politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov’s latest daily poll has the Tories slumping to the l
Comments
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You see a tragedy coming in childcare ratios, yet deny that a tragedy occurred at Stafford?BenM said:
The attempt to increase childcare quotas scares me rigid.tim said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 3m
Clegg re childcare ratios, points out 1 person looking after 6 two-yr-olds is a nightmare. Says spent 'weeks' talking to PM on it #callclegg
Tim Gatt @TimGattITV 4m
RT @itvnews: Shadow education secretary granted an Urgent Question to Michael Gove on childcare ratios at 9.30am.
Dave's flagship attempt to tackle his issues with women voters going well.
A tragedy waiting to happen caused by a cheapskate government.
Well, I suppose that it's a view.
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The last local elections in Plymouth were in 2012. The aggregate results for the seven wards in Plymouth Moor View were (with changes from GE2010 in brackets):sam said:
Heres where I think they have their best chance, although the Thanet seats look good too nowMick_Pork said:
Mike has them on a bet for two IIRC.JohnLoony said:If UKIP really did get 17% in a general election, it would be very likely to get some seats - albeit maybe only 2 or 3.
Good odds as well.
I just wonder where those seats could be.
....
Plymouth Moor View
Labour = 11637; 51.4% (+14.2)
Conservative = 5975; 26.4% (-6.9)
Lib Dem** = 214; 0.9% (-16.0)
UKIP = 4685; 20.7% (+13.0)
Green* = 136; 0.6% (-0.4)
Turnout = 22647
UKIP were actually up by ~50% on the absolute number of votes received, even though the turnout was only a bit over half that in the 2010 general election, which is impressive, and comes before their recent increases in support.
It will be interesting to see how this changes in the 2014 local elections, but it looks as though Labour are too far ahead for UKIP in this seat.
* One candidate.
** Two candidates.
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'Yes 31%, No 59%'
It's the 1978 World Cup all over again.
Wee Eck can rework the song that accompanied Scotland's victory in the finals as his anthem.
http://www.maxilyrics.com/andy-cameron-ally's-tartan-army-lyrics-c847.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Scotland_national_football_team#1970s0 -
Ah, so on the one hand we're already whining and making excuses about losing, and on the other unrealistically optimistic?Scott_P said:
It's a triumph for Eck. It's great news for the SNP.Theuniondivvie said:All the Nats on here (including me) seem relatively upbeat about it.
The Nats are always wrong upbeat about disastrous polling
The cognitive dissonance of a Scottish Tory who's forgotten what good polling is.
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Near perfect AAA satire even Seth would be hard pressed to match.Blofelds_Cat said:Anyway, he's busy saving the rUK economy for the rest of us.
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Didn't Boris save a maiden in distress too?sam said:Regarding Action Man Ed , Lamb saver Dave and Scott and tims squabbling about who staged what, isnt it true that their are photo's of neither incident, there were no press at the scene of either incident, and they could both just be true stories that are good publicity for both men?
It seems that Eds story is better for the narrative than Daves. Saving a mixed race Londoner rather than a sheep in the countryide is probably better for the image they are trying to project.
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Why is Mick Pork calling people trolls for posting valuable economic updates? The health of the economy is an important determinant of political events. I'd say there was a far larger case for calling people "trolls" that say things like "Bliar", "Cammie Blair" or "George Osbrowne".-1
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There's an inflammatory story on the BBC website which will go absolutely nowhere but raises some very difficult points:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22459815
The NSPCC's reaction is as hysterically incorrect as the barrister's original suggestion was absurdly complacent. The barrister is correct to say that "touching a 17-year-old's breast, kissing a 13-year-old, or putting one's hand up a 16-year-old's skirt" are not crimes comparable to gang rapes and murders and "anyone suggesting otherwise has lost touch with reality". Most of us, however, will have little sympathy with a man who seems to have abused his position as a celebrity for his own base pleasure.
Until 1929, boys could get married at 14 and girls could get married at 12. Our idea that childhood ends at 16 is a historically recent one.0 -
@Alanbrooke
'if he can pull himself out of the swamp as well as a sheep'
I missed the report of Cameron pulling himself out of a sheep.
Link please.
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Nice chap but quite useless really. Will not be missed.AndreaParma_82 said:Alun Ffred Jones (Plaid, Arfon) announces retirement plans for 2016 Welsh Assembly elections. He was born in 1949 and first elected to the Assembly in 2003.
At Assembly level, Arfon is safe Plaid: 30.5% majority in 2011.-1 -
You are simultaneously claiming that English Tories are boosting the SNP cause, and losing them the referendum.Theuniondivvie said:so on the one hand we're already whining and making excuses about losing, and on the other unrealistically optimistic?
Cognitive dissonance is indeed the phrase to describe it.
Stay cheerful, less than 3 months to go now...
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Same reason the partisan PBtory and you are.Socrates said:Why is Mick Pork calling people trolls
But so be it. Valuable economic updates it is.Clegg said continued EU membership was necessary, for security, to protect jobs and to ensure Britain's continued influence on the international stage.
Remember, it must be true because it's economic scaremongering. The PBtories love that.
"I think leaving it now would make us less safe," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. "It makes us less prosperous, it jeopardises, potentially, up to 3 million jobs … it also means we'll be taken less seriously in Washington, Tokyo. … for all these reasons, I think it's the wrong thing to do … it's part of an anguished debate within the Tory party; they've had it before, they'll have it again."
After Ukip's strong showing in last week's county council elections, David Cameron is facing growing pressure from Eurosceptics within his party to advance legislation on a referendum on UK membership of the EU in this parliament.
The fact that Cammie has said the same much the same things only adds to the hilarity.-1 -
White British in Barking constituency were 46% in 2011 Census (compared to 80% in 2001). BAME were already at 40% in 2011. By 2015, they may be in the lead.sam said:
I know local knowledge is despised around these parts, but the Thurrock, Barking and Dag & Rainham ones would seem like good bets without any stat, just by the attitude of lots the people I know to immigration/foreigners.
