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BoJo says is won’t happen Punters make it a 72% further restrictions will come in this year – politi

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 22 in General
imageBoJo says is won’t happen Punters make it a 72% further restrictions will come in this year – politicalbetting.com

One of the more interesting betting markets at the moment is the above from Smarkets on whether there is going to be any reintroduction of COVID restrictions.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    edited July 22
    Only if we get a flesh eating variant will restrictions come back.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    So basically this bet is on what the wonky shopping trolley will do next?

    God alone knows...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,629
    stodge said:

    As we know, some cultures are much more gender segregated

    And that's a good thing in your opinion?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    Second like the Twatter who claimed the UK had a vaccine supply problem;

    Oh dear. Politics.
    Two points.
    - The UK has enough vaccine to give two mRNA doses with 8 week gap to every adult who wants them. Do NOT hesitate to get jabbed on supply grounds.
    - JCVI advice on dosage gaps and teenagers is being given on scientific grounds not political ones.


    https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1418303849731956736?s=20
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    edited July 22
    FPT - On railways, you can reopen anything if you're prepared to pay and get an Act of Parliament.

    However, the planning process and public inquiry aspects become more difficult and protracted once you have to start compulsorily purchasing property for demolition, which is why just a few house on the old trackbed can block a minor line. My local line - Alton to Winchester - is probably permanently blocked beyond Alresford by only 11 or 12 houses and some school playing fields but that's really because of its business case.

    This doesn't apply for major lines with political will, like the Waverley Line or HS2, because the politicians view it as strategic and are willing to invest.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    Its too pissing hot.....
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    My several attempts to parse the title of the header piece to extract sense from it have failed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    NEW: Italy will ban unvaccinated people from some public places, including indoor restaurants, gyms, cinemas, museums, and sporting events, unless they are tested for coronavirus
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    I don't have an Smarkets account, but what do they define as new legal restrictions for the purpose of this bet?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    48s
    Friday’s INDEPENDENT Digital: “Covid infections in young adults hit record” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    (includes news that Cabinet office is working on plan for social distancing to be reintroduced in August).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592

    Its too pissing hot.....

    It is so hot two Hobbits just walked into my hotel room and threw a ring in it.
    Quite pleasant sitting in my hammock in the garden, watching the bats catch insects.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 902

    Only if we get a flesh eating variant will restrictions come back.

    If the Government starts to fret seriously about the hospitals falling over then they'll probably start to back pedal.

    On the one hand, the overall hospital patient total doesn't appear to be climbing as rapidly as in the past, and there are some tentative signals from the data which might suggest to the layman such as I that the Covid situation won't get too out of control.

    On the other hand, there are all the other nasties that have been suppressed by nearly 18 months of restrictions and several lockdown cycles. A lot of flu, and cases of other bugs like RSV that the pandemic has introduced to us, could compound Covid and get hospitals screaming and the medics demanding the Government locks people back up again.

    A probability of no curbs coming back as high as 1 in 4 seems a tad on the optimistic side.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859

    Only if we get a flesh eating variant will restrictions come back.

    Yes, I think now that we're out the government would rather give everyone 8 doses of vaccines than lockdown again.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733

    Only if we get a flesh eating variant will restrictions come back.

    That might depend on how one defines a flesh eating variant.

    I have been surprised by how chipper the fanbois are this evening. Perhaps Bozza has won the war on Covid after all.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638
    A market with an eye watering £2850 traded on it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859

    Second like the Twatter who claimed the UK had a vaccine supply problem;

    Oh dear. Politics.
    Two points.
    - The UK has enough vaccine to give two mRNA doses with 8 week gap to every adult who wants them. Do NOT hesitate to get jabbed on supply grounds.
    - JCVI advice on dosage gaps and teenagers is being given on scientific grounds not political ones.


    https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1418303849731956736?s=20

    Yes, aiui the country has got 8m Moderna doses sitting around doing not very much with only around 1.5m second doses needed from them right now. We could easily do another 3-4m first doses in the next 10 days if we had the demand.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592

    Only if we get a flesh eating variant will restrictions come back.

    That might depend on how one defines a flesh eating variant.

    I have been surprised by how chipper the fanbois are this evening. Perhaps Bozza has won the war on Covid after all.
    I think we all know that there are several chapters left to go in this story.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    MaxPB said:

    Only if we get a flesh eating variant will restrictions come back.

