politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now the betting money moves to an IndyRef YES – up in a wee
Make no mistake – this is a massive day in the Scottish IndyRef Campaign. For tonight the First Minister of Scotland takes on the leader of “Better Together” the former UK chancellor, Alistair Darling, in a two hour long live TV debate.
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First!0
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Posted before, but Prof Tomkins is a thoughtful contributor from the Unionist persuasion:
Yet you would not know this from the vast majority of the SNP’s and Yes Scotland’s campaign literature. So much of the campaign for independence has focused on issues other than independence that you really do sometimes wonder if Yes know what they are arguing for at all. On the campaign trail I’ve heard more about austerity, food banks, and the bedroom tax than I have about independence, as if an independent Scotland would not have to worry about balancing the budget, tackling welfare dependency, or making work pay.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com
Oh, and second, like the Separatists on September 19.0 -
Thirth!0
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Four pundits on Salmond vs Darling:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11011914/Alex-Salmond-v-Alistair-Darling-who-will-win-the-independence-TV-debate.html0 -
David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg have signed a joint declaration that promises more financial powers for Scotland if it rejects independence.
The move by the leaders of the three main parties is an attempt to rubbish claims by Alex Salmond that Westminster will not deliver more devolution if Scots vote ‘no’.
The unprecedented joint declaration comes on the day of a TV debate between Scottish First Minister Mr Salmond and Alistair Darling, the former Labour Chancellor who fronts the pro-union Better Together campaign.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716157/Party-leaders-agree-let-Scots-set-taxes-Move-attempt-rubbish-Salmonds-claims-Westminster-not-offer-powers-following-no-vote.html0 -
Latest ARSE 2015 General Election and JackW Dozen Projections Countdown
3 hours 3 minutes 3 seconds0 -
Latest YouGov / The Sun results 4th August - Con 34%, Lab 38%, LD 6%, UKIP 13%; Green 4, APP -210
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It would appear that irrespective of the participant deemed the ‘winner’, all four pundits agree tonight's debate will not be a game changer. - must admit that short of a complete psychotic meltdown by one or the other, I’m inclined to agree.CarlottaVance said:Four pundits on Salmond vs Darling:
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YouGov
LD 2010 split:
Cons:18
LAB: 34
LD: 24
UKIP: 12
Green: 80 -
Retaining only a quarter of previous support is pretty grim. I yearn for some LD swingback.Financier said:YouGov
LD 2010 split:
Cons:18
LAB: 34
LD: 24
UKIP: 12
Green: 8
But like the Yes campaign, we are running out of time and ideas.
Despite me being a Cleggite Orange Booker, I think we need an LD leadership election this autumn.0 -
As a Red Liberal, I agree.foxinsoxuk said:
Retaining only a quarter of previous support is pretty grim. I yearn for some LD swingback.Financier said:YouGov
LD 2010 split:
Cons:18
LAB: 34
LD: 24
UKIP: 12
Green: 8
But like the Yes campaign, we are running out of time and ideas.
Despite me being a Cleggite Orange Booker, I think we need an LD leadership election this autumn.0 -
This is NOT a good camera angle for Ruth Davidson's legs. Must bookmark this and post whenever Cyberbritnats whine on about Salmond's weight.
Cameron, Miliband and Clegg sign up for more Scottish powers ahead of TV debate
- The Prime Minister, his deputy and the Labour leader sign up to a declaration promising further devolution in an attempt to spike Alex Salmond's guns only hours before he contests the first independence referendum TV debate with Alistair Darling
Scotland will be allowed to set its own levels of income tax and benefits if the country rejects independence, David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg will announce today in an unprecedented joint declaration before tonight’s television debate.
... Although bookmakers have made the First Minister clear favourite to win, they have said this does not seem to be filtering through into more punters backing a Yes vote.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11011773/Cameron-Miliband-and-Clegg-sign-up-for-more-Scottish-powers-ahead-of-TV-debate.html0 -
The Scottish Tories are huge winners from the Better Together campaign. Scottish Labour are getting thumped by their decision to not just hop into bed with the Tories but to shag them like bunnies. It is clear which partner is on top.
Populus
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sub-sample size = 181
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
Lab 32% (-10)
SNP 28% (+8)
Con 26% (+9)
LD 8% (-11)
UKIP 4% (+3)
Grn 2% (+1)0 -
Polls haven't tightened so must be heart over head punters.0
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Extremely poor analogy.foxinsoxuk said:
Retaining only a quarter of previous support is pretty grim. I yearn for some LD swingback.Financier said:YouGov
LD 2010 split:
Cons:18
LAB: 34
LD: 24
UKIP: 12
Green: 8
But like the Yes campaign, we are running out of time and ideas.
Despite me being a Cleggite Orange Booker, I think we need an LD leadership election this autumn.
If, 10 years ago, a PBer had predicted that in the summer of 2014 the Liberal Democrats would regularly be sub 10% whereas support for Scottish independence would regularly be in the mid 40s then they would have faced a torrent of arrogant abuse.
Short-termism is a crippling attribute. Look at the big picture.
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Polls are not the only parameter. Out of several others you must remember that large numbers of ground troops, on both sides, are privy to canvassing results. Some of the ones I have seen are truly mindblowing, especially in C2DE areas. If YES can get these people out to vote then the world is facing a black swan event.TGOHF said:Polls haven't tightened so must be heart over head punters.
