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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now the betting money moves to an IndyRef YES – up in a wee

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Comments

  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    Pulpstar said:

    @Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.

    Pulpstar said:

    The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.

    It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.

    The narrative changed very quickly after it emerged all the senior political leaders except Cameron had similar messages.

    And that someone in Cameron's Government was, unusually and for unknown reasons, involved in changing arrangements...
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Dan Hodges news alert-Bad news for Ed Miliband as Warsi resigns.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28656874#TWEET1201400
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited August 2014

    Pulpstar said:

    @Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.

    Pulpstar said:

    The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.

    It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.

    The narrative changed very quickly after it emerged all the senior political leaders except Cameron had similar messages.

    If any paper had decided to run with the story from the Ed Miliband angle they'd be taking a pasting today.

    & Mensch really made a fool of herself on Twitter yesterday.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Hugh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.

    Pulpstar said:

    The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.

    It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.

    The narrative changed very quickly after it emerged all the senior political leaders except Cameron had similar messages.

    And that someone in Cameron's Government was, unusually and for unknown reasons, involved in changing arrangements...
    Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 1h
    Guardian retract their bold claim that 'only Cameron was allowed to include a personal message on his wreath'. Goodbye conspiracy theory.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Pulpstar said:

    @Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.

    Pulpstar said:

    The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.

    It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.

    The narrative changed very quickly after it emerged all the senior political leaders except Cameron had similar messages.

    Well of course it did!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    TGOHF said:

    Hugh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.

    Pulpstar said:

    The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.

    It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.

    The narrative changed very quickly after it emerged all the senior political leaders except Cameron had similar messages.

    And that someone in Cameron's Government was, unusually and for unknown reasons, involved in changing arrangements...
    Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 1h
    Guardian retract their bold claim that 'only Cameron was allowed to include a personal message on his wreath'. Goodbye conspiracy theory.

    Eoin Clarke's OTT hyperbole was just as bad a Mensch tbh.

    As Cyclefree pointed out here - cock up rather than conspiracy.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,144


    As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.

    If only there was a considered, non-abusive piece to respond to.

    'socialist utopia', 'profoundly misguided', 'an impoverished and depleted view of the world', 'deficiencies', 'blinkered', 'ferocity'.

    I wonder which side of the debate this master of Olympian detachment is referring to? Still, some amusement is to be gained from Unionists who've just about managed to accept the description of Unionist now trying to push their British nationalism to the back of the closet.
    They will never ever learn.
    Let me take a wild guess, quoting the prof's own intemperate remarks and referring to British nationalism will be regarded as ill-considered abuse.

    Not at all. British nationalism certainly exists. I was just interested in understanding why you believe the professor is wrong to assert that unionism does not necessarily equate to British nationalism. Why do you reject his explanation of why he does not consider himself a British nationalist?

    I don't think unionism 'necessarily' equates to British nationalism, just much more often than not. The moment someone extols the greatness of Britain, witters on about 'punching above our weight' and starts waving a Union flag, they have become British nationalists.

    Tompkinson may or may not be a British nationalist, but it's very clear he is desperate not to be defined as such. He wants to construct a vision of an outward looking, internationalist UK (though still wrapped up in the comfort blanket of UK borders), yet the the most significant recent development in the body politic of England is anti EU & isolationist; that just doesn't add up. It's also pretty rich that he floats the idea of Yessers wanting a socialist utopia while he, misty eyed, tries to push UKopia as the best of all possible worlds. In fact anyone I know who wants an independent Scotland has no plans for a utopia, only that Scotland, just possibly, could be a better place than it currently is. British politics are in a pretty dire place if the hope of improvement is automatically categorised as utopianism.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    isam said:
    ‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’

    Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
    White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.



  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    @Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.

    I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.

    Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.

    Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.

    Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:
    ‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’

    Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
    White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.



    The ivy climbing over my fence is no more than a benefit tourist
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    @Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.

    I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.

    Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.

    Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.

    Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.

    I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Hugh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.

    Pulpstar said:

    The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.

    It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.

    The narrative changed very quickly after it emerged all the senior political leaders except Cameron had similar messages.

    And that someone in Cameron's Government was, unusually and for unknown reasons, involved in changing arrangements...
    Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 1h
    Guardian retract their bold claim that 'only Cameron was allowed to include a personal message on his wreath'. Goodbye conspiracy theory.