Hodge's good 2010 result wasn't just due to hard work.
This will help making Labour secure in Barking but could have opposite effect on Havering
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Morning all
About four weeks ago, I posted about my "barometer" area for the County Council elections - the ten seats within the Guildford Borough. In 2009, the Conservatives won seven of the ten and the Liberal Democrats took the other three. I thought this time the Conservatives would win five, the Liberal Democrats four and UKIP would gain the seat of Shalford for which the Conservative Agent had failed to submit nomination papers in good time.
I thought UKIP would poll strongly across the Guildford Borough seats. I was mostly right.
We can split the seats into roughly three groups - the safe Conservative seats, the safe Liberal Democrat seats and the marginal Conservative-Liberal Democrat seats, two of which (Guildford East and Guildford SE) had been captured by the Conservatives in 2009.
Let's start with the safe Conservative seats - Ash, Horsleys and Shere. The UKIP impact in these seats was much more muted than I expected and in truth although they came second, UKIP were nowhere near winning these seats and indeed the Conservative vote shares didn't fall that much (only a 4% drop in Ash and Horsleys) apart from Shere which saw a 13% drop but from a start of 70%.
The Liberal Democrats took a beating across the Borough - down 12% in Guildford West, 15% in Guildford SW, 17% in Worplesdon and 19% in Guildford North and Guildford SE. If that decline had gone to the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats would have been wiped out in Guildford but that's not what happened and indeed it's possible to argue that UKIP and Labour saved the three Lib Dem seats.
In Guilkdford North, the Conservative share fell 8% as UKIP finished a close third on 21%. In Guildford SW, the Tory vote share remained static as both Labour and UKIP hoovered up votes and the same happened in Guildford West where the Conservatives slumped from second to fourth.
The strongest Conservative performances were in those seats which they won in 2005 and 2009 from the Lib Dems and where presumably they had been campaigning. In Guildford East and Guildford SE, the Conservative vote rose as the Lib Dem slumped and the same happened in Worplesdon where the Conservative vote went up 3% and UKIP gained 12%. UKIP gained some votes in these seats but it wasn't a spectacular advance.
Finally, to Shalford which UKIP won with 51% of the voter defeating the Lib Dems on 37% (that share well up on 2009) though turnout was just 27%. Horsleys recorded a 36% turnout but everywhere else was around 30-34% so down on 2009.
Lessons - an awful night for the Liberal Democrats but thanks to UKIP and Labour not as bad as it could have been. For the Conservatives, conversely, not too bad despite the headline numbers. The old lesson of maintaining local campaigning to achieve success was clearly demonstrated.For UKIP, strong advances but nowhere much above 20% (except Shalford) and in the more solid Conservative bastions and in seats with a more Labour presence, more muted progress. Labour progressed in a few pockets where they could but Guildford isn't a target for them anytime soon.0 -
My best advice is to keep your money in your pocket , many of the seats on this list are completely no hopes for UKIP . I would tend to agree that Barking , Dagenham and the Thurrock seats are possibles but they depend on the racist BNP votes which as we saw in 2010 will tend to go Labour rather than BNP as in the local elections 2007 to 2009 .sam said:
HiMarkSenior said:
Not sure why you have the Staffs Moorlands and Newcastle Under Lyme seats on your list , they were areas where UKIP did well in 2009 but made no progress last week and in fact went backwards .sam said:
Heres where I think they have their best chance, although the Thanet seats look good too nowMick_Pork said:
Mike has them on a bet for two IIRC.JohnLoony said:If UKIP really did get 17% in a general election, it would be very likely to get some seats - albeit maybe only 2 or 3.
Good odds as well.
I just wonder where those seats could be.
S Bas & E Thurrock
Thurrock
Bromsgrove
Halesown & Rowley Regis
Staffordshire Moorlands
Dudley North
Morley & Outwood
Newcastle Under Lyme**
Stoke on Trent South
Telford
Walsall North
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton NE
Barking
Dag & Rain
Plymouth Moor View
I just tried to work out a formula based on by election results since 2010 on where UKIP gained votes from the big 3. Didnt look into any history so some will be very wrong, indeed lots maybe very wrong.
I know local knowledge is despised around these parts, but the Thurrock, Barking and Dag & Rainham ones would seem like good bets without any stat, just by the attitude of lots the people I know to immigration/foreigners.
But I would back any of the above at a price I have in mind
next bests would be these (according to my formula, any advice on where it may be nonsense appreciated)
Broadland
Great Yarmouth
Peterborough
West Suffolk
Burton
Cannock Chase
Ludlow
Stourbridge
Bexhill & Battle
Dartford
Dover
Folkestone & Hythe
Hastings & Rye
Spelthorne
N Warks
Brirmingham Northfield
Stoke on Trent Central
Stoke on Trent North
West Brom East
Birmingham Yardley
Solihull
Hx & Upm
Erith & Thamesmead
Bournemouth East
Bridgewater & W Somerset
Christchurch
East Devon
Kingswood
Newton Abbot
Poole
SE Cornwall
Torridge & W Devon
Totnes
N Devon
Wells
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New marginal wards. The Speccy reports that UKIP "secured more second places than any other party last Thursday ".
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/8905681/the-tories-need-their-own-nigel-farage-2/
What does the new "pattern of party competition" look like for the next county elections?
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/04/29/if-lab-is-going-to-win-the-numbers-of-seats-at-le2013-that-are-being-predicted-then-its-going-to-have-to-take-a-fair-number-from-3rd-place/0 -
Biggest contributor to that was "Metal Products", which was +0.26 to the index of Production, more than one-third of the net increase. Perhaps metal-bashing isn't a thing of the past?TGOHF said:David Smith @dsmitheconomics 1m
Better news from industry. Manufacturing output up by 1.1% in March, overall industrial production up 0.7%: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_309178.pdf …
Figure 1 is pretty ugly, though.0 -
I think UKIP could well get alot of strong seconds (Hopefully 2 1sts also) for instance in Barking I don't think they beat M Hodge but heading into 2019/20 GE the remaining CON voters then tactically vote UKIP as they are the only party that can realistically beat the LAB in that seat.
