politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Charting the Populus “Monday effect” – the day the LAB lead
For a year now Populus has been issuing two online polls a week – on Monday where the fieldwork has taken place over the weekend and on a Friday when responses were from mid-week.
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Correlation
equalcausation!0 -
Good fortune for NPXMP to have a new thread, the old one having become quite awkward for him.0
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Eh ?
Are you telling me that people change their mind halfway through the week and then back again as to who they are going to vote for ?!0 -
Mike Smithson notes "General elections are on Thursday – so good for CON?"
Any general election day is good for the Conservatives as long as Ed leads the Labour Party.0 -
Alternatively they haven't made up their minds (or thought about it for that matter) until they're asked by the pollster, so what's varying is the probability that they'll jump one way or another.Pulpstar said:Eh ?
Are you telling me that people change their mind halfway through the week and then back again as to who they are going to vote for ?!
Or more likely, different people respond.0 -
Methinks their weightings aren't quite right. There shouldn't be any systematic variation of this sort.
BTW I doubt very much whether sentiment changes according to the day of week, so, no, it's not good news for the Tories, it's an indication that Populus hasn't got it quite right.0 -
^ This.Richard_Nabavi said:Methinks their weightings aren't quite right. There shouldn't be any systematic variation of this sort.
BTW I doubt very much whether sentiment changes according to the day of week, so, no, it's not good news for the Tories, it's an indication that Populus hasn't got it quite right.0 -
Root gone. 380-4.0
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Whens the Ashcroft poll out ?0
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AS tim would say: MOE0
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Populus has something seriously kooky still going on with it's Question 4/UKIP identifier
Q.4 Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?
What Populus basically believe is that the 3 odd % who voted UKIP at GE2010 somehow consistently form 10% of every single one of their poll samples.
I believe people are answering:
Q.4 Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say most closely identify yourself with?
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There is a cycle to the week.Pulpstar said:Eh ?
Are you telling me that people change their mind halfway through the week and then back again as to who they are going to vote for ?!
"According to researchers from the London School of Economics, our moods are at their brightest on Saturday, with the weekend feelgood factor continuing into Sunday."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1319713/Tuesday-miserable-day-week.html#ixzz38loZzXkd
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I think you're misunderestimating just how many people have false recall on how they voted in 2010.Pulpstar said:Populus has something seriously kooky still going on with it's Question 4/UKIP identifier
Q.4 Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?
What Populus basically believe is that the 3 odd % who voted UKIP at GE2010 somehow consistently form 10% of every single one of their poll samples.
I believe people are answering:
Q.4 Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say most closely identify yourself with?0 -
Last time I'll post the link, but don't forget to check my deeply insightful and not at all vague and rambling post-race analysis of Hungary:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/hungary-post-race-analysis.html0 -
England batting far too slowly. Sub 3 an over on this utter road of a pitch will probably take us to a draw, and India will be very happy with that.0
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Interesting. Thanks.Morris_Dancer said:Last time I'll post the link, but don't forget to check my deeply insightful and not at all vague and rambling post-race analysis of Hungary:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/hungary-post-race-analysis.html0 -
Thought that Buttler should have come in when Root went, to try and liven things up a bit!Pulpstar said:England batting far too slowly. Sub 3 an over on this utter road of a pitch will probably take us to a draw, and India will be very happy with that.
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King Cole, np. It was a fascinating race, and a pleasant surprise to have 2/2 winning tips.
Especially pleased as I considered 5 potential bets for the race and the only one that came off (Red Bull to top score) was the one I tipped.
Mr. Putney, I think, backed Hamilton for a podium at 3.7. Very good bet, and I bet he found the latter laps as enthralling as I did.0 -
Expecting Bell to up the tempo somewhat once he's got 100OldKingCole said:
Thought that Buttler should have come in when Root went, to try and liven things up a bit!Pulpstar said:England batting far too slowly. Sub 3 an over on this utter road of a pitch will probably take us to a draw, and India will be very happy with that.
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Bell's starting to time it now though - 6 and 4 in consecutive balls. Might as well push on to 550 or so as quickly as possible I reckon.0
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17 off this over so far! Was it, Pulpstar, something you said?
In fact it ended as 20 to Bell, 1 to Ali, and Bell’s 100!0 -
Just what the doctor ordered.OldKingCole said:17 off this over so far! Was it, Pulpstar, something you said?
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If the error bars on each share figure are +/- 3%, then the error bars on the lead will be at least as large, probably bigger.