    Eoin Clarke's OTT hyperbole was just as bad a Mensch tbh.

    As Cyclefree pointed out here - cock up rather than conspiracy.
    In my experience, cock-ups explain most things.

    Anyway, despite not being Scottish and not having a vote, I still think we will have a Yes vote. No basis at all for saying this other than:-

    1. My natural inclination - were I a voter in this I would probably vote yes simply because self-respect as a nation is an important concept.
    2. The "Better Together" campaign has been so relentlessly negative - about how everything would fall apart if Scotland were not in the UK. There's been nothing positive about it all, at least so far as I can see. What is the positive case for being in the United Kingdom - beyond "we must all huddle together for warmth"?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    @Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.

    I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.

    Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.

    Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.

    Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.

    I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.
    Probably
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:
    ‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’

    Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
    White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.
    Some left-wing academics think Thomas The Tank Engine is the equivalent of Der Sturmer.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:
    ‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’

    Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
    White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.



    The ivy climbing over my fence is no more than a benefit tourist
    Has he been at the glysophate?

  • Pulpstar said:

    isam said:
    ‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’

    Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
    White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.




    BREAKING NEWS

    There are very few black flowers.

    God is racist.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Hugh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.

    Pulpstar said:

    The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.

    It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.

    The narrative changed very quickly after it emerged all the senior political leaders except Cameron had similar messages.

    And that someone in Cameron's Government was, unusually and for unknown reasons, involved in changing arrangements...
    Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 1h
    Guardian retract their bold claim that 'only Cameron was allowed to include a personal message on his wreath'. Goodbye conspiracy theory.

    Eoin Clarke's OTT hyperbole was just as bad a Mensch tbh.

    As Cyclefree pointed out here - cock up rather than conspiracy.
    2. The "Better Together" campaign has been so relentlessly negative - about how everything would fall apart if Scotland were not in the UK. There's been nothing positive about it all, at least so far as I can see. What is the positive case for being in the United Kingdom - beyond "we must all huddle together for warmth"?
    Glasgow and surrounding areas elect Labour time after time after time rather than the (more positive in my view) SNP who I'd place at a similiar point on the right-left scale. I think negative campaigning and fear works quite well there (Sadly).
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Exclusive Huffington Post interview with Baroness Warsi regarding her resignation."The arms exports to Israel must stop"

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/08/04/bw_0_n_5649007.html?1407229825&ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,144
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:
    ‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’

    Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
    White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.
    Some left-wing academics think Thomas The Tank Engine is the equivalent of Der Sturmer.

    Some right wing politicians think Blackadder is Marxist, pacifist propaganda.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376

    Re. tonight's debate, the postcode registration for STV's online player will be lifted so anyone anywhere can watch it.

    Thanks for letting us know. :D

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:
    ‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’

    Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
    White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.




    BREAKING NEWS

    There are very few black flowers.

    God is racist.
    I give you Aeonium Schwarzkopf and Ophiopogon Nigrescens not to mention blackberries and the black berries of Sarcococca Confusa. There is also black bamboo.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Bloody bees, flying into our gardens, pollinating our flowers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited August 2014

    Pulpstar said:

    @Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.

    I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.

    Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.

    Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.

    Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.

    I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.
    Probably
    Labour 45
    UKIP 25
    Con 15
    Lib Dem 8

    Something like that
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    dr_spyn said:

    Bloody bees, flying into our gardens, pollinating our flowers.

    And what about that wicked Japanese Knotweed, eh?

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 22nd July Projection) :

    Con 312 (+3) .. Lab 276 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 9 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority
    Labour 50 seats short of a majority
    ......................................................................................

    "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

    Bury North - TCTC
    Pudsey - TCTC
    Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
    Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
    Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
    Ipswich - TCTC
    Watford - TCTC
    Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
    Enfield - TCTC
    Cornwall North - TCTC
    Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
    Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
    Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold

    Changes From 22nd July - Vale of Glamorgan moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold

    TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
    Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
    Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
    .......................................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

    Your ARSE looks odds on for another coalition!

    The only thing I'd question is whether, after losing half their seat's, the Lib-Dems would feel they could justify staying in government after such a heavy defeat?

    Then again it is the Lib-Dem's we're talking about....

    Coalition The Squeal it is! :^O
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:
    ‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’

    Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
    White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.




