"New Zealand is retreating from the world. 91% of locals do not expect life to return to normal, even once they are vaccinated. Jacinda Ardern: “our borders are likely to change quite permanently as a result of Covid-19.”"
I don't know what your problem is with her but last September she won an overwhelming re-election and the centre-right National Party was smashed recording its second worst ever election result.
New Zealand has a lot of advantages the UK doesn't have - its remoteness primarily. Closing the borders (something many think we should have done but the Government refused to do) has meant the coronavirus has, in human terms, not had a huge impact.
I don't know what your problem is with Boris but he won an overwhelming election in 1919 and the left-wing Labour party was smashed......
"New Zealand is retreating from the world. 91% of locals do not expect life to return to normal, even once they are vaccinated. Jacinda Ardern: “our borders are likely to change quite permanently as a result of Covid-19.”"
I don't know what your problem is with her but last September she won an overwhelming re-election and the centre-right National Party was smashed recording its second worst ever election result.
New Zealand has a lot of advantages the UK doesn't have - its remoteness primarily. Closing the borders (something many think we should have done but the Government refused to do) has meant the coronavirus has, in human terms, not had a huge impact.
I don't know what your problem is with Boris but he won an overwhelming election in 1919 and the left-wing Labour party was smashed......
I know he’s showing his age, but 1919 seems a push...😀
"New Zealand is retreating from the world. 91% of locals do not expect life to return to normal, even once they are vaccinated. Jacinda Ardern: “our borders are likely to change quite permanently as a result of Covid-19.”"
I don't know what your problem is with her but last September she won an overwhelming re-election and the centre-right National Party was smashed recording its second worst ever election result.
New Zealand has a lot of advantages the UK doesn't have - its remoteness primarily. Closing the borders (something many think we should have done but the Government refused to do) has meant the coronavirus has, in human terms, not had a huge impact.
I don't know what your problem is with Boris but he won an overwhelming election in 1919 and the left-wing Labour party was smashed......
I know he’s showing his age, but 1919 seems a push...😀
Amazing to think we are now a hundred years into the thousand year Tory reich.
It's about time this was said. How many lives have been lost already as a result of the government not giving people this information? What is worse, many Cabinet ministers have been walking about wearing these pieces of crap for more than a year now. I really hope Sajid Javid recovers.
It's about time this was said. How many lives have been lost already as a result of the government not giving people this information? What is worse, many Cabinet ministers have been walking about wearing these pieces of crap for more than a year now. I really hope Sajid Javid recovers.
Those comments are from an engineer. What does an actual expert in viral transmission think?
Mask design is an engineering job. But I take your point, and hopefully some of the experts who post here will chip in. Some of the sources I've found say that cloth is better than nothing in the population at large, assuming people are educated in how to wear it correctly and given the unfeasibility of distributing medical-grade PPE to the masses.
Seems to me that he's taken a rather simplistic assumption that because the size of the viral particle is small (0.1 micron), a cloth mask is ineffective. Well guess what, the N95 mask only offers protection down to 0.3 microns. I think that assumption is wrong, the viral particles are carried by larger droplets of water, which both an N95 and a cloth mask will help block.
Indeed.
Viruses don’t go around naked. The aerosol droplets that it travels in are, what, 5 microns?
If cloth masks stop 3% of particles of 0.1 microns, then the proportion of particles of 5 micron size (fifty times bigger) that they stop should be quite considerably higher.
Of course, with motivated reasoning, this won’t slow down those who want masks to be ineffective; they’ll just gloss past it and grab another argument. And another. And another.
It's about time this was said. How many lives have been lost already as a result of the government not giving people this information? What is worse, many Cabinet ministers have been walking about wearing these pieces of crap for more than a year now. I really hope Sajid Javid recovers.
It's about time this was said. How many lives have been lost already as a result of the government not giving people this information? What is worse, many Cabinet ministers have been walking about wearing these pieces of crap for more than a year now. I really hope Sajid Javid recovers.
Those comments are from an engineer. What does an actual expert in viral transmission think?
Mask design is an engineering job. But I take your point, and hopefully some of the experts who post here will chip in. Some of the sources I've found say that cloth is better than nothing in the population at large, assuming people are educated in how to wear it correctly and given the unfeasibility of distributing medical-grade PPE to the masses.
Seems to me that he's taken a rather simplistic assumption that because the size of the viral particle is small (0.1 micron), a cloth mask is ineffective. Well guess what, the N95 mask only offers protection down to 0.3 microns. I think that assumption is wrong, the viral particles are carried by larger droplets of water, which both an N95 and a cloth mask will help block.
Indeed.
Viruses don’t go around naked. The aerosol droplets that it travels in are, what, 5 microns?
If cloth masks stop 3% of particles of 0.1 microns, then the proportion of particles of 5 micron size (fifty times bigger) that they stop should be quite considerably higher.
Of course, with motivated reasoning, this won’t slow down those who want masks to be ineffective; they’ll just gloss past it and grab another argument. And another. And another.
No wonder the telegraph picked up on it. Disinformation at its finest.
If I were to guess, I'd say the permanent change is going to be a vaccine/PCR requirement.
What I found interesting from the piece were two things:
1) Jacinda Ahern (big fan of @londonpubman but don't tell him) compared covid to a terrorist attack. It's an analogy I've used and there are some elements of truth.
2) There's a recognition life is going to change - it won't change the same for everyone everywhere but for a lot of people, life won't be the same and that, oddly enough, isn't always a bad thing.
How we understand, accept and embrace change is the challenge of life. I sense too many have a febrile desire to return to a pre-Covid life but that has gone, the world, whether we like it or not, has moved on.
Indeed in yougov this week, a lot of people do not want a return to status quo ante:
That's a pretty low bar though isn't it? I will certainly be endeavouring to keep up at least one walk per day. And I won't be buying salad from supermarkets. I will continue to get a box every week delivered from the local shop. I shall do more conversations Online. Hardly revolutionary or earth shattering. But puts me firmly in the not status quo ante column.
"New Zealand is retreating from the world. 91% of locals do not expect life to return to normal, even once they are vaccinated. Jacinda Ardern: “our borders are likely to change quite permanently as a result of Covid-19.”"
I don't know what your problem is with her but last September she won an overwhelming re-election and the centre-right National Party was smashed recording its second worst ever election result.
New Zealand has a lot of advantages the UK doesn't have - its remoteness primarily. Closing the borders (something many think we should have done but the Government refused to do) has meant the coronavirus has, in human terms, not had a huge impact.
I don't know what your problem is with Boris but he won an overwhelming election in 1919 and the left-wing Labour party was smashed......
I don't even know what possessed you to waste your 13,148th post with this.
That's a pretty low bar though isn't it? I will certainly be endeavouring to keep up at least one walk per day. And I won't be buying salad from supermarkets. I will continue to get a box every week delivered from the local shop. I shall do more conversations Online. Hardly revolutionary or earth shattering. But puts me firmly in the not status quo ante column.
Of course for some the changes will be minor, for others they will be significant and substantial.
I've had to sit down and pour myself a drink because I've realised I'm in a majority for the first time in years.
So this is what agreeing with most people is like?
The Russians have bought our government, seems like.
Hope they didn't pay too much for the useless feckers.
From the article:- Which leaves our own dear prime minister. Such is the decadence of the Johnson regime, no one expects anything of it. Johnson has rich men pay for his holidays, his decorators and even the food on his plate. To say he is up for sale is to understate the case against him. He has already been bought.
Blair maybe? Churchill certainly. What is different now is that all sense of honour is gone. No need to resign if caught out. As Cohen says, good chaps have been replaced by bad actors.
EXCLUSIVE Starmer set to expel 1,000 far left Labour members in four ‘poisonous’ groups
Corbyn included?
Momentum as well or serkeir is frit.
The main problem is the trots Kinnock threw out and Miliband let back in. And the Tories. But is this serious or just Mandelson's "take on your own party" playbook? I doubt the voter on the Clapham omnibus will give a damn either way.
May be a mistake to presume everyone who voted Brexit have the same idea about what is needed. I’ve a hunch red Brexit supporters quite like the lefty radicalism as next step. What unites Brexit supporters is turn the clock back, because they have the view things were so much better back then, not in a greedy way, they want that better for their children and grandchildren, they want that better for the whole nation. Was it not so much better when there were 40k jobs in the car plant, not 4K. Was it not better before the country become swamped by immigrants, now there’s not enough homes for anyone, all the council houses full of asylum seekers, worse, all the green spaces they remember as kids is being built on because the nation is full. And the hospitals they fondly remembered closed. And they blame successive governments for this - not globalisation or deindustrialisation, it was actually policy of successive governments, from Thatcher through Blair to today. The red Brexit voters want to turn the clock back to a better time before Thatcher ****** everything up with deregulation and privatisation.
