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Looking at the discussion about polling accuracy and the expected drop in UKIP share in the run up to the GE.
It is worth noting that the ICM poll for the Guardian in July 2009 - 10 months before the last GE - had UKIP on 3%. It does not appear there was much in the way of a drop in supoprt for them between that poll and the GE itself.
http://www.icmresearch.com/pdfs/2009_july_guardian_poll.pdf0 -
@bigjohnowls
Don't be silly. It is Mike's view, not "PB rule 1", that ICM is the gold standard. He can defend that view for himself if he wants to, but I believe he held it prior to 2010 and that he might think you were putting quite a lot of weight on a single data point.0 -
NOP - Who were then dropped by the Independent for ComResPulpstar said:Who was top scorer in 2005 ?
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I think that is right. But I think you are wrong to conflate ethnicity with multiculturalism.SouthamObserver said:
I was just responding to the second half of SeanF's final sentence:Richard_Tyndall said:
I honestly do not believe that UKIP is about ethnicity. However much their opponents might try to paint them as such, as a party they have consistently maintained a position that Britishness is nothing to do with colour or ethnic background but about acceptance of shared values.SouthamObserver said:
Absolutely. I have many similar worries. But I may have different solutions. I would argue also that you can be part of a growing minority population and a UKIP supporter as well and that UKIP should not be about ethnicity.
They worry about multiculturalism becoming ever more entrenched, and governments of all stripes prioritising the interests of growing minority populations over their own descendants.0 -
I generally post the figures on here around 10pm.peter_from_putney said:
Thanks TSE, I'm not into twitter which probably explains my problem! I'm aware that this poll appears on YG's website at 6.00am (sharp!) the following morning.TheScreamingEagles said:
Via the sun politics Twitter Feed at 10pm and 6am the following morning on the YouGov website.peter_from_putney said:Silly question maybe, but how does one access the daily YouGov/Sun VI poll, usually released around 10pm, or is this only available from behind the paywall?
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So not been most accurate at a GE on main two parties since 2001?TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting the Lib Dem share correct/nearest is an achievement given the Cleggasm.bigjohnowls said:ICM is the Gold Standard (PB rule 1)
ICM was the most accurate at GE2010 (refer to PB rule 1 above)
Well at GE 2010 it understimated Lab by 2% and Con by 1%
ComRes and Populus got the Con % spot on and were both only 2% wrong on Lab. Mori got both main parties within 1%
Despite that PB Rule 1 applies because ICM was less wrong on LD %
Full details on main 2 parties differences between each poll and the actual result?
ICM Guardian: Con -1; Lab -2:
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 0; Lab -2:
Angus Reid/PB: Con -1; Lab -6;
Populus/Times: Con 0; Lab -2;
YouGov/Sun: Con -2; Lab -2;
Harris/Daily Mail: Con -2; Lab -1;
MORI/London Evening Standard: Con -1; Lab -1;
But apparently PB rule 1 is not to be challenged.
Plus ICM were the most accurate at GEs 1997, 2001 and the AV referendum was spot on0 -
Not quite.bigjohnowls said:
So not been most accurate at a GE on main two parties since 2001?TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting the Lib Dem share correct/nearest is an achievement given the Cleggasm.bigjohnowls said:ICM is the Gold Standard (PB rule 1)
ICM was the most accurate at GE2010 (refer to PB rule 1 above)
Well at GE 2010 it understimated Lab by 2% and Con by 1%
ComRes and Populus got the Con % spot on and were both only 2% wrong on Lab. Mori got both main parties within 1%
Despite that PB Rule 1 applies because ICM was less wrong on LD %
Full details on main 2 parties differences between each poll and the actual result?
ICM Guardian: Con -1; Lab -2:
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 0; Lab -2:
Angus Reid/PB: Con -1; Lab -6;
Populus/Times: Con 0; Lab -2;
YouGov/Sun: Con -2; Lab -2;
Harris/Daily Mail: Con -2; Lab -1;
MORI/London Evening Standard: Con -1; Lab -1;
But apparently PB rule 1 is not to be challenged.
Plus ICM were the most accurate at GEs 1997, 2001 and the AV referendum was spot on
Put it this way, from a betting viewpoint, it is very profitable following ICM's Westminster polls.0 -
Looking at the 2014 LE results I note that they were in London and far smaller area wise than the 2013 elections, also 2013 had the strong UKIP areas of the east coast (Kent, Essex, Lincolnshire)
UKIP achieved 19% in the 2013 LEs and 17% in the 2014 LEs - just going by eye on the map and noting London in particular which is a weak UKIP area was in 2014 I find it difficult to believe that there was an underlying shift away from UKIP as the NNEVS suggest (Fwiw I think 2013 NNEVS was too HIGH for UKIP). Weighting assumptions about UKIP support are tricky...
ICM does not have any UKIP weighting issue so far as I can tell, the raw figures are barely adjusted most months which gives me a degree of confidence that their sample is random *enough* to pick out the true UKIP support.
Turnout at a General Election will of course be alot higher than at LEs and I expect that to work to Labour's advantage and UKIP's disadvantage somewhat (Nationally).
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Noting the hoohah around LibDem David Ward and his comments on bombing Israel makes me wonder: Is an instinctive Anti-Israeli / Anti-Semitic mindset now a default setting on the left? (p.s. this is NOT a pro-Israel post but a genuine question if anyone on the left can now openly voice any pro-Israel opinion without immediately being sent to Coventry).0
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Retirement isn't everything is cracked up to be resorted to watching Kojak, Alias Smith and Jones and checking 2001 polling accuracy. TSE is right about Gold Standard being closest in 2001 beat Mori by 0.3%.
Will check out 1997 after the lollipop licker episode0 -
Mike asks: Could it be that those oldies currently backing Farage’s party are in good health and are reasonably well off.
I don't know about their health, but they are not in general very well off:
23% of UKIP supporters live in households whose total income exceeds £40,000, compared with 38% of Tories and 28% of Labour voters.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/03/05/analysis-ukip-voters/
Now, it is true that you need to be a bit careful interpreting this data because it is partly a reflection of the age profile - in that YouGov analysis, 71% of UKIP supporters were over 50 and thus many of them will be retired, with corresponding lower household income than people in employment. It may be that they see themselves as relatively comfortable, but, even so, it does seem a bit odd that they are not more worried about pensions and the economy generally.
Maybe they should be.0 -
The Times are reporting that the Tory MP has Nadhim Zahwai has contacted the police saying David Ward is encouraging Terrorism as per the Terrorism act of 2006.Patrick said:Noting the hoohah around LibDem David Ward and his comments on bombing Israel makes me wonder: Is an instinctive Anti-Israeli / Anti-Semitic mindset now a default setting on the left? (p.s. this is NOT a pro-Israel post but a genuine question if anyone on the left can now openly voice any pro-Israel opinion without immediately being sent to Coventry).
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Where I think ICM is very good is that it very rarely show's extreme polling numbers.
Where other pollsters will show 20-30% leads for an individual party (at times between 92 and 97 Labour's was going 30%+ with some pollsters) ICM will usually stay more within sensible ranges.
