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The next G20 leader to leave – politicalbetting.com
The next G20 leader to leave – politicalbetting.com
This is a very interesting market from William Hill and I also like the terms of this bet which makes what happens in certain circumstances. If you look at the list below which shows when each of the next country has their next election you can understand why Suga of Japan is the favourite in this market.
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Dura_Ace said:
"I was surprised to see such an extended debate about my vaccination proclivities on the previous thread. Just so we all know...
2. I choose not to have one because they are tested on animals."
Do we know this for sure? Is it true of all the vaccines?
I'm in conclave until 7pm tonight so I've scheduled a thread to go up around 4pm, so if there's any major breaking news like Raab resigning or Gavin Williamson doing something competent I'm not ignoring it.
I don’t know how the number of SCOTUS Justices is set. I think (from here) there was legislation at some point.
So I am sure it CAN be changed. I don’t think it SHOULD be changed.
Secondly, regarding efficacy I remember posting that a 75% effective vaccine would be a result whereas another poster replied that a 75% vaccine wouldn't leave the shelf, we needed 85% plus.
So we now have vaccines which are more efficacious than expected and have been taken up by a higher percentage of people than expected.
I suggest that the take-away should be to cease hectoring those that choose not to be vaccinated and accept that the situation is the best we could have hoped for and get on with our lives.
Mr. Pioneers, presumably we'll find out by the plume of salmon pink smoke?
Suga seems a reasonable favourite for the second question, there seems to be a head of steam building inside the LDP to get rid of him owing to his poor handling of the Covid crisis - Japan being one of those functioning countries where poor leadership carries consequences.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/g-xatw
He does appear to have May'ed the election.
51.9% is a majority
#China TV overhaul announced today banning mass "vote him/her off the island" type voting. Only a live audience can make selections. Shows training young performers to be stars: banned. Actors with "incorrect" political views: banned. "Effeminate" style male actors: banned.
https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/1433321937778978820?s=20
I wonder what's driving the shift. Could be ideology. Tightening grip because Xi's powerful. Or trying to head off risk.
If they don't care about society in this respect, society shouldn't care for them in this respect. Worse, they spread their poison - not just Covid when they get it, but their false and mendacious reasons for not taking the vaccine. Dura_Ace, Contrarian etc are just adding to the anti-vaxxery twattery online.
(runs for cover).
But since anti-maskers have started moralising against maskers on here, I feel perfectly able to call out the selfish shits who choose not to get vaccinated.
Clearly they don't want democracy being visible in any shape or form.
They don't get into people before they been given to animals.
Drugs companies are making efforts to reduce the amount of animal testing (largely because it's costly, though there is more interest in the ethics of animal testing than previously), but it's both required by law, and scientifically useful to them.
They were horrified, although not particularly pro-animal.
* 50% of mice convulsed and died during the testing process.
They cut up animals before they are let loose on live humans
It has been changed by Congress legislating, more than once. That is not in the least bit controversial.
And before you start going on "yes, but it's a public health hazard!", let's take a look at the broad facts. The people who tend to suffer most from the ant-vaxxers are....the anti-vaxxers. If that is a risk they want to take, then so be it.
What about to whom they spread the virus? The evidence suggests that if you are vaccinated, the risks of serious illness and death are severely limited. Yes, it is not pleasant if you catch it but it might not be pleasant if I caught the flu from someone who didn't receive their flu jab.
Then there is the hypocrisy of it. You want to stop the number of deaths. For example, why don't we start cracking down on those who are obese who have been shown to be disproportionately impacted? Their selfishness - and why shouldn't we call it selfishness under the same principle - is leading to vital resources being used when, if they had kept themselves healthy, the chances of serious illness would have been reduced greatly. But we can't do that because "ooohhh, you are bodyshaming people". It's hypocritical.
Finally, where do you stop with your principle? Shall we ostracise people who drive cars because they are impacting public health by throwing off dangerous particles into the air? What about those who take flights? In many countries, homosexuality is / was illegal because it was seen as detrimental to society, the same with mixed-race marriages in the American South.
On the other hand, TV programmers in #China have been encouraged to vigorously promote traditional Chinese culture and "advanced socialist culture". The public should be guided on the "correct" political direction and correct values via "spiritual leadership".
https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/1433328551030411265?s=20
Data from hospitality technology firm Zonal said one in seven customers have not turned up for a reservation without telling the venue since April.
It said 18-34-year-olds were the "worst offenders" for no-shows, with more than a quarter not honouring bookings.
...
Although younger people were found to be the most likely out of the sample to fail to turn up to bookings, compared to just 1% of those aged 55 and over, younger adults were more frequent bookers and ate out more often.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58413919
Happy that everyone leave it there, but come on Dura, people dont set out their position like that if they give zero fucks, and that's fine.
A bit of time on the simulators, then supervised assisting on the great British public is how it is done.
Anything that long lasting is always controversial to change.
Nut nah, let's just say that people who refuse to take the vaccine during this crisis are selfish shits. It's a great deal simpler. And accurate.
Plus he's not very good, been in office for a year as well.
My hunch is Bolsanaro is the best bet but I need to have a stab at Suga's chance of holding on first.
If Suga holds on I reckon Trudeau has maybe a 40% chance of losing. Then Bolsanaro about 70% chance of losing.