Note. Not necessarily all my views, but does show not to presume all Brexit voters from across political spectrum like minded about the road to be taken?
So where you say person on bus doesn’t care, they hear Starmer destroying the Labour policies and expelling the radicalism they want, doing this Starmer has lost their vote, and without it cannot get anywhere near power, even coalition power.
UK was sick man of Europe, Thatcher saved it etc etc is irrelevant to what I am arguing here, because I am talking about the mindset that voted Labour in 70s 80s, 90s, 00s, who then voted brexit and then Brexit Boris to deliver brexit, what does their mindset wish for the road to be taken, what kind of turning back the clock were they thinking of when they voted Brexit? Whilst there is crowing about Tory polling 41%+ with no gravity, what percentage of it drifts away when the road forward is clearer and they don’t like it, enough to trap the Tories polling below 30% in two years and into the election even without post Covid stagflation?
That's a pretty low bar though isn't it? I will certainly be endeavouring to keep up at least one walk per day. And I won't be buying salad from supermarkets. I will continue to get a box every week delivered from the local shop. I shall do more conversations Online. Hardly revolutionary or earth shattering. But puts me firmly in the not status quo ante column.
Of course for some the changes will be minor, for others they will be significant and substantial.
I've had to sit down and pour myself a drink because I've realised I'm in a majority for the first time in years.
So this is what agreeing with most people is like?
Very strange.
The other point is as you say, it isn't a choice. The changes wraught by Covid won't go back in the bottle. No matter how determined some are. It's quite heartening to see the widespread acceptance. Even if not everyone will like all of it.
It's about time this was said. How many lives have been lost already as a result of the government not giving people this information? What is worse, many Cabinet ministers have been walking about wearing these pieces of crap for more than a year now. I really hope Sajid Javid recovers.
It's about time this was said. How many lives have been lost already as a result of the government not giving people this information? What is worse, many Cabinet ministers have been walking about wearing these pieces of crap for more than a year now. I really hope Sajid Javid recovers.
Those comments are from an engineer. What does an actual expert in viral transmission think?
Mask design is an engineering job. But I take your point, and hopefully some of the experts who post here will chip in. Some of the sources I've found say that cloth is better than nothing in the population at large, assuming people are educated in how to wear it correctly and given the unfeasibility of distributing medical-grade PPE to the masses.
Seems to me that he's taken a rather simplistic assumption that because the size of the viral particle is small (0.1 micron), a cloth mask is ineffective. Well guess what, the N95 mask only offers protection down to 0.3 microns. I think that assumption is wrong, the viral particles are carried by larger droplets of water, which both an N95 and a cloth mask will help block.
Indeed.
Viruses don’t go around naked. The aerosol droplets that it travels in are, what, 5 microns?
If cloth masks stop 3% of particles of 0.1 microns, then the proportion of particles of 5 micron size (fifty times bigger) that they stop should be quite considerably higher.
Of course, with motivated reasoning, this won’t slow down those who want masks to be ineffective; they’ll just gloss past it and grab another argument. And another. And another.
We had this months ago. At root is a disagreement between medics and scientists about how aerosols work. You'd have hoped they'd have sorted it out by now, with some proper modelling and the odd experiment. Apparently not.
Sounds about right, then about 33,000, then 42,000... etc.
Do you withdraw your prediction that UK Peak Daily Cases was "yesterday"?
Well, duh. Given that cases didn't in fact peak yesterday.
But I hold by my general view: schools are closing, the Euros are behind us and the sun is shining. That means that - even if it wasn't yesterday - cases will start declining tout suite.
"New Zealand is retreating from the world. 91% of locals do not expect life to return to normal, even once they are vaccinated. Jacinda Ardern: “our borders are likely to change quite permanently as a result of Covid-19.”"
I don't know what your problem is with her but last September she won an overwhelming re-election and the centre-right National Party was smashed recording its second worst ever election result.
New Zealand has a lot of advantages the UK doesn't have - its remoteness primarily. Closing the borders (something many think we should have done but the Government refused to do) has meant the coronavirus has, in human terms, not had a huge impact.
I don't know what your problem is with Boris but he won an overwhelming election in 1919 and the left-wing Labour party was smashed......
A khaki election? At the height of the Spanish Flu? Oh, my.
EXCLUSIVE Starmer set to expel 1,000 far left Labour members in four ‘poisonous’ groups
Corbyn included?
Momentum as well or serkeir is frit.
The main problem is the trots Kinnock threw out and Miliband let back in. And the Tories. But is this serious or just Mandelson's "take on your own party" playbook? I doubt the voter on the Clapham omnibus will give a damn either way.
May be a mistake to presume everyone who voted Brexit have the same idea about what is needed. I’ve a hunch red Brexit supporters quite like the lefty radicalism as next step. What unites Brexit supporters is turn the clock back, because they have the view things were so much better back then, not in a greedy way, they want that better for their children and grandchildren, they want that better for the whole nation. Was it not so much better when there were 40k jobs in the car plant, not 4K. Was it not better before the country become swamped by immigrants, now there’s not enough homes for anyone, all the council houses full of asylum seekers, worse, all the green spaces they remember as kids is being built on because the nation is full. And the hospitals they fondly remembered closed. And they blame successive governments for this - not globalisation or deindustrialisation, it was actually policy of successive governments, from Thatcher through Blair to today. The red Brexit voters want to turn the clock back to a better time before Thatcher ****** everything up with deregulation and privatisation.
Note. Not necessarily all my views, but does show not to presume all Brexit voters from across political spectrum like minded about the road to be taken?
So where you say person on bus doesn’t care, they hear Starmer destroying the Labour policies and expelling the radicalism they want, doing this Starmer has lost their vote, and without it cannot get anywhere near power, even coalition power.
UK was sick man of Europe, Thatcher saved it etc etc is irrelevant to what I am arguing here, because I am talking about the mindset that voted Labour in 70s 80s, 90s, 00s, who then voted brexit and then Brexit Boris to deliver brexit, what does their mindset wish for the road to be taken, what kind of turning back the clock were they thinking of when they voted Brexit? Whilst there is crowing about Tory polling 41%+ with no gravity, what percentage of it drifts away when the road forward is clearer and they don’t like it, enough to trap the Tories polling below 30% in two years and into the election even without post Covid stagflation?
The Brexit vote was, for a great many, a vote to reset the clock at a time in the past. There is no agreement as to which decade.
"New Zealand is retreating from the world. 91% of locals do not expect life to return to normal, even once they are vaccinated. Jacinda Ardern: “our borders are likely to change quite permanently as a result of Covid-19.”"
I don't know what your problem is with her but last September she won an overwhelming re-election and the centre-right National Party was smashed recording its second worst ever election result.
New Zealand has a lot of advantages the UK doesn't have - its remoteness primarily. Closing the borders (something many think we should have done but the Government refused to do) has meant the coronavirus has, in human terms, not had a huge impact.
I don't know what your problem is with Boris but he won an overwhelming election in 1919 and the left-wing Labour party was smashed......
I don't even know what possessed you to waste your 13,148th post with this.
Sad.
They are making the point that just because someone enjoyed a large election victory doesn’t mean people should stop disagreeing with them. We see a lot of that here, for example.
Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.
EXCLUSIVE Starmer set to expel 1,000 far left Labour members in four ‘poisonous’ groups
Corbyn included?
Momentum as well or serkeir is frit.
The main problem is the trots Kinnock threw out and Miliband let back in. And the Tories. But is this serious or just Mandelson's "take on your own party" playbook? I doubt the voter on the Clapham omnibus will give a damn either way.
May be a mistake to presume everyone who voted Brexit have the same idea about what is needed. I’ve a hunch red Brexit supporters quite like the lefty radicalism as next step. What unites Brexit supporters is turn the clock back, because they have the view things were so much better back then, not in a greedy way, they want that better for their children and grandchildren, they want that better for the whole nation. Was it not so much better when there were 40k jobs in the car plant, not 4K. Was it not better before the country become swamped by immigrants, now there’s not enough homes for anyone, all the council houses full of asylum seekers, worse, all the green spaces they remember as kids is being built on because the nation is full. And the hospitals they fondly remembered closed. And they blame successive governments for this - not globalisation or deindustrialisation, it was actually policy of successive governments, from Thatcher through Blair to today. The red Brexit voters want to turn the clock back to a better time before Thatcher ****** everything up with deregulation and privatisation.