(Note: even if the polls are accurate, the current Betfair prices represent vast value for Yes backers, simply because the prices pay little heed to the closeness of the polling.)
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The polling isn't remotely close, there is a solid and consistent lead for "no", the prices reflect this very wellStuart_Dickson said:
(Note: even if the polls are accurate, the current Betfair prices represent vast value for Yes backers, simply because the prices pay little heed to the closeness of the polling.)TGOHF said:Polls haven't tightened so must be heart over head punters.
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Plus Jacks ARSE shows yes well below even 40%..asjohnstone said:
The polling isn't remotely close, there is a solid and consistent lead for "no", the prices reflect this very wellStuart_Dickson said:
(Note: even if the polls are accurate, the current Betfair prices represent vast value for Yes backers, simply because the prices pay little heed to the closeness of the polling.)TGOHF said:Polls haven't tightened so must be heart over head punters.
Still at least it will be over soon...
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Ex-William Hill Chief Backs Scottish Yes Vote
- Ralph Topping, who ran the UK's biggest bookmaker, will publicly back the Scottish 'Yes' campaign on Tuesday
http://news.sky.com/story/1313028/ex-william-hill-chief-backs-scottish-yes-vote0 -
So what? Who cares? I am sure for every person like that there are two who don't.. The whole thing is becoming a huge yawnfest.Stuart_Dickson said:Ex-William Hill Chief Backs Scottish Yes Vote
- Ralph Topping, who ran the UK's biggest bookmaker, will publicly back the Scottish 'Yes' campaign on Tuesday
http://news.sky.com/story/1313028/ex-william-hill-chief-backs-scottish-yes-vote
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Today's YouGov, also Westminster VI, sub-sample size = 141Stuart_Dickson said:The Scottish Tories are huge winners from the Better Together campaign. Scottish Labour are getting thumped by their decision to not just hop into bed with the Tories but to shag them like bunnies. It is clear which partner is on top.
Populus
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sub-sample size = 181
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
Lab 32% (-10)
SNP 28% (+8)
Con 26% (+9)
LD 8% (-11)
UKIP 4% (+3)
Grn 2% (+1)
LAB: 40
SNP:33
Con: 16
LD: 4
UKIP: 2
Grn: 5
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Is that the same Mr Topping who has overseen a disasterous period for Scottish football where the league doesn't even have a sponsor ?Stuart_Dickson said:Ex-William Hill Chief Backs Scottish Yes Vote
- Ralph Topping, who ran the UK's biggest bookmaker, will publicly back the Scottish 'Yes' campaign on Tuesday
http://news.sky.com/story/1313028/ex-william-hill-chief-backs-scottish-yes-vote0 -
Have you done any canvassing Stuart? I have been out a few times and only in Carnoustie was the result close. And frankly if the result is close in Carnoustie then Yes have got a problem. Interestingly that was a more affluent area than the C2DE areas you are talking about.Stuart_Dickson said:
Polls are not the only parameter. Out of several others you must remember that large numbers of ground troops, on both sides, are privy to canvassing results. Some of the ones I have seen are truly mindblowing, especially in C2DE areas. If YES can get these people out to vote then the world is facing a black swan event.TGOHF said:Polls haven't tightened so must be heart over head punters.
(Note: even if the polls are accurate, the current Betfair prices represent vast value for Yes backers, simply because the prices pay little heed to the closeness of the polling.)
I don't expect tonight to change very much. In fact it is increasingly difficult to think of anything much that is going to change things. Salmond is recalling Parliament today so it would not surprise me if he has thought of another couple of give aways but the fact he can apparently do this in the Union rather undermines the point of it all.
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Tomkins is not a thoughtful contributor, he is an out and out unionist who believes in Britain and rule by London elite is the only way. All the claptrap he comes out with applies at least as much if we stay shackled to Westminster. Things are not well and will get worse in the union that is a certainty, who knows in independence.CarlottaVance said:Posted before, but Prof Tomkins is a thoughtful contributor from the Unionist persuasion:
Yet you would not know this from the vast majority of the SNP’s and Yes Scotland’s campaign literature. So much of the campaign for independence has focused on issues other than independence that you really do sometimes wonder if Yes know what they are arguing for at all. On the campaign trail I’ve heard more about austerity, food banks, and the bedroom tax than I have about independence, as if an independent Scotland would not have to worry about balancing the budget, tackling welfare dependency, or making work pay.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com
Oh, and second, like the Separatists on September 19.
It is easy for the likes of Tomkins on a six figure salary , gold plated pension and friend of the elite who run the show to pontificate and wonder why the peasants are not eating cake.0 -
Ha Ha Ha , will that be like previous declarations that they have signed. Not even useful as toilet paper.CarlottaVance said:David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg have signed a joint declaration that promises more financial powers for Scotland if it rejects independence.
The move by the leaders of the three main parties is an attempt to rubbish claims by Alex Salmond that Westminster will not deliver more devolution if Scots vote ‘no’.
