politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now the betting money moves to an IndyRef YES – up in a wee
Comments
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And that someone in Cameron's Government was, unusually and for unknown reasons, involved in changing arrangements...SouthamObserver said:
The narrative changed very quickly after it emerged all the senior political leaders except Cameron had similar messages.Pulpstar said:@Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.
SouthamObserver said:
It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.Pulpstar said:The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.
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Dan Hodges news alert-Bad news for Ed Miliband as Warsi resigns.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28656874#TWEET12014000 -
If any paper had decided to run with the story from the Ed Miliband angle they'd be taking a pasting today.SouthamObserver said:
The narrative changed very quickly after it emerged all the senior political leaders except Cameron had similar messages.Pulpstar said:@Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.
SouthamObserver said:
It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.Pulpstar said:The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.
& Mensch really made a fool of herself on Twitter yesterday.0 -
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 1hHugh said:
And that someone in Cameron's Government was, unusually and for unknown reasons, involved in changing arrangements...SouthamObserver said:
The narrative changed very quickly after it emerged all the senior political leaders except Cameron had similar messages.Pulpstar said:@Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.
SouthamObserver said:
It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.Pulpstar said:The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.
Guardian retract their bold claim that 'only Cameron was allowed to include a personal message on his wreath'. Goodbye conspiracy theory.
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Well of course it did!SouthamObserver said:
The narrative changed very quickly after it emerged all the senior political leaders except Cameron had similar messages.Pulpstar said:@Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.
SouthamObserver said:
It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.Pulpstar said:The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.
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Reads like a story from viz
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716106/Gardeners-Question-Time-caught-race-row.html0 -
Eoin Clarke's OTT hyperbole was just as bad a Mensch tbh.TGOHF said:
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 1hHugh said:
And that someone in Cameron's Government was, unusually and for unknown reasons, involved in changing arrangements...SouthamObserver said:
The narrative changed very quickly after it emerged all the senior political leaders except Cameron had similar messages.Pulpstar said:@Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.
SouthamObserver said:
It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.Pulpstar said:The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.
Guardian retract their bold claim that 'only Cameron was allowed to include a personal message on his wreath'. Goodbye conspiracy theory.
As Cyclefree pointed out here - cock up rather than conspiracy.0 -
I don't think unionism 'necessarily' equates to British nationalism, just much more often than not. The moment someone extols the greatness of Britain, witters on about 'punching above our weight' and starts waving a Union flag, they have become British nationalists.SouthamObserver said:
Not at all. British nationalism certainly exists. I was just interested in understanding why you believe the professor is wrong to assert that unionism does not necessarily equate to British nationalism. Why do you reject his explanation of why he does not consider himself a British nationalist?Theuniondivvie said:
Let me take a wild guess, quoting the prof's own intemperate remarks and referring to British nationalism will be regarded as ill-considered abuse.Stuart_Dickson said:
They will never ever learn.Theuniondivvie said:
If only there was a considered, non-abusive piece to respond to.SouthamObserver said:
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.
'socialist utopia', 'profoundly misguided', 'an impoverished and depleted view of the world', 'deficiencies', 'blinkered', 'ferocity'.
I wonder which side of the debate this master of Olympian detachment is referring to? Still, some amusement is to be gained from Unionists who've just about managed to accept the description of Unionist now trying to push their British nationalism to the back of the closet.
Tompkinson may or may not be a British nationalist, but it's very clear he is desperate not to be defined as such. He wants to construct a vision of an outward looking, internationalist UK (though still wrapped up in the comfort blanket of UK borders), yet the the most significant recent development in the body politic of England is anti EU & isolationist; that just doesn't add up. It's also pretty rich that he floats the idea of Yessers wanting a socialist utopia while he, misty eyed, tries to push UKopia as the best of all possible worlds. In fact anyone I know who wants an independent Scotland has no plans for a utopia, only that Scotland, just possibly, could be a better place than it currently is. British politics are in a pretty dire place if the hope of improvement is automatically categorised as utopianism.
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‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’isam said:Reads like a story from viz
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716106/Gardeners-Question-Time-caught-race-row.html
Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.
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@Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.
I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.
Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.
Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.
Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.0 -
The ivy climbing over my fence is no more than a benefit touristPulpstar said:
‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’isam said:Reads like a story from viz
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716106/Gardeners-Question-Time-caught-race-row.html
Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.0 -
I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.bigjohnowls said:@Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.
