Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Labour has a much lower chance than 12% of winning a majority – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 14 in General
imageLabour has a much lower chance than 12% of winning a majority – politicalbetting.com

At the last election what was then Corbyn’s party came out with 203 MPs and since then Hartlepool has been lost. So to win on this bet what is now Starmer’s party has to gain 124 seats.

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,744
    First like England.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638
    I'm repeating this in despair FPT

    Anne Frank is trending under 'Sports' on Twitter because Everton thinks she was someone who died of Covid during the pandemic.

    What went wrong with the world?

    Civilization is over.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,856
    Next.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248
    I take it that the rules don’t take into account the Sinn Fein abstention policy?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,856
    edited August 14
    FPT:
    DougSeal said:

    Just got back from my CrossFit summer barbeque. Went prepared for rain. Came back sunburned. Am drunk.

    How well has your CrossFit gym got through the pandemic?

    We have now - after much work - become a venue for Crossfit Level 1 courses, and one of the people doing the Certificate on the last one moved gym because he liked the facilities. Which is great news.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,959
    edited August 14
    DougSeal said:

    I'm repeating this in despair FPT

    Anne Frank is trending under 'Sports' on Twitter because Everton thinks she was someone who died of Covid during the pandemic.

    What went wrong with the world?

    Civilization is over.

    That's nothing.

    Leeds have removed an image of former al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden from their cardboard cut-out crowd ahead of football’s return to Elland Road.

    Clubs up and down the country are encouraging fans to pay to have their picture in the crowds at their home stadiums while games are played behind closed doors.


    https://talksport.com/football/efl/721994/osama-bin-laden-cardboard-cut-out-leeds-crowd/

    So Osama Bin Laden supported Dirty Leeds and Arsenal, always knew he was a wrong'un.

    Edit - The civilised world spells it civilisation. No z.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 735
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    DougSeal said:

    Just got back from my CrossFit summer barbeque. Went prepared for rain. Came back sunburned. Am drunk.

    How well has your CrossFit gym got through the pandemic?

    We have now - after much work - become a venue for Crossfit Level 1 courses, and one of the people doing the Certificate on the last one moved gym because he liked the facilities. Which is great news.

    I never understood why Crossfire is so big when its founder is not in particularly great shape. Everything I have seen about it suggests it encourages terrible form and increases injury risk.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,744
    Bugger. The Indian openers get to go to bed knowing when they'll be batting (weather permitting).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,878
    Anderson out on the last ball of the day.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 737
    Anderson will be hoping he gets a chance to bowl at Bumrah sometime tomorrow.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    DougSeal said:

    Just got back from my CrossFit summer barbeque. Went prepared for rain. Came back sunburned. Am drunk.

    How well has your CrossFit gym got through the pandemic?

    We have now - after much work - become a venue for Crossfit Level 1 courses, and one of the people doing the Certificate on the last one moved gym because he liked the facilities. Which is great news.

    It made it - just about. Most people kept their subs going through lockdown which helped. Talking to the coaches it looked dicey for a while but it's a box with a great community and it's made it to the other side, fingers crossed. Helps too that a lot of people are now working from home and transferring memberships down from London.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 735
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    But Lisa Doyle, director of advocacy and engagement at the Refugee Council, said: "The government must change its approach. Instead of seeking to punish or push away people seeking safety because of the type of journey they have made to the UK, they must create and commit to safe routes."

    She said: "While there is war, persecution and violence, people will be forced to take dangerous journeys to seek safety.

    "We are talking about ordinary men, women and children who are forced to flee their home through no fault of their own."


    They are taking the piss. No one in the English Channel was facing war, persecution or violence when they left shore. They are taking the British public for mugs.

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638

    DougSeal said:

    I'm repeating this in despair FPT

    Anne Frank is trending under 'Sports' on Twitter because Everton thinks she was someone who died of Covid during the pandemic.

    What went wrong with the world?

    Civilization is over.

    That's nothing.

    Leeds have removed an image of former al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden from their cardboard cut-out crowd ahead of football’s return to Elland Road.

    Clubs up and down the country are encouraging fans to pay to have their picture in the crowds at their home stadiums while games are played behind closed doors.


    https://talksport.com/football/efl/721994/osama-bin-laden-cardboard-cut-out-leeds-crowd/

    So Osama Bin Laden supported Dirty Leeds and Arsenal, always knew he was a wrong'un.

    Edit - The civilised world spells it civilisation. No z.

    “Not to be constantly correcting people, and in particular not to jump on them whenever they make an error of usage or a grammatical mistake or mispronounce something, but just answer their question or add another example, or debate the issue itself (not their phrasing), or make some other contribution to the discussion—and insert the right expression, unobtrusively.” Marcus Aurelius Antoninus 121 – 180
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,856
    edited August 14
    Aslan said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    DougSeal said:

    Just got back from my CrossFit summer barbeque. Went prepared for rain. Came back sunburned. Am drunk.

    How well has your CrossFit gym got through the pandemic?

    We have now - after much work - become a venue for Crossfit Level 1 courses, and one of the people doing the Certificate on the last one moved gym because he liked the facilities. Which is great news.

    I never understood why Crossfire is so big when its founder is not in particularly great shape. Everything I have seen about it suggests it encourages terrible form and increases injury risk.
    Fit not Fire btw.

    The 'franchise' is no longer owned by the founder.

    If you don't have decent coaches and learn the ropes, then injury is easy to do in any sport.

    I think the key attractions are that:

    1 - There is a community working together, as opposed to rows of head down lonely drones gubbing away on horribly expensive torture machines. I know a large % of people in our gym.
    2 - There is a strong aspect of small-group nearly personal training in every class.
    3 - And that everything is scalable to any ability or fitness level.

    And it is usually the case that membership is monthly and the business is built on people who want to come, rather than a lot of people who set up their monthly bank payments and never turn up. To me that seems healthier.

    At ours we get something like 30% of the membership through the door every day.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,405
    I agree. Also, the odds are right in that there is no rational way of deciding between a Tory majority and NOM at the moment. There isn't enough data. They should be dead level, as they more or less are.

    I should think the real chance of a Labour majority (326 seats+) is somewhere between 2% and 4% and relies wholly upon a black swan. No foreseeable scenario gets them home. But of course 25/1 horses win most days.

    49/49/2 would be nor far out IMHO.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,641
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    I'm repeating this in despair FPT

    Anne Frank is trending under 'Sports' on Twitter because Everton thinks she was someone who died of Covid during the pandemic.

    What went wrong with the world?

    Civilization is over.

    That's nothing.

    Leeds have removed an image of former al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden from their cardboard cut-out crowd ahead of football’s return to Elland Road.

    Clubs up and down the country are encouraging fans to pay to have their picture in the crowds at their home stadiums while games are played behind closed doors.


    https://talksport.com/football/efl/721994/osama-bin-laden-cardboard-cut-out-leeds-crowd/

    So Osama Bin Laden supported Dirty Leeds and Arsenal, always knew he was a wrong'un.

    Edit - The civilised world spells it civilisation. No z.

    “Not to be constantly correcting people, and in particular not to jump on them whenever they make an error of usage or a grammatical mistake or mispronounce something, but just answer their question or add another example, or debate the issue itself (not their phrasing), or make some other contribution to the discussion—and insert the right expression, unobtrusively.” Marcus Aurelius Antoninus 121 – 180
    Yes, but look who he picked for his heir. Doesn't say much for the Deified Caesar's judgement.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638
    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    I'm repeating this in despair FPT

    Anne Frank is trending under 'Sports' on Twitter because Everton thinks she was someone who died of Covid during the pandemic.

    What went wrong with the world?

