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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP soar 4 points in this week’s Ashcroft national poll

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  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    O/T but a discussion arose here this afternoon. What difference would it have made to Britain the the BEF had been overrun in 1914, the Germans had got to Paris and France had surrendered?

    I know all about the scare stories, but would, indeed could, the Germans in 1914-5 have launched an invasion of UK?

    Well for once there was no Churchill as PM or Hitler as Fuhrer.
    Britain might have held on due to the Royal Navy and hoped that Russia would defeat Germany however the Russians would have been defeated even more easier than normal.
    So probably Britain would have negotiated peace by 1916 (due to the absence of fanatics on both sides).

    France would have lost the rest of Lorraine, Morocco, their share of the suez canal and a slice of central africa to Germany, perhaps if Italy joined Germany after the french defeat they would get the rest of Savoy and Tunisia.
    Belgium would be split into Flanders and Wallonne, with Wallone given to Germany.
    Serbia would be partitioned between Austria and Bulgaria.
    Russia would have lost Poland and the baltics which would have become German satellites.

    Britain would probably lose almost nothing as the only non defeated allied power.

    But most importantly the empires of europe would still exist though reformed, as the SPD had control of the german parliament, Karl I would become emperor of Austria in 1916 and the Tsar would be forced by his generals to give power to the russian parliament.
    However defeat would lead France into another commune, Britain would still see a big hit on the liberals for losing the war (Lloyd George could have salvaged it) and fascism would never be invented as the war would be shorter and Mussolini would still be a socialist.
    agree with a lot of that but you missed the biggy, no Soviet Communism so humanity would maybe have another 200 million citizens, mostly in Europe.
    Communism might have risen in France.
    It was close in 1871.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Alanbrooke
    You live in a socialist society at the moment. We argue where the boundary line is.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    @Alanbrooke

    Communism was a movement whose time had come, and a defeat of France would have led to the collapse of Czarism. In 1919 even Germany appeared to be going to the Communists. If the Schlieffen plan had worked, the plan was to send the armies East in September and rout the Russkis by Christmas.

    Probably the best chance for the Czar to survive (or the Hapsburg dual monarchy) would have been by not provoking the war in the fist place. Both saw war as a way to enhance the power of their empires, and both were destroyed by it. Vulnerable, unstable regimes sometimes act as their own worst enemies. Take Hamas and Israel for example...

    In 1915, there was a period when the Czar could have concluded a separate peace, but he did not do so because of the triple entente treaty on only accepting a peace if all three powers agreed.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited August 2014
    We are in danger of being polled to death. I don't believe any of these polls implicity except in as much as they are telling us what people think NOW and of course there are millions of voters away on holiday.

    I only trust ICM. That's the one to watch. It is the gold standard.... the likes of HUtGiHm can laugh all they want, the only poll that matters is in May 2015 and that is months away. There's still plenty of time for things to turn around in Dave's favour. The economic and other indicators etc have the Tories well ahead. its a question of whether this will garner the required votes. I'd say its too close to call at the moment.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302
    edited August 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    You live in a socialist society at the moment. We argue where the boundary line is.

    I don't necessarily dispute that, merely that like France it doesn't work.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779
    I think the key dilemma is whether economic development and political development are related. As economies and societies develop, monetary power moves from a small elite to a wider grouping and the pressure within that grouping for a change of political power becomes overwhelming.

    The counter argument is that as long as the economic goods are being delivered, individuals and groups won't challenge the political order because they win from the status quo. This is the argument used by those watching China and Asia.

    "No taxation without representation" was the clarion call of the American revolutionaries but it has resonated in English history via the Civil War to the Glorious Revolution and beyond.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    In conclusion to the WWI talk, if it never happened or was smaller in scale and shorter in time, things might have been fairly merry in europe for another 30 years at least until the people who lost in that war would seek revenge like in all other wars.

    But it would not have happened if at least one major european government had put its economic and internal political interests ahead of its foreign political commitments.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited August 2014
    @Alanbrooke
    Neither does capitalism, but both have their plus points, is it beyond the wit of mankind to find out the best combination without hitting each other with sticks?
    Nb. - This may not necessarily be the view of the Pragmatic Communist Party
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302

    @Alanbrooke

    Communism was a movement whose time had come, and a defeat of France would have led to the collapse of Czarism. In 1919 even Germany appeared to be going to the Communists. If the Schlieffen plan had worked, the plan was to send the armies East in September and rout the Russkis by Christmas.

    Probably the best chance for the Czar to survive (or the Hapsburg dual monarchy) would have been by not provoking the war in the fist place. Both saw war as a way to enhance the power of their empires, and both were destroyed by it. Vulnerable, unstable regimes sometimes act as their own worst enemies. Take Hamas and Israel for example...

    In 1915, there was a period when the Czar could have concluded a separate peace, but he did not do so because of the triple entente treaty on only accepting a peace if all three powers agreed.

    Even the communists didn't think communisms time had come and certainly not that Russia was ready for it. It took the collapse of the regime plus the manic genius of Lenin to get the Bolsheviks on track.