Therefore, isn't this noise? Albeit rather fun noise.
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Damn, Ali out - despite what i said about 10 minuts ago he only really needed to rotate the strike to Bell !0
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No, I don't think it's noise. If it were noise, wouldn't there be only a probability of 0.5 ** 7, i.e less than 1%, that the Monday lead would come out bigger than previous Friday lead seven times out of seven? (Or twice that, if you include the possibility of the Monday lead coming out consistently smaller).Jonathan said:If the error bars on each share figure are +/- 3%, then the error bars on the lead will be at least as large, probably bigger.
Therefore, isn't this noise? Albeit rather fun noise.0 -
Come on, India!0
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Odd, but not impossible, that all the errors work the same way!Jonathan said:If the error bars on each share figure are +/- 3%, then the error bars on the lead will be at least as large, probably bigger.
Therefore, isn't this noise? Albeit rather fun noise.0 -
Dr. Prasannan, does your Tebbit chip need replacing?
[Rewatching Farscape, weeknights at 7pm on Pick. Dr. Prasannan's Tebbit chip reminds me of Harvey].0 -
Mr Dancer.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Prasannan, does your Tebbit chip need replacing?
[Rewatching Farscape, weeknights at 7pm on Pick. Dr. Prasannan's Tebbit chip reminds me of Harvey].
It can only be attributable to human error
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Baa! There am I deeply engrossed in a discussion on the political effects of the Act of Settlement 1701 and the effect of the Electress Sophia's death, only to find out that someone started a new thread an hour ago. Can't people who start a new thread just take thirty seconds to post a note on the old one to that effect. Mr. Eagles always does.0
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Buttler looks out to me
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FPT - NP Chinese trains - a friend in Hong Kong who is a VERY picky traveller (Cathay is never good enough) is a big fan of the Chinese bullet trains and takes them by preference to flying. In addition to standard First, there is also apparently a "super first" used by party officials and red princes at the front of the train - networking opportunity?0
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That ball didn't bounce - England saved by lens foreshortening there.0
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Glad I'm not umpiringJonnyJimmy said:Buttler looks out to me
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It was, but if those decisions are reviewed then lens foreshortening comes (wrongly) to the Batsman's rescueJonnyJimmy said:Buttler looks out to me
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On a Monday people are still a bit more cheerful and happy go lucky. Hey - so what if Labour screw the economy again? That was a fab barbecue last night.
By Thu the bills are on the doormat, job worries re-emerge and people start thinking 'god we'll be rogered if those muppets get back in'.0 -
How bloody odd!
For this trend to be so consistent and occur over such a long period of time, if I were running Populus I'd be taking a very close look at any differences in how the "Monday" and "Friday" polls were organised, collated and reported, comparing one with the other.
This smacks of "human differential" in some form or other.0 -
Mr. Putney, worth mentioning there is a chance it's just coincidence. I don't think it is, but things are unlikely can happen.
Hamilton getting on the podium at 3.7, for instance.0 -
I always enjoy a fine pie and look forward to the Miliband Concession Pie at around 1.30am on that very day .... to be consumed with a decent pint of Ruddles.surbiton said:
Are you making room for the pie that will be thrust on your face , Friday, 8 May 2015 ?JackW said:Mike Smithson notes "General elections are on Thursday – so good for CON?"
Any general election day is good for the Conservatives as long as Ed leads the Labour Party.
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Only thing I can think of was the same reason put forward to explain Labour doing better on polling conducted on Bank Holiday weekends - more affluent voters tend to be more likely to go away for the weekend. This will be more pronounced in the summer months. Given that polls are weighted to an extent by social class this doesn't necessarily work, but maybe there is enough of an effect amongst those who are better off within class categories.0
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Crossover on Friday then0
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The overal run rate is now 3.13 per over, while that for the last 10 overs is 5.4, according to cricinfo.0
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Something systematic in the sampling.
Are the people sampled midweek from the same population as those sampled on weekends?0 -
In any event, Populus should have a look at it.geoffw said:Something systematic in the sampling.
Are the people sampled midweek from the same population as those sampled on weekends?0 -
Morris, by virtue of his finishing 6th, your ridiculing my suggestion of a Raikkonen podium finish proved somewhat overdone.
And yes, it was a great race.0 -
is there no similar trend in yougov? if not, why not, i wonder?0
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Yup, smartish too if they value their reputation.OldKingCole said:
In any event, Populus should have a look at it.0 -
Ha ha ..... Patrick, you certainly have a way with words!Patrick said:On a Monday people are still a bit more cheerful and happy go lucky. Hey - so what if Labour screw the economy again? That was a fab barbecue last night.