Note. Not necessarily all my views, but does show not to presume all Brexit voters from across political spectrum like minded about the road to be taken?
So where you say person on bus doesn’t care, they hear Starmer destroying the Labour policies and expelling the radicalism they want, doing this Starmer has lost their vote, and without it cannot get anywhere near power, even coalition power.
UK was sick man of Europe, Thatcher saved it etc etc is irrelevant to what I am arguing here, because I am talking about the mindset that voted Labour in 70s 80s, 90s, 00s, who then voted brexit and then Brexit Boris to deliver brexit, what does their mindset wish for the road to be taken, what kind of turning back the clock were they thinking of when they voted Brexit? Whilst there is crowing about Tory polling 41%+ with no gravity, what percentage of it drifts away when the road forward is clearer and they don’t like it, enough to trap the Tories polling below 30% in two years and into the election even without post Covid stagflation?
Sick man of Europe?
Well 1976 was peak national happiness, and in the Seventies a lot of working class peoples incomes Rose substantially, giving them access to consumer goods and lifestyles that were a major step up. "Whatever happened to the Likely Lads?" shows this aspect of the Seventies in the North very well.
I agree that there is a fundamental conflict in the Brexit voting population between a small but influential group of small state free marketerrs and a substantial but less represented group who quite like state intervention and tariffs. When levelling up involves the latter, I can see the free marketeers shafting their useful idiots.
The table's been conveniently cropped to hide the daily deaths column.
That table is garbage. Cases are likely many times larger globally and still significantly larger even in the countries that do extensive testing, many countries don't test remotely enough, and the deaths column is nonsense. Russia is closing on 600,000 excess deaths, and India is perhaps up to 2 million dead by some estimates.
They are making the point that just because someone enjoyed a large election victory doesn’t mean people should stop disagreeing with them. We see a lot of that here, for example.
Yes, it's called democracy and it's the best system we have, certainly compared to the alternatives as someone once opined.
It's the likes of @HYUFD who consistently repeat the mantra the Conservatives won the last election with an 80-seat majority which translates as "we're in power and we don't care what you think".
Indeed, plenty come on here and argue the consistent Conservative poll leads also invalidate the criticisms of Government.
The table's been conveniently cropped to hide the daily deaths column.
That table is garbage. Cases are likely many times larger globally and still significantly larger even in the countries that do extensive testing, many countries don't test remotely enough, and the deaths column is nonsense. Russia is closing on 600,000 excess deaths, and India is perhaps up to 2 million dead by some estimates.
Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.
Why do double-jabbed people need to self-isolate on return from France?
EXCLUSIVE Starmer set to expel 1,000 far left Labour members in four ‘poisonous’ groups
Corbyn included?
Momentum as well or serkeir is frit.
The main problem is the trots Kinnock threw out and Miliband let back in. And the Tories. But is this serious or just Mandelson's "take on your own party" playbook? I doubt the voter on the Clapham omnibus will give a damn either way.
May be a mistake to presume everyone who voted Brexit have the same idea about what is needed. I’ve a hunch red Brexit supporters quite like the lefty radicalism as next step. What unites Brexit supporters is turn the clock back, because they have the view things were so much better back then, not in a greedy way, they want that better for their children and grandchildren, they want that better for the whole nation. Was it not so much better when there were 40k jobs in the car plant, not 4K. Was it not better before the country become swamped by immigrants, now there’s not enough homes for anyone, all the council houses full of asylum seekers, worse, all the green spaces they remember as kids is being built on because the nation is full. And the hospitals they fondly remembered closed. And they blame successive governments for this - not globalisation or deindustrialisation, it was actually policy of successive governments, from Thatcher through Blair to today. The red Brexit voters want to turn the clock back to a better time before Thatcher ****** everything up with deregulation and privatisation.
Note. Not necessarily all my views, but does show not to presume all Brexit voters from across political spectrum like minded about the road to be taken?
So where you say person on bus doesn’t care, they hear Starmer destroying the Labour policies and expelling the radicalism they want, doing this Starmer has lost their vote, and without it cannot get anywhere near power, even coalition power.
UK was sick man of Europe, Thatcher saved it etc etc is irrelevant to what I am arguing here, because I am talking about the mindset that voted Labour in 70s 80s, 90s, 00s, who then voted brexit and then Brexit Boris to deliver brexit, what does their mindset wish for the road to be taken, what kind of turning back the clock were they thinking of when they voted Brexit? Whilst there is crowing about Tory polling 41%+ with no gravity, what percentage of it drifts away when the road forward is clearer and they don’t like it, enough to trap the Tories polling below 30% in two years and into the election even without post Covid stagflation?
Sick man of Europe?
Well 1976 was peak national happiness, and in the Seventies a lot of working class peoples incomes Rose substantially, giving them access to consumer goods and lifestyles that were a major step up. "Whatever happened to the Likely Lads?" shows this aspect of the Seventies in the North very well.
I agree that there is a fundamental conflict in the Brexit voting population between a small but influential group of small state free marketerrs and a substantial but less represented group who quite like state intervention and tariffs. When levelling up involves the latter, I can see the free marketeers shafting their useful idiots.
I can see that conflict defining the next Tory administration. (I reckon it will be glossed over by plucking the low hanging fruit such as overseas aid before then). It's contradictions are what will bring to and end the voting coalition and the majority c 2027-8. I just hope I'm right, and live to see the day.
Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
James Ward @JamesWard73 · 2h in case you're in any doubt that this is mostly a football-linked spike in cases, see the gender divide in case growth rates over the last few days:
The table's been conveniently cropped to hide the daily deaths column.
That table is garbage. Cases are likely many times larger globally and still significantly larger even in the countries that do extensive testing, many countries don't test remotely enough, and the deaths column is nonsense. Russia is closing on 600,000 excess deaths, and India is perhaps up to 2 million dead by some estimates.
2 million? Really?
Yes that was an estimate from an India researcher a week or so ago. Obivously that's not official, but it's not ludicrous either, and we know that Russia has a similar scale gap between official covid deaths and the excess deaths.
Sounds about right, then about 33,000, then 42,000... etc.
Do you withdraw your prediction that UK Peak Daily Cases was "yesterday"?
Well, duh. Given that cases didn't in fact peak yesterday.
But I hold by my general view: schools are closing, the Euros are behind us and the sun is shining. That means that - even if it wasn't yesterday - cases will start declining tout suite.
My prediction for those very reasons was that we would see the peak about the 19th. I must confess I am a bit twitchy about this and it is looking a shade optimistic at the moment.
Sounds about right, then about 33,000, then 42,000... etc.
Do you withdraw your prediction that UK Peak Daily Cases was "yesterday"?
Well, duh. Given that cases didn't in fact peak yesterday.
But I hold by my general view: schools are closing, the Euros are behind us and the sun is shining. That means that - even if it wasn't yesterday - cases will start declining tout suite.
Yours was an intriguingly poor prediction. I genuinely don't see why or how you made it
It is fecking obvious cases will continue rising for a while - schools in England don't shut til next Friday, it's Freedom Day on Monday. We've got another week or so to go...
The table's been conveniently cropped to hide the daily deaths column.
That table is garbage. Cases are likely many times larger globally and still significantly larger even in the countries that do extensive testing, many countries don't test remotely enough, and the deaths column is nonsense. Russia is closing on 600,000 excess deaths, and India is perhaps up to 2 million dead by some estimates.
2 million? Really?
Yes that was an estimate from an India researcher a week or so ago. Obivously that's not official, but it's not ludicrous either, and we know that Russia has a similar scale gap between official covid deaths and the excess deaths.
EXCLUSIVE Starmer set to expel 1,000 far left Labour members in four ‘poisonous’ groups
Corbyn included?
Momentum as well or serkeir is frit.
The main problem is the trots Kinnock threw out and Miliband let back in. And the Tories. But is this serious or just Mandelson's "take on your own party" playbook? I doubt the voter on the Clapham omnibus will give a damn either way.