In this Parliament it's biggest Labour lead has been 12%. In the last Parliament it's biggest Conservative lead was 20%.
This means that over time it's less effected by swingback and comes up more consistent than most pollsters, I think.
That's my take on it anyway.
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June 2014 was globally the warmest June ever recorded (records date back to 1880), following the warmest May ever recorded according to NOAA.Richard_Tyndall said:
And unlike most of the global warming models, it has the added benefit of being accurate.Neil said:
Let's just pretend that global warming isn't happening...
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Not sure - Can anyone on the right put forward a pro-Palestinian cause ? (Genuine question - like yours).Patrick said:Noting the hoohah around LibDem David Ward and his comments on bombing Israel makes me wonder: Is an instinctive Anti-Israeli / Anti-Semitic mindset now a default setting on the left? (p.s. this is NOT a pro-Israel post but a genuine question if anyone on the left can now openly voice any pro-Israel opinion without immediately being sent to Coventry).
Shrinking violet left winger @SeanT of this parish is reasonably pro-Palestinian. Is he the exception that proves the rule ?
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If "global warming" means glorious weather like we're having this summer (and had last summer) bring it on!murali_s said:
June 2014 was globally the warmest June ever recorded (records date back to 1880), following the warmest May ever recorded according to NOAA.Richard_Tyndall said:
And unlike most of the global warming models, it has the added benefit of being accurate.Neil said:
Let's just pretend that global warming isn't happening...
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You don't have to believe that for my point to be valid at all... A vast amount of ukip supporters come from uneducated, poor backgrounds, a bigger proportion than for any other party. No one said they all had to, or that everyone else had to be from a metropolitan eliteSouthamObserver said:
Only if you believe that UKIP supporters are all peasants and those of other parties are all bourgeois. I don't.isam said:
What you're saying comes across as saying it's just as valid for the bourgeoise to call the peasants peasants, as vice versa.SouthamObserver said:
I agree. But UKIPers also tend to dismiss their opponents as the sneering metropolitan elite. It's the same kind of thing in my view.TOPPING said:
But they are not treated as other political parties. They are (often) treated as loons, etc.SouthamObserver said:
My response is merely that UKIP supporters are driven by the same instincts and desires as the supporters of other political parties. I am opposed to multiculturalism on the grounds that it is clear to me that some cultures - or, more accurately, ways of looking at and engaging with the world - are clearly better than others.TOPPING said:
I have absolutely no truck with UKIP given their lazy decision to adopt a quasi-NF/BNP tone in their election literature which I found truly shocking.SouthamObserver said:
They care about what they dislike and what makes them feel better, just like the rest of us.CD13 said:Nick,
"FWIW I find Kippers and Greens the least interested in bread and butter issues - they are mostly
But.
Your response, although of course perceptive as usual, at the same time confirms their concerns that the orthodoxy is to have a multi-culti come-all-ye UK where there are few if any immigration controls and that the UK, thereby, will be changed irrevocably as a result.
Any deviation from that orthodoxy warrants the fruitcake description.
The Kippers have a legitimate desire not to have their country, for which read neighbourhood, changed out of all recognition. Sam has articulated this well on here many times and he is an ex-Labourite for heaven's sake.
Kippers might ask where one draws the line wrt immigration and they would be right to do so.
What infuriates them (and I agree the sneering charge of "metropolitan elite" is facile) is that no one allows them to ask that question.0 -
I agree with David Anderson here:TheScreamingEagles said:
The Times are reporting that the Tory MP has Nadhim Zahwai has contacted the police saying David Ward is encouraging Terrorism as per the Terrorism act of 2006.Patrick said:Noting the hoohah around LibDem David Ward and his comments on bombing Israel makes me wonder: Is an instinctive Anti-Israeli / Anti-Semitic mindset now a default setting on the left? (p.s. this is NOT a pro-Israel post but a genuine question if anyone on the left can now openly voice any pro-Israel opinion without immediately being sent to Coventry).
David Anderson QC said the legal definition of terrorism was too widely drawn and called on Parliament to revisit the legislation.
"The problem is that our definition has begun to catch people that it was never really intended to catch," Mr Anderson told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.
Cont.
http://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2014/07/22/watchdog-warns-on-anti-terror-laws/
That would be a crackers way to use the Terrorism act.0 -
...and FWIW I don't think the Israel / Palestine issue will EVER get resolved unless two fundamental truths are acknowledged and resolved:
1. Israel has a right to exist.
Whatever the correct borders, whatever the voting rights, Israel exists - and has a right to. Unless and until the Muslim world all accepts this and acts accordingly there can be no peace.
2. Israel is occupying land that really is not theirs.
The Palesitinans have a right to exist and a state of their own too. Unless and until the Palestinians have a state of their own with mutually acceptable borders (which will necessarily involve Israeli withdrawal from some areas, esp on the West Bank) there can be no peace.
Personally I hold out almost no hope whatever that the Muslim world will accept 1 or that Israel can enforce 2 without civil war within Israel (and those settler communities are the hardest cases you can imagine - make US 'Preppers' look like nuns). It will go on and on and on....0 -
Interesting to see how his comments and LAB condemnation goes down with his Bradford East electorate. My view is will probably be popular but LAB will still regain Bradford East.Patrick said:Noting the hoohah around LibDem David Ward and his comments on bombing Israel makes me wonder: Is an instinctive Anti-Israeli / Anti-Semitic mindset now a default setting on the left? (p.s. this is NOT a pro-Israel post but a genuine question if anyone on the left can now openly voice any pro-Israel opinion without immediately being sent to Coventry).
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I love the way that one LD MP who sits on the government benches is de facto "the left".Patrick said:Noting the hoohah around LibDem David Ward and his comments on bombing Israel makes me wonder: Is an instinctive Anti-Israeli / Anti-Semitic mindset now a default setting on the left? (p.s. this is NOT a pro-Israel post but a genuine question if anyone on the left can now openly voice any pro-Israel opinion without immediately being sent to Coventry).
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This summer is glorious, out enjoying balmy evenings riding my bike.murali_s said:
June 2014 was globally the warmest June ever recorded (records date back to 1880), following the warmest May ever recorded according to NOAA.Richard_Tyndall said:
And unlike most of the global warming models, it has the added benefit of being accurate.Neil said:
Let's just pretend that global warming isn't happening...
If this is what Global Warming looks like, long may it continue
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Shall we bet then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not quite.bigjohnowls said:
So not been most accurate at a GE on main two parties since 2001?TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting the Lib Dem share correct/nearest is an achievement given the Cleggasm.bigjohnowls said:ICM is the Gold Standard (PB rule 1)
ICM was the most accurate at GE2010 (refer to PB rule 1 above)
Well at GE 2010 it understimated Lab by 2% and Con by 1%
ComRes and Populus got the Con % spot on and were both only 2% wrong on Lab. Mori got both main parties within 1%
Despite that PB Rule 1 applies because ICM was less wrong on LD %
Full details on main 2 parties differences between each poll and the actual result?
ICM Guardian: Con -1; Lab -2:
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 0; Lab -2:
Angus Reid/PB: Con -1; Lab -6;
Populus/Times: Con 0; Lab -2;
YouGov/Sun: Con -2; Lab -2;
Harris/Daily Mail: Con -2; Lab -1;
MORI/London Evening Standard: Con -1; Lab -1;
But apparently PB rule 1 is not to be challenged.