    Yes, I think now that we're out the government would rather give everyone 8 doses of vaccines than lockdown again.
    Not 12 - 17 year olds though. JCVI needs sacking tbh - the report is a nonsense.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,927

    stodge said:

    As we know, some cultures are much more gender segregated

    And that's a good thing in your opinion?
    No it’s not

    But there’s a time and place for every battle

    Vaccination is more important right now than a stand against gender segregation
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    MaxPB said:

    Second like the Twatter who claimed the UK had a vaccine supply problem;

    Oh dear. Politics.
    Two points.
    - The UK has enough vaccine to give two mRNA doses with 8 week gap to every adult who wants them. Do NOT hesitate to get jabbed on supply grounds.
    - JCVI advice on dosage gaps and teenagers is being given on scientific grounds not political ones.


    https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1418303849731956736?s=20

    Yes, aiui the country has got 8m Moderna doses sitting around doing not very much with only around 1.5m second doses needed from them right now. We could easily do another 3-4m first doses in the next 10 days if we had the demand.
    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp
    ·
    29m

    Turns out we have enough moderna for there to be no supply issues for remaining adults. Thanks
    @jonworth for clarifying from
    @PaulMainwood
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,039

    Only if we get a flesh eating variant will restrictions come back.

    On the plus side, Boris might lose some weight again.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    Would vaxports for nightclubs count as a new restriction?

    If so the odds in the market seems fair, but if it's not then the odds for No seems value.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    MaxPB said:

    Second like the Twatter who claimed the UK had a vaccine supply problem;

    Oh dear. Politics.
    Two points.
    - The UK has enough vaccine to give two mRNA doses with 8 week gap to every adult who wants them. Do NOT hesitate to get jabbed on supply grounds.
    - JCVI advice on dosage gaps and teenagers is being given on scientific grounds not political ones.


    https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1418303849731956736?s=20

    Yes, aiui the country has got 8m Moderna doses sitting around doing not very much with only around 1.5m second doses needed from them right now. We could easily do another 3-4m first doses in the next 10 days if we had the demand.
    It was started by Jon Worth (who is usually reasonably sensible) but one gets the feeling is still smarting from the EU’s earlier slow roll out, suggesting the UK had a supply problem and the JCVI were taking decisions based on supply not medicine - got put back in his box pretty sharpish.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 902

    Only if we get a flesh eating variant will restrictions come back.

    That might depend on how one defines a flesh eating variant.

    I have been surprised by how chipper the fanbois are this evening. Perhaps Bozza has won the war on Covid after all.
    We are only going to get away without fresh rounds of restrictions and yet more rules if the hospitals don't fold under the pressure, or seem to be in imminent danger of so doing. This is far from a foregone conclusion.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    I do wonder why we have to wait until September to get a booster programme going. If that is what is needed...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,808

    Second like the Twatter who claimed the UK had a vaccine supply problem;

    Oh dear. Politics.
    Two points.
    - The UK has enough vaccine to give two mRNA doses with 8 week gap to every adult who wants them. Do NOT hesitate to get jabbed on supply grounds.
    - JCVI advice on dosage gaps and teenagers is being given on scientific grounds not political ones.


    https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1418303849731956736?s=20

    There's a bit of a pile on from vax-deniers and people who think the Govt here has been forceful.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    Germany just aren't testing anyone, are they?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859

    MaxPB said:

    Second like the Twatter who claimed the UK had a vaccine supply problem;

    Oh dear. Politics.
    Two points.
    - The UK has enough vaccine to give two mRNA doses with 8 week gap to every adult who wants them. Do NOT hesitate to get jabbed on supply grounds.
    - JCVI advice on dosage gaps and teenagers is being given on scientific grounds not political ones.


    https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1418303849731956736?s=20

    Yes, aiui the country has got 8m Moderna doses sitting around doing not very much with only around 1.5m second doses needed from them right now. We could easily do another 3-4m first doses in the next 10 days if we had the demand.
    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp
    ·
    29m

    Turns out we have enough moderna for there to be no supply issues for remaining adults. Thanks
    @jonworth for clarifying from
    @PaulMainwood
    The Moderna order is almost completely delivered with only one or two weeks left which is another 2m or so doses to add to the stockpile plus what we're getting from Pfizer as the 60m order ramps up to full capacity.

    The idea of a supply crunch is ridiculous. We're simply demand limited, hence the government pushing vaccine passports to get another 4m under 40s vaxxed.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859
    alex_ said:

    Germany just aren't testing anyone, are they?