Its a pattern thats happened with the left in alot of LD/LAB wards - the LD or LAB candidate gets just ahead of the CON candidate (Or just behind) then next time all the votes swing in behind the best placed party.
Of course long term thats bad news for the party being squeezed in those seats as you can recover from a 2nd place to win the seat - to do it from a poor 3rd or 4th (Unless you are on a hell of an upswing) is alot harder. Whilst in 2015 UKIP is a much bigger CON problem, long term it becomes just as much an issue for LAB too.0 -
Oh please lets not get into the reasons for that BAME % being that high!!AndreaParma_82 said:
White British in Barking constituency were 46% in 2011 Census (compared to 80% in 2001). BAME were already at 40% in 2011. By 2015, they may be in the lead.sam said:
I know local knowledge is despised around these parts, but the Thurrock, Barking and Dag & Rainham ones would seem like good bets without any stat, just by the attitude of lots the people I know to immigration/foreigners.
Hodge's good 2010 result wasn't just due to hard work.
This will make Labour safe in Barking but could have the opposite effect on Degenham.
Good point, I guess it will depend on the turnout for each section of society
The two Thurrock seats dont depend on that, and I guess Hornchurch and Upminster could feel the effect of the change in the Barking and Dag & Rain constuencies.. I also think there must be a decent chance of Angela Watkinson defeceting/retiring if Cammo keeps on the way he is
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Watkinson
if so I might stand!
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Why, thank you - I'm flattered.Mick_Pork said:
Near perfect AAA satire even Seth would be hard pressed to match.Blofelds_Cat said:Anyway, he's busy saving the rUK economy for the rest of us.
Disappointed it wasn't 'hilarious', mind you.0 -
Making stuff up again.Scott_P said:
You are simultaneously claiming that English Tories are boosting the SNP cause, and losing them the referendum.
Obviously the painful knowledge that you have to depend on Darling, Alexander, Murphy and SLAB to keep your Ruritanian fantasy alive is getting to you.
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@MarkSenior
My best advice is to keep your money in your pocket , many of the seats on this list are completely no hopes for UKIP . I would tend to agree that Barking , Dagenham and the Thurrock seats are possibles but they depend on the racist BNP votes which as we saw in 2010 will tend to go Labour rather than BNP as in the local elections 2007 to 2009 .
Well you say that...
...but what price would you have given me 2 years ago that UKIP would finish 2nd in four by elections by now? Or that they would be 3rd in the polls most of the time?
Are there non racist BNP votes by the way??!!
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Just because someone is of an ethnic minority (I do so dislike the term "Minority Ethnic", it's not pukka English!) it doesn't preclude them from being a BOOer!sam said:
Oh please lets not get into the reasons for that BAME % being that high!!AndreaParma_82 said:
White British in Barking constituency were 46% in 2011 Census (compared to 80% in 2001). BAME were already at 40% in 2011. By 2015, they may be in the lead.sam said:
I know local knowledge is despised around these parts, but the Thurrock, Barking and Dag & Rainham ones would seem like good bets without any stat, just by the attitude of lots the people I know to immigration/foreigners.
Hodge's good 2010 result wasn't just due to hard work.
This will make Labour safe in Barking but could have the opposite effect on Degenham.
Good point, I guess it will depend on the turnout for each section of society
The two Thurrock seats dont depend on that, and I guess Hornchurch and Upminster could feel the effect of the change in the Barking and Dag & Rain constuency.. I also think there must be a decent chance of Angela Watkinson defeceting/retiring if Cammo keeps on the way he is
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Watkinson
if so I might stand!0 -
@tnewtondunn: Liz Truss giving it back to Cleggers in spades at the Despatch Box now. Her stock will soar among Tory backbenchers for that.0
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Can Clegg's EU-enthusiasm be explained by his being a former MEP?Scott_P said:@tnewtondunn: Liz Truss giving it back to Cleggers in spades at the Despatch Box now. Her stock will soar among Tory backbenchers for that.
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Ruritanian fantasies ; The Prisoner of Alexander ( released ) , The Heart of Princess Nicola ( spoken for ), and Sir Rupert of Oz ( optioned ).Theuniondivvie said:Scott_P said:
You are simultaneously claiming that English Tories are boosting the SNP cause, and losing them the referendum.
Making stuff up again.
Obviously the painful knowledge that you have to depend on Darling, Alexander, Murphy and SLAB to keep your Ruritanian fantasy alive is getting to you.
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Excluding postal votes, Barking constituency went from 1% Ken lead in 2008 to a 30% Ken's lead in 20120
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I dislike any kind of category really. If we were honest and open about racism then these terms would be redundant.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Just because someone is of an ethnic minority (I do so dislike the term "Minority Ethnic", it's not pukka English!) it doesn't preclude them from being a BOOer!sam said:
Oh please lets not get into the reasons for that BAME % being that high!!AndreaParma_82 said:
White British in Barking constituency were 46% in 2011 Census (compared to 80% in 2001). BAME were already at 40% in 2011. By 2015, they may be in the lead.sam said:
I know local knowledge is despised around these parts, but the Thurrock, Barking and Dag & Rainham ones would seem like good bets without any stat, just by the attitude of lots the people I know to immigration/foreigners.
Hodge's good 2010 result wasn't just due to hard work.
This will make Labour safe in Barking but could have the opposite effect on Degenham.
Good point, I guess it will depend on the turnout for each section of society
The two Thurrock seats dont depend on that, and I guess Hornchurch and Upminster could feel the effect of the change in the Barking and Dag & Rain constuency.. I also think there must be a decent chance of Angela Watkinson defeceting/retiring if Cammo keeps on the way he is
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Watkinson
if so I might stand!