May be a mistake to presume everyone who voted Brexit have the same idea about what is needed. I’ve a hunch red Brexit supporters quite like the lefty radicalism as next step. What unites Brexit supporters is turn the clock back, because they have the view things were so much better back then, not in a greedy way, they want that better for their children and grandchildren, they want that better for the whole nation. Was it not so much better when there were 40k jobs in the car plant, not 4K. Was it not better before the country become swamped by immigrants, now there’s not enough homes for anyone, all the council houses full of asylum seekers, worse, all the green spaces they remember as kids is being built on because the nation is full. And the hospitals they fondly remembered closed. And they blame successive governments for this - not globalisation or deindustrialisation, it was actually policy of successive governments, from Thatcher through Blair to today. The red Brexit voters want to turn the clock back to a better time before Thatcher ****** everything up with deregulation and privatisation.
Note. Not necessarily all my views, but does show not to presume all Brexit voters from across political spectrum like minded about the road to be taken?
So where you say person on bus doesn’t care, they hear Starmer destroying the Labour policies and expelling the radicalism they want, doing this Starmer has lost their vote, and without it cannot get anywhere near power, even coalition power.
UK was sick man of Europe, Thatcher saved it etc etc is irrelevant to what I am arguing here, because I am talking about the mindset that voted Labour in 70s 80s, 90s, 00s, who then voted brexit and then Brexit Boris to deliver brexit, what does their mindset wish for the road to be taken, what kind of turning back the clock were they thinking of when they voted Brexit? Whilst there is crowing about Tory polling 41%+ with no gravity, what percentage of it drifts away when the road forward is clearer and they don’t like it, enough to trap the Tories polling below 30% in two years and into the election even without post Covid stagflation?
Sick man of Europe?
Well 1976 was peak national happiness, and in the Seventies a lot of working class peoples incomes Rose substantially, giving them access to consumer goods and lifestyles that were a major step up. "Whatever happened to the Likely Lads?" shows this aspect of the Seventies in the North very well.
I agree that there is a fundamental conflict in the Brexit voting population between a small but influential group of small state free marketerrs and a substantial but less represented group who quite like state intervention and tariffs. When levelling up involves the latter, I can see the free marketeers shafting their useful idiots.
I can see that conflict defining the next Tory administration. (I reckon it will be glossed over by plucking the low hanging fruit such as overseas aid before then). It's contradictions are what will bring to and end the voting coalition and the majority c 2027-8. I just hope I'm right, and live to see the day.
I'm not writing off the next GE yet for hung parliament.
Sounds about right, then about 33,000, then 42,000... etc.
Do you withdraw your prediction that UK Peak Daily Cases was "yesterday"?
Well, duh. Given that cases didn't in fact peak yesterday.
But I hold by my general view: schools are closing, the Euros are behind us and the sun is shining. That means that - even if it wasn't yesterday - cases will start declining tout suite.
I do wonder what the effect of half of schools closing on Monday will be. By specimen date yesterday may end up being the 7 day average peak.
The table's been conveniently cropped to hide the daily deaths column.
That table is garbage. Cases are likely many times larger globally and still significantly larger even in the countries that do extensive testing, many countries don't test remotely enough, and the deaths column is nonsense. Russia is closing on 600,000 excess deaths, and India is perhaps up to 2 million dead by some estimates.
2 million? Really?
Yes that was an estimate from an India researcher a week or so ago. Obivously that's not official, but it's not ludicrous either, and we know that Russia has a similar scale gap between official covid deaths and the excess deaths.
About a month ago the Economist made an informed guess that perhaps 10m have died worldwide, not the reported 4m. No idea where that guess stands now
EXCLUSIVE Starmer set to expel 1,000 far left Labour members in four ‘poisonous’ groups
Corbyn included?
Momentum as well or serkeir is frit.
The main problem is the trots Kinnock threw out and Miliband let back in. And the Tories. But is this serious or just Mandelson's "take on your own party" playbook? I doubt the voter on the Clapham omnibus will give a damn either way.
May be a mistake to presume everyone who voted Brexit have the same idea about what is needed. I’ve a hunch red Brexit supporters quite like the lefty radicalism as next step. What unites Brexit supporters is turn the clock back, because they have the view things were so much better back then, not in a greedy way, they want that better for their children and grandchildren, they want that better for the whole nation. Was it not so much better when there were 40k jobs in the car plant, not 4K. Was it not better before the country become swamped by immigrants, now there’s not enough homes for anyone, all the council houses full of asylum seekers, worse, all the green spaces they remember as kids is being built on because the nation is full. And the hospitals they fondly remembered closed. And they blame successive governments for this - not globalisation or deindustrialisation, it was actually policy of successive governments, from Thatcher through Blair to today. The red Brexit voters want to turn the clock back to a better time before Thatcher ****** everything up with deregulation and privatisation.
Note. Not necessarily all my views, but does show not to presume all Brexit voters from across political spectrum like minded about the road to be taken?
So where you say person on bus doesn’t care, they hear Starmer destroying the Labour policies and expelling the radicalism they want, doing this Starmer has lost their vote, and without it cannot get anywhere near power, even coalition power.
UK was sick man of Europe, Thatcher saved it etc etc is irrelevant to what I am arguing here, because I am talking about the mindset that voted Labour in 70s 80s, 90s, 00s, who then voted brexit and then Brexit Boris to deliver brexit, what does their mindset wish for the road to be taken, what kind of turning back the clock were they thinking of when they voted Brexit? Whilst there is crowing about Tory polling 41%+ with no gravity, what percentage of it drifts away when the road forward is clearer and they don’t like it, enough to trap the Tories polling below 30% in two years and into the election even without post Covid stagflation?
Sick man of Europe?
Well 1976 was peak national happiness, and in the Seventies a lot of working class peoples incomes Rose substantially, giving them access to consumer goods and lifestyles that were a major step up. "Whatever happened to the Likely Lads?" shows this aspect of the Seventies in the North very well.
I agree that there is a fundamental conflict in the Brexit voting population between a small but influential group of small state free marketerrs and a substantial but less represented group who quite like state intervention and tariffs. When levelling up involves the latter, I can see the free marketeers shafting their useful idiots.
I can see that conflict defining the next Tory administration. (I reckon it will be glossed over by plucking the low hanging fruit such as overseas aid before then). It's contradictions are what will bring to and end the voting coalition and the majority c 2027-8. I just hope I'm right, and live to see the day.
I'm not writing off the next GE yet for hung parliament.
I think you are right not to. The next couple of years are going to be challenging, and for all Johnson wins elections, he’s god awful as a pm.
James Ward @JamesWard73 · 2h in case you're in any doubt that this is mostly a football-linked spike in cases, see the gender divide in case growth rates over the last few days:
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
I wouldn't say relaxed, but it's probably the least bad time for it to occur.
Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
Except:
Alastair McLellan @HSJEditor Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8
Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.
I agree with the logic behind getting the exit wave done now, but in practice all the logic in the world will do us no good if the remaining vulnerable keel over at a faster rate than that with which the hospitals can cope. In which case, we'll be stuck with the ongoing cycle of lockdowns for God alone knows how much longer.
On a previous point, this is why New Zealand may find it very, very hard indeed to wean itself off isolation. The UK's current predicament is proof that, even in the fraction of the populace that accepts vaccination, it is some way short of 100% effective. Relying on the vaccines to get them out of this mess means accepting, at a guess, a couple of thousand deaths in a country that has so far suffered a sum total of 26. One can imagine how that will go down: "Whose Grannies do we kill in order to get our tourism industry back?"
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
Except:
Alastair McLellan @HSJEditor Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
I wouldn't say relaxed, but it's probably the least bad time for it to occur.
Spectator reported last night that Johnson got cold feet a few days ago but it was too late to stop the mobilisation of the trains as he had spent all that time going on about 'freedom day' and so on.
EXCLUSIVE Starmer set to expel 1,000 far left Labour members in four ‘poisonous’ groups
Corbyn included?
Momentum as well or serkeir is frit.
The main problem is the trots Kinnock threw out and Miliband let back in. And the Tories. But is this serious or just Mandelson's "take on your own party" playbook? I doubt the voter on the Clapham omnibus will give a damn either way.
May be a mistake to presume everyone who voted Brexit have the same idea about what is needed. I’ve a hunch red Brexit supporters quite like the lefty radicalism as next step. What unites Brexit supporters is turn the clock back, because they have the view things were so much better back then, not in a greedy way, they want that better for their children and grandchildren, they want that better for the whole nation. Was it not so much better when there were 40k jobs in the car plant, not 4K. Was it not better before the country become swamped by immigrants, now there’s not enough homes for anyone, all the council houses full of asylum seekers, worse, all the green spaces they remember as kids is being built on because the nation is full. And the hospitals they fondly remembered closed. And they blame successive governments for this - not globalisation or deindustrialisation, it was actually policy of successive governments, from Thatcher through Blair to today. The red Brexit voters want to turn the clock back to a better time before Thatcher ****** everything up with deregulation and privatisation.