    BREAKING NEWS

    There are very few black flowers.

    God is racist.
    Nature commits so many hate crimes.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:
    ‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’

    Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
    White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.
    Some left-wing academics think Thomas The Tank Engine is the equivalent of Der Sturmer.

    Some right wing politicians think Blackadder is Marxist, pacifist propaganda.

    It has a pacifist message, but it's still very funny.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,144
    Libdem holds up written pledge in photo op. Has this ever happened before?

    http://tinyurl.com/mxyn6j3
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Cyclefree said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Bloody bees, flying into our gardens, pollinating our flowers.

    And what about that wicked Japanese Knotweed, eh?

    The Chemical Weapons Inspection of the shed reveals that the Knotweed has less than 45 minutes to withdraw its violation of the floral boundary.

  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.

    I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.

    Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.

    Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.

    Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.

    I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.
    Probably
    Labour 45
    UKIP 25
    Con 15
    Lib Dem 8

    Something like that
    Are you saying The Lib Dems are going to drop 30% between elections, and lose 79% of their support?

    A seat they held up to 2010?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:
    ‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’

    Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
    White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.




    BREAKING NEWS

    There are very few black flowers.

    God is racist.
    Surely not his son was black wasn't he?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited August 2014

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.

    I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.

    Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.

    Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.

    Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.

    I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.
    Probably
    Labour 45
    UKIP 25
    Con 15
    Lib Dem 8

    Something like that
    Are you saying The Lib Dems are going to drop 30% between elections, and lose 79% of their support?

    Sheffield Central will tell a similiar tale.



    A seat they held up to 2010?

    Deposit should be safe enough.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.

    I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.

    Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.

    Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.

    Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.

    I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.
    Probably
    Labour 45
    UKIP 25
    Con 15
    Lib Dem 8

    Something like that
    Are you saying The Lib Dems are going to drop 30% between elections, and lose 79% of their support?

    Sheffield Central will tell a similiar tale.



    A seat they held up to 2010?

    Deposit should be safe enough.
    The Lib Dems have never held Sheffield Central.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.

    I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.

    Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.

    Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.

    Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.

    I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.
    Probably
    Labour 45
    UKIP 25
    Con 15
    Lib Dem 8

    Something like that
    Are you saying The Lib Dems are going to drop 30% between elections, and lose 79% of their support?

    Sheffield Central will tell a similiar tale.



    A seat they held up to 2010?

    Deposit should be safe enough.
    The Lib Dems have never held Sheffield Central.
    I'm not very confident of the Lib Dems keeping their deposit in Sheffield Central in all honesty.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Ed Balls fined £900 after failing to stop?
    Seems a bit OTT for what looked like a minor "ding"?
    Or has he been caught again?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Exclusive Huffington Post interview with Baroness Warsi regarding her resignation."The arms exports to Israel must stop"

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/08/04/bw_0_n_5649007.html?1407229825&ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067

    Mehdi Hasan and Baroness Warsi... There's balance
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Smarmeron said:

    Ed Balls fined £900 after failing to stop?
    Seems a bit OTT for what looked like a minor "ding"?
    Or has he been caught again?

    Too far, too fast.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited August 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Smarmeron said:

    Ed Balls fined £900 after failing to stop?
    Seems a bit OTT for what looked like a minor "ding"?
    Or has he been caught again?

    Too far, too fast.
    Arf...

    If the gardening jokes become tiresome, CIF also claims “pop culture is peddling racism”

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/04/katy-perry-avril-lavigne-pop-culture-peddling-racism
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Pulpstar
    It looked more like a quick reversal from his original position? :-)
    The one I saw was more a parking bump, which is why I wonder if he got caught again?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Electoral Calculus has the new Chesterfield Boundaries resulting in a nominal LD Maj.
    CON 7,282 LAB 18,862 LD 19,264 Other 3,394

    So I think LAB 23.000 UKIP 13000 CON 6000 LD 6000 would be about right
  • Smarmeron said:

    Ed Balls fined £900 after failing to stop?
    Seems a bit OTT for what looked like a minor "ding"?
    Or has he been caught again?

    Is at the lower end of the sentencing guidelines.

    The max he could have faced is a 5k fine and six months in prison.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:
    ‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’

    Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
    White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.




    BREAKING NEWS

    There are very few black flowers.