I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.
Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.
Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.
Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.0 -
In my experience, cock-ups explain most things.Pulpstar said:
Eoin Clarke's OTT hyperbole was just as bad a Mensch tbh.TGOHF said:
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 1hHugh said:
And that someone in Cameron's Government was, unusually and for unknown reasons, involved in changing arrangements...SouthamObserver said:
The narrative changed very quickly after it emerged all the senior political leaders except Cameron had similar messages.Pulpstar said:@Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.
SouthamObserver said:
It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.Pulpstar said:The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.
Guardian retract their bold claim that 'only Cameron was allowed to include a personal message on his wreath'. Goodbye conspiracy theory.
As Cyclefree pointed out here - cock up rather than conspiracy.
Anyway, despite not being Scottish and not having a vote, I still think we will have a Yes vote. No basis at all for saying this other than:-
1. My natural inclination - were I a voter in this I would probably vote yes simply because self-respect as a nation is an important concept.
2. The "Better Together" campaign has been so relentlessly negative - about how everything would fall apart if Scotland were not in the UK. There's been nothing positive about it all, at least so far as I can see. What is the positive case for being in the United Kingdom - beyond "we must all huddle together for warmth"?
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ProbablyPulpstar said:
I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.bigjohnowls said:@Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.
I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.
Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.
Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.
Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.0 -
Some left-wing academics think Thomas The Tank Engine is the equivalent of Der Sturmer.Pulpstar said:
‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’isam said:Reads like a story from viz
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716106/Gardeners-Question-Time-caught-race-row.html
Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.
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Has he been at the glysophate?isam said:
The ivy climbing over my fence is no more than a benefit touristPulpstar said:
‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’isam said:Reads like a story from viz
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716106/Gardeners-Question-Time-caught-race-row.html
Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.
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Pulpstar said:
‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’isam said:Reads like a story from viz
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716106/Gardeners-Question-Time-caught-race-row.html
Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.
BREAKING NEWS
There are very few black flowers.
God is racist.0 -
Glasgow and surrounding areas elect Labour time after time after time rather than the (more positive in my view) SNP who I'd place at a similiar point on the right-left scale. I think negative campaigning and fear works quite well there (Sadly).Cyclefree said:
2. The "Better Together" campaign has been so relentlessly negative - about how everything would fall apart if Scotland were not in the UK. There's been nothing positive about it all, at least so far as I can see. What is the positive case for being in the United Kingdom - beyond "we must all huddle together for warmth"?Pulpstar said:
Eoin Clarke's OTT hyperbole was just as bad a Mensch tbh.TGOHF said:
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 1hHugh said:
And that someone in Cameron's Government was, unusually and for unknown reasons, involved in changing arrangements...SouthamObserver said:
The narrative changed very quickly after it emerged all the senior political leaders except Cameron had similar messages.Pulpstar said:@Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.
SouthamObserver said:
It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.Pulpstar said:The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.
Guardian retract their bold claim that 'only Cameron was allowed to include a personal message on his wreath'. Goodbye conspiracy theory.
As Cyclefree pointed out here - cock up rather than conspiracy.0 -
Exclusive Huffington Post interview with Baroness Warsi regarding her resignation."The arms exports to Israel must stop"
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/08/04/bw_0_n_5649007.html?1407229825&ncid=tweetlnkushpmg000000670 -
Some right wing politicians think Blackadder is Marxist, pacifist propaganda.Sean_F said:
Some left-wing academics think Thomas The Tank Engine is the equivalent of Der Sturmer.Pulpstar said:
‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’isam said:Reads like a story from viz
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716106/Gardeners-Question-Time-caught-race-row.html
Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.
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Thanks for letting us know.Theuniondivvie said:Re. tonight's debate, the postcode registration for STV's online player will be lifted so anyone anywhere can watch it.
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I give you Aeonium Schwarzkopf and Ophiopogon Nigrescens not to mention blackberries and the black berries of Sarcococca Confusa. There is also black bamboo.David_Evershed said:Pulpstar said:
‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’isam said:Reads like a story from viz
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716106/Gardeners-Question-Time-caught-race-row.html
Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.
BREAKING NEWS
There are very few black flowers.
God is racist.