    Civilization is over.

    That's nothing.

    Leeds have removed an image of former al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden from their cardboard cut-out crowd ahead of football’s return to Elland Road.

    Clubs up and down the country are encouraging fans to pay to have their picture in the crowds at their home stadiums while games are played behind closed doors.


    https://talksport.com/football/efl/721994/osama-bin-laden-cardboard-cut-out-leeds-crowd/

    So Osama Bin Laden supported Dirty Leeds and Arsenal, always knew he was a wrong'un.

    Edit - The civilised world spells it civilisation. No z.

    “Not to be constantly correcting people, and in particular not to jump on them whenever they make an error of usage or a grammatical mistake or mispronounce something, but just answer their question or add another example, or debate the issue itself (not their phrasing), or make some other contribution to the discussion—and insert the right expression, unobtrusively.” Marcus Aurelius Antoninus 121 – 180
    Yes, but look who he picked for his heir. Doesn't say much for the Deified Caesar's judgement.
    You win some, you lose some.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638
    MattW said:

    Aslan said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    DougSeal said:

    Just got back from my CrossFit summer barbeque. Went prepared for rain. Came back sunburned. Am drunk.

    How well has your CrossFit gym got through the pandemic?

    We have now - after much work - become a venue for Crossfit Level 1 courses, and one of the people doing the Certificate on the last one moved gym because he liked the facilities. Which is great news.

    I never understood why Crossfire is so big when its founder is not in particularly great shape. Everything I have seen about it suggests it encourages terrible form and increases injury risk.
    Fit not Fire btw.

    The 'franchise' is no longer owned by the founder.

    If you don't have decent coaches and learn the ropes, then injury is easy to do in any sport.

    I think the key attractions are that:

    1 - There is a community working together, as opposed to rows of head down lonely drones gubbing away on horribly expensive torture machines. I know a large % of people in our gym.
    2 - There is a strong aspect of small-group nearly personal training in every class.
    3 - And that everything is scalable to any ability or fitness level.

    And it is usually the case that membership is monthly and the business is built on people who want to come, rather than a lot of people who set up their monthly bank payments and never turn up.

    At ours we get something like 30% of the membership through the door every day.
    I certainly need to up my attendance game.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,490
    Aslan said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    But Lisa Doyle, director of advocacy and engagement at the Refugee Council, said: "The government must change its approach. Instead of seeking to punish or push away people seeking safety because of the type of journey they have made to the UK, they must create and commit to safe routes."

    She said: "While there is war, persecution and violence, people will be forced to take dangerous journeys to seek safety.

    "We are talking about ordinary men, women and children who are forced to flee their home through no fault of their own."


    They are taking the piss. No one in the English Channel was facing war, persecution or violence when they left shore. They are taking the British public for mugs.

    If there were no refugees the refugee council and it’s well paid staff wouldn’t exist.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,121
    "another Bash Boris thread"
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,856
    DougSeal said:


    MattW said:

    FPT:

    DougSeal said:

    Just got back from my CrossFit summer barbeque. Went prepared for rain. Came back sunburned. Am drunk.

    How well has your CrossFit gym got through the pandemic?

    We have now - after much work - become a venue for Crossfit Level 1 courses, and one of the people doing the Certificate on the last one moved gym because he liked the facilities. Which is great news.

    It made it - just about. Most people kept their subs going through lockdown which helped. Talking to the coaches it looked dicey for a while but it's a box with a great community and it's made it to the other side, fingers crossed. Helps too that a lot of people are now working from home and transferring memberships down from London.
    More or less our experience, For us the only people who reduced their membership fee, or stopped, were mainly those who were under real pressure, or had to move away.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 737
    I have some bad news and some good news for you. The bad news is that Arsenal are no longer bottom of the Premier League. The good news is that Dirty Leeds are bottom of the Premier League.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,557
    edited August 14
    Seems too short for Labour majority, 7/1. I wouldn’t know how to work it out. With an 80 seat majority, the more charismatic leader and ahead by around 7 points in the polls, I think the Con Maj price should be odds on.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,476
    I'm not optimistic about an overall majority either. But it may be a decent trading bet. Starmer will no doubt give a decent speech at the party conference in a month and there will be a moderate Labour bounce, as there almost is after a conference. Quite possibly that will produce a small polling lead. Then cash out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,587
    edited August 14
    I agree, Labour has near zero chance of a majority. The next general election will likely be in 2023 ie after 13 years of the Tories in power.

    The comparable postwar general elections therefore are 1964, 1992 and 2010.

    In 1964 Wilson's Labour won with a majority of just 4 seats after 13 years in opposition over Home's Tories (and that was with Labour winning most Scottish seats, so Starmer would have to regain most Labour seats from the SNP to have even a chance of a majority).

    In 1992 Kinnock's Labour made gains, again after 13 years of the Tories in power but Major's Tories were narrowly re elected with a majority of 21 (this election is what current polls suggest the next election will most resemble).

    Finally in 2010 after 13 years of Labour in power Cameron's Tories failed to win a majority but did get enough seats to be able to form a government with the LDs. Even if Starmer did match the 96 seats Cameron gained in 2010, Labour would still only be on 298 seats and still well short of the 326 needed for an overall majority. They would need the LDs and most likely the SNP too to support them for Starmer to enter No 10.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,668
    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart
  • I think the Tories will probably win the next election, but I can also imagine Boris being revealed during an election campaign to have done something awful enough to lose it badly. So I don't think I'd want to lay the 8ish to 1
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,864
    HYUFD said:

    I agree, Labour has near zero chance of a majority. The next general election will be in 2023 ie after 13 years of the Tories in power.

    The comparable postwar general elections therefore are 1964, 1992 and 2010.

    In 1964 Wilson's Labour won with a majority of just 4 seats after 13 years in opposition over Home's Tories (and that was with Labour winning most Scottish seats, so Starmer would have to regain most Labour seats from the SNP to have even a chance of a majority).

    In 1992 Kinnock's Labour made gains, again after 13 years of the Tories in power but Major's Tories were narrowly re elected with a majority of 21 (this election is what polls suggest the next election will most resemble).

    Finally in 2010 after 13 years of Labour in power Cameron's Tories failed to win a majority but did get enough seats to be able to form a government with the LDs. Even if Starmer did match the 96 seats Cameron gained in 2010, Labour would still only be on 298 seats and still well short of the 326 needed for an overall majority. They would need the LDs and most likely the SNP too to support them for Starmer to enter No 10.

    Isn't it a bit over-chartist, doing it purely in terms of years in office and seat numbers? I think you lot are in for a very nasty Chesham & Amersham type shock. You just have no idea how much you have lost the trust and respect of a great deal of your former core vote.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,521

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248
    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    I'm repeating this in despair FPT

    Anne Frank is trending under 'Sports' on Twitter because Everton thinks she was someone who died of Covid during the pandemic.

    What went wrong with the world?

    Civilization is over.

    That's nothing.

    Leeds have removed an image of former al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden from their cardboard cut-out crowd ahead of football’s return to Elland Road.

    Clubs up and down the country are encouraging fans to pay to have their picture in the crowds at their home stadiums while games are played behind closed doors.


    https://talksport.com/football/efl/721994/osama-bin-laden-cardboard-cut-out-leeds-crowd/

    So Osama Bin Laden supported Dirty Leeds and Arsenal, always knew he was a wrong'un.

    Edit - The civilised world spells it civilisation. No z.

