my memory is at fault, when we in UK started to provide widely available contraceptive services to younger girls, the abortion rate fell.
The nation as a whole backs legal abortion by 54% to 42%.
However there are big differences by region.
The Northeast for example overwhelmingly backs legal abortion by 65% to 34% as does the West by 65% to 31%.
In the Midwest however it is near tied, 49% back legal abortion and 48% opposed.
In the South though 52% of voters still think abortion should be illegal and only 43% think it should be legal and Texas is of course in the South
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-news-poll-shows-nation-s-demographic-divides-abortion-n12782100 -
eg people who have had their immune systems weakened as part of a medical treatment.Stocky said:
Who really can't have the jab for medical reasons? Really. Sure people say that but is it true in the majority of cases?NickPalmer said:
I think that's right, though I gather you think it's a bad thing? A settlement under which people who hate vaxports don't have to have one but can't attend crowded environments seems a reasonable deal, if a bit rough on people who simply can't have the jab for medical reasons.YoungTurk said:
You gravely understimate the level of obedience in most of the population when the "You'll All Die Horribly if You Don't Obey" lever is pulled. Some here opined last spring that a ban on visits to other people's homes wouldn't last longer than 6 weeks, or 4 weeks, or whatever, and when making their pronouncements they sounded awfully knowledgeable as if they were super-skilled data jockeys. Sadly I doubt a single one of them had read Gustave Le Bon, let alone Stanley Milgram or Robert Cialdini. We're talking big-time ignorance of social psychology and the psychology of crowds and hierarchies - fields which can't be understood through data other than superficially. Vaxortestports have already been introduced for some international purposes and also in some countries (such as France) for internal purposes. It's nailed on that they will morph into straightforward vaxports and it will get harder to do the stuff you want to do unless you're carrying one. Many will stop wanting to do what they used to want to do, or at least except insofar as they might pine for the old days or criticise the authorities in a going-nowhere sense as if dreaming or as if going through the motions in between focusing their eyes on their smartphones. "Mission creep"? Mission avalanche is more like it. Wait and see.tlg86 said:If the government tries to impose another lockdown then I think @contrarian will have been proved right. But I don’t expect it to happen, because all the government can do is shutdown the economy. Trying to stop household mixing would be a waste of time.
0 -
Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.0
-
So far from being £2bn worse off as the ever-innumerate, ever-miserable ScottnPaste wrote, our trade balance is actually net (2019 to 2021) £200mn better off.MattW said:
The big story is the shift in market share from EU to Rest of the World, and probably home consumption. Food sector trade balance about the same.MattW said:
Full figures actually here:squareroot2 said:
Thats probably because we consumed it at home.. endless negativity as usual from Scottn pasteScott_xP said:Exclusive: The food & drink industry is £2bn worse off after a "disastrous" fall in EU sales this year
The new @Foodanddrinkfed report, shared with
@politicshome, said meat & dairy exports were hit hardest in first 6 months of 2021
Full figures here... https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/post-brexit-trade-down-2-biliion-fall-eu-sales-food-drink-federation-report
https://www.fdf.org.uk/globalassets/resources/publications/reports/exports-reports/exports-snapshot-h1-2021.pdf
It's a combination of recovery from COVID/Brexit, import substitution with home grown, less trade with EU, and more trade with non-EU.
But that in a Tweet and paste it Scott.1 -
Interesting. Nitpick (but a fairly important one) is that it's an RCT on promotion of mask wearing, the parts linking actual mask wearing to efficacy are more observational. It does show that promotion of mask wearing is helpful, but it's possible that some of the benefits are through means other than actual mask wearing - e.g. increased distancing observed in intervention areas; there may have been other changes prompted by the intervention other than mask wearing. It might have been interesting to see either non-mask awareness campaigns in control areas or a three arm trial (no intervention, awareness campaign with mask promotion, awareness campaign without mask promotion).Nigelb said:Reposting this from the last thread - an actual randomised control trial (and a very large one) - on the efficacy of masks, just published.
The conclusions (masks do reduce transmission significantly) might not hold for Delta, but I think the trial is ongoing.
The Impact of Community Masking on COVID-19: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Bangladesh
https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Mask_RCT____Symptomatic_Seropositivity_083121.pdf
Still, it's the most interesting study I've seen on this and community level interventions are - as they explain - the way to go to study transmission. Thanks.0 -
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
0 -
What has been interesting recently on SCOTUS is that Kavanaugh and Comey Barrett - which had been seen as backsliding by Republicans with some of their decisions - now seem to be becoming more confident on siding with Republican / conservative arguments.Philip_Thompson said:
Its easier to think it shouldn't if you're OK with it being permanently rigged in favour of the GOP. Just like you're quite happy to see DC voters denied Statehood.Charles said:@Alasdair
I don’t know how the number of SCOTUS Justices is set. I think (from here) there was legislation at some point.
So I am sure it CAN be changed. I don’t think it SHOULD be changed.
In the last thread you said that if the legislation was changed (which is entirely within Congress and the President's remit and authority) then it would "permanently politicise" SCOTUS. But how has SCOTUS not already been permanently politicised by the actions of the GOP in denying a vote on Obama's nomination then rushing through Trump's?
Had the shoe been on the other foot, had the Democrats acted like the GOP to ensure they had a majority in the Court, then the GOP got control of Congress and the White House then I have no doubt whatsoever that the GOP would be willing to expand the Court in response.
The Court has already been politicised.
1 -
Yes there is also a clear divide by place across the US, 65% of urban voters and 54% of suburban voters think abortion should be legal but 63% of rural voters think abortion should be illegal.Stuartinromford said:
But at what point does the right of that 52% (it's that percentage again!) become the tyranny of the majority? After all, that 52% across the south is probably pretty heterogeneous; I'd guess at cities being more pro-legalisation and small town and rural areas being more pro-bans.HYUFD said:
There is a clear divide in the US.OldKingCole said:
Given the attitude of some States, (e.g. Texas) is it fair to compare the US as a whole with anywhere else?another_richard said:
Possible to draw various conclusions - availability of contraception, general respect for life, economic opportunities are some.Foxy said:
Isn't that just a parallel with fertility rates? Fewer pregnancies = fewer unwanted pregnancies?another_richard said:Looking at abortion rates per country the USA is higher than all but communist / ex communist countries:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/abortion-rates-by-country
Compared to western countries the abortion rate per 1,000 15-44 women is:
USA 20.8
Australia 19.7
NZ 19.7
UK 17.0
France 16.9
Canada 15.2
Japan 12.3
Italy 10.6
Spain 8.3
Germany 7.8
I'd guess that repealing RvW would have only a small effect on the number of abortions.
And unless my memory is at fault, when we in UK started to provide widely available contraceptive services to younger girls, the abortion rate fell.
The nation as a whole backs legal abortion by 54% to 42%.
However there are big differences by region.