Note. Not necessarily all my views, but does show not to presume all Brexit voters from across political spectrum like minded about the road to be taken?
So where you say person on bus doesn’t care, they hear Starmer destroying the Labour policies and expelling the radicalism they want, doing this Starmer has lost their vote, and without it cannot get anywhere near power, even coalition power.
UK was sick man of Europe, Thatcher saved it etc etc is irrelevant to what I am arguing here, because I am talking about the mindset that voted Labour in 70s 80s, 90s, 00s, who then voted brexit and then Brexit Boris to deliver brexit, what does their mindset wish for the road to be taken, what kind of turning back the clock were they thinking of when they voted Brexit? Whilst there is crowing about Tory polling 41%+ with no gravity, what percentage of it drifts away when the road forward is clearer and they don’t like it, enough to trap the Tories polling below 30% in two years and into the election even without post Covid stagflation?
Sick man of Europe?
Well 1976 was peak national happiness, and in the Seventies a lot of working class peoples incomes Rose substantially, giving them access to consumer goods and lifestyles that were a major step up. "Whatever happened to the Likely Lads?" shows this aspect of the Seventies in the North very well.
I agree that there is a fundamental conflict in the Brexit voting population between a small but influential group of small state free marketerrs and a substantial but less represented group who quite like state intervention and tariffs. When levelling up involves the latter, I can see the free marketeers shafting their useful idiots.
I can see that conflict defining the next Tory administration. (I reckon it will be glossed over by plucking the low hanging fruit such as overseas aid before then). It's contradictions are what will bring to and end the voting coalition and the majority c 2027-8. I just hope I'm right, and live to see the day.
I'm not writing off the next GE yet for hung parliament.
I think you are right not to. The next couple of years are going to be challenging, and for all Johnson wins elections, he’s god awful as a pm.
Inflation, debt and god knows what else economic mayhem could easily sweep this government away.
He will be very very tempted to go early once he starts to understand how bad the economics are looking.
James Ward @JamesWard73 · 2h in case you're in any doubt that this is mostly a football-linked spike in cases, see the gender divide in case growth rates over the last few days:
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
EXCLUSIVE Starmer set to expel 1,000 far left Labour members in four ‘poisonous’ groups
Corbyn included?
Momentum as well or serkeir is frit.
The main problem is the trots Kinnock threw out and Miliband let back in. And the Tories. But is this serious or just Mandelson's "take on your own party" playbook? I doubt the voter on the Clapham omnibus will give a damn either way.
May be a mistake to presume everyone who voted Brexit have the same idea about what is needed. I’ve a hunch red Brexit supporters quite like the lefty radicalism as next step. What unites Brexit supporters is turn the clock back, because they have the view things were so much better back then, not in a greedy way, they want that better for their children and grandchildren, they want that better for the whole nation. Was it not so much better when there were 40k jobs in the car plant, not 4K. Was it not better before the country become swamped by immigrants, now there’s not enough homes for anyone, all the council houses full of asylum seekers, worse, all the green spaces they remember as kids is being built on because the nation is full. And the hospitals they fondly remembered closed. And they blame successive governments for this - not globalisation or deindustrialisation, it was actually policy of successive governments, from Thatcher through Blair to today. The red Brexit voters want to turn the clock back to a better time before Thatcher ****** everything up with deregulation and privatisation.
Note. Not necessarily all my views, but does show not to presume all Brexit voters from across political spectrum like minded about the road to be taken?
So where you say person on bus doesn’t care, they hear Starmer destroying the Labour policies and expelling the radicalism they want, doing this Starmer has lost their vote, and without it cannot get anywhere near power, even coalition power.
UK was sick man of Europe, Thatcher saved it etc etc is irrelevant to what I am arguing here, because I am talking about the mindset that voted Labour in 70s 80s, 90s, 00s, who then voted brexit and then Brexit Boris to deliver brexit, what does their mindset wish for the road to be taken, what kind of turning back the clock were they thinking of when they voted Brexit? Whilst there is crowing about Tory polling 41%+ with no gravity, what percentage of it drifts away when the road forward is clearer and they don’t like it, enough to trap the Tories polling below 30% in two years and into the election even without post Covid stagflation?
Sick man of Europe?
Well 1976 was peak national happiness, and in the Seventies a lot of working class peoples incomes Rose substantially, giving them access to consumer goods and lifestyles that were a major step up. "Whatever happened to the Likely Lads?" shows this aspect of the Seventies in the North very well.
I agree that there is a fundamental conflict in the Brexit voting population between a small but influential group of small state free marketerrs and a substantial but less represented group who quite like state intervention and tariffs. When levelling up involves the latter, I can see the free marketeers shafting their useful idiots.
I can see that conflict defining the next Tory administration. (I reckon it will be glossed over by plucking the low hanging fruit such as overseas aid before then). It's contradictions are what will bring to and end the voting coalition and the majority c 2027-8. I just hope I'm right, and live to see the day.
I'm not writing off the next GE yet for hung parliament.
I think you are right not to. The next couple of years are going to be challenging, and for all Johnson wins elections, he’s god awful as a pm.
Inflation, debt and god knows what else economic mayhem could easily sweep this government away.
He will be very very tempted to go early once he starts to understand how bad the economics are looking.
OGHs article earlier in the week called 2023 as the value bet. I think he, and you, are right.
James Ward @JamesWard73 · 2h in case you're in any doubt that this is mostly a football-linked spike in cases, see the gender divide in case growth rates over the last few days:
EXCLUSIVE Starmer set to expel 1,000 far left Labour members in four ‘poisonous’ groups
Corbyn included?
Momentum as well or serkeir is frit.
The main problem is the trots Kinnock threw out and Miliband let back in. And the Tories. But is this serious or just Mandelson's "take on your own party" playbook? I doubt the voter on the Clapham omnibus will give a damn either way.
May be a mistake to presume everyone who voted Brexit have the same idea about what is needed. I’ve a hunch red Brexit supporters quite like the lefty radicalism as next step. What unites Brexit supporters is turn the clock back, because they have the view things were so much better back then, not in a greedy way, they want that better for their children and grandchildren, they want that better for the whole nation. Was it not so much better when there were 40k jobs in the car plant, not 4K. Was it not better before the country become swamped by immigrants, now there’s not enough homes for anyone, all the council houses full of asylum seekers, worse, all the green spaces they remember as kids is being built on because the nation is full. And the hospitals they fondly remembered closed. And they blame successive governments for this - not globalisation or deindustrialisation, it was actually policy of successive governments, from Thatcher through Blair to today. The red Brexit voters want to turn the clock back to a better time before Thatcher ****** everything up with deregulation and privatisation.
Note. Not necessarily all my views, but does show not to presume all Brexit voters from across political spectrum like minded about the road to be taken?
So where you say person on bus doesn’t care, they hear Starmer destroying the Labour policies and expelling the radicalism they want, doing this Starmer has lost their vote, and without it cannot get anywhere near power, even coalition power.
UK was sick man of Europe, Thatcher saved it etc etc is irrelevant to what I am arguing here, because I am talking about the mindset that voted Labour in 70s 80s, 90s, 00s, who then voted brexit and then Brexit Boris to deliver brexit, what does their mindset wish for the road to be taken, what kind of turning back the clock were they thinking of when they voted Brexit? Whilst there is crowing about Tory polling 41%+ with no gravity, what percentage of it drifts away when the road forward is clearer and they don’t like it, enough to trap the Tories polling below 30% in two years and into the election even without post Covid stagflation?
Sick man of Europe?
Well 1976 was peak national happiness, and in the Seventies a lot of working class peoples incomes Rose substantially, giving them access to consumer goods and lifestyles that were a major step up. "Whatever happened to the Likely Lads?" shows this aspect of the Seventies in the North very well.
I agree that there is a fundamental conflict in the Brexit voting population between a small but influential group of small state free marketerrs and a substantial but less represented group who quite like state intervention and tariffs. When levelling up involves the latter, I can see the free marketeers shafting their useful idiots.
I can see that conflict defining the next Tory administration. (I reckon it will be glossed over by plucking the low hanging fruit such as overseas aid before then). It's contradictions are what will bring to and end the voting coalition and the majority c 2027-8. I just hope I'm right, and live to see the day.
I'm not writing off the next GE yet for hung parliament.