    God is racist.
    I give you Aeonium Schwarzkopf and Ophiopogon Nigrescens not to mention blackberries and the black berries of Sarcococca Confusa. There is also black bamboo.
    I have a black elder, which is attractive against a white wall.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited August 2014
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    "Ed in another car crash" surely could be the Sun/DH headline
  • "Ed in another car crash" surely could be the Sun/DH headline

    The headline should be "Balls deep in trouble"
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    What Cost of Living Crisis?

    The number of working people relying on housing benefit to boost their income has doubled in five years, at a cost of billions of pounds to the taxpayer

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/number-of-people-in-work-claiming-housing-benefit-soars-9647752.html
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles

    Obviously failing to stop can be a serious offence, but in Scotland they tended to be less severe on " minor parking incidents".
    Granted, it has been several years since my last RTA.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Just seen Electoral Calculus predicts for Chesterfield
    CON 5,324 LAB 21,165 LD 9,241 Other 10,109
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Hugh said:

    What Cost of Living Crisis?

    The number of working people relying on housing benefit to boost their income has doubled in five years, at a cost of billions of pounds to the taxpayer

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/number-of-people-in-work-claiming-housing-benefit-soars-9647752.html

    Och Hugh - are you complaining they have got jobs ?

    "The Department for Work and Pensions says the number of jobless housing benefit claimants has fallen since 2010. "
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Ed Balls has more points than a Hornby train set.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Oh, what a Balls up.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Re. tonight's debate, the postcode registration for STV's online player will be lifted so anyone anywhere can watch it.

    Thanks. There is a list of options on the STV site:
    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/news/284650-how-to-watch-stvs-alex-salmond-vs-alistair-darling-referendum-debate/
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 22nd July Projection) :

    Con 312 (+3) .. Lab 276 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 9 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority
    Labour 50 seats short of a majority
    ......................................................................................

    "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

    Bury North - TCTC
    Pudsey - TCTC
    Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
    Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
    Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
    Ipswich - TCTC
    Watford - TCTC
    Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
    Enfield - TCTC
    Cornwall North - TCTC
    Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
    Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
    Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold

    Changes From 22nd July - Vale of Glamorgan moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold

    TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
    Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
    Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
    .......................................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

    Your ARSE looks odds on for another coalition!

    The only thing I'd question is whether, after losing half their seat's, the Lib-Dems would feel they could justify staying in government after such a heavy defeat?

    Then again it is the Lib-Dem's we're talking about....

    Coalition The Squeal it is! :^O
    So it would appear.

    The LibDems have to hard headed.

    They may have significant influence in government or impotence in opposition.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    dr_spyn said:

    Ed Balls has more points than a Hornby train set.

    Perhaps he could share some with the shadow Home Secretary – what could go wrong?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Julian Assange still in the Ecuadorian Embassy, and Oscar Pistorius still on trial !
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    Julian Assange still in the Ecuadorian Embassy, and Oscar Pistorius still on trial !

    And India want Jimmy Anderson banned..
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Is it reading too much into it to wonder whether Warsi's reference to "the way recent decisions are being made" to be a reference to changes at the FO since Hammond took over from Hague?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:

    Julian Assange still in the Ecuadorian Embassy

    Can it really only be two years since those interminably boring Assange debates on pbc? It's the Ecuadorians I feel sorry for.
  • Neil said:

    Is it reading too much into it to wonder whether Warsi's reference to "the way recent decisions are being made" to be a reference to changes at the FO since Hammond took over from Hague?

    That's how I read it then I remembered this

    Gaza crisis 'intolerable', says Philip Hammond

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28628577
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Julian Assange still in the Ecuadorian Embassy, and Oscar Pistorius still on trial !

    And India want Jimmy Anderson banned..
    And Mike has banned me from PB events .....

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lol ! Many must wonder why the culture secretary hasn't resigned.. ?



    @Steven_Swinford: George Osborne says Baroness Warsi's decision to resign over Gaza is 'disappointing and frankly unnecessary'.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Neil
    The resignation letter is on the BBC website, and seems to indicate that, along with a few other of the reshuffled ministers.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28657623
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    But the economic think tank said that for Scotland to be wealthier, it would have to strike a deal with Westminster to repay only half of its population share of the UK’s national debt while receiving almost twice the predicted income from the North Sea.