The Northeast for example overwhelmingly backs legal abortion by 65% to 34% as does the West by 65% to 31%.
In the Midwest however it is near tied, 49% back legal abortion and 48% opposed.
In the South though 52% of voters still think abortion should be illegal and only 43% think it should be legal and Texas is of course in the South
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-news-poll-shows-nation-s-demographic-divides-abortion-n1278210
However in the south clearly suburban areas will be mainly anti abortion too for 52% to think abortion should be illegal overall0 -
I suspect DA is addressing his comments to the 10% of people on here that about whose opinions he implies he does give a fuck.kle4 said:
Amusing, as you obviously do give a fuck to some degree or youd not bother to set the record straight on where you stand. I fear you are not a unique independent rebel on this - Every day on the internet there are millions of 'I dont care about this like you but I will respond about it anyway, proving otherwise' posts.Dura_Ace said:I was surprised to see such an extended debate about my vaccination proclivities on the previous thread. Just so we all know...
1. I believe vaccines are safe and effective.
2. I choose not to have one because they are tested on animals. Within the ambit of my information and control this extends to other products and medicines. I refused all pain medication when broke my wrist in that outstandingly excellent MTB accident last year.
3. You're all wasting pixels discussing it because I don't give a fuck what 90% of the people (and 100% of the tories) on here think or write about me. I am not one of these softcocks who will primly demand retractions or apologies if they feel traduced.
Happy that everyone leave it there, but come on Dura, people dont set out their position like that if they give zero fucks, and that's fine.
(I'm actually surprised it is - or that he admits it is - so high as 10%)0 -
No of judges was set at 9 by legislation in 1869.Philip_Thompson said:
Its easier to think it shouldn't if you're OK with it being permanently rigged in favour of the GOP. Just like you're quite happy to see DC voters denied Statehood.Charles said:@Alasdair
I don’t know how the number of SCOTUS Justices is set. I think (from here) there was legislation at some point.
So I am sure it CAN be changed. I don’t think it SHOULD be changed.
In the last thread you said that if the legislation was changed (which is entirely within Congress and the President's remit and authority) then it would "permanently politicise" SCOTUS. But how has SCOTUS not already been permanently politicised by the actions of the GOP in denying a vote on Obama's nomination then rushing through Trump's?
Had the shoe been on the other foot, had the Democrats acted like the GOP to ensure they had a majority in the Court, then the GOP got control of Congress and the White House then I have no doubt whatsoever that the GOP would be willing to expand the Court in response.
The Court has already been politicised.
0 -
I think any sane pro-vaxporter would agree that the medically exempt should be treated the same as the vaxed. Conscientious objectors are more difficult; perhaps we'll have panels like in WW1 asking What would you do if you saw a virus trying to outrage your sister?MattW said:
eg people who have had their immune systems weakened as part of a medical treatment.Stocky said:
Who really can't have the jab for medical reasons? Really. Sure people say that but is it true in the majority of cases?NickPalmer said:
I think that's right, though I gather you think it's a bad thing? A settlement under which people who hate vaxports don't have to have one but can't attend crowded environments seems a reasonable deal, if a bit rough on people who simply can't have the jab for medical reasons.YoungTurk said:
You gravely understimate the level of obedience in most of the population when the "You'll All Die Horribly if You Don't Obey" lever is pulled. Some here opined last spring that a ban on visits to other people's homes wouldn't last longer than 6 weeks, or 4 weeks, or whatever, and when making their pronouncements they sounded awfully knowledgeable as if they were super-skilled data jockeys. Sadly I doubt a single one of them had read Gustave Le Bon, let alone Stanley Milgram or Robert Cialdini. We're talking big-time ignorance of social psychology and the psychology of crowds and hierarchies - fields which can't be understood through data other than superficially. Vaxortestports have already been introduced for some international purposes and also in some countries (such as France) for internal purposes. It's nailed on that they will morph into straightforward vaxports and it will get harder to do the stuff you want to do unless you're carrying one. Many will stop wanting to do what they used to want to do, or at least except insofar as they might pine for the old days or criticise the authorities in a going-nowhere sense as if dreaming or as if going through the motions in between focusing their eyes on their smartphones. "Mission creep"? Mission avalanche is more like it. Wait and see.tlg86 said:If the government tries to impose another lockdown then I think @contrarian will have been proved right. But I don’t expect it to happen, because all the government can do is shutdown the economy. Trying to stop household mixing would be a waste of time.
1 -
Putin's Russia has them too and is far closer to us than they are (as indeed is Iran)StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
0 -
When they fire one at us. Are they all going to be this easy?StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
4 -
Except it wouldn't now as Starmer is pro the nuclear deterrent whereas Corbyn was not, indeed Corbyn went so far as to say he would never use it if PMFoxy said:
Though in that case a Labour coalition could just decommission Trident and problem solved.HYUFD said:
If necessary they would be moved to Devenport and the necessary done to ensure it had a secure and isolated enough facility, plenty of jobs would then go to Plymouth too.StuartDickson said:
In my experience, knowledge of the UK’s “independent” (ho ho) nuclear deterrent is woeful. The biggest black hole is how dependent the whole system is on the US, but closely followed by Coulport.Dura_Ace said:
The T boats and the Swiftsures before them were based at Devonport so the harbour could be made to work. What the Armchair Admirals are missing is the relevance of RNAD Coulport which is adjacent to Faslane. This the where the weapons are stored and the boats armed. It's impossible to build such a secure and isolated facility at Devonport unless they demolish half of Plymouth. (Possible tick in the pro column.)StuartDickson said:
Devonport is too shallow.Casino_Royale said:FPT - on Trident the subs would go to Devonport or Milford Haven, after a very long transition from Faslane of 10+ years. Scotland would have to be reasonable over this as a condition of its ascension to NATO.
However, Scottish independence would hugely complicate patrols around the island of Great Britain by rUK forces regardless, including patrol routes to access the north Atlantic and across the GIUK gap. That's a huge space to lose free sovereign access to.
It's one of the key reasons why Scottish independence would be such a disaster and gravely compromise our defence.
The destination of the Vanguards/Dreadnoughts depends on who is government at the time. A Lab/SNP/LD coalition of the unthrilling would probably put them into Île Longue. This wouldn't be possible for a tory government who would not be able to weather the Daily Mail/Telegraph stink over English/Welsh submarines being based in France so they'd go for Kings Bay.
No Coulport = no Faslane = no nukes
Though of course given this Tory government will refuse indyref2 it would only be a problem for a Labour PM who granted an indyref2 and lost it
0 -
Don't even think about it.You may recall the slogan about the late Senator Barry Goldwater; 'In your heart you know he might!'StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
1 -
12% labour voters could vote conservative
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
Which OTHER party could current Labour voters see themselves voting for?