I think you are right not to. The next couple of years are going to be challenging, and for all Johnson wins elections, he’s god awful as a pm.
Yes. And Keir is coming now. I was impressed by how he dealt with that rather trying focus group. He looked fresh and composed and confident.
The table's been conveniently cropped to hide the daily deaths column.
That table is garbage. Cases are likely many times larger globally and still significantly larger even in the countries that do extensive testing, many countries don't test remotely enough, and the deaths column is nonsense. Russia is closing on 600,000 excess deaths, and India is perhaps up to 2 million dead by some estimates.
2 million? Really?
Yes that was an estimate from an India researcher a week or so ago. Obivously that's not official, but it's not ludicrous either, and we know that Russia has a similar scale gap between official covid deaths and the excess deaths.
I think India's an overestimate.
IHME think the ratio for India is 2.97. There are other bodies that think India had at least a million deaths in just the recent wave. I've no doubt that India's deaths from covid are a lot higher than 413,000. 2 million is not an unreasonable estimate.
James Ward @JamesWard73 · 2h in case you're in any doubt that this is mostly a football-linked spike in cases, see the gender divide in case growth rates over the last few days:
The LCFC message boards are a litany of covid cases from attending the SF and Final. A lot saying that they are going to avoid the Charity Shield as a result.
Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
Except:
Alastair McLellan @HSJEditor Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8
But what's the alternative, go back to step 1 and stay there forever?
Max, I genuinely think some would do that, right now. Back to lockdown (the proper version) to get the cases under control. This is despite the absolute success of the vaccines. The most important dataset is the deaths from Covid. The current wave hardly registers at all. We will undoubtedly have some tough times for the hospitals and more deaths, but the truth is we need to hold our nerve, take personal responsibility and try our best to get through. And I really hope the jcvi gets round to the idea of vaccinating the 11 to 18 year old cohorts.
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
James Ward @JamesWard73 · 2h in case you're in any doubt that this is mostly a football-linked spike in cases, see the gender divide in case growth rates over the last few days:
The LCFC message boards are a litany of covid cases from attending the SF and Final. A lot saying that they are going to avoid the Charity Shield as a result.
The question is did they get it from sitting on trains and buses, or is the widely preception that outdoors is like a magic invincibility shield not true against Indian variant?
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
Except:
Alastair McLellan @HSJEditor Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8
But what's the alternative, go back to step 1 and stay there forever?
Max, I genuinely think some would do that, right now. Back to lockdown (the proper version) to get the cases under control. This is despite the absolute success of the vaccines. The most important dataset is the deaths from Covid. The current wave hardly registers at all. We will undoubtedly have some tough times for the hospitals and more deaths, but the truth is we need to hold our nerve, take personal responsibility and try our best to get through. And I really hope the jcvi gets round to the idea of vaccinating the 11 to 18 year old cohorts.
It's because the media breathlessly reports case numbers.
On a previous point, this is why New Zealand may find it very, very hard indeed to wean itself off isolation. The UK's current predicament is proof that, even in the fraction of the populace that accepts vaccination, it is some way short of 100% effective. Relying on the vaccines to get them out of this mess means accepting, at a guess, a couple of thousand deaths in a country that has so far suffered a sum total of 26. One can imagine how that will go down: "Whose Grannies do we kill in order to get our tourism industry back?"
I agree. You can assume that even with full vaccination about 0.1% of your population will die from covid over the next few years, unless we get some really good therapies. New Zealand will have to face that at some point.
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
Except:
Alastair McLellan @HSJEditor Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.
Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.
The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh ..
Yes, this is scary
IF - a monstrous IF - the Delta variant significantly dodges the vaccines, then we are in for a world of pain. Indeed I don't know how we escape the hideous cycle of lockdowns. Perhaps we just accept that millions will die globally, and we reinforce health systems to cope?
Basically we accept that we have a new virulent disease maybe as bad as smallpox once was. And always the possibility of nastier variants yet.
OR this is the last big scare, and the fucking pox will fade away in a few weeks, in vaxed countries, because Delta isn't all that - and the UK example is "promising", so far - ie huge case numbers are not matched by deaths or ICU stats
James Ward @JamesWard73 · 2h in case you're in any doubt that this is mostly a football-linked spike in cases, see the gender divide in case growth rates over the last few days:
The LCFC message boards are a litany of covid cases from attending the SF and Final. A lot saying that they are going to avoid the Charity Shield as a result.
The question is did they get it from sitting on trains and buses, or is the widely preception that outdoors is like a magic invincibility shield not true against Indian variant?
Not just on the tube, but even the queues to simply get to the tube were over an hour, packed like sardines. That length of time and proximity probably overrides it being outdoors. Thats for the part of the crowd who even wanted some social distancing, tens of thousands would have been in close proximity to random strangers for many hours on those two days.
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.
Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.
The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh ..
Yes, this is scary
IF - a monstrous IF - the Delta variant significantly dodges the vaccines, then we are in for a world of pain. Indeed I don't know how we escape the hideous cycle of lockdowns. Perhaps we just accept that millions will die globally, and we reinforce health systems to cope?
Basically we accept that we have a new virulent disease maybe as bad as smallpox once was. And always the possibility of nastier variants yet.
OR this is the last big scare, and the fucking pox will fade away in a few weeks, in vaxed countries, because Delta isn't all that - and the UK example is "promising", so far - ie huge case numbers are not matched by deaths or ICU stats
Well also boosters start being administered in 6 weeks. Its a big downer though that not getting updated vaccines until next year.
James Ward @JamesWard73 · 2h in case you're in any doubt that this is mostly a football-linked spike in cases, see the gender divide in case growth rates over the last few days:
The LCFC message boards are a litany of covid cases from attending the SF and Final. A lot saying that they are going to avoid the Charity Shield as a result.
The question is did they get it from sitting on trains and buses, or is the widely preception that outdoors is like a magic invincibility shield not true against Indian variant?
Not just on the tube, but even the queues to simply get to the tube were over an hour, packed like sardines. That length of time and proximity probably overrides it being outdoors. Thats for the part of the crowd who even wanted some social distancing, tens of thousands would have been in close proximity to random strangers for many hours on those two days.
Also you see it all the time, people put their mask on at the moment they go inside a shop or train, whip it off the second they leave. Plus with football all the screaming, shouting, chanting, singing...
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.
Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.
The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh ..
Quite possibly the dosing regime. They were 3 weeks, we’ve mainly been longer.
That is what we have to hope is the differential factor. We are a bit in rubber underpants territory.
Speak for yourself. Ive had a great day, cracking cricket match, won by 6 runs, in the sun, then a couple of beers in the sun too. Turn on the inter web to see 50,000 positive tests, wonders how many are (a) seriously ill (b) unvaccinated. We have used science to turn Covid from a disease that might kill more than 1% of those it infects to somewhere around 0.1%. Still scary, especially if you are vulnerable, but not something to shut the economy down for again.
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.
Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.
The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh ..
Yes, this is scary
IF - a monstrous IF - the Delta variant significantly dodges the vaccines, then we are in for a world of pain. Indeed I don't know how we escape the hideous cycle of lockdowns. Perhaps we just accept that millions will die globally, and we reinforce health systems to cope?
Basically we accept that we have a new virulent disease maybe as bad as smallpox once was. And always the possibility of nastier variants yet.
OR this is the last big scare, and the fucking pox will fade away in a few weeks, in vaxed countries, because Delta isn't all that - and the UK example is "promising", so far - ie huge case numbers are not matched by deaths or ICU stats
I don't think the backbenches would allow another lockdown, let alone cycles of them, given the low death rates we're experiencing.
Had my second jab today - bit of a headache but nothing a couple of paracetamol wouldn't fix. I thoroughly encourage anyone who has any hesitancy at all to go and get jabbed. For your own sake, but also for all of ours. Jabs, and a bit of gumption in accepting an exit wave; they're our way out of this.
They are making the point that just because someone enjoyed a large election victory doesn’t mean people should stop disagreeing with them. We see a lot of that here, for example.
Yes, it's called democracy and it's the best system we have, certainly compared to the alternatives as someone once opined.
It's the likes of @HYUFD who consistently repeat the mantra the Conservatives won the last election with an 80-seat majority which translates as "we're in power and we don't care what you think".
Indeed, plenty come on here and argue the consistent Conservative poll leads also invalidate the criticisms of Government.
What do you think?
I have no objections to people criticising the government, or being critical of other governments, regardless of the size of their majority. It's in that context why I don't understand why NZ Labour's margin of victory was highlighted.