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Bloody bees, flying into our gardens, pollinating our flowers.0
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Labour 45bigjohnowls said:
ProbablyPulpstar said:
I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.bigjohnowls said:@Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.
I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.
Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.
Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.
Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.
UKIP 25
Con 15
Lib Dem 8
Something like that0 -
Your ARSE looks odds on for another coalition!JackW said:BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 22nd July Projection) :
Con 312 (+3) .. Lab 276 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 9 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority
Labour 50 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold
Changes From 22nd July - Vale of Glamorgan moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
The only thing I'd question is whether, after losing half their seat's, the Lib-Dems would feel they could justify staying in government after such a heavy defeat?
Then again it is the Lib-Dem's we're talking about....
Coalition The Squeal it is! :^O
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Nature commits so many hate crimes.David_Evershed said:Pulpstar said:
‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’isam said:Reads like a story from viz
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716106/Gardeners-Question-Time-caught-race-row.html
Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.
BREAKING NEWS
There are very few black flowers.
God is racist.
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It has a pacifist message, but it's still very funny.Theuniondivvie said:
Some right wing politicians think Blackadder is Marxist, pacifist propaganda.Sean_F said:
Some left-wing academics think Thomas The Tank Engine is the equivalent of Der Sturmer.Pulpstar said:
‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’isam said:Reads like a story from viz
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716106/Gardeners-Question-Time-caught-race-row.html
Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.
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Libdem holds up written pledge in photo op. Has this ever happened before?
http://tinyurl.com/mxyn6j3
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Are you saying The Lib Dems are going to drop 30% between elections, and lose 79% of their support?Pulpstar said:
Labour 45bigjohnowls said:
ProbablyPulpstar said:
I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.bigjohnowls said:@Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.
I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.
Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.
Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.
Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.
UKIP 25
Con 15
Lib Dem 8
Something like that
A seat they held up to 2010?0 -
Surely not his son was black wasn't he?David_Evershed said:Pulpstar said:
‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’isam said:Reads like a story from viz
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716106/Gardeners-Question-Time-caught-race-row.html
Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.
BREAKING NEWS
There are very few black flowers.
God is racist.0 -
Sheffield Central will tell a similiar tale.TheScreamingEagles said:
Are you saying The Lib Dems are going to drop 30% between elections, and lose 79% of their support?Pulpstar said:
Labour 45bigjohnowls said:
ProbablyPulpstar said:
I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.bigjohnowls said:@Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.
I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.
Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.
Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.
Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.
UKIP 25
Con 15
Lib Dem 8
Something like that
Deposit should be safe enough.TheScreamingEagles said:
A seat they held up to 2010?0 -
The Lib Dems have never held Sheffield Central.Pulpstar said:
Sheffield Central will tell a similiar tale.TheScreamingEagles said:
Are you saying The Lib Dems are going to drop 30% between elections, and lose 79% of their support?Pulpstar said:
Labour 45bigjohnowls said:
ProbablyPulpstar said:
I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.bigjohnowls said:@Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.
I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.
Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.
Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.
Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.
UKIP 25
Con 15
Lib Dem 8
Something like that
Deposit should be safe enough.TheScreamingEagles said:
A seat they held up to 2010?0 -
I'm not very confident of the Lib Dems keeping their deposit in Sheffield Central in all honesty.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Lib Dems have never held Sheffield Central.Pulpstar said:
Sheffield Central will tell a similiar tale.TheScreamingEagles said:
Are you saying The Lib Dems are going to drop 30% between elections, and lose 79% of their support?Pulpstar said:
Labour 45bigjohnowls said:
ProbablyPulpstar said:
I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.bigjohnowls said:@Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.
I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.
Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.
Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.
Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.
UKIP 25
Con 15
Lib Dem 8
Something like that
Deposit should be safe enough.TheScreamingEagles said:
A seat they held up to 2010?0 -
Ed Balls fined £900 after failing to stop?
Seems a bit OTT for what looked like a minor "ding"?
Or has he been caught again?0 -
Mehdi Hasan and Baroness Warsi... There's balancevolcanopete said:Exclusive Huffington Post interview with Baroness Warsi regarding her resignation."The arms exports to Israel must stop"
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/08/04/bw_0_n_5649007.html?1407229825&ncid=tweetlnkushpmg000000670 -
Arf...Pulpstar said:
Too far, too fast.Smarmeron said:Ed Balls fined £900 after failing to stop?