    “Not to be constantly correcting people, and in particular not to jump on them whenever they make an error of usage or a grammatical mistake or mispronounce something, but just answer their question or add another example, or debate the issue itself (not their phrasing), or make some other contribution to the discussion—and insert the right expression, unobtrusively.” Marcus Aurelius Antoninus 121 – 180
    Yes, but look who he picked for his heir. Doesn't say much for the Deified Caesar's judgement.
    Name was a bit of a giveaway really. Commodus. I mean, surely you expect somebody with ‘commode’ in their name to be totally potty and full of shit?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,100
    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix
  • isamisam Posts: 38,557

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    Michael Corleone:
    I saw a strange thing today. Some rebels were being arrested. One of them pulled the pin on a grenade. He took himself and the captain of the command with him. Now, soldiers are paid to fight; the rebels aren't.

    Hyman Roth:
    What does that tell you?

    Michael Corleone:
    It means they could win.
  • Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,587
    edited August 14
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, Labour has near zero chance of a majority. The next general election will be in 2023 ie after 13 years of the Tories in power.

    The comparable postwar general elections therefore are 1964, 1992 and 2010.

    In 1964 Wilson's Labour won with a majority of just 4 seats after 13 years in opposition over Home's Tories (and that was with Labour winning most Scottish seats, so Starmer would have to regain most Labour seats from the SNP to have even a chance of a majority).

    In 1992 Kinnock's Labour made gains, again after 13 years of the Tories in power but Major's Tories were narrowly re elected with a majority of 21 (this election is what polls suggest the next election will most resemble).

    Finally in 2010 after 13 years of Labour in power Cameron's Tories failed to win a majority but did get enough seats to be able to form a government with the LDs. Even if Starmer did match the 96 seats Cameron gained in 2010, Labour would still only be on 298 seats and still well short of the 326 needed for an overall majority. They would need the LDs and most likely the SNP too to support them for Starmer to enter No 10.

    Isn't it a bit over-chartist, doing it purely in terms of years in office and seat numbers? I think you lot are in for a very nasty Chesham & Amersham type shock. You just have no idea how much you have lost the trust and respect of a great deal of your former core vote.
    Even if the Tories suffered a 10% swing to the LDs at the next general election in southern Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham (which current polls are not suggesting) that would still see only 30 Tory seats lost to the LDs and the Tories would still have a comfortable majority of 20.
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    So Labour still needs to gain Tory seats too for Starmer to become PM and there is little evidence in most current polls there has been any real swing from Tory to Labour since 2019. Indeed in a few strong Leave seats like Hartlepool the reverse as the by election there showed
  • isamisam Posts: 38,557
    Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    They only have to be to the right of Labour on it though. Who else are people going to vote for?

    And Labour wet their pants w faux outrage when the big bad wolf Nigel Farage points out the problem, so I can’t imagine they’re going to start acting tough
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,521

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    592 made it over on Thursday:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    If it becomes utterly politically intolerable and the Tories don't sort it out, then a new party will come on the scene that will say it will do whatever it takes and then the law will be what bends.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,100
    isam said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    Michael Corleone:
    I saw a strange thing today. Some rebels were being arrested. One of them pulled the pin on a grenade. He took himself and the captain of the command with him. Now, soldiers are paid to fight; the rebels aren't.

    Hyman Roth:
    What does that tell you?

    Michael Corleone:
    It means they could win.
    Brilliant quote. Which Godfather movie? Or the book?

    I never knew “revenge is a dish that tastes best when served cold” is also from The Godfather. Or so google has just told me, as I drink absurdly strong G&T in the quiet backstreets of Kolonaki
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,630
    algarkirk said:

    I agree. Also, the odds are right in that there is no rational way of deciding between a Tory majority and NOM at the moment. There isn't enough data. They should be dead level, as they more or less are.

    I should think the real chance of a Labour majority (326 seats+) is somewhere between 2% and 4% and relies wholly upon a black swan. No foreseeable scenario gets them home. But of course 25/1 horses win most days.

    49/49/2 would be nor far out IMHO.

    70/25/5 would be my rough guess.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,100

    Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    592 made it over on Thursday:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    If it becomes utterly politically intolerable and the Tories don't sort it out, then a new party will come on the scene that will say it will do whatever it takes and then the law will be what bends.
    Yes. And I don’t think well-meaning lefties understand how quickly this would get extremely visceral, and quasi Fascist. They just bleat and virtue-signal

    We Brexited, and menaced our entire economy, partly because of uncontrolled immigration. An actual sea-borne invasion?? Violence will follow

    The only solution I can see is the Australian tow-them-away-somewhere-safe-but-unpleasant
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,100
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    They only have to be to the right of Labour on it though. Who else are people going to vote for?

    And Labour wet their pants w faux outrage when the big bad wolf Nigel Farage points out the problem, so I can’t imagine they’re going to start acting tough

    Yes, but Nigel - or someone much nastier than him - will stand and win multiple Tory seats, on the promise of Stopping the Invasion. So the Tories will have to get tough, or lose the election
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760

    DougSeal said:

    I'm repeating this in despair FPT

    Anne Frank is trending under 'Sports' on Twitter because Everton thinks she was someone who died of Covid during the pandemic.

    What went wrong with the world?

    Civilization is over.

    That's nothing.

    Leeds have removed an image of former al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden from their cardboard cut-out crowd ahead of football’s return to Elland Road.

    Clubs up and down the country are encouraging fans to pay to have their picture in the crowds at their home stadiums while games are played behind closed doors.


    https://talksport.com/football/efl/721994/osama-bin-laden-cardboard-cut-out-leeds-crowd/

    So Osama Bin Laden supported Dirty Leeds and Arsenal, always knew he was a wrong'un.

    Edit - The civilised world spells it civilisation. No z.
    Top tip: always check the Mikes in case someone has tried to sneak Mike Oxsmall in while everyone is checking Anne Frank.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,519
    I agree 12% overstates the chances of a Labour outright majority. I make it about half that. Not lower, though, because of the time element. Much can happen in 2 to 3 years. It's quite a long time.
  • FossFoss Posts: 437
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    592 made it over on Thursday:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    If it becomes utterly politically intolerable and the Tories don't sort it out, then a new party will come on the scene that will say it will do whatever it takes and then the law will be what bends.
    Yes. And I don’t think well-meaning lefties understand how quickly this would get extremely visceral, and quasi Fascist. They just bleat and virtue-signal

    We Brexited, and menaced our entire economy, partly because of uncontrolled immigration. An actual sea-borne invasion?? Violence will follow

    The only solution I can see is the Australian tow-them-away-somewhere-safe-but-unpleasant
    I expect we'll be saved from your quasi fascist government by the Mediterranean nations getting there first. Greece already seems to be engaged in mass pushback.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,630
    isam said:

    Seems too short for Labour majority, 7/1. I wouldn’t know how to work it out. With an 80 seat majority, the more charismatic leader and ahead by around 7 points in the polls, I think the Con Maj price should be odds on.

    Yes, it should be clearly odds on: the conservatives get to choose when the next election is, there are boundary reforms, and labour seems unlikely to make much progress in the old “red wall”.

    The danger to the conservatives are two fold: firstly, an economic downturn is always a risk, secondly, the focus on the red wall seats opens up a flank in the south for the libdems to take seats - albeit unless the libdems start polling in the high teens or better, they won’t take many conservative seats.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    My guess is Rory would not start from here. Drifting off-topic, it is a shame no-one clipped his HIGNFY appearance onto Youtube.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    592 made it over on Thursday:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    If it becomes utterly politically intolerable and the Tories don't sort it out, then a new party will come on the scene that will say it will do whatever it takes and then the law will be what bends.
    Yes. And I don’t think well-meaning lefties understand how quickly this would get extremely visceral, and quasi Fascist. They just bleat and virtue-signal

    We Brexited, and menaced our entire economy, partly because of uncontrolled immigration. An actual sea-borne invasion?? Violence will follow

    The only solution I can see is the Australian tow-them-away-somewhere-safe-but-unpleasant
    I don't want us to be too harsh on immigration, but we really couldn't be much softer in the implementation of our immigration laws without just opening the borders, even with the much maligned Patel as home secretary.