    They are, a lot of their tests just don't get registered.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    Nigelb said:

    Only if we get a flesh eating variant will restrictions come back.

    On the plus side, Boris might lose some weight again.
    Ah the old amputation weight loss plan. I was hoping to get a book out of it.

    "How to lose a stone in a day, the Dr Foxy way..."
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    Germany just aren't testing anyone, are they?

    They are, a lot of their tests just don't get registered.
    Their tests, or their positive results?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,808
    edited July 22

    MaxPB said:

    Second like the Twatter who claimed the UK had a vaccine supply problem;

    Oh dear. Politics.
    Two points.
    - The UK has enough vaccine to give two mRNA doses with 8 week gap to every adult who wants them. Do NOT hesitate to get jabbed on supply grounds.
    - JCVI advice on dosage gaps and teenagers is being given on scientific grounds not political ones.


    https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1418303849731956736?s=20

    Yes, aiui the country has got 8m Moderna doses sitting around doing not very much with only around 1.5m second doses needed from them right now. We could easily do another 3-4m first doses in the next 10 days if we had the demand.
    It was started by Jon Worth (who is usually reasonably sensible) but one gets the feeling is still smarting from the EU’s earlier slow roll out, suggesting the UK had a supply problem and the JCVI were taking decisions based on supply not medicine - got put back in his box pretty sharpish.
    Jon did some superb work on UK vaccine supply back in the spring, and then pulled out of COVID Twitter in despair to do some real work on Night Trains in the EU. He is probably regretting going back in :smile: .

    I think the current stuff will all turn around within 2 weeks, but if we are doing kids is either before school starts or wham! in the first weeks of term.

    Whether my current prediction will be a accurate as the last one where I forecast 40,000 cases and it was 39,950 on that date (polishes nails on shirtfront), I don't know.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,808
    edited July 22
    ..
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Only if we get a flesh eating variant will restrictions come back.

    On the plus side, Boris might lose some weight again.
    Ah the old amputation weight loss plan. I was hoping to get a book out of it.

    "How to lose a stone in a day, the Dr Foxy way..."
    Sounds like an 'armless diet!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Second like the Twatter who claimed the UK had a vaccine supply problem;

    Oh dear. Politics.
    Two points.
    - The UK has enough vaccine to give two mRNA doses with 8 week gap to every adult who wants them. Do NOT hesitate to get jabbed on supply grounds.
    - JCVI advice on dosage gaps and teenagers is being given on scientific grounds not political ones.


    https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1418303849731956736?s=20

    Yes, aiui the country has got 8m Moderna doses sitting around doing not very much with only around 1.5m second doses needed from them right now. We could easily do another 3-4m first doses in the next 10 days if we had the demand.
    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp
    ·
    29m

    Turns out we have enough moderna for there to be no supply issues for remaining adults. Thanks
    @jonworth for clarifying from
    @PaulMainwood
    The Moderna order is almost completely delivered with only one or two weeks left which is another 2m or so doses to add to the stockpile plus what we're getting from Pfizer as the 60m order ramps up to full capacity.

    The idea of a supply crunch is ridiculous. We're simply demand limited, hence the government pushing vaccine passports to get another 4m under 40s vaxxed.
    We're demand and dictat limited !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    edited July 22
    Sky News alternative data moron....he is even worse than Ed Conway with the Fake news.

    "Shows no sign of slowing down"...."as the epidemic picks up speed"
    https://youtu.be/r_dMk0x_k3
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,332
    Lab hold in Rhondda.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Only if we get a flesh eating variant will restrictions come back.

    On the plus side, Boris might lose some weight again.
    Ah the old amputation weight loss plan. I was hoping to get a book out of it.

    "How to lose a stone in a day, the Dr Foxy way..."
    Sounds like an 'armless diet!
    Sounds like a drinking problem, ending up legless.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    Was the cricket any good tonight? I missed it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    edited July 22
    Andy_JS said:

    Was the cricket any good tonight? I missed it.

    Not really.... pitch was tricky so very limited big hitting and all the big names really failed to tee off.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 732

    Its too pissing hot.....

    It is so hot two Hobbits just walked into my hotel room and threw a ring in it.
    Pineapple ring?
    From a pizza?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,629

    Only if we get a flesh eating variant will restrictions come back.