    In a short sharp war Russia would have gone Liberal and Lenin would still be left in isolation in Switzerland as an exile.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Alanbrooke
    And the whole of Russia would live happily on forever with an absolute monarchy?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302
    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    Neither does capitalism, but both have their plus points, is it beyond the wit of mankind to find out the best combination without hitting each other with sticks?
    Nb. - This may not necessarily be the view of the Pragmatic Communist Party

    I suspect most of Asia will disagree with you, Capitalism has done rather well for them. Capitalism just makes the pie bigger socialism doesn't.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    stodge said:

    I think the key dilemma is whether economic development and political development are related. As economies and societies develop, monetary power moves from a small elite to a wider grouping and the pressure within that grouping for a change of political power becomes overwhelming.

    The counter argument is that as long as the economic goods are being delivered, individuals and groups won't challenge the political order because they win from the status quo. This is the argument used by those watching China and Asia.

    "No taxation without representation" was the clarion call of the American revolutionaries but it has resonated in English history via the Civil War to the Glorious Revolution and beyond.

    I say that rising income inequality and low growth in democracies is proof that feudalism might make a comeback.
    Plus you can't relate Asia with Europe, europe is individualist and asia is homogeneous.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Wake up my fellow semi evolved apes, wars start mainly because...
    A. We have a bigger stick, and can..
    or
    B. We are scared that the ape with the nearly the same sized stick is going to get a bigger one, so we hit first.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302
    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    And the whole of Russia would live happily on forever with an absolute monarchy?

    no, historically the monarchy was dumped and liberal constiution established. So I'd say a constitutional monarchy or a liberal republic.

    The problem the new state faced was the govt didn't have the foresight to seek peace, Lenin did.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    I'm obliged for all the comments re WWI. However what all that does say is that, apart from a probable (and possibly burning) sense of grievance, it would have better for the British people for the Government to have sought for/made peace in about 1916-6. Better in the sense that many fewer would have died.

    Whether we'd have had all the technological advances that we have of course is another matter. And, as the Daily Mail focussed on in July 1914, we'd probably have had a very nasty War of Independence in Ireland.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Smarmeron said:

    Wake up my fellow semi evolved apes, wars start mainly because...
    A. We have a bigger stick, and can..
    or
    B. We are scared that the ape with the nearly the same sized stick is going to get a bigger one, so we hit first.

    You forgot the "that land is my land".
  • Peter Kellner writing in today's Daily Telegraph :

    " David Cameron's prospects for victory in 2015 can’t be guaranteed"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11010212/Poll-data-David-Camerons-prospects-for-victory-in-2015-cant-be-guaranteed.html
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Speedy
    True, but the basic theory holds? ;-)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302

    I'm obliged for all the comments re WWI. However what all that does say is that, apart from a probable (and possibly burning) sense of grievance, it would have better for the British people for the Government to have sought for/made peace in about 1916-6. Better in the sense that many fewer would have died.

    Whether we'd have had all the technological advances that we have of course is another matter. And, as the Daily Mail focussed on in July 1914, we'd probably have had a very nasty War of Independence in Ireland.

    The better approach wasn't peace in 1916, it was to sit out 1914 altogether.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    we'd probably have had a very nasty War of Independence in Ireland.

    Depends on when Home Rule was implemented. Maybe we'd be having a referendum dominated by whether Ireland could remain in a currency union with Britain in the event of full independence! Hard to say which fate (that or a very nasty war of independence) would have been worse.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014

    I'm obliged for all the comments re WWI. However what all that does say is that, apart from a probable (and possibly burning) sense of grievance, it would have better for the British people for the Government to have sought for/made peace in about 1916-6. Better in the sense that many fewer would have died.

    Whether we'd have had all the technological advances that we have of course is another matter. And, as the Daily Mail focussed on in July 1914, we'd probably have had a very nasty War of Independence in Ireland.

    Well that is another aspect, no WWI = civil war in UK.
    Communists might have taken over the british empire, instead of the russian one.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Peter Kellner writing in today's Daily Telegraph :

    " David Cameron's prospects for victory in 2015 can’t be guaranteed"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11010212/Poll-data-David-Camerons-prospects-for-victory-in-2015-cant-be-guaranteed.html

    That's a bit of an understatement. He has virtually no hope of winning a majority and an extremely slim chance of cobbling together another coalition with the LDs.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    I'm annoyed to death with the current obession with the First World War, not because I don't like discussing the First World War but because when I started at secondary school in the 1990s I was desperate to talk about it and almost nobody was interested in it at that time.

    Talk about being born at the wrong point in time.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Smarmeron said:

    @Speedy
    True, but the basic theory holds? ;-)

    No, since the initial reason for having sticks is wanting that land.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Even as a bleeding-heart leftie, I always think the top-rated Daily Mail comments are a good litmus test. If even they agree with the "left-wing" side of the argument on something, then it really must be public opinion.

    If this stupid story gets any widespread public attention at all (which I'm doubtful of), it might help Ed if anything. It reminds me of when the press started pathetically attacking Gordon Brown for writing to parents of dead soldiers in "messy" handwriting, which ended up backfiring and increasing sympathy for Brown because it was so obviously unfair.
    Louise Mensch is being a complete embarrasment on Twitter - the Conservatives have dodged a bullet tbh.
    Correct.

