I’ve generally avoided the market on when Sir Keir Starmer will cease to be Labour leader because the year of the next general election is uncertain thanks to planned repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act and talk of Boris Johnson planning to call a 2023 election.
And I think he will likely form a Government.
But also agree that tying up money for an odds-on bet for years isn't sensible. This is where a betting exchange works so much better.
The only way that I could see him leaving is if the Labour numbers collapsed to something really bizarre - say 25% -consistently in the polls. And even then....
Johnson is vulnerable, and it will be a precipitous fall when it comes. Keir needs to put the boot in when he is down.
Labour is coming home!
Spain's world number one Rahm has tested positive for the second time in as many months.
Tokyo Olympics: Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm out of golf after testing positive for Covid-19 - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57959149
Although in all seriousness, i presume on Rahm case it is actually it never fully went away. Wasn't there some blokein the UK who kept testing positive for nearly a year?
Golf has been a shambles of a sport during COVID....the game is literally socially distance outdoor activity.
God I despise this country, sometimes. We Want Winners
I suspect if the boundaries remain the same this seat will long term trend away from labour. Labour did themselves no favours with candidates selection at the local elections. The two candidates in lanchester were woeful.
The country enjoyed our incredible Olympics prowess. So.... they change the methods that produced it? FFS!
No, i can understand in some respects there is a feedback loop, but there are some sports where the UK has no history in, no widespread interest and so its pretty pointless to fund and in things like athletics, its ultra ultra competitive, whete the whole world does it and there really isn't any point funding somebody who clearly doesn't have the attributes to crack top 10-15 in the world. Its harsh, but it really is pointless funding a somebody in the 5km if they aren't a genetic freak to start with, hard work and some better coaching isn't going to get you past a load of Africans with a genetic advantage and been running to school every day since birth.
Where the funding really gives UK advantage is skill events and or one with equipment. You can get your edge from a full optimized approach.
There are plenty of able Labour MPs , who are available, Benn, Kinnock, Cooper, Jarvis and plenty of others, plus people outside Parliament. Sadly after Corbyn there are also a raft of former quality Labour Politicians who are also outside the Party. And no I am not referring directly to Corbyn.
The key problem of why, for good or bad, we are lumbered with Starmer is the vague, but worrying prospect that he could be replaced by a moron like Burgon or RLB.
Take that, Olympics. First it was Covid-19, now someone in Camden, UK is refusing to watch you. Truly a cursed Games. HAHAHAHA
At the same time Team GB management were accused of using a ruthless approach even within the high prospect categories to weed out poor prospect older sportspeople and replace them with younger talent who were good for two or three cycles. That policy has also changed for this and the next cycle.
If we finish in the top 10 globally it's going to be a good performance IMO. A really hard dose of reality for the people pushing the agenda of prizes/funding for all but we've already fucked it for 2024. It will be 2028 before we get back into the global top 5.
It's just such a British thing to do. Take a magical formula, and fuck it all up. The same way we looked at our magnificent heritage of ancient town and city centres in the 1950s, and decided to demolish them all
Overall its as absolutely dumb and self defeating....its pointless funding basketball for the Olympics for instance, just because its more diverse, we ain't a hope or funding an athlete on the track in an event they clearly aren't top 10. Especially if it means taking away from things like sailing or rowing, which GB historically excel in.
JUST WIN MEDALS
The fact that certain body shapes and muscle distributions are required for success at the top level in various sports is documented. As are the reasons *why* this works.
UK sport used lottery funding to give top athletes a full "work up" - which, in a number of cases found that they were actually much better suited to another sport. Nearly no-one has tried all the sports - many ended up in their chosen sport by a complete accident.
(As an aside how come Jarvis can be a mayor and MP but Burnham can’t?)
Back then even a top 10 finish among countries let alone top 3 or 4 which we have the last 3 times was fantasy.
We have been spoiled in recent times. As others have said, expect a significant drop down the medal table, probably out of the top 10.
In any case, isn't it better to leave the analysis until after the games?. Let's see how we do first. It always surprises me how negative towards the teams supposed British/English patriots are.
Indeed I am more certain about Starmer than Boris
AND on what really matters and is terribly sad
Man, woman and boy die in Loch Lomond incident
Recent drownings in this hot weather has been a disaster with so many avoidable deaths
Yes Starmer will probably be LAB leader at the GE. He is probably the best they have got.