    "Hey, it's the Party Dude!"
  • eekeek Posts: 15,817

    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    48s
    Friday’s INDEPENDENT Digital: “Covid infections in young adults hit record” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    (includes news that Cabinet office is working on plan for social distancing to be reintroduced in August).

    Planning for possible contingencies makes perfect sense and really isn't mess - best to ware a few days and prepare at leisure than do it in a mad panic were the need to occur.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    BBC News - 'Serious' crash as vehicle hits number of people in Pontyclun
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57934076
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    Filthy liar! German TV reporter is fired after being caught smearing herself in mud before filming report saying she helped the clear-up efforts in flood-devastated town

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9815591/German-TV-reporter-fired-caught-smearing-mud-filming.html

    Did the far more serious German FT Fake newer ever get the sack?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    BigRich said:

    Oh...


    Martin Juhl
    @MartinJuhl2
    The good & the bad news

    Rightwards arrowBad news first: early data from Israel indicates that vaccine efficacy in preventing infection & symptomatic disease (mainly Pfizer-BioNTech) goes from 75-79% to 16% within 4 months against the Delta variant

    I'm a bit sceptical of that, if it was only 16% effective after 4 months, then I would have thought Israel would be much more badly affected than it is now, but sure it will drop a bit, perhaps the longer waiting between does that the UK has done will, tern out to be better?
    Israel's vaccination campaign basically ended in late March. So that means that almost everyone in Israel has been double dosed for at least four months.

    Therefore... the Israeli people only have a 16% effective vaccine against Delta? If that were the case, then case numbers would be absolutely rocketing. And that's not really happening. In fact, like in the UK and the Netherlands, case numbers are slowing sharply - with the rolling seven day average growth down to pretty low levels now.

    So, not clear how the numbers were calculated.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,539
    Breaking: Clarkson’s Farm is getting a second series
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Second like the Twatter who claimed the UK had a vaccine supply problem;

    Oh dear. Politics.
    Two points.
    - The UK has enough vaccine to give two mRNA doses with 8 week gap to every adult who wants them. Do NOT hesitate to get jabbed on supply grounds.
    - JCVI advice on dosage gaps and teenagers is being given on scientific grounds not political ones.


    https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1418303849731956736?s=20

    Yes, aiui the country has got 8m Moderna doses sitting around doing not very much with only around 1.5m second doses needed from them right now. We could easily do another 3-4m first doses in the next 10 days if we had the demand.
    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp
    ·
    29m

    Turns out we have enough moderna for there to be no supply issues for remaining adults. Thanks
    @jonworth for clarifying from
    @PaulMainwood
    The Moderna order is almost completely delivered with only one or two weeks left which is another 2m or so doses to add to the stockpile plus what we're getting from Pfizer as the 60m order ramps up to full capacity.

    The idea of a supply crunch is ridiculous. We're simply demand limited, hence the government pushing vaccine passports to get another 4m under 40s vaxxed.
    Demand is dipping everywhere in the developed world, while supply continues to ramp up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: Clarkson’s Farm is getting a second series

    No offence, but its not exactly breaking news....it was confirmed days ago.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    edited July 22
    16% effective in Israel, has somebody done a inverse Patrick Vallance? 60% i could believe vs PHE of 80%, perhaps with the difference being 12 week dosage / some wanning of protection.

    16%....that would mean the PHE numbers were miles out and surely we would be seeing a hell of a lot more than 15% out UK cases being double vaxxed and way more than 50k cases by now (with them highly concentrated among the young).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    I think there won't be another lockdown whatever happens.
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 282
    Why are we not vaccinating teenagers to a serious degree for Covid? If the reason is that we think that it is wrong to do so for the benefit of adults then why do not we not vaccinate against chicken pox? I would like my young children to be jabbed against varicella but the NHS says not, for the benefit of adults according to their convuluted reasoning.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,817
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592

    Why are we not vaccinating teenagers to a serious degree for Covid? If the reason is that we think that it is wrong to do so for the benefit of adults then why do not we not vaccinate against chicken pox? I would like my young children to be jabbed against varicella but the NHS says not, for the benefit of adults according to their convuluted reasoning.

    We do vaccinate against rubella and mumps to protect adults. HpV to an extent too.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    edited July 22
    eek said:
    160 million....WTF.....
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,420
    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    Oh...