    If Scotland inherited its full population share of the UK’s national debt, as expected, then oil revenues would have to meet the First Minister’s most optimistic possible forecast if it was not to be poorer.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11011844/Scotland-likely-to-be-worse-off-after-independence.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited August 2014
    JackW said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Julian Assange still in the Ecuadorian Embassy, and Oscar Pistorius still on trial !

    And India want Jimmy Anderson banned..
    And Mike has banned me from PB events .....

    Come to the PB meet in Manchester next month that Nick Palmer is organising.

    Mike won't be there.
  • TGOHF said:

    Lol ! Many must wonder why the culture secretary hasn't resigned.. ?



    @Steven_Swinford: George Osborne says Baroness Warsi's decision to resign over Gaza is 'disappointing and frankly unnecessary'.

    He's not a real Muslim, he married an infidel.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Lol ! Many must wonder why the culture secretary hasn't resigned.. ?

    Why would the culture secretary resign? Isnt he a member of the Conservative Friends of Israel?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Julian Assange still in the Ecuadorian Embassy, and Oscar Pistorius still on trial !

    And India want Jimmy Anderson banned..
    And Mike has banned me from PB events .....

    Come to the PB meet in Manchester next month that Nick Palmer is organising.

    Mike won't be there.
    I couldn't possibly infringe a PB Banning Order .....

    Whatever next ? .... leaks from my ARSE !!

  • Is it me, or does Lady Warsi's resignation contain a number of typos.

    Yes, I am aware of the irony.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Lol ! Many must wonder why the culture secretary hasn't resigned.. ?



    @Steven_Swinford: George Osborne says Baroness Warsi's decision to resign over Gaza is 'disappointing and frankly unnecessary'.

    He's not a real Muslim, he married an infidel.
    Oh dear - which circle of hell will he get for that ?

    Still at least he can separate his job from his sky fairy.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited August 2014
    Re-reading the letter, I think the recent decisions Lady Warsi is talking about the replacement of Dominic Grieve as Attorney-General.

    I think he would have said one way or the other if the Israeli actions were war crimes or not.

    And everyone would have accepted his decision without complaint. whereas Jeremy Wright lacks the gravitas or legal authority to give such a decision.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    @ThescreamingEagles Are you OK with the Diplomacy Game btw - Not heard anything from you

    Here is a series of vids to explain the game...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RC_RAQkM7Ek

    Still plenty of time yet before the off - In particular you should be talking to Austria, Russia, Italy though...
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Lol ! Many must wonder why the culture secretary hasn't resigned.. ?



    @Steven_Swinford: George Osborne says Baroness Warsi's decision to resign over Gaza is 'disappointing and frankly unnecessary'.

    He's not a real Muslim, he married an infidel.
    Oh dear - which circle of hell will he get for that ?

    Still at least he can separate his job from his sky fairy.

    Same circle of hell as me.
  • Pulpstar said:

    @ThescreamingEagles Are you OK with the Diplomacy Game btw - Not heard anything from you

    Here is a series of vids to explain the game...

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=RC_RAQkM7Ek

    Still plenty of time yet before the off - In particular you should be talking to Austria, Russia, Italy though...

    Thanks, I've received a few messages, offering me honest if conflicting advice.

    I'm still familiarising myself with the game
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:
    ‘Gardeners’ Question Time is not the most controversial show on Radio 4, and yet it is layered with, saturated with, racial meanings. The context here is the rise of nationalism. The rise of racist and fascist parties across Europe. Nationalism is about shoring up a fantasy of national integrity. My question is, what feeds nationalism? What makes nationalism powerful?’

    Dr Pitcher said there is a ‘crisis in white identity in multicultural Britain’ caused by the fact that ‘white culture’ is historically associated with racism and far-Right views.
    White people are therefore forced to find other ways of talking about white identity – such as through gardening – so they do not appear to be racist.




    BREAKING NEWS

    There are very few black flowers.

    God is racist.
    I give you Aeonium Schwarzkopf and Ophiopogon Nigrescens not to mention blackberries and the black berries of Sarcococca Confusa. There is also black bamboo.
    I have a black elder, which is attractive against a white wall.
    Of course. Sambucus nigra. A lovely plant.

    I rather love the way this thread (some parts of it anyway) have morphed into PoliticalGardening.com!