    The only mildly interesting thing about the whole carry on is that is was started on twitter by a Ch4 journalist, and continued on twitter. It is wholly obvious that it is not a tory invention, smear or plot and that that line of counterattack has no traction whatever.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @OldKingCole
    The "Red Clyde Siders" Weren't all that communist, basically they wanted shorter hours to make more space for the returning troops.
    Hardly Das Kapital writ large?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    I'm annoyed to death with the current obession with the First World War, not because I don't like discussing the First World War but because when I started at secondary school in the 1990s I was desperate to talk about it and almost nobody was interested in it at that time.

    Talk about being born at the wrong point in time.

    It was inevitable that the last time anyone on earth would be interested in talking about WWI would be in its 100th anniversary.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    We are in danger of being polled to death. I don't believe any of these polls implicity except in as much as they are telling us what people think NOW and of course there are millions of voters away on holiday.

    I only trust ICM. That's the one to watch. It is the gold standard.... the likes of HUtGiHm can laugh all they want, the only poll that matters is in May 2015 and that is months away. There's still plenty of time for things to turn around in Dave's favour. The economic and other indicators etc have the Tories well ahead. its a question of whether this will garner the required votes. I'd say its too close to call at the moment.

    9 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 3

    If you are a Labour supporter, then either those numbers do not worry you at all, or you are intelligent.
  • So it turns out that all political leaders in the UK apart from David Cameron hold our war dead in contempt and were only in Glasgow for a photo opportunity:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/04/ed-miliband-criticised-impersonal-wreath-first-world-war

    Or maybe not.

    Some people have embarrassed themselves horribly on here today.

    Oh dear.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SouthamObserver
    Except for David of course, who stands alone for respect and British values......
  • Professor Tomkins:

    ....... the Nationalists’ greatest deficiencies in the referendum campaign: so blinkered are they by the ferocity of their own nationalism that they cannot see that their opponents are not themselves nationalist in outlook. This is not “Scotnat v Britnat”, a battle of competing nationalisms. It is Nationalism v Unionism, a battle between those who say “a nation cannot fully exist until it is a state” and those who say “don’t be so daft”. The argument is not Scotland versus Britain — are you Scottish or British. The argument is Scotland separated from Britain or Scotland within a United Kingdom: Scotland alone or Scotland as part of a family of great British nations.

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/08/04/the-definitive-unionist/

    That is a very good article. It would be great to read a considered Yes response.

  • So it turns out that all political leaders in the UK apart from David Cameron hold our war dead in contempt and were only in Glasgow for a photo opportunity:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/04/ed-miliband-criticised-impersonal-wreath-first-world-war

    Or maybe not.

    Some people have embarrassed themselves horribly on here today.

    Oh dear.

    We all pay our respects in different ways and those making political capital out of what was, in the end, a stage managed event that the leaders had little or no control over really are making themselves look foolish today.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758

    So it turns out that all political leaders in the UK apart from David Cameron hold our war dead in contempt and were only in Glasgow for a photo opportunity:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/04/ed-miliband-criticised-impersonal-wreath-first-world-war

    Or maybe not.

    Some people have embarrassed themselves horribly on here today.

    Oh dear.

    Yes there were comments by some PB Tories which were purely designed to provoke a silly partisan spat. Think PB moderator needs to get the naughty seat out for some.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Its the new PB Show.. .Sanctimony at Seven!
  • AndyJS said:

    Peter Kellner writing in today's Daily Telegraph :

    " David Cameron's prospects for victory in 2015 can’t be guaranteed"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11010212/Poll-data-David-Camerons-prospects-for-victory-in-2015-cant-be-guaranteed.html

    That's a bit of an understatement. He has virtually no hope of winning a majority and an extremely slim chance of cobbling together another coalition with the LDs.
    Clearly another non-believer in Stephen Fisher, who currently gives the Tories a 52% chance of being the largest party and a 26% chance of achieving an overall majority at the next GE.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    AndyJS said:

    Peter Kellner writing in today's Daily Telegraph :

    " David Cameron's prospects for victory in 2015 can’t be guaranteed"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11010212/Poll-data-David-Camerons-prospects-for-victory-in-2015-cant-be-guaranteed.html

    That's a bit of an understatement. He has virtually no hope of winning a majority and an extremely slim chance of cobbling together another coalition with the LDs.
    Clearly another non-believer in Stephen Fisher, who currently gives the Tories a 52% chance of being the largest party and a 26% chance of achieving an overall majority at the next GE.
    And the bookies go EVENS and 3/1!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited August 2014

    So it turns out that all political leaders in the UK apart from David Cameron hold our war dead in contempt and were only in Glasgow for a photo opportunity:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/04/ed-miliband-criticised-impersonal-wreath-first-world-war

    Or maybe not.

    Some people have embarrassed themselves horribly on here today.

    Oh dear.

    "It is understood the prime minister’s office asked for a card in advance and it was added to the wreath in the morning. No one was given time on the morning to write a message but some brought their own message or wreath and substituted it on the morning."

    As I suggested on the previous thread...

    a) those "cards" were placeholders for the event organizers to ensure the right people got wreaths

    b) somebody in Cameron's office very sensibly asked about the procedure in advance, and it seems others, less senior than Clegg and Miliband, were also aware. However, many didn't ask and presumed they would be able to do what they always do.

    If I was Clegg, Miliband, etc I would be quite annoyed at my lackeys didn't ask the right questions. They do this kind of thing all the time, you would think that people in their office would a) be told what the sequence of events would be and b) would be alert enough to question things.