With no better info available to me, WH odds suggest Suga has maybe 40% chance of losing. If so my figures make Trudeau 24% chance of being the winner (.6×.4) and Bolsanaro 25% (.6×.6×.7).
So on those numbers 9/2 bolsanaro is the bet but only just value. But GIGO and all that.
He isn't popular and from memory in the recent past, Japanese leaders don't stay very long - and there is already internal party moves to replace Suga.
FPT: I think the comment is reasonable of a rich country - the systems are not even in place effectively to manage the Irish Air Identification Area, hence RAF overlight, hence the recent dust-up in ROI. I'll give you that it is a little blunt.
I'd also make the same comment about the whole of Western Europe basically since 1950. We act to dangle off USA apron strings, then complain that they won't let us stand on our own feet.
As for NATO being a Cold War relic - we have been back in a Cold War for about the last decade. The suggested alternative?
The statement that we are freeloading off - hiding behind - the EU wrt refugee movements is also defensible imo.
I'd say it's a 60% shot Trudeau is still in office by the end of the month, and if he is he will last another 6-9 months.
Macron is probably about 60% chance to win re-election as well. And then you've got the possibility of "events" over the next 7 months meaning someone else goes, like Suga or even Biden.
So I'm not really attracted by the 8/1 on Macron, but there's a smidgen of value in Trudeau given the Canadian election is now less than 3 weeks away.
He wouldn't have done that if he gave zero fucks and hated everyone, so I take what he says with a pinch of salt.
No Coulport = no Faslane = no nukes
Trudeau has the first election but given what you say is going to remain as PM
So Suga is the value bet as he isn't going to survive until April 2022
The only unknown then is Biden but nothing except illness is going to remember him before November 2022.
The new @Foodanddrinkfed report, shared with
@politicshome, said meat & dairy exports were hit hardest in first 6 months of 2021
Full figures here... https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/post-brexit-trade-down-2-biliion-fall-eu-sales-food-drink-federation-report
The only reason this might be on the table is that the Republicans completely blew away convention in the way they gamed the last two SC appointments - and there justification was no more than 'it is within our power'.
I'm deeply sceptical of plans to change the court numbers, but the sensible alternative - terms limits - would require a constitutional amendment.
So any attempt to use it would be controversial in a way that 'ordinary' acts of congress wouldn't be.
It's what happens when a lot of folk don't like you... https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1433339321688510466/photo/1
It's also interesting to see the POL bases there are around there - Petroleum, Oil, Lubricants - for ships, with the tanks hidden on the hillsides.
Join the livestream.
#AbbaVoyage #ABBA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937
Of course it would be controversial, and even if the Democrats had the numbers, which they don't, I'm sceptical that it would be a useful solution. The point remains that it is within Congress's powers.
https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1433173220937580545
It's obviously selective, but does suggest that Dom is struggling for credibility.
Incidentally, I reckon Nandy is having quite a good Afghanistan crisis, though I don't expect many to agree.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/abortion-rates-by-country
Compared to western countries the abortion rate per 1,000 15-44 women is:
USA 20.8
Australia 19.7
NZ 19.7
UK 17.0
France 16.9
Canada 15.2
Japan 12.3
Italy 10.6
Spain 8.3
Germany 7.8
#Evergrande - China’s and world’s largest RE developer, with $ 15-16bn in offshore debt and more than $300bn in total liability - is on the verge of default and it’s bonds trading at 27c on the dollar. This is not making enough headlines given the systemic risk involved here imho https://t.co/MdgIcshWRx
https://twitter.com/niko_baki/status/1433103289055391750?t=AUxZBty2TYAKzTou6wUZBQ&s=19
They should have invested in NFTs instead....
A side-effect was that a couple of years later I lost my seat and Cruelty Free International (BUAV's successor), who had been impressed that my group had managed to reach agreement, appointed me as Director of Policy, with a mandate to do the same sort of thing globally. We focused on cosmetics as the relatively easy one and I visited 20 countries to talk to policy-makers, including 3 trips to China, where I organised a conference of scientists and civil servants. They were all generally agnostic to start with - "we don't insist on animal testing but the alternatives need to be adequate" - and we made moderate progress in getting a lot of countries to accept non-animal testing for cosmetics, though we didn't get it banned anywhere. I'd still like to see the same sort of review that my group did repeated and actually implemented. There are animals who are suffering for no useful purpose.
More students turn to crypto investing to plug financial gap
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58409442.amp
Day trading crypto is the highway to ruin.
Greggs opens al fresco dining in Stoke
https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/greggs-open-new-bakery-al-5858403
I switched my DOGE for 0.16 eth, feels more stable
Someone got me the Raikkonen biography a year or two ago for Christmas. Normally not a fan of such things but it was quite interesting, not least his understanding of engineering which might be worth a lot to a team. Unsure what Bottas brings in that regard.
There are all sorts of add-ons to Ethereum to enable expansion of low cost transactions, side chains, off chain, layer 2....but most is still barely working, theoretical or vaperware.
Bitcoin has become the "digital gold" of crytpo. Now Ethereum might get patched / these side projects might work, but if they don't there are a number of direct alternatives to Ethereum that by design can handle massive volume, so i think Ethereum is still very risky (in a space that is very risky).