Of course anyone can be a BOOer, it was Andrea who made the point about BAME or whatever it is, and a lot of the Asian community in Barking and Dagenham are not recent immigrants as Im sure you know. That said, I think a lot of the recent arrivals to the area are unlikely UKIP voters.
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Some amusing entries for #EdMilibandFilms on TwitterMonikerDiCanio said:Ruritanian fantasies ; The Prisoner of Alexander , The Heart of Princess Nicola, and Sir Rupert of Oz.
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Whats your point Baroness Timsi?tim said:UKIP/BNP vote London 2009 = 15.7%
UKIP/BNP vote nationally 2009 = 22.7%
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5w4ylfQycM0 -
Since 2009, 0.8% of GDP has been wiped out because of falls in oil and gas production.
The current downturn has been a perfect storm for the government. Falling oil and gas output, terrible trading conditions in Europe and increasing signs of trade protectionism from the EU. It's a wonder GDP has risen at all since 2009...0 -
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But Boris still won the Greater London vote!AndreaParma_82 said:Excluding postal votes, Barking constituency went from 1% Ken lead in 2008 to a 30% Ken's lead in 2012
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It has been already established they can be booer, they probably vote for Hodge.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Just because someone is of an ethnic minority (I do so dislike the term "Minority Ethnic", it's not pukka English!) it doesn't preclude them from being a BOOer!
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Has he found his missing EU pension?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Can Clegg's EU-enthusiasm be explained by his being a former MEP?Scott_P said:@tnewtondunn: Liz Truss giving it back to Cleggers in spades at the Despatch Box now. Her stock will soar among Tory backbenchers for that.
http://www.ironiestoo.blogspot.co.uk/2011/12/what-happened-to-nick-cleggs-eu-pension.html0 -
It's a pity that the SNP are making such a complete hash of their campaign for independence. You'd have thought that, with 50 years or so to prepare, they'd have had a coherent position on the most basic questions such as which currency Scotland would adopt; instead they've switched position at least three times, and reacted to Osborne pointing out the obvious truth that it takes two to make a currency union like Glasgow drunks spoiling for a fight. Their reaction on the obvious truth that they'd have to negotiate terms with the EU if they wanted to join it was equally full of aggressive and nonsensical bluster.
This was always going to be a very hard referendum to win, but it's now looking close to impossible.
This is a pity. I think separation would be in the interests both of Scotland and of the rest of the UK. Although in recent years large parts of Scotland have drifted into a semi-passive dependency on public sector jobs exported from England and benefits underwritten by the UK taxpayer, for a small country Scotland has nonetheless a rich and diverse economy, including oil & gas, a booming international oil services sector based in Aberdeen, hydroelectric power, fishing, tourism, upmarket agricultural and food products (Aberdeen Angus, Scottish smoked salmon), whisky, hi-tech manufacturing/assembly, a world-class set of universities and medical schools, call-centres and outsourced administration, and a slightly diminished but still significant financial-services sector specialising in fund management and life insurance. OK, some of those are relatively niche sectors, but the population is only 5.3m: there is plenty there to make Scotland very prosperous indeed, if it can build on the old Scottish traditions of canniness, the protestant work ethic, and financial prudence.
No doubt independence would provide a bit of a short-term Thatcherite shock as the direct support of the UK taxpayer and UK-funded public sector and defence jobs were removed, but I'm very confident the Scottish people would respond by regaining the entrepreneurial spirit they used to be known for, and sorting out their schools (one of their weakest points). The net result would surely be beneficial over time: the current mindset of dependency on the UK taxpayer (the fault of the Barnett formula?) is not in Scotland's long-term interest. Nor is it in the interests of the rest of us.
Unfortunately, I don't think it will happen.0 -
@GeorgeWParker: Liz Truss: childcare costs 27pc of income in england, 11pc in france. Its an emotive issue, but she is right to take on clegg over this.0
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Sort of on-topic, Sunny Hundal writes a blogpost on a dog that hasn't barked, the url being self-explanatory:
http://liberalconspiracy.org/2013/05/08/why-havent-the-greens-become-popular-since-the-financial-crash-rather-than-ukip/
I'd say that he's got the answer more or less spot-on. The Greens have been far too comfortable relaxing in the shadow of Labour, when they should have been energetically campaigning for the anti-big business vote.0 -
@tim
Channeling Baroness Warsi will probably work for Labour as well as it did for the Conservatives...look how her comments got rid of the UKIP problem
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrVcmTL7uqc0 -
If we're discussing UKIP prospects in London, we have the small matter of the Borough elections next year. London is critical for all parties but I wonder whether its economic divergence from the rest of the UK might manifest in a political divergence.
In my own Borough of Newham, Labour hold all 60 seats. In 2010, the opposition wasn't just routed, it was crushed. Could UKIP make any impression here? The last even semi-serious contenders were Respect and it's possible UKIP could pick up say 20% in the Mayoral election but winning any Borough seats? They've as much chance as the Conservatives or the Lib Dems to be honest.
I( also wonder if, as has been implied elsewhere, Barking & Dagenham or possibly Redbridge will be seen as better UKIP prospects and any activists will be diverted there.0 -
I know.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But Boris still won the Greater London vote!AndreaParma_82 said:Excluding postal votes, Barking constituency went from 1% Ken lead in 2008 to a 30% Ken's lead in 2012
I assumed Sam and others still remember it too!
The implication of that data was that despite Boris still winning (and getting just a 1% swing against in first prefs), Barking's constituency showed a 14% swing to Ken.
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Where did I do that? Barking, Dagenham & Rainham are on the outskirts of London and are part of Essex too, Thurrock and Basildon are in Essex and in no way part of Londontim said:@sam
My point is that you are fantasising about the levels of support for UKIP in London.