Plus ICM were the most accurate at GEs 1997, 2001 and the AV referendum was spot on
Put it this way, from a betting viewpoint, it is very profitable following ICM's Westminster polls.
I'll have £500 at EVS with you that UKIP get over ICMs current 9%
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Yes, David Anderson is absolutely right and the government should change the law as he suggests, in the next parliamentary session.Pulpstar said:I agree with David Anderson here:
David Anderson QC said the legal definition of terrorism was too widely drawn and called on Parliament to revisit the legislation.
"The problem is that our definition has begun to catch people that it was never really intended to catch," Mr Anderson told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.
Just do it, Dave.0 -
The argument is there *was* global warming but it flat-lined 14-ish years ago.murali_s said:
June 2014 was globally the warmest June ever recorded (records date back to 1880), following the warmest May ever recorded according to NOAA.Richard_Tyndall said:
And unlike most of the global warming models, it has the added benefit of being accurate.Neil said:
Let's just pretend that global warming isn't happening...
If you increase the thermostat in a room it goes up to the new temperature and stays there.
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Is this a clever way of undermining the ridiculous Terrorism Act 2006 and forcing Parliament to repeal it?TheScreamingEagles said:
The Times are reporting that the Tory MP has Nadhim Zahwai has contacted the police saying David Ward is encouraging Terrorism as per the Terrorism act of 2006.Patrick said:Noting the hoohah around LibDem David Ward and his comments on bombing Israel makes me wonder: Is an instinctive Anti-Israeli / Anti-Semitic mindset now a default setting on the left? (p.s. this is NOT a pro-Israel post but a genuine question if anyone on the left can now openly voice any pro-Israel opinion without immediately being sent to Coventry).
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FYI Paddy Power is 5-6 on 9.5%+ for UKIP. (5-6 9.5%-)isam said:
Shall we bet then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not quite.bigjohnowls said:
So not been most accurate at a GE on main two parties since 2001?TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting the Lib Dem share correct/nearest is an achievement given the Cleggasm.bigjohnowls said:ICM is the Gold Standard (PB rule 1)
ICM was the most accurate at GE2010 (refer to PB rule 1 above)
Well at GE 2010 it understimated Lab by 2% and Con by 1%
ComRes and Populus got the Con % spot on and were both only 2% wrong on Lab. Mori got both main parties within 1%
Despite that PB Rule 1 applies because ICM was less wrong on LD %
Full details on main 2 parties differences between each poll and the actual result?
ICM Guardian: Con -1; Lab -2:
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 0; Lab -2:
Angus Reid/PB: Con -1; Lab -6;
Populus/Times: Con 0; Lab -2;
YouGov/Sun: Con -2; Lab -2;
Harris/Daily Mail: Con -2; Lab -1;
MORI/London Evening Standard: Con -1; Lab -1;
But apparently PB rule 1 is not to be challenged.
Plus ICM were the most accurate at GEs 1997, 2001 and the AV referendum was spot on
Put it this way, from a betting viewpoint, it is very profitable following ICM's Westminster polls.
I'll have £500 at EVS with you that UKIP get over ICMs current 9%0 -
I missed out a word from my post, it should have read, it is very profitable following ICM's final Westminster polls.isam said:
Shall we bet then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not quite.bigjohnowls said:
So not been most accurate at a GE on main two parties since 2001?TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting the Lib Dem share correct/nearest is an achievement given the Cleggasm.bigjohnowls said:ICM is the Gold Standard (PB rule 1)
ICM was the most accurate at GE2010 (refer to PB rule 1 above)
Well at GE 2010 it understimated Lab by 2% and Con by 1%
ComRes and Populus got the Con % spot on and were both only 2% wrong on Lab. Mori got both main parties within 1%
Despite that PB Rule 1 applies because ICM was less wrong on LD %
Full details on main 2 parties differences between each poll and the actual result?
ICM Guardian: Con -1; Lab -2:
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 0; Lab -2:
Angus Reid/PB: Con -1; Lab -6;
Populus/Times: Con 0; Lab -2;
YouGov/Sun: Con -2; Lab -2;
Harris/Daily Mail: Con -2; Lab -1;
MORI/London Evening Standard: Con -1; Lab -1;
But apparently PB rule 1 is not to be challenged.
Plus ICM were the most accurate at GEs 1997, 2001 and the AV referendum was spot on
Put it this way, from a betting viewpoint, it is very profitable following ICM's Westminster polls.
I'll have £500 at EVS with you that UKIP get over ICMs current 9%
I'll have a bet with you though on this, for £100.
ICM will be the most accurate BPC pollster for UKIP's GB share of the vote at the GE.
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I hope so, I think it is the Tories doing for the publicity/partisan politics.Neil said:
Is this a clever way of undermining the ridiculous Terrorism Act 2006 and forcing Parliament to repeal it?TheScreamingEagles said:
The Times are reporting that the Tory MP has Nadhim Zahwai has contacted the police saying David Ward is encouraging Terrorism as per the Terrorism act of 2006.Patrick said:Noting the hoohah around LibDem David Ward and his comments on bombing Israel makes me wonder: Is an instinctive Anti-Israeli / Anti-Semitic mindset now a default setting on the left? (p.s. this is NOT a pro-Israel post but a genuine question if anyone on the left can now openly voice any pro-Israel opinion without immediately being sent to Coventry).
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I'll have that bet if you accept mineTheScreamingEagles said:
I missed out a word from post, it should have read, it is very profitable following ICM's final Westminster polls.isam said:
Shall we bet then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not quite.bigjohnowls said:
So not been most accurate at a GE on main two parties since 2001?TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting the Lib Dem share correct/nearest is an achievement given the Cleggasm.bigjohnowls said:ICM is the Gold Standard (PB rule 1)
ICM was the most accurate at GE2010 (refer to PB rule 1 above)
Well at GE 2010 it understimated Lab by 2% and Con by 1%
ComRes and Populus got the Con % spot on and were both only 2% wrong on Lab. Mori got both main parties within 1%
Despite that PB Rule 1 applies because ICM was less wrong on LD %
Full details on main 2 parties differences between each poll and the actual result?
ICM Guardian: Con -1; Lab -2:
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 0; Lab -2:
Angus Reid/PB: Con -1; Lab -6;
Populus/Times: Con 0; Lab -2;
YouGov/Sun: Con -2; Lab -2;
Harris/Daily Mail: Con -2; Lab -1;
MORI/London Evening Standard: Con -1; Lab -1;
But apparently PB rule 1 is not to be challenged.
Plus ICM were the most accurate at GEs 1997, 2001 and the AV referendum was spot on
Put it this way, from a betting viewpoint, it is very profitable following ICM's Westminster polls.
I'll have £500 at EVS with you that UKIP get over ICMs current 9%
I'll have a bet with you though on this, for £100.
ICM will be the most accurate BPC pollster for UKIP's GB share of the vote at the GE.0 -
@BigJohnOwls
"Retirement isn't everything is cracked up to be resorted to watching Kojak, Alias Smith and Jones and checking 2001 polling accuracy."