None: 34%
Liberal Democrat: 25%
Green: 20%
Conservative: 12%
0 -
The Trident is a deterrent not a weapon of first useStuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
1 -
Given the attention Raab et al appear to have taken of the Intelligence briefings......IshmaelZ said:
When they fire one at us. Are they all going to be this easy?StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
0 -
I think Kavanaugh has been pretty consistently hackish?MrEd said:
What has been interesting recently on SCOTUS is that Kavanaugh and Comey Barrett - which had been seen as backsliding by Republicans with some of their decisions - now seem to be becoming more confident on siding with Republican / conservative arguments.Philip_Thompson said:
Its easier to think it shouldn't if you're OK with it being permanently rigged in favour of the GOP. Just like you're quite happy to see DC voters denied Statehood.Charles said:@Alasdair
I don’t know how the number of SCOTUS Justices is set. I think (from here) there was legislation at some point.
So I am sure it CAN be changed. I don’t think it SHOULD be changed.
In the last thread you said that if the legislation was changed (which is entirely within Congress and the President's remit and authority) then it would "permanently politicise" SCOTUS. But how has SCOTUS not already been permanently politicised by the actions of the GOP in denying a vote on Obama's nomination then rushing through Trump's?
Had the shoe been on the other foot, had the Democrats acted like the GOP to ensure they had a majority in the Court, then the GOP got control of Congress and the White House then I have no doubt whatsoever that the GOP would be willing to expand the Court in response.
The Court has already been politicised.
However I guess for religious conservatives the really big deal is abortion, nothing else matters anywhere as much. You may generally want to faithfully execute the law but if you think thousands of babies are being murdered every day then when that comes up you're probably more inclined to squint at the constitution and hold it upside-down and see if there's a way you can read it that will stop people killing the babies.0 -
Correction: The trial found and I quote "an imprecise zero" reduction in prevalence for cloth masks. Vaccines work as an intervention, cloth masks are a bad joke and a fashion choice not science at this point.Nigelb said:Reposting this from the last thread - an actual randomised control trial (and a very large one) - on the efficacy of masks, just published.
The conclusions (masks do reduce transmission significantly) might not hold for Delta, but I think the trial is ongoing.
The Impact of Community Masking on COVID-19: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Bangladesh
https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Mask_RCT____Symptomatic_Seropositivity_083121.pdf
Good riddance to masks now. If you want a reduction in spread then get your vaccine.
Interestingly I dropped my kids off at school this morning for their first day back after the summer. It was good to know beforehand that they're largely completely back to normal now at the school with bubbles etc eliminated. Separate gates for the separate classes had been eliminated which is a huge improvement as siblings can now go in together which they farcically weren't permitting last academic year. Masks had not been mentioned in the email from the school, I'd estimate >95% of the parents (and 100% of the teachers) I saw were not wearing masks this morning - very pleased with that.1 -
I have no truck with the GOP but the idea that the court has not been politicised for decades is for the birds. Indeed Adams and Jefferson were fighting over it back in 1801. It is an inherently political organisation.Philip_Thompson said:
Its easier to think it shouldn't if you're OK with it being permanently rigged in favour of the GOP. Just like you're quite happy to see DC voters denied Statehood.Charles said:@Alasdair
I don’t know how the number of SCOTUS Justices is set. I think (from here) there was legislation at some point.
So I am sure it CAN be changed. I don’t think it SHOULD be changed.
In the last thread you said that if the legislation was changed (which is entirely within Congress and the President's remit and authority) then it would "permanently politicise" SCOTUS. But how has SCOTUS not already been permanently politicised by the actions of the GOP in denying a vote on Obama's nomination then rushing through Trump's?
Had the shoe been on the other foot, had the Democrats acted like the GOP to ensure they had a majority in the Court, then the GOP got control of Congress and the White House then I have no doubt whatsoever that the GOP would be willing to expand the Court in response.
The Court has already been politicised.2 -
Legislation can be changed, it is Congress's job to pass legislation. If Congress thinks the legislation should be amended and they amend it following all due process then there is absolutely nothing unreasonable about that.MattW said:
No of judges was set at 9 by legislation in 1869.Philip_Thompson said:
Its easier to think it shouldn't if you're OK with it being permanently rigged in favour of the GOP. Just like you're quite happy to see DC voters denied Statehood.Charles said:@Alasdair
I don’t know how the number of SCOTUS Justices is set. I think (from here) there was legislation at some point.
So I am sure it CAN be changed. I don’t think it SHOULD be changed.
In the last thread you said that if the legislation was changed (which is entirely within Congress and the President's remit and authority) then it would "permanently politicise" SCOTUS. But how has SCOTUS not already been permanently politicised by the actions of the GOP in denying a vote on Obama's nomination then rushing through Trump's?
Had the shoe been on the other foot, had the Democrats acted like the GOP to ensure they had a majority in the Court, then the GOP got control of Congress and the White House then I have no doubt whatsoever that the GOP would be willing to expand the Court in response.
The Court has already been politicised.
Especially following the politicisation of the Court that has already happened in recent years.0 -
I think you're mistaken. I knew @Dura_Ace was anti animal testing rather than anti vax, so he must have mentioned it before. I believe it was in a post where he mentioned that he and plenty of other Greens wouldn't take them because of the animal testing. I remember thinking he was a wanker for not taking a vaccine, but at least he was a principled wanker.Stocky said:
Apologies if I'm wrong but I seem to recall that @Dura_Ace 's first post telling us that he won't have the vaccine was citing "capitalist big pharma" not animal testing. Or perhaps both. Unfortunately I can't find the post.IshmaelZ said:
And "Within the ambit of my information and control this extends to other products and medicines. I refused all pain medication when broke my wrist in that outstandingly excellent MTB accident last year." How far does this principle extend? People have given alcohol, and probably tap water, to all sorts of animals to see what it does to them. If the product predates the experimenting I assume you are OK, so can't you take non synthetic opiates?Stocky said:FPT:
Dura_Ace said:
"I was surprised to see such an extended debate about my vaccination proclivities on the previous thread. Just so we all know...
2. I choose not to have one because they are tested on animals."
Do we know this for sure? Is it true of all the vaccines?
0 -
Shakes head.....
Joe Rogan: Popular US podcast host says he has Covid-19 but is 'feeling great'
"We immediately threw the kitchen sink at it, all kinds of meds," he said, listing a string of medicines including the deworming drug ivermectin, which health experts say has yet to prove effective against Covid.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-584168010 -
Glad your children's school is back to normal. Much better for all concerned. Let's hope it stays that way!Philip_Thompson said:
Correction: The trial found and I quote "an imprecise zero" reduction in prevalence for cloth masks. Vaccines work as an intervention, cloth masks are a bad joke and a fashion choice not science at this point.Nigelb said:Reposting this from the last thread - an actual randomised control trial (and a very large one) - on the efficacy of masks, just published.
The conclusions (masks do reduce transmission significantly) might not hold for Delta, but I think the trial is ongoing.