    Martin Juhl
    @MartinJuhl2
    The good & the bad news

    Rightwards arrowBad news first: early data from Israel indicates that vaccine efficacy in preventing infection & symptomatic disease (mainly Pfizer-BioNTech) goes from 75-79% to 16% within 4 months against the Delta variant

    I'm a bit sceptical of that, if it was only 16% effective after 4 months, then I would have thought Israel would be much more badly affected than it is now, but sure it will drop a bit, perhaps the longer waiting between does that the UK has done will, tern out to be better?
    Israel's vaccination campaign basically ended in late March. So that means that almost everyone in Israel has been double dosed for at least four months.

    Therefore... the Israeli people only have a 16% effective vaccine against Delta? If that were the case, then case numbers would be absolutely rocketing. And that's not really happening. In fact, like in the UK and the Netherlands, case numbers are slowing sharply - with the rolling seven day average growth down to pretty low levels now.

    So, not clear how the numbers were calculated.
    Israel's does have an 83% week on week incres, and it does not appear to be slowing:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

    That sead in a nation with lots of people who chose not to take the vaccine, and with the known transmutability of the Delta variant, that still implies to me a much better than 16% effectiveness of the Vaccines I suspect somebody has done a maths error somewhere.
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 282
    Foxy said:

    Why are we not vaccinating teenagers to a serious degree for Covid? If the reason is that we think that it is wrong to do so for the benefit of adults then why do not we not vaccinate against chicken pox? I would like my young children to be jabbed against varicella but the NHS says not, for the benefit of adults according to their convuluted reasoning.

    We do vaccinate against rubella and mumps to protect adults. HpV to an extent too.
    Exactly.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,817

    eek said:
    160 million....WTF.....
    Hey if someone is willing to pay for your expensive stadium just thank them
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    eek said:
    LOL at "To a rival team"!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    "Will Covid and wokeness kill the Olympic spirit?
    Let’s hope the Tokyo Games can rise above all the miserabilism
    Mick Hume"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/07/22/will-covid-and-wokeness-kill-the-olympic-spirit/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    Andy_JS said:

    "Will Covid and wokeness kill the Olympic spirit?
    Let’s hope the Tokyo Games can rise above all the miserabilism
    Mick Hume"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/07/22/will-covid-and-wokeness-kill-the-olympic-spirit/

    The boss of Unilever has insisted the consumer goods behemoth is not "woke", as he sought to distance it from a decision by its Ben & Jerry's brand to stop selling ice cream in occupied Palestinian territories.

    Alan Jope rejected the label despite saying the Marmite, Domestos and Magnum owner is committed to campaigning for "universal human truths" such as social justice and refugee rights.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/07/22/not-woke-says-unilever-boss/

    Can't you just sell me stuff to eat?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    Andy_JS said:

    "Will Covid and wokeness kill the Olympic spirit?
    Let’s hope the Tokyo Games can rise above all the miserabilism
    Mick Hume"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/07/22/will-covid-and-wokeness-kill-the-olympic-spirit/

    I think we are going to see lots of political statements by athletes.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    Andy_JS said:

    "Will Covid and wokeness kill the Olympic spirit?
    Let’s hope the Tokyo Games can rise above all the miserabilism
    Mick Hume"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/07/22/will-covid-and-wokeness-kill-the-olympic-spirit/

    That's pretty thin gruel.
    This Olympics will fail due to lack of spectators and athletes missing due to Covid. It also won't spark here because of the really inconvenient time zone.
    Or it may be regarded as a relative success given the aforementioned.
    Wokeness won't feature in the shakeout. Unless the government decides to go in spikes up on the GB team. But they may have learned their lesson.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    BigRich said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    Oh...


    Martin Juhl
    @MartinJuhl2
    The good & the bad news

    Rightwards arrowBad news first: early data from Israel indicates that vaccine efficacy in preventing infection & symptomatic disease (mainly Pfizer-BioNTech) goes from 75-79% to 16% within 4 months against the Delta variant

    I'm a bit sceptical of that, if it was only 16% effective after 4 months, then I would have thought Israel would be much more badly affected than it is now, but sure it will drop a bit, perhaps the longer waiting between does that the UK has done will, tern out to be better?
    Israel's vaccination campaign basically ended in late March. So that means that almost everyone in Israel has been double dosed for at least four months.

    Therefore... the Israeli people only have a 16% effective vaccine against Delta? If that were the case, then case numbers would be absolutely rocketing. And that's not really happening. In fact, like in the UK and the Netherlands, case numbers are slowing sharply - with the rolling seven day average growth down to pretty low levels now.