That's rather sad. I'm finding retirement is just like being a child again only better. I can play all day everyday, go on adventures with my friends, have lots more pocket money and there is no mummy telling me to stop and get on with my homework. Retirement is great.0 -
Which are the BPC pollsters ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I missed out a word from post, it should have read, it is very profitable following ICM's final Westminster polls.isam said:
Shall we bet then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not quite.bigjohnowls said:
So not been most accurate at a GE on main two parties since 2001?TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting the Lib Dem share correct/nearest is an achievement given the Cleggasm.bigjohnowls said:ICM is the Gold Standard (PB rule 1)
ICM was the most accurate at GE2010 (refer to PB rule 1 above)
Well at GE 2010 it understimated Lab by 2% and Con by 1%
ComRes and Populus got the Con % spot on and were both only 2% wrong on Lab. Mori got both main parties within 1%
Despite that PB Rule 1 applies because ICM was less wrong on LD %
Full details on main 2 parties differences between each poll and the actual result?
ICM Guardian: Con -1; Lab -2:
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 0; Lab -2:
Angus Reid/PB: Con -1; Lab -6;
Populus/Times: Con 0; Lab -2;
YouGov/Sun: Con -2; Lab -2;
Harris/Daily Mail: Con -2; Lab -1;
MORI/London Evening Standard: Con -1; Lab -1;
But apparently PB rule 1 is not to be challenged.
Plus ICM were the most accurate at GEs 1997, 2001 and the AV referendum was spot on
Put it this way, from a betting viewpoint, it is very profitable following ICM's Westminster polls.
I'll have £500 at EVS with you that UKIP get over ICMs current 9%
I'll have a bet with you though on this, for £100.
ICM will be the most accurate BPC pollster for UKIP's GB share of the vote at the GE.0 -
Good news Kojak got his man and TSE was right overall ICM were most accurate in 1997.
Again as in 2010 they were not the best in respect of the 2 main parties and had the Lab lead over the Tories underestimated by 3% compared to Gallups 1%.
Whatever happened to Gallup?0 -
Yes. The Israelis were dumped into a made up state by the West in an act of wilful negligence based on superstition, displacing the Palestinians who have since been corralled and treated little better than cattle. Why anyone would back Israel is beyond me, it's a psychotic regime.Pulpstar said:
Not sure - Can anyone on the right put forward a pro-Palestinian cause ? (Genuine question - like yours).Patrick said:Noting the hoohah around LibDem David Ward and his comments on bombing Israel makes me wonder: Is an instinctive Anti-Israeli / Anti-Semitic mindset now a default setting on the left? (p.s. this is NOT a pro-Israel post but a genuine question if anyone on the left can now openly voice any pro-Israel opinion without immediately being sent to Coventry).
Shrinking violet left winger @SeanT of this parish is reasonably pro-Palestinian. Is he the exception that proves the rule ?
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It does seem that ICM massively under rate ukip in long term polls then hike it up near the finish, why is that do you think?TheScreamingEagles said:
I missed out a word from my post, it should have read, it is very profitable following ICM's final Westminster polls.isam said:
Shall we bet then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not quite.bigjohnowls said:
So not been most accurate at a GE on main two parties since 2001?TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting the Lib Dem share correct/nearest is an achievement given the Cleggasm.bigjohnowls said:ICM is the Gold Standard (PB rule 1)
ICM was the most accurate at GE2010 (refer to PB rule 1 above)
Well at GE 2010 it understimated Lab by 2% and Con by 1%
ComRes and Populus got the Con % spot on and were both only 2% wrong on Lab. Mori got both main parties within 1%
Despite that PB Rule 1 applies because ICM was less wrong on LD %
Full details on main 2 parties differences between each poll and the actual result?
ICM Guardian: Con -1; Lab -2:
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 0; Lab -2:
Angus Reid/PB: Con -1; Lab -6;
Populus/Times: Con 0; Lab -2;
YouGov/Sun: Con -2; Lab -2;
Harris/Daily Mail: Con -2; Lab -1;
MORI/London Evening Standard: Con -1; Lab -1;
But apparently PB rule 1 is not to be challenged.
Plus ICM were the most accurate at GEs 1997, 2001 and the AV referendum was spot on
Put it this way, from a betting viewpoint, it is very profitable following ICM's Westminster polls.
I'll have £500 at EVS with you that UKIP get over ICMs current 9%
I'll have a bet with you though on this, for £100.
ICM will be the most accurate BPC pollster for UKIP's GB share of the vote at the GE.0 -
I'm not having that bet, because I'm genuinely unsure on what UKIP will poll.isam said:
I'll have that bet if you accept mineTheScreamingEagles said:
I missed out a word from post, it should have read, it is very profitable following ICM's final Westminster polls.isam said:
Shall we bet then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not quite.bigjohnowls said:
So not been most accurate at a GE on main two parties since 2001?TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting the Lib Dem share correct/nearest is an achievement given the Cleggasm.bigjohnowls said:ICM is the Gold Standard (PB rule 1)
ICM was the most accurate at GE2010 (refer to PB rule 1 above)
Well at GE 2010 it understimated Lab by 2% and Con by 1%
ComRes and Populus got the Con % spot on and were both only 2% wrong on Lab. Mori got both main parties within 1%
Despite that PB Rule 1 applies because ICM was less wrong on LD %
Full details on main 2 parties differences between each poll and the actual result?
ICM Guardian: Con -1; Lab -2:
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 0; Lab -2:
Angus Reid/PB: Con -1; Lab -6;
Populus/Times: Con 0; Lab -2;
YouGov/Sun: Con -2; Lab -2;
Harris/Daily Mail: Con -2; Lab -1;
MORI/London Evening Standard: Con -1; Lab -1;
But apparently PB rule 1 is not to be challenged.
Plus ICM were the most accurate at GEs 1997, 2001 and the AV referendum was spot on
Put it this way, from a betting viewpoint, it is very profitable following ICM's Westminster polls.
I'll have £500 at EVS with you that UKIP get over ICMs current 9%
I'll have a bet with you though on this, for £100.
ICM will be the most accurate BPC pollster for UKIP's GB share of the vote at the GE.0 -
Don't you basically have "the field" running for you in this bet ?isam said:
I'll have that bet if you accept mineTheScreamingEagles said:
I missed out a word from post, it should have read, it is very profitable following ICM's final Westminster polls.isam said:
Shall we bet then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not quite.bigjohnowls said:
So not been most accurate at a GE on main two parties since 2001?TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting the Lib Dem share correct/nearest is an achievement given the Cleggasm.bigjohnowls said:ICM is the Gold Standard (PB rule 1)
ICM was the most accurate at GE2010 (refer to PB rule 1 above)
Well at GE 2010 it understimated Lab by 2% and Con by 1%
ComRes and Populus got the Con % spot on and were both only 2% wrong on Lab. Mori got both main parties within 1%
Despite that PB Rule 1 applies because ICM was less wrong on LD %
Full details on main 2 parties differences between each poll and the actual result?
