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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now the betting money moves to an IndyRef YES – up in a wee
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now the betting money moves to an IndyRef YES – up in a week from 14.2% chance to a 25% one
Make no mistake – this is a massive day in the Scottish IndyRef Campaign. For tonight the First Minister of Scotland takes on the leader of “Better Together” the former UK chancellor, Alistair Darling, in a two hour long live TV debate.
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Yet you would not know this from the vast majority of the SNP’s and Yes Scotland’s campaign literature. So much of the campaign for independence has focused on issues other than independence that you really do sometimes wonder if Yes know what they are arguing for at all. On the campaign trail I’ve heard more about austerity, food banks, and the bedroom tax than I have about independence, as if an independent Scotland would not have to worry about balancing the budget, tackling welfare dependency, or making work pay.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com
Oh, and second, like the Separatists on September 19.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11011914/Alex-Salmond-v-Alistair-Darling-who-will-win-the-independence-TV-debate.html
The move by the leaders of the three main parties is an attempt to rubbish claims by Alex Salmond that Westminster will not deliver more devolution if Scots vote ‘no’.
The unprecedented joint declaration comes on the day of a TV debate between Scottish First Minister Mr Salmond and Alistair Darling, the former Labour Chancellor who fronts the pro-union Better Together campaign.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716157/Party-leaders-agree-let-Scots-set-taxes-Move-attempt-rubbish-Salmonds-claims-Westminster-not-offer-powers-following-no-vote.html
3 hours 3 minutes 3 seconds
LD 2010 split:
Cons:18
LAB: 34
LD: 24
UKIP: 12
Green: 8
But like the Yes campaign, we are running out of time and ideas.
Despite me being a Cleggite Orange Booker, I think we need an LD leadership election this autumn.
Cameron, Miliband and Clegg sign up for more Scottish powers ahead of TV debate
- The Prime Minister, his deputy and the Labour leader sign up to a declaration promising further devolution in an attempt to spike Alex Salmond's guns only hours before he contests the first independence referendum TV debate with Alistair Darling
Scotland will be allowed to set its own levels of income tax and benefits if the country rejects independence, David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg will announce today in an unprecedented joint declaration before tonight’s television debate.
... Although bookmakers have made the First Minister clear favourite to win, they have said this does not seem to be filtering through into more punters backing a Yes vote.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11011773/Cameron-Miliband-and-Clegg-sign-up-for-more-Scottish-powers-ahead-of-TV-debate.html
Populus
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sub-sample size = 181
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
Lab 32% (-10)
SNP 28% (+8)
Con 26% (+9)
LD 8% (-11)
UKIP 4% (+3)
Grn 2% (+1)
If, 10 years ago, a PBer had predicted that in the summer of 2014 the Liberal Democrats would regularly be sub 10% whereas support for Scottish independence would regularly be in the mid 40s then they would have faced a torrent of arrogant abuse.
Short-termism is a crippling attribute. Look at the big picture.
(Note: even if the polls are accurate, the current Betfair prices represent vast value for Yes backers, simply because the prices pay little heed to the closeness of the polling.)
Still at least it will be over soon...
- Ralph Topping, who ran the UK's biggest bookmaker, will publicly back the Scottish 'Yes' campaign on Tuesday
http://news.sky.com/story/1313028/ex-william-hill-chief-backs-scottish-yes-vote
LAB: 40
SNP:33
Con: 16
LD: 4
UKIP: 2
Grn: 5
I don't expect tonight to change very much. In fact it is increasingly difficult to think of anything much that is going to change things. Salmond is recalling Parliament today so it would not surprise me if he has thought of another couple of give aways but the fact he can apparently do this in the Union rather undermines the point of it all.
It is easy for the likes of Tomkins on a six figure salary , gold plated pension and friend of the elite who run the show to pontificate and wonder why the peasants are not eating cake.
How will he cope !
Miss DiCanio, those tax moves will either be meaningless or lead to the break-up of the union (unless an English Parliament with commensurate powers is established). We can't have Scottish voters having MPs able to vote on taxation rates that won't apply to Scotland but will to England.
40 minutes
5.8.14 LAB 330 (332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 274 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
Bateman exemplifies one of the Nationalists’ greatest deficiencies in the referendum campaign: so blinkered are they by the ferocity of their own nationalism that they cannot see that their opponents are not themselves nationalist in outlook. This is not “Scotnat v Britnat”, a battle of competing nationalisms. It is Nationalism v Unionism, a battle between those who say “a nation cannot fully exist until it is a state” and those who say “don’t be so daft”. The argument is not Scotland versus Britain — are you Scottish or British. The argument is Scotland separated from Britain or Scotland within a United Kingdom: Scotland alone or Scotland as part of a family of great British nations.
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.
The polls will become interesting once the Scottish schools return a fortnight today and life in Scotland returns to normal.
SIndy - yes 49 no 51, race tightening
GE -
Con 290
Lab 295
Lib 27
UKIP 4
Green 2
NI and Nats 32 (SNP to gain 4-5)
Minoroty government under Ed Miliband, back to the polls in 6 months
PS: and without the EBC bias as well.
The most recent elective performance figures, for May, revealed the English waiting list had exceeded 3m, for the first time since March 2008.
So an extra 500,000 patients waiting over 18 weeks since Lansley gave all the money to GPs to commission health.
http://derekbateman.co.uk/
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 22nd July Projection) :
Con 312 (+3) .. Lab 276 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 9 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority
Labour 50 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold
Changes From 22nd July - Vale of Glamorgan moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
Well at least one Western politician has learnt the lesson of WWI.