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Is the moderate wing of the Conservatives ever-so-sore at the cumulative impact of the last reshuffle?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Moody's have downgraded the Uk banking system to negative from stable.
  • Neil said:

    Is the moderate wing of the Conservatives ever-so-sore at the cumulative impact of the last reshuffle?

    Yes I am.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.

    I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.

    Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.

    Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.

    Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.

    I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.
    Probably
    Labour 45
    UKIP 25
    Con 15
    Lib Dem 8

    Something like that
    Are you saying The Lib Dems are going to drop 30% between elections, and lose 79% of their support?

    Sheffield Central will tell a similiar tale.



    A seat they held up to 2010?

    Deposit should be safe enough.
    The Lib Dems have never held Sheffield Central.
    Sheffield really should be full of easy holds for Labour. They can afford to throw everything at Hallam.

    No surprise with Osborne's comments on Warsi. He never misses an opportunity to tell everyone how much he loves Israel. It's strange because Hammond's comments were pretty strong. What is Cameron's position.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    Re-reading the letter, I think the recent decisions Lady Warsi is talking about the replacement of Dominic Grieve as Attorney-General.

    I think he would have said one way or the other if the Israeli actions were war crimes or not.

    And everyone would have accepted his decision without complaint. whereas Jeremy Wright lacks the gravitas or legal authority to give such a decision.

    She may have wanted him to do that but is that the role of a UK Attorney-General? I'm not sure how he can say- definitively - whether the actions of another state or a non-state actor (since there is good evidence suggesting that some of what Hamas is doing may also be a war crime, as the UN has pointed out) are or are not war crimes.

    Much depends on the intent of the parties and the knowledge they have at the time, which is not material which is necessarily known to the UK which is not a party and has no special knowledge.

    He may well have a role opining on whether Britain can arm or provide funds to the parties. There is the question of arms exports. There is also the question of the funds which go, directly or indirectly, to the Palestinian authorities and whether that is used for improper purposes (e.g. to buy arms) or for purposes for which it was not intended. Regrettably some of the money that goes for humanitarian purposes to Palestinians is misused and misappropriated, not least by some of their leaders.

    On the general point I agree: the loss of Dominic Grieve was a very very poor decision by Cameron. There is a very good interview with Grieve in the latest Law Society gazette where he points out that if the Tories tried to change the law to say that decisions of the ECHR could only be enforced if Parliament agreed, the new A-G:

    "would have to advise civil servants they could not even draft legislation that would be contrary to the ministerial code, which currently requires compliance with the UK's international legal obligations".

    Damningly, he goes on: "the electorate are quite clever at detecting what is serious in terms of change and what may just be window-dressing" and goes on to say that if a policy to opt out of the ECHR makes it into the manifesto he will tell voters he cannot support it.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    Is the moderate wing of the Conservatives ever-so-sore at the cumulative impact of the last reshuffle?

    Yes I am.
    You lot need to get JohnO into the Lords pronto to shore up the moderate wing of the party!

    To lose one is careless ... to lose Grieve, Willetts, Clarke, Hurd, Duncan etc..

  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.

    I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.

    Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.

    Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.

    Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.

    I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.
    Probably
    Labour 45
    UKIP 25
    Con 15
    Lib Dem 8

    Something like that
    Are you saying The Lib Dems are going to drop 30% between elections, and lose 79% of their support?

    Sheffield Central will tell a similiar tale.



    A seat they held up to 2010?

    Deposit should be safe enough.
    The Lib Dems have never held Sheffield Central.
    Sheffield really should be full of easy holds for Labour. They can afford to throw everything at Hallam.

    No surprise with Osborne's comments on Warsi. He never misses an opportunity to tell everyone how much he loves Israel. It's strange because Hammond's comments were pretty strong. What is Cameron's position.

    If Labour are throwing resources at Hallam they are being very foolish, considering there are many more marginal seats in South and West Yorkshire that are much more winnable.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    My post from a couple of days ago,the all seeing Tyke ;-)

    @SeanT

    Sean,dont you think Baroness Warsi and Sajid Javid in the cabinet and ear of Cameron as more influence of thinking,if they thought differently,maybe resignation,that would really damage Cameron
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Pulpstar I used to think LDs would beat UKIP on votes. I thought LD over 10% UKIP under 10%.

    I now think UKIP will probably win that battle unless LAB voters in places where LD are only Tory opposition hold their noses more than I think they are currently saying.