ICM Guardian: Con -1; Lab -2:
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 0; Lab -2:
Angus Reid/PB: Con -1; Lab -6;
Populus/Times: Con 0; Lab -2;
YouGov/Sun: Con -2; Lab -2;
Harris/Daily Mail: Con -2; Lab -1;
MORI/London Evening Standard: Con -1; Lab -1;
But apparently PB rule 1 is not to be challenged.
Plus ICM were the most accurate at GEs 1997, 2001 and the AV referendum was spot on
Put it this way, from a betting viewpoint, it is very profitable following ICM's Westminster polls.
I'll have £500 at EVS with you that UKIP get over ICMs current 9%
I'll have a bet with you though on this, for £100.
ICM will be the most accurate BPC pollster for UKIP's GB share of the vote at the GE.
Populus, Yougov, Survation, Ipson-Mori, Comres, Opinium - therefore isn't the starting point 6-1 ?!
Even if you think ICM will be most accurate isn't Evens to lay them value ?...0 -
What I would say is that people disproportionately on the left slip from an understandable concern for the citizens of the West Bank and Gaza into a condemnation of Israel without taking the picture as a whole. They also announce the suffering of Palestinians as if it is something that British supporters of Israel don't know about or don't care about, when the reality is for many quite far from that.Pulpstar said:
Not sure - Can anyone on the right put forward a pro-Palestinian cause ? (Genuine question - like yours).Patrick said:Noting the hoohah around LibDem David Ward and his comments on bombing Israel makes me wonder: Is an instinctive Anti-Israeli / Anti-Semitic mindset now a default setting on the left? (p.s. this is NOT a pro-Israel post but a genuine question if anyone on the left can now openly voice any pro-Israel opinion without immediately being sent to Coventry).
Shrinking violet left winger @SeanT of this parish is reasonably pro-Palestinian. Is he the exception that proves the rule ?0 -
BPC pollsters herePulpstar said:
Which are the BPC pollsters ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I missed out a word from post, it should have read, it is very profitable following ICM's final Westminster polls.isam said:
Shall we bet then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not quite.bigjohnowls said:
So not been most accurate at a GE on main two parties since 2001?TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting the Lib Dem share correct/nearest is an achievement given the Cleggasm.bigjohnowls said:ICM is the Gold Standard (PB rule 1)
ICM was the most accurate at GE2010 (refer to PB rule 1 above)
Well at GE 2010 it understimated Lab by 2% and Con by 1%
ComRes and Populus got the Con % spot on and were both only 2% wrong on Lab. Mori got both main parties within 1%
Despite that PB Rule 1 applies because ICM was less wrong on LD %
Full details on main 2 parties differences between each poll and the actual result?
ICM Guardian: Con -1; Lab -2:
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 0; Lab -2:
Angus Reid/PB: Con -1; Lab -6;
Populus/Times: Con 0; Lab -2;
YouGov/Sun: Con -2; Lab -2;
Harris/Daily Mail: Con -2; Lab -1;
MORI/London Evening Standard: Con -1; Lab -1;
But apparently PB rule 1 is not to be challenged.
Plus ICM were the most accurate at GEs 1997, 2001 and the AV referendum was spot on
Put it this way, from a betting viewpoint, it is very profitable following ICM's Westminster polls.
I'll have £500 at EVS with you that UKIP get over ICMs current 9%
I'll have a bet with you though on this, for £100.
ICM will be the most accurate BPC pollster for UKIP's GB share of the vote at the GE.
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers.html0 -
For those outside Scotland who want to send an encouraging message to "No" supporters, there a non-partisan thing up which you might like to consider:
https://www.letsstaytogether.org.uk/
Good post. My impression over the years is, as others have said, that ICM's weighting makes it less bouncy because they assume, historically correctly, that people tend to drift back to their old parties). By election day the polls are all pretty similar, as you point out - all those figures except Angus Reid are just MOE variation.bigjohnowls said:ICM is the Gold Standard (PB rule 1)
ICM was the most accurate at GE2010 (refer to PB rule 1 above)
Well at GE 2010 it understimated Lab by 2% and Con by 1%
ComRes and Populus got the Con % spot on and were both only 2% wrong on Lab. Mori got both main parties within 1%
Despite that PB Rule 1 applies because ICM was less wrong on LD %
Full details on main 2 parties differences between each poll and the actual result?
ICM Guardian: Con -1; Lab -2:
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 0; Lab -2:
Angus Reid/PB: Con -1; Lab -6;
Populus/Times: Con 0; Lab -2;
YouGov/Sun: Con -2; Lab -2;
Harris/Daily Mail: Con -2; Lab -1;
MORI/London Evening Standard: Con -1; Lab -1;
But apparently PB rule 1 is not to be challenged.
My reservation about ICM (and Populus) is that their assumptions about drifting back and certainty to vote may well be out in the current climate. The rise of UKIP has put polling in uncharted waters, and any sort of fix to address past problems in assessing responses may be problematic. Specifically, there are almost no "Former UKIP voters" so the adjustment doesn't necessarily pick up people who don't know and will take them as the "change" option, and many LibDem voters seem so disgruntled this time round that I really doubt if they're going to drift back.
0 -
They are back as ORBbigjohnowls said:Good news Kojak got his man and TSE was right overall ICM were most accurate in 1997.
Again as in 2010 they were not the best in respect of the 2 main parties and had the Lab lead over the Tories underestimated by 3% compared to Gallups 1%.
Whatever happened to Gallup?0 -
So am I!TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not having that bet, because I'm genuinely unsure on what UKIP will poll.isam said:
I'll have that bet if you accept mineTheScreamingEagles said:
I missed out a word from post, it should have read, it is very profitable following ICM's final Westminster polls.isam said:
Shall we bet then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not quite.bigjohnowls said:
So not been most accurate at a GE on main two parties since 2001?TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting the Lib Dem share correct/nearest is an achievement given the Cleggasm.bigjohnowls said:ICM is the Gold Standard (PB rule 1)
ICM was the most accurate at GE2010 (refer to PB rule 1 above)
Well at GE 2010 it understimated Lab by 2% and Con by 1%
ComRes and Populus got the Con % spot on and were both only 2% wrong on Lab. Mori got both main parties within 1%
Despite that PB Rule 1 applies because ICM was less wrong on LD %
Full details on main 2 parties differences between each poll and the actual result?
ICM Guardian: Con -1; Lab -2:
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 0; Lab -2:
Angus Reid/PB: Con -1; Lab -6;
Populus/Times: Con 0; Lab -2;
YouGov/Sun: Con -2; Lab -2;
Harris/Daily Mail: Con -2; Lab -1;
MORI/London Evening Standard: Con -1; Lab -1;
But apparently PB rule 1 is not to be challenged.
Plus ICM were the most accurate at GEs 1997, 2001 and the AV referendum was spot on
Put it this way, from a betting viewpoint, it is very profitable following ICM's Westminster polls.
I'll have £500 at EVS with you that UKIP get over ICMs current 9%
I'll have a bet with you though on this, for £100.
ICM will be the most accurate BPC pollster for UKIP's GB share of the vote at the GE.