The unprecedented joint declaration comes on the day of a TV debate between Scottish First Minister Mr Salmond and Alistair Darling, the former Labour Chancellor who fronts the pro-union Better Together campaign.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2716157/Party-leaders-agree-let-Scots-set-taxes-Move-attempt-rubbish-Salmonds-claims-Westminster-not-offer-powers-following-no-vote.html0 -
An ARSE is an ARSE however , and this one is a big floppy oneTGOHF said:
Plus Jacks ARSE shows yes well below even 40%..asjohnstone said:
The polling isn't remotely close, there is a solid and consistent lead for "no", the prices reflect this very wellStuart_Dickson said:
(Note: even if the polls are accurate, the current Betfair prices represent vast value for Yes backers, simply because the prices pay little heed to the closeness of the polling.)TGOHF said:Polls haven't tightened so must be heart over head punters.
Still at least it will be over soon...0 -
compared to the daily frothing on here over which of two losers might win the next GE at Westminster you have to be jokingSquareRoot said:
So what? Who cares? I am sure for every person like that there are two who don't.. The whole thing is becoming a huge yawnfest.Stuart_Dickson said:Ex-William Hill Chief Backs Scottish Yes Vote
- Ralph Topping, who ran the UK's biggest bookmaker, will publicly back the Scottish 'Yes' campaign on Tuesday
http://news.sky.com/story/1313028/ex-william-hill-chief-backs-scottish-yes-vote0 -
David, you should not base everything on Morningside.DavidL said:
Have you done any canvassing Stuart? I have been out a few times and only in Carnoustie was the result close. And frankly if the result is close in Carnoustie then Yes have got a problem. Interestingly that was a more affluent area than the C2DE areas you are talking about.Stuart_Dickson said:
Polls are not the only parameter. Out of several others you must remember that large numbers of ground troops, on both sides, are privy to canvassing results. Some of the ones I have seen are truly mindblowing, especially in C2DE areas. If YES can get these people out to vote then the world is facing a black swan event.TGOHF said:Polls haven't tightened so must be heart over head punters.
(Note: even if the polls are accurate, the current Betfair prices represent vast value for Yes backers, simply because the prices pay little heed to the closeness of the polling.)
I don't expect tonight to change very much. In fact it is increasingly difficult to think of anything much that is going to change things. Salmond is recalling Parliament today so it would not surprise me if he has thought of another couple of give aways but the fact he can apparently do this in the Union rather undermines the point of it all.0 -
Prince Harry faces the prospect of "turning 30 alone" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2715143/Loneliness-Prince-Harry-Dumped-BOTH-great-loves-jealous-Williams-happy-family-turn-30.html
How will he cope !0 -
The wee Swedish inadequate showing his customary level of gallantry.Stuart_Dickson said:This is NOT a good camera angle for Ruth Davidson's legs. Must bookmark this and post whenever Cyberbritnats whine on about Salmond's weight.
Cameron, Miliband and Clegg sign up for more Scottish powers ahead of TV debate
- The Prime Minister, his deputy and the Labour leader sign up to a declaration promising further devolution in an attempt to spike Alex Salmond's guns only hours before he contests the first independence referendum TV debate with Alistair Darling
Scotland will be allowed to set its own levels of income tax and benefits if the country rejects independence, David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg will announce today in an unprecedented joint declaration before tonight’s television debate.
... Although bookmakers have made the First Minister clear favourite to win, they have said this does not seem to be filtering through into more punters backing a Yes vote.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11011773/Cameron-Miliband-and-Clegg-sign-up-for-more-Scottish-powers-ahead-of-TV-debate.html
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Good morning, everyone.
Miss DiCanio, those tax moves will either be meaningless or lead to the break-up of the union (unless an English Parliament with commensurate powers is established). We can't have Scottish voters having MPs able to vote on taxation rates that won't apply to Scotland but will to England.0 -
Latest ARSE 2015 General Election & JackW Projections Countdown
40 minutes0 -
LATEST WEEKLY BJESUS
5.8.14 LAB 330 (332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 274 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
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GO talking about the debate on R4 now..0
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It is a very good piece and nicely nails the idea that the referendum is a battle between ScotNats and BritNats.CarlottaVance said:Posted before, but Prof Tomkins is a thoughtful contributor from the Unionist persuasion:
Yet you would not know this from the vast majority of the SNP’s and Yes Scotland’s campaign literature. So much of the campaign for independence has focused on issues other than independence that you really do sometimes wonder if Yes know what they are arguing for at all. On the campaign trail I’ve heard more about austerity, food banks, and the bedroom tax than I have about independence, as if an independent Scotland would not have to worry about balancing the budget, tackling welfare dependency, or making work pay.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com
Oh, and second, like the Separatists on September 19.
Bateman exemplifies one of the Nationalists’ greatest deficiencies in the referendum campaign: so blinkered are they by the ferocity of their own nationalism that they cannot see that their opponents are not themselves nationalist in outlook. This is not “Scotnat v Britnat”, a battle of competing nationalisms. It is Nationalism v Unionism, a battle between those who say “a nation cannot fully exist until it is a state” and those who say “don’t be so daft”. The argument is not Scotland versus Britain — are you Scottish or British. The argument is Scotland separated from Britain or Scotland within a United Kingdom: Scotland alone or Scotland as part of a family of great British nations.
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.
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Go read the white paperSouthamObserver said:
It is a very good piece and nicely nails the idea that the referendum is a battle between ScotNats and BritNats.CarlottaVance said:Posted before, but Prof Tomkins is a thoughtful contributor from the Unionist persuasion:
Yet you would not know this from the vast majority of the SNP’s and Yes Scotland’s campaign literature. So much of the campaign for independence has focused on issues other than independence that you really do sometimes wonder if Yes know what they are arguing for at all. On the campaign trail I’ve heard more about austerity, food banks, and the bedroom tax than I have about independence, as if an independent Scotland would not have to worry about balancing the budget, tackling welfare dependency, or making work pay.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com
Oh, and second, like the Separatists on September 19.