The Impact of Community Masking on COVID-19: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Bangladesh
https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Mask_RCT____Symptomatic_Seropositivity_083121.pdf
Good riddance to masks now. If you want a reduction in spread then get your vaccine.
Interestingly I dropped my kids off at school this morning for their first day back after the summer. It was good to know beforehand that they're largely completely back to normal now at the school with bubbles etc eliminated. Separate gates for the separate classes had been eliminated which is a huge improvement as siblings can now go in together which they farcically weren't permitting last academic year. Masks had not been mentioned in the email from the school, I'd estimate >95% of the parents (and 100% of the teachers) I saw were not wearing masks this morning - very pleased with that.1 -
If the international environment ever deteriorated so far that Pakistan, North Korea or China fire a nuclear weapon at the Yookay then a nuclear “deterrent” will have clearly failed, along with the human species.IshmaelZ said:
When they fire one at us. Are they all going to be this easy?StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
1 -
But the point is that the deterrent hasn't failed. The nuclear deterrent has been the best thing for peace humanity has ever invented.StuartDickson said:
If the international environment ever deteriorated so far that Pakistan, North Korea or China fire a nuclear weapon at the Yookay then a nuclear “deterrent” will have clearly failed, along with the human species.IshmaelZ said:
When they fire one at us. Are they all going to be this easy?StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
We had thousands of years of major wars, ever getting more serious, until eventually the "war to end all wars" was followed by WWII ending with the dropping of the atomic bombs.
The only thing that has ensured no further world wars is not NATO, its not the EU, its not diplomacy. It is the nuclear deterrent. It works.1 -
Weapons designed for the mass incineration of cities are an evil that should not be held in a civilised country.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
2 -
My standout memory of Kimi Raikkonen. Few years ago, a grid event marking something to do with Michael Schumacher, KR missed it and explained why to live TV.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, certainly seems to be the case.
Someone got me the Raikkonen biography a year or two ago for Christmas. Normally not a fan of such things but it was quite interesting, not least his understanding of engineering which might be worth a lot to a team. Unsure what Bottas brings in that regard.
"I had to take a shit."
Talk about your down to earth Finn.0 -
So you'd rather go back to the pre-nuclear deterrent solution where instead of having nuclear weapons that ensured we don't go to war with each other, "civilised nations" were constantly going to war with each other and killing each other with bullets instead?Foxy said:
Weapons designed for the mass incineration of cities are an evil that should not be held in a civilised country.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
0 -
I quite agree.StuartDickson said:
If the international environment ever deteriorated so far that Pakistan, North Korea or China fire a nuclear weapon at the Yookay then a nuclear “deterrent” will have clearly failed, along with the human species.IshmaelZ said:
When they fire one at us. Are they all going to be this easy?StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
0 -
I feel like everything is overpriced right now but with ETH at least the average investor can expect a positive return, since there's actual revenue (people paying fees to send each other dollar-pegged coins, register domain names and transfer ownership of pictures of rocks) that goes to holders of the token, and once mining stops, hardly any costs. BTC and Doge are pure greater fool games, the only way for one investor to make a profit is for another investor to make an equal or greater loss.Pulpstar said:
Particularly Eth and BTC. Those are the big two tbh.Pulpstar said:
Crypto looks positively sane compared with NFTsFrancisUrquhart said:This is rather concerning...
More students turn to crypto investing to plug financial gap
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58409442.amp
Day trading crypto is the highway to ruin.
I switched my DOGE for 0.16 eth, feels more stable
If anyone's considering an NFT I think the thing to do is to ignore the secondary market and simply as yourself if you'd rather have say $10000 or a vague legally meaningless ownership interest in a picture of a rock. If you really want the picture of a rock more than the money they're asking for it, go for it.0 -
Feels like the timing really couldn't have been worse for the SNP and the Greens, that first Cambo and now vaccine passports have cropped up right at the outset of their partnership...two big wedge issues before they've even got their feet under the table
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1433357451613646851?s=200 -
Some of the art being released is very cool, but openseas secondary market is just tulip-mania, with everybody trying to get maximum money for any old crap, while not being left holding the bag when it all goes to shit.edmundintokyo said:
I feel like everything is overpriced right now but with ETH at least the average investor can expect a positive return, since there's actual revenue (people paying fees to send each other dollar-pegged coins, register domain names and transfer ownership of pictures of rocks) that goes to holders of the token, and once mining stops, hardly any costs. BTC and Doge are pure greater fool games, the only way for one investor to make a profit is for another investor to make an equal or greater loss.Pulpstar said:
Particularly Eth and BTC. Those are the big two tbh.Pulpstar said:
Crypto looks positively sane compared with NFTsFrancisUrquhart said:This is rather concerning...
More students turn to crypto investing to plug financial gap
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58409442.amp
Day trading crypto is the highway to ruin.
I switched my DOGE for 0.16 eth, feels more stable
If anyone's considering an NFT I think the thing to do is to ignore the secondary market and simply as yourself if you'd rather have say $10000 or a vague legally meaningless ownership interest in a picture of a rock. If you really want the picture of a rock more than the price they're asking for it, go for it.0 -
You just want the uncivilised countries to hold them? The fact that they already do can't be wished away, so whether we ("civilised" countries) should or shouldn't is irrelevant. We now must.Foxy said:
Weapons designed for the mass incineration of cities are an evil that should not be held in a civilised country.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
2 -
Dr. Foxy, and if the West throws them away and its conventional forces get nuked (and the odd city levelled) your principled stand will have certainly had some impact.
Mr. Kinabalu, that might be when Brundle asked him if he'd seen Pele at some ceremony or on the grid.1 -
The following people have their fingers on the nuclear buttons:Philip_Thompson said:
But the point is that the deterrent hasn't failed. The nuclear deterrent has been the best thing for peace humanity has ever invented.StuartDickson said:
If the international environment ever deteriorated so far that Pakistan, North Korea or China fire a nuclear weapon at the Yookay then a nuclear “deterrent” will have clearly failed, along with the human species.IshmaelZ said:
When they fire one at us. Are they all going to be this easy?StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
We had thousands of years of major wars, ever getting more serious, until eventually the "war to end all wars" was followed by WWII ending with the dropping of the atomic bombs.
The only thing that has ensured no further world wars is not NATO, its not the EU, its not diplomacy. It is the nuclear deterrent. It works.
Joe Biden
Vladimir Putin
Boris Johnson
Emmanuel Macron
Xi Jinping
Narendra Modi
Imran Khan
Kim Jong-un
Naftali Bennett
?
?
?
Sleep well tonight. These brave souls are ensuring peace on our planet. What a privilege to live under their paternal wings. World’s greatest ever invention.0 -
If you want peace, prepare for war.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, and if the West throws them away and its conventional forces get nuked (and the odd city levelled) your principled stand will have certainly had some impact.
Mr. Kinabalu, that might be when Brundle asked him if he'd seen Pele at some ceremony or on the grid.