    As i said on the previous thread, you get invited to a weddings. Standard questions arise in regards course of events, gifts, cards, etc. You are a bit of wally if you roll up in your DJ, thinking well I've been to a 100 weddings they are all the same and find out the bridge/groom are having an Star Trek themed weddings with all the guests in assorted fancy dress.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    HYUFD said:
    Cameron reshuffles by focus group/opinion poll, and Miliband bases his policies on 35% plans and the damage UKIP will do the Tories at 9%

    Ah such conviction

    How about someone who just bases their policies and decisions on what they believe to be the right thing?
  • isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    Peter Kellner writing in today's Daily Telegraph :

    " David Cameron's prospects for victory in 2015 can’t be guaranteed"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11010212/Poll-data-David-Camerons-prospects-for-victory-in-2015-cant-be-guaranteed.html

    That's a bit of an understatement. He has virtually no hope of winning a majority and an extremely slim chance of cobbling together another coalition with the LDs.
    Clearly another non-believer in Stephen Fisher, who currently gives the Tories a 52% chance of being the largest party and a 26% chance of achieving an overall majority at the next GE.
    And the bookies go EVENS and 3/1!
    You don't suppose Stephen's real name is Paddy do you?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @FrancisUrquhart
    Yes, it really is a great bit of PR, it couldn't have worked out better if it had been planned.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    Peter Kellner writing in today's Daily Telegraph :

    " David Cameron's prospects for victory in 2015 can’t be guaranteed"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11010212/Poll-data-David-Camerons-prospects-for-victory-in-2015-cant-be-guaranteed.html

    That's a bit of an understatement. He has virtually no hope of winning a majority and an extremely slim chance of cobbling together another coalition with the LDs.
    Clearly another non-believer in Stephen Fisher, who currently gives the Tories a 52% chance of being the largest party and a 26% chance of achieving an overall majority at the next GE.
    And the bookies go EVENS and 3/1!
    You don't suppose Stephen's real name is Paddy do you?
    This Election should be great for betting.. as it stands, if UKIP don't win a seat, score less than 9% and less than the LDs I have done my brains!!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,119

    GIN1138 said:

    MikeL said:

    No more Ashcroft National polls until Monday 8 September.

    If he has any sense he will do a complete rethink and revamp the bounces are simply ludicrous .
    I'd like to know which company is carrying out the field work on Lord Ashcroft's behalf.


    I thought it was Populus too? Might be wrong.

    Seems too bouncy for Populus?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    My natural curiosity has started to wonder who were the others that remembered to bring a hand written note, as opposed to those who brought another wreathe and swapped that.....
  • Just a couple of hours or so before we receive YouGov's usual "Black Monday" poll, black that is as far as the Tories are concerned.
    I'm going for a 4% Labour lead ...... anything less should have Grant Shapps & Co. dancing in the streets.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited August 2014
    To follow on the train of thought, we appear to have had several people being surprised that this time they were to lay an "official" wreath instead of their "normal" ones.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    Peter Kellner writing in today's Daily Telegraph :

    " David Cameron's prospects for victory in 2015 can’t be guaranteed"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11010212/Poll-data-David-Camerons-prospects-for-victory-in-2015-cant-be-guaranteed.html

    That's a bit of an understatement. He has virtually no hope of winning a majority and an extremely slim chance of cobbling together another coalition with the LDs.
    Clearly another non-believer in Stephen Fisher, who currently gives the Tories a 52% chance of being the largest party and a 26% chance of achieving an overall majority at the next GE.
    And the bookies go EVENS and 3/1!
    You don't suppose Stephen's real name is Paddy do you?
    This Election should be great for betting.. as it stands, if UKIP don't win a seat, score less than 9% and less than the LDs I have done my brains!!
    Oopps

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:
    Cameron reshuffles by focus group/opinion poll, and Miliband bases his policies on 35% plans and the damage UKIP will do the Tories at 9%

    Ah such conviction

    How about someone who just bases their policies and decisions on what they believe to be the right thing?
    No such person exists.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    I'm annoyed to death with the current obession with the First World War, not because I don't like discussing the First World War but because when I started at secondary school in the 1990s I was desperate to talk about it and almost nobody was interested in it at that time.

    Talk about being born at the wrong point in time.

    I did the causes of the First World War for History 'O' Level. My teacher's tutor had been AJP Taylor...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.

    What utter bollocks. It Ed is too stupid to organise his own wreath, its his own stupid fault. Its just the same as him whining about being snapped looking like a dickhead with a burger in his mouth. These errors are self made.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.

    No, dead wrong. ed inflicts this sort of thing on himself; even if the tories wanted to take advantage of it (they are of course too nice to) they don't have to. Sitting back and watching is enough. Note that the whole thing was started by a Channel4 journalist - unlikely to be a tory stooge.

    Similarly, the nastiest and most consistent hounding of ed of which I am aware at the moment is by the nasty, and usually hugely anti-tory, News Quiz. And the most high-profile commentator to raise the issue of ed's weirdness and image problems in recent weeks, is ed.

    All this is going to be a huge issue in the election campaign, and labour need a better response than to blame the howwid tories when they have patently nothing to do with it.

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,210
    edited August 2014
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MikeL said:

    No more Ashcroft National polls until Monday 8 September.