    Obviously fewer people would die in the channel if we just had open borders. Who wants to argue for that?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,521
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    592 made it over on Thursday:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    If it becomes utterly politically intolerable and the Tories don't sort it out, then a new party will come on the scene that will say it will do whatever it takes and then the law will be what bends.
    Yes. And I don’t think well-meaning lefties understand how quickly this would get extremely visceral, and quasi Fascist. They just bleat and virtue-signal

    We Brexited, and menaced our entire economy, partly because of uncontrolled immigration. An actual sea-borne invasion?? Violence will follow

    The only solution I can see is the Australian tow-them-away-somewhere-safe-but-unpleasant
    You need to take migrants to a place that they can simply knock on the door. So somewhere in France.

    If we're abandoning Afghanistan in the way we are then surely we're going to have to close our borders more in the future.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 613
    Sorry for being off topic but why does a city/town dweller need a shotgun licence.
    For a variety of reasons I have been asked to endorse several applications, I also get asked for passport pics etc, however, I have refused on some occasions, because there is no sensible reason to own one.
    Who endorsed this guy to own one.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,100
    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    592 made it over on Thursday:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    If it becomes utterly politically intolerable and the Tories don't sort it out, then a new party will come on the scene that will say it will do whatever it takes and then the law will be what bends.
    Yes. And I don’t think well-meaning lefties understand how quickly this would get extremely visceral, and quasi Fascist. They just bleat and virtue-signal

    We Brexited, and menaced our entire economy, partly because of uncontrolled immigration. An actual sea-borne invasion?? Violence will follow

    The only solution I can see is the Australian tow-them-away-somewhere-safe-but-unpleasant
    I expect we'll be saved from your quasi fascist government by the Mediterranean nations getting there first. Greece already seems to be engaged in mass pushback.
    Perhaps. But the migration pressures are only going to grow, and an awful lot of these migrants want to come to the UK, because of migrants already here, and the English language, and the perception that we are a bit soft (and we are, eg no ID cards, free health care at point of need, etc)

    So there is an incentive for every EU country to just let them in, wave them through, let them go to northern France and Belgium, then make for the UK. Problem sorted - for the EU

    Big big problem for the UK
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760
    jayfdee said:

    Sorry for being off topic but why does a city/town dweller need a shotgun licence.
    For a variety of reasons I have been asked to endorse several applications, I also get asked for passport pics etc, however, I have refused on some occasions, because there is no sensible reason to own one.
    Who endorsed this guy to own one.

    Dunno. But let me note there is now a roid rage theory to rival the incel hypothesis.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,668
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    It should be noted that in Vietnam the US military machine was beaten effectively by a load of peasants on 1/2 bowl of rice a day and cheap rifles.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    We really do lack for colourful politicians in this country

    Brazil's lower house of Congress has voted in favour of expelling a lawmaker who has been accused of ordering the murder of her husband.

    Evangelical gospel singer and pastor turned politician Flordelis de Souza has always maintained she is innocent.

    The 60-year-old's husband, Anderson do Carmo, was shot 30 times at their home in Rio de Janeiro in June 2019.

    Prosecutors allege he was killed by Ms Souza's son on her orders with a gun purchased by one of her adopted sons.

    The couple were famous for raising 55 children, most of whom they had adopted...

    under Brazil's constitution, members of Congress enjoy parliamentary immunity which also extends to alleged crimes committed outside of their official duties


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-58171370
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,744

    jayfdee said:

    Sorry for being off topic but why does a city/town dweller need a shotgun licence.
    For a variety of reasons I have been asked to endorse several applications, I also get asked for passport pics etc, however, I have refused on some occasions, because there is no sensible reason to own one.
    Who endorsed this guy to own one.

    Dunno. But let me note there is now a roid rage theory to rival the incel hypothesis.
    I'd have thought there's a number of contributory factors. And I think it's quite common for jihadis to be drug users (and incels, for that matter).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,668
    Aslan said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    But Lisa Doyle, director of advocacy and engagement at the Refugee Council, said: "The government must change its approach. Instead of seeking to punish or push away people seeking safety because of the type of journey they have made to the UK, they must create and commit to safe routes."

    She said: "While there is war, persecution and violence, people will be forced to take dangerous journeys to seek safety.

    "We are talking about ordinary men, women and children who are forced to flee their home through no fault of their own."


    They are taking the piss. No one in the English Channel was facing war, persecution or violence when they left shore. They are taking the British public for mugs.

    Don't we already commit to proper "safe routes"? From refugee camps on the edge of wars like Syria?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    I'm not analytical, and I can understand people in general thinking that surely, surely, Lab have a good chance next time, without considering just how far behind they are starting out from, and the implications of that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,100

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    It should be noted that in Vietnam the US military machine was beaten effectively by a load of peasants on 1/2 bowl of rice a day and cheap rifles.
    There are uncanny echoes with Vietnam, but also major disparities. The North Vietnamese were funded and aided by the USSR and China, big time. They had enormously powerful allies.

    The Taliban have no allies, except a few mad rich saudis maybe. Yet they have defeated America

    The loss of Afghanistan after a pointless 20 year war is not only costlier and sadder than the loss of Vietnam, it is more telling historically. It is the very end of the American century -1921-2021
  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    Oh yes, so I'm now reminded by you and a quick look at his history.. I think it's most unfortunate that Boris hasn't managed to entice him back to the party, or even into that kind of job.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,521

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    It should be noted that in Vietnam the US military machine was beaten effectively by a load of peasants on 1/2 bowl of rice a day and cheap rifles.
    Indeed. However he's not a general - he's a diplomat.

    The generals should, in my view, be attacking rather than defending. Attack 24x7.

    I know little of these things though and I'm sure that Rory Stewart is roughly as good as it gets in terms of saving Afghanistan.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,573
    What a shame we didn't bat deep enough for Root to get his double century.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,035
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    592 made it over on Thursday:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    If it becomes utterly politically intolerable and the Tories don't sort it out, then a new party will come on the scene that will say it will do whatever it takes and then the law will be what bends.
    Yes. And I don’t think well-meaning lefties understand how quickly this would get extremely visceral, and quasi Fascist. They just bleat and virtue-signal

    We Brexited, and menaced our entire economy, partly because of uncontrolled immigration. An actual sea-borne invasion?? Violence will follow

    The only solution I can see is the Australian tow-them-away-somewhere-safe-but-unpleasant
    "Violence will follow."

    From you?
  • Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    Oh yes, so I'm now reminded by you and a quick look at his history.. I think it's most unfortunate that Boris hasn't managed to entice him back to the party, or even into that kind of job.
    That Gavin Williamson has a cabinet position, and Rory Stewart doesn’t, is indeed a source of quiet despair
    How many people would care (or pretend they do) that there was another Etonian at the top?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,864
    jayfdee said:

    Sorry for being off topic but why does a city/town dweller need a shotgun licence.
    For a variety of reasons I have been asked to endorse several applications, I also get asked for passport pics etc, however, I have refused on some occasions, because there is no sensible reason to own one.
    Who endorsed this guy to own one.