Let's say £100 on each bet then?0 -
"Hiking up" was done after LEs in 2013...isam said:
It does seem that ICM massively under rate ukip in long term polls then hike it up near the finish, why is that do you think?TheScreamingEagles said:
I missed out a word from my post, it should have read, it is very profitable following ICM's final Westminster polls.isam said:
Shall we bet then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not quite.bigjohnowls said:
So not been most accurate at a GE on main two parties since 2001?TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting the Lib Dem share correct/nearest is an achievement given the Cleggasm.bigjohnowls said:ICM is the Gold Standard (PB rule 1)
ICM was the most accurate at GE2010 (refer to PB rule 1 above)
Well at GE 2010 it understimated Lab by 2% and Con by 1%
ComRes and Populus got the Con % spot on and were both only 2% wrong on Lab. Mori got both main parties within 1%
Despite that PB Rule 1 applies because ICM was less wrong on LD %
Full details on main 2 parties differences between each poll and the actual result?
ICM Guardian: Con -1; Lab -2:
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 0; Lab -2:
Angus Reid/PB: Con -1; Lab -6;
Populus/Times: Con 0; Lab -2;
YouGov/Sun: Con -2; Lab -2;
Harris/Daily Mail: Con -2; Lab -1;
MORI/London Evening Standard: Con -1; Lab -1;
But apparently PB rule 1 is not to be challenged.
Plus ICM were the most accurate at GEs 1997, 2001 and the AV referendum was spot on
Put it this way, from a betting viewpoint, it is very profitable following ICM's Westminster polls.
I'll have £500 at EVS with you that UKIP get over ICMs current 9%
I'll have a bet with you though on this, for £100.
ICM will be the most accurate BPC pollster for UKIP's GB share of the vote at the GE.
And Yougov were more accurate in 2014 Euros.
@TSE £100 is too much for me on that bet but I'll have £20 laying ICM @ Evens that they are the most accurate final BPC pollster for UKIP if you are offering...0 -
That myth has been quashed. See my post at 9.59amisam said:It does seem that ICM massively under rate ukip in long term polls then hike it up near the finish, why is that do you think?
0 -
Pulpstar/isam - Deals.0
-
HardlyTheScreamingEagles said:
That myth has been quashed. See my post at 9.59amisam said:It does seem that ICM massively under rate ukip in long term polls then hike it up near the finish, why is that do you think?
What about the euros? Does that unquash it?!0 -
I know Doncaster races tomorrow, cricket Friday and Saturday and a day at the Commonwealth Games next Tuesday. Today was slightly duller although I did actually enjoy Kojak. I have to make the most of the next 12 monyhs Mrs BJ retires July 2015HurstLlama said:@BigJohnOwls
"Retirement isn't everything is cracked up to be resorted to watching Kojak, Alias Smith and Jones and checking 2001 polling accuracy."
That's rather sad. I'm finding retirement is just like being a child again only better. I can play all day everyday, go on adventures with my friends, have lots more pocket money and there is no mummy telling me to stop and get on with my homework. Retirement is great.0 -
Isam/Pulpstar - Can I make one thing clear.
I'm talking about the final ICM phone poll, not any of their wisdom or online polls.
Is that ok.0 -
Sure - I think they are a great polling company (And probably actually do deserve favouritism), but Evens is a tremendous price to have the field working for me on this one !TheScreamingEagles said:Isam/Pulpstar - Can I make one thing clear.
I'm talking about the final ICM phone poll, not any of their wisdom or online polls.
Is that ok.0 -
Yes, have emailed you confoTheScreamingEagles said:Isam/Pulpstar - Can I make one thing clear.
I'm talking about the final ICM phone poll, not any of their wisdom or online polls.
Is that ok.
0 -
Shadsy on Bradford East (David Ward's seat)
Labour 1/8
LD 5/1
Con 33/1
Respect 33/1
UKIP 66/1
0 -
Cheers.isam said:
Yes, have emailed you confoTheScreamingEagles said:Isam/Pulpstar - Can I make one thing clear.
I'm talking about the final ICM phone poll, not any of their wisdom or online polls.
Is that ok.0 -
9% is a plausible figure for the UKIP vote share next May. It would be almost 3 million votes.
I think it's touch and go whether UKIP outpoll the Lib Dems.0 -
Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
0 -
Guess what, you are wrong again. Go look at the satellite data and you will find that neither May nor June were the warmest on record.murali_s said:
June 2014 was globally the warmest June ever recorded (records date back to 1880), following the warmest May ever recorded according to NOAA.Richard_Tyndall said:
And unlike most of the global warming models, it has the added benefit of being accurate.Neil said:
Let's just pretend that global warming isn't happening...
I pointed this out to you last month when you repeated this idiotic claim and you were strangely silent.
On the two main satellite systems May was either the 3rd or 6th warmest on record. June was the 4th warmest.
Given that everyone knows the world has been warming slowly (and naturally) since the end of the last Maunder minimum it is no surprise that the highest temperatures are the most recent. Of course that says nothing about cause in spite of what the scientifically illiterate like yourself might like to claim.
0 -
Aww crap, just remembered, that Martin Boon of ICM told us that their wisdom poll was the most accurate at the 2010 General Election.0
-
We've already done the conf haven't we - you worried about getting banned ?isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
0 -
I am about to go for a 5k run... Anyone want to guess my time?
Searing essex heat, uphill for 2k downhill for 1.5 then a gradual climb to the finish
0 -
Yes sorry we have... And if I'm banned I can't read the emails anyway!!TGOHF said:
We've already done the conf haven't we - you worried about getting banned ?isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones0 -
The funniest thing would be if I won the bet because of a TNS-BRMB outlier for UKIP on the low sideTheScreamingEagles said:Aww crap, just remembered, that Martin Boon of ICM told us that their wisdom poll was the most accurate at the 2010 General Election.
0 -
And it's on real votes not flaky pollingisam said:
Yes sorry we have... And if I'm banned I can't read the emails anyway!!TGOHF said:
We've already done the conf haven't we - you worried about getting banned ?isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
0 -
Is the exit poll part of BPCTheScreamingEagles said:Aww crap, just remembered, that Martin Boon of ICM told us that their wisdom poll was the most accurate at the 2010 General Election.
?
0 -
On topic:
"Could it be that those oldies currently backing Farage’s party are in good health and are reasonably well off"
Could it be that kippers look backwards rather than forwards?
0 -
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime.
0 -
I'm glad to be tagged scientifically illiterate. Puts me in the same boat as 99% of the world's experts...Richard_Tyndall said:
Guess what, you are wrong again. Go look at the satellite data and you will find that neither May nor June were the warmest on record.murali_s said:
June 2014 was globally the warmest June ever recorded (records date back to 1880), following the warmest May ever recorded according to NOAA.Richard_Tyndall said:
And unlike most of the global warming models, it has the added benefit of being accurate.Neil said:
Let's just pretend that global warming isn't happening...
I pointed this out to you last month when you repeated this idiotic claim and you were strangely silent.
On the two main satellite systems May was either the 3rd or 6th warmest on record. June was the 4th warmest.
Given that everyone knows the world has been warming slowly (and naturally) since the end of the last Maunder minimum it is no surprise that the highest temperatures are the most recent. Of course that says nothing about cause in spite of what the scientifically illiterate like yourself might like to claim.