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.
Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.
The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh ..
Yes, this is scary
IF - a monstrous IF - the Delta variant significantly dodges the vaccines, then we are in for a world of pain. Indeed I don't know how we escape the hideous cycle of lockdowns. Perhaps we just accept that millions will die globally, and we reinforce health systems to cope?
Basically we accept that we have a new virulent disease maybe as bad as smallpox once was. And always the possibility of nastier variants yet.
OR this is the last big scare, and the fucking pox will fade away in a few weeks, in vaxed countries, because Delta isn't all that - and the UK example is "promising", so far - ie huge case numbers are not matched by deaths or ICU stats
Well also boosters start being administered in 6 weeks. Its a big downer though that not getting updated vaccines until next year.
This is the first time I've been properly, logically worried since about April, when it became blindingly obvious the vaccines were working
Since then I've presumed the virus was on the run, and even if victory was distant, it was assured
Now? I wobble. I know this is unlike me, but meh. The news is quietly ominous
Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
Except:
Alastair McLellan @HSJEditor Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8
But what's the alternative, go back to step 1 and stay there forever?
Max, I genuinely think some would do that, right now. Back to lockdown (the proper version) to get the cases under control. This is despite the absolute success of the vaccines. The most important dataset is the deaths from Covid. The current wave hardly registers at all. We will undoubtedly have some tough times for the hospitals and more deaths, but the truth is we need to hold our nerve, take personal responsibility and try our best to get through. And I really hope the jcvi gets round to the idea of vaccinating the 11 to 18 year old cohorts.
When we are locked down again this autumn it will be about the hospitals and not about the death rate.
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
In the UK about 1/6 of admissions are on ventilators, and probably a similar or larger number on CPAP or Hiflow. So if 5% of cases get admitted, around 1.5% could be considered critical. Sounds about right to me.
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.
Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.
The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh ..
Yes, this is scary
IF - a monstrous IF - the Delta variant significantly dodges the vaccines, then we are in for a world of pain. Indeed I don't know how we escape the hideous cycle of lockdowns. Perhaps we just accept that millions will die globally, and we reinforce health systems to cope?
Basically we accept that we have a new virulent disease maybe as bad as smallpox once was. And always the possibility of nastier variants yet.
OR this is the last big scare, and the fucking pox will fade away in a few weeks, in vaxed countries, because Delta isn't all that - and the UK example is "promising", so far - ie huge case numbers are not matched by deaths or ICU stats
It doesn’t. We’d already see it here where delta is now the almost exclusive strain.
Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
Except:
Alastair McLellan @HSJEditor Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8
Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
Except:
Alastair McLellan @HSJEditor Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8
But what's the alternative, go back to step 1 and stay there forever?
Max, I genuinely think some would do that, right now. Back to lockdown (the proper version) to get the cases under control. This is despite the absolute success of the vaccines. The most important dataset is the deaths from Covid. The current wave hardly registers at all. We will undoubtedly have some tough times for the hospitals and more deaths, but the truth is we need to hold our nerve, take personal responsibility and try our best to get through. And I really hope the jcvi gets round to the idea of vaccinating the 11 to 18 year old cohorts.
When we are locked down again this autumn it will be about the hospitals and not about the death rate.
As I work for myself I've always been able to go about my business entirely within the 'lockdown' laws - but apart from a few exceptions I have not gone on my usual buying/selling trips. If they're stupid enough to bring them back in the autumn, and if Boris survives the leadership confidence vote that it would trigger, I will be doing just that and carrying on regardless.
Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
Except:
Alastair McLellan @HSJEditor Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.
Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.
The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh ..
Yes, this is scary
IF - a monstrous IF - the Delta variant significantly dodges the vaccines, then we are in for a world of pain. Indeed I don't know how we escape the hideous cycle of lockdowns. Perhaps we just accept that millions will die globally, and we reinforce health systems to cope?
Basically we accept that we have a new virulent disease maybe as bad as smallpox once was. And always the possibility of nastier variants yet.
OR this is the last big scare, and the fucking pox will fade away in a few weeks, in vaxed countries, because Delta isn't all that - and the UK example is "promising", so far - ie huge case numbers are not matched by deaths or ICU stats
Well also boosters start being administered in 6 weeks. Its a big downer though that not getting updated vaccines until next year.
This is the first time I've been properly, logically worried since about April, when it became blindingly obvious the vaccines were working
Since then I've presumed the virus was on the run, and even if victory was distant, it was assured
Now? I wobble. I know this is unlike me, but meh. The news is quietly ominous
The problem at the moment is we don't really even know what is going on...lots of cases, no official word on what percentage are unvaxxed, single dose, filly vaxxed (only from ZOE app), then hospitalisations, seems about 15% of the total might be fully vaxxed, but are also very old, have loads of other conditions? And the deaths, again how many are fully vaxxed and how many are 105 with a list of medical conditions as long as Boris kids birthday list?
Or is it across the board, still hospitalisations / deaths among double vaxxed not that old pretty fit and healthy 50-60 year olds?
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
I wouldn't say relaxed, but it's probably the least bad time for it to occur.
Spectator reported last night that Johnson got cold feet a few days ago but it was too late to stop the mobilisation of the trains as he had spent all that time going on about 'freedom day' and so on.
Personally I think we should focus on vaccinating everyone, children included and then open up. Failing that we should relax, enjoy life and hope for the best. But this "be free but be careful" and "we leave it to individual judgment" crap merely means that we're all exposed to the most reckless people we encounter, and when it goes pear-shaped it will be supposed to be our fault.
However, I do think Sajid Javid's statement on getting the bug strikes exactly the right note - concerned but not panicking, emphasising the importance of vaccination, thanking the NHS and not a hint of self-aggrandisment or party politics. I hope it stays mild and he's back in action soon.
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.
Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.
The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh ..
Yes, this is scary
IF - a monstrous IF - the Delta variant significantly dodges the vaccines, then we are in for a world of pain. Indeed I don't know how we escape the hideous cycle of lockdowns. Perhaps we just accept that millions will die globally, and we reinforce health systems to cope?
Basically we accept that we have a new virulent disease maybe as bad as smallpox once was. And always the possibility of nastier variants yet.
OR this is the last big scare, and the fucking pox will fade away in a few weeks, in vaxed countries, because Delta isn't all that - and the UK example is "promising", so far - ie huge case numbers are not matched by deaths or ICU stats
It doesn’t. We’d already see it here where delta is now the almost exclusive strain.
The vaccines are effective against Delta and not only that vaccines, now we have them, can be tweaked to take account of new variants.
Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
Except:
Alastair McLellan @HSJEditor Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8
But what's the alternative, go back to step 1 and stay there forever?
Max, I genuinely think some would do that, right now. Back to lockdown (the proper version) to get the cases under control. This is despite the absolute success of the vaccines. The most important dataset is the deaths from Covid. The current wave hardly registers at all. We will undoubtedly have some tough times for the hospitals and more deaths, but the truth is we need to hold our nerve, take personal responsibility and try our best to get through. And I really hope the jcvi gets round to the idea of vaccinating the 11 to 18 year old cohorts.
When we are locked down again this autumn it will be about the hospitals and not about the death rate.
I’m confident we won’t be locked down in the autumn. This exit wave was for seen, and frankly the virus is running out of the unvaccinated to infect. The Zoe data is showing the plateau, with the schools closing, the footy over, the fall seen in Scotland is heading south soon.
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
I wouldn't say relaxed, but it's probably the least bad time for it to occur.
Spectator reported last night that Johnson got cold feet a few days ago but it was too late to stop the mobilisation of the trains as he had spent all that time going on about 'freedom day' and so on.
Personally I think we should focus on vaccinating everyone, children included and then open up. Failing that we should relax, enjoy life and hope for the best. But this "be free but be careful" and "we leave it to individual judgment" crap merely means that we're all exposed to the most reckless people we encounter, and when it goes pear-shaped it will be supposed to be our fault.
However, I do think Sajid Javid's statement on getting the bug strikes exactly the right note - concerned but not panicking, emphasising the importance of vaccination, thanking the NHS and not a hint of self-aggrandisment or party politics. I hope it stays mild and he's back in action soon.
But that pushes the exit wave to October. How is that even close to sensible?
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.
Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.
The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh ..
Yes, this is scary
IF - a monstrous IF - the Delta variant significantly dodges the vaccines, then we are in for a world of pain. Indeed I don't know how we escape the hideous cycle of lockdowns. Perhaps we just accept that millions will die globally, and we reinforce health systems to cope?