    The countryside is accessible from the city, what with cars and stuff. Just about the one good thing about Plymouth is, there isn't that much of it. There's lots of reasons to ask why this guy had a licence, but his address isn't one of them.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,573
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    Oh yes, so I'm now reminded by you and a quick look at his history.. I think it's most unfortunate that Boris hasn't managed to entice him back to the party, or even into that kind of job.
    That Gavin Williamson has a cabinet position, and Rory Stewart doesn’t, is indeed a source of quiet despair
    Stewart is very like certain members [and former members] of this site. Absolutely excellent in his own right, but was driven mad by anti Brexit dogma.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Aslan said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    But Lisa Doyle, director of advocacy and engagement at the Refugee Council, said: "The government must change its approach. Instead of seeking to punish or push away people seeking safety because of the type of journey they have made to the UK, they must create and commit to safe routes."

    She said: "While there is war, persecution and violence, people will be forced to take dangerous journeys to seek safety.

    "We are talking about ordinary men, women and children who are forced to flee their home through no fault of their own."


    They are taking the piss. No one in the English Channel was facing war, persecution or violence when they left shore. They are taking the British public for mugs.

    I find this area difficult, as I don't particularly care about the overall numbers arriving in this country (which I know is not typical of the average voter) and given dangers to the genuine seekers I'm personally inclined to be generous, as well as focusing on humane reaction above deterrence.

    All that being said, however, it's clearly nonsense to state or imply that everyone making those particular journeys are asylum seekers, or escaping persecution and violence (though how many are, I could not say, but it cannot be all). Too often that is the implication, or people add in 'escaping poverty' and make emotional pleas about what we would do if we lived where they came from and wouldn't we want to seek to come here, which changes the subject to one of, in effect, being against any immigration policy at all, being against any restrictions whatsoever - some do hold that view, but not as many who imply it. And fundamentally I don't think it is wrong for any country to say no, even pretty harshly, to people who are coming out of desire. And that those people get mixed up with those who are fleeing violence (even though such has ended by the time they get to France), I find problematic.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,856
    edited August 14
    jayfdee said:

    Sorry for being off topic but why does a city/town dweller need a shotgun licence.
    For a variety of reasons I have been asked to endorse several applications, I also get asked for passport pics etc, however, I have refused on some occasions, because there is no sensible reason to own one.
    Who endorsed this guy to own one.

    Several valid reasons - anything like doing vermin control for family or friends, or having a bit of land, or even shooting clays as a hobby. Required secure storage would be at home or a gun club. Presumably we will hear in due course what was the reason given.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 961
    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    They only have to be to the right of Labour on it though. Who else are people going to vote for?

    And Labour wet their pants w faux outrage when the big bad wolf Nigel Farage points out the problem, so I can’t imagine they’re going to start acting tough

    Yes, but Nigel - or someone much nastier than him - will stand and win multiple Tory seats, on the promise of Stopping the Invasion. So the Tories will have to get tough, or lose the election
    Criticism of refugees will in the future be regarded as illegal hate speech. It will be censored by google and facebook. Such a party simply won't be allowed to exist, in the very near future. Brexit was Farage's high water mark, he's now well past it.
  • TresTres Posts: 596

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    Oh yes, so I'm now reminded by you and a quick look at his history.. I think it's most unfortunate that Boris hasn't managed to entice him back to the party, or even into that kind of job.
    That Gavin Williamson has a cabinet position, and Rory Stewart doesn’t, is indeed a source of quiet despair
    Stewart is very like certain members [and former members] of this site. Absolutely excellent in his own right, but was driven mad by anti Brexit dogma.
    Brexit has made the country shite-er. Cabinet included.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    Oh yes, so I'm now reminded by you and a quick look at his history.. I think it's most unfortunate that Boris hasn't managed to entice him back to the party, or even into that kind of job.
    That Gavin Williamson has a cabinet position, and Rory Stewart doesn’t, is indeed a source of quiet despair
    Stewart is very like certain members [and former members] of this site. Absolutely excellent in his own right, but was driven mad by anti Brexit dogma.
    "Mad"
  • Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    592 made it over on Thursday:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    If it becomes utterly politically intolerable and the Tories don't sort it out, then a new party will come on the scene that will say it will do whatever it takes and then the law will be what bends.
    I suspect the same thing that happens in America will happen here. Politicians will scream and shout about it, while not doing really much about the cheap workers filtering off into the black economy.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 535
    edited August 14
    IshmaelZ said:

    jayfdee said:

    Sorry for being off topic but why does a city/town dweller need a shotgun licence.
    For a variety of reasons I have been asked to endorse several applications, I also get asked for passport pics etc, however, I have refused on some occasions, because there is no sensible reason to own one.
    Who endorsed this guy to own one.

    The countryside is accessible from the city, what with cars and stuff. Just about the one good thing about Plymouth is, there isn't that much of it. There's lots of reasons to ask why this guy had a licence, but his address isn't one of them.
    Yes I was about to make this point. I have an uncle who owns several licensed shotguns, and he lives in a medium sized town but regularly does pest control in the surrounding countryside with landowners' permission. I'm all for checks being made more stringent, but geographic location should not be part of the criteria.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,668
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    It should be noted that in Vietnam the US military machine was beaten effectively by a load of peasants on 1/2 bowl of rice a day and cheap rifles.
    There are uncanny echoes with Vietnam, but also major disparities. The North Vietnamese were funded and aided by the USSR and China, big time. They had enormously powerful allies.

    The Taliban have no allies, except a few mad rich saudis maybe. Yet they have defeated America

    The loss of Afghanistan after a pointless 20 year war is not only costlier and sadder than the loss of Vietnam, it is more telling historically. It is the very end of the American century -1921-2021
    Hmm. Maybe. But I seem to recall the same signs of doom were talked about as Saigon fell and the helicopters lifted off with people hanging off the undersides.



    A few years later the cold war was won.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    592 made it over on Thursday:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    If it becomes utterly politically intolerable and the Tories don't sort it out, then a new party will come on the scene that will say it will do whatever it takes and then the law will be what bends.
    Yes. And I don’t think well-meaning lefties understand how quickly this would get extremely visceral, and quasi Fascist. They just bleat and virtue-signal

    We Brexited, and menaced our entire economy, partly because of uncontrolled immigration. An actual sea-borne invasion?? Violence will follow

    The only solution I can see is the Australian tow-them-away-somewhere-safe-but-unpleasant
    Whoever flagged that is an idiot.

    @Leon is making a perfectly legitimate point, and a valid one.

    There's no alternative, even for Lefties, but to engage with this. Argue for high immigration if you like, fine, but it must be controlled.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 15,253
    edited August 14
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    Oh yes, so I'm now reminded by you and a quick look at his history.. I think it's most unfortunate that Boris hasn't managed to entice him back to the party, or even into that kind of job.
    That Gavin Williamson has a cabinet position, and Rory Stewart doesn’t, is indeed a source of quiet despair
    Stewart is very like certain members [and former members] of this site. Absolutely excellent in his own right, but was driven mad by anti Brexit dogma.
    I think that is a rather odd suggestion. Rory Stewart, more than actual members of the Cabinet at the time, fought hard and openly for May's deal, repeatedly. Whatever his reasons for that, whatever his comments now, and whatever one thinks of that deal (you are not a fan) that is not the action of someone who was driven mad by anti-Brexit dogma. It showed a lot of pragmatism and indeed some boldness in actually defending that pragmatic view whilst others hid.
    Philip is as usual all over the place.

    Philip supported a deal which BoJo now says is rubbish, Stewart at least supported something that was going to be deliverable forever. BoJo's deal didn't even last a year.

    Stewart was literally the opposite of "driven mad", one of the few MPs actually trying to deliver a workable Brexit!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,573

    Aslan said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    But Lisa Doyle, director of advocacy and engagement at the Refugee Council, said: "The government must change its approach. Instead of seeking to punish or push away people seeking safety because of the type of journey they have made to the UK, they must create and commit to safe routes."