You make some good points on here sometimes, but you are embarrassing yourself by mimicking Warsi, someone you claim is incompetent0 -
Simple reason. would the greens make the following more or less expensive?antifrank said:Sort of on-topic, Sunny Hundal writes a blogpost on a dog that hasn't barked, the url being self-explanatory:
http://liberalconspiracy.org/2013/05/08/why-havent-the-greens-become-popular-since-the-financial-crash-rather-than-ukip/
I'd say that he's got the answer more or less spot-on. The Greens have been far too comfortable relaxing in the shadow of Labour, when they should have been energetically campaigning for the anti-big business vote.
1) car travel
2) airtravel
3) electricity usage
Basically the greens principle is to make life worse off and less fun... and you wonder why people don't like that?0 -
@Slackbladder That's all that's on offer from any of the political parties at present. The Greens could at least present their version as having a higher moral purpose.0
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I doubt very much that UKIP are going to outpoll their shire vote in a city full of immigrants, by that I mean people who dont consider it home including white brits from Manchester, Cornwall, Glasgow, you are right there!tim said:@Sam.
Given that you aren't prepared to assess UKIPs chances of outpolling their performances in the Shires in even the most favourable (by your definition) half of London at less than 7/4 then we are in agreement aren't we?
Although you are not confident enough that Im wrong to back the 4/70 -
That's simply wrong, at least both Osborne and Balls understand the impact of fuel duty increases.antifrank said:@Slackbladder That's all that's on offer from any of the political parties at present. The Greens could at least present their version as having a higher moral purpose.
The greens would actively push the price of things up to stop people using them.0 -
Don’t listen to UKIP; but do listen to their voters - says John Denham
"Having spent the last few weeks in Eastleigh and county elections across southern England, I’ve done rather a lot of listening. Let me share a few thoughts.
Firstly, most of the UKIP voters I have met are people I would like my Labour Party to attract and represent.
Secondly, when they complain, they’ve often got something to complain about. I have no hesitation in saying that the pace with which my home city, Southampton, changed through migration over the past 15 years was too far and too fast to be comfortable.
Thirdly, whatever Nigel Farage might say, these voters’ views cannot simply be categorised as right wing.
Fourthly, trying to counter fears with facts is tough going when the audience doesn’t trust the messenger. Because they blame ‘the governing classes’ for all this change, they are sceptical when we say we are dealing with a problem, or that the problem – like access to social housing – is wildly exaggerated. And they don’t think we understand the issues where there is a major problem. We can fool ourselves that ‘it would be alright if only they understood the truth’ but not them.
Fifthly, they care about their country. They care about where it’s going and how it’s changing. And at the moment they are pretty pessimistic, for themselves and their children."
http://labourlist.org/2013/05/dont-listen-to-ukip-but-do-listen-to-their-voters/0 -
Slackbladder said:
That's simply wrong, at least both Osborne and Balls understand the impact of fuel duty increases.antifrank said:@Slackbladder That's all that's on offer from any of the political parties at present. The Greens could at least present their version as having a higher moral purpose.
The greens would actively push the price of things up to stop people using them.
For all their faults the Tories , UKIP , Labour and the LibDems are at least on the side of humanity. The Greens are anti-human.
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The other thought that occurs to me is that for all the talk about a vast groujndswell oif support for radical change and seething anger at the political elite, quite a lot of people are prepared to come out and support that elite and maintain the status quo.
I would argue that the only two radical Governments we have had since 1945 (Attlee and Thatcher) demonstrate that for most people most of the time the system mostly works. There are people doing all right happy with the way things are and we shouldn't forget them because they don't stand up and shout their content.
In most elections, the content outvote the discontent and when Governments change it's as much about a change of style and management as a change of direction.0 -
Blimey, how relevant is point four to this site!!Financier said:Don’t listen to UKIP; but do listen to their voters - says John Denham
"Having spent the last few weeks in Eastleigh and county elections across southern England, I’ve done rather a lot of listening. Let me share a few thoughts.
Firstly, most of the UKIP voters I have met are people I would like my Labour Party to attract and represent.
Secondly, when they complain, they’ve often got something to complain about. I have no hesitation in saying that the pace with which my home city, Southampton, changed through migration over the past 15 years was too far and too fast to be comfortable.
Thirdly, whatever Nigel Farage might say, these voters’ views cannot simply be categorised as right wing.
Fourthly, trying to counter fears with facts is tough going when the audience doesn’t trust the messenger. Because they blame ‘the governing classes’ for all this change, they are sceptical when we say we are dealing with a problem, or that the problem – like access to social housing – is wildly exaggerated. And they don’t think we understand the issues where there is a major problem. We can fool ourselves that ‘it would be alright if only they understood the truth’ but not them.
Fifthly, they care about their country. They care about where it’s going and how it’s changing. And at the moment they are pretty pessimistic, for themselves and their children."
http://labourlist.org/2013/05/dont-listen-to-ukip-but-do-listen-to-their-voters/
On point three, Farage argued that it was not right wing with Portillo on This Week last Thursday
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urgh voters...but they're like bigots and stuff.... (says labour)Financier said:Don’t listen to UKIP; but do listen to their voters - says John Denham
"Having spent the last few weeks in Eastleigh and county elections across southern England, I’ve done rather a lot of listening. Let me share a few thoughts.
Firstly, most of the UKIP voters I have met are people I would like my Labour Party to attract and represent.
Secondly, when they complain, they’ve often got something to complain about. I have no hesitation in saying that the pace with which my home city, Southampton, changed through migration over the past 15 years was too far and too fast to be comfortable.
Thirdly, whatever Nigel Farage might say, these voters’ views cannot simply be categorised as right wing.
Fourthly, trying to counter fears with facts is tough going when the audience doesn’t trust the messenger. Because they blame ‘the governing classes’ for all this change, they are sceptical when we say we are dealing with a problem, or that the problem – like access to social housing – is wildly exaggerated. And they don’t think we understand the issues where there is a major problem. We can fool ourselves that ‘it would be alright if only they understood the truth’ but not them.