    So, not clear how the numbers were calculated.
    Israel's does have an 83% week on week incres, and it does not appear to be slowing:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

    That sead in a nation with lots of people who chose not to take the vaccine, and with the known transmutability of the Delta variant, that still implies to me a much better than 16% effectiveness of the Vaccines I suspect somebody has done a maths error somewhere.
    The World in Data numbers have the 7 day average cases at just over 1,000 up about 20% in the last week.
  • ManciniMancini Posts: 9

    eek said:
    160 million....WTF.....
    City have barely paid over 60m on previous signings. Kane probably only ‘worth’ 100m but think most football fans would be excited to see how he fits in under Pep. I imagine he’ll continue to drop deep as he did last season.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826

    eek said:
    160 million....WTF.....
    Footballers will be able to afford to be astronauts soon at this rate.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,566
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Second like the Twatter who claimed the UK had a vaccine supply problem;

    Oh dear. Politics.
    Two points.
    - The UK has enough vaccine to give two mRNA doses with 8 week gap to every adult who wants them. Do NOT hesitate to get jabbed on supply grounds.
    - JCVI advice on dosage gaps and teenagers is being given on scientific grounds not political ones.


    https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1418303849731956736?s=20

    Yes, aiui the country has got 8m Moderna doses sitting around doing not very much with only around 1.5m second doses needed from them right now. We could easily do another 3-4m first doses in the next 10 days if we had the demand.
    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp
    ·
    29m

    Turns out we have enough moderna for there to be no supply issues for remaining adults. Thanks
    @jonworth for clarifying from
    @PaulMainwood
    The Moderna order is almost completely delivered with only one or two weeks left which is another 2m or so doses to add to the stockpile plus what we're getting from Pfizer as the 60m order ramps up to full capacity.

    The idea of a supply crunch is ridiculous. We're simply demand limited, hence the government pushing vaccine passports to get another 4m under 40s vaxxed.
    Demand is dipping everywhere in the developed world, while supply continues to ramp up.
    Surely now is the time to start that push for vaccinating poorer countries. If we can't use the vaccines we already have why the hell are we not packing them off to Africa to help there?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    I think this is a ward in Claudia Webbe's constituency.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Humberstone and Hamilton (Leicester), council by-election result:

    CON: 44.7% (+18.4)
    LAB: 33.2% (-15.6)
    LDEM: 11.0% (+1.2)
    GRN: 8.0% (-7.1)
    FBM: 1.6% (+1.6)
    REFUK: 1.6% (+1.6

    Conservative GAIN from Labour."

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418346714000470017
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    If the government scientists are serious about preventing premature deaths, let them ban junk food and pay for every adult in the country to go on a three-week cookery course.

    Lockdowns were a important emergency measure in the chaos of the early pandemic. They cannot be used as a comfort blanket forever.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    Andy_JS said:

    I think this is a ward in Claudia Webbe's constituency.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Humberstone and Hamilton (Leicester), council by-election result:

    CON: 44.7% (+18.4)
    LAB: 33.2% (-15.6)
    LDEM: 11.0% (+1.2)
    GRN: 8.0% (-7.1)
    FBM: 1.6% (+1.6)
    REFUK: 1.6% (+1.6

    Conservative GAIN from Labour."

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418346714000470017

    Midlands continue to adore Boris and abhor Labour.
    Soon a tome will be written. The Strange Death of Labour Midlands.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,332
    Con holds in Thanet and Dover
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,332
    Green gain in North Somerset
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    edited July 22
    slade said:

    Con holds in Thanet and Dover

    Swings to Green and Lab from Tory and LD in Dover.
    Swing to Tories from Women's Equality Party in Thanet.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    edited July 22
    Actually, there are some pretty dramatic results around the nation. Huge Green vote in Somerset. 65%. What was a safe LD ward with Labour a distant second, becomes an ultra safe Green seat with Tories a long way next (?).
    Swing to Labour and 81% of the vote in South Wales.
    Labour and the Tories going forward in Wirral. Green vote halved. 11% UKIP vote going no discernible place.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think this is a ward in Claudia Webbe's constituency.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Humberstone and Hamilton (Leicester), council by-election result:

    CON: 44.7% (+18.4)
    LAB: 33.2% (-15.6)
    LDEM: 11.0% (+1.2)
    GRN: 8.0% (-7.1)
    FBM: 1.6% (+1.6)
    REFUK: 1.6% (+1.6

    Conservative GAIN from Labour."