    She said: "While there is war, persecution and violence, people will be forced to take dangerous journeys to seek safety.

    "We are talking about ordinary men, women and children who are forced to flee their home through no fault of their own."


    They are taking the piss. No one in the English Channel was facing war, persecution or violence when they left shore. They are taking the British public for mugs.

    Don't we already commit to proper "safe routes"? From refugee camps on the edge of wars like Syria?
    Absolutely 100% the case.

    Take people in desperate need safely and humanely via aircraft from refugee camps.

    Anyone who crosses the Channel instead, pick them up and offer them refuge in Rwanda or somewhere like that.

    The Channel crossings would end overnight if they knew that doing so would see them ending up in Rwanda instead of England. The drownings in the Channel would end overnight too then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,587
    edited August 14

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    It should be noted that in Vietnam the US military machine was beaten effectively by a load of peasants on 1/2 bowl of rice a day and cheap rifles.
    It wasn't, it was just the US decided to withdraw in 1973. They kept North Vietnam out of South Vietnam for over a decade and had they stuck the course South Vietnam might be what South Korea is today
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    It should be noted that in Vietnam the US military machine was beaten effectively by a load of peasants on 1/2 bowl of rice a day and cheap rifles.
    There are uncanny echoes with Vietnam, but also major disparities. The North Vietnamese were funded and aided by the USSR and China, big time. They had enormously powerful allies.

    The Taliban have no allies, except a few mad rich saudis maybe. Yet they have defeated America

    The loss of Afghanistan after a pointless 20 year war is not only costlier and sadder than the loss of Vietnam, it is more telling historically. It is the very end of the American century -1921-2021
    I know there are plenty if the country who do not like them, and they point has been made about warlords switching support and the like, but the, I believe, mostly native nature of the Taliban is surely relevant - they are often talked about as if they are something done to Afghanistan, and they surely do dominate those who do not back them, but they must have significant support in the country and have done despite the occupation for a long time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    Leon said:

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    592 made it over on Thursday:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    If it becomes utterly politically intolerable and the Tories don't sort it out, then a new party will come on the scene that will say it will do whatever it takes and then the law will be what bends.
    Yes. And I don’t think well-meaning lefties understand how quickly this would get extremely visceral, and quasi Fascist. They just bleat and virtue-signal

    We Brexited, and menaced our entire economy, partly because of uncontrolled immigration. An actual sea-borne invasion?? Violence will follow

    The only solution I can see is the Australian tow-them-away-somewhere-safe-but-unpleasant
    I expect we'll be saved from your quasi fascist government by the Mediterranean nations getting there first. Greece already seems to be engaged in mass pushback.
    Perhaps. But the migration pressures are only going to grow, and an awful lot of these migrants want to come to the UK, because of migrants already here, and the English language, and the perception that we are a bit soft (and we are, eg no ID cards, free health care at point of need, etc)

    So there is an incentive for every EU country to just let them in, wave them through, let them go to northern France and Belgium, then make for the UK. Problem sorted - for the EU

    Big big problem for the UK
    Climate change will make it much worse.

    There's going to be huge population growth in Africa over the next 30-50 years. Much of it is already baked in, with very high births over the last 5 years. But what if much of sub-Saharan Africa become uninhabitable, just as Russia and Europe become more fertile?

    Trouble ahead. Big trouble.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,100

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    It should be noted that in Vietnam the US military machine was beaten effectively by a load of peasants on 1/2 bowl of rice a day and cheap rifles.
    There are uncanny echoes with Vietnam, but also major disparities. The North Vietnamese were funded and aided by the USSR and China, big time. They had enormously powerful allies.

    The Taliban have no allies, except a few mad rich saudis maybe. Yet they have defeated America

    The loss of Afghanistan after a pointless 20 year war is not only costlier and sadder than the loss of Vietnam, it is more telling historically. It is the very end of the American century -1921-2021
    Hmm. Maybe. But I seem to recall the same signs of doom were talked about as Saigon fell and the helicopters lifted off with people hanging off the undersides.



    A few years later the cold war was won.
    This is so very very different. The Soviet Union was never - beyond its nukes - the mortal threat that China represents. China is already the biggest trading nation on earth, it is already, on maybe the most important metric, more powerful than the USA, and it only grows

    Meanwhile the USA sinks into political turmoil, quasi-coups, ongoing plague, and the fatal distraction of enervating identity wars

    The West is done as global leader. We can still have nice lives, however, if we learn to defend ourselves from idiots on right and left
  • AslanAslan Posts: 735

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    592 made it over on Thursday:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    If it becomes utterly politically intolerable and the Tories don't sort it out, then a new party will come on the scene that will say it will do whatever it takes and then the law will be what bends.
    Yes. And I don’t think well-meaning lefties understand how quickly this would get extremely visceral, and quasi Fascist. They just bleat and virtue-signal

    We Brexited, and menaced our entire economy, partly because of uncontrolled immigration. An actual sea-borne invasion?? Violence will follow

    The only solution I can see is the Australian tow-them-away-somewhere-safe-but-unpleasant
    Whoever flagged that is an idiot.

    @Leon is making a perfectly legitimate point, and a valid one.

    There's no alternative, even for Lefties, but to engage with this. Argue for high immigration if you like, fine, but it must be controlled.
    What is to stop a big Tory majority from simply saying you can't apply for asylum if you have travelled from a safe country, and to make the reasonable presumption that all rickety boats in the English channel have done?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,744

    Leon said:

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    592 made it over on Thursday:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    If it becomes utterly politically intolerable and the Tories don't sort it out, then a new party will come on the scene that will say it will do whatever it takes and then the law will be what bends.
    Yes. And I don’t think well-meaning lefties understand how quickly this would get extremely visceral, and quasi Fascist. They just bleat and virtue-signal

    We Brexited, and menaced our entire economy, partly because of uncontrolled immigration. An actual sea-borne invasion?? Violence will follow

    The only solution I can see is the Australian tow-them-away-somewhere-safe-but-unpleasant
    I expect we'll be saved from your quasi fascist government by the Mediterranean nations getting there first. Greece already seems to be engaged in mass pushback.
    Perhaps. But the migration pressures are only going to grow, and an awful lot of these migrants want to come to the UK, because of migrants already here, and the English language, and the perception that we are a bit soft (and we are, eg no ID cards, free health care at point of need, etc)

    So there is an incentive for every EU country to just let them in, wave them through, let them go to northern France and Belgium, then make for the UK. Problem sorted - for the EU

    Big big problem for the UK
    Climate change will make it much worse.

    There's going to be huge population growth in Africa over the next 30-50 years. Much of it is already baked in, with very high births over the last 5 years. But what if much of sub-Saharan Africa become uninhabitable, just as Russia and Europe become more fertile?

    Trouble ahead. Big trouble.
    Why would SSA become uninhabitable? It's the mid-latitudes where the trouble will be.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,100
    edited August 14

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    Oh yes, so I'm now reminded by you and a quick look at his history.. I think it's most unfortunate that Boris hasn't managed to entice him back to the party, or even into that kind of job.
    That Gavin Williamson has a cabinet position, and Rory Stewart doesn’t, is indeed a source of quiet despair
    Stewart is very like certain members [and former members] of this site. Absolutely excellent in his own right, but was driven mad by anti Brexit dogma.