Accordingly - "Coalition - the Sequel"
'socialist utopia', 'profoundly misguided', 'an impoverished and depleted view of the world', 'deficiencies', 'blinkered', 'ferocity'.
I wonder which side of the debate this master of Olympian detachment is referring to? Still, some amusement is to be gained from Unionists who've just about managed to accept the description of Unionist now trying to push their British nationalism to the back of the closet.
Mr Dancer No direct comparison as Wales do not collect 18 week figures. On the two figures they do collect one has deteriorated quite badly over the same period (number of waiters over 26 weeks up by 30,000) the other has now started coming down.
As an English voter the tiresome Welsh comparison every time the latest English NHS stat showS the service getting worse is not persuasive. I will bet the position in England gets worse and the 3 million number is even higher by GE 2015.
The 90% target IMHO will still be being breached at GE 2015.
Yes 3
No 1.22
The big money is ca'ing canny.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28637979
If so, he'll remain as F1 boss for a while, but he still has a rapidly approaching expiry rate due to age if nothing else.
See Populus aggregates on their own website.
Otherwise, Martin Baxter lists all the Populus and YG aggregates on his Electoral Calculus Scotland pages, however, he tends to take a few weeks to update that table, so probably better to go direct to source.
Will be powerfully him getting on with his job narrative.
Presumably "blatant opportunism of the worst kind"
What's Warsi's specific problem with government policy? It also seems peculiar to resign over Gaza as Israel appears (only seen the headline on the BBC news website) to be withdrawing.
CON 274 (-1)
LAB 314 (+1)
LIB 27 (-1)
NAT 15 (+1)
UKIP 3
Dumfries & Galloway: Con Gain
Hallam: LD Hold
Inverness, Bairn & Strathspey - SNP Gain
Pudsey: TCTC (Was Con Hold)
Reading West: Lab Gain
Sherwood: Lab Gain (Was Con Hold)
Southampton Itchen: TCTC (Was Con Gain)
Thurrock: UKIP Gain
Torbay - TCTC (Was LD Hold)
New Seat:
Dunbartonshire East: Narrow Lab gain (SNP 2nd)
"German prosecutors say they would accept an offer of $100m (£60m) from Formula 1 chief Bernie Ecclestone to end his trial on bribery charges."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28656050
My Mum's going to be disappointed in Dave.
My attempts to persuade my Mum to vote Tory next year have been dealt a fatal blow.
Would this result win your bet on Tories most votes? (looks very close)
1) Press services on your sky box
2) Scroll down to 'Add channels' (Another menu will appear displaying Frequency, Polarization, Symbol Rate and FEC)
3) Change the frequency to 10906
4) Change the Polarization to "V"
5) Change the Symbol Rate to 22.0
6)Change the FEC number to 5/6
7)Select ''Find channels'' at the bottom of the menu
8)You will now see a list of available channels including STV. Simply highlight STV and press the yellow button. A tick will now appear next to STV. Press "Select" again to store STV.
9)Press "Back Up" several times to come out of all the menus until you get your Sky picture again. ( DON'T PRESS TV)
10)Whenever you wish to watch STV in the future simply press "Services" on your remote control which will bring up the menu. Select "Other Channels" and you will then be able to highlight STV and press "Select" to watch.
Most commendable, although I note much of the content is straying from the dictates of the site deity.
Children can be so burdensome ....
He added: "The worrying thing about the growth in the waiting list is that it shows that demand is rising and will mean in the near future that it could be much harder for the NHS to keep hitting the 90% target. There could be significant breaches of the target, with it falling well below 90%."
It was worrying that referral-to-treatment performance was under such pressure at the same time as the targets to treat patients in A&E units and with cancer were being missed in a growing number of hospitals, he said.
"If the NHS is to keep meeting the 90% target it's going to have to do extra operations and it's not clear where that money would come from. With the number of both performance problems and financial problems rising in the NHS, it's starting to be a bit of a race as to whether the government can get to the general election either by giving the NHS more money or watching NHS performance deteriorate."
I predict the NHS will be an important election issue that will be damaging to the Tories.
That too could shift prices.
IIRC their last poll in June saw No's lead cut by 7
You'll be even more scornful of the Labour party as they decried the extra funding the Coaltion has allocated the NHS.
All the assets are mine, the liabilities are yours kinda thing.
In 1707 we should have signed a pre-nup*
*I know.
And how many Scottish Nationalists do you regularly try to engage with, and where? Just on here?
To the extent that your description is accurate, it applies to Unionists as much as Nationalists in my opinion.
#UK Services sector continues to expand sharply in July and PMI hits 8-month high at 59.1 from 57.7
Lab/Con vote % could depend on the weather on the day - Sunny = Labour, Rainy = Con.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/epic/sldot/11012409/Standard-Life-warns-no-clarity-on-Scottish-independence.html
"With the vote on Scottish Independence less than two months away, the company said it did "not believe that further clarity has been provided" on issues raised in February that could materially affect its four million UK customers, shareholders, and staff.
These material issues include what currency will an independent Scotland use, whether it will join the EU, the shape of the monetary system, financial regulation, taxation and the impact of the change on savings and pensions.
The pensions, savings and insurance giant said in February that it was preparing to shift operations and personnel from its Edinburgh headquarters a “precautionary measure to ensure continuity of our businesses’ competitive position”."