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418346714000470017

    Midlands continue to adore Boris and abhor Labour.
    Soon a tome will be written. The Strange Death of Labour Midlands.
    This ward has a majority of Asian and Black voters I think, so it may not be due to the usual explanations.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    edited July 23
    BREAKING: Florida reports 12,647 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since January, and 86 new deaths

    NEW: Los Angeles County reports 2,767 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since February 18

    Mexico reports 16,244 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since January, and 419 new deaths

    Cuba reports 7,745 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record, and 65 new deaths
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287
    Ministers plan for new restrictions within weeks as Covid rates in young adults hit record level

    All forms of modelling carried out by the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) point to a significant rise in hospitalisations from the end of summer, The Independent has been told. In the worst-case scenario, this could amount to 2,000 hospital admissions a day by mid-August.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-restrictions-cases-deaths-latest-uk-b1888037.html?amp
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    BREAKING: U.S. reports 64,866 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April, as hospitalizations continue to rise
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,914
    MattW said:



    The last number I saw was Oz committed to 9, at a programme cost of about £20 billion.

    Being built over there as they want the capability but a big chunk of kit and all the support / development services from here.

    The Australian T26s (Hunter class) have different radar (CEAFAR vs Artisan), different combat control system (Aegis/Saab 9LV vs BAE Artifact) and a different weapons fit. They do both have the same (German) CODLOG propulsion system but the Hunters have had bits of it Australianised. Same Anglo-French sonar (2087) though. The Hunter and the Canadian CSC are much closer to each other being Type 41 VLS/Aegis systems than they are to the British T26.

    In the overall scheme there are relatively few "support/development services" for the UK in either the Hunter or the CSC. They have bought the rights to the design which are now heavily modified for their needs and preferences. That's it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    Thailand reports 14,575 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record, and 114 new deaths
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,737
    French presidential elections next year. The Times puts up Valérie Pécresse, 18/1 generally though 33/1 at Betway. I'm not risking hard cash on a candidate who is not even quoted in the "final two" markets. Fun fact: Betway sponsors West Ham.

    The head of Paris’s regional council declared herself a presidential candidate yesterday, laying down a challenge to Xavier Bertrand, the frontrunner in the race for the conservative nomination at elections next April.

    Having been re-elected last month to a second regional term, Valérie Pécresse, 54, promised to “restore French pride” as a “free woman” who would impose social order but promote liberal, pro-business and green policies with a “feminist social touch”.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/valerie-pecresse-adds-feminist-touch-to-french-presidential-elections-8zq07bvv2 (£££)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,737
    Teachers will be interested in the Daily Star's front page with its "missing" poster for Gavin Williamson but it does not quite hit the spot for me.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-57937492
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    4am and its still too bloody hot......
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    Once Delta's out there, it is very hard to shut down. It's increased transmissibility makes the Island Fortress model much harder to successfully execute. A (vaccinated) New Zealand aircrew member will end up catching it, and then before you know it, there are 100 cases in Auckland and another 8 in Christchurch, and that ain't getting back in the box.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    BBC and Sky under fire over 'unreadable' on-screen Hundred graphics

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/07/22/bbc-sky-fire-unreadable-on-screen-hundred-graphics/

    They are bloody awful....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,737
    Mancini said:

    eek said:
    160 million....WTF.....
    City have barely paid over 60m on previous signings. Kane probably only ‘worth’ 100m but think most football fans would be excited to see how he fits in under Pep. I imagine he’ll continue to drop deep as he did last season.
    Most goals and most assists last season, 27 years old. I'm not sure whether to read the Sun's story as a leak or a wishlist. £400,000 a week would put him above Kevin de Bruyne's £385,000.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    rcs1000 said:

    Once Delta's out there, it is very hard to shut down. It's increased transmissibility makes the Island Fortress model much harder to successfully execute. A (vaccinated) New Zealand aircrew member will end up catching it, and then before you know it, there are 100 cases in Auckland and another 8 in Christchurch, and that ain't getting back in the box.
    Its a good job they are vaccinating their population quickly....checks internet....Fully Vaxxed 13%.....Twinky Winky says UH OH....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    edited July 23
    This is a shot of official slide where the 16% vaccinated effectiveness in Israel came from...

    https://twitter.com/LucyStats/status/1418370036918624256?s=20

    There is something very off with that figure (and the 44%) compared to the rest. The tweet gives a reason as because it was the most vulnerable, but all the other stuff looks pretty much in line with the PHE stats, so not so sure. Perhaps it is sample size issue.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,209
    edited July 23

    FPT - On railways, you can reopen anything if you're prepared to pay and get an Act of Parliament.