Seems a bit OTT for what looked like a minor "ding"?
Or has he been caught again?
If the gardening jokes become tiresome, CIF also claims “pop culture is peddling racism”
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/04/katy-perry-avril-lavigne-pop-culture-peddling-racism
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Electoral Calculus has the new Chesterfield Boundaries resulting in a nominal LD Maj.
CON 7,282 LAB 18,862 LD 19,264 Other 3,394
So I think LAB 23.000 UKIP 13000 CON 6000 LD 6000 would be about right0 -
Is at the lower end of the sentencing guidelines.Smarmeron said:Ed Balls fined £900 after failing to stop?
Seems a bit OTT for what looked like a minor "ding"?
Or has he been caught again?
The max he could have faced is a 5k fine and six months in prison.0 -
I have a black elder, which is attractive against a white wall.Cyclefree said:
I give you Aeonium Schwarzkopf and Ophiopogon Nigrescens not to mention blackberries and the black berries of Sarcococca Confusa. There is also black bamboo.David_Evershed said:Pulpstar said:
‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’isam said:Reads like a story from viz
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716106/Gardeners-Question-Time-caught-race-row.html
Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.
BREAKING NEWS
There are very few black flowers.
God is racist.0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bradford-west-yorkshire-28658217
Ed Balls £950 fine, and 5 penalty points.0 -
"Ed in another car crash" surely could be the Sun/DH headline0
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The headline should be "Balls deep in trouble"bigjohnowls said:"Ed in another car crash" surely could be the Sun/DH headline
0 -
What Cost of Living Crisis?
The number of working people relying on housing benefit to boost their income has doubled in five years, at a cost of billions of pounds to the taxpayer
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/number-of-people-in-work-claiming-housing-benefit-soars-9647752.html0 -
@TheScreamingEagles
Obviously failing to stop can be a serious offence, but in Scotland they tended to be less severe on " minor parking incidents".
Granted, it has been several years since my last RTA.0 -
Just seen Electoral Calculus predicts for Chesterfield
CON 5,324 LAB 21,165 LD 9,241 Other 10,109
0 -
Och Hugh - are you complaining they have got jobs ?Hugh said:What Cost of Living Crisis?
The number of working people relying on housing benefit to boost their income has doubled in five years, at a cost of billions of pounds to the taxpayer
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/number-of-people-in-work-claiming-housing-benefit-soars-9647752.html
"The Department for Work and Pensions says the number of jobless housing benefit claimants has fallen since 2010. "0 -
Ed Balls has more points than a Hornby train set.0
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Oh, what a Balls up.0
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Thanks. There is a list of options on the STV site:Theuniondivvie said:Re. tonight's debate, the postcode registration for STV's online player will be lifted so anyone anywhere can watch it.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/news/284650-how-to-watch-stvs-alex-salmond-vs-alistair-darling-referendum-debate/
0 -
So it would appear.GIN1138 said:
Your ARSE looks odds on for another coalition!JackW said:BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 22nd July Projection) :
Con 312 (+3) .. Lab 276 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 9 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority
Labour 50 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold
Changes From 22nd July - Vale of Glamorgan moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
The only thing I'd question is whether, after losing half their seat's, the Lib-Dems would feel they could justify staying in government after such a heavy defeat?
Then again it is the Lib-Dem's we're talking about....
Coalition The Squeal it is! :^O
The LibDems have to hard headed.
They may have significant influence in government or impotence in opposition.
0 -
Perhaps he could share some with the shadow Home Secretary – what could go wrong?dr_spyn said:Ed Balls has more points than a Hornby train set.
0 -
Julian Assange still in the Ecuadorian Embassy, and Oscar Pistorius still on trial !0
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Is it reading too much into it to wonder whether Warsi's reference to "the way recent decisions are being made" to be a reference to changes at the FO since Hammond took over from Hague?0
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That's how I read it then I remembered thisNeil said:Is it reading too much into it to wonder whether Warsi's reference to "the way recent decisions are being made" to be a reference to changes at the FO since Hammond took over from Hague?
Gaza crisis 'intolerable', says Philip Hammond
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-286285770 -
Lol ! Many must wonder why the culture secretary hasn't resigned.. ?
@Steven_Swinford: George Osborne says Baroness Warsi's decision to resign over Gaza is 'disappointing and frankly unnecessary'.