Basically we accept that we have a new virulent disease maybe as bad as smallpox once was. And always the possibility of nastier variants yet.
OR this is the last big scare, and the fucking pox will fade away in a few weeks, in vaxed countries, because Delta isn't all that - and the UK example is "promising", so far - ie huge case numbers are not matched by deaths or ICU stats
It doesn’t. We’d already see it here where delta is now the almost exclusive strain.
The vaccines are effective against Delta and not only that vaccines, now we have them, can be tweaked to take account of new variants.
Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.
There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
Except:
Alastair McLellan @HSJEditor Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8
But what's the alternative, go back to step 1 and stay there forever?
Why do double-jabbed people need to self-isolate on return from France?
They shouldn't need to - its a stupid policy IMO.
If I have understood the reasoning it is because they could still pass on infection (although much less proportionally) and France has the Beta variant that seems to be worrying the medical bods.
The problem at the moment is we don't really even know what is going on...lots of cases, no official word on what percentage are unvaxxed, single dose, filly vaxxed (only from ZOE app), then hospitalisations, seems about 15% of the total might be fully vaxxed, but are also very old, have loads of other conditions? And the deaths, again how many are fully vaxxed and how many are 105 with a list of medical conditions as long as Boris kids birthday list?
Or is it across the board, still hospitalisations / deaths among double vaxxed not that old pretty fit and healthy 50-60 year olds?
In a way it's all academic. There are not any better options. We vaccinate as many people as possible obviously, but the NPIs are barely denting Delta's spread. We will have to live with covid no matter what the numbers say.
I don't think the backbenches would allow another lockdown, let alone cycles of them, given the low death rates we're experiencing.
Doesn't matter. Deaths aren't the key metric, it's the hospital numbers, about which the Government can and will panic if they continue to climb for long enough. And besides, even in the unlikely event of a Tory rebellion large enough to cancel the Government's majority, Labour will vote for any kind of lockdown measures that are proposed.
Comments
Viruses don’t go around naked. The aerosol droplets that it travels in are, what, 5 microns?
If cloth masks stop 3% of particles of 0.1 microns, then the proportion of particles of 5 micron size (fifty times bigger) that they stop should be quite considerably higher.
Of course, with motivated reasoning, this won’t slow down those who want masks to be ineffective; they’ll just gloss past it and grab another argument. And another. And another.
I will certainly be endeavouring to keep up at least one walk per day.
And I won't be buying salad from supermarkets. I will continue to get a box every week delivered from the local shop.
I shall do more conversations Online.
Hardly revolutionary or earth shattering.
But puts me firmly in the not status quo ante column.
Sad.
I've had to sit down and pour myself a drink because I've realised I'm in a majority for the first time in years.
So this is what agreeing with most people is like?
Very strange.
Which leaves our own dear prime minister. Such is the decadence of the Johnson regime, no one expects anything of it. Johnson has rich men pay for his holidays, his decorators and even the food on his plate. To say he is up for sale is to understate the case against him. He has already been bought.
Blair maybe? Churchill certainly. What is different now is that all sense of honour is gone. No need to resign if caught out. As Cohen says, good chaps have been replaced by bad actors.
Jeez
Peak Daily Deaths?
I'm going for about 250, in mid August...
A macabre game, but maybe it is one we have to play
The changes wraught by Covid won't go back in the bottle. No matter how determined some are. It's quite heartening to see the widespread acceptance. Even if not everyone will like all of it.
But I hold by my general view: schools are closing, the Euros are behind us and the sun is shining. That means that - even if it wasn't yesterday - cases will start declining tout suite.
But fatal in less than 0.01% of cases is not an illness that we need to stay locked up for.
There is no agreement as to which decade.
Well 1976 was peak national happiness, and in the Seventies a lot of working class peoples incomes Rose substantially, giving them access to consumer goods and lifestyles that were a major step up. "Whatever happened to the Likely Lads?" shows this aspect of the Seventies in the North very well.
I agree that there is a fundamental conflict in the Brexit voting population between a small but influential group of small state free marketerrs and a substantial but less represented group who quite like state intervention and tariffs. When levelling up involves the latter, I can see the free marketeers shafting their useful idiots.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/17/revealed-independent-sage-run-left-wing-group-including-anti/
It's the likes of @HYUFD who consistently repeat the mantra the Conservatives won the last election with an 80-seat majority which translates as "we're in power and we don't care what you think".
Indeed, plenty come on here and argue the consistent Conservative poll leads also invalidate the criticisms of Government.
What do you think?
I am predicting peak cases of about 87,000 on July 28
I then went on to speculate, perhaps unwisely, as to a Peak Death figure.
250 a day in mid August
Probably 0.2% to 0.3%.
Much better than it was due to vaccines but not a sniffle. Take care out there y'all.
Mix of exhaustion and several glasses of wine.
MoS_Politics
@MoS_Politics
·
38m
Boris’s health warning to Saj - back me against Rishi
It's contradictions are what will bring to and end the voting coalition and the majority c 2027-8.
I just hope I'm right, and live to see the day.
It's not a sniffle but at these levels it is certainly not Ebola, either
@JamesWard73
·
2h
in case you're in any doubt that this is mostly a football-linked spike in cases, see the gender divide in case growth rates over the last few days:
https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1416470141886402560
Oh Sweet Covid... da, da, da...
Not me - the Queen lives - but I can't recall if anybody claimed it.
It is fecking obvious cases will continue rising for a while - schools in England don't shut til next Friday, it's Freedom Day on Monday. We've got another week or so to go...
Alastair McLellan
@HSJEditor
Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8
https://twitter.com/HSJEditor/status/1416429557549240323
On a previous point, this is why New Zealand may find it very, very hard indeed to wean itself off isolation. The UK's current predicament is proof that, even in the fraction of the populace that accepts vaccination, it is some way short of 100% effective. Relying on the vaccines to get them out of this mess means accepting, at a guess, a couple of thousand deaths in a country that has so far suffered a sum total of 26. One can imagine how that will go down: "Whose Grannies do we kill in order to get our tourism industry back?"
"The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."
but
"The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084
There is a need for refreshment on nights like these, though I am indulging my newly acquired taste for home brewed kombucha.
I have become a devotee of Fearnley-Whittingstall. It really is an excellent drink on a hot night.
He will be very very tempted to go early once he starts to understand how bad the economics are looking.
Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.
The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh
..
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57874744
Johnson: my heart is with bonkers (hitch*ns)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/439e946c-e635-11eb-b253-d5dfe8b3d9fc?shareToken=0b51f8a991176ffff5b081cb44e28935 https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1416486081026052099/photo/1
An interesting idea for treatment in this article for the inflammatory condition.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/07/clues-about-mis-c-and-covid-19-kids/619447/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Exactly. Vaccines are our way out of this. We have to live with Covid as it is not going away.
IF - a monstrous IF - the Delta variant significantly dodges the vaccines, then we are in for a world of pain. Indeed I don't know how we escape the hideous cycle of lockdowns. Perhaps we just accept that millions will die globally, and we reinforce health systems to cope?
Basically we accept that we have a new virulent disease maybe as bad as smallpox once was. And always the possibility of nastier variants yet.
OR this is the last big scare, and the fucking pox will fade away in a few weeks, in vaxed countries, because Delta isn't all that - and the UK example is "promising", so far - ie huge case numbers are not matched by deaths or ICU stats
We have used science to turn Covid from a disease that might kill more than 1% of those it infects to somewhere around 0.1%. Still scary, especially if you are vulnerable, but not something to shut the economy down for again.
Had my second jab today - bit of a headache but nothing a couple of paracetamol wouldn't fix. I thoroughly encourage anyone who has any hesitancy at all to go and get jabbed. For your own sake, but also for all of ours. Jabs, and a bit of gumption in accepting an exit wave; they're our way out of this.
Since then I've presumed the virus was on the run, and even if victory was distant, it was assured
Now? I wobble. I know this is unlike me, but meh. The news is quietly ominous
Or is it across the board, still hospitalisations / deaths among double vaxxed not that old pretty fit and healthy 50-60 year olds?
However, I do think Sajid Javid's statement on getting the bug strikes exactly the right note - concerned but not panicking, emphasising the importance of vaccination, thanking the NHS and not a hint of self-aggrandisment or party politics. I hope it stays mild and he's back in action soon.
It really isn’t doom and gloom
https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/astrazeneca-vaccine-delta-variant/
Booster with mix and match approach is the best we have for the foreseeable future.