    If he has any sense he will do a complete rethink and revamp the bounces are simply ludicrous .
    I'd like to know which company is carrying out the field work on Lord Ashcroft's behalf.


    I thought it was Populus too? Might be wrong.

    Seems too bouncy for Populus?
    Surely the bounciness is down to the analysis you apply to the raw data.

  • Shadsy - if you're there - it would be good if Ladbrokes were to offer Share of the UK Vote in 5% bands in much the same way as you do for UKIP.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    JackW said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    Peter Kellner writing in today's Daily Telegraph :

    " David Cameron's prospects for victory in 2015 can’t be guaranteed"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11010212/Poll-data-David-Camerons-prospects-for-victory-in-2015-cant-be-guaranteed.html

    That's a bit of an understatement. He has virtually no hope of winning a majority and an extremely slim chance of cobbling together another coalition with the LDs.
    Clearly another non-believer in Stephen Fisher, who currently gives the Tories a 52% chance of being the largest party and a 26% chance of achieving an overall majority at the next GE.
    And the bookies go EVENS and 3/1!
    You don't suppose Stephen's real name is Paddy do you?
    This Election should be great for betting.. as it stands, if UKIP don't win a seat, score less than 9% and less than the LDs I have done my brains!!
    Oopps

    Well not really as I can get out of all the positions for a profit ;)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    Peter Kellner writing in today's Daily Telegraph :

    " David Cameron's prospects for victory in 2015 can’t be guaranteed"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11010212/Poll-data-David-Camerons-prospects-for-victory-in-2015-cant-be-guaranteed.html

    That's a bit of an understatement. He has virtually no hope of winning a majority and an extremely slim chance of cobbling together another coalition with the LDs.
    Clearly another non-believer in Stephen Fisher, who currently gives the Tories a 52% chance of being the largest party and a 26% chance of achieving an overall majority at the next GE.
    And the bookies go EVENS and 3/1!
    You don't suppose Stephen's real name is Paddy do you?
    This Election should be great for betting.. as it stands, if UKIP don't win a seat, score less than 9% and less than the LDs I have done my brains!!
    Oopps

    Well not really as I can get out of all the positions for a profit ;)
    Not so Oopps

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @volcanopete

    'It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,'

    So the bacon sandwich,The Sun,the photo op with Obama and to-day was all Tory bullying,get real.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.

    Are you saying that the Tories had a cunning plan?
  • RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm annoyed to death with the current obession with the First World War, not because I don't like discussing the First World War but because when I started at secondary school in the 1990s I was desperate to talk about it and almost nobody was interested in it at that time.

    Talk about being born at the wrong point in time.

    I did the causes of the First World War for History 'O' Level. My teacher's tutor had been AJP Taylor...
    "I've danced with a man, who's danced with a girl, who's danced with the Prince of Wales"
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest 2015 ARSE General Election & JackW Dozen Projections Countdown

    13 hours
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    TGOHF said:

    @TGOHF

    Mr. Ghost I know I have asked this before and if you replied then I apologise for missing it, but why the choice of Flashman at the Charge for your avatar and why that edition?

    I've had a selection over the years from Flash for Freedom to the Mountain of light - am just re-reading "at the charge" at the moment - no specific reason !
    Of them all, Flashman at the Charge is my favourite.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654
    isam said:


    How about someone who just bases their policies and decisions on what they believe to be the right thing?

    The voters would hate them.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    Peter Kellner writing in today's Daily Telegraph :

    " David Cameron's prospects for victory in 2015 can’t be guaranteed"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11010212/Poll-data-David-Camerons-prospects-for-victory-in-2015-cant-be-guaranteed.html

    That's a bit of an understatement. He has virtually no hope of winning a majority and an extremely slim chance of cobbling together another coalition with the LDs.
    Clearly another non-believer in Stephen Fisher, who currently gives the Tories a 52% chance of being the largest party and a 26% chance of achieving an overall majority at the next GE.
    And the bookies go EVENS and 3/1!
    You don't suppose Stephen's real name is Paddy do you?
    This Election should be great for betting.. as it stands, if UKIP don't win a seat, score less than 9% and less than the LDs I have done my brains!!
    Oopps

    Well not really as I can get out of all the positions for a profit ;)
    Not so Oopps

    But they will all lose! oopps!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited August 2014
    Re WWI - how long would the Ottoman Empire have lasted without being involved in a war. WWI led to a significant level of ethnic cleansing or population exchanges between Greece and Turkey after Greek expulsion from Symra 1922.

    WWI led to Attaturk remoulding the Turkish Republic, taking a different line to Enver Bay and the Committee of Union and Progress. Before that, the Ottomans wiped out a large number of Armenians, lost provinces in modern Syria, Iraq, Palestine, Jordan, Arabia, Lebanon. The war led to significant change in the Near East, not necessarily to its advantage.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:


    How about someone who just bases their policies and decisions on what they believe to be the right thing?

    The voters would hate them.
    Its crossed my mind that political opinion polls should be illegal
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.

    I don't know if it rises to the level of bullying, and politician's open themselves up to a great deal of ridicule of course, though I must say I found the Labour version of events on this one highly plausible for once.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @kle4
    And the LibDem version as well?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28646068
    (near the bottom of the page)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    kle4 said:

    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.