0 -
@Neil
The resignation letter is on the BBC website, and seems to indicate that, along with a few other of the reshuffled ministers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-286576230 -
But the economic think tank said that for Scotland to be wealthier, it would have to strike a deal with Westminster to repay only half of its population share of the UK’s national debt while receiving almost twice the predicted income from the North Sea.
If Scotland inherited its full population share of the UK’s national debt, as expected, then oil revenues would have to meet the First Minister’s most optimistic possible forecast if it was not to be poorer.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11011844/Scotland-likely-to-be-worse-off-after-independence.html0 -
Come to the PB meet in Manchester next month that Nick Palmer is organising.JackW said:
Mike won't be there.0 -
He's not a real Muslim, he married an infidel.TGOHF said:Lol ! Many must wonder why the culture secretary hasn't resigned.. ?
@Steven_Swinford: George Osborne says Baroness Warsi's decision to resign over Gaza is 'disappointing and frankly unnecessary'.0 -
I couldn't possibly infringe a PB Banning Order .....TheScreamingEagles said:
Come to the PB meet in Manchester next month that Nick Palmer is organising.JackW said:
Mike won't be there.
Whatever next ? .... leaks from my ARSE !!
0 -
Is it me, or does Lady Warsi's resignation contain a number of typos.
Yes, I am aware of the irony.0 -
Oh dear - which circle of hell will he get for that ?TheScreamingEagles said:
He's not a real Muslim, he married an infidel.TGOHF said:Lol ! Many must wonder why the culture secretary hasn't resigned.. ?
@Steven_Swinford: George Osborne says Baroness Warsi's decision to resign over Gaza is 'disappointing and frankly unnecessary'.
Still at least he can separate his job from his sky fairy.
0 -
Re-reading the letter, I think the recent decisions Lady Warsi is talking about the replacement of Dominic Grieve as Attorney-General.
I think he would have said one way or the other if the Israeli actions were war crimes or not.
And everyone would have accepted his decision without complaint. whereas Jeremy Wright lacks the gravitas or legal authority to give such a decision.0 -
@ThescreamingEagles Are you OK with the Diplomacy Game btw - Not heard anything from you
Here is a series of vids to explain the game...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RC_RAQkM7Ek
Still plenty of time yet before the off - In particular you should be talking to Austria, Russia, Italy though...0 -
Same circle of hell as me.TGOHF said:
Oh dear - which circle of hell will he get for that ?TheScreamingEagles said:
He's not a real Muslim, he married an infidel.TGOHF said:Lol ! Many must wonder why the culture secretary hasn't resigned.. ?
@Steven_Swinford: George Osborne says Baroness Warsi's decision to resign over Gaza is 'disappointing and frankly unnecessary'.
Still at least he can separate his job from his sky fairy.0 -
Thanks, I've received a few messages, offering me honest if conflicting advice.Pulpstar said:@ThescreamingEagles Are you OK with the Diplomacy Game btw - Not heard anything from you
Here is a series of vids to explain the game...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=RC_RAQkM7Ek
Still plenty of time yet before the off - In particular you should be talking to Austria, Russia, Italy though...
I'm still familiarising myself with the game0 -
Of course. Sambucus nigra. A lovely plant.foxinsoxuk said:
I have a black elder, which is attractive against a white wall.Cyclefree said:
I give you Aeonium Schwarzkopf and Ophiopogon Nigrescens not to mention blackberries and the black berries of Sarcococca Confusa. There is also black bamboo.David_Evershed said:Pulpstar said:
‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’isam said:Reads like a story from viz
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716106/Gardeners-Question-Time-caught-race-row.html
Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.
BREAKING NEWS
There are very few black flowers.
God is racist.
I rather love the way this thread (some parts of it anyway) have morphed into PoliticalGardening.com!
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Is the moderate wing of the Conservatives ever-so-sore at the cumulative impact of the last reshuffle?0
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Moody's have downgraded the Uk banking system to negative from stable.
0 -
Yes I am.Neil said:Is the moderate wing of the Conservatives ever-so-sore at the cumulative impact of the last reshuffle?