    Looking at this for the last 4 years if I were in this position would have said no chance. As GE2015 gets closer hate to admit I might.

    Fortunately I live in Chesterfield where LAB maj in one of its most marginal seats must be 1/100 thanks to LD joining Government so I dont have to contemplate the terrible dilemma above.

    Overall I think you are right UKIP will beat LD on popular vote but have staked all my GE2015 money on Lab most seats so wont have a financial interest in the 3rd/4th market.

    I can well see UKIP finishing 2nd in Chesterfield.
    Probably
    Labour 45
    UKIP 25
    Con 15
    Lib Dem 8

    Something like that
    Are you saying The Lib Dems are going to drop 30% between elections, and lose 79% of their support?

    Sheffield Central will tell a similiar tale.



    A seat they held up to 2010?

    Deposit should be safe enough.
    The Lib Dems have never held Sheffield Central.
    No surprise with Osborne's comments on Warsi. He never misses an opportunity to tell everyone how much he loves Israel. It's strange because Hammond's comments were pretty strong. What is Cameron's position.

    Except he didn't mention Israel...
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    My post from a couple of days ago,the all seeing Tyke ;-)

    @SeanT

    Sean,dont you think Baroness Warsi and Sajid Javid in the cabinet and ear of Cameron as more influence of thinking,if they thought differently,maybe resignation,that would really damage Cameron

    Why did you include Sajid Javid in that though? Surely he's coming at this issue from completely the opposite end of the scale from Warsi?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Neil said:

    My post from a couple of days ago,the all seeing Tyke ;-)

    @SeanT

    Sean,dont you think Baroness Warsi and Sajid Javid in the cabinet and ear of Cameron as more influence of thinking,if they thought differently,maybe resignation,that would really damage Cameron

    Why did you include Sajid Javid in that though? Surely he's coming at this issue from completely the opposite end of the scale from Warsi?

    Do we know that ;-)
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    My post from a couple of days ago,the all seeing Tyke ;-)

    @SeanT

    Sean,dont you think Baroness Warsi and Sajid Javid in the cabinet and ear of Cameron as more influence of thinking,if they thought differently,maybe resignation,that would really damage Cameron

    Why did you include Sajid Javid in that though? Surely he's coming at this issue from completely the opposite end of the scale from Warsi?

    Do we know that ;-)
    We do.
  • If Hamas is committing war crimes, is Israel committing a war crime to try to stop the war crimes of Hamas?

    Discuss.

    Avoid writing both sides of the argument at the same time.
  • If Hamas is committing war crimes, is Israel committing a war crime to try to stop the war crimes of Hamas?

    Discuss.

    Avoid writing both sides of the argument at the same time.

    Hamas have killed only 3 Israeli civilians, whereas Netanyahu has killed hundreds of Palestinian civilians.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496


    As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.

    If only there was a considered, non-abusive piece to respond to.

    'socialist utopia', 'profoundly misguided', 'an impoverished and depleted view of the world', 'deficiencies', 'blinkered', 'ferocity'.

    I wonder which side of the debate this master of Olympian detachment is referring to? Still, some amusement is to be gained from Unionists who've just about managed to accept the description of Unionist now trying to push their British nationalism to the back of the closet.
    They will never ever learn.

    I have learned that to get a Scottish nationalist to engage in an argument about substantive issues is a task that is almost impossible to achieve. It's a shame really. I'd love to know why you believe the professor is wrong.
    He is wrong because the whole point is that all power is under the control of Westminster and the Scottish people would like it to be in the control of the Scottish people. How more simple can it be than that.
    He is happy with his six figure salary and it is f**k you Jack to the rest who cannot influence things, as long he is fat and happy.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    TGOHF said:

    Perhaps they could watch the debate tonight (lol)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/epic/sldot/11012409/Standard-Life-warns-no-clarity-on-Scottish-independence.html

    "With the vote on Scottish Independence less than two months away, the company said it did "not believe that further clarity has been provided" on issues raised in February that could materially affect its four million UK customers, shareholders, and staff.

    These material issues include what currency will an independent Scotland use, whether it will join the EU, the shape of the monetary system, financial regulation, taxation and the impact of the change on savings and pensions.