By Thu the bills are on the doormat, job worries re-emerge and people start thinking 'god we'll be rogered if those muppets get back in'.0 -
A couple of things to note.
The one crossover poll with populus this year was on a Monday.
Last year I noted a trend that YouGov for the Sunday Times generally had the largest leads of the week for yougov.
The fieldwork for those polls is mostly Friday and a bit of Thursday.
This trend isn't happening this year.0 -
Mr. Putney, in my defence, he didn't get anywhere near a podium
Impressive drive from 17th, however.0 -
Interested in fate of Middle East #Christians? Not if you're @CNN and company. pic.twitter.com/spLqd0ZOfV
— Anne Bayefsky (@AnneBayefsky) July 28, 20140 -
In an ideal world England would look to average 5 an over for 20 overs after tea and then have about a dozen overs at the Indians tonight.OldKingCole said:The overal run rate is now 3.13 per over, while that for the last 10 overs is 5.4, according to cricinfo.
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I don’t think that, necessarily ithe difference between the two parties’ support. Could be more to do with small shifts major to minor and vice versa.TheScreamingEagles said:A couple of things to note.
The one crossover poll with populus this year was on a Monday.
Last year I noted a trend that YouGov for the Sunday Times generally had the largest leads of the week for yougov.
The fieldwork for those polls is mostly Friday and a bit of Thursday.
This trend isn't happening this year.0 -
Agree. Whether Cook will, of course ..........DavidL said:
In an ideal world England would look to average 5 an over for 20 overs after tea and then have about a dozen overs at the Indians tonight.OldKingCole said:The overal run rate is now 3.13 per over, while that for the last 10 overs is 5.4, according to cricinfo.
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@LordAshcroft: Ashcroft National Poll, 25-27 July: CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.
Con + 5
Lab-1
LD + 2
UKIP -3
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Sleazy broken Lab and UKIP on the slide.
Virtuous brilliant coalition parties surging.
Or just another typical Ashcroft poll.0 -
Mr. Eagles, Ashcroft's polling entertainingly bouncy.
The Greens must be disappointed that the yellow bird is soaring further away from them.0 -
Does anyone think it is the contract that at least one of the major parties has to move by 5% in every Ashcroft poll? It is just ridiculous.0
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In more important news. I'm off to Glasgow to watch the hockey tomorrow.
Are there any local customs I should be aware of, lest I get into trouble0 -
In a positional sense, he missed the podium by 3 places in a 22 man field ....... this was a 16/1 bet and I did make the point that I didn't expect to collect.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Putney, in my defence, he didn't get anywhere near a podium
Impressive drive from 17th, however.
Strewth!
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Imran Sherwani is a hero of mine.0
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@TheScreamingEagles
Never over chill the Buckfast!0 -
Watch out for those emerging Greens - they could hurt Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:@LordAshcroft: Ashcroft National Poll, 25-27 July: CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.
Con + 5
Lab-1
LD + 2
UKIP -30 -
Some England football / rugby fans wear a Knights Templar chain mail outfit with the red cross on a white background tabard over the top - I'd recommend you don't.TheScreamingEagles said:In more important news. I'm off to Glasgow to watch the hockey tomorrow.
Are there any local customs I should be aware of, lest I get into trouble0 -
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Mr. Putney, aye, but he was aided by the Force Indias both crashing out, maybe Gutierrez (he was 8th when he retired not sure if he was ahead of Raikkonen), Vettel cocking up by flat spotting new tyres with a spin, and Bottas being a bit unlucky with the safety car.
I do admit, Raikkonen finished far higher up the field than I expected. The Ferrari was pretty strong around Hungary, which may help it elsewhere.0 -
Anyone else reckon the judge will turn out to be an Espanyol or Real Madrid fan?
A Spanish court will push ahead with prosecuting the Barcelona forward Lionel Messi for alleged tax evasion despite a recommendation from the public prosecutor the charges be dismissed.
The prosecutor argued in June that Messi’s father Jorge was responsible for the family’s finances and not the four-times World Player of the Year.
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jul/28/lionel-messi-tax-barcelona0 -
The Green voteshare will be heavily squeezed (mostly by Labour) at the next GE.peter_from_putney said:
Watch out for those emerging Greens - they could hurt Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:@LordAshcroft: Ashcroft National Poll, 25-27 July: CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.