    I don't know if it rises to the level of bullying, and politician's open themselves up to a great deal of ridicule of course, though I must say I found the Labour version of events on this one highly plausible for once.

    Yeah right, and where were you and Volcanopete when the likes of tim and others were ridiculing Dave for his photo ops or mistakes, Where were you leaping to his defence....
    Labour version of events.. LOL. They screwed up.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    Peter Kellner writing in today's Daily Telegraph :

    " David Cameron's prospects for victory in 2015 can’t be guaranteed"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11010212/Poll-data-David-Camerons-prospects-for-victory-in-2015-cant-be-guaranteed.html

    That's a bit of an understatement. He has virtually no hope of winning a majority and an extremely slim chance of cobbling together another coalition with the LDs.
    Clearly another non-believer in Stephen Fisher, who currently gives the Tories a 52% chance of being the largest party and a 26% chance of achieving an overall majority at the next GE.
    And the bookies go EVENS and 3/1!
    You don't suppose Stephen's real name is Paddy do you?
    This Election should be great for betting.. as it stands, if UKIP don't win a seat, score less than 9% and less than the LDs I have done my brains!!
    Less than 10%, surely?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    edited August 2014

    Peter Kellner writing in today's Daily Telegraph :

    " David Cameron's prospects for victory in 2015 can’t be guaranteed"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11010212/Poll-data-David-Camerons-prospects-for-victory-in-2015-cant-be-guaranteed.html

    Quite why it has taken so long for some to recognise that an improving economy need not definitely lead to an improved Tory vote (even if it might be fair that it would, though that is a different argument), I do not know. They still have a chance though, things could pick up I guess, as he says we still cannot directly compare to previous elections very well.
  • Big move to YES at Betfair. At the end of last week the price was 6.8 now in to 4.8.

    I have made 100 quid in 3 days by laying NO at 1.17. Now 1.25.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    kle4 said:

    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.

    I don't know if it rises to the level of bullying, and politician's open themselves up to a great deal of ridicule of course, though I must say I found the Labour version of events on this one highly plausible for once.

    Yeah right, and where were you and Volcanopete when the likes of tim and others were ridiculing Dave for his photo ops or mistakes, Where were you leaping to his defence....
    Labour version of events.. LOL. They screwed up.

    I believe I ridiculed tim for each and every one of his Morrissons / Guinness / tears at Thatcher's funeral / Easyjet / sunbathing / coffeeshop manias.

    The wreath business is up there with the best of those.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Neil
    The slight difference here is in perception? And not by the likes of us geeks.
    poison gas can blow back on you, to use an apt metaphor.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Neil said:

    kle4 said:

    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.

    I don't know if it rises to the level of bullying, and politician's open themselves up to a great deal of ridicule of course, though I must say I found the Labour version of events on this one highly plausible for once.

    Yeah right, and where were you and Volcanopete when the likes of tim and others were ridiculing Dave for his photo ops or mistakes, Where were you leaping to his defence....
    Labour version of events.. LOL. They screwed up.

    I believe I ridiculed tim for each and every one of his Morrissons / Guinness / tears at Thatcher's funeral / Easyjet / sunbathing / coffeeshop manias.

    The wreath business is up there with the best of those.
    If you read what I wrote, I didn't ask about you ....
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    @TGOHF

    Mr. Ghost I know I have asked this before and if you replied then I apologise for missing it, but why the choice of Flashman at the Charge for your avatar and why that edition?

    I've had a selection over the years from Flash for Freedom to the Mountain of light - am just re-reading "at the charge" at the moment - no specific reason !
    Of them all, Flashman at the Charge is my favourite.

    Thanks Mr. Ghost. I re-read the series in chronological order a while back. I have to say that while Flashman at the Charge is at the top end I don't think its the best. That honour I think belongs to Flashman and the Mountain of Light - it has a spiffing opening (Queen Victoria pouring brandy into the tea), a less obvious story-line and a more Flashman style of writing. Flashman and the Dragon is worth an honourable mention.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    kle4 said:

    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.

    I don't know if it rises to the level of bullying, and politician's open themselves up to a great deal of ridicule of course, though I must say I found the Labour version of events on this one highly plausible for once.

    Yeah right, and where were you and Volcanopete when the likes of tim and others were ridiculing Dave for his photo ops or mistakes, Where were you leaping to his defence....
    Labour version of events.. LOL. They screwed up.

    I defend Cameron frequently, thank you very much, even if he has been a disappointing though not terrible PM, but I cannot be everywhere all the time. That whole pasty business and Cameron was bloody ridiculous for one.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm annoyed to death with the current obession with the First World War, not because I don't like discussing the First World War but because when I started at secondary school in the 1990s I was desperate to talk about it and almost nobody was interested in it at that time.

    Talk about being born at the wrong point in time.

    I did the causes of the First World War for History 'O' Level. My teacher's tutor had been AJP Taylor...
    "I've danced with a man, who's danced with a girl, who's danced with the Prince of Wales"

    My grandfather danced with a woman whom he married who danced with the Prince of Wales and so by tradition, I've danced with a woman whom I married who danced with the Prince of Wales.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    @TGOHF

    Mr. Ghost I know I have asked this before and if you replied then I apologise for missing it, but why the choice of Flashman at the Charge for your avatar and why that edition?