    The pensions, savings and insurance giant said in February that it was preparing to shift operations and personnel from its Edinburgh headquarters a “precautionary measure to ensure continuity of our businesses’ competitive position”."

    Yawn , Dave gets his pal to whinge again
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Hugh said:


    As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.

    If only there was a considered, non-abusive piece to respond to.

    'socialist utopia', 'profoundly misguided', 'an impoverished and depleted view of the world', 'deficiencies', 'blinkered', 'ferocity'.

    I wonder which side of the debate this master of Olympian detachment is referring to? Still, some amusement is to be gained from Unionists who've just about managed to accept the description of Unionist now trying to push their British nationalism to the back of the closet.
    They will never ever learn.

    I have learned that to get a Scottish nationalist to engage in an argument about substantive issues is a task that is almost impossible to achieve. It's a shame really. I'd love to know why you believe the professor is wrong.
    What do you consider a "substantive issue", and is it the same as a Yes campaigner / Scottish Nationalist?

    And how many Scottish Nationalists do you regularly try to engage with, and where? Just on here?

    To the extent that your description is accurate, it applies to Unionists as much as Nationalists in my opinion.
    Exactly , define you substantive issue
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Bet Cameron is furious with Warsi. Israel too powerful for the UK government to criticise them.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I am very bullish on a Yes vote on 18th September. It'll be close, but divorce looks pretty certain to me. Hopefully, it won't be too messy.

    One to be filed with the Romney predictions in due time. I feel your prediction record won't be adversely affected.

    Ha, ha. I hope to be as wrong as I was about Romney. But this time I fear I may turn out to be right. The certainty of the Yes supporters is very convincing, especially when most of the few No supporters on here who are based in Scotland seem to be less than certain of their chances. Most of all, though, if it does come to a separation let's hope it is a clean one. Years of messy negotiation is not going to help anybody.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496

    I am very bullish on a Yes vote on 18th September. It'll be close, but divorce looks pretty certain to me. Hopefully, it won't be too messy.

    Divorces are always messy. Especially when assets and liabilities are involved.

    All the assets are mine, the liabilities are yours kinda thing.

    In 1707 we should have signed a pre-nup*

    *I know.
    Gaining independence has no relevance to "divorce" and anyone who tries to suggest so is either stupid or mendacious.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Years of messy negotiation is not going to help anybody.

    Independence will be in early 2016 so it would be just 18 months of negotiations at most.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Re-reading the letter, I think the recent decisions Lady Warsi is talking about the replacement of Dominic Grieve as Attorney-General.

    I think he would have said one way or the other if the Israeli actions were war crimes or not.

    And everyone would have accepted his decision without complaint. whereas Jeremy Wright lacks the gravitas or legal authority to give such a decision.

    She may have wanted him to do that but is that the role of a UK Attorney-General? I'm not sure how he can say- definitively - whether the actions of another state or a non-state actor (since there is good evidence suggesting that some of what Hamas is doing may also be a war crime, as the UN has pointed out) are or are not war crimes.

    Much depends on the intent of the parties and the knowledge they have at the time, which is not material which is necessarily known to the UK which is not a party and has no special knowledge.

    He may well have a role opining on whether Britain can arm or provide funds to the parties. There is the question of arms exports. There is also the question of the funds which go, directly or indirectly, to the Palestinian authorities and whether that is used for improper purposes (e.g. to buy arms) or for purposes for which it was not intended. Regrettably some of the money that goes for humanitarian purposes to Palestinians is misused and misappropriated, not least by some of their leaders.

    On the general point I agree: the loss of Dominic Grieve was a very very poor decision by Cameron. There is a very good interview with Grieve in the latest Law Society gazette where he points out that if the Tories tried to change the law to say that decisions of the ECHR could only be enforced if Parliament agreed, the new A-G:

    "would have to advise civil servants they could not even draft legislation that would be contrary to the ministerial code, which currently requires compliance with the UK's international legal obligations".

    Damningly, he goes on: "the electorate are quite clever at detecting what is serious in terms of change and what may just be window-dressing" and goes on to say that if a policy to opt out of the ECHR makes it into the manifesto he will tell voters he cannot support it.
    I think I may have been imprecise in my wording.

    She may have wanted the AG to say Israel are breaking international law, so it would be easier to impose sanctions/trade restrictions on Israel.

This discussion has been closed.