    Actually that’s not true. He was never a Remoaner, or at least not the worst kind. I believe he accepted the result but wanted to soften it, and he never campaigned for a 2nd referendum, let alone Revoke

    I am happy to be proven wrong


    Edit: but this implies I am right


    ‘For those who want a second referendum, you risk replacing a sensible Brexit with a No Deal: 'What we anticipate seldom occurs; what we least expect generally happens' - Disraeli’

    https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1069203194117537792?s=21
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,668
    edited August 14
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    It should be noted that in Vietnam the US military machine was beaten effectively by a load of peasants on 1/2 bowl of rice a day and cheap rifles.
    There are uncanny echoes with Vietnam, but also major disparities. The North Vietnamese were funded and aided by the USSR and China, big time. They had enormously powerful allies.

    The Taliban have no allies, except a few mad rich saudis maybe. Yet they have defeated America

    The loss of Afghanistan after a pointless 20 year war is not only costlier and sadder than the loss of Vietnam, it is more telling historically. It is the very end of the American century -1921-2021
    Hmm. Maybe. But I seem to recall the same signs of doom were talked about as Saigon fell and the helicopters lifted off with people hanging off the undersides.



    A few years later the cold war was won.
    This is so very very different. The Soviet Union was never - beyond its nukes - the mortal threat that China represents. China is already the biggest trading nation on earth, it is already, on maybe the most important metric, more powerful than the USA, and it only grows

    Meanwhile the USA sinks into political turmoil, quasi-coups, ongoing plague, and the fatal distraction of enervating identity wars

    The West is done as global leader. We can still have nice lives, however, if we learn to defend ourselves from idiots on right and left
    Good point about the Identity Wars. We are eating ourselves from the inside frankly. Obsessed by epherahel.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 735

    Leon said:

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    At what point would we start shooting at the boats, or just ramming them so they turn around in despair? Scenes like this occurred off Greece recently, so it is not some entirely cruel and sadistic mind game

    There comes a point where this will happen. I’m trying to work out what the tipping point is.

    Clearly, it’s more than what we experience now - at worst, 500 a day make it over?

    But if it was 5,000 daily? Through the year? That’s an illegal immigration rate of 1.8 million a year. Utterly unsustainable and long before then we’d be shooting the boats and letting them drown, if we were unable to think of any other alternative

    The tipping point is around 1000-2000 a day, I suspect. Which is scarily close to where we are already

    1500 a day through the year is 550,000 annual illegal migrants, on top of normal immigration that would be way more immigration than the UK has ever experienced - and most of it entirely chaotic and unpoliced. We are near to something bad

    This is also palpably an election loser for the Tories, unless they get a fix

    592 made it over on Thursday:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-58213583

    If it becomes utterly politically intolerable and the Tories don't sort it out, then a new party will come on the scene that will say it will do whatever it takes and then the law will be what bends.
    Yes. And I don’t think well-meaning lefties understand how quickly this would get extremely visceral, and quasi Fascist. They just bleat and virtue-signal

    We Brexited, and menaced our entire economy, partly because of uncontrolled immigration. An actual sea-borne invasion?? Violence will follow

    The only solution I can see is the Australian tow-them-away-somewhere-safe-but-unpleasant
    I expect we'll be saved from your quasi fascist government by the Mediterranean nations getting there first. Greece already seems to be engaged in mass pushback.
    Perhaps. But the migration pressures are only going to grow, and an awful lot of these migrants want to come to the UK, because of migrants already here, and the English language, and the perception that we are a bit soft (and we are, eg no ID cards, free health care at point of need, etc)

    So there is an incentive for every EU country to just let them in, wave them through, let them go to northern France and Belgium, then make for the UK. Problem sorted - for the EU

    Big big problem for the UK
    Climate change will make it much worse.

    There's going to be huge population growth in Africa over the next 30-50 years. Much of it is already baked in, with very high births over the last 5 years. But what if much of sub-Saharan Africa become uninhabitable, just as Russia and Europe become more fertile?

    Trouble ahead. Big trouble.
    The US struggles to control flows from Mexico, but it has a simple approach for everyone from overseas: there is an asylum cap and they allow in X number each year and no more. There is no reason why the UK cannot do the same.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,573
    edited August 14

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    Oh yes, so I'm now reminded by you and a quick look at his history.. I think it's most unfortunate that Boris hasn't managed to entice him back to the party, or even into that kind of job.
    That Gavin Williamson has a cabinet position, and Rory Stewart doesn’t, is indeed a source of quiet despair
    Stewart is very like certain members [and former members] of this site. Absolutely excellent in his own right, but was driven mad by anti Brexit dogma.
    I think that is a rather odd suggestion. Rory Stewart, more than actual members of the Cabinet at the time, fought hard and openly for May's deal, repeatedly. Whatever his reasons for that, whatever his comments now, and whatever one thinks of that deal (you are not a fan) that is not the action of someone who was driven mad by anti-Brexit dogma. It showed a lot of pragmatism and indeed some boldness in actually defending that pragmatic view whilst others hid.
    Philip is as usual all over the place.

    Philip supported a deal which BoJo now says is rubbish, Stewart at least supported something that was going to be deliverable forever. BoJo's deal didn't even last a year.

    Stewart was literally the opposite of "driven mad", one of the few MPs actually trying to deliver a workable Brexit!
    CHB missing the point as usual.

    Boris's deal was absolutely massively superior than May's and it lasted as long as it needed to last.

    The shorter the NI Protocol lasts the better, that's what you're failing to understand. That the backstop could have been delivered "forever" is a horrifyingly dreadful prospect, that is precisely why I opposed it. There was no way to end it.

    Boris dumped the atrocious backstop with no unilateral exit that we could have been trapped in forever, and instead replaced it with the NI Protocol we could self-destruct after months not an eternity.

    Since the backstop/protocol is a bad thing that the EU wanted, not what we wanted, it not lasting forever is a good thing.

    Your logic is as insane as suggesting a law graduate getting an initial job for minimum wage while they get experience and then seeking a better a job after 6 months that pays better is a failure because their initial job didn't last forever. The whole point is the initial job was not meant to last forever.

    Nothing is supposed to last forever.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,587
    edited August 14
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    It should be noted that in Vietnam the US military machine was beaten effectively by a load of peasants on 1/2 bowl of rice a day and cheap rifles.
    There are uncanny echoes with Vietnam, but also major disparities. The North Vietnamese were funded and aided by the USSR and China, big time. They had enormously powerful allies.

    The Taliban have no allies, except a few mad rich saudis maybe. Yet they have defeated America

    The loss of Afghanistan after a pointless 20 year war is not only costlier and sadder than the loss of Vietnam, it is more telling historically. It is the very end of the American century -1921-2021
    They have not defeated America on the battlefield, just Biden has capitulated and withdrawn US troops as the US withdrew from Vietnam.

    Afghanistan is of course worse than Vietnam though, as North Vietnam never attacked the US or the West.