0 -
Sheffield really should be full of easy holds for Labour. They can afford to throw everything at Hallam.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Lib Dems have never held Sheffield Central.Pulpstar said:
Sheffield Central will tell a similiar tale.TheScreamingEagles said:
Are you saying The Lib Dems are going to drop 30% between elections, and lose 79% of their support?Pulpstar said:
Labour 45bigjohnowls said:
ProbablyPulpstar said:
I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.bigjohnowls said:@Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.
I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.
Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.
Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.
Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.
UKIP 25
Con 15
Lib Dem 8
Something like that
Deposit should be safe enough.TheScreamingEagles said:
A seat they held up to 2010?
No surprise with Osborne's comments on Warsi. He never misses an opportunity to tell everyone how much he loves Israel. It's strange because Hammond's comments were pretty strong. What is Cameron's position.
0 -
She may have wanted him to do that but is that the role of a UK Attorney-General? I'm not sure how he can say- definitively - whether the actions of another state or a non-state actor (since there is good evidence suggesting that some of what Hamas is doing may also be a war crime, as the UN has pointed out) are or are not war crimes.TheScreamingEagles said:Re-reading the letter, I think the recent decisions Lady Warsi is talking about the replacement of Dominic Grieve as Attorney-General.
I think he would have said one way or the other if the Israeli actions were war crimes or not.
And everyone would have accepted his decision without complaint. whereas Jeremy Wright lacks the gravitas or legal authority to give such a decision.
Much depends on the intent of the parties and the knowledge they have at the time, which is not material which is necessarily known to the UK which is not a party and has no special knowledge.
He may well have a role opining on whether Britain can arm or provide funds to the parties. There is the question of arms exports. There is also the question of the funds which go, directly or indirectly, to the Palestinian authorities and whether that is used for improper purposes (e.g. to buy arms) or for purposes for which it was not intended. Regrettably some of the money that goes for humanitarian purposes to Palestinians is misused and misappropriated, not least by some of their leaders.
On the general point I agree: the loss of Dominic Grieve was a very very poor decision by Cameron. There is a very good interview with Grieve in the latest Law Society gazette where he points out that if the Tories tried to change the law to say that decisions of the ECHR could only be enforced if Parliament agreed, the new A-G:
"would have to advise civil servants they could not even draft legislation that would be contrary to the ministerial code, which currently requires compliance with the UK's international legal obligations".
Damningly, he goes on: "the electorate are quite clever at detecting what is serious in terms of change and what may just be window-dressing" and goes on to say that if a policy to opt out of the ECHR makes it into the manifesto he will tell voters he cannot support it.0 -
You lot need to get JohnO into the Lords pronto to shore up the moderate wing of the party!TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes I am.Neil said:Is the moderate wing of the Conservatives ever-so-sore at the cumulative impact of the last reshuffle?
To lose one is careless ... to lose Grieve, Willetts, Clarke, Hurd, Duncan etc..
0 -
If Labour are throwing resources at Hallam they are being very foolish, considering there are many more marginal seats in South and West Yorkshire that are much more winnable.FrankBooth said:
Sheffield really should be full of easy holds for Labour. They can afford to throw everything at Hallam.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Lib Dems have never held Sheffield Central.Pulpstar said:
Sheffield Central will tell a similiar tale.TheScreamingEagles said:
Are you saying The Lib Dems are going to drop 30% between elections, and lose 79% of their support?Pulpstar said:
Labour 45bigjohnowls said:
ProbablyPulpstar said:
I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.bigjohnowls said:@Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.
I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.
Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.
Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.
Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.
UKIP 25
Con 15
Lib Dem 8
Something like that
Deposit should be safe enough.TheScreamingEagles said:
A seat they held up to 2010?
No surprise with Osborne's comments on Warsi. He never misses an opportunity to tell everyone how much he loves Israel. It's strange because Hammond's comments were pretty strong. What is Cameron's position.
0 -
My post from a couple of days ago,the all seeing Tyke ;-)
@SeanT
Sean,dont you think Baroness Warsi and Sajid Javid in the cabinet and ear of Cameron as more influence of thinking,if they thought differently,maybe resignation,that would really damage Cameron0 -
Except he didn't mention Israel...FrankBooth said:
No surprise with Osborne's comments on Warsi. He never misses an opportunity to tell everyone how much he loves Israel. It's strange because Hammond's comments were pretty strong. What is Cameron's position.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Lib Dems have never held Sheffield Central.Pulpstar said:
Sheffield Central will tell a similiar tale.TheScreamingEagles said:
Are you saying The Lib Dems are going to drop 30% between elections, and lose 79% of their support?Pulpstar said:
Labour 45bigjohnowls said:
ProbablyPulpstar said:
I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.bigjohnowls said:@Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.