Fifthly, they care about their country. They care about where it’s going and how it’s changing. And at the moment they are pretty pessimistic, for themselves and their children."
http://labourlist.org/2013/05/dont-listen-to-ukip-but-do-listen-to-their-voters/0 -
@Slackbladder Someone is going to have to pay for the deficit. It can be through spending cuts, increased taxes or (more likely) both. We're all going to be worse off and have less fun, one way or another.0
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Does Cameron support IN or OUT for his own Cast Iron referendum?RichardNabavi said:It's a pity that the SNP are making such a complete hash of their campaign for independence. You'd have thought that, with 50 years or so to prepare, they'd have had a coherent position on the most basic questions.
Bit hard to get any more basic a question than that, isn't it?
Quite.
Wiser for tory spinners to leave the actual referendum to those who are having one and you can weave all the near perfect spin for Cammie's imaginary referendum since it's just not going to happen.Dave King @kingkeyworth 12m
Get started on spinning that positively because it certainly looks like more and more tories are fast bailing out of Cammie's sinking referendum ship.
Michael Portillo: Cameron's EU referendum is an 'insincere ploy' - Telegraph http://fb.me/2YWdhbC6H
You certainly have the out of touch and arrogant nasty party style perfectly imitated.RichardNabavi said:Although in recent years large parts of Scotland have drifted into a semi-passive dependency on public sector jobs exported from England and benefits underwritten by the UK taxpayer..
..the current mindset of dependency on the UK taxpayer (the fault of the Barnett formula?)
I look forward to anyone in the NO campaign saying something quite so stupid, utterly counterproductive and wrong.
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Of course that pearly kings nonsense is a myth, and dont get me started on the Kraystim said:@Sam
people who dont consider it home
We're back to the "a community pub is one that a UKIP supporter defines as being a community pub" argument from yesterday aren't we.
Utterly pointless.
The notion of Londoners all being pearly kings and the Krays being nice to their mum has always been a bit of a myth.
#onlykilledtheirown
But it is true that London is different to a lot of the nation in the fact that people who live there think of somewhere else as home, so dont care about/embrace the fact that it is transient and has a lack of community, because it is just a pit stop
I lived in Kentish Town for a few years and it was a fun place to live, made better no doubt by the multi cultural aspect of the area.I didnt really care about keeping it as it had always been because I didnt know how it used to be. I would think that is the attitude of many people who live in London but are not from London
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As many have already said on twitter, Labour hold Manchester United
David Moyes wanted Andy Burnham as leader in 20100 -
0
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0
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LOLtim said:The lunatic is on the grass.
norman smith @BBCNormanS 15m
Tory Peter Bone floats idea of allowing Conservative MPs to include Tory and UKIP logo on ballot papers
Probably his wife's idea.
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Just because someone is rich today does not mean they have to be Tories !AndreaParma_82 said:As many have already said on twitter, Labour hold Manchester United
David Moyes wanted Andy Burnham as leader in 2010
Tories may have given him an additional 5% but ain't gonna get his vote.0 -
'I have no hesitation in saying that the pace with which my home city, Southampton, changed through migration over the past 15 years was too far and too fast to be comfortable.'
Imagine the hue and cry if an Evil Tory had run that line.
Tim would explode.
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Banging on about Europe. The master strategy to end all master strategies.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnexpress
Here is DTel version of Portillo story. NB every word could easily have been said by Nigel Farage
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10045760/Michael-Portillo-Camerons-EU-referendum-is-an-insincere-ploy.html …0 -
Well that's not hugely different from the labour/co-op party combination.tim said:The lunatic is on the grass.
norman smith @BBCNormanS 15m
Tory Peter Bone floats idea of allowing Conservative MPs to include Tory and UKIP logo on ballot papers
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Point five is also a very relevant point that politicians across the spectrum should appreciate. People are patriotic and like to express pride in their country, not be looked upon with suspicion and labelled racists when they want to preserve their own culture.sam said:
Blimey, how relevant is point four to this site!!Financier said:Don’t listen to UKIP; but do listen to their voters - says John Denham
"Having spent the last few weeks in Eastleigh and county elections across southern England, I’ve done rather a lot of listening. Let me share a few thoughts.
Firstly, most of the UKIP voters I have met are people I would like my Labour Party to attract and represent.
Secondly, when they complain, they’ve often got something to complain about. I have no hesitation in saying that the pace with which my home city, Southampton, changed through migration over the past 15 years was too far and too fast to be comfortable.
Thirdly, whatever Nigel Farage might say, these voters’ views cannot simply be categorised as right wing.
Fourthly, trying to counter fears with facts is tough going when the audience doesn’t trust the messenger. Because they blame ‘the governing classes’ for all this change, they are sceptical when we say we are dealing with a problem, or that the problem – like access to social housing – is wildly exaggerated. And they don’t think we understand the issues where there is a major problem. We can fool ourselves that ‘it would be alright if only they understood the truth’ but not them.
Fifthly, they care about their country. They care about where it’s going and how it’s changing. And at the moment they are pretty pessimistic, for themselves and their children."
http://labourlist.org/2013/05/dont-listen-to-ukip-but-do-listen-to-their-voters/
On point three, Farage argued that it was not right wing with Portillo on This Week last Thursday0 -
Or, even hold the deficit steady and have a little inflation as Osborne is trying with the housing market [ to start with ].antifrank said:@Slackbladder Someone is going to have to pay for the deficit. It can be through spending cuts, increased taxes or (more likely) both. We're all going to be worse off and have less fun, one way or another.
Inflation also reduces "real" debt as % of GDP.
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Well it would be on the assumption that ukip wouldn't then...dur....tim said:Slackbladder said:
Well that's not hugely different from the labour/co-op party combination.tim said:The lunatic is on the grass.
norman smith @BBCNormanS 15m
Tory Peter Bone floats idea of allowing Conservative MPs to include Tory and UKIP logo on ballot papers
I wasn't aware that the Co-op party was a rival party fielding rival candidates.