Con + 5
Lab-1
LD + 2
UKIP -3
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On the Ashcroft poll - Interesting that for the question about things that might happen in next 5 years, more said Taxes would be more likely to rise for people "like you" under the Tories. 34% v 24% picking Labour.
The other questions break down pretty much as you'd expect.0 -
@Richard_Nabavi
"However, property prices were still 6.4% higher compared with a year ago"
How does that compare with the pay increases of those people who are trying to buy them?
Bites your arse more like?0 -
I've worn my England rugby shirts in Dublin and Edinburgh with no problems.Patrick said:
Some England football / rugby fans wear a Knights Templar chain mail outfit with the red cross on a white background tabard over the top - I'd recommend you don't.TheScreamingEagles said:In more important news. I'm off to Glasgow to watch the hockey tomorrow.
Are there any local customs I should be aware of, lest I get into trouble
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Con respondents 190/1007 -> 199/1007 10/10 certainty to vote up from 65% -> 70%.DavidL said:Does anyone think it is the contract that at least one of the major parties has to move by 5% in every Ashcroft poll? It is just ridiculous.
COuple of movements like that all the same way within their own bands of error and all of a sudden you have a movement outside the normal MoE...
If you look at the polls through a prism of a fundamental 3.5% lead for Labour then they all sort of make sense.
And UKIP are miles ahead of the Lib Dems, its not actually that close at the moment.0 -
If anyone says "See you (Jimmy)" step well back.TheScreamingEagles said:In more important news. I'm off to Glasgow to watch the hockey tomorrow.
Are there any local customs I should be aware of, lest I get into trouble
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You clearly have buster gonads. Respect!TheScreamingEagles said:
I've worn my England rugby shirts in Dublin and Edinburgh with no problems.Patrick said:
Some England football / rugby fans wear a Knights Templar chain mail outfit with the red cross on a white background tabard over the top - I'd recommend you don't.TheScreamingEagles said:In more important news. I'm off to Glasgow to watch the hockey tomorrow.
Are there any local customs I should be aware of, lest I get into trouble0 -
''Another Labour attack line bites the dust:''
I'm convinced it would help the tories greatly if the market cooled further, giving more people at least some sort of shot at owning their home.0 -
Assuming UKPR updates its poll averaging before then (currently based on data up to 23.7.14) then Stephen Fisher's Friday projection on which it is based could prove very interesting.0
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TSE - it must have been the heavy overcoat which saved you.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've worn my England rugby shirts in Dublin and Edinburgh with no problems.Patrick said:
Some England football / rugby fans wear a Knights Templar chain mail outfit with the red cross on a white background tabard over the top - I'd recommend you don't.TheScreamingEagles said:In more important news. I'm off to Glasgow to watch the hockey tomorrow.
Are there any local customs I should be aware of, lest I get into trouble0 -
I think it was England were shellacked saved me from a fate worse than a discussion about electoral voting systems.peter_from_putney said:
TSE - it must have been the heavy overcoat which saved you.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've worn my England rugby shirts in Dublin and Edinburgh with no problems.Patrick said:
Some England football / rugby fans wear a Knights Templar chain mail outfit with the red cross on a white background tabard over the top - I'd recommend you don't.TheScreamingEagles said:In more important news. I'm off to Glasgow to watch the hockey tomorrow.
Are there any local customs I should be aware of, lest I get into trouble
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It depends on the region, of course. That 6.4% includes the special case of London.Smarmeron said:"However, property prices were still 6.4% higher compared with a year ago"
How does that compare with the pay increases of those people who are trying to buy them?
But mostly, prices have risen modestly over the last couple of years, partially (but not completely) reversing the big falls of the crash. So yes, houses are a bit more affordable than they were under Labour: even including London, the average house price in England and Wales is now £172,011 compared with the peak of £181,466 in November 2007:
http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/media/all-releases/press-releases/2014/market-trend-data-june-2014#sthash.WZNwif9N.dpuf
So we have had a modest correction, much needed to get the market moving again and encourage housebuilders to build houses. At the same time we obviously don't want a bubble, and as you can see we haven't got one. It has been nicely judged.
Longer term, as everyone agrees, what we need is more building in the right places. That is now beginning to happen, after the long drought of the Labour years.0 -
Absolutely no sign of any acceleration from England. Does not look like an early declaration is being thought of.0
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Er, housebuilding is below pre-crash levels under Labour and way below the levels needed to keep pace with population growth.Richard_Nabavi said:
Longer term, as everyone agrees, what we need is more building in the right places. That is now beginning to happen, after the long drought of the Labour years.