Anyone who wants peace should be grateful for the nuclear deterrent. The nuclear deterrent has ensured over three quarters of a century of relative peace compared to what we always had before.
The nuclear weapon deserves the ultimate peace prize more than all Nobel winners combined.0 -
I see the BBC has started its campaign...
Universal credit £20 drop: 'I'm used to hunger pains'
https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-581869780 -
No shit sherlock....
The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation said yesterday a booster programme for healthy people was still being considered.
Government scientific adviser Prof Peter Openshaw said it was good the JCVI was being so "meticulous" in waiting for studies about booster jabs before issuing advice, but warned that time is a factor.
"This type of study does take time and if we wait for everything to report before making a judgement, we may well be past the time when we should have been making a decision," he tells Radio 4's Today programme.
----
It is "highly likely" there will be a programme of booster vaccinations, the deputy chair of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
Prof Anthony Harnden says a scientific recommendation is due to be made over the next few weeks and ministers will make the final decision.
F##king ridiculous. That means no boosters until at least October, so for many of the most vulnerable any additional protection won't come into force until well into November and some even December. That's far too late to be risking it, you want all the oldies done in September / early October, so come the winter they have the full effects of the booster already.3 -
He did most certainly mention it, perhaps on another occasion as well - it's been in my memory for some time (though also he objects to the piggy gelatine or some similar porcine ingredient as well, IIRC, being vegan).BlancheLivermore said:
I think you're mistaken. I knew @Dura_Ace was anti animal testing rather than anti vax, so he must have mentioned it before. I believe it was in a post where he mentioned that he and plenty of other Greens wouldn't take them because of the animal testing. I remember thinking he was a wanker for not taking a vaccine, but at least he was a principled wanker.Stocky said:
Apologies if I'm wrong but I seem to recall that @Dura_Ace 's first post telling us that he won't have the vaccine was citing "capitalist big pharma" not animal testing. Or perhaps both. Unfortunately I can't find the post.IshmaelZ said:
And "Within the ambit of my information and control this extends to other products and medicines. I refused all pain medication when broke my wrist in that outstandingly excellent MTB accident last year." How far does this principle extend? People have given alcohol, and probably tap water, to all sorts of animals to see what it does to them. If the product predates the experimenting I assume you are OK, so can't you take non synthetic opiates?Stocky said:FPT:
Dura_Ace said:
"I was surprised to see such an extended debate about my vaccination proclivities on the previous thread. Just so we all know...
2. I choose not to have one because they are tested on animals."
Do we know this for sure? Is it true of all the vaccines?1 -
Precisely it is the world's greatest ever invention. Especially in the cause of peace.StuartDickson said:
The following people have their fingers on the nuclear buttons:Philip_Thompson said:
But the point is that the deterrent hasn't failed. The nuclear deterrent has been the best thing for peace humanity has ever invented.StuartDickson said:
If the international environment ever deteriorated so far that Pakistan, North Korea or China fire a nuclear weapon at the Yookay then a nuclear “deterrent” will have clearly failed, along with the human species.IshmaelZ said:
When they fire one at us. Are they all going to be this easy?StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
We had thousands of years of major wars, ever getting more serious, until eventually the "war to end all wars" was followed by WWII ending with the dropping of the atomic bombs.
The only thing that has ensured no further world wars is not NATO, its not the EU, its not diplomacy. It is the nuclear deterrent. It works.
Joe Biden
Vladimir Putin
Boris Johnson
Emmanuel Macron
Xi Jinping
Narendra Modi
Imran Khan
Kim Jong-un
Naftali Bennett
?
?
?
Sleep well tonight. These brave souls are ensuring peace on our planet. What a privilege to live under their paternal wings. World’s greatest ever invention.
Do you think that a hundred years ago none of those leaders would have declared war on any of the others? Of course they would. Only the nuclear deterrent stays their hand, it is why we have peace.1 -
Don't think Bennet's quite such a risk compared with Netanyahu. Same applies to Biden and Trump.StuartDickson said:
The following people have their fingers on the nuclear buttons:Philip_Thompson said:
But the point is that the deterrent hasn't failed. The nuclear deterrent has been the best thing for peace humanity has ever invented.StuartDickson said:
If the international environment ever deteriorated so far that Pakistan, North Korea or China fire a nuclear weapon at the Yookay then a nuclear “deterrent” will have clearly failed, along with the human species.IshmaelZ said:
When they fire one at us. Are they all going to be this easy?StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
We had thousands of years of major wars, ever getting more serious, until eventually the "war to end all wars" was followed by WWII ending with the dropping of the atomic bombs.
The only thing that has ensured no further world wars is not NATO, its not the EU, its not diplomacy. It is the nuclear deterrent. It works.
Joe Biden
Vladimir Putin
Boris Johnson
Emmanuel Macron
Xi Jinping
Narendra Modi
Imran Khan
Kim Jong-un
Naftali Bennett
?
?
?
Sleep well tonight. These brave souls are ensuring peace on our planet. What a privilege to live under their paternal wings. World’s greatest ever invention.
0 -
England going to have a bowl this morning.0
-
It's fair to be jaded with promises of ethereum stuff but tbf layer 2 is actually shipping. Simple payments and token transfers are done and have been working great for a year or so (zksync, loopring), optimistic rollups are shipping (optimism is nearly shipped, arbitrum went live literally yesterday), zkrollups with contract support will almost definitely ship this year (next iteration of zksync).FrancisUrquhart said:
Actually the NFT craze is showing up the massive problem with Ethereum, it can't handle significant traffic. Its so bad now that with these NFT flips, people are often paying $500 per transaction in gas fees (exsctly what crypto is supposed to improve upon compared to traditional banking). Juat like Bitcoin won't become the digital currency in your pocket, as it can't handle the volume of transactions.Pulpstar said:
Particularly Eth and BTC. Those are the big two tbh.Pulpstar said:
Crypto looks positively sane compared with NFTsFrancisUrquhart said:This is rather concerning...
More students turn to crypto investing to plug financial gap
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58409442.amp
Day trading crypto is the highway to ruin.
I switched my DOGE for 0.16 eth, feels more stable
There are all sorts of add-ons to Ethereum to enable expansion of low cost transactions, side chains, off chain, layer 2....but most is still barely working, theoretical or vaperware.1 -
That's a very odd way of putting it (in the paper, I know you're quoting). What they did was fail to find evidence of an effect.* It would be interesting to see the power calculations (I expect there in there somewhere but haven't read the whole thing) for what kind of effect size they powered for. Prevalence was fairly low too, which won't have helped the study power.Philip_Thompson said:
Correction: The trial found and I quote "an imprecise zero" reduction in prevalence for cloth masks. Vaccines work as an intervention, cloth masks are a bad joke and a fashion choice not science at this point.Nigelb said:Reposting this from the last thread - an actual randomised control trial (and a very large one) - on the efficacy of masks, just published.