    Al Qaeda however launched 9/11 from Afghanistan under Taliban protection and if the Taliban retake Kabul and allow the country to become a base for jihadis again it may sadly only be a matter of time until 9/11 2 and the next big terrorist attack on a major western city
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,668
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    It should be noted that in Vietnam the US military machine was beaten effectively by a load of peasants on 1/2 bowl of rice a day and cheap rifles.
    It wasn't, it was just the US decided to withdraw in 1973. They kept North Vietnam out of South Vietnam for over a decade and had they stuck the course South Vietnam might be what South Korea is today
    Er, Tet offensive?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,573
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    It should be noted that in Vietnam the US military machine was beaten effectively by a load of peasants on 1/2 bowl of rice a day and cheap rifles.
    It wasn't, it was just the US decided to withdraw in 1973. They kept North Vietnam out of South Vietnam for over a decade and had they stuck the course South Vietnam might be what South Korea is today
    "Stuck the course" with the draft forever? 🤔
  • kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    Oh yes, so I'm now reminded by you and a quick look at his history.. I think it's most unfortunate that Boris hasn't managed to entice him back to the party, or even into that kind of job.
    That Gavin Williamson has a cabinet position, and Rory Stewart doesn’t, is indeed a source of quiet despair
    Stewart is very like certain members [and former members] of this site. Absolutely excellent in his own right, but was driven mad by anti Brexit dogma.
    I think that is a rather odd suggestion. Rory Stewart, more than actual members of the Cabinet at the time, fought hard and openly for May's deal, repeatedly. Whatever his reasons for that, whatever his comments now, and whatever one thinks of that deal (you are not a fan) that is not the action of someone who was driven mad by anti-Brexit dogma. It showed a lot of pragmatism and indeed some boldness in actually defending that pragmatic view whilst others hid.
    Philip is as usual all over the place.

    Philip supported a deal which BoJo now says is rubbish, Stewart at least supported something that was going to be deliverable forever. BoJo's deal didn't even last a year.

    Stewart was literally the opposite of "driven mad", one of the few MPs actually trying to deliver a workable Brexit!
    CHB missing the poin as usual.

    Boris's deal was absolutely massively superior than May's and it lasted as long as it needed to last.

    The shorter the NI Protocol lasts the better, that's what you're failing to understand. That the backstop could have been delivered "forever" is a horrifyingly dreadful prospect, that is precisely why I opposed it. There was no way to end it.

    Boris dumped the atrocious backstop with no unilateral exit that we could have been trapped in forever, and instead replaced it with the NI Protocol we could self-destruct after months not an eternity.

    Since the backstop/protocol is a bad thing that the EU wanted, not what we wanted, it not lasting forever is a good thing.

    Your logic is as insane as suggesting a law graduate getting an initial job for minimum wage while they get experience and then seeking a better a job after 6 months that pays better is a failure because their initial job didn't last forever. The whole point is the initial job was not meant to last forever.

    Nothing is supposed to last forever.
    You and your mate BoJo campaigned on getting Brexit done. You came on here and said this deal would end the debate, I remember me and others saying you were mistaken.

    So you campaigned on something that you knew that wasn't true. So why when the deal was going through the HoC did you not say then that it would be temporary? You said this was the end, only when BoJo changed his mind did you also.

    When you don't have an actual ideology or set of beliefs, you don't have anything to anchor yourself to. Hence why you change your mind every day.

    If the Brexit policy was good at GE19 and was finishing Brexit as you claimed, you should do the honourable thing and stick by it. Yet you don't.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 961
    edited August 14
    Like Brexit, the subject of asylum seekers and illegal immigration is one that makes people descend in to madness. I fell out with a friend who was the one of the smartest people I ever knew, a humanities lecturer at a top university. He believed in open borders to such a degree that it was like a religious faith for him. He just wouldn't seriously entertain any view to the contrary. To him support for borders was evidence of racism. We agreed on almost everything in politics, but all I needed to say was that I thought Cameron's policy on refugees was right, and then he froze me out and hasn't spoken to me in four years. Its fair to say that this was an important and formative political experience.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    Oh yes, so I'm now reminded by you and a quick look at his history.. I think it's most unfortunate that Boris hasn't managed to entice him back to the party, or even into that kind of job.
    That Gavin Williamson has a cabinet position, and Rory Stewart doesn’t, is indeed a source of quiet despair
    Stewart is very like certain members [and former members] of this site. Absolutely excellent in his own right, but was driven mad by anti Brexit dogma.

    Actually that’s not true. He was never a Remoaner, or at least not the worst kind. I believe he accepted the result but wanted to soften it, and he never campaigned for a 2nd referendum, let alone Revoke

    I am happy to be proven wrong


    Edit: but this implies I am right


    ‘For those who want a second referendum, you risk replacing a sensible Brexit with a No Deal: 'What we anticipate seldom occurs; what we least expect generally happens' - Disraeli’

    https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1069203194117537792?s=21
    That was what I thought too. I also remember him being the one who most nearly convinced me to vote remain. I might also be wrong, but I'm pretty sure I can recall him being positive about the EU rather than relentlessly negative about Brexit.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,945

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    So now they know how the Brits felt during the American Rebellion.

    The reality is that guerrilla warfare in this geographic environment is almost impossible to counter
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,744
    edited August 14
    If anyone likes a bit of a longshot bet, Borussia Dortmund are 50-1 (with Bet365) to win the Champions League. They looked very impressive this evening. They'll always give teams a chance, but going forward they are irresistible. With Haaland look set to stay I think they could win it.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,267

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    It should be noted that in Vietnam the US military machine was beaten effectively by a load of peasants on 1/2 bowl of rice a day and cheap rifles.
    This always amuses me

    This is obviously true that the advanced us military has been defeated by insurgents armed with fairly ancient weapons in vietnam, korea and in afghanistan. Yet people say the american second amendment is wrong because having guns in the hands of citizens of the us wont enable them to stand up to the us governement. I suggest they would do as well as the vietnames, koreans or afghani's
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,945
    jayfdee said:

    Sorry for being off topic but why does a city/town dweller need a shotgun licence.
    For a variety of reasons I have been asked to endorse several applications, I also get asked for passport pics etc, however, I have refused on some occasions, because there is no sensible reason to own one.
    Who endorsed this guy to own one.

    So they can go pheasant shooting
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    I regret Brexit and I would not change my vote to Remain (if I was asked to join the EU I would either abstain or vote to stay out) but I am quite willing to concede that wanting to stop/cancel Brexit was a mistake and we got that wrong. But unlike some others I am prepared to admit that, whereas they just pretend they haven't said things.

    May's deal was the only workable Brexit there ever was and that is becoming obviously clear as each day passes. And for that she has my respect - we should have voted it through.

    We should, but even if people disagree about that, those who did support it clearly were not anti-Brexit loons, as even Boris accepted in its final offering. He got something better (in his eyes), but Stewart was no Grieve.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,573
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    "With all its might and hi-tech sophistication, the US has allowed itself to be beaten by medieval dogmatists on horseback."

    Rory Stewart

    I think we should just pay him a few billion and get him to sort it out. My guess is that he would mostly.
    He is unusually and impressively, genuinely connected with the region. He's also extremely articulate. It's such a shame that he was tossed aside..
    He chose to step aside. I rate him very highly. His specialist subject is Afghanistan, and I'd just let him try. Anything he wants in terms of funding. I'd guess not more than a 30% chance of success, but that's better than the current 0%.
    Oh yes, so I'm now reminded by you and a quick look at his history.. I think it's most unfortunate that Boris hasn't managed to entice him back to the party, or even into that kind of job.
    That Gavin Williamson has a cabinet position, and Rory Stewart doesn’t, is indeed a source of quiet despair
    Stewart is very like certain members [and former members] of this site. Absolutely excellent in his own right, but was driven mad by anti Brexit dogma.

    Actually that’s not true. He was never a Remoaner, or at least not the worst kind. I believe he accepted the result but wanted to soften it, and he never campaigned for a 2nd referendum, let alone Revoke

    I am happy to be proven wrong


    Edit: but this implies I am right


    ‘For those who want a second referendum, you risk replacing a sensible Brexit with a No Deal: 'What we anticipate seldom occurs; what we least expect generally happens' - Disraeli’

    https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1069203194117537792?s=21
    He was willing to back May's backstop Brexit In Name Only, but once it came to voting through to actually exit with or without a deal he was one of the die hard few Tories who refused to do so even knowing it was a confidence vote.
This discussion has been closed.