I'm sorry, I'll always take actual measurements from NOAA and Hadley over satellite data.0 -
Isam,
Prop forward - 25 minutes
Flanker - 23 minutes
Back - 21 minutes0 -
I have the same issue. Herself also packs up "work" next July (she does a couple of hours a day helping out at the local infants school), though hopefully she will carry on with the three afternoons a week she does voluntary charity stuff. Meanwhile, I am about to get a foretaste of what life will be like. The school breaks up today and I fear a multi-page list of things for me to do will be presented in the morning as my wife morphs into being my mother for the next 6 weeks.bigjohnowls said:
I know Doncaster races tomorrow, cricket Friday and Saturday and a day at the Commonwealth Games next Tuesday. Today was slightly duller although I did actually enjoy Kojak. I have to make the most of the next 12 monyhs Mrs BJ retires July 2015HurstLlama said:@BigJohnOwls
"Retirement isn't everything is cracked up to be resorted to watching Kojak, Alias Smith and Jones and checking 2001 polling accuracy."
That's rather sad. I'm finding retirement is just like being a child again only better. I can play all day everyday, go on adventures with my friends, have lots more pocket money and there is no mummy telling me to stop and get on with my homework. Retirement is great.0 -
Or look forwards and don' like what they see.Bond_James_Bond said:On topic:
"Could it be that those oldies currently backing Farage’s party are in good health and are reasonably well off"
Could it be that kippers look backwards rather than forwards?
0 -
Isam,
Forgot to add one ...
Young man who runs in searing heat, overtaking mad dogs and Englishmen - 19 minutes.0 -
Make the most of it. After a superb summer last year and another one this year, we're bound to be back to our usual summer deluge next year.Pulpstar said:
This summer is glorious, out enjoying balmy evenings riding my bike.murali_s said:
June 2014 was globally the warmest June ever recorded (records date back to 1880), following the warmest May ever recorded according to NOAA.Richard_Tyndall said:
And unlike most of the global warming models, it has the added benefit of being accurate.Neil said:
Let's just pretend that global warming isn't happening...
If this is what Global Warming looks like, long may it continue
0 -
Mr. S, you can have science or you can have consensus. What you can't have in any meaningful way is scientific consensus.murali_s said:
I'm glad to be tagged scientifically illiterate. Puts me in the same boat as 99% of the world's experts...Richard_Tyndall said:
Guess what, you are wrong again. Go look at the satellite data and you will find that neither May nor June were the warmest on record.murali_s said:
June 2014 was globally the warmest June ever recorded (records date back to 1880), following the warmest May ever recorded according to NOAA.Richard_Tyndall said:
And unlike most of the global warming models, it has the added benefit of being accurate.Neil said:
Let's just pretend that global warming isn't happening...
I pointed this out to you last month when you repeated this idiotic claim and you were strangely silent.
On the two main satellite systems May was either the 3rd or 6th warmest on record. June was the 4th warmest.
Given that everyone knows the world has been warming slowly (and naturally) since the end of the last Maunder minimum it is no surprise that the highest temperatures are the most recent. Of course that says nothing about cause in spite of what the scientifically illiterate like yourself might like to claim.
I'm sorry, I'll always take actual measurements from NOAA and Hadley over satellite data.0 -
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime.
0 -
Looking back through old threads you come across gems such as this:
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
Follow
Vince Cable's going to have to resign, surely?0 -
Oh, I wont forget that one in a hurry! Havent had such good value since Mark Senior offered me 8/1 on Caroline Lucas retaining her seatTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime.
0 -
Ladbrokes have gone 6-1 on the LD/Green match bet. Are you worriedTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime. ? 0 -
I'm regretting not putting more than £20 quid on.Pulpstar said:
Ladbrokes have gone 6-1 on the LD/Green match bet. Are you worriedTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime. ?
*Innocent face*0 -
Has the last 4 years as leader of the opposition helped create another coalition ?
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/23/ed-miliband-old-new-labour-strategy0 -
Do I look worried?Pulpstar said:
Ladbrokes have gone 6-1 on the LD/Green match bet. Are you worriedTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime. ?
0 -
Whether it's third, fourth or sixth warmest on record is in the noise level.Richard_Tyndall said:
Guess what, you are wrong again. Go look at the satellite data and you will find that neither May nor June were the warmest on record.murali_s said:
June 2014 was globally the warmest June ever recorded (records date back to 1880), following the warmest May ever recorded according to NOAA.Richard_Tyndall said:
And unlike most of the global warming models, it has the added benefit of being accurate.Neil said:
Let's just pretend that global warming isn't happening...
I pointed this out to you last month when you repeated this idiotic claim and you were strangely silent.
On the two main satellite systems May was either the 3rd or 6th warmest on record. June was the 4th warmest.
Given that everyone knows the world has been warming slowly (and naturally) since the end of the last Maunder minimum it is no surprise that the highest temperatures are the most recent. Of course that says nothing about cause in spite of what the scientifically illiterate like yourself might like to claim.
AGW is happening, the evidence is there and is being refined continuously by scientists using what is known as the scientific method ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method ). The vast majority of scientists are not climate change deniers ( http://www.salon.com/2014/03/25/10853_out_of_10855_scientists_agree_man_made_global_warming_is_happening/ ).
The scientific method is designed to work out what is happening based on experimentation. When there are contrary indications experiments are made to see if the results are repeatable.If so the theory is refined. Newton wasn't wrong, but Einstein's work extended our knowledge.
AGW is an important subject and needs to be talked about logically.
0 -
Lol not you :P @TSENeil said:
Do I look worried?Pulpstar said:
Ladbrokes have gone 6-1 on the LD/Green match bet. Are you worriedTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime. ?0 -
Is the Q2 GDP number out tomorrow or Friday?
Q3 GDP should be strong with this hot summer - Sales spending always seems to go up when the weather is nice - Indeed it was last years hot summer that seemed to defrost the frozen green shoots and start kicking things off!0 -
I believe my response is "It's a decent trading bet"Pulpstar said:
Lol not you :P @TSENeil said:
Do I look worried?Pulpstar said:
Ladbrokes have gone 6-1 on the LD/Green match bet. Are you worriedTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime. ?0 -
Oh haha - ye Now I remember you were backing the greens here.TheScreamingEagles said:
I believe my response is "It's a decent trading bet"Pulpstar said:
Lol not you :P @TSENeil said:
Do I look worried?Pulpstar said:
Ladbrokes have gone 6-1 on the LD/Green match bet. Are you worriedTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime. ?
0 -
While I wouldn't consider myself "on the left", my view is that Israel, like any sovereign nation, has the right to defend its borders and its people - no argument. I do have issues about the scale of the measures taken to enforce that.Patrick said:Noting the hoohah around LibDem David Ward and his comments on bombing Israel makes me wonder: Is an instinctive Anti-Israeli / Anti-Semitic mindset now a default setting on the left? (p.s. this is NOT a pro-Israel post but a genuine question if anyone on the left can now openly voice any pro-Israel opinion without immediately being sent to Coventry).