The conclusions (masks do reduce transmission significantly) might not hold for Delta, but I think the trial is ongoing.
The Impact of Community Masking on COVID-19: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Bangladesh
https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Mask_RCT____Symptomatic_Seropositivity_083121.pdf
[snip]
(I say this as someone not wearing a mask presently except when asked to, which includes e.g. signs on shop doors)
*Again, as I commented before, of an effect of promoting cloth masks. That's the intervention, that's what is tested. As not everyone wore the masks provided and some people in the control groups wore masks, the study will underestimate the efficacy of actually wearing a mask.0 -
The Korean War (3 million dead), Vietnam War (another 3 million dead), the recent Afghan Wars (2 million dead since 1980), and the various Congo Civil Wars (5 million dead) all say hello.Philip_Thompson said:
But the point is that the deterrent hasn't failed. The nuclear deterrent has been the best thing for peace humanity has ever invented.StuartDickson said:
If the international environment ever deteriorated so far that Pakistan, North Korea or China fire a nuclear weapon at the Yookay then a nuclear “deterrent” will have clearly failed, along with the human species.IshmaelZ said:
When they fire one at us. Are they all going to be this easy?StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
2 -
Used, every so often, to get people asking for medicine in capsules that weren't gelatine based.Carnyx said:
He did most certainly mention it, perhaps on another occasion as well - it's been in my memory for some time (though also he objects to the piggy gelatine or some similar porcine ingredient as well, IIRC, being vegan).BlancheLivermore said:
I think you're mistaken. I knew @Dura_Ace was anti animal testing rather than anti vax, so he must have mentioned it before. I believe it was in a post where he mentioned that he and plenty of other Greens wouldn't take them because of the animal testing. I remember thinking he was a wanker for not taking a vaccine, but at least he was a principled wanker.Stocky said:
Apologies if I'm wrong but I seem to recall that @Dura_Ace 's first post telling us that he won't have the vaccine was citing "capitalist big pharma" not animal testing. Or perhaps both. Unfortunately I can't find the post.IshmaelZ said:
And "Within the ambit of my information and control this extends to other products and medicines. I refused all pain medication when broke my wrist in that outstandingly excellent MTB accident last year." How far does this principle extend? People have given alcohol, and probably tap water, to all sorts of animals to see what it does to them. If the product predates the experimenting I assume you are OK, so can't you take non synthetic opiates?Stocky said:FPT:
Dura_Ace said:
"I was surprised to see such an extended debate about my vaccination proclivities on the previous thread. Just so we all know...
2. I choose not to have one because they are tested on animals."
Do we know this for sure? Is it true of all the vaccines?
IIRC they were available, but very rarely used. Interesting of course, people who have religious objections to products from specific animals get a dispensation from the religious authorities. Same applies, IIRC, to pregnant women who don't have to fast during Ramadan.1 -
World War 1 deaths: Approximately 20 million people
World War 2 deaths (excluding nukes): Approximately 80 million people.
Deaths by nukes: Less than 0.25 million.
World War 3 deaths: 0 million.
World War 1 was incorrectly called the war to end all wars, but relatively speaking Little Boy and Fat Man were actually the bombs to end all bombs - between major nations at least.
We enjoy peace thanks to the nuclear deterrent. Because it works. I would not for one microsecond want to go back to a pre nuclear position of warfare.2 -
I think the question remains is all the "patching" on top of ethereum better than a new L1 solution such Cardona or Polkadot? Or will they ultimately all co-exist with bridges?edmundintokyo said:
It's fair to be jaded with promises of ethereum stuff but tbf layer 2 is actually shipping. Simple payments and token transfers are done and have been working great for a year or so (zksync, loopring), optimistic rollups are shipping (optimism is nearly shipped, arbitrum went live literally yesterday), zkrollups with contract support will almost definitely ship this year (next iteration of zksync).FrancisUrquhart said:
Actually the NFT craze is showing up the massive problem with Ethereum, it can't handle significant traffic. Its so bad now that with these NFT flips, people are often paying $500 per transaction in gas fees (exsctly what crypto is supposed to improve upon compared to traditional banking). Juat like Bitcoin won't become the digital currency in your pocket, as it can't handle the volume of transactions.Pulpstar said:
Particularly Eth and BTC. Those are the big two tbh.Pulpstar said:
Crypto looks positively sane compared with NFTsFrancisUrquhart said:This is rather concerning...
More students turn to crypto investing to plug financial gap
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58409442.amp
Day trading crypto is the highway to ruin.
I switched my DOGE for 0.16 eth, feels more stable
There are all sorts of add-ons to Ethereum to enable expansion of low cost transactions, side chains, off chain, layer 2....but most is still barely working, theoretical or vaperware.0 -
Ex-Health Secretary Matt Hancock takes lover Gina Coladangelo on romantic £87-a-night Alpine holiday
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9948981/Ex-Health-Secretary-Matt-Hancock-takes-lover-Gina-Coladangelo-romantic-87-night-Alpine-holiday.html
£87 a night in Switzerland. What were they staying in a travelodge?5 -
Even when mandatory by law people had a tendency to be wearing masks around their neck, under their mouth, under their nose etc.Selebian said:
That's a very odd way of putting it (in the paper, I know you're quoting). What they did was fail to find evidence of an effect.* It would be interesting to see the power calculations (I expect there in there somewhere but haven't read the whole thing) for what kind of effect size they powered for. Prevalence was fairly low too, which won't have helped the study power.Philip_Thompson said:
Correction: The trial found and I quote "an imprecise zero" reduction in prevalence for cloth masks. Vaccines work as an intervention, cloth masks are a bad joke and a fashion choice not science at this point.Nigelb said:Reposting this from the last thread - an actual randomised control trial (and a very large one) - on the efficacy of masks, just published.
The conclusions (masks do reduce transmission significantly) might not hold for Delta, but I think the trial is ongoing.
The Impact of Community Masking on COVID-19: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Bangladesh
https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Mask_RCT____Symptomatic_Seropositivity_083121.pdf
[snip]
(I say this as someone not wearing a mask presently except when asked to, which includes e.g. signs on shop doors)
*Again, as I commented before, of an effect of promoting cloth masks. That's the intervention, that's what is tested. As not everyone wore the masks provided and some people in the control groups wore masks, the study will underestimate the efficacy of actually wearing a mask.
If your argument it works is with an idealised population, using idealised masks, worn ideally, properly handled and properly cleaned ... Then that's as bad a joke as saying Communism works it's just the people who are flawed.
Cloth masks were a reasonable intervention to try when vaccines weren't available and clinical masks weren't either. The science is they don't meaningfully work in the position we're in now so good riddance to them.