Sometimes the level of ignorance shown on here is jaw dropping.0 -
John Denham has seen the light, and the problem Labour face.
Meantime, tim posts pictures of piss stained album covers from his bedsit.0 -
@surbiton That merely passes the cost of reducing the debt onto a different group. None of these options are pain-free. You just select different victims according to taste.0
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The Labour candidate for Aberdeen Donside by-election has already drown on Day 1
http://news.stv.tv/north/224503-labours-willie-young-refuses-to-say-party-would-reverse-college-cuts/0 -
Unbelievably unpleasant argument from Stuart Hall's lawyer:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22459815
She seems to think dirty old men should be able to molest 13 year olds.
EDIT: I also note that she seems to think crimes that happened a long time ago don't matter, and their victims should go without justice. What a horrible woman.0 -
Yes and I think UKIP and their supporters should stress that this applies to every country in the world not just EnglandSocrates said:
Point five is also a very relevant point that politicians across the spectrum should appreciate. People are patriotic and like to express pride in their country, not be looked upon with suspicion and labelled racists when they want to preserve their own culture.sam said:
Blimey, how relevant is point four to this site!!Financier said:Don’t listen to UKIP; but do listen to their voters - says John Denham
"Having spent the last few weeks in Eastleigh and county elections across southern England, I’ve done rather a lot of listening. Let me share a few thoughts.
Firstly, most of the UKIP voters I have met are people I would like my Labour Party to attract and represent.
Secondly, when they complain, they’ve often got something to complain about. I have no hesitation in saying that the pace with which my home city, Southampton, changed through migration over the past 15 years was too far and too fast to be comfortable.
Thirdly, whatever Nigel Farage might say, these voters’ views cannot simply be categorised as right wing.
Fourthly, trying to counter fears with facts is tough going when the audience doesn’t trust the messenger. Because they blame ‘the governing classes’ for all this change, they are sceptical when we say we are dealing with a problem, or that the problem – like access to social housing – is wildly exaggerated. And they don’t think we understand the issues where there is a major problem. We can fool ourselves that ‘it would be alright if only they understood the truth’ but not them.
Fifthly, they care about their country. They care about where it’s going and how it’s changing. And at the moment they are pretty pessimistic, for themselves and their children."
http://labourlist.org/2013/05/dont-listen-to-ukip-but-do-listen-to-their-voters/
On point three, Farage argued that it was not right wing with Portillo on This Week last Thursday
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Stone me! How does the fact that he molested a 9 year old fit in to that?Socrates said:Unbelievably unpleasant argument from Stuart Hall's lawyer:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22459815
She seems to think dirty old men should be able to molest 13 year olds.
EDIT: I also note that she seems to think crimes that happened a long time ago don't matter, and their victims should go without justice. What a horrible woman.0 -
I don't think she's Stuart Hall's lawyer, she's just expressing a general opinion.Socrates said:Unbelievably unpleasant argument from Stuart Hall's lawyer:.
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Wales' most senior Conservative MP says councillors in Conwy should consider their positions after a series of costly issues.
Clwyd West MP and Welsh Secretary David Jones cited overspending on a bridge, legal battles over Colwyn Bay pier and a £125,00 grant handed to a conman.
He said councillors were "shrugging their shoulders" on the issues......
The MP said it was the latest in a series of "unfortunate incidents" at the council, including an overspend of about £1m on a new bridge at Maesdu in Llandudno, an overspend on the council's school transport service, and a grant of £125,000 paid to conman Chris O'Neill.
O'Neill has been jailed for three years after spending much of that cash on gambling and a boat.
Mr Jones said he found it "extraordinary" councillors never considered resigning.
"That's what would happen if this sort of thing happened at Westminster, and I can't see why it's not happening at Conwy," he said.
"Simply to shrug shoulders and say that's bad luck and move on is not acceptable."
Conwy council is run by a coalition of independent, Labour, Liberal Democrat and Plaid Cymru councillors.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-west-wales-22461684
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@DPJHodges: Isn't there something ironic about the fact Alex Salmond will go down in history as the man who finally killed off Scottish independence.0
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Twenty years ago the Durham coalfield that once boasted more than 200 deep shaft mines stopped mining coal for the last time. Easington was the last pit to close.
Two decades on, and coal has not ceased to be important. Much of it is now imported, the rest comes from opencast mining.
But one company has big plans to exploit the remaining north-east of England coal reserves.
Harry Bradbury is looking out to sea from the beach at Tynemouth in Northumberland. But it is not just the view he is taking in.
His company, the Newcastle-based Five Quarter, has been given licences by the government to drill for and extract gas from massive coal reserves under the sea and off the North East coast. In his mind's eye, he can see the vast potential beneath the waves.
"It's an unusual fact that despite the industrial revolution and everything that's happened since, 75% of British coal is still underground," he said.
"Under the North Sea there are vast deposits. We're talking about two billion tonnes of coal off the coast here. Now, to give you some measure of that, two billion tonnes has more energy in it than we've ever extracted from the totality of North Sea gas since we began."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-224321300 -
Dear god, the scottish tory surger thinks having a joke like Hodges on his side is a good thing
When will they ever learn?0 -
@tim - I meant general in the sense that it is about the general topic, not that it is generally held.
I do think she is absolutely right on one point, though:
Touching a 17-year-old’s breast, kissing a 13-year-old, or putting one’s hand up a 16-year-old’s skirt, are not remotely comparable to the horrors of the Ealing Vicarage assaults and gang rape, or the Fordingbridge gang rape and murders, both dating from 1986. Anyone suggesting otherwise has lost touch with reality.