    I've had a selection over the years from Flash for Freedom to the Mountain of light - am just re-reading "at the charge" at the moment - no specific reason !
    Of them all, Flashman at the Charge is my favourite.

    Thanks Mr. Ghost. I re-read the series in chronological order a while back. I have to say that while Flashman at the Charge is at the top end I don't think its the best. That honour I think belongs to Flashman and the Mountain of Light - it has a spiffing opening (Queen Victoria pouring brandy into the tea), a less obvious story-line and a more Flashman style of writing. Flashman and the Dragon is worth an honourable mention.
    Any book with a title in which the first word could easily be replaced with "Harry Potter" sounds like a questionable read!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    kle4 said:

    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.

    I don't know if it rises to the level of bullying, and politician's open themselves up to a great deal of ridicule of course, though I must say I found the Labour version of events on this one highly plausible for once.

    Yeah right, and where were you and Volcanopete when the likes of tim and others were ridiculing Dave for his photo ops or mistakes, Where were you leaping to his defence....
    Labour version of events.. LOL. They screwed up.

    I believe I ridiculed tim for each and every one of his Morrissons / Guinness / tears at Thatcher's funeral / Easyjet / sunbathing / coffeeshop manias.

    The wreath business is up there with the best of those.
    If you read what I wrote, I didn't ask about you ....
    I can only really answer for me, I'm afraid.

    @Smarmy

    Yes, the Tories would be wise not to try to make something of it. Us PB Tories can obviously do what we like without affecting a single vote in a single constituency.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    @TGOHF

    Mr. Ghost I know I have asked this before and if you replied then I apologise for missing it, but why the choice of Flashman at the Charge for your avatar and why that edition?

    I've had a selection over the years from Flash for Freedom to the Mountain of light - am just re-reading "at the charge" at the moment - no specific reason !
    Of them all, Flashman at the Charge is my favourite.

    Thanks Mr. Ghost. I re-read the series in chronological order a while back. I have to say that while Flashman at the Charge is at the top end I don't think its the best. That honour I think belongs to Flashman and the Mountain of Light - it has a spiffing opening (Queen Victoria pouring brandy into the tea), a less obvious story-line and a more Flashman style of writing. Flashman and the Dragon is worth an honourable mention.
    Any book with a title in which the first word could easily be replaced with "Harry Potter" sounds like a questionable read!
    Each to their own, Mr. Rentool, have you tried the Flashman series? Maybe you would enjoy it.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.

    I don't know if it rises to the level of bullying, and politician's open themselves up to a great deal of ridicule of course, though I must say I found the Labour version of events on this one highly plausible for once.

    Yeah right, and where were you and Volcanopete when the likes of tim and others were ridiculing Dave for his photo ops or mistakes, Where were you leaping to his defence....
    Labour version of events.. LOL. They screwed up.

    I defend Cameron frequently, thank you very much, even if he has been a disappointing though not terrible PM, but I cannot be everywhere all the time. That whole pasty business and Cameron was bloody ridiculous for one.
    Neither can I, nor recall everyone, BUT but I can pretty much recall who were sticking the knife in and those who remained silent.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654

    Not posting anything partisan today just wanted to say a message of remembrance for those who fought and gave their lives for our freedom.

    Does WW1 have a freedom angle?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.

    I don't know if it rises to the level of bullying, and politician's open themselves up to a great deal of ridicule of course, though I must say I found the Labour version of events on this one highly plausible for once.

    Yeah right, and where were you and Volcanopete when the likes of tim and others were ridiculing Dave for his photo ops or mistakes, Where were you leaping to his defence....
    Labour version of events.. LOL. They screwed up.

    I defend Cameron frequently, thank you very much, even if he has been a disappointing though not terrible PM, but I cannot be everywhere all the time. That whole pasty business and Cameron was bloody ridiculous for one.
    Neither can I, nor recall everyone, BUT I can pretty much recall who were sticking the knife in and those who remained silent.
    PS I just loathe the hypocrisy of the left who like giving it out but whine like hell when they get a bit of their own medicine..... but I will say that if PB had been around at the time of the donkey jacket incident I would have been sticking it to Foot for all it was worth... and a bit more.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SquareRoot
    And can you remember those who defended him to the hilt "Sherlock"?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    @TGOHF

    Mr. Ghost I know I have asked this before and if you replied then I apologise for missing it, but why the choice of Flashman at the Charge for your avatar and why that edition?

    I've had a selection over the years from Flash for Freedom to the Mountain of light - am just re-reading "at the charge" at the moment - no specific reason !
    Of them all, Flashman at the Charge is my favourite.

    Thanks Mr. Ghost. I re-read the series in chronological order a while back. I have to say that while Flashman at the Charge is at the top end I don't think its the best. That honour I think belongs to Flashman and the Mountain of Light - it has a spiffing opening (Queen Victoria pouring brandy into the tea), a less obvious story-line and a more Flashman style of writing. Flashman and the Dragon is worth an honourable mention.
    Any book with a title in which the first word could easily be replaced with "Harry Potter" sounds like a questionable read!
    Each to their own, Mr. Rentool, have you tried the Flashman series? Maybe you would enjoy it.
    I have to confess that my cheap comment comes from a position of ignorance. Maybe I'll pick one up next time I see one in our local Oxfam.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.