If you refuse to learn from the evidence of how things operate in the real world then that's not good science.0 -
That's fair. The benefit is that competing layer 2 teams go much faster than one core dev team. You can start again with a whole competing base layer from whichever team does that fastest at any given moment, but then you have to move the users over. But there are definitely also downsides to the layered approach.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think the question remains is all the "patching" on top of ethereum better than a new L1 solution such Cardona or Polkadot? Or will they ultimately all co-exist with bridges?edmundintokyo said:
It's fair to be jaded with promises of ethereum stuff but tbf layer 2 is actually shipping. Simple payments and token transfers are done and have been working great for a year or so (zksync, loopring), optimistic rollups are shipping (optimism is nearly shipped, arbitrum went live literally yesterday), zkrollups with contract support will almost definitely ship this year (next iteration of zksync).FrancisUrquhart said:
Actually the NFT craze is showing up the massive problem with Ethereum, it can't handle significant traffic. Its so bad now that with these NFT flips, people are often paying $500 per transaction in gas fees (exsctly what crypto is supposed to improve upon compared to traditional banking). Juat like Bitcoin won't become the digital currency in your pocket, as it can't handle the volume of transactions.Pulpstar said:
Particularly Eth and BTC. Those are the big two tbh.Pulpstar said:
Crypto looks positively sane compared with NFTsFrancisUrquhart said:This is rather concerning...
More students turn to crypto investing to plug financial gap
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58409442.amp
Day trading crypto is the highway to ruin.
I switched my DOGE for 0.16 eth, feels more stable
There are all sorts of add-ons to Ethereum to enable expansion of low cost transactions, side chains, off chain, layer 2....but most is still barely working, theoretical or vaperware.
PS Cardano is a hustle, don't touch it with a bargepole. Polkadot is a proper project, another interesting one right now is Solana.0 -
Not sure that is a very ringing endorsement!OldKingCole said:
Don't think Bennet's quite such a risk compared with Netanyahu. Same applies to Biden and Trump.StuartDickson said:
The following people have their fingers on the nuclear buttons:Philip_Thompson said:
But the point is that the deterrent hasn't failed. The nuclear deterrent has been the best thing for peace humanity has ever invented.StuartDickson said:
If the international environment ever deteriorated so far that Pakistan, North Korea or China fire a nuclear weapon at the Yookay then a nuclear “deterrent” will have clearly failed, along with the human species.IshmaelZ said:
When they fire one at us. Are they all going to be this easy?StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
We had thousands of years of major wars, ever getting more serious, until eventually the "war to end all wars" was followed by WWII ending with the dropping of the atomic bombs.
The only thing that has ensured no further world wars is not NATO, its not the EU, its not diplomacy. It is the nuclear deterrent. It works.
Joe Biden
Vladimir Putin
Boris Johnson
Emmanuel Macron
Xi Jinping
Narendra Modi
Imran Khan
Kim Jong-un
Naftali Bennett
?
?
?
Sleep well tonight. These brave souls are ensuring peace on our planet. What a privilege to live under their paternal wings. World’s greatest ever invention.
Of course many countries without nuclear "deterrent" have enjoyed 75 years of peace, while those with them have all indulged in multiple wars...1 -
They prove my point. Pre nuclear weapons any of them could have escalated like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand. But they didn't, they remained local conflicts rather than World Wars that didn't expand the theatre of war into a nation with nukes.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Korean War (3 million dead), Vietnam War (another 3 million dead), the recent Afghan Wars (2 million dead since 1980), and the various Congo Civil Wars (5 million dead) all say hello.Philip_Thompson said:
But the point is that the deterrent hasn't failed. The nuclear deterrent has been the best thing for peace humanity has ever invented.StuartDickson said:
If the international environment ever deteriorated so far that Pakistan, North Korea or China fire a nuclear weapon at the Yookay then a nuclear “deterrent” will have clearly failed, along with the human species.IshmaelZ said:
When they fire one at us. Are they all going to be this easy?StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
2 -
Totally right. One day we'll get there.Foxy said:
Weapons designed for the mass incineration of cities are an evil that should not be held in a civilised country.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
1 -
It is, thanks for that. Depressing reading for me, as a left of centre type, but I agree with pretty mich everything said.CarlottaVance said:
Interesting that Farage doesn’t blame Labour for the 2008 crash, but deregulation in the previous decades. Shame that horse has well and truly bolted and Labour still carry the blame for it. Osborne did his job well.
Incidentally, did you recommend the Zamoyski book on Napoleon to me? I think it was you. Just started it, enjoying it so far, very interesting, thank you.0 -
Mr. Kinabalu, we might.
But if democracies don't have nukes and tyrannies do, that is not a step forward for the world.5 -
Best aspect I could think of!Foxy said:
Not sure that is a very ringing endorsement!OldKingCole said:
Don't think Bennet's quite such a risk compared with Netanyahu. Same applies to Biden and Trump.StuartDickson said:
The following people have their fingers on the nuclear buttons:Philip_Thompson said:
But the point is that the deterrent hasn't failed. The nuclear deterrent has been the best thing for peace humanity has ever invented.StuartDickson said:
If the international environment ever deteriorated so far that Pakistan, North Korea or China fire a nuclear weapon at the Yookay then a nuclear “deterrent” will have clearly failed, along with the human species.IshmaelZ said:
When they fire one at us. Are they all going to be this easy?StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
We had thousands of years of major wars, ever getting more serious, until eventually the "war to end all wars" was followed by WWII ending with the dropping of the atomic bombs.
The only thing that has ensured no further world wars is not NATO, its not the EU, its not diplomacy. It is the nuclear deterrent. It works.
Joe Biden
Vladimir Putin
Boris Johnson
Emmanuel Macron
Xi Jinping
Narendra Modi
Imran Khan
Kim Jong-un
Naftali Bennett
?
?
?
Sleep well tonight. These brave souls are ensuring peace on our planet. What a privilege to live under their paternal wings. World’s greatest ever invention.
.1 -
Thanks to freeriding under the shield of protection of those who do have nuclear weapons.Foxy said:
Not sure that is a very ringing endorsement!OldKingCole said:
Don't think Bennet's quite such a risk compared with Netanyahu. Same applies to Biden and Trump.StuartDickson said:
The following people have their fingers on the nuclear buttons:Philip_Thompson said:
But the point is that the deterrent hasn't failed. The nuclear deterrent has been the best thing for peace humanity has ever invented.StuartDickson said:
If the international environment ever deteriorated so far that Pakistan, North Korea or China fire a nuclear weapon at the Yookay then a nuclear “deterrent” will have clearly failed, along with the human species.IshmaelZ said:
When they fire one at us. Are they all going to be this easy?StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
We had thousands of years of major wars, ever getting more serious, until eventually the "war to end all wars" was followed by WWII ending with the dropping of the atomic bombs.
The only thing that has ensured no further world wars is not NATO, its not the EU, its not diplomacy. It is the nuclear deterrent. It works.
Joe Biden
Vladimir Putin
Boris Johnson
Emmanuel Macron
Xi Jinping
Narendra Modi
Imran Khan
Kim Jong-un
Naftali Bennett
?