There is a tendency to label offences of hugely different seriousness as 'paedophilia' or 'sex offences' and thereby to diminish the signficance of the very serious ones. At one point a few years ago the NSPCC were hysterically claiming that over 50% of children suffered 'abuse', using a definition so wide that it basically covered normal growing up. I don't think this is helpful.0 -
@RichardNabavi
Wasn't that Shelter who claimed that having to share a bedroom was child abuse or that if your bedroom wasn't large enough it was too?
We made many jokes it at the time over its absurdity.0 -
@Plato - That was another example.0
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Miss Plato, I recall that well.0
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@DPJHodges: Labour won't face the truth. Perhaps it's for the best > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/boqbq7m0
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The whole argument about many things nowadays is really the argument between the use of beauracracy, zero tolerance, targets, and statistics to sort everything out, against taking human nature and its fallibility into account and the use of context.0
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Is 'Living Marxism' today's obsessive Bingo word?0
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Australians don't have a great record in British politics.tim said:David Singleton @david_singleton
No 10 and CCHQ both reluctant to answer qs about Tory strategist Lynton Crosby. No 10 now say he doesn't have a desk at Downing St or a pass
See what happens, this is the second time Dave and George have appointed someone who didn't go to public school, always goes wrong.0 -
TheWatcher said:
Is 'Living Marxism' today's obsessive Bingo word?
Living Marxism.
" For anybody who needs reminding of how stupid ‘clever’ people can be, can I recommend Guido’s post on the Ralph Miliband lecture series? Each year the London School of Economics still holds an annual commemoration of the dead Marxist now best known of as the father of David and Ed. Much that has gone wrong with our universities can be learnt by briefly considering these events.
This year the lectures will include the blogger Laurie Penny talking about ‘Women, protest and the nature of female rebellion’. She will be doing this in LSE’s Sheikh Zayed Theatre. But best of all is to recall the 2010 lecture given by LSE alumnus Saif Gaddafi. People really should watch Professor David Held’s introduction. I had forgotten how funny it is.
Whilst Ghaddafi Junior grins and waves away at lackeys in the audience, Professor Held says by way of introduction:
‘Saif is committed to resolving contentious international and domestic issues through dialogue, debate and peaceful negotiations.’ "0 -
"Ed Miliband proclaiming “Three wasted years, another wasted chance.” For a moment I thought Ed was delivering a brutally honest assessment of his own leadership.".....Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: Labour won't face the truth. Perhaps it's for the best > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/boqbq7m
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Dan Hodges sums it upTheWatcher said:John Denham has seen the light, and the problem Labour face.
Meantime, tim posts pictures of piss stained album covers from his bedsit.
"The Labour movement isn’t facing reality because it can’t afford to face reality"
Have been trying to help lefties on here for months - but they are happy raging against the dying light from their sandy pillow.
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Ed Miliband proclaiming “Three wasted years "
I thought this was EdM's confession to dipsomania.0 -
David Helds "Models of Democracy" is the book that all students studying Humanities at Brighton Uni are taught fromMonikerDiCanio said:TheWatcher said:Is 'Living Marxism' today's obsessive Bingo word?
Living Marxism.
" For anybody who needs reminding of how stupid ‘clever’ people can be, can I recommend Guido’s post on the Ralph Miliband lecture series? Each year the London School of Economics still holds an annual commemoration of the dead Marxist now best known of as the father of David and Ed. Much that has gone wrong with our universities can be learnt by briefly considering these events.
This year the lectures will include the blogger Laurie Penny talking about ‘Women, protest and the nature of female rebellion’. She will be doing this in LSE’s Sheikh Zayed Theatre. But best of all is to recall the 2010 lecture given by LSE alumnus Saif Gaddafi. People really should watch Professor David Held’s introduction. I had forgotten how funny it is.
Whilst Ghaddafi Junior grins and waves away at lackeys in the audience, Professor Held says by way of introduction:
‘Saif is committed to resolving contentious international and domestic issues through dialogue, debate and peaceful negotiations.’ "
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...0
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@JohnRentoul: “(Not) a reactionary nostalgist in the republic of letters”: Another furiously aspiring speech from Michael Go... http://ind.pn/13DSNXw0
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@tim3% - Only 7 days ago since those real votes were cast. Lab 29, Con 26.
Poor thing, you've not really been at your best since then, have you? And those manufacturing figures this morning won't have lightened the mood. I'd like to feel your pain but even my compassion has its limits.0 -
Off-topic:
An award-winning GQ article by Chris Heath on how a mental breakdown becomes all the more tragic when you keep scores of wild animals, including big cats, in your back garden.
http://www.gq.com/news-politics/newsmakers/201203/terry-thompson-ohio-zoo-massacre-chris-heath-gq-february-2012
18 tigers, 17 lions, 8 bears, 3 cougars, 2 wolves, and more.
Tragic in every possible way.0 -
He said he wouldnt stand in any by election until after the Eurostim said:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE
Will Farage seek Peterborough seat? Three-way; MP StewartJackson majority <5,000. Immigration big issue. Jackson in spotlight over expenses.
Now that would be very very funny.</p>
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Maybe someone really saw him coming in 2005.tim said:Jesus, we know this guy is thick but still.
Jim Pickard @PickardJE 1m
Stewart Jackson: "The property is now valued at less than we purchased it for in 2005." In London? Wonder where it is? On a cliff?0 -
Ah fair enoughtim said:sam said:
He said he wouldnt stand in any by election until after the Eurostim said:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE
Will Farage seek Peterborough seat? Three-way; MP StewartJackson majority <5,000. Immigration big issue. Jackson in spotlight over expenses.
Now that would be very very funny.</p>
I think he's referring to the next GE.
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Pretty terrible poll for the Tories, but Labour under 40% must be concerning them, too?
As for the Lib-Dems - LOL!0 -
I quite like Charlie Crist, but this is a u-turn worthy of Mitt Romney. He announced on his Facebook page today he's supporting gay marriage, having previously backed a law to explicitly ban gay marriage in 2006:
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/charlie-crist-i-support-gay-marriage/21200050