    However, the planning process and public inquiry aspects become more difficult and protracted once you have to start compulsorily purchasing property for demolition, which is why just a few house on the old trackbed can block a minor line. My local line - Alton to Winchester - is probably permanently blocked beyond Alresford by only 11 or 12 houses and some school playing fields but that's really because of its business case.

    This doesn't apply for major lines with political will, like the Waverley Line or HS2, because the politicians view it as strategic and are willing to invest.

    The central section of the EWR is an interesting one for this. They want to reopen the line between Bedford and Cambridge - except it will be going nowhere near where the old line was. So it is a reopening of a capability, albeit on a new line.

    Instead, it'll probably be taking a more northerly route near my village.

    There are two alternatives from there to Cambridge; a southerly route and a northerly route. The southerly route is preferred, but has people in the villages up in arms, and there is a well-organised campaign to get a northerly route chosen. A campaign group have basically 'designed' this northern route by drawing on a map in crayon, and it's been interesting to see how they've adapted it as I, and others, have highlighted its issues.

    In response, people in villages to the northeast are organising, but their campaign is much more lacklustre.

    It'll be interesting to see which way it goes; my own view is that the northern route is unsustainable - especially if it involves building a chord on the meadows in Cambridge. There's a whole host of other nimbys to fight right there. My fear is that the opposition will be so strong that the entire scheme gets dropped.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    edited July 23

    This is a shot of official slide where the 16% vaccinated effectiveness in Israel came from...

    https://twitter.com/LucyStats/status/1418370036918624256?s=20

    There is something very off with that figure (and the 44%) compared to the rest. The tweet gives a reason as because it was the most vulnerable, but all the other stuff looks pretty much in line with the PHE stats, so not so sure. Perhaps it is sample size issue.

    If it was only 16% effective among the old and vulnerable, we would have mass outbreaks in care homes left, right and centre again by now.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,722

    This is a shot of official slide where the 16% vaccinated effectiveness in Israel came from...

    https://twitter.com/LucyStats/status/1418370036918624256?s=20

    There is something very off with that figure (and the 44%) compared to the rest. The tweet gives a reason as because it was the most vulnerable, but all the other stuff looks pretty much in line with the PHE stats, so not so sure. Perhaps it is sample size issue.

    If it was only 16% effective among the old and vulnerable, we would have mass outbreaks in care homes left, right and centre again by now.
    And it is inconsistent with the US figure of 99% of recent deaths from COVID being amongst the unvaccinated. If it were that ineffective, the percentage of fully vaccinated dying would be much higher.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    edited July 23
    A longer gap between first and second doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid vaccine makes the body's immune system produce more infection-fighting antibodies, UK researchers have found.

    Experts say the findings support the UK's decision on extending dosing intervals from the initial recommendation of three weeks. An eight-week gap seems to be the sweet spot for tackling the Delta variant.

    - both short and long dosing intervals of the Pfizer vaccine generated strong immune responses overall

    - a three-week schedule generated fewer of the neutralising antibodies that can bind the virus and stop it infecting cells than a 10-week interval

    - while antibody levels dipped after the first dose, levels of T-cells - a different type of immune cell - remained high

    - the longer schedule led to fewer T-cells overall but a higher proportion of a specific type or subset, called helper T-cells, which according to the researchers, supports immune memory

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57929953
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,162
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    Germany just aren't testing anyone, are they?

    They are, a lot of their tests just don't get registered.
    Their tests, or their positive results?
    The antigen tests aren't counted nationally at all. If you get a positive antigen test you have to have a PCR test. The PCR tests are registered nationally - at least they should be, although it may be that some PCR tests don't get reported.
    You can find some official info on PCR testing here:
    https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-07-22.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

    Which shows numbers of PCR tests have fallen a lot, presumably due to the summer holidays.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,737
    edited July 23
    The fag end of a night shift, vaguely hoping the morning team will arrive early.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760

    Only if we get a flesh eating variant will restrictions come back.

    Wishful thinking.

    I'm near-certain restrictions will be re-imposed this autumn. Everyone I know thinks the same.

    Enjoy this easing whilst you can.
This discussion has been closed.