Bateman exemplifies one of the Nationalists’ greatest deficiencies in the referendum campaign: so blinkered are they by the ferocity of their own nationalism that they cannot see that their opponents are not themselves nationalist in outlook. This is not “Scotnat v Britnat”, a battle of competing nationalisms. It is Nationalism v Unionism, a battle between those who say “a nation cannot fully exist until it is a state” and those who say “don’t be so daft”. The argument is not Scotland versus Britain — are you Scottish or British. The argument is Scotland separated from Britain or Scotland within a United Kingdom: Scotland alone or Scotland as part of a family of great British nations.
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.0 -
Morning all and looking forward to Eck v Eyebrows this evening. Only weak spot is Bernard Ponsonby who is the host at STV. He is about the weakest of all TV political editors.
The polls will become interesting once the Scottish schools return a fortnight today and life in Scotland returns to normal.0 -
Dyedwoolie prediction update
SIndy - yes 49 no 51, race tightening
GE -
Con 290
Lab 295
Lib 27
UKIP 4
Green 2
NI and Nats 32 (SNP to gain 4-5)
Minoroty government under Ed Miliband, back to the polls in 6 months0 -
Easterross, he is still streets ahead of anybody left at the BBC.Easterross said:Morning all and looking forward to Eck v Eyebrows this evening. Only weak spot is Bernard Ponsonby who is the host at STV. He is about the weakest of all TV political editors.
The polls will become interesting once the Scottish schools return a fortnight today and life in Scotland returns to normal.
PS: and without the EBC bias as well.0 -
The health secretary has announced a “managed breach” of key waiting times targets for several months while the service treats extra patients to tackle its backlog.
The most recent elective performance figures, for May, revealed the English waiting list had exceeded 3m, for the first time since March 2008.
So an extra 500,000 patients waiting over 18 weeks since Lansley gave all the money to GPs to commission health.0 -
Could you refer me to the paragraph or paragraphs in the White Paper that deal with the points raised by Bateman? Thanks in advance.malcolmg said:
Go read the white paperSouthamObserver said:
It is a very good piece and nicely nails the idea that the referendum is a battle between ScotNats and BritNats.CarlottaVance said:Posted before, but Prof Tomkins is a thoughtful contributor from the Unionist persuasion:
Yet you would not know this from the vast majority of the SNP’s and Yes Scotland’s campaign literature. So much of the campaign for independence has focused on issues other than independence that you really do sometimes wonder if Yes know what they are arguing for at all. On the campaign trail I’ve heard more about austerity, food banks, and the bedroom tax than I have about independence, as if an independent Scotland would not have to worry about balancing the budget, tackling welfare dependency, or making work pay.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com
Oh, and second, like the Separatists on September 19.
Bateman exemplifies one of the Nationalists’ greatest deficiencies in the referendum campaign: so blinkered are they by the ferocity of their own nationalism that they cannot see that their opponents are not themselves nationalist in outlook. This is not “Scotnat v Britnat”, a battle of competing nationalisms. It is Nationalism v Unionism, a battle between those who say “a nation cannot fully exist until it is a state” and those who say “don’t be so daft”. The argument is not Scotland versus Britain — are you Scottish or British. The argument is Scotland separated from Britain or Scotland within a United Kingdom: Scotland alone or Scotland as part of a family of great British nations.
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.0 -
Mr. Owls, is that better or worse than Wales?0
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Go read , what did your last servant die of.MonikerDiCanio said:
Could you refer me to the paragraph or paragraphs in the White Paper that deal with the points raised by Bateman? Thanks in advance.malcolmg said:
Go read the white paperSouthamObserver said:
It is a very good piece and nicely nails the idea that the referendum is a battle between ScotNats and BritNats.CarlottaVance said:Posted before, but Prof Tomkins is a thoughtful contributor from the Unionist persuasion:
Yet you would not know this from the vast majority of the SNP’s and Yes Scotland’s campaign literature. So much of the campaign for independence has focused on issues other than independence that you really do sometimes wonder if Yes know what they are arguing for at all. On the campaign trail I’ve heard more about austerity, food banks, and the bedroom tax than I have about independence, as if an independent Scotland would not have to worry about balancing the budget, tackling welfare dependency, or making work pay.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com
Oh, and second, like the Separatists on September 19.
Bateman exemplifies one of the Nationalists’ greatest deficiencies in the referendum campaign: so blinkered are they by the ferocity of their own nationalism that they cannot see that their opponents are not themselves nationalist in outlook. This is not “Scotnat v Britnat”, a battle of competing nationalisms. It is Nationalism v Unionism, a battle between those who say “a nation cannot fully exist until it is a state” and those who say “don’t be so daft”. The argument is not Scotland versus Britain — are you Scottish or British. The argument is Scotland separated from Britain or Scotland within a United Kingdom: Scotland alone or Scotland as part of a family of great British nations.
