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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Salmond needs a convincing win in Tuesday’s big IndyRef TV debate to move the polls to YES
One of the big moments in Alex Salmond’s career was a big TV debate of Scottish party leaders in late March 2011. At the time the SNP was trailing LAB in the Holyrood polling and it did look as though SLAB was going to return to power.
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They are trying to play down the debate in case Eck loses badly. Meanwhile... http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/columns/adamboulton/article1441860.ece
Some choice ....
Just by being English Cameron would lose.
Must admit I’ve never thought of the FM as the happy, smiley face of Scotland, but, hey ho…
Perhaps we should have a quick count of PBers who have actually seen any of Darling's indy related performances - those who haven't might be in for a shock. I also think that Darling may have a problem with unfriendly questions from the public. Two years of invitation-only meetings with vetted audiences aren't the ideal prep for these situations.
You really are a Lord haw Haw.
And all those who did should be exterminated as vermin. Vermin, I say: vermin!
LET'S KILL LEFTIES!!!! ALL POWER TO THE TORY PEEBIES!!!!
Uhuh.
You're the pom pom boy for Bettertogether's ground campaign, ain't you? You'd better get your finger out in Glasgow. So far at my address one Westminster funded scare booklet, no phone or doorstep canvassing, no sign of a street campaign (unless you count the Orange Walk). In Glasgow itself, not one single open meeting held or attended by Bettertogether.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=v3cayRMnVb8
What time is kick off?
I notice that Malcolm has his customary good humour on today! I am sure that he will be in form on Tuesday.
Will the result of this debate affect 2015 voting, presuming that NO wins.
Give me any example of anything Darling has ever done that was successful , he wrecked the country, fiddled expenses, got chucked out the faculty of advocates and is the most boring bas**** to listen to on the planet.
Go listen to this video and see the nutjob you try to pretend is great.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/younger-leopard-same-spots/
On the debates, Salmond is expected to win in all the polls, but then so was Obama against Romney, and yet the supposedly deathly dull Mitt won big in the first debate. Charisma does not always project in a debate setting and if Darling is clued up on the facts anything could happen. Remember too even Mondale beat Reagan in their first debate, and David Davis beat Cameron in the 2005 leadership debate
Darling is also a former chancellor, Iain Grey a Scottish opposition leader, a different league.
In any case the alleged 'stunning turnaround' in 2011 is overstated, for example in November 2009 a TNS poll had the SNP leading Labour 40-32% and in Feb 2010 Mori had the SNP ahead 36%-29%, Yes has never polled a lead of anything like that level.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2714199/MacSHAMED-The-diary-jailed-MP-Sweeping-floors-Soho-Nail-Bomber-mocked-fiddling-expenses-fed-VERY-inferior-tuna-baguettes-brilliantly-observed-account-politicians-lot-bars.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoVoBWjcXdU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVM0Rllhw2A&list=UU0B7pV3h_2ywIZve15FYf5w
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zji4dTx-j8w&feature=youtu.be
In any case, Darling can also say he raised the top tax rate to 50%, something Salmond has refused to match if the debate goes on inequality
My guess is that like most political debates it will be frustrating and dull in turn with both participants more focussed on not making a mistake than winning. Salmond has to go for it more because he is behind and his campaign has no momentum at the moment. That will suit him fine because he is better at attack than defence.
Darling will want to focus on the killer issue of the currency and the risks to our financial services industry but I hope he also focusses on the positive benefits Scotland gets from the Union. Going purely negative was a mistake in the early part of the campaign which has been more balanced of late.
The Commonwealth Games brought a lot more Scots into touch with the English than is usually the case and showed they were a lot more like us than the SNP would have us believe. I think this will prove a net benefit to BT in the longer run (TSE is excluded from this generality for obvious reasons).
From my point of view, an independent Scotland would probably have been better for the Scottish people but I would like if Better together wins.
Why ? I don't want splits anymore. I would , in fact, like an United Europe much like Churchill dreamt iof it, free movement of capital, people, mosquitos , anything. One Country. Then we expand that.
I would also like a referendum in the UK re: Europe to lance this boil for the next 50 years. When the real campaign starts, I know what the results will be:
60 - 40 to stay IN !
Tax policy in an independent government will be up to the party in Government in 2016, Salmond cannot say what it will be at this time.
I do not have my snout in any public sector trough as you so boldly say. Unless you publicly withdraw that remark unreservedly, I shall ask OGH for all your contact details so that litigation may commence.
You and other posters have been previously warned and banned for swearing at other posters.
A further repeat and your ability to instantly publish will be revoked.
I doubt either Darling or Salmond's performance in the "debates" will shift many votes one way or the other.
The only people who seem to be arguing are those at the polar opposites, while those of us in the "middle" just quietly despair about the lack of rational information from either side.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/revealed-salmond-s-support-for-goodwin-over-disastrous-rbs-deal-1.1046662
http://player.stv.tv/live/
It seems you have to sign up for an account, but this could be the best way for the rest of the United Kingdom to see the event as it unfolds.
Failing that you'll have to wait until after the debate when it's bound to be put on YouTube.
(Don't forget to tick the "no emails" option if you don't want to be pestered by spam email from STV for years to come
Edited to add: So I'd expect Salmond to make the economic case. The "Braveheart" votes are already in the bag.
Darling would be best served in painting a really positive case of Scotland within the UK (helped by the Commonwealth games ironically), confounding inevitable attempts to paint him as negative and fear-mongering. This will put Salmond in the position of having to diminish Scotland. Salmond would be best served ignoring Darling, and talking over him to Scotland, going for the heartstrings. Most Scottish people, no or yes, are deeply patriotic -the yes argument makes no sense if you think about it, so he needs people's emotions to overcome their cerebral side. He could even try choking up and going for a suspiciously watery eye at one point, though not full on tears, that would cross into weird.
Any claim by any person to have them show what will happen in coming years is just bluster, neither side has a clue given the huge variables involved. It will will all come down to our mentality and to fear or hope, negative or positive, losers or winners.
Seems slightly odd the debate (what're the timings?) won't be aired UK-wide.
There are many reasons for YES and may even be reasons for NO which we may hear before the vote but they are leaving it late to present them.
http://player.stv.tv/schedule/?date=2014-08-05
ThanksGIN1138 Have signed up ready for Tuesday
You are correct, none of us know the future, but one thing we do know is that neither the hyperbole, or the doom mongering we hear are likely to be correct.
Tone it down a few notches, and it might be possible to shift some votes, otherwise all that happens is a hardening of peoples natural bias.
Westminster, and indeed all governments could do with learning this simple fact (and PB as well).
You seem to be comfortable with Hamas sending 3000 rockets into Israel to do just that.
Edit :- i.e. a temporary transfer
It's a sign of the times that a debate that could decide the future of the United Kingdom as we know it, isn't being screened across the ITV network.
There does seem to be a tremendous antipathy about what's going on in Scotland within the London-centric media...