0 -
Sure you might as well just send me the cash now.TheScreamingEagles said:
I believe my response is "It's a decent trading bet"Pulpstar said:
Lol not you :P @TSENeil said:
Do I look worried?Pulpstar said:
Ladbrokes have gone 6-1 on the LD/Green match bet. Are you worriedTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime. ?
0 -
A positive article for Ed Miliband and the most liked comments are positive for him.Yorkcity said:Has the last 4 years as leader of the opposition helped create another coalition ?
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/23/ed-miliband-old-new-labour-strategy
Crikey !0 -
NHS publishes its consolidated accounts.
Acute FT sector is fooked financially.
2013/14 Acute FTs
£m
Income (less impairment reversals) 29,755
Expenditure before depreciation and impairment (28,325)
Depreciation and amortisation (879)
Impairments (net of reversals) (160)
Net finance costs (661)
Gains/(losses) from transfers by absorption 65
Other (1)
Surplus / (deficit) for the year (206)
Number of trusts 83
£206M defecit between 83 Foundation Trust Hospitals.
This is not sustainable the NHS Acute sector ie your local A&E hospital has been squeezed so hard in the last 4 years that despite pay freezes and massive increases in numbers of patients treated it has gone from a £500m surplus in 2010/11 to a £200m loss in 2013/14.0 -
Need I remind you, just two months ago, in a nationwide election the Greens outpolled the Lib Dems.Neil said:
Sure you might as well just send me the cash now.TheScreamingEagles said:
I believe my response is "It's a decent trading bet"Pulpstar said:
Lol not you :P @TSENeil said:
Do I look worried?Pulpstar said:
Ladbrokes have gone 6-1 on the LD/Green match bet. Are you worriedTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime. ?0 -
Want to increase the stake?TheScreamingEagles said:
Need I remind you, just two months ago, in a nationwide election the Greens outpolled the Lib Dems.Neil said:
Sure you might as well just send me the cash now.TheScreamingEagles said:
I believe my response is "It's a decent trading bet"Pulpstar said:
Lol not you :P @TSENeil said:
Do I look worried?Pulpstar said:
Ladbrokes have gone 6-1 on the LD/Green match bet. Are you worriedTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime. ?
0 -
By the way the NHS now has to count its Charitable Income as part of its consolidated income position. ie your donations to a hospital charity now accounted for in its NHS accounts.0
-
TheScreamingEagles said:
Need I remind you, just two months ago, in a nationwide election the Greens outpolled the Lib Dems.Neil said:
Sure you might as well just send me the cash now.TheScreamingEagles said:
I believe my response is "It's a decent trading bet"Pulpstar said:
Lol not you :P @TSENeil said:
Do I look worried?Pulpstar said:
Ladbrokes have gone 6-1 on the LD/Green match bet. Are you worriedTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime. ?
European elections are OK thoughTheScreamingEagles said:
It's not wise to compare Westminster VI polls with actual locals votes or NNESV ? 0 -
No, if I stake any more I'll be taking advantage of you.Neil said:
Want to increase the stake?TheScreamingEagles said:
Need I remind you, just two months ago, in a nationwide election the Greens outpolled the Lib Dems.Neil said:
Sure you might as well just send me the cash now.TheScreamingEagles said:
I believe my response is "It's a decent trading bet"Pulpstar said:
Lol not you :P @TSENeil said:
Do I look worried?Pulpstar said:
Ladbrokes have gone 6-1 on the LD/Green match bet. Are you worriedTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime. ?0 -
Interesting - Are you a CIPFA man btw ?bigjohnowls said:By the way the NHS now has to count its Charitable Income as part of its consolidated income position. ie your donations to a hospital charity now accounted for in its NHS accounts.
0 -
Yes, when discussing minor parties.Pulpstar said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Need I remind you, just two months ago, in a nationwide election the Greens outpolled the Lib Dems.Neil said:
Sure you might as well just send me the cash now.TheScreamingEagles said:
I believe my response is "It's a decent trading bet"Pulpstar said:
Lol not you :P @TSENeil said:
Do I look worried?Pulpstar said:
Ladbrokes have gone 6-1 on the LD/Green match bet. Are you worriedTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime. ?
European elections are OK thoughTheScreamingEagles said:
It's not wise to compare Westminster VI polls with actual locals votes or NNESV ?0 -
A deficit of 0.7%.bigjohnowls said:NHS publishes its consolidated accounts.
Acute FT sector is fooked financially.
2013/14 Acute FTs
£m
Income (less impairment reversals) 29,755
Expenditure before depreciation and impairment (28,325)
Depreciation and amortisation (879)
Impairments (net of reversals) (160)
Net finance costs (661)
Gains/(losses) from transfers by absorption 65
Other (1)
Surplus / (deficit) for the year (206)
Number of trusts 83
£206M defecit between 83 Foundation Trust Hospitals.
They overspent by £7 in every £1000. Hardly the end of civilised life as we know it, but further action to improve efficiency is required. Luckily progress is being made, carrying on from Andy Burnham's good work in making use of private providers to drive down costs and improve quality.0 -
I think your bet may well have a chance if Westminster VI was proportional, but all the Euro-Greens I know are voting Labour at the GE.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, when discussing minor parties.Pulpstar said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Need I remind you, just two months ago, in a nationwide election the Greens outpolled the Lib Dems.Neil said:
Sure you might as well just send me the cash now.TheScreamingEagles said:
I believe my response is "It's a decent trading bet"Pulpstar said:
Lol not you :P @TSENeil said:
Do I look worried?Pulpstar said:
Ladbrokes have gone 6-1 on the LD/Green match bet. Are you worriedTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime. ?
European elections are OK thoughTheScreamingEagles said:
It's not wise to compare Westminster VI polls with actual locals votes or NNESV ?0 -
we have one, Sam - UKIP above/below 10% at GE2015 @ 10p/bps.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
I will email you if I can get it to work.0 -
It would have more of a chance if there was a prospect of the Greens fielding anything close to a full slate too! Still, £20 at 20/1 is hardly going to break the bank. Anyone else willing to follow in is more than welcome!Pulpstar said:
I think your bet may well have a chance if Westminster VI was proportional, but all the Euro-Greens I know are voting Labour at the GE.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, when discussing minor parties.Pulpstar said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Need I remind you, just two months ago, in a nationwide election the Greens outpolled the Lib Dems.Neil said:
Sure you might as well just send me the cash now.TheScreamingEagles said:
I believe my response is "It's a decent trading bet"Pulpstar said:
Lol not you :P @TSENeil said:
Do I look worried?Pulpstar said:
Ladbrokes have gone 6-1 on the LD/Green match bet. Are you worriedTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll message you our bet as well.Neil said:
Done.isam said:Anyone I've has bets with for next year, can you email me on here confirmation please?
I think it's @antifrank @johnohersham @neil @tim @tse @tgohf @rcs1000
@mikesmithson didn't have the cojones
Well, I've messaged you with what I *think* our bets were. I really must write these things down somewhere sometime. ?
European elections are OK thoughTheScreamingEagles said:
It's not wise to compare Westminster VI polls with actual locals votes or NNESV ?
0
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