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.
http://derekbateman.co.uk/0 -
Go read , what did your last servant die of.MonikerDiCanio said:
Could you refer me to the paragraph or paragraphs in the White Paper that deal with the points raised by Bateman? Thanks in advance.malcolmg said:
Go read the white paperSouthamObserver said:
It is a very good piece and nicely nails the idea that the referendum is a battle between ScotNats and BritNats.CarlottaVance said:Posted before, but Prof Tomkins is a thoughtful contributor from the Unionist persuasion:
Yet you would not know this from the vast majority of the SNP’s and Yes Scotland’s campaign literature. So much of the campaign for independence has focused on issues other than independence that you really do sometimes wonder if Yes know what they are arguing for at all. On the campaign trail I’ve heard more about austerity, food banks, and the bedroom tax than I have about independence, as if an independent Scotland would not have to worry about balancing the budget, tackling welfare dependency, or making work pay.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com
Oh, and second, like the Separatists on September 19.
Bateman exemplifies one of the Nationalists’ greatest deficiencies in the referendum campaign: so blinkered are they by the ferocity of their own nationalism that they cannot see that their opponents are not themselves nationalist in outlook. This is not “Scotnat v Britnat”, a battle of competing nationalisms. It is Nationalism v Unionism, a battle between those who say “a nation cannot fully exist until it is a state” and those who say “don’t be so daft”. The argument is not Scotland versus Britain — are you Scottish or British. The argument is Scotland separated from Britain or Scotland within a United Kingdom: Scotland alone or Scotland as part of a family of great British nations.
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.0 -
That'll be the same YouGov that predicted a win for Scottish Labour at the recent Euros. Only two days before voting took place. Epic fail.Financier said:
Today's YouGov, also Westminster VI, sub-sample size = 141Stuart_Dickson said:The Scottish Tories are huge winners from the Better Together campaign. Scottish Labour are getting thumped by their decision to not just hop into bed with the Tories but to shag them like bunnies. It is clear which partner is on top.
Populus
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sub-sample size = 181
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
Lab 32% (-10)
SNP 28% (+8)
Con 26% (+9)
LD 8% (-11)
UKIP 4% (+3)
Grn 2% (+1)
LAB: 40
SNP:33
Con: 16
LD: 4
UKIP: 2
Grn: 5
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BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 22nd July Projection) :
Con 312 (+3) .. Lab 276 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 9 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority
Labour 50 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold
Changes From 22nd July - Vale of Glamorgan moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors0 -
Continuity coalition or supply and confidence?JackW said:BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 22nd July Projection) :
Con 312 (+3) .. Lab 276 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 9 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority
Labour 50 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold
Changes From 22nd July - Vale of Glamorgan moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors0 -
http://original.antiwar.com/paul/2014/08/03/why-wont-obama-just-leave-ukraine-alone/
Well at least one Western politician has learnt the lesson of WWI.0 -
Ochil as a Labour hold, and SNP up to 9... bad night for the Lib Dems in Scotland ?JackW said:BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 22nd July Projection) :
Con 312 (+3) .. Lab 276 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 9 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority
Labour 50 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold
Changes From 22nd July - Vale of Glamorgan moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors0 -
I've never understood the long term political rationale behind "supply and confidence" - All the blame and none of the power.foxinsoxuk said:
Continuity coalition or supply and confidence?JackW said:BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 22nd July Projection) :
Con 312 (+3) .. Lab 276 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 9 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority
Labour 50 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold
Changes From 22nd July - Vale of Glamorgan moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
Accordingly - "Coalition - the Sequel"
0 -
If only there was a considered, non-abusive piece to respond to.SouthamObserver said:
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.
'socialist utopia', 'profoundly misguided', 'an impoverished and depleted view of the world', 'deficiencies', 'blinkered', 'ferocity'.
I wonder which side of the debate this master of Olympian detachment is referring to? Still, some amusement is to be gained from Unionists who've just about managed to accept the description of Unionist now trying to push their British nationalism to the back of the closet.
0 -
UKIP + Green + Lib Dem ~= Conservative in VI % terms - but they won't get as many seats.FalseFlag said:
So Conservatives and UKIP have attracted almost as many 2010 LDs as Labour has, doesn't fit the narrative though does it?Financier said:YouGov
LD 2010 split:
Cons:18
LAB: 34
LD: 24
UKIP: 12
Green: 80 -
People waiting over 18 weeks 2,508,495 in April 2010, the month before the coalition took office. Now over 3 million (20% increase)
Mr Dancer No direct comparison as Wales do not collect 18 week figures. On the two figures they do collect one has deteriorated quite badly over the same period (number of waiters over 26 weeks up by 30,000) the other has now started coming down.
As an English voter the tiresome Welsh comparison every time the latest English NHS stat showS the service getting worse is not persuasive. I will bet the position in England gets worse and the 3 million number is even higher by GE 2015.
The 90% target IMHO will still be being breached at GE 2015.0 -
Mr. Owls, cheers for that answer.0
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WHat is the picture for the last 10 Populus - will give an 1800 sample size, 181 isn't enough.Stuart_Dickson said:The Scottish Tories are huge winners from the Better Together campaign. Scottish Labour are getting thumped by their decision to not just hop into bed with the Tories but to shag them like bunnies. It is clear which partner is on top.
