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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Charting the Populus “Monday effect” – the day the LAB lead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Charting the Populus “Monday effect” – the day the LAB lead is generally up on the previous Friday
For a year now Populus has been issuing two online polls a week – on Monday where the fieldwork has taken place over the weekend and on a Friday when responses were from mid-week.
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equalcausation!Are you telling me that people change their mind halfway through the week and then back again as to who they are going to vote for ?!
Any general election day is good for the Conservatives as long as Ed leads the Labour Party.
Or more likely, different people respond.
BTW I doubt very much whether sentiment changes according to the day of week, so, no, it's not good news for the Tories, it's an indication that Populus hasn't got it quite right.
Q.4 Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?
What Populus basically believe is that the 3 odd % who voted UKIP at GE2010 somehow consistently form 10% of every single one of their poll samples.
I believe people are answering:
Q.4 Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say most closely identify yourself with?
"According to researchers from the London School of Economics, our moods are at their brightest on Saturday, with the weekend feelgood factor continuing into Sunday."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1319713/Tuesday-miserable-day-week.html#ixzz38loZzXkd
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/hungary-post-race-analysis.html
Especially pleased as I considered 5 potential bets for the race and the only one that came off (Red Bull to top score) was the one I tipped.
Mr. Putney, I think, backed Hamilton for a podium at 3.7. Very good bet, and I bet he found the latter laps as enthralling as I did.
In fact it ended as 20 to Bell, 1 to Ali, and Bell’s 100!
Therefore, isn't this noise? Albeit rather fun noise.
[Rewatching Farscape, weeknights at 7pm on Pick. Dr. Prasannan's Tebbit chip reminds me of Harvey].
It can only be attributable to human error
By Thu the bills are on the doormat, job worries re-emerge and people start thinking 'god we'll be rogered if those muppets get back in'.
For this trend to be so consistent and occur over such a long period of time, if I were running Populus I'd be taking a very close look at any differences in how the "Monday" and "Friday" polls were organised, collated and reported, comparing one with the other.
This smacks of "human differential" in some form or other.
Hamilton getting on the podium at 3.7, for instance.
Are the people sampled midweek from the same population as those sampled on weekends?
And yes, it was a great race.
The one crossover poll with populus this year was on a Monday.
Last year I noted a trend that YouGov for the Sunday Times generally had the largest leads of the week for yougov.
The fieldwork for those polls is mostly Friday and a bit of Thursday.
This trend isn't happening this year.
Impressive drive from 17th, however.
Con + 5
Lab-1
LD + 2
UKIP -3
Virtuous brilliant coalition parties surging.
Or just another typical Ashcroft poll.
The Greens must be disappointed that the yellow bird is soaring further away from them.
Are there any local customs I should be aware of, lest I get into trouble
Strewth!
Never over chill the Buckfast!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28521584
I do admit, Raikkonen finished far higher up the field than I expected. The Ferrari was pretty strong around Hungary, which may help it elsewhere.
A Spanish court will push ahead with prosecuting the Barcelona forward Lionel Messi for alleged tax evasion despite a recommendation from the public prosecutor the charges be dismissed.
The prosecutor argued in June that Messi’s father Jorge was responsible for the family’s finances and not the four-times World Player of the Year.
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jul/28/lionel-messi-tax-barcelona
The other questions break down pretty much as you'd expect.
"However, property prices were still 6.4% higher compared with a year ago"
How does that compare with the pay increases of those people who are trying to buy them?
Bites your arse more like?
COuple of movements like that all the same way within their own bands of error and all of a sudden you have a movement outside the normal MoE...
If you look at the polls through a prism of a fundamental 3.5% lead for Labour then they all sort of make sense.
And UKIP are miles ahead of the Lib Dems, its not actually that close at the moment.
I'm convinced it would help the tories greatly if the market cooled further, giving more people at least some sort of shot at owning their home.
But mostly, prices have risen modestly over the last couple of years, partially (but not completely) reversing the big falls of the crash. So yes, houses are a bit more affordable than they were under Labour: even including London, the average house price in England and Wales is now £172,011 compared with the peak of £181,466 in November 2007:
http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/media/all-releases/press-releases/2014/market-trend-data-june-2014#sthash.WZNwif9N.dpuf
So we have had a modest correction, much needed to get the market moving again and encourage housebuilders to build houses. At the same time we obviously don't want a bubble, and as you can see we haven't got one. It has been nicely judged.
Longer term, as everyone agrees, what we need is more building in the right places. That is now beginning to happen, after the long drought of the Labour years.
That's why Dave had a special meeting about the housing stats due before the election.
They decided to use the "Navabi gambit" ... Rearrange the figures and hope no one notices.
Jul 28, 2014 03:59 pm
Still no croosover. Hic´
Yes I noticed that too. Quite strange really.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/43508/
IMF: On housing, the board said that the Government needed to be ready to reform the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme if house prices continued to surge.
Statistics released today: Seven out of 10 regions of England and Wales recorded month-on-month falls in house prices in June, overall prices unchanged, so prices aren't continuing to surge.
Not looking good for Carl Jenkinson... Seems a lovely lad, and is an Arsenal fan but I never rated him... A mate of mine works with someone who went to school with him, and reckons when they played 5aside, Jenkinson was about 6th pick!
If he goes then at least his last game for the Gunners saw him get his only league goal for the club
On planet Zog, possibly. Down here is the biggest housing boom I have seen in my lifetime. The slums of tomorrow are being thrown up everywhere one looks. As for building enough new houses to keep up with population growth, forget it. With net immigration officially running at 200,000 a year and all the other causes of new households, it cannot be done.
And lying about it during the election campaigns in 2010 and 1979.
Perhaps more could be done to make England bigger??
I feel this is one area where the government have really fallen down.