    I don't know if it rises to the level of bullying, and politician's open themselves up to a great deal of ridicule of course, though I must say I found the Labour version of events on this one highly plausible for once.

    Yeah right, and where were you and Volcanopete when the likes of tim and others were ridiculing Dave for his photo ops or mistakes, Where were you leaping to his defence....
    Labour version of events.. LOL. They screwed up.

    I defend Cameron frequently, thank you very much, even if he has been a disappointing though not terrible PM, but I cannot be everywhere all the time. That whole pasty business and Cameron was bloody ridiculous for one.
    Neither can I, nor recall everyone, BUT but I can pretty much recall who were sticking the knife in and those who remained silent.
    Maybe I wasn't around? Give me a break. For what it's worth I believe my general approach to ridiculous partisanship on such PR stories is over the top agreement to demonstrate its ridiculousness, or, yes, to stay silent. These stories crop up so bloody often it's hard to work up interest in all of them; I believe I stayed silent when Miliband was going through the gut splitting hilarity that apparently arose from his unfortunate bacon photos as well.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Big move to YES at Betfair. At the end of last week the price was 6.8 now in to 4.8.

    I have made 100 quid in 3 days by laying NO at 1.17. Now 1.25.

    Where were you the last few weeks ?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939

    Not posting anything partisan today just wanted to say a message of remembrance for those who fought and gave their lives for our freedom.

    Does WW1 have a freedom angle?
    Yes, if we hadn't won the war, there would never have been Wham.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    Neil said:

    kle4 said:

    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.

    I don't know if it rises to the level of bullying, and politician's open themselves up to a great deal of ridicule of course, though I must say I found the Labour version of events on this one highly plausible for once.

    Yeah right, and where were you and Volcanopete when the likes of tim and others were ridiculing Dave for his photo ops or mistakes, Where were you leaping to his defence....
    Labour version of events.. LOL. They screwed up.

    I believe I ridiculed tim for each and every one of his Morrissons / Guinness / tears at Thatcher's funeral / Easyjet / sunbathing / coffeeshop manias.

    The wreath business is up there with the best of those.
    Sir, you forget daughterleftinpubgate - perhaps tim's greatest tour de force, brought out regularly without regard for relevance to the topic in hand.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited August 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    @SquareRoot
    And can you remember those who defended him to the hilt "Sherlock"?

    Listen Smarmy, The point is that the left whine like feck when they get grief , but are only too happy to stick it to their opponents. I just loathe the hypocrisy.

    I defended Dave, its all part of politics. Ed was a FOOL to go to America when he did, but he HAD to go to America and be seen with Obama.
    He was just a fool at the timing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.

    I don't know if it rises to the level of bullying, and politician's open themselves up to a great deal of ridicule of course, though I must say I found the Labour version of events on this one highly plausible for once.

    Yeah right, and where were you and Volcanopete when the likes of tim and others were ridiculing Dave for his photo ops or mistakes, Where were you leaping to his defence....
    Labour version of events.. LOL. They screwed up.

    I defend Cameron frequently, thank you very much, even if he has been a disappointing though not terrible PM, but I cannot be everywhere all the time. That whole pasty business and Cameron was bloody ridiculous for one.
    Neither can I, nor recall everyone, BUT I can pretty much recall who were sticking the knife in and those who remained silent.
    PS I just loathe the hypocrisy of the left who like giving it out but whine like hell when they get a bit of their own medicine.
    As someone who wanted Cameron to be PM, and would prefer him to Miliband (while not being terrified of a Miliband premiership), I'm not sure if I count as being on the left or not, but in my experience Labour seem more prone to self righteous positions than the Tories, which leaves them wider open to mockery and claims of hypocrisy when they are demonstrated to have the same faults as any political party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Neil said:

    kle4 said:

    It does no favours to the modern day,once-great,Tory party to so obviously bully Ed Miliband,as bullying Tories did today.Bullying will back-fire badly because people don't take kindly to bullies.It reveals what sort of people the Tories have allowed themselves to become,playground bullies.

    I don't know if it rises to the level of bullying, and politician's open themselves up to a great deal of ridicule of course, though I must say I found the Labour version of events on this one highly plausible for once.

    Yeah right, and where were you and Volcanopete when the likes of tim and others were ridiculing Dave for his photo ops or mistakes, Where were you leaping to his defence....
    Labour version of events.. LOL. They screwed up.

    I believe I ridiculed tim for each and every one of his Morrissons / Guinness / tears at Thatcher's funeral / Easyjet / sunbathing / coffeeshop manias.

    The wreath business is up there with the best of those.
    Hmm, I don't remember some of those. It's like I've always said (or as I am about to say I always said), people can try to run with these things for momentary advantage, but only the the best will truly stand the test of time.
  • New Thread
  • Shadsy - if you're there - it would be good if Ladbrokes were to offer Share of the UK Vote in 5% bands in much the same way as you do for UKIP.

    I should have added : for the LibDems.
  • I do feel sorry that a lot of Lib/Lab/Con MP's are going to lose there jobs come May 2015 its never nice , But if the Con's best defence is to tell everybody voting UKIP gets us a Labour government they are in deep trouble , very few have forgiven Blair and the others just dont like Milliband , all the rubbish spouted before the Euro landslide didnt have any effect and next year will change history in this country.
This discussion has been closed.