Populus
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sub-sample size = 181
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
Lab 32% (-10)
SNP 28% (+8)
Con 26% (+9)
LD 8% (-11)
UKIP 4% (+3)
Grn 2% (+1)0 -
The bottom has just fallen out of the Betfair market. At the 500 GBP stake level the current prices are:
Yes 3
No 1.22
The big money is ca'ing canny.0 -
As I said ...Theuniondivvie said:
If only there was a considered, non-abusive piece to respond to.SouthamObserver said:
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.
'socialist utopia', 'profoundly misguided', 'an impoverished and depleted view of the world', 'deficiencies', 'blinkered', 'ferocity'.
I wonder which side of the debate this master of Olympian detachment is referring to? Still, some amusement is to be gained from Unionists who've just about managed to accept the description of Unionist now trying to push their British nationalism to the back of the closet.
0 -
F1: the Independent reckons Ecclestone will pay an out-of-court settlement of £60m:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28637979
If so, he'll remain as F1 boss for a while, but he still has a rapidly approaching expiry rate due to age if nothing else.0 -
Just about to drive to airport so signing out.Pulpstar said:
WHat is the picture for the last 10 Populus - will give an 1800 sample size, 181 isn't enough.Stuart_Dickson said:The Scottish Tories are huge winners from the Better Together campaign. Scottish Labour are getting thumped by their decision to not just hop into bed with the Tories but to shag them like bunnies. It is clear which partner is on top.
Populus
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sub-sample size = 181
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
Lab 32% (-10)
SNP 28% (+8)
Con 26% (+9)
LD 8% (-11)
UKIP 4% (+3)
Grn 2% (+1)
See Populus aggregates on their own website.
Otherwise, Martin Baxter lists all the Populus and YG aggregates on his Electoral Calculus Scotland pages, however, he tends to take a few weeks to update that table, so probably better to go direct to source.0 -
GO big opportunity today to bind together northern cities & show a bit more of that one nation Toryism by agreeing the (paltry) £15bn for a more integrated transport system.
Will be powerfully him getting on with his job narrative.0 -
I now think Torbay is Too Close to Call given the recent Lib Dem fallback.0
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They will never ever learn.Theuniondivvie said:
If only there was a considered, non-abusive piece to respond to.SouthamObserver said:
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.
'socialist utopia', 'profoundly misguided', 'an impoverished and depleted view of the world', 'deficiencies', 'blinkered', 'ferocity'.
I wonder which side of the debate this master of Olympian detachment is referring to? Still, some amusement is to be gained from Unionists who've just about managed to accept the description of Unionist now trying to push their British nationalism to the back of the closet.
0 -
Re. tonight's debate, the postcode registration for STV's online player will be lifted so anyone anywhere can watch it.0
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Baroness Warsi resigns saying she can't support government policy on Gaza0
-
Warsi resigns over Government policy on Gaza.
Presumably "blatant opportunism of the worst kind"0 -
Warsi resigns over Gaza0
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Somebody I respect once said Sayeeda Warsi was the worst Tory chairman in history, that was someone who dealt with Jeremy Hanley on a regular abyss during his stint as Tory chairman.0
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I have learned that to get a Scottish nationalist to engage in an argument about substantive issues is a task that is almost impossible to achieve. It's a shame really. I'd love to know why you believe the professor is wrong.Stuart_Dickson said:
They will never ever learn.Theuniondivvie said:
If only there was a considered, non-abusive piece to respond to.SouthamObserver said:
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.
'socialist utopia', 'profoundly misguided', 'an impoverished and depleted view of the world', 'deficiencies', 'blinkered', 'ferocity'.
I wonder which side of the debate this master of Olympian detachment is referring to? Still, some amusement is to be gained from Unionists who've just about managed to accept the description of Unionist now trying to push their British nationalism to the back of the closet.0 -
Bloody militant atheists. Oh, right...
What's Warsi's specific problem with government policy? It also seems peculiar to resign over Gaza as Israel appears (only seen the headline on the BBC news website) to be withdrawing.0 -
Pulpstar's General Election prediction:
CON 274 (-1)
LAB 314 (+1)
LIB 27 (-1)
NAT 15 (+1)
UKIP 3
Dumfries & Galloway: Con Gain
Hallam: LD Hold
Inverness, Bairn & Strathspey - SNP Gain
Pudsey: TCTC (Was Con Hold)
Reading West: Lab Gain
Sherwood: Lab Gain (Was Con Hold)
Southampton Itchen: TCTC (Was Con Gain)
Thurrock: UKIP Gain
Torbay - TCTC (Was LD Hold)
New Seat:
Dunbartonshire East: Narrow Lab gain (SNP 2nd)0 -
Much needed boost for DC ?TheScreamingEagles said:Baroness Warsi resigns saying she can't support government policy on Gaza
0 -
Just a bit more on the Ecclestone business. I really like this line from the BBC:
"German prosecutors say they would accept an offer of $100m (£60m) from Formula 1 chief Bernie Ecclestone to end his trial on bribery charges."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-286560500 -
Let me take a wild guess, quoting the prof's own intemperate remarks and referring to British nationalism will be regarded as ill-considered abuse.Stuart_Dickson said:
They will never ever learn.Theuniondivvie said:
If only there was a considered, non-abusive piece to respond to.SouthamObserver said:
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.
'socialist utopia', 'profoundly misguided', 'an impoverished and depleted view of the world', 'deficiencies', 'blinkered', 'ferocity'.
I wonder which side of the debate this master of Olympian detachment is referring to? Still, some amusement is to be gained from Unionists who've just about managed to accept the description of Unionist now trying to push their British nationalism to the back of the closet.0 -
Nah.TGOHF said:
Much needed boost for DC ?TheScreamingEagles said:Baroness Warsi resigns saying she can't support government policy on Gaza
My Mum's going to be disappointed in Dave.
My attempts to persuade my Mum to vote Tory next year have been dealt a fatal blow.
0 -
So the debate - lay No now at 1.23 , then back when Eck gets a few cheers from placemen in the crowd and the price drifts up to say 1.3 ?
0 -
Is there going to be any post debate polling ?0
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Not at all. British nationalism certainly exists. I was just interested in understanding why you believe the professor is wrong to assert that unionism does not necessarily equate to British nationalism. Why do you reject his explanation of why he does not consider himself a British nationalist?Theuniondivvie said:
Let me take a wild guess, quoting the prof's own intemperate remarks and referring to British nationalism will be regarded as ill-considered abuse.Stuart_Dickson said:
They will never ever learn.Theuniondivvie said:
If only there was a considered, non-abusive piece to respond to.SouthamObserver said:
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.
'socialist utopia', 'profoundly misguided', 'an impoverished and depleted view of the world', 'deficiencies', 'blinkered', 'ferocity'.
I wonder which side of the debate this master of Olympian detachment is referring to? Still, some amusement is to be gained from Unionists who've just about managed to accept the description of Unionist now trying to push their British nationalism to the back of the closet.
0 -
Is Ladbrokes running debate bingo?0
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Wouldn't be surprised if you are very close. I still think LD will hold Torbay and do ok comparatively in LD/CON marginals.Pulpstar said:Pulpstar's General Election prediction:
CON 274 (-1)
LAB 314 (+1)
LIB 27 (-1)
NAT 15 (+1)
UKIP 3
Dumfries & Galloway: Con Gain
Hallam: LD Hold
Inverness, Bairn & Strathspey - SNP Gain
Pudsey: TCTC (Was Con Hold)
Reading West: Lab Gain
Sherwood: Lab Gain (Was Con Hold)
Southampton Itchen: TCTC (Was Con Gain)
Thurrock: UKIP Gain
Torbay - TCTC (Was LD Hold)
Would this result win your bet on Tories most votes? (looks very close)0 -
Any predictions on how high No might drift during the debate - higher than 1.3 ?Pulpstar said:
Canny Mr Dickson recommended a lay of No at 1.18 and stuck about £200 liability on it.TGOHF said:So the debate - lay No now at 1.23 , then back when Eck gets a few cheers from placemen in the crowd and the price drifts up to say 1.3 ?
0 -
For those with sky but not living in Scotland, you can add STV to your sky box and watch the debate live
1) Press services on your sky box
2) Scroll down to 'Add channels' (Another menu will appear displaying Frequency, Polarization, Symbol Rate and FEC)
3) Change the frequency to 10906
4) Change the Polarization to "V"
5) Change the Symbol Rate to 22.0
6)Change the FEC number to 5/6
7)Select ''Find channels'' at the bottom of the menu
8)You will now see a list of available channels including STV. Simply highlight STV and press the yellow button. A tick will now appear next to STV. Press "Select" again to store STV.
9)Press "Back Up" several times to come out of all the menus until you get your Sky picture again. ( DON'T PRESS TV)
10)Whenever you wish to watch STV in the future simply press "Services" on your remote control which will bring up the menu. Select "Other Channels" and you will then be able to highlight STV and press "Select" to watch.0 -
I note a proliferation of disciples of my ARSE this morning.
Most commendable, although I note much of the content is straying from the dictates of the site deity.
Children can be so burdensome ....0 -
I think so Lab Most votes = Lab Majority methinks.bigjohnowls said:
Wouldn't be surprised if you are very close. I still think LD will hold Torbay and do ok comparatively in LD/CON marginals.Pulpstar said:Pulpstar's General Election prediction:
CON 274 (-1)
LAB 314 (+1)
LIB 27 (-1)
NAT 15 (+1)
UKIP 3
Dumfries & Galloway: Con Gain
Hallam: LD Hold
Inverness, Bairn & Strathspey - SNP Gain
Pudsey: TCTC (Was Con Hold)
Reading West: Lab Gain
Sherwood: Lab Gain (Was Con Hold)
Southampton Itchen: TCTC (Was Con Gain)
Thurrock: UKIP Gain
Torbay - TCTC (Was LD Hold)
Would this result win your bet on Tories most votes? (looks very close)0 -
Who said the Germans don't do irony?Morris_Dancer said:Just a bit more on the Ecclestone business. I really like this line from the BBC:
"German prosecutors say they would accept an offer of $100m (£60m) from Formula 1 chief Bernie Ecclestone to end his trial on bribery charges."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-286560500 -
Rchard Murray, the director of policy at the King's Fund, said the fact that the waiting list had topped three million was "a sign of where the NHS is heading".
He added: "The worrying thing about the growth in the waiting list is that it shows that demand is rising and will mean in the near future that it could be much harder for the NHS to keep hitting the 90% target. There could be significant breaches of the target, with it falling well below 90%."
It was worrying that referral-to-treatment performance was under such pressure at the same time as the targets to treat patients in A&E units and with cancer were being missed in a growing number of hospitals, he said.