LAB to gain some seats maybe get up to 230. More if their position improves in Scotland.
New leader after GE. No idea who that will be.
Germany, INSA poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 27% (-2)
SPD-S&D: 17% (+0.5)
FDP-RE: 13% (+1)
AfD-ID: 11% (-0.5)
LINKE-LEFT: 7% (+1)
+/- vs. 16-19 Jul
Fieldwork: 19-23 July 2021
Sample size: 1,316 "
I see Fearsome Portents
Famously the british couple off the crusie ship had this problem. The Japanese wouldn't let them out until 3 running negative tests and they kept doing negative, positive, negative ..for several weeks.
Objectively, the event this year is much diminished for a GB audience by the absence of spectators, due to the pandemic, random withdrawals of competitors, due to the pandemic, the reduction in BBC coverage, due to broadcasting deals, the likely failure of TeamGB to be as successful, and the timezone in which the event is taking place.
Whereas, if you're disposed to be an enthusiast about events of this sort, then it's an immediate massive plus to have it occurring in your nation's capital city.
Still, all these pitiful losers are Taking The Knee, so that's fine. There's nothing so affirming for people from tough minority backgrounds as coming last, and doing it while you are on your knees
I think the next Leader will be Nandy or Rayner, or someone else elected after 2010.
I heard Tindall make an interesting point about England rugby world cup win. They asked him if he was nervous, given the final, biggest game of his life and he said, but we had beat them in the last 4 times we had played them and hardly lost with our first team on the field in years. There was nothing to be nervous about, we expected to win, because we were significantly better than everybody else and we had shown in game after game. It wasn't arrogance, it was just we had proved this was the case.
At the moment, there is Peaty in the swimming who is just miles better than the competition, but in many sports the UK just doesn't have the stand out freak and so the tiny margins can mean these things go either way e.g. in the PJ kicking, the lad got Silver but with 10s to go he was in the lead. Dina Asher Smith could win the 100m, but could easily come 5-6th.
Also the screws overlooked dope smoking in Brixton. Which was kinda humane. They'd walk into your smoke-filled cell, tut, then just walk out again
Booze, however, suffered zero tolerance. Because violence
This was long before the days of evil skunk, however
The kind of thunder that feels like the sky is cracking open
But yes it does feel more suburban. The lack of a Tube station is crucial. Hampstead is not much nearer the centre but it has the Tube AND the village feel, and the sense you can still walk down into Town. And of course the Heath is magnificent
The Tees Valley mayor also doesn't have responsibility for the police but that's because Darlington isn't the responsibility of Cleveland Police (thankfully)... South Yorkshire's mayor probably has a similar reason.
I think that Starmer will be in post at the GE, and will probably gain a modest number of seats, but probably not enough to form a government.
Extraordinary for a storm of that ferocity to travel from north-east to south-west - the normal passage is south to north for a storm coming off France or the south coast.
But just to prove I read the proposal, I have a purely practical point to make. It wouldn't necessarily work as stated: many modern papers and inks aren't permanent on that sort of timescale: you'd need to tell people to use acid-free paper and pigment inks and that would be an instant turnoff for many, who wouldn't know what you were on about never mind what to get hold of.
Isle of Dogs
Edgware Road (Paddington area)
Basically in my twenties the scruffier the better I enjoyed it!
260 seats is the worst I think he will do, which if true probably isn't enough to be PM but will mean his successor will be able to form a government with a much smaller swing. I think if he's lucky and the Lib Dems have a good night, 270+ would probably be enough to form a government and push through PR (which is frankly what I want at this point).
I also believe his one unique selling point is his appeal to Lib Dem voters, which is something few Labour leaders have done recently. We've seen now on two occasions, tactical voting.
The issue with Hampstead for us was having to double what we spent in Fortis Green to get a similarly sized place. It was a consideration and we could afford to do it but ultimately we decided it wasn't worth the extra and it's probably somewhere we can revisit 10 years from now if we really wanted to.
I cannot believe Starmer will be removed involuntarily. Leaving aside the lack of an obvious challenger, Labour is just so bad at regicide it’s actually embarrassing.
Ill health or a scandal might be different, but he looks pretty fit and while his time as DPP was hardly an unqualified success after Jennifer Arcuri it’s hard to see what would bring any politician down.
Then was basically shoved back to his original sport..... And not by the rowing coaches.