?
?
Sleep well tonight. These brave souls are ensuring peace on our planet. What a privilege to live under their paternal wings. World’s greatest ever invention.
Of course many countries without nuclear "deterrent" have enjoyed 75 years of peace, while those with them have all indulged in multiple wars...
The theatre of war has never to my knowledge been in a country with nukes (not counting things like Falkland's since that's not our country). But plenty of countries without nukes have been the theatre of war.0 -
What's been really funny is the same people saying EU workers didn't result in wages being held down for working classes now blaming worker shortages and the resulting wage inflation on Brexit. They can both be true.4
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I'm not sure that's correct? As they have measured mask-wearing in both sets of communities, they will underestimate/overestimate efficacy only if their measurements are inaccurate.Selebian said:
That's a very odd way of putting it (in the paper, I know you're quoting). What they did was fail to find evidence of an effect.* It would be interesting to see the power calculations (I expect there in there somewhere but haven't read the whole thing) for what kind of effect size they powered for. Prevalence was fairly low too, which won't have helped the study power.Philip_Thompson said:
Correction: The trial found and I quote "an imprecise zero" reduction in prevalence for cloth masks. Vaccines work as an intervention, cloth masks are a bad joke and a fashion choice not science at this point.Nigelb said:Reposting this from the last thread - an actual randomised control trial (and a very large one) - on the efficacy of masks, just published.
The conclusions (masks do reduce transmission significantly) might not hold for Delta, but I think the trial is ongoing.
The Impact of Community Masking on COVID-19: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Bangladesh
https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Mask_RCT____Symptomatic_Seropositivity_083121.pdf
[snip]
(I say this as someone not wearing a mask presently except when asked to, which includes e.g. signs on shop doors)
*Again, as I commented before, of an effect of promoting cloth masks. That's the intervention, that's what is tested. As not everyone wore the masks provided and some people in the control groups wore masks, the study will underestimate the efficacy of actually wearing a mask.
What is impressive to me is that just a 40% ish uptake of mask-wearing vs. 10% ish can have a measurable impact on disease prevalence.
And they did find that the cloth masks led to a reduction in COVID symptoms, but (probably) because only 40% agreed to give blood, they couldn't identify an effect for cloth masks on seroprevalence.
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I think one thing that Defi and NFTs have shown is that there is utility in this. Not $10m for a stupid avatar picture utility, but unlike Bitcoin there is now proper real world use cases being deployed e.g. peer to peer lending, finally low cost transactions, which provided regulation doesn't absolutely kill, does have future potential.edmundintokyo said:
That's fair. The benefit is that competing layer 2 teams go much faster than one core dev team. You can start again with a whole competing base layer from whichever team does that fastest at any given moment, but then you have to move the users over. But there are definitely also downsides to the layered approach.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think the question remains is all the "patching" on top of ethereum better than a new L1 solution such Cardona or Polkadot? Or will they ultimately all co-exist with bridges?edmundintokyo said:
It's fair to be jaded with promises of ethereum stuff but tbf layer 2 is actually shipping. Simple payments and token transfers are done and have been working great for a year or so (zksync, loopring), optimistic rollups are shipping (optimism is nearly shipped, arbitrum went live literally yesterday), zkrollups with contract support will almost definitely ship this year (next iteration of zksync).FrancisUrquhart said:
Actually the NFT craze is showing up the massive problem with Ethereum, it can't handle significant traffic. Its so bad now that with these NFT flips, people are often paying $500 per transaction in gas fees (exsctly what crypto is supposed to improve upon compared to traditional banking). Juat like Bitcoin won't become the digital currency in your pocket, as it can't handle the volume of transactions.Pulpstar said:
Particularly Eth and BTC. Those are the big two tbh.Pulpstar said:
Crypto looks positively sane compared with NFTsFrancisUrquhart said:This is rather concerning...
More students turn to crypto investing to plug financial gap
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58409442.amp
Day trading crypto is the highway to ruin.
I switched my DOGE for 0.16 eth, feels more stable
There are all sorts of add-ons to Ethereum to enable expansion of low cost transactions, side chains, off chain, layer 2....but most is still barely working, theoretical or vaperware.
PS Cardano is a hustle, don't touch it with a bargepole. Polkadot is a proper project, another interesting one right now is Solana.1 -
And go back to having invasions and wars with bullets instead? Rather than no wars due to the threat of weapons that by their very existence means we don't need to fight and can be peaceful instead?kinabalu said:
Totally right. One day we'll get there.Foxy said:
Weapons designed for the mass incineration of cities are an evil that should not be held in a civilised country.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
Why would you want that?0 -
Personally I always thought that there were some areas where EU immigration was holding down local wages.MaxPB said:What's been really funny is the same people saying EU workers didn't result in wages being held down for working classes now blaming worker shortages and the resulting wage inflation on Brexit. They can both be true.
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The circumstances where China, Pakistan, or North Korea might chuck one in our direction would be if we disarmed.StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
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So you’re in favour of nuclear proliferation?Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks to freeriding under the shield of protection of those who do have nuclear weapons.Foxy said:
Not sure that is a very ringing endorsement!OldKingCole said:
Don't think Bennet's quite such a risk compared with Netanyahu. Same applies to Biden and Trump.StuartDickson said:
The following people have their fingers on the nuclear buttons:Philip_Thompson said:
But the point is that the deterrent hasn't failed. The nuclear deterrent has been the best thing for peace humanity has ever invented.StuartDickson said:
If the international environment ever deteriorated so far that Pakistan, North Korea or China fire a nuclear weapon at the Yookay then a nuclear “deterrent” will have clearly failed, along with the human species.IshmaelZ said:
When they fire one at us. Are they all going to be this easy?StuartDickson said:
Pray tell under what circumstances Johnson is going to fire a Trident missile at North Korea, China or Pakistan?Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, throwing away nukes in a world where China, Pakistan, and North Korea have them (and Iran are seeking them) would be lunacy.
We had thousands of years of major wars, ever getting more serious, until eventually the "war to end all wars" was followed by WWII ending with the dropping of the atomic bombs.
The only thing that has ensured no further world wars is not NATO, its not the EU, its not diplomacy. It is the nuclear deterrent. It works.
Joe Biden
Vladimir Putin
Boris Johnson
Emmanuel Macron
Xi Jinping
Narendra Modi
Imran Khan
Kim Jong-un
Naftali Bennett
?
?
?
Sleep well tonight. These brave souls are ensuring peace on our planet. What a privilege to live under their paternal wings. World’s greatest ever invention.
Of course many countries without nuclear "deterrent" have enjoyed 75 years of peace, while those with them have all indulged in multiple wars...
The theatre of war has never to my knowledge been in a country with nukes (not counting things like Falkland's since that's not our country). But plenty of countries without nukes have been the theatre of war.0 -
The security of the West rests upon a nuclear defence.4