"If the NHS is to keep meeting the 90% target it's going to have to do extra operations and it's not clear where that money would come from. With the number of both performance problems and financial problems rising in the NHS, it's starting to be a bit of a race as to whether the government can get to the general election either by giving the NHS more money or watching NHS performance deteriorate."
I predict the NHS will be an important election issue that will be damaging to the Tories.0 -
Also don't forget, Scotland's most accurate pollster at the last Holyrood elections will be releasing a new poll at the start of the debate.
That too could shift prices.
IIRC their last poll in June saw No's lead cut by 70 -
My guess is its all part of the Scot Nat narrative that Scotland is effectively an oppressed colony of the English and therefore it is impossible to be both a Scottish Nationalist and a Unionist as Unionism is equivalent to British (hegemonic) nationalism. Or something. But as you observe, its tough to get a dialogue going with most of the Nationalist persuasion - it swiftly collapses into slogans 'its our pound too!'.......SouthamObserver said:
Not at all. British nationalism certainly exists. I was just interested in understanding why you believe the professor is wrong to assert that unionism does not necessarily equate to British nationalism. Why do you reject his explanation of why he does not consider himself a British nationalist?Theuniondivvie said:
Let me take a wild guess, quoting the prof's own intemperate remarks and referring to British nationalism will be regarded as ill-considered abuse.Stuart_Dickson said:
They will never ever learn.Theuniondivvie said:
If only there was a considered, non-abusive piece to respond to.SouthamObserver said:
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.
'socialist utopia', 'profoundly misguided', 'an impoverished and depleted view of the world', 'deficiencies', 'blinkered', 'ferocity'.
I wonder which side of the debate this master of Olympian detachment is referring to? Still, some amusement is to be gained from Unionists who've just about managed to accept the description of Unionist now trying to push their British nationalism to the back of the closet.
0 -
I am very bullish on a Yes vote on 18th September. It'll be close, but divorce looks pretty certain to me. Hopefully, it won't be too messy.0
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@bigjohnowls
You'll be even more scornful of the Labour party as they decried the extra funding the Coaltion has allocated the NHS.0 -
@Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.SouthamObserver said:
It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.Pulpstar said:The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.
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One to be filed with the Romney predictions in due time. I feel your prediction record won't be adversely affected.SouthamObserver said:I am very bullish on a Yes vote on 18th September. It'll be close, but divorce looks pretty certain to me. Hopefully, it won't be too messy.
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Divorces are always messy. Especially when assets and liabilities are involved.SouthamObserver said:I am very bullish on a Yes vote on 18th September. It'll be close, but divorce looks pretty certain to me. Hopefully, it won't be too messy.
All the assets are mine, the liabilities are yours kinda thing.
In 1707 we should have signed a pre-nup*
*I know.
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The narrative changed very quickly after it emerged all the senior political leaders except Cameron had similar messages.Pulpstar said:@Southamobserver - Not a peep from any paper regarding the wreaths.
SouthamObserver said:
It will be horrific for Miliband in the Mail, the Sun and the Express tomorrow.Pulpstar said:The telling point will be how many commentators/papers run with Ed's note as opposed to or with Clegg's as a minor footnote to the article.
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What do you consider a "substantive issue", and is it the same as a Yes campaigner / Scottish Nationalist?SouthamObserver said:
I have learned that to get a Scottish nationalist to engage in an argument about substantive issues is a task that is almost impossible to achieve. It's a shame really. I'd love to know why you believe the professor is wrong.Stuart_Dickson said:
They will never ever learn.Theuniondivvie said:
If only there was a considered, non-abusive piece to respond to.SouthamObserver said:
As I said yesterday, it would be good to read a considered, non-abusive response from someone on the Yes side.
'socialist utopia', 'profoundly misguided', 'an impoverished and depleted view of the world', 'deficiencies', 'blinkered', 'ferocity'.
I wonder which side of the debate this master of Olympian detachment is referring to? Still, some amusement is to be gained from Unionists who've just about managed to accept the description of Unionist now trying to push their British nationalism to the back of the closet.
And how many Scottish Nationalists do you regularly try to engage with, and where? Just on here?
To the extent that your description is accurate, it applies to Unionists as much as Nationalists in my opinion.0 -
Meanwhile...
#UK Services sector continues to expand sharply in July and PMI hits 8-month high at 59.1 from 57.70 -
@bigjohnowls I think vote share % could be TCTC between Lab and Con - UKIP will thrash the Lib Dems in terms of votes I think.
Lab/Con vote % could depend on the weather on the day - Sunny = Labour, Rainy = Con.
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How's President Romney doing these days ??SouthamObserver said:I am very bullish on a Yes vote on 18th September. It'll be close, but divorce looks pretty certain to me. Hopefully, it won't be too messy.
0 -
Perhaps they could watch the debate tonight (lol)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/epic/sldot/11012409/Standard-Life-warns-no-clarity-on-Scottish-independence.html
"With the vote on Scottish Independence less than two months away, the company said it did "not believe that further clarity has been provided" on issues raised in February that could materially affect its four million UK customers, shareholders, and staff.
These material issues include what currency will an independent Scotland use, whether it will join the EU, the shape of the monetary system, financial regulation, taxation and the impact of the change on savings and pensions.
The pensions, savings and insurance giant said in February that it was preparing to shift operations and personnel from its Edinburgh headquarters a “precautionary measure to ensure continuity of our businesses’ competitive position”."0