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Ashcroft National Poll: Con 32%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 14%, Green 6%
Jul 28, 2014 03:59 pm
Still no croosover. Hic´0 -
''Interesting that for the question about things that might happen in next 5 years, more said Taxes would be more likely to rise for people "like you" under the Tories. 34% v 24% picking Labour. ''
Yes I noticed that too. Quite strange really.0 -
33 in last 3 overs...DavidL said:Absolutely no sign of any acceleration from England. Does not look like an early declaration is being thought of.
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Yes, but now increasing fast. You're right that it's not enough.Neil said:Er, housebuilding is below pre-crash levels under Labour and way below the levels needed to keep pace with population growth.
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England accelerating now. Personally on this pitch I'd bat on tomorrow morning and try to score 700+ and collapse India under sheer weight of runs. Declaring early isn't always the most positive option; you just have to score the runs again, often more slowly, in the second innings. However that goes against the modern fashion.0
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Ye that's what I'd do - Sporting Index is convinced Cook will declare at 550, just slogging till we are all out once we hit 550 would be a better option though.Tissue_Price said:England accelerating now. Personally on this pitch I'd bat on tomorrow morning and try to score 700+ and collapse India under sheer weight of runs. Declaring early isn't always the most positive option; you just have to score the runs again, often more slowly, in the second innings. However that goes against the modern fashion.
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At least by batting again we can give our bowlers a few hours off. If we bat for 700 by lunch tomorrow we'd possibly spend the next 8 sessions in the field which would rather tire out the bowlersTissue_Price said:England accelerating now. Personally on this pitch I'd bat on tomorrow morning and try to score 700+ and collapse India under sheer weight of runs. Declaring early isn't always the most positive option; you just have to score the runs again, often more slowly, in the second innings. However that goes against the modern fashion.
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Would that be more complacent than the goverment that let 4 million people into the country and did sod all about housing and infrastructure ?Smarmeron said:And as if by magic, the IMF punctures complacency.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/43508/0 -
LOL!Smarmeron said:And as if by magic, the IMF punctures complacency.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/43508/
IMF: On housing, the board said that the Government needed to be ready to reform the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme if house prices continued to surge.
Statistics released today: Seven out of 10 regions of England and Wales recorded month-on-month falls in house prices in June, overall prices unchanged, so prices aren't continuing to surge.0 -
Arsenal sign Calum Chambers for £16m. That's £25m on right backs this summer after letting our first choice go for free!
Not looking good for Carl Jenkinson... Seems a lovely lad, and is an Arsenal fan but I never rated him... A mate of mine works with someone who went to school with him, and reckons when they played 5aside, Jenkinson was about 6th pick!
If he goes then at least his last game for the Gunners saw him get his only league goal for the club0 -
"housebuilding is below pre-crash levels under Labour "Neil said:
Er, housebuilding is below pre-crash levels under Labour and way below the levels needed to keep pace with population growth.Richard_Nabavi said:
Longer term, as everyone agrees, what we need is more building in the right places. That is now beginning to happen, after the long drought of the Labour years.
On planet Zog, possibly. Down here is the biggest housing boom I have seen in my lifetime. The slums of tomorrow are being thrown up everywhere one looks. As for building enough new houses to keep up with population growth, forget it. With net immigration officially running at 200,000 a year and all the other causes of new households, it cannot be done.0 -
Yes. You'd think everyone would remember the Conservatives putting up VAT.taffys said:''Interesting that for the question about things that might happen in next 5 years, more said Taxes would be more likely to rise for people "like you" under the Tories. 34% v 24% picking Labour. ''
Yes I noticed that too. Quite strange really.
And lying about it during the election campaigns in 2010 and 1979.0 -
That was the argument used on Sky at lunchtime.JonnyJimmy said:
At least by batting again we can give our bowlers a few hours off. If we bat for 700 by lunch tomorrow we'd possibly spend the next 8 sessions in the field which would rather tire out the bowlersTissue_Price said:England accelerating now. Personally on this pitch I'd bat on tomorrow morning and try to score 700+ and collapse India under sheer weight of runs. Declaring early isn't always the most positive option; you just have to score the runs again, often more slowly, in the second innings. However that goes against the modern fashion.
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''With net immigration officially running at 200,000 a year and all the other causes of new households, it cannot be done. ''
Perhaps more could be done to make England bigger??
I feel this is one area where the government have really fallen down.0
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