I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.
Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.
Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.
Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.
UKIP 25
Con 15
Lib Dem 8
Something like that
Deposit should be safe enough.TheScreamingEagles said:
A seat they held up to 2010?0 -
Why did you include Sajid Javid in that though? Surely he's coming at this issue from completely the opposite end of the scale from Warsi?Tykejohnno said:My post from a couple of days ago,the all seeing Tyke ;-)
@SeanT
Sean,dont you think Baroness Warsi and Sajid Javid in the cabinet and ear of Cameron as more influence of thinking,if they thought differently,maybe resignation,that would really damage Cameron
0 -
Neil said:
Why did you include Sajid Javid in that though? Surely he's coming at this issue from completely the opposite end of the scale from Warsi?Tykejohnno said:My post from a couple of days ago,the all seeing Tyke ;-)
@SeanT
Sean,dont you think Baroness Warsi and Sajid Javid in the cabinet and ear of Cameron as more influence of thinking,if they thought differently,maybe resignation,that would really damage Cameron
Do we know that ;-)
0 -
We do.Tykejohnno said:Neil said:
Why did you include Sajid Javid in that though? Surely he's coming at this issue from completely the opposite end of the scale from Warsi?Tykejohnno said:My post from a couple of days ago,the all seeing Tyke ;-)
@SeanT
Sean,dont you think Baroness Warsi and Sajid Javid in the cabinet and ear of Cameron as more influence of thinking,if they thought differently,maybe resignation,that would really damage Cameron
Do we know that ;-)
0 -
If Hamas is committing war crimes, is Israel committing a war crime to try to stop the war crimes of Hamas?
Discuss.
Avoid writing both sides of the argument at the same time.0 -
Hamas have killed only 3 Israeli civilians, whereas Netanyahu has killed hundreds of Palestinian civilians.David_Evershed said:If Hamas is committing war crimes, is Israel committing a war crime to try to stop the war crimes of Hamas?
Discuss.
Avoid writing both sides of the argument at the same time.0 -
He is wrong because the whole point is that all power is under the control of Westminster and the Scottish people would like it to be in the control of the Scottish people. How more simple can it be than that.SouthamObserver said:
I have learned that to get a Scottish nationalist to engage in an argument about substantive issues is a task that is almost impossible to achieve. It's a shame really. I'd love to know why you believe the professor is wrong.Stuart_Dickson said:
They will never ever learn.Theuniondivvie said:
If only there was a considered, non-abusive piece to respond to.SouthamObserver said:
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.
'socialist utopia', 'profoundly misguided', 'an impoverished and depleted view of the world', 'deficiencies', 'blinkered', 'ferocity'.
I wonder which side of the debate this master of Olympian detachment is referring to? Still, some amusement is to be gained from Unionists who've just about managed to accept the description of Unionist now trying to push their British nationalism to the back of the closet.
He is happy with his six figure salary and it is f**k you Jack to the rest who cannot influence things, as long he is fat and happy.0 -
Just in case anyone was interested, the debate can be watched online.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/news/284650-how-to-watch-stvs-alex-salmond-vs-alistair-darling-referendum-debate/0 -
Yawn , Dave gets his pal to whinge againTGOHF said:Perhaps they could watch the debate tonight (lol)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/epic/sldot/11012409/Standard-Life-warns-no-clarity-on-Scottish-independence.html
"With the vote on Scottish Independence less than two months away, the company said it did "not believe that further clarity has been provided" on issues raised in February that could materially affect its four million UK customers, shareholders, and staff.
These material issues include what currency will an independent Scotland use, whether it will join the EU, the shape of the monetary system, financial regulation, taxation and the impact of the change on savings and pensions.
The pensions, savings and insurance giant said in February that it was preparing to shift operations and personnel from its Edinburgh headquarters a “precautionary measure to ensure continuity of our businesses’ competitive position”."0 -
Exactly , define you substantive issueHugh said:
What do you consider a "substantive issue", and is it the same as a Yes campaigner / Scottish Nationalist?SouthamObserver said:
I have learned that to get a Scottish nationalist to engage in an argument about substantive issues is a task that is almost impossible to achieve. It's a shame really. I'd love to know why you believe the professor is wrong.Stuart_Dickson said:
They will never ever learn.Theuniondivvie said:
If only there was a considered, non-abusive piece to respond to.SouthamObserver said:
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.
'socialist utopia', 'profoundly misguided', 'an impoverished and depleted view of the world', 'deficiencies', 'blinkered', 'ferocity'.
I wonder which side of the debate this master of Olympian detachment is referring to? Still, some amusement is to be gained from Unionists who've just about managed to accept the description of Unionist now trying to push their British nationalism to the back of the closet.
And how many Scottish Nationalists do you regularly try to engage with, and where? Just on here?
To the extent that your description is accurate, it applies to Unionists as much as Nationalists in my opinion.0 -
Bet Cameron is furious with Warsi. Israel too powerful for the UK government to criticise them.0
-
Ha, ha. I hope to be as wrong as I was about Romney. But this time I fear I may turn out to be right. The certainty of the Yes supporters is very convincing, especially when most of the few No supporters on here who are based in Scotland seem to be less than certain of their chances. Most of all, though, if it does come to a separation let's hope it is a clean one. Years of messy negotiation is not going to help anybody.Pulpstar said:
One to be filed with the Romney predictions in due time. I feel your prediction record won't be adversely affected.SouthamObserver said:I am very bullish on a Yes vote on 18th September. It'll be close, but divorce looks pretty certain to me. Hopefully, it won't be too messy.
0 -
Gaining independence has no relevance to "divorce" and anyone who tries to suggest so is either stupid or mendacious.TheScreamingEagles said:
Divorces are always messy. Especially when assets and liabilities are involved.SouthamObserver said:I am very bullish on a Yes vote on 18th September. It'll be close, but divorce looks pretty certain to me. Hopefully, it won't be too messy.
All the assets are mine, the liabilities are yours kinda thing.
In 1707 we should have signed a pre-nup*
*I know.0 -
Ringing endorsement of Ed M's leadership, not.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/diane-abbott-most-labour-mps-think-ed-miliband-is-set-for-defeat-in-2015-9648965.html0 -
Independence will be in early 2016 so it would be just 18 months of negotiations at most.SouthamObserver said:Years of messy negotiation is not going to help anybody.
0 -
I think I may have been imprecise in my wording.Cyclefree said:
She may have wanted him to do that but is that the role of a UK Attorney-General? I'm not sure how he can say- definitively - whether the actions of another state or a non-state actor (since there is good evidence suggesting that some of what Hamas is doing may also be a war crime, as the UN has pointed out) are or are not war crimes.TheScreamingEagles said:Re-reading the letter, I think the recent decisions Lady Warsi is talking about the replacement of Dominic Grieve as Attorney-General.
I think he would have said one way or the other if the Israeli actions were war crimes or not.
And everyone would have accepted his decision without complaint. whereas Jeremy Wright lacks the gravitas or legal authority to give such a decision.
Much depends on the intent of the parties and the knowledge they have at the time, which is not material which is necessarily known to the UK which is not a party and has no special knowledge.
He may well have a role opining on whether Britain can arm or provide funds to the parties. There is the question of arms exports. There is also the question of the funds which go, directly or indirectly, to the Palestinian authorities and whether that is used for improper purposes (e.g. to buy arms) or for purposes for which it was not intended. Regrettably some of the money that goes for humanitarian purposes to Palestinians is misused and misappropriated, not least by some of their leaders.
On the general point I agree: the loss of Dominic Grieve was a very very poor decision by Cameron. There is a very good interview with Grieve in the latest Law Society gazette where he points out that if the Tories tried to change the law to say that decisions of the ECHR could only be enforced if Parliament agreed, the new A-G:
"would have to advise civil servants they could not even draft legislation that would be contrary to the ministerial code, which currently requires compliance with the UK's international legal obligations".
Damningly, he goes on: "the electorate are quite clever at detecting what is serious in terms of change and what may just be window-dressing" and goes on to say that if a policy to opt out of the ECHR makes it into the manifesto he will tell voters he cannot support it.
She may have wanted the AG to say Israel are breaking international law, so it would be easier to impose sanctions/trade